manifold/common/antes.ts

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import { range } from 'lodash'
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
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import { Bet, NumericBet } from './bet'
import { getDpmProbability, getValueFromBucket } from './calculate-dpm'
import {
CPMMBinaryContract,
DPMBinaryContract,
FreeResponseContract,
MultipleChoiceContract,
NumericContract,
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
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} from './contract'
import { User } from './user'
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
import { LiquidityProvision } from './liquidity-provision'
import { noFees } from './fees'
import { ENV_CONFIG } from './envs/constants'
import { Answer } from './answer'
export const FIXED_ANTE = ENV_CONFIG.fixedAnte ?? 100
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export const HOUSE_LIQUIDITY_PROVIDER_ID = 'IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2' // @ManifoldMarkets' id
export const DEV_HOUSE_LIQUIDITY_PROVIDER_ID = '94YYTk1AFWfbWMpfYcvnnwI1veP2' // @ManifoldMarkets' id
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
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export function getCpmmInitialLiquidity(
providerId: string,
contract: CPMMBinaryContract,
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
anteId: string,
amount: number
) {
const { createdTime, p } = contract
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
const lp: LiquidityProvision = {
id: anteId,
userId: providerId,
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
contractId: contract.id,
createdTime,
isAnte: true,
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
amount: amount,
liquidity: amount,
p: p,
pool: { YES: 0, NO: 0 },
}
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
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return lp
}
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export function getAnteBets(
creator: User,
contract: DPMBinaryContract,
yesAnteId: string,
noAnteId: string
) {
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
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const p = getDpmProbability(contract.totalShares)
const ante = contract.totalBets.YES + contract.totalBets.NO
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const { createdTime } = contract
const yesBet: Bet = {
id: yesAnteId,
userId: creator.id,
contractId: contract.id,
amount: p * ante,
shares: Math.sqrt(p) * ante,
outcome: 'YES',
probBefore: p,
probAfter: p,
createdTime,
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isAnte: true,
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
fees: noFees,
}
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const noBet: Bet = {
id: noAnteId,
userId: creator.id,
contractId: contract.id,
amount: (1 - p) * ante,
shares: Math.sqrt(1 - p) * ante,
outcome: 'NO',
probBefore: p,
probAfter: p,
createdTime,
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isAnte: true,
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
fees: noFees,
}
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return { yesBet, noBet }
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}
Free response (#47) * Answer datatype and MULTI outcome type for Contract * Create free answer contract * Automatically sort Tailwind classes with Prettier (#45) * Add Prettier Tailwind plugin * Autoformat Tailwind classes with Prettier * Allow for non-binary contracts in contract page and related components * logo with white inside, transparent bg * Create answer * Some UI for showing answers * Answer bet panel * Convert rest of calcuate file to generic multi contracts * Working betting with ante'd NONE answer * Numbered answers. Layout & calculation tweaks * Can bet. More layout tweaks! * Resolve answer UI * Resolve multi market * Resolved market UI * Fix feed and cards for multi contracts * Sell bets. Various fixes * Tweaks for trades page * Always dev mode * Create answer bet has isAnte: true * Fix card showing 0% for multi contracts * Fix grouped bets feed for multi outcomes * None option converted to none of the above label at bottom of list. Button to resolve none. * Tweaks to no answers yet, resolve button layout * Show ante bets on new answers in the feed * Update placeholder text for description * Consolidate firestore rules for subcollections * Remove Contract and Bet type params. Use string type for outcomes. * Increase char limit to 10k for answers. Preserve line breaks. * Don't show resolve options after answer chosen * Fix type error in script * Remove NONE resolution option * Change outcomeType to include 'MULTI' and 'FREE_RESPONSE' * Show bet probability change and payout when creating answer * User info change: also change answers * Append answers to contract field 'answers' * sort trades by resolved * Don't include trailing !:,.; in links * Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney * Revert "Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney" This reverts commit 2f7ab1842916bc903e60231cbf45b934db2f2658. * Consistently floor user.balance * Expand create panel on focus From Richard Hanania's feedback * welcome email: include link to manifold * Fix home page in dev on branches that are not free-response * Close emails (#50) * script init for stephen dev * market close emails * order of operations * template email * sendMarketCloseEmail: handle unsubscribe * remove debugging * marketCloseEmails: every hour * sendMarketCloseEmails: check undefined * marketCloseEmails: "every hour" => "every 1 hours" * Set up a read API using Vercel serverless functions (#49) * Set up read API using Vercel serverless functions Featuring: /api/v0/markets /api/v0/market/[contractId] /api/v0/slug/[contractSlug] * Include tags in API * Tweaks. Remove filter for only binary contract * Fix bet probability change for NO bets * Put back isProd calculation Co-authored-by: Austin Chen <akrolsmir@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <95266179+mantikoros@users.noreply.github.com>
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export function getFreeAnswerAnte(
anteBettorId: string,
contract: FreeResponseContract,
Free response (#47) * Answer datatype and MULTI outcome type for Contract * Create free answer contract * Automatically sort Tailwind classes with Prettier (#45) * Add Prettier Tailwind plugin * Autoformat Tailwind classes with Prettier * Allow for non-binary contracts in contract page and related components * logo with white inside, transparent bg * Create answer * Some UI for showing answers * Answer bet panel * Convert rest of calcuate file to generic multi contracts * Working betting with ante'd NONE answer * Numbered answers. Layout & calculation tweaks * Can bet. More layout tweaks! * Resolve answer UI * Resolve multi market * Resolved market UI * Fix feed and cards for multi contracts * Sell bets. Various fixes * Tweaks for trades page * Always dev mode * Create answer bet has isAnte: true * Fix card showing 0% for multi contracts * Fix grouped bets feed for multi outcomes * None option converted to none of the above label at bottom of list. Button to resolve none. * Tweaks to no answers yet, resolve button layout * Show ante bets on new answers in the feed * Update placeholder text for description * Consolidate firestore rules for subcollections * Remove Contract and Bet type params. Use string type for outcomes. * Increase char limit to 10k for answers. Preserve line breaks. * Don't show resolve options after answer chosen * Fix type error in script * Remove NONE resolution option * Change outcomeType to include 'MULTI' and 'FREE_RESPONSE' * Show bet probability change and payout when creating answer * User info change: also change answers * Append answers to contract field 'answers' * sort trades by resolved * Don't include trailing !:,.; in links * Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney * Revert "Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney" This reverts commit 2f7ab1842916bc903e60231cbf45b934db2f2658. * Consistently floor user.balance * Expand create panel on focus From Richard Hanania's feedback * welcome email: include link to manifold * Fix home page in dev on branches that are not free-response * Close emails (#50) * script init for stephen dev * market close emails * order of operations * template email * sendMarketCloseEmail: handle unsubscribe * remove debugging * marketCloseEmails: every hour * sendMarketCloseEmails: check undefined * marketCloseEmails: "every hour" => "every 1 hours" * Set up a read API using Vercel serverless functions (#49) * Set up read API using Vercel serverless functions Featuring: /api/v0/markets /api/v0/market/[contractId] /api/v0/slug/[contractSlug] * Include tags in API * Tweaks. Remove filter for only binary contract * Fix bet probability change for NO bets * Put back isProd calculation Co-authored-by: Austin Chen <akrolsmir@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <95266179+mantikoros@users.noreply.github.com>
2022-02-17 23:00:19 +00:00
anteBetId: string
) {
const { totalBets, totalShares } = contract
const amount = totalBets['0']
const shares = totalShares['0']
const { createdTime } = contract
const anteBet: Bet = {
id: anteBetId,
userId: anteBettorId,
Free response (#47) * Answer datatype and MULTI outcome type for Contract * Create free answer contract * Automatically sort Tailwind classes with Prettier (#45) * Add Prettier Tailwind plugin * Autoformat Tailwind classes with Prettier * Allow for non-binary contracts in contract page and related components * logo with white inside, transparent bg * Create answer * Some UI for showing answers * Answer bet panel * Convert rest of calcuate file to generic multi contracts * Working betting with ante'd NONE answer * Numbered answers. Layout & calculation tweaks * Can bet. More layout tweaks! * Resolve answer UI * Resolve multi market * Resolved market UI * Fix feed and cards for multi contracts * Sell bets. Various fixes * Tweaks for trades page * Always dev mode * Create answer bet has isAnte: true * Fix card showing 0% for multi contracts * Fix grouped bets feed for multi outcomes * None option converted to none of the above label at bottom of list. Button to resolve none. * Tweaks to no answers yet, resolve button layout * Show ante bets on new answers in the feed * Update placeholder text for description * Consolidate firestore rules for subcollections * Remove Contract and Bet type params. Use string type for outcomes. * Increase char limit to 10k for answers. Preserve line breaks. * Don't show resolve options after answer chosen * Fix type error in script * Remove NONE resolution option * Change outcomeType to include 'MULTI' and 'FREE_RESPONSE' * Show bet probability change and payout when creating answer * User info change: also change answers * Append answers to contract field 'answers' * sort trades by resolved * Don't include trailing !:,.; in links * Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney * Revert "Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney" This reverts commit 2f7ab1842916bc903e60231cbf45b934db2f2658. * Consistently floor user.balance * Expand create panel on focus From Richard Hanania's feedback * welcome email: include link to manifold * Fix home page in dev on branches that are not free-response * Close emails (#50) * script init for stephen dev * market close emails * order of operations * template email * sendMarketCloseEmail: handle unsubscribe * remove debugging * marketCloseEmails: every hour * sendMarketCloseEmails: check undefined * marketCloseEmails: "every hour" => "every 1 hours" * Set up a read API using Vercel serverless functions (#49) * Set up read API using Vercel serverless functions Featuring: /api/v0/markets /api/v0/market/[contractId] /api/v0/slug/[contractSlug] * Include tags in API * Tweaks. Remove filter for only binary contract * Fix bet probability change for NO bets * Put back isProd calculation Co-authored-by: Austin Chen <akrolsmir@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <95266179+mantikoros@users.noreply.github.com>
2022-02-17 23:00:19 +00:00
contractId: contract.id,
amount,
shares,
outcome: '0',
probBefore: 0,
probAfter: 1,
createdTime,
isAnte: true,
Cfmm (#64) * cpmm initial commit: common logic, cloud functions * remove unnecessary property * contract type * rename 'calculate.ts' => 'calculate-dpm.ts' * rename dpm calculations * use focus hook * mechanism-agnostic calculations * bet panel: use new calculations * use new calculations * delete markets cloud function * use correct contract type in scripts / functions * calculate fixed payouts; bets list calculations * new bet: use calculateCpmmPurchase * getOutcomeProbabilityAfterBet * use deductFixedFees * fix auto-refactor * fix antes * separate logic to payouts-dpm, payouts-fixed * liquidity provision tracking * remove comment * liquidity label * create liquidity provision even if no ante bet * liquidity fee * use all bets for getFixedCancelPayouts * updateUserBalance: allow negative balances * store initialProbability in contracts * turn on liquidity fee; turn off creator fee * Include time param in tweet url, so image preview is re-fetched * share redemption * cpmm ContractBetsTable display * formatMoney: handle minus zero * filter out redemption bets * track fees on contract and bets; change fee schedule for cpmm markets; only pay out creator fees at resolution * small fixes * small fixes * Redeem shares pays back loans first * Fix initial point on graph * calculateCpmmPurchase: deduct creator fee * Filter out redemption bets from feed * set env to dev for user-testing purposes * creator fees messaging * new cfmm: k = y^(1-p) * n^p * addCpmmLiquidity * correct price function * enable fees * handle overflow * liquidity provision tracking * raise fees * Fix merge error * fix dpm free response payout for single outcome * Fix DPM payout calculation * Remove hardcoding as dev Co-authored-by: James Grugett <jahooma@gmail.com>
2022-03-15 22:27:51 +00:00
fees: noFees,
Free response (#47) * Answer datatype and MULTI outcome type for Contract * Create free answer contract * Automatically sort Tailwind classes with Prettier (#45) * Add Prettier Tailwind plugin * Autoformat Tailwind classes with Prettier * Allow for non-binary contracts in contract page and related components * logo with white inside, transparent bg * Create answer * Some UI for showing answers * Answer bet panel * Convert rest of calcuate file to generic multi contracts * Working betting with ante'd NONE answer * Numbered answers. Layout & calculation tweaks * Can bet. More layout tweaks! * Resolve answer UI * Resolve multi market * Resolved market UI * Fix feed and cards for multi contracts * Sell bets. Various fixes * Tweaks for trades page * Always dev mode * Create answer bet has isAnte: true * Fix card showing 0% for multi contracts * Fix grouped bets feed for multi outcomes * None option converted to none of the above label at bottom of list. Button to resolve none. * Tweaks to no answers yet, resolve button layout * Show ante bets on new answers in the feed * Update placeholder text for description * Consolidate firestore rules for subcollections * Remove Contract and Bet type params. Use string type for outcomes. * Increase char limit to 10k for answers. Preserve line breaks. * Don't show resolve options after answer chosen * Fix type error in script * Remove NONE resolution option * Change outcomeType to include 'MULTI' and 'FREE_RESPONSE' * Show bet probability change and payout when creating answer * User info change: also change answers * Append answers to contract field 'answers' * sort trades by resolved * Don't include trailing !:,.; in links * Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney * Revert "Stop flooring inputs into formatMoney" This reverts commit 2f7ab1842916bc903e60231cbf45b934db2f2658. * Consistently floor user.balance * Expand create panel on focus From Richard Hanania's feedback * welcome email: include link to manifold * Fix home page in dev on branches that are not free-response * Close emails (#50) * script init for stephen dev * market close emails * order of operations * template email * sendMarketCloseEmail: handle unsubscribe * remove debugging * marketCloseEmails: every hour * sendMarketCloseEmails: check undefined * marketCloseEmails: "every hour" => "every 1 hours" * Set up a read API using Vercel serverless functions (#49) * Set up read API using Vercel serverless functions Featuring: /api/v0/markets /api/v0/market/[contractId] /api/v0/slug/[contractSlug] * Include tags in API * Tweaks. Remove filter for only binary contract * Fix bet probability change for NO bets * Put back isProd calculation Co-authored-by: Austin Chen <akrolsmir@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com> Co-authored-by: mantikoros <95266179+mantikoros@users.noreply.github.com>
2022-02-17 23:00:19 +00:00
}
return anteBet
}
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
export function getMultipleChoiceAntes(
creator: User,
contract: MultipleChoiceContract,
answers: string[],
betDocIds: string[]
) {
const { totalBets, totalShares } = contract
const amount = totalBets['0']
const shares = totalShares['0']
const p = 1 / answers.length
const { createdTime } = contract
const bets: Bet[] = answers.map((answer, i) => ({
id: betDocIds[i],
userId: creator.id,
contractId: contract.id,
amount,
shares,
outcome: i.toString(),
probBefore: p,
probAfter: p,
createdTime,
isAnte: true,
fees: noFees,
}))
const { username, name, avatarUrl } = creator
const answerObjects: Answer[] = answers.map((answer, i) => ({
id: i.toString(),
number: i,
contractId: contract.id,
createdTime,
userId: creator.id,
username,
name,
avatarUrl,
text: answer,
}))
return { bets, answerObjects }
}
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
export function getNumericAnte(
2022-05-28 18:43:57 +00:00
anteBettorId: string,
contract: NumericContract,
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
ante: number,
newBetId: string
) {
const { bucketCount, createdTime } = contract
const betAnte = ante / bucketCount
const betShares = Math.sqrt(ante ** 2 / bucketCount)
const allOutcomeShares = Object.fromEntries(
range(0, bucketCount).map((_, i) => [i, betShares])
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
)
const allBetAmounts = Object.fromEntries(
range(0, bucketCount).map((_, i) => [i, betAnte])
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
)
const anteBet: NumericBet = {
id: newBetId,
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userId: anteBettorId,
Numeric range markets!! (#146) * Numeric contract type * Create market numeric type * Add numeric graph (coded without testing) * Outline of numeric bet panel * Update bet panel logic * create numeric contracts * remove batching for antes for numeric markets * Remove focus * numeric market range [1, 100] * Zoom graph * Hide bet panels * getNumericBets * Add numeric resolution panel * Use getNumericBets in bet panel calc * Switch bucket count to 100 * Parallelize ante creation * placeBet for numeric markets * halve std of numeric bets * Update resolveMarket with numeric type * Set min and max for contract * lower std for numeric bets * calculateNumericDpmShares: use sorted order * Use min and max to map the input * Fix probability calc * normpdf variance mislabeled * range input * merge * change numeric graph color * fix getNewContract params * bet panel labels * validation * number input * fix bucketing * bucket input, numeric resolution panel * outcome label * merge * numeric bet panel on mobile * Make text underneath filled green answer bar selectable * Default to 'all' feed category when loading page. * fix numeric resolution panel * fix numeric bet panel calculations * display numeric resolution * don't render NumericBetPanel for non numeric markets * numeric bets: store shares, bet amounts across buckets in each bet object * restore your bets for numeric markets * numeric pnl calculations * remove hasUserHitManaLimit * contrain contract type * handle undefined allOutcomeShares * numeric ante bet amount * use correct amount for numeric dpm payouts * change numeric graph/outcome color * numeric constants * hack to show correct numeric payout in calculateDpmPayoutAfterCorrectBet * remove comment * fix ante display in bet list * halve bucket count * cast to NumericContract * fix merge imports * OUTCOME_TYPES * typo * lower bucket count to 200 * store raw numeric value with bet * store raw numeric resolution value * number input max length * create page: min, max to undefined if not numeric market * numeric resolution formatting * expected value for numeric markets * expected value for numeric markets * rearrange lines for readability * move normalpdf to util/math * show bets tab * check if outcomeMode is undefined * remove extraneous auto-merge cruft * hide comment status for numeric markets * import Co-authored-by: mantikoros <sgrugett@gmail.com>
2022-05-19 17:42:03 +00:00
contractId: contract.id,
amount: ante,
allBetAmounts,
outcome: '0',
value: getValueFromBucket('0', contract),
shares: betShares,
allOutcomeShares,
probBefore: 0,
probAfter: 1 / bucketCount,
createdTime,
isAnte: true,
fees: noFees,
}
return anteBet
}