Sell bet UI
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@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ import {
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getProbability,
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calculateShares,
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getProbabilityAfterBet,
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} from '../lib/calculation/contract'
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} from '../lib/calculate'
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import { firebaseLogin } from '../lib/firebase/users'
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export function BetPanel(props: { contract: Contract; className?: string }) {
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@ -13,11 +13,13 @@ import { Row } from './layout/row'
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import { UserLink } from './user-page'
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import {
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calculatePayout,
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calculateSaleAmount,
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currentValue,
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resolvedPayout,
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} from '../lib/calculation/contract'
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} from '../lib/calculate'
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import clsx from 'clsx'
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import { cloudFunction } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
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import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
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export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
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const { user } = props
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@ -229,6 +231,11 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
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}) {
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const { contract, bets, className } = props
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const [sales, buys] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.sale)
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const salesDict = _.fromPairs(
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sales.map((sale) => [sale.sale?.betId ?? '', sale])
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)
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const { isResolved } = contract
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return (
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@ -238,16 +245,21 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
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<tr className="p-2">
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<th>Date</th>
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<th>Outcome</th>
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<th>Bet</th>
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<th>Amount</th>
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<th>Probability</th>
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{!isResolved && <th>Est. max payout</th>}
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<th>{isResolved ? <>Payout</> : <>Current value</>}</th>
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{!isResolved && <th></th>}
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<th></th>
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</tr>
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</thead>
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<tbody>
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{bets.map((bet) => (
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<BetRow key={bet.id} bet={bet} contract={contract} />
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{buys.map((bet) => (
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<BetRow
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key={bet.id}
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bet={bet}
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sale={salesDict[bet.id]}
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contract={contract}
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/>
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))}
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</tbody>
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</table>
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@ -255,8 +267,8 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
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)
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}
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function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
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const { bet, contract } = props
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function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract; sale?: Bet }) {
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const { bet, sale, contract } = props
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const {
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amount,
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outcome,
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@ -264,14 +276,13 @@ function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
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probBefore,
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probAfter,
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shares,
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sale,
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isSold,
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} = bet
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const { isResolved } = contract
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return (
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<tr>
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<td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, H:mma')}</td>
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<td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
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<td>
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<OutcomeLabel outcome={outcome} />
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</td>
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@ -281,25 +292,39 @@ function BetRow(props: { bet: Bet; contract: Contract }) {
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</td>
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{!isResolved && <td>{formatMoney(shares)}</td>}
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<td>
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{formatMoney(
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isResolved
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? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
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: currentValue(contract, bet)
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)}
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{bet.isSold
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? 'N/A'
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: formatMoney(
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isResolved
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? resolvedPayout(contract, bet)
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: bet.sale
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? bet.sale.amount ?? 0
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: currentValue(contract, bet)
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)}
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</td>
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{!isResolved && !sale && !isSold && (
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<td>
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<button
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className="btn"
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onClick={async (e) => {
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e.preventDefault()
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await sellBet({ contractId: contract.id, betId: bet.id })
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}}
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>
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Sell
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</button>
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</td>
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{sale ? (
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<td>SOLD for {formatMoney(Math.abs(sale.amount))}</td>
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) : (
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!isResolved &&
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!isSold && (
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<td className="text-neutral">
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<ConfirmationButton
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id={`sell-${bet.id}`}
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openModelBtn={{ className: 'btn-sm', label: 'Sell' }}
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submitBtn={{ className: 'btn-primary' }}
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onSubmit={async () => {
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await sellBet({ contractId: contract.id, betId: bet.id })
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}}
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>
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<div className="text-2xl mb-4">Sell</div>
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<div>
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Do you want to sell your {formatMoney(bet.amount)} bet for{' '}
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{formatMoney(calculateSaleAmount(contract, bet))}?
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</div>
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</ConfirmationButton>
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</td>
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)
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)}
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</tr>
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)
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@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
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import { Bet } from '../firebase/bets'
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import { Contract } from '../firebase/contracts'
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import { Bet } from './firebase/bets'
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import { Contract } from './firebase/contracts'
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const fees = 0.02
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@ -44,16 +44,24 @@ export function calculatePayout(
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if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
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if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
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let { totalShares } = contract
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const { totalShares } = contract
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// Fake data if not set.
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// if (!totalShares) totalShares = { YES: 100, NO: 100 }
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if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
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const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
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const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
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console.log(
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'calcPayout',
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'shares',
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shares,
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'totalShares',
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totalShares,
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'pool'
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)
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return (1 - fees) * (shares / totalShares[outcome]) * pool
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}
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export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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if (contract.resolution)
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return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution)
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@ -65,5 +73,51 @@ export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES')
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const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO')
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console.log('calculate value', {
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prob,
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yesPayout,
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noPayout,
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amount: bet.amount,
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})
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return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
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}
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export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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const { shares, outcome } = bet
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const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool
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const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool
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const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares
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const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares]
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const shareValue =
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outcome === 'YES'
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? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b
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(n ** 2 +
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s * y +
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y ** 2 -
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Math.sqrt(
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n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y)
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)) /
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(2 * y)
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: (y ** 2 +
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s * n +
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n ** 2 -
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Math.sqrt(
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y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n)
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)) /
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(2 * n)
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const startPool = yesStart + noStart
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const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool
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const f = outcome === 'YES' ? pool / yesShares : pool / noShares
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const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart
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const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool)
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const saleAmount = (1 - fees) * adjShareValue
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return saleAmount
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}
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