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tweak degree of injected uncertainty: reduce it overall & in battleground states

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NunoSempere 2024-04-14 21:27:17 -04:00
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9
README.md
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@ -79,11 +79,11 @@ However, this 95% really doesn't feel right. It is only accounting, and very nai
### The adjusted polls story ### The adjusted polls story
If we look at how [Gallup presidential election polls](https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx) did between 1936 and 2008, we get a sense that polls in mid April just aren't very informative as to the eventual result. Doing the tally, for republicans, polls have a 15% relative standard error: huge when races in battleground states tend to be close to 50/50 (49/51, 48/52, 47/53, etc.) If we look at how [Gallup presidential election polls](https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx) did between 1936 and 2008, we get a sense that polls in mid April just aren't very informative as to the eventual result. Doing the tally, for republicans, polls have a standard error of 4-5 points: huge when races in battleground states tend to be close to 50/50 (49/51, 48/52, 47/53, etc.)
Moreover, these are national polls: state polls will have smaller samples and thus more uncertainty. And current pollsters are nor as good as gallup. And... there might be other sources of uncertainty that I'm missing. Moreover, these are national polls: polls in battleground states will have smaller samples and thus more uncertainty. And current pollsters are nor as good as gallup. And... there might be other sources of uncertainty that I'm missing. On the other hand, we have increased polarization, not all states are battleground states, and this variable seems like it requires a bit of finesse.
But incorporating reasonable estimates of uncertainty, the probability of a republican win the model gives is 51%. This is now in line with [prediction markets](https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html). But incorporating reasonable estimates of uncertainty, the probability of a republican win the model gives is 50-60%. This does depend on how much uncertainty you inject. If you inject a lot of uncertainty, it moves closer to 50%. But on the other hand, one has to take care to not inject *too* much uncertainty, even for sure states, like, say, Alabama. This is now in line with [prediction markets](https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html).
## Notes on other models ## Notes on other models
@ -162,7 +162,7 @@ It's not clear to me what I will do with this. After starting to program this, I
General: General:
- [ ] Share with Samotsvety - [ ] Adjust polls only for states which are legitimately uncertain, not in general
- [ ] Think about whether I want to monetize this - [ ] Think about whether I want to monetize this
- Maybe with Vox? - Maybe with Vox?
- Otherwise: add MIT license & publish - Otherwise: add MIT license & publish
@ -219,6 +219,7 @@ General
- [x] Get clarity on next steps - [x] Get clarity on next steps
- [x] Make polling errors wider? - [x] Make polling errors wider?
- [x] Print more data for polls - [x] Print more data for polls
- [x] Share with Samotsvety
### Discarded ### Discarded

2
data/poll-errors/.~lock.gallup-republicans.ods#
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@ -1 +1 @@
,nuno,calma,14.04.2024 19:03,file:///home/nuno/.config/libreoffice/4; ,nuno,calma,14.04.2024 20:31,file:///home/nuno/.config/libreoffice/4;

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data/poll-errors/gallup-republicans.ods
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84
main.go
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@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size f
return getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, candidate_p, std) return getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, candidate_p, std)
} }
func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool, std_additional_uncertainty float64) float64 { func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 {
biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"] biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"] trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
@ -240,8 +240,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool, std_additional
joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize) joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size) std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
std_error := std_error_poll_mean + std_additional_uncertainty p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error_poll_mean)
p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error)
if pretty_print { if pretty_print {
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_biden_sample_size) fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
@ -253,6 +252,67 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool, std_additional
} }
func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, pretty_print bool) float64 {
// Uncertainty from the state
n_republican_win := 0
for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
if party == "R" {
n_republican_win++
}
}
// Get the uncertainty from the poll
biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
}
biden_share := biden_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
trump_share := trump_percentage / 100.0
normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
/* Inject additional uncertainty */
/*
Possible factors:
- National drift between now and the election (biggest one)
- States more uncertain than the national average
- Idiosyncratic factors
- Polls not being as good as gallup
- Increased polarization
Also note that the polls already have some error already
*/
std_additional_uncertainty := 5.0 / 100.0
if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 {
// if solid states for the last 6 elections
std_additional_uncertainty = std_additional_uncertainty / 3.0
if pretty_print {
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tN republican wins: %d", n_republican_win)
fmt.Printf("\n\t\t=> Reducing additional uncertainty")
}
}
std_error := std_error_poll_mean + std_additional_uncertainty
// std_error := std_error_poll_mean + 0.065
p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error)
if pretty_print {
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tStd with std_additional_uncertainty R: %f", 100*std_error)
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win)
}
return p_republican_win
}
/* Print state by state data */ /* Print state by state data */
func printStates(states []State) { func printStates(states []State) {
for _, state := range states { for _, state := range states {
@ -266,12 +326,13 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
p_baserate_republican_win++ p_baserate_republican_win++
} }
} }
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate of R win: %f", p_baserate_republican_win) fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate of R win: %f", p_baserate_republican_win/float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)))
// Individual poll // Individual poll
for _, poll := range state.Polls { for _, poll := range state.Polls {
fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll) fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll)
_ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll, true, 0.0) _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll, true)
_ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll, state, true)
} }
// Aggregate poll // Aggregate poll
@ -293,7 +354,8 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll) fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll)
_ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, true, 0.0) _ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, true)
_ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, true)
} }
} }
@ -364,12 +426,8 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
national_drift := 0.15 p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
state_more_uncertain_than_national := 0.03 // p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
not_as_good_as_gallup := 0.03
idiosyncratic := 0.03
std_additional_uncertainty := national_drift + state_more_uncertain_than_national + not_as_good_as_gallup + idiosyncratic
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false, std_additional_uncertainty)
// weight_polls := 0.75 // weight_polls := 0.75
// p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win // p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
@ -442,7 +500,7 @@ func main() {
return return
} }
n_sims := 1_000_000 n_sims := 100_000
printStates(states) printStates(states)
fmt.Printf("\n\n") fmt.Printf("\n\n")

915
output Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,915 @@
State: Colorado
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 556.160000
Mean R: 44.318182
Std of mean R: 2.106434
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 556.000000
Mean R: 44.318182
Std of mean R: 2.106737
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001
State: Florida
Votes: 30
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 743.750000
Mean R: 54.117647
Std of mean R: 1.827169
Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788
Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 838.000000
Mean R: 58.711217
Std of mean R: 1.700805
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1581.000000
Mean R: 56.551288
Std of mean R: 1.246648
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858
State: New Hampshire
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
State: Pennsylvania
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 882.960000
Mean R: 51.282051
Std of mean R: 1.682119
Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075
Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 353.420000
Mean R: 48.780488
Std of mean R: 2.658859
Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744
Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 546.000000
Mean R: 51.648352
Std of mean R: 2.138639
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 680.000000
Mean R: 48.235294
Std of mean R: 1.916218
Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302
Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 658.750000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 1.946879
Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3121.000000
Mean R: 50.500940
Std of mean R: 0.894955
Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860
State: Alabama
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: California
Votes: 54
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 921.400000
Mean R: 36.470588
Std of mean R: 1.585750
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 921.000000
Mean R: 36.470588
Std of mean R: 1.586094
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
State: Hawaii
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Indiana
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
State: Iowa
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
State: Massachusetts
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 741.480000
Mean R: 37.837838
Std of mean R: 1.781052
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 741.000000
Mean R: 37.837838
Std of mean R: 1.781628
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
State: Ohio
Votes: 17
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
State: Virginia
Votes: 13
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
State: Wisconsin
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 830.000000
Mean R: 52.289157
Std of mean R: 1.733705
Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055
Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 50.000000
Std of mean R: 2.128141
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1382.000000
Mean R: 51.374819
Std of mean R: 1.344472
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777
State: Idaho
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Kentucky
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Louisiana
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Mississippi
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: New Mexico
Votes: 5
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
State: West Virginia
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Connecticut
Votes: 7
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: New Jersey
Votes: 14
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 768.000000
Mean R: 46.614583
Std of mean R: 1.800079
Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 768.000000
Mean R: 46.614583
Std of mean R: 1.800079
Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
State: North Carolina
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 493.800000
Mean R: 52.612394
Std of mean R: 2.246989
Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756
Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 883.920000
Mean R: 51.724138
Std of mean R: 1.680758
Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826
Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1106.790000
Mean R: 51.898734
Std of mean R: 1.501841
Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868
Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 526.440000
Mean R: 52.439024
Std of mean R: 2.176598
Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018
Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 53.260870
Std of mean R: 2.123611
Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3562.000000
Mean R: 52.245190
Std of mean R: 0.836922
Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753
State: Utah
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Oregon
Votes: 8
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Alaska
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Delaware
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Michigan
Votes: 15
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 852.000000
Mean R: 52.347418
Std of mean R: 1.711083
Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749
Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 558.000000
Mean R: 51.612903
Std of mean R: 2.115567
Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661
Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 811.780000
Mean R: 54.054054
Std of mean R: 1.749116
Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973
Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 492.800000
Mean R: 51.250000
Std of mean R: 2.251640
Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429
Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 587.052000
Mean R: 51.932367
Std of mean R: 2.062088
Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3301.000000
Mean R: 52.405295
Std of mean R: 0.869249
Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028
State: Minnesota
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 522.880000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.186007
Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 522.000000
Mean R: 48.837209
Std of mean R: 2.187849
Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452
State: Missouri
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: New York
Votes: 28
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: North Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Rhode Island
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Washington
Votes: 12
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 510.000000
Mean R: 43.529412
Std of mean R: 2.195419
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 510.000000
Mean R: 43.529412
Std of mean R: 2.195419
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
State: Georgia
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 646.000000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 1.965998
Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994
Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 522.000000
Mean R: 50.574713
Std of mean R: 2.188296
Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1168.000000
Mean R: 51.232877
Std of mean R: 1.462570
Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648
State: Oklahoma
Votes: 7
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: South Carolina
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: South Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Wyoming
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Arizona
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 438.600000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 2.385970
Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419
Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
Sample size: 420.000000
Mean R: 52.857143
Std of mean R: 2.435764
Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601
Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 377.250000
Mean R: 52.000000
Std of mean R: 2.572217
Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158
Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 534.000000
Mean R: 52.808989
Std of mean R: 2.160294
Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1769.000000
Mean R: 52.389186
Std of mean R: 1.187435
Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302
State: Arkansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Kansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Maryland
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Nebraska
Votes: 5
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
State: Nevada
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 52.173913
Std of mean R: 2.126129
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 552.000000
Mean R: 52.173913
Std of mean R: 2.126129
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
State: Tennessee
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 711.020000
Mean R: 65.753425
Std of mean R: 1.779618
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 711.000000
Mean R: 65.753425
Std of mean R: 1.779643
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
State: District of Columbia
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Illinois
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Maine
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Montana
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Texas
Votes: 40
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 938.280000
Mean R: 57.142857
Std of mean R: 1.615572
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230
Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 929.000000
Mean R: 54.574812
Std of mean R: 1.633566
Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1867.000000
Mean R: 55.865216
Std of mean R: 1.149183
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371
State: Vermont
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%)
[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%)
[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%)
[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%)
[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%)
[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%)
[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%)
[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%)
[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%)
[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%)
[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%)
[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%)
[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%)
[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%)
[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%)
[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%)
[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%)
[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%)
[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%)
[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%)
[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%)
[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%)
[ 171, 172): 0.01% (0%)
[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%)
[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%)
[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%)
[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%)
[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%)
[ 177, 178): 0.01% (0%)
[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%)
[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%)
[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%)
[ 181, 182): 0.01% (0%)
[ 182, 183): 0.02% (0%)
[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%)
[ 184, 185): 0.01% (0%)
[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%)
[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%)
[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%)
[ 188, 189): 0.02% (0%)
[ 189, 190): 0.02% (0%)
[ 190, 191): 0.02% (0%)
[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%)
[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%)
[ 193, 194): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 194, 195): 0.01% (0%)
[ 195, 196): 0.02% (0%)
[ 196, 197): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 197, 198): █ 0.04% (0%)
[ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 199, 200): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%)
[ 201, 202): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 202, 203): ██ 0.04% (1%)
[ 203, 204): ███ 0.07% (1%)
[ 204, 205): ██ 0.05% (1%)
[ 205, 206): ██ 0.06% (1%)
[ 206, 207): ███ 0.07% (1%)
[ 207, 208): ███ 0.07% (1%)
[ 208, 209): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 209, 210): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 210, 211): ████ 0.09% (1%)
[ 211, 212): ████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 212, 213): █████ 0.11% (1%)
[ 213, 214): █████ 0.12% (1%)
[ 214, 215): ██████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 215, 216): █████ 0.12% (2%)
[ 216, 217): ██████ 0.14% (2%)
[ 217, 218): ██████ 0.15% (2%)
[ 218, 219): ████████ 0.19% (2%)
[ 219, 220): ████████ 0.18% (2%)
[ 220, 221): █████████ 0.20% (3%)
[ 221, 222): ████████ 0.18% (3%)
[ 222, 223): █████████ 0.21% (3%)
[ 223, 224): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
[ 224, 225): ███████████ 0.26% (3%)
[ 225, 226): ███████████ 0.25% (4%)
[ 226, 227): ███████████ 0.26% (4%)
[ 227, 228): █████████████ 0.30% (4%)
[ 228, 229): ████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
[ 229, 230): ████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
[ 230, 231): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%)
[ 231, 232): ████████████████ 0.36% (6%)
[ 232, 233): █████████████████ 0.39% (6%)
[ 233, 234): ███████████████████ 0.42% (7%)
[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████ 0.49% (7%)
[ 235, 236): █████████████████████ 0.47% (7%)
[ 236, 237): ████████████████████ 0.45% (8%)
[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
[ 238, 239): █████████████████████████ 0.57% (9%)
[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████ 0.60% (10%)
[ 240, 241): █████████████████████████ 0.57% (10%)
[ 241, 242): █████████████████████████ 0.56% (11%)
[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████ 0.58% (11%)
[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (12%)
[ 244, 245): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (13%)
[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (14%)
[ 246, 247): █████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (14%)
[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (15%)
[ 248, 249): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (16%)
[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (17%)
[ 250, 251): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (18%)
[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (19%)
[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (20%)
[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%)
[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (22%)
[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (23%)
[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (24%)
[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (25%)
[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (26%)
[ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (28%)
[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (29%)
[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (30%)
[ 262, 263): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (31%)
[ 263, 264): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (33%)
[ 264, 265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (34%)
[ 265, 266): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (36%)
[ 266, 267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (37%)
[ 267, 268): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (38%)
[ 268, 269): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (40%)
[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (41%)
[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (43%)
[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (44%)
[ 272, 273): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (46%)
[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (47%)
[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (49%)
[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (50%)
[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (52%)
[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (53%)
[ 278, 279): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (55%)
[ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (56%)
[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (58%)
[ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (60%)
[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (61%)
[ 283, 284): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (62%)
[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (64%)
[ 285, 286): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (65%)
[ 286, 287): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (67%)
[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (68%)
[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (70%)
[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (71%)
[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (73%)
[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (74%)
[ 292, 293): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (75%)
[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (76%)
[ 294, 295): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (78%)
[ 295, 296): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (79%)
[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (80%)
[ 297, 298): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (81%)
[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (82%)
[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (83%)
[ 300, 301): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.16% (84%)
[ 301, 302): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (85%)
[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (86%)
[ 303, 304): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (87%)
[ 304, 305): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (88%)
[ 305, 306): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (89%)
[ 306, 307): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (90%)
[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (90%)
[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.66% (91%)
[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (92%)
[ 310, 311): ███████████████████████████████ 0.68% (92%)
[ 311, 312): ███████████████████████████ 0.60% (93%)
[ 312, 313): ████████████████████████ 0.53% (94%)
[ 313, 314): █████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%)
[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████ 0.49% (95%)
[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.42% (95%)
[ 316, 317): █████████████████████ 0.48% (96%)
[ 317, 318): ███████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.35% (96%)
[ 319, 320): ██████████████████ 0.41% (97%)
[ 320, 321): ██████████████ 0.32% (97%)
[ 321, 322): ███████████ 0.25% (97%)
[ 322, 323): ████████████ 0.27% (98%)
[ 323, 324): ████████████ 0.27% (98%)
[ 324, 325): ███████████ 0.25% (98%)
[ 325, 326): ██████████ 0.23% (98%)
[ 326, 327): ████████ 0.19% (99%)
[ 327, 328): ██████ 0.15% (99%)
[ 328, 329): █████ 0.12% (99%)
[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.17% (99%)
[ 330, 331): █████ 0.11% (99%)
[ 331, 332): ███ 0.08% (99%)
[ 332, 333): ███ 0.09% (99%)
[ 333, 334): █████ 0.12% (99%)
[ 334, 335): ████ 0.09% (99%)
[ 335, 336): ████ 0.10% (100%)
[ 336, 337): ███ 0.07% (100%)
[ 337, 338): ██ 0.05% (100%)
[ 338, 339): ██ 0.06% (100%)
[ 339, 340): ██ 0.05% (100%)
[ 340, 341): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 341, 342): 0.02% (100%)
[ 342, 343): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 343, 344): 0.02% (100%)
[ 344, 345): 0.02% (100%)
[ 345, 346): 0.02% (100%)
[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%)
[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
[ 349, 350): 0.02% (100%)
[ 350, 351): 0.01% (100%)
[ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%)
[ 352, 353): 0.01% (100%)
[ 353, 354): 0.01% (100%)
[ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%)
[ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%)
[ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%)
[ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%)
[ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%)
[ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%)
[ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%)
[ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%)
[ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%)
[ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%)
[ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%)
[ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%)
[ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%)
[ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%)
[ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%)
[ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%)
[ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%)
[ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%)
[ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%)
[ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%)
[ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%)
[ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%)
[ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%)
[ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%)
[ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%)
[ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%)
[ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%)
[ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%)
[ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%)
[ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%)
[ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%)
[ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%)
[ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%)
[ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%)
[ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%)
[ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%)
[ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%)
[ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%)
[ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%)
[ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%)
[ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%)
[ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%)
[ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%)
[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
% republicans: 0.589620

1269
output.txt
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