Nuño's deads imple election simulator

First round: just consider the base rates.

• Get past electoral college results since 2000
• Get number of electors for each state with the new census
• Combine the two to get an initial base rates analysis

This initial approach gives a 25% to republicans winning in the 2024 election. Why is this? Well, consider the number of electoral college votes:

Year	Republican electoral college votes
2000	271
2004	286
2008	173
2012	206
2016	304
2020	232

Year	Democrat electoral college votes
2000	266
2004	251
2008	365
2012	332
2016	227
2020	232

When Democrats won with Obama, they won by a lot, whereas when Republicans won with Bush and Trump, they won by a smaller amount. Or, in other words, this initial approach doesn't take into account that states are correlated.

Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions using Laplace's law?

Second round: just consider polls

• Download and format
• Read
• Add date of poll
• Consider what the standards error should be
• Aggregate polls?
• Exclude polls older than one month?
• ...

Third