State: New Hampshire
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87635 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47.7 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:0.8 Trump:41.4 West:0.3] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 891.000000
		Mean R: 46.464646
		Std of mean R: 1.670871
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:891 PollResults:map[Harris:53.53535353535354 Trump:46.464646464646464] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 891.000000
		Mean R: 46.464646
		Std of mean R: 1.670871
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.017178
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.170871
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.051705

State: New Mexico
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87688 SampleSize:493 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:8 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:37] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 399.330000
		Mean R: 45.679012
		Std of mean R: 2.492736
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.041509
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.992736
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074394
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:399 PollResults:map[Harris:54.32098765432099 Trump:45.67901234567901] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 399.000000
		Mean R: 45.679012
		Std of mean R: 2.493766
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.041573
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.993766
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074464

State: Arkansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Colorado
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: Kentucky
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Maine
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Minnesota
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87686 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 468.060000
		Mean R: 47.126437
		Std of mean R: 2.307283
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.106487
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.473949
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122713
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Harris:52.87356321839081 Trump:47.12643678160919] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 468.000000
		Mean R: 47.126437
		Std of mean R: 2.307431
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.106501
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.474097
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.122728

State: Mississippi
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Vermont
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: North Carolina
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87718 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:49] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 940.000000
		Mean R: 52.127660
		Std of mean R: 1.629343
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.904196
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.129343
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.841153
	Poll: {PollId:87711 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:44.1 Kennedy:3.6 Oliver:0.6 Stein:0.4 Terry:0 Trump:47.2] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 547.800000
		Mean R: 51.697700
		Std of mean R: 2.135052
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.786739
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.635052
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.740302
	Poll: {PollId:87689 SampleSize:714 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:4 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 606.900000
		Mean R: 51.764706
		Std of mean R: 2.028340
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.807857
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.528340
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757402
	Poll: {PollId:87625 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:5 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 663.640000
		Mean R: 51.063830
		Std of mean R: 1.940463
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.708235
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.440463
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.668550
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2758 PollResults:map[Harris:48.29353886757978 Trump:51.70646113242023] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2758.000000
		Mean R: 51.706461
		Std of mean R: 0.951524
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.963545
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.451524
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.880129

State: North Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Alabama
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Alaska
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Delaware
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Illinois
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Indiana
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333

State: Nevada
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
	Poll: {PollId:87717 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:48] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 930.000000
		Mean R: 51.612903
		Std of mean R: 1.638711
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.837504
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.138711
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.774620
	Poll: {PollId:87624 SampleSize:454 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:7 Oliver:3 Stein:1 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 417.680000
		Mean R: 48.913043
		Std of mean R: 2.445938
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.328379
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.945938
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.356076
	Poll: {PollId:87687 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Harris:40 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 376.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.578553
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.078553
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87646 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 364.000000
		Mean R: 50.549451
		Std of mean R: 2.620554
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.583037
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.120554
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.569882
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2087 PollResults:map[Harris:49.4031652360515 Trump:50.59683476394849] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2087.000000
		Mean R: 50.596835
		Std of mean R: 1.094404
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.707244
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.594404
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.645921

State: Oklahoma
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: South Dakota
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Wisconsin
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87627 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:6 Oliver:3 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 672.000000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.928373
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.294537
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.428373
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.333977
	Poll: {PollId:87691 SampleSize:597 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 513.420000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.206651
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.706651
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87714 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:49] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 776.000000
		Mean R: 50.515464
		Std of mean R: 1.794800
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.613020
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.294800
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.588864
	Poll: {PollId:87648 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 376.000000
		Mean R: 48.936170
		Std of mean R: 2.577969
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.339927
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.077969
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.364811
	Poll: {PollId:87702 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 744.000000
		Mean R: 48.387097
		Std of mean R: 1.832135
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.189337
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.332135
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.244594
	Poll: {PollId:87698 SampleSize:877 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:6 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Terry:0 Trump:45 West:0] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 798.070000
		Mean R: 49.450549
		Std of mean R: 1.769796
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.378106
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.269796
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.404363
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3879 PollResults:map[Harris:50.60278541767087 Trump:49.39721458232912] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3879.000000
		Mean R: 49.397215
		Std of mean R: 0.802747
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.226355
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.302747
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.321788

State: Connecticut
	Votes: 7
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Georgia
	Votes: 16
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87684 SampleSize:1128 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1015.200000
		Mean R: 51.111111
		Std of mean R: 1.568870
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.760597
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.068870
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.704388
	Poll: {PollId:87704 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-07-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 576.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.083333
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.583333
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87633 SampleSize:662 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 628.900000
		Mean R: 49.473684
		Std of mean R: 1.993679
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.395893
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.493679
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.416420
	Poll: {PollId:87622 SampleSize:799 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:4 Oliver:4 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 751.060000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 1.824453
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.324453
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2971 PollResults:map[Harris:49.73175460089662 Trump:50.268245399103385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2971.000000
		Mean R: 50.268245
		Std of mean R: 0.917302
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.615021
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.417302
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575057

State: Missouri
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: New Jersey
	Votes: 14
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: West Virginia
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: California
	Votes: 54
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87620 SampleSize:1904 PollResults:map[De la Cruz:0 Harris:59 Kennedy:5 Stein:2 Trump:35 West:0] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1789.760000
		Mean R: 37.234043
		Std of mean R: 1.142707
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309373
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1789 PollResults:map[Harris:62.765957446808514 Trump:37.23404255319149] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1789.000000
		Mean R: 37.234043
		Std of mean R: 1.142949
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.309616
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000

State: District of Columbia
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Louisiana
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Michigan
	Votes: 15
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87685 SampleSize:771 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 639.930000
		Mean R: 50.602410
		Std of mean R: 1.976388
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.619742
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.476388
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596099
	Poll: {PollId:87645 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 360.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.635231
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.135231
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Poll: {PollId:87713 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 768.000000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.803828
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.281809
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.303828
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325582
	Poll: {PollId:87623 SampleSize:706 PollResults:map[Harris:53 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:1 Trump:42] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 670.700000
		Mean R: 44.210526
		Std of mean R: 1.917674
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001268
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.417674
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.008318
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2438 PollResults:map[Harris:51.76225995743511 Trump:48.23774004256487] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 2438.000000
		Mean R: 48.237740
		Std of mean R: 1.012006
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.040811
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.512006
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121906

State: Tennessee
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Washington
	Votes: 12
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Arizona
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
	Poll: {PollId:87716 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 950.000000
		Mean R: 50.526316
		Std of mean R: 1.622124
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.627205
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.122124
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.597938
	Poll: {PollId:87644 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 364.000000
		Mean R: 52.747253
		Std of mean R: 2.616753
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.853111
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.116753
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.810962
	Poll: {PollId:87682 SampleSize:567 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:4 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 493.290000
		Mean R: 49.425287
		Std of mean R: 2.251076
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.399243
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.751076
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417261
	Poll: {PollId:87706 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:44.4 Trump:41.6] Date:2024-08-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 430.000000
		Mean R: 48.372093
		Std of mean R: 2.409936
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.249680
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.909936
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.287934
	Poll: {PollId:87631 SampleSize:618 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 593.280000
		Mean R: 51.041667
		Std of mean R: 2.052324
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.694117
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.552324
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.658409
	Poll: {PollId:87621 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:5 Oliver:2 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 771.840000
		Mean R: 48.958333
		Std of mean R: 1.799335
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.281322
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.299335
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.325264
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3602 PollResults:map[Harris:49.90825586204791 Trump:50.091744137952084] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 3602.000000
		Mean R: 50.091744
		Std of mean R: 0.833101
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.543844
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.333101
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.527434

State: Oregon
	Votes: 8
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Pennsylvania
	Votes: 19
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
	Poll: {PollId:87668 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:50 Oliver:2 Trump:46] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 480.000000
		Mean R: 47.916667
		Std of mean R: 2.280195
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.180447
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.780195
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.226824
	Poll: {PollId:87618 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Kennedy:3 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 540.000000
		Mean R: 47.777778
		Std of mean R: 2.149531
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.150611
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.649531
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.200812
	Poll: {PollId:87626 SampleSize:804 PollResults:map[Harris:46 Kennedy:3 Oliver:4 Stein:1 Trump:50] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 771.840000
		Mean R: 52.083333
		Std of mean R: 1.798163
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.876688
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.298163
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.817670
	Poll: {PollId:87632 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Harris:47 Trump:48] Date:2024-07-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
		Sample size: 595.650000
		Mean R: 50.526316
		Std of mean R: 2.048568
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.601379
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.548568
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.581805
	Poll: {PollId:87715 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 900.000000
		Mean R: 51.111111
		Std of mean R: 1.666255
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.747560
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.166255
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695996
	Poll: {PollId:87638 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Harris:46.4 Trump:47.6] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 470.000000
		Mean R: 50.638298
		Std of mean R: 2.306140
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.609026
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.806140
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589969
	Poll: {PollId:87690 SampleSize:743 PollResults:map[Harris:44 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 668.700000
		Mean R: 51.111111
		Std of mean R: 1.933068
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.717284
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.433068
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676046
	Poll: {PollId:87647 SampleSize:400 PollResults:map[Harris:48 Trump:45] Date:2024-07-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 372.000000
		Mean R: 48.387097
		Std of mean R: 2.591030
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.266808
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.091030
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.300904
	Poll: {PollId:87667 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:45 Kennedy:4 Trump:45] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
		Sample size: 540.000000
		Mean R: 50.000000
		Std of mean R: 2.151657
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.651657
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:5338 PollResults:map[Harris:49.78185489838315 Trump:50.218145101616834] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 5338.000000
		Mean R: 50.218145
		Std of mean R: 0.684347
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.625047
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.184347
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.573068

State: Wyoming
	Votes: 3
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Idaho
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Maryland
	Votes: 10
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Massachusetts
	Votes: 11
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Ohio
	Votes: 17
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87650 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Kennedy:9 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:52] Date:2024-07-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 564.000000
		Mean R: 55.319149
		Std of mean R: 2.093432
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:564 PollResults:map[Harris:44.680851063829785 Trump:55.319148936170215] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 564.000000
		Mean R: 55.319149
		Std of mean R: 2.093432
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.994471
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.593432
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979867

State: Texas
	Votes: 40
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Virginia
	Votes: 13
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333

State: Florida
	Votes: 30
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
	Poll: {PollId:87683 SampleSize:976 PollResults:map[Harris:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-08-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 858.880000
		Mean R: 53.409091
		Std of mean R: 1.702127
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.977403
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.202127
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.939200
	Poll: {PollId:87612 SampleSize:774 PollResults:map[Harris:42 Trump:49] Date:2024-07-27 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 704.340000
		Mean R: 53.846154
		Std of mean R: 1.878409
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.979698
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.378409
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.947073
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1563 PollResults:map[Harris:46.39398165325418 Trump:53.60601834674582] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1563.000000
		Mean R: 53.606018
		Std of mean R: 1.261415
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997873
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.761415
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.979682

State: Hawaii
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: Kansas
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Nebraska
	Votes: 5
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: New York
	Votes: 28
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87678 SampleSize:1199 PollResults:map[Harris:49 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:2 Trump:37 West:1] Date:2024-08-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1031.140000
		Mean R: 43.023256
		Std of mean R: 1.541848
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708515
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1031 PollResults:map[Harris:56.97674418604652 Trump:43.02325581395349] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 1031.000000
		Mean R: 43.023256
		Std of mean R: 1.541953
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000003
		N republican wins: 0
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.708620
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022

State: Utah
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000

State: Iowa
	Votes: 6
	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000

State: Montana
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
	Poll: {PollId:87700 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Harris:39 Kennedy:4.6 Oliver:0.1 Stein:0.1 Trump:53.5 West:0.1] Date:2024-08-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 925.000000
		Mean R: 57.837838
		Std of mean R: 1.623666
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.790332
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999994
	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:925 PollResults:map[Harris:42.16216216216216 Trump:57.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
		Sample size: 925.000000
		Mean R: 57.837838
		Std of mean R: 1.623666
		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
		N republican wins: 6
		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 1.790332
		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999994

State: Rhode Island
	Votes: 4
	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000

State: South Carolina
	Votes: 9
	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000