move market logic to common
This commit is contained in:
mantikoros
parent
8266fb995c
commit
a1aeabeab4
19
common/antes.ts
Normal file
19
common/antes.ts
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@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
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export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 200;
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export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante?: number) => {
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const p = initialProbInt / 100.0;
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const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + (ante || 0);
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const poolYes =
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p === 0.5
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? p * totalAnte
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: -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p);
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const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes;
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const f = PHANTOM_ANTE / totalAnte;
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const startYes = f * poolYes;
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const startNo = f * poolNo;
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return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo };
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};
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56
common/new-bet.ts
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56
common/new-bet.ts
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@ -0,0 +1,56 @@
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import { Bet } from "./bet";
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import { Contract } from "./contract";
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import { User } from "./user";
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export const getNewBetInfo = (
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user: User,
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outcome: "YES" | "NO",
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amount: number,
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contract: Contract,
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newBetId: string
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) => {
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool;
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const newPool =
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outcome === "YES"
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? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
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: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount };
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const shares =
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outcome === "YES"
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? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
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: amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool);
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares;
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const newTotalShares =
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outcome === "YES"
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? { YES: yesShares + shares, NO: noShares }
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: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares + shares };
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const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets;
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const newTotalBets =
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outcome === "YES"
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? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
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: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount };
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const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2);
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const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2);
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const newBet: Bet = {
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id: newBetId,
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userId: user.id,
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contractId: contract.id,
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amount,
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shares,
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outcome,
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probBefore,
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probAfter,
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createdTime: Date.now(),
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};
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const newBalance = user.balance - amount;
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return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets, newBalance };
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};
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48
common/new-contract.ts
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48
common/new-contract.ts
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@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
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import { calcStartPool } from "./antes";
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import { Contract } from "./contract";
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import { User } from "./user";
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export function getNewContract(
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id: string,
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slug: string,
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creator: User,
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question: string,
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description: string,
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initialProb: number,
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ante?: number,
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closeTime?: number
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) {
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const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
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initialProb,
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ante
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);
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const contract: Contract = {
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id,
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slug,
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outcomeType: "BINARY",
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creatorId: creator.id,
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creatorName: creator.name,
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creatorUsername: creator.username,
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question: question.trim(),
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description: description.trim(),
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startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
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pool: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
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totalShares: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
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totalBets: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
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isResolved: false,
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createdTime: Date.now(),
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lastUpdatedTime: Date.now(),
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volume24Hours: 0,
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volume7Days: 0,
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};
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if (closeTime) contract.closeTime = closeTime;
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return contract;
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}
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128
common/payouts.ts
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128
common/payouts.ts
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@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
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import { Bet } from "./bet";
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import { Contract } from "./contract";
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import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from "./fees";
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export const getCancelPayouts = (truePool: number, bets: Bet[]) => {
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console.log("resolved N/A, pool M$", truePool);
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const betSum = sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount);
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return bets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * truePool,
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}));
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};
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export const getStandardPayouts = (
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outcome: string,
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truePool: number,
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contract: Contract,
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bets: Bet[]
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) => {
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const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === "YES");
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const winningBets = outcome === "YES" ? yesBets : noBets;
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const betSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount);
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if (betSum >= truePool) return getCancelPayouts(truePool, winningBets);
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool;
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console.log(
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"resolved",
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outcome,
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"pool: M$",
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truePool,
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"creator fee: M$",
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creatorPayout
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);
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const shareDifferenceSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount);
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const winningsPool = truePool - betSum;
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const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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(1 - FEES) *
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(bet.amount +
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((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) * winningsPool),
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}));
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return winnerPayouts.concat([
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{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
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]); // add creator fee
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};
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export const getMktPayouts = (
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truePool: number,
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contract: Contract,
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bets: Bet[]
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) => {
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const p =
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contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2);
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console.log("Resolved MKT at p=", p, "pool: $M", truePool);
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const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === "YES");
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const weightedBetTotal =
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p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) +
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(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount);
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if (weightedBetTotal >= truePool) {
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return bets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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(((bet.outcome === "YES" ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) /
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weightedBetTotal) *
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truePool,
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}));
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}
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const winningsPool = truePool - weightedBetTotal;
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const weightedShareTotal =
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p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) +
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(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount);
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const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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(1 - FEES) *
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(p * bet.amount +
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((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool),
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}));
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const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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(1 - FEES) *
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((1 - p) * bet.amount +
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(((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
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winningsPool),
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}));
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool;
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return [
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...yesPayouts,
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...noPayouts,
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{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
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];
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};
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const partition = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => boolean) => {
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const yes = [];
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const no = [];
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for (let t of array) {
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if (f(t)) yes.push(t);
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else no.push(t);
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}
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return [yes, no] as [T[], T[]];
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};
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const sumBy = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => number) => {
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const values = array.map(f);
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return values.reduce((prev, cur) => prev + cur, 0);
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};
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108
common/sell-bet.ts
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108
common/sell-bet.ts
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@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
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import { Bet } from "./bet";
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import { Contract } from "./contract";
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import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from "./fees";
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import { User } from "./user";
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export const getSellBetInfo = (
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user: User,
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bet: Bet,
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contract: Contract,
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newBetId: string
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) => {
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const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet;
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool;
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const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool;
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares;
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const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets;
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const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares];
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const shareValue =
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outcome === "YES"
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? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
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(n ** 2 +
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s * y +
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y ** 2 -
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Math.sqrt(
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n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
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)) /
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(2 * y)
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: (y ** 2 +
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s * n +
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n ** 2 -
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Math.sqrt(
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y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
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)) /
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(2 * n);
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const startPool = yesStart + noStart;
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const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool;
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const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2);
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const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares);
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const myPool = outcome === "YES" ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart;
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const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool);
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const newPool =
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outcome === "YES"
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? { YES: yesPool - adjShareValue, NO: noPool }
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: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool - adjShareValue };
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const newTotalShares =
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outcome === "YES"
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? { YES: yesShares - shares, NO: noShares }
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: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares - shares };
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const newTotalBets =
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outcome === "YES"
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? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
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: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount };
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const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2);
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const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue;
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const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue;
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console.log(
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"SELL M$",
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amount,
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outcome,
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"for M$",
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saleAmount,
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"M$/share:",
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f,
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"creator fee: M$",
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creatorFee
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);
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const newBet: Bet = {
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id: newBetId,
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userId: user.id,
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contractId: contract.id,
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amount: -adjShareValue,
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shares: -shares,
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outcome,
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probBefore,
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probAfter,
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createdTime: Date.now(),
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sale: {
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amount: saleAmount,
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betId,
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},
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};
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const newBalance = user.balance + saleAmount;
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return {
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newBet,
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newPool,
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newTotalShares,
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newTotalBets,
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newBalance,
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creatorFee,
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};
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};
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@ -1,12 +1,11 @@
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import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
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import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
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import { getUser } from './utils'
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import { payUser } from '.'
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import { chargeUser, getUser } from './utils'
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import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
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import { User } from '../../common/user'
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import { slugify } from '../../common/util/slugify'
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import { randomString } from '../../common/util/random-string'
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import { getNewContract } from '../../common/new-contract'
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export const createContract = functions
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.runWith({ minInstances: 1 })
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@ -62,7 +61,7 @@ export const createContract = functions
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closeTime
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)
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if (ante) await payUser([creator.id, -ante])
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if (ante) await chargeUser(creator.id, ante)
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await contractRef.create(contract)
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return { status: 'success', contract }
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@ -70,7 +69,7 @@ export const createContract = functions
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)
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const getSlug = async (question: string) => {
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const proposedSlug = slugify(question).substring(0, 35)
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const proposedSlug = slugify(question)
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const preexistingContract = await getContractFromSlug(proposedSlug)
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@ -79,73 +78,6 @@ const getSlug = async (question: string) => {
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: proposedSlug
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}
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function getNewContract(
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id: string,
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slug: string,
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creator: User,
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question: string,
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description: string,
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initialProb: number,
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ante?: number,
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closeTime?: number
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) {
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const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
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initialProb,
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ante
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)
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const contract: Contract = {
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id,
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slug,
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outcomeType: 'BINARY',
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creatorId: creator.id,
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creatorName: creator.name,
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creatorUsername: creator.username,
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question: question.trim(),
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description: description.trim(),
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startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
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pool: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
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totalShares: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
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totalBets: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
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isResolved: false,
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createdTime: Date.now(),
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lastUpdatedTime: Date.now(),
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volume24Hours: 0,
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volume7Days: 0,
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}
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if (closeTime) contract.closeTime = closeTime
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return contract
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}
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const calcStartPool = (
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initialProbInt: number,
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ante?: number,
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phantomAnte = 200
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) => {
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const p = initialProbInt / 100.0
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const totalAnte = phantomAnte + (ante || 0)
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const poolYes =
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p === 0.5
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? p * totalAnte
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: -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p)
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const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes
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const f = phantomAnte / totalAnte
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const startYes = f * poolYes
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const startNo = f * poolNo
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return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo }
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}
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const firestore = admin.firestore()
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export async function getContractFromSlug(slug: string) {
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|
|
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@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
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import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
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import { User } from '../../common/user'
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import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
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import { getNewBetInfo } from '../../common/new-bet'
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export const placeBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
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async (
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|
|
@ -67,56 +67,3 @@ export const placeBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
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)
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const firestore = admin.firestore()
|
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const getNewBetInfo = (
|
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user: User,
|
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
|
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amount: number,
|
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contract: Contract,
|
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newBetId: string
|
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) => {
|
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
|
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|
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const newPool =
|
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outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
|
||||
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount }
|
||||
|
||||
const shares =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
|
||||
: amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
|
||||
|
||||
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
|
||||
|
||||
const newTotalShares =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? { YES: yesShares + shares, NO: noShares }
|
||||
: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares + shares }
|
||||
|
||||
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
|
||||
|
||||
const newTotalBets =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
|
||||
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount }
|
||||
|
||||
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
|
||||
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
|
||||
|
||||
const newBet: Bet = {
|
||||
id: newBetId,
|
||||
userId: user.id,
|
||||
contractId: contract.id,
|
||||
amount,
|
||||
shares,
|
||||
outcome,
|
||||
probBefore,
|
||||
probAfter,
|
||||
createdTime: Date.now(),
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const newBalance = user.balance - amount
|
||||
|
||||
return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets, newBalance }
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
|
|||
import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
|
||||
import * as functions from 'firebase-functions'
|
||||
|
||||
import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from '../../common/fees'
|
||||
import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
|
||||
import { User } from '../../common/user'
|
||||
import { Bet } from '../../common/bet'
|
||||
import { getSellBetInfo } from '../../common/sell-bet'
|
||||
|
||||
export const sellBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
|
||||
async (
|
||||
|
|
@ -80,107 +80,3 @@ export const sellBet = functions.runWith({ minInstances: 1 }).https.onCall(
|
|||
)
|
||||
|
||||
const firestore = admin.firestore()
|
||||
|
||||
const getSellBetInfo = (
|
||||
user: User,
|
||||
bet: Bet,
|
||||
contract: Contract,
|
||||
newBetId: string
|
||||
) => {
|
||||
const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet
|
||||
|
||||
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
|
||||
const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
|
||||
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
|
||||
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
|
||||
|
||||
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
|
||||
|
||||
const shareValue =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
|
||||
(n ** 2 +
|
||||
s * y +
|
||||
y ** 2 -
|
||||
Math.sqrt(
|
||||
n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
|
||||
)) /
|
||||
(2 * y)
|
||||
: (y ** 2 +
|
||||
s * n +
|
||||
n ** 2 -
|
||||
Math.sqrt(
|
||||
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
|
||||
)) /
|
||||
(2 * n)
|
||||
|
||||
const startPool = yesStart + noStart
|
||||
const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
|
||||
|
||||
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
|
||||
|
||||
const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
|
||||
|
||||
const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
|
||||
|
||||
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
|
||||
|
||||
const newPool =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? { YES: yesPool - adjShareValue, NO: noPool }
|
||||
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool - adjShareValue }
|
||||
|
||||
const newTotalShares =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? { YES: yesShares - shares, NO: noShares }
|
||||
: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares - shares }
|
||||
|
||||
const newTotalBets =
|
||||
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||
? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
|
||||
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount }
|
||||
|
||||
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
|
||||
|
||||
const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
|
||||
const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue
|
||||
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
'SELL M$',
|
||||
amount,
|
||||
outcome,
|
||||
'for M$',
|
||||
saleAmount,
|
||||
'M$/share:',
|
||||
f,
|
||||
'creator fee: M$',
|
||||
creatorFee
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
const newBet: Bet = {
|
||||
id: newBetId,
|
||||
userId: user.id,
|
||||
contractId: contract.id,
|
||||
amount: -adjShareValue,
|
||||
shares: -shares,
|
||||
outcome,
|
||||
probBefore,
|
||||
probAfter,
|
||||
createdTime: Date.now(),
|
||||
sale: {
|
||||
amount: saleAmount,
|
||||
betId,
|
||||
},
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
const newBalance = user.balance + saleAmount
|
||||
|
||||
return {
|
||||
newBet,
|
||||
newPool,
|
||||
newTotalShares,
|
||||
newTotalBets,
|
||||
newBalance,
|
||||
creatorFee,
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user