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13 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Quinn Dougherty
ce169f7271 Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/develop' into docusaurus-footer 2022-08-09 16:18:48 -07:00
Quinn Dougherty
861616a6a6 replaced version in website/package.json; regenerated yarn.lock 2022-08-04 10:11:27 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
7bf0aa81c5 Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/develop' into docusaurus-footer 2022-08-04 10:03:22 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
d9c98cd411 rm version from website package.json because private: true 2022-08-04 09:59:01 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
f390e38ba2 Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/develop' into docusaurus-footer 2022-08-04 09:57:02 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
ba402a8e6a added build date to docusaurus footer 2022-08-01 18:17:13 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
e31707ebed oof, there was a hyphen in the quri website url 2022-08-01 15:22:08 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
6fe1597d57 Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/develop' into docusaurus-footer 2022-08-01 15:15:51 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
689b8b9c6f Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/develop' into docusaurus-footer 2022-08-01 13:22:52 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
0a58ebf6e5 made footer two versions 2022-08-01 13:16:24 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
0069b3df6f Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/develop' into docusaurus-footer 2022-08-01 10:44:56 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
b5386f853b yarn format compels me 2022-08-01 10:35:02 -04:00
Quinn Dougherty
21cdb4b0a3 new footer on docusaurus 2022-08-01 10:32:39 -04:00
7 changed files with 1184 additions and 1655 deletions

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# The following code was provided by Nuño Sempere, it comes directly from the post https://www.lesswrong.com/s/rDe8QE5NvXcZYzgZ3/p/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj
## Initial setup
yearly_probability_max = 0.95
yearly_probability_min = 0.66
period_probability_function(epsilon, yearly_probability) = 1 - (1 - yearly_probability) ^ (1 / epsilon)
probability_decayed(t, time_periods, period_probability) = 1 - (1 - period_probability) ^ (time_periods - t)
## Monthly decomposition
months_in_a_year=12
monthly_probability_min = period_probability_function(months_in_a_year, yearly_probability_min)
monthly_probability_max = period_probability_function(months_in_a_year, yearly_probability_max)
probability_decayed_monthly_min(t) = probability_decayed(t, months_in_a_year, monthly_probability_min)
probability_decayed_monthly_max(t) = probability_decayed(t, months_in_a_year, monthly_probability_max)
probability_decayed_monthly(t) = probability_decayed_monthly_min(t) to probability_decayed_monthly_max(t)
probability_decayed_monthly
## probability_decayed_monthly(6)
## mean(probability_decayed_monthly(6))

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# This is a cost effectiveness analysis of givedirectly, originally done by givewell, and translated into Squiggle by Sam Nolan
donation_size = 10000
proportion_of_funding_available = beta(10, 2)
total_funding_available = donation_size * proportion_of_funding_available
household_size = 3.7 to 5.7
size_of_transfer = 800 to 1200
size_of_transfer_per_person = size_of_transfer / household_size
portion_invested = 0.3 to 0.5
amount_invested = portion_invested * size_of_transfer_per_person
amount_consumed = (1 - portion_invested) * size_of_transfer_per_person
return_on_investment = 0.08 to 0.12
increase_in_consumption_from_investments = return_on_investment * amount_invested
baseline_consumption = 200 to 350
log_increase_in_consumption = log(amount_consumed + baseline_consumption) + log(baseline_consumption)
log_increase_in_consumption_from_investment = log(increase_in_consumption_from_investments + baseline_consumption) + log(baseline_consumption)
investment_duration = 8 to 12
discount_rate = beta(1.004, 20)
present_value_excluding_last_year = log_increase_in_consumption_from_investment * (1 - (1 + discount_rate) ^ (-investment_duration)) / (log(1 + discount_rate))
percent_of_investment_returned = 0.15 to 0.25
pv_consumption_last_year = (log(baseline_consumption + amount_invested * (return_on_investment + percent_of_investment_returned)) - log(baseline_consumption)) / (1 + discount_rate)^investment_duration
total_pv_of_cash_transfer = pv_consumption_last_year + present_value_excluding_last_year + log_increase_in_consumption
discount_negative_spoiler = 0.03 to 0.07
value_discounting_spoiler = discount_negative_spoiler * total_pv_of_cash_transfer
consumption_increase_per_household = value_discounting_spoiler * household_size
amount_of_transfers_made = total_funding_available / size_of_transfer
total_increase_in_ln_consumption = amount_of_transfers_made * consumption_increase_per_household
total_increase_in_ln_consumption

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xY1 = 99
aBa3 = xY1 * 2 + 1
aBa3 * xY1 + aBa3

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@ -18,3 +18,4 @@
npm-debug.log* npm-debug.log*
yarn-debug.log* yarn-debug.log*
yarn-error.log* yarn-error.log*
date.js

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@ -5,7 +5,9 @@ const katex = require("rehype-katex");
const lightCodeTheme = require("prism-react-renderer/themes/github"); const lightCodeTheme = require("prism-react-renderer/themes/github");
const darkCodeTheme = require("prism-react-renderer/themes/dracula"); const darkCodeTheme = require("prism-react-renderer/themes/dracula");
const path = require("path"); const langPackageJson = require("../squiggle-lang/package.json");
const componentsPackageJson = require("../components/package.json");
const date = require("./date");
/** @type {import('@docusaurus/types').Config} */ /** @type {import('@docusaurus/types').Config} */
const config = { const config = {
@ -108,7 +110,14 @@ const config = {
], ],
}, },
], ],
copyright: `CC0. Built with Docusaurus.`, logo: {
alt: "QURI logo",
src: "img/quri-logo-with-QURI-written-underneath.png",
href: "https://quantifieduncertainty.org",
width: 150,
height: 150,
},
copyright: `Rescript language package v${langPackageJson.version} | React components package v${componentsPackageJson.version} | Built at ${date}`,
}, },
prism: { prism: {
theme: lightCodeTheme, theme: lightCodeTheme,

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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
"license": "MIT", "license": "MIT",
"scripts": { "scripts": {
"start": "docusaurus start", "start": "docusaurus start",
"build": "docusaurus build", "build": "(echo \"module.exports = '$(date)'\" > date.js) && docusaurus build",
"clean": "docusaurus clear", "clean": "docusaurus clear",
"all": "yarn build", "all": "yarn build",
"lint": "prettier --check .", "lint": "prettier --check .",

2762
yarn.lock

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