new footer on docusaurus
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# The following code was provided by Nuño Sempere, it comes directly from the post https://www.lesswrong.com/s/rDe8QE5NvXcZYzgZ3/p/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj
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## Initial setup
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yearly_probability_max = 0.95
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yearly_probability_min = 0.66
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period_probability_function(epsilon, yearly_probability) = 1 - (1 - yearly_probability) ^ (1 / epsilon)
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probability_decayed(t, time_periods, period_probability) = 1 - (1 - period_probability) ^ (time_periods - t)
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## Monthly decomposition
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months_in_a_year=12
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monthly_probability_min = period_probability_function(months_in_a_year, yearly_probability_min)
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monthly_probability_max = period_probability_function(months_in_a_year, yearly_probability_max)
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probability_decayed_monthly_min(t) = probability_decayed(t, months_in_a_year, monthly_probability_min)
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probability_decayed_monthly_max(t) = probability_decayed(t, months_in_a_year, monthly_probability_max)
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probability_decayed_monthly(t) = probability_decayed_monthly_min(t) to probability_decayed_monthly_max(t)
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probability_decayed_monthly
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## probability_decayed_monthly(6)
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## mean(probability_decayed_monthly(6))
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# This is a cost effectiveness analysis of givedirectly, originally done by givewell, and translated into Squiggle by Sam Nolan
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donation_size = 10000
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proportion_of_funding_available = beta(10, 2)
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total_funding_available = donation_size * proportion_of_funding_available
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household_size = 3.7 to 5.7
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size_of_transfer = 800 to 1200
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size_of_transfer_per_person = size_of_transfer / household_size
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portion_invested = 0.3 to 0.5
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amount_invested = portion_invested * size_of_transfer_per_person
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amount_consumed = (1 - portion_invested) * size_of_transfer_per_person
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return_on_investment = 0.08 to 0.12
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increase_in_consumption_from_investments = return_on_investment * amount_invested
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baseline_consumption = 200 to 350
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log_increase_in_consumption = log(amount_consumed + baseline_consumption) + log(baseline_consumption)
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log_increase_in_consumption_from_investment = log(increase_in_consumption_from_investments + baseline_consumption) + log(baseline_consumption)
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investment_duration = 8 to 12
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discount_rate = beta(1.004, 20)
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present_value_excluding_last_year = log_increase_in_consumption_from_investment * (1 - (1 + discount_rate) ^ (-investment_duration)) / (log(1 + discount_rate))
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percent_of_investment_returned = 0.15 to 0.25
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pv_consumption_last_year = (log(baseline_consumption + amount_invested * (return_on_investment + percent_of_investment_returned)) - log(baseline_consumption)) / (1 + discount_rate)^investment_duration
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total_pv_of_cash_transfer = pv_consumption_last_year + present_value_excluding_last_year + log_increase_in_consumption
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discount_negative_spoiler = 0.03 to 0.07
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value_discounting_spoiler = discount_negative_spoiler * total_pv_of_cash_transfer
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consumption_increase_per_household = value_discounting_spoiler * household_size
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amount_of_transfers_made = total_funding_available / size_of_transfer
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total_increase_in_ln_consumption = amount_of_transfers_made * consumption_increase_per_household
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total_increase_in_ln_consumption
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xY1 = 99
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aBa3 = xY1 * 2 + 1
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aBa3 * xY1 + aBa3
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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ const katex = require("rehype-katex");
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const lightCodeTheme = require("prism-react-renderer/themes/github");
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const darkCodeTheme = require("prism-react-renderer/themes/dracula");
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const path = require("path");
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const packageJson = require("./package.json")
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/** @type {import('@docusaurus/types').Config} */
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const config = {
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],
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},
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],
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copyright: `CC0. Built with Docusaurus.`,
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logo: {
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alt: "QURI logo",
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src: "img/quri-logo-with-QURI-written-underneath.png",
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href: "https://quantified-uncertainty.org",
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width: 150,
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height: 150
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},
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copyright: `v${packageJson.version}`,
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},
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prism: {
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theme: lightCodeTheme,
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@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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{
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"name": "squiggle-website",
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"version": "0.0.0",
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"version": "0.3.0",
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"private": true,
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"license": "MIT",
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"scripts": {
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