NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
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filter recent polls

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NunoSempere 2024-04-14 10:09:46 -04:00
parent ca7401a6ed
commit 6dddb42899
1 changed files with 30 additions and 23 deletions
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53
main.go
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@ -187,15 +187,21 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
} }
func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty { func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
switch state.Name { switch state.Name {
case "Nebraska": case "Nebraska":
// 2000: R /*
// 2004: R 2000: R
// 2008: Split, 1 D, 4 R 2004: R
// 2012: R 2008: Split, 1 D, 4 R
// 2016: R 2012: R
// 2020: Split, 1 D, 4 R 2016: R
2020: Split, 1 D, 4 R
*/
p_split := 2.0 / 6.0 p_split := 2.0 / 6.0
if r.Float64() < p_split { if r.Float64() < p_split {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 4} return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 4}
@ -203,12 +209,14 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: 5} return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: 5}
} }
case "Maine": case "Maine":
// 2000: D /*
// 2004: D 2000: D
// 2008: D 2004: D
// 2012: D 2008: D
// 2016: Split: 3 D, 1 R 2012: D
// 2020: Split, 3 D, 1 R 2016: Split: 3 D, 1 R
2020: Split, 3 D, 1 R
*/
p_split := 2.0 / 6.0 p_split := 2.0 / 6.0
if r.Float64() < p_split { if r.Float64() < p_split {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 3, Republicans: 1} return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 3, Republicans: 1}
@ -217,6 +225,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
} }
default: default:
{ {
/* Just considering the base rate for the state */
p_republican := 0.0 p_republican := 0.0
for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory { for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
if party == "R" { if party == "R" {
@ -229,6 +238,15 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
} else { } else {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0} return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0}
} }
/* Considering polls */
var recent_polls []Poll
for _, poll := range state.Polls {
if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
}
}
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 1}
} }
} }
} }
@ -237,21 +255,10 @@ func simulateElection(states []State) int {
republican_seats := 0 republican_seats := 0
for _, state := range states { for _, state := range states {
fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s\n\tVotes: %d\n\tHistory: %s\n\tPolls: %s", state.Name, state.Votes, state.PresidentialElectoralHistory, state.Polls)
election_sample := sampleFromState(state) election_sample := sampleFromState(state)
republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
/*
fmt.Printf("%s: Votes: %d,\n\tWinners: ", state.Name, state.Votes)
for year, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
fmt.Printf("[%s: %s] ", year, party)
}
fmt.Printf("\n\tSample: Democrat seats: %d, Republican seats: %d", election_sample.Democrats, election_sample.Republicans)
fmt.Println()
*/
} }
// fmt.Printf("\nDemocrat seats: %d\n", republican_seats)
fmt.Printf(" (%d) ", republican_seats) fmt.Printf(" (%d) ", republican_seats)
if republican_seats >= 270 { if republican_seats >= 270 {
return 1 return 1