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789 lines
47 KiB
789 lines
47 KiB
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State: Kansas
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Kentucky
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Votes: 8
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Mississippi
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Oregon
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Votes: 8
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Alaska
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: District of Columbia
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Idaho
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Indiana
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Votes: 11
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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State: South Carolina
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Votes: 9
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Utah
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Michigan
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Votes: 15
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 852.000000
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Mean R: 52.347418
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Std of mean R: 1.711083
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
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Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 811.780000
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Mean R: 54.054054
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Std of mean R: 1.749116
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
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Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 587.052000
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Mean R: 51.932367
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Std of mean R: 2.062088
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
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Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 558.000000
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Mean R: 51.612903
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Std of mean R: 2.115567
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
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Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 492.800000
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Mean R: 51.250000
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Std of mean R: 2.251640
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
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Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 539.220000
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Mean R: 51.162791
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Std of mean R: 2.152631
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 3840.000000
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Mean R: 52.230859
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Std of mean R: 0.806068
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176
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State: Nevada
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
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Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 552.000000
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Mean R: 52.173913
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Std of mean R: 2.126129
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 552.000000
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Mean R: 52.173913
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Std of mean R: 2.126129
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
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State: Pennsylvania
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Votes: 19
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 353.420000
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Mean R: 48.780488
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Std of mean R: 2.658859
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
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Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 546.000000
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Mean R: 51.648352
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Std of mean R: 2.138639
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
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Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 882.960000
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Mean R: 51.282051
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Std of mean R: 1.682119
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
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Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 680.000000
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Mean R: 48.235294
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Std of mean R: 1.916218
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
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Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 658.750000
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Mean R: 51.764706
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Std of mean R: 1.946879
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 3121.000000
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Mean R: 50.500940
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Std of mean R: 0.894955
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
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State: Arkansas
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: California
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Votes: 54
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 921.400000
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Mean R: 36.470588
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Std of mean R: 1.585750
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 921.000000
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Mean R: 36.470588
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Std of mean R: 1.586094
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
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State: Iowa
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
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State: Louisiana
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Votes: 8
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Arizona
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Votes: 11
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 377.250000
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Mean R: 52.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.572217
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
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Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
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Sample size: 420.000000
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Mean R: 52.857143
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Std of mean R: 2.435764
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
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Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 438.600000
|
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Mean R: 51.764706
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Std of mean R: 2.385970
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
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Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 534.000000
|
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Mean R: 52.808989
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Std of mean R: 2.160294
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.61081447580304 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1769.000000
|
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Mean R: 52.389186
|
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Std of mean R: 1.187435
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
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State: North Dakota
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Virginia
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Votes: 13
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
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State: Washington
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Votes: 12
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
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Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
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Sample size: 510.000000
|
|
Mean R: 43.529412
|
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Std of mean R: 2.195419
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 510.000000
|
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Mean R: 43.529412
|
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Std of mean R: 2.195419
|
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
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State: Wyoming
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Delaware
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Illinois
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Votes: 19
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Maryland
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Minnesota
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 522.880000
|
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Mean R: 48.837209
|
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Std of mean R: 2.186007
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 522.000000
|
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Mean R: 48.837209
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Std of mean R: 2.187849
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
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State: West Virginia
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: New Jersey
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Votes: 14
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 768.000000
|
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Mean R: 46.614583
|
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Std of mean R: 1.800079
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 768.000000
|
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Mean R: 46.614583
|
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Std of mean R: 1.800079
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
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State: Rhode Island
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Tennessee
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Votes: 11
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 711.020000
|
|
Mean R: 65.753425
|
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Std of mean R: 1.779618
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Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 711.000000
|
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Mean R: 65.753425
|
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Std of mean R: 1.779643
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Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
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State: Texas
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Votes: 40
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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|
Sample size: 929.000000
|
|
Mean R: 54.574812
|
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Std of mean R: 1.633566
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 938.280000
|
|
Mean R: 57.142857
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.615572
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 1867.000000
|
|
Mean R: 55.865216
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.149183
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
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State: Montana
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Votes: 4
|
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: New Mexico
|
|
Votes: 5
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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|
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State: New York
|
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Votes: 28
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Vermont
|
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Votes: 3
|
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Colorado
|
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Votes: 10
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 556.160000
|
|
Mean R: 44.318182
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.106434
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
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Sample size: 556.000000
|
|
Mean R: 44.318182
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.106737
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
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|
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State: Hawaii
|
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Votes: 4
|
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
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State: Maine
|
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Votes: 4
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
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|
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State: Massachusetts
|
|
Votes: 11
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 741.480000
|
|
Mean R: 37.837838
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.781052
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
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Sample size: 741.000000
|
|
Mean R: 37.837838
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.781628
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
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|
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State: Wisconsin
|
|
Votes: 10
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 552.000000
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.128141
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 830.000000
|
|
Mean R: 52.289157
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.733705
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 1382.000000
|
|
Mean R: 51.374819
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.344472
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
|
|
|
|
State: North Carolina
|
|
Votes: 16
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 883.920000
|
|
Mean R: 51.724138
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.680758
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 1106.790000
|
|
Mean R: 51.898734
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.501841
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 552.000000
|
|
Mean R: 53.260870
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.123611
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 526.440000
|
|
Mean R: 52.439024
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.176598
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 493.800000
|
|
Mean R: 52.612394
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.246989
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 3562.000000
|
|
Mean R: 52.245190
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.836922
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
|
|
|
|
State: Ohio
|
|
Votes: 17
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
|
|
|
State: Connecticut
|
|
Votes: 7
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
|
|
|
State: Florida
|
|
Votes: 30
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 838.000000
|
|
Mean R: 58.711217
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.700805
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 743.750000
|
|
Mean R: 54.117647
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.827169
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 1581.000000
|
|
Mean R: 56.551288
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.246648
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
State: Nebraska
|
|
Votes: 5
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
|
|
|
State: New Hampshire
|
|
Votes: 4
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
|
|
|
State: South Dakota
|
|
Votes: 3
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
State: Alabama
|
|
Votes: 9
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
State: Georgia
|
|
Votes: 16
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 522.000000
|
|
Mean R: 50.574713
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.188296
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
|
|
Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 646.000000
|
|
Mean R: 51.764706
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.965998
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
|
Sample size: 1168.000000
|
|
Mean R: 51.232877
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.462570
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
|
|
|
|
State: Missouri
|
|
Votes: 10
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
State: Oklahoma
|
|
Votes: 7
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
|
|
|
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 144, 145): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
|
|
[ 150, 151): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 151, 152): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 152, 153): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 153, 154): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 154, 155): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 155, 156): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 156, 157): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 157, 158): 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 158, 159): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
|
[ 159, 160): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
|
[ 160, 161): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
|
[ 161, 162): █ 0.01% (0%)
|
|
[ 162, 163): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
|
[ 163, 164): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
|
[ 164, 165): █ 0.02% (0%)
|
|
[ 165, 166): ██ 0.03% (0%)
|
|
[ 166, 167): ██ 0.03% (0%)
|
|
[ 167, 168): ██ 0.03% (0%)
|
|
[ 168, 169): ███ 0.04% (0%)
|
|
[ 169, 170): ██ 0.04% (0%)
|
|
[ 170, 171): ███ 0.04% (0%)
|
|
[ 171, 172): ██ 0.04% (1%)
|
|
[ 172, 173): ███ 0.05% (1%)
|
|
[ 173, 174): ███ 0.04% (1%)
|
|
[ 174, 175): ████ 0.06% (1%)
|
|
[ 175, 176): ████ 0.06% (1%)
|
|
[ 176, 177): ████ 0.06% (1%)
|
|
[ 177, 178): █████ 0.08% (1%)
|
|
[ 178, 179): █████ 0.08% (1%)
|
|
[ 179, 180): ██████ 0.09% (1%)
|
|
[ 180, 181): ████ 0.06% (1%)
|
|
[ 181, 182): █████ 0.08% (1%)
|
|
[ 182, 183): ███████ 0.10% (1%)
|
|
[ 183, 184): ███████ 0.10% (1%)
|
|
[ 184, 185): ██████ 0.08% (1%)
|
|
[ 185, 186): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
|
|
[ 186, 187): █████████ 0.13% (2%)
|
|
[ 187, 188): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
|
|
[ 188, 189): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
|
|
[ 189, 190): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
|
|
[ 190, 191): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
|
|
[ 191, 192): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
|
|
[ 192, 193): ███████████ 0.16% (3%)
|
|
[ 193, 194): ██████████████ 0.20% (3%)
|
|
[ 194, 195): ████████████ 0.18% (3%)
|
|
[ 195, 196): ████████████ 0.17% (3%)
|
|
[ 196, 197): ████████████ 0.17% (3%)
|
|
[ 197, 198): █████████████ 0.18% (3%)
|
|
[ 198, 199): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%)
|
|
[ 199, 200): ████████████████ 0.22% (4%)
|
|
[ 200, 201): ████████████████ 0.23% (4%)
|
|
[ 201, 202): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%)
|
|
[ 202, 203): ███████████████ 0.21% (5%)
|
|
[ 203, 204): ████████████████████ 0.28% (5%)
|
|
[ 204, 205): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%)
|
|
[ 205, 206): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%)
|
|
[ 206, 207): ███████████████████ 0.27% (6%)
|
|
[ 207, 208): █████████████████████ 0.29% (6%)
|
|
[ 208, 209): █████████████████████ 0.30% (6%)
|
|
[ 209, 210): ███████████████████████ 0.33% (7%)
|
|
[ 210, 211): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (7%)
|
|
[ 211, 212): █████████████████████████ 0.35% (7%)
|
|
[ 212, 213): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (8%)
|
|
[ 213, 214): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (8%)
|
|
[ 214, 215): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (8%)
|
|
[ 215, 216): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%)
|
|
[ 216, 217): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%)
|
|
[ 217, 218): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%)
|
|
[ 218, 219): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%)
|
|
[ 219, 220): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (11%)
|
|
[ 220, 221): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.52% (11%)
|
|
[ 221, 222): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (12%)
|
|
[ 222, 223): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (12%)
|
|
[ 223, 224): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%)
|
|
[ 224, 225): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%)
|
|
[ 225, 226): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (14%)
|
|
[ 226, 227): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (14%)
|
|
[ 227, 228): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.55% (15%)
|
|
[ 228, 229): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (16%)
|
|
[ 229, 230): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (16%)
|
|
[ 230, 231): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%)
|
|
[ 231, 232): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%)
|
|
[ 232, 233): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (18%)
|
|
[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (19%)
|
|
[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (19%)
|
|
[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (20%)
|
|
[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (21%)
|
|
[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (22%)
|
|
[ 238, 239): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (22%)
|
|
[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (23%)
|
|
[ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (24%)
|
|
[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (25%)
|
|
[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (25%)
|
|
[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (26%)
|
|
[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (27%)
|
|
[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (28%)
|
|
[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (29%)
|
|
[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (30%)
|
|
[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (30%)
|
|
[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (31%)
|
|
[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (32%)
|
|
[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (33%)
|
|
[ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (34%)
|
|
[ 253, 254): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (35%)
|
|
[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (36%)
|
|
[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (37%)
|
|
[ 256, 257): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (38%)
|
|
[ 257, 258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (39%)
|
|
[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (40%)
|
|
[ 259, 260): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (41%)
|
|
[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (42%)
|
|
[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (42%)
|
|
[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (43%)
|
|
[ 263, 264): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (44%)
|
|
[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (45%)
|
|
[ 265, 266): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (46%)
|
|
[ 266, 267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (47%)
|
|
[ 267, 268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (48%)
|
|
[ 268, 269): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (49%)
|
|
[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (50%)
|
|
[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (51%)
|
|
[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (52%)
|
|
[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (53%)
|
|
[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (54%)
|
|
[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (55%)
|
|
[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (56%)
|
|
[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (57%)
|
|
[ 277, 278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (58%)
|
|
[ 278, 279): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (59%)
|
|
[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (60%)
|
|
[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (61%)
|
|
[ 281, 282): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (62%)
|
|
[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (63%)
|
|
[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (63%)
|
|
[ 284, 285): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (64%)
|
|
[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (65%)
|
|
[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (66%)
|
|
[ 287, 288): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (67%)
|
|
[ 288, 289): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (68%)
|
|
[ 289, 290): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (69%)
|
|
[ 290, 291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (70%)
|
|
[ 291, 292): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (70%)
|
|
[ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (71%)
|
|
[ 293, 294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (72%)
|
|
[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (73%)
|
|
[ 295, 296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (74%)
|
|
[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (74%)
|
|
[ 297, 298): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (75%)
|
|
[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (76%)
|
|
[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (77%)
|
|
[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (77%)
|
|
[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (78%)
|
|
[ 302, 303): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (79%)
|
|
[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (79%)
|
|
[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (80%)
|
|
[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (81%)
|
|
[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (81%)
|
|
[ 307, 308): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (82%)
|
|
[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (83%)
|
|
[ 309, 310): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (83%)
|
|
[ 310, 311): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (84%)
|
|
[ 311, 312): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (84%)
|
|
[ 312, 313): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (85%)
|
|
[ 313, 314): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (85%)
|
|
[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (86%)
|
|
[ 315, 316): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (86%)
|
|
[ 316, 317): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (87%)
|
|
[ 317, 318): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (87%)
|
|
[ 318, 319): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.47% (88%)
|
|
[ 319, 320): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (88%)
|
|
[ 320, 321): ██████████████████████████████ 0.42% (89%)
|
|
[ 321, 322): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (89%)
|
|
[ 322, 323): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (89%)
|
|
[ 323, 324): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%)
|
|
[ 324, 325): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (90%)
|
|
[ 325, 326): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (90%)
|
|
[ 326, 327): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (91%)
|
|
[ 327, 328): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (91%)
|
|
[ 328, 329): █████████████████████ 0.30% (91%)
|
|
[ 329, 330): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (92%)
|
|
[ 330, 331): ████████████████████████ 0.33% (92%)
|
|
[ 331, 332): ███████████████████████ 0.32% (92%)
|
|
[ 332, 333): ███████████████████████ 0.32% (93%)
|
|
[ 333, 334): █████████████████████ 0.29% (93%)
|
|
[ 334, 335): ███████████████████ 0.26% (93%)
|
|
[ 335, 336): █████████████████ 0.24% (94%)
|
|
[ 336, 337): ███████████████████ 0.27% (94%)
|
|
[ 337, 338): ███████████████████ 0.27% (94%)
|
|
[ 338, 339): ██████████████████ 0.26% (94%)
|
|
[ 339, 340): █████████████████ 0.24% (95%)
|
|
[ 340, 341): ███████████████ 0.21% (95%)
|
|
[ 341, 342): ████████████████ 0.23% (95%)
|
|
[ 342, 343): ███████████████ 0.22% (95%)
|
|
[ 343, 344): ████████████████ 0.22% (96%)
|
|
[ 344, 345): ███████████████ 0.21% (96%)
|
|
[ 345, 346): ██████████████ 0.19% (96%)
|
|
[ 346, 347): █████████████ 0.19% (96%)
|
|
[ 347, 348): ███████████████ 0.21% (96%)
|
|
[ 348, 349): █████████████ 0.18% (97%)
|
|
[ 349, 350): ████████████ 0.17% (97%)
|
|
[ 350, 351): ███████████ 0.16% (97%)
|
|
[ 351, 352): ██████████ 0.14% (97%)
|
|
[ 352, 353): ████████████ 0.18% (97%)
|
|
[ 353, 354): ██████████ 0.14% (97%)
|
|
[ 354, 355): ██████████ 0.15% (97%)
|
|
[ 355, 356): ██████████ 0.14% (98%)
|
|
[ 356, 357): █████████ 0.13% (98%)
|
|
[ 357, 358): █████████ 0.13% (98%)
|
|
[ 358, 359): ████████ 0.12% (98%)
|
|
[ 359, 360): ███████ 0.11% (98%)
|
|
[ 360, 361): ████████ 0.12% (98%)
|
|
[ 361, 362): ███████ 0.11% (98%)
|
|
[ 362, 363): ███████ 0.10% (98%)
|
|
[ 363, 364): ██████ 0.09% (99%)
|
|
[ 364, 365): ██████ 0.09% (99%)
|
|
[ 365, 366): ███████ 0.10% (99%)
|
|
[ 366, 367): █████ 0.07% (99%)
|
|
[ 367, 368): ██████ 0.08% (99%)
|
|
[ 368, 369): █████ 0.07% (99%)
|
|
[ 369, 370): █████ 0.07% (99%)
|
|
[ 370, 371): ███ 0.05% (99%)
|
|
[ 371, 372): ████ 0.07% (99%)
|
|
[ 372, 373): █████ 0.07% (99%)
|
|
[ 373, 374): █████ 0.08% (99%)
|
|
[ 374, 375): █████ 0.07% (99%)
|
|
[ 375, 376): ███ 0.04% (99%)
|
|
[ 376, 377): ███ 0.05% (99%)
|
|
[ 377, 378): ███ 0.04% (99%)
|
|
[ 378, 379): ███ 0.05% (100%)
|
|
[ 379, 380): ███ 0.04% (100%)
|
|
[ 380, 381): ██ 0.03% (100%)
|
|
[ 381, 382): ██ 0.03% (100%)
|
|
[ 382, 383): ██ 0.04% (100%)
|
|
[ 383, 384): ██ 0.03% (100%)
|
|
[ 384, 385): ██ 0.03% (100%)
|
|
[ 385, 386): █ 0.02% (100%)
|
|
[ 386, 387): █ 0.02% (100%)
|
|
[ 387, 388): █ 0.02% (100%)
|
|
[ 388, 389): █ 0.03% (100%)
|
|
[ 389, 390): █ 0.02% (100%)
|
|
[ 390, 391): █ 0.02% (100%)
|
|
[ 391, 392): █ 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 392, 393): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 393, 394): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 394, 395): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 395, 396): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 396, 397): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 397, 398): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 398, 399): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
[ 399, 400): 0.01% (100%)
|
|
|
|
% republicans: 0.496280
|