Making model accessible with GenericDistribution

src/LimitedDomainCdf.re

@@ -26,19 +26,18 @@ let _lastElement = (a: array('a)) =>
 
 let probabilityBeforeDomainMax = (t: t) => _lastElement(t.distribution.ys);
 
-let domainMaxX = (t: t) => t.domainMaxX;
+let domainMaxX = (t: t) => t.domainMaxX /*   CdfLibrary.Distribution.findX(yPoint, t.distribution)*/;
 
-let probabilityDistribution = (t: t) =>
+// let probabilityDistribution = (t: t) =>
-  t.distribution |> CdfLibrary.Distribution.toPdf;
+//   t.distribution |> CdfLibrary.Distribution.toPdf;
 
-let probability = (t: t, xPoint: float) =>
+// let probability = (t: t, xPoint: float) =>
-  CdfLibrary.Distribution.findY(xPoint, probabilityDistribution(t));
+//   CdfLibrary.Distribution.findY(xPoint, probabilityDistribution(t));
 
-let probabilityInverse = (t: t, yPoint: float) =>
+// let probabilityInverse = (t: t, yPoint: float) =>
-  CdfLibrary.Distribution.findX(yPoint, probabilityDistribution(t));
+//   CdfLibrary.Distribution.findX(yPoint, probabilityDistribution(t));
 
-let cumulativeProbability = (t: t, xPoint: float) =>
+// let cumulativeProbability = (t: t, xPoint: float) =>
-  CdfLibrary.Distribution.findY(xPoint, t.distribution);
+//   CdfLibrary.Distribution.findY(xPoint, t.distribution);
 
-let cumulativeProbabilityInverse = (t: t, yPoint: float) =>
+// let cumulativeProbabilityInverse = (t: t, yPoint: float) =>
-  CdfLibrary.Distribution.findX(yPoint, t.distribution);

src/TimeLimitedDomainCdf.re

@@ -27,21 +27,20 @@ let probabilityBeforeDomainMax = (t: t) =>
   LimitedDomainCdf.probabilityBeforeDomainMax(t.limitedDomainCdf);
 
 let domainMaxX = (t: t) =>
-  LimitedDomainCdf.probabilityBeforeDomainMax(t.limitedDomainCdf);
+  LimitedDomainCdf.probabilityBeforeDomainMax(t.limitedDomainCdf) /*   |> (r => RelativeTimePoint.toTime(t.timeVector, XValue(r)))*/;
 
-let probability = (t: t, m: MomentRe.Moment.t) => {
+// let probability = (t: t, m: MomentRe.Moment.t) => {
-  RelativeTimePoint.toXValue(t.timeVector, Time(m))
+//   RelativeTimePoint.toXValue(t.timeVector, Time(m))
-  |> LimitedDomainCdf.probability(t.limitedDomainCdf);
+//   |> LimitedDomainCdf.probability(t.limitedDomainCdf);
-};
+// };
 
-let probabilityInverse = (t: t, y: float) =>
+// let probabilityInverse = (t: t, y: float) =>
-  LimitedDomainCdf.probabilityInverse(t.limitedDomainCdf, y)
+//   LimitedDomainCdf.probabilityInverse(t.limitedDomainCdf, y)
-  |> (r => RelativeTimePoint.toTime(t.timeVector, XValue(r)));
+//   |> (r => RelativeTimePoint.toTime(t.timeVector, XValue(r)));
 
-let cumulativeProbability = (t: t, m: MomentRe.Moment.t) =>
+// let cumulativeProbability = (t: t, m: MomentRe.Moment.t) =>
-  RelativeTimePoint.toXValue(t.timeVector, Time(m))
+//   RelativeTimePoint.toXValue(t.timeVector, Time(m))
-  |> LimitedDomainCdf.cumulativeProbability(t.limitedDomainCdf);
+//   |> LimitedDomainCdf.cumulativeProbability(t.limitedDomainCdf);
 
-let cumulativeProbabilityInverse = (t: t, y: float) =>
+// let cumulativeProbabilityInverse = (t: t, y: float) =>
-  LimitedDomainCdf.cumulativeProbabilityInverse(t.limitedDomainCdf, y)
+//   LimitedDomainCdf.cumulativeProbabilityInverse(t.limitedDomainCdf, y)
-  |> (r => RelativeTimePoint.toTime(t.timeVector, XValue(r)));

src/lib/DistributionTypes.re

@@ -49,88 +49,3 @@ type genericDistribution = {
   domain,
   unit: distributionUnit,
 };
-
-module Shape = {
-  module Continuous = {
-    let fromArrays = (xs, ys): continuousShape => {xs, ys};
-  };
-
-  module Discrete = {
-    let fromArrays = (xs, ys): continuousShape => {xs, ys};
-  };
-
-  module Mixed = {
-    let make = (~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction) => {
-      continuous,
-      discrete,
-      discreteProbabilityMassFraction,
-    };
-
-    module Builder = {
-      type assumption =
-        | ADDS_TO_1
-        | ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY;
-      type assumptions = {
-        continuous: assumption,
-        discrete: assumption,
-        discreteProbabilityMass: option(float),
-      };
-      let build = (~continuous, ~discrete, ~assumptions) =>
-        switch (assumptions) {
-        | {
-            continuous: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
-            discrete: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
-            discreteProbabilityMass: Some(r),
-          } =>
-          // TODO: Fix this, it's wrong :(
-          Some(
-            make(~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction=r),
-          )
-        | {
-            continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
-            discrete: ADDS_TO_1,
-            discreteProbabilityMass: Some(r),
-          } =>
-          Some(
-            make(~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction=r),
-          )
-        | {
-            continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
-            discrete: ADDS_TO_1,
-            discreteProbabilityMass: None,
-          } =>
-          None
-        | {
-            continuous: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
-            discrete: ADDS_TO_1,
-            discreteProbabilityMass: None,
-          } =>
-          None
-        | {
-            continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
-            discrete: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
-            discreteProbabilityMass: None,
-          } =>
-          None
-        | _ => None
-        };
-    };
-  };
-};
-
-module GenericDistribution = {
-  let make =
-      (
-        ~generationSource,
-        ~probabilityType=Pdf,
-        ~domain=Complete,
-        ~unit=Unspecified,
-        (),
-      )
-      : genericDistribution => {
-    generationSource,
-    probabilityType,
-    domain,
-    unit,
-  };
-};

src/lib/GenericDistribution.re

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+open DistributionTypes;
+let make =
+    (
+      ~generationSource,
+      ~probabilityType=Pdf,
+      ~domain=Complete,
+      ~unit=Unspecified,
+      (),
+    )
+    : genericDistribution => {
+  generationSource,
+  probabilityType,
+  domain,
+  unit,
+};
+
+let renderIfNeeded =
+    (~sampleCount=1000, t: genericDistribution): option(genericDistribution) => {
+  switch (t.generationSource) {
+  | GuesstimatorString(s) =>
+    let shape = Guesstimator.stringToMixedShape(~string=s, ~sampleCount, ());
+    shape
+    |> E.O.fmap((shape: DistributionTypes.mixedShape) =>
+         make(
+           ~generationSource=Shape(Mixed(shape)),
+           ~probabilityType=Cdf,
+           ~domain=t.domain,
+           ~unit=t.unit,
+           (),
+         )
+       );
+  | Shape(_) => Some(t)
+  };
+};

src/lib/Prop.re

@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ module Value = {
     | FloatPoint(float)
     | Probability(float)
     | Conditional(conditional)
+    | GenericDistribution(DistributionTypes.genericDistribution)
     | TimeLimitedDomainCdf(TimeLimitedDomainCdf.t)
     | TimeLimitedDomainCdfLazy(
         (string => Types.ContinuousDistribution.t) => TimeLimitedDomainCdf.t,
@@ -31,6 +32,7 @@ module Value = {
       }
     | SelectSingle(r) => r
     | FloatCdf(r) => r
+    | GenericDistribution(_) => ""
     | TimeLimitedDomainCdf(_) => ""
     | TimeLimitedDomainCdfLazy(_) => ""
     | Probability(r) => (r *. 100. |> Js.Float.toFixed) ++ "%"
@@ -55,41 +57,29 @@ module Value = {
     | SelectSingle(r) => r |> ReasonReact.string
     | ConditionalArray(r) => "Array" |> ReasonReact.string
     | Conditional(r) => r.name |> ReasonReact.string
-    | TimeLimitedDomainCdfLazy(r) => <div />
+    | GenericDistribution(r) =>
-    //   let timeLimited = r(CdfLibrary.Distribution.fromString(_, 1000));
+      let newDistribution =
-    //   let cdf = timeLimited.limitedDomainCdf.distribution;
+        GenericDistribution.renderIfNeeded(~sampleCount=1000, r);
-    //   <>
+      switch (newDistribution) {
-    //     <Chart height=100 data={cdf |> Types.ContinuousDistribution.toJs} />
+      | Some({generationSource: Shape(Mixed({continuous: n}))}) =>
-    //     <Chart
+        <div>
-    //       height=100
+          <Chart height=100 data={n |> Shape.Continuous.toJs} />
-    //       data={
+          <Chart
-    //         cdf
+            height=100
-    //         |> CdfLibrary.Distribution.toPdf
+            data={n |> Shape.Continuous.toCdf |> Shape.Continuous.toJs}
-    //         |> Types.ContinuousDistribution.toJs
+          />
-    //       }
+        </div>
-    //     />
+      | None => "Something went wrong" |> ReasonReact.string
-    //     {FloatCdf.logNormal(50., 20.) |> ReasonReact.string}
+      | _ => <div />
-    //   </>;
+      };
+    | TimeLimitedDomainCdfLazy(_) => <div />
     | TimeLimitedDomainCdf(r) =>
       let cdf: Types.ContinuousDistribution.t =
         r.limitedDomainCdf.distribution;
       <>
         <Chart height=100 data={cdf |> Types.ContinuousDistribution.toJs} />
       </>;
-    | FloatCdf(r) => <div />
+    | FloatCdf(_) => <div />
-    // let cdf: Types.MixedDistribution.t =
-    //   CdfLibrary.Distribution.fromString(r, 2000);
-    // <>
-    //   <Chart
-    //     height=100
-    //     data={
-    //       cdf
-    //       |> CdfLibrary.Distribution.toPdf
-    //       |> Types.ContinuousDistribution.toJs
-    //     }
-    //   />
-    //   {r |> ReasonReact.string}
-    // </>;
     | Probability(r) =>
       (r *. 100. |> Js.Float.toFixed) ++ "%" |> ReasonReact.string
     | DateTime(r) => r |> MomentRe.Moment.defaultFormat |> ReasonReact.string

src/lib/Shape.re

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+open DistributionTypes;
+
+module Continuous = {
+  let fromArrays = (xs, ys): continuousShape => {xs, ys};
+  let toJs = (t: continuousShape) => {
+    {"xs": t.xs, "ys": t.ys};
+  };
+  let toPdf = CdfLibrary.Distribution.toPdf;
+  let toCdf = CdfLibrary.Distribution.toCdf;
+  let findX = CdfLibrary.Distribution.findX;
+  let findY = CdfLibrary.Distribution.findY;
+};
+
+module Discrete = {
+  type t = discreteShape;
+  let fromArrays = (xs, ys): discreteShape => {xs, ys};
+  let _lastElement = (a: array('a)) =>
+    switch (Belt.Array.size(a)) {
+    | 0 => None
+    | n => Belt.Array.get(a, n)
+    };
+
+  let derivative = (p: t) => {
+    let (xs, ys) =
+      Belt.Array.zip(p.xs, p.ys)
+      ->Belt.Array.reduce([||], (items, (x, y)) =>
+          switch (_lastElement(items)) {
+          | Some((_, yLast)) => [|(x, y -. yLast)|]
+          | None => [|(x, y)|]
+          }
+        )
+      |> Belt.Array.unzip;
+    fromArrays(xs, ys);
+  };
+
+  let integral = (p: t) => {
+    let (xs, ys) =
+      Belt.Array.zip(p.xs, p.ys)
+      ->Belt.Array.reduce([||], (items, (x, y)) =>
+          switch (_lastElement(items)) {
+          | Some((_, yLast)) => [|(x, y +. yLast)|]
+          | None => [|(x, y)|]
+          }
+        )
+      |> Belt.Array.unzip;
+    fromArrays(xs, ys);
+  };
+};
+
+module Mixed = {
+  let make = (~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction) => {
+    continuous,
+    discrete,
+    discreteProbabilityMassFraction,
+  };
+
+  module Builder = {
+    type assumption =
+      | ADDS_TO_1
+      | ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY;
+    type assumptions = {
+      continuous: assumption,
+      discrete: assumption,
+      discreteProbabilityMass: option(float),
+    };
+    let build = (~continuous, ~discrete, ~assumptions) =>
+      switch (assumptions) {
+      | {
+          continuous: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
+          discrete: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
+          discreteProbabilityMass: Some(r),
+        } =>
+        // TODO: Fix this, it's wrong :(
+        Some(
+          make(~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction=r),
+        )
+      | {
+          continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
+          discrete: ADDS_TO_1,
+          discreteProbabilityMass: Some(r),
+        } =>
+        Some(
+          make(~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction=r),
+        )
+      | {
+          continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
+          discrete: ADDS_TO_1,
+          discreteProbabilityMass: None,
+        } =>
+        None
+      | {
+          continuous: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
+          discrete: ADDS_TO_1,
+          discreteProbabilityMass: None,
+        } =>
+        None
+      | {
+          continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
+          discrete: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
+          discreteProbabilityMass: Some(r),
+        } =>
+        Some(
+          make(~continuous, ~discrete, ~discreteProbabilityMassFraction=r),
+        )
+      | _ => None
+      };
+  };
+};

src/models/EAFunds.re

@@ -113,14 +113,22 @@ module Model = {
     switch (output) {
     | DONATIONS
     | PAYOUTS =>
-      Prop.Value.FloatCdf(
+      let difference =
         calculateDifference(
           currentValue(group, output),
           dateTime,
           currentDateTime,
           yearlyMeanGrowthRateIfNotClosed(group),
-        ),
+        );
-      )
+      let genericDistribution =
+        GenericDistribution.make(
+          ~generationSource=GuesstimatorString(difference),
+          ~probabilityType=Cdf,
+          ~domain=Complete,
+          ~unit=Unspecified,
+          (),
+        );
+      Prop.Value.GenericDistribution(genericDistribution);
     | CHANCE_OF_EXISTENCE =>
       let lazyDistribution = r =>
         TimeLimitedDomainCdf.make(

src/models/GlobalCatastrophe.re

@@ -1,13 +1,14 @@
 module Model = {
   let make = (currentDateTime: MomentRe.Moment.t) => {
-    let lazyDistribution = r =>
+    let genericDistribution =
-      TimeLimitedDomainCdf.make(
+      GenericDistribution.make(
-        ~timeVector={zero: currentDateTime, unit: `years},
+        ~generationSource=GuesstimatorString(FloatCdf.logNormal(20., 3.)),
-        ~distribution=r(FloatCdf.logNormal(20., 3.)),
+        ~probabilityType=Cdf,
-        ~probabilityAtMaxX=0.7,
+        ~domain=RightLimited({xPoint: 200., excludingProbabilityMass: 0.3}),
-        ~maxX=`x(200.),
+        ~unit=Time({zero: currentDateTime, unit: `years}),
+        (),
       );
-    Prop.Value.TimeLimitedDomainCdfLazy(lazyDistribution);
+    Prop.Value.GenericDistribution(genericDistribution);
   };
 };
 

src/utility/CdfLibrary.re

@@ -5,15 +5,15 @@ module JS = {
     ys: array(float),
   };
 
-  let distToJs = (d: Types.ContinuousDistribution.t) =>
+  let distToJs = (d: DistributionTypes.continuousShape) =>
     distJs(~xs=d.xs, ~ys=d.ys);
 
-  let jsToDist = (d: distJs): Types.ContinuousDistribution.t => {
+  let jsToDist = (d: distJs): DistributionTypes.continuousShape => {
     xs: xsGet(d),
     ys: ysGet(d),
   };
 
-  let doAsDist = (f, d: Types.ContinuousDistribution.t) =>
+  let doAsDist = (f, d: DistributionTypes.continuousShape) =>
     d |> distToJs |> f |> jsToDist;
 
   [@bs.module "./CdfLibrary.js"]
@@ -34,40 +34,6 @@ module JS = {
   [@bs.module "./CdfLibrary.js"]
   external differentialEntropy: (int, distJs) => distJs =
     "differentialEntropy";
-
-  [@bs.module "./CdfLibrary.js"]
-  external scoreNonMarketCdfCdf: (int, distJs, distJs, float) => distJs =
-    "scoreNonMarketCdfCdf";
-
-  module Guesstimator = {
-    [@bs.deriving abstract]
-    type discrete = {
-      xs: array(float),
-      ys: array(float),
-    };
-
-    let jsToDistDiscrete = (d: discrete): Types.DiscreteDistribution.t => {
-      xs: xsGet(d),
-      ys: ysGet(d),
-    };
-
-    [@bs.deriving abstract]
-    type combined = {
-      continuous: distJs,
-      discrete,
-    };
-
-    let toContinous = (r: combined) => continuousGet(r) |> jsToDist;
-    let toDiscrete = (r: combined): Types.DiscreteDistribution.t =>
-      discreteGet(r) |> jsToDistDiscrete;
-    let toMixed = (r: combined): Types.MixedDistribution.t => {
-      discrete: toDiscrete(r),
-      continuous: toContinous(r),
-    };
-
-    [@bs.module "./GuesstimatorLibrary.js"]
-    external toGuesstimator: (string, int) => combined = "run";
-  };
 };
 
 module Distribution = {
@@ -75,9 +41,6 @@ module Distribution = {
   let toCdf = dist => dist |> JS.doAsDist(JS.cdfToPdf);
   let findX = (y, dist) => dist |> JS.distToJs |> JS.findX(y);
   let findY = (x, dist) => dist |> JS.distToJs |> JS.findY(x);
-  let fromString = (str: string, sampleCount: int) =>
-    JS.Guesstimator.toGuesstimator(str, sampleCount)
-    |> JS.Guesstimator.toMixed;
   let integral = dist => dist |> JS.distToJs |> JS.integral;
   let differentialEntropy = (maxCalculationLength, dist) =>
     dist

src/utility/Guesstimator.re

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+module Internals = {
+  [@bs.deriving abstract]
+  type discrete = {
+    xs: array(float),
+    ys: array(float),
+  };
+
+  let jsToDistDiscrete = (d: discrete): DistributionTypes.discreteShape => {
+    xs: xsGet(d),
+    ys: ysGet(d),
+  };
+
+  [@bs.deriving abstract]
+  type combined = {
+    continuous: CdfLibrary.JS.distJs,
+    discrete,
+  };
+
+  let toContinous = (r: combined): DistributionTypes.continuousShape =>
+    continuousGet(r) |> CdfLibrary.JS.jsToDist;
+  let toDiscrete = (r: combined): DistributionTypes.discreteShape =>
+    discreteGet(r) |> jsToDistDiscrete;
+
+  [@bs.module "./GuesstimatorLibrary.js"]
+  external toCombinedFormat: (string, int) => combined = "run";
+
+  let toMixedShape = (r: combined): option(DistributionTypes.mixedShape) => {
+    let assumptions: Shape.Mixed.Builder.assumptions = {
+      continuous: ADDS_TO_1,
+      discrete: ADDS_TO_CORRECT_PROBABILITY,
+      discreteProbabilityMass: Some(0.3),
+    };
+    Shape.Mixed.Builder.build(
+      ~continuous=toContinous(r),
+      ~discrete=toDiscrete(r),
+      ~assumptions,
+    );
+  };
+};
+
+let stringToMixedShape = (~string, ~sampleCount=1000, ()) =>
+  Internals.toCombinedFormat(string, sampleCount) |> Internals.toMixedShape;