21 lines
1.1 KiB
Plaintext
21 lines
1.1 KiB
Plaintext
|
# The following code was provided by Nuño Sempere, it comes directly from the post https://www.lesswrong.com/s/rDe8QE5NvXcZYzgZ3/p/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj
|
||
|
|
## Initial setup
|
||
|
|
yearly_probability_max = 0.95
|
||
|
|
yearly_probability_min = 0.66
|
||
|
|
period_probability_function(epsilon, yearly_probability) = 1 - (1 - yearly_probability) ^ (1 / epsilon)
|
||
|
|
probability_decayed(t, time_periods, period_probability) = 1 - (1 - period_probability) ^ (time_periods - t)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
## Monthly decomposition
|
||
|
|
months_in_a_year=12
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
monthly_probability_min = period_probability_function(months_in_a_year, yearly_probability_min)
|
||
|
|
monthly_probability_max = period_probability_function(months_in_a_year, yearly_probability_max)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
probability_decayed_monthly_min(t) = probability_decayed(t, months_in_a_year, monthly_probability_min)
|
||
|
|
probability_decayed_monthly_max(t) = probability_decayed(t, months_in_a_year, monthly_probability_max)
|
||
|
|
probability_decayed_monthly(t) = probability_decayed_monthly_min(t) to probability_decayed_monthly_max(t)
|
||
|
|
|
||
|
|
probability_decayed_monthly
|
||
|
|
## probability_decayed_monthly(6)
|
||
|
|
## mean(probability_decayed_monthly(6))
|