2024-election-modelling/output.txt

789 lines
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Plaintext

State: Kansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Kentucky
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Mississippi
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Oregon
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Alaska
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: District of Columbia
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Idaho
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Indiana
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
State: South Carolina
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Utah
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Michigan
Votes: 15
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 852.000000
Mean R: 52.347418
Std of mean R: 1.711083
Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 811.780000
Mean R: 54.054054
Std of mean R: 1.749116
Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 587.052000
Mean R: 51.932367
Std of mean R: 2.062088
Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 558.000000
Mean R: 51.612903
Std of mean R: 2.115567
Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 492.800000
Mean R: 51.250000
Std of mean R: 2.251640
Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 539.220000
Mean R: 51.162791
Std of mean R: 2.152631
Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3840.000000
Mean R: 52.230859
Std of mean R: 0.806068
Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176
State: Nevada
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 52.173913
Std of mean R: 2.126129
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 52.173913
Std of mean R: 2.126129
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
State: Pennsylvania
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 353.420000
Mean R: 48.780488
Std of mean R: 2.658859
Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 546.000000
Mean R: 51.648352
Std of mean R: 2.138639
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 882.960000
Mean R: 51.282051
Std of mean R: 1.682119
Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 680.000000
Mean R: 48.235294
Std of mean R: 1.916218
Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 658.750000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 1.946879
Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3121.000000
Mean R: 50.500940
Std of mean R: 0.894955
Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
State: Arkansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: California
Votes: 54
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 921.400000
Mean R: 36.470588
Std of mean R: 1.585750
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 921.000000
Mean R: 36.470588
Std of mean R: 1.586094
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
State: Iowa
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
State: Louisiana
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Arizona
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 377.250000
Mean R: 52.000000
Std of mean R: 2.572217
Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 420.000000
Mean R: 52.857143
Std of mean R: 2.435764
Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 438.600000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 2.385970
Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 534.000000
Mean R: 52.808989
Std of mean R: 2.160294
Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.61081447580304 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1769.000000
Mean R: 52.389186
Std of mean R: 1.187435
Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
State: North Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Virginia
Votes: 13
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
State: Washington
Votes: 12
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 510.000000
Mean R: 43.529412
Std of mean R: 2.195419
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 510.000000
Mean R: 43.529412
Std of mean R: 2.195419
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
State: Wyoming
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Delaware
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Illinois
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Maryland
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Minnesota
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 522.880000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.186007
Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 522.000000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.187849
Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
State: West Virginia
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: New Jersey
Votes: 14
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 768.000000
Mean R: 46.614583
Std of mean R: 1.800079
Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 768.000000
Mean R: 46.614583
Std of mean R: 1.800079
Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
State: Rhode Island
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Tennessee
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 711.020000
Mean R: 65.753425
Std of mean R: 1.779618
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 711.000000
Mean R: 65.753425
Std of mean R: 1.779643
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
State: Texas
Votes: 40
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 929.000000
Mean R: 54.574812
Std of mean R: 1.633566
Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 938.280000
Mean R: 57.142857
Std of mean R: 1.615572
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1867.000000
Mean R: 55.865216
Std of mean R: 1.149183
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
State: Montana
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: New Mexico
Votes: 5
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
State: New York
Votes: 28
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Vermont
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Colorado
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 556.160000
Mean R: 44.318182
Std of mean R: 2.106434
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 556.000000
Mean R: 44.318182
Std of mean R: 2.106737
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
State: Hawaii
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Maine
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Massachusetts
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 741.480000
Mean R: 37.837838
Std of mean R: 1.781052
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 741.000000
Mean R: 37.837838
Std of mean R: 1.781628
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
State: Wisconsin
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 50.000000
Std of mean R: 2.128141
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 830.000000
Mean R: 52.289157
Std of mean R: 1.733705
Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1382.000000
Mean R: 51.374819
Std of mean R: 1.344472
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
State: North Carolina
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 883.920000
Mean R: 51.724138
Std of mean R: 1.680758
Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1106.790000
Mean R: 51.898734
Std of mean R: 1.501841
Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 53.260870
Std of mean R: 2.123611
Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 526.440000
Mean R: 52.439024
Std of mean R: 2.176598
Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 493.800000
Mean R: 52.612394
Std of mean R: 2.246989
Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3562.000000
Mean R: 52.245190
Std of mean R: 0.836922
Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
State: Ohio
Votes: 17
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
State: Connecticut
Votes: 7
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Florida
Votes: 30
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 838.000000
Mean R: 58.711217
Std of mean R: 1.700805
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 743.750000
Mean R: 54.117647
Std of mean R: 1.827169
Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1581.000000
Mean R: 56.551288
Std of mean R: 1.246648
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
State: Nebraska
Votes: 5
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
State: New Hampshire
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
State: South Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Alabama
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Georgia
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 522.000000
Mean R: 50.574713
Std of mean R: 2.188296
Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 646.000000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 1.965998
Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1168.000000
Mean R: 51.232877
Std of mean R: 1.462570
Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
State: Missouri
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Oklahoma
Votes: 7
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
[ 144, 145): 0.01% (0%)
[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
[ 150, 151): 0.01% (0%)
[ 151, 152): 0.01% (0%)
[ 152, 153): 0.01% (0%)
[ 153, 154): 0.01% (0%)
[ 154, 155): 0.01% (0%)
[ 155, 156): 0.01% (0%)
[ 156, 157): 0.01% (0%)
[ 157, 158): 0.01% (0%)
[ 158, 159): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 159, 160): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 160, 161): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 161, 162): █ 0.01% (0%)
[ 162, 163): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 163, 164): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 164, 165): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 165, 166): ██ 0.03% (0%)
[ 166, 167): ██ 0.03% (0%)
[ 167, 168): ██ 0.03% (0%)
[ 168, 169): ███ 0.04% (0%)
[ 169, 170): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 170, 171): ███ 0.04% (0%)
[ 171, 172): ██ 0.04% (1%)
[ 172, 173): ███ 0.05% (1%)
[ 173, 174): ███ 0.04% (1%)
[ 174, 175): ████ 0.06% (1%)
[ 175, 176): ████ 0.06% (1%)
[ 176, 177): ████ 0.06% (1%)
[ 177, 178): █████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 178, 179): █████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 179, 180): ██████ 0.09% (1%)
[ 180, 181): ████ 0.06% (1%)
[ 181, 182): █████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 182, 183): ███████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 183, 184): ███████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 184, 185): ██████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 185, 186): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
[ 186, 187): █████████ 0.13% (2%)
[ 187, 188): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
[ 188, 189): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 189, 190): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 190, 191): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
[ 191, 192): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 192, 193): ███████████ 0.16% (3%)
[ 193, 194): ██████████████ 0.20% (3%)
[ 194, 195): ████████████ 0.18% (3%)
[ 195, 196): ████████████ 0.17% (3%)
[ 196, 197): ████████████ 0.17% (3%)
[ 197, 198): █████████████ 0.18% (3%)
[ 198, 199): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%)
[ 199, 200): ████████████████ 0.22% (4%)
[ 200, 201): ████████████████ 0.23% (4%)
[ 201, 202): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%)
[ 202, 203): ███████████████ 0.21% (5%)
[ 203, 204): ████████████████████ 0.28% (5%)
[ 204, 205): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%)
[ 205, 206): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%)
[ 206, 207): ███████████████████ 0.27% (6%)
[ 207, 208): █████████████████████ 0.29% (6%)
[ 208, 209): █████████████████████ 0.30% (6%)
[ 209, 210): ███████████████████████ 0.33% (7%)
[ 210, 211): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (7%)
[ 211, 212): █████████████████████████ 0.35% (7%)
[ 212, 213): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (8%)
[ 213, 214): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (8%)
[ 214, 215): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (8%)
[ 215, 216): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%)
[ 216, 217): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%)
[ 217, 218): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%)
[ 218, 219): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%)
[ 219, 220): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (11%)
[ 220, 221): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.52% (11%)
[ 221, 222): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (12%)
[ 222, 223): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (12%)
[ 223, 224): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%)
[ 224, 225): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%)
[ 225, 226): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (14%)
[ 226, 227): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (14%)
[ 227, 228): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.55% (15%)
[ 228, 229): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (16%)
[ 229, 230): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (16%)
[ 230, 231): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%)
[ 231, 232): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%)
[ 232, 233): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (18%)
[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (19%)
[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (19%)
[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (20%)
[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (21%)
[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (22%)
[ 238, 239): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (22%)
[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (23%)
[ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (24%)
[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (25%)
[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (25%)
[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (26%)
[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (27%)
[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (28%)
[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (29%)
[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (30%)
[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (30%)
[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (31%)
[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (32%)
[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (33%)
[ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (34%)
[ 253, 254): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (35%)
[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (36%)
[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (37%)
[ 256, 257): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (38%)
[ 257, 258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (39%)
[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (40%)
[ 259, 260): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (41%)
[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (42%)
[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (42%)
[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (43%)
[ 263, 264): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (44%)
[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (45%)
[ 265, 266): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (46%)
[ 266, 267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (47%)
[ 267, 268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (48%)
[ 268, 269): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (49%)
[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (50%)
[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (51%)
[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (52%)
[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (53%)
[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (54%)
[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (55%)
[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (56%)
[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (57%)
[ 277, 278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (58%)
[ 278, 279): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (59%)
[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (60%)
[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (61%)
[ 281, 282): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (62%)
[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (63%)
[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (63%)
[ 284, 285): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (64%)
[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (65%)
[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (66%)
[ 287, 288): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (67%)
[ 288, 289): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (68%)
[ 289, 290): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (69%)
[ 290, 291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (70%)
[ 291, 292): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (70%)
[ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (71%)
[ 293, 294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (72%)
[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (73%)
[ 295, 296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (74%)
[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (74%)
[ 297, 298): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (75%)
[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (76%)
[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (77%)
[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (77%)
[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (78%)
[ 302, 303): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (79%)
[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (79%)
[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (80%)
[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (81%)
[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (81%)
[ 307, 308): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (82%)
[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (83%)
[ 309, 310): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (83%)
[ 310, 311): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (84%)
[ 311, 312): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (84%)
[ 312, 313): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (85%)
[ 313, 314): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (85%)
[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (86%)
[ 315, 316): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (86%)
[ 316, 317): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (87%)
[ 317, 318): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (87%)
[ 318, 319): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (88%)
[ 319, 320): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (88%)
[ 320, 321): ██████████████████████████████ 0.42% (89%)
[ 321, 322): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (89%)
[ 322, 323): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (89%)
[ 323, 324): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%)
[ 324, 325): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (90%)
[ 325, 326): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%)
[ 326, 327): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (91%)
[ 327, 328): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (91%)
[ 328, 329): █████████████████████ 0.30% (91%)
[ 329, 330): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (92%)
[ 330, 331): ████████████████████████ 0.33% (92%)
[ 331, 332): ███████████████████████ 0.32% (92%)
[ 332, 333): ███████████████████████ 0.32% (93%)
[ 333, 334): █████████████████████ 0.29% (93%)
[ 334, 335): ███████████████████ 0.26% (93%)
[ 335, 336): █████████████████ 0.24% (94%)
[ 336, 337): ███████████████████ 0.27% (94%)
[ 337, 338): ███████████████████ 0.27% (94%)
[ 338, 339): ██████████████████ 0.26% (94%)
[ 339, 340): █████████████████ 0.24% (95%)
[ 340, 341): ███████████████ 0.21% (95%)
[ 341, 342): ████████████████ 0.23% (95%)
[ 342, 343): ███████████████ 0.22% (95%)
[ 343, 344): ████████████████ 0.22% (96%)
[ 344, 345): ███████████████ 0.21% (96%)
[ 345, 346): ██████████████ 0.19% (96%)
[ 346, 347): █████████████ 0.19% (96%)
[ 347, 348): ███████████████ 0.21% (96%)
[ 348, 349): █████████████ 0.18% (97%)
[ 349, 350): ████████████ 0.17% (97%)
[ 350, 351): ███████████ 0.16% (97%)
[ 351, 352): ██████████ 0.14% (97%)
[ 352, 353): ████████████ 0.18% (97%)
[ 353, 354): ██████████ 0.14% (97%)
[ 354, 355): ██████████ 0.15% (97%)
[ 355, 356): ██████████ 0.14% (98%)
[ 356, 357): █████████ 0.13% (98%)
[ 357, 358): █████████ 0.13% (98%)
[ 358, 359): ████████ 0.12% (98%)
[ 359, 360): ███████ 0.11% (98%)
[ 360, 361): ████████ 0.12% (98%)
[ 361, 362): ███████ 0.11% (98%)
[ 362, 363): ███████ 0.10% (98%)
[ 363, 364): ██████ 0.09% (99%)
[ 364, 365): ██████ 0.09% (99%)
[ 365, 366): ███████ 0.10% (99%)
[ 366, 367): █████ 0.07% (99%)
[ 367, 368): ██████ 0.08% (99%)
[ 368, 369): █████ 0.07% (99%)
[ 369, 370): █████ 0.07% (99%)
[ 370, 371): ███ 0.05% (99%)
[ 371, 372): ████ 0.07% (99%)
[ 372, 373): █████ 0.07% (99%)
[ 373, 374): █████ 0.08% (99%)
[ 374, 375): █████ 0.07% (99%)
[ 375, 376): ███ 0.04% (99%)
[ 376, 377): ███ 0.05% (99%)
[ 377, 378): ███ 0.04% (99%)
[ 378, 379): ███ 0.05% (100%)
[ 379, 380): ███ 0.04% (100%)
[ 380, 381): ██ 0.03% (100%)
[ 381, 382): ██ 0.03% (100%)
[ 382, 383): ██ 0.04% (100%)
[ 383, 384): ██ 0.03% (100%)
[ 384, 385): ██ 0.03% (100%)
[ 385, 386): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 386, 387): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 387, 388): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 388, 389): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 389, 390): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 390, 391): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 391, 392): █ 0.01% (100%)
[ 392, 393): 0.01% (100%)
[ 393, 394): 0.01% (100%)
[ 394, 395): 0.01% (100%)
[ 395, 396): 0.01% (100%)
[ 396, 397): 0.01% (100%)
[ 397, 398): 0.01% (100%)
[ 398, 399): 0.01% (100%)
[ 399, 400): 0.01% (100%)
% republicans: 0.496280