From 0ef6d106ea4171c2b4a5a5513fc29199ed563248 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Ozzie Gooen <ozzieagooen@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2020 19:49:59 +0100
Subject: [PATCH] Fixed issues with primary models

---
 src/distribution/DistPlusIngredients.re | 43 ++++++++++++++++---------
 src/models/EAFunds.re                   | 30 +++++++++--------
 src/utility/GuesstimatorDist.re         |  6 ++--
 3 files changed, 47 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/distribution/DistPlusIngredients.re b/src/distribution/DistPlusIngredients.re
index 6bba41af..36a7e663 100644
--- a/src/distribution/DistPlusIngredients.re
+++ b/src/distribution/DistPlusIngredients.re
@@ -24,19 +24,32 @@ let toDistPlus =
       t: distPlusIngredients,
     )
     : option(distPlus) => {
-  let samples =
-    Guesstimator.stringToSamples(t.guesstimatorString, sampleCount);
-  let shape = Samples.T.toShape(~samples, ~outputXYPoints, ~kernelWidth, ());
-  shape
-  |> E.O.fmap(
-       Distributions.DistPlus.make(
-         ~shape=_,
-         ~domain=t.domain,
-         ~unit=t.unit,
-         ~guesstimatorString=Some(t.guesstimatorString),
-         (),
-       ),
-     )
-  |> E.O.fmap(Distributions.DistPlus.T.scaleToIntegralSum(~intendedSum=1.0))
-  |> applyTruncation(truncateTo);
+  let toDist = shape =>
+    Distributions.DistPlus.make(
+      ~shape,
+      ~domain=t.domain,
+      ~unit=t.unit,
+      ~guesstimatorString=Some(t.guesstimatorString),
+      (),
+    )
+    |> Distributions.DistPlus.T.scaleToIntegralSum(~intendedSum=1.0);
+  let parsed1 = MathJsParser.fromString(t.guesstimatorString);
+  let shape =
+    switch (parsed1) {
+    | Ok(r) =>
+      let shape = SymbolicDist.toShape(truncateTo |> E.O.default(10000), r);
+      Some(shape |> toDist);
+    | _ =>
+      let fewSamples = Guesstimator.stringToSamples(t.guesstimatorString, 10);
+      if (fewSamples |> E.A.length > 0) {
+        let samples =
+          Guesstimator.stringToSamples(t.guesstimatorString, sampleCount);
+        let shape =
+          Samples.T.toShape(~samples, ~outputXYPoints, ~kernelWidth, ());
+        shape |> E.O.fmap(toDist) |> applyTruncation(truncateTo);
+      } else {
+        None;
+      };
+    };
+    shape;
 };
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/models/EAFunds.re b/src/models/EAFunds.re
index 96407d88..aeacb1b2 100644
--- a/src/models/EAFunds.re
+++ b/src/models/EAFunds.re
@@ -35,26 +35,26 @@ module Data = {
     makeFundWithInfo(
       "Animal Welfare Fund",
       Fund(ANIMAL_WELFARE),
-      Some(4000.0),
-      Some(10.0),
+      Some(400000.0),
+      Some(100000.0),
     ),
     makeFundWithInfo(
       "Global Health Fund",
       Fund(GLOBAL_HEALTH),
-      Some(4000.0),
-      Some(10.0),
+      Some(400000.0),
+      Some(100000.0),
     ),
     makeFundWithInfo(
       "Long Term Future Fund",
       Fund(LONG_TERM_FUTURE),
-      Some(4000.0),
-      Some(10.0),
+      Some(400000.0),
+      Some(100000.0),
     ),
     makeFundWithInfo(
       "Meta Fund",
       Fund(ANIMAL_WELFARE),
-      Some(4000.0),
-      Some(10.0),
+      Some(400000.0),
+      Some(100000.0),
     ),
     makeFundWithInfo("All", All, None, None),
   |];
@@ -63,14 +63,14 @@ module Data = {
 module Model = {
   open Data;
   let currentYear = 2020.;
-  let firstYearStdDev = 0.2;
+  let firstYearStdDev = 400000.;
   type yearlyNumericDiff = {
     meanDiff: float,
     stdDiff: float,
   };
 
   let yearlyMeanGrowthRateIfNotClosed = (group: group): yearlyNumericDiff => {
-    {meanDiff: 1.1, stdDiff: 1.08};
+    {meanDiff: 1.1, stdDiff: 1.2};
   };
 
   let calculateDifference =
@@ -141,10 +141,12 @@ module Model = {
         | None =>
           let foo =
             getGlobalCatastropheChance(dateTime)
-            |> E.O.fmap(E.Float.with2DigitsPrecision)
-            |> E.O.fmap((r: string) =>
-                 "uniform(0,1) > " ++ r ++ " ? " ++ difference ++ ": 0"
-               );
+            |> E.O.fmap(r => {
+                 let chance = r;
+                 let opposite = 1.0 -. r;
+                 let reg = difference;
+                 {j|mm(0, $reg, [$chance, $opposite])|j};
+               });
           foo |> E.O.default("");
         };
 
diff --git a/src/utility/GuesstimatorDist.re b/src/utility/GuesstimatorDist.re
index 74f54e50..eb843076 100644
--- a/src/utility/GuesstimatorDist.re
+++ b/src/utility/GuesstimatorDist.re
@@ -10,9 +10,9 @@ let normal = (mean: float, std: float) =>
 let logNormal = (mean: float, std: float) => {
   Js.Float.(
     {
-      let nMean = toPrecisionWithPrecision(Js.Math.log10(mean), ~digits=4);
-      let nStd = toPrecisionWithPrecision(Js.Math.log10(std), ~digits=2);
-      {j|lognormal($(nMean), $(nStd))|j};
+      let nMean = toPrecisionWithPrecision(mean, ~digits=4);
+      let nStd = toPrecisionWithPrecision(std, ~digits=2);
+      {j|lognormal({mean: $(nMean), stdev: $(nStd)})|j};
     }
   );
 };