Merge branch 'main' into free-response
This commit is contained in:
commit
26717295b8
|
@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import { getProbability } from './calculate'
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import { Contract } from './contract'
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import { User } from './user'
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export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 100
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export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 0.001
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export const MINIMUM_ANTE = 10
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export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante = 0) => {
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|
|
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@ -116,7 +116,9 @@ export function calculateShareValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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}
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export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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return (1 - FEES) * calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
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const { amount } = bet
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const winnings = calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
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return deductFees(amount, winnings)
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}
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export function calculatePayout(
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@ -145,19 +147,16 @@ export function calculateStandardPayout(
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const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
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if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
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const { totalShares, totalBets, phantomShares } = contract
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const { totalShares, phantomShares } = contract
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if (!totalShares[outcome]) return 0
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const truePool = _.sum(Object.values(totalShares))
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const pool = _.sum(Object.values(totalShares))
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if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
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return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
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const total = totalShares[outcome] - phantomShares[outcome]
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const total =
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totalShares[outcome] - phantomShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
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const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]
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return amount + (1 - FEES) * ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool
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const winnings = (shares / total) * pool
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// profit can be negative if using phantom shares
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return amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, winnings - amount)
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}
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export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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@ -191,35 +190,18 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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? contract.resolutionProbability
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: getProbability(contract.totalShares)
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const weightedTotal =
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p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO
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const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
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if (weightedTotal >= truePool) {
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return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool
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}
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const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal
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const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const weightedShareTotal =
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p *
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(contract.totalShares.YES -
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contract.phantomShares.YES -
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contract.totalBets.YES) +
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(1 - p) *
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(contract.totalShares.NO -
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contract.phantomShares.NO -
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contract.totalBets.NO)
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p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.phantomShares.YES) +
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(1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.phantomShares.NO)
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return (
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betP * bet.amount +
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(1 - FEES) *
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((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
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winningsPool
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)
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const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
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const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
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const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
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return deductFees(amount, winnings)
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}
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export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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|
@ -236,3 +218,9 @@ export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
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return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
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}
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export const deductFees = (betAmount: number, winnings: number) => {
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return winnings > betAmount
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? betAmount + (1 - FEES) * (winnings - betAmount)
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: winnings
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}
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|
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
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import * as _ from 'lodash'
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import { Bet } from './bet'
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import { getProbability } from './calculate'
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import { deductFees, getProbability } from './calculate'
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import { Contract, outcome } from './contract'
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import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
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|
@ -8,7 +10,7 @@ export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
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const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO
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console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
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const betSum = sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
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const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
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return bets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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@ -21,42 +23,38 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
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contract: Contract,
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bets: Bet[]
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) => {
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const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
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const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
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const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
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const betSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount)
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const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
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const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
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const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * pool
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const profit = winnings - amount
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if (betSum >= poolTotal) return getCancelPayouts(contract, winningBets)
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// profit can be negative if using phantom shares
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const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, profit)
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return { userId, profit, payout }
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})
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const shareDifferenceSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
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const winningsPool = poolTotal - betSum
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const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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bet.amount +
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(1 - FEES) *
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((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) *
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winningsPool,
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}))
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * winningsPool
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const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
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console.log(
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'resolved',
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outcome,
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'pool: M$',
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poolTotal,
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'creator fee: M$',
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'pool',
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pool,
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'profits',
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profits,
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'creator fee',
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creatorPayout
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)
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return winnerPayouts.concat([
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{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
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]) // add creator fee
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return payouts
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.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
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.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
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}
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export const getMktPayouts = (
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|
@ -69,56 +67,37 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
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? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
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: resolutionProbability
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const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', poolTotal)
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const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(bets, (b) =>
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b.outcome === 'YES' ? p * b.shares : (1 - p) * b.shares
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)
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const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
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const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
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const weightedBetTotal =
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p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) +
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(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount)
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const payouts = bets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => {
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const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
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const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
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const profit = winnings - amount
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const payout = deductFees(amount, winnings)
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return { userId, profit, payout }
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})
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if (weightedBetTotal >= poolTotal) {
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return bets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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(((bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) /
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weightedBetTotal) *
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poolTotal,
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}))
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}
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const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
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const winningsPool = poolTotal - weightedBetTotal
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console.log(
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'resolved MKT',
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p,
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'pool',
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pool,
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'profits',
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profits,
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'creator fee',
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creatorPayout
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)
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const weightedShareTotal =
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p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) +
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(1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
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const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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p * bet.amount +
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(1 - FEES) *
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((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
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winningsPool,
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}))
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const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
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userId: bet.userId,
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payout:
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(1 - p) * bet.amount +
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(1 - FEES) *
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(((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
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winningsPool,
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}))
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const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * winningsPool
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return [
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...yesPayouts,
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...noPayouts,
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{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
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]
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return payouts
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.map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
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.concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
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}
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export const getPayouts = (
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|
@ -137,20 +116,3 @@ export const getPayouts = (
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return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
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}
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}
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const partition = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => boolean) => {
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const yes = []
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const no = []
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|
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for (let t of array) {
|
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if (f(t)) yes.push(t)
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else no.push(t)
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}
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|
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return [yes, no] as [T[], T[]]
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}
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|
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const sumBy = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => number) => {
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const values = array.map(f)
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return values.reduce((prev, cur) => prev + cur, 0)
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}
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|
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
|
|||
import { Bet } from './bet'
|
||||
import { calculateShareValue, getProbability } from './calculate'
|
||||
import { calculateShareValue, deductFees, getProbability } from './calculate'
|
||||
import { Contract } from './contract'
|
||||
import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
|
||||
import { User } from './user'
|
||||
|
@ -36,8 +36,9 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
|
|||
const probBefore = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
|
||||
const probAfter = getProbability(newTotalShares)
|
||||
|
||||
const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
|
||||
const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
|
||||
const profit = adjShareValue - amount
|
||||
const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * Math.max(0, profit)
|
||||
const saleAmount = deductFees(amount, adjShareValue)
|
||||
|
||||
console.log(
|
||||
'SELL M$',
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -30,7 +30,9 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
|
|||
|
||||
if (
|
||||
probabilityInt !== undefined &&
|
||||
(probabilityInt < 1 || probabilityInt > 99 || !isFinite(probabilityInt))
|
||||
(probabilityInt < 0 ||
|
||||
probabilityInt > 100 ||
|
||||
!isFinite(probabilityInt))
|
||||
)
|
||||
return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid probability' }
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -23,13 +23,15 @@ import {
|
|||
import { Row } from './layout/row'
|
||||
import { UserLink } from './user-page'
|
||||
import {
|
||||
calculateCancelPayout,
|
||||
calculatePayout,
|
||||
calculateSaleAmount,
|
||||
getProbability,
|
||||
resolvedPayout,
|
||||
} from '../../common/calculate'
|
||||
import { sellBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
|
||||
import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
|
||||
import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel, MarketLabel } from './outcome-label'
|
||||
import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel } from './outcome-label'
|
||||
|
||||
type BetSort = 'newest' | 'profit'
|
||||
|
||||
|
@ -119,16 +121,32 @@ export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
|
|||
(c) => contractsCurrentValue[c.id]
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
||||
const totalPortfolio = currentBetsValue + user.balance
|
||||
|
||||
const pnl = totalPortfolio - user.totalDeposits
|
||||
const totalReturn =
|
||||
(pnl > 0 ? '+' : '') + ((pnl / user.totalDeposits) * 100).toFixed() + '%'
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Col className="mt-6 gap-6">
|
||||
<Col className="mx-4 gap-4 sm:flex-row sm:justify-between md:mx-0">
|
||||
<Row className="gap-8">
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Total portfolio</div>
|
||||
<div>{formatMoney(totalPortfolio)}</div>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Total profits & losses</div>
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
{formatMoney(pnl)} ({totalReturn})
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Currently invested</div>
|
||||
<div>{formatMoney(currentInvestment)}</div>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Current value</div>
|
||||
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Current market value</div>
|
||||
<div>{formatMoney(currentBetsValue)}</div>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
</Row>
|
||||
|
@ -231,6 +249,7 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
|
|||
}) {
|
||||
const { bets, contract, showMKT, className } = props
|
||||
const { resolution } = contract
|
||||
calculateCancelPayout
|
||||
|
||||
const excludeSales = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
|
||||
const betsTotal = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => bet.amount)
|
||||
|
@ -284,7 +303,10 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
|
|||
{showMKT && (
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
|
||||
Payout if <MarketLabel />
|
||||
Payout at{' '}
|
||||
<span className="text-blue-400">
|
||||
{formatPercent(getProbability(contract.totalShares))}
|
||||
</span>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
<div className="whitespace-nowrap">
|
||||
{formatMoney(marketWinnings)}
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ export function EditFoldButton(props: { fold: Fold; className?: string }) {
|
|||
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
|
||||
|
||||
const tags = parseWordsAsTags(toCamelCase(name) + ' ' + otherTags)
|
||||
const lowercaseTags = tags.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
|
||||
|
||||
const saveDisabled =
|
||||
name === fold.name &&
|
||||
|
@ -38,6 +39,7 @@ export function EditFoldButton(props: { fold: Fold; className?: string }) {
|
|||
name,
|
||||
about,
|
||||
tags,
|
||||
lowercaseTags,
|
||||
})
|
||||
|
||||
setIsSubmitting(false)
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -21,10 +21,6 @@ export function CancelLabel() {
|
|||
return <span className="text-yellow-400">N/A</span>
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function MarketLabel() {
|
||||
return <span className="text-blue-400">MKT</span>
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
export function ProbLabel() {
|
||||
return <span className="text-blue-400">PROB</span>
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -64,9 +64,9 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
|
|||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Col className={clsx('rounded-md bg-white px-8 py-6', className)}>
|
||||
<Title className="mt-0" text="Your market" />
|
||||
<Title className="mt-0" text="Resolve market" />
|
||||
|
||||
<div className="pt-2 pb-1 text-sm text-gray-500">Resolve outcome</div>
|
||||
<div className="pt-2 pb-1 text-sm text-gray-500">Outcome</div>
|
||||
|
||||
<YesNoCancelSelector
|
||||
className="mx-auto my-2"
|
||||
|
@ -80,20 +80,30 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
|
|||
<div>
|
||||
{outcome === 'YES' ? (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
Winnings will be paid out to YES bettors. You earn{' '}
|
||||
{CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
|
||||
Winnings will be paid out to YES bettors.
|
||||
<br />
|
||||
<br />
|
||||
You earn {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
|
||||
</>
|
||||
) : outcome === 'NO' ? (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors. You earn{' '}
|
||||
{CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
|
||||
Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors.
|
||||
<br />
|
||||
<br />
|
||||
You earn {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
|
||||
</>
|
||||
) : outcome === 'CANCEL' ? (
|
||||
<>The pool will be returned to traders with no fees.</>
|
||||
) : outcome === 'MKT' ? (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
Traders will be paid out at the probability you specify. You earn{' '}
|
||||
{CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
|
||||
Traders will be paid out at the probability you specify:
|
||||
<Spacer h={2} />
|
||||
<ProbabilitySelector
|
||||
probabilityInt={Math.round(prob)}
|
||||
setProbabilityInt={setProb}
|
||||
/>
|
||||
<Spacer h={2} />
|
||||
You earn {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
|
||||
</>
|
||||
) : (
|
||||
<>Resolving this market will immediately pay out traders.</>
|
||||
|
@ -123,20 +133,7 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
|
|||
}}
|
||||
onSubmit={resolve}
|
||||
>
|
||||
{outcome === 'MKT' ? (
|
||||
<>
|
||||
<p className="mb-4">
|
||||
What probability would you like to resolve the market to?
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
|
||||
<ProbabilitySelector
|
||||
probabilityInt={Math.round(prob)}
|
||||
setProbabilityInt={setProb}
|
||||
/>
|
||||
</>
|
||||
) : (
|
||||
<p>Are you sure you want to resolve this market?</p>
|
||||
)}
|
||||
<p>Are you sure you want to resolve this market?</p>
|
||||
</ConfirmationButton>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
)
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -48,47 +48,44 @@ export function YesNoCancelSelector(props: {
|
|||
className?: string
|
||||
btnClassName?: string
|
||||
}) {
|
||||
const { selected, onSelect, className } = props
|
||||
const { selected, onSelect } = props
|
||||
|
||||
const btnClassName = clsx('px-6 flex-1', props.btnClassName)
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Col>
|
||||
<Row className={clsx('w-full space-x-3', className)}>
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
|
||||
className={btnClassName}
|
||||
>
|
||||
YES
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
<Col className="gap-2">
|
||||
{/* Should ideally use a radio group instead of buttons */}
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
|
||||
className={btnClassName}
|
||||
>
|
||||
YES
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
|
||||
className={btnClassName}
|
||||
>
|
||||
NO
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
</Row>
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
|
||||
className={btnClassName}
|
||||
>
|
||||
NO
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
|
||||
<Row className={clsx('w-full space-x-3', className)}>
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'MKT' ? 'blue' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
|
||||
className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
|
||||
>
|
||||
PROB
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'MKT' ? 'blue' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
|
||||
className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
|
||||
>
|
||||
PROB
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
|
||||
className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
|
||||
>
|
||||
N/A
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
</Row>
|
||||
<Button
|
||||
color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
|
||||
onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
|
||||
className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
|
||||
>
|
||||
N/A
|
||||
</Button>
|
||||
</Col>
|
||||
)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
|
|||
import { Page } from '../components/page'
|
||||
import { Grid } from 'gridjs-react'
|
||||
import { Grid, _ as r } from 'gridjs-react'
|
||||
import 'gridjs/dist/theme/mermaid.css'
|
||||
import { html } from 'gridjs'
|
||||
import dayjs from 'dayjs'
|
||||
import { usePrivateUsers, useUsers } from '../hooks/use-users'
|
||||
import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
|
||||
import Custom404 from './404'
|
||||
import { useContracts } from '../hooks/use-contracts'
|
||||
import _ from 'lodash'
|
||||
import { useAdmin } from '../hooks/use-admin'
|
||||
import { contractPath } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
|
||||
|
||||
function avatarHtml(avatarUrl: string) {
|
||||
return `<img
|
||||
|
@ -111,6 +111,20 @@ function ContractsTable() {
|
|||
let contracts = useContracts() ?? []
|
||||
// Sort users by createdTime descending, by default
|
||||
contracts.sort((a, b) => b.createdTime - a.createdTime)
|
||||
// Render a clickable question. See https://gridjs.io/docs/examples/react-cells for docs
|
||||
contracts.map((contract) => {
|
||||
// @ts-ignore
|
||||
contract.questionLink = r(
|
||||
<div className="w-60">
|
||||
<a
|
||||
className="hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2"
|
||||
href={contractPath(contract)}
|
||||
>
|
||||
{contract.question}
|
||||
</a>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
)
|
||||
})
|
||||
|
||||
return (
|
||||
<Grid
|
||||
|
@ -126,9 +140,8 @@ function ContractsTable() {
|
|||
href="/${cell}">@${cell}</a>`),
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'question',
|
||||
id: 'questionLink',
|
||||
name: 'Question',
|
||||
formatter: (cell) => html(`<div class="w-60">${cell}</div>`),
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
id: 'volume24Hours',
|
||||
|
|
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user