open.source/manifold
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

initial commit

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
mantikoros 2022-01-11 00:16:44 -06:00
parent 6ef48af085
commit c844e1b694
8 changed files with 106 additions and 144 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

19
common/antes.ts
View File

@ -1,19 +1,14 @@
export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 200
export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante?: number) => {
export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante = 0) => {
const p = initialProbInt / 100.0
const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + (ante || 0)
const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + ante
const poolYes =
p === 0.5
? p * totalAnte
: -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p)
const sharesYes = Math.sqrt(p * totalAnte ** 2)
const sharesNo = Math.sqrt(totalAnte ** 2 - sharesYes ** 2)
const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes
const poolYes = p * ante
const poolNo = (1 - p) * ante
const f = PHANTOM_ANTE / totalAnte
const startYes = f * poolYes
const startNo = f * poolNo
return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo }
return { sharesYes, sharesNo, poolYes, poolNo }
}

160
common/calculate.ts
View File

@ -2,37 +2,80 @@ import { Bet } from './bet'
import { Contract } from './contract'
import { FEES } from './fees'
export const blah = () => 999
export const getProbability = (pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) => {
const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
return numerator / denominator
export function getProbability(totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }) {
const { YES: y, NO: n } = totalShares
return y ** 2 / (y ** 2 + n ** 2)
}
export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
bet: number
) {
const [YES, NO] = [
pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
]
const shares = calculateShares(totalShares, bet, outcome)
const [YES, NO] =
outcome === 'YES'
? [totalShares.YES + shares, totalShares.NO]
: [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO + shares]
return getProbability({ YES, NO })
}
export function calculateShares(
pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
bet: number,
betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
) {
const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO]
const c = 2 * bet * Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
return betChoice === 'YES'
? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool)
: bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool)
? Math.sqrt(bet ** 2 + yesShares ** 2 + c) - yesShares
: Math.sqrt(bet ** 2 + noShares ** 2 + c) - noShares
}
export function calculateRawShareValue(
totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
shares: number,
betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
) {
const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO]
const currentValue = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
const postSaleValue =
betChoice === 'YES'
? Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, yesShares - shares) ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
: Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + Math.max(0, noShares - shares) ** 2)
return currentValue - postSaleValue
}
export function calculateMoneyRatio(contract: Contract) {
const { totalShares, pool } = contract
const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO]
const actual = pool.YES + pool.NO
const expected = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
return actual / expected
}
export function calculateShareValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const shareValue = calculateRawShareValue(
contract.totalShares,
bet.shares,
bet.outcome
)
const f = calculateMoneyRatio(contract)
const myPool = contract.pool[bet.outcome]
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
return adjShareValue
}
export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
return (1 - FEES) * calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
}
export function calculatePayout(
@ -40,19 +83,31 @@ export function calculatePayout(
bet: Bet,
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
) {
const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return calculateCancelPayout(contract, bet)
if (outcome === 'MKT') return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet)
return calculateStandardPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
}
export function calculateCancelPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const totalBets = contract.totalBets.YES + contract.totalBets.NO
const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
return (bet.amount / totalBets) * pool
}
export function calculateStandardPayout(
contract: Contract,
bet: Bet,
outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
) {
const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
@ -64,22 +119,7 @@ export function calculatePayout(
}
export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const { amount, outcome, shares } = bet
const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
const truePool = amount + contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
const totalBetsOutcome = totalBets[outcome] + amount
const totalSharesOutcome = totalShares[outcome] + shares
if (totalBetsOutcome >= truePool)
return (amount / totalBetsOutcome) * truePool
const total = totalSharesOutcome - totalBetsOutcome
const winningsPool = truePool - totalBetsOutcome
return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
return calculateStandardPayout(contract, bet, bet.outcome)
}
function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
@ -88,8 +128,7 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const weightedTotal =
p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO
const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
@ -123,44 +162,3 @@ export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
}
export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
const { shares, outcome } = bet
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
const shareValue =
outcome === 'YES'
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
(n ** 2 +
s * y +
y ** 2 -
Math.sqrt(
n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
)) /
(2 * y)
: (y ** 2 +
s * n +
n ** 2 -
Math.sqrt(
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
)) /
(2 * n)
const startPool = yesStart + noStart
const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
return saleAmount
}

10
common/new-bet.ts
View File

@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
import { Bet } from './bet'
import { calculateShares, getProbability } from './calculate'
import { Contract } from './contract'
import { User } from './user'
@ -16,10 +17,7 @@ export const getNewBetInfo = (
? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount }
const shares =
outcome === 'YES'
? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
: amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
const shares = calculateShares(contract.totalShares, amount, outcome)
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
@ -35,8 +33,8 @@ export const getNewBetInfo = (
? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount }
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
const probBefore = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
const probAfter = getProbability(newTotalShares)
const newBet: Bet = {
id: newBetId,

10
common/new-contract.ts
View File

@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ export function getNewContract(
ante?: number,
closeTime?: number
) {
const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
const { sharesYes, sharesNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
initialProb,
ante
)
@ -29,10 +29,10 @@ export function getNewContract(
question: question.trim(),
description: description.trim(),
startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
startPool: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
pool: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
totalShares: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
totalBets: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
totalShares: { YES: sharesYes, NO: sharesNo },
totalBets: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
isResolved: false,
createdTime: Date.now(),
@ -46,3 +46,5 @@ export function getNewContract(
return contract
}
function getAnteBets() {}

4
common/payouts.ts
View File

@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
import { Bet } from './bet'
import { getProbability } from './calculate'
import { Contract } from './contract'
import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
@ -58,8 +59,7 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
contract: Contract,
bets: Bet[]
) => {
const p =
contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', truePool)
const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')

42
common/sell-bet.ts
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
import { Bet } from './bet'
import { calculateShareValue, getProbability } from './calculate'
import { Contract } from './contract'
import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from './fees'
import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
import { User } from './user'
export const getSellBetInfo = (
@ -12,40 +13,10 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
const shareValue =
outcome === 'YES'
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
(n ** 2 +
s * y +
y ** 2 -
Math.sqrt(
n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
)) /
(2 * y)
: (y ** 2 +
s * n +
n ** 2 -
Math.sqrt(
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
)) /
(2 * n)
const startPool = yesStart + noStart
const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
const adjShareValue = calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
const newPool =
outcome === 'YES'
@ -62,10 +33,11 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount }
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
const probBefore = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
const probAfter = getProbability(newTotalShares)
const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue
const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
console.log(
'SELL M$',
@ -73,8 +45,6 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
outcome,
'for M$',
saleAmount,
'M$/share:',
f,
'creator fee: M$',
creatorFee
)

3
functions/src/resolve-market.ts
View File

@ -61,8 +61,7 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
const bets = betsSnap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
const openBets = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
const payouts =
outcome === 'CANCEL'

2
web/components/bet-panel.tsx
View File

@ -94,7 +94,7 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
const initialProb = getProbability(contract.pool)
const resultProb = getProbabilityAfterBet(
contract.pool,
contract.totalShares,
betChoice,
betAmount ?? 0
)