69 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
69 lines
3.9 KiB
Markdown
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---
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sidebar_position: 1
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title: Overview
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---
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Squiggle is a minimalist programming language for probabilistic estimation. It's meant for intuitively-driven quantitative estimation instead of data analysis or data-driven statistical techniques.
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The basics of Squiggle are fairly straightforward. This can be enough for many models. The more advanced functionality can take some time to learn.
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## Using Squiggle
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You can currently interact with Squiggle in a few ways:
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**[Playground](/playground)**
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The [Squiggle Playground](/playground) is a nice tool for working with small models and making prototypes. You can make simple sharable links, but you can't save models that change over time.
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**[Typescript Library](https://www.npmjs.com/package/@quri/squiggle-lang)**
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Squiggle is built using [Rescript](https://rescript-lang.org/), and is accessible via a simple Typescript library. You can use this library to either run Squiggle code in full, or to call select specific functions within Squiggle (though this latter functionality is very minimal).
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**[React Components Library](https://www.npmjs.com/package/@quri/squiggle-components)**
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All of the components used in the playground and documentation are available in a separate component NPM repo. You can see the full Storybook of components [here](https://squiggle-components.netlify.app).
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**[Visual Studio Code Extension](https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=QURI.vscode-squiggle)**
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There's a simple [VS Code extension](https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=QURI.vscode-squiggle) for running and visualizing Squiggle code. We find that VS Code is a useful editor for managing larger Squiggle setups.
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## Squiggle Vs. Other Tools
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### What Squiggle Is
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- A simple programming language for doing math with probability distributions.
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- An embeddable language that can be used in Javascript applications.
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- A tool to encode functions as forecasts that can be embedded in other applications.
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### What Squiggle Is Not
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- A complete replacement for enterprise Risk Analysis tools. (See [Crystal Ball](https://www.oracle.com/applications/crystalball/), [@Risk](https://www.palisade.com/risk/), [Lumina Analytica](https://lumina.com/))
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- A [probabilistic programming language](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilistic_programming). Squiggle does not support Bayesian inference.
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- A tool for substantial data analysis. (See programming languages like [Python](https://www.python.org/) or [Julia](https://julialang.org/))
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- A programming language for anything other than estimation.
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- A visually-driven tool. (See [Guesstimate](https://www.getguesstimate.com/) and [Causal](https://causal.app/))
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### Strengths
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- Simple and readable syntax, especially for dealing with probabilistic math.
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- Fast for relatively small models. Strong for rapid prototyping.
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- Optimized for using some numeric and symbolic approaches, not just Monte Carlo.
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- Embeddable in Javascript.
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- Free and open-source.
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### Weaknesses
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- Limited scientific capabilities.
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- Much slower than serious probabilistic programming languages on sizeable models.
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- Can't do Bayesian backwards inference.
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- Essentially no support for libraries or modules (yet).
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- Still very new, so a tiny ecosystem.
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- Still very new, so there are likely math bugs.
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- Generally not as easy to use as Guesstimate or Causal, especially for non programmers.
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## Organization
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Squiggle is one of the main projects of [The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/). QURI is a nonprofit funded primarily by [Effective Altruist](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/) donors.
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## Get started
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- [Gallery](./Discussions/Gallery)
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- [Squiggle playground](/playground)
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- [Language basics](./Guides/Language)
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- [Squiggle functions source of truth](./Guides/Functions)
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- [Known bugs](./Discussions/Bugs)
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- [Original lesswrong sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/rDe8QE5NvXcZYzgZ3)
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- [Author your squiggle models as Observable notebooks](https://observablehq.com/@hazelfire/squiggle)
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