Pseudo numeric market (#609)

* create pseudo-numeric contracts

* graph and bet panel for pseudo numeric

* pseudo numeric market layout, quick betting

* Estimated value

* sell panel

* fix graph

* pseudo numeric resolution

* bets tab

* redemption for pseudo numeric markets

* create log scale market, validation

* log scale

* create: initial value can't be min or max

* don't allow log scale for ranges with negative values (b/c of problem with graph library)

* prettier delenda est

* graph: handle min value of zero

* bet labeling

* validation

* prettier

* pseudo numeric embeds

* update disclaimer

* validation

* validation

common/calculate.ts

@@ -18,15 +18,24 @@ import {
   getDpmProbabilityAfterSale,
 } from './calculate-dpm'
 import { calculateFixedPayout } from './calculate-fixed-payouts'
-import { Contract, BinaryContract, FreeResponseContract } from './contract'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  BinaryContract,
+  FreeResponseContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
+} from './contract'
 
-export function getProbability(contract: BinaryContract) {
+export function getProbability(
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
+) {
   return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
     ? getCpmmProbability(contract.pool, contract.p)
     : getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares)
 }
 
-export function getInitialProbability(contract: BinaryContract) {
+export function getInitialProbability(
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
+) {
   if (contract.initialProbability) return contract.initialProbability
 
   if (contract.mechanism === 'dpm-2' || (contract as any).totalShares)
@@ -65,7 +74,9 @@ export function calculateShares(
 }
 
 export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
-  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
     ? calculateCpmmSale(contract, Math.abs(bet.shares), bet.outcome).saleValue
     : calculateDpmSaleAmount(contract, bet)
 }
@@ -87,7 +98,9 @@ export function getProbabilityAfterSale(
 }
 
 export function calculatePayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: string) {
-  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
     ? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
     : calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
 }
@@ -96,7 +109,9 @@ export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   const outcome = contract.resolution
   if (!outcome) throw new Error('Contract not resolved')
 
-  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  return contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
     ? calculateFixedPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
     : calculateDpmPayout(contract, bet, outcome)
 }
@@ -142,9 +157,7 @@ export function getContractBetMetrics(contract: Contract, yourBets: Bet[]) {
   const profit = payout + saleValue + redeemed - totalInvested
   const profitPercent = (profit / totalInvested) * 100
 
-  const hasShares = Object.values(totalShares).some(
+  const hasShares = Object.values(totalShares).some((shares) => shares > 0)
-    (shares) => shares > 0
-  )
 
   return {
     invested: Math.max(0, currentInvested),

common/contract.ts

@@ -2,9 +2,10 @@ import { Answer } from './answer'
 import { Fees } from './fees'
 
 export type AnyMechanism = DPM | CPMM
-export type AnyOutcomeType = Binary | FreeResponse | Numeric
+export type AnyOutcomeType = Binary | PseudoNumeric | FreeResponse | Numeric
 export type AnyContractType =
   | (CPMM & Binary)
+  | (CPMM & PseudoNumeric)
   | (DPM & Binary)
   | (DPM & FreeResponse)
   | (DPM & Numeric)
@@ -33,7 +34,7 @@ export type Contract<T extends AnyContractType = AnyContractType> = {
   isResolved: boolean
   resolutionTime?: number // When the contract creator resolved the market
   resolution?: string
-  resolutionProbability?: number,
+  resolutionProbability?: number
 
   closeEmailsSent?: number
 
@@ -44,7 +45,8 @@ export type Contract<T extends AnyContractType = AnyContractType> = {
   collectedFees: Fees
 } & T
 
-export type BinaryContract = Contract & Binary
+export type BinaryContract = Contract & Binary 
+export type PseudoNumericContract = Contract & PseudoNumeric 
 export type NumericContract = Contract & Numeric
 export type FreeResponseContract = Contract & FreeResponse
 export type DPMContract = Contract & DPM
@@ -75,6 +77,18 @@ export type Binary = {
   resolution?: resolution
 }
 
+export type PseudoNumeric = {
+  outcomeType: 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+  min: number
+  max: number
+  isLogScale: boolean
+  resolutionValue?: number
+
+  // same as binary market; map everything to probability
+  initialProbability: number
+  resolutionProbability?: number
+}
+
 export type FreeResponse = {
   outcomeType: 'FREE_RESPONSE'
   answers: Answer[] // Used for outcomeType 'FREE_RESPONSE'.
@@ -94,7 +108,7 @@ export type Numeric = {
 export type outcomeType = AnyOutcomeType['outcomeType']
 export type resolution = 'YES' | 'NO' | 'MKT' | 'CANCEL'
 export const RESOLUTIONS = ['YES', 'NO', 'MKT', 'CANCEL'] as const
-export const OUTCOME_TYPES = ['BINARY', 'FREE_RESPONSE', 'NUMERIC'] as const
+export const OUTCOME_TYPES = ['BINARY', 'FREE_RESPONSE', 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC', 'NUMERIC'] as const
 
 export const MAX_QUESTION_LENGTH = 480
 export const MAX_DESCRIPTION_LENGTH = 10000

common/new-bet.ts

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ import {
   DPMBinaryContract,
   FreeResponseContract,
   NumericContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
 } from './contract'
 import { noFees } from './fees'
 import { addObjects } from './util/object'
@@ -32,7 +33,7 @@ export type BetInfo = {
 export const getNewBinaryCpmmBetInfo = (
   outcome: 'YES' | 'NO',
   amount: number,
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract,
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract,
   loanAmount: number
 ) => {
   const { shares, newPool, newP, fees } = calculateCpmmPurchase(

common/new-contract.ts

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   FreeResponse,
   Numeric,
   outcomeType,
+  PseudoNumeric,
 } from './contract'
 import { User } from './user'
 import { parseTags } from './util/parse'
@@ -27,7 +28,8 @@ export function getNewContract(
   // used for numeric markets
   bucketCount: number,
   min: number,
-  max: number
+  max: number,
+  isLogScale: boolean
 ) {
   const tags = parseTags(
     `${question} ${description} ${extraTags.map((tag) => `#${tag}`).join(' ')}`
@@ -37,6 +39,8 @@ export function getNewContract(
   const propsByOutcomeType =
     outcomeType === 'BINARY'
       ? getBinaryCpmmProps(initialProb, ante) // getBinaryDpmProps(initialProb, ante)
+      : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+      ? getPseudoNumericCpmmProps(initialProb, ante, min, max, isLogScale)
       : outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
       ? getNumericProps(ante, bucketCount, min, max)
       : getFreeAnswerProps(ante)
@@ -111,6 +115,24 @@ const getBinaryCpmmProps = (initialProb: number, ante: number) => {
   return system
 }
 
+const getPseudoNumericCpmmProps = (
+  initialProb: number,
+  ante: number,
+  min: number,
+  max: number,
+  isLogScale: boolean
+) => {
+  const system: CPMM & PseudoNumeric = {
+    ...getBinaryCpmmProps(initialProb, ante),
+    outcomeType: 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC',
+    min,
+    max,
+    isLogScale,
+  }
+
+  return system
+}
+
 const getFreeAnswerProps = (ante: number) => {
   const system: DPM & FreeResponse = {
     mechanism: 'dpm-2',

common/payouts.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,12 @@
 import { sumBy, groupBy, mapValues } from 'lodash'
 
 import { Bet, NumericBet } from './bet'
-import { Contract, CPMMBinaryContract, DPMContract } from './contract'
+import {
+  Contract,
+  CPMMBinaryContract,
+  DPMContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
+} from './contract'
 import { Fees } from './fees'
 import { LiquidityProvision } from './liquidity-provision'
 import {
@@ -56,7 +61,11 @@ export const getPayouts = (
   },
   resolutionProbability?: number
 ): PayoutInfo => {
-  if (contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' && contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
+  if (
+    contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1' &&
+    (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY' ||
+      contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
+  ) {
     return getFixedPayouts(
       outcome,
       contract,
@@ -76,7 +85,7 @@ export const getPayouts = (
 
 export const getFixedPayouts = (
   outcome: string | undefined,
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract,
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract,
   bets: Bet[],
   liquidities: LiquidityProvision[],
   resolutionProbability?: number

common/pseudo-numeric.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,45 @@
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from './contract'
+import { formatLargeNumber, formatPercent } from './util/format'
+
+export function formatNumericProbability(
+  p: number,
+  contract: PseudoNumericContract
+) {
+  const value = getMappedValue(contract)(p)
+  return formatLargeNumber(value)
+}
+
+export const getMappedValue =
+  (contract: PseudoNumericContract | BinaryContract) => (p: number) => {
+    if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') return p
+
+    const { min, max, isLogScale } = contract
+
+    if (isLogScale) {
+      const logValue = p * Math.log10(max - min)
+      return 10 ** logValue + min 
+    }
+
+    return p * (max - min) + min
+  }
+
+export const getFormattedMappedValue =
+  (contract: PseudoNumericContract | BinaryContract) => (p: number) => {
+    if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') return formatPercent(p)
+
+    const value = getMappedValue(contract)(p)
+    return formatLargeNumber(value)
+  }
+
+export const getPseudoProbability = (
+  value: number,
+  min: number,
+  max: number,
+  isLogScale = false
+) => {
+  if (isLogScale) {
+    return Math.log10(value - min) / Math.log10(max - min)
+  }
+
+  return (value - min) / (max - min)
+}

functions/src/create-contract.ts

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ import { getNewContract } from '../../common/new-contract'
 import { NUMERIC_BUCKET_COUNT } from '../../common/numeric-constants'
 import { User } from '../../common/user'
 import { Group, MAX_ID_LENGTH } from '../../common/group'
+import { getPseudoProbability } from '../../common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 const bodySchema = z.object({
   question: z.string().min(1).max(MAX_QUESTION_LENGTH),
@@ -45,19 +46,31 @@ const binarySchema = z.object({
   initialProb: z.number().min(1).max(99),
 })
 
+const finite = () => z.number().gte(Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER).lte(Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER)
+
 const numericSchema = z.object({
-  min: z.number(),
+  min: finite(),
-  max: z.number(),
+  max: finite(),
+  initialValue: finite(),
+  isLogScale: z.boolean().optional(),
 })
 
 export const createmarket = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
   const { question, description, tags, closeTime, outcomeType, groupId } =
     validate(bodySchema, req.body)
 
-  let min, max, initialProb
+  let min, max, initialProb, isLogScale
-  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
+
-    ;({ min, max } = validate(numericSchema, req.body))
+  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' || outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
-    if (max - min <= 0.01) throw new APIError(400, 'Invalid range.')
+    let initialValue
+    ;({ min, max, initialValue, isLogScale } = validate(
+      numericSchema,
+      req.body
+    ))
+    if (max - min <= 0.01 || initialValue < min || initialValue > max)
+      throw new APIError(400, 'Invalid range.')
+
+    initialProb = getPseudoProbability(initialValue, min, max, isLogScale) * 100
   }
   if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
     ;({ initialProb } = validate(binarySchema, req.body))
@@ -121,7 +134,8 @@ export const createmarket = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
     tags ?? [],
     NUMERIC_BUCKET_COUNT,
     min ?? 0,
-    max ?? 0
+    max ?? 0,
+    isLogScale ?? false
   )
 
   if (ante) await chargeUser(user.id, ante, true)
@@ -130,7 +144,7 @@ export const createmarket = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
 
   const providerId = user.id
 
-  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
+  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
     const liquidityDoc = firestore
       .collection(`contracts/${contract.id}/liquidity`)
       .doc()

functions/src/emails.ts

@@ -6,8 +6,13 @@ import { Comment } from '../../common/comment'
 import { Contract } from '../../common/contract'
 import { DPM_CREATOR_FEE } from '../../common/fees'
 import { PrivateUser, User } from '../../common/user'
-import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from '../../common/util/format'
+import {
+  formatLargeNumber,
+  formatMoney,
+  formatPercent,
+} from '../../common/util/format'
 import { getValueFromBucket } from '../../common/calculate-dpm'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from '../../common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 import { sendTemplateEmail } from './send-email'
 import { getPrivateUser, getUser } from './utils'
@@ -101,6 +106,17 @@ const toDisplayResolution = (
     return display || resolution
   }
 
+  if (contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
+    const { resolutionValue } = contract
+
+    return resolutionValue
+      ? formatLargeNumber(resolutionValue)
+      : formatNumericProbability(
+          resolutionProbability ?? getProbability(contract),
+          contract
+        )
+  }
+
   if (resolution === 'MKT' && resolutions) return 'MULTI'
   if (resolution === 'CANCEL') return 'N/A'
 

functions/src/place-bet.ts

@@ -70,7 +70,10 @@ export const placebet = newEndpoint({}, async (req, auth) => {
       if (outcomeType == 'BINARY' && mechanism == 'dpm-2') {
         const { outcome } = validate(binarySchema, req.body)
         return getNewBinaryDpmBetInfo(outcome, amount, contract, loanAmount)
-      } else if (outcomeType == 'BINARY' && mechanism == 'cpmm-1') {
+      } else if (
+        (outcomeType == 'BINARY' || outcomeType == 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') &&
+        mechanism == 'cpmm-1'
+      ) {
         const { outcome } = validate(binarySchema, req.body)
         return getNewBinaryCpmmBetInfo(outcome, amount, contract, loanAmount)
       } else if (outcomeType == 'FREE_RESPONSE' && mechanism == 'dpm-2') {

functions/src/redeem-shares.ts

@@ -16,7 +16,11 @@ export const redeemShares = async (userId: string, contractId: string) => {
       return { status: 'error', message: 'Invalid contract' }
 
     const contract = contractSnap.data() as Contract
-    if (contract.outcomeType !== 'BINARY' || contract.mechanism !== 'cpmm-1')
+    const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+    if (
+      !(outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') ||
+      mechanism !== 'cpmm-1'
+    )
       return { status: 'success' }
 
     const betsSnap = await transaction.get(

functions/src/resolve-market.ts

@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ const bodySchema = z.object({
 
 const binarySchema = z.object({
   outcome: z.enum(RESOLUTIONS),
-  probabilityInt: z.number().gte(0).lt(100).optional(),
+  probabilityInt: z.number().gte(0).lte(100).optional(),
 })
 
 const freeResponseSchema = z.union([
@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ const freeResponseSchema = z.union([
     resolutions: z.array(
       z.object({
         answer: z.number().int().nonnegative(),
-        pct: z.number().gte(0).lt(100),
+        pct: z.number().gte(0).lte(100),
       })
     ),
   }),
@@ -53,7 +53,19 @@ const numericSchema = z.object({
   value: z.number().optional(),
 })
 
+const pseudoNumericSchema = z.union([
+  z.object({
+    outcome: z.literal('CANCEL'),
+  }),
+  z.object({
+    outcome: z.literal('MKT'),
+    value: z.number(),
+    probabilityInt: z.number().gte(0).lte(100),
+  }),
+])
+
 const opts = { secrets: ['MAILGUN_KEY'] }
+
 export const resolvemarket = newEndpoint(opts, async (req, auth) => {
   const { contractId } = validate(bodySchema, req.body)
   const userId = auth.uid
@@ -221,12 +233,18 @@ const sendResolutionEmails = async (
 
 function getResolutionParams(contract: Contract, body: string) {
   const { outcomeType } = contract
+
   if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
     return {
       ...validate(numericSchema, body),
       resolutions: undefined,
       probabilityInt: undefined,
     }
+  } else if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
+    return {
+      ...validate(pseudoNumericSchema, body),
+      resolutions: undefined,
+    }
   } else if (outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
     const freeResponseParams = validate(freeResponseSchema, body)
     const { outcome } = freeResponseParams

web/components/bet-panel.tsx

@@ -3,7 +3,11 @@ import React, { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import { partition, sumBy } from 'lodash'
 
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
-import { BinaryContract, CPMMBinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import {
+  BinaryContract,
+  CPMMBinaryContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
+} from 'common/contract'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
 import { Row } from './layout/row'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
@@ -21,7 +25,7 @@ import { APIError, placeBet } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { sellShares } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { AmountInput, BuyAmountInput } from './amount-input'
 import { InfoTooltip } from './info-tooltip'
-import { BinaryOutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
+import { BinaryOutcomeLabel, PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel } from './outcome-label'
 import {
   calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet,
   calculateShares,
@@ -35,6 +39,7 @@ import {
   getCpmmProbability,
   getCpmmLiquidityFee,
 } from 'common/calculate-cpmm'
+import { getFormattedMappedValue } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 import { SellRow } from './sell-row'
 import { useSaveShares } from './use-save-shares'
 import { SignUpPrompt } from './sign-up-prompt'
@@ -42,7 +47,7 @@ import { isIOS } from 'web/lib/util/device'
 import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
 
 export function BetPanel(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
 }) {
   const { contract, className } = props
@@ -81,7 +86,7 @@ export function BetPanel(props: {
 }
 
 export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
   title?: string // Set if BetPanel is on a feed modal
   selected?: 'YES' | 'NO'
@@ -89,7 +94,8 @@ export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, className, title, selected, onBetSuccess } = props
 
-  const { mechanism } = contract
+  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const user = useUser()
   const userBets = useUserContractBets(user?.id, contract.id)
@@ -122,7 +128,12 @@ export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
           <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-2">
             <div>
               You have {formatWithCommas(floorShares)}{' '}
-              <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={sharesOutcome} /> shares
+              {isPseudoNumeric ? (
+                <PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel outcome={sharesOutcome} />
+              ) : (
+                <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={sharesOutcome} />
+              )}{' '}
+              shares
             </div>
 
             {tradeType === 'BUY' && (
@@ -190,12 +201,13 @@ export function BetPanelSwitcher(props: {
 }
 
 function BuyPanel(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   user: User | null | undefined
   selected?: 'YES' | 'NO'
   onBuySuccess?: () => void
 }) {
   const { contract, user, selected, onBuySuccess } = props
+  const isPseudoNumeric = contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const [betChoice, setBetChoice] = useState<'YES' | 'NO' | undefined>(selected)
   const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState<number | undefined>(undefined)
@@ -302,6 +314,9 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
               : 0)
         )} ${betChoice ?? 'YES'} shares`
       : undefined
+
+  const format = getFormattedMappedValue(contract)
+
   return (
     <>
       <YesNoSelector
@@ -309,6 +324,7 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
         btnClassName="flex-1"
         selected={betChoice}
         onSelect={(choice) => onBetChoice(choice)}
+        isPseudoNumeric={isPseudoNumeric}
       />
       <div className="my-3 text-left text-sm text-gray-500">Amount</div>
       <BuyAmountInput
@@ -323,11 +339,13 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
 
       <Col className="mt-3 w-full gap-3">
         <Row className="items-center justify-between text-sm">
-          <div className="text-gray-500">Probability</div>
+          <div className="text-gray-500">
+            {isPseudoNumeric ? 'Estimated value' : 'Probability'}
+          </div>
           <div>
-            {formatPercent(initialProb)}
+            {format(initialProb)}
             <span className="mx-2">→</span>
-            {formatPercent(resultProb)}
+            {format(resultProb)}
           </div>
         </Row>
 
@@ -340,6 +358,8 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
                   <br /> payout if{' '}
                   <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={betChoice ?? 'YES'} />
                 </>
+              ) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
+                'Max payout'
               ) : (
                 <>
                   Payout if <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={betChoice ?? 'YES'} />
@@ -389,7 +409,7 @@ function BuyPanel(props: {
 }
 
 export function SellPanel(props: {
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   userBets: Bet[]
   shares: number
   sharesOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO'
@@ -488,6 +508,10 @@ export function SellPanel(props: {
     }
   }
 
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+  const format = getFormattedMappedValue(contract)
+
   return (
     <>
       <AmountInput
@@ -511,11 +535,13 @@ export function SellPanel(props: {
           <span className="text-neutral">{formatMoney(saleValue)}</span>
         </Row>
         <Row className="items-center justify-between">
-          <div className="text-gray-500">Probability</div>
+          <div className="text-gray-500">
+            {isPseudoNumeric ? 'Estimated value' : 'Probability'}
+          </div>
           <div>
-            {formatPercent(initialProb)}
+            {format(initialProb)}
             <span className="mx-2">→</span>
-            {formatPercent(resultProb)}
+            {format(resultProb)}
           </div>
         </Row>
       </Col>

web/components/bet-row.tsx

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 
 import { BetPanelSwitcher } from './bet-panel'
 import { YesNoSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { Modal } from './layout/modal'
 import { SellButton } from './sell-button'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ import { useSaveShares } from './use-save-shares'
 
 // Inline version of a bet panel. Opens BetPanel in a new modal.
 export default function BetRow(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
   btnClassName?: string
   betPanelClassName?: string
@@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ export default function BetRow(props: {
   return (
     <>
       <YesNoSelector
+        isPseudoNumeric={contract.outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'}
         className={clsx('justify-end', className)}
         btnClassName={clsx('btn-sm w-24', btnClassName)}
         onSelect={(choice) => {

web/components/bets-list.tsx

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { useUserBets } from 'web/hooks/use-user-bets'
 import { Bet } from 'web/lib/firebase/bets'
 import { User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import {
+  formatLargeNumber,
   formatMoney,
   formatPercent,
   formatWithCommas,
@@ -40,6 +41,7 @@ import {
 import { useTimeSinceFirstRender } from 'web/hooks/use-time-since-first-render'
 import { trackLatency } from 'web/lib/firebase/tracking'
 import { NumericContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
 
@@ -366,6 +368,7 @@ export function BetsSummary(props: {
   const { contract, isYourBets, className } = props
   const { resolution, closeTime, outcomeType, mechanism } = contract
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
   const isCpmm = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
   const isClosed = closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
 
@@ -427,6 +430,25 @@ export function BetsSummary(props: {
                   </div>
                 </Col>
               </>
+            ) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
+              <>
+                <Col>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
+                    Payout if {'>='} {formatLargeNumber(contract.max)}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+                    {formatMoney(yesWinnings)}
+                  </div>
+                </Col>
+                <Col>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
+                    Payout if {'<='} {formatLargeNumber(contract.min)}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="whitespace-nowrap">
+                    {formatMoney(noWinnings)}
+                  </div>
+                </Col>
+              </>
             ) : (
               <Col>
                 <div className="whitespace-nowrap text-sm text-gray-500">
@@ -507,13 +529,15 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
   const { isResolved, mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
   const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
   const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   return (
     <div className={clsx('overflow-x-auto', className)}>
       {amountRedeemed > 0 && (
         <>
           <div className="pl-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
-            {amountRedeemed} YES shares and {amountRedeemed} NO shares
+            {amountRedeemed} {isPseudoNumeric ? 'HIGHER' : 'YES'} shares and{' '}
+            {amountRedeemed} {isPseudoNumeric ? 'LOWER' : 'NO'} shares
             automatically redeemed for {formatMoney(amountRedeemed)}.
           </div>
           <Spacer h={4} />
@@ -541,7 +565,7 @@ export function ContractBetsTable(props: {
             )}
             {!isCPMM && !isResolved && <th>Payout if chosen</th>}
             <th>Shares</th>
-            <th>Probability</th>
+            {!isPseudoNumeric && <th>Probability</th>}
             <th>Date</th>
           </tr>
         </thead>
@@ -585,6 +609,7 @@ function BetRow(props: {
 
   const isCPMM = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
   const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const saleAmount = saleBet?.sale?.amount
 
@@ -628,14 +653,18 @@ function BetRow(props: {
             truncate="short"
           />
         )}
+        {isPseudoNumeric &&
+          ' than ' + formatNumericProbability(bet.probAfter, contract)}
       </td>
       <td>{formatMoney(Math.abs(amount))}</td>
       {!isCPMM && !isNumeric && <td>{saleDisplay}</td>}
       {!isCPMM && !isResolved && <td>{payoutIfChosenDisplay}</td>}
       <td>{formatWithCommas(Math.abs(shares))}</td>
-      <td>
+      {!isPseudoNumeric && (
-        {formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
+        <td>
-      </td>
+          {formatPercent(probBefore)} → {formatPercent(probAfter)}
+        </td>
+      )}
       <td>{dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D, h:mma')}</td>
     </tr>
   )

web/components/contract/contract-card.tsx

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import {
   BinaryContract,
   FreeResponseContract,
   NumericContract,
+  PseudoNumericContract,
 } from 'common/contract'
 import {
   AnswerLabel,
@@ -16,7 +17,11 @@ import {
   CancelLabel,
   FreeResponseOutcomeLabel,
 } from '../outcome-label'
-import { getOutcomeProbability, getTopAnswer } from 'common/calculate'
+import {
+  getOutcomeProbability,
+  getProbability,
+  getTopAnswer,
+} from 'common/calculate'
 import { AvatarDetails, MiscDetails, ShowTime } from './contract-details'
 import { getExpectedValue, getValueFromBucket } from 'common/calculate-dpm'
 import { QuickBet, ProbBar, getColor } from './quick-bet'
@@ -24,6 +29,7 @@ import { useContractWithPreload } from 'web/hooks/use-contract'
 import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
 import { track } from '@amplitude/analytics-browser'
 import { trackCallback } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 export function ContractCard(props: {
   contract: Contract
@@ -131,6 +137,13 @@ export function ContractCard(props: {
                 />
               )}
 
+              {outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && (
+                <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation
+                  className="items-center"
+                  contract={contract}
+                />
+              )}
+
               {outcomeType === 'NUMERIC' && (
                 <NumericResolutionOrExpectation
                   className="items-center"
@@ -270,7 +283,9 @@ export function NumericResolutionOrExpectation(props: {
           {resolution === 'CANCEL' ? (
             <CancelLabel />
           ) : (
-            <div className="text-blue-400">{resolutionValue}</div>
+            <div className="text-blue-400">
+              {formatLargeNumber(resolutionValue)}
+            </div>
           )}
         </>
       ) : (
@@ -284,3 +299,42 @@ export function NumericResolutionOrExpectation(props: {
     </Col>
   )
 }
+
+export function PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation(props: {
+  contract: PseudoNumericContract
+  className?: string
+}) {
+  const { contract, className } = props
+  const { resolution, resolutionValue, resolutionProbability } = contract
+  const textColor = `text-blue-400`
+
+  return (
+    <Col className={clsx(resolution ? 'text-3xl' : 'text-xl', className)}>
+      {resolution ? (
+        <>
+          <div className={clsx('text-base text-gray-500')}>Resolved</div>
+
+          {resolution === 'CANCEL' ? (
+            <CancelLabel />
+          ) : (
+            <div className="text-blue-400">
+              {resolutionValue
+                ? formatLargeNumber(resolutionValue)
+                : formatNumericProbability(
+                    resolutionProbability ?? 0,
+                    contract
+                  )}
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </>
+      ) : (
+        <>
+          <div className={clsx('text-3xl', textColor)}>
+            {formatNumericProbability(getProbability(contract), contract)}
+          </div>
+          <div className={clsx('text-base', textColor)}>expected</div>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </Col>
+  )
+}

web/components/contract/contract-overview.tsx

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ import {
   FreeResponseResolutionOrChance,
   BinaryResolutionOrChance,
   NumericResolutionOrExpectation,
+  PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation,
 } from './contract-card'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import BetRow from '../bet-row'
@@ -32,6 +33,7 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
   const user = useUser()
   const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   return (
     <Col className={clsx('mb-6', className)}>
@@ -49,6 +51,13 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
             />
           )}
 
+          {isPseudoNumeric && (
+            <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation
+              contract={contract}
+              className="hidden items-end xl:flex"
+            />
+          )}
+
           {outcomeType === 'NUMERIC' && (
             <NumericResolutionOrExpectation
               contract={contract}
@@ -61,6 +70,11 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
           <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-4 xl:hidden">
             <BinaryResolutionOrChance contract={contract} />
 
+            {tradingAllowed(contract) && <BetRow contract={contract} />}
+          </Row>
+        ) : isPseudoNumeric ? (
+          <Row className="items-center justify-between gap-4 xl:hidden">
+            <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation contract={contract} />
             {tradingAllowed(contract) && <BetRow contract={contract} />}
           </Row>
         ) : (
@@ -86,7 +100,9 @@ export const ContractOverview = (props: {
         />
       </Col>
       <Spacer h={4} />
-      {isBinary && <ContractProbGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />}{' '}
+      {(isBinary || isPseudoNumeric) && (
+        <ContractProbGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />
+      )}{' '}
       {outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' && (
         <AnswersGraph contract={contract} bets={bets} />
       )}

web/components/contract/contract-prob-graph.tsx

@@ -5,16 +5,20 @@ import dayjs from 'dayjs'
 import { memo } from 'react'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import { getInitialProbability } from 'common/calculate'
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { useWindowSize } from 'web/hooks/use-window-size'
+import { getMappedValue } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
+import { formatLargeNumber } from 'common/util/format'
 
 export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   bets: Bet[]
   height?: number
 }) {
   const { contract, height } = props
-  const { resolutionTime, closeTime } = contract
+  const { resolutionTime, closeTime, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isLogScale = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && contract.isLogScale
 
   const bets = props.bets.filter((bet) => !bet.isAnte && !bet.isRedemption)
 
@@ -24,7 +28,10 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
     contract.createdTime,
     ...bets.map((bet) => bet.createdTime),
   ].map((time) => new Date(time))
-  const probs = [startProb, ...bets.map((bet) => bet.probAfter)]
+
+  const f = getMappedValue(contract)
+
+  const probs = [startProb, ...bets.map((bet) => bet.probAfter)].map(f)
 
   const isClosed = !!closeTime && Date.now() > closeTime
   const latestTime = dayjs(
@@ -39,7 +46,11 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
   times.push(latestTime.toDate())
   probs.push(probs[probs.length - 1])
 
-  const yTickValues = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100]
+  const quartiles = [0, 25, 50, 75, 100]
+
+  const yTickValues = isBinary
+    ? quartiles
+    : quartiles.map((x) => x / 100).map(f)
 
   const { width } = useWindowSize()
 
@@ -55,9 +66,13 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
   const totalPoints = width ? (width > 800 ? 300 : 50) : 1
 
   const timeStep: number = latestTime.diff(startDate, 'ms') / totalPoints
+
   const points: { x: Date; y: number }[] = []
+  const s = isBinary ? 100 : 1
+  const c = isLogScale && contract.min === 0 ? 1 : 0
+
   for (let i = 0; i < times.length - 1; i++) {
-    points[points.length] = { x: times[i], y: probs[i] * 100 }
+    points[points.length] = { x: times[i], y: s * probs[i] + c }
     const numPoints: number = Math.floor(
       dayjs(times[i + 1]).diff(dayjs(times[i]), 'ms') / timeStep
     )
@@ -69,17 +84,23 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
           x: dayjs(times[i])
             .add(thisTimeStep * n, 'ms')
             .toDate(),
-          y: probs[i] * 100,
+          y: s * probs[i] + c,
         }
       }
     }
   }
 
-  const data = [{ id: 'Yes', data: points, color: '#11b981' }]
+  const data = [
+    { id: 'Yes', data: points, color: isBinary ? '#11b981' : '#5fa5f9' },
+  ]
 
   const multiYear = !dayjs(startDate).isSame(latestTime, 'year')
   const lessThanAWeek = dayjs(startDate).add(8, 'day').isAfter(latestTime)
 
+  const formatter = isBinary
+    ? formatPercent
+    : (x: DatumValue) => formatLargeNumber(+x.valueOf())
+
   return (
     <div
       className="w-full overflow-visible"
@@ -87,12 +108,20 @@ export const ContractProbGraph = memo(function ContractProbGraph(props: {
     >
       <ResponsiveLine
         data={data}
-        yScale={{ min: 0, max: 100, type: 'linear' }}
+        yScale={
-        yFormat={formatPercent}
+          isBinary
+            ? { min: 0, max: 100, type: 'linear' }
+            : {
+                min: contract.min + c,
+                max: contract.max + c,
+                type: contract.isLogScale ? 'log' : 'linear',
+              }
+        }
+        yFormat={formatter}
         gridYValues={yTickValues}
         axisLeft={{
           tickValues: yTickValues,
-          format: formatPercent,
+          format: formatter,
         }}
         xScale={{
           type: 'time',

web/components/contract/quick-bet.tsx

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 import {
   getOutcomeProbability,
   getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet,
+  getProbability,
   getTopAnswer,
 } from 'common/calculate'
 import { getExpectedValue } from 'common/calculate-dpm'
@@ -25,18 +26,18 @@ import { useSaveShares } from '../use-save-shares'
 import { sellShares } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
 import { calculateCpmmSale, getCpmmProbability } from 'common/calculate-cpmm'
 import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 const BET_SIZE = 10
 
 export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
   const { contract, user } = props
-  const isCpmm = contract.mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
+  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isCpmm = mechanism === 'cpmm-1'
 
   const userBets = useUserContractBets(user.id, contract.id)
   const topAnswer =
-    contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE'
+    outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' ? getTopAnswer(contract) : undefined
-      ? getTopAnswer(contract)
-      : undefined
 
   // TODO: yes/no from useSaveShares doesn't work on numeric contracts
   const { yesFloorShares, noFloorShares, yesShares, noShares } = useSaveShares(
@@ -45,9 +46,9 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
     topAnswer?.number.toString() || undefined
   )
   const hasUpShares =
-    yesFloorShares || (noFloorShares && contract.outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
+    yesFloorShares || (noFloorShares && outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
   const hasDownShares =
-    noFloorShares && yesFloorShares <= 0 && contract.outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC'
+    noFloorShares && yesFloorShares <= 0 && outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC'
 
   const [upHover, setUpHover] = useState(false)
   const [downHover, setDownHover] = useState(false)
@@ -130,25 +131,6 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
     })
   }
 
-  function quickOutcome(contract: Contract, direction: 'UP' | 'DOWN') {
-    if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY') {
-      return direction === 'UP' ? 'YES' : 'NO'
-    }
-    if (contract.outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
-      // TODO: Implement shorting of free response answers
-      if (direction === 'DOWN') {
-        throw new Error("Can't bet against free response answers")
-      }
-      return getTopAnswer(contract)?.id
-    }
-    if (contract.outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
-      // TODO: Ideally an 'UP' bet would be a uniform bet between [current, max]
-      throw new Error("Can't quick bet on numeric markets")
-    }
-  }
-
-  const textColor = `text-${getColor(contract)}`
-
   return (
     <Col
       className={clsx(
@@ -173,14 +155,14 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
           <TriangleFillIcon
             className={clsx(
               'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
-              upHover ? textColor : 'text-gray-400'
+              upHover ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-gray-400'
             )}
           />
         ) : (
           <TriangleFillIcon
             className={clsx(
               'mx-auto h-5 w-5',
-              upHover ? textColor : 'text-gray-200'
+              upHover ? 'text-green-500' : 'text-gray-200'
             )}
           />
         )}
@@ -189,7 +171,7 @@ export function QuickBet(props: { contract: Contract; user: User }) {
       <QuickOutcomeView contract={contract} previewProb={previewProb} />
 
       {/* Down bet triangle */}
-      {contract.outcomeType !== 'BINARY' ? (
+      {outcomeType !== 'BINARY' && outcomeType !== 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' ? (
         <div>
           <div className="peer absolute bottom-0 left-0 right-0 h-[50%] cursor-default"></div>
           <TriangleDownFillIcon
@@ -254,6 +236,25 @@ export function ProbBar(props: { contract: Contract; previewProb?: number }) {
   )
 }
 
+function quickOutcome(contract: Contract, direction: 'UP' | 'DOWN') {
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
+
+  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY' || outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') {
+    return direction === 'UP' ? 'YES' : 'NO'
+  }
+  if (outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE') {
+    // TODO: Implement shorting of free response answers
+    if (direction === 'DOWN') {
+      throw new Error("Can't bet against free response answers")
+    }
+    return getTopAnswer(contract)?.id
+  }
+  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC') {
+    // TODO: Ideally an 'UP' bet would be a uniform bet between [current, max]
+    throw new Error("Can't quick bet on numeric markets")
+  }
+}
+
 function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
   contract: Contract
   previewProb?: number
@@ -261,9 +262,16 @@ function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
 }) {
   const { contract, previewProb, caption } = props
   const { outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+
   // If there's a preview prob, display that instead of the current prob
   const override =
-    previewProb === undefined ? undefined : formatPercent(previewProb)
+    previewProb === undefined
+      ? undefined
+      : isPseudoNumeric
+      ? formatNumericProbability(previewProb, contract)
+      : formatPercent(previewProb)
+
   const textColor = `text-${getColor(contract)}`
 
   let display: string | undefined
@@ -271,6 +279,9 @@ function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
     case 'BINARY':
       display = getBinaryProbPercent(contract)
       break
+    case 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC':
+      display = formatNumericProbability(getProbability(contract), contract)
+      break
     case 'NUMERIC':
       display = formatLargeNumber(getExpectedValue(contract))
       break
@@ -295,11 +306,15 @@ function QuickOutcomeView(props: {
 // Return a number from 0 to 1 for this contract
 // Resolved contracts are set to 1, for coloring purposes (even if NO)
 function getProb(contract: Contract) {
-  const { outcomeType, resolution } = contract
+  const { outcomeType, resolution, resolutionProbability } = contract
-  return resolution
+  return resolutionProbability
+    ? resolutionProbability
+    : resolution
     ? 1
     : outcomeType === 'BINARY'
     ? getBinaryProb(contract)
+    : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+    ? getProbability(contract)
     : outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE'
     ? getOutcomeProbability(contract, getTopAnswer(contract)?.id || '')
     : outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
@@ -316,7 +331,8 @@ function getNumericScale(contract: NumericContract) {
 export function getColor(contract: Contract) {
   // TODO: Try injecting a gradient here
   // return 'primary'
-  const { resolution } = contract
+  const { resolution, outcomeType } = contract
+
   if (resolution) {
     return (
       OUTCOME_TO_COLOR[resolution as resolution] ??
@@ -325,6 +341,8 @@ export function getColor(contract: Contract) {
     )
   }
 
+  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC') return 'blue-400'
+
   if ((contract.closeTime ?? Infinity) < Date.now()) {
     return 'gray-400'
   }

web/components/feed/feed-bets.tsx

@@ -7,13 +7,14 @@ import { Row } from 'web/components/layout/row'
 import { Avatar, EmptyAvatar } from 'web/components/avatar'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { UsersIcon } from '@heroicons/react/solid'
-import { formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
+import { formatMoney, formatPercent } from 'common/util/format'
 import { OutcomeLabel } from 'web/components/outcome-label'
 import { RelativeTimestamp } from 'web/components/relative-timestamp'
 import React, { Fragment } from 'react'
 import { uniqBy, partition, sumBy, groupBy } from 'lodash'
 import { JoinSpans } from 'web/components/join-spans'
 import { UserLink } from '../user-page'
+import { formatNumericProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 export function FeedBet(props: {
   contract: Contract
@@ -75,6 +76,8 @@ export function BetStatusText(props: {
   hideOutcome?: boolean
 }) {
   const { bet, contract, bettor, isSelf, hideOutcome } = props
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
   const { amount, outcome, createdTime } = bet
 
   const bought = amount >= 0 ? 'bought' : 'sold'
@@ -97,7 +100,10 @@ export function BetStatusText(props: {
             value={(bet as any).value}
             contract={contract}
             truncate="short"
-          />
+          />{' '}
+          {isPseudoNumeric
+            ? ' than ' + formatNumericProbability(bet.probAfter, contract)
+            : ' at ' + formatPercent(bet.probAfter)}
         </>
       )}
       <RelativeTimestamp time={createdTime} />

web/components/numeric-resolution-panel.tsx

@@ -6,13 +6,14 @@ import { User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
 import { NumberCancelSelector } from './yes-no-selector'
 import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
 import { ResolveConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button'
+import { NumericContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { APIError, resolveMarket } from 'web/lib/firebase/api-call'
-import { NumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { BucketInput } from './bucket-input'
+import { getPseudoProbability } from 'common/pseudo-numeric'
 
 export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
   creator: User
-  contract: NumericContract
+  contract: NumericContract | PseudoNumericContract
   className?: string
 }) {
   useEffect(() => {
@@ -21,6 +22,7 @@ export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
   }, [])
 
   const { contract, className } = props
+  const { min, max, outcomeType } = contract
 
   const [outcomeMode, setOutcomeMode] = useState<
     'NUMBER' | 'CANCEL' | undefined
@@ -32,15 +34,32 @@ export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>(undefined)
 
   const resolve = async () => {
-    const finalOutcome = outcomeMode === 'NUMBER' ? outcome : 'CANCEL'
+    const finalOutcome =
+      outcomeMode === 'CANCEL'
+        ? 'CANCEL'
+        : outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
+        ? 'MKT'
+        : 'NUMBER'
     if (outcomeMode === undefined || finalOutcome === undefined) return
 
     setIsSubmitting(true)
 
+    const boundedValue = Math.max(Math.min(max, value ?? 0), min)
+
+    const probabilityInt =
+      100 *
+      getPseudoProbability(
+        boundedValue,
+        min,
+        max,
+        outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && contract.isLogScale
+      )
+
     try {
       const result = await resolveMarket({
         outcome: finalOutcome,
         value,
+        probabilityInt,
         contractId: contract.id,
       })
       console.log('resolved', outcome, 'result:', result)
@@ -77,7 +96,7 @@ export function NumericResolutionPanel(props: {
 
       {outcomeMode === 'NUMBER' && (
         <BucketInput
-          contract={contract}
+          contract={contract as any}
           isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
           onBucketChange={(v, o) => (setValue(v), setOutcome(o))}
         />

web/components/outcome-label.tsx

@@ -19,11 +19,15 @@ export function OutcomeLabel(props: {
   value?: number
 }) {
   const { outcome, contract, truncate, value } = props
+  const { outcomeType } = contract
 
-  if (contract.outcomeType === 'BINARY')
+  if (outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC')
+    return <PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel outcome={outcome as any} />
+
+  if (outcomeType === 'BINARY')
     return <BinaryOutcomeLabel outcome={outcome as any} />
 
-  if (contract.outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
+  if (outcomeType === 'NUMERIC')
     return (
       <span className="text-blue-500">
         {value ?? getValueFromBucket(outcome, contract)}
@@ -49,6 +53,15 @@ export function BinaryOutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: resolution }) {
   return <CancelLabel />
 }
 
+export function PseudoNumericOutcomeLabel(props: { outcome: resolution }) {
+  const { outcome } = props
+
+  if (outcome === 'YES') return <HigherLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'NO') return <LowerLabel />
+  if (outcome === 'MKT') return <ProbLabel />
+  return <CancelLabel />
+}
+
 export function BinaryContractOutcomeLabel(props: {
   contract: BinaryContract
   resolution: resolution
@@ -98,6 +111,14 @@ export function YesLabel() {
   return <span className="text-primary">YES</span>
 }
 
+export function HigherLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-primary">HIGHER</span>
+}
+
+export function LowerLabel() {
+  return <span className="text-red-400">LOWER</span>
+}
+
 export function NoLabel() {
   return <span className="text-red-400">NO</span>
 }

web/components/sell-button.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { useUserContractBets } from 'web/hooks/use-user-bets'
 import { useState } from 'react'
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
 
 export function SellButton(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   user: User | null | undefined
   sharesOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | undefined
   shares: number
@@ -16,7 +16,8 @@ export function SellButton(props: {
   const { contract, user, sharesOutcome, shares, panelClassName } = props
   const userBets = useUserContractBets(user?.id, contract.id)
   const [showSellModal, setShowSellModal] = useState(false)
-  const { mechanism } = contract
+  const { mechanism, outcomeType } = contract
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   if (sharesOutcome && user && mechanism === 'cpmm-1') {
     return (
@@ -32,7 +33,10 @@ export function SellButton(props: {
           )}
           onClick={() => setShowSellModal(true)}
         >
-          {'Sell ' + sharesOutcome}
+          Sell{' '}
+          {isPseudoNumeric
+            ? { YES: 'HIGH', NO: 'LOW' }[sharesOutcome]
+            : sharesOutcome}
         </button>
         <div className={'mt-1 w-24 text-center text-sm text-gray-500'}>
           {'(' + Math.floor(shares) + ' shares)'}

web/components/sell-modal.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { CPMMBinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { CPMMBinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { Modal } from './layout/modal'
@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 
 export function SellSharesModal(props: {
   className?: string
-  contract: CPMMBinaryContract
+  contract: CPMMBinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   userBets: Bet[]
   shares: number
   sharesOutcome: 'YES' | 'NO'

web/components/sell-row.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { BinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
+import { BinaryContract, PseudoNumericContract } from 'common/contract'
 import { User } from 'common/user'
 import { useState } from 'react'
 import { Col } from './layout/col'
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ import { useSaveShares } from './use-save-shares'
 import { SellSharesModal } from './sell-modal'
 
 export function SellRow(props: {
-  contract: BinaryContract
+  contract: BinaryContract | PseudoNumericContract
   user: User | null | undefined
   className?: string
 }) {

web/components/yes-no-selector.tsx

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
   btnClassName?: string
   replaceYesButton?: React.ReactNode
   replaceNoButton?: React.ReactNode
+  isPseudoNumeric?: boolean
 }) {
   const {
     selected,
@@ -20,6 +21,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
     btnClassName,
     replaceNoButton,
     replaceYesButton,
+    isPseudoNumeric,
   } = props
 
   const commonClassNames =
@@ -41,7 +43,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
           )}
           onClick={() => onSelect('YES')}
         >
-          Bet YES
+          {isPseudoNumeric ? 'HIGHER' : 'Bet YES'}
         </button>
       )}
       {replaceNoButton ? (
@@ -58,7 +60,7 @@ export function YesNoSelector(props: {
           )}
           onClick={() => onSelect('NO')}
         >
-          Bet NO
+          {isPseudoNumeric ? 'LOWER' : 'Bet NO'}
         </button>
       )}
     </Row>

web/pages/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx

@@ -144,10 +144,12 @@ export function ContractPageContent(
 
   const isCreator = user?.id === creatorId
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
   const isNumeric = outcomeType === 'NUMERIC'
   const allowTrade = tradingAllowed(contract)
   const allowResolve = !isResolved && isCreator && !!user
-  const hasSidePanel = (isBinary || isNumeric) && (allowTrade || allowResolve)
+  const hasSidePanel =
+    (isBinary || isNumeric || isPseudoNumeric) && (allowTrade || allowResolve)
 
   const ogCardProps = getOpenGraphProps(contract)
 
@@ -170,7 +172,7 @@ export function ContractPageContent(
           <BetPanel className="hidden xl:flex" contract={contract} />
         ))}
       {allowResolve &&
-        (isNumeric ? (
+        (isNumeric || isPseudoNumeric ? (
           <NumericResolutionPanel creator={user} contract={contract} />
         ) : (
           <ResolutionPanel creator={user} contract={contract} />
@@ -210,10 +212,11 @@ export function ContractPageContent(
         )}
 
         <ContractOverview contract={contract} bets={bets} />
+
         {isNumeric && (
           <AlertBox
             title="Warning"
-            text="Numeric markets were introduced as an experimental feature and are now deprecated."
+            text="Distributional numeric markets were introduced as an experimental feature and are now deprecated."
           />
         )}
 

web/pages/create.tsx

@@ -85,8 +85,12 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
   const { creator, question, groupId } = props
   const [outcomeType, setOutcomeType] = useState<outcomeType>('BINARY')
   const [initialProb] = useState(50)
+
   const [minString, setMinString] = useState('')
   const [maxString, setMaxString] = useState('')
+  const [isLogScale, setIsLogScale] = useState(false)
+  const [initialValueString, setInitialValueString] = useState('')
+
   const [description, setDescription] = useState('')
   // const [tagText, setTagText] = useState<string>(tag ?? '')
   // const tags = parseWordsAsTags(tagText)
@@ -129,6 +133,18 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
 
   const min = minString ? parseFloat(minString) : undefined
   const max = maxString ? parseFloat(maxString) : undefined
+  const initialValue = initialValueString
+    ? parseFloat(initialValueString)
+    : undefined
+
+  const adjustIsLog = () => {
+    if (min === undefined || max === undefined) return
+    const lengthDiff = Math.log10(max - min)
+    if (lengthDiff > 2) {
+      setIsLogScale(true)
+    }
+  }
+
   // get days from today until the end of this year:
   const daysLeftInTheYear = dayjs().endOf('year').diff(dayjs(), 'day')
 
@@ -145,13 +161,16 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
     // closeTime must be in the future
     closeTime &&
     closeTime > Date.now() &&
-    (outcomeType !== 'NUMERIC' ||
+    (outcomeType !== 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' ||
       (min !== undefined &&
         max !== undefined &&
+        initialValue !== undefined &&
         isFinite(min) &&
         isFinite(max) &&
         min < max &&
-        max - min > 0.01))
+        max - min > 0.01 &&
+        min < initialValue &&
+        initialValue < max))
 
   function setCloseDateInDays(days: number) {
     const newCloseDate = dayjs().add(days, 'day').format('YYYY-MM-DD')
@@ -175,6 +194,8 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
           closeTime,
           min,
           max,
+          initialValue,
+          isLogScale: (min ?? 0) < 0 ? false : isLogScale,
           groupId: selectedGroup?.id,
           tags: category ? [category] : undefined,
         })
@@ -220,6 +241,7 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
         choicesMap={{
           'Yes / No': 'BINARY',
           'Free response': 'FREE_RESPONSE',
+          Numeric: 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC',
         }}
         isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
         className={'col-span-4'}
@@ -232,38 +254,89 @@ export function NewContract(props: {
 
       <Spacer h={6} />
 
-      {outcomeType === 'NUMERIC' && (
+      {outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC' && (
-        <div className="form-control items-start">
+        <>
-          <label className="label gap-2">
+          <div className="form-control mb-2 items-start">
-            <span className="mb-1">Range</span>
+            <label className="label gap-2">
-            <InfoTooltip text="The minimum and maximum numbers across the numeric range." />
+              <span className="mb-1">Range</span>
-          </label>
+              <InfoTooltip text="The minimum and maximum numbers across the numeric range." />
+            </label>
 
-          <Row className="gap-2">
+            <Row className="gap-2">
-            <input
+              <input
-              type="number"
+                type="number"
-              className="input input-bordered"
+                className="input input-bordered"
-              placeholder="MIN"
+                placeholder="MIN"
-              onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
-              onChange={(e) => setMinString(e.target.value)}
+                onChange={(e) => setMinString(e.target.value)}
-              min={Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER}
+                onBlur={adjustIsLog}
-              max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
+                min={Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER}
-              disabled={isSubmitting}
+                max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
-              value={minString ?? ''}
+                disabled={isSubmitting}
-            />
+                value={minString ?? ''}
-            <input
+              />
-              type="number"
+              <input
-              className="input input-bordered"
+                type="number"
-              placeholder="MAX"
+                className="input input-bordered"
-              onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                placeholder="MAX"
-              onChange={(e) => setMaxString(e.target.value)}
+                onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
-              min={Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER}
+                onChange={(e) => setMaxString(e.target.value)}
-              max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
+                onBlur={adjustIsLog}
-              disabled={isSubmitting}
+                min={Number.MIN_SAFE_INTEGER}
-              value={maxString}
+                max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
-            />
+                disabled={isSubmitting}
-          </Row>
+                value={maxString}
-        </div>
+              />
+            </Row>
+
+            {!(min !== undefined && min < 0) && (
+              <Row className="mt-1 ml-2 mb-2 items-center">
+                <span className="mr-2 text-sm">Log scale</span>{' '}
+                <input
+                  type="checkbox"
+                  checked={isLogScale}
+                  onChange={() => setIsLogScale(!isLogScale)}
+                  disabled={isSubmitting}
+                />
+              </Row>
+            )}
+
+            {min !== undefined && max !== undefined && min >= max && (
+              <div className="mt-2 mb-2 text-sm text-red-500">
+                The maximum value must be greater than the minimum.
+              </div>
+            )}
+          </div>
+          <div className="form-control mb-2 items-start">
+            <label className="label gap-2">
+              <span className="mb-1">Initial value</span>
+              <InfoTooltip text="The starting value for this market. Should be in between min and max values." />
+            </label>
+
+            <Row className="gap-2">
+              <input
+                type="number"
+                className="input input-bordered"
+                placeholder="Initial value"
+                onClick={(e) => e.stopPropagation()}
+                onChange={(e) => setInitialValueString(e.target.value)}
+                max={Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER}
+                disabled={isSubmitting}
+                value={initialValueString ?? ''}
+              />
+            </Row>
+
+            {initialValue !== undefined &&
+              min !== undefined &&
+              max !== undefined &&
+              min < max &&
+              (initialValue <= min || initialValue >= max) && (
+                <div className="mt-2 mb-2 text-sm text-red-500">
+                  Initial value must be in between {min} and {max}.{' '}
+                </div>
+              )}
+          </div>
+        </>
       )}
 
       <div className="form-control max-w-[265px] items-start">

web/pages/embed/[username]/[contractSlug].tsx

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ import {
   BinaryResolutionOrChance,
   FreeResponseResolutionOrChance,
   NumericResolutionOrExpectation,
+  PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation,
 } from 'web/components/contract/contract-card'
 import { ContractDetails } from 'web/components/contract/contract-details'
 import { ContractProbGraph } from 'web/components/contract/contract-prob-graph'
@@ -79,6 +80,7 @@ function ContractEmbed(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
   const { question, outcomeType } = contract
 
   const isBinary = outcomeType === 'BINARY'
+  const isPseudoNumeric = outcomeType === 'PSEUDO_NUMERIC'
 
   const href = `https://${DOMAIN}${contractPath(contract)}`
 
@@ -110,13 +112,18 @@ function ContractEmbed(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
 
           {isBinary && (
             <Row className="items-center gap-4">
-              {/* this fails typechecking, but it doesn't explode because we will
+              <BetRow contract={contract} betPanelClassName="scale-75" />
-              never */}
-              <BetRow contract={contract as any} betPanelClassName="scale-75" />
               <BinaryResolutionOrChance contract={contract} />
             </Row>
           )}
 
+          {isPseudoNumeric && (
+            <Row className="items-center gap-4">
+              <BetRow contract={contract} betPanelClassName="scale-75" />
+              <PseudoNumericResolutionOrExpectation contract={contract} />
+            </Row>
+          )}
+
           {outcomeType === 'FREE_RESPONSE' && (
             <FreeResponseResolutionOrChance
               contract={contract}
@@ -133,7 +140,7 @@ function ContractEmbed(props: { contract: Contract; bets: Bet[] }) {
       </div>
 
       <div className="mx-1" style={{ paddingBottom }}>
-        {isBinary && (
+        {(isBinary || isPseudoNumeric) && (
           <ContractProbGraph
             contract={contract}
             bets={bets}