Merge pull request #322 from quantified-uncertainty/documentation-apr18

Documentation apr18
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@ -18,13 +18,6 @@ on:
- production
- staging
- develop
pull_request:
# The branches below must be a subset of the branches above
branches:
- master
- production
- staging
- develop
schedule:
- cron: "42 19 * * 0"

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@ -1,6 +0,0 @@
{
"extends": "@parcel/config-default",
"transformers": {
"*.res": ["@parcel/transformer-raw"]
}
}

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@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
.docusaurus
build

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@ -1,12 +1,15 @@
---
title: "Functions Reference"
sidebar_position: 7
---
import { SquiggleEditor } from "../../src/components/SquiggleEditor";
# Squiggle Functions Reference
_The source of truth for this document is [this file of code](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/blob/develop/packages/squiggle-lang/src/rescript/ReducerInterface/ReducerInterface_GenericDistribution.res)_
## Distributions
## Inventory distributions
We provide starter distributions, computed symbolically.
### Normal distribution
@ -15,6 +18,10 @@ and standard deviation.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="normal(5, 1)" />
#### Validity
- `sd > 0`
### Uniform distribution
The `uniform(low, high)` function creates a uniform distribution between the
@ -22,86 +29,281 @@ two given numbers.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="uniform(3, 7)" />
#### Validity
- `low < high`
### Lognormal distribution
The `lognormal(mu, sigma)` returns the log of a normal distribution with parameters
mu and sigma. The log of lognormal(mu, sigma) is a normal distribution with parameters
mean mu and standard deviation sigma.
`mu` and `sigma`. The log of `lognormal(mu, sigma)` is a normal distribution with mean `mu` and standard deviation `sigma`.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="lognormal(0, 0.7)" />
An alternative format is also available. The "to" notation creates a lognormal
An alternative format is also available. The `to` notation creates a lognormal
distribution with a 90% confidence interval between the two numbers. We add
this convinience as lognormal distributions are commonly used in practice.
this convenience as lognormal distributions are commonly used in practice.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="2 to 10" />
#### Future feature:
Furthermore, it's also possible to create a lognormal from it's actual mean
and standard deviation, using `lognormalFromMeanAndStdDev`.
TODO: interpreter/parser doesn't provide this in current `develop` branch
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="lognormalFromMeanAndStdDev(20, 10)" />
#### Validity
- `sigma > 0`
- In `x to y` notation, `x < y`
### Beta distribution
The `beta(a, b)` function creates a beta distribution with parameters a and b:
The `beta(a, b)` function creates a beta distribution with parameters `a` and `b`:
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="beta(20, 20)" />
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="beta(10, 20)" />
#### Validity
- `a > 0`
- `b > 0`
- Empirically, we have noticed that numerical instability arises when `a < 1` or `b < 1`
### Exponential distribution
The `exponential(mean)` function creates an exponential distribution with the given
mean.
The `exponential(rate)` function creates an exponential distribution with the given
rate.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="exponential(1)" />
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="exponential(1.11)" />
### The Triangular distribution
#### Validity
- `rate > 0`
### Triangular distribution
The `triangular(a,b,c)` function creates a triangular distribution with lower
bound a, mode b and upper bound c.
bound `a`, mode `b` and upper bound `c`.
#### Validity
- `a < b < c`
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="triangular(1, 2, 4)" />
### Multimodal distriutions
### Scalar (constant dist)
The multimodal function combines 2 or more other distributions to create a weighted
Squiggle, when the context is right, automatically casts a float to a constant distribution.
## Operating on distributions
Here are the ways we combine distributions.
### Mixture of distributions
The `mixture` function combines 2 or more other distributions to create a weighted
combination of the two. The first positional arguments represent the distributions
to be combined, and the last argument is how much to weigh every distribution in the
combination.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="mx(uniform(0,1), normal(1,1), [0.5, 0.5])" />
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="mixture(uniform(0,1), normal(1,1), [0.5, 0.5])" />
It's possible to create discrete distributions using this method.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="mx(0, 1, [0.2,0.8])" />
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="mixture(0, 1, [0.2,0.8])" />
As well as mixed distributions:
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="mx(3, 8, 1 to 10, [0.2, 0.3, 0.5])" />
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="mixture(3, 8, 1 to 10, [0.2, 0.3, 0.5])" />
## Other Functions
An alias of `mixture` is `mx`
### PDF of a distribution
#### Validity
The `pdf(distribution, x)` function returns the density of a distribution at the
Using javascript's variable arguments notation, consider `mx(...dists, weights)`:
- `dists.length == weights.length`
### Addition
A horizontal right shift
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 + dist2`}
/>
### Subtraction
A horizontal left shift
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 - dist2`}
/>
### Multiplication
TODO: provide intuition pump for the semantics
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 * dist2`}
/>
We also provide concatenation of two distributions as a syntax sugar for `*`
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="(0.1 to 1) triangular(1,2,3)" />
### Division
TODO: provide intuition pump for the semantics
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 / dist2`}
/>
### Exponentiation
TODO: provide intuition pump for the semantics
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString={`(0.1 to 1) ^ beta(2, 3)`} />
### Taking the base `e` exponential
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist = triangular(1,2,3)
exp(dist)`}
/>
### Taking logarithms
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist = triangular(1,2,3)
log(dist)`}
/>
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist = beta(1,2)
log10(dist)`}
/>
Base `x`
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`x = 2
dist = beta(2,3)
log(dist, x)`}
/>
#### Validity
- `x` must be a scalar
- See [the current discourse](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/issues/304)
### Pointwise addition
**Pointwise operations are done with `PointSetDist` internals rather than `SampleSetDist` internals**.
TODO: this isn't in the new interpreter/parser yet.
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 .+ dist2`}
/>
### Pointwise subtraction
TODO: this isn't in the new interpreter/parser yet.
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 .- dist2`}
/>
### Pointwise multiplication
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 .* dist2`}
/>
### Pointwise division
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 ./ dist2`}
/>
### Pointwise exponentiation
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dist1 .^ dist2`}
/>
### Pointwise logarithm
TODO: write about the semantics and the case handling re scalar vs. dist and log base.
<SquiggleEditor
initialSquiggleString={`dist1 = 1 to 10
dist2 = triangular(1,2,3)
dotLog(dist1, dist2)`}
/>
## Standard functions on distributions
### Probability density function
The `pdf(dist, x)` function returns the density of a distribution at the
given point x.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="pdf(normal(0,1),0)" />
### Inverse of a distribution
#### Validity
The `inv(distribution, prob)` gives the value x or which the probability for all values
lower than x is equal to prob. It is the inverse of `cdf`.
- `x` must be a scalar
- `dist` must be a distribution
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="inv(normal(0,1),0.5)" />
### Cumulative density function
### CDF of a distribution
The `cdf(distribution,x)` gives the cumulative probability of the distribution
The `cdf(dist, x)` gives the cumulative probability of the distribution
or all values lower than x. It is the inverse of `inv`.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="cdf(normal(0,1),0)" />
### Mean of a distribution
#### Validity
- `x` must be a scalar
- `dist` must be a distribution
### Inverse CDF
The `inv(dist, prob)` gives the value x or which the probability for all values
lower than x is equal to prob. It is the inverse of `cdf`.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="inv(normal(0,1),0.5)" />
#### Validity
- `prob` must be a scalar (please only put it in `(0,1)`)
- `dist` must be a distribution
### Mean
The `mean(distribution)` function gives the mean (expected value) of a distribution.
@ -112,3 +314,55 @@ The `mean(distribution)` function gives the mean (expected value) of a distribut
The `sample(distribution)` samples a given distribution.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="sample(normal(0, 10))" />
## Normalization
Some distribution operations (like horizontal shift) return an unnormalized distriibution.
We provide a `normalize` function
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="normalize((0.1 to 1) + triangular(0.1, 1, 10))" />
#### Validity - Input to `normalize` must be a dist
We provide a predicate `isNormalized`, for when we have simple control flow
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="isNormalized((0.1 to 1) * triangular(0.1, 1, 10))" />
#### Validity
- Input to `isNormalized` must be a dist
## Convert any distribution to a sample set distribution
`toSampleSet` has two signatures
It is unary when you use an internal hardcoded number of samples
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="toSampleSet(0.1 to 1)" />
And binary when you provide a number of samples (floored)
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="toSampleSet(0.1 to 1, 100)" />
## `inspect`
You may like to debug by right clicking your browser and using the _inspect_ functionality on the webpage, and viewing the _console_ tab. Then, wrap your squiggle output with `inspect` to log an internal representation.
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="inspect(toSampleSet(0.1 to 1, 100))" />
Save for a logging side effect, `inspect` does nothing to input and returns it.
## Truncate
You can cut off from the left
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="truncateLeft(0.1 to 1, 0.5)" />
You can cut off from the right
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="truncateRight(0.1 to 1, 10)" />
You can cut off from both sides
<SquiggleEditor initialSquiggleString="truncate(0.1 to 1, 0.5, 1.5)" />

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@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
---
title: Statistical properties of algebraic combinations of distributions for property testing.
title: Invariants of Probability Distributions
urlcolor: blue
author:
- Nuño Sempere
@ -7,13 +7,17 @@ author:
abstract: This document outlines some properties about algebraic combinations of distributions. It is meant to facilitate property tests for [Squiggle](https://squiggle-language.com/), an estimation language for forecasters. So far, we are focusing on the means, the standard deviation and the shape of the pdfs.
---
Invariants to check with property tests.
_This document right now is normative and aspirational, not a description of the testing that's currently done_.
## Algebraic combinations
The academic keyword to search for in relation to this document is "[algebra of random variables](https://wikiless.org/wiki/Algebra_of_random_variables?lang=en)". Squiggle doesn't yet support getting the standard deviation, denoted by $\sigma$, but such support could yet be added.
## Means and standard deviations
### Means and standard deviations
### Sums
#### Sums
$$
mean(f+g) = mean(f) + mean(g)
@ -29,7 +33,7 @@ $$
mean(normal(a,b) + normal(c,d)) = mean(normal(a+c, \sqrt{b^2 + d^2}))
$$
### Subtractions
#### Subtractions
$$
mean(f-g) = mean(f) - mean(g)
@ -39,7 +43,7 @@ $$
\sigma(f-g) = \sqrt{\sigma(f)^2 + \sigma(g)^2}
$$
### Multiplications
#### Multiplications
$$
mean(f \cdot g) = mean(f) \cdot mean(g)
@ -49,15 +53,15 @@ $$
\sigma(f \cdot g) = \sqrt{ (\sigma(f)^2 + mean(f)) \cdot (\sigma(g)^2 + mean(g)) - (mean(f) \cdot mean(g))^2}
$$
### Divisions
#### Divisions
Divisions are tricky, and in general we don't have good expressions to characterize properties of ratios. In particular, the ratio of two normals is a Cauchy distribution, which doesn't have to have a mean.
## Probability density functions (pdfs)
### Probability density functions (pdfs)
Specifying the pdf of the sum/multiplication/... of distributions as a function of the pdfs of the individual arguments can still be done. But it requires integration. My sense is that this is still doable, and I (Nuño) provide some _pseudocode_ to do this.
### Sums
#### Sums
Let $f, g$ be two independently distributed functions. Then, the pdf of their sum, evaluated at a point $z$, expressed as $(f + g)(z)$, is given by:
@ -110,15 +114,31 @@ let pdfOfSum = (pdf1, pdf2, cdf1, cdf2, z) => {
};
```
## Cumulative density functions
### Cumulative density functions
TODO
## Inverse cumulative density functions
### Inverse cumulative density functions
TODO
# To do:
## `pdf`, `cdf`, and `inv`
With $\forall dist, pdf := x \mapsto \texttt{pdf}(dist, x) \land cdf := x \mapsto \texttt{cdf}(dist, x) \land inv := p \mapsto \texttt{inv}(dist, p)$,
### `cdf` and `inv` are inverses
$$
\forall x \in (0,1), cdf(inv(x)) = x \land \forall x \in \texttt{dom}(cdf), x = inv(cdf(x))
$$
### The codomain of `cdf` equals the open interval `(0,1)` equals the codomain of `pdf`
$$
\texttt{cod}(cdf) = (0,1) = \texttt{cod}(pdf)
$$
## To do:
- Provide sources or derivations, useful as this document becomes more complicated
- Provide definitions for the probability density function, exponential, inverse, log, etc.

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@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ const config = {
sidebarPath: require.resolve("./sidebars.js"),
// Please change this to your repo.
editUrl:
"https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/tree/master/packages/website/",
"https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/tree/develop/packages/website/",
remarkPlugins: [math],
rehypePlugins: [katex],
},
@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ const config = {
showReadingTime: true,
// Please change this to your repo.
editUrl:
"https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/tree/master/packages/website/",
"https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/tree/develop/packages/website/",
},
theme: {
customCss: require.resolve("./src/css/custom.css"),
@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ const config = {
title: "Squiggle",
logo: {
alt: "Squiggle Logo",
src: "img/logo.svg",
src: "img/quri-logo.png",
},
items: [
{
@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ const config = {
{ to: "/blog", label: "Blog", position: "left" },
{ to: "/playground", label: "Playground", position: "left" },
{
href: "https://github.com/QURIresearch/squiggle",
href: "https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle",
label: "GitHub",
position: "right",
},
@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ const config = {
},
{
label: "GitHub",
href: "https://github.com/QURIresearch/squiggle",
href: "https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle",
},
],
},

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@ -22,10 +22,7 @@ function HomepageHeader() {
export default function Home() {
const { siteConfig } = useDocusaurusContext();
return (
<Layout
title={`Hello from ${siteConfig.title}`}
description="Description will go into a meta tag in <head />"
>
<Layout title={`${siteConfig.title}`} description="An estimation language">
<HomepageHeader />
<main>
<HomepageFeatures />

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