63 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
63 lines
2.1 KiB
Markdown
# Nuño's deads imple election simulator
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## First round: just consider the base rates.
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- [x] Get past electoral college results since 2000
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- [x] Get number of electors for each state with the new census
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- [x] Combine the two to get an initial base rates analysis
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This initial approach gives a 25% to republicans winning in the 2024 election. Why is this? Well, consider the number of electoral college votes:
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| Year | Republican electoral college votes |
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| ---- | --- |
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| 2000 | 271 |
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| 2004 | 286 |
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| 2008 | 173 |
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| 2012 | 206 |
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| 2016 | 304 |
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| 2020 | 232 |
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| Year | Democrat electoral college votes
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| ---- | --- |
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| 2000 | 266 |
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| 2004 | 251 |
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| 2008 | 365 |
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| 2012 | 332 |
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| 2016 | 227 |
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| 2020 | 232 |
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When Democrats won with Obama, they won by a lot, whereas when Republicans won with Bush and Trump, they won by a smaller amount. Or, in other words, this initial approach *doesn't take into account that states are correlated*.
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Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions using Laplace's law?
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- [ ] Consider conditional probabilities
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- See how other models account for the correlation
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- [ ] Add uncertainty using Laplace's law of succession?
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- Maybe only do this for contested states? Alabama is not going to turn Democratic?
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## Second round: just consider polls
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- [x] Download and format
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- [x] Read
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- [x] Add date of poll
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- [x] Consider what the standards error should be
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- [x] Consider how to aggregate polls?
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- One extreme: Just look at the most recent one
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- [x] Another extreme: Aggregate very naïvely, add up all samples together?
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- [x] Aggregate polls?
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- [x] Exclude polls older than one month?
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- [ ] Exclude partisan polls
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- [ ] ...
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https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/274211/calculating-the-probability-of-someone-winning-from-a-poll
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This time, the republicans win by a mile.
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What is happening?
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- Trump polling ok in Minessota,
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- No polls in Iowa yet
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- Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina
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- In part because of the Kennedy/West/Stein vote.
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- Biden is poling well in Colorado
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- Not that many polls yet, in general
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