19 lines
531 B
Plaintext
19 lines
531 B
Plaintext
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- Uncertainty due to drift between now and the election
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- Uncertainty due to difference between last election poll and final vote share
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- Better prior by incorporating more past elections
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- Think about how to:
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- Inject error
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- Inject correlated error
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---
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Not as good as gallup.
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State uncertainty higher than national.
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Should calculate republican error instead.
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Final error:
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National drift + state more uncertain than national + not as good as gallup error + idosyncratic state error
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later: error correlated across states
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