2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
import { CPMMBinaryContract } from 'common/contract'
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
import { Col } from 'web/components/layout/col'
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
import { Spacer } from 'web/components/layout/spacer'
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
import { Page } from 'web/components/page'
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
import { SEO } from 'web/components/SEO'
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
import { Title } from 'web/components/title'
|
|
|
|
import {
|
|
|
|
StateElectionMarket,
|
|
|
|
StateElectionMap,
|
|
|
|
} from 'web/components/usa-map/state-election-map'
|
2022-10-09 22:02:28 +00:00
|
|
|
import { useTracking } from 'web/hooks/use-tracking'
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
import { getContractFromSlug } from 'web/lib/firebase/contracts'
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const senateMidterms: StateElectionMarket[] = [
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'AZ',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'BTE',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-blake-masters-win-the-arizona',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'OH',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'BTE',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-jd-vance-win-the-ohio-senate-s',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'WI',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'BTE',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-ron-johnson-be-reelected-in-th',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'FL',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'BTE',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-marco-rubio-be-reelected-to-th',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'PA',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'MattP',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-dr-oz-be-elected-to-the-us-sen',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'GA',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'NcyRocks',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-3d2432ba6d79',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'NV',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'NcyRocks',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'NC',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'NcyRocks',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-6f1a901e1fcf',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'NH',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'NcyRocks',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-us-sen-23194a72f1b7',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'UT',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-mike-lee-win-the-2022-utah-sen',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
2022-09-30 06:30:45 +00:00
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'CO',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-michael-bennet-win-the-2022-co',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
const governorMidterms: StateElectionMarket[] = [
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'TX',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'LarsDoucet',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'republicans-will-win-the-2022-texas',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'GA',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'MattP',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-stacey-abrams-win-the-2022-geo',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'FL',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'Tetraspace',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'if-charlie-crist-is-the-democratic',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'PA',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'JonathanMast',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2022-penn',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'PA',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'JonathanMast',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2022-penn',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'CO',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'ScottLawrence',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-jared-polis-be-reelected-as-co',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'OR',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'Tetraspace',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'if-tina-kotek-is-the-2022-democrati',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'MD',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'Tetraspace',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'if-wes-moore-is-the-2022-democratic',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'AK',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-republican-win-the-2022-alas',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'AZ',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-republican-win-the-2022-ariz',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'AZ',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-republican-win-the-2022-ariz',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: true,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'WI',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-wiscon',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'NV',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-nevada',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'KS',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-kansas',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'NV',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-new-me',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
{
|
|
|
|
state: 'ME',
|
|
|
|
creatorUsername: 'SG',
|
|
|
|
slug: 'will-a-democrat-win-the-2022-maine',
|
|
|
|
isWinRepublican: false,
|
|
|
|
},
|
|
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
export async function getStaticProps() {
|
|
|
|
const senateContracts = await Promise.all(
|
2022-10-06 00:23:47 +00:00
|
|
|
senateMidterms.map((m) =>
|
|
|
|
getContractFromSlug(m.slug).then((c) => c ?? null)
|
|
|
|
)
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const governorContracts = await Promise.all(
|
2022-10-06 00:23:47 +00:00
|
|
|
governorMidterms.map((m) =>
|
|
|
|
getContractFromSlug(m.slug).then((c) => c ?? null)
|
|
|
|
)
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return {
|
|
|
|
props: { senateContracts, governorContracts },
|
|
|
|
revalidate: 60, // regenerate after a minute
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
const App = (props: {
|
|
|
|
senateContracts: CPMMBinaryContract[]
|
|
|
|
governorContracts: CPMMBinaryContract[]
|
|
|
|
}) => {
|
|
|
|
const { senateContracts, governorContracts } = props
|
|
|
|
|
2022-10-09 22:02:28 +00:00
|
|
|
useTracking('view midterms 2022')
|
|
|
|
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
return (
|
|
|
|
<Page className="">
|
|
|
|
<Col className="items-center justify-center">
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<Title text="2022 US Midterm Elections" className="mt-2" />
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
<SEO
|
|
|
|
title="2022 US Midterm Elections"
|
|
|
|
description="Bet on the midterm elections using prediction markets. See Manifold's state-by-state breakdown of senate and governor races."
|
|
|
|
/>
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<div className="mt-2 text-2xl">Senate</div>
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
<StateElectionMap
|
|
|
|
markets={senateMidterms}
|
|
|
|
contracts={senateContracts}
|
|
|
|
/>
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
<iframe
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/TomShlomi/will-the-gop-control-the-us-senate"
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<Spacer h={8} />
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<div className="mt-8 text-2xl">Governors</div>
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
<StateElectionMap
|
|
|
|
markets={governorMidterms}
|
|
|
|
contracts={governorContracts}
|
|
|
|
/>
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<iframe
|
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/democrats-go-down-at-least-one-gove"
|
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
|
|
|
<Spacer h={8} />
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<div className="mt-8 text-2xl">House</div>
|
2022-09-30 06:30:45 +00:00
|
|
|
<iframe
|
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-democrats-maintain-control-of"
|
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-09-30 06:30:45 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<Spacer h={8} />
|
2022-10-05 23:20:40 +00:00
|
|
|
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<div className="mt-8 text-2xl">Related markets</div>
|
|
|
|
<iframe
|
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/balance-of-power-in-us-congress-aft"
|
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
2022-09-30 06:30:45 +00:00
|
|
|
<iframe
|
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/SG/will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-pre"
|
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-09-30 06:30:45 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
<iframe
|
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/will-the-2022-alaska-house-general"
|
|
|
|
title="Will the 2022 Alaska House General Nonspecial Election result in a Condorcet failure?"
|
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<iframe
|
|
|
|
src="https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/how-many-supreme-court-justices-wil-1e597c3853ad"
|
|
|
|
title="Will the 2022 Alaska House General Nonspecial Election result in a Condorcet failure?"
|
|
|
|
frameBorder="0"
|
2022-10-05 22:12:42 +00:00
|
|
|
className="mt-8 flex h-96 w-full"
|
2022-10-02 20:09:20 +00:00
|
|
|
></iframe>
|
2022-09-27 22:50:43 +00:00
|
|
|
</Col>
|
|
|
|
</Page>
|
|
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
export default App
|