diff --git a/core/core.go b/core/core.go new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9177112 --- /dev/null +++ b/core/core.go @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +package core + +const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 // +const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.0 // 4.0 / 100.0 +const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.8 // 0.75 diff --git a/main.go b/main.go index 760862b..9f2db76 100644 --- a/main.go +++ b/main.go @@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package main import ( "encoding/csv" "fmt" + "git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/US-2024/core" "math" rand "math/rand/v2" "os" @@ -112,7 +113,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett - Increased polarization Also note that the polls already have some error already */ - std_additional_uncertainty := 4.0 / 100.0 + std_additional_uncertainty := core.Std_additional_uncertainty if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 { // if solid states for the last 6 elections @@ -250,7 +251,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty { p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false) // p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false) - weight_polls := 0.75 + weight_polls := core.Weight_polls_vs_baserate // 0.75 p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win // p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls } @@ -442,7 +443,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) { // Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump var recent_polls []Poll for _, poll := range polls { - if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) { + if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -core.Include_polls_within_n_days)) { recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll) } }