Merge branch 'main' into free-response

common/antes.ts

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import { getProbability } from './calculate'
 import { Contract } from './contract'
 import { User } from './user'
 
-export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 100
+export const PHANTOM_ANTE = 0.001
 export const MINIMUM_ANTE = 10
 
 export const calcStartPool = (initialProbInt: number, ante = 0) => {

common/calculate.ts

@@ -116,7 +116,9 @@ export function calculateShareValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
 }
 
 export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  return (1 - FEES) * calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
+  const { amount } = bet
+  const winnings = calculateShareValue(contract, bet)
+  return deductFees(amount, winnings)
 }
 
 export function calculatePayout(
@@ -145,19 +147,16 @@ export function calculateStandardPayout(
   const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet
   if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0
 
-  const { totalShares, totalBets, phantomShares } = contract
+  const { totalShares, phantomShares } = contract
   if (!totalShares[outcome]) return 0
 
-  const truePool = _.sum(Object.values(totalShares))
+  const pool = _.sum(Object.values(totalShares))
 
-  if (totalBets[outcome] >= truePool)
+  const total = totalShares[outcome] - phantomShares[outcome]
-    return (amount / totalBets[outcome]) * truePool
 
-  const total =
+  const winnings = (shares / total) * pool
-    totalShares[outcome] - phantomShares[outcome] - totalBets[outcome]
+  // profit can be negative if using phantom shares
-  const winningsPool = truePool - totalBets[outcome]
+  return amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, winnings - amount)
-
-  return amount + (1 - FEES) * ((shares - amount) / total) * winningsPool
 }
 
 export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
@@ -191,35 +190,18 @@ function calculateMktPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
       ? contract.resolutionProbability
       : getProbability(contract.totalShares)
 
-  const weightedTotal =
+  const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
-    p * contract.totalBets.YES + (1 - p) * contract.totalBets.NO
-
-  const truePool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
-
-  const betP = bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
-
-  if (weightedTotal >= truePool) {
-    return ((betP * bet.amount) / weightedTotal) * truePool
-  }
-
-  const winningsPool = truePool - weightedTotal
 
   const weightedShareTotal =
-    p *
+    p * (contract.totalShares.YES - contract.phantomShares.YES) +
-      (contract.totalShares.YES -
+    (1 - p) * (contract.totalShares.NO - contract.phantomShares.NO)
-        contract.phantomShares.YES -
-        contract.totalBets.YES) +
-    (1 - p) *
-      (contract.totalShares.NO -
-        contract.phantomShares.NO -
-        contract.totalBets.NO)
 
-  return (
+  const { outcome, amount, shares } = bet
-    betP * bet.amount +
+
-    (1 - FEES) *
+  const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
-      ((betP * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
+  const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
-      winningsPool
+
-  )
+  return deductFees(amount, winnings)
 }
 
 export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
@@ -236,3 +218,9 @@ export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
 
   return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout
 }
+
+export const deductFees = (betAmount: number, winnings: number) => {
+  return winnings > betAmount
+    ? betAmount + (1 - FEES) * (winnings - betAmount)
+    : winnings
+}

common/payouts.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
+import * as _ from 'lodash'
+
 import { Bet } from './bet'
-import { getProbability } from './calculate'
+import { deductFees, getProbability } from './calculate'
 import { Contract, outcome } from './contract'
 import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
 
@@ -8,7 +10,7 @@ export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => {
   const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO
   console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal)
 
-  const betSum = sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
+  const betSum = _.sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount)
 
   return bets.map((bet) => ({
     userId: bet.userId,
@@ -21,42 +23,38 @@ export const getStandardPayouts = (
   contract: Contract,
   bets: Bet[]
 ) => {
-  const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
+  const [yesBets, noBets] = _.partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
   const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets
 
-  const betSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount)
+  const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
+  const totalShares = _.sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares)
 
-  const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
+  const payouts = winningBets.map(({ userId, amount, shares }) => {
+    const winnings = (shares / totalShares) * pool
+    const profit = winnings - amount
 
-  if (betSum >= poolTotal) return getCancelPayouts(contract, winningBets)
+    // profit can be negative if using phantom shares
+    const payout = amount + (1 - FEES) * Math.max(0, profit)
+    return { userId, profit, payout }
+  })
 
-  const shareDifferenceSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
+  const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
-
+  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
-  const winningsPool = poolTotal - betSum
-
-  const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({
-    userId: bet.userId,
-    payout:
-      bet.amount +
-      (1 - FEES) *
-        ((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) *
-        winningsPool,
-  }))
-
-  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * winningsPool
 
   console.log(
     'resolved',
     outcome,
-    'pool: M$',
+    'pool',
-    poolTotal,
+    pool,
-    'creator fee: M$',
+    'profits',
+    profits,
+    'creator fee',
     creatorPayout
   )
 
-  return winnerPayouts.concat([
+  return payouts
-    { userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
+    .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
-  ]) // add creator fee
+    .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
 }
 
 export const getMktPayouts = (
@@ -69,56 +67,37 @@ export const getMktPayouts = (
       ? getProbability(contract.totalShares)
       : resolutionProbability
 
-  const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
+  const weightedShareTotal = _.sumBy(bets, (b) =>
-  console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', poolTotal)
+    b.outcome === 'YES' ? p * b.shares : (1 - p) * b.shares
+  )
 
-  const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES')
+  const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO
 
-  const weightedBetTotal =
+  const payouts = bets.map(({ userId, outcome, amount, shares }) => {
-    p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) +
+    const betP = outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p
-    (1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount)
+    const winnings = ((betP * shares) / weightedShareTotal) * pool
+    const profit = winnings - amount
+    const payout = deductFees(amount, winnings)
+    return { userId, profit, payout }
+  })
 
-  if (weightedBetTotal >= poolTotal) {
+  const profits = _.sumBy(payouts, (po) => Math.max(0, po.profit))
-    return bets.map((bet) => ({
+  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * profits
-      userId: bet.userId,
-      payout:
-        (((bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) /
-          weightedBetTotal) *
-        poolTotal,
-    }))
-  }
 
-  const winningsPool = poolTotal - weightedBetTotal
+  console.log(
+    'resolved MKT',
+    p,
+    'pool',
+    pool,
+    'profits',
+    profits,
+    'creator fee',
+    creatorPayout
+  )
 
-  const weightedShareTotal =
+  return payouts
-    p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) +
+    .map(({ userId, payout }) => ({ userId, payout }))
-    (1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount)
+    .concat([{ userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }]) // add creator fee
-
-  const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({
-    userId: bet.userId,
-    payout:
-      p * bet.amount +
-      (1 - FEES) *
-        ((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
-        winningsPool,
-  }))
-
-  const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({
-    userId: bet.userId,
-    payout:
-      (1 - p) * bet.amount +
-      (1 - FEES) *
-        (((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) *
-        winningsPool,
-  }))
-
-  const creatorPayout = CREATOR_FEE * winningsPool
-
-  return [
-    ...yesPayouts,
-    ...noPayouts,
-    { userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout },
-  ]
 }
 
 export const getPayouts = (
@@ -137,20 +116,3 @@ export const getPayouts = (
       return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets)
   }
 }
-
-const partition = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => boolean) => {
-  const yes = []
-  const no = []
-
-  for (let t of array) {
-    if (f(t)) yes.push(t)
-    else no.push(t)
-  }
-
-  return [yes, no] as [T[], T[]]
-}
-
-const sumBy = <T>(array: T[], f: (t: T) => number) => {
-  const values = array.map(f)
-  return values.reduce((prev, cur) => prev + cur, 0)
-}

common/sell-bet.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { Bet } from './bet'
-import { calculateShareValue, getProbability } from './calculate'
+import { calculateShareValue, deductFees, getProbability } from './calculate'
 import { Contract } from './contract'
 import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees'
 import { User } from './user'
@@ -36,8 +36,9 @@ export const getSellBetInfo = (
   const probBefore = getProbability(contract.totalShares)
   const probAfter = getProbability(newTotalShares)
 
-  const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * adjShareValue
+  const profit = adjShareValue - amount
-  const saleAmount = (1 - FEES) * adjShareValue
+  const creatorFee = CREATOR_FEE * Math.max(0, profit)
+  const saleAmount = deductFees(amount, adjShareValue)
 
   console.log(
     'SELL M$',

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -30,7 +30,9 @@ export const resolveMarket = functions
 
       if (
         probabilityInt !== undefined &&
-        (probabilityInt < 1 || probabilityInt > 99 || !isFinite(probabilityInt))
+        (probabilityInt < 0 ||
+          probabilityInt > 100 ||
+          !isFinite(probabilityInt))
       )
         return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid probability' }
 

web/components/bets-list.tsx

@@ -23,13 +23,15 @@ import {
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { UserLink } from './user-page'
 import {
+  calculateCancelPayout,
   calculatePayout,
   calculateSaleAmount,
+  getProbability,
   resolvedPayout,
 } from '../../common/calculate'
 import { sellBet } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { ConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
-import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel, MarketLabel } from './outcome-label'
+import { OutcomeLabel, YesLabel, NoLabel } from './outcome-label'
 
 type BetSort = 'newest' | 'profit'
 
@@ -119,16 +121,32 @@ export function BetsList(props: { user: User }) {
     (c) => contractsCurrentValue[c.id]
   )
 
+  const totalPortfolio = currentBetsValue + user.balance
+
+  const pnl = totalPortfolio - user.totalDeposits
+  const totalReturn =
+    (pnl > 0 ? '+' : '') + ((pnl / user.totalDeposits) * 100).toFixed() + '%'
+
   return (
     <Col className="mt-6 gap-6">
       <Col className="mx-4 gap-4 sm:flex-row sm:justify-between md:mx-0">
         <Row className="gap-8">
+          <Col>
+            <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Total portfolio</div>
+            <div>{formatMoney(totalPortfolio)}</div>
+          </Col>
+          <Col>
+            <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Total profits & losses</div>
+            <div>
+              {formatMoney(pnl)} ({totalReturn})
+            </div>
+          </Col>
           <Col>
             <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Currently invested</div>
             <div>{formatMoney(currentInvestment)}</div>
           </Col>
           <Col>
-            <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Current value</div>
+            <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Current market value</div>
             <div>{formatMoney(currentBetsValue)}</div>
           </Col>
         </Row>
@@ -231,6 +249,7 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
 }) {
   const { bets, contract, showMKT, className } = props
   const { resolution } = contract
+  calculateCancelPayout
 
   const excludeSales = bets.filter((b) => !b.isSold && !b.sale)
   const betsTotal = _.sumBy(excludeSales, (bet) => bet.amount)
@@ -284,7 +303,10 @@ export function MyBetsSummary(props: {
           {showMKT && (
             <Col>
               <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
-                Payout if <MarketLabel />
+                Payout at{' '}
+                <span className="text-blue-400">
+                  {formatPercent(getProbability(contract.totalShares))}
+                </span>
               </div>
               <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
                 {formatMoney(marketWinnings)}

web/components/edit-fold-button.tsx

@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ export function EditFoldButton(props: { fold: Fold; className?: string }) {
   const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
 
   const tags = parseWordsAsTags(toCamelCase(name) + ' ' + otherTags)
+  const lowercaseTags = tags.map((tag) => tag.toLowerCase())
 
   const saveDisabled =
     name === fold.name &&
@@ -38,6 +39,7 @@ export function EditFoldButton(props: { fold: Fold; className?: string }) {
       name,
       about,
       tags,
+      lowercaseTags,
     })
 
     setIsSubmitting(false)

web/components/outcome-label.tsx

@@ -21,10 +21,6 @@ export function CancelLabel() {
   return <span className="text-yellow-400">N/A</span>
 }
 
-export function MarketLabel() {
-  return <span className="text-blue-400">MKT</span>
-}
-
 export function ProbLabel() {
   return <span className="text-blue-400">PROB</span>
 }

web/components/resolution-panel.tsx

@@ -64,9 +64,9 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
 
   return (
     <Col className={clsx('rounded-md bg-white px-8 py-6', className)}>
-      <Title className="mt-0" text="Your market" />
+      <Title className="mt-0" text="Resolve market" />
 
-      <div className="pt-2 pb-1 text-sm text-gray-500">Resolve outcome</div>
+      <div className="pt-2 pb-1 text-sm text-gray-500">Outcome</div>
 
       <YesNoCancelSelector
         className="mx-auto my-2"
@@ -80,20 +80,30 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
       <div>
         {outcome === 'YES' ? (
           <>
-            Winnings will be paid out to YES bettors. You earn{' '}
+            Winnings will be paid out to YES bettors.
-            {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
+            <br />
+            <br />
+            You earn {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
           </>
         ) : outcome === 'NO' ? (
           <>
-            Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors. You earn{' '}
+            Winnings will be paid out to NO bettors.
-            {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
+            <br />
+            <br />
+            You earn {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
           </>
         ) : outcome === 'CANCEL' ? (
           <>The pool will be returned to traders with no fees.</>
         ) : outcome === 'MKT' ? (
           <>
-            Traders will be paid out at the probability you specify. You earn{' '}
+            Traders will be paid out at the probability you specify:
-            {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
+            <Spacer h={2} />
+            <ProbabilitySelector
+              probabilityInt={Math.round(prob)}
+              setProbabilityInt={setProb}
+            />
+            <Spacer h={2} />
+            You earn {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits.
           </>
         ) : (
           <>Resolving this market will immediately pay out traders.</>
@@ -123,20 +133,7 @@ export function ResolutionPanel(props: {
         }}
         onSubmit={resolve}
       >
-        {outcome === 'MKT' ? (
+        <p>Are you sure you want to resolve this market?</p>
-          <>
-            <p className="mb-4">
-              What probability would you like to resolve the market to?
-            </p>
-
-            <ProbabilitySelector
-              probabilityInt={Math.round(prob)}
-              setProbabilityInt={setProb}
-            />
-          </>
-        ) : (
-          <p>Are you sure you want to resolve this market?</p>
-        )}
       </ConfirmationButton>
     </Col>
   )

web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx

@@ -48,47 +48,44 @@ export function YesNoCancelSelector(props: {
   className?: string
   btnClassName?: string
 }) {
-  const { selected, onSelect, className } = props
+  const { selected, onSelect } = props
 
   const btnClassName = clsx('px-6 flex-1', props.btnClassName)
 
   return (
-    <Col>
+    <Col className="gap-2">
-      <Row className={clsx('w-full space-x-3', className)}>
+      {/* Should ideally use a radio group instead of buttons */}
-        <Button
+      <Button
-          color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
+        color={selected === 'YES' ? 'green' : 'gray'}
-          onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
+        onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
-          className={btnClassName}
+        className={btnClassName}
-        >
+      >
-          YES
+        YES
-        </Button>
+      </Button>
 
-        <Button
+      <Button
-          color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
+        color={selected === 'NO' ? 'red' : 'gray'}
-          onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
+        onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
-          className={btnClassName}
+        className={btnClassName}
-        >
+      >
-          NO
+        NO
-        </Button>
+      </Button>
-      </Row>
 
-      <Row className={clsx('w-full space-x-3', className)}>
+      <Button
-        <Button
+        color={selected === 'MKT' ? 'blue' : 'gray'}
-          color={selected === 'MKT' ? 'blue' : 'gray'}
+        onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
-          onClick={() => onSelect('MKT')}
+        className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
-          className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
+      >
-        >
+        PROB
-          PROB
+      </Button>
-        </Button>
 
-        <Button
+      <Button
-          color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
+        color={selected === 'CANCEL' ? 'yellow' : 'gray'}
-          onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
+        onClick={() => onSelect('CANCEL')}
-          className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
+        className={clsx(btnClassName, 'btn-sm')}
-        >
+      >
-          N/A
+        N/A
-        </Button>
+      </Button>
-      </Row>
     </Col>
   )
 }

web/pages/admin.tsx

@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
 import { Page } from '../components/page'
-import { Grid } from 'gridjs-react'
+import { Grid, _ as r } from 'gridjs-react'
 import 'gridjs/dist/theme/mermaid.css'
 import { html } from 'gridjs'
 import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { usePrivateUsers, useUsers } from '../hooks/use-users'
-import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
 import Custom404 from './404'
 import { useContracts } from '../hooks/use-contracts'
 import _ from 'lodash'
 import { useAdmin } from '../hooks/use-admin'
+import { contractPath } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
 
 function avatarHtml(avatarUrl: string) {
   return `<img
@@ -111,6 +111,20 @@ function ContractsTable() {
   let contracts = useContracts() ?? []
   // Sort users by createdTime descending, by default
   contracts.sort((a, b) => b.createdTime - a.createdTime)
+  // Render a clickable question. See https://gridjs.io/docs/examples/react-cells for docs
+  contracts.map((contract) => {
+    // @ts-ignore
+    contract.questionLink = r(
+      <div className="w-60">
+        <a
+          className="hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2"
+          href={contractPath(contract)}
+        >
+          {contract.question}
+        </a>
+      </div>
+    )
+  })
 
   return (
     <Grid
@@ -126,9 +140,8 @@ function ContractsTable() {
               href="/${cell}">@${cell}</a>`),
         },
         {
-          id: 'question',
+          id: 'questionLink',
           name: 'Question',
-          formatter: (cell) => html(`<div class="w-60">${cell}</div>`),
         },
         {
           id: 'volume24Hours',