manifold/web/components/numeric-bet-panel.tsx

214 lines
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Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
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import clsx from 'clsx'
import { useState } from 'react'
import { getNumericBetsInfo } from 'common/new-bet'
import { Bet } from 'common/bet'
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
import {
calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet,
getOutcomeProbability,
} from 'common/calculate'
import { NumericContract } from 'common/contract'
import { formatPercent, formatMoney } from 'common/util/format'
import { useUser } from 'web/hooks/use-user'
import { APIError, placeBet } from 'web/lib/firebase/api'
import { User } from 'web/lib/firebase/users'
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
import { BuyAmountInput } from './amount-input'
import { BucketInput } from './bucket-input'
import { Col } from './layout/col'
import { Row } from './layout/row'
import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer'
import { BetSignUpPrompt } from './sign-up-prompt'
import { track } from 'web/lib/service/analytics'
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
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export function NumericBetPanel(props: {
contract: NumericContract
className?: string
}) {
const { contract, className } = props
const user = useUser()
return (
<Col className={clsx('rounded-md bg-white px-8 py-6', className)}>
<div className="mb-6 text-2xl">Place your bet</div>
<NumericBuyPanel contract={contract} user={user} />
<BetSignUpPrompt />
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
</Col>
)
}
function NumericBuyPanel(props: {
contract: NumericContract
user: User | null | undefined
onBuySuccess?: () => void
}) {
const { contract, user, onBuySuccess } = props
const [bucketChoice, setBucketChoice] = useState<string | undefined>(
undefined
)
const [value, setValue] = useState<number | undefined>(undefined)
const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState<number | undefined>(undefined)
const [error, setError] = useState<string | undefined>()
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
const [wasSubmitted, setWasSubmitted] = useState(false)
function onBetChange(newAmount: number | undefined) {
setWasSubmitted(false)
setBetAmount(newAmount)
}
async function submitBet() {
if (
!user ||
!betAmount ||
bucketChoice === undefined ||
value === undefined
)
return
setError(undefined)
setIsSubmitting(true)
await placeBet({
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
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amount: betAmount,
outcome: bucketChoice,
value,
contractId: contract.id,
})
.then((r) => {
console.log('placed bet. Result:', r)
setIsSubmitting(false)
setWasSubmitted(true)
setBetAmount(undefined)
if (onBuySuccess) onBuySuccess()
})
.catch((e) => {
if (e instanceof APIError) {
setError(e.toString())
} else {
console.error(e)
setError('Error placing bet')
}
setIsSubmitting(false)
})
track('bet', {
location: 'numeric panel',
outcomeType: contract.outcomeType,
slug: contract.slug,
contractId: contract.id,
amount: betAmount,
value,
})
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
}
const betDisabled = isSubmitting || !betAmount || !bucketChoice || error
const { newBet, newPool, newTotalShares, newTotalBets } = getNumericBetsInfo(
value ?? 0,
bucketChoice ?? 'NaN',
betAmount ?? 0,
contract
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
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)
const { probAfter: outcomeProb, shares } = newBet
const initialProb = bucketChoice
? getOutcomeProbability(contract, bucketChoice)
: 0
const currentPayout =
betAmount && bucketChoice
? calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(
{
...contract,
pool: newPool,
totalShares: newTotalShares,
totalBets: newTotalBets,
},
{
outcome: bucketChoice,
amount: betAmount,
shares,
} as Bet
)
: 0
const currentReturn =
betAmount && bucketChoice ? (currentPayout - betAmount) / betAmount : 0
const currentReturnPercent = formatPercent(currentReturn)
return (
<>
<div className="my-3 text-left text-sm text-gray-500">
Predicted value
</div>
<BucketInput
contract={contract}
isSubmitting={isSubmitting}
onBucketChange={(v, b) => (setValue(v), setBucketChoice(b))}
/>
<div className="my-3 text-left text-sm text-gray-500">Bet amount</div>
<BuyAmountInput
inputClassName="w-full max-w-none"
amount={betAmount}
onChange={onBetChange}
error={error}
setError={setError}
disabled={isSubmitting}
/>
<Col className="mt-3 w-full gap-3">
<Row className="items-center justify-between text-sm">
<div className="text-gray-500">Probability</div>
<Row>
<div>{formatPercent(initialProb)}</div>
<div className="mx-2"></div>
<div>{formatPercent(outcomeProb)}</div>
</Row>
</Row>
<Row className="items-center justify-between gap-2 text-sm">
<Row className="flex-nowrap items-center gap-2 whitespace-nowrap text-gray-500">
<div>
Estimated
<br /> payout if correct
</div>
</Row>
<Row className="flex-wrap items-end justify-end gap-2">
<span className="whitespace-nowrap">
{formatMoney(currentPayout)}
</span>
<span>(+{currentReturnPercent})</span>
</Row>
</Row>
</Col>
<Spacer h={8} />
{user && (
<button
className={clsx(
'btn flex-1',
betDisabled ? 'btn-disabled' : 'btn-primary',
isSubmitting ? 'loading' : ''
)}
onClick={betDisabled ? undefined : submitBet}
>
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{isSubmitting ? 'Submitting...' : 'Submit'}
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
</button>
)}
{wasSubmitted && <div className="mt-4">Bet submitted!</div>}
</>
)
}