Minor cleanup

src/core/MixedCdf.re

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+type t = DistributionTypes.mixedShape;
+
+type yPdfPoint = {
+  continuous: float,
+  discrete: float,
+};
+
+let getY = (t: t, x: float): yPdfPoint => {
+  continuous: Shape.Continuous.findY(x, t.continuous),
+  discrete: Shape.Discrete.findY(x, t.discrete),
+} /* }*/;
+
+// let getIntegralY = (t: t, x: float): float => {
+//   continuous: Shape.Continuous.findY(x, t.continuous),
+//   discrete: Shape.Discrete.findY(x, t.discrete),

src/core/Shape.re

@@ -14,9 +14,11 @@ module XYShape = {
   };
 
   let fmap = (t: t, y): t => {xs: t.xs, ys: t.ys |> E.A.fmap(y)};
+
   let yFold = (fn, t: t) => {
     E.A.fold_left(fn, 0., t.ys);
   };
+
   let ySum = yFold((a, b) => a +. b);
 
   let fromArrays = (xs, ys): t => {xs, ys};
@@ -34,8 +36,8 @@ module XYShape = {
     fromArrays(xs, ys);
   };
 
-  let derivative = transverse((aCurrent, aLast) => aCurrent -. aLast);
   let integral = transverse((aCurrent, aLast) => aCurrent +. aLast);
+  let derivative = transverse((aCurrent, aLast) => aCurrent -. aLast);
 };
 
 module Continuous = {
@@ -84,6 +86,16 @@ module Mixed = {
     discrete,
     discreteProbabilityMassFraction,
   };
+
+  type yPdfPoint = {
+    continuous: float,
+    discrete: float,
+  };
+
+  let getY = (t: DistributionTypes.mixedShape, x: float): yPdfPoint => {
+    continuous: Continuous.findY(x, t.continuous),
+    discrete: Discrete.findY(x, t.discrete),
+  };
 };
 
 module DomainMixed = {

src/interface/Prop.re

@@ -12,6 +12,11 @@ module Value = {
     | GenericDistribution(DistributionTypes.genericDistribution)
     | ConditionalArray(array(conditional))
     | FloatCdf(string);
+
+  module ConditionalArray = {
+    let get = (conditionals: array(conditional), name: string) =>
+      Belt.Array.getBy(conditionals, (c: conditional) => c.name == name);
+  };
 };
 
 module ValueCombination = {

src/lib/GuesstimatorDist.re

@@ -17,4 +17,5 @@ let logNormal = (mean: float, std: float) => {
   );
 };
 
-let divide = (str1: string, str2: string) => {j|$(str1)/$(str2)|j};
+let divide = (str1: string, str2: string) => {j|$(str1)/$(str2)|j};
+let min = (str1: string, str2: string) => {j|min($(str1),$(str2))|j};

src/models/EAFunds.re

@@ -103,13 +103,19 @@ module Model = {
     | (_, CHANCE_OF_EXISTENCE) => 0.0
     };
   };
+
+  let xRisk = conditionals =>
+    Prop.Value.ConditionalArray.get(conditionals, "Global Existential Event");
+
   let make =
       (
         group: group,
         dateTime: MomentRe.Moment.t,
         currentDateTime: MomentRe.Moment.t,
         output: output,
+        conditionals: array(Prop.Value.conditional),
       ) => {
+    let xRisk = xRisk(conditionals);
     switch (output) {
     | DONATIONS
     | PAYOUTS =>
@@ -120,16 +126,37 @@ module Model = {
           currentDateTime,
           yearlyMeanGrowthRateIfNotClosed(group),
         );
+      let str =
+        switch (xRisk) {
+        | Some({truthValue: true}) => "0"
+        | Some({truthValue: false}) => difference
+        | None => "uniform(0,1) > .3 ? " ++ difference ++ ": 0"
+        };
       let genericDistribution =
         GenericDistribution.make(
-          ~generationSource=GuesstimatorString(difference),
+          ~generationSource=GuesstimatorString(str),
           ~probabilityType=Cdf,
           ~domain=Complete,
           ~unit=Unspecified,
           (),
         );
       Prop.Value.GenericDistribution(genericDistribution);
-    | CHANCE_OF_EXISTENCE => Prop.Value.Probability(0.3)
+    | CHANCE_OF_EXISTENCE =>
+      Prop.Value.GenericDistribution(
+        GenericDistribution.make(
+          ~generationSource=
+            GuesstimatorString(
+              GuesstimatorDist.min(
+                GlobalCatastrophe.guesstimatorString,
+                GuesstimatorDist.logNormal(40., 4.),
+              ),
+            ),
+          ~probabilityType=Cdf,
+          ~domain=RightLimited({xPoint: 100., excludingProbabilityMass: 0.3}),
+          ~unit=Time({zero: currentDateTime, unit: `years}),
+          (),
+        ),
+      )
     };
   };
 };
@@ -158,7 +185,7 @@ module Interface = {
         Some(DateTime(intendedYear)),
         Some(DateTime(currentYear)),
         Some(SelectSingle(output)),
-        _,
+        Some(ConditionalArray(conditionals)),
       |] =>
       choiceFromString(fund)
       |> E.O.fmap(fund =>
@@ -167,6 +194,7 @@ module Interface = {
              intendedYear,
              currentYear,
              outputFromString(output),
+             conditionals,
            )
          )
     | _ => None
@@ -229,9 +257,9 @@ module Interface = {
             SelectSingle({
               default: Some("Output"),
               options: [
-                {name: "Donations | Exists", id: "donations"},
+                {name: "Donations", id: "donations"},
-                {name: "Funding | Exists", id: "funding"},
+                {name: "Funding", id: "funding"},
-                {name: "Exists", id: "exists"},
+                {name: "Closing", id: "exists"},
               ],
             }),
           (),

src/models/GlobalCatastrophe.re

@@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
+let guesstimatorString = GuesstimatorDist.logNormal(20., 3.);
+
 module Model = {
   let make = (currentDateTime: MomentRe.Moment.t) => {
     let genericDistribution =
       GenericDistribution.make(
-        ~generationSource=
+        ~generationSource=GuesstimatorString(guesstimatorString),
-          GuesstimatorString(GuesstimatorDist.logNormal(20., 3.)),
         ~probabilityType=Cdf,
         ~domain=RightLimited({xPoint: 200., excludingProbabilityMass: 0.3}),
         ~unit=Time({zero: currentDateTime, unit: `years}),