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formatting pass nuclear probabilities

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NunoSempere 2023-07-23 23:54:15 +02:00
parent 8b32d2d9b6
commit b76a630d58
1 changed files with 23 additions and 28 deletions
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51
examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c
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@ -3,37 +3,33 @@
#include <stdio.h> #include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h> #include <stdlib.h>
double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed)
{
double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
double current_year = 2023;
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
// 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively:
// https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere
double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed);
// 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed){ double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953; return probability_of_dying;
double current_year = 2023;
double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year-first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
// 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively:
// https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere
double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed);
// 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year *
london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage *
informed_actor_not_able_to_escape *
proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
return probability_of_dying;
} }
double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed){ double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed)
double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month=sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99,seed); // .0001 to .003 {
double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5 double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month = sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99, seed); // .0001 to .003
double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6 double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5
double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95; double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6
double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95;
double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month*london_hit_conditional*informed_actors_not_able_to_escape*proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month * london_hit_conditional * informed_actors_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
return probability_of_dying; return probability_of_dying;
} }
int main() int main()
@ -42,6 +38,5 @@ int main()
uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t)); uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
*seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0 *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
free(seed);
free(seed);
} }