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N.B.: We are open to media mentions or collaborations, and can be reached at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org). N.B.: We are open to media mentions or collaborations, and can be reached at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org).
[WIRED: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221030121813/https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war)) covers our group at some length throughout the article.
> In October, the Samotsvety group updated their predictions. In a [blog post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) published on October 3, they estimated that the chance of London being hit with a nuclear weapon in the next three months was now around 0.02 percent. Since their previous prediction only covered a single month, it’s hard to directly compare these forecasts in terms of micromorts, but [Sempere estimates](https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground/#code=eNqVU8lu20AM%2FRXCpzaotwIGCiM9dAkKo01SwHZz0WUsURKREanOYsMI8u%2BlFieu06TIRRpuj%2B9xOHcDX8puGavKuP1gHlzEd63rIqMg7uAhpkDGLn9HKgqLy%2BCIi8F8MB7DJaVOKnEB0AeqTEAPOwolTKES1v8Gww6RNZwaawIJgw9Y%2B4QT1vqrmFo0DuKtM8SYsIuezNqj7yM3aGphv%2BB1lwEfYTKaTGYQpDnMOhQJCKE0QT8INTqSDCQHZYRAHizmASL7GlPKCbOT5lefVtcJPzK8jsFThn3Hb7TFQ%2Fcbo7xuMetYTDsS0xmAop0PISdrh8THWCtp0NecCutM1WGsFv9X5VnCAK9h9A9JDTvu7R%2FaXnis2aXeXRDN3lCx%2Fr5efqGwbxFa1ItnWnaC%2B6m%2Ff6L3COtU6sujOING6Kuo9EoXVW3SAMRgxQcoJTpdKrOxuJKmtMbPmIvrmPfEP5zyrg7r6zXtWRHtZbyZwhCewr8F1TC9bCn9dLLRjD0UovunHY318vAwgDISv%2BfUqagUcmUvzoOPaQnGQ4swhIXG0XhdMXGQ4cGonWQxDbRVco1mA6meXq6hhwn9lf3L2Ija0VPB2NL00W0VmYsudyfOZmDygE6twwbtiNXRY4xGo%2BYaWusr%2BdoaRb9rxgTwONP50bmLJXw%2FuP8DtRGUZA%3D%3D) that their projected risk for a Londoner over the next one-to-three months may now be around 40 micromorts
[El País: Is it possible to predict the future of the war in Ukraine? Online forecasting communities think so](Is it possible to predict the future of the war in Ukraine? Online forecasting communities think so) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220401061002/https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2022-03-26/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine-online-forecasting-communities-think-so.html), [es](https://elpais.com/tecnologia/2022-03-24/se-puede-predecir-el-futuro-de-la-guerra-en-ucrania-es-lo-que-intenta-una-comunidad-de-pronosticadores-en-internet.html)):
> What risk is there for an alert citizen in London of dying next month due to a nuclear explosion? Some 24 micro deaths, 24 options in a million, according to the group of renowned forecasters of which Nuño Sempere, from Madrid, is a part.
[Astral Codex Ten: Mantic Monday](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220401013834/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422)):
> Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by [an absolutely obscene margin](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGHtomuh55375u7RT/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021), “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
Fantastic Anachronism, [Forecasting Forecasting](https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221123112102/https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/ Fantastic Anachronism, [Forecasting Forecasting](https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221123112102/https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/
)): )):
@ -11,22 +23,18 @@ Fantastic Anachronism, [Forecasting Forecasting](https://fantasticanachronism.co
> With the right kind of marketing angle I could easily see Samotsvety becoming a kind of 21st century McKinsey for the hip SV crowd that wants to signal that it needs actual advice rather than political cover. > With the right kind of marketing angle I could easily see Samotsvety becoming a kind of 21st century McKinsey for the hip SV crowd that wants to signal that it needs actual advice rather than political cover.
[WIRED: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221030121813/https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war)) covers our group at some length throughout the article. Holden Karnofsky: [Jobs that can help with the most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/jobs-that-can-help-with-the-most-important-century/):
> In October, the Samotsvety group updated their predictions. In a [blog post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) published on October 3, they estimated that the chance of London being hit with a nuclear weapon in the next three months was now around 0.02 percent. Since their previous prediction only covered a single month, it’s hard to directly compare these forecasts in terms of micromorts, but [Sempere estimates](https://www.squiggle-language.com/playground/#code=eNqVU8lu20AM%2FRXCpzaotwIGCiM9dAkKo01SwHZz0WUsURKREanOYsMI8u%2BlFieu06TIRRpuj%2B9xOHcDX8puGavKuP1gHlzEd63rIqMg7uAhpkDGLn9HKgqLy%2BCIi8F8MB7DJaVOKnEB0AeqTEAPOwolTKES1v8Gww6RNZwaawIJgw9Y%2B4QT1vqrmFo0DuKtM8SYsIuezNqj7yM3aGphv%2BB1lwEfYTKaTGYQpDnMOhQJCKE0QT8INTqSDCQHZYRAHizmASL7GlPKCbOT5lefVtcJPzK8jsFThn3Hb7TFQ%2Fcbo7xuMetYTDsS0xmAop0PISdrh8THWCtp0NecCutM1WGsFv9X5VnCAK9h9A9JDTvu7R%2FaXnis2aXeXRDN3lCx%2Fr5efqGwbxFa1ItnWnaC%2B6m%2Ff6L3COtU6sujOING6Kuo9EoXVW3SAMRgxQcoJTpdKrOxuJKmtMbPmIvrmPfEP5zyrg7r6zXtWRHtZbyZwhCewr8F1TC9bCn9dLLRjD0UovunHY318vAwgDISv%2BfUqagUcmUvzoOPaQnGQ4swhIXG0XhdMXGQ4cGonWQxDbRVco1mA6meXq6hhwn9lf3L2Ija0VPB2NL00W0VmYsudyfOZmDygE6twwbtiNXRY4xGo%2BYaWusr%2BdoaRb9rxgTwONP50bmLJXw%2FuP8DtRGUZA%3D%3D) that their projected risk for a Londoner over the next one-to-three months may now be around 40 micromorts > I'm intrigued by organizations like [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?show-welcome=true), [HyperMind](https://www.hypermind.com/), [Good Judgment](https://goodjudgment.com/),[9](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/5fec3148-e34e-4bc2-a28b-8c95926142fa/#fn9) [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/), and [Samotsvety](https://samotsvety.org/) - all trying, in one way or another, to produce **good probabilistic forecasts (using generalizable methods[10](https://www.cold-takes.com/p/5fec3148-e34e-4bc2-a28b-8c95926142fa/#fn10)) about world events.**
Epoch Times: [One in Six Chance of Worldwide Nuclear War: Physicist’s Post Goes Viral](https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/one-in-six-chance-of-worldwide-nuclear-war-physicists-post-goes-viral_4786911.html) (unpaywalled [archive](https://archive.is/VuZaK)):
> In addition to Metaculus’s 7 percent estimate, he cited a 16 percent estimate from researchers Nuño Sempere and Misha Yagudin...
[CNN: How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220628081603/https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html)): [CNN: How to assess the risk of nuclear war without freaking out](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220628081603/https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html)):
> One group of [highly regarded forecasters](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#_blank) put the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon against London before February 2023 at 0.8%[^1] > One group of [highly regarded forecasters](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#_blank) put the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon against London before February 2023 at 0.8%[^1]
[El País: Is it possible to predict the future of the war in Ukraine? Online forecasting communities think so](Is it possible to predict the future of the war in Ukraine? Online forecasting communities think so) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220401061002/https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2022-03-26/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine-online-forecasting-communities-think-so.html), [es](https://elpais.com/tecnologia/2022-03-24/se-puede-predecir-el-futuro-de-la-guerra-en-ucrania-es-lo-que-intenta-una-comunidad-de-pronosticadores-en-internet.html)):
> What risk is there for an alert citizen in London of dying next month due to a nuclear explosion? Some 24 micro deaths, 24 options in a million, according to the group of renowned forecasters of which Nuño Sempere, from Madrid, is a part.
[Astral Codex Ten: Mantic Monday](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220401013834/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422)):
> Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by [an absolutely obscene margin](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EGHtomuh55375u7RT/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021), “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
[INFER: The Making of a Top Forecaster: Techniques to Boost Accuracy](https://www.infer-pub.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220221032529/https://www.infer-pub.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)): [INFER: The Making of a Top Forecaster: Techniques to Boost Accuracy](https://www.infer-pub.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220221032529/https://www.infer-pub.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)):
> The Good Judgment Project’s research also showed the value of working in teams. Teams who debated their forecasts (usually virtually) performed better than individuals working alone. Perhaps that’s yet another technique benefitting top forecaster Sempere (@Loki), who meets regularly with his two teammates, @yagudin (also in the top 1%) and @elifland, to discuss and evaluate questions from different angles. > The Good Judgment Project’s research also showed the value of working in teams. Teams who debated their forecasts (usually virtually) performed better than individuals working alone. Perhaps that’s yet another technique benefitting top forecaster Sempere (@Loki), who meets regularly with his two teammates, @yagudin (also in the top 1%) and @elifland, to discuss and evaluate questions from different angles.