Merge branch 'main' into stripe

2022-01-07 13:36:56 -06:00 · 2022-01-07 13:36:56 -06:00 · b4a22ba4a1
commit b4a22ba4a1
parent edf9d38df3 e3800de2ad
75 changed files with 3534 additions and 729 deletions
--- a/.firebaserc
+++ b/.firebaserc
@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 {
  "projects": {
-    "default": "mantic-markets"
+    "default": "mantic-markets",
+    "prod": "mantic-markets",
+    "dev": "dev-mantic-markets"
  }
-}
+}
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@ -1,2 +1,3 @@
 # mantic
-Mantic Markets
+
+Manifold Markets
--- a/firestore.rules
+++ b/firestore.rules
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+rules_version = '2';
+
+service cloud.firestore {
+  match /databases/{database}/documents {
+
+    match /users/{userId} {
+      allow read;
+      allow create: if request.auth != null;
+    }
+
+    match /contracts/{contractId} {
+      allow read;
+      allow delete: if resource.data.creatorId == request.auth.uid;
+    }
+
+    match /contracts/{contractId}/bets/{betId} {
+      allow read;
+    }
+
+    match /{somePath=**}/bets/{betId} {
+      allow read;
+    }
+
+    match /contracts/{contractId}/comments/{commentId} {
+      allow read;
+      allow create: if request.auth != null;
+    }
+
+    match /{somePath=**}/comments/{commentId} {
+      allow read;
+    }
+
+  }
+}
--- a/functions/package.json
+++ b/functions/package.json
@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
  "name": "functions",
  "scripts": {
    "build": "tsc",
+    "watch": "tsc -w",
    "serve": "yarn build && firebase emulators:start --only functions",
    "shell": "yarn build && firebase functions:shell",
    "start": "yarn shell",
@ -17,9 +18,11 @@
    "firebase-admin": "10.0.0",
    "firebase-functions": "3.16.0",
    "lodash": "4.17.21",
+    "mailgun-js": "0.22.0",
    "stripe": "8.194.0"
  },
  "devDependencies": {
+    "@types/mailgun-js": "0.22.12",
    "firebase-functions-test": "0.3.3",
    "typescript": "4.5.3"
  },
--- a/functions/src/create-contract.ts
+++ b/functions/src/create-contract.ts
@ -0,0 +1,152 @@
+import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+
+import { randomString } from './util/random-string'
+import { slugify } from './util/slugify'
+import { Contract } from './types/contract'
+import { getUser } from './utils'
+import { payUser } from '.'
+import { User } from './types/user'
+
+export const createContract = functions
+  .runWith({ minInstances: 1 })
+  .https.onCall(
+    async (
+      data: {
+        question: string
+        description: string
+        initialProb: number
+        ante?: number
+        closeTime?: number
+      },
+      context
+    ) => {
+      const userId = context?.auth?.uid
+      if (!userId) return { status: 'error', message: 'Not authorized' }
+
+      const creator = await getUser(userId)
+      if (!creator) return { status: 'error', message: 'User not found' }
+
+      const { question, description, initialProb, ante, closeTime } = data
+
+      if (!question || !initialProb)
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'Missing contract attributes' }
+
+      if (ante !== undefined && (ante < 0 || ante > creator.balance))
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid ante' }
+
+      console.log(
+        'creating contract for',
+        creator.username,
+        'on',
+        question,
+        'ante:',
+        ante || 0
+      )
+
+      const slug = await getSlug(question)
+
+      const contractRef = firestore.collection('contracts').doc()
+
+      const contract = getNewContract(
+        contractRef.id,
+        slug,
+        creator,
+        question,
+        description,
+        initialProb,
+        ante,
+        closeTime
+      )
+
+      if (ante) await payUser([creator.id, -ante])
+
+      await contractRef.create(contract)
+      return { status: 'success', contract }
+    }
+  )
+
+const getSlug = async (question: string) => {
+  const proposedSlug = slugify(question).substring(0, 35)
+
+  const preexistingContract = await getContractFromSlug(proposedSlug)
+
+  return preexistingContract
+    ? proposedSlug + '-' + randomString()
+    : proposedSlug
+}
+
+function getNewContract(
+  id: string,
+  slug: string,
+  creator: User,
+  question: string,
+  description: string,
+  initialProb: number,
+  ante?: number,
+  closeTime?: number
+) {
+  const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
+    initialProb,
+    ante
+  )
+
+  const contract: Contract = {
+    id,
+    slug,
+    outcomeType: 'BINARY',
+
+    creatorId: creator.id,
+    creatorName: creator.name,
+    creatorUsername: creator.username,
+
+    question: question.trim(),
+    description: description.trim(),
+
+    startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
+    pool: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
+    totalShares: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
+    totalBets: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
+    isResolved: false,
+
+    createdTime: Date.now(),
+    lastUpdatedTime: Date.now(),
+  }
+
+  if (closeTime) contract.closeTime = closeTime
+
+  return contract
+}
+
+const calcStartPool = (
+  initialProbInt: number,
+  ante?: number,
+  phantomAnte = 200
+) => {
+  const p = initialProbInt / 100.0
+  const totalAnte = phantomAnte + (ante || 0)
+
+  const poolYes =
+    p === 0.5
+      ? p * totalAnte
+      : -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p)
+
+  const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes
+
+  const f = phantomAnte / totalAnte
+  const startYes = f * poolYes
+  const startNo = f * poolNo
+
+  return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo }
+}
+
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+export async function getContractFromSlug(slug: string) {
+  const snap = await firestore
+    .collection('contracts')
+    .where('slug', '==', slug)
+    .get()
+
+  return snap.empty ? undefined : (snap.docs[0].data() as Contract)
+}
--- a/functions/src/emails.ts
+++ b/functions/src/emails.ts
@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+import { sendEmail } from './send-email'
+import { Contract } from './types/contract'
+import { User } from './types/user'
+import { getUser } from './utils'
+
+export const sendMarketResolutionEmail = async (
+  userId: string,
+  payout: number,
+  creator: User,
+  contract: Contract,
+  resolution: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
+) => {
+  const user = await getUser(userId)
+  if (!user) return
+
+  const subject = `Resolved ${toDisplayResolution[resolution]}: ${contract.question}`
+
+  const body = `Dear ${user.name},
+
+A market you bet in has been resolved!
+
+Creator: ${contract.creatorName}
+Question: ${contract.question}
+Resolution: ${toDisplayResolution[resolution]}
+
+Your payout is M$ ${Math.round(payout)}
+
+View the market here:
+https://manifold.markets/${creator.username}/${contract.slug}
+`
+  await sendEmail(user.email, subject, body)
+}
+
+const toDisplayResolution = { YES: 'YES', NO: 'NO', CANCEL: 'N/A', MKT: 'MKT' }
--- a/functions/src/index.ts
+++ b/functions/src/index.ts
@ -2,7 +2,9 @@ import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'

 admin.initializeApp()

-export * from './keep-awake'
+// export * from './keep-awake'
 export * from './place-bet'
 export * from './resolve-market'
 export * from './stripe'
+export * from './sell-bet'
+export * from './create-contract'
--- a/functions/src/keep-awake.ts
+++ b/functions/src/keep-awake.ts
@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ export const keepAwake = functions.pubsub
    await Promise.all([
      callCloudFunction('placeBet'),
      callCloudFunction('resolveMarket'),
+      callCloudFunction('sellBet'),
    ])

    await sleep(30)
@ -15,6 +16,7 @@ export const keepAwake = functions.pubsub
    await Promise.all([
      callCloudFunction('placeBet'),
      callCloudFunction('resolveMarket'),
+      callCloudFunction('sellBet'),
    ])
  })

--- a/functions/src/place-bet.ts
+++ b/functions/src/place-bet.ts
@ -43,22 +43,18 @@ export const placeBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
        .collection(`contracts/${contractId}/bets`)
        .doc()

-      const { newBet, newPool, newDpmWeights, newBalance } = getNewBetInfo(
-        user,
-        outcome,
-        amount,
-        contract,
-        newBetDoc.id
-      )
+      const { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets, newBalance } =
+        getNewBetInfo(user, outcome, amount, contract, newBetDoc.id)

      transaction.create(newBetDoc, newBet)
      transaction.update(contractDoc, {
        pool: newPool,
-        dpmWeights: newDpmWeights,
+        totalShares: newTotalShares,
+        totalBets: newTotalBets,
      })
      transaction.update(userDoc, { balance: newBalance })

-      return { status: 'success' }
+      return { status: 'success', betId: newBetDoc.id }
    })
  }
 )
@ -79,29 +75,26 @@ const getNewBetInfo = (
      ? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
      : { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount }

-  const dpmWeight =
+  const shares =
    outcome === 'YES'
-      ? (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
-      : (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
+      ? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
+      : amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)

-  const { YES: yesWeight, NO: noWeight } = contract.dpmWeights || {
-    YES: 0,
-    NO: 0,
-  } // only nesc for old contracts
+  const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares

-  const newDpmWeights =
+  const newTotalShares =
    outcome === 'YES'
-      ? { YES: yesWeight + dpmWeight, NO: noWeight }
-      : { YES: yesWeight, NO: noWeight + dpmWeight }
+      ? { YES: yesShares + shares, NO: noShares }
+      : { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares + shares }
+
+  const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
+
+  const newTotalBets =
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
+      : { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount }

  const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
-
-  const probAverage =
-    (amount +
-      noPool * Math.atan(yesPool / noPool) -
-      noPool * Math.atan((amount + yesPool) / noPool)) /
-    amount
-
  const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)

  const newBet: Bet = {
@ -109,15 +102,14 @@ const getNewBetInfo = (
    userId: user.id,
    contractId: contract.id,
    amount,
-    dpmWeight,
+    shares,
    outcome,
    probBefore,
-    probAverage,
    probAfter,
    createdTime: Date.now(),
  }

  const newBalance = user.balance - amount

-  return { newBet, newPool, newDpmWeights, newBalance }
+  return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets, newBalance }
 }
--- a/functions/src/resolve-market.ts
+++ b/functions/src/resolve-market.ts
@ -5,6 +5,8 @@ import * as _ from 'lodash'
 import { Contract } from './types/contract'
 import { User } from './types/user'
 import { Bet } from './types/bet'
+import { getUser } from './utils'
+import { sendMarketResolutionEmail } from './emails'

 export const PLATFORM_FEE = 0.01 // 1%
 export const CREATOR_FEE = 0.01 // 1%
@ -14,7 +16,7 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
  .https.onCall(
    async (
      data: {
-        outcome: string
+        outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
        contractId: string
      },
      context
@ -24,7 +26,7 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions

      const { outcome, contractId } = data

-      if (!['YES', 'NO', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
+      if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }

      const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
@ -39,6 +41,9 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
      if (contract.resolution)
        return { status: 'error', message: 'Contract already resolved' }

+      const creator = await getUser(contract.creatorId)
+      if (!creator) return { status: 'error', message: 'Creator not found' }
+
      await contractDoc.update({
        isResolved: true,
        resolution: outcome,
@ -50,15 +55,19 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
      const betsSnap = await firestore
        .collection(`contracts/${contractId}/bets`)
        .get()
+
      const bets = betsSnap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
+      const openBets = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
+
+      const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+      const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool

      const payouts =
        outcome === 'CANCEL'
-          ? bets.map((bet) => ({
-              userId: bet.userId,
-              payout: bet.amount,
-            }))
-          : getPayouts(outcome, contract, bets)
+          ? getCancelPayouts(truePool, openBets)
+          : outcome === 'MKT'
+          ? getMktPayouts(truePool, contract, openBets)
+          : getStandardPayouts(outcome, truePool, contract, openBets)

      console.log('payouts:', payouts)

@ -69,31 +78,90 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions

      const payoutPromises = Object.entries(userPayouts).map(payUser)

-      return await Promise.all(payoutPromises)
+      const result = await Promise.all(payoutPromises)
        .catch((e) => ({ status: 'error', message: e }))
        .then(() => ({ status: 'success' }))
+
+      await sendResolutionEmails(
+        openBets,
+        userPayouts,
+        creator,
+        contract,
+        outcome
+      )
+
+      return result
    }
  )

+const sendResolutionEmails = async (
+  openBets: Bet[],
+  userPayouts: { [userId: string]: number },
+  creator: User,
+  contract: Contract,
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
+) => {
+  const nonWinners = _.difference(
+    _.uniq(openBets.map(({ userId }) => userId)),
+    Object.keys(userPayouts)
+  )
+  const emailPayouts = [
+    ...Object.entries(userPayouts),
+    ...nonWinners.map((userId) => [userId, 0] as const),
+  ]
+  await Promise.all(
+    emailPayouts.map(([userId, payout]) =>
+      sendMarketResolutionEmail(userId, payout, creator, contract, outcome)
+    )
+  )
+}
+
 const firestore = admin.firestore()

-const getPayouts = (outcome: string, contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
+const getCancelPayouts = (truePool: number, bets: Bet[]) => {
+  console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', truePool)
+
+  const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
+
+  return bets.map((bet) => ({
+    userId: bet.userId,
+    payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * truePool,
+  }))
+}
+
+const getStandardPayouts = (
+  outcome: string,
+  truePool: number,
+  contract: Contract,
+  bets: Bet[]
+) => {
  const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
+  const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets

-  const [pool, winningBets] =
-    outcome === 'YES'
-      ? [contract.pool.NO - contract.startPool.NO, yesBets]
-      : [contract.pool.YES - contract.startPool.YES, noBets]
+  const betSum = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount)

-  const finalPool = (1 - PLATFORM_FEE - CREATOR_FEE) * pool
-  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * pool
-  console.log('final pool:', finalPool, 'creator fee:', creatorPayout)
+  if (betSum >= truePool) return getCancelPayouts(truePool, winningBets)

-  const sumWeights = _.sumBy(winningBets, (bet) => bet.dpmWeight)
+  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool
+  console.log(
+    'resolved',
+    outcome,
+    'pool: M$',
+    truePool,
+    'creator fee: M$',
+    creatorPayout
+  )
+
+  const shareDifferenceSum = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
+
+  const winningsPool = truePool - betSum

  const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
    userId: bet.userId,
-    payout: bet.amount + (bet.dpmWeight / sumWeights) * finalPool,
+    payout:
+      (1 - fees) *
+      (bet.amount +
+        ((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) * winningsPool),
  }))

  return winnerPayouts.concat([
@ -101,6 +169,59 @@ const getPayouts = (outcome: string, contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
  ]) // add creator fee
 }

+const getMktPayouts = (truePool: number, contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
+  const p =
+    contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
+  console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', truePool)
+
+  const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
+
+  const weightedBetTotal =
+    p * _.sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) +
+    (1 - p) * _.sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount)
+
+  if (weightedBetTotal >= truePool) {
+    return bets.map((bet) => ({
+      userId: bet.userId,
+      payout:
+        (((bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) /
+          weightedBetTotal) *
+        truePool,
+    }))
+  }
+
+  const winningsPool = truePool - weightedBetTotal
+
+  const weightedShareTotal =
+    p * _.sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) +
+    (1 - p) * _.sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
+
+  const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
+    userId: bet.userId,
+    payout:
+      (1 - fees) *
+      (p * bet.amount +
+        ((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool),
+  }))
+
+  const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
+    userId: bet.userId,
+    payout:
+      (1 - fees) *
+      ((1 - p) * bet.amount +
+        (((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
+          winningsPool),
+  }))
+
+  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool
+
+  return [
+    ...yesPayouts,
+    ...noPayouts,
+    { userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
+  ]
+}
+
 export const payUser = ([userId, payout]: [string, number]) => {
  return firestore.runTransaction(async (transaction) => {
    const userDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${userId}`)
@ -112,3 +233,5 @@ export const payUser = ([userId, payout]: [string, number]) => {
    transaction.update(userDoc, { balance: newUserBalance })
  })
 }
+
+const fees = PLATFORM_FEE + CREATOR_FEE
--- a/functions/src/scripts/migrate-contract.ts
+++ b/functions/src/scripts/migrate-contract.ts
@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import * as _ from 'lodash'
+import { Bet } from '../types/bet'
+import { Contract } from '../types/contract'
+
+type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
+
+// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
+// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
+const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
+
+admin.initializeApp({
+  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
+})
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+async function migrateBet(contractRef: DocRef, bet: Bet) {
+  const { dpmWeight, amount, id } = bet as Bet & { dpmWeight: number }
+  const shares = dpmWeight + amount
+
+  await contractRef.collection('bets').doc(id).update({ shares })
+}
+
+async function migrateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {
+  const bets = await contractRef
+    .collection('bets')
+    .get()
+    .then((snap) => snap.docs.map((bet) => bet.data() as Bet))
+
+  const totalShares = {
+    YES: _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'YES' ? bet.shares : 0)),
+    NO: _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'NO' ? bet.shares : 0)),
+  }
+
+  await contractRef.update({ totalShares })
+}
+
+async function migrateContracts() {
+  console.log('Migrating contracts')
+
+  const snapshot = await firestore.collection('contracts').get()
+  const contracts = snapshot.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Contract)
+
+  console.log('Loaded contracts', contracts.length)
+
+  for (const contract of contracts) {
+    const contractRef = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contract.id}`)
+    const betsSnapshot = await contractRef.collection('bets').get()
+    const bets = betsSnapshot.docs.map((bet) => bet.data() as Bet)
+
+    console.log('contract', contract.question, 'bets', bets.length)
+
+    for (const bet of bets) await migrateBet(contractRef, bet)
+    await migrateContract(contractRef, contract)
+  }
+}
+
+if (require.main === module) migrateContracts().then(() => process.exit())
--- a/functions/src/scripts/recalculate-contract-totals.ts
+++ b/functions/src/scripts/recalculate-contract-totals.ts
@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import * as _ from 'lodash'
+import { Bet } from '../types/bet'
+import { Contract } from '../types/contract'
+
+type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
+
+// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
+// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
+const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
+
+admin.initializeApp({
+  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
+})
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+async function recalculateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {
+  const bets = await contractRef
+    .collection('bets')
+    .get()
+    .then((snap) => snap.docs.map((bet) => bet.data() as Bet))
+
+  const openBets = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
+
+  const totalShares = {
+    YES: _.sumBy(openBets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'YES' ? bet.shares : 0)),
+    NO: _.sumBy(openBets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'NO' ? bet.shares : 0)),
+  }
+
+  const totalBets = {
+    YES: _.sumBy(openBets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'YES' ? bet.amount : 0)),
+    NO: _.sumBy(openBets, (bet) => (bet.outcome === 'NO' ? bet.amount : 0)),
+  }
+
+  await contractRef.update({ totalShares, totalBets })
+
+  console.log(
+    'calculating totals for "',
+    contract.question,
+    '" total bets:',
+    totalBets
+  )
+  console.log()
+}
+
+async function recalculateContractTotals() {
+  console.log('Recalculating contract info')
+
+  const snapshot = await firestore.collection('contracts').get()
+  const contracts = snapshot.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Contract)
+
+  console.log('Loaded', contracts.length, 'contracts')
+
+  for (const contract of contracts) {
+    const contractRef = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contract.id}`)
+
+    await recalculateContract(contractRef, contract)
+  }
+}
+
+if (require.main === module)
+  recalculateContractTotals().then(() => process.exit())
--- a/functions/src/scripts/rename-user-contracts.ts
+++ b/functions/src/scripts/rename-user-contracts.ts
@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import * as _ from 'lodash'
+import { Contract } from '../types/contract'
+import { getValues } from '../utils'
+
+// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
+// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
+// James:
+const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-820891bb87.json')
+// Stephen:
+// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
+
+admin.initializeApp({
+  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
+})
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+async function renameUserContracts(
+  username: string,
+  newNames: { name: string; username: string }
+) {
+  console.log(`Renaming contracts of ${username} to`, newNames)
+
+  const contracts = await getValues<Contract>(
+    firestore.collection('contracts').where('creatorUsername', '==', username)
+  )
+
+  console.log('Loaded', contracts.length, 'contracts by', username)
+
+  for (const contract of contracts) {
+    const contractRef = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contract.id}`)
+
+    console.log('Renaming', contract.slug)
+
+    await contractRef.update({
+      creatorUsername: newNames.username,
+      creatorName: newNames.name,
+    } as Partial<Contract>)
+  }
+}
+
+if (require.main === module)
+  renameUserContracts('ManticMarkets', {
+    username: 'ManifoldMarkets',
+    name: 'Manifold Markets',
+  }).then(() => process.exit())
--- a/functions/src/sell-bet.ts
+++ b/functions/src/sell-bet.ts
@ -0,0 +1,182 @@
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
+
+import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from './resolve-market'
+import { Bet } from './types/bet'
+import { Contract } from './types/contract'
+import { User } from './types/user'
+
+export const sellBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
+  async (
+    data: {
+      contractId: string
+      betId: string
+    },
+    context
+  ) => {
+    const userId = context?.auth?.uid
+    if (!userId) return { status: 'error', message: 'Not authorized' }
+
+    const { contractId, betId } = data
+
+    // run as transaction to prevent race conditions
+    return await firestore.runTransaction(async (transaction) => {
+      const userDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${userId}`)
+      const userSnap = await transaction.get(userDoc)
+      if (!userSnap.exists)
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'User not found' }
+      const user = userSnap.data() as User
+
+      const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)
+      const contractSnap = await transaction.get(contractDoc)
+      if (!contractSnap.exists)
+        return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
+      const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
+
+      const betDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}/bets/${betId}`)
+      const betSnap = await transaction.get(betDoc)
+      if (!betSnap.exists) return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid bet' }
+      const bet = betSnap.data() as Bet
+
+      if (bet.isSold) return { status: 'error', message: 'Bet already sold' }
+
+      const newBetDoc = firestore
+        .collection(`contracts/${contractId}/bets`)
+        .doc()
+
+      const {
+        newBet,
+        newPool,
+        newTotalShares,
+        newTotalBets,
+        newBalance,
+        creatorFee,
+      } = getSellBetInfo(user, bet, contract, newBetDoc.id)
+
+      const creatorDoc = firestore.doc(`users/${contract.creatorId}`)
+      const creatorSnap = await transaction.get(creatorDoc)
+      if (creatorSnap.exists) {
+        const creator = creatorSnap.data() as User
+        const creatorNewBalance = creator.balance + creatorFee
+        transaction.update(creatorDoc, { balance: creatorNewBalance })
+      }
+
+      transaction.update(betDoc, { isSold: true })
+      transaction.create(newBetDoc, newBet)
+      transaction.update(contractDoc, {
+        pool: newPool,
+        totalShares: newTotalShares,
+        totalBets: newTotalBets,
+      })
+      transaction.update(userDoc, { balance: newBalance })
+
+      return { status: 'success' }
+    })
+  }
+)
+
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+const getSellBetInfo = (
+  user: User,
+  bet: Bet,
+  contract: Contract,
+  newBetId: string
+) => {
+  const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet
+
+  const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
+  const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
+  const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
+  const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
+
+  const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
+
+  const shareValue =
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
+        (n ** 2 +
+          s * y +
+          y ** 2 -
+          Math.sqrt(
+            n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
+          )) /
+        (2 * y)
+      : (y ** 2 +
+          s * n +
+          n ** 2 -
+          Math.sqrt(
+            y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
+          )) /
+        (2 * n)
+
+  const startPool = yesStart + noStart
+  const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
+
+  const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
+
+  const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
+
+  const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
+
+  const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
+
+  const newPool =
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? { YES: yesPool - adjShareValue, NO: noPool }
+      : { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool - adjShareValue }
+
+  const newTotalShares =
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? { YES: yesShares - shares, NO: noShares }
+      : { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares - shares }
+
+  const newTotalBets =
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
+      : { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount }
+
+  const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
+
+  const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
+  const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue
+
+  console.log(
+    'SELL M$',
+    amount,
+    outcome,
+    'for M$',
+    saleAmount,
+    'M$/share:',
+    f,
+    'creator fee: M$',
+    creatorFee
+  )
+
+  const newBet: Bet = {
+    id: newBetId,
+    userId: user.id,
+    contractId: contract.id,
+    amount: -adjShareValue,
+    shares: -shares,
+    outcome,
+    probBefore,
+    probAfter,
+    createdTime: Date.now(),
+    sale: {
+      amount: saleAmount,
+      betId,
+    },
+  }
+
+  const newBalance = user.balance + saleAmount
+
+  return {
+    newBet,
+    newPool,
+    newTotalShares,
+    newTotalBets,
+    newBalance,
+    creatorFee,
+  }
+}
--- a/functions/src/send-email.ts
+++ b/functions/src/send-email.ts
@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+import * as mailgun from 'mailgun-js'
+import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
+
+const DOMAIN = 'mg.manifold.markets'
+const mg = mailgun({ apiKey: functions.config().mailgun.key, domain: DOMAIN })
+
+export const sendEmail = (to: string, subject: string, text: string) => {
+  const data = {
+    from: 'Manifold Markets <no-reply@manifold.markets>',
+    to,
+    subject,
+    text,
+  }
+
+  return mg.messages().send(data, (error, body) => {
+    console.log('Sent email', error, body)
+  })
+}
--- a/functions/src/types/bet.ts
+++ b/functions/src/types/bet.ts
@ -2,11 +2,20 @@ export type Bet = {
  id: string
  userId: string
  contractId: string
-  amount: number // Amount of bet
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' // Chosen outcome
-  createdTime: number
+
+  amount: number // bet size; negative if SELL bet
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
+  shares: number // dynamic parimutuel pool weight; negative if SELL bet
+
  probBefore: number
-  probAverage: number
  probAfter: number
-  dpmWeight: number // Dynamic Parimutuel weight
-}
+
+  sale?: {
+    amount: number // amount user makes from sale
+    betId: string // id of bet being sold
+  }
+
+  isSold?: boolean // true if this BUY bet has been sold
+
+  createdTime: number
+}
--- a/functions/src/types/contract.ts
+++ b/functions/src/types/contract.ts
@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ export type Contract = {

  creatorId: string
  creatorName: string
+  creatorUsername: string

  question: string
  description: string // More info about what the contract is about
@ -12,7 +13,8 @@ export type Contract = {

  startPool: { YES: number; NO: number }
  pool: { YES: number; NO: number }
-  dpmWeights: { YES: number; NO: number }
+  totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
+  totalBets: { YES: number; NO: number }

  createdTime: number // Milliseconds since epoch
  lastUpdatedTime: number // If the question or description was changed
--- a/functions/src/util/random-string.ts
+++ b/functions/src/util/random-string.ts
--- a/functions/src/util/slugify.ts
+++ b/functions/src/util/slugify.ts
--- a/functions/src/utils.ts
+++ b/functions/src/utils.ts
@ -4,14 +4,14 @@ import { Contract } from './types/contract'
 import { User } from './types/user'

 export const getValue = async <T>(collection: string, doc: string) => {
-  const snap = await admin.firestore()
-    .collection(collection)
-    .doc(doc)
-    .get()
+  const snap = await admin.firestore().collection(collection).doc(doc).get()

-  return snap.exists
-    ? snap.data() as T
-    : undefined
+  return snap.exists ? (snap.data() as T) : undefined
+}
+
+export const getValues = async <T>(query: admin.firestore.Query) => {
+  const snap = await query.get()
+  return snap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as T)
 }

 export const getContract = (contractId: string) => {
@ -20,4 +20,4 @@ export const getContract = (contractId: string) => {

 export const getUser = (userId: string) => {
  return getValue<User>('users', userId)
-}
+}
--- a/functions/yarn.lock
+++ b/functions/yarn.lock
@ -301,6 +301,14 @@
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/@types/long/-/long-4.0.1.tgz#459c65fa1867dafe6a8f322c4c51695663cc55e9"
  integrity sha512-5tXH6Bx/kNGd3MgffdmP4dy2Z+G4eaXw0SE81Tq3BNadtnMR5/ySMzX4SLEzHJzSmPNn4HIdpQsBvXMUykr58w==

+"@types/mailgun-js@0.22.12":
+  version "0.22.12"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/@types/mailgun-js/-/mailgun-js-0.22.12.tgz#b0dcb590b56ef3e599ab1f262882493d318e5510"
+  integrity sha512-fTjuh2mOPoJF2BN0QAhE5iPOBls333KIJrmrrJHObMDuBCgEfaENLX2LH1FjKqhfuWfGotKOfPFZMuSok5Ow7g==
+  dependencies:
+    "@types/node" "*"
+    form-data "^2.5.0"
+
 "@types/mime@^1":
  version "1.3.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/@types/mime/-/mime-1.3.2.tgz#93e25bf9ee75fe0fd80b594bc4feb0e862111b5a"
@ -344,6 +352,13 @@ accepts@~1.3.7:
    mime-types "~2.1.24"
    negotiator "0.6.2"

+agent-base@4, agent-base@^4.2.0, agent-base@^4.3.0:
+  version "4.3.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/agent-base/-/agent-base-4.3.0.tgz#8165f01c436009bccad0b1d122f05ed770efc6ee"
+  integrity sha512-salcGninV0nPrwpGNn4VTXBb1SOuXQBiqbrNXoeizJsHrsL6ERFM2Ne3JUSBWRE6aeNJI2ROP/WEEIDUiDe3cg==
+  dependencies:
+    es6-promisify "^5.0.0"
+
 agent-base@6:
  version "6.0.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/agent-base/-/agent-base-6.0.2.tgz#49fff58577cfee3f37176feab4c22e00f86d7f77"
@ -351,6 +366,13 @@ agent-base@6:
  dependencies:
    debug "4"

+agent-base@~4.2.1:
+  version "4.2.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/agent-base/-/agent-base-4.2.1.tgz#d89e5999f797875674c07d87f260fc41e83e8ca9"
+  integrity sha512-JVwXMr9nHYTUXsBFKUqhJwvlcYU/blreOEUkhNR2eXZIvwd+c+o5V4MgDPKWnMS/56awN3TRzIP+KoPn+roQtg==
+  dependencies:
+    es6-promisify "^5.0.0"
+
 ansi-regex@^5.0.1:
  version "5.0.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/ansi-regex/-/ansi-regex-5.0.1.tgz#082cb2c89c9fe8659a311a53bd6a4dc5301db304"
@ -373,6 +395,13 @@ arrify@^2.0.0, arrify@^2.0.1:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/arrify/-/arrify-2.0.1.tgz#c9655e9331e0abcd588d2a7cad7e9956f66701fa"
  integrity sha512-3duEwti880xqi4eAMN8AyR4a0ByT90zoYdLlevfrvU43vb0YZwZVfxOgxWrLXXXpyugL0hNZc9G6BiB5B3nUug==

+ast-types@0.x.x:
+  version "0.14.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/ast-types/-/ast-types-0.14.2.tgz#600b882df8583e3cd4f2df5fa20fa83759d4bdfd"
+  integrity sha512-O0yuUDnZeQDL+ncNGlJ78BiO4jnYI3bvMsD5prT0/nsgijG/LpNBIr63gTjVTNsiGkgQhiyCShTgxt8oXOrklA==
+  dependencies:
+    tslib "^2.0.1"
+
 async-retry@^1.3.1, async-retry@^1.3.3:
  version "1.3.3"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/async-retry/-/async-retry-1.3.3.tgz#0e7f36c04d8478e7a58bdbed80cedf977785f280"
@ -380,6 +409,18 @@ async-retry@^1.3.1, async-retry@^1.3.3:
  dependencies:
    retry "0.13.1"

+async@^2.6.1:
+  version "2.6.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/async/-/async-2.6.3.tgz#d72625e2344a3656e3a3ad4fa749fa83299d82ff"
+  integrity sha512-zflvls11DCy+dQWzTW2dzuilv8Z5X/pjfmZOWba6TNIVDm+2UDaJmXSOXlasHKfNBs8oo3M0aT50fDEWfKZjXg==
+  dependencies:
+    lodash "^4.17.14"
+
+asynckit@^0.4.0:
+  version "0.4.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/asynckit/-/asynckit-0.4.0.tgz#c79ed97f7f34cb8f2ba1bc9790bcc366474b4b79"
+  integrity sha1-x57Zf380y48robyXkLzDZkdLS3k=
+
 base64-js@^1.3.0:
  version "1.5.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/base64-js/-/base64-js-1.5.1.tgz#1b1b440160a5bf7ad40b650f095963481903930a"
@ -440,6 +481,11 @@ cliui@^7.0.2:
    strip-ansi "^6.0.0"
    wrap-ansi "^7.0.0"

+co@^4.6.0:
+  version "4.6.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/co/-/co-4.6.0.tgz#6ea6bdf3d853ae54ccb8e47bfa0bf3f9031fb184"
+  integrity sha1-bqa989hTrlTMuOR7+gvz+QMfsYQ=
+
 color-convert@^2.0.1:
  version "2.0.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/color-convert/-/color-convert-2.0.1.tgz#72d3a68d598c9bdb3af2ad1e84f21d896abd4de3"
@ -452,6 +498,13 @@ color-name@~1.1.4:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/color-name/-/color-name-1.1.4.tgz#c2a09a87acbde69543de6f63fa3995c826c536a2"
  integrity sha512-dOy+3AuW3a2wNbZHIuMZpTcgjGuLU/uBL/ubcZF9OXbDo8ff4O8yVp5Bf0efS8uEoYo5q4Fx7dY9OgQGXgAsQA==

+combined-stream@^1.0.6:
+  version "1.0.8"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/combined-stream/-/combined-stream-1.0.8.tgz#c3d45a8b34fd730631a110a8a2520682b31d5a7f"
+  integrity sha512-FQN4MRfuJeHf7cBbBMJFXhKSDq+2kAArBlmRBvcvFE5BB1HZKXtSFASDhdlz9zOYwxh8lDdnvmMOe/+5cdoEdg==
+  dependencies:
+    delayed-stream "~1.0.0"
+
 compressible@^2.0.12:
  version "2.0.18"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/compressible/-/compressible-2.0.18.tgz#af53cca6b070d4c3c0750fbd77286a6d7cc46fba"
@ -493,6 +546,11 @@ cookie@0.4.1:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/cookie/-/cookie-0.4.1.tgz#afd713fe26ebd21ba95ceb61f9a8116e50a537d1"
  integrity sha512-ZwrFkGJxUR3EIoXtO+yVE69Eb7KlixbaeAWfBQB9vVsNn/o+Yw69gBWSSDK825hQNdN+wF8zELf3dFNl/kxkUA==

+core-util-is@~1.0.0:
+  version "1.0.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/core-util-is/-/core-util-is-1.0.3.tgz#a6042d3634c2b27e9328f837b965fac83808db85"
+  integrity sha512-ZQBvi1DcpJ4GDqanjucZ2Hj3wEO5pZDS89BWbkcrvdxksJorwUDDZamX9ldFkp9aw2lmBDLgkObEA4DWNJ9FYQ==
+
 cors@^2.8.5:
  version "2.8.5"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/cors/-/cors-2.8.5.tgz#eac11da51592dd86b9f06f6e7ac293b3df875d29"
@ -506,25 +564,63 @@ crypto-random-string@^2.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/crypto-random-string/-/crypto-random-string-2.0.0.tgz#ef2a7a966ec11083388369baa02ebead229b30d5"
  integrity sha512-v1plID3y9r/lPhviJ1wrXpLeyUIGAZ2SHNYTEapm7/8A9nLPoyvVp3RK/EPFqn5kEznyWgYZNsRtYYIWbuG8KA==

+data-uri-to-buffer@1:
+  version "1.2.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/data-uri-to-buffer/-/data-uri-to-buffer-1.2.0.tgz#77163ea9c20d8641b4707e8f18abdf9a78f34835"
+  integrity sha512-vKQ9DTQPN1FLYiiEEOQ6IBGFqvjCa5rSK3cWMy/Nespm5d/x3dGFT9UBZnkLxCwua/IXBi2TYnwTEpsOvhC4UQ==
+
 date-and-time@^2.0.0:
  version "2.0.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/date-and-time/-/date-and-time-2.0.1.tgz#bc8b72704980e8a0979bb186118d30d02059ef04"
  integrity sha512-O7Xe5dLaqvY/aF/MFWArsAM1J4j7w1CSZlPCX9uHgmb+6SbkPd8Q4YOvfvH/cZGvFlJFfHOZKxQtmMUOoZhc/w==

-debug@2.6.9:
+debug@2, debug@2.6.9:
  version "2.6.9"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/debug/-/debug-2.6.9.tgz#5d128515df134ff327e90a4c93f4e077a536341f"
  integrity sha512-bC7ElrdJaJnPbAP+1EotYvqZsb3ecl5wi6Bfi6BJTUcNowp6cvspg0jXznRTKDjm/E7AdgFBVeAPVMNcKGsHMA==
  dependencies:
    ms "2.0.0"

-debug@4, debug@^4.1.1, debug@^4.3.2:
+debug@3.1.0:
+  version "3.1.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/debug/-/debug-3.1.0.tgz#5bb5a0672628b64149566ba16819e61518c67261"
+  integrity sha512-OX8XqP7/1a9cqkxYw2yXss15f26NKWBpDXQd0/uK/KPqdQhxbPa994hnzjcE2VqQpDslf55723cKPUOGSmMY3g==
+  dependencies:
+    ms "2.0.0"
+
+debug@4, debug@^4.1.0, debug@^4.1.1, debug@^4.3.2:
  version "4.3.3"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/debug/-/debug-4.3.3.tgz#04266e0b70a98d4462e6e288e38259213332b664"
  integrity sha512-/zxw5+vh1Tfv+4Qn7a5nsbcJKPaSvCDhojn6FEl9vupwK2VCSDtEiEtqr8DFtzYFOdz63LBkxec7DYuc2jon6Q==
  dependencies:
    ms "2.1.2"

+debug@^3.1.0:
+  version "3.2.7"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/debug/-/debug-3.2.7.tgz#72580b7e9145fb39b6676f9c5e5fb100b934179a"
+  integrity sha512-CFjzYYAi4ThfiQvizrFQevTTXHtnCqWfe7x1AhgEscTz6ZbLbfoLRLPugTQyBth6f8ZERVUSyWHFD/7Wu4t1XQ==
+  dependencies:
+    ms "^2.1.1"
+
+deep-is@~0.1.3:
+  version "0.1.4"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/deep-is/-/deep-is-0.1.4.tgz#a6f2dce612fadd2ef1f519b73551f17e85199831"
+  integrity sha512-oIPzksmTg4/MriiaYGO+okXDT7ztn/w3Eptv/+gSIdMdKsJo0u4CfYNFJPy+4SKMuCqGw2wxnA+URMg3t8a/bQ==
+
+degenerator@^1.0.4:
+  version "1.0.4"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/degenerator/-/degenerator-1.0.4.tgz#fcf490a37ece266464d9cc431ab98c5819ced095"
+  integrity sha1-/PSQo37OJmRk2cxDGrmMWBnO0JU=
+  dependencies:
+    ast-types "0.x.x"
+    escodegen "1.x.x"
+    esprima "3.x.x"
+
+delayed-stream@~1.0.0:
+  version "1.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/delayed-stream/-/delayed-stream-1.0.0.tgz#df3ae199acadfb7d440aaae0b29e2272b24ec619"
+  integrity sha1-3zrhmayt+31ECqrgsp4icrJOxhk=
+
 depd@~1.1.2:
  version "1.1.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/depd/-/depd-1.1.2.tgz#9bcd52e14c097763e749b274c4346ed2e560b5a9"
@ -600,6 +696,18 @@ ent@^2.2.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/ent/-/ent-2.2.0.tgz#e964219325a21d05f44466a2f686ed6ce5f5dd1d"
  integrity sha1-6WQhkyWiHQX0RGai9obtbOX13R0=

+es6-promise@^4.0.3:
+  version "4.2.8"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/es6-promise/-/es6-promise-4.2.8.tgz#4eb21594c972bc40553d276e510539143db53e0a"
+  integrity sha512-HJDGx5daxeIvxdBxvG2cb9g4tEvwIk3i8+nhX0yGrYmZUzbkdg8QbDevheDB8gd0//uPj4c1EQua8Q+MViT0/w==
+
+es6-promisify@^5.0.0:
+  version "5.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/es6-promisify/-/es6-promisify-5.0.0.tgz#5109d62f3e56ea967c4b63505aef08291c8a5203"
+  integrity sha1-UQnWLz5W6pZ8S2NQWu8IKRyKUgM=
+  dependencies:
+    es6-promise "^4.0.3"
+
 escalade@^3.1.1:
  version "3.1.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/escalade/-/escalade-3.1.1.tgz#d8cfdc7000965c5a0174b4a82eaa5c0552742e40"
@ -610,6 +718,38 @@ escape-html@~1.0.3:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/escape-html/-/escape-html-1.0.3.tgz#0258eae4d3d0c0974de1c169188ef0051d1d1988"
  integrity sha1-Aljq5NPQwJdN4cFpGI7wBR0dGYg=

+escodegen@1.x.x:
+  version "1.14.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/escodegen/-/escodegen-1.14.3.tgz#4e7b81fba61581dc97582ed78cab7f0e8d63f503"
+  integrity sha512-qFcX0XJkdg+PB3xjZZG/wKSuT1PnQWx57+TVSjIMmILd2yC/6ByYElPwJnslDsuWuSAp4AwJGumarAAmJch5Kw==
+  dependencies:
+    esprima "^4.0.1"
+    estraverse "^4.2.0"
+    esutils "^2.0.2"
+    optionator "^0.8.1"
+  optionalDependencies:
+    source-map "~0.6.1"
+
+esprima@3.x.x:
+  version "3.1.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/esprima/-/esprima-3.1.3.tgz#fdca51cee6133895e3c88d535ce49dbff62a4633"
+  integrity sha1-/cpRzuYTOJXjyI1TXOSdv/YqRjM=
+
+esprima@^4.0.1:
+  version "4.0.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/esprima/-/esprima-4.0.1.tgz#13b04cdb3e6c5d19df91ab6987a8695619b0aa71"
+  integrity sha512-eGuFFw7Upda+g4p+QHvnW0RyTX/SVeJBDM/gCtMARO0cLuT2HcEKnTPvhjV6aGeqrCB/sbNop0Kszm0jsaWU4A==
+
+estraverse@^4.2.0:
+  version "4.3.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/estraverse/-/estraverse-4.3.0.tgz#398ad3f3c5a24948be7725e83d11a7de28cdbd1d"
+  integrity sha512-39nnKffWz8xN1BU/2c79n9nB9HDzo0niYUqx6xyqUnyoAnQyyWpOTdZEeiCch8BBu515t4wp9ZmgVfVhn9EBpw==
+
+esutils@^2.0.2:
+  version "2.0.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/esutils/-/esutils-2.0.3.tgz#74d2eb4de0b8da1293711910d50775b9b710ef64"
+  integrity sha512-kVscqXk4OCp68SZ0dkgEKVi6/8ij300KBWTJq32P/dYeWTSwK41WyTxalN1eRmA5Z9UU/LX9D7FWSmV9SAYx6g==
+
 etag@~1.8.1:
  version "1.8.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/etag/-/etag-1.8.1.tgz#41ae2eeb65efa62268aebfea83ac7d79299b0887"
@ -656,7 +796,7 @@ express@^4.17.1:
    utils-merge "1.0.1"
    vary "~1.1.2"

-extend@^3.0.2:
+extend@^3.0.2, extend@~3.0.2:
  version "3.0.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/extend/-/extend-3.0.2.tgz#f8b1136b4071fbd8eb140aff858b1019ec2915fa"
  integrity sha512-fjquC59cD7CyW6urNXK0FBufkZcoiGG80wTuPujX590cB5Ttln20E2UB4S/WARVqhXffZl2LNgS+gQdPIIim/g==
@ -666,6 +806,11 @@ fast-deep-equal@^3.1.1:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fast-deep-equal/-/fast-deep-equal-3.1.3.tgz#3a7d56b559d6cbc3eb512325244e619a65c6c525"
  integrity sha512-f3qQ9oQy9j2AhBe/H9VC91wLmKBCCU/gDOnKNAYG5hswO7BLKj09Hc5HYNz9cGI++xlpDCIgDaitVs03ATR84Q==

+fast-levenshtein@~2.0.6:
+  version "2.0.6"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fast-levenshtein/-/fast-levenshtein-2.0.6.tgz#3d8a5c66883a16a30ca8643e851f19baa7797917"
+  integrity sha1-PYpcZog6FqMMqGQ+hR8Zuqd5eRc=
+
 fast-text-encoding@^1.0.0, fast-text-encoding@^1.0.3:
  version "1.0.3"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fast-text-encoding/-/fast-text-encoding-1.0.3.tgz#ec02ac8e01ab8a319af182dae2681213cfe9ce53"
@ -686,6 +831,11 @@ fetch@1.1.0:
    biskviit "1.0.1"
    encoding "0.1.12"

+file-uri-to-path@1:
+  version "1.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/file-uri-to-path/-/file-uri-to-path-1.0.0.tgz#553a7b8446ff6f684359c445f1e37a05dacc33dd"
+  integrity sha512-0Zt+s3L7Vf1biwWZ29aARiVYLx7iMGnEUl9x33fbB/j3jR81u/O2LbqK+Bm1CDSNDKVtJ/YjwY7TUd5SkeLQLw==
+
 finalhandler@~1.1.2:
  version "1.1.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/finalhandler/-/finalhandler-1.1.2.tgz#b7e7d000ffd11938d0fdb053506f6ebabe9f587d"
@ -734,6 +884,15 @@ firebase-functions@3.16.0:
    express "^4.17.1"
    lodash "^4.17.14"

+form-data@^2.3.3, form-data@^2.5.0:
+  version "2.5.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/form-data/-/form-data-2.5.1.tgz#f2cbec57b5e59e23716e128fe44d4e5dd23895f4"
+  integrity sha512-m21N3WOmEEURgk6B9GLOE4RuWOFf28Lhh9qGYeNlGq4VDXUlJy2th2slBNU8Gp8EzloYZOibZJ7t5ecIrFSjVA==
+  dependencies:
+    asynckit "^0.4.0"
+    combined-stream "^1.0.6"
+    mime-types "^2.1.12"
+
 forwarded@0.2.0:
  version "0.2.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/forwarded/-/forwarded-0.2.0.tgz#2269936428aad4c15c7ebe9779a84bf0b2a81811"
@ -748,6 +907,14 @@ function-bind@^1.1.1:
  version "1.1.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/function-bind/-/function-bind-1.1.1.tgz#a56899d3ea3c9bab874bb9773b7c5ede92f4895d"
  integrity sha512-yIovAzMX49sF8Yl58fSCWJ5svSLuaibPxXQJFLmBObTuCr0Mf1KiPopGM9NiFjiYBCbfaa2Fh6breQ6ANVTI0A==
+  
+ftp@~0.3.10:
+  version "0.3.10"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/ftp/-/ftp-0.3.10.tgz#9197d861ad8142f3e63d5a83bfe4c59f7330885d"
+  integrity sha1-kZfYYa2BQvPmPVqDv+TFn3MwiF0=
+  dependencies:
+    readable-stream "1.1.x"
+    xregexp "2.0.0"

 functional-red-black-tree@^1.0.1:
  version "1.0.1"
@ -806,6 +973,18 @@ get-stream@^6.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/get-stream/-/get-stream-6.0.1.tgz#a262d8eef67aced57c2852ad6167526a43cbf7b7"
  integrity sha512-ts6Wi+2j3jQjqi70w5AlN8DFnkSwC+MqmxEzdEALB2qXZYV3X/b1CTfgPLGJNMeAWxdPfU8FO1ms3NUfaHCPYg==

+get-uri@^2.0.0:
+  version "2.0.4"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/get-uri/-/get-uri-2.0.4.tgz#d4937ab819e218d4cb5ae18e4f5962bef169cc6a"
+  integrity sha512-v7LT/s8kVjs+Tx0ykk1I+H/rbpzkHvuIq87LmeXptcf5sNWm9uQiwjNAt94SJPA1zOlCntmnOlJvVWKmzsxG8Q==
+  dependencies:
+    data-uri-to-buffer "1"
+    debug "2"
+    extend "~3.0.2"
+    file-uri-to-path "1"
+    ftp "~0.3.10"
+    readable-stream "2"
+
 google-auth-library@^7.0.0, google-auth-library@^7.6.1, google-auth-library@^7.9.2:
  version "7.11.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/google-auth-library/-/google-auth-library-7.11.0.tgz#b63699c65037310a424128a854ba7e736704cbdb"
@ -894,6 +1073,14 @@ http-parser-js@>=0.5.1:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/http-parser-js/-/http-parser-js-0.5.5.tgz#d7c30d5d3c90d865b4a2e870181f9d6f22ac7ac5"
  integrity sha512-x+JVEkO2PoM8qqpbPbOL3cqHPwerep7OwzK7Ay+sMQjKzaKCqWvjoXm5tqMP9tXWWTnTzAjIhXg+J99XYuPhPA==

+http-proxy-agent@^2.1.0:
+  version "2.1.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/http-proxy-agent/-/http-proxy-agent-2.1.0.tgz#e4821beef5b2142a2026bd73926fe537631c5405"
+  integrity sha512-qwHbBLV7WviBl0rQsOzH6o5lwyOIvwp/BdFnvVxXORldu5TmjFfjzBcWUWS5kWAZhmv+JtiDhSuQCp4sBfbIgg==
+  dependencies:
+    agent-base "4"
+    debug "3.1.0"
+
 http-proxy-agent@^5.0.0:
  version "5.0.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/http-proxy-agent/-/http-proxy-agent-5.0.0.tgz#5129800203520d434f142bc78ff3c170800f2b43"
@ -903,6 +1090,14 @@ http-proxy-agent@^5.0.0:
    agent-base "6"
    debug "4"

+https-proxy-agent@^3.0.0:
+  version "3.0.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/https-proxy-agent/-/https-proxy-agent-3.0.1.tgz#b8c286433e87602311b01c8ea34413d856a4af81"
+  integrity sha512-+ML2Rbh6DAuee7d07tYGEKOEi2voWPUGan+ExdPbPW6Z3svq+JCqr0v8WmKPOkz1vOVykPCBSuobe7G8GJUtVg==
+  dependencies:
+    agent-base "^4.3.0"
+    debug "^3.1.0"
+
 https-proxy-agent@^5.0.0:
  version "5.0.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/https-proxy-agent/-/https-proxy-agent-5.0.0.tgz#e2a90542abb68a762e0a0850f6c9edadfd8506b2"
@ -923,11 +1118,26 @@ imurmurhash@^0.1.4:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/imurmurhash/-/imurmurhash-0.1.4.tgz#9218b9b2b928a238b13dc4fb6b6d576f231453ea"
  integrity sha1-khi5srkoojixPcT7a21XbyMUU+o=

-inherits@2.0.4, inherits@^2.0.3:
+inflection@~1.12.0:
+  version "1.12.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/inflection/-/inflection-1.12.0.tgz#a200935656d6f5f6bc4dc7502e1aecb703228416"
+  integrity sha1-ogCTVlbW9fa8TcdQLhrstwMihBY=
+
+inflection@~1.3.0:
+  version "1.3.8"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/inflection/-/inflection-1.3.8.tgz#cbd160da9f75b14c3cc63578d4f396784bf3014e"
+  integrity sha1-y9Fg2p91sUw8xjV41POWeEvzAU4=
+
+inherits@2.0.4, inherits@^2.0.3, inherits@~2.0.1, inherits@~2.0.3:
  version "2.0.4"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/inherits/-/inherits-2.0.4.tgz#0fa2c64f932917c3433a0ded55363aae37416b7c"
  integrity sha512-k/vGaX4/Yla3WzyMCvTQOXYeIHvqOKtnqBduzTHpzpQZzAskKMhZ2K+EnBiSM9zGSoIFeMpXKxa4dYeZIQqewQ==

+ip@1.1.5, ip@^1.1.5:
+  version "1.1.5"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/ip/-/ip-1.1.5.tgz#bdded70114290828c0a039e72ef25f5aaec4354a"
+  integrity sha1-vd7XARQpCCjAoDnnLvJfWq7ENUo=
+
 ipaddr.js@1.9.1:
  version "1.9.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/ipaddr.js/-/ipaddr.js-1.9.1.tgz#bff38543eeb8984825079ff3a2a8e6cbd46781b3"
@ -948,6 +1158,11 @@ is-stream-ended@^0.1.4:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/is-stream-ended/-/is-stream-ended-0.1.4.tgz#f50224e95e06bce0e356d440a4827cd35b267eda"
  integrity sha512-xj0XPvmr7bQFTvirqnFr50o0hQIh6ZItDqloxt5aJrR4NQsYeSsyFQERYGCAzfindAcnKjINnwEEgLx4IqVzQw==

+is-stream@^1.1.0:
+  version "1.1.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/is-stream/-/is-stream-1.1.0.tgz#12d4a3dd4e68e0b79ceb8dbc84173ae80d91ca44"
+  integrity sha1-EtSj3U5o4Lec6428hBc66A2RykQ=
+
 is-stream@^2.0.0:
  version "2.0.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/is-stream/-/is-stream-2.0.1.tgz#fac1e3d53b97ad5a9d0ae9cef2389f5810a5c077"
@ -958,6 +1173,16 @@ is-typedarray@^1.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/is-typedarray/-/is-typedarray-1.0.0.tgz#e479c80858df0c1b11ddda6940f96011fcda4a9a"
  integrity sha1-5HnICFjfDBsR3dppQPlgEfzaSpo=

+isarray@0.0.1:
+  version "0.0.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/isarray/-/isarray-0.0.1.tgz#8a18acfca9a8f4177e09abfc6038939b05d1eedf"
+  integrity sha1-ihis/Kmo9Bd+Cav8YDiTmwXR7t8=
+
+isarray@~1.0.0:
+  version "1.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/isarray/-/isarray-1.0.0.tgz#bb935d48582cba168c06834957a54a3e07124f11"
+  integrity sha1-u5NdSFgsuhaMBoNJV6VKPgcSTxE=
+
 jose@^2.0.5:
  version "2.0.5"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/jose/-/jose-2.0.5.tgz#29746a18d9fff7dcf9d5d2a6f62cb0c7cd27abd3"
@ -1033,6 +1258,14 @@ jws@^4.0.0:
    jwa "^2.0.0"
    safe-buffer "^5.0.1"

+levn@~0.3.0:
+  version "0.3.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/levn/-/levn-0.3.0.tgz#3b09924edf9f083c0490fdd4c0bc4421e04764ee"
+  integrity sha1-OwmSTt+fCDwEkP3UwLxEIeBHZO4=
+  dependencies:
+    prelude-ls "~1.1.2"
+    type-check "~0.3.2"
+
 limiter@^1.1.5:
  version "1.1.5"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/limiter/-/limiter-1.1.5.tgz#8f92a25b3b16c6131293a0cc834b4a838a2aa7c2"
@ -1093,6 +1326,13 @@ long@^4.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/long/-/long-4.0.0.tgz#9a7b71cfb7d361a194ea555241c92f7468d5bf28"
  integrity sha512-XsP+KhQif4bjX1kbuSiySJFNAehNxgLb6hPRGJ9QsUr8ajHkuXGdrHmFUTUUXhDwVX2R5bY4JNZEwbUiMhV+MA==

+lru-cache@^5.1.1:
+  version "5.1.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/lru-cache/-/lru-cache-5.1.1.tgz#1da27e6710271947695daf6848e847f01d84b920"
+  integrity sha512-KpNARQA3Iwv+jTA0utUVVbrh+Jlrr1Fv0e56GGzAFOXN7dk/FviaDW8LHmK52DlcH4WP2n6gI8vN1aesBFgo9w==
+  dependencies:
+    yallist "^3.0.2"
+
 lru-cache@^6.0.0:
  version "6.0.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/lru-cache/-/lru-cache-6.0.0.tgz#6d6fe6570ebd96aaf90fcad1dafa3b2566db3a94"
@ -1116,6 +1356,21 @@ lru-memoizer@^2.1.4:
    lodash.clonedeep "^4.5.0"
    lru-cache "~4.0.0"

+mailgun-js@0.22.0:
+  version "0.22.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/mailgun-js/-/mailgun-js-0.22.0.tgz#128942b5e47a364a470791608852bf68c96b3a05"
+  integrity sha512-a2alg5nuTZA9Psa1pSEIEsbxr1Zrmqx4VkgGCQ30xVh0kIH7Bu57AYILo+0v8QLSdXtCyLaS+KVmdCrQo0uWFA==
+  dependencies:
+    async "^2.6.1"
+    debug "^4.1.0"
+    form-data "^2.3.3"
+    inflection "~1.12.0"
+    is-stream "^1.1.0"
+    path-proxy "~1.0.0"
+    promisify-call "^2.0.2"
+    proxy-agent "^3.0.3"
+    tsscmp "^1.0.6"
+
 make-dir@^3.0.0:
  version "3.1.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/make-dir/-/make-dir-3.1.0.tgz#415e967046b3a7f1d185277d84aa58203726a13f"
@ -1143,7 +1398,7 @@ mime-db@1.51.0, "mime-db@>= 1.43.0 < 2":
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/mime-db/-/mime-db-1.51.0.tgz#d9ff62451859b18342d960850dc3cfb77e63fb0c"
  integrity sha512-5y8A56jg7XVQx2mbv1lu49NR4dokRnhZYTtL+KGfaa27uq4pSTXkwQkFJl4pkRMyNFz/EtYDSkiiEHx3F7UN6g==

-mime-types@^2.0.8, mime-types@~2.1.24:
+mime-types@^2.0.8, mime-types@^2.1.12, mime-types@~2.1.24:
  version "2.1.34"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/mime-types/-/mime-types-2.1.34.tgz#5a712f9ec1503511a945803640fafe09d3793c24"
  integrity sha512-6cP692WwGIs9XXdOO4++N+7qjqv0rqxxVvJ3VHPh/Sc9mVZcQP+ZGhkKiTvWMQRr2tbHkJP/Yn7Y0npb3ZBs4A==
@ -1180,6 +1435,11 @@ negotiator@0.6.2:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/negotiator/-/negotiator-0.6.2.tgz#feacf7ccf525a77ae9634436a64883ffeca346fb"
  integrity sha512-hZXc7K2e+PgeI1eDBe/10Ard4ekbfrrqG8Ep+8Jmf4JID2bNg7NvCPOZN+kfF574pFQI7mum2AUqDidoKqcTOw==

+netmask@^1.0.6:
+  version "1.0.6"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/netmask/-/netmask-1.0.6.tgz#20297e89d86f6f6400f250d9f4f6b4c1945fcd35"
+  integrity sha1-ICl+idhvb2QA8lDZ9Pa0wZRfzTU=
+
 node-fetch@^2.6.1:
  version "2.6.6"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/node-fetch/-/node-fetch-2.6.6.tgz#1751a7c01834e8e1697758732e9efb6eeadfaf89"
@ -1221,6 +1481,18 @@ once@^1.3.1, once@^1.4.0:
  dependencies:
    wrappy "1"

+optionator@^0.8.1:
+  version "0.8.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/optionator/-/optionator-0.8.3.tgz#84fa1d036fe9d3c7e21d99884b601167ec8fb495"
+  integrity sha512-+IW9pACdk3XWmmTXG8m3upGUJst5XRGzxMRjXzAuJ1XnIFNvfhjjIuYkDvysnPQ7qzqVzLt78BCruntqRhWQbA==
+  dependencies:
+    deep-is "~0.1.3"
+    fast-levenshtein "~2.0.6"
+    levn "~0.3.0"
+    prelude-ls "~1.1.2"
+    type-check "~0.3.2"
+    word-wrap "~1.2.3"
+
 p-limit@^3.0.1:
  version "3.1.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/p-limit/-/p-limit-3.1.0.tgz#e1daccbe78d0d1388ca18c64fea38e3e57e3706b"
@ -1228,16 +1500,65 @@ p-limit@^3.0.1:
  dependencies:
    yocto-queue "^0.1.0"

+pac-proxy-agent@^3.0.1:
+  version "3.0.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/pac-proxy-agent/-/pac-proxy-agent-3.0.1.tgz#115b1e58f92576cac2eba718593ca7b0e37de2ad"
+  integrity sha512-44DUg21G/liUZ48dJpUSjZnFfZro/0K5JTyFYLBcmh9+T6Ooi4/i4efwUiEy0+4oQusCBqWdhv16XohIj1GqnQ==
+  dependencies:
+    agent-base "^4.2.0"
+    debug "^4.1.1"
+    get-uri "^2.0.0"
+    http-proxy-agent "^2.1.0"
+    https-proxy-agent "^3.0.0"
+    pac-resolver "^3.0.0"
+    raw-body "^2.2.0"
+    socks-proxy-agent "^4.0.1"
+
+pac-resolver@^3.0.0:
+  version "3.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/pac-resolver/-/pac-resolver-3.0.0.tgz#6aea30787db0a891704deb7800a722a7615a6f26"
+  integrity sha512-tcc38bsjuE3XZ5+4vP96OfhOugrX+JcnpUbhfuc4LuXBLQhoTthOstZeoQJBDnQUDYzYmdImKsbz0xSl1/9qeA==
+  dependencies:
+    co "^4.6.0"
+    degenerator "^1.0.4"
+    ip "^1.1.5"
+    netmask "^1.0.6"
+    thunkify "^2.1.2"
+
 parseurl@~1.3.3:
  version "1.3.3"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/parseurl/-/parseurl-1.3.3.tgz#9da19e7bee8d12dff0513ed5b76957793bc2e8d4"
  integrity sha512-CiyeOxFT/JZyN5m0z9PfXw4SCBJ6Sygz1Dpl0wqjlhDEGGBP1GnsUVEL0p63hoG1fcj3fHynXi9NYO4nWOL+qQ==

+path-proxy@~1.0.0:
+  version "1.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/path-proxy/-/path-proxy-1.0.0.tgz#18e8a36859fc9d2f1a53b48dee138543c020de5e"
+  integrity sha1-GOijaFn8nS8aU7SN7hOFQ8Ag3l4=
+  dependencies:
+    inflection "~1.3.0"
+
 path-to-regexp@0.1.7:
  version "0.1.7"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/path-to-regexp/-/path-to-regexp-0.1.7.tgz#df604178005f522f15eb4490e7247a1bfaa67f8c"
  integrity sha1-32BBeABfUi8V60SQ5yR6G/qmf4w=

+prelude-ls@~1.1.2:
+  version "1.1.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/prelude-ls/-/prelude-ls-1.1.2.tgz#21932a549f5e52ffd9a827f570e04be62a97da54"
+  integrity sha1-IZMqVJ9eUv/ZqCf1cOBL5iqX2lQ=
+
+process-nextick-args@~2.0.0:
+  version "2.0.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/process-nextick-args/-/process-nextick-args-2.0.1.tgz#7820d9b16120cc55ca9ae7792680ae7dba6d7fe2"
+  integrity sha512-3ouUOpQhtgrbOa17J7+uxOTpITYWaGP7/AhoR3+A+/1e9skrzelGi/dXzEYyvbxubEF6Wn2ypscTKiKJFFn1ag==
+
+promisify-call@^2.0.2:
+  version "2.0.4"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/promisify-call/-/promisify-call-2.0.4.tgz#d48c2d45652ccccd52801ddecbd533a6d4bd5fba"
+  integrity sha1-1IwtRWUszM1SgB3ey9UzptS9X7o=
+  dependencies:
+    with-callback "^1.0.2"
+
 proto3-json-serializer@^0.1.5:
  version "0.1.6"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/proto3-json-serializer/-/proto3-json-serializer-0.1.6.tgz#67cf3b8d5f4c8bebfc410698ad3b1ed64da39c7b"
@ -1272,6 +1593,25 @@ proxy-addr@~2.0.7:
    forwarded "0.2.0"
    ipaddr.js "1.9.1"

+proxy-agent@^3.0.3:
+  version "3.1.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/proxy-agent/-/proxy-agent-3.1.1.tgz#7e04e06bf36afa624a1540be247b47c970bd3014"
+  integrity sha512-WudaR0eTsDx33O3EJE16PjBRZWcX8GqCEeERw1W3hZJgH/F2a46g7jty6UGty6NeJ4CKQy8ds2CJPMiyeqaTvw==
+  dependencies:
+    agent-base "^4.2.0"
+    debug "4"
+    http-proxy-agent "^2.1.0"
+    https-proxy-agent "^3.0.0"
+    lru-cache "^5.1.1"
+    pac-proxy-agent "^3.0.1"
+    proxy-from-env "^1.0.0"
+    socks-proxy-agent "^4.0.1"
+
+proxy-from-env@^1.0.0:
+  version "1.1.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/proxy-from-env/-/proxy-from-env-1.1.0.tgz#e102f16ca355424865755d2c9e8ea4f24d58c3e2"
+  integrity sha512-D+zkORCbA9f1tdWRK0RaCR3GPv50cMxcrz4X8k5LTSUD1Dkw47mKJEZQNunItRTkWwgtaUSo1RVFRIG9ZXiFYg==
+
 pseudomap@^1.0.1:
  version "1.0.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/pseudomap/-/pseudomap-1.0.2.tgz#f052a28da70e618917ef0a8ac34c1ae5a68286b3"
@ -1316,7 +1656,7 @@ range-parser@~1.2.1:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/range-parser/-/range-parser-1.2.1.tgz#3cf37023d199e1c24d1a55b84800c2f3e6468031"
  integrity sha512-Hrgsx+orqoygnmhFbKaHE6c296J+HTAQXoxEF6gNupROmmGJRoyzfG3ccAveqCBrwr/2yxQ5BVd/GTl5agOwSg==

-raw-body@2.4.2:
+raw-body@2.4.2, raw-body@^2.2.0:
  version "2.4.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/raw-body/-/raw-body-2.4.2.tgz#baf3e9c21eebced59dd6533ac872b71f7b61cb32"
  integrity sha512-RPMAFUJP19WIet/99ngh6Iv8fzAbqum4Li7AD6DtGaW2RpMB/11xDoalPiJMTbu6I3hkbMVkATvZrqb9EEqeeQ==
@ -1326,6 +1666,29 @@ raw-body@2.4.2:
    iconv-lite "0.4.24"
    unpipe "1.0.0"

+readable-stream@1.1.x:
+  version "1.1.14"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/readable-stream/-/readable-stream-1.1.14.tgz#7cf4c54ef648e3813084c636dd2079e166c081d9"
+  integrity sha1-fPTFTvZI44EwhMY23SB54WbAgdk=
+  dependencies:
+    core-util-is "~1.0.0"
+    inherits "~2.0.1"
+    isarray "0.0.1"
+    string_decoder "~0.10.x"
+
+readable-stream@2:
+  version "2.3.7"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/readable-stream/-/readable-stream-2.3.7.tgz#1eca1cf711aef814c04f62252a36a62f6cb23b57"
+  integrity sha512-Ebho8K4jIbHAxnuxi7o42OrZgF/ZTNcsZj6nRKyUmkhLFq8CHItp/fy6hQZuZmP/n3yZ9VBUbp4zz/mX8hmYPw==
+  dependencies:
+    core-util-is "~1.0.0"
+    inherits "~2.0.3"
+    isarray "~1.0.0"
+    process-nextick-args "~2.0.0"
+    safe-buffer "~5.1.1"
+    string_decoder "~1.1.1"
+    util-deprecate "~1.0.1"
+
 readable-stream@^3.1.1:
  version "3.6.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/readable-stream/-/readable-stream-3.6.0.tgz#337bbda3adc0706bd3e024426a286d4b4b2c9198"
@ -1358,6 +1721,11 @@ safe-buffer@5.2.1, safe-buffer@>=5.1.0, safe-buffer@^5.0.1, safe-buffer@~5.2.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/safe-buffer/-/safe-buffer-5.2.1.tgz#1eaf9fa9bdb1fdd4ec75f58f9cdb4e6b7827eec6"
  integrity sha512-rp3So07KcdmmKbGvgaNxQSJr7bGVSVk5S9Eq1F+ppbRo70+YeaDxkw5Dd8NPN+GD6bjnYm2VuPuCXmpuYvmCXQ==

+safe-buffer@~5.1.0, safe-buffer@~5.1.1:
+  version "5.1.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/safe-buffer/-/safe-buffer-5.1.2.tgz#991ec69d296e0313747d59bdfd2b745c35f8828d"
+  integrity sha512-Gd2UZBJDkXlY7GbJxfsE8/nvKkUEU1G38c1siN6QP6a9PT9MmHB8GnpscSmMJSoF8LOIrt8ud/wPtojys4G6+g==
+
 "safer-buffer@>= 2.1.2 < 3":
  version "2.1.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/safer-buffer/-/safer-buffer-2.1.2.tgz#44fa161b0187b9549dd84bb91802f9bd8385cd6a"
@ -1421,11 +1789,37 @@ signal-exit@^3.0.2:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/signal-exit/-/signal-exit-3.0.6.tgz#24e630c4b0f03fea446a2bd299e62b4a6ca8d0af"
  integrity sha512-sDl4qMFpijcGw22U5w63KmD3cZJfBuFlVNbVMKje2keoKML7X2UzWbc4XrmEbDwg0NXJc3yv4/ox7b+JWb57kQ==

+smart-buffer@^4.1.0:
+  version "4.2.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/smart-buffer/-/smart-buffer-4.2.0.tgz#6e1d71fa4f18c05f7d0ff216dd16a481d0e8d9ae"
+  integrity sha512-94hK0Hh8rPqQl2xXc3HsaBoOXKV20MToPkcXvwbISWLEs+64sBq5kFgn2kJDHb1Pry9yrP0dxrCI9RRci7RXKg==
+
 snakeize@^0.1.0:
  version "0.1.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/snakeize/-/snakeize-0.1.0.tgz#10c088d8b58eb076b3229bb5a04e232ce126422d"
  integrity sha1-EMCI2LWOsHazIpu1oE4jLOEmQi0=

+socks-proxy-agent@^4.0.1:
+  version "4.0.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/socks-proxy-agent/-/socks-proxy-agent-4.0.2.tgz#3c8991f3145b2799e70e11bd5fbc8b1963116386"
+  integrity sha512-NT6syHhI9LmuEMSK6Kd2V7gNv5KFZoLE7V5udWmn0de+3Mkj3UMA/AJPLyeNUVmElCurSHtUdM3ETpR3z770Wg==
+  dependencies:
+    agent-base "~4.2.1"
+    socks "~2.3.2"
+
+socks@~2.3.2:
+  version "2.3.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/socks/-/socks-2.3.3.tgz#01129f0a5d534d2b897712ed8aceab7ee65d78e3"
+  integrity sha512-o5t52PCNtVdiOvzMry7wU4aOqYWL0PeCXRWBEiJow4/i/wr+wpsJQ9awEu1EonLIqsfGd5qSgDdxEOvCdmBEpA==
+  dependencies:
+    ip "1.1.5"
+    smart-buffer "^4.1.0"
+
+source-map@~0.6.1:
+  version "0.6.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/source-map/-/source-map-0.6.1.tgz#74722af32e9614e9c287a8d0bbde48b5e2f1a263"
+  integrity sha512-UjgapumWlbMhkBgzT7Ykc5YXUT46F0iKu8SGXq0bcwP5dz/h0Plj6enJqjz1Zbq2l5WaqYnrVbwWOWMyF3F47g==
+
 "statuses@>= 1.5.0 < 2", statuses@~1.5.0:
  version "1.5.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/statuses/-/statuses-1.5.0.tgz#161c7dac177659fd9811f43771fa99381478628c"
@ -1464,6 +1858,18 @@ string_decoder@^1.1.1:
  dependencies:
    safe-buffer "~5.2.0"

+string_decoder@~0.10.x:
+  version "0.10.31"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/string_decoder/-/string_decoder-0.10.31.tgz#62e203bc41766c6c28c9fc84301dab1c5310fa94"
+  integrity sha1-YuIDvEF2bGwoyfyEMB2rHFMQ+pQ=
+
+string_decoder@~1.1.1:
+  version "1.1.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/string_decoder/-/string_decoder-1.1.1.tgz#9cf1611ba62685d7030ae9e4ba34149c3af03fc8"
+  integrity sha512-n/ShnvDi6FHbbVfviro+WojiFzv+s8MPMHBczVePfUpDJLwoLT0ht1l4YwBCbi8pJAveEEdnkHyPyTP/mzRfwg==
+  dependencies:
+    safe-buffer "~5.1.0"
+
 strip-ansi@^6.0.0, strip-ansi@^6.0.1:
  version "6.0.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/strip-ansi/-/strip-ansi-6.0.1.tgz#9e26c63d30f53443e9489495b2105d37b67a85d9"
@ -1495,6 +1901,11 @@ teeny-request@^7.0.0:
    stream-events "^1.0.5"
    uuid "^8.0.0"

+thunkify@^2.1.2:
+  version "2.1.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/thunkify/-/thunkify-2.1.2.tgz#faa0e9d230c51acc95ca13a361ac05ca7e04553d"
+  integrity sha1-+qDp0jDFGsyVyhOjYawFyn4EVT0=
+
 toidentifier@1.0.1:
  version "1.0.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/toidentifier/-/toidentifier-1.0.1.tgz#3be34321a88a820ed1bd80dfaa33e479fbb8dd35"
@ -1505,11 +1916,23 @@ tr46@~0.0.3:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/tr46/-/tr46-0.0.3.tgz#8184fd347dac9cdc185992f3a6622e14b9d9ab6a"
  integrity sha1-gYT9NH2snNwYWZLzpmIuFLnZq2o=

-tslib@^2.1.0:
+tslib@^2.0.1, tslib@^2.1.0:
  version "2.3.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/tslib/-/tslib-2.3.1.tgz#e8a335add5ceae51aa261d32a490158ef042ef01"
  integrity sha512-77EbyPPpMz+FRFRuAFlWMtmgUWGe9UOG2Z25NqCwiIjRhOf5iKGuzSe5P2w1laq+FkRy4p+PCuVkJSGkzTEKVw==

+tsscmp@^1.0.6:
+  version "1.0.6"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/tsscmp/-/tsscmp-1.0.6.tgz#85b99583ac3589ec4bfef825b5000aa911d605eb"
+  integrity sha512-LxhtAkPDTkVCMQjt2h6eBVY28KCjikZqZfMcC15YBeNjkgUpdCfBu5HoiOTDu86v6smE8yOjyEktJ8hlbANHQA==
+
+type-check@~0.3.2:
+  version "0.3.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/type-check/-/type-check-0.3.2.tgz#5884cab512cf1d355e3fb784f30804b2b520db72"
+  integrity sha1-WITKtRLPHTVeP7eE8wgEsrUg23I=
+  dependencies:
+    prelude-ls "~1.1.2"
+
 type-is@~1.6.18:
  version "1.6.18"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/type-is/-/type-is-1.6.18.tgz#4e552cd05df09467dcbc4ef739de89f2cf37c131"
@ -1542,7 +1965,7 @@ unpipe@1.0.0, unpipe@~1.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/unpipe/-/unpipe-1.0.0.tgz#b2bf4ee8514aae6165b4817829d21b2ef49904ec"
  integrity sha1-sr9O6FFKrmFltIF4KdIbLvSZBOw=

-util-deprecate@^1.0.1:
+util-deprecate@^1.0.1, util-deprecate@~1.0.1:
  version "1.0.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/util-deprecate/-/util-deprecate-1.0.2.tgz#450d4dc9fa70de732762fbd2d4a28981419a0ccf"
  integrity sha1-RQ1Nyfpw3nMnYvvS1KKJgUGaDM8=
@ -1589,6 +2012,16 @@ whatwg-url@^5.0.0:
    tr46 "~0.0.3"
    webidl-conversions "^3.0.0"

+with-callback@^1.0.2:
+  version "1.0.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/with-callback/-/with-callback-1.0.2.tgz#a09629b9a920028d721404fb435bdcff5c91bc21"
+  integrity sha1-oJYpuakgAo1yFAT7Q1vc/1yRvCE=
+
+word-wrap@~1.2.3:
+  version "1.2.3"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/word-wrap/-/word-wrap-1.2.3.tgz#610636f6b1f703891bd34771ccb17fb93b47079c"
+  integrity sha512-Hz/mrNwitNRh/HUAtM/VT/5VH+ygD6DV7mYKZAtHOrbs8U7lvPS6xf7EJKMF0uW1KJCl0H701g3ZGus+muE5vQ==
+
 wrap-ansi@^7.0.0:
  version "7.0.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/wrap-ansi/-/wrap-ansi-7.0.0.tgz#67e145cff510a6a6984bdf1152911d69d2eb9e43"
@ -1618,6 +2051,11 @@ xdg-basedir@^4.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/xdg-basedir/-/xdg-basedir-4.0.0.tgz#4bc8d9984403696225ef83a1573cbbcb4e79db13"
  integrity sha512-PSNhEJDejZYV7h50BohL09Er9VaIefr2LMAf3OEmpCkjOi34eYyQYAXUTjEQtZJTKcF0E2UKTh+osDLsgNim9Q==

+xregexp@2.0.0:
+  version "2.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/xregexp/-/xregexp-2.0.0.tgz#52a63e56ca0b84a7f3a5f3d61872f126ad7a5943"
+  integrity sha1-UqY+VsoLhKfzpfPWGHLxJq16WUM=
+
 y18n@^5.0.5:
  version "5.0.8"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/y18n/-/y18n-5.0.8.tgz#7f4934d0f7ca8c56f95314939ddcd2dd91ce1d55"
@ -1628,6 +2066,11 @@ yallist@^2.0.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/yallist/-/yallist-2.1.2.tgz#1c11f9218f076089a47dd512f93c6699a6a81d52"
  integrity sha1-HBH5IY8HYImkfdUS+TxmmaaoHVI=

+yallist@^3.0.2:
+  version "3.1.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/yallist/-/yallist-3.1.1.tgz#dbb7daf9bfd8bac9ab45ebf602b8cbad0d5d08fd"
+  integrity sha512-a4UGQaWPH59mOXUYnAG2ewncQS4i4F43Tv3JoAM+s2VDAmS9NsK8GpDMLrCHPksFT7h3K6TOoUNn2pb7RoXx4g==
+
 yallist@^4.0.0:
  version "4.0.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/yallist/-/yallist-4.0.0.tgz#9bb92790d9c0effec63be73519e11a35019a3a72"
--- a/web/README.md
+++ b/web/README.md
@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-# Mantic Markets web
+# Manifold Markets web

 ## Getting Started

--- a/web/components/SEO.tsx
+++ b/web/components/SEO.tsx
@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ export function SEO(props: {

  return (
    <Head>
-      <title>{title} | Mantic Markets</title>
+      <title>{title} | Manifold Markets</title>

      <meta
        property="og:title"
@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ export function SEO(props: {
      {url && (
        <meta
          property="og:url"
-          content={'https://mantic.markets' + url}
+          content={'https://manifold.markets' + url}
          key="url"
        />
      )}
--- a/web/components/advanced-panel.tsx
+++ b/web/components/advanced-panel.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+import { useState } from 'react'
+
+export function AdvancedPanel(props: { children: any }) {
+  const { children } = props
+  const [collapsed, setCollapsed] = useState(true)
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      tabIndex={0}
+      className={clsx(
+        'relative collapse collapse-arrow',
+        collapsed ? 'collapse-close' : 'collapse-open'
+      )}
+    >
+      <div
+        onClick={() => setCollapsed((collapsed) => !collapsed)}
+        className="cursor-pointer"
+      >
+        <div className="mt-4 mr-6 text-sm text-gray-400 text-right">
+          Advanced
+        </div>
+        <div
+          className="collapse-title p-0 absolute w-0 h-0 min-h-0"
+          style={{
+            top: -2,
+            right: -15,
+            color: '#9ca3af' /* gray-400 */,
+          }}
+        />
+      </div>
+
+      <div className="collapse-content !p-0 m-0 !bg-transparent">
+        {children}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/components/bet-panel.tsx
+++ b/web/components/bet-panel.tsx
@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { getFunctions, httpsCallable } from 'firebase/functions'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
-import React, { useState } from 'react'
+import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'

 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
 import { Contract } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
@ -8,17 +8,31 @@ import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { YesNoSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
-import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from '../lib/util/format'
+import {
+  formatMoney,
+  formatPercent,
+  formatWithCommas,
+} from '../lib/util/format'
 import { Title } from './title'
 import {
  getProbability,
-  getDpmWeight,
+  calculateShares,
  getProbabilityAfterBet,
-} from '../lib/calculation/contract'
+  calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet,
+} from '../lib/calculate'
 import { firebaseLogin } from '../lib/firebase/users'
 import { AddFundsButton } from './add-funds-button'
+import { OutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
+import { AdvancedPanel } from './advanced-panel'
+import { Bet } from '../lib/firebase/bets'
+import { placeBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'

 export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
+  useEffect(() => {
+    // warm up cloud function
+    placeBet({}).catch()
+  }, [])
+
  const { contract, className } = props

  const user = useUser()
@ -85,9 +99,9 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
    betChoice,
    betAmount ?? 0
  )
-  const dpmWeight = getDpmWeight(contract.pool, betAmount ?? 0, betChoice)
+  const shares = calculateShares(contract.pool, betAmount ?? 0, betChoice)

-  const estimatedWinnings = Math.floor((betAmount ?? 0) + dpmWeight)
+  const estimatedWinnings = Math.floor(shares)
  const estimatedReturn = betAmount
    ? (estimatedWinnings - betAmount) / betAmount
    : 0
@ -97,9 +111,9 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {

  return (
    <Col
-      className={clsx('bg-gray-100 shadow-xl px-8 py-6 rounded-md', className)}
+      className={clsx('bg-gray-100 shadow-md px-8 py-6 rounded-md', className)}
    >
-      <Title className="!mt-0 whitespace-nowrap" text="Place a bet" />
+      <Title className="!mt-0 whitespace-nowrap" text={`Buy ${betChoice}`} />

      <div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">Outcome</div>
      <YesNoSelector
@ -108,7 +122,14 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
        onSelect={(choice) => onBetChoice(choice)}
      />

-      <div className="mt-3 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">Bet amount</div>
+      <div className="mt-3 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">
+        Amount{' '}
+        {user && (
+          <span className="float-right">
+            {formatMoney(remainingBalance > 0 ? remainingBalance : 0)} left
+          </span>
+        )}
+      </div>
      <Col className="my-2">
        <label className="input-group">
          <span className="text-sm bg-gray-200">M$</span>
@ -153,12 +174,38 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
      </Row>

      <div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">
-        Max payout (estimated)
+        Estimated max payout
      </div>
      <div>
-        {formatMoney(estimatedWinnings)} &nbsp; (+{estimatedReturnPercent})
+        {formatMoney(estimatedWinnings)} &nbsp;{' '}
+        {estimatedWinnings ? <span>(+{estimatedReturnPercent})</span> : null}
      </div>

+      <AdvancedPanel>
+        <div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">
+          <OutcomeLabel outcome={betChoice} /> shares
+        </div>
+        <div>
+          {formatWithCommas(shares)} of{' '}
+          {formatWithCommas(shares + contract.totalShares[betChoice])}
+        </div>
+
+        <div className="mt-2 mb-1 text-sm text-gray-400">
+          Current payout if <OutcomeLabel outcome={betChoice} />
+        </div>
+        <div>
+          {formatMoney(
+            betAmount
+              ? calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract, {
+                  outcome: betChoice,
+                  amount: betAmount,
+                  shares,
+                } as Bet)
+              : 0
+          )}
+        </div>
+      </AdvancedPanel>
+
      <Spacer h={6} />

      {user ? (
@ -174,21 +221,18 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
          )}
          onClick={betDisabled ? undefined : submitBet}
        >
-          {isSubmitting ? 'Submitting...' : 'Place bet'}
+          {isSubmitting ? 'Submitting...' : 'Submit trade'}
        </button>
      ) : (
        <button
          className="btn mt-4 border-none normal-case text-lg font-medium px-10 bg-gradient-to-r from-teal-500 to-green-500 hover:from-teal-600 hover:to-green-600"
          onClick={firebaseLogin}
        >
-          Sign in to bet!
+          Sign in to trade!
        </button>
      )}

-      {wasSubmitted && <div className="mt-4">Bet submitted!</div>}
+      {wasSubmitted && <div className="mt-4">Trade submitted!</div>}
    </Col>
  )
 }
-
-const functions = getFunctions()
-export const placeBet = httpsCallable(functions, 'placeBet')
--- a/web/components/bets-list.tsx
+++ b/web/components/bets-list.tsx
@ -2,10 +2,16 @@ import Link from 'next/link'
 import _ from 'lodash'
 import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+
 import { useUserBets } from '../hooks/use-user-bets'
 import { Bet } from '../lib/firebase/bets'
 import { User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
-import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from '../lib/util/format'
+import {
+  formatMoney,
+  formatPercent,
+  formatWithCommas,
+} from '../lib/util/format'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { Contract, getContractFromId, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
@ -13,10 +19,12 @@ import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { UserLink } from './user-page'
 import {
  calculatePayout,
-  currentValue,
+  calculateSaleAmount,
  resolvedPayout,
-} from '../lib/calculation/contract'
-import clsx from 'clsx'
+} from '../lib/calculate'
+import { sellBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
+import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
+import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel, MarketLabel } from './outcome-label'

 export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
  const { user } = props
@ -65,19 +73,26 @@ export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
    contracts,
    (contract) => contract.isResolved
  )
+
  const currentBets = _.sumBy(unresolved, (contract) =>
-    _.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => bet.amount)
+    _.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => {
+      if (bet.isSold || bet.sale) return 0
+      return bet.amount
+    })
  )

  const currentBetsValue = _.sumBy(unresolved, (contract) =>
-    _.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => currentValue(contract, bet))
+    _.sumBy(contractBets[contract.id], (bet) => {
+      if (bet.isSold || bet.sale) return 0
+      return calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'MKT')
+    })
  )

  return (
    <Col className="mt-6 gap-6">
      <Row className="gap-8">
        <Col>
-          <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Active bets</div>
+          <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Currently invested</div>
          <div>{formatMoney(currentBets)}</div>
        </Col>
        <Col>
@ -168,41 +183,49 @@ function MyContractBets(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
 export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
  contract: Contract
  bets: Bet[]
+  showMKT?: boolean
  className?: string
 }) {
-  const { bets, contract, className } = props
+  const { bets, contract, showMKT, className } = props
  const { resolution } = contract

-  const betsTotal = _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => bet.amount)
+  const excludeSales = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
+  const betsTotal = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => bet.amount)

  const betsPayout = resolution
-    ? _.sumBy(bets, (bet) => resolvedPayout(contract, bet))
+    ? _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => resolvedPayout(contract, bet))
    : 0

-  const yesWinnings = _.sumBy(bets, (bet) =>
+  const yesWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
    calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
  )
-  const noWinnings = _.sumBy(bets, (bet) =>
+  const noWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
    calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
  )

+  const marketWinnings = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) =>
+    calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'MKT')
+  )
+
  return (
-    <Row className={clsx('gap-4 sm:gap-6', className)}>
+    <Row
+      className={clsx(
+        'gap-4 sm:gap-6',
+        showMKT && 'flex-wrap sm:flex-nowrap',
+        className
+      )}
+    >
      <Col>
-        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500 whitespace-nowrap">
-          Total bets
-        </div>
+        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500 whitespace-nowrap">Invested</div>
        <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(betsTotal)}</div>
      </Col>
      {resolution ? (
-        <>
-          <Col>
-            <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Payout</div>
-            <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(betsPayout)}</div>
-          </Col>
-        </>
+        <Col>
+          <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Payout</div>
+          <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(betsPayout)}</div>
+        </Col>
      ) : (
-        <>
+        <Row className="gap-4 sm:gap-6">
          <Col>
            <div className="text-sm text-gray-500 whitespace-nowrap">
              Payout if <YesLabel />
@ -215,7 +238,17 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
            </div>
            <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(noWinnings)}</div>
          </Col>
-        </>
+          {showMKT && (
+            <Col>
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-500 whitespace-nowrap">
+                Payout if <MarketLabel />
+              </div>
+              <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+                {formatMoney(marketWinnings)}
+              </div>
+            </Col>
+          )}
+        </Row>
      )}
    </Row>
  )
@ -228,6 +261,11 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
 }) {
  const { contract, bets, className } = props

+  const [sales, buys] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.sale)
+  const salesDict = _.fromPairs(
+    sales.map((sale) => [sale.sale?.betId ?? '', sale])
+  )
+
  const { isResolved } = contract

  return (
@ -237,15 +275,21 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
          <tr className="p-2">
            <th>Date</th>
            <th>Outcome</th>
-            <th>Bet</th>
+            <th>Amount</th>
            <th>Probability</th>
-            {!isResolved && <th>Est. max payout</th>}
-            <th>{isResolved ? <>Payout</> : <>Current value</>}</th>
+            <th>Shares</th>
+            <th>{isResolved ? <>Payout</> : <>Sale price</>}</th>
+            <th></th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
-          {bets.map((bet) => (
-            <BetRow key={bet.id} bet={bet} contract={contract} />
+          {buys.map((bet) => (
+            <BetRow
+              key={bet.id}
+              bet={bet}
+              sale={salesDict[bet.id]}
+              contract={contract}
+            />
          ))}
        </tbody>
      </table>
@ -253,14 +297,22 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
  )
 }

-function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
-  const { bet, contract } = props
-  const { amount, outcome, createdTime, probBefore, probAfter, dpmWeight } = bet
+function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract; sale?: Bet }) {
+  const { bet, sale, contract } = props
+  const {
+    amount,
+    outcome,
+    createdTime,
+    probBefore,
+    probAfter,
+    shares,
+    isSold,
+  } = bet
  const { isResolved } = contract

  return (
    <tr>
-      <td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, H:mma')}</td>
+      <td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
      <td>
        <OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} />
      </td>
@ -268,34 +320,59 @@ function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
      <td>
        {formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
      </td>
-      {!isResolved && <td>{formatMoney(amount + dpmWeight)}</td>}
+      <td>{formatWithCommas(shares)}</td>
      <td>
-        {formatMoney(
-          isResolved
-            ? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
-            : currentValue(contract, bet)
+        {sale ? (
+          <>{formatMoney(Math.abs(sale.amount))} (sold)</>
+        ) : (
+          formatMoney(
+            isResolved
+              ? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
+              : calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet)
+          )
        )}
      </td>
+
+      {!isResolved && !isSold && (
+        <td className="text-neutral">
+          <SellButton contract={contract} bet={bet} />
+        </td>
+      )}
    </tr>
  )
 }

-function OutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' }) {
-  const { outcome } = props
+function SellButton(props: { contract: Contract; bet: Bet }) {
+  useEffect(() => {
+    // warm up cloud function
+    sellBet({}).catch()
+  }, [])

-  if (outcome === 'YES') return <YesLabel />
-  if (outcome === 'NO') return <NoLabel />
-  return <CancelLabel />
-}
+  const { contract, bet } = props
+  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)

-function YesLabel() {
-  return <span className="text-primary">YES</span>
-}
-
-function NoLabel() {
-  return <span className="text-red-400">NO</span>
-}
-
-function CancelLabel() {
-  return <span className="text-yellow-400">N/A</span>
+  return (
+    <ConfirmationButton
+      id={`sell-${bet.id}`}
+      openModelBtn={{
+        className: clsx('btn-sm', isSubmitting && 'btn-disabled loading'),
+        label: 'Sell',
+      }}
+      submitBtn={{ className: 'btn-primary' }}
+      onSubmit={async () => {
+        setIsSubmitting(true)
+        await sellBet({ contractId: contract.id, betId: bet.id })
+        setIsSubmitting(false)
+      }}
+    >
+      <div className="text-2xl mb-4">
+        Sell <OutcomeLabel outcome={bet.outcome} />
+      </div>
+      <div>
+        Do you want to sell {formatWithCommas(bet.shares)} shares of{' '}
+        <OutcomeLabel outcome={bet.outcome} /> for{' '}
+        {formatMoney(calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet))}?
+      </div>
+    </ConfirmationButton>
+  )
 }
--- a/web/components/contract-card.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract-card.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+import Link from 'next/link'
+import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
+import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { UserLink } from './user-page'
+import { Linkify } from './linkify'
+import { Contract, compute, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { Col } from './layout/col'
+import { parseTags } from '../lib/util/parse'
+import dayjs from 'dayjs'
+
+export function ContractCard(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+  const { question, resolution } = contract
+  const { probPercent } = compute(contract)
+
+  return (
+    <Link href={path(contract)}>
+      <a>
+        <li className="col-span-1 bg-white hover:bg-gray-100 shadow-md rounded-lg divide-y divide-gray-200">
+          <div className="card">
+            <div className="card-body p-6">
+              <Row className="justify-between gap-4 mb-2">
+                <p className="font-medium text-indigo-700">{question}</p>
+                <ResolutionOrChance
+                  className="items-center"
+                  resolution={resolution}
+                  probPercent={probPercent}
+                />
+              </Row>
+              <AbbrContractDetails contract={contract} />
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        </li>
+      </a>
+    </Link>
+  )
+}
+
+export function ResolutionOrChance(props: {
+  resolution?: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL'
+  probPercent: string
+  large?: boolean
+  className?: string
+}) {
+  const { resolution, probPercent, large, className } = props
+
+  const resolutionColor = {
+    YES: 'text-primary',
+    NO: 'text-red-400',
+    MKT: 'text-blue-400',
+    CANCEL: 'text-yellow-400',
+    '': '', // Empty if unresolved
+  }[resolution || '']
+
+  const resolutionText = {
+    YES: 'YES',
+    NO: 'NO',
+    MKT: 'MKT',
+    CANCEL: 'N/A',
+    '': '',
+  }[resolution || '']
+
+  return (
+    <Col className={clsx(large ? 'text-4xl' : 'text-3xl', className)}>
+      {resolution ? (
+        <>
+          <div
+            className={clsx('text-gray-500', large ? 'text-xl' : 'text-base')}
+          >
+            Resolved
+          </div>
+          <div className={resolutionColor}>{resolutionText}</div>
+        </>
+      ) : (
+        <>
+          <div className="text-primary">{probPercent}</div>
+          <div
+            className={clsx('text-primary', large ? 'text-xl' : 'text-base')}
+          >
+            chance
+          </div>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}
+
+export function AbbrContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+  const { truePool } = compute(contract)
+
+  return (
+    <Col className={clsx('text-sm text-gray-500 gap-2')}>
+      <Row className="gap-2 flex-wrap">
+        <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+          <UserLink username={contract.creatorUsername} />
+        </div>
+        <div className="">•</div>
+        <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(truePool)} pool</div>
+      </Row>
+    </Col>
+  )
+}
+
+export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+  const { question, description, closeTime } = contract
+  const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = compute(contract)
+
+  const tags = parseTags(`${question} ${description}`).map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
+
+  return (
+    <Col className="text-sm text-gray-500 gap-2 sm:flex-row sm:flex-wrap">
+      <Row className="gap-2 flex-wrap">
+        <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+          <UserLink username={contract.creatorUsername} />
+        </div>
+        <div className="">•</div>
+        <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+          {resolvedDate ? `${createdDate} - ${resolvedDate}` : createdDate}
+        </div>
+        {!resolvedDate && closeTime && (
+          <>
+            <div className="">•</div>
+            <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+              {closeTime > Date.now() ? 'Closes' : 'Closed'}{' '}
+              {dayjs(closeTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}
+            </div>
+          </>
+        )}
+        <div className="">•</div>
+        <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(truePool)} pool</div>
+      </Row>
+
+      {tags.length > 0 && (
+        <>
+          <div className="hidden sm:block">•</div>
+
+          <Row className="gap-2 flex-wrap">
+            {tags.map((tag) => (
+              <div key={tag} className="bg-gray-100 px-1">
+                <Linkify text={tag} gray />
+              </div>
+            ))}
+          </Row>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/components/contract-feed.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract-feed.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,471 @@
+// From https://tailwindui.com/components/application-ui/lists/feeds
+import { useState } from 'react'
+import {
+  BanIcon,
+  ChatAltIcon,
+  CheckIcon,
+  LockClosedIcon,
+  StarIcon,
+  UserIcon,
+  UsersIcon,
+  XIcon,
+} from '@heroicons/react/solid'
+import { useBets } from '../hooks/use-bets'
+import { Bet } from '../lib/firebase/bets'
+import { Comment, mapCommentsByBetId } from '../lib/firebase/comments'
+import dayjs from 'dayjs'
+import relativeTime from 'dayjs/plugin/relativeTime'
+import { OutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
+import { Contract, setContract } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
+import { Linkify } from './linkify'
+import { Row } from './layout/row'
+import { createComment } from '../lib/firebase/comments'
+import { useComments } from '../hooks/use-comments'
+import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+dayjs.extend(relativeTime)
+
+function FeedComment(props: { activityItem: any }) {
+  const { activityItem } = props
+  const { person, text, amount, outcome, createdTime } = activityItem
+  return (
+    <>
+      <div className="relative">
+        <img
+          className="h-10 w-10 rounded-full bg-gray-400 flex items-center justify-center ring-8 ring-gray-50"
+          src={person.avatarUrl}
+          alt=""
+        />
+
+        <span className="absolute -bottom-3 -right-2 bg-gray-50 rounded-tl px-0.5 py-px">
+          <ChatAltIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-400" aria-hidden="true" />
+        </span>
+      </div>
+      <div className="min-w-0 flex-1">
+        <div>
+          <p className="mt-0.5 text-sm text-gray-500">
+            <a href={person.href} className="font-medium text-gray-900">
+              {person.name}
+            </a>{' '}
+            placed M$ {amount} on <OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} />{' '}
+            <Timestamp time={createdTime} />
+          </p>
+        </div>
+        <div className="mt-2 text-gray-700">
+          <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap">
+            <Linkify text={text} />
+          </p>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+function Timestamp(props: { time: number }) {
+  const { time } = props
+  return (
+    <span
+      className="whitespace-nowrap text-gray-300 ml-1"
+      title={dayjs(time).format('MMM D, h:mma')}
+    >
+      {dayjs(time).fromNow()}
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+function FeedBet(props: { activityItem: any }) {
+  const { activityItem } = props
+  const { id, contractId, amount, outcome, createdTime } = activityItem
+  const user = useUser()
+  const isCreator = user?.id == activityItem.userId
+
+  const [comment, setComment] = useState('')
+  async function submitComment() {
+    if (!user || !comment) return
+    await createComment(contractId, id, comment, user)
+  }
+  return (
+    <>
+      <div>
+        <div className="relative px-1">
+          <div className="h-8 w-8 bg-gray-200 rounded-full ring-8 ring-gray-50 flex items-center justify-center">
+            <UserIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500" aria-hidden="true" />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <div className="min-w-0 flex-1 py-1.5">
+        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">
+          <span className="text-gray-900">
+            {isCreator ? 'You' : 'A trader'}
+          </span>{' '}
+          placed {formatMoney(amount)} on <OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} />{' '}
+          <Timestamp time={createdTime} />
+          {isCreator && (
+            // Allow user to comment in an textarea if they are the creator
+            <div className="mt-2">
+              <textarea
+                value={comment}
+                onChange={(e) => setComment(e.target.value)}
+                className="textarea textarea-bordered w-full"
+                placeholder="Add a comment..."
+              />
+              <button
+                className="btn btn-outline btn-sm mt-1"
+                onClick={submitComment}
+              >
+                Comment
+              </button>
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+export function ContractDescription(props: {
+  contract: Contract
+  isCreator: boolean
+}) {
+  const { contract, isCreator } = props
+  const [editing, setEditing] = useState(false)
+  const editStatement = () => `${dayjs().format('MMM D, h:mma')}: `
+  const [description, setDescription] = useState(editStatement())
+
+  // Append the new description (after a newline)
+  async function saveDescription(e: any) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    setEditing(false)
+    contract.description = `${contract.description}\n${description}`.trim()
+    await setContract(contract)
+    setDescription(editStatement())
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="whitespace-pre-line break-words mt-2 text-gray-700">
+      <Linkify text={contract.description} />
+      <br />
+      {isCreator &&
+        !contract.resolution &&
+        (editing ? (
+          <form className="mt-4">
+            <textarea
+              className="textarea h-24 textarea-bordered w-full mb-1"
+              value={description}
+              onChange={(e) => setDescription(e.target.value || '')}
+              autoFocus
+              onFocus={(e) =>
+                // Focus starts at end of description.
+                e.target.setSelectionRange(
+                  description.length,
+                  description.length
+                )
+              }
+            />
+            <Row className="gap-2">
+              <button
+                className="btn btn-neutral btn-outline btn-sm"
+                onClick={saveDescription}
+              >
+                Save
+              </button>
+              <button
+                className="btn btn-error btn-outline btn-sm"
+                onClick={() => setEditing(false)}
+              >
+                Cancel
+              </button>
+            </Row>
+          </form>
+        ) : (
+          <Row>
+            <button
+              className="btn btn-neutral btn-outline btn-sm mt-4"
+              onClick={() => setEditing(true)}
+            >
+              Add to description
+            </button>
+          </Row>
+        ))}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+function FeedStart(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+  const user = useUser()
+  const isCreator = user?.id === contract.creatorId
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      <div>
+        <div className="relative px-1">
+          <div className="h-8 w-8 bg-gray-200 rounded-full ring-8 ring-gray-50 flex items-center justify-center">
+            <StarIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500" aria-hidden="true" />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <div className="min-w-0 flex-1 py-1.5">
+        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">
+          <span className="text-gray-900">{contract.creatorName}</span> created
+          this market <Timestamp time={contract.createdTime} />
+        </div>
+        <ContractDescription contract={contract} isCreator={isCreator} />
+      </div>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+function OutcomeIcon(props: { outcome?: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' }) {
+  const { outcome } = props
+  switch (outcome) {
+    case 'YES':
+      return <CheckIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500" aria-hidden="true" />
+    case 'NO':
+      return <XIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500" aria-hidden="true" />
+    case 'CANCEL':
+    default:
+      return <BanIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500" aria-hidden="true" />
+  }
+}
+
+function FeedResolve(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+  const resolution = contract.resolution || 'CANCEL'
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      <div>
+        <div className="relative px-1">
+          <div className="h-8 w-8 bg-gray-200 rounded-full ring-8 ring-gray-50 flex items-center justify-center">
+            <OutcomeIcon outcome={resolution} />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <div className="min-w-0 flex-1 py-1.5">
+        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">
+          <span className="text-gray-900">{contract.creatorName}</span> resolved
+          this market to <OutcomeLabel outcome={resolution} />{' '}
+          <Timestamp time={contract.resolutionTime || 0} />
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+function FeedClose(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      <div>
+        <div className="relative px-1">
+          <div className="h-8 w-8 bg-gray-200 rounded-full ring-8 ring-gray-50 flex items-center justify-center">
+            <LockClosedIcon
+              className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500"
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <div className="min-w-0 flex-1 py-1.5">
+        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">
+          Trading closed in this market{' '}
+          <Timestamp time={contract.closeTime || 0} />
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+function toFeedBet(bet: Bet) {
+  return {
+    id: bet.id,
+    contractId: bet.contractId,
+    userId: bet.userId,
+    type: 'bet',
+    amount: bet.amount,
+    outcome: bet.outcome,
+    createdTime: bet.createdTime,
+    date: dayjs(bet.createdTime).fromNow(),
+  }
+}
+
+function toFeedComment(bet: Bet, comment: Comment) {
+  return {
+    id: bet.id,
+    contractId: bet.contractId,
+    userId: bet.userId,
+    type: 'comment',
+    amount: bet.amount,
+    outcome: bet.outcome,
+    createdTime: bet.createdTime,
+    date: dayjs(bet.createdTime).fromNow(),
+
+    // Invariant: bet.comment exists
+    text: comment.text,
+    person: {
+      href: `/${comment.userUsername}`,
+      name: comment.userName,
+      avatarUrl: comment.userAvatarUrl,
+    },
+  }
+}
+
+// Group together bets that are:
+// - Within 24h of the first in the group
+// - Do not have a comment
+// - Were not created by this user
+// Return a list of ActivityItems
+function group(bets: Bet[], comments: Comment[], userId?: string) {
+  const commentsMap = mapCommentsByBetId(comments)
+  const items: any[] = []
+  let group: Bet[] = []
+
+  // Turn the current group into an ActivityItem
+  function pushGroup() {
+    if (group.length == 1) {
+      items.push(toActivityItem(group[0]))
+    } else if (group.length > 1) {
+      items.push({ type: 'betgroup', bets: [...group], id: group[0].id })
+    }
+    group = []
+  }
+
+  function toActivityItem(bet: Bet) {
+    const comment = commentsMap[bet.id]
+    return comment ? toFeedComment(bet, comment) : toFeedBet(bet)
+  }
+
+  for (const bet of bets) {
+    const isCreator = userId === bet.userId
+
+    if (commentsMap[bet.id] || isCreator) {
+      pushGroup()
+      // Create a single item for this
+      items.push(toActivityItem(bet))
+    } else {
+      if (
+        group.length > 0 &&
+        dayjs(bet.createdTime).diff(dayjs(group[0].createdTime), 'hour') > 24
+      ) {
+        // More than 24h has passed; start a new group
+        pushGroup()
+      }
+      group.push(bet)
+    }
+  }
+  if (group.length > 0) {
+    pushGroup()
+  }
+  return items as ActivityItem[]
+}
+
+// TODO: Make this expandable to show all grouped bets?
+function FeedBetGroup(props: { activityItem: any }) {
+  const { activityItem } = props
+  const bets: Bet[] = activityItem.bets
+
+  const yesAmount = bets
+    .filter((b) => b.outcome == 'YES')
+    .reduce((acc, bet) => acc + bet.amount, 0)
+  const yesSpan = yesAmount ? (
+    <span>
+      {formatMoney(yesAmount)} on <OutcomeLabel outcome={'YES'} />
+    </span>
+  ) : null
+  const noAmount = bets
+    .filter((b) => b.outcome == 'NO')
+    .reduce((acc, bet) => acc + bet.amount, 0)
+  const noSpan = noAmount ? (
+    <span>
+      {formatMoney(noAmount)} on <OutcomeLabel outcome={'NO'} />
+    </span>
+  ) : null
+  const traderCount = bets.length
+  const createdTime = bets[0].createdTime
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      <div>
+        <div className="relative px-1">
+          <div className="h-8 w-8 bg-gray-200 rounded-full ring-8 ring-gray-50 flex items-center justify-center">
+            <UsersIcon className="h-5 w-5 text-gray-500" aria-hidden="true" />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <div className="min-w-0 flex-1 py-1.5">
+        <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">
+          <span className="text-gray-900">{traderCount} traders</span> placed{' '}
+          {yesSpan}
+          {yesAmount && noAmount ? ' and ' : ''}
+          {noSpan} <Timestamp time={createdTime} />
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+// Missing feed items:
+// - Bet sold?
+type ActivityItem = {
+  id: string
+  type: 'bet' | 'comment' | 'start' | 'betgroup' | 'close' | 'resolve'
+}
+
+export function ContractFeed(props: { contract: Contract }) {
+  const { contract } = props
+  const { id } = contract
+  const user = useUser()
+
+  let bets = useBets(id)
+  if (bets === 'loading') bets = []
+
+  let comments = useComments(id)
+  if (comments === 'loading') comments = []
+
+  const allItems = [
+    { type: 'start', id: 0 },
+    ...group(bets, comments, user?.id),
+  ]
+  if (contract.closeTime && contract.closeTime <= Date.now()) {
+    allItems.push({ type: 'close', id: `${contract.closeTime}` })
+  }
+  if (contract.resolution) {
+    allItems.push({ type: 'resolve', id: `${contract.resolutionTime}` })
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="flow-root">
+      <ul role="list" className="-mb-8">
+        {allItems.map((activityItem, activityItemIdx) => (
+          <li key={activityItem.id}>
+            <div className="relative pb-8">
+              {activityItemIdx !== allItems.length - 1 ? (
+                <span
+                  className="absolute top-5 left-5 -ml-px h-full w-0.5 bg-gray-200"
+                  aria-hidden="true"
+                />
+              ) : null}
+              <div className="relative flex items-start space-x-3">
+                {activityItem.type === 'start' ? (
+                  <FeedStart contract={contract} />
+                ) : activityItem.type === 'comment' ? (
+                  <FeedComment activityItem={activityItem} />
+                ) : activityItem.type === 'bet' ? (
+                  <FeedBet activityItem={activityItem} />
+                ) : activityItem.type === 'betgroup' ? (
+                  <FeedBetGroup activityItem={activityItem} />
+                ) : activityItem.type === 'close' ? (
+                  <FeedClose contract={contract} />
+                ) : activityItem.type === 'resolve' ? (
+                  <FeedResolve contract={contract} />
+                ) : null}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          </li>
+        ))}
+      </ul>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/components/contract-overview.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract-overview.tsx
@ -1,132 +1,72 @@
-import { useState } from 'react'
 import {
  compute,
  Contract,
  deleteContract,
-  setContract,
+  path,
 } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { ContractProbGraph } from './contract-prob-graph'
-import { ContractDetails } from './contracts-list'
 import router from 'next/router'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
-import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { Linkify } from './linkify'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
-
-function ContractDescription(props: {
-  contract: Contract
-  isCreator: boolean
-}) {
-  const { contract, isCreator } = props
-  const [editing, setEditing] = useState(false)
-  const editStatement = () => `${dayjs().format('MMM D, h:mma')}: `
-  const [description, setDescription] = useState(editStatement())
-
-  // Append the new description (after a newline)
-  async function saveDescription(e: any) {
-    e.preventDefault()
-    setEditing(false)
-    contract.description = `${contract.description}\n${description}`.trim()
-    await setContract(contract)
-    setDescription(editStatement())
-  }
-
-  return (
-    <div className="whitespace-pre-line">
-      <Linkify text={contract.description} />
-      <br />
-      {isCreator &&
-        !contract.resolution &&
-        (editing ? (
-          <form className="mt-4">
-            <textarea
-              className="textarea h-24 textarea-bordered w-full mb-2"
-              value={description}
-              onChange={(e) => setDescription(e.target.value || '')}
-              autoFocus
-              onFocus={(e) =>
-                // Focus starts at end of description.
-                e.target.setSelectionRange(
-                  description.length,
-                  description.length
-                )
-              }
-            />
-            <Row className="gap-4 justify-end">
-              <button
-                className="btn btn-error btn-outline btn-sm mt-2"
-                onClick={() => setEditing(false)}
-              >
-                Cancel
-              </button>
-              <button
-                className="btn btn-neutral btn-outline btn-sm mt-2"
-                onClick={saveDescription}
-              >
-                Save
-              </button>
-            </Row>
-          </form>
-        ) : (
-          <Row className="justify-end">
-            <button
-              className="btn btn-neutral btn-outline btn-sm mt-4"
-              onClick={() => setEditing(true)}
-            >
-              Add to description
-            </button>
-          </Row>
-        ))}
-    </div>
-  )
-}
+import { ContractDetails, ResolutionOrChance } from './contract-card'
+import { ContractFeed } from './contract-feed'
+import { TweetButton } from './tweet-button'

 export const ContractOverview = (props: {
  contract: Contract
  className?: string
 }) => {
  const { contract, className } = props
-  const { resolution, creatorId } = contract
-  const { probPercent, volume } = compute(contract)
+  const { resolution, creatorId, creatorName } = contract
+  const { probPercent, truePool } = compute(contract)

  const user = useUser()
  const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId

-  const resolutionColor = {
-    YES: 'text-primary',
-    NO: 'text-red-400',
-    CANCEL: 'text-yellow-400',
-    '': '', // Empty if unresolved
-  }[contract.resolution || '']
+  const tweetQuestion = isCreator
+    ? contract.question
+    : `${creatorName}: ${contract.question}`
+  const tweetDescription = resolution
+    ? isCreator
+      ? `Resolved ${resolution}!`
+      : `Resolved ${resolution} by ${creatorName}:`
+    : `Currently ${probPercent} chance, place your bets here:`
+  const url = `https://manifold.markets${path(contract)}`
+  const tweetText = `${tweetQuestion}\n\n${tweetDescription}\n\n${url}`

  return (
    <Col className={clsx('mb-6', className)}>
-      <Col className="justify-between md:flex-row">
-        <Col>
-          <div className="text-3xl text-indigo-700 mb-4">
+      <Row className="justify-between gap-4">
+        <Col className="gap-4">
+          <div className="text-2xl md:text-3xl text-indigo-700">
            <Linkify text={contract.question} />
          </div>

+          <ResolutionOrChance
+            className="md:hidden"
+            resolution={resolution}
+            probPercent={probPercent}
+            large
+          />
+
          <ContractDetails contract={contract} />
+          <TweetButton className="self-end md:hidden" tweetText={tweetText} />
        </Col>

-        {resolution ? (
-          <Col className="text-4xl mt-8 md:mt-0 md:ml-4 md:mr-6 items-end self-center md:self-start">
-            <div className="text-xl text-gray-500">Resolved</div>
-            <div className={resolutionColor}>
-              {resolution === 'CANCEL' ? 'N/A' : resolution}
-            </div>
-          </Col>
-        ) : (
-          <Col className="text-4xl mt-8 md:mt-0 md:ml-4 md:mr-6 text-primary items-end self-center md:self-start">
-            {probPercent}
-            <div className="text-xl">chance</div>
-          </Col>
-        )}
-      </Col>
+        <Col className="hidden md:flex justify-between items-end">
+          <ResolutionOrChance
+            className="items-end"
+            resolution={resolution}
+            probPercent={probPercent}
+            large
+          />
+          <TweetButton className="mt-6" tweetText={tweetText} />
+        </Col>
+      </Row>

      <Spacer h={4} />

@ -134,13 +74,8 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {

      <Spacer h={12} />

-      {((isCreator && !contract.resolution) || contract.description) && (
-        <label className="text-gray-500 mb-2 text-sm">Description</label>
-      )}
-      <ContractDescription contract={contract} isCreator={isCreator} />
-
      {/* Show a delete button for contracts without any trading */}
-      {isCreator && volume === 0 && (
+      {isCreator && truePool === 0 && (
        <>
          <Spacer h={8} />
          <button
@ -155,6 +90,8 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
          </button>
        </>
      )}
+
+      <ContractFeed contract={contract} />
    </Col>
  )
 }
--- a/web/components/contracts-list.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contracts-list.tsx
@ -3,84 +3,15 @@ import Link from 'next/link'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'

-import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
-import {
-  compute,
-  Contract,
-  listContracts,
-  path,
-} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
-import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { compute, Contract, listContracts } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
-import { UserLink } from './user-page'
-import { Linkify } from './linkify'
+import { Col } from './layout/col'
+import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
+import { parseTags } from '../lib/util/parse'
+import { ContractCard } from './contract-card'
+import { Sort, useQueryAndSortParams } from '../hooks/use-sort-and-query-params'

-export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
-  const { contract } = props
-  const { volume, createdDate, resolvedDate } = compute(contract)
-
-  return (
-    <Row className="flex-wrap text-sm text-gray-500">
-      <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
-        <UserLink username={contract.creatorUsername} />
-      </div>
-      <div className="mx-2">•</div>
-      <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
-        {resolvedDate ? `${createdDate} - ${resolvedDate}` : createdDate}
-      </div>
-      <div className="mx-2">•</div>
-      <div className="whitespace-nowrap">{formatMoney(volume)} volume</div>
-    </Row>
-  )
-}
-
-function ContractCard(props: { contract: Contract }) {
-  const { contract } = props
-  const { probPercent } = compute(contract)
-
-  const resolutionColor = {
-    YES: 'text-primary',
-    NO: 'text-red-400',
-    CANCEL: 'text-yellow-400',
-    '': '', // Empty if unresolved
-  }[contract.resolution || '']
-
-  const resolutionText = {
-    YES: 'YES',
-    NO: 'NO',
-    CANCEL: 'N/A',
-    '': '',
-  }[contract.resolution || '']
-
-  return (
-    <Link href={path(contract)}>
-      <a>
-        <li className="col-span-1 bg-white hover:bg-gray-100 shadow-xl rounded-lg divide-y divide-gray-200">
-          <div className="card">
-            <div className="card-body p-6">
-              <Row className="justify-between gap-4 mb-2">
-                <p className="font-medium text-indigo-700">
-                  <Linkify text={contract.question} />
-                </p>
-                <div className={clsx('text-4xl', resolutionColor)}>
-                  {resolutionText || (
-                    <div className="text-primary">
-                      {probPercent}
-                      <div className="text-lg">chance</div>
-                    </div>
-                  )}
-                </div>
-              </Row>
-              <ContractDetails contract={contract} />
-            </div>
-          </div>
-        </li>
-      </a>
-    </Link>
-  )
-}
-
-function ContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
+export function ContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
  const [resolvedContracts, activeContracts] = _.partition(
    props.contracts,
    (c) => c.isResolved
@ -110,14 +41,122 @@ function ContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
  )
 }

-type Sort = 'createdTime' | 'volume' | 'resolved' | 'all'
+const MAX_GROUPED_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED = 6
+
+function CreatorContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
+  const { contracts } = props
+
+  const byCreator = _.groupBy(contracts, (contract) => contract.creatorId)
+  const creatorIds = _.sortBy(Object.keys(byCreator), (creatorId) =>
+    _.sumBy(byCreator[creatorId], (contract) => -1 * compute(contract).truePool)
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <Col className="gap-6">
+      {creatorIds.map((creatorId) => {
+        const { creatorUsername, creatorName } = byCreator[creatorId][0]
+
+        return (
+          <Col className="gap-4" key={creatorUsername}>
+            <SiteLink className="text-lg" href={`/${creatorUsername}`}>
+              {creatorName}
+            </SiteLink>
+
+            <ul role="list" className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
+              {byCreator[creatorId]
+                .slice(0, MAX_GROUPED_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED)
+                .map((contract) => (
+                  <ContractCard contract={contract} key={contract.id} />
+                ))}
+            </ul>
+
+            {byCreator[creatorId].length > MAX_GROUPED_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED ? (
+              <Link href={`/${creatorUsername}`}>
+                <a
+                  className={clsx(
+                    'self-end hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2'
+                  )}
+                  onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                >
+                  See all
+                </a>
+              </Link>
+            ) : (
+              <div />
+            )}
+          </Col>
+        )
+      })}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}
+
+function TagContractsGrid(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
+  const { contracts } = props
+
+  const contractTags = _.flatMap(contracts, (contract) =>
+    parseTags(contract.question + ' ' + contract.description).map((tag) => ({
+      tag,
+      contract,
+    }))
+  )
+  const groupedByTag = _.groupBy(contractTags, ({ tag }) => tag)
+  const byTag = _.mapValues(groupedByTag, (contractTags) =>
+    contractTags.map(({ contract }) => contract)
+  )
+  const tags = _.sortBy(Object.keys(byTag), (tag) =>
+    _.sumBy(byTag[tag], (contract) => -1 * compute(contract).truePool)
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <Col className="gap-6">
+      {tags.map((tag) => {
+        return (
+          <Col className="gap-4" key={tag}>
+            <SiteLink className="text-lg" href={`/tag/${tag}`}>
+              #{tag}
+            </SiteLink>
+
+            <ul role="list" className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
+              {byTag[tag]
+                .slice(0, MAX_GROUPED_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED)
+                .map((contract) => (
+                  <ContractCard contract={contract} key={contract.id} />
+                ))}
+            </ul>
+
+            {byTag[tag].length > MAX_GROUPED_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED ? (
+              <Link href={`/tag/${tag}`}>
+                <a
+                  className={clsx(
+                    'self-end hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2'
+                  )}
+                  onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                >
+                  See all
+                </a>
+              </Link>
+            ) : (
+              <div />
+            )}
+          </Col>
+        )
+      })}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}
+
+const MAX_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED = 99
+
 export function SearchableGrid(props: {
  contracts: Contract[]
-  defaultSort?: Sort
+  query: string
+  setQuery: (query: string) => void
+  sort: Sort
+  setSort: (sort: Sort) => void
+  byOneCreator?: boolean
 }) {
-  const { contracts, defaultSort } = props
-  const [query, setQuery] = useState('')
-  const [sort, setSort] = useState(defaultSort || 'volume')
+  const { contracts, query, setQuery, sort, setSort, byOneCreator } = props

  function check(corpus: String) {
    return corpus.toLowerCase().includes(query.toLowerCase())
@ -130,10 +169,10 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
      check(c.creatorUsername)
  )

-  if (sort === 'createdTime' || sort === 'resolved' || sort === 'all') {
+  if (sort === 'newest' || sort === 'resolved' || sort === 'all') {
    matches.sort((a, b) => b.createdTime - a.createdTime)
-  } else if (sort === 'volume') {
-    matches.sort((a, b) => compute(b).volume - compute(a).volume)
+  } else if (sort === 'most-traded' || sort === 'creator' || sort === 'tag') {
+    matches.sort((a, b) => compute(b).truePool - compute(a).truePool)
  }

  if (sort !== 'all') {
@ -143,6 +182,9 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
    )
  }

+  if (matches.length > MAX_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED)
+    matches = _.slice(matches, 0, MAX_CONTRACTS_DISPLAYED)
+
  return (
    <div>
      {/* Show a search input next to a sort dropdown */}
@ -159,22 +201,37 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
          value={sort}
          onChange={(e) => setSort(e.target.value as Sort)}
        >
-          <option value="volume">Most traded</option>
-          <option value="createdTime">Newest first</option>
+          {byOneCreator ? (
+            <option value="all">All markets</option>
+          ) : (
+            <option value="creator">By creator</option>
+          )}
+          <option value="tag">By tag</option>
+          <option value="most-traded">Most traded</option>
+          <option value="newest">Newest</option>
          <option value="resolved">Resolved</option>
-          <option value="all">All markets</option>
        </select>
      </div>

-      <ContractsGrid contracts={matches} />
+      {sort === 'tag' ? (
+        <TagContractsGrid contracts={matches} />
+      ) : !byOneCreator && (sort === 'creator' || sort === 'resolved') ? (
+        <CreatorContractsGrid contracts={matches} />
+      ) : (
+        <ContractsGrid contracts={matches} />
+      )}
    </div>
  )
 }

-export function ContractsList(props: { creator: User }) {
+export function CreatorContractsList(props: { creator: User }) {
  const { creator } = props
  const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | 'loading'>('loading')

+  const { query, setQuery, sort, setSort } = useQueryAndSortParams({
+    defaultSort: 'all',
+  })
+
  useEffect(() => {
    if (creator?.id) {
      // TODO: stream changes from firestore
@ -184,5 +241,14 @@ export function ContractsList(props: { creator: User }) {

  if (contracts === 'loading') return <></>

-  return <SearchableGrid contracts={contracts} defaultSort="all" />
+  return (
+    <SearchableGrid
+      contracts={contracts}
+      byOneCreator
+      query={query}
+      setQuery={setQuery}
+      sort={sort}
+      setSort={setSort}
+    />
+  )
 }
--- a/web/components/linkify.tsx
+++ b/web/components/linkify.tsx
@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
-import Link from 'next/link'
 import { Fragment } from 'react'
+import { SiteLink } from './site-link'

 // Return a JSX span, linkifying @username, #hashtags, and https://...
-export function Linkify(props: { text: string }) {
-  const { text } = props
+export function Linkify(props: { text: string; gray?: boolean }) {
+  const { text, gray } = props
  const regex = /(?:^|\s)(?:[@#][a-z0-9_]+|https?:\/\/\S+)/gi
  const matches = text.match(regex) || []
  const links = matches.map((match) => {
@ -15,17 +15,18 @@ export function Linkify(props: { text: string }) {
      {
        '@': `/${tag}`,
        '#': `/tag/${tag}`,
-      }[symbol] ?? match
+      }[symbol] ?? match.trim()

    return (
      <>
        {whitespace}
-        <Link href={href}>
-          <a className="text-indigo-700 hover:underline hover:decoration-2">
-            {symbol}
-            {tag}
-          </a>
-        </Link>
+        <SiteLink
+          className={gray ? 'text-gray-500' : 'text-indigo-700'}
+          href={href}
+        >
+          {symbol}
+          {tag}
+        </SiteLink>
      </>
    )
  })
--- a/web/components/mantic-logo.tsx
+++ b/web/components/mantic-logo.tsx
@ -14,12 +14,11 @@ export function ManticLogo(props: { darkBackground?: boolean }) {
        />
        <div
          className={clsx(
-            'font-major-mono lowercase mt-1 sm:text-2xl md:whitespace-nowrap',
+            'hidden sm:flex font-major-mono lowercase mt-1 sm:text-2xl md:whitespace-nowrap',
            darkBackground && 'text-white'
          )}
-          style={{ fontFamily: 'Major Mono Display,monospace' }}
        >
-          Mantic Markets
+          Manifold Markets
        </div>
      </a>
    </Link>
--- a/web/components/menu.tsx
+++ b/web/components/menu.tsx
@ -34,6 +34,7 @@ export function MenuButton(props: {
              {({ active }) => (
                <a
                  href={item.href}
+                  target={item.href.startsWith('http') ? '_blank' : undefined}
                  onClick={item.onClick}
                  className={clsx(
                    active ? 'bg-gray-100' : '',
--- a/web/components/nav-bar.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav-bar.tsx
@ -22,14 +22,7 @@ export function NavBar(props: {
  const themeClasses = clsx(darkBackground && 'text-white', hoverClasses)

  return (
-    <nav
-      className={clsx(
-        'w-full p-4 mb-4 shadow-sm',
-        !darkBackground && 'bg-white',
-        className
-      )}
-      aria-label="Global"
-    >
+    <nav className={clsx('w-full p-4 mb-4', className)} aria-label="Global">
      <Row
        className={clsx(
          'justify-between items-center mx-auto sm:px-4',
--- a/web/components/outcome-label.tsx
+++ b/web/components/outcome-label.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+export function OutcomeLabel(props: {
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
+}) {
+  const { outcome } = props
+
+  if (outcome === 'YES') return <YesLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'NO') return <NoLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'MKT') return <MarketLabel />
+  return <CancelLabel />
+}
+
+export function YesLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-primary">YES</span>
+}
+
+export function NoLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-red-400">NO</span>
+}
+
+export function CancelLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-yellow-400">N/A</span>
+}
+
+export function MarketLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-blue-400">MKT</span>
+}
--- a/web/components/page.tsx
+++ b/web/components/page.tsx
@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ export function Page(props: { wide?: boolean; children?: any }) {
  return (
    <div>
      <NavBar wide={wide} />
+
      <div
        className={clsx(
          'w-full px-4 pb-8 mx-auto',
--- a/web/components/profile-menu.tsx
+++ b/web/components/profile-menu.tsx
@ -41,8 +41,8 @@ function getNavigationOptions(user: User, options: { mobile: boolean }) {
        ]
      : []),
    {
-      name: 'Your bets',
-      href: '/bets',
+      name: 'Your trades',
+      href: '/trades',
    },
    {
      name: 'Your markets',
@ -57,6 +57,10 @@ function getNavigationOptions(user: User, options: { mobile: boolean }) {
      href: '#',
      onClick: () => firebaseLogout(),
    },
+    {
+      name: 'Discord',
+      href: 'https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh',
+    },
  ]
 }

@ -67,7 +71,7 @@ function ProfileSummary(props: { user: User }) {
      <div className="rounded-full w-10 h-10 mr-4">
        <Image src={user.avatarUrl} width={40} height={40} />
      </div>
-      <div className="truncate" style={{ maxWidth: 175 }}>
+      <div className="truncate text-left" style={{ maxWidth: 170 }}>
        {user.name}
        <div className="text-gray-700 text-sm">{formatMoney(user.balance)}</div>
      </div>
--- a/web/components/resolution-panel.tsx
+++ b/web/components/resolution-panel.tsx
@ -1,6 +1,5 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
-import React, { useState } from 'react'
-import { getFunctions, httpsCallable } from 'firebase/functions'
+import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'

 import { Contract } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
@ -9,18 +8,23 @@ import { User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
 import { YesNoCancelSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { ConfirmationButton as ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
-
-const functions = getFunctions()
-export const resolveMarket = httpsCallable(functions, 'resolveMarket')
+import { resolveMarket } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'

 export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
  creator: User
  contract: Contract
  className?: string
 }) {
+  useEffect(() => {
+    // warm up cloud function
+    resolveMarket({}).catch()
+  }, [])
+
  const { contract, className } = props

-  const [outcome, setOutcome] = useState<'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | undefined>()
+  const [outcome, setOutcome] = useState<
+    'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
+  >()

  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
  const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
@ -48,11 +52,13 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
      ? 'bg-red-400 hover:bg-red-500'
      : outcome === 'CANCEL'
      ? 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500'
+      : outcome === 'MKT'
+      ? 'bg-blue-400 hover:bg-blue-500'
      : 'btn-disabled'

  return (
    <Col
-      className={clsx('bg-gray-100 shadow-xl px-8 py-6 rounded-md', className)}
+      className={clsx('bg-gray-100 shadow-md px-8 py-6 rounded-md', className)}
    >
      <Title className="mt-0" text="Your market" />

@ -70,18 +76,19 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
      <div>
        {outcome === 'YES' ? (
          <>
-            Winnings will be paid out to YES bettors. You earn 1% of the NO
-            bets.
+            Winnings will be paid out to YES bettors. You earn 1% of the pool.
          </>
        ) : outcome === 'NO' ? (
-          <>
-            Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors. You earn 1% of the YES
-            bets.
-          </>
+          <>Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors. You earn 1% of the pool.</>
        ) : outcome === 'CANCEL' ? (
-          <>All bets will be returned with no fees.</>
+          <>The pool will be returned to traders with no fees.</>
+        ) : outcome === 'MKT' ? (
+          <>
+            Traders will be paid out at the current implied probability. You
+            earn 1% of the pool.
+          </>
        ) : (
-          <>Resolving this market will immediately pay out bettors.</>
+          <>Resolving this market will immediately pay out traders.</>
        )}
      </div>

--- a/web/components/site-link.tsx
+++ b/web/components/site-link.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+import Link from 'next/link'
+
+export const SiteLink = (props: {
+  href: string
+  children: any
+  className?: string
+}) => {
+  const { href, children, className } = props
+
+  return href.startsWith('http') ? (
+    <a
+      href={href}
+      className={clsx(
+        'hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2',
+        className
+      )}
+      onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+    >
+      {children}
+    </a>
+  ) : (
+    <Link href={href}>
+      <a
+        className={clsx(
+          'hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2',
+          className
+        )}
+        onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+      >
+        {children}
+      </a>
+    </Link>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/components/title.tsx
+++ b/web/components/title.tsx
@ -4,10 +4,7 @@ export function Title(props: { text: string; className?: string }) {
  const { text, className } = props
  return (
    <h1
-      className={clsx(
-        'text-3xl font-major-mono text-indigo-700 inline-block my-6',
-        className
-      )}
+      className={clsx('text-3xl text-indigo-700 inline-block my-6', className)}
    >
      {text}
    </h1>
--- a/web/components/tweet-button.tsx
+++ b/web/components/tweet-button.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+
+export function TweetButton(props: { className?: string; tweetText?: string }) {
+  const { tweetText, className } = props
+
+  return (
+    <a
+      className={clsx('btn btn-xs normal-case border-none', className)}
+      style={{ backgroundColor: '#1da1f2', width: 75 }}
+      href={`https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=${encodeURIComponent(
+        tweetText ?? ''
+      )}`}
+      target="_blank"
+    >
+      <img
+        className="mr-2"
+        src={'/twitter-icon-white.svg'}
+        width={15}
+        height={15}
+      />
+      Tweet
+    </a>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/components/user-page.tsx
+++ b/web/components/user-page.tsx
@ -1,28 +1,19 @@
 import { firebaseLogout, User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
-import { ContractsList } from './contracts-list'
+import { CreatorContractsList } from './contracts-list'
 import { Title } from './title'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
-import Link from 'next/link'
-import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { SEO } from './SEO'
 import { Page } from './page'
+import { SiteLink } from './site-link'

 export function UserLink(props: { username: string; className?: string }) {
  const { username, className } = props

  return (
-    <Link href={`/${username}`}>
-      <a
-        className={clsx(
-          'hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2',
-          className
-        )}
-        onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
-      >
-        @{username}
-      </a>
-    </Link>
+    <SiteLink href={`/${username}`} className={className}>
+      @{username}
+    </SiteLink>
  )
 }

@ -67,7 +58,7 @@ export function UserPage(props: { user: User; currentUser?: User }) {

  const isCurrentUser = user.id === currentUser?.id

-  const possesive = isCurrentUser ? 'Your ' : `${user.username}'s `
+  const possesive = isCurrentUser ? 'Your ' : `${user.name}'s `

  return (
    <Page>
@ -81,7 +72,7 @@ export function UserPage(props: { user: User; currentUser?: User }) {

      <Title text={possesive + 'markets'} />

-      <ContractsList creator={user} />
+      <CreatorContractsList creator={user} />
    </Page>
  )
 }
--- a/web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx
+++ b/web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx
@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import React from 'react'
 import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'

 export function YesNoSelector(props: {
@ -30,41 +31,53 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
 }

 export function YesNoCancelSelector(props: {
-  selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
-  onSelect: (selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL') => void
+  selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
+  onSelect: (selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL') => void
  className?: string
  btnClassName?: string
 }) {
  const { selected, onSelect, className } = props

-  const btnClassName = clsx('px-6', props.btnClassName)
+  const btnClassName = clsx('px-6 flex-1', props.btnClassName)

  return (
-    <Row className={clsx('space-x-3', className)}>
-      <Button
-        color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
-        onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
-        className={btnClassName}
-      >
-        YES
-      </Button>
+    <Col>
+      <Row className={clsx('space-x-3 w-full', className)}>
+        <Button
+          color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
+          className={btnClassName}
+        >
+          YES
+        </Button>

-      <Button
-        color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
-        onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
-        className={btnClassName}
-      >
-        NO
-      </Button>
+        <Button
+          color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
+          className={btnClassName}
+        >
+          NO
+        </Button>
+      </Row>

-      <Button
-        color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
-        onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
-        className={btnClassName}
-      >
-        N/A
-      </Button>
-    </Row>
+      <Row className={clsx('space-x-3 w-full', className)}>
+        <Button
+          color={selected === 'MKT' ? 'blue' : 'gray'}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
+          className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
+        >
+          MKT
+        </Button>
+
+        <Button
+          color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
+          className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
+        >
+          N/A
+        </Button>
+      </Row>
+    </Col>
  )
 }

@ -98,7 +111,7 @@ export function FundsSelector(props: {
 function Button(props: {
  className?: string
  onClick?: () => void
-  color: 'green' | 'purple' | 'red' | 'yellow' | 'gray'
+  color: 'green' | 'red' | 'blue' | 'yellow' | 'gray'
  children?: any
 }) {
  const { className, onClick, children, color } = props
@ -109,9 +122,9 @@ function Button(props: {
      className={clsx(
        'flex-1 inline-flex justify-center items-center px-8 py-3 border border-transparent rounded-md shadow-sm text-sm font-medium text-white',
        color === 'green' && 'btn-primary',
-        color === 'purple' && 'btn-secondary',
        color === 'red' && 'bg-red-400 hover:bg-red-500',
        color === 'yellow' && 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500',
+        color === 'blue' && 'bg-blue-400 hover:bg-blue-500',
        color === 'gray' && 'text-gray-700 bg-gray-300 hover:bg-gray-400',
        className
      )}
--- a/web/hooks/use-comments.ts
+++ b/web/hooks/use-comments.ts
@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { Comment, listenForComments } from '../lib/firebase/comments'
+
+export const useComments = (contractId: string) => {
+  const [comments, setComments] = useState<Comment[] | 'loading'>('loading')
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (contractId) return listenForComments(contractId, setComments)
+  }, [contractId])
+
+  return comments
+}
--- a/web/hooks/use-contracts.ts
+++ b/web/hooks/use-contracts.ts
@ -1,5 +1,11 @@
+import _ from 'lodash'
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
-import { Contract, listenForContracts } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { Bet, listenForRecentBets } from '../lib/firebase/bets'
+import {
+  computeHotContracts,
+  Contract,
+  listenForContracts,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'

 export const useContracts = () => {
  const [contracts, setContracts] = useState<Contract[] | 'loading'>('loading')
@ -10,3 +16,16 @@ export const useContracts = () => {

  return contracts
 }
+
+export const useHotContracts = () => {
+  const [recentBets, setRecentBets] = useState<Bet[] | 'loading'>('loading')
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const oneDay = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24
+    return listenForRecentBets(oneDay, setRecentBets)
+  }, [])
+
+  if (recentBets === 'loading') return 'loading'
+
+  return computeHotContracts(recentBets)
+}
--- a/web/hooks/use-sort-and-query-params.tsx
+++ b/web/hooks/use-sort-and-query-params.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
+
+export type Sort =
+  | 'creator'
+  | 'tag'
+  | 'newest'
+  | 'most-traded'
+  | 'resolved'
+  | 'all'
+
+export function useQueryAndSortParams(options?: { defaultSort: Sort }) {
+  const router = useRouter()
+
+  const { s: sort, q: query } = router.query as {
+    q?: string
+    s?: Sort
+  }
+
+  const setSort = (sort: Sort | undefined) => {
+    router.query.s = sort
+    router.push(router, undefined, { shallow: true })
+  }
+
+  const setQuery = (query: string | undefined) => {
+    if (query) {
+      router.query.q = query
+    } else {
+      delete router.query.q
+    }
+
+    router.push(router, undefined, { shallow: true })
+  }
+
+  return {
+    sort: sort ?? options?.defaultSort ?? 'creator',
+    query: query ?? '',
+    setSort,
+    setQuery,
+  }
+}
--- a/web/lib/calculate.ts
+++ b/web/lib/calculate.ts
@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
+import { Bet } from './firebase/bets'
+import { Contract } from './firebase/contracts'
+
+const fees = 0.02
+
+export function getProbability(pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) {
+  const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
+  const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
+  const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
+  return numerator / denominator
+}
+
+export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
+  pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
+  bet: number
+) {
+  const [YES, NO] = [
+    pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
+    pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
+  ]
+  return getProbability({ YES, NO })
+}
+
+export function calculateShares(
+  pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
+  bet: number,
+  betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
+) {
+  const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
+
+  return betChoice === 'YES'
+    ? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool)
+    : bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool)
+}
+
+export function calculatePayout(
+  contract: Contract,
+  bet: Bet,
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
+) {
+  const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
+
+  if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
+  if (outcome === 'MKT') return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet)
+
+  if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
+
+  const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
+
+  if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
+
+  const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
+
+  if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
+    return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
+
+  const total = totalShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
+  const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]
+
+  return (1 - fees) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
+}
+
+export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const { amount, outcome, shares } = bet
+  const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
+
+  const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+  const truePool = amount + contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
+
+  const totalBetsOutcome = totalBets[outcome] + amount
+  const totalSharesOutcome = totalShares[outcome] + shares
+
+  if (totalBetsOutcome >= truePool)
+    return (amount / totalBetsOutcome) * truePool
+
+  const total = totalSharesOutcome - totalBetsOutcome
+  const winningsPool = truePool - totalBetsOutcome
+
+  return (1 - fees) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
+}
+
+function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const p =
+    contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
+  const weightedTotal =
+    p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO
+
+  const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
+
+  const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
+
+  if (weightedTotal >= truePool) {
+    return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool
+  }
+
+  const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal
+
+  const weightedShareTotal =
+    p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.totalBets.YES) +
+    (1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.totalBets.NO)
+
+  return (
+    (1 - fees) *
+    (betP * bet.amount +
+      ((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool)
+  )
+}
+
+export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  if (contract.resolution)
+    return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
+  throw new Error('Contract was not resolved')
+}
+
+export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const prob = getProbability(contract.pool)
+  const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
+  const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
+
+  return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
+}
+
+export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const { shares, outcome } = bet
+
+  const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
+  const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
+  const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
+
+  const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
+
+  const shareValue =
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
+        (n ** 2 +
+          s * y +
+          y ** 2 -
+          Math.sqrt(
+            n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
+          )) /
+        (2 * y)
+      : (y ** 2 +
+          s * n +
+          n ** 2 -
+          Math.sqrt(
+            y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
+          )) /
+        (2 * n)
+
+  const startPool = yesStart + noStart
+  const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
+
+  const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
+  const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
+
+  const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
+
+  const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
+
+  const saleAmount = (1 - fees) * adjShareValue
+  return saleAmount
+}
--- a/web/lib/calculation/contract.ts
+++ b/web/lib/calculation/contract.ts
@ -1,72 +0,0 @@
-import { Bet } from '../firebase/bets'
-import { Contract } from '../firebase/contracts'
-
-const fees = 0.02
-
-export function getProbability(pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) {
-  const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
-  const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
-  const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
-  return numerator / denominator
-}
-
-export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
-  pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
-  bet: number
-) {
-  const [YES, NO] = [
-    pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
-    pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
-  ]
-  return getProbability({ YES, NO })
-}
-
-export function getDpmWeight(
-  pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
-  bet: number,
-  betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
-) {
-  const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
-
-  return betChoice === 'YES'
-    ? (bet * Math.pow(noPool, 2)) / (Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + bet * yesPool)
-    : (bet * Math.pow(yesPool, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPool, 2) + bet * noPool)
-}
-
-export function calculatePayout(
-  contract: Contract,
-  bet: Bet,
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL'
-) {
-  const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, dpmWeight } = bet
-
-  if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
-  if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
-
-  let { dpmWeights, pool, startPool } = contract
-
-  // Fake data if not set.
-  if (!dpmWeights) dpmWeights = { YES: 100, NO: 100 }
-
-  // Fake data if not set.
-  if (!pool) pool = { YES: 100, NO: 100 }
-
-  const otherOutcome = outcome === 'YES' ? 'NO' : 'YES'
-  const poolSize = pool[otherOutcome] - startPool[otherOutcome]
-
-  return (1 - fees) * (dpmWeight / dpmWeights[outcome]) * poolSize + amount
-}
-export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  if (contract.resolution)
-    return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
-  throw new Error('Contract was not resolved')
-}
-
-export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  const prob = getProbability(contract.pool)
-  const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
-  const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
-
-  return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
-}
--- a/web/lib/firebase/api-call.ts
+++ b/web/lib/firebase/api-call.ts
@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+import { getFunctions, httpsCallable } from 'firebase/functions'
+
+const functions = getFunctions()
+
+export const cloudFunction = (name: string) => httpsCallable(functions, name)
+
+export const createContract = cloudFunction('createContract')
+
+export const placeBet = cloudFunction('placeBet')
+
+export const resolveMarket = cloudFunction('resolveMarket')
+
+export const sellBet = cloudFunction('sellBet')
--- a/web/lib/firebase/bets.ts
+++ b/web/lib/firebase/bets.ts
@ -4,19 +4,31 @@ import {
  query,
  onSnapshot,
  where,
+  getDocs,
 } from 'firebase/firestore'
+import _ from 'lodash'
 import { db } from './init'

 export type Bet = {
  id: string
  userId: string
  contractId: string
-  amount: number // Amount of bet
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' // Chosen outcome
-  dpmWeight: number // Dynamic Parimutuel weight
+
+  amount: number // bet size; negative if SELL bet
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
+  shares: number // dynamic parimutuel pool weight; negative if SELL bet
+
  probBefore: number
-  probAverage: number
  probAfter: number
+
+  sale?: {
+    amount: number // amount user makes from sale
+    betId: string // id of bet being sold
+    // TODO: add sale time?
+  }
+
+  isSold?: boolean // true if this BUY bet has been sold
+
  createdTime: number
 }

@ -52,3 +64,34 @@ export function listenForUserBets(
    setBets(bets)
  })
 }
+
+export function listenForRecentBets(
+  timePeriodMs: number,
+  setBets: (bets: Bet[]) => void
+) {
+  const recentQuery = query(
+    collectionGroup(db, 'bets'),
+    where('createdTime', '>', Date.now() - timePeriodMs)
+  )
+  return onSnapshot(recentQuery, (snap) => {
+    const bets = snap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
+
+    bets.sort((bet1, bet2) => bet1.createdTime - bet2.createdTime)
+
+    setBets(bets)
+  })
+}
+
+export async function getRecentBets(timePeriodMs: number) {
+  const recentQuery = query(
+    collectionGroup(db, 'bets'),
+    where('createdTime', '>', Date.now() - timePeriodMs)
+  )
+
+  const snapshot = await getDocs(recentQuery)
+  const bets = snapshot.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
+
+  bets.sort((bet1, bet2) => bet1.createdTime - bet2.createdTime)
+
+  return bets
+}
--- a/web/lib/firebase/comments.ts
+++ b/web/lib/firebase/comments.ts
@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+import { doc, collection, onSnapshot, setDoc } from 'firebase/firestore'
+import { db } from './init'
+import { User } from './users'
+
+// Currently, comments are created after the bet, not atomically with the bet.
+// They're uniquely identified by the pair contractId/betId.
+export type Comment = {
+  contractId: string
+  betId: string
+  text: string
+  createdTime: number
+  // Denormalized, for rendering comments
+  userName?: string
+  userUsername?: string
+  userAvatarUrl?: string
+}
+
+export async function createComment(
+  contractId: string,
+  betId: string,
+  text: string,
+  commenter: User
+) {
+  const ref = doc(getCommentsCollection(contractId), betId)
+  return await setDoc(ref, {
+    contractId,
+    betId,
+    text,
+    createdTime: Date.now(),
+    userName: commenter.name,
+    userUsername: commenter.username,
+    userAvatarUrl: commenter.avatarUrl,
+  })
+}
+
+function getCommentsCollection(contractId: string) {
+  return collection(db, 'contracts', contractId, 'comments')
+}
+
+export function listenForComments(
+  contractId: string,
+  setComments: (comments: Comment[]) => void
+) {
+  return onSnapshot(getCommentsCollection(contractId), (snap) => {
+    const comments = snap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Comment)
+
+    comments.sort((c1, c2) => c1.createdTime - c2.createdTime)
+
+    setComments(comments)
+  })
+}
+
+// Return a map of betId -> comment
+export function mapCommentsByBetId(comments: Comment[]) {
+  const map: Record<string, Comment> = {}
+  for (const comment of comments) {
+    map[comment.betId] = comment
+  }
+  return map
+}
--- a/web/lib/firebase/contracts.ts
+++ b/web/lib/firebase/contracts.ts
@ -11,9 +11,10 @@ import {
  onSnapshot,
  orderBy,
  getDoc,
-  limit,
 } from 'firebase/firestore'
 import dayjs from 'dayjs'
+import { Bet, getRecentBets } from './bets'
+import _ from 'lodash'

 export type Contract = {
  id: string
@ -30,7 +31,8 @@ export type Contract = {

  startPool: { YES: number; NO: number }
  pool: { YES: number; NO: number }
-  dpmWeights: { YES: number; NO: number }
+  totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
+  totalBets: { YES: number; NO: number }

  createdTime: number // Milliseconds since epoch
  lastUpdatedTime: number // If the question or description was changed
@ -48,14 +50,16 @@ export function path(contract: Contract) {

 export function compute(contract: Contract) {
  const { pool, startPool, createdTime, resolutionTime, isResolved } = contract
-  const volume = pool.YES + pool.NO - startPool.YES - startPool.NO
+  const truePool = pool.YES + pool.NO - startPool.YES - startPool.NO
  const prob = pool.YES ** 2 / (pool.YES ** 2 + pool.NO ** 2)
  const probPercent = Math.round(prob * 100) + '%'
+  const startProb =
+    startPool.YES ** 2 / (startPool.YES ** 2 + startPool.NO ** 2)
  const createdDate = dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D')
  const resolvedDate = isResolved
    ? dayjs(resolutionTime).format('MMM D')
    : undefined
-  return { volume, probPercent, createdDate, resolvedDate }
+  return { truePool, probPercent, startProb, createdDate, resolvedDate }
 }

 const db = getFirestore(app)
@ -105,7 +109,7 @@ export async function listContracts(creatorId: string): Promise<Contract[]> {
 }

 export async function listAllContracts(): Promise<Contract[]> {
-  const q = query(contractCollection, orderBy('createdTime', 'desc'), limit(25))
+  const q = query(contractCollection, orderBy('createdTime', 'desc'))
  const snapshot = await getDocs(q)
  return snapshot.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Contract)
 }
@ -113,7 +117,7 @@ export async function listAllContracts(): Promise<Contract[]> {
 export function listenForContracts(
  setContracts: (contracts: Contract[]) => void
 ) {
-  const q = query(contractCollection, orderBy('createdTime', 'desc'), limit(25))
+  const q = query(contractCollection, orderBy('createdTime', 'desc'))
  return onSnapshot(q, (snap) => {
    setContracts(snap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Contract))
  })
@ -128,3 +132,17 @@ export function listenForContract(
    setContract((contractSnap.data() ?? null) as Contract | null)
  })
 }
+
+export function computeHotContracts(recentBets: Bet[]) {
+  const contractBets = _.groupBy(recentBets, (bet) => bet.contractId)
+  const hotContractIds = _.sortBy(Object.keys(contractBets), (contractId) =>
+    _.sumBy(contractBets[contractId], (bet) => -1 * bet.amount)
+  ).slice(0, 4)
+  return hotContractIds
+}
+
+export async function getHotContracts() {
+  const oneDay = 1000 * 60 * 60 * 24
+  const recentBets = await getRecentBets(oneDay)
+  return computeHotContracts(recentBets)
+}
--- a/web/lib/firebase/init.ts
+++ b/web/lib/firebase/init.ts
@ -1,24 +1,30 @@
 import { getFirestore } from '@firebase/firestore'
 import { initializeApp } from 'firebase/app'
-const firebaseConfig = {
-  apiKey: 'AIzaSyDp3J57vLeAZCzxLD-vcPaGIkAmBoGOSYw',
-  authDomain: 'mantic-markets.firebaseapp.com',
-  projectId: 'mantic-markets',
-  storageBucket: 'mantic-markets.appspot.com',
-  messagingSenderId: '128925704902',
-  appId: '1:128925704902:web:f61f86944d8ffa2a642dc7',
-  measurementId: 'G-SSFK1Q138D',
-}
+
+// TODO: Reenable this when we have a way to set the Firebase db in dev
+// export const isProd = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production'
+export const isProd = true
+
+const firebaseConfig = isProd
+  ? {
+      apiKey: 'AIzaSyDp3J57vLeAZCzxLD-vcPaGIkAmBoGOSYw',
+      authDomain: 'mantic-markets.firebaseapp.com',
+      projectId: 'mantic-markets',
+      storageBucket: 'mantic-markets.appspot.com',
+      messagingSenderId: '128925704902',
+      appId: '1:128925704902:web:f61f86944d8ffa2a642dc7',
+      measurementId: 'G-SSFK1Q138D',
+    }
+  : {
+      apiKey: 'AIzaSyBoq3rzUa8Ekyo3ZaTnlycQYPRCA26VpOw',
+      authDomain: 'dev-mantic-markets.firebaseapp.com',
+      projectId: 'dev-mantic-markets',
+      storageBucket: 'dev-mantic-markets.appspot.com',
+      messagingSenderId: '134303100058',
+      appId: '1:134303100058:web:27f9ea8b83347251f80323',
+      measurementId: 'G-YJC9E37P37',
+    }

 // Initialize Firebase
 export const app = initializeApp(firebaseConfig)
 export const db = getFirestore(app)
-
-// try {
-//   // Note: this is still throwing a console error atm...
-//   import('firebase/analytics').then((analytics) => {
-//     analytics.getAnalytics(app)
-//   })
-// } catch (e) {
-//   console.warn('Analytics were blocked')
-// }
--- a/web/lib/firebase/users.ts
+++ b/web/lib/firebase/users.ts
@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ import {
  signInWithPopup,
 } from 'firebase/auth'

-export const STARTING_BALANCE = 100
+export const STARTING_BALANCE = 1000

 export type User = {
  id: string
--- a/web/lib/service/create-contract.ts
+++ b/web/lib/service/create-contract.ts
@ -1,63 +0,0 @@
-import {
-  Contract,
-  getContractFromSlug,
-  pushNewContract,
-  setContract,
-} from '../firebase/contracts'
-import { User } from '../firebase/users'
-import { randomString } from '../util/random-string'
-import { slugify } from '../util/slugify'
-
-// consider moving to cloud function for security
-export async function createContract(
-  question: string,
-  description: string,
-  initialProb: number,
-  creator: User
-) {
-  const proposedSlug = slugify(question).substring(0, 35)
-
-  const preexistingContract = await getContractFromSlug(proposedSlug)
-
-  const slug = preexistingContract
-    ? proposedSlug + '-' + randomString()
-    : proposedSlug
-
-  const { startYes, startNo } = calcStartPool(initialProb)
-
-  const contract: Omit<Contract, 'id'> = {
-    slug,
-    outcomeType: 'BINARY',
-
-    creatorId: creator.id,
-    creatorName: creator.name,
-    creatorUsername: creator.username,
-
-    question: question.trim(),
-    description: description.trim(),
-
-    startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
-    pool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
-    dpmWeights: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
-    isResolved: false,
-
-    // TODO: Set create time to Firestore timestamp
-    createdTime: Date.now(),
-    lastUpdatedTime: Date.now(),
-  }
-
-  return await pushNewContract(contract)
-}
-
-export function calcStartPool(initialProb: number, initialCapital = 200) {
-  const p = initialProb / 100.0
-
-  const startYes =
-    p === 0.5
-      ? p * initialCapital
-      : -(initialCapital * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p)
-
-  const startNo = initialCapital - startYes
-
-  return { startYes, startNo }
-}
--- a/web/lib/simulator/entries.ts
+++ b/web/lib/simulator/entries.ts
@ -21,10 +21,13 @@ function makeWeights(bids: Bid[]) {
  // First pass: calculate all the weights
  for (const { yesBid, noBid } of bids) {
    const yesWeight =
-      (yesBid * Math.pow(noPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + yesBid * yesPot) ||
-      0
+      yesBid +
+        (yesBid * Math.pow(noPot, 2)) /
+          (Math.pow(yesPot, 2) + yesBid * yesPot) || 0
    const noWeight =
-      (noBid * Math.pow(yesPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + noBid * noPot) || 0
+      noBid +
+        (noBid * Math.pow(yesPot, 2)) / (Math.pow(noPot, 2) + noBid * noPot) ||
+      0

    // Note: Need to calculate weights BEFORE updating pot
    yesPot += yesBid
@ -53,15 +56,15 @@ export function makeEntries(bids: Bid[]): Entry[] {
  const yesWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.yesWeight, 0)
  const noWeightsSum = weights.reduce((sum, entry) => sum + entry.noWeight, 0)

+  const potSize = yesPot + noPot - YES_SEED - NO_SEED
+
  // Second pass: calculate all the payouts
  const entries: Entry[] = []

  for (const weight of weights) {
    const { yesBid, noBid, yesWeight, noWeight } = weight
-    // Payout: You get your initial bid back, as well as your share of the
-    // (noPot - seed) according to your yesWeight
-    const yesPayout = yesBid + (yesWeight / yesWeightsSum) * (noPot - NO_SEED)
-    const noPayout = noBid + (noWeight / noWeightsSum) * (yesPot - YES_SEED)
+    const yesPayout = (yesWeight / yesWeightsSum) * potSize
+    const noPayout = (noWeight / noWeightsSum) * potSize
    const yesReturn = (yesPayout - yesBid) / yesBid
    const noReturn = (noPayout - noBid) / noBid
    entries.push({ ...weight, yesPayout, noPayout, yesReturn, noReturn })
--- a/web/lib/util/format.ts
+++ b/web/lib/util/format.ts
@ -6,11 +6,11 @@ const formatter = new Intl.NumberFormat('en-US', {
 })

 export function formatMoney(amount: number) {
-  return 'M$ ' + formatter.format(amount).substring(1)
+  return 'M$ ' + formatter.format(amount).replace('$', '')
 }

 export function formatWithCommas(amount: number) {
-  return formatter.format(amount).substring(1)
+  return formatter.format(amount).replace('$', '')
 }

 export function formatPercent(zeroToOne: number) {
--- a/web/lib/util/parse.ts
+++ b/web/lib/util/parse.ts
@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+import _ from 'lodash'
+
+export function parseTags(text: string) {
+  const regex = /(?:^|\s)(?:[#][a-z0-9_]+)/gi
+  const matches = (text.match(regex) || []).map((match) =>
+    match.trim().substring(1)
+  )
+  return _.uniqBy(matches, (tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
+}
--- a/web/package.json
+++ b/web/package.json
@ -22,7 +22,8 @@
    "lodash": "4.17.21",
    "next": "12.0.7",
    "react": "17.0.2",
-    "react-dom": "17.0.2"
+    "react-dom": "17.0.2",
+    "react-expanding-textarea": "^2.3.4"
  },
  "devDependencies": {
    "@tailwindcss/forms": "0.4.0",
--- a/web/pages/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx
+++ b/web/pages/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx
@ -11,7 +11,11 @@ import { useBets } from '../../hooks/use-bets'
 import { Title } from '../../components/title'
 import { Spacer } from '../../components/layout/spacer'
 import { User } from '../../lib/firebase/users'
-import { Contract, getContractFromSlug } from '../../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import {
+  compute,
+  Contract,
+  getContractFromSlug,
+} from '../../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { SEO } from '../../components/SEO'
 import { Page } from '../../components/page'

@ -47,14 +51,23 @@ export default function ContractPage(props: {
    return <div>Contract not found...</div>
  }

-  const { creatorId, isResolved } = contract
+  const { creatorId, isResolved, resolution, question } = contract
  const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
+  const allowTrade =
+    !isResolved && (!contract.closeTime || contract.closeTime > Date.now())
+  const allowResolve = !isResolved && isCreator && user
+
+  const { probPercent } = compute(contract)
+
+  const description = resolution
+    ? `Resolved ${resolution}. ${contract.description}`
+    : `${probPercent} chance. ${contract.description}`

  return (
-    <Page wide={!isResolved}>
+    <Page wide={allowTrade}>
      <SEO
-        title={contract.question}
-        description={contract.description}
+        title={question}
+        description={description}
        url={`/${props.username}/${props.slug}`}
      />

@ -64,14 +77,13 @@ export default function ContractPage(props: {
          <BetsSection contract={contract} user={user ?? null} />
        </div>

-        {!isResolved && (
+        {(allowTrade || allowResolve) && (
          <>
            <div className="md:ml-8" />

            <Col className="flex-1">
-              <BetPanel contract={contract} />
-
-              {isCreator && user && (
+              {allowTrade && <BetPanel contract={contract} />}
+              {allowResolve && (
                <ResolutionPanel creator={user} contract={contract} />
              )}
            </Col>
@ -97,8 +109,8 @@ function BetsSection(props: { contract: Contract; user: User | null }) {

  return (
    <div>
-      <Title text="Your bets" />
-      <MyBetsSummary contract={contract} bets={userBets} />
+      <Title text="Your trades" />
+      <MyBetsSummary contract={contract} bets={userBets} showMKT />
      <Spacer h={6} />
      <ContractBetsTable contract={contract} bets={userBets} />
      <Spacer h={12} />
--- a/web/pages/_app.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/_app.tsx
@ -6,32 +6,35 @@ function MyApp({ Component, pageProps }: AppProps) {
  return (
    <>
      <Head>
-        <title>Mantic Markets</title>
+        <title>Manifold Markets</title>

        <meta
          property="og:title"
          name="twitter:title"
-          content="Mantic Markets"
+          content="Manifold Markets"
          key="title"
        />
        <meta
          name="description"
-          content="Mantic Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created prediction markets."
+          content="Manifold Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created prediction markets."
          key="description1"
        />
        <meta
          property="og:description"
          name="twitter:description"
-          content="Mantic Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created prediction markets."
+          content="Manifold Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created prediction markets."
          key="description2"
        />
-        <meta property="og:url" content="https://mantic.markets" key="url" />
-        <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image" />
-        <meta name="twitter:site" content="@manticmarkets" />
+        <meta property="og:url" content="https://manifold.markets" key="url" />
+        <meta name="twitter:card" content="summary" />
+        <meta name="twitter:site" content="@manifoldmarkets" />
        <meta
          property="og:image"
+          content="https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png"
+        />
+        <meta
          name="twitter:image"
-          content="https://mantic.markets/logo-cover.png"
+          content="https://manifold.markets/logo-bg.png"
        />
      </Head>

--- a/web/pages/about.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/about.tsx
@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ function Contents() {
      <h1 id="about">About</h1>
      <hr />
      <p>
-        Mantic Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created
+        Manifold Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created
        prediction markets.
      </p>
      <p>
@ -77,49 +77,51 @@ function Contents() {
        </a>
        . This is the power of prediction markets!
      </p>
-      <h3 id="how-does-mantic-markets-work-">How does Mantic Markets work?</h3>
+      <h3 id="how-does-manifold-markets-work-">
+        How does Manifold Markets work?
+      </h3>
      <ol>
        <li>
          <strong>
            Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question.
          </strong>
        </li>
-      </ol>
-      <p>
-        You can ask questions about the future like &quot;Will Taiwan remove its
-        14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?&quot; Then use the information
-        to plan your trip.
-      </p>
-      <p>
-        You can also ask subjective, personal questions like &quot;Will I enjoy
-        my 2022 Taiwan trip?&quot;. Then share the market with your family and
-        friends.
-      </p>
-      <ol>
+        <p>
+          You can ask questions about the future like &quot;Will Taiwan remove
+          its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?&quot; Then use the
+          information to plan your trip.
+        </p>
+        <p>
+          You can also ask subjective, personal questions like &quot;Will I
+          enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?&quot;. Then share the market with your
+          family and friends.
+        </p>
        <li>
          <strong>
-            Anyone can bet on a market using Mantic Dollars (M$), our platform
+            Anyone can bet on a market using Manifold Dollars (M$), our platform
            currency.
          </strong>
        </li>
      </ol>
      <p>
-        You get M$ 100 just for signing up, so you can start betting
+        You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting
        immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor,
-        you&#39;ll win money from people who bet against you.
+        you&#39;ll win Manifold Dollars from people who bet against you.
      </p>
-      <p>
+      {/* <p>
        If you run out of money, you can purchase more at a rate of $1 USD to M$
-        100. (Note that Mantic Dollars are not convertible to cash and can only
+        100. (Note that Manifold Dollars are not convertible to cash and can only
        be used within our platform.)
-      </p>
+      </p> */}
      <aside>
-        💡 We&#39;re still in Open Beta; we&#39;ll tweak this model and
-        periodically reset balances before our official launch. If you purchase
-        any M$ during the beta, we promise to honor that when we launch!
+        💡 We&#39;re still in Open Beta; we&#39;ll tweak the amounts of Manifold
+        Dollars given out and periodically reset balances before our official
+        launch.
+        {/* If you purchase
+        any M$ during the beta, we promise to honor that when we launch! */}
      </aside>

-      <h3 id="why-do-i-want-to-bet-with-play-money-">
+      {/* <h3 id="why-do-i-want-to-bet-with-play-money-">
        Why do I want to bet with play-money?
      </h3>
      <p>
@ -130,7 +132,7 @@ function Contents() {
      </p>
      <p>By buying M$, you support:</p>
      <ul>
-        <li>The continued development of Mantic Markets</li>
+        <li>The continued development of Manifold Markets</li>
        <li>Cash payouts to market creators (TBD)</li>
        <li>Forecasting tournaments for bettors (TBD)</li>
      </ul>
@ -138,7 +140,7 @@ function Contents() {
        We also have some thoughts on how to reward bettors: physical swag,
        exclusive conversations with market creators, NFTs...? If you have
        ideas, let us know!
-      </p>
+      </p> */}
      <h3 id="can-prediction-markets-work-without-real-money-">
        Can prediction markets work without real money?
      </h3>
@ -162,8 +164,8 @@ function Contents() {
      </p>
      <h3 id="how-are-markets-resolved-">How are markets resolved?</h3>
      <p>
-        The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 0.5%
-        of the trade volume for their effort.
+        The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 1% of
+        the betting pool for their effort.
      </p>
      <p>
        This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a
@ -200,34 +202,52 @@ function Contents() {
      <h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
        How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind?
      </h3>
-      <p>
+      {/* <p>
        We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin
        in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency
        they use on our platform.
      </p>
      <p>
-        With Mantic Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more
+        With Manifold Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more
        carefully and can&#39;t rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts.
        The result is more accurate predictions.
-      </p>
+      </p> */}
      <p>
-        Mantic Markets is also focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to
+        Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to
        quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power
        to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own
        judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number,
        variety, and usefulness of prediction markets.
      </p>
-      <h3 id="how-does-betting-in-a-market-work-on-a-technical-level-">
-        How does betting in a market work on a technical level?
-      </h3>
+
+      <h3 id="how-does-betting-work">How does betting work?</h3>
+      <ul>
+        <li>
+          Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome (either
+          YES or NO)
+        </li>
+        <li>
+          Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO. The bet amount is added
+          to the corresponding bet pool for the outcome. The trader receives
+          some shares of the final pool. The number of shares depends on the
+          current implied probability.
+        </li>
+        <li>
+          When the market is resolved, the traders who bet on the correct
+          outcome are paid out of the total pool (YES pool + NO pool) in
+          proportion to the amount of shares they own, minus any fees.
+        </li>
+      </ul>
+
+      <h3 id="type-of-market-maker">What kind of betting system do you use?</h3>
      <p>
-        Mantic Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on a
-        dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system.
+        Manifold Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on
+        a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system.
      </p>
      <p>
        Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the
-        time you place your bet (it&#39;s dependent on the size of the pot when
-        the event ends).
+        time you place your bet (it&#39;s dependent on the size of the pool when
+        the event is resolved).
      </p>
      <p>
        Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that
@ -238,8 +258,9 @@ function Contents() {
        The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low
        without any risk to the market creator.
      </p>
+
      <h3 id="who-are-we-">Who are we?</h3>
-      <p>Mantic Markets is currently a team of three:</p>
+      <p>Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:</p>
      <ul>
        <li>James Grugett</li>
        <li>Stephen Grugett</li>
@ -259,7 +280,7 @@ function Contents() {
      </p>
      <ul>
        <li>
-          Email: <code>info@mantic.markets</code>
+          Email: <code>info@manifold.markets</code>
        </li>
        <li>
          Office hours:{' '}
@ -269,12 +290,19 @@ function Contents() {
      </ul>
      <p>
        <a href="https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh">
-          Join the Mantic Markets Discord Server!
+          Join the Manifold Markets Discord Server!
        </a>
      </p>
+
      <h1 id="further-reading">Further Reading</h1>
      <hr />
+
      <ul>
+        <li>
+          <a href="https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Overview-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5">
+            Technical Overview of Manifold Markets
+          </a>
+        </li>
        <li>
          <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market">
            Wikipedia: Prediction markets
@ -296,7 +324,7 @@ function Contents() {
          </a>
        </li>
        <li>
-          <a href="https://mantic.markets/simulator">
+          <a href="https://manifold.markets/simulator">
            Dynamic parimutuel market simulator
          </a>
        </li>
--- a/web/pages/create.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/create.tsx
@ -1,13 +1,19 @@
 import router from 'next/router'
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+import dayjs from 'dayjs'
+import Textarea from 'react-expanding-textarea'

-import { ContractsList } from '../components/contracts-list'
+import { CreatorContractsList } from '../components/contracts-list'
 import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
 import { Title } from '../components/title'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
-import { path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
-import { createContract } from '../lib/service/create-contract'
+import { Contract, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
+import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
+import { AdvancedPanel } from '../components/advanced-panel'
+import { createContract } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
+import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'

 // Allow user to create a new contract
 export default function NewContract() {
@ -15,26 +21,69 @@ export default function NewContract() {

  useEffect(() => {
    if (creator === null) router.push('/')
-  })
+  }, [creator])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    // warm up function
+    createContract({}).catch()
+  }, [])

  const [initialProb, setInitialProb] = useState(50)
  const [question, setQuestion] = useState('')
  const [description, setDescription] = useState('')
+
+  const [ante, setAnte] = useState<number | undefined>(0)
+  const [anteError, setAnteError] = useState('')
+  const [closeDate, setCloseDate] = useState('')
+
  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)

+  const closeTime = dateToMillis(closeDate) || undefined
+  // We'd like this to look like "Apr 2, 2022, 23:59:59 PM PT" but timezones are hard with dayjs
+  const formattedCloseTime = closeTime ? new Date(closeTime).toString() : ''
+
+  const user = useUser()
+  const remainingBalance = (user?.balance || 0) - (ante || 0)
+
+  const isValid =
+    initialProb > 0 &&
+    initialProb < 100 &&
+    question.length > 0 &&
+    (ante === undefined || (ante >= 0 && ante <= remainingBalance)) &&
+    // If set, closeTime must be in the future
+    (!closeTime || closeTime > Date.now())
+
  async function submit() {
-    // TODO: add more rigorous error handling for question
-    if (!creator || !question) return
+    // TODO: Tell users why their contract is invalid
+    if (!creator || !isValid) return

    setIsSubmitting(true)

-    const contract = await createContract(
+    const result: any = await createContract({
      question,
      description,
      initialProb,
-      creator
-    )
-    await router.push(path(contract))
+      ante,
+      closeTime: closeTime || undefined,
+    }).then((r) => r.data || {})
+
+    if (result.status !== 'success') {
+      console.log('error creating contract', result)
+      return
+    }
+
+    await router.push(path(result.contract as Contract))
+  }
+
+  function onAnteChange(str: string) {
+    const amount = parseInt(str)
+
+    if (str && isNaN(amount)) return
+
+    setAnte(str ? amount : undefined)
+
+    if (user && user.balance < amount) setAnteError('Insufficient balance')
+    else setAnteError('')
  }

  const descriptionPlaceholder = `e.g. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 2, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET, Paxlovid (also known under PF-07321332)...`
@ -45,19 +94,19 @@ export default function NewContract() {
    <Page>
      <Title text="Create a new prediction market" />

-      <div className="w-full bg-gray-100 rounded-lg shadow-xl px-6 py-4">
+      <div className="w-full bg-gray-100 rounded-lg shadow-md px-6 py-4">
        {/* Create a Tailwind form that takes in all the fields needed for a new contract */}
        {/* When the form is submitted, create a new contract in the database */}
        <form>
-          <div className="form-control">
+          <div className="form-control w-full">
            <label className="label">
-              <span className="label-text">Question</span>
+              <span className="mb-1">Question</span>
            </label>

-            <input
-              type="text"
-              placeholder="e.g. Will the FDA approve Paxlovid before Jun 2nd, 2022?"
-              className="input"
+            <Textarea
+              placeholder="e.g. Will the FDA will approve Paxlovid before Jun 2nd, 2022?"
+              className="input input-bordered resize-none"
+              disabled={isSubmitting}
              value={question}
              onChange={(e) => setQuestion(e.target.value || '')}
            />
@ -67,49 +116,120 @@ export default function NewContract() {

          <div className="form-control">
            <label className="label">
-              <span className="label-text">Description (optional)</span>
+              <span className="mb-1">Initial probability</span>
            </label>
-
-            <textarea
-              className="textarea h-24 textarea-bordered"
-              placeholder={descriptionPlaceholder}
-              value={description}
-              onChange={(e) => setDescription(e.target.value || '')}
-            ></textarea>
+            <Row className="items-center gap-2">
+              <label className="input-group input-group-lg w-fit text-xl">
+                <input
+                  type="number"
+                  value={initialProb}
+                  className="input input-bordered input-md text-primary text-3xl w-24"
+                  disabled={isSubmitting}
+                  min={1}
+                  max={99}
+                  onChange={(e) =>
+                    setInitialProb(parseInt(e.target.value.substring(0, 2)))
+                  }
+                />
+                <span>%</span>
+              </label>
+              <input
+                type="range"
+                className="range range-primary"
+                min={1}
+                max={99}
+                value={initialProb}
+                onChange={(e) => setInitialProb(parseInt(e.target.value))}
+              />
+            </Row>
          </div>

          <Spacer h={4} />

          <div className="form-control">
            <label className="label">
-              <span className="label-text">
-                Initial probability: {initialProb}%
-              </span>
+              <span className="mb-1">Description</span>
            </label>
-
-            <input
-              type="range"
-              className="range range-lg range-primary"
-              min="1"
-              max={99}
-              value={initialProb}
-              onChange={(e) => setInitialProb(parseInt(e.target.value))}
+            <Textarea
+              className="textarea w-full textarea-bordered"
+              rows={3}
+              placeholder={descriptionPlaceholder}
+              value={description}
+              disabled={isSubmitting}
+              onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+              onChange={(e) => setDescription(e.target.value || '')}
            />
          </div>

+          <AdvancedPanel>
+            <div className="form-control mb-1">
+              <label className="label">
+                <span className="mb-1">Subsidize your market</span>
+              </label>
+
+              <label className="input-group">
+                <span className="text-sm ">M$</span>
+                <input
+                  className={clsx(
+                    'input input-bordered',
+                    anteError && 'input-error'
+                  )}
+                  type="text"
+                  placeholder="0"
+                  maxLength={9}
+                  value={ante ?? ''}
+                  disabled={isSubmitting}
+                  onChange={(e) => onAnteChange(e.target.value)}
+                />
+              </label>
+              <label>
+                <span className="label-text text-gray-400 ml-1">
+                  Remaining balance:{' '}
+                  {formatMoney(remainingBalance > 0 ? remainingBalance : 0)}
+                </span>
+              </label>
+            </div>
+
+            <Spacer h={4} />
+
+            <div className="form-control">
+              <label className="label">
+                <span className="mb-1">Close date</span>
+              </label>
+              <input
+                type="date"
+                className="input input-bordered"
+                onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                onChange={(e) => setCloseDate(e.target.value || '')}
+                min={new Date().toISOString().split('T')[0]}
+                disabled={isSubmitting}
+                value={closeDate}
+              />
+            </div>
+            <label>
+              <span className="label-text text-gray-400 ml-1">
+                No new trades will be allowed after{' '}
+                {closeDate ? formattedCloseTime : 'this time'}
+              </span>
+            </label>
+          </AdvancedPanel>
+
          <Spacer h={4} />

          <div className="flex justify-end my-4">
            <button
              type="submit"
-              className="btn btn-primary"
-              disabled={isSubmitting || !question}
+              className={clsx(
+                'btn btn-primary',
+                isSubmitting && 'loading disabled'
+              )}
+              disabled={isSubmitting || !isValid}
              onClick={(e) => {
                e.preventDefault()
                submit()
              }}
            >
-              Create market
+              {isSubmitting ? 'Creating...' : 'Create market'}
            </button>
          </div>
        </form>
@ -119,7 +239,17 @@ export default function NewContract() {

      <Title text="Your markets" />

-      {creator && <ContractsList creator={creator} />}
+      {creator && <CreatorContractsList creator={creator} />}
    </Page>
  )
 }
+
+// Given a date string like '2022-04-02',
+// return the time just before midnight on that date (in the user's local time), as millis since epoch
+function dateToMillis(date: string) {
+  return dayjs(date)
+    .set('hour', 23)
+    .set('minute', 59)
+    .set('second', 59)
+    .valueOf()
+}
--- a/web/pages/index.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/index.tsx
@ -3,26 +3,42 @@ import React from 'react'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
 import Markets from './markets'
 import LandingPage from './landing-page'
-import { Contract, listAllContracts } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  getHotContracts,
+  listAllContracts,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import _ from 'lodash'

 export async function getStaticProps() {
-  const contracts = await listAllContracts().catch((_) => [])
+  const [contracts, hotContractIds] = await Promise.all([
+    listAllContracts().catch((_) => []),
+    getHotContracts().catch(() => []),
+  ])

  return {
    props: {
      contracts,
+      hotContractIds,
    },

    revalidate: 60, // regenerate after a minute
  }
 }

-const Home = (props: { contracts: Contract[] }) => {
+const Home = (props: { contracts: Contract[]; hotContractIds: string[] }) => {
  const user = useUser()

  if (user === undefined) return <></>

-  return user ? <Markets contracts={props.contracts} /> : <LandingPage />
+  return user ? (
+    <Markets
+      contracts={props.contracts}
+      hotContractIds={props.hotContractIds}
+    />
+  ) : (
+    <LandingPage />
+  )
 }

 export default Home
--- a/web/pages/landing-page.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/landing-page.tsx
@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ import { SearchableGrid } from '../components/contracts-list'
 import { Col } from '../components/layout/col'
 import { NavBar } from '../components/nav-bar'
 import Link from 'next/link'
+import { useQueryAndSortParams } from '../hooks/use-sort-and-query-params'

 export default function LandingPage() {
  return (
@ -93,7 +94,7 @@ function FeaturesSection() {
    {
      name: 'Play money, real results',
      description:
-        'Get accurate predictions by betting with Mantic Dollars, our virtual currency.',
+        'Get accurate predictions by betting with Manifold Dollars, our virtual currency.',
      icon: LightningBoltIcon,
    },
    {
@ -116,7 +117,7 @@ function FeaturesSection() {
        <div className="max-w-7xl mx-auto px-6 lg:px-8">
          <div className="lg:text-center">
            <h2 className="text-base text-teal-600 font-semibold tracking-wide uppercase">
-              Mantic Markets
+              Manifold Markets
            </h2>
            <p className="mt-2 text-3xl leading-8 font-extrabold tracking-tight text-gray-900 sm:text-4xl">
              Better forecasting for everyone
@ -159,13 +160,20 @@ function FeaturesSection() {

 function ExploreMarketsSection() {
  const contracts = useContracts()
+  const { query, setQuery, sort, setSort } = useQueryAndSortParams()

  return (
    <div className="max-w-4xl px-4 py-8 mx-auto">
      <p className="my-12 text-3xl leading-8 font-extrabold tracking-tight text-indigo-700 sm:text-4xl">
        Explore our markets
      </p>
-      <SearchableGrid contracts={contracts === 'loading' ? [] : contracts} />
+      <SearchableGrid
+        contracts={contracts === 'loading' ? [] : contracts}
+        query={query}
+        setQuery={setQuery}
+        sort={sort}
+        setSort={setSort}
+      />
    </div>
  )
 }
--- a/web/pages/make-predictions.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/make-predictions.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,224 @@
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+import Link from 'next/link'
+import { useState } from 'react'
+
+import { Col } from '../components/layout/col'
+import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
+import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
+import { Linkify } from '../components/linkify'
+import { Page } from '../components/page'
+import { Title } from '../components/title'
+import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
+import { createContract } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
+import { compute, Contract, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+
+type Prediction = {
+  question: string
+  description: string
+  initialProb: number
+  createdUrl?: string
+}
+
+function toPrediction(contract: Contract): Prediction {
+  const { startProb } = compute(contract)
+  return {
+    question: contract.question,
+    description: contract.description,
+    initialProb: startProb * 100,
+    createdUrl: path(contract),
+  }
+}
+
+function PredictionRow(props: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const { prediction } = props
+  return (
+    <Row className="gap-4 justify-between hover:bg-gray-300 p-4">
+      <Col className="justify-between">
+        <div className="font-medium text-indigo-700 mb-2">
+          <Linkify text={prediction.question} />
+        </div>
+        <div className="text-gray-500 text-sm">{prediction.description}</div>
+      </Col>
+      {/* Initial probability */}
+      <div className="ml-auto">
+        <div className="text-3xl">
+          <div className="text-primary">
+            {prediction.initialProb.toFixed(0)}%
+            <div className="text-lg">chance</div>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      {/* Current probability; hidden for now */}
+      {/* <div>
+        <div className="text-3xl">
+          <div className="text-primary">
+            {prediction.initialProb}%<div className="text-lg">chance</div>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div> */}
+    </Row>
+  )
+}
+
+function PredictionList(props: { predictions: Prediction[] }) {
+  const { predictions } = props
+  return (
+    <Col className="divide-gray-300 divide-y border-gray-300 border rounded-md">
+      {predictions.map((prediction) =>
+        prediction.createdUrl ? (
+          <Link href={prediction.createdUrl}>
+            <a>
+              <PredictionRow
+                key={prediction.question}
+                prediction={prediction}
+              />
+            </a>
+          </Link>
+        ) : (
+          <PredictionRow key={prediction.question} prediction={prediction} />
+        )
+      )}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}
+
+const TEST_VALUE = `1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: 80%
+2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year): 5%
+3. Yang is New York mayor: 80%
+4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: 5%
+5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%
+6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): 20%`
+
+export default function MakePredictions() {
+  const user = useUser()
+  const [predictionsString, setPredictionsString] = useState('')
+  const [description, setDescription] = useState('')
+  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
+  const [createdContracts, setCreatedContracts] = useState<Contract[]>([])
+
+  const bulkPlaceholder = `e.g.
+${TEST_VALUE}
+...
+`
+
+  const predictions: Prediction[] = []
+
+  // Parse bulkContracts, then run createContract for each
+  const lines = predictionsString ? predictionsString.split('\n') : []
+  for (const line of lines) {
+    // Parse line with regex
+    const matches = line.match(/^(.*):\s*(\d+)%\s*$/) || ['', '', '']
+    const [_, question, prob] = matches
+
+    if (!question || !prob) {
+      console.error('Invalid prediction: ', line)
+      continue
+    }
+
+    predictions.push({
+      question,
+      description,
+      initialProb: parseInt(prob),
+    })
+  }
+
+  async function createContracts() {
+    if (!user) {
+      // TODO: Convey error with snackbar/toast
+      console.error('You need to be signed in!')
+      return
+    }
+    setIsSubmitting(true)
+    for (const prediction of predictions) {
+      const contract = await createContract({
+        question: prediction.question,
+        description: prediction.description,
+        initialProb: prediction.initialProb,
+      }).then((r) => (r.data as any).contract)
+
+      setCreatedContracts((prev) => [...prev, contract])
+    }
+    setPredictionsString('')
+    setIsSubmitting(false)
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <Page>
+      <Title text="Make Predictions" />
+      <div className="w-full bg-gray-100 rounded-lg shadow-xl px-6 py-4">
+        <form>
+          <div className="form-control">
+            <label className="label">
+              <span className="label-text">Prediction</span>
+              <div className="text-sm text-gray-500 ml-1">
+                One prediction per line, each formatted like "The sun will rise
+                tomorrow: 99%"
+              </div>
+            </label>
+
+            <textarea
+              className="textarea h-60 textarea-bordered"
+              placeholder={bulkPlaceholder}
+              value={predictionsString}
+              onChange={(e) => setPredictionsString(e.target.value || '')}
+            ></textarea>
+          </div>
+        </form>
+
+        <Spacer h={4} />
+
+        <div className="form-control w-full">
+          <label className="label">
+            <span className="label-text">Tags</span>
+          </label>
+
+          <input
+            type="text"
+            placeholder="e.g. #ACX2021 #World"
+            className="input"
+            value={description}
+            onChange={(e) => setDescription(e.target.value || '')}
+          />
+        </div>
+
+        {predictions.length > 0 && (
+          <div>
+            <Spacer h={4} />
+            <label className="label">
+              <span className="label-text">Preview</span>
+            </label>
+            <PredictionList predictions={predictions} />
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        <Spacer h={4} />
+
+        <div className="flex justify-end my-4">
+          <button
+            type="submit"
+            className={clsx('btn btn-primary', {
+              loading: isSubmitting,
+            })}
+            disabled={predictions.length === 0 || isSubmitting}
+            onClick={(e) => {
+              e.preventDefault()
+              createContracts()
+            }}
+          >
+            Create all
+          </button>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {createdContracts.length > 0 && (
+        <>
+          <Spacer h={16} />
+          <Title text="Created Predictions" />
+          <div className="w-full bg-gray-100 rounded-lg shadow-xl px-6 py-4">
+            <PredictionList predictions={createdContracts.map(toPrediction)} />
+          </div>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </Page>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/pages/markets.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/markets.tsx
@ -1,28 +1,65 @@
-import { SearchableGrid } from '../components/contracts-list'
+import _ from 'lodash'
+import { ContractsGrid, SearchableGrid } from '../components/contracts-list'
+import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
-import { useContracts } from '../hooks/use-contracts'
-import { Contract, listAllContracts } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { Title } from '../components/title'
+import { useContracts, useHotContracts } from '../hooks/use-contracts'
+import { useQueryAndSortParams } from '../hooks/use-sort-and-query-params'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  getHotContracts,
+  listAllContracts,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'

 export async function getStaticProps() {
-  const contracts = await listAllContracts().catch((_) => [])
+  const [contracts, hotContractIds] = await Promise.all([
+    listAllContracts().catch((_) => []),
+    getHotContracts().catch(() => []),
+  ])

  return {
    props: {
      contracts,
+      hotContractIds,
    },

    revalidate: 60, // regenerate after a minute
  }
 }

-export default function Markets(props: { contracts: Contract[] }) {
+export default function Markets(props: {
+  contracts: Contract[]
+  hotContractIds: string[]
+}) {
  const contracts = useContracts()
+  const { query, setQuery, sort, setSort } = useQueryAndSortParams()
+  const hotContractIds = useHotContracts()
+
+  const readyHotContractIds =
+    hotContractIds === 'loading' ? props.hotContractIds : hotContractIds
+  const readyContracts = contracts === 'loading' ? props.contracts : contracts
+
+  const hotContracts = readyHotContractIds.map(
+    (hotId) =>
+      _.find(readyContracts, (contract) => contract.id === hotId) as Contract
+  )

  return (
    <Page>
+      <div className="w-full bg-indigo-50 border-2 border-indigo-100 p-6 rounded-lg shadow-md">
+        <Title className="mt-0" text="🔥 Markets" />
+        <ContractsGrid contracts={hotContracts} />
+      </div>
+
+      <Spacer h={10} />
+
      {(props.contracts || contracts !== 'loading') && (
        <SearchableGrid
-          contracts={contracts === 'loading' ? props.contracts : contracts}
+          contracts={readyContracts}
+          query={query}
+          setQuery={setQuery}
+          sort={sort}
+          setSort={setSort}
        />
      )}
    </Page>
--- a/web/pages/simulator.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/simulator.tsx
@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null; isNew?: boolean }) {
    return (
      <>
        <td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
-        <td>${(entry.yesBid + entry.yesWeight).toFixed(0)}</td>
+        <td>${entry.yesWeight.toFixed(0)}</td>
        {!props.isNew && (
          <>
            <td>${entry.yesPayout.toFixed(0)}</td>
@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ function TableRowEnd(props: { entry: Entry | null; isNew?: boolean }) {
    return (
      <>
        <td>{(entry.prob * 100).toFixed(1)}%</td>
-        <td>${(entry.noBid + entry.noWeight).toFixed(0)}</td>
+        <td>${entry.noWeight.toFixed(0)}</td>
        {!props.isNew && (
          <>
            <td>${entry.noPayout.toFixed(0)}</td>
@ -149,9 +149,9 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {

  function randomBid() {
    const bidType = Math.random() < 0.5 ? 'YES' : 'NO'
-    const p = bidType === 'YES' ? nextEntry.prob : 1 - nextEntry.prob
+    // const p = bidType === 'YES' ? nextEntry.prob : 1 - nextEntry.prob

-    const amount = Math.round(p * Math.random() * 300) + 1
+    const amount = Math.floor(Math.random() * 300) + 1
    const bid = makeBid(bidType, amount)

    bids.splice(steps, 0, bid)
@ -238,7 +238,7 @@ function NewBidTable(props: {
 // Show a hello world React page
 export default function Simulator() {
  const [steps, setSteps] = useState(1)
-  const [bids, setBids] = useState([{ yesBid: 550, noBid: 450 }])
+  const [bids, setBids] = useState([{ yesBid: 100, noBid: 100 }])

  const entries = useMemo(
    () => makeEntries(bids.slice(0, steps)),
--- a/web/pages/tag/[tag].tsx
+++ b/web/pages/tag/[tag].tsx
@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ import { SearchableGrid } from '../../components/contracts-list'
 import { Page } from '../../components/page'
 import { Title } from '../../components/title'
 import { useContracts } from '../../hooks/use-contracts'
+import { useQueryAndSortParams } from '../../hooks/use-sort-and-query-params'

 export default function TagPage() {
  const router = useRouter()
@ -18,10 +19,24 @@ export default function TagPage() {
    )
  }

+  const { query, setQuery, sort, setSort } = useQueryAndSortParams({
+    defaultSort: 'most-traded',
+  })
+
  return (
    <Page>
      <Title text={`#${tag}`} />
-      <SearchableGrid contracts={contracts === 'loading' ? [] : contracts} />
+      {contracts === 'loading' ? (
+        <></>
+      ) : (
+        <SearchableGrid
+          contracts={contracts}
+          query={query}
+          setQuery={setQuery}
+          sort={sort}
+          setSort={setSort}
+        />
+      )}
    </Page>
  )
 }
--- a/web/pages/trades.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/trades.tsx
@ -4,13 +4,13 @@ import { SEO } from '../components/SEO'
 import { Title } from '../components/title'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'

-export default function BetsPage() {
+export default function TradesPage() {
  const user = useUser()

  return (
    <Page>
-      <SEO title="Your bets" description="Your bets" url="/bets" />
-      <Title text="Your bets" />
+      <SEO title="Your trades" description="Your trades" url="/trades" />
+      <Title text="Your trades" />
      {user && <BetsList user={user} />}
    </Page>
  )
--- a/web/public/logo-banner.png
+++ b/web/public/logo-banner.png
--- a/web/public/logo-bg.png
+++ b/web/public/logo-bg.png
--- a/web/public/twitter-icon-white.svg
+++ b/web/public/twitter-icon-white.svg
@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
+<!-- Generator: Adobe Illustrator 24.2.0, SVG Export Plug-In . SVG Version: 6.00 Build 0)  -->
+<svg version="1.1" id="Logo" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" x="0px" y="0px"
+	 viewBox="0 0 248 204" style="enable-background:new 0 0 248 204;" xml:space="preserve">
+<style type="text/css">
+	.st0{fill:#FFFFFF;}
+</style>
+<g id="Logo_1_">
+	<path id="white_background" class="st0" d="M221.95,51.29c0.15,2.17,0.15,4.34,0.15,6.53c0,66.73-50.8,143.69-143.69,143.69v-0.04
+		C50.97,201.51,24.1,193.65,1,178.83c3.99,0.48,8,0.72,12.02,0.73c22.74,0.02,44.83-7.61,62.72-21.66
+		c-21.61-0.41-40.56-14.5-47.18-35.07c7.57,1.46,15.37,1.16,22.8-0.87C27.8,117.2,10.85,96.5,10.85,72.46c0-0.22,0-0.43,0-0.64
+		c7.02,3.91,14.88,6.08,22.92,6.32C11.58,63.31,4.74,33.79,18.14,10.71c25.64,31.55,63.47,50.73,104.08,52.76
+		c-4.07-17.54,1.49-35.92,14.61-48.25c20.34-19.12,52.33-18.14,71.45,2.19c11.31-2.23,22.15-6.38,32.07-12.26
+		c-3.77,11.69-11.66,21.62-22.2,27.93c10.01-1.18,19.79-3.86,29-7.95C240.37,35.29,231.83,44.14,221.95,51.29z"/>
+</g>
+</svg>
--- a/web/tailwind.config.js
+++ b/web/tailwind.config.js
@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ module.exports = {
    fontFamily: Object.assign(
      { ...defaultTheme.fontFamily },
      {
-        'major-mono': ['Courier', 'monospace'],
+        'major-mono': ['Major Mono Display', 'monospace'],
        'readex-pro': ['Readex Pro', 'sans-serif'],
      }
    ),
--- a/web/yarn.lock
+++ b/web/yarn.lock
@ -2289,6 +2289,11 @@ fast-levenshtein@^2.0.6:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fast-levenshtein/-/fast-levenshtein-2.0.6.tgz#3d8a5c66883a16a30ca8643e851f19baa7797917"
  integrity sha1-PYpcZog6FqMMqGQ+hR8Zuqd5eRc=

+fast-shallow-equal@^1.0.0:
+  version "1.0.0"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fast-shallow-equal/-/fast-shallow-equal-1.0.0.tgz#d4dcaf6472440dcefa6f88b98e3251e27f25628b"
+  integrity sha512-HPtaa38cPgWvaCFmRNhlc6NG7pv6NUHqjPgVAkWGoB9mQMwYB27/K0CvOM5Czy+qpT3e8XJ6Q4aPAnzpNpzNaw==
+
 fastq@^1.6.0:
  version "1.13.0"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/fastq/-/fastq-1.13.0.tgz#616760f88a7526bdfc596b7cab8c18938c36b98c"
@ -3837,6 +3842,15 @@ react-dom@17.0.2:
    object-assign "^4.1.1"
    scheduler "^0.20.2"

+react-expanding-textarea@^2.3.4:
+  version "2.3.4"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/react-expanding-textarea/-/react-expanding-textarea-2.3.4.tgz#3eee788cf3b36798d0f9aed5a50f752278d44a49"
+  integrity sha512-zg/14CyPrIbjPgjfQGxcCmSv9nCrSNpmYpnqyOnNwaOJb8zxWD/GXN8Dgnp5jx8CPU6uIfZVhxs7h2hiOXiSHQ==
+  dependencies:
+    fast-shallow-equal "^1.0.0"
+    react-with-forwarded-ref "^0.3.3"
+    tslib "^2.0.3"
+
 react-is@17.0.2:
  version "17.0.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/react-is/-/react-is-17.0.2.tgz#e691d4a8e9c789365655539ab372762b0efb54f0"
@ -3866,6 +3880,13 @@ react-refresh@0.8.3:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/react-refresh/-/react-refresh-0.8.3.tgz#721d4657672d400c5e3c75d063c4a85fb2d5d68f"
  integrity sha512-X8jZHc7nCMjaCqoU+V2I0cOhNW+QMBwSUkeXnTi8IPe6zaRWfn60ZzvFDZqWPfmSJfjub7dDW1SP0jaHWLu/hg==

+react-with-forwarded-ref@^0.3.3:
+  version "0.3.4"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/react-with-forwarded-ref/-/react-with-forwarded-ref-0.3.4.tgz#b1e884ea081ec3c5dd578f37889159797454c0a5"
+  integrity sha512-SRq/uTdTh+02JDwYzEEhY2aNNWl/CP2EKP2nQtXzhJw06w6PgYnJt2ObrebvFJu6+wGzX3vDHU3H/ux9hxyZUQ==
+  dependencies:
+    tslib "^2.0.3"
+
 react@17.0.2:
  version "17.0.2"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/react/-/react-17.0.2.tgz#d0b5cc516d29eb3eee383f75b62864cfb6800037"
@ -4508,7 +4529,7 @@ tslib@^1.8.1, tslib@^1.9.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/tslib/-/tslib-1.14.1.tgz#cf2d38bdc34a134bcaf1091c41f6619e2f672d00"
  integrity sha512-Xni35NKzjgMrwevysHTCArtLDpPvye8zV/0E4EyYn43P7/7qvQwPh9BGkHewbMulVntbigmcT7rdX3BNo9wRJg==

-tslib@^2.1.0:
+tslib@^2.0.3, tslib@^2.1.0:
  version "2.3.1"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/tslib/-/tslib-2.3.1.tgz#e8a335add5ceae51aa261d32a490158ef042ef01"
  integrity sha512-77EbyPPpMz+FRFRuAFlWMtmgUWGe9UOG2Z25NqCwiIjRhOf5iKGuzSe5P2w1laq+FkRy4p+PCuVkJSGkzTEKVw==