add some data from gallup, reorg

README.md

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-# Nuño's simple electoral college simulator
+# Simple electoral college simulator
 
 ## About
 
@@ -6,6 +6,8 @@ This is a simple model of the US electoral college. It aims to be conceptually s
 
 Other projects, like [538](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight), [Nate Silver's substack](https://www.natesilver.net/) or [Gelman's model](https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model) are to this project as a sportscar is to a walking stick. They are much more sophisticated, and probably more accurate. However, they are also more difficult to understand and to maintain.
 
+Compare with: [Nuño's simple node version manager](https://github.com/NunoSempere/nsnvm), [squiggle.c](https://git.nunosempere.com/personal/squiggle.c), [Predict, Resolve & Tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally)
+
 ## How to run
 
 ### Prerequisites
@@ -142,7 +144,7 @@ Notes on 2020:
 
 ## Roadmap
 
-It's not clear to me what I will do with this. As a result of writting down the model, I've realized that 80/20-ing a 538 would involve more effort than what I was expecting
+It's not clear to me what I will do with this. As a result of writting down the model, I've realized that 80/20-ing a 538 would involve more effort than what I was expecting. I may just add the national drift + election day error + idiosyncratic error terms and then just call it a day.
 
 ### To do
 

data/poll-errors/.~lock.gallup-republicans.ods#

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+,nuno,calma,14.04.2024 19:03,file:///home/nuno/.config/libreoffice/4;

data/poll-errors/gallup-republicans.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+year,midapril,nov,final
+2008,43,40,47.1
+2004,50,49,51
+2000,41,48,48.4
+1996,35,41,40.7
+1992,44,37,37.5
+1988,45,56,53
+1984,54,59,59
+1980,34,47,51
+1976,49,49,48.0
+1972,,62,62
+1968,43,43,44
+1964,,36,38.5
+1960,44,49,49.55
+1956,61,59,58
+1952,59,51,55
+1948,47,50,45.6
+1944,42,48,45.9
+1940,,48,44.8
+1936,,44,36.5

data/poll-errors/source.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+https://news.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trial-heat-trends.aspx
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election

main.go

@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 	var states map[string]State = make(map[string]State)
 
 	/* Electoral college votes for the 2024 election*/
-	votes_file, err := os.Open("data/electoral-college-votes.csv")
+	votes_file, err := os.Open("data/num-electors/electoral-college-votes.csv")
 	// votes_file, err := os.Open("data/electoral-college-votes-2010-census.csv")
 	if err != nil {
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("error opening the votes file: %v", err)
@@ -70,17 +70,17 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 	/* Election results */
 	var years = []string{"2000", "2004", "2008", "2012", "2016", "2020"}
 	for _, year := range years {
-		results_filename := fmt.Sprintf("data/results/%s.csv", year)
-		results_file, err := os.Open(results_filename)
+		electoral_history_filename := fmt.Sprintf("data/electoral-history/%s.csv", year)
+		electoral_history_file, err := os.Open(electoral_history_filename)
 		if err != nil {
-			return nil, fmt.Errorf("error opening the results file for %s: %v", year, err)
+			return nil, fmt.Errorf("error opening the electoral_history file for %s: %v", year, err)
 		}
-		resultsReader := csv.NewReader(results_file)
-		if _, err := resultsReader.Read(); err != nil { // Skip header
-			return nil, fmt.Errorf("error reading results header for %s: %v", year, err)
+		electoral_history_reader := csv.NewReader(electoral_history_file)
+		if _, err := electoral_history_reader.Read(); err != nil { // Skip header
+			return nil, fmt.Errorf("error reading electoral_history header for %s: %v", year, err)
 		}
 		for {
-			record, err := resultsReader.Read()
+			record, err := electoral_history_reader.Read()
 			if err != nil {
 				break // EOF or an error
 			}
@@ -94,7 +94,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 			states[state] = data
 		}
 
-		results_file.Close()
+		electoral_history_file.Close()
 	}
 
 	/* Read polls */

scratchpad.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+- Uncertainty due to drift between now and the election
+- Uncertainty due to difference between last election poll and final vote share
+- Better prior by incorporating more past elections
+- Think about how to:
+  - Inject error
+  - Inject correlated error
+
+---
+
+Not as good as gallup.
+State uncertainty higher than national.
+Should calculate republican error instead. 
+
+Final error:
+National drift + state more uncertain than national + not as good as gallup error + idosyncratic state error
+
+later: error correlated across states
+