Merge branch 'main' of https://github.com/marsteralex/manifold

2022-09-20 12:48:57 -04:00 · 2022-09-20 12:48:57 -04:00 · b1ac37ea87
commit b1ac37ea87
parent 5f2bdf02bc 6d7fbd69c7
72 changed files with 1371 additions and 1338 deletions
--- a/common/calculate.ts
+++ b/common/calculate.ts
@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { maxBy, sortBy, sum, sumBy } from 'lodash'
+import { maxBy, partition, sortBy, sum, sumBy } from 'lodash'
 import { Bet, LimitBet } from './bet'
 import {
  calculateCpmmSale,
@ -255,3 +255,43 @@ export function getTopAnswer(
  )
  return top?.answer
 }
+
+export function getLargestPosition(contract: Contract, userBets: Bet[]) {
+  let yesFloorShares = 0,
+    yesShares = 0,
+    noShares = 0,
+    noFloorShares = 0
+
+  if (userBets.length === 0) {
+    return null
+  }
+  if (contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
+    const answerCounts: { [outcome: string]: number } = {}
+    for (const bet of userBets) {
+      if (bet.outcome) {
+        if (!answerCounts[bet.outcome]) {
+          answerCounts[bet.outcome] = bet.amount
+        } else {
+          answerCounts[bet.outcome] += bet.amount
+        }
+      }
+    }
+    const majorityAnswer =
+      maxBy(Object.keys(answerCounts), (outcome) => answerCounts[outcome]) ?? ''
+    return {
+      prob: undefined,
+      shares: answerCounts[majorityAnswer] || 0,
+      outcome: majorityAnswer,
+    }
+  }
+
+  const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(userBets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
+  yesShares = sumBy(yesBets, (bet) => bet.shares)
+  noShares = sumBy(noBets, (bet) => bet.shares)
+  yesFloorShares = Math.floor(yesShares)
+  noFloorShares = Math.floor(noShares)
+
+  const shares = yesFloorShares || noFloorShares
+  const outcome = yesFloorShares > noFloorShares ? 'YES' : 'NO'
+  return { shares, outcome }
+}
--- a/common/comment.ts
+++ b/common/comment.ts
@ -33,6 +33,11 @@ export type OnContract = {
  // denormalized from bet
  betAmount?: number
  betOutcome?: string
+
+  // denormalized based on betting history
+  commenterPositionProb?: number // binary only
+  commenterPositionShares?: number
+  commenterPositionOutcome?: string
 }

 export type OnGroup = {
--- a/common/contract.ts
+++ b/common/contract.ts
@ -148,7 +148,7 @@ export const OUTCOME_TYPES = [
  'NUMERIC',
 ] as const

-export const MAX_QUESTION_LENGTH = 480
+export const MAX_QUESTION_LENGTH = 240
 export const MAX_DESCRIPTION_LENGTH = 16000
 export const MAX_TAG_LENGTH = 60

--- a/common/economy.ts
+++ b/common/economy.ts
@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ export const FIXED_ANTE = econ?.FIXED_ANTE ?? 100
 export const STARTING_BALANCE = econ?.STARTING_BALANCE ?? 1000
 // for sus users, i.e. multiple sign ups for same person
 export const SUS_STARTING_BALANCE = econ?.SUS_STARTING_BALANCE ?? 10
-export const REFERRAL_AMOUNT = econ?.REFERRAL_AMOUNT ?? 500
+export const REFERRAL_AMOUNT = econ?.REFERRAL_AMOUNT ?? 250

 export const UNIQUE_BETTOR_BONUS_AMOUNT = econ?.UNIQUE_BETTOR_BONUS_AMOUNT ?? 10
 export const BETTING_STREAK_BONUS_AMOUNT =
--- a/common/envs/dev.ts
+++ b/common/envs/dev.ts
@ -16,4 +16,6 @@ export const DEV_CONFIG: EnvConfig = {
  cloudRunId: 'w3txbmd3ba',
  cloudRunRegion: 'uc',
  amplitudeApiKey: 'fd8cbfd964b9a205b8678a39faae71b3',
+  // this is Phil's deployment
+  twitchBotEndpoint: 'https://king-prawn-app-5btyw.ondigitalocean.app',
 }
--- a/common/envs/prod.ts
+++ b/common/envs/prod.ts
@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ export type EnvConfig = {
  domain: string
  firebaseConfig: FirebaseConfig
  amplitudeApiKey?: string
+  twitchBotEndpoint?: string

  // IDs for v2 cloud functions -- find these by deploying a cloud function and
  // examining the URL, https://[name]-[cloudRunId]-[cloudRunRegion].a.run.app
@ -66,6 +67,7 @@ export const PROD_CONFIG: EnvConfig = {
    appId: '1:128925704902:web:f61f86944d8ffa2a642dc7',
    measurementId: 'G-SSFK1Q138D',
  },
+  twitchBotEndpoint: 'https://twitch-bot-nggbo3neva-uc.a.run.app',
  cloudRunId: 'nggbo3neva',
  cloudRunRegion: 'uc',
  adminEmails: [
@ -82,9 +84,9 @@ export const PROD_CONFIG: EnvConfig = {
  visibility: 'PUBLIC',

  moneyMoniker: 'M$',
-  bettor: 'predictor',
-  pastBet: 'prediction',
-  presentBet: 'predict',
+  bettor: 'trader',
+  pastBet: 'trade',
+  presentBet: 'trade',
  navbarLogoPath: '',
  faviconPath: '/favicon.ico',
  newQuestionPlaceholders: [
--- a/common/stats.ts
+++ b/common/stats.ts
@ -1,20 +1,22 @@
 export type Stats = {
  startDate: number
  dailyActiveUsers: number[]
+  dailyActiveUsersWeeklyAvg: number[]
  weeklyActiveUsers: number[]
  monthlyActiveUsers: number[]
+  d1: number[]
+  d1WeeklyAvg: number[]
+  nd1: number[]
+  nd1WeeklyAvg: number[]
+  nw1: number[]
  dailyBetCounts: number[]
  dailyContractCounts: number[]
  dailyCommentCounts: number[]
  dailySignups: number[]
  weekOnWeekRetention: number[]
  monthlyRetention: number[]
-  weeklyActivationRate: number[]
-  topTenthActions: {
-    daily: number[]
-    weekly: number[]
-    monthly: number[]
-  }
+  dailyActivationRate: number[]
+  dailyActivationRateWeeklyAvg: number[]
  manaBet: {
    daily: number[]
    weekly: number[]
--- a/common/user.ts
+++ b/common/user.ts
@ -56,11 +56,6 @@ export type PrivateUser = {
  username: string // denormalized from User

  email?: string
-  unsubscribedFromResolutionEmails?: boolean
-  unsubscribedFromCommentEmails?: boolean
-  unsubscribedFromAnswerEmails?: boolean
-  unsubscribedFromGenericEmails?: boolean
-  unsubscribedFromWeeklyTrendingEmails?: boolean
  weeklyTrendingEmailSent?: boolean
  manaBonusEmailSent?: boolean
  initialDeviceToken?: string
@ -86,9 +81,11 @@ export type PortfolioMetrics = {
 export const MANIFOLD_USERNAME = 'ManifoldMarkets'
 export const MANIFOLD_AVATAR_URL = 'https://manifold.markets/logo-bg-white.png'

-export const BETTOR = ENV_CONFIG.bettor ?? 'bettor' // aka predictor
-export const BETTORS = ENV_CONFIG.bettor + 's' ?? 'bettors'
-export const PRESENT_BET = ENV_CONFIG.presentBet ?? 'bet' // aka predict
-export const PRESENT_BETS = ENV_CONFIG.presentBet + 's' ?? 'bets'
-export const PAST_BET = ENV_CONFIG.pastBet ?? 'bet' // aka prediction
-export const PAST_BETS = ENV_CONFIG.pastBet + 's' ?? 'bets' // aka predictions
+// TODO: remove. Hardcoding the strings would be better.
+// Different views require different language.
+export const BETTOR = ENV_CONFIG.bettor ?? 'trader'
+export const BETTORS = ENV_CONFIG.bettor + 's' ?? 'traders'
+export const PRESENT_BET = ENV_CONFIG.presentBet ?? 'trade'
+export const PRESENT_BETS = ENV_CONFIG.presentBet + 's' ?? 'trades'
+export const PAST_BET = ENV_CONFIG.pastBet ?? 'trade'
+export const PAST_BETS = ENV_CONFIG.pastBet + 's' ?? 'trades'
--- a/firestore.rules
+++ b/firestore.rules
@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ service cloud.firestore {
      allow read;
      allow update: if userId == request.auth.uid
                       && request.resource.data.diff(resource.data).affectedKeys()
-                                                                    .hasOnly(['bio', 'bannerUrl', 'website', 'twitterHandle', 'discordHandle', 'followedCategories', 'lastPingTime','shouldShowWelcome', 'hasSeenContractFollowModal']);
+                                                                    .hasOnly(['bio', 'bannerUrl', 'website', 'twitterHandle', 'discordHandle', 'followedCategories', 'lastPingTime','shouldShowWelcome', 'hasSeenContractFollowModal', 'homeSections']);
      // User referral rules
      allow update: if userId == request.auth.uid
                         && request.resource.data.diff(resource.data).affectedKeys()
@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ service cloud.firestore {
      allow read: if userId == request.auth.uid || isAdmin();
      allow update: if (userId == request.auth.uid || isAdmin())
                       && request.resource.data.diff(resource.data).affectedKeys()
-                         .hasOnly(['apiKey', 'unsubscribedFromResolutionEmails', 'unsubscribedFromCommentEmails', 'unsubscribedFromAnswerEmails', 'unsubscribedFromWeeklyTrendingEmails', 'notificationPreferences', 'twitchInfo']);
+                         .hasOnly(['apiKey', 'notificationPreferences', 'twitchInfo']);
    }

    match /private-users/{userId}/views/{viewId} {
@ -196,7 +196,6 @@ service cloud.firestore {
        allow read;
        allow create: if request.auth != null && commentMatchesUser(request.auth.uid, request.resource.data) && isGroupMember();
      }
-
    }

      match /posts/{postId} {
--- a/functions/README.md
+++ b/functions/README.md
@ -65,5 +65,6 @@ Adapted from https://firebase.google.com/docs/functions/get-started

 Secrets are strings that shouldn't be checked into Git (eg API keys, passwords). We store these using [Google Secret Manager](https://console.cloud.google.com/security/secret-manager), which provides them as environment variables to functions that require them. Some useful workflows:

- Set a secret: `$ firebase functions:secrets:set stripe.test_secret="THE-API-KEY"`
+- Set a secret: `$ firebase functions:secrets:set STRIPE_APIKEY`
+  - Then, enter the secret in the prompt.
 - Read a secret: `$ firebase functions:secrets:access STRIPE_APIKEY`
--- a/functions/package.json
+++ b/functions/package.json
@ -39,6 +39,7 @@
    "lodash": "4.17.21",
    "mailgun-js": "0.22.0",
    "module-alias": "2.2.2",
+    "node-fetch": "2",
    "react-masonry-css": "1.0.16",
    "stripe": "8.194.0",
    "zod": "3.17.2"
@ -46,6 +47,7 @@
  "devDependencies": {
    "@types/mailgun-js": "0.22.12",
    "@types/module-alias": "2.0.1",
+    "@types/node-fetch": "2.6.2",
    "firebase-functions-test": "0.3.3"
  },
  "private": true
--- a/functions/src/email-templates/new-unique-bettor.html
+++ b/functions/src/email-templates/new-unique-bettor.html
@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
 <head>
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width" />
  <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" />
-  <title>New unique predictors on your market</title>
+  <title>New unique traders on your market</title>

  <style type="text/css">
    img {
@ -214,14 +214,14 @@
                           style="line-height: 24px; margin: 10px 0; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"
                           data-testid="4XoHRGw1Y"><span
                          style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:18px;">
-                          Your market <a href='{{marketUrl}}'>{{marketTitle}}</a> just got its first prediction from a user!
+                          Your market <a href='{{marketUrl}}'>{{marketTitle}}</a> just got its first trade from a user!
                          <br/>
                          <br/>
                          We sent you a <span style='color: #11b981'>{{bonusString}}</span> bonus for
-                          creating a market that appeals to others, and we'll do so for each new predictor.
+                          creating a market that appeals to others, and we'll do so for each new trader.
                          <br/>
                          <br/>
-                          Keep up the good work and check out your newest predictor below!
+                          Keep up the good work and check out your newest trader below!
                        </span></p>
                      </div>
                    </td>
--- a/functions/src/email-templates/new-unique-bettors.html
+++ b/functions/src/email-templates/new-unique-bettors.html
@ -9,7 +9,7 @@
 <head>
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width" />
  <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" />
-  <title>New unique predictors on your market</title>
+  <title>New unique traders on your market</title>

  <style type="text/css">
    img {
@ -214,14 +214,14 @@
                           style="line-height: 24px; margin: 10px 0; margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;"
                           data-testid="4XoHRGw1Y"><span
                          style="color:#000000;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:18px;">
-                          Your market <a href='{{marketUrl}}'>{{marketTitle}}</a> got predictions from a total of {{totalPredictors}} users!
+                          Your market <a href='{{marketUrl}}'>{{marketTitle}}</a> has attracted {{totalPredictors}} total traders!
                          <br/>
                          <br/>
-                          We sent you a <span style='color: #11b981'>{{bonusString}}</span> bonus for getting {{newPredictors}} new predictors,
-                          and we'll continue to do so for each new predictor, (although we won't send you any more emails about it for this market).
+                          We sent you a <span style='color: #11b981'>{{bonusString}}</span> bonus for getting {{newPredictors}} new traders,
+                          and we'll continue to do so for each new trader, (although we won't send you any more emails about it for this market).
                          <br/>
                          <br/>
-                          Keep up the good work and check out your newest predictors below!
+                          Keep up the good work and check out your newest traders below!
                        </span></p>
                      </div>
                    </td>
--- a/functions/src/email-templates/one-week.html
+++ b/functions/src/email-templates/one-week.html
@ -192,7 +192,7 @@
                                tips on comments and markets</span></li>
                      <li style="line-height:23px;"><span
                        style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;">Unique
-                                predictor bonus for each user who predicts on your
+                                trader bonus for each user who trades on your
                                markets</span></li>
                      <li style="line-height:23px;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;"><a
                        class="link-build-content" style="color:inherit;; text-decoration: none;"
--- a/functions/src/email-templates/welcome.html
+++ b/functions/src/email-templates/welcome.html
@ -210,7 +210,7 @@
                                  class="link-build-content" style="color:inherit;; text-decoration: none;"
                                  target="_blank" href="https://manifold.markets/referrals"><span
                                    style="color:#55575d;font-family:Arial;font-size:18px;"><u>Refer
-                                      your friends</u></span></a> and earn M$500 for each signup!</span></li>
+                                      your friends</u></span></a> and earn M$250 for each signup!</span></li>

                            <li style="line-height:23px;"><span style="font-family:Arial, sans-serif;font-size:18px;"><a
                                  class="link-build-content" style="color:inherit;; text-decoration: none;"
--- a/functions/src/on-create-bet.ts
+++ b/functions/src/on-create-bet.ts
@ -3,7 +3,14 @@ import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import { keyBy, uniq } from 'lodash'

 import { Bet, LimitBet } from '../../common/bet'
-import { getUser, getValues, isProd, log } from './utils'
+import {
+  getContractPath,
+  getUser,
+  getValues,
+  isProd,
+  log,
+  revalidateStaticProps,
+} from './utils'
 import {
  createBetFillNotification,
  createBettingStreakBonusNotification,
@ -24,8 +31,6 @@ import {
 } from '../../common/antes'
 import { APIError } from '../../common/api'
 import { User } from '../../common/user'
-import { UNIQUE_BETTOR_LIQUIDITY_AMOUNT } from '../../common/antes'
-import { addHouseLiquidity } from './add-liquidity'
 import { DAY_MS } from '../../common/util/time'
 import { BettingStreakBonusTxn, UniqueBettorBonusTxn } from '../../common/txn'

@ -33,7 +38,7 @@ const firestore = admin.firestore()
 const BONUS_START_DATE = new Date('2022-07-13T15:30:00.000Z').getTime()

 export const onCreateBet = functions
-  .runWith({ secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'] })
+  .runWith({ secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY', 'API_SECRET'] })
  .firestore.document('contracts/{contractId}/bets/{betId}')
  .onCreate(async (change, context) => {
    const { contractId } = context.params as {
@ -73,7 +78,7 @@ export const onCreateBet = functions
    await notifyFills(bet, contract, eventId, bettor)
    await updateBettingStreak(bettor, bet, contract, eventId)

-    await firestore.collection('users').doc(bettor.id).update({ lastBetTime })
+    await revalidateStaticProps(getContractPath(contract))
  })

 const updateBettingStreak = async (
@ -82,23 +87,30 @@ const updateBettingStreak = async (
  contract: Contract,
  eventId: string
 ) => {
+  const { newBettingStreak } = await firestore.runTransaction(async (trans) => {
+    const userDoc = firestore.collection('users').doc(user.id)
+    const bettor = (await trans.get(userDoc)).data() as User
    const now = Date.now()
    const currentDateResetTime = currentDateBettingStreakResetTime()
    // if now is before reset time, use yesterday's reset time
    const lastDateResetTime = currentDateResetTime - DAY_MS
    const betStreakResetTime =
      now < currentDateResetTime ? lastDateResetTime : currentDateResetTime
-  const lastBetTime = user?.lastBetTime ?? 0
+    const lastBetTime = bettor?.lastBetTime ?? 0

    // If they've already bet after the reset time
-  if (lastBetTime > betStreakResetTime) return
+    if (lastBetTime > betStreakResetTime) return { newBettingStreak: undefined }

-  const newBettingStreak = (user?.currentBettingStreak ?? 0) + 1
+    const newBettingStreak = (bettor?.currentBettingStreak ?? 0) + 1
    // Otherwise, add 1 to their betting streak
-  await firestore.collection('users').doc(user.id).update({
+    await trans.update(userDoc, {
      currentBettingStreak: newBettingStreak,
+      lastBetTime: bet.createdTime,
    })
-
+    return { newBettingStreak }
+  })
+  if (!newBettingStreak) return
+  const result = await firestore.runTransaction(async (trans) => {
    // Send them the bonus times their streak
    const bonusAmount = Math.min(
      BETTING_STREAK_BONUS_AMOUNT * newBettingStreak,
@ -110,8 +122,7 @@ const updateBettingStreak = async (
    const bonusTxnDetails = {
      currentBettingStreak: newBettingStreak,
    }
-  // TODO: set the id of the txn to the eventId to prevent duplicates
-  const result = await firestore.runTransaction(async (trans) => {
+
    const bonusTxn: TxnData = {
      fromId: fromUserId,
      fromType: 'BANK',
@ -123,41 +134,46 @@ const updateBettingStreak = async (
      description: JSON.stringify(bonusTxnDetails),
      data: bonusTxnDetails,
    } as Omit<BettingStreakBonusTxn, 'id' | 'createdTime'>
-    return await runTxn(trans, bonusTxn)
+    const { message, txn, status } = await runTxn(trans, bonusTxn)
+    return { message, txn, status, bonusAmount }
  })
-  if (!result.txn) {
+  if (result.status != 'success') {
    log("betting streak bonus txn couldn't be made")
    log('status:', result.status)
    log('message:', result.message)
    return
  }
-
+  if (result.txn)
    await createBettingStreakBonusNotification(
      user,
      result.txn.id,
      bet,
      contract,
-    bonusAmount,
+      result.bonusAmount,
      newBettingStreak,
      eventId
    )
 }

 const updateUniqueBettorsAndGiveCreatorBonus = async (
-  contract: Contract,
+  oldContract: Contract,
  eventId: string,
  bettor: User
 ) => {
+  const { newUniqueBettorIds } = await firestore.runTransaction(
+    async (trans) => {
+      const contractDoc = firestore.collection(`contracts`).doc(oldContract.id)
+      const contract = (await trans.get(contractDoc)).data() as Contract
      let previousUniqueBettorIds = contract.uniqueBettorIds

+      const betsSnap = await trans.get(
+        firestore.collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/bets`)
+      )
      if (!previousUniqueBettorIds) {
-    const contractBets = (
-      await firestore.collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/bets`).get()
-    ).docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
+        const contractBets = betsSnap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)

        if (contractBets.length === 0) {
-      log(`No bets for contract ${contract.id}`)
-      return
+          return { newUniqueBettorIds: undefined }
        }

        previousUniqueBettorIds = uniq(
@ -175,22 +191,23 @@ const updateUniqueBettorsAndGiveCreatorBonus = async (
        log(`Got ${previousUniqueBettorIds} unique bettors`)
        isNewUniqueBettor && log(`And a new unique bettor ${bettor.id}`)

-    await firestore.collection(`contracts`).doc(contract.id).update({
+        await trans.update(contractDoc, {
          uniqueBettorIds: newUniqueBettorIds,
          uniqueBettorCount: newUniqueBettorIds.length,
        })
      }

      // No need to give a bonus for the creator's bet
-  if (!isNewUniqueBettor || bettor.id == contract.creatorId) return
+      if (!isNewUniqueBettor || bettor.id == contract.creatorId)
+        return { newUniqueBettorIds: undefined }

-  if (contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1') {
-    await addHouseLiquidity(contract, UNIQUE_BETTOR_LIQUIDITY_AMOUNT)
+      return { newUniqueBettorIds }
    }
+  )
+  if (!newUniqueBettorIds) return

-  // Create combined txn for all new unique bettors
  const bonusTxnDetails = {
-    contractId: contract.id,
+    contractId: oldContract.id,
    uniqueNewBettorId: bettor.id,
  }
  const fromUserId = isProd()
@ -199,12 +216,11 @@ const updateUniqueBettorsAndGiveCreatorBonus = async (
  const fromSnap = await firestore.doc(`users/${fromUserId}`).get()
  if (!fromSnap.exists) throw new APIError(400, 'From user not found.')
  const fromUser = fromSnap.data() as User
-  // TODO: set the id of the txn to the eventId to prevent duplicates
  const result = await firestore.runTransaction(async (trans) => {
    const bonusTxn: TxnData = {
      fromId: fromUser.id,
      fromType: 'BANK',
-      toId: contract.creatorId,
+      toId: oldContract.creatorId,
      toType: 'USER',
      amount: UNIQUE_BETTOR_BONUS_AMOUNT,
      token: 'M$',
@ -212,21 +228,25 @@ const updateUniqueBettorsAndGiveCreatorBonus = async (
      description: JSON.stringify(bonusTxnDetails),
      data: bonusTxnDetails,
    } as Omit<UniqueBettorBonusTxn, 'id' | 'createdTime'>
-    return await runTxn(trans, bonusTxn)
+    const { status, message, txn } = await runTxn(trans, bonusTxn)
+    return { status, newUniqueBettorIds, message, txn }
  })

  if (result.status != 'success' || !result.txn) {
-    log(`No bonus for user: ${contract.creatorId} - status:`, result.status)
+    log(`No bonus for user: ${oldContract.creatorId} - status:`, result.status)
    log('message:', result.message)
  } else {
-    log(`Bonus txn for user: ${contract.creatorId} completed:`, result.txn?.id)
+    log(
+      `Bonus txn for user: ${oldContract.creatorId} completed:`,
+      result.txn?.id
+    )
    await createUniqueBettorBonusNotification(
-      contract.creatorId,
+      oldContract.creatorId,
      bettor,
      result.txn.id,
-      contract,
+      oldContract,
      result.txn.amount,
-      newUniqueBettorIds,
+      result.newUniqueBettorIds,
      eventId + '-unique-bettor-bonus'
    )
  }
--- a/functions/src/on-create-comment-on-contract.ts
+++ b/functions/src/on-create-comment-on-contract.ts
@ -1,10 +1,18 @@
 import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import { compact } from 'lodash'
-import { getContract, getUser, getValues } from './utils'
+import {
+  getContract,
+  getContractPath,
+  getUser,
+  getValues,
+  revalidateStaticProps,
+} from './utils'
 import { ContractComment } from '../../common/comment'
 import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
 import { Answer } from '../../common/answer'
+import { getLargestPosition } from '../../common/calculate'
+import { maxBy } from 'lodash'
 import {
  createCommentOrAnswerOrUpdatedContractNotification,
  replied_users_info,
@ -32,6 +40,8 @@ export const onCreateCommentOnContract = functions
      contractQuestion: contract.question,
    })

+    await revalidateStaticProps(getContractPath(contract))
+
    const comment = change.data() as ContractComment
    const lastCommentTime = comment.createdTime

@ -45,6 +55,32 @@ export const onCreateCommentOnContract = functions
      .doc(contract.id)
      .update({ lastCommentTime, lastUpdatedTime: Date.now() })

+    const previousBetsQuery = await firestore
+      .collection('contracts')
+      .doc(contractId)
+      .collection('bets')
+      .where('createdTime', '<', comment.createdTime)
+      .get()
+    const previousBets = previousBetsQuery.docs.map((d) => d.data() as Bet)
+    const position = getLargestPosition(
+      contract,
+      previousBets.filter((b) => b.userId === comment.userId && !b.isAnte)
+    )
+    if (position) {
+      const fields: { [k: string]: unknown } = {
+        commenterPositionShares: position.shares,
+        commenterPositionOutcome: position.outcome,
+      }
+      const previousProb =
+        contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+          ? maxBy(previousBets, (bet) => bet.createdTime)?.probAfter
+          : undefined
+      if (previousProb != null) {
+        fields.commenterPositionProb = previousProb
+      }
+      await change.ref.update(fields)
+    }
+
    let bet: Bet | undefined
    let answer: Answer | undefined
    if (comment.answerOutcome) {
--- a/functions/src/on-create-user.ts
+++ b/functions/src/on-create-user.ts
@ -4,14 +4,8 @@ import * as utc from 'dayjs/plugin/utc'
 dayjs.extend(utc)

 import { getPrivateUser } from './utils'
-import { User } from 'common/user'
-import {
-  sendCreatorGuideEmail,
-  sendInterestingMarketsEmail,
-  sendPersonalFollowupEmail,
-  sendWelcomeEmail,
-} from './emails'
-import { getTrendingContracts } from './weekly-markets-emails'
+import { User } from '../../common/user'
+import { sendPersonalFollowupEmail, sendWelcomeEmail } from './emails'

 export const onCreateUser = functions
  .runWith({ secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'] })
@ -23,23 +17,6 @@ export const onCreateUser = functions

    await sendWelcomeEmail(user, privateUser)

-    const guideSendTime = dayjs().add(28, 'hours').toString()
-    await sendCreatorGuideEmail(user, privateUser, guideSendTime)
-
    const followupSendTime = dayjs().add(48, 'hours').toString()
    await sendPersonalFollowupEmail(user, privateUser, followupSendTime)
-
-    // skip email if weekly email is about to go out
-    const day = dayjs().utc().day()
-    if (day === 0 || (day === 1 && dayjs().utc().hour() <= 19)) return
-
-    const contracts = await getTrendingContracts()
-    const marketsSendTime = dayjs().add(24, 'hours').toString()
-
-    await sendInterestingMarketsEmail(
-      user,
-      privateUser,
-      contracts,
-      marketsSendTime
-    )
  })
--- a/functions/src/reset-weekly-emails-flag.ts
+++ b/functions/src/reset-weekly-emails-flag.ts
@ -3,19 +3,18 @@ import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
 import { getAllPrivateUsers } from './utils'

 export const resetWeeklyEmailsFlag = functions
-  .runWith({ secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'] })
-  // every Monday at 12 am PT (UTC -07:00) ( 12 hours before the emails will be sent)
-  .pubsub.schedule('0 7 * * 1')
+  .runWith({
+    timeoutSeconds: 300,
+    memory: '4GB',
+  })
+  .pubsub // every Monday at 12 am PT (UTC -07:00) ( 12 hours before the emails will be sent)
+  .schedule('0 7 * * 1')
  .timeZone('Etc/UTC')
  .onRun(async () => {
    const privateUsers = await getAllPrivateUsers()
-    // get all users that haven't unsubscribed from weekly emails
-    const privateUsersToSendEmailsTo = privateUsers.filter((user) => {
-      return !user.unsubscribedFromWeeklyTrendingEmails
-    })
    const firestore = admin.firestore()
    await Promise.all(
-      privateUsersToSendEmailsTo.map(async (user) => {
+      privateUsers.map(async (user) => {
        return firestore.collection('private-users').doc(user.id).update({
          weeklyTrendingEmailSent: false,
        })
--- a/functions/src/resolve-market.ts
+++ b/functions/src/resolve-market.ts
@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import {
  RESOLUTIONS,
 } from '../../common/contract'
 import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
-import { getUser, getValues, isProd, log, payUser } from './utils'
+import { getContractPath, getUser, getValues, isProd, log, payUser, revalidateStaticProps } from './utils'
 import {
  getLoanPayouts,
  getPayouts,
@ -171,6 +171,8 @@ export const resolvemarket = newEndpoint(opts, async (req, auth) => {
  await processPayouts([...payouts, ...loanPayouts])
  await undoUniqueBettorRewardsIfCancelResolution(contract, outcome)

+  await revalidateStaticProps(getContractPath(contract))
+
  const userPayoutsWithoutLoans = groupPayoutsByUser(payouts)

  const userInvestments = mapValues(
--- a/functions/src/scripts/backfill-comment-position-data.ts
+++ b/functions/src/scripts/backfill-comment-position-data.ts
@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+// Filling in historical bet positions on comments.
+
+// Warning: This just recalculates all of them, rather than trying to
+// figure out which ones are out of date, since I'm using it to fill them
+// in once in the first place.
+
+import { maxBy } from 'lodash'
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import { filterDefined } from '../../../common/util/array'
+import { Bet } from '../../../common/bet'
+import { Comment } from '../../../common/comment'
+import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
+import { getLargestPosition } from '../../../common/calculate'
+import { initAdmin } from './script-init'
+import { DocumentSnapshot } from 'firebase-admin/firestore'
+import { log, writeAsync } from '../utils'
+
+initAdmin()
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+async function getContractsById() {
+  const contracts = await firestore.collection('contracts').get()
+  const results = Object.fromEntries(
+    contracts.docs.map((doc) => [doc.id, doc.data() as Contract])
+  )
+  log(`Found ${contracts.size} contracts.`)
+  return results
+}
+
+async function getCommentsByContractId() {
+  const comments = await firestore
+    .collectionGroup('comments')
+    .where('contractId', '!=', null)
+    .get()
+  const results = new Map<string, DocumentSnapshot[]>()
+  comments.forEach((doc) => {
+    const contractId = doc.get('contractId')
+    const contractComments = results.get(contractId) || []
+    contractComments.push(doc)
+    results.set(contractId, contractComments)
+  })
+  log(`Found ${comments.size} comments on ${results.size} contracts.`)
+  return results
+}
+
+// not in a transaction for speed -- may need to be run more than once
+async function denormalize() {
+  const contractsById = await getContractsById()
+  const commentsByContractId = await getCommentsByContractId()
+  for (const [contractId, comments] of commentsByContractId.entries()) {
+    const betsQuery = await firestore
+      .collection('contracts')
+      .doc(contractId)
+      .collection('bets')
+      .get()
+    log(`Loaded ${betsQuery.size} bets for contract ${contractId}.`)
+    const bets = betsQuery.docs.map((d) => d.data() as Bet)
+    const updates = comments.map((doc) => {
+      const comment = doc.data() as Comment
+      const contract = contractsById[contractId]
+      const previousBets = bets.filter(
+        (b) => b.createdTime < comment.createdTime
+      )
+      const position = getLargestPosition(
+        contract,
+        previousBets.filter((b) => b.userId === comment.userId && !b.isAnte)
+      )
+      if (position) {
+        const fields: { [k: string]: unknown } = {
+          commenterPositionShares: position.shares,
+          commenterPositionOutcome: position.outcome,
+        }
+        const previousProb =
+          contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+            ? maxBy(previousBets, (bet) => bet.createdTime)?.probAfter
+            : undefined
+        if (previousProb != null) {
+          fields.commenterPositionProb = previousProb
+        }
+        return { doc: doc.ref, fields }
+      } else {
+        return undefined
+      }
+    })
+    log(`Updating ${updates.length} comments.`)
+    await writeAsync(firestore, filterDefined(updates))
+  }
+}
+
+if (require.main === module) {
+  denormalize().catch((e) => console.error(e))
+}
--- a/functions/src/update-loans.ts
+++ b/functions/src/update-loans.ts
@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { PortfolioMetrics, User } from '../../common/user'
 import { getLoanUpdates } from '../../common/loans'
 import { createLoanIncomeNotification } from './create-notification'
+import { filterDefined } from '../../common/util/array'

 const firestore = admin.firestore()

@ -30,7 +31,8 @@ async function updateLoansCore() {
  log(
    `Loaded ${users.length} users, ${contracts.length} contracts, and ${bets.length} bets.`
  )
-  const userPortfolios = await Promise.all(
+  const userPortfolios = filterDefined(
+    await Promise.all(
      users.map(async (user) => {
        const portfolio = await getValues<PortfolioMetrics>(
          firestore
@ -41,6 +43,7 @@ async function updateLoansCore() {
        return portfolio[0]
      })
    )
+  )
  log(`Loaded ${userPortfolios.length} portfolios`)
  const portfolioByUser = keyBy(userPortfolios, (portfolio) => portfolio.userId)

--- a/functions/src/update-metrics.ts
+++ b/functions/src/update-metrics.ts
@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ import { Group } from 'common/group'
 const firestore = admin.firestore()

 export const updateMetrics = functions
-  .runWith({ memory: '2GB', timeoutSeconds: 540 })
+  .runWith({ memory: '4GB', timeoutSeconds: 540 })
  .pubsub.schedule('every 15 minutes')
  .onRun(updateMetricsCore)

--- a/functions/src/update-stats.ts
+++ b/functions/src/update-stats.ts
@ -1,11 +1,18 @@
 import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
-import { concat, countBy, sortBy, range, zip, uniq, sum, sumBy } from 'lodash'
+import * as dayjs from 'dayjs'
+import * as utc from 'dayjs/plugin/utc'
+import * as timezone from 'dayjs/plugin/timezone'
+dayjs.extend(utc)
+dayjs.extend(timezone)
+
+import { range, zip, uniq, sum, sumBy } from 'lodash'
 import { getValues, log, logMemory } from './utils'
 import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { Comment } from '../../common/comment'
 import { User } from '../../common/user'
+import { Stats } from '../../common/stats'
 import { DAY_MS } from '../../common/util/time'
 import { average } from '../../common/util/math'

@ -103,7 +110,7 @@ export async function getDailyNewUsers(
 }

 export const updateStatsCore = async () => {
-  const today = Date.now()
+  const today = dayjs().tz('America/Los_Angeles').startOf('day').valueOf()
  const startDate = today - numberOfDays * DAY_MS

  log('Fetching data for stats update...')
@ -139,73 +146,128 @@ export const updateStatsCore = async () => {
  )

  const dailyActiveUsers = dailyUserIds.map((userIds) => userIds.length)
+  const dailyActiveUsersWeeklyAvg = dailyUserIds.map((_, i) => {
+    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
+    const end = i + 1
+    return average(dailyActiveUsers.slice(start, end))
+  })

  const weeklyActiveUsers = dailyUserIds.map((_, i) => {
    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
-    const end = i
-    const uniques = new Set<string>()
-    for (let j = start; j <= end; j++)
-      dailyUserIds[j].forEach((userId) => uniques.add(userId))
+    const end = i + 1
+    const uniques = new Set<string>(dailyUserIds.slice(start, end).flat())
    return uniques.size
  })

  const monthlyActiveUsers = dailyUserIds.map((_, i) => {
    const start = Math.max(0, i - 29)
-    const end = i
-    const uniques = new Set<string>()
-    for (let j = start; j <= end; j++)
-      dailyUserIds[j].forEach((userId) => uniques.add(userId))
+    const end = i + 1
+    const uniques = new Set<string>(dailyUserIds.slice(start, end).flat())
    return uniques.size
  })

+  const d1 = dailyUserIds.map((userIds, i) => {
+    if (i === 0) return 0
+
+    const uniques = new Set(userIds)
+    const yesterday = dailyUserIds[i - 1]
+
+    const retainedCount = sumBy(yesterday, (userId) =>
+      uniques.has(userId) ? 1 : 0
+    )
+    return retainedCount / uniques.size
+  })
+
+  const d1WeeklyAvg = d1.map((_, i) => {
+    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
+    const end = i + 1
+    return average(d1.slice(start, end))
+  })
+
+  const dailyNewUserIds = dailyNewUsers.map((users) => users.map((u) => u.id))
+  const nd1 = dailyUserIds.map((userIds, i) => {
+    if (i === 0) return 0
+
+    const uniques = new Set(userIds)
+    const yesterday = dailyNewUserIds[i - 1]
+
+    const retainedCount = sumBy(yesterday, (userId) =>
+      uniques.has(userId) ? 1 : 0
+    )
+    return retainedCount / uniques.size
+  })
+
+  const nd1WeeklyAvg = nd1.map((_, i) => {
+    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
+    const end = i + 1
+    return average(nd1.slice(start, end))
+  })
+  const nw1 = dailyNewUserIds.map((_userIds, i) => {
+    if (i < 13) return 0
+
+    const twoWeeksAgo = {
+      start: Math.max(0, i - 13),
+      end: Math.max(0, i - 6),
+    }
+    const lastWeek = {
+      start: Math.max(0, i - 6),
+      end: i + 1,
+    }
+    const newTwoWeeksAgo = new Set<string>(
+      dailyNewUserIds.slice(twoWeeksAgo.start, twoWeeksAgo.end).flat()
+    )
+    const activeLastWeek = new Set<string>(
+      dailyUserIds.slice(lastWeek.start, lastWeek.end).flat()
+    )
+    const retainedCount = sumBy(Array.from(newTwoWeeksAgo), (userId) =>
+      activeLastWeek.has(userId) ? 1 : 0
+    )
+    return retainedCount / newTwoWeeksAgo.size
+  })
+
  const weekOnWeekRetention = dailyUserIds.map((_userId, i) => {
    const twoWeeksAgo = {
      start: Math.max(0, i - 13),
-      end: Math.max(0, i - 7),
+      end: Math.max(0, i - 6),
    }
    const lastWeek = {
      start: Math.max(0, i - 6),
-      end: i,
+      end: i + 1,
    }

-    const activeTwoWeeksAgo = new Set<string>()
-    for (let j = twoWeeksAgo.start; j <= twoWeeksAgo.end; j++) {
-      dailyUserIds[j].forEach((userId) => activeTwoWeeksAgo.add(userId))
-    }
-    const activeLastWeek = new Set<string>()
-    for (let j = lastWeek.start; j <= lastWeek.end; j++) {
-      dailyUserIds[j].forEach((userId) => activeLastWeek.add(userId))
-    }
+    const activeTwoWeeksAgo = new Set<string>(
+      dailyUserIds.slice(twoWeeksAgo.start, twoWeeksAgo.end).flat()
+    )
+    const activeLastWeek = new Set<string>(
+      dailyUserIds.slice(lastWeek.start, lastWeek.end).flat()
+    )
    const retainedCount = sumBy(Array.from(activeTwoWeeksAgo), (userId) =>
      activeLastWeek.has(userId) ? 1 : 0
    )
-    const retainedFrac = retainedCount / activeTwoWeeksAgo.size
-    return Math.round(retainedFrac * 100 * 100) / 100
+    return retainedCount / activeTwoWeeksAgo.size
  })

  const monthlyRetention = dailyUserIds.map((_userId, i) => {
    const twoMonthsAgo = {
-      start: Math.max(0, i - 60),
-      end: Math.max(0, i - 30),
+      start: Math.max(0, i - 59),
+      end: Math.max(0, i - 29),
    }
    const lastMonth = {
-      start: Math.max(0, i - 30),
-      end: i,
+      start: Math.max(0, i - 29),
+      end: i + 1,
    }

-    const activeTwoMonthsAgo = new Set<string>()
-    for (let j = twoMonthsAgo.start; j <= twoMonthsAgo.end; j++) {
-      dailyUserIds[j].forEach((userId) => activeTwoMonthsAgo.add(userId))
-    }
-    const activeLastMonth = new Set<string>()
-    for (let j = lastMonth.start; j <= lastMonth.end; j++) {
-      dailyUserIds[j].forEach((userId) => activeLastMonth.add(userId))
-    }
+    const activeTwoMonthsAgo = new Set<string>(
+      dailyUserIds.slice(twoMonthsAgo.start, twoMonthsAgo.end).flat()
+    )
+    const activeLastMonth = new Set<string>(
+      dailyUserIds.slice(lastMonth.start, lastMonth.end).flat()
+    )
    const retainedCount = sumBy(Array.from(activeTwoMonthsAgo), (userId) =>
      activeLastMonth.has(userId) ? 1 : 0
    )
-    const retainedFrac = retainedCount / activeTwoMonthsAgo.size
-    return Math.round(retainedFrac * 100 * 100) / 100
+    if (activeTwoMonthsAgo.size === 0) return 0
+    return retainedCount / activeTwoMonthsAgo.size
  })

  const firstBetDict: { [userId: string]: number } = {}
@ -216,52 +278,20 @@ export const updateStatsCore = async () => {
      firstBetDict[bet.userId] = i
    }
  }
-  const weeklyActivationRate = dailyNewUsers.map((_, i) => {
-    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
-    const end = i
-    let activatedCount = 0
-    let newUsers = 0
-    for (let j = start; j <= end; j++) {
-      const userIds = dailyNewUsers[j].map((user) => user.id)
-      newUsers += userIds.length
-      for (const userId of userIds) {
-        const dayIndex = firstBetDict[userId]
-        if (dayIndex !== undefined && dayIndex <= end) {
-          activatedCount++
-        }
-      }
-    }
-    const frac = activatedCount / (newUsers || 1)
-    return Math.round(frac * 100 * 100) / 100
+  const dailyActivationRate = dailyNewUsers.map((newUsers, i) => {
+    const activedCount = sumBy(newUsers, (user) => {
+      const firstBet = firstBetDict[user.id]
+      return firstBet === i ? 1 : 0
+    })
+    return activedCount / newUsers.length
+  })
+  const dailyActivationRateWeeklyAvg = dailyActivationRate.map((_, i) => {
+    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
+    const end = i + 1
+    return average(dailyActivationRate.slice(start, end))
  })
-  const dailySignups = dailyNewUsers.map((users) => users.length)

-  const dailyTopTenthActions = zip(
-    dailyContracts,
-    dailyBets,
-    dailyComments
-  ).map(([contracts, bets, comments]) => {
-    const userIds = concat(
-      contracts?.map((c) => c.creatorId) ?? [],
-      bets?.map((b) => b.userId) ?? [],
-      comments?.map((c) => c.userId) ?? []
-    )
-    const counts = Object.values(countBy(userIds))
-    const sortedCounts = sortBy(counts, (count) => count).reverse()
-    if (sortedCounts.length === 0) return 0
-    const tenthPercentile = sortedCounts[Math.floor(sortedCounts.length * 0.1)]
-    return tenthPercentile
-  })
-  const weeklyTopTenthActions = dailyTopTenthActions.map((_, i) => {
-    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
-    const end = i
-    return average(dailyTopTenthActions.slice(start, end))
-  })
-  const monthlyTopTenthActions = dailyTopTenthActions.map((_, i) => {
-    const start = Math.max(0, i - 29)
-    const end = i
-    return average(dailyTopTenthActions.slice(start, end))
-  })
+  const dailySignups = dailyNewUsers.map((users) => users.length)

  // Total mana divided by 100.
  const dailyManaBet = dailyBets.map((bets) => {
@ -269,37 +299,39 @@ export const updateStatsCore = async () => {
  })
  const weeklyManaBet = dailyManaBet.map((_, i) => {
    const start = Math.max(0, i - 6)
-    const end = i
+    const end = i + 1
    const total = sum(dailyManaBet.slice(start, end))
    if (end - start < 7) return (total * 7) / (end - start)
    return total
  })
  const monthlyManaBet = dailyManaBet.map((_, i) => {
    const start = Math.max(0, i - 29)
-    const end = i
+    const end = i + 1
    const total = sum(dailyManaBet.slice(start, end))
-    const range = end - start + 1
+    const range = end - start
    if (range < 30) return (total * 30) / range
    return total
  })

-  const statsData = {
+  const statsData: Stats = {
    startDate: startDate.valueOf(),
    dailyActiveUsers,
+    dailyActiveUsersWeeklyAvg,
    weeklyActiveUsers,
    monthlyActiveUsers,
+    d1,
+    d1WeeklyAvg,
+    nd1,
+    nd1WeeklyAvg,
+    nw1,
    dailyBetCounts,
    dailyContractCounts,
    dailyCommentCounts,
    dailySignups,
    weekOnWeekRetention,
-    weeklyActivationRate,
+    dailyActivationRate,
+    dailyActivationRateWeeklyAvg,
    monthlyRetention,
-    topTenthActions: {
-      daily: dailyTopTenthActions,
-      weekly: weeklyTopTenthActions,
-      monthly: monthlyTopTenthActions,
-    },
    manaBet: {
      daily: dailyManaBet,
      weekly: weeklyManaBet,
--- a/functions/src/utils.ts
+++ b/functions/src/utils.ts
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+import fetch from 'node-fetch'

 import { chunk } from 'lodash'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
@ -17,6 +18,18 @@ export const logMemory = () => {
  }
 }

+export const revalidateStaticProps = async (
+  // Path after domain: e.g. "/JamesGrugett/will-pete-buttigieg-ever-be-us-pres"
+  pathToRevalidate: string
+) => {
+  if (isProd()) {
+    const apiSecret = process.env.API_SECRET as string
+    const queryStr = `?pathToRevalidate=${pathToRevalidate}&apiSecret=${apiSecret}`
+    await fetch('https://manifold.markets/api/v0/revalidate' + queryStr)
+    console.log('Revalidated', pathToRevalidate)
+  }
+}
+
 export type UpdateSpec = {
  doc: admin.firestore.DocumentReference
  fields: { [k: string]: unknown }
@ -153,3 +166,7 @@ export const chargeUser = (

  return updateUserBalance(userId, -charge, isAnte)
 }
+
+export const getContractPath = (contract: Contract) => {
+  return `/${contract.creatorUsername}/${contract.slug}`
+}
--- a/functions/src/weekly-markets-emails.ts
+++ b/functions/src/weekly-markets-emails.ts
@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ import { DAY_MS } from '../../common/util/time'
 import { filterDefined } from '../../common/util/array'

 export const weeklyMarketsEmails = functions
-  .runWith({ secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'] })
+  .runWith({ secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'], memory: '4GB' })
  // every minute on Monday for an hour at 12pm PT (UTC -07:00)
  .pubsub.schedule('* 19 * * 1')
  .timeZone('Etc/UTC')
@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ async function sendTrendingMarketsEmailsToAllUsers() {
  // get all users that haven't unsubscribed from weekly emails
  const privateUsersToSendEmailsTo = privateUsers.filter((user) => {
    return (
-      !user.unsubscribedFromWeeklyTrendingEmails &&
+      user.notificationPreferences.trending_markets.includes('email') &&
      !user.weeklyTrendingEmailSent
    )
  })
--- a/web/components/analytics/charts.tsx
+++ b/web/components/analytics/charts.tsx
@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { Point, ResponsiveLine } from '@nivo/line'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
+import { formatPercent } from 'common/util/format'
 import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { zip } from 'lodash'
 import { useWindowSize } from 'web/hooks/use-window-size'
@ -63,18 +64,21 @@ export function DailyPercentChart(props: {
  startDate: number
  dailyPercent: number[]
  small?: boolean
+  excludeFirstDays?: number
 }) {
-  const { dailyPercent, startDate, small } = props
+  const { dailyPercent, startDate, small, excludeFirstDays } = props
  const { width } = useWindowSize()

  const dates = dailyPercent.map((_, i) =>
    dayjs(startDate).add(i, 'day').toDate()
  )

-  const points = zip(dates, dailyPercent).map(([date, betCount]) => ({
+  const points = zip(dates, dailyPercent)
+    .map(([date, percent]) => ({
      x: date,
-    y: betCount,
+      y: percent,
    }))
+    .slice(excludeFirstDays ?? 0)
  const data = [{ id: 'Percent', data: points, color: '#11b981' }]

  const bottomAxisTicks = width && width < 600 ? 6 : undefined
@ -93,7 +97,7 @@ export function DailyPercentChart(props: {
          type: 'time',
        }}
        axisLeft={{
-          format: (value) => `${value}%`,
+          format: formatPercent,
        }}
        axisBottom={{
          tickValues: bottomAxisTicks,
@ -109,15 +113,15 @@ export function DailyPercentChart(props: {
        margin={{ top: 20, right: 28, bottom: 22, left: 40 }}
        sliceTooltip={({ slice }) => {
          const point = slice.points[0]
-          return <Tooltip point={point} />
+          return <Tooltip point={point} isPercent />
        }}
      />
    </div>
  )
 }

-function Tooltip(props: { point: Point }) {
-  const { point } = props
+function Tooltip(props: { point: Point; isPercent?: boolean }) {
+  const { point, isPercent } = props
  return (
    <Col className="border border-gray-300 bg-white py-2 px-3">
      <div
@ -126,7 +130,8 @@ function Tooltip(props: { point: Point }) {
          color: point.serieColor,
        }}
      >
-        <strong>{point.serieId}</strong> {point.data.yFormatted}
+        <strong>{point.serieId}</strong>{' '}
+        {isPercent ? formatPercent(+point.data.y) : Math.round(+point.data.y)}
      </div>
      <div>{dayjs(point.data.x).format('MMM DD')}</div>
    </Col>
--- a/web/components/answers/answer-resolve-panel.tsx
+++ b/web/components/answers/answer-resolve-panel.tsx
@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { sum } from 'lodash'
-import { useState } from 'react'
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'

 import { FreeResponseContract, MultipleChoiceContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { Col } from '../layout/col'
@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import { Row } from '../layout/row'
 import { ChooseCancelSelector } from '../yes-no-selector'
 import { ResolveConfirmationButton } from '../confirmation-button'
 import { removeUndefinedProps } from 'common/util/object'
+import { BETTOR, PAST_BETS } from 'common/user'

 export function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
  isAdmin: boolean
@ -32,6 +33,18 @@ export function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {

  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
  const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
+  const [warning, setWarning] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (resolveOption === 'CANCEL') {
+      setWarning(
+        `All ${PAST_BETS} will be returned. Unique ${BETTOR} bonuses will be
+            withdrawn from your account.`
+      )
+    } else {
+      setWarning(undefined)
+    }
+  }, [resolveOption])

  const onResolve = async () => {
    if (resolveOption === 'CHOOSE' && answers.length !== 1) return
@ -126,6 +139,7 @@ export function AnswerResolvePanel(props: {
      </Col>

      {!!error && <div className="text-red-500">{error}</div>}
+      {!!warning && <div className="text-warning">{warning}</div>}
    </Col>
  )
 }
--- a/web/components/arrange-home.tsx
+++ b/web/components/arrange-home.tsx
@ -1,14 +1,22 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { DragDropContext, Droppable, Draggable } from 'react-beautiful-dnd'
 import { MenuIcon } from '@heroicons/react/solid'
+import { toast } from 'react-hot-toast'

 import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col'
 import { Row } from 'web/components/layout/row'
 import { Subtitle } from 'web/components/subtitle'
 import { keyBy } from 'lodash'
+import { XCircleIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
+import { Button } from './button'
+import { updateUser } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
+import { leaveGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
+import { User } from 'common/user'
+import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
+import { Group } from 'common/group'

 export function ArrangeHome(props: {
-  sections: { label: string; id: string }[]
+  sections: { label: string; id: string; group?: Group }[]
  setSectionIds: (sections: string[]) => void
 }) {
  const { sections, setSectionIds } = props
@ -40,8 +48,9 @@ export function ArrangeHome(props: {

 function DraggableList(props: {
  title: string
-  items: { id: string; label: string }[]
+  items: { id: string; label: string; group?: Group }[]
 }) {
+  const user = useUser()
  const { title, items } = props
  return (
    <Droppable droppableId={title.toLowerCase()}>
@ -66,6 +75,7 @@ function DraggableList(props: {
                      snapshot.isDragging && 'z-[9000] bg-gray-200'
                    )}
                    item={item}
+                    user={user}
                  />
                </div>
              )}
@ -79,23 +89,53 @@ function DraggableList(props: {
 }

 const SectionItem = (props: {
-  item: { id: string; label: string }
+  item: { id: string; label: string; group?: Group }
+  user: User | null | undefined
  className?: string
 }) => {
-  const { item, className } = props
+  const { item, user, className } = props
+  const { group } = item

  return (
-    <div
+    <Row
      className={clsx(
        className,
-        'flex flex-row items-center gap-4 rounded bg-gray-50 p-2'
+        'items-center justify-between gap-4 rounded bg-gray-50 p-2'
      )}
    >
+      <Row className="items-center gap-4">
        <MenuIcon
          className="h-5 w-5 flex-shrink-0 text-gray-500"
          aria-hidden="true"
        />{' '}
        {item.label}
-    </div>
+      </Row>
+
+      {group && (
+        <Button
+          className="pt-1 pb-1"
+          color="gray-white"
+          onClick={() => {
+            if (user) {
+              const homeSections = (user.homeSections ?? []).filter(
+                (id) => id !== group.id
+              )
+              updateUser(user.id, { homeSections })
+
+              toast.promise(leaveGroup(group, user.id), {
+                loading: 'Unfollowing group...',
+                success: `Unfollowed ${group.name}`,
+                error: "Couldn't unfollow group, try again?",
+              })
+            }
+          }}
+        >
+          <XCircleIcon
+            className={clsx('h-5 w-5 flex-shrink-0')}
+            aria-hidden="true"
+          />
+        </Button>
+      )}
+    </Row>
  )
 }
--- a/web/components/bet-button.tsx
+++ b/web/components/bet-button.tsx
@ -10,7 +10,6 @@ import { useSaveBinaryShares } from './use-save-binary-shares'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Button } from 'web/components/button'
 import { BetSignUpPrompt } from './sign-up-prompt'
-import { PRESENT_BET } from 'common/user'

 /** Button that opens BetPanel in a new modal */
 export default function BetButton(props: {
@ -42,7 +41,7 @@ export default function BetButton(props: {
            )}
            onClick={() => setOpen(true)}
          >
-            {PRESENT_BET}
+            Predict
          </Button>
        ) : (
          <BetSignUpPrompt />
--- a/web/components/bets-list.tsx
+++ b/web/components/bets-list.tsx
@ -756,9 +756,10 @@ function SellButton(props: {

 export function ProfitBadge(props: {
  profitPercent: number
+  round?: boolean
  className?: string
 }) {
-  const { profitPercent, className } = props
+  const { profitPercent, round, className } = props
  if (!profitPercent) return null
  const colors =
    profitPercent > 0
@ -773,7 +774,9 @@ export function ProfitBadge(props: {
        className
      )}
    >
-      {(profitPercent > 0 ? '+' : '') + profitPercent.toFixed(1) + '%'}
+      {(profitPercent > 0 ? '+' : '') +
+        profitPercent.toFixed(round ? 0 : 1) +
+        '%'}
    </span>
  )
 }
--- a/web/components/contract-search.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract-search.tsx
@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
 /* eslint-disable react-hooks/exhaustive-deps */
-import algoliasearch from 'algoliasearch/lite'
 import { SearchOptions } from '@algolia/client-search'
 import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
 import { Contract } from 'common/contract'
@ -11,7 +10,7 @@ import {
 import { ShowTime } from './contract/contract-details'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { useEffect, useLayoutEffect, useRef, useMemo, ReactNode } from 'react'
-import { ENV, IS_PRIVATE_MANIFOLD } from 'common/envs/constants'
+import { IS_PRIVATE_MANIFOLD } from 'common/envs/constants'
 import { useFollows } from 'web/hooks/use-follows'
 import {
  historyStore,
@ -28,14 +27,11 @@ import { DEFAULT_CATEGORY_GROUPS } from 'common/categories'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { safeLocalStorage } from 'web/lib/util/local'
-
-const searchClient = algoliasearch(
-  'GJQPAYENIF',
-  '75c28fc084a80e1129d427d470cf41a3'
-)
-
-const indexPrefix = ENV === 'DEV' ? 'dev-' : ''
-const searchIndexName = ENV === 'DEV' ? 'dev-contracts' : 'contractsIndex'
+import {
+  getIndexName,
+  searchClient,
+  searchIndexName,
+} from 'web/lib/service/algolia'

 export const SORTS = [
  { label: 'Newest', value: 'newest' },
@ -154,7 +150,7 @@ export function ContractSearch(props: {
    if (freshQuery || requestedPage < state.numPages) {
      const index = query
        ? searchIndex
-        : searchClient.initIndex(`${indexPrefix}contracts-${sort}`)
+        : searchClient.initIndex(getIndexName(sort))
      const numericFilters = query
        ? []
        : [
--- a/web/components/contract/contract-details.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract/contract-details.tsx
@ -309,7 +309,7 @@ export function ExtraMobileContractDetails(props: {
          <Tooltip
            text={`${formatMoney(
              volume
-            )} bet - ${uniqueBettors} unique predictors`}
+            )} bet - ${uniqueBettors} unique traders`}
          >
            {volumeTranslation}
          </Tooltip>
--- a/web/components/contract/contract-leaderboard.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract/contract-leaderboard.tsx
@ -106,7 +106,6 @@ export function ContractTopTrades(props: {
              contract={contract}
              comment={commentsById[topCommentId]}
              tips={tips[topCommentId]}
-              betsBySameUser={[betsById[topCommentId]]}
            />
          </div>
          <Spacer h={16} />
--- a/web/components/contract/contract-tabs.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract/contract-tabs.tsx
@ -75,7 +75,9 @@ export function ContractTabs(props: {
      <>
        <FreeResponseContractCommentsActivity
          contract={contract}
-          bets={visibleBets}
+          betsByCurrentUser={
+            user ? visibleBets.filter((b) => b.userId === user.id) : []
+          }
          comments={comments}
          tips={tips}
          user={user}
@ -85,7 +87,9 @@ export function ContractTabs(props: {
          <div className={'mb-4 w-full border-b border-gray-200'} />
          <ContractCommentsActivity
            contract={contract}
-            bets={generalBets}
+            betsByCurrentUser={
+              user ? generalBets.filter((b) => b.userId === user.id) : []
+            }
            comments={generalComments}
            tips={tips}
            user={user}
@ -95,7 +99,9 @@ export function ContractTabs(props: {
    ) : (
      <ContractCommentsActivity
        contract={contract}
-        bets={visibleBets}
+        betsByCurrentUser={
+          user ? visibleBets.filter((b) => b.userId === user.id) : []
+        }
        comments={comments}
        tips={tips}
        user={user}
--- a/web/components/contract/prob-change-table.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract/prob-change-table.tsx
@ -19,19 +19,21 @@ export function ProbChangeTable(props: {

  const { positiveChanges, negativeChanges } = changes

-  const threshold = 0.075
-  const countOverThreshold = Math.max(
-    positiveChanges.findIndex((c) => c.probChanges.day < threshold) + 1,
-    negativeChanges.findIndex((c) => c.probChanges.day > -threshold) + 1
+  const threshold = 0.01
+  const positiveAboveThreshold = positiveChanges.filter(
+    (c) => c.probChanges.day > threshold
  )
-  const maxRows = Math.min(positiveChanges.length, negativeChanges.length)
-  const rows = Math.min(
-    full ? Infinity : 3,
-    Math.min(maxRows, countOverThreshold)
+  const negativeAboveThreshold = negativeChanges.filter(
+    (c) => c.probChanges.day < threshold
  )
+  const maxRows = Math.min(
+    positiveAboveThreshold.length,
+    negativeAboveThreshold.length
+  )
+  const rows = full ? maxRows : Math.min(3, maxRows)

-  const filteredPositiveChanges = positiveChanges.slice(0, rows)
-  const filteredNegativeChanges = negativeChanges.slice(0, rows)
+  const filteredPositiveChanges = positiveAboveThreshold.slice(0, rows)
+  const filteredNegativeChanges = negativeAboveThreshold.slice(0, rows)

  if (rows === 0) return <div className="px-4 text-gray-500">None</div>

@ -54,14 +56,14 @@ export function ProbChangeTable(props: {
 function ProbChangeRow(props: { contract: CPMMContract }) {
  const { contract } = props
  return (
-    <Row className="items-center hover:bg-gray-100">
-      <ProbChange className="p-4 text-right text-xl" contract={contract} />
+    <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-4 hover:bg-gray-100">
      <SiteLink
-        className="p-4 pl-2 font-semibold text-indigo-700"
+        className="p-4 pr-0 font-semibold text-indigo-700"
        href={contractPath(contract)}
      >
        <span className="line-clamp-2">{contract.question}</span>
      </SiteLink>
+      <ProbChange className="py-2 pr-4 text-xl" contract={contract} />
    </Row>
  )
 }
@ -72,19 +74,20 @@ export function ProbChange(props: {
 }) {
  const { contract, className } = props
  const {
+    prob,
    probChanges: { day: change },
  } = contract

-  const color =
-    change > 0
-      ? 'text-green-500'
-      : change < 0
-      ? 'text-red-500'
-      : 'text-gray-600'
+  const color = change >= 0 ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-red-500'

-  const str =
-    change === 0
-      ? '+0%'
-      : `${change > 0 ? '+' : '-'}${formatPercent(Math.abs(change))}`
-  return <div className={clsx(className, color)}>{str}</div>
+  return (
+    <Col className={clsx('flex flex-col items-end', className)}>
+      <div className="mb-0.5 mr-0.5 text-2xl">
+        {formatPercent(Math.round(100 * prob) / 100)}
+      </div>
+      <div className={clsx('text-base', color)}>
+        {(change > 0 ? '+' : '') + (change * 100).toFixed(0) + '%'}
+      </div>
+    </Col>
+  )
 }
--- a/web/components/contract/share-modal.tsx
+++ b/web/components/contract/share-modal.tsx
@ -9,7 +9,6 @@ import { Row } from '../layout/row'
 import { ShareEmbedButton } from '../share-embed-button'
 import { Title } from '../title'
 import { TweetButton } from '../tweet-button'
-import { DuplicateContractButton } from '../copy-contract-button'
 import { Button } from '../button'
 import { copyToClipboard } from 'web/lib/util/copy'
 import { track, withTracking } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
@ -21,6 +20,7 @@ import { REFERRAL_AMOUNT } from 'common/economy'
 import { CreateChallengeModal } from 'web/components/challenges/create-challenge-modal'
 import { useState } from 'react'
 import { CHALLENGES_ENABLED } from 'common/challenge'
+import ChallengeIcon from 'web/lib/icons/challenge-icon'

 export function ShareModal(props: {
  contract: Contract
@ -56,8 +56,8 @@ export function ShareModal(props: {
        </p>
        <Button
          size="2xl"
-          color="gradient"
-          className={'flex max-w-xs self-center'}
+          color="indigo"
+          className={'mb-2 flex max-w-xs self-center'}
          onClick={() => {
            copyToClipboard(shareUrl)
            toast.success('Link copied!', {
@ -68,18 +68,26 @@ export function ShareModal(props: {
        >
          {linkIcon} Copy link
        </Button>
-        <Row className={'justify-center'}>or</Row>
+
+        <Row className="z-0 flex-wrap justify-center gap-4 self-center">
+          <TweetButton
+            className="self-start"
+            tweetText={getTweetText(contract, shareUrl)}
+          />
+
+          <ShareEmbedButton contract={contract} />
+
          {showChallenge && (
-          <Button
-            size="2xl"
-            color="gradient"
-            className={'mb-2 flex max-w-xs self-center'}
+            <button
+              className={
+                'btn btn-xs flex-nowrap border-2 !border-indigo-500 !bg-white normal-case text-indigo-500'
+              }
              onClick={withTracking(
                () => setOpenCreateChallengeModal(true),
                'click challenge button'
              )}
            >
-            <span>⚔️ Challenge</span>
+              ️<ChallengeIcon className="mr-1 h-4 w-4" /> Challenge
              <CreateChallengeModal
                isOpen={openCreateChallengeModal}
                setOpen={(open) => {
@ -91,15 +99,8 @@ export function ShareModal(props: {
                user={user}
                contract={contract}
              />
-          </Button>
+            </button>
          )}
-        <Row className="z-0 flex-wrap justify-center gap-4 self-center">
-          <TweetButton
-            className="self-start"
-            tweetText={getTweetText(contract, shareUrl)}
-          />
-          <ShareEmbedButton contract={contract} />
-          <DuplicateContractButton contract={contract} />
        </Row>
      </Col>
    </Modal>
--- a/web/components/feed/contract-activity.tsx
+++ b/web/components/feed/contract-activity.tsx
@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 import { useState } from 'react'
 import { Contract, FreeResponseContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { ContractComment } from 'common/comment'
-import { Answer } from 'common/answer'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import { getOutcomeProbability } from 'common/calculate'
 import { Pagination } from 'web/components/pagination'
@ -12,7 +11,7 @@ import { FeedCommentThread, ContractCommentInput } from './feed-comments'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { CommentTipMap } from 'web/hooks/use-tip-txns'
 import { LiquidityProvision } from 'common/liquidity-provision'
-import { groupBy, sortBy, uniq } from 'lodash'
+import { groupBy, sortBy } from 'lodash'
 import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col'

 export function ContractBetsActivity(props: {
@ -73,13 +72,12 @@ export function ContractBetsActivity(props: {

 export function ContractCommentsActivity(props: {
  contract: Contract
-  bets: Bet[]
+  betsByCurrentUser: Bet[]
  comments: ContractComment[]
  tips: CommentTipMap
  user: User | null | undefined
 }) {
-  const { bets, contract, comments, user, tips } = props
-  const betsByUserId = groupBy(bets, (bet) => bet.userId)
+  const { betsByCurrentUser, contract, comments, user, tips } = props
  const commentsByUserId = groupBy(comments, (c) => c.userId)
  const commentsByParentId = groupBy(comments, (c) => c.replyToCommentId ?? '_')
  const topLevelComments = sortBy(
@ -92,7 +90,7 @@ export function ContractCommentsActivity(props: {
      <ContractCommentInput
        className="mb-5"
        contract={contract}
-        betsByCurrentUser={(user && betsByUserId[user.id]) ?? []}
+        betsByCurrentUser={betsByCurrentUser}
        commentsByCurrentUser={(user && commentsByUserId[user.id]) ?? []}
      />
      {topLevelComments.map((parent) => (
@ -106,8 +104,7 @@ export function ContractCommentsActivity(props: {
            (c) => c.createdTime
          )}
          tips={tips}
-          bets={bets}
-          betsByUserId={betsByUserId}
+          betsByCurrentUser={betsByCurrentUser}
          commentsByUserId={commentsByUserId}
        />
      ))}
@ -117,32 +114,26 @@ export function ContractCommentsActivity(props: {

 export function FreeResponseContractCommentsActivity(props: {
  contract: FreeResponseContract
-  bets: Bet[]
+  betsByCurrentUser: Bet[]
  comments: ContractComment[]
  tips: CommentTipMap
  user: User | null | undefined
 }) {
-  const { bets, contract, comments, user, tips } = props
+  const { betsByCurrentUser, contract, comments, user, tips } = props

-  let outcomes = uniq(bets.map((bet) => bet.outcome))
-  outcomes = sortBy(
-    outcomes,
-    (outcome) => -getOutcomeProbability(contract, outcome)
+  const sortedAnswers = sortBy(
+    contract.answers,
+    (answer) => -getOutcomeProbability(contract, answer.number.toString())
  )
-
-  const answers = outcomes
-    .map((outcome) => {
-      return contract.answers.find((answer) => answer.id === outcome) as Answer
-    })
-    .filter((answer) => answer != null)
-
-  const betsByUserId = groupBy(bets, (bet) => bet.userId)
  const commentsByUserId = groupBy(comments, (c) => c.userId)
-  const commentsByOutcome = groupBy(comments, (c) => c.answerOutcome ?? '_')
+  const commentsByOutcome = groupBy(
+    comments,
+    (c) => c.answerOutcome ?? c.betOutcome ?? '_'
+  )

  return (
    <>
-      {answers.map((answer) => (
+      {sortedAnswers.map((answer) => (
        <div key={answer.id} className={'relative pb-4'}>
          <span
            className="absolute top-5 left-5 -ml-px h-[calc(100%-2rem)] w-0.5 bg-gray-200"
@ -157,7 +148,7 @@ export function FreeResponseContractCommentsActivity(props: {
              (c) => c.createdTime
            )}
            tips={tips}
-            betsByUserId={betsByUserId}
+            betsByCurrentUser={betsByCurrentUser}
            commentsByUserId={commentsByUserId}
          />
        </div>
--- a/web/components/feed/feed-answer-comment-group.tsx
+++ b/web/components/feed/feed-answer-comment-group.tsx
@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ export function FeedAnswerCommentGroup(props: {
  answer: Answer
  answerComments: ContractComment[]
  tips: CommentTipMap
-  betsByUserId: Dictionary<Bet[]>
+  betsByCurrentUser: Bet[]
  commentsByUserId: Dictionary<ContractComment[]>
 }) {
  const {
@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ export function FeedAnswerCommentGroup(props: {
    contract,
    answerComments,
    tips,
-    betsByUserId,
+    betsByCurrentUser,
    commentsByUserId,
    user,
  } = props
@ -48,7 +48,6 @@ export function FeedAnswerCommentGroup(props: {
  const router = useRouter()

  const answerElementId = `answer-${answer.id}`
-  const betsByCurrentUser = (user && betsByUserId[user.id]) ?? []
  const commentsByCurrentUser = (user && commentsByUserId[user.id]) ?? []
  const isFreeResponseContractPage = !!commentsByCurrentUser
  const mostRecentCommentableBet = getMostRecentCommentableBet(
@ -166,7 +165,6 @@ export function FeedAnswerCommentGroup(props: {
            contract={contract}
            comment={comment}
            tips={tips[comment.id]}
-            betsBySameUser={betsByUserId[comment.userId] ?? []}
            onReplyClick={scrollAndOpenReplyInput}
          />
        ))}
--- a/web/components/feed/feed-comments.tsx
+++ b/web/components/feed/feed-comments.tsx
@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import { ContractComment } from 'common/comment'
-import { PRESENT_BET, User } from 'common/user'
+import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { Contract } from 'common/contract'
 import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
-import { minBy, maxBy, partition, sumBy, Dictionary } from 'lodash'
+import { Dictionary } from 'lodash'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
 import { useRouter } from 'next/router'
@ -29,8 +29,7 @@ export function FeedCommentThread(props: {
  threadComments: ContractComment[]
  tips: CommentTipMap
  parentComment: ContractComment
-  bets: Bet[]
-  betsByUserId: Dictionary<Bet[]>
+  betsByCurrentUser: Bet[]
  commentsByUserId: Dictionary<ContractComment[]>
 }) {
  const {
@ -38,8 +37,7 @@ export function FeedCommentThread(props: {
    contract,
    threadComments,
    commentsByUserId,
-    bets,
-    betsByUserId,
+    betsByCurrentUser,
    tips,
    parentComment,
  } = props
@ -64,17 +62,7 @@ export function FeedCommentThread(props: {
          contract={contract}
          comment={comment}
          tips={tips[comment.id]}
-          betsBySameUser={betsByUserId[comment.userId] ?? []}
          onReplyClick={scrollAndOpenReplyInput}
-          probAtCreatedTime={
-            contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
-              ? minBy(bets, (bet) => {
-                  return bet.createdTime < comment.createdTime
-                    ? comment.createdTime - bet.createdTime
-                    : comment.createdTime
-                })?.probAfter
-              : undefined
-          }
        />
      ))}
      {showReply && (
@ -85,7 +73,7 @@ export function FeedCommentThread(props: {
          />
          <ContractCommentInput
            contract={contract}
-            betsByCurrentUser={(user && betsByUserId[user.id]) ?? []}
+            betsByCurrentUser={(user && betsByCurrentUser) ?? []}
            commentsByCurrentUser={(user && commentsByUserId[user.id]) ?? []}
            parentCommentId={parentComment.id}
            replyToUser={replyTo}
@ -104,22 +92,21 @@ export function FeedComment(props: {
  contract: Contract
  comment: ContractComment
  tips: CommentTips
-  betsBySameUser: Bet[]
  indent?: boolean
-  probAtCreatedTime?: number
  onReplyClick?: (comment: ContractComment) => void
 }) {
+  const { contract, comment, tips, indent, onReplyClick } = props
  const {
-    contract,
-    comment,
-    tips,
-    betsBySameUser,
-    indent,
-    probAtCreatedTime,
-    onReplyClick,
-  } = props
-  const { text, content, userUsername, userName, userAvatarUrl, createdTime } =
-    comment
+    text,
+    content,
+    userUsername,
+    userName,
+    userAvatarUrl,
+    commenterPositionProb,
+    commenterPositionShares,
+    commenterPositionOutcome,
+    createdTime,
+  } = comment
  const betOutcome = comment.betOutcome
  let bought: string | undefined
  let money: string | undefined
@ -136,13 +123,6 @@ export function FeedComment(props: {
    }
  }, [comment.id, router.asPath])

-  // Only calculated if they don't have a matching bet
-  const { userPosition, outcome } = getBettorsLargestPositionBeforeTime(
-    contract,
-    comment.createdTime,
-    comment.betId ? [] : betsBySameUser
-  )
-
  return (
    <Row
      id={comment.id}
@ -167,14 +147,17 @@ export function FeedComment(props: {
            username={userUsername}
            name={userName}
          />{' '}
-          {!comment.betId != null &&
-            userPosition > 0 &&
+          {comment.betId == null &&
+            commenterPositionProb != null &&
+            commenterPositionOutcome != null &&
+            commenterPositionShares != null &&
+            commenterPositionShares > 0 &&
            contract.outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC' && (
              <>
                {'is '}
                <CommentStatus
-                  prob={probAtCreatedTime}
-                  outcome={outcome}
+                  prob={commenterPositionProb}
+                  outcome={commenterPositionOutcome}
                  contract={contract}
                />
              </>
@ -255,7 +238,7 @@ function CommentStatus(props: {
  const { contract, outcome, prob } = props
  return (
    <>
-      {` ${PRESENT_BET}ing `}
+      {` predicting `}
      <OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} contract={contract} truncate="short" />
      {prob && ' at ' + Math.round(prob * 100) + '%'}
    </>
@ -310,56 +293,6 @@ export function ContractCommentInput(props: {
  )
 }

-function getBettorsLargestPositionBeforeTime(
-  contract: Contract,
-  createdTime: number,
-  bets: Bet[]
-) {
-  let yesFloorShares = 0,
-    yesShares = 0,
-    noShares = 0,
-    noFloorShares = 0
-
-  const previousBets = bets.filter(
-    (prevBet) => prevBet.createdTime < createdTime && !prevBet.isAnte
-  )
-
-  if (contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
-    const answerCounts: { [outcome: string]: number } = {}
-    for (const bet of previousBets) {
-      if (bet.outcome) {
-        if (!answerCounts[bet.outcome]) {
-          answerCounts[bet.outcome] = bet.amount
-        } else {
-          answerCounts[bet.outcome] += bet.amount
-        }
-      }
-    }
-    const majorityAnswer =
-      maxBy(Object.keys(answerCounts), (outcome) => answerCounts[outcome]) ?? ''
-    return {
-      userPosition: answerCounts[majorityAnswer] || 0,
-      outcome: majorityAnswer,
-    }
-  }
-  if (bets.length === 0) {
-    return { userPosition: 0, outcome: '' }
-  }
-
-  const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(
-    previousBets ?? [],
-    (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES'
-  )
-  yesShares = sumBy(yesBets, (bet) => bet.shares)
-  noShares = sumBy(noBets, (bet) => bet.shares)
-  yesFloorShares = Math.floor(yesShares)
-  noFloorShares = Math.floor(noShares)
-
-  const userPosition = yesFloorShares || noFloorShares
-  const outcome = yesFloorShares > noFloorShares ? 'YES' : 'NO'
-  return { userPosition, outcome }
-}
-
 function canCommentOnBet(bet: Bet, user?: User | null) {
  const { userId, createdTime, isRedemption } = bet
  const isSelf = user?.id === userId
--- a/web/components/groups/create-group-button.tsx
+++ b/web/components/groups/create-group-button.tsx
@ -6,7 +6,6 @@ import { ConfirmationButton } from '../confirmation-button'
 import { Col } from '../layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from '../layout/spacer'
 import { Title } from '../title'
-import { FilterSelectUsers } from 'web/components/filter-select-users'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { MAX_GROUP_NAME_LENGTH } from 'common/group'
 import { createGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/api'
@ -17,35 +16,30 @@ export function CreateGroupButton(props: {
  label?: string
  onOpenStateChange?: (isOpen: boolean) => void
  goToGroupOnSubmit?: boolean
+  addGroupIdParamOnSubmit?: boolean
  icon?: JSX.Element
 }) {
-  const { user, className, label, onOpenStateChange, goToGroupOnSubmit, icon } =
-    props
-  const [defaultName, setDefaultName] = useState(`${user.name}'s group`)
+  const {
+    user,
+    className,
+    label,
+    onOpenStateChange,
+    goToGroupOnSubmit,
+    addGroupIdParamOnSubmit,
+    icon,
+  } = props
+
  const [name, setName] = useState('')
-  const [memberUsers, setMemberUsers] = useState<User[]>([])
  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
  const [errorText, setErrorText] = useState('')

  const router = useRouter()

-  function updateMemberUsers(users: User[]) {
-    const usersFirstNames = users.map((user) => user.name.split(' ')[0])
-    const postFix =
-      usersFirstNames.length > 3 ? ` & ${usersFirstNames.length - 3} more` : ''
-    const newName = `${user.name.split(' ')[0]}${
-      users.length > 0 ? ', ' + usersFirstNames.slice(0, 3).join(', ') : ''
-    }${postFix}'s group`
-    setDefaultName(newName)
-    setMemberUsers(users)
-  }
-
  const onSubmit = async () => {
    setIsSubmitting(true)
-    const groupName = name !== '' ? name : defaultName
    const newGroup = {
-      name: groupName,
-      memberIds: memberUsers.map((user) => user.id),
+      name,
+      memberIds: [],
      anyoneCanJoin: true,
    }
    const result = await createGroup(newGroup).catch((e) => {
@ -62,12 +56,17 @@ export function CreateGroupButton(props: {
    console.log(result.details)

    if (result.group) {
-      updateMemberUsers([])
      if (goToGroupOnSubmit)
        router.push(groupPath(result.group.slug)).catch((e) => {
          console.log(e)
          setErrorText(e.message)
        })
+      else if (addGroupIdParamOnSubmit) {
+        router.replace({
+          pathname: router.pathname,
+          query: { ...router.query, groupId: result.group.id },
+        })
+      }
      setIsSubmitting(false)
      return true
    } else {
@ -99,41 +98,26 @@ export function CreateGroupButton(props: {
      onSubmitWithSuccess={onSubmit}
      onOpenChanged={(isOpen) => {
        onOpenStateChange?.(isOpen)
-        updateMemberUsers([])
        setName('')
      }}
    >
      <Title className="!my-0" text="Create a group" />

      <Col className="gap-1 text-gray-500">
-        <div>You can add markets and members to your group after creation.</div>
+        <div>You can add markets to your group after creation.</div>
      </Col>
-      <div className={'text-error'}>{errorText}</div>
+      {errorText && <div className={'text-error'}>{errorText}</div>}

-      <div>
      <div className="form-control w-full">
-          <label className="label">
-            <span className="mb-0">Add members (optional)</span>
-          </label>
-          <FilterSelectUsers
-            setSelectedUsers={updateMemberUsers}
-            selectedUsers={memberUsers}
-            ignoreUserIds={[user.id]}
-          />
-        </div>
-        <div className="form-control w-full">
-          <label className="label">
-            <span className="mt-1">Group name (optional)</span>
-          </label>
+        <label className="mb-2 ml-1 mt-0">Group name</label>
        <input
-            placeholder={defaultName}
+          placeholder={'Your group name'}
          className="input input-bordered resize-none"
          disabled={isSubmitting}
          value={name}
          maxLength={MAX_GROUP_NAME_LENGTH}
          onChange={(e) => setName(e.target.value || '')}
        />
-        </div>

        <Spacer h={4} />
      </div>
--- a/web/components/groups/edit-group-button.tsx
+++ b/web/components/groups/edit-group-button.tsx
@ -16,7 +16,6 @@ export function EditGroupButton(props: { group: Group; className?: string }) {
  const router = useRouter()

  const [name, setName] = useState(group.name)
-  const [about, setAbout] = useState(group.about ?? '')
  const [open, setOpen] = useState(false)
  const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
  const [addMemberUsers, setAddMemberUsers] = useState<User[]>([])
@ -26,8 +25,7 @@ export function EditGroupButton(props: { group: Group; className?: string }) {
    setOpen(newOpen)
  }

-  const saveDisabled =
-    name === group.name && about === group.about && addMemberUsers.length === 0
+  const saveDisabled = name === group.name && addMemberUsers.length === 0

  const onSubmit = async () => {
    setIsSubmitting(true)
@ -66,23 +64,6 @@ export function EditGroupButton(props: { group: Group; className?: string }) {

          <Spacer h={4} />

-          <div className="form-control w-full">
-            <label className="label">
-              <span className="mb-1">About</span>
-            </label>
-
-            <input
-              placeholder="Short description (140 characters max)"
-              className="input input-bordered resize-none"
-              disabled={isSubmitting}
-              value={about}
-              maxLength={140}
-              onChange={(e) => setAbout(e.target.value || '')}
-            />
-          </div>
-
-          <Spacer h={4} />
-
          <div className="form-control w-full">
            <label className="label">
              <span className="mb-0">Add members</span>
--- a/web/components/groups/group-selector.tsx
+++ b/web/components/groups/group-selector.tsx
@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ export function GroupSelector(props: {
                        )}
                        <span
                          className={clsx(
-                            'ml-3 mt-1 block flex flex-row justify-between',
+                            'ml-3 mt-1 flex flex-row justify-between',
                            selected && 'font-semibold'
                          )}
                        >
@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ export function GroupSelector(props: {
                    'w-full justify-start rounded-none border-0 bg-white pl-2 font-normal text-gray-900 hover:bg-indigo-500 hover:text-white'
                  }
                  label={'Create a new Group'}
-                  goToGroupOnSubmit={false}
+                  addGroupIdParamOnSubmit
                  icon={
                    <PlusCircleIcon className="text-primary mr-2 h-5 w-5" />
                  }
--- a/web/components/nav/bottom-nav-bar.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav/bottom-nav-bar.tsx
@ -8,7 +8,8 @@ import {
 } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
 import { Transition, Dialog } from '@headlessui/react'
 import { useState, Fragment } from 'react'
-import Sidebar, { Item } from './sidebar'
+import Sidebar from './sidebar'
+import { Item } from './sidebar-item'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
 import { Avatar } from '../avatar'
--- a/web/components/nav/group-nav-bar.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav/group-nav-bar.tsx
@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { ClipboardIcon, HomeIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
-import { Item } from './sidebar'
+import { Item } from './sidebar-item'

 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { trackCallback } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ export function GroupNavBar(props: {
  const user = useUser()

  return (
-    <nav className="fixed inset-x-0 bottom-0 z-20 flex justify-between border-t-2 bg-white text-xs text-gray-700 lg:hidden">
+    <nav className="z-20 flex justify-between border-t-2 bg-white text-xs text-gray-700 lg:hidden">
      {mobileGroupNavigation.map((item) => (
        <NavBarItem
          key={item.name}
--- a/web/components/nav/group-sidebar.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav/group-sidebar.tsx
@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import React from 'react'
 import TrophyIcon from 'web/lib/icons/trophy-icon'
 import { SignInButton } from '../sign-in-button'
 import NotificationsIcon from '../notifications-icon'
-import { SidebarItem } from './sidebar'
+import { SidebarItem } from './sidebar-item'
 import { buildArray } from 'common/util/array'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { Row } from '../layout/row'
--- a/web/components/nav/more-button.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav/more-button.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+import { DotsHorizontalIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
+
+export function MoreButton() {
+  return <SidebarButton text={'More'} icon={DotsHorizontalIcon} />
+}
+
+function SidebarButton(props: {
+  text: string
+  icon: React.ComponentType<{ className?: string }>
+  children?: React.ReactNode
+}) {
+  const { text, children } = props
+  return (
+    <a className="group flex items-center rounded-md px-3 py-2 text-sm font-medium text-gray-600 hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-gray-100">
+      <props.icon
+        className="-ml-1 mr-3 h-6 w-6 flex-shrink-0 text-gray-400 group-hover:text-gray-500"
+        aria-hidden="true"
+      />
+      <span className="truncate">{text}</span>
+      {children}
+    </a>
+  )
+}
--- a/web/components/nav/sidebar-item.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav/sidebar-item.tsx
@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+import React from 'react'
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+import Link from 'next/link'
+
+import { trackCallback } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
+
+export type Item = {
+  name: string
+  trackingEventName?: string
+  href?: string
+  key?: string
+  icon?: React.ComponentType<{ className?: string }>
+}
+
+export function SidebarItem(props: {
+  item: Item
+  currentPage: string
+  onClick?: (key: string) => void
+}) {
+  const { item, currentPage, onClick } = props
+  const isCurrentPage =
+    item.href != null ? item.href === currentPage : item.key === currentPage
+
+  const sidebarItem = (
+    <a
+      onClick={trackCallback('sidebar: ' + item.name)}
+      className={clsx(
+        isCurrentPage
+          ? 'bg-gray-200 text-gray-900'
+          : 'text-gray-600 hover:bg-gray-100',
+        'group flex items-center rounded-md px-3 py-2 text-sm font-medium'
+      )}
+      aria-current={item.href == currentPage ? 'page' : undefined}
+    >
+      {item.icon && (
+        <item.icon
+          className={clsx(
+            isCurrentPage
+              ? 'text-gray-500'
+              : 'text-gray-400 group-hover:text-gray-500',
+            '-ml-1 mr-3 h-6 w-6 flex-shrink-0'
+          )}
+          aria-hidden="true"
+        />
+      )}
+      <span className="truncate">{item.name}</span>
+    </a>
+  )
+
+  if (item.href) {
+    return (
+      <Link href={item.href} key={item.name}>
+        {sidebarItem}
+      </Link>
+    )
+  } else {
+    return onClick ? (
+      <button onClick={() => onClick(item.key ?? '#')}>{sidebarItem}</button>
+    ) : (
+      <> </>
+    )
+  }
+}
--- a/web/components/nav/sidebar.tsx
+++ b/web/components/nav/sidebar.tsx
@ -1,29 +1,93 @@
+import React from 'react'
 import {
  HomeIcon,
  SearchIcon,
  BookOpenIcon,
-  DotsHorizontalIcon,
  CashIcon,
  HeartIcon,
  ChatIcon,
+  ChartBarIcon,
 } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
-import Link from 'next/link'
 import Router, { useRouter } from 'next/router'
+
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { firebaseLogout, User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import { ManifoldLogo } from './manifold-logo'
 import { MenuButton, MenuItem } from './menu'
 import { ProfileSummary } from './profile-menu'
 import NotificationsIcon from 'web/components/notifications-icon'
-import React from 'react'
 import { IS_PRIVATE_MANIFOLD } from 'common/envs/constants'
 import { CreateQuestionButton } from 'web/components/create-question-button'
-import { trackCallback, withTracking } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
+import { withTracking } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
 import { CHALLENGES_ENABLED } from 'common/challenge'
 import { buildArray } from 'common/util/array'
 import TrophyIcon from 'web/lib/icons/trophy-icon'
 import { SignInButton } from '../sign-in-button'
+import { SidebarItem } from './sidebar-item'
+import { MoreButton } from './more-button'
+
+export default function Sidebar(props: { className?: string }) {
+  const { className } = props
+  const router = useRouter()
+  const currentPage = router.pathname
+
+  const user = useUser()
+
+  const desktopNavOptions = !user
+    ? signedOutDesktopNavigation
+    : getDesktopNavigation()
+
+  const mobileNavOptions = !user
+    ? signedOutMobileNavigation
+    : signedInMobileNavigation
+
+  const createMarketButton = user && !user.isBannedFromPosting && (
+    <CreateQuestionButton />
+  )
+
+  return (
+    <nav
+      aria-label="Sidebar"
+      className={clsx('flex max-h-[100vh] flex-col', className)}
+    >
+      <ManifoldLogo className="py-6" twoLine />
+
+      {!user && <SignInButton className="mb-4" />}
+
+      {user && <ProfileSummary user={user} />}
+
+      {/* Mobile navigation */}
+      <div className="flex min-h-0 shrink flex-col gap-1 lg:hidden">
+        {mobileNavOptions.map((item) => (
+          <SidebarItem key={item.href} item={item} currentPage={currentPage} />
+        ))}
+
+        {user && (
+          <MenuButton
+            menuItems={getMoreMobileNav()}
+            buttonContent={<MoreButton />}
+          />
+        )}
+
+        {createMarketButton}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Desktop navigation */}
+      <div className="hidden min-h-0 shrink flex-col items-stretch gap-1 lg:flex ">
+        {desktopNavOptions.map((item) => (
+          <SidebarItem key={item.href} item={item} currentPage={currentPage} />
+        ))}
+        <MenuButton
+          menuItems={getMoreDesktopNavigation(user)}
+          buttonContent={<MoreButton />}
+        />
+
+        {createMarketButton}
+      </div>
+    </nav>
+  )
+}

 const logout = async () => {
  // log out, and then reload the page, in case SSR wants to boot them out
@ -32,7 +96,7 @@ const logout = async () => {
  await Router.replace(Router.asPath)
 }

-function getNavigation() {
+function getDesktopNavigation() {
  return [
    { name: 'Home', href: '/home', icon: HomeIcon },
    { name: 'Search', href: '/search', icon: SearchIcon },
@ -51,10 +115,10 @@ function getNavigation() {
  ]
 }

-function getMoreNavigation(user?: User | null) {
+function getMoreDesktopNavigation(user?: User | null) {
  if (IS_PRIVATE_MANIFOLD) {
    return [
-      { name: 'Leaderboards', href: '/leaderboards' },
+      { name: 'Leaderboards', href: '/leaderboards', icon: ChartBarIcon },
      {
        name: 'Sign out',
        href: '#',
@ -99,7 +163,7 @@ function getMoreNavigation(user?: User | null) {
  )
 }

-const signedOutNavigation = [
+const signedOutDesktopNavigation = [
  { name: 'Home', href: '/', icon: HomeIcon },
  { name: 'Explore', href: '/search', icon: SearchIcon },
  {
@ -117,11 +181,14 @@ const signedOutMobileNavigation = [
  },
  { name: 'Charity', href: '/charity', icon: HeartIcon },
  { name: 'Tournaments', href: '/tournaments', icon: TrophyIcon },
+  { name: 'Leaderboards', href: '/leaderboards', icon: ChartBarIcon },
  { name: 'Discord', href: 'https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh', icon: ChatIcon },
 ]

 const signedInMobileNavigation = [
+  { name: 'Search', href: '/search', icon: SearchIcon },
  { name: 'Tournaments', href: '/tournaments', icon: TrophyIcon },
+  { name: 'Leaderboards', href: '/leaderboards', icon: ChartBarIcon },
  ...(IS_PRIVATE_MANIFOLD
    ? []
    : [{ name: 'Get M$', href: '/add-funds', icon: CashIcon }]),
@ -145,7 +212,6 @@ function getMoreMobileNav() {
    [
      { name: 'Groups', href: '/groups' },
      { name: 'Referrals', href: '/referrals' },
-      { name: 'Leaderboards', href: '/leaderboards' },
      { name: 'Charity', href: '/charity' },
      { name: 'Send M$', href: '/links' },
      { name: 'Discord', href: 'https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh' },
@ -153,136 +219,3 @@ function getMoreMobileNav() {
    signOut
  )
 }
-
-export type Item = {
-  name: string
-  trackingEventName?: string
-  href?: string
-  key?: string
-  icon?: React.ComponentType<{ className?: string }>
-}
-
-export function SidebarItem(props: {
-  item: Item
-  currentPage: string
-  onClick?: (key: string) => void
-}) {
-  const { item, currentPage, onClick } = props
-  const isCurrentPage =
-    item.href != null ? item.href === currentPage : item.key === currentPage
-
-  const sidebarItem = (
-    <a
-      onClick={trackCallback('sidebar: ' + item.name)}
-      className={clsx(
-        isCurrentPage
-          ? 'bg-gray-200 text-gray-900'
-          : 'text-gray-600 hover:bg-gray-100',
-        'group flex items-center rounded-md px-3 py-2 text-sm font-medium'
-      )}
-      aria-current={item.href == currentPage ? 'page' : undefined}
-    >
-      {item.icon && (
-        <item.icon
-          className={clsx(
-            isCurrentPage
-              ? 'text-gray-500'
-              : 'text-gray-400 group-hover:text-gray-500',
-            '-ml-1 mr-3 h-6 w-6 flex-shrink-0'
-          )}
-          aria-hidden="true"
-        />
-      )}
-      <span className="truncate">{item.name}</span>
-    </a>
-  )
-
-  if (item.href) {
-    return (
-      <Link href={item.href} key={item.name}>
-        {sidebarItem}
-      </Link>
-    )
-  } else {
-    return onClick ? (
-      <button onClick={() => onClick(item.key ?? '#')}>{sidebarItem}</button>
-    ) : (
-      <> </>
-    )
-  }
-}
-
-function SidebarButton(props: {
-  text: string
-  icon: React.ComponentType<{ className?: string }>
-  children?: React.ReactNode
-}) {
-  const { text, children } = props
-  return (
-    <a className="group flex items-center rounded-md px-3 py-2 text-sm font-medium text-gray-600 hover:cursor-pointer hover:bg-gray-100">
-      <props.icon
-        className="-ml-1 mr-3 h-6 w-6 flex-shrink-0 text-gray-400 group-hover:text-gray-500"
-        aria-hidden="true"
-      />
-      <span className="truncate">{text}</span>
-      {children}
-    </a>
-  )
-}
-
-function MoreButton() {
-  return <SidebarButton text={'More'} icon={DotsHorizontalIcon} />
-}
-
-export default function Sidebar(props: { className?: string }) {
-  const { className } = props
-  const router = useRouter()
-  const currentPage = router.pathname
-
-  const user = useUser()
-
-  const navigationOptions = !user ? signedOutNavigation : getNavigation()
-  const mobileNavigationOptions = !user
-    ? signedOutMobileNavigation
-    : signedInMobileNavigation
-
-  return (
-    <nav
-      aria-label="Sidebar"
-      className={clsx('flex max-h-[100vh] flex-col', className)}
-    >
-      <ManifoldLogo className="py-6" twoLine />
-
-      {!user && <SignInButton className="mb-4" />}
-
-      {user && <ProfileSummary user={user} />}
-
-      {/* Mobile navigation */}
-      <div className="flex min-h-0 shrink flex-col gap-1 lg:hidden">
-        {mobileNavigationOptions.map((item) => (
-          <SidebarItem key={item.href} item={item} currentPage={currentPage} />
-        ))}
-
-        {user && (
-          <MenuButton
-            menuItems={getMoreMobileNav()}
-            buttonContent={<MoreButton />}
-          />
-        )}
-      </div>
-
-      {/* Desktop navigation */}
-      <div className="hidden min-h-0 shrink flex-col items-stretch gap-1 lg:flex ">
-        {navigationOptions.map((item) => (
-          <SidebarItem key={item.href} item={item} currentPage={currentPage} />
-        ))}
-        <MenuButton
-          menuItems={getMoreNavigation(user)}
-          buttonContent={<MoreButton />}
-        />
-
-        {user && !user.isBannedFromPosting && <CreateQuestionButton />}
-      </div>
-    </nav>
-  )
-}
--- a/web/components/notification-settings.tsx
+++ b/web/components/notification-settings.tsx
@ -276,6 +276,7 @@ export function NotificationSettings(props: {
        <Col className={clsx(expanded ? 'block' : 'hidden', 'gap-2 p-2')}>
          {subscriptionTypes.map((subType) => (
            <NotificationSettingLine
+              key={subType}
              subscriptionTypeKey={subType as notification_preference}
              destinations={getUsersSavedPreference(
                subType as notification_preference
--- a/web/components/onboarding/group-selector-dialog.tsx
+++ b/web/components/onboarding/group-selector-dialog.tsx
@ -10,6 +10,8 @@ import { Modal } from 'web/components/layout/modal'
 import { PillButton } from 'web/components/buttons/pill-button'
 import { Button } from 'web/components/button'
 import { Group } from 'common/group'
+import { LoadingIndicator } from '../loading-indicator'
+import { withTracking } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'

 export default function GroupSelectorDialog(props: {
  open: boolean
@ -65,20 +67,26 @@ export default function GroupSelectorDialog(props: {
        </p>

        <div className="scrollbar-hide items-start gap-2 overflow-x-auto">
-          {user &&
+          {!user || displayedGroups.length === 0 ? (
+            <LoadingIndicator spinnerClassName="h-12 w-12" />
+          ) : (
            displayedGroups.map((group) => (
              <PillButton
                selected={memberGroupIds.includes(group.id)}
-                onSelect={() =>
+                onSelect={withTracking(
+                  () =>
                    memberGroupIds.includes(group.id)
                      ? leaveGroup(group, user.id)
-                    : joinGroup(group, user.id)
-                }
+                      : joinGroup(group, user.id),
+                  'toggle group pill',
+                  { group: group.slug }
+                )}
                className="mr-1 mb-2 max-w-[12rem] truncate"
              >
                {group.name}
              </PillButton>
-            ))}
+            ))
+          )}
        </div>
      </Col>
      <Col>
--- a/web/components/share-embed-button.tsx
+++ b/web/components/share-embed-button.tsx
@ -40,14 +40,7 @@ export function ShareEmbedButton(props: { contract: Contract }) {
        track('copy embed code')
      }}
    >
-      <Menu.Button
-        className="btn btn-xs normal-case"
-        style={{
-          backgroundColor: 'white',
-          border: '2px solid #9ca3af',
-          color: '#9ca3af', // text-gray-400
-        }}
-      >
+      <Menu.Button className="btn btn-xs border-2 !border-gray-500 !bg-white normal-case text-gray-500">
        {codeIcon}
        Embed
      </Menu.Button>
--- a/web/hooks/use-group.ts
+++ b/web/hooks/use-group.ts
@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import { Group } from 'common/group'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import {
+  getGroup,
  getMemberGroups,
  GroupMemberDoc,
  groupMembers,
@ -102,6 +103,24 @@ export const useMemberGroupIds = (user: User | null | undefined) => {
  return memberGroupIds
 }

+export function useMemberGroupsSubscription(user: User | null | undefined) {
+  const cachedGroups = useMemberGroups(user?.id) ?? []
+  const [groups, setGroups] = useState(cachedGroups)
+
+  const userId = user?.id
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (userId) {
+      return listenForMemberGroupIds(userId, (groupIds) => {
+        Promise.all(groupIds.map((id) => getGroup(id))).then((groups) =>
+          setGroups(filterDefined(groups))
+        )
+      })
+    }
+  }, [userId])
+
+  return groups
+}
+
 export function useMembers(groupId: string | undefined) {
  const [members, setMembers] = useState<User[]>([])
  useEffect(() => {
--- a/web/hooks/use-prefetch.ts
+++ b/web/hooks/use-prefetch.ts
@ -1,6 +1,5 @@
 import { usePrefetchUserBetContracts } from './use-contracts'
 import { usePrefetchPortfolioHistory } from './use-portfolio-history'
-import { usePrefetchProbChanges } from './use-prob-changes'
 import { usePrefetchUserBets } from './use-user-bets'

 export function usePrefetch(userId: string | undefined) {
@ -9,6 +8,5 @@ export function usePrefetch(userId: string | undefined) {
    usePrefetchUserBets(maybeUserId),
    usePrefetchUserBetContracts(maybeUserId),
    usePrefetchPortfolioHistory(maybeUserId, 'weekly'),
-    usePrefetchProbChanges(userId),
  ])
 }
--- a/web/hooks/use-prob-changes.tsx
+++ b/web/hooks/use-prob-changes.tsx
@ -1,11 +1,45 @@
 import { useFirestoreQueryData } from '@react-query-firebase/firestore'
+import { CPMMContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { MINUTE_MS } from 'common/util/time'
-import { useQueryClient } from 'react-query'
+import { useQuery, useQueryClient } from 'react-query'
 import {
  getProbChangesNegative,
  getProbChangesPositive,
 } from 'web/lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { getValues } from 'web/lib/firebase/utils'
+import { getIndexName, searchClient } from 'web/lib/service/algolia'
+
+export const useProbChangesAlgolia = (userId: string) => {
+  const { data: positiveData } = useQuery(['prob-change-day', userId], () =>
+    searchClient
+      .initIndex(getIndexName('prob-change-day'))
+      .search<CPMMContract>('', {
+        facetFilters: ['uniqueBettorIds:' + userId, 'isResolved:false'],
+      })
+  )
+  const { data: negativeData } = useQuery(
+    ['prob-change-day-ascending', userId],
+    () =>
+      searchClient
+        .initIndex(getIndexName('prob-change-day-ascending'))
+        .search<CPMMContract>('', {
+          facetFilters: ['uniqueBettorIds:' + userId, 'isResolved:false'],
+        })
+  )
+
+  if (!positiveData || !negativeData) {
+    return undefined
+  }
+
+  return {
+    positiveChanges: positiveData.hits
+      .filter((c) => c.probChanges && c.probChanges.day > 0)
+      .filter((c) => c.outcomeType === 'BINARY'),
+    negativeChanges: negativeData.hits
+      .filter((c) => c.probChanges && c.probChanges.day < 0)
+      .filter((c) => c.outcomeType === 'BINARY'),
+  }
+}

 export const useProbChanges = (userId: string) => {
  const { data: positiveChanges } = useFirestoreQueryData(
--- a/web/hooks/use-warn-unsaved-changes.ts
+++ b/web/hooks/use-warn-unsaved-changes.ts
@ -13,7 +13,11 @@ export const useWarnUnsavedChanges = (hasUnsavedChanges: boolean) => {
      return confirmationMessage
    }

-    const beforeRouteHandler = () => {
+    const beforeRouteHandler = (href: string) => {
+      const pathname = href.split('?')[0]
+      // Don't warn if the user is navigating to the same page.
+      if (pathname === location.pathname) return
+
      if (!confirm(confirmationMessage)) {
        Router.events.emit('routeChangeError')
        throw 'Abort route change. Please ignore this error.'
--- a/web/lib/icons/bold-icon.tsx
+++ b/web/lib/icons/bold-icon.tsx
@ -8,9 +8,9 @@ export default function BoldIcon(props: React.SVGProps<SVGSVGElement>) {
      viewBox="0 0 24 24"
      fill="none"
      stroke="currentColor"
-      stroke-width="2"
-      stroke-linecap="round"
-      stroke-linejoin="round"
+      strokeWidth="2"
+      strokeLinecap="round"
+      strokeLinejoin="round"
      {...props}
    >
      <path d="M6 4h8a4 4 0 0 1 4 4 4 4 0 0 1-4 4H6z"></path>
--- a/web/lib/icons/italic-icon.tsx
+++ b/web/lib/icons/italic-icon.tsx
@ -8,9 +8,9 @@ export default function ItalicIcon(props: React.SVGProps<SVGSVGElement>) {
      viewBox="0 0 24 24"
      fill="none"
      stroke="currentColor"
-      stroke-width="2"
-      stroke-linecap="round"
-      stroke-linejoin="round"
+      strokeWidth="2"
+      strokeLinecap="round"
+      strokeLinejoin="round"
      {...props}
    >
      <line x1="19" y1="4" x2="10" y2="4"></line>
--- a/web/lib/icons/link-icon.tsx
+++ b/web/lib/icons/link-icon.tsx
@ -8,9 +8,9 @@ export default function LinkIcon(props: React.SVGProps<SVGSVGElement>) {
      viewBox="0 0 24 24"
      fill="none"
      stroke="currentColor"
-      stroke-width="2"
-      stroke-linecap="round"
-      stroke-linejoin="round"
+      strokeWidth="2"
+      strokeLinecap="round"
+      strokeLinejoin="round"
      {...props}
    >
      <path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path>
--- a/web/lib/service/algolia.ts
+++ b/web/lib/service/algolia.ts
@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+import algoliasearch from 'algoliasearch/lite'
+import { ENV } from 'common/envs/constants'
+
+export const searchClient = algoliasearch(
+  'GJQPAYENIF',
+  '75c28fc084a80e1129d427d470cf41a3'
+)
+
+const indexPrefix = ENV === 'DEV' ? 'dev-' : ''
+export const searchIndexName =
+  ENV === 'DEV' ? 'dev-contracts' : 'contractsIndex'
+
+export const getIndexName = (sort: string) => {
+  return `${indexPrefix}contracts-${sort}`
+}
--- a/web/lib/twitch/link-twitch-account.ts
+++ b/web/lib/twitch/link-twitch-account.ts
@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 import { PrivateUser, User } from 'common/user'
 import { generateNewApiKey } from '../api/api-key'
-
-const TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL = 'https://king-prawn-app-5btyw.ondigitalocean.app' // TODO: Add this to env config appropriately
+import { ENV_CONFIG } from 'common/envs/constants'

 async function postToBot(url: string, body: unknown) {
  const result = await fetch(url, {
@ -21,13 +20,16 @@ export async function initLinkTwitchAccount(
  manifoldUserID: string,
  manifoldUserAPIKey: string
 ): Promise<[string, Promise<{ twitchName: string; controlToken: string }>]> {
-  const response = await postToBot(`${TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL}/api/linkInit`, {
+  const response = await postToBot(
+    `${ENV_CONFIG.twitchBotEndpoint}/api/linkInit`,
+    {
      manifoldID: manifoldUserID,
      apiKey: manifoldUserAPIKey,
      redirectURL: window.location.href,
-  })
+    }
+  )
  const responseFetch = fetch(
-    `${TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL}/api/linkResult?userID=${manifoldUserID}`
+    `${ENV_CONFIG.twitchBotEndpoint}/api/linkResult?userID=${manifoldUserID}`
  )
  return [response.twitchAuthURL, responseFetch.then((r) => r.json())]
 }
@ -50,15 +52,18 @@ export async function updateBotEnabledForUser(
  botEnabled: boolean
 ) {
  if (botEnabled) {
-    return postToBot(`${TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL}/registerchanneltwitch`, {
+    return postToBot(`${ENV_CONFIG.twitchBotEndpoint}/registerchanneltwitch`, {
      apiKey: privateUser.apiKey,
    }).then((r) => {
      if (!r.success) throw new Error(r.message)
    })
  } else {
-    return postToBot(`${TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL}/unregisterchanneltwitch`, {
+    return postToBot(
+      `${ENV_CONFIG.twitchBotEndpoint}/unregisterchanneltwitch`,
+      {
        apiKey: privateUser.apiKey,
-    }).then((r) => {
+      }
+    ).then((r) => {
      if (!r.success) throw new Error(r.message)
    })
  }
@ -66,10 +71,10 @@ export async function updateBotEnabledForUser(

 export function getOverlayURLForUser(privateUser: PrivateUser) {
  const controlToken = privateUser?.twitchInfo?.controlToken
-  return `${TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL}/overlay?t=${controlToken}`
+  return `${ENV_CONFIG.twitchBotEndpoint}/overlay?t=${controlToken}`
 }

 export function getDockURLForUser(privateUser: PrivateUser) {
  const controlToken = privateUser?.twitchInfo?.controlToken
-  return `${TWITCH_BOT_PUBLIC_URL}/dock?t=${controlToken}`
+  return `${ENV_CONFIG.twitchBotEndpoint}/dock?t=${controlToken}`
 }
--- a/web/next.config.js
+++ b/web/next.config.js
@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 const API_DOCS_URL = 'https://docs.manifold.markets/api'

-const ABOUT_PAGE_URL = 'https://docs.manifold.markets/$how-to'
+const ABOUT_PAGE_URL = 'https://help.manifold.markets/'

 /** @type {import('next').NextConfig} */
 module.exports = {
--- a/web/pages/api/v0/revalidate.ts
+++ b/web/pages/api/v0/revalidate.ts
@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+import type { NextApiRequest, NextApiResponse } from 'next'
+import { z } from 'zod'
+import { ValidationError } from './_types'
+import { validate } from './_validate'
+
+const queryParams = z
+  .object({
+    // This secret is stored in both Firebase and Vercel's environment variables, as API_SECRET.
+    apiSecret: z.string(),
+    // Path after domain: e.g. "/JamesGrugett/will-pete-buttigieg-ever-be-us-pres"
+    pathToRevalidate: z.string(),
+  })
+  .strict()
+
+export default async function handler(
+  req: NextApiRequest,
+  res: NextApiResponse
+) {
+  let params: z.infer<typeof queryParams>
+  try {
+    params = validate(queryParams, req.query)
+  } catch (e) {
+    if (e instanceof ValidationError) {
+      return res.status(400).json(e)
+    }
+    console.error(`Unknown error during validation: ${e}`)
+    return res.status(500).json({ error: 'Unknown error during validation' })
+  }
+
+  const { apiSecret, pathToRevalidate } = params
+
+  if (apiSecret !== process.env.API_SECRET) {
+    return res.status(401).json({ message: 'Invalid api secret' })
+  }
+
+  try {
+    await res.revalidate(pathToRevalidate)
+    return res.json({ revalidated: true })
+  } catch (err) {
+    return res.status(500).send('Error revalidating')
+  }
+}
--- a/web/pages/daily-movers.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/daily-movers.tsx
@ -2,13 +2,13 @@ import { ProbChangeTable } from 'web/components/contract/prob-change-table'
 import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col'
 import { Page } from 'web/components/page'
 import { Title } from 'web/components/title'
-import { useProbChanges } from 'web/hooks/use-prob-changes'
+import { useProbChangesAlgolia } from 'web/hooks/use-prob-changes'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'

 export default function DailyMovers() {
  const user = useUser()

-  const changes = useProbChanges(user?.id ?? '')
+  const changes = useProbChangesAlgolia(user?.id ?? '')

  return (
    <Page>
--- a/web/pages/group/[...slugs]/index.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/group/[...slugs]/index.tsx
@ -140,7 +140,10 @@ export default function GroupPage(props: {
  const user = useUser()
  const isAdmin = useAdmin()
  const memberIds = useMemberIds(group?.id ?? null) ?? props.memberIds
-  const [sidebarIndex, setSidebarIndex] = useState(0)
+  // Note: Keep in sync with sidebarPages
+  const [sidebarIndex, setSidebarIndex] = useState(
+    ['markets', 'leaderboards', 'about'].indexOf(page ?? 'markets')
+  )

  useSaveReferral(user, {
    defaultReferrerUsername: creator.username,
@ -208,7 +211,7 @@ export default function GroupPage(props: {
      <ContractSearch
        headerClassName="md:sticky"
        user={user}
-        defaultSort={'newest'}
+        defaultSort={'score'}
        defaultFilter={suggestedFilter}
        additionalFilter={{ groupSlug: group.slug }}
        persistPrefix={`group-${group.slug}`}
@ -241,6 +244,12 @@ export default function GroupPage(props: {
  const onSidebarClick = (key: string) => {
    const index = sidebarPages.findIndex((t) => t.key === key)
    setSidebarIndex(index)
+    // Append the page to the URL, e.g. /group/mexifold/markets
+    router.replace(
+      { query: { ...router.query, slugs: [group.slug, key] } },
+      undefined,
+      { shallow: true }
+    )
  }

  const joinOrAddQuestionsButton = (
@ -253,7 +262,11 @@ export default function GroupPage(props: {

  return (
    <>
-      <TopGroupNavBar group={group} />
+      <TopGroupNavBar
+        group={group}
+        currentPage={sidebarPages[sidebarIndex].key}
+        onClick={onSidebarClick}
+      />
      <div>
        <div
          className={
@ -278,19 +291,19 @@ export default function GroupPage(props: {
            {pageContent}
          </main>
        </div>
-        <GroupNavBar
-          currentPage={sidebarPages[sidebarIndex].key}
-          onClick={onSidebarClick}
-        />
      </div>
    </>
  )
 }

-export function TopGroupNavBar(props: { group: Group }) {
+export function TopGroupNavBar(props: {
+  group: Group
+  currentPage: string
+  onClick: (key: string) => void
+}) {
  return (
-    <header className="sticky top-0 z-50 w-full pb-2 md:hidden lg:col-span-12">
-      <div className="flex items-center  border-b border-gray-200 bg-white  px-4">
+    <header className="sticky top-0 z-50 w-full border-b border-gray-200 md:hidden lg:col-span-12">
+      <div className="flex items-center   bg-white  px-4">
        <div className="flex-shrink-0">
          <Link href="/">
            <a className="text-indigo-700 hover:text-gray-500 ">
@ -304,6 +317,7 @@ export function TopGroupNavBar(props: { group: Group }) {
          </h1>
        </div>
      </div>
+      <GroupNavBar currentPage={props.currentPage} onClick={props.onClick} />
    </header>
  )
 }
--- a/web/pages/home/edit.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/home/edit.tsx
@ -7,12 +7,12 @@ import { Row } from 'web/components/layout/row'
 import { Page } from 'web/components/page'
 import { SiteLink } from 'web/components/site-link'
 import { Title } from 'web/components/title'
-import { useMemberGroups } from 'web/hooks/use-group'
+import { useMemberGroupsSubscription } from 'web/hooks/use-group'
 import { useTracking } from 'web/hooks/use-tracking'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { updateUser } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
-import { getHomeItems } from '.'
+import { getHomeItems, TrendingGroupsSection } from '.'

 export default function Home() {
  const user = useUser()
@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ export default function Home() {
    setHomeSections(newHomeSections)
  }

-  const groups = useMemberGroups(user?.id) ?? []
+  const groups = useMemberGroupsSubscription(user)
  const { sections } = getHomeItems(groups, homeSections)

  return (
@ -38,7 +38,15 @@ export default function Home() {
          <DoneButton />
        </Row>

-        <ArrangeHome sections={sections} setSectionIds={updateHomeSections} />
+        <Col className="gap-8 md:flex-row">
+          <Col className="flex-1">
+            <ArrangeHome
+              sections={sections}
+              setSectionIds={updateHomeSections}
+            />
+          </Col>
+          <TrendingGroupsSection className="flex-1" user={user} full />
+        </Col>
      </Col>
    </Page>
  )
--- a/web/pages/home/index.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/home/index.tsx
@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
-import React, { ReactNode, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import React, { ReactNode, useEffect } from 'react'
 import Router from 'next/router'
 import {
  AdjustmentsIcon,
  PencilAltIcon,
  ArrowSmRightIcon,
 } from '@heroicons/react/solid'
-import { XCircleIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
+import { PlusCircleIcon, XCircleIcon } from '@heroicons/react/outline'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { toast, Toaster } from 'react-hot-toast'

@ -22,21 +22,16 @@ import { SiteLink } from 'web/components/site-link'
 import { usePrivateUser, useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import {
  useMemberGroupIds,
-  useMemberGroups,
+  useMemberGroupsSubscription,
  useTrendingGroups,
 } from 'web/hooks/use-group'
 import { Button } from 'web/components/button'
 import { Row } from 'web/components/layout/row'
 import { ProbChangeTable } from 'web/components/contract/prob-change-table'
-import {
-  getGroup,
-  groupPath,
-  joinGroup,
-  leaveGroup,
-} from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
+import { groupPath, joinGroup, leaveGroup } from 'web/lib/firebase/groups'
 import { usePortfolioHistory } from 'web/hooks/use-portfolio-history'
 import { formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
-import { useProbChanges } from 'web/hooks/use-prob-changes'
+import { useProbChangesAlgolia } from 'web/hooks/use-prob-changes'
 import { ProfitBadge } from 'web/components/bets-list'
 import { calculatePortfolioProfit } from 'common/calculate-metrics'
 import { hasCompletedStreakToday } from 'web/components/profile/betting-streak-modal'
@ -57,27 +52,32 @@ export default function Home() {
  useSaveReferral()
  usePrefetch(user?.id)

-  const cachedGroups = useMemberGroups(user?.id) ?? []
-  const groupIds = useMemberGroupIds(user)
-  const [groups, setGroups] = useState(cachedGroups)
-
-  useEffect(() => {
-    if (groupIds) {
-      Promise.all(groupIds.map((id) => getGroup(id))).then((groups) =>
-        setGroups(filterDefined(groups))
-      )
-    }
-  }, [groupIds])
+  const groups = useMemberGroupsSubscription(user)

  const { sections } = getHomeItems(groups, user?.homeSections ?? [])

+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (
+      user &&
+      !user.homeSections &&
+      sections.length > 0 &&
+      groups.length > 0
+    ) {
+      // Save initial home sections.
+      updateUser(user.id, { homeSections: sections.map((s) => s.id) })
+    }
+  }, [user, sections, groups])
+
  return (
    <Page>
      <Toaster />

      <Col className="pm:mx-10 gap-4 px-4 pb-12 pt-4 sm:pt-0">
        <Row className={'mb-2 w-full items-center justify-between gap-8'}>
+          <Row className="items-center gap-2">
            <Title className="!mt-0 !mb-0" text="Home" />
+            <CustomizeButton justIcon />
+          </Row>
          <DailyStats user={user} />
        </Row>

@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ export default function Home() {
 const HOME_SECTIONS = [
  { label: 'Daily movers', id: 'daily-movers' },
  { label: 'Trending', id: 'score' },
-  { label: 'New for you', id: 'new-for-you' },
+  { label: 'New', id: 'newest' },
  { label: 'Recently updated', id: 'recently-updated-for-you' },
 ]

@ -110,11 +110,12 @@ export const getHomeItems = (groups: Group[], sections: string[]) => {
  // Accommodate old home sections.
  if (!isArray(sections)) sections = []

-  const items = [
+  const items: { id: string; label: string; group?: Group }[] = [
    ...HOME_SECTIONS,
    ...groups.map((g) => ({
      label: g.name,
      id: g.id,
+      group: g,
    })),
  ]
  const itemsById = keyBy(items, 'id')
@ -139,16 +140,6 @@ function renderSection(
  if (id === 'daily-movers') {
    return <DailyMoversSection key={id} userId={user?.id} />
  }
-  if (id === 'new-for-you')
-    return (
-      <SearchSection
-        key={id}
-        label={label}
-        sort={'newest'}
-        pill="personal"
-        user={user}
-      />
-    )
  if (id === 'recently-updated-for-you')
    return (
      <SearchSection
@ -235,7 +226,6 @@ function GroupSection(props: {
    <Col>
      <SectionHeader label={group.name} href={groupPath(group.slug)}>
        <Button
-          className=""
          color="gray-white"
          onClick={() => {
            if (user) {
@ -252,10 +242,7 @@ function GroupSection(props: {
            }
          }}
        >
-          <XCircleIcon
-            className={clsx('h-5 w-5 flex-shrink-0')}
-            aria-hidden="true"
-          />
+          <XCircleIcon className={'h-5 w-5 flex-shrink-0'} aria-hidden="true" />
        </Button>
      </SectionHeader>
      <ContractsGrid contracts={contracts} />
@ -265,7 +252,16 @@ function GroupSection(props: {

 function DailyMoversSection(props: { userId: string | null | undefined }) {
  const { userId } = props
-  const changes = useProbChanges(userId ?? '')
+  const changes = useProbChangesAlgolia(userId ?? '')
+
+  if (changes) {
+    const { positiveChanges, negativeChanges } = changes
+    if (
+      !positiveChanges.find((c) => c.probChanges.day >= 0.01) ||
+      !negativeChanges.find((c) => c.probChanges.day <= -0.01)
+    )
+      return null
+  }

  return (
    <Col className="gap-2">
@ -285,8 +281,8 @@ function DailyStats(props: {
  const [first, last] = [metrics[0], metrics[metrics.length - 1]]

  const privateUser = usePrivateUser()
-  const streaksHidden =
-    privateUser?.notificationPreferences.betting_streaks.length === 0
+  const streaks = privateUser?.notificationPreferences?.betting_streaks ?? []
+  const streaksHidden = streaks.length === 0

  let profit = 0
  let profitPercent = 0
@ -322,24 +318,29 @@ function DailyStats(props: {
  )
 }

-function TrendingGroupsSection(props: { user: User | null | undefined }) {
-  const { user } = props
+export function TrendingGroupsSection(props: {
+  user: User | null | undefined
+  full?: boolean
+  className?: string
+}) {
+  const { user, full, className } = props
  const memberGroupIds = useMemberGroupIds(user) || []

  const groups = useTrendingGroups().filter(
    (g) => !memberGroupIds.includes(g.id)
  )
-  const count = 25
+  const count = full ? 100 : 25
  const chosenGroups = groups.slice(0, count)

  return (
-    <Col>
+    <Col className={className}>
      <SectionHeader label="Trending groups" href="/explore-groups">
-        <CustomizeButton />
+        {!full && <CustomizeButton className="mb-1" />}
      </SectionHeader>
      <Row className="flex-wrap gap-2">
        {chosenGroups.map((g) => (
          <PillButton
+            className="flex flex-row items-center gap-1"
            key={g.id}
            selected={memberGroupIds.includes(g.id)}
            onSelect={() => {
@ -361,6 +362,11 @@ function TrendingGroupsSection(props: { user: User | null | undefined }) {
              }
            }}
          >
+            <PlusCircleIcon
+              className={'h-5 w-5 flex-shrink-0 text-gray-500'}
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+
            {g.name}
          </PillButton>
        ))}
@ -369,10 +375,14 @@ function TrendingGroupsSection(props: { user: User | null | undefined }) {
  )
 }

-function CustomizeButton() {
+function CustomizeButton(props: { justIcon?: boolean; className?: string }) {
+  const { justIcon, className } = props
  return (
    <SiteLink
-      className="mb-2 flex flex-row items-center text-xl hover:no-underline"
+      className={clsx(
+        className,
+        'flex flex-row items-center text-xl hover:no-underline'
+      )}
      href="/home/edit"
    >
      <Button size="lg" color="gray" className={clsx('flex gap-2')}>
@ -380,7 +390,7 @@ function CustomizeButton() {
          className={clsx('h-[24px] w-5 text-gray-500')}
          aria-hidden="true"
        />
-        Customize
+        {!justIcon && 'Customize'}
      </Button>
    </SiteLink>
  )
--- a/web/pages/notifications.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/notifications.tsx
@ -435,7 +435,7 @@ function IncomeNotificationItem(props: {
      reasonText = !simple
        ? `Bonus for ${
            parseInt(sourceText) / UNIQUE_BETTOR_BONUS_AMOUNT
-          } new predictors on`
+          } new traders on`
        : 'bonus on'
    } else if (sourceType === 'tip') {
      reasonText = !simple ? `tipped you on` : `in tips on`
@ -556,7 +556,7 @@ function IncomeNotificationItem(props: {
          {(isTip || isUniqueBettorBonus) && (
            <MultiUserTransactionLink
              userInfos={userLinks}
-              modalLabel={isTip ? 'Who tipped you' : 'Unique predictors'}
+              modalLabel={isTip ? 'Who tipped you' : 'Unique traders'}
            />
          )}
          <Row className={'line-clamp-2 flex max-w-xl'}>
@ -971,13 +971,20 @@ function ContractResolvedNotification(props: {
  const { sourceText, data } = notification
  const { userInvestment, userPayout } = (data as ContractResolutionData) ?? {}
  const subtitle = 'resolved the market'
+
  const resolutionDescription = () => {
    if (!sourceText) return <div />
+
    if (sourceText === 'YES' || sourceText == 'NO') {
      return <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={sourceText as any} />
    }
+
    if (sourceText.includes('%'))
-      return <ProbPercentLabel prob={parseFloat(sourceText.replace('%', ''))} />
+      return (
+        <ProbPercentLabel
+          prob={parseFloat(sourceText.replace('%', '')) / 100}
+        />
+      )
    if (sourceText === 'CANCEL') return <CancelLabel />
    if (sourceText === 'MKT' || sourceText === 'PROB') return <MultiLabel />

@ -996,7 +1003,7 @@ function ContractResolvedNotification(props: {
  const description =
    userInvestment && userPayout !== undefined ? (
      <Row className={'gap-1 '}>
-        {resolutionDescription()}
+        Resolved: {resolutionDescription()}
        Invested:
        <span className={'text-primary'}>{formatMoney(userInvestment)} </span>
        Payout:
@ -1013,7 +1020,7 @@ function ContractResolvedNotification(props: {
        </span>
      </Row>
    ) : (
-      <span>{resolutionDescription()}</span>
+      <span>Resolved {resolutionDescription()}</span>
    )

  if (justSummary) {
--- a/web/pages/search.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/search.tsx
@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import { ContractSearch } from 'web/components/contract-search'
 import { useTracking } from 'web/hooks/use-tracking'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { usePrefetch } from 'web/hooks/use-prefetch'
+import { useRouter } from 'next/router'

 export default function Search() {
  const user = useUser()
@ -11,6 +12,10 @@ export default function Search() {

  useTracking('view search')

+  const { query } = useRouter()
+  const { q, s, p } = query
+  const autoFocus = !q && !s && !p
+
  return (
    <Page>
      <Col className="mx-auto w-full p-2">
@ -18,7 +23,7 @@ export default function Search() {
          user={user}
          persistPrefix="search"
          useQueryUrlParam={true}
-          autoFocus
+          autoFocus={autoFocus}
        />
      </Col>
    </Page>
--- a/web/pages/stats.tsx
+++ b/web/pages/stats.tsx
@ -1,4 +1,3 @@
-import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import {
  DailyCountChart,
@ -47,65 +46,38 @@ export default function Analytics() {
  )
 }

-export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
-  startDate: number
-  dailyActiveUsers: number[]
-  weeklyActiveUsers: number[]
-  monthlyActiveUsers: number[]
-  dailyBetCounts: number[]
-  dailyContractCounts: number[]
-  dailyCommentCounts: number[]
-  dailySignups: number[]
-  weekOnWeekRetention: number[]
-  monthlyRetention: number[]
-  weeklyActivationRate: number[]
-  topTenthActions: {
-    daily: number[]
-    weekly: number[]
-    monthly: number[]
-  }
-  manaBet: {
-    daily: number[]
-    weekly: number[]
-    monthly: number[]
-  }
-}) {
+export function CustomAnalytics(props: Stats) {
  const {
+    startDate,
    dailyActiveUsers,
+    dailyActiveUsersWeeklyAvg,
+    weeklyActiveUsers,
+    monthlyActiveUsers,
+    d1,
+    d1WeeklyAvg,
+    nd1,
+    nd1WeeklyAvg,
+    nw1,
    dailyBetCounts,
    dailyContractCounts,
    dailyCommentCounts,
    dailySignups,
-    weeklyActiveUsers,
-    monthlyActiveUsers,
    weekOnWeekRetention,
    monthlyRetention,
-    weeklyActivationRate,
-    topTenthActions,
+    dailyActivationRate,
+    dailyActivationRateWeeklyAvg,
    manaBet,
  } = props

-  const startDate = dayjs(props.startDate).add(12, 'hours').valueOf()
-
-  const dailyDividedByWeekly = dailyActiveUsers
-    .map((dailyActive, i) =>
-      Math.round((100 * dailyActive) / weeklyActiveUsers[i])
+  const dailyDividedByWeekly = dailyActiveUsers.map(
+    (dailyActive, i) => dailyActive / weeklyActiveUsers[i]
  )
-    .slice(7)
-
-  const dailyDividedByMonthly = dailyActiveUsers
-    .map((dailyActive, i) =>
-      Math.round((100 * dailyActive) / monthlyActiveUsers[i])
+  const dailyDividedByMonthly = dailyActiveUsers.map(
+    (dailyActive, i) => dailyActive / monthlyActiveUsers[i]
  )
-    .slice(7)
-
-  const weeklyDividedByMonthly = weeklyActiveUsers
-    .map((weeklyActive, i) =>
-      Math.round((100 * weeklyActive) / monthlyActiveUsers[i])
+  const weeklyDividedByMonthly = weeklyActiveUsers.map(
+    (weeklyActive, i) => weeklyActive / monthlyActiveUsers[i]
  )
-    .slice(7)
-
-  const oneWeekLaterDate = startDate + 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000

  return (
    <Col className="px-2 sm:px-0">
@ -129,6 +101,16 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
              />
            ),
          },
+          {
+            title: 'Daily (7d avg)',
+            content: (
+              <DailyCountChart
+                dailyCounts={dailyActiveUsersWeeklyAvg}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                small
+              />
+            ),
+          },
          {
            title: 'Weekly',
            content: (
@ -153,6 +135,108 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
      />
      <Spacer h={8} />

+      <Title text="Retention" />
+      <p className="text-gray-500">
+        What fraction of active users are still active after the given time
+        period?
+      </p>
+      <Tabs
+        defaultIndex={1}
+        tabs={[
+          {
+            title: 'D1',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={d1}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                small
+                excludeFirstDays={1}
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+          {
+            title: 'D1 (7d avg)',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={d1WeeklyAvg}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                small
+                excludeFirstDays={7}
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+          {
+            title: 'W1',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={weekOnWeekRetention}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                small
+                excludeFirstDays={14}
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+          {
+            title: 'M1',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={monthlyRetention}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                small
+                excludeFirstDays={60}
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+        ]}
+      />
+
+      <Spacer h={8} />
+      <Title text="New user retention" />
+      <p className="text-gray-500">
+        What fraction of new users are still active after the given time period?
+      </p>
+      <Spacer h={4} />
+
+      <Tabs
+        defaultIndex={2}
+        tabs={[
+          {
+            title: 'ND1',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={nd1}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                excludeFirstDays={1}
+                small
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+          {
+            title: 'ND1 (7d avg)',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={nd1WeeklyAvg}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                excludeFirstDays={7}
+                small
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+          {
+            title: 'NW1',
+            content: (
+              <DailyPercentChart
+                dailyPercent={nw1}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                excludeFirstDays={14}
+                small
+              />
+            ),
+          },
+        ]}
+      />
+      <Spacer h={8} />
+
      <Title text="Daily activity" />
      <Tabs
        defaultIndex={0}
@ -202,30 +286,33 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {

      <Spacer h={8} />

-      <Title text="Retention" />
+      <Title text="Activation rate" />
      <p className="text-gray-500">
-        What fraction of active users are still active after the given time
-        period?
+        Out of all new users, how many placed at least one bet?
      </p>
+      <Spacer h={4} />
+
      <Tabs
-        defaultIndex={0}
+        defaultIndex={1}
        tabs={[
          {
-            title: 'Weekly',
+            title: 'Daily',
            content: (
              <DailyPercentChart
-                dailyPercent={weekOnWeekRetention.slice(7)}
-                startDate={oneWeekLaterDate}
+                dailyPercent={dailyActivationRate}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                excludeFirstDays={1}
                small
              />
            ),
          },
          {
-            title: 'Monthly',
+            title: 'Daily (7d avg)',
            content: (
              <DailyPercentChart
-                dailyPercent={monthlyRetention.slice(7)}
-                startDate={oneWeekLaterDate}
+                dailyPercent={dailyActivationRateWeeklyAvg}
+                startDate={startDate}
+                excludeFirstDays={7}
                small
              />
            ),
@ -234,17 +321,6 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
      />
      <Spacer h={8} />

-      <Title text="Weekly activation rate" />
-      <p className="text-gray-500">
-        Out of all new users this week, how many placed at least one bet?
-      </p>
-      <DailyPercentChart
-        dailyPercent={weeklyActivationRate.slice(7)}
-        startDate={oneWeekLaterDate}
-        small
-      />
-      <Spacer h={8} />
-
      <Title text="Ratio of Active Users" />
      <Tabs
        defaultIndex={1}
@ -254,8 +330,9 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
            content: (
              <DailyPercentChart
                dailyPercent={dailyDividedByWeekly}
-                startDate={oneWeekLaterDate}
+                startDate={startDate}
                small
+                excludeFirstDays={7}
              />
            ),
          },
@ -264,8 +341,9 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
            content: (
              <DailyPercentChart
                dailyPercent={dailyDividedByMonthly}
-                startDate={oneWeekLaterDate}
+                startDate={startDate}
                small
+                excludeFirstDays={30}
              />
            ),
          },
@ -274,8 +352,9 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
            content: (
              <DailyPercentChart
                dailyPercent={weeklyDividedByMonthly}
-                startDate={oneWeekLaterDate}
+                startDate={startDate}
                small
+                excludeFirstDays={30}
              />
            ),
          },
@ -283,47 +362,6 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
      />
      <Spacer h={8} />

-      <Title text="Action count of top tenth" />
-      <p className="text-gray-500">
-        Number of actions (bets, comments, markets created) taken by the tenth
-        percentile of top users.
-      </p>
-      <Tabs
-        defaultIndex={1}
-        tabs={[
-          {
-            title: 'Daily',
-            content: (
-              <DailyCountChart
-                dailyCounts={topTenthActions.daily}
-                startDate={startDate}
-                small
-              />
-            ),
-          },
-          {
-            title: 'Weekly',
-            content: (
-              <DailyCountChart
-                dailyCounts={topTenthActions.weekly}
-                startDate={startDate}
-                small
-              />
-            ),
-          },
-          {
-            title: 'Monthly',
-            content: (
-              <DailyCountChart
-                dailyCounts={topTenthActions.monthly}
-                startDate={startDate}
-                small
-              />
-            ),
-          },
-        ]}
-      />
-
      <Title text="Total mana bet" />
      <p className="text-gray-500">
        Sum of bet amounts. (Divided by 100 to be more readable.)
@ -363,6 +401,7 @@ export function CustomAnalytics(props: {
          },
        ]}
      />
+      <Spacer h={8} />
    </Col>
  )
 }
--- a/web/public/mtg/jsons/artistList.json
+++ b/web/public/mtg/jsons/artistList.json
--- a/yarn.lock
+++ b/yarn.lock
@ -3398,6 +3398,14 @@
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/@types/module-alias/-/module-alias-2.0.1.tgz#e5893236ce922152d57c5f3f978f764f4deeb45f"
  integrity sha512-DN/CCT1HQG6HquBNJdLkvV+4v5l/oEuwOHUPLxI+Eub0NED+lk0YUfba04WGH90EINiUrNgClkNnwGmbICeWMQ==

+"@types/node-fetch@2.6.2":
+  version "2.6.2"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/@types/node-fetch/-/node-fetch-2.6.2.tgz#d1a9c5fd049d9415dce61571557104dec3ec81da"
+  integrity sha512-DHqhlq5jeESLy19TYhLakJ07kNumXWjcDdxXsLUMJZ6ue8VZJj4kLPQVE/2mdHh3xZziNF1xppu5lwmS53HR+A==
+  dependencies:
+    "@types/node" "*"
+    form-data "^3.0.0"
+
 "@types/node@*", "@types/node@>=12.12.47", "@types/node@>=13.7.0", "@types/node@>=8.1.0":
  version "17.0.35"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/@types/node/-/node-17.0.35.tgz#635b7586086d51fb40de0a2ec9d1014a5283ba4a"
@ -4777,7 +4785,7 @@ combine-promises@^1.1.0:
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/combine-promises/-/combine-promises-1.1.0.tgz#72db90743c0ca7aab7d0d8d2052fd7b0f674de71"
  integrity sha512-ZI9jvcLDxqwaXEixOhArm3r7ReIivsXkpbyEWyeOhzz1QS0iSgBPnWvEqvIQtYyamGCYA88gFhmUrs9hrrQ0pg==

-combined-stream@^1.0.6:
+combined-stream@^1.0.6, combined-stream@^1.0.8:
  version "1.0.8"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/combined-stream/-/combined-stream-1.0.8.tgz#c3d45a8b34fd730631a110a8a2520682b31d5a7f"
  integrity sha512-FQN4MRfuJeHf7cBbBMJFXhKSDq+2kAArBlmRBvcvFE5BB1HZKXtSFASDhdlz9zOYwxh8lDdnvmMOe/+5cdoEdg==
@ -6536,6 +6544,15 @@ form-data@^2.3.3, form-data@^2.5.0:
    combined-stream "^1.0.6"
    mime-types "^2.1.12"

+form-data@^3.0.0:
+  version "3.0.1"
+  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/form-data/-/form-data-3.0.1.tgz#ebd53791b78356a99af9a300d4282c4d5eb9755f"
+  integrity sha512-RHkBKtLWUVwd7SqRIvCZMEvAMoGUp0XU+seQiZejj0COz3RI3hWP4sCv3gZWWLjJTd7rGwcsF5eKZGii0r/hbg==
+  dependencies:
+    asynckit "^0.4.0"
+    combined-stream "^1.0.8"
+    mime-types "^2.1.12"
+
 formdata-polyfill@^4.0.10:
  version "4.0.10"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/formdata-polyfill/-/formdata-polyfill-4.0.10.tgz#24807c31c9d402e002ab3d8c720144ceb8848423"
@ -8666,7 +8683,7 @@ node-emoji@^1.10.0:
  dependencies:
    lodash "^4.17.21"

-node-fetch@2.6.7, node-fetch@^2.6.1, node-fetch@^2.6.7:
+node-fetch@2, node-fetch@2.6.7, node-fetch@^2.6.1, node-fetch@^2.6.7:
  version "2.6.7"
  resolved "https://registry.yarnpkg.com/node-fetch/-/node-fetch-2.6.7.tgz#24de9fba827e3b4ae44dc8b20256a379160052ad"
  integrity sha512-ZjMPFEfVx5j+y2yF35Kzx5sF7kDzxuDj6ziH4FFbOp87zKDZNx8yExJIb05OGF4Nlt9IHFIMBkRl41VdvcNdbQ==