701 lines
28 KiB
Plaintext
701 lines
28 KiB
Plaintext
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State: New Hampshire
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87635 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47.7 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:0.8 Trump:41.4 West:0.3] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 891.000000
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Mean R: 46.464646
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Std of mean R: 1.670871
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:891 PollResults:map[Harris:53.53535353535354 Trump:46.464646464646464] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 891.000000
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Mean R: 46.464646
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Std of mean R: 1.670871
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705
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State: New Mexico
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Votes: 5
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History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87688 SampleSize:493 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:8 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:37] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 399.330000
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Mean R: 45.679012
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Std of mean R: 2.492736
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.041509
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.992736
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074394
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:399 PollResults:map[Harris:54.32098765432099 Trump:45.67901234567901] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 399.000000
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Mean R: 45.679012
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Std of mean R: 2.493766
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.041573
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.993766
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074464
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State: Arkansas
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Colorado
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
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State: Kentucky
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Votes: 8
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Maine
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Votes: 4
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Minnesota
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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Poll: {PollId:87686 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 468.060000
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Mean R: 47.126437
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Std of mean R: 2.307283
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.106487
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.473949
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122713
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Harris:52.87356321839081 Trump:47.12643678160919] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 468.000000
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Mean R: 47.126437
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Std of mean R: 2.307431
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.106501
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N republican wins: 0
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=> Reducing additional uncertainty
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.474097
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122728
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State: Mississippi
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Vermont
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: North Carolina
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Votes: 16
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:87718 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:49] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
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Sample size: 940.000000
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Mean R: 52.127660
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Std of mean R: 1.629343
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.904196
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.129343
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.841153
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Poll: {PollId:87711 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:44.1 Kennedy:3.6 Oliver:0.6 Stein:0.4 Terry:0 Trump:47.2] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 547.800000
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Mean R: 51.697700
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Std of mean R: 2.135052
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.786739
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.635052
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.740302
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Poll: {PollId:87689 SampleSize:714 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 606.900000
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Mean R: 51.764706
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Std of mean R: 2.028340
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.807857
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.528340
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757402
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Poll: {PollId:87625 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:5 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 663.640000
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Mean R: 51.063830
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Std of mean R: 1.940463
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.708235
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.440463
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.668550
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2758 PollResults:map[Harris:48.29353886757978 Trump:51.70646113242023] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 2758.000000
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Mean R: 51.706461
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Std of mean R: 0.951524
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.963545
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.451524
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.880129
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State: North Dakota
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Alabama
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Votes: 9
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Alaska
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Delaware
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Illinois
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Votes: 19
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Indiana
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Votes: 11
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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State: Nevada
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Votes: 6
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
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Poll: {PollId:87717 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:48] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
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Sample size: 930.000000
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Mean R: 51.612903
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Std of mean R: 1.638711
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.837504
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.138711
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.774620
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Poll: {PollId:87624 SampleSize:454 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:7 Oliver:3 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 417.680000
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Mean R: 48.913043
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Std of mean R: 2.445938
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.328379
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.945938
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.356076
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Poll: {PollId:87687 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Harris:40 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 376.000000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.578553
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.078553
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:87646 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 364.000000
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Mean R: 50.549451
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Std of mean R: 2.620554
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.583037
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.120554
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.569882
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2087 PollResults:map[Harris:49.4031652360515 Trump:50.59683476394849] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 2087.000000
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Mean R: 50.596835
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Std of mean R: 1.094404
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.707244
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.594404
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.645921
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State: Oklahoma
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Votes: 7
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: South Dakota
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Votes: 3
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
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Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
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State: Wisconsin
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Votes: 10
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
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Poll: {PollId:87627 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:6 Oliver:3 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 672.000000
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Mean R: 48.958333
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Std of mean R: 1.928373
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.294537
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.428373
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.333977
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Poll: {PollId:87691 SampleSize:597 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 513.420000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.206651
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.706651
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:87714 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:49] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 776.000000
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Mean R: 50.515464
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Std of mean R: 1.794800
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.613020
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.294800
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.588864
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Poll: {PollId:87648 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 376.000000
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Mean R: 48.936170
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Std of mean R: 2.577969
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.339927
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.077969
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.364811
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Poll: {PollId:87702 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 744.000000
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Mean R: 48.387097
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Std of mean R: 1.832135
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.189337
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.332135
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.244594
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Poll: {PollId:87698 SampleSize:877 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:6 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Terry:0 Trump:45 West:0] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 798.070000
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Mean R: 49.450549
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Std of mean R: 1.769796
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.378106
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.269796
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.404363
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Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3879 PollResults:map[Harris:50.60278541767087 Trump:49.39721458232912] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 3879.000000
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Mean R: 49.397215
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Std of mean R: 0.802747
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.226355
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.302747
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.321788
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State: Connecticut
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Votes: 7
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History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
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State: Georgia
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Votes: 16
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History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
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Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
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Poll: {PollId:87684 SampleSize:1128 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 1015.200000
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Mean R: 51.111111
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Std of mean R: 1.568870
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.760597
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.068870
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.704388
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Poll: {PollId:87704 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-07-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
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Sample size: 576.000000
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Mean R: 50.000000
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Std of mean R: 2.083333
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.583333
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Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
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Poll: {PollId:87633 SampleSize:662 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
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Sample size: 628.900000
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Mean R: 49.473684
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Std of mean R: 1.993679
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Poll says chance of R win: 0.395893
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||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.493679
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.416420
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87622 SampleSize:799 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:4 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 751.060000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.824453
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.324453
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2971 PollResults:map[Harris:49.73175460089662 Trump:50.268245399103385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2971.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.268245
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.917302
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.615021
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.417302
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575057
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Missouri
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New Jersey
|
||
|
|
Votes: 14
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: West Virginia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: California
|
||
|
|
Votes: 54
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87620 SampleSize:1904 PollResults:map[De la Cruz:0 Harris:59 Kennedy:5 Stein:2 Trump:35 West:0] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1789.760000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 37.234043
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.142707
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309373
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1789 PollResults:map[Harris:62.765957446808514 Trump:37.23404255319149] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1789.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 37.234043
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.142949
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309616
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: District of Columbia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Louisiana
|
||
|
|
Votes: 8
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Michigan
|
||
|
|
Votes: 15
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87685 SampleSize:771 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 639.930000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.602410
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.976388
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.619742
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.476388
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596099
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87645 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 360.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.635231
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.135231
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87713 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 768.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.958333
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.803828
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.281809
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.303828
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325582
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87623 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 670.700000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 44.210526
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.917674
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001268
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.417674
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.008318
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2438 PollResults:map[Harris:51.76225995743511 Trump:48.23774004256487] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 2438.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.237740
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.012006
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.040811
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.512006
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121906
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Tennessee
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Washington
|
||
|
|
Votes: 12
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Arizona
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87716 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 950.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.526316
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.622124
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.627205
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.122124
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.597938
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87644 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 364.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.747253
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.616753
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.853111
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.116753
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.810962
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87682 SampleSize:567 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 493.290000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 49.425287
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.251076
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.399243
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.751076
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417261
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87706 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:44.4 Trump:41.6] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 430.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.372093
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.409936
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.249680
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.909936
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.287934
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87631 SampleSize:618 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 593.280000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.041667
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.052324
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.694117
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.552324
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.658409
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87621 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 771.840000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.958333
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.799335
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.281322
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.299335
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325264
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3602 PollResults:map[Harris:49.90825586204791 Trump:50.091744137952084] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 3602.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.091744
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.833101
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.543844
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.333101
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.527434
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Oregon
|
||
|
|
Votes: 8
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Pennsylvania
|
||
|
|
Votes: 19
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87668 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Oliver:2 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 480.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 47.916667
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.280195
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.180447
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.780195
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.226824
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87618 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:3 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 540.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 47.777778
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.149531
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.150611
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.649531
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.200812
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87626 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:4 Stein:1 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 771.840000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 52.083333
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.798163
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.876688
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.298163
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.817670
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87632 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 595.650000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.526316
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.048568
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.601379
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.548568
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.581805
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87715 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 900.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.111111
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.666255
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.747560
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.166255
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695996
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87638 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:47.6] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 470.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.638298
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.306140
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.609026
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.806140
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589969
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87690 SampleSize:743 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 668.700000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 51.111111
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.933068
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.717284
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.433068
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676046
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87647 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 372.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 48.387097
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.591030
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.266808
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.091030
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.300904
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87667 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:4 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 540.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.000000
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.151657
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.651657
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:5338 PollResults:map[Harris:49.78185489838315 Trump:50.218145101616834] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 5338.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 50.218145
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 0.684347
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.625047
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.184347
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.573068
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Wyoming
|
||
|
|
Votes: 3
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Idaho
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Maryland
|
||
|
|
Votes: 10
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Massachusetts
|
||
|
|
Votes: 11
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Ohio
|
||
|
|
Votes: 17
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87650 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:9 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:52] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 564.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.319149
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.093432
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:564 PollResults:map[Harris:44.680851063829785 Trump:55.319148936170215] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 564.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 55.319149
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 2.093432
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Texas
|
||
|
|
Votes: 40
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Virginia
|
||
|
|
Votes: 13
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Florida
|
||
|
|
Votes: 30
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87683 SampleSize:976 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 858.880000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.409091
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.702127
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.977403
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.202127
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.939200
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87612 SampleSize:774 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 704.340000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.846154
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.878409
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.979698
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.378409
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.947073
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1563 PollResults:map[Harris:46.39398165325418 Trump:53.60601834674582] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1563.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 53.606018
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.261415
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.997873
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.761415
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979682
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Hawaii
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Kansas
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Nebraska
|
||
|
|
Votes: 5
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: New York
|
||
|
|
Votes: 28
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87678 SampleSize:1199 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:2 Trump:37 West:1] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1031.140000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 43.023256
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.541848
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708515
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1031 PollResults:map[Harris:56.97674418604652 Trump:43.02325581395349] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 1031.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 43.023256
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.541953
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 0
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708620
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Utah
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Iowa
|
||
|
|
Votes: 6
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Montana
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
Poll: {PollId:87700 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:39 Kennedy:4.6 Oliver:0.1 Stein:0.1 Trump:53.5 West:0.1] Date:2024-08-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 925.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 57.837838
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.623666
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.790332
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999994
|
||
|
|
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:925 PollResults:map[Harris:42.16216216216216 Trump:57.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
|
||
|
|
Sample size: 925.000000
|
||
|
|
Mean R: 57.837838
|
||
|
|
Std of mean R: 1.623666
|
||
|
|
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
|
||
|
|
N republican wins: 6
|
||
|
|
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
|
||
|
|
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.790332
|
||
|
|
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999994
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: Rhode Island
|
||
|
|
Votes: 4
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
State: South Carolina
|
||
|
|
Votes: 9
|
||
|
|
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
|
||
|
|
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
|
||
|
|
|