simulator: quadratic price function, random bets, change table cols
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mantikoros
parent
45640feb81
commit
cfd2f22254
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@ -17,16 +17,16 @@ function makeWeights(bids: Bid[]) {
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const weights = []
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let yesPot = 0
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let noPot = 0
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// First pass: calculate all the weights
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for (const { yesBid, noBid } of bids) {
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const yesWeight =
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noPot * (Math.log(yesBid + yesPot) - Math.log(yesPot)) || 0
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const noWeight = yesPot * (Math.log(noBid + noPot) - Math.log(noPot)) || 0
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const yesWeight = yesBid * Math.pow(noPot, 2) / (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + yesBid * yesPot) || 0
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const noWeight = noBid * Math.pow(yesPot, 2) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + noBid * noPot) || 0
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// Note: Need to calculate weights BEFORE updating pot
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yesPot += yesBid
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noPot += noBid
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const prob = yesPot / (yesPot + noPot)
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const prob = Math.pow(yesPot, 2) / (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + Math.pow(noPot, 2))
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weights.push({
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yesBid,
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@ -42,13 +42,16 @@ function makeWeights(bids: Bid[]) {
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export function makeEntries(bids: Bid[]): Entry[] {
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const YES_SEED = bids[0].yesBid
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const NO_SEED = bids[0].noBid
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const weights = makeWeights(bids)
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const yesPot = weights.reduce((sum, { yesBid }) => sum + yesBid, 0)
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const noPot = weights.reduce((sum, { noBid }) => sum + noBid, 0)
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const yesWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.yesWeight, 0)
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const noWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.noWeight, 0)
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// Second pass: calculate all the payouts
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const entries: Entry[] = []
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for (const weight of weights) {
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const { yesBid, noBid, yesWeight, noWeight } = weight
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// Payout: You get your initial bid back, as well as your share of the
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@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
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import React, { useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react'
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import { Line } from 'react-chartjs-2'
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import {
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CategoryScale,
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Chart,
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@ -9,8 +10,7 @@ import {
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Tooltip,
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Legend,
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} from 'chart.js'
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import { Line } from 'react-chartjs-2'
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import { bids as sampleBids } from '../../lib/simulator/sample-bids'
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import { Entry, makeEntries } from '../../lib/simulator/entries'
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import { Header } from '../../components/header'
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@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ function TableBody(props: { entries: Entry[] }) {
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<tbody>
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{props.entries.map((entry, i) => (
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<tr key={i}>
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<th>{i + 1}</th>
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<th>{props.entries.length - i}</th>
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<TableRowStart entry={entry} />
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<TableRowEnd entry={entry} />
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</tr>
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@ -46,10 +46,10 @@ function TableRowStart(props: { entry: Entry }) {
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return (
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<>
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<td>
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<div className="badge">SEED</div>
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<div className="badge">ANTE</div>
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</td>
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<td>
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{entry.yesBid} / {entry.noBid}
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${entry.yesBid} / ${entry.noBid}
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</td>
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</>
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)
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@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ function TableRowStart(props: { entry: Entry }) {
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<td>
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<div className="badge badge-success">YES</div>
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</td>
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<td>{entry.yesBid}</td>
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<td>${entry.yesBid}</td>
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</>
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)
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} else {
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@ -68,48 +68,56 @@ function TableRowStart(props: { entry: Entry }) {
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<td>
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<div className="badge badge-error">NO</div>
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</td>
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<td>{entry.noBid}</td>
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<td>${entry.noBid}</td>
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</>
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)
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}
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}
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function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null }) {
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function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null, isNew?: boolean }) {
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const { entry } = props
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if (!entry) {
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return (
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<>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>0</td>
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<td>0</td>
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{!props.isNew && <>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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</>}
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</>
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)
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} else if (entry.yesBid && entry.noBid) {
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return (
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<>
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<td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>{entry.prob.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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{!props.isNew && <>
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<td>N/A</td>
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<td>N/A</td>
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</>}
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</>
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)
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} else if (entry.yesBid) {
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return (
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<>
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<td>{entry.yesWeight.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>{entry.prob.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>{entry.yesPayout.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>{(entry.yesReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%</td>
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<td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
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<td>${(entry.yesBid + entry.yesWeight).toFixed(0)}</td>
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{!props.isNew && <>
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<td>${entry.yesPayout.toFixed(0)}</td>
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<td>{(entry.yesReturn * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
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</>}
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</>
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)
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} else {
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return (
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<>
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<td>{entry.noWeight.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>{entry.prob.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>{entry.noPayout.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td>{(entry.noReturn * 100).toFixed(2)}%</td>
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<td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
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<td>${(entry.noBid + entry.noWeight).toFixed(0)}</td>
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{!props.isNew && <>
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<td>${entry.noPayout.toFixed(0)}</td>
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<td>{(entry.noReturn * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
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</>}
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</>
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)
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}
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@ -142,30 +150,39 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
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setNewBid(0)
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}
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function toggleBidType() {
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setNewBidType(newBidType === 'YES' ? 'NO' : 'YES')
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}
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let nextEntry: Entry | null = null
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const nextBid = makeBid(newBidType, newBid)
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const fakeBids = [...bids.slice(0, steps), nextBid]
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const entries = makeEntries(fakeBids)
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const nextEntry = entries[entries.length - 1]
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if (newBid) {
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const nextBid = makeBid(newBidType, newBid)
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const fakeBids = [...bids.slice(0, steps), nextBid]
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const entries = makeEntries(fakeBids)
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nextEntry = entries[entries.length - 1]
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function randomBid() {
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const bidType = Math.random() < 0.5
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? 'YES'
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: 'NO'
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const amount = Math.round(Math.random() * 500)
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const bid = makeBid(bidType, amount)
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bids.splice(steps, 0, bid)
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setBids(bids)
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setSteps(steps + 1)
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setNewBid(0)
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}
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return (
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return <>
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<table className="table table-compact my-8 w-full text-center">
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<thead>
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<tr>
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<th>Order #</th>
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<th>Type</th>
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<th>Bid</th>
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<th>Weight</th>
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<th>Bet</th>
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<th>Prob</th>
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<th>Payout</th>
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<th>Return</th>
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<th>Est Payout</th>
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<th></th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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@ -200,7 +217,7 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
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placeholder="0"
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className="input input-bordered"
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style={{ maxWidth: 100 }}
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value={newBid}
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value={newBid.toString()}
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onChange={(e) => setNewBid(parseInt(e.target.value) || 0)}
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onKeyUp={(e) => {
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if (e.key === 'Enter') {
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@ -210,7 +227,12 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
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onFocus={(e) => e.target.select()}
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/>
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</td>
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<TableRowEnd entry={nextEntry} />
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<TableRowEnd
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entry={nextEntry}
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isNew
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/>
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<td>
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<button
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className="btn btn-primary"
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@ -219,26 +241,37 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
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>
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Submit
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</button>
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</td>
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</tr>
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</tbody>
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</table>
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)
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<button
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className="btn btn-secondary mb-4"
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onClick={randomBid}
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>
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Random bet!
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</button>
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</>
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}
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// Show a hello world React page
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export default function Simulator() {
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const [steps, setSteps] = useState(10)
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const [bids, setBids] = useState(sampleBids)
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const [steps, setSteps] = useState(1)
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const [bids, setBids] = useState([{ yesBid: 600, noBid: 400 }])
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const entries = useMemo(
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() => makeEntries(bids.slice(0, steps)),
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[bids, steps]
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)
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const reversedEntries = [...entries].reverse()
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const probs = entries.map((entry) => entry.prob)
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const chartData = {
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labels: Array.from({ length: steps }, (_, i) => i + 1),
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labels: Array.from({ length: steps }, (_, i) => 1 + i),
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datasets: [
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{
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label: 'Implied probability',
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@ -257,16 +290,7 @@ export default function Simulator() {
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<h1 className="text-2xl font-bold mb-8">
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Dynamic Parimutuel Market Simulator
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</h1>
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{/* Range slider that sets the current step */}
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<label>Simulation step: {steps}</label>
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<input
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type="range"
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className="range"
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min="1"
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max={bids.length}
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value={steps}
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onChange={(e) => setSteps(parseInt(e.target.value))}
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/>
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<NewBidTable {...{ steps, bids, setSteps, setBids }} />
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@ -277,15 +301,15 @@ export default function Simulator() {
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<tr>
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<th>Order #</th>
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<th>Type</th>
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<th>Bid</th>
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<th>Weight</th>
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<th>Bet</th>
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<th>Prob</th>
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<th>Max Payout</th>
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<th>Est Payout</th>
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<th>Payout</th>
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<th>Return</th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<TableBody entries={entries} />
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<TableBody entries={reversedEntries} />
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</table>
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</div>
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</div>
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@ -297,6 +321,16 @@ export default function Simulator() {
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<div className="badge badge-success text-2xl h-8 w-18">YES</div>
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</h1>
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<Line data={chartData} height={200} />
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{/* Range slider that sets the current step */}
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<label>Orders # 1 - {steps}</label>
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<input
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type="range"
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className="range"
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min="1"
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max={bids.length}
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value={steps}
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onChange={(e) => setSteps(parseInt(e.target.value))}
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/>
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</div>
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</div>
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</div>
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