NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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add more poll math

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NunoSempere 2024-04-14 11:35:24 -04:00
parent 0b6b80accb
commit f115fd2039
1 changed files with 14 additions and 5 deletions
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19
main.go
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@ -294,17 +294,26 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
std_poll := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size) std_poll := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_poll) p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_biden_trump_poll) fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_biden_trump_poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tChance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes) fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
// Update general tally // Update general tally
num_biden_votes += poll_biden_votes num_biden_votes += poll_biden_votes
num_trump_votes += poll_trump_votes num_trump_votes += poll_trump_votes
} }
// total_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes total_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
if total_sample_size != 0.0 {
aggregate_trump_share := num_trump_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
aggregate_biden_share := num_biden_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
fmt.Println("") std_all_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / total_sample_size)
p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_all_polls)
fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
}
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate: %f", p_republican)
if r.Float64() < p_republican { if r.Float64() < p_republican {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes} return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
} else { } else {
@ -322,7 +331,7 @@ func simulateElection(states []State) int {
republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
} }
fmt.Printf(" (%d) ", republican_seats) fmt.Printf("\n\n\n (%d) ", republican_seats)
if republican_seats >= 270 { if republican_seats >= 270 {
return 1 return 1
} else { } else {