formatting
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@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
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export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 200;
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export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 200
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export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante?: number) => {
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export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante?: number) => {
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const p = initialProbInt / 100.0;
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const p = initialProbInt / 100.0
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const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + (ante || 0);
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const totalAnte = PHANTOM_ANTE + (ante || 0)
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const poolYes =
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const poolYes =
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p === 0.5
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p === 0.5
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? p * totalAnte
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? p * totalAnte
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: -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p);
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: -(totalAnte * (-p + Math.sqrt((-1 + p) * -p))) / (-1 + 2 * p)
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const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes;
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const poolNo = totalAnte - poolYes
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const f = PHANTOM_ANTE / totalAnte;
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const f = PHANTOM_ANTE / totalAnte
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const startYes = f * poolYes;
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const startYes = f * poolYes
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const startNo = f * poolNo;
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const startNo = f * poolNo
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return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo };
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return { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo }
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};
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}
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@ -1,22 +1,22 @@
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export type Bet = {
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export type Bet = {
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id: string;
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id: string
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userId: string;
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userId: string
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contractId: string;
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contractId: string
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amount: number; // bet size; negative if SELL bet
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amount: number // bet size; negative if SELL bet
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outcome: "YES" | "NO";
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
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shares: number; // dynamic parimutuel pool weight; negative if SELL bet
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shares: number // dynamic parimutuel pool weight; negative if SELL bet
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probBefore: number;
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probBefore: number
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probAfter: number;
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probAfter: number
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sale?: {
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sale?: {
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amount: number; // amount user makes from sale
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amount: number // amount user makes from sale
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betId: string; // id of bet being sold
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betId: string // id of bet being sold
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// TODO: add sale time?
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// TODO: add sale time?
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};
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}
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isSold?: boolean; // true if this BUY bet has been sold
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isSold?: boolean // true if this BUY bet has been sold
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createdTime: number;
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createdTime: number
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};
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}
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@ -1,140 +1,140 @@
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import { Bet } from "./bet";
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import { Bet } from './bet'
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import { Contract } from "./contract";
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import { Contract } from './contract'
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import { FEES } from "./fees";
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import { FEES } from './fees'
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export const blah = () => 999;
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export const blah = () => 999
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export const getProbability = (pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) => {
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export const getProbability = (pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) => {
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const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO];
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const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
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const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2);
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const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2)
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const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2);
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const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2)
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return numerator / denominator;
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return numerator / denominator
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};
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}
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export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
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export function getProbabilityAfterBet(
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pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
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pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
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outcome: "YES" | "NO",
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
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bet: number
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bet: number
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) {
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) {
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const [YES, NO] = [
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const [YES, NO] = [
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pool.YES + (outcome === "YES" ? bet : 0),
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pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0),
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pool.NO + (outcome === "NO" ? bet : 0),
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pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0),
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];
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]
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return getProbability({ YES, NO });
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return getProbability({ YES, NO })
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}
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}
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export function calculateShares(
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export function calculateShares(
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pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
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pool: { YES: number; NO: number },
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bet: number,
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bet: number,
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betChoice: "YES" | "NO"
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betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO'
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) {
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) {
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const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO];
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const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO]
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return betChoice === "YES"
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return betChoice === 'YES'
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? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool)
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? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool)
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: bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool);
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: bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool)
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}
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}
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export function calculatePayout(
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export function calculatePayout(
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contract: Contract,
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contract: Contract,
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bet: Bet,
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bet: Bet,
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outcome: "YES" | "NO" | "CANCEL" | "MKT"
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
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) {
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) {
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const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet;
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const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
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if (outcome === "CANCEL") return amount;
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if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
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if (outcome === "MKT") return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet);
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if (outcome === 'MKT') return calculateMktPayout(contract, bet)
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if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0;
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if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
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const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract;
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const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
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if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0;
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if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO;
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
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const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool;
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const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
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if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
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if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
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return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool;
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return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
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const total = totalShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome];
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const total = totalShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
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const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome];
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const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]
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return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool);
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return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
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}
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}
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export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const { amount, outcome, shares } = bet;
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const { amount, outcome, shares } = bet
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const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract;
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const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO;
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
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const truePool = amount + contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool;
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const truePool = amount + contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
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const totalBetsOutcome = totalBets[outcome] + amount;
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const totalBetsOutcome = totalBets[outcome] + amount
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const totalSharesOutcome = totalShares[outcome] + shares;
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const totalSharesOutcome = totalShares[outcome] + shares
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if (totalBetsOutcome >= truePool)
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if (totalBetsOutcome >= truePool)
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return (amount / totalBetsOutcome) * truePool;
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return (amount / totalBetsOutcome) * truePool
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const total = totalSharesOutcome - totalBetsOutcome;
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const total = totalSharesOutcome - totalBetsOutcome
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const winningsPool = truePool - totalBetsOutcome;
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const winningsPool = truePool - totalBetsOutcome
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return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool);
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return (1 - FEES) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
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}
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}
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function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const p =
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const p =
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contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2);
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contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
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const weightedTotal =
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const weightedTotal =
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p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO;
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p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO;
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
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const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool;
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const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
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const betP = bet.outcome === "YES" ? p : 1 - p;
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const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
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if (weightedTotal >= truePool) {
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if (weightedTotal >= truePool) {
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return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool;
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return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool
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}
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}
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const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal;
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const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal
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const weightedShareTotal =
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const weightedShareTotal =
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p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.totalBets.YES) +
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p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.totalBets.YES) +
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(1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.totalBets.NO);
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(1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.totalBets.NO)
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return (
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return (
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(1 - FEES) *
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(1 - FEES) *
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(betP * bet.amount +
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(betP * bet.amount +
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((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool)
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((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool)
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);
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)
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}
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}
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export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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if (contract.resolution)
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if (contract.resolution)
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return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution);
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return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
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throw new Error("Contract was not resolved");
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throw new Error('Contract was not resolved')
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}
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}
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export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const prob = getProbability(contract.pool);
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const prob = getProbability(contract.pool)
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const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, "YES");
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const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
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const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, "NO");
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const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
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return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout;
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return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
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}
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}
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export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const { shares, outcome } = bet;
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const { shares, outcome } = bet
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool;
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
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const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool;
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const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares;
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
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const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares];
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const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
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const shareValue =
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const shareValue =
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outcome === "YES"
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outcome === 'YES'
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? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
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? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
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(n ** 2 +
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(n ** 2 +
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s * y +
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s * y +
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@ -149,18 +149,18 @@ export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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Math.sqrt(
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Math.sqrt(
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y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
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y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
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)) /
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)) /
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(2 * n);
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(2 * n)
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const startPool = yesStart + noStart;
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const startPool = yesStart + noStart
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const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool;
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const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
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const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2);
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const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
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const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares);
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const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
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const myPool = outcome === "YES" ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart;
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const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
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const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool);
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const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
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const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue;
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const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
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return saleAmount;
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return saleAmount
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}
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}
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@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
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// Currently, comments are created after the bet, not atomically with the bet.
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// Currently, comments are created after the bet, not atomically with the bet.
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// They're uniquely identified by the pair contractId/betId.
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// They're uniquely identified by the pair contractId/betId.
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export type Comment = {
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export type Comment = {
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contractId: string;
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contractId: string
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betId: string;
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betId: string
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text: string;
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text: string
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createdTime: number;
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createdTime: number
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// Denormalized, for rendering comments
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// Denormalized, for rendering comments
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userName?: string;
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userName?: string
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userUsername?: string;
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userUsername?: string
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userAvatarUrl?: string;
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userAvatarUrl?: string
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};
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}
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@ -1,29 +1,29 @@
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export type Contract = {
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export type Contract = {
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id: string;
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id: string
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slug: string; // auto-generated; must be unique
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slug: string // auto-generated; must be unique
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creatorId: string;
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creatorId: string
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creatorName: string;
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creatorName: string
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creatorUsername: string;
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creatorUsername: string
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question: string;
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question: string
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description: string; // More info about what the contract is about
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description: string // More info about what the contract is about
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outcomeType: "BINARY"; // | 'MULTI' | 'interval' | 'date'
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outcomeType: 'BINARY' // | 'MULTI' | 'interval' | 'date'
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// outcomes: ['YES', 'NO']
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// outcomes: ['YES', 'NO']
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startPool: { YES: number; NO: number };
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startPool: { YES: number; NO: number }
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pool: { YES: number; NO: number };
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pool: { YES: number; NO: number }
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totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number };
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totalShares: { YES: number; NO: number }
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totalBets: { YES: number; NO: number };
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totalBets: { YES: number; NO: number }
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createdTime: number; // Milliseconds since epoch
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createdTime: number // Milliseconds since epoch
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lastUpdatedTime: number; // If the question or description was changed
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lastUpdatedTime: number // If the question or description was changed
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closeTime?: number; // When no more trading is allowed
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closeTime?: number // When no more trading is allowed
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isResolved: boolean;
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isResolved: boolean
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resolutionTime?: number; // When the contract creator resolved the market
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resolutionTime?: number // When the contract creator resolved the market
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resolution?: "YES" | "NO" | "CANCEL"; // Chosen by creator; must be one of outcomes
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resolution?: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' // Chosen by creator; must be one of outcomes
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volume24Hours: number;
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volume24Hours: number
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volume7Days: number;
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volume7Days: number
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};
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}
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@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
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export const PLATFORM_FEE = 0.01; // == 1%
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export const PLATFORM_FEE = 0.01 // == 1%
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export const CREATOR_FEE = 0.01;
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export const CREATOR_FEE = 0.01
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export const FEES = PLATFORM_FEE + CREATOR_FEE;
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export const FEES = PLATFORM_FEE + CREATOR_FEE
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@ -1,42 +1,42 @@
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import { Bet } from "./bet";
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import { Bet } from './bet'
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import { Contract } from "./contract";
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import { Contract } from './contract'
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import { User } from "./user";
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import { User } from './user'
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export const getNewBetInfo = (
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export const getNewBetInfo = (
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user: User,
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user: User,
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outcome: "YES" | "NO",
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outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
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amount: number,
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amount: number,
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contract: Contract,
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contract: Contract,
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newBetId: string
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newBetId: string
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) => {
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) => {
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||||||
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool;
|
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newPool =
|
const newPool =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
|
? { YES: yesPool + amount, NO: noPool }
|
||||||
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount };
|
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool + amount }
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const shares =
|
const shares =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
|
? amount + (amount * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + amount * yesPool)
|
||||||
: amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool);
|
: amount + (amount * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + amount * noPool)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares;
|
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newTotalShares =
|
const newTotalShares =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? { YES: yesShares + shares, NO: noShares }
|
? { YES: yesShares + shares, NO: noShares }
|
||||||
: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares + shares };
|
: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares + shares }
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets;
|
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newTotalBets =
|
const newTotalBets =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
|
? { YES: yesBets + amount, NO: noBets }
|
||||||
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount };
|
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets + amount }
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2);
|
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
|
||||||
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2);
|
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newBet: Bet = {
|
const newBet: Bet = {
|
||||||
id: newBetId,
|
id: newBetId,
|
||||||
|
@ -48,9 +48,9 @@ export const getNewBetInfo = (
|
||||||
probBefore,
|
probBefore,
|
||||||
probAfter,
|
probAfter,
|
||||||
createdTime: Date.now(),
|
createdTime: Date.now(),
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newBalance = user.balance - amount;
|
const newBalance = user.balance - amount
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets, newBalance };
|
return { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets, newBalance }
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
|
@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
|
||||||
import { calcStartPool } from "./antes";
|
import { calcStartPool } from './antes'
|
||||||
import { Contract } from "./contract";
|
import { Contract } from './contract'
|
||||||
import { User } from "./user";
|
import { User } from './user'
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export function getNewContract(
|
export function getNewContract(
|
||||||
id: string,
|
id: string,
|
||||||
|
@ -15,12 +15,12 @@ export function getNewContract(
|
||||||
const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
|
const { startYes, startNo, poolYes, poolNo } = calcStartPool(
|
||||||
initialProb,
|
initialProb,
|
||||||
ante
|
ante
|
||||||
);
|
)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const contract: Contract = {
|
const contract: Contract = {
|
||||||
id,
|
id,
|
||||||
slug,
|
slug,
|
||||||
outcomeType: "BINARY",
|
outcomeType: 'BINARY',
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
creatorId: creator.id,
|
creatorId: creator.id,
|
||||||
creatorName: creator.name,
|
creatorName: creator.name,
|
||||||
|
@ -40,9 +40,9 @@ export function getNewContract(
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
volume24Hours: 0,
|
volume24Hours: 0,
|
||||||
volume7Days: 0,
|
volume7Days: 0,
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (closeTime) contract.closeTime = closeTime;
|
if (closeTime) contract.closeTime = closeTime
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return contract;
|
return contract
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
|
@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
|
||||||
import { Bet } from "./bet";
|
import { Bet } from './bet'
|
||||||
import { Contract } from "./contract";
|
import { Contract } from './contract'
|
||||||
import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from "./fees";
|
import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export const getCancelPayouts = (truePool: number, bets: Bet[]) => {
|
export const getCancelPayouts = (truePool: number, bets: Bet[]) => {
|
||||||
console.log("resolved N/A, pool M$", truePool);
|
console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', truePool)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const betSum = sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount);
|
const betSum = sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return bets.map((bet) => ({
|
return bets.map((bet) => ({
|
||||||
userId: bet.userId,
|
userId: bet.userId,
|
||||||
payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * truePool,
|
payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * truePool,
|
||||||
}));
|
}))
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export const getStandardPayouts = (
|
export const getStandardPayouts = (
|
||||||
outcome: string,
|
outcome: string,
|
||||||
|
@ -19,26 +19,26 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
|
||||||
contract: Contract,
|
contract: Contract,
|
||||||
bets: Bet[]
|
bets: Bet[]
|
||||||
) => {
|
) => {
|
||||||
const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === "YES");
|
const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
|
||||||
const winningBets = outcome === "YES" ? yesBets : noBets;
|
const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const betSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount);
|
const betSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (betSum >= truePool) return getCancelPayouts(truePool, winningBets);
|
if (betSum >= truePool) return getCancelPayouts(truePool, winningBets)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool;
|
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool
|
||||||
console.log(
|
console.log(
|
||||||
"resolved",
|
'resolved',
|
||||||
outcome,
|
outcome,
|
||||||
"pool: M$",
|
'pool: M$',
|
||||||
truePool,
|
truePool,
|
||||||
"creator fee: M$",
|
'creator fee: M$',
|
||||||
creatorPayout
|
creatorPayout
|
||||||
);
|
)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const shareDifferenceSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount);
|
const shareDifferenceSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const winningsPool = truePool - betSum;
|
const winningsPool = truePool - betSum
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
|
const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
|
||||||
userId: bet.userId,
|
userId: bet.userId,
|
||||||
|
@ -46,12 +46,12 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
|
||||||
(1 - FEES) *
|
(1 - FEES) *
|
||||||
(bet.amount +
|
(bet.amount +
|
||||||
((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) * winningsPool),
|
((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) * winningsPool),
|
||||||
}));
|
}))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return winnerPayouts.concat([
|
return winnerPayouts.concat([
|
||||||
{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
|
{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
|
||||||
]); // add creator fee
|
]) // add creator fee
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export const getMktPayouts = (
|
export const getMktPayouts = (
|
||||||
truePool: number,
|
truePool: number,
|
||||||
|
@ -59,30 +59,30 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
|
||||||
bets: Bet[]
|
bets: Bet[]
|
||||||
) => {
|
) => {
|
||||||
const p =
|
const p =
|
||||||
contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2);
|
contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
|
||||||
console.log("Resolved MKT at p=", p, "pool: $M", truePool);
|
console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', truePool)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === "YES");
|
const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const weightedBetTotal =
|
const weightedBetTotal =
|
||||||
p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) +
|
p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) +
|
||||||
(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount);
|
(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
if (weightedBetTotal >= truePool) {
|
if (weightedBetTotal >= truePool) {
|
||||||
return bets.map((bet) => ({
|
return bets.map((bet) => ({
|
||||||
userId: bet.userId,
|
userId: bet.userId,
|
||||||
payout:
|
payout:
|
||||||
(((bet.outcome === "YES" ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) /
|
(((bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) /
|
||||||
weightedBetTotal) *
|
weightedBetTotal) *
|
||||||
truePool,
|
truePool,
|
||||||
}));
|
}))
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const winningsPool = truePool - weightedBetTotal;
|
const winningsPool = truePool - weightedBetTotal
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const weightedShareTotal =
|
const weightedShareTotal =
|
||||||
p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) +
|
p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) +
|
||||||
(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount);
|
(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
|
const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
|
||||||
userId: bet.userId,
|
userId: bet.userId,
|
||||||
|
@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
|
||||||
(1 - FEES) *
|
(1 - FEES) *
|
||||||
(p * bet.amount +
|
(p * bet.amount +
|
||||||
((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool),
|
((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool),
|
||||||
}));
|
}))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
|
const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
|
||||||
userId: bet.userId,
|
userId: bet.userId,
|
||||||
|
@ -99,30 +99,30 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
|
||||||
((1 - p) * bet.amount +
|
((1 - p) * bet.amount +
|
||||||
(((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
|
(((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
|
||||||
winningsPool),
|
winningsPool),
|
||||||
}));
|
}))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool;
|
const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * truePool
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [
|
return [
|
||||||
...yesPayouts,
|
...yesPayouts,
|
||||||
...noPayouts,
|
...noPayouts,
|
||||||
{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
|
{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
|
||||||
];
|
]
|
||||||
};
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const partition = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => boolean) => {
|
|
||||||
const yes = [];
|
|
||||||
const no = [];
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
for (let t of array) {
|
|
||||||
if (f(t)) yes.push(t);
|
|
||||||
else no.push(t);
|
|
||||||
}
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return [yes, no] as [T[], T[]];
|
const partition = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => boolean) => {
|
||||||
};
|
const yes = []
|
||||||
|
const no = []
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
for (let t of array) {
|
||||||
|
if (f(t)) yes.push(t)
|
||||||
|
else no.push(t)
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
return [yes, no] as [T[], T[]]
|
||||||
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const sumBy = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => number) => {
|
const sumBy = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => number) => {
|
||||||
const values = array.map(f);
|
const values = array.map(f)
|
||||||
return values.reduce((prev, cur) => prev + cur, 0);
|
return values.reduce((prev, cur) => prev + cur, 0)
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
|
@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
|
||||||
import { Bet } from "./bet";
|
import { Bet } from './bet'
|
||||||
import { Contract } from "./contract";
|
import { Contract } from './contract'
|
||||||
import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from "./fees";
|
import { CREATOR_FEE, PLATFORM_FEE } from './fees'
|
||||||
import { User } from "./user";
|
import { User } from './user'
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
||||||
user: User,
|
user: User,
|
||||||
|
@ -9,17 +9,17 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
||||||
contract: Contract,
|
contract: Contract,
|
||||||
newBetId: string
|
newBetId: string
|
||||||
) => {
|
) => {
|
||||||
const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet;
|
const { id: betId, amount, shares, outcome } = bet
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool;
|
const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
|
||||||
const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool;
|
const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
|
||||||
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares;
|
const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
|
||||||
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets;
|
const { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets } = contract.totalBets
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares];
|
const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const shareValue =
|
const shareValue =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
|
? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
|
||||||
(n ** 2 +
|
(n ** 2 +
|
||||||
s * y +
|
s * y +
|
||||||
|
@ -34,50 +34,50 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
||||||
Math.sqrt(
|
Math.sqrt(
|
||||||
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
|
y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
|
||||||
)) /
|
)) /
|
||||||
(2 * n);
|
(2 * n)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const startPool = yesStart + noStart;
|
const startPool = yesStart + noStart
|
||||||
const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool;
|
const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2);
|
const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares);
|
const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const myPool = outcome === "YES" ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart;
|
const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool);
|
const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newPool =
|
const newPool =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? { YES: yesPool - adjShareValue, NO: noPool }
|
? { YES: yesPool - adjShareValue, NO: noPool }
|
||||||
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool - adjShareValue };
|
: { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool - adjShareValue }
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newTotalShares =
|
const newTotalShares =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? { YES: yesShares - shares, NO: noShares }
|
? { YES: yesShares - shares, NO: noShares }
|
||||||
: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares - shares };
|
: { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares - shares }
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newTotalBets =
|
const newTotalBets =
|
||||||
outcome === "YES"
|
outcome === 'YES'
|
||||||
? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
|
? { YES: yesBets - amount, NO: noBets }
|
||||||
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount };
|
: { YES: yesBets, NO: noBets - amount }
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2);
|
const probAfter = newPool.YES ** 2 / (newPool.YES ** 2 + newPool.NO ** 2)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue;
|
const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
|
||||||
const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue;
|
const saleAmount = (1 - CREATOR_FEE - PLATFORM_FEE) * adjShareValue
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
console.log(
|
console.log(
|
||||||
"SELL M$",
|
'SELL M$',
|
||||||
amount,
|
amount,
|
||||||
outcome,
|
outcome,
|
||||||
"for M$",
|
'for M$',
|
||||||
saleAmount,
|
saleAmount,
|
||||||
"M$/share:",
|
'M$/share:',
|
||||||
f,
|
f,
|
||||||
"creator fee: M$",
|
'creator fee: M$',
|
||||||
creatorFee
|
creatorFee
|
||||||
);
|
)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newBet: Bet = {
|
const newBet: Bet = {
|
||||||
id: newBetId,
|
id: newBetId,
|
||||||
|
@ -93,9 +93,9 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
||||||
amount: saleAmount,
|
amount: saleAmount,
|
||||||
betId,
|
betId,
|
||||||
},
|
},
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
const newBalance = user.balance + saleAmount;
|
const newBalance = user.balance + saleAmount
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
return {
|
return {
|
||||||
newBet,
|
newBet,
|
||||||
|
@ -104,5 +104,5 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
||||||
newTotalBets,
|
newTotalBets,
|
||||||
newBalance,
|
newBalance,
|
||||||
creatorFee,
|
creatorFee,
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
|
@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
|
||||||
export type User = {
|
export type User = {
|
||||||
id: string;
|
id: string
|
||||||
email: string;
|
email: string
|
||||||
name: string;
|
name: string
|
||||||
username: string;
|
username: string
|
||||||
avatarUrl: string;
|
avatarUrl: string
|
||||||
balance: number;
|
balance: number
|
||||||
createdTime: number;
|
createdTime: number
|
||||||
lastUpdatedTime: number;
|
lastUpdatedTime: number
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
|
@ -1 +1 @@
|
||||||
export const randomString = () => Math.random().toString(16).substr(2, 14);
|
export const randomString = () => Math.random().toString(16).substr(2, 14)
|
||||||
|
|
|
@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
|
||||||
export const slugify = (
|
export const slugify = (
|
||||||
text: string,
|
text: string,
|
||||||
separator = "-",
|
separator = '-',
|
||||||
maxLength = 35
|
maxLength = 35
|
||||||
): string => {
|
): string => {
|
||||||
return text
|
return text
|
||||||
.toString()
|
.toString()
|
||||||
.normalize("NFD") // split an accented letter in the base letter and the acent
|
.normalize('NFD') // split an accented letter in the base letter and the acent
|
||||||
.replace(/[\u0300-\u036f]/g, "") // remove all previously split accents
|
.replace(/[\u0300-\u036f]/g, '') // remove all previously split accents
|
||||||
.toLowerCase()
|
.toLowerCase()
|
||||||
.trim()
|
.trim()
|
||||||
.replace(/[^a-z0-9 ]/g, "") // remove all chars not letters, numbers and spaces (to be replaced)
|
.replace(/[^a-z0-9 ]/g, '') // remove all chars not letters, numbers and spaces (to be replaced)
|
||||||
.replace(/\s+/g, separator)
|
.replace(/\s+/g, separator)
|
||||||
.substring(0, maxLength)
|
.substring(0, maxLength)
|
||||||
.replace(new RegExp(separator + "+$", "g"), ""); // remove terminal separators
|
.replace(new RegExp(separator + '+$', 'g'), '') // remove terminal separators
|
||||||
};
|
}
|
||||||
|
|
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user