Show bet probability change and payout when creating answer

common/calculate.ts

@@ -156,19 +156,23 @@ export function calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) {
   const { totalShares, pool, totalBets } = contract
   const { shares, amount, outcome } = bet
 
+  const prevShares = totalShares[outcome] ?? 0
+  const prevPool = pool[outcome] ?? 0
+  const prevTotalBet = totalBets[outcome] ?? 0
+
   const newContract = {
     ...contract,
     totalShares: {
       ...totalShares,
-      [outcome]: totalShares[outcome] + shares,
+      [outcome]: prevShares + shares,
     },
     pool: {
       ...pool,
-      [outcome]: pool[outcome] + amount,
+      [outcome]: prevPool + amount,
     },
     totalBets: {
       ...totalBets,
-      [outcome]: totalBets[outcome] + amount,
+      [outcome]: prevTotalBet + amount,
     },
   }
 

web/components/answers-panel.tsx

@@ -376,6 +376,25 @@ function CreateAnswerInput(props: { contract: Contract }) {
     }
   }
 
+  const resultProb = getProbabilityAfterBet(
+    contract.totalShares,
+    'new',
+    betAmount ?? 0
+  )
+
+  const shares = calculateShares(contract.totalShares, betAmount ?? 0, 'new')
+
+  const currentPayout = betAmount
+    ? calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract, {
+        outcome: 'new',
+        amount: betAmount,
+        shares,
+      } as Bet)
+    : 0
+
+  const currentReturn = betAmount ? (currentPayout - betAmount) / betAmount : 0
+  const currentReturnPercent = (currentReturn * 100).toFixed() + '%'
+
   return (
     <Col className="gap-4 p-4 bg-gray-50 rounded">
       <Col className="flex-1 gap-2">
@@ -390,11 +409,17 @@ function CreateAnswerInput(props: { contract: Contract }) {
         />
         <div />
         <Col
-          className={clsx('sm:flex-row', text ? 'justify-between' : 'self-end')}
+          className={clsx(
+            'sm:flex-row gap-4',
+            text ? 'justify-between' : 'self-end'
+          )}
         >
           {text && (
+            <>
               <Col className="gap-2 mt-1">
-              <div className="text-gray-500 text-sm">Bet amount</div>
+                <div className="text-gray-500 text-sm">
+                  Ante bet (cannot be sold)
+                </div>
                 <AmountInput
                   amount={betAmount}
                   onChange={setBetAmount}
@@ -404,6 +429,27 @@ function CreateAnswerInput(props: { contract: Contract }) {
                   disabled={isSubmitting}
                 />
               </Col>
+              <Col className="gap-2 mt-1">
+                <div className="text-sm text-gray-500">Implied probability</div>
+                <Row>
+                  <div>{formatPercent(0)}</div>
+                  <div className="mx-2">→</div>
+                  <div>{formatPercent(resultProb)}</div>
+                </Row>
+                <Row className="mt-2 mb-1 items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
+                  Payout if chosen
+                  <InfoTooltip
+                    text={`Current payout for ${formatWithCommas(
+                      shares
+                    )} / ${formatWithCommas(shares)} shares`}
+                  />
+                </Row>
+                <div>
+                  {formatMoney(currentPayout)}
+                  &nbsp; <span>(+{currentReturnPercent})</span>
+                </div>
+              </Col>
+            </>
           )}
           <button
             className={clsx(