diff --git a/.resources/samotsvety-original-band.jpg b/.resources/samotsvety-original-band.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a46b185 --- /dev/null +++ b/.resources/samotsvety-original-band.jpg @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + Discord + + + + +
+ diff --git a/.resources/samotsvety-original-cset-team.jpg b/.resources/samotsvety-original-cset-team.jpg new file mode 100644 index 0000000..12db4a3 Binary files /dev/null and b/.resources/samotsvety-original-cset-team.jpg differ diff --git a/index.md b/index.md index f5dd255..e8b0e0d 100644 --- a/index.md +++ b/index.md @@ -1,3 +1,13 @@ We are a group of forecasters with a great track record working on applying forecasting to impactful questions. We hope to improve the forecasting ecosystem. -Readers might be interested in our [track record](/track-record), [people](/people) and [projects](/projects) pages. +
+ + +
Wait, no, we are a forecasting team, not a Soviet Union band.
+
+ +Scott Alexander [describes us as](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422?s=r): + +> Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”. + +We are open to forecasting consulting requests, and can be reached out at [info@samotsvety.org](mailto:info@samotsvety.org).