extract key judgmental variables into core/main.go
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5
core/core.go
Normal file
5
core/core.go
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@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
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package core
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const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 //
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const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
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const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.8 // 0.75
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7
main.go
7
main.go
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@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package main
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import (
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"encoding/csv"
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"fmt"
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"git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/US-2024/core"
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"math"
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rand "math/rand/v2"
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"os"
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@ -112,7 +113,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
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- Increased polarization
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Also note that the polls already have some error already
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*/
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std_additional_uncertainty := 4.0 / 100.0
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std_additional_uncertainty := core.Std_additional_uncertainty
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if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 {
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// if solid states for the last 6 elections
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@ -250,7 +251,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
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p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
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// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
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weight_polls := 0.75
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weight_polls := core.Weight_polls_vs_baserate // 0.75
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p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
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// p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
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}
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@ -442,7 +443,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
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// Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump
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var recent_polls []Poll
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for _, poll := range polls {
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if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
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if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -core.Include_polls_within_n_days)) {
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recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
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}
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}
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