Switch to new dpm mechanism (#26)

* initial commit

* antes

* rename path, compute to contractPath, contractMetrics

* merge

* Include antes as bets; more calculations

* fees on estimated winnings

* mkt payout calculation

* contract: remove startPool, add phantomShares

* Merge branch 'main' into new-dpm

* dpm migration script

* my service account

common/antes.ts

@@ -1,19 +1,58 @@
+import { Bet } from './bet'
+import { getProbability } from './calculate'
+import { Contract } from './contract'
+import { User } from './user'
+
 export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 200
 
-export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante?: number) => {
+export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante = 0) => {
   const p = initialProbInt / 100.0
-  const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + (ante || 0)
+  const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + ante
 
-  const poolYes =
+  const sharesYes = Math.sqrt(p * totalAnte ** 2)
-    p === 0.5
+  const sharesNo = Math.sqrt(totalAnte ** 2 - sharesYes ** 2)
-      ? p * totalAnte
-      : -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p)
 
-  const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes
+  const poolYes = p * ante
+  const poolNo = (1 - p) * ante
 
-  const f = PHANTOM_ANTE / totalAnte
+  const phantomYes = Math.sqrt(p) * PHANTOM_ANTE
-  const startYes = f * poolYes
+  const phantomNo = Math.sqrt(1 - p) * PHANTOM_ANTE
-  const startNo = f * poolNo
 
-  return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo }
+  return { sharesYes, sharesNo, poolYes, poolNo, phantomYes, phantomNo }
+}
+
+export function getAnteBets(
+  creator: User,
+  contract: Contract,
+  yesAnteId: string,
+  noAnteId: string
+) {
+  const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+  const ante = contract.totalBets.YES + contract.totalBets.NO
+
+  const yesBet: Bet = {
+    id: yesAnteId,
+    userId: creator.id,
+    contractId: contract.id,
+    amount: p * ante,
+    shares: Math.sqrt(p) * ante,
+    outcome: 'YES',
+    probBefore: p,
+    probAfter: p,
+    createdTime: Date.now(),
+  }
+
+  const noBet: Bet = {
+    id: noAnteId,
+    userId: creator.id,
+    contractId: contract.id,
+    amount: (1 - p) * ante,
+    shares: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * ante,
+    outcome: 'NO',
+    probBefore: p,
+    probAfter: p,
+    createdTime: Date.now(),
+  }
+
+  return { yesBet, noBet }
 }

common/calculate.ts

@@ -2,37 +2,96 @@ import { Bet } from './bet'
 import { Contract } from './contract'
 import { FEES } from './fees'
 
-export const blah = () => 999
+export function getProbability(totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }) {
-
+  const { YES: y, NO: n } = totalShares
-export const getProbability = (pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) => {
+  return y ** 2 / (y ** 2 + n ** 2)
-  const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
-  const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
-  const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
-  return numerator / denominator
 }
 
 export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
-  pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
+  totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
   outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
   bet: number
 ) {
-  const [YES, NO] = [
+  const shares = calculateShares(totalShares, bet, outcome)
-    pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
+
-    pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
+  const [YES, NO] =
-  ]
+    outcome === 'YES'
+      ? [totalShares.YES + shares, totalShares.NO]
+      : [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO + shares]
+
   return getProbability({ YES, NO })
 }
 
 export function calculateShares(
-  pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
+  totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
   bet: number,
   betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
 ) {
-  const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
+  const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO]
+
+  const c = 2 * bet * Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
 
   return betChoice === 'YES'
-    ? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool)
+    ? Math.sqrt(bet ** 2 + yesShares ** 2 + c) - yesShares
-    : bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool)
+    : Math.sqrt(bet ** 2 + noShares ** 2 + c) - noShares
+}
+
+export function calculateEstimatedWinnings(
+  totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
+  shares: number,
+  betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
+) {
+  const ind = betChoice === 'YES' ? 1 : 0
+
+  const yesShares = totalShares.YES + ind * shares
+  const noShares = totalShares.NO + (1 - ind) * shares
+
+  const estPool = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
+  const total = ind * yesShares + (1 - ind) * noShares
+
+  return ((1 - FEES) * (shares * estPool)) / total
+}
+
+export function calculateRawShareValue(
+  totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number },
+  shares: number,
+  betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
+) {
+  const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO]
+  const currentValue = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
+
+  const postSaleValue =
+    betChoice === 'YES'
+      ? Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, yesShares - shares) ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
+      : Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + Math.max(0, noShares - shares) ** 2)
+
+  return currentValue - postSaleValue
+}
+
+export function calculateMoneyRatio(contract: Contract) {
+  const { totalShares, pool } = contract
+  const [yesShares, noShares] = [totalShares.YES, totalShares.NO]
+
+  const actual = pool.YES + pool.NO
+  const expected = Math.sqrt(yesShares ** 2 + noShares ** 2)
+  return actual / expected
+}
+
+export function calculateShareValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const shareValue = calculateRawShareValue(
+    contract.totalShares,
+    bet.shares,
+    bet.outcome
+  )
+  const f = calculateMoneyRatio(contract)
+
+  const myPool = contract.pool[bet.outcome]
+  const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
+  return adjShareValue
+}
+
+export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  return (1 - FEES) * calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
 }
 
 export function calculatePayout(
@@ -40,56 +99,74 @@ export function calculatePayout(
   bet: Bet,
   outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
 ) {
-  const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
+  if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return calculateCancelPayout(contract, bet)
-
-  if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
   if (outcome === 'MKT') return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet)
 
+  return calculateStandardPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
+}
+
+export function calculateCancelPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
+  const totalBets = contract.totalBets.YES + contract.totalBets.NO
+  const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
+
+  return (bet.amount / totalBets) * pool
+}
+
+export function calculateStandardPayout(
+  contract: Contract,
+  bet: Bet,
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
+) {
+  const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
   if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
 
-  const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
+  const { totalShares, totalBets, phantomShares } = contract
-
   if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
 
-  const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
-  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
 
   if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
     return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
 
-  const total = totalShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
+  const total =
+    totalShares[outcome] - phantomShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
   const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]
 
   return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
 }
 
 export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  const { amount, outcome, shares } = bet
+  const { totalShares, pool, totalBets } = contract
-  const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
 
-  const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+  const ind = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? 1 : 0
-  const truePool = amount + contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
+  const { shares, amount } = bet
 
-  const totalBetsOutcome = totalBets[outcome] + amount
+  const newContract = {
-  const totalSharesOutcome = totalShares[outcome] + shares
+    ...contract,
+    totalShares: {
+      YES: totalShares.YES + ind * shares,
+      NO: totalShares.NO + (1 - ind) * shares,
+    },
+    pool: {
+      YES: pool.YES + ind * amount,
+      NO: pool.NO + (1 - ind) * amount,
+    },
+    totalBets: {
+      YES: totalBets.YES + ind * amount,
+      NO: totalBets.NO + (1 - ind) * amount,
+    },
+  }
 
-  if (totalBetsOutcome >= truePool)
+  return calculateStandardPayout(newContract, bet, bet.outcome)
-    return (amount / totalBetsOutcome) * truePool
-
-  const total = totalSharesOutcome - totalBetsOutcome
-  const winningsPool = truePool - totalBetsOutcome
-
-  return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
 }
 
 function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  const p =
+  const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
-    contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
+
   const weightedTotal =
     p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO
 
-  const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
-  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
 
   const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
 
@@ -100,8 +177,14 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal
 
   const weightedShareTotal =
-    p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.totalBets.YES) +
+    p *
-    (1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.totalBets.NO)
+      (contract.totalShares.YES -
+        contract.phantomShares.YES -
+        contract.totalBets.YES) +
+    (1 - p) *
+      (contract.totalShares.NO -
+        contract.phantomShares.NO -
+        contract.totalBets.NO)
 
   return (
     (1 - FEES) *
@@ -116,6 +199,7 @@ export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   throw new Error('Contract was not resolved')
 }
 
+// deprecated use MKT payout
 export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   const prob = getProbability(contract.pool)
   const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
@@ -123,44 +207,3 @@ export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
 
   return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
 }
-
-export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  const { shares, outcome } = bet
-
-  const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
-  const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
-  const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
-
-  const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
-
-  const shareValue =
-    outcome === 'YES'
-      ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
-        (n ** 2 +
-          s * y +
-          y ** 2 -
-          Math.sqrt(
-            n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
-          )) /
-        (2 * y)
-      : (y ** 2 +
-          s * n +
-          n ** 2 -
-          Math.sqrt(
-            y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
-          )) /
-        (2 * n)
-
-  const startPool = yesStart + noStart
-  const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
-
-  const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
-  const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
-
-  const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
-
-  const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
-
-  const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
-  return saleAmount
-}

common/contract.ts

@@ -11,7 +11,8 @@ export type Contract = {
   outcomeType: 'BINARY' // | 'MULTI' | 'interval' | 'date'
   // outcomes: ['YES', 'NO']
 
-  startPool: { YES: number; NO: number }
+  mechanism: 'dpm-2'
+  phantomShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
   pool: { YES: number; NO: number }
   totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
   totalBets: { YES: number; NO: number }

common/new-bet.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { Bet } from './bet'
+import { calculateShares, getProbability } from './calculate'
 import { Contract } from './contract'
 import { User } from './user'
 
@@ -16,10 +17,7 @@ export const getNewBetInfo = (
       ? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
       : { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount }
 
-  const shares =
+  const shares = calculateShares(contract.totalShares, amount, outcome)
-    outcome === 'YES'
-      ? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
-      : amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
 
   const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
 
@@ -35,8 +33,8 @@ export const getNewBetInfo = (
       ? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
       : { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount }
 
-  const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
+  const probBefore = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
-  const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
+  const probAfter = getProbability(newTotalShares)
 
   const newBet: Bet = {
     id: newBetId,

common/new-contract.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { calcStartPool } from './antes'
+
 import { Contract } from './contract'
 import { User } from './user'
 
@@ -12,10 +13,8 @@ export function getNewContract(
   ante?: number,
   closeTime?: number
 ) {
-  const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
+  const { sharesYes, sharesNo, poolYes, poolNo, phantomYes, phantomNo } =
-    initialProb,
+    calcStartPool(initialProb, ante)
-    ante
-  )
 
   const contract: Contract = {
     id,
@@ -29,10 +28,11 @@ export function getNewContract(
     question: question.trim(),
     description: description.trim(),
 
-    startPool: { YES: startYes, NO: startNo },
+    mechanism: 'dpm-2',
+    phantomShares: { YES: phantomYes, NO: phantomNo },
     pool: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
-    totalShares: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
+    totalShares: { YES: sharesYes, NO: sharesNo },
-    totalBets: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
+    totalBets: { YES: poolYes, NO: poolNo },
     isResolved: false,
 
     createdTime: Date.now(),

common/payouts.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { Bet } from './bet'
+import { getProbability } from './calculate'
 import { Contract } from './contract'
 import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
 
@@ -58,8 +59,7 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
   contract: Contract,
   bets: Bet[]
 ) => {
-  const p =
+  const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
-    contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
   console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', truePool)
 
   const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')

common/sell-bet.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 import { Bet } from './bet'
+import { calculateShareValue, getProbability } from './calculate'
 import { Contract } from './contract'
-import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from './fees'
+import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
 import { User } from './user'
 
 export const getSellBetInfo = (
@@ -12,40 +13,10 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
   const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet
 
   const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
-  const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
   const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
   const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
 
-  const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
+  const adjShareValue = calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
-
-  const shareValue =
-    outcome === 'YES'
-      ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
-        (n ** 2 +
-          s * y +
-          y ** 2 -
-          Math.sqrt(
-            n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
-          )) /
-        (2 * y)
-      : (y ** 2 +
-          s * n +
-          n ** 2 -
-          Math.sqrt(
-            y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
-          )) /
-        (2 * n)
-
-  const startPool = yesStart + noStart
-  const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
-
-  const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
-
-  const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
-
-  const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
-
-  const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
 
   const newPool =
     outcome === 'YES'
@@ -62,10 +33,11 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
       ? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
       : { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount }
 
-  const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
+  const probBefore = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+  const probAfter = getProbability(newTotalShares)
 
   const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
-  const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue
+  const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
 
   console.log(
     'SELL M$',
@@ -73,8 +45,6 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
     outcome,
     'for M$',
     saleAmount,
-    'M$/share:',
-    f,
     'creator fee: M$',
     creatorFee
   )

functions/src/create-contract.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { slugify } from '../../common/util/slugify'
 import { randomString } from '../../common/util/random-string'
 import { getNewContract } from '../../common/new-contract'
+import { getAnteBets } from '../../common/antes'
 
 export const createContract = functions
   .runWith({ minInstances: 1 })
@@ -64,6 +65,26 @@ export const createContract = functions
       if (ante) await chargeUser(creator.id, ante)
 
       await contractRef.create(contract)
+
+      if (ante) {
+        const yesBetDoc = firestore
+          .collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/bets`)
+          .doc()
+
+        const noBetDoc = firestore
+          .collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/bets`)
+          .doc()
+
+        const { yesBet, noBet } = getAnteBets(
+          creator,
+          contract,
+          yesBetDoc.id,
+          noBetDoc.id
+        )
+        await yesBetDoc.set(yesBet)
+        await noBetDoc.set(noBet)
+      }
+
       return { status: 'success', contract }
     }
   )

functions/src/markets.ts

@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ const getContractInfo = ({
   description,
   slug,
   pool,
-  startPool,
+  totalShares,
   volume7Days,
   volume24Hours,
   isResolved,
@@ -47,8 +47,8 @@ const getContractInfo = ({
     question,
     description,
     url: `https://manifold.markets/${creatorUsername}/${slug}`,
-    pool: pool.YES + pool.NO - startPool.YES - startPool.NO,
+    pool: pool.YES + pool.NO,
-    probability: getProbability(pool),
+    probability: getProbability(totalShares),
     volume7Days,
     volume24Hours,
     isResolved,

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -61,8 +61,7 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
       const bets = betsSnap.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Bet)
       const openBets = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
 
-      const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
+      const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
-      const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
 
       const payouts =
         outcome === 'CANCEL'

functions/src/scripts/migrate-to-dpm-2.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+import * as admin from 'firebase-admin'
+
+import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
+
+type DocRef = admin.firestore.DocumentReference
+
+// Generate your own private key, and set the path below:
+// https://console.firebase.google.com/u/0/project/mantic-markets/settings/serviceaccounts/adminsdk
+// const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/dev-mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-sir5m-b2d27f8970.json')
+const serviceAccount = require('../../../../../../Downloads/mantic-markets-firebase-adminsdk-1ep46-351a65eca3.json')
+
+admin.initializeApp({
+  credential: admin.credential.cert(serviceAccount),
+})
+const firestore = admin.firestore()
+
+async function recalculateContract(contractRef: DocRef, contract: Contract) {
+  const startPool = (contract as any).startPool as
+    | undefined
+    | { YES: number; NO: number }
+
+  if (contract.phantomShares || !startPool) return
+
+  const phantomAnte = startPool.YES + startPool.NO
+  const p = startPool.YES ** 2 / (startPool.YES ** 2 + startPool.NO ** 2)
+
+  const phantomShares = {
+    YES: Math.sqrt(p) * phantomAnte,
+    NO: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * phantomAnte,
+  }
+
+  const pool = {
+    YES: contract.pool.YES - startPool.YES,
+    NO: contract.pool.NO - startPool.NO,
+  }
+
+  const totalShares = {
+    YES: contract.totalShares.YES + phantomShares.YES,
+    NO: contract.totalShares.NO + phantomShares.NO,
+  }
+
+  const update: Partial<Contract> = {
+    mechanism: 'dpm-2',
+    phantomShares,
+    pool,
+    totalShares,
+  }
+
+  await contractRef.update(update)
+
+  console.log('updated', contract.slug, 'with', update)
+  console.log()
+}
+
+async function recalculateContractTotals() {
+  console.log('Migrating ante calculations to DPM-2')
+
+  const snapshot = await firestore.collection('contracts').get()
+  const contracts = snapshot.docs.map((doc) => doc.data() as Contract)
+
+  console.log('Loaded', contracts.length, 'contracts')
+
+  for (const contract of contracts) {
+    const contractRef = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contract.id}`)
+
+    await recalculateContract(contractRef, contract)
+  }
+}
+
+if (require.main === module)
+  recalculateContractTotals().then(() => process.exit())

web/components/bet-panel.tsx

@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ import {
   calculateShares,
   getProbabilityAfterBet,
   calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet,
+  calculateEstimatedWinnings,
 } from '../../common/calculate'
 import { firebaseLogin } from '../lib/firebase/users'
 import { OutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
@@ -84,18 +85,30 @@ export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
 
   const betDisabled = isSubmitting || !betAmount || error
 
-  const initialProb = getProbability(contract.pool)
+  const initialProb = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
+
   const resultProb = getProbabilityAfterBet(
-    contract.pool,
+    contract.totalShares,
     betChoice,
     betAmount ?? 0
   )
-  const shares = calculateShares(contract.pool, betAmount ?? 0, betChoice)
 
-  const estimatedWinnings = Math.floor(shares)
+  const shares = calculateShares(
+    contract.totalShares,
+    betAmount ?? 0,
+    betChoice
+  )
+
+  const estimatedWinnings = calculateEstimatedWinnings(
+    contract.totalShares,
+    shares,
+    betChoice
+  )
+
   const estimatedReturn = betAmount
     ? (estimatedWinnings - betAmount) / betAmount
     : 0
+
   const estimatedReturnPercent = (estimatedReturn * 100).toFixed() + '%'
 
   return (

web/components/bets-list.tsx

@@ -14,7 +14,11 @@ import {
 } from '../lib/util/format'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
-import { Contract, getContractFromId, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  getContractFromId,
+  contractPath,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { UserLink } from './user-page'
 import {
@@ -130,7 +134,7 @@ function MyContractBets(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
       <Row className="flex-wrap gap-4">
         <Col className="flex-[2] gap-1">
           <Row className="mr-6">
-            <Link href={path(contract)}>
+            <Link href={contractPath(contract)}>
               <a
                 className="font-medium text-indigo-700 hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2"
                 onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}

web/components/contract-card.tsx

@@ -4,7 +4,11 @@ import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
 import { formatMoney } from '../lib/util/format'
 import { UserLink } from './user-page'
 import { Linkify } from './linkify'
-import { Contract, compute, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  contractMetrics,
+  contractPath,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { parseTags } from '../lib/util/parse'
 import dayjs from 'dayjs'
@@ -16,10 +20,10 @@ export function ContractCard(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, showHotVolume } = props
   const { question, resolution } = contract
-  const { probPercent } = compute(contract)
+  const { probPercent } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   return (
-    <Link href={path(contract)}>
+    <Link href={contractPath(contract)}>
       <a>
         <li className="col-span-1 bg-white hover:bg-gray-100 shadow-md rounded-lg divide-y divide-gray-200">
           <div className="card">
@@ -99,7 +103,7 @@ export function AbbrContractDetails(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, showHotVolume } = props
   const { volume24Hours } = contract
-  const { truePool } = compute(contract)
+  const { truePool } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   return (
     <Col className={clsx('text-sm text-gray-500 gap-2')}>
@@ -124,7 +128,7 @@ export function AbbrContractDetails(props: {
 export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
   const { contract } = props
   const { question, description, closeTime } = contract
-  const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = compute(contract)
+  const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   const tags = parseTags(`${question} ${description}`).map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
 
@@ -171,7 +175,7 @@ export function ContractDetails(props: { contract: Contract }) {
 // String version of the above, to send to the OpenGraph image generator
 export function contractTextDetails(contract: Contract) {
   const { question, description, closeTime } = contract
-  const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = compute(contract)
+  const { truePool, createdDate, resolvedDate } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   const tags = parseTags(`${question} ${description}`).map((tag) => `#${tag}`)
 

web/components/contract-feed.tsx

@@ -17,9 +17,9 @@ import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import relativeTime from 'dayjs/plugin/relativeTime'
 import { OutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
 import {
-  compute,
+  contractMetrics,
   Contract,
-  path,
+  contractPath,
   updateContract,
 } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
@@ -205,7 +205,7 @@ export function ContractDescription(props: {
 
 function FeedQuestion(props: { contract: Contract }) {
   const { contract } = props
-  const { probPercent } = compute(contract)
+  const { probPercent } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   return (
     <>
@@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ function FeedQuestion(props: { contract: Contract }) {
         </div>
         <Col className="items-start sm:flex-row justify-between gap-2 sm:gap-4 mb-4 mr-2">
           <SiteLink
-            href={path(contract)}
+            href={contractPath(contract)}
             className="text-lg sm:text-xl text-indigo-700"
           >
             {contract.question}

web/components/contract-overview.tsx

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 import {
-  compute,
+  contractMetrics,
   Contract,
   deleteContract,
-  path,
+  contractPath,
 } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
 }) => {
   const { contract, className } = props
   const { resolution, creatorId, creatorName } = contract
-  const { probPercent, truePool } = compute(contract)
+  const { probPercent, truePool } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   const user = useUser()
   const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
       ? `Resolved ${resolution}!`
       : `Resolved ${resolution} by ${creatorName}:`
     : `Currently ${probPercent} chance, place your bets here:`
-  const url = `https://manifold.markets${path(contract)}`
+  const url = `https://manifold.markets${contractPath(contract)}`
   const tweetText = `${tweetQuestion}\n\n${tweetDescription}\n\n${url}`
 
   return (

web/components/contract-prob-graph.tsx

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 import { DatumValue } from '@nivo/core'
 import { ResponsiveLine } from '@nivo/line'
 import dayjs from 'dayjs'
+import { getProbability } from '../../common/calculate'
 import { useBets } from '../hooks/use-bets'
 import { useWindowSize } from '../hooks/use-window-size'
 import { Contract } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 
 export function ContractProbGraph(props: { contract: Contract }) {
   const { contract } = props
-  const { id, startPool, resolutionTime } = contract
+  const { id, phantomShares, resolutionTime } = contract
 
   let bets = useBets(id)
   if (bets === 'loading') bets = []
 
-  const startProb =
+  const startProb = getProbability(phantomShares)
-    startPool.YES ** 2 / (startPool.YES ** 2 + startPool.NO ** 2)
 
   const times = [
     contract.createdTime,

web/components/contracts-list.tsx

@@ -3,7 +3,11 @@ import Link from 'next/link'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 
-import { compute, Contract, listContracts } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import {
+  contractMetrics,
+  Contract,
+  listContracts,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { User } from '../lib/firebase/users'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { SiteLink } from './site-link'
@@ -189,7 +193,9 @@ export function SearchableGrid(props: {
   if (sort === 'newest' || sort === 'resolved' || sort === 'all') {
     matches.sort((a, b) => b.createdTime - a.createdTime)
   } else if (sort === 'most-traded') {
-    matches.sort((a, b) => compute(b).truePool - compute(a).truePool)
+    matches.sort(
+      (a, b) => contractMetrics(b).truePool - contractMetrics(a).truePool
+    )
   } else if (sort === 'creator' || sort === 'tag') {
     matches.sort((a, b) => b.volume7Days - a.volume7Days)
   }

web/components/profile-menu.tsx

@@ -59,6 +59,7 @@ function getNavigationOptions(user: User, options: { mobile: boolean }) {
       name: 'Discord',
       href: 'https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh',
     },
+    ...(mobile ? [{ name: 'About', href: '/about' }] : []),
     {
       name: 'About',
       href: '/about',

web/lib/firebase/contracts.ts

@@ -18,24 +18,36 @@ import {
 import { app } from './init'
 import { getValues, listenForValues } from './utils'
 import { Contract } from '../../../common/contract'
+import { getProbability } from '../../../common/calculate'
 export type { Contract }
 
-export function path(contract: Contract) {
+export function contractPath(contract: Contract) {
   // For now, derive username from creatorName
   return `/${contract.creatorUsername}/${contract.slug}`
 }
 
-export function compute(contract: Contract) {
+export function contractMetrics(contract: Contract) {
-  const { pool, startPool, createdTime, resolutionTime, isResolved } = contract
+  const {
-  const truePool = pool.YES + pool.NO - startPool.YES - startPool.NO
+    pool,
-  const prob = pool.YES ** 2 / (pool.YES ** 2 + pool.NO ** 2)
+    phantomShares,
+    totalShares,
+    createdTime,
+    resolutionTime,
+    isResolved,
+  } = contract
+
+  const truePool = pool.YES + pool.NO
+  const prob = getProbability(totalShares)
   const probPercent = Math.round(prob * 100) + '%'
-  const startProb =
+
-    startPool.YES ** 2 / (startPool.YES ** 2 + startPool.NO ** 2)
+  const startProb = getProbability(phantomShares)
+
   const createdDate = dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D')
+
   const resolvedDate = isResolved
     ? dayjs(resolutionTime).format('MMM D')
     : undefined
+
   return { truePool, probPercent, startProb, createdDate, resolvedDate }
 }
 

web/lib/firebase/init.ts

@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@ import { getFirestore } from '@firebase/firestore'
 import { initializeApp } from 'firebase/app'
 
 // TODO: Reenable this when we have a way to set the Firebase db in dev
-// export const isProd = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production'
+export const isProd = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production'
-export const isProd = true
+// export const isProd = true
 
 const firebaseConfig = isProd
   ? {

web/pages/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ import { Title } from '../../components/title'
 import { Spacer } from '../../components/layout/spacer'
 import { User } from '../../lib/firebase/users'
 import {
-  compute,
+  contractMetrics,
   Contract,
   getContractFromSlug,
 } from '../../lib/firebase/contracts'
@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ export default function ContractPage(props: {
     !isResolved && (!contract.closeTime || contract.closeTime > Date.now())
   const allowResolve = !isResolved && isCreator && !!user
 
-  const { probPercent } = compute(contract)
+  const { probPercent } = contractMetrics(contract)
 
   const description = resolution
     ? `Resolved ${resolution}. ${contract.description}`

web/pages/create.tsx

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import Textarea from 'react-expanding-textarea'
 import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
 import { Title } from '../components/title'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
-import { Contract, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import { Contract, contractPath } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
 import { AdvancedPanel } from '../components/advanced-panel'
 import { createContract } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ export default function NewContract() {
       return
     }
 
-    await router.push(path(result.contract as Contract))
+    await router.push(contractPath(result.contract as Contract))
   }
 
   // const descriptionPlaceholder = `e.g. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 2, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET, Paxlovid (also known under PF-07321332)...`

web/pages/make-predictions.tsx

@@ -10,7 +10,11 @@ import { Page } from '../components/page'
 import { Title } from '../components/title'
 import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
 import { createContract } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
-import { compute, Contract, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
+import {
+  contractMetrics,
+  Contract,
+  contractPath,
+} from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 
 type Prediction = {
   question: string
@@ -20,12 +24,12 @@ type Prediction = {
 }
 
 function toPrediction(contract: Contract): Prediction {
-  const { startProb } = compute(contract)
+  const { startProb } = contractMetrics(contract)
   return {
     question: contract.question,
     description: contract.description,
     initialProb: startProb * 100,
-    createdUrl: path(contract),
+    createdUrl: contractPath(contract),
   }
 }