From b76a630d5893d6d64cc7fb929050c03e6cc20acc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2023 23:54:15 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] formatting pass nuclear probabilities --- examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c | 51 ++++++++++++++----------------- 1 file changed, 23 insertions(+), 28 deletions(-) diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c index 0c31ccf..785a37d 100644 --- a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c +++ b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c @@ -3,37 +3,33 @@ #include #include +double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed) +{ + double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953; + double current_year = 2023; + double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed); + double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed); + // I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/ + // 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively: + // https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere + double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed); + // 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool + double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95% -double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed){ - double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953; - double current_year = 2023; - double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year-first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed); - - double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed); - // I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/ - // 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively: - // https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere - double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed); - // 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool - double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95% - - double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * - london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * - informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * - proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; - return probability_of_dying; + double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; + return probability_of_dying; } -double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed){ - double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month=sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99,seed); // .0001 to .003 - double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5 - double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6 - double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95; +double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed) +{ + double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month = sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99, seed); // .0001 to .003 + double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5 + double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6 + double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95; - double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month*london_hit_conditional*informed_actors_not_able_to_escape*proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; - return probability_of_dying; - + double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month * london_hit_conditional * informed_actors_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london; + return probability_of_dying; } int main() @@ -42,6 +38,5 @@ int main() uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t)); *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0 - - free(seed); + free(seed); }