switch to Kamala model
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parent
060b9725ee
commit
6805144e99
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@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
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package core
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const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 //
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const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
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const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.8 // 0.75
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const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 // 30
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const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.03 / 100.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
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const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.75 // 0.75
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Load Diff
80
main.go
80
main.go
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@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ type Poll struct {
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/* Globals */
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var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(100), uint64(2224)))
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var dem_nominee_name = "Biden"
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var dem_nominee_name = "Harris"
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var rep_nominee_name = "Trump"
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/* Sampling helper functions */
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@ -54,24 +54,24 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size f
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}
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func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 {
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biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
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if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
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if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Harris/Trump doesn't have Harris/Trump")
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}
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biden_share := biden_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
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harris_share := harris_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
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trump_share := trump_percentage / 100.0
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normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
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normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
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normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
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normalized_harris_share := harris_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
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joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
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joint_trump_harris_sample_size := (harris_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_harris_share) / joint_trump_harris_sample_size)
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p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error_poll_mean)
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if pretty_print {
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fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
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fmt.Printf("\n\t\tSample size: %f", joint_trump_harris_sample_size)
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fmt.Printf("\n\t\tMean R: %f", 100.0*normalized_trump_share)
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fmt.Printf("\n\t\tStd of mean R: %f", 100*std_error_poll_mean)
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fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win)
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@ -89,19 +89,19 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
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}
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// Get the uncertainty from the poll
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biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
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if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
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if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Harris/Trump doesn't have Harris/Trump")
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}
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biden_share := biden_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
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harris_share := harris_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
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trump_share := trump_percentage / 100.0
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normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
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normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
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normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
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normalized_harris_share := harris_share / (trump_share + harris_share)
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joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
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joint_trump_harris_sample_size := (harris_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_harris_share) / joint_trump_harris_sample_size)
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/* Inject additional uncertainty */
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/*
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@ -160,21 +160,21 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
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}
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// Aggregate poll
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num_biden_votes := 0.0
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num_harris_votes := 0.0
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num_trump_votes := 0.0
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for _, poll := range state.Polls {
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biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
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if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
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if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have harris/Trump doesn't have harris/Trump")
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}
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num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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num_harris_votes += (harris_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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}
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aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
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aggregate_sample_size := num_harris_votes + num_trump_votes
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if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
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var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
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aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
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aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_harris_votes / aggregate_sample_size
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aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
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fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll)
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@ -230,22 +230,22 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
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p_republican_win := p_baserate_republican_win // if no polls
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/* Consider polls */
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num_biden_votes := 0.0
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num_harris_votes := 0.0
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num_trump_votes := 0.0
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for _, poll := range state.Polls {
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biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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harris_percentage, harris_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
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trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
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if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
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if !harris_exists || !trump_exists {
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panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have harris/Trump doesn't have harris/Trump")
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}
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num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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num_harris_votes += (harris_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
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}
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aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
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aggregate_sample_size := num_harris_votes + num_trump_votes
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if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
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var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
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aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
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aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_harris_votes / aggregate_sample_size
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aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
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p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
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@ -400,7 +400,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
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state_name := record[12]
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end_date := record[14]
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partisan := record[32]
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candidate_name := record[44]
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candidate_name := record[44] // cat president_polls_state.csv | cut -d, -f 45
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date_layout := "1/2/06"
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parsed_date, err := time.Parse(date_layout, end_date)
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@ -440,31 +440,31 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
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// Add the aggregated poll data to the respective states
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for state_name, polls := range state_polls_map {
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// Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump
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// Filter polls by recency and by having both harris and Trump
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var recent_polls []Poll
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for _, poll := range polls {
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if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -core.Include_polls_within_n_days)) {
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recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
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}
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}
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var recent_biden_trump_polls []Poll
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var recent_harris_trump_polls []Poll
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for _, recent_poll := range recent_polls {
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has_biden := false
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has_harris := false
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has_trump := false
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for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
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if candidate_name == dem_nominee_name {
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has_biden = true
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has_harris = true
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} else if candidate_name == rep_nominee_name {
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has_trump = true
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}
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}
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if has_biden && has_trump {
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recent_biden_trump_polls = append(recent_biden_trump_polls, recent_poll)
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if has_harris && has_trump {
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recent_harris_trump_polls = append(recent_harris_trump_polls, recent_poll)
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}
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}
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if state, exists := states[state_name]; exists {
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state.Polls = recent_biden_trump_polls
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state.Polls = recent_harris_trump_polls
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states[state_name] = state // Not redundant
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} else {
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// fmt.Printf("Encountered new state: %s\n", state_name)
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1179
out/output-2024-08-01.txt
Normal file
1179
out/output-2024-08-01.txt
Normal file
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