manifold/web/pages/make-predictions.tsx

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import clsx from 'clsx'
import Link from 'next/link'
import { useState } from 'react'
import { Col } from '../components/layout/col'
import { Row } from '../components/layout/row'
import { Spacer } from '../components/layout/spacer'
import { Linkify } from '../components/linkify'
import { Page } from '../components/page'
import { Title } from '../components/title'
import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user'
import { createContract } from '../lib/firebase/api-call'
import { compute, Contract, path } from '../lib/firebase/contracts'
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type Prediction = {
question: string
description: string
initialProb: number
createdUrl?: string
}
function toPrediction(contract: Contract): Prediction {
const { startProb } = compute(contract)
return {
question: contract.question,
description: contract.description,
initialProb: startProb * 100,
createdUrl: path(contract),
}
}
function PredictionRow(props: { prediction: Prediction }) {
const { prediction } = props
return (
<Row className="gap-4 justify-between hover:bg-gray-300 p-4">
<Col className="justify-between">
<div className="font-medium text-indigo-700 mb-2">
<Linkify text={prediction.question} />
</div>
<div className="text-gray-500 text-sm">{prediction.description}</div>
</Col>
{/* Initial probability */}
<div className="ml-auto">
<div className="text-3xl">
<div className="text-primary">
{prediction.initialProb.toFixed(0)}%
<div className="text-lg">chance</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
{/* Current probability; hidden for now */}
{/* <div>
<div className="text-3xl">
<div className="text-primary">
{prediction.initialProb}%<div className="text-lg">chance</div>
</div>
</div>
</div> */}
</Row>
)
}
function PredictionList(props: { predictions: Prediction[] }) {
const { predictions } = props
return (
<Col className="divide-gray-300 divide-y border-gray-300 border rounded-md">
{predictions.map((prediction) =>
prediction.createdUrl ? (
<Link href={prediction.createdUrl}>
<a>
<PredictionRow
key={prediction.question}
prediction={prediction}
/>
</a>
</Link>
) : (
<PredictionRow key={prediction.question} prediction={prediction} />
)
)}
</Col>
)
}
const TEST_VALUE = `1. Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%: 80%
2. Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year): 5%
3. Yang is New York mayor: 80%
4. Newsom recalled as CA governor: 5%
5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%
6. Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket): 20%`
export default function MakePredictions() {
const user = useUser()
const [predictionsString, setPredictionsString] = useState('')
const [description, setDescription] = useState('')
const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false)
const [createdContracts, setCreatedContracts] = useState<Contract[]>([])
const bulkPlaceholder = `e.g.
${TEST_VALUE}
...
`
const predictions: Prediction[] = []
// Parse bulkContracts, then run createContract for each
const lines = predictionsString ? predictionsString.split('\n') : []
for (const line of lines) {
// Parse line with regex
const matches = line.match(/^(.*):\s*(\d+)%\s*$/) || ['', '', '']
const [_, question, prob] = matches
if (!question || !prob) {
console.error('Invalid prediction: ', line)
continue
}
predictions.push({
question,
description,
initialProb: parseInt(prob),
})
}
async function createContracts() {
if (!user) {
// TODO: Convey error with snackbar/toast
console.error('You need to be signed in!')
return
}
setIsSubmitting(true)
for (const prediction of predictions) {
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const contract = await createContract({
question: prediction.question,
description: prediction.description,
initialProb: prediction.initialProb,
}).then((r) => (r.data as any).contract)
setCreatedContracts((prev) => [...prev, contract])
}
setPredictionsString('')
setIsSubmitting(false)
}
return (
<Page>
<Title text="Make Predictions" />
<div className="w-full bg-gray-100 rounded-lg shadow-xl px-6 py-4">
<form>
<div className="form-control">
<label className="label">
<span className="label-text">Prediction</span>
<div className="text-sm text-gray-500 ml-1">
One prediction per line, each formatted like "The sun will rise
tomorrow: 99%"
</div>
</label>
<textarea
className="textarea h-60 textarea-bordered"
placeholder={bulkPlaceholder}
value={predictionsString}
onChange={(e) => setPredictionsString(e.target.value || '')}
></textarea>
</div>
</form>
<Spacer h={4} />
<div className="form-control w-full">
<label className="label">
<span className="label-text">Tags</span>
</label>
<input
type="text"
placeholder="e.g. #ACX2021 #World"
className="input"
value={description}
onChange={(e) => setDescription(e.target.value || '')}
/>
</div>
{predictions.length > 0 && (
<div>
<Spacer h={4} />
<label className="label">
<span className="label-text">Preview</span>
</label>
<PredictionList predictions={predictions} />
</div>
)}
<Spacer h={4} />
<div className="flex justify-end my-4">
<button
type="submit"
className={clsx('btn btn-primary', {
loading: isSubmitting,
})}
disabled={predictions.length === 0 || isSubmitting}
onClick={(e) => {
e.preventDefault()
createContracts()
}}
>
Create all
</button>
</div>
</div>
{createdContracts.length > 0 && (
<>
<Spacer h={16} />
<Title text="Created Predictions" />
<div className="w-full bg-gray-100 rounded-lg shadow-xl px-6 py-4">
<PredictionList predictions={createdContracts.map(toPrediction)} />
</div>
</>
)}
</Page>
)
}