enable resolve MKT

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
 
       const { outcome, contractId } = data
 
-      if (!['YES', 'NO', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
+      if (!['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'].includes(outcome))
         return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid outcome' }
 
       const contractDoc = firestore.doc(`contracts/${contractId}`)

web/components/bets-list.tsx

@@ -357,11 +357,12 @@ function SellButton(props: { contract: Contract; bet: Bet }) {
   )
 }
 
-function OutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' }) {
+function OutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT' }) {
   const { outcome } = props
 
   if (outcome === 'YES') return <YesLabel />
   if (outcome === 'NO') return <NoLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'MKT') return <MarketLabel />
   return <CancelLabel />
 }
 
@@ -376,3 +377,7 @@ function NoLabel() {
 function CancelLabel() {
   return <span className="text-yellow-400">N/A</span>
 }
+
+function MarketLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-blue-400">MKT</span>
+}

web/components/contract-overview.tsx

@@ -98,6 +98,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
   const resolutionColor = {
     YES: 'text-primary',
     NO: 'text-red-400',
+    MKT: 'text-blue-400',
     CANCEL: 'text-yellow-400',
     '': '', // Empty if unresolved
   }[contract.resolution || '']

web/components/contracts-list.tsx

@@ -44,6 +44,7 @@ function ContractCard(props: { contract: Contract }) {
   const resolutionColor = {
     YES: 'text-primary',
     NO: 'text-red-400',
+    MKT: 'text-blue-400',
     CANCEL: 'text-yellow-400',
     '': '', // Empty if unresolved
   }[contract.resolution || '']
@@ -51,6 +52,7 @@ function ContractCard(props: { contract: Contract }) {
   const resolutionText = {
     YES: 'YES',
     NO: 'NO',
+    MKT: 'MKT',
     CANCEL: 'N/A',
     '': '',
   }[contract.resolution || '']

web/components/resolution-panel.tsx

@@ -20,7 +20,9 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, className } = props
 
-  const [outcome, setOutcome] = useState<'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | undefined>()
+  const [outcome, setOutcome] = useState<
+    'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
+  >()
 
   const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
@@ -48,6 +50,8 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
       ? 'bg-red-400 hover:bg-red-500'
       : outcome === 'CANCEL'
       ? 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500'
+      : outcome === 'MKT'
+      ? 'bg-blue-400 hover:bg-blue-500'
       : 'btn-disabled'
 
   return (
@@ -74,6 +78,11 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
           <>Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors. You earn 1% of the pool.</>
         ) : outcome === 'CANCEL' ? (
           <>The pool will be returned to traders with no fees.</>
+        ) : outcome === 'MKT' ? (
+          <>
+            Traders will be paid out at the current implied probability. You
+            earn 1% of the pool.
+          </>
         ) : (
           <>Resolving this market will immediately pay out traders.</>
         )}

web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import React from 'react'
+import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 
 export function YesNoSelector(props: {
@@ -29,48 +30,60 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
 }
 
 export function YesNoCancelSelector(props: {
-  selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
+  selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
-  onSelect: (selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL') => void
+  onSelect: (selected: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL') => void
   className?: string
   btnClassName?: string
 }) {
   const { selected, onSelect, className } = props
 
-  const btnClassName = clsx('px-6', props.btnClassName)
+  const btnClassName = clsx('px-6 flex-1', props.btnClassName)
 
   return (
-    <Row className={clsx('space-x-3', className)}>
+    <Col>
-      <Button
+      <Row className={clsx('space-x-3 w-full', className)}>
-        color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
+        <Button
-        onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
+          color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
-        className={btnClassName}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
-      >
+          className={btnClassName}
-        YES
+        >
-      </Button>
+          YES
+        </Button>
 
-      <Button
+        <Button
-        color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
+          color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
-        onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
-        className={btnClassName}
+          className={btnClassName}
-      >
+        >
-        NO
+          NO
-      </Button>
+        </Button>
+      </Row>
 
-      <Button
+      <Row className={clsx('space-x-3 w-full', className)}>
-        color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
+        <Button
-        onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
+          color={selected === 'MKT' ? 'blue' : 'gray'}
-        className={btnClassName}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
-      >
+          className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
-        N/A
+        >
-      </Button>
+          MKT
-    </Row>
+        </Button>
+
+        <Button
+          color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
+          onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
+          className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
+        >
+          N/A
+        </Button>
+      </Row>
+    </Col>
   )
 }
 
 function Button(props: {
   className?: string
   onClick?: () => void
-  color: 'green' | 'red' | 'yellow' | 'gray'
+  color: 'green' | 'red' | 'blue' | 'yellow' | 'gray'
   children?: any
 }) {
   const { className, onClick, children, color } = props
@@ -83,6 +96,7 @@ function Button(props: {
         color === 'green' && 'btn-primary',
         color === 'red' && 'bg-red-400 hover:bg-red-500',
         color === 'yellow' && 'bg-yellow-400 hover:bg-yellow-500',
+        color === 'blue' && 'bg-blue-400 hover:bg-blue-500',
         color === 'gray' && 'text-gray-700 bg-gray-300 hover:bg-gray-400',
         className
       )}

web/lib/calculate.ts

@@ -37,27 +37,36 @@ export function calculateShares(
 export function calculatePayout(
   contract: Contract,
   bet: Bet,
-  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL'
+  outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' | 'MKT'
 ) {
   const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
 
   if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount
-  if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
+
+  const impliedProbabilility =
+    contract.pool.YES ** 2 / (contract.pool.YES ** 2 + contract.pool.NO ** 2)
+
+  const p =
+    outcome === 'MKT'
+      ? betOutcome === 'YES'
+        ? impliedProbabilility
+        : 1 - impliedProbabilility
+      : outcome === 'YES'
+      ? 1
+      : 0
 
   const { totalShares, totalBets } = contract
 
-  if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0
-
   const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO
   const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool
 
-  if (totalBets[outcome] <= truePool)
+  if (totalBets[betOutcome] <= truePool)
-    return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
+    return p * (amount / totalBets[betOutcome]) * truePool
 
-  const total = totalShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
+  const total = totalShares[betOutcome] - totalBets[betOutcome]
-  const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]
+  const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[betOutcome]
 
-  return (1 - fees) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
+  return p * (1 - fees) * (amount + ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool)
 }
 
 export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {

web/lib/firebase/init.ts

@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@ import { getFirestore } from '@firebase/firestore'
 import { initializeApp } from 'firebase/app'
 
 // TODO: Reenable this when we have a way to set the Firebase db in dev
-// export const isProd = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production'
+export const isProd = process.env.NODE_ENV === 'production'
-export const isProd = true
+// export const isProd = true
 
 const firebaseConfig = isProd
   ? {