The Samotsvety Forecasting team at INFER/CSET-Foretell—composed out of Nuño, Misha, Eli—took:
- [1st place in 2020](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/teams?seasonid=1), with a relative score of -0.912 (vs. -0.062 by the 2nd best team). Individually we finished [5th, 6th, and 7th](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1).
- [1st place in 2021](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/teams?seasonid=2) with a relative score of -2.43 (vs. -1.039 by the 2nd best team and vs. 0.064 by “2021 Pro Forecasters”). Individually we finished [1st, 3rd, and 4th](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2).
- We still hold [1st place in 2022](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/teams?seasonid=3), despite us reducing our participation.
The above links require signing in, so here is a screenshot of our performance in the 2021 season:
<figure>
<br>
<figcaption>Note that we are a bit more than twice as good as the next best team, in terms of the relative Brier score</figcaption>
</figure>
As of 2022-09-15, we are also 4th on the nascent [Insight Prediction leaderboard](https://insightprediction.com/leaderboards) as a result of one (1) large bet when we correctly foresaw the Russian invasion of Ukraine and put our money where our mouth was:
## Individuals
Individually, Samotsvety members are, as of 2022-09-15, occupying all top 4 spots on INFER's [overall leaderboard](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/overall):
- Runs a research consultancy [Arb Research](https://arbresearch.com/)
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/yagudin) Brier score 0.191 vs. 0.283 median, ratio 0.67
- 7th and 3rd place forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1), [II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [3rd](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/yagudin/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15).
- Researcher at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/)
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/LokiOdinevich) Brier score 0.209 vs. 0.294 median, ratio 0.71
- Top 5 forecaster in the first two seasons of CSET-Foretell/INFER ([I](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1),[II](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2)); [4th](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/loki/performance?alltime=true) all-time (as of 2022/9/15)
- Figuring out what's up with AI alignment (and sometimes other stuff), writing [Foxy Scout](https://www.foxy-scout.com/).
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/elifland) Brier score 0.23 vs. 0.301 median, ratio 0.76
- [1st](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/elifland/performance?alltime=true) forecaster of all time on CSET-Foretell/INFER (as of 2022/9/15)
- 2nd in Metaculus [Economist 2021 tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11438/economist-2021-tournament-winners/), 1st in [Salk Tournament](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/contests/?selected=salk-tournament) (as of 2022/9/10).
- Track record is described in detail [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAkhqkNQByEaT8MED/personal-forecasting-retrospective-2020-2022)
- Analyst for [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/)
- [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/juancambeiro) Brier score 0.25 vs. 0.317 median, ratio 0.79
- First in [IARPA's FOCUS](https://www.iarpa.gov/research-programs/focus-2) Tournament on COVID-19 forecasting
- First in [Good Judgment Open's US Election 2020 challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/42-us-election-2020/scores)
- Second in [Good Judgment Open's In the News 2020 challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/36-in-the-news-2020/scores)
- First in the time active on [Good Judgment Open's Coronavirus Outbreak challenge](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/43-coronavirus-outbreak/scores), now third
- GJOpen [Brier score](https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/samglover97) 0.228vs 0.309 median, ratio 0.74, increased significantly since becoming inactive in late 2021
- Data scientist at [nLine, Inc.](https://nline.io/), and previously worked on crowd-sourced prediction projects on the evaluation side.
- [Top 2](https://www.infer-pub.com/forecaster/mollygh) forecaster of all time on [INFER](https://www.infer-pub.com/) (as of 2022/9/15); [2nd place forecaster in season 2021](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/2) (-1.684 relative Brier score); [8th place forecaster in season 2020](https://www.infer-pub.com/leaderboards/seasons/1) (-0.529 relative Brier score)
