2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
import { cloneElement } from 'react'
|
2021-12-20 04:06:30 +00:00
|
|
|
|
import { Page } from '../components/page'
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
import { SEO } from '../components/SEO'
|
|
|
|
|
import styles from './about.module.css'
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
export default function About() {
|
|
|
|
|
return (
|
2021-12-20 04:06:30 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<Page>
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<SEO title="About" description="About" url="/about" />
|
2021-12-19 05:27:52 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<Contents />
|
2021-12-20 04:06:30 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</Page>
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Return a copy of the JSX node tree, with the style applied
|
|
|
|
|
const cloneWithStyle = (node: JSX.Element) => {
|
|
|
|
|
// Base case: Node is a string
|
|
|
|
|
if (!node.type) return node
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Find the appropriate style from the module.css
|
|
|
|
|
const className = styles[node.type]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Recursively call this function on each child
|
|
|
|
|
let children = node.props.children
|
|
|
|
|
if (children?.map) {
|
|
|
|
|
// Multiple child elements
|
|
|
|
|
children = children.map(cloneWithStyle)
|
|
|
|
|
} else if (children) {
|
|
|
|
|
// Single child element
|
|
|
|
|
children = cloneWithStyle(children)
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Note: This probably strips out any existing classNames
|
|
|
|
|
return cloneElement(node, { className, children })
|
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
// Copied from https://www.notion.so/mantic/About-Mantic-Markets-7c44bc161356474cad54cba2d2973fe2
|
|
|
|
|
// And then run through https://markdowntohtml.com/
|
|
|
|
|
function Contents() {
|
|
|
|
|
return cloneWithStyle(
|
|
|
|
|
<div>
|
2021-12-19 23:38:10 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h1 id="about">About</h1>
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<hr />
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Mantic Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created
|
|
|
|
|
prediction markets.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Our mission is to expand humanity's collective knowledge by making
|
|
|
|
|
prediction markets accessible to all.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h1 id="faq">FAQ</h1>
|
|
|
|
|
<hr />
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="what-are-prediction-markets-">What are prediction markets?</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
<strong>
|
|
|
|
|
Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of
|
|
|
|
|
future events.
|
|
|
|
|
</strong>
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US
|
|
|
|
|
presidential election?"
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I
|
|
|
|
|
might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total).
|
|
|
|
|
This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability
|
|
|
|
|
one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to
|
|
|
|
|
bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to
|
|
|
|
|
the{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis">
|
|
|
|
|
market's best estimate
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
. This is the power of prediction markets!
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="how-does-mantic-markets-work-">How does Mantic Markets work?</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<ol>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<strong>
|
|
|
|
|
Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question.
|
|
|
|
|
</strong>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
2021-12-21 00:04:19 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove
|
|
|
|
|
its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" Then use the
|
|
|
|
|
information to plan your trip.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I
|
|
|
|
|
enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your
|
|
|
|
|
family and friends.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<strong>
|
|
|
|
|
Anyone can bet on a market using Mantic Dollars (M$), our platform
|
|
|
|
|
currency.
|
|
|
|
|
</strong>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
</ol>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
2021-12-21 19:52:27 +00:00
|
|
|
|
You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor,
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
you'll win Mantic Dollars from people who bet against you.
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
{/* <p>
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
If you run out of money, you can purchase more at a rate of $1 USD to M$
|
|
|
|
|
100. (Note that Mantic Dollars are not convertible to cash and can only
|
|
|
|
|
be used within our platform.)
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</p> */}
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<aside>
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
💡 We're still in Open Beta; we'll tweak the amounts of Mantic
|
|
|
|
|
Dollars given out and periodically reset balances before our official
|
|
|
|
|
launch.
|
|
|
|
|
{/* If you purchase
|
|
|
|
|
any M$ during the beta, we promise to honor that when we launch! */}
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</aside>
|
|
|
|
|
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
{/* <h3 id="why-do-i-want-to-bet-with-play-money-">
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Why do I want to bet with play-money?
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Prediction markets work best when bettors have skin in the game. By
|
|
|
|
|
restricting the supply of our currency, you know that the other bettors
|
|
|
|
|
have thought carefully about where to spend their M$, and that the
|
|
|
|
|
market prices line up with reality.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>By buying M$, you support:</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>The continued development of Mantic Markets</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>Cash payouts to market creators (TBD)</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>Forecasting tournaments for bettors (TBD)</li>
|
|
|
|
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
We also have some thoughts on how to reward bettors: physical swag,
|
|
|
|
|
exclusive conversations with market creators, NFTs...? If you have
|
|
|
|
|
ideas, let us know!
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</p> */}
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="can-prediction-markets-work-without-real-money-">
|
|
|
|
|
Can prediction markets work without real money?
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets
|
|
|
|
|
provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="http://www.electronicmarkets.org/fileadmin/user_upload/doc/Issues/Volume_16/Issue_01/V16I1_Statistical_Tests_of_Real-Money_versus_Play-Money_Prediction_Markets.pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
sports betting
|
|
|
|
|
</a>{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/2284098/google-bets-on-value-of-prediction-markets.html">
|
|
|
|
|
Google
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on
|
|
|
|
|
top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace,
|
|
|
|
|
bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to
|
|
|
|
|
better-calibrated forecasts over time.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="how-are-markets-resolved-">How are markets resolved?</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
2021-12-24 21:06:01 +00:00
|
|
|
|
The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns 1% of
|
|
|
|
|
the betting pool for their effort.
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a
|
|
|
|
|
diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will
|
|
|
|
|
lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market
|
|
|
|
|
resolution.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many
|
|
|
|
|
new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective
|
|
|
|
|
or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the
|
|
|
|
|
Metaverse in 2023?")
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="why-is-this-important-">Why is this important?</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would
|
|
|
|
|
not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can
|
|
|
|
|
influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to
|
|
|
|
|
scientific research and education.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Prediction markets can predict{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343">
|
|
|
|
|
which research papers will replicate
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most
|
|
|
|
|
tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or, which startup idea
|
|
|
|
|
is the most promising.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society
|
|
|
|
|
become wiser.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
|
|
|
|
|
How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind?
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
{/* <p>
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin
|
|
|
|
|
in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency
|
|
|
|
|
they use on our platform.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
With Mantic Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more
|
|
|
|
|
carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts.
|
|
|
|
|
The result is more accurate predictions.
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
</p> */}
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
2021-12-21 20:02:24 +00:00
|
|
|
|
Mantic Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to
|
2021-12-18 23:19:16 +00:00
|
|
|
|
quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power
|
|
|
|
|
to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own
|
|
|
|
|
judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number,
|
|
|
|
|
variety, and usefulness of prediction markets.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="how-does-betting-in-a-market-work-on-a-technical-level-">
|
|
|
|
|
How does betting in a market work on a technical level?
|
|
|
|
|
</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Mantic Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on a
|
|
|
|
|
dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the
|
|
|
|
|
time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pot when
|
|
|
|
|
the event ends).
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that
|
|
|
|
|
you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always
|
|
|
|
|
getting fair odds.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low
|
|
|
|
|
without any risk to the market creator.
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h3 id="who-are-we-">Who are we?</h3>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>Mantic Markets is currently a team of three:</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>James Grugett</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>Stephen Grugett</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>Austin Chen</li>
|
|
|
|
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
We've previously launched consumer-facing startups (
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://throne.live/">Throne</a>,{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="http://oneword.games/platform">One Word</a>), and worked at top
|
|
|
|
|
tech and finance companies (Google, Susquehanna).
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h1 id="talk-to-us-">Talk to us!</h1>
|
|
|
|
|
<hr />
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us — unlike
|
|
|
|
|
praying mantises, we don’t bite!
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
Email: <code>info@mantic.markets</code>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
Office hours:{' '}
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://calendly.com/austinchen/mantic">Calendly</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>Discord:</li>
|
|
|
|
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<p>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh">
|
|
|
|
|
Join the Mantic Markets Discord Server!
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</p>
|
|
|
|
|
<h1 id="further-reading">Further Reading</h1>
|
|
|
|
|
<hr />
|
|
|
|
|
<ul>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market">
|
|
|
|
|
Wikipedia: Prediction markets
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets">
|
|
|
|
|
Gwern: Prediction markets
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.91.7441&rep=rep1&type=pdf">
|
|
|
|
|
David Pennock: Dynamic parimutuel markets
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://sideways-view.com/2019/10/27/prediction-markets-for-internet-points/">
|
|
|
|
|
Paul Christiano: Prediction markets for internet points
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://mantic.markets/simulator">
|
|
|
|
|
Dynamic parimutuel market simulator
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
<li>
|
|
|
|
|
<a href="https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/02/covid-prediction-markets-at-polymarket/">
|
|
|
|
|
Zvi Mowshowitz on resolving prediction markets
|
|
|
|
|
</a>
|
|
|
|
|
</li>
|
|
|
|
|
</ul>
|
|
|
|
|
</div>
|
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
}
|