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Merge branch 'main' into cpmm

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mantikoros 2022-03-08 11:45:30 -06:00
commit d1b510c720
4 changed files with 95 additions and 50 deletions
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18
common/util/promise.ts Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
export const batchedWaitAll = async <T>(
createPromises: (() => Promise<T>)[],
batchSize = 10
) => {
const numBatches = Math.ceil(createPromises.length / batchSize)
const result: T[] = []
for (let batchIndex = 0; batchIndex < numBatches; batchIndex++) {
const from = batchIndex * batchSize
const to = from + batchSize
const promises = createPromises.slice(from, to).map((f) => f())
const batch = await Promise.all(promises)
result.push(...batch)
}
return result
}

5
functions/src/update-contract-metrics.ts
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@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import * as _ from 'lodash'
import { getValues } from './utils'
import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
import { batchedWaitAll } from '../../common/util/promise'
const firestore = admin.firestore()
@ -17,8 +18,8 @@ export const updateContractMetrics = functions.pubsub
firestore.collection('contracts')
)
await Promise.all(
contracts.map(async (contract) => {
await batchedWaitAll(
contracts.map((contract) => async () => {
const volume24Hours = await computeVolumeFrom(contract, oneDay)
const volume7Days = await computeVolumeFrom(contract, oneDay * 7)

5
functions/src/update-user-metrics.ts
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@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
import { User } from '../../common/user'
import { calculateDpmPayout } from '../../common/calculate-dpm'
import { batchedWaitAll } from '../../common/util/promise'
const firestore = admin.firestore()
@ -22,8 +23,8 @@ export const updateUserMetrics = functions.pubsub
contracts.map((contract) => [contract.id, contract])
)
await Promise.all(
users.map(async (user) => {
await batchedWaitAll(
users.map((user) => async () => {
const [investmentValue, creatorVolume] = await Promise.all([
computeInvestmentValue(user, contractsDict),
computeTotalPool(user, contractsDict),

117
web/pages/about.tsx
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@ -118,6 +118,13 @@ function Contents() {
</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>
More questions? Check out{' '}
<a href="https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/">
this community-driven FAQ
</a>
!
</p>
<h3 id="can-prediction-markets-work-without-real-money-">
Can prediction markets work without real money?
</h3>
@ -148,6 +155,40 @@ function Contents() {
</a>
.
</p>
<h3 id="why-is-this-important-">Why is this important?</h3>
<p>
Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would
not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can
influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to
scientific research and education.
</p>
<p>
Prediction markets can predict{' '}
<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343">
which research papers will replicate
</a>
; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most
tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or which startup idea is
the most promising. By surfacing and quantifying our collective
knowledge, we as a society become wiser.
</p>
<h3 id="how-does-betting-work">How does betting work?</h3>
<ul>
<li>Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome.</li>
<li>
Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO. The trader receives some
shares of the betting pool. The number of shares depends on the
current probability.
</li>
<li>
When the market is resolved, the traders who bet on the correct
outcome are paid out of the final pool in proportion to the number of
shares they own.
</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="how-are-markets-resolved-">How are markets resolved?</h3>
<p>
The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns{' '}
@ -166,29 +207,9 @@ function Contents() {
or even personal. (E.g. &quot;Will I enjoy participating in the
Metaverse in 2023?&quot;)
</p>
<h3 id="why-is-this-important-">Why is this important?</h3>
<p>
Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would
not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can
influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to
scientific research and education.
</p>
<p>
Prediction markets can predict{' '}
<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343">
which research papers will replicate
</a>
; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most
tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or, which startup idea
is the most promising.
</p>
<p>
By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society
become wiser.
</p>
<h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
{/* <h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind?
</h3>
</h3> */}
{/* <p>
We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin
in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency
@ -199,28 +220,13 @@ function Contents() {
carefully and can&#39;t rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts.
The result is more accurate predictions.
</p> */}
<p>
{/* <p>
Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to
quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power
to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own
judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number,
variety, and usefulness of prediction markets.
</p>
<h3 id="how-does-betting-work">How does betting work?</h3>
<ul>
<li>Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome.</li>
<li>
Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO. The trader receives some
shares of the betting pool. The number of shares depends on the
current probability.
</li>
<li>
When the market is resolved, the traders who bet on the correct
outcome are paid out of the final pool in proportion to the number of
shares they own.
</li>
</ul>
</p> */}
<h3 id="type-of-market-maker">What kind of betting system do you use?</h3>
<p>
@ -249,6 +255,20 @@ function Contents() {
to find out more!
</p>
<h3 id="private-markets">Can I create private markets?</h3>
<p>
Soon! We're running a pilot version of Manifold for Teams - private
Manifold instances where you can discuss internal topics and predict on
outcomes for your organization.
</p>
<p>
If this sounds like something you’d want,{' '}
<a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfM_rxRHemCjKE6KPiYXGyP2nBSInZNKn_wc7yS1-rvlLAVnA/viewform?usp=sf_link">
join the waitlist here
</a>
!
</p>
<h3 id="who-are-we-">Who are we?</h3>
<p>Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:</p>
<ul>
@ -296,19 +316,24 @@ function Contents() {
<h2 id="further-reading">Further Reading</h2>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/">
An in-depth, unofficial FAQ by Isaac King
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5">
Technical Guide to Manifold Markets
How Manifold's market maker works
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems">
Scott Alexander on play-money prediction markets
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://sideways-view.com/2019/10/27/prediction-markets-for-internet-points/">
Paul Christiano: Prediction markets for internet points
</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/02/covid-prediction-markets-at-polymarket/">
Zvi Mowshowitz on resolving prediction markets
Paul Christiano on prediction markets for internet points
</a>
</li>
</ul>