quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
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metaforecast/metaforecasts.json
NunoSempere 6833849fa6 feat: Added Kalshi 
Also some fixes, and I think some functionality to get randomly selected forecasts
2021-07-27 23:44:43 +02:00

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[
{
"title": "I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/2a0a34fe-b7c7-4a51-8295-9907445ccfee",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.29000000000000004,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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{
"title": "I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts",
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{
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{
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{
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{
"title": "I finish and post the climate change essay I'm working on",
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{
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{
"title": "I finish and post the culture wars essay I'm working on",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "By end of year, some other post beats NYT commentary for my most popular post",
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{
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{
"title": "I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year)",
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"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
"name": "No",
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{
"title": "I run an ACX reader survey",
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"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
"name": "No",
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"qualityindicators": {
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{
"title": "[redacted] wins the book review contest",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 4,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've written at least five chapters of some non-Unsong book I hope to publish",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6a054535-cbe5-4656-86b8-6370e71b403b",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Unsong is published",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/70f977b5-17b7-4635-a3a3-597a95b184f0",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.895,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for Unsong",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c9471266-1b50-4c94-aaa2-ddf4dc6b2fc8",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.265,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed at least two more dictator books",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.515,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed Scout Mindset",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31999999999999995,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed Nixonland",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/cfaf1565-5384-4d7b-9832-01bdeffec820",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.28500000000000003,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed How Asia Works",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3920f55c-13b3-403c-a21d-4fa1d0410ae3",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.08999999999999997,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8)",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/67704cd7-baf8-4328-826c-a333e812eca1",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.195,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8049999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/240c60fd-10ea-40b2-9a78-67b3f1c62582",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/15ddf814-1241-4ad2-b38d-49fde3efc807",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/1fe2c460-7869-46f1-b102-d3f9333db2b2",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/39b844b5-62a1-48e3-b5ae-370eb1bdf6bb",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "ACX is earning more money than it is right now",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/55a247e6-3d77-4315-a2a1-3962304563b7",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31499999999999995,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I have changed my pricing scheme",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/b8d1c023-e016-4410-9948-f671cfee4ecf",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.835,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I have switched medical records systems",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3ea13b6e-7513-4c99-bdbf-8b94d00919f2",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.835,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c278967e-e0d1-411c-885f-ed2f117b8d47",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/e998d61f-b3aa-4a52-a293-e28a9a3ddf89",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/caf5a371-0be0-4c22-8e92-bfc252607e66",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/58d4018a-9e2a-41d0-b1fc-a5657d6adfe6",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/e5e44e00-420c-42ef-b919-743fccc86bb6",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "I've written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27)",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/91bff842-c822-4233-abe5-7e18e5cf1869",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 7,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Prospera has at least 1000 residents",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a14db0ca-fd63-4c87-a097-1e76de540f96",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 4,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Netanyahu is still Israeli PM",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ad360f9d-9d5b-425d-b9f2-cffff17ccca3",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 10,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/950e80ff-3b9e-4a71-8df9-16e06b8a34a3",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9d40c0d0-c9fa-479a-95ec-c1c525230fa5",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.925,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/109b7b87-543d-4df7-8137-f58e2aaea0e7",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.255,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/091ba247-070e-4523-be8d-2f53e83e11c4",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 4,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Trump is allowed back on Twitter",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6e62aaf4-c4c9-4b21-a4c1-23b2698ea30f",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.915,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ef192cb7-9d16-496a-99ca-acac2769b896",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.215,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9f13515d-f7cf-4747-9353-46fd2f3d7d31",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Newsom recalled as CA governor",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/33dd0e76-96ef-4404-9fc5-c653e57b35b5",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 6,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Yang is New York mayor",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/5a8c9c64-517a-4c12-bea3-2fa72ea44307",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/68a7b974-31d6-4277-81f3-94c22dd8619f",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.055,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a3ea3584-59b9-44e9-a936-be8065138a17",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-08T09:47:42.007Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Afghanistan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Afghanistan is Ashraf Ghani, who has been in power for 6.9 years. Afghanistan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003884",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.620Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Afghanistan",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ashraf Ghani",
"month_risk": "0.0003884",
"annual_risk": "0.0083593",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "6.916667",
"country_code": "AFG",
"country_abb": "AFG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Afghanistan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Afghanistan is Ashraf Ghani, who has been in power for 6.9 years. Afghanistan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0083593",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9916407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.647Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Afghanistan",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ashraf Ghani",
"month_risk": "0.0003884",
"annual_risk": "0.0083593",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "6.916667",
"country_code": "AFG",
"country_abb": "AFG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Albania in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Albania is Rama, who has been in power for 7.9 years. Albania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002673",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997327,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Albania",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rama",
"month_risk": "0.0002673",
"annual_risk": "0.0053848",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.13",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "7.916667",
"country_code": "ALB",
"country_abb": "ALB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Albania in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Albania is Rama, who has been in power for 7.9 years. Albania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0053848",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9946152,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Albania",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rama",
"month_risk": "0.0002673",
"annual_risk": "0.0053848",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.13",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "7.916667",
"country_code": "ALB",
"country_abb": "ALB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Algeria in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Algeria is Tebboune, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Algeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004486",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995514,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Algeria",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tebboune",
"month_risk": "0.0004486",
"annual_risk": "0.0124602",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "1.666667",
"country_code": "DZA",
"country_abb": "ALG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Algeria in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Algeria is Tebboune, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Algeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0124602",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9875398,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Algeria",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tebboune",
"month_risk": "0.0004486",
"annual_risk": "0.0124602",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "1.666667",
"country_code": "DZA",
"country_abb": "ALG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Andorra in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Andorra is Espot Zamora, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Andorra has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001218",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Andorra",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Espot Zamora",
"month_risk": "0.0001218",
"annual_risk": "0.0014719",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "AND",
"country_abb": "AND"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Andorra in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Andorra is Espot Zamora, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Andorra has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0014719",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9985281,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Andorra",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Espot Zamora",
"month_risk": "0.0001218",
"annual_risk": "0.0014719",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "AND",
"country_abb": "AND"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Angola in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Angola is Lourenco, who has been in power for 3.9 years. Angola has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0027273",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9972727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Angola",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lourenco",
"month_risk": "0.0027273",
"annual_risk": "0.0141767",
"risk_change_percent": "0.22",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "3.916667",
"country_code": "AGO",
"country_abb": "ANG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Angola in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Angola is Lourenco, who has been in power for 3.9 years. Angola has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0141767",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9858233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Angola",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lourenco",
"month_risk": "0.0027273",
"annual_risk": "0.0141767",
"risk_change_percent": "0.22",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "3.916667",
"country_code": "AGO",
"country_abb": "ANG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Antigua and Barbuda in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Antigua and Barbuda is Browne, who has been in power for 7.2 years. Antigua and Barbuda has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003243",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996757,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Antigua and Barbuda",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Browne",
"month_risk": "0.0003243",
"annual_risk": "0.0038642",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "7.166667",
"country_code": "ATG",
"country_abb": "AAB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Antigua and Barbuda in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Antigua and Barbuda is Browne, who has been in power for 7.2 years. Antigua and Barbuda has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0038642",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9961358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Antigua and Barbuda",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Browne",
"month_risk": "0.0003243",
"annual_risk": "0.0038642",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "7.166667",
"country_code": "ATG",
"country_abb": "AAB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Argentina in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Argentina is Fernandez, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Argentina has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 38 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003394",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996606,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Argentina",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Fernandez",
"month_risk": "0.0003394",
"annual_risk": "0.0040547",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "38",
"leader_years": "1.666667",
"country_code": "ARG",
"country_abb": "ARG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Argentina in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Argentina is Fernandez, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Argentina has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 38 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0040547",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9959453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Argentina",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Fernandez",
"month_risk": "0.0003394",
"annual_risk": "0.0040547",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "38",
"leader_years": "1.666667",
"country_code": "ARG",
"country_abb": "ARG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Armenia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Armenia is Pashinyan, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Armenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005867",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994133,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Armenia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Pashinyan",
"month_risk": "0.0005867",
"annual_risk": "0.010475",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.08",
"regime_years": "3",
"leader_years": "3.25",
"country_code": "ARM",
"country_abb": "ARM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Armenia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Armenia is Pashinyan, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Armenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.010475",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.989525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Armenia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Pashinyan",
"month_risk": "0.0005867",
"annual_risk": "0.010475",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.08",
"regime_years": "3",
"leader_years": "3.25",
"country_code": "ARM",
"country_abb": "ARM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Australia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Australia is Morrison, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Australia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 120 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000843",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999157,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Australia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Morrison",
"month_risk": "0.0000843",
"annual_risk": "0.0010096",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "120",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "AUS",
"country_abb": "AUL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Australia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Australia is Morrison, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Australia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 120 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0010096",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9989904,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Australia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Morrison",
"month_risk": "0.0000843",
"annual_risk": "0.0010096",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "120",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "AUS",
"country_abb": "AUL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Austria in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Austria is Kurz, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Austria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 66 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001039",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998961,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Austria",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kurz",
"month_risk": "0.0001039",
"annual_risk": "0.0012454",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "66",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "AUT",
"country_abb": "AUS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Austria in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Austria is Kurz, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Austria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 66 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0012454",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9987546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Austria",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kurz",
"month_risk": "0.0001039",
"annual_risk": "0.0012454",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "66",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "AUT",
"country_abb": "AUS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Azerbaijan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Azerbaijan is Ilhma Aliyev, who has been in power for 17.8 years. Azerbaijan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003745",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996255,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Azerbaijan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ilhma Aliyev",
"month_risk": "0.0003745",
"annual_risk": "0.0045437",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "17.83333",
"country_code": "AZE",
"country_abb": "AZE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Azerbaijan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Azerbaijan is Ilhma Aliyev, who has been in power for 17.8 years. Azerbaijan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0045437",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9954563,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Azerbaijan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ilhma Aliyev",
"month_risk": "0.0003745",
"annual_risk": "0.0045437",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "17.83333",
"country_code": "AZE",
"country_abb": "AZE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bahamas in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bahamas is Hubert Minnis, who has been in power for 4.3 years. Bahamas has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 48 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002202",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997798,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bahamas",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hubert Minnis",
"month_risk": "0.0002202",
"annual_risk": "0.0026528",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "48",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "BHS",
"country_abb": "BHM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bahamas in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bahamas is Hubert Minnis, who has been in power for 4.3 years. Bahamas has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 48 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0026528",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9973472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bahamas",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hubert Minnis",
"month_risk": "0.0002202",
"annual_risk": "0.0026528",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "48",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "BHS",
"country_abb": "BHM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bahrain in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bahrain is Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah, who has been in power for 22.4 years. Bahrain has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003835",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bahrain",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah",
"month_risk": "0.0003835",
"annual_risk": "0.0044777",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "50",
"leader_years": "22.41667",
"country_code": "BHR",
"country_abb": "BAH"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bahrain in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bahrain is Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah, who has been in power for 22.4 years. Bahrain has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0044777",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9955223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bahrain",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hamad Isa Ibn Al-Khalifah",
"month_risk": "0.0003835",
"annual_risk": "0.0044777",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "50",
"leader_years": "22.41667",
"country_code": "BHR",
"country_abb": "BAH"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bangladesh in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bangladesh is Hasina Wazed, who has been in power for 12.6 years. Bangladesh has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003052",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996948,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bangladesh",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hasina Wazed",
"month_risk": "0.0003052",
"annual_risk": "0.0066026",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "12.58333",
"country_code": "BGD",
"country_abb": "BNG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bangladesh in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bangladesh is Hasina Wazed, who has been in power for 12.6 years. Bangladesh has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0066026",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9933974,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bangladesh",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hasina Wazed",
"month_risk": "0.0003052",
"annual_risk": "0.0066026",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "12.58333",
"country_code": "BGD",
"country_abb": "BNG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Barbados in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Barbados is Mia Mottley, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Barbados has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 55 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002877",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997123,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Barbados",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mia Mottley",
"month_risk": "0.0002877",
"annual_risk": "0.0034333",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "55",
"leader_years": "3.25",
"country_code": "BRB",
"country_abb": "BAR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Barbados in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Barbados is Mia Mottley, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Barbados has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 55 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0034333",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9965667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Barbados",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mia Mottley",
"month_risk": "0.0002877",
"annual_risk": "0.0034333",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "55",
"leader_years": "3.25",
"country_code": "BRB",
"country_abb": "BAR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Belarus in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Belarus is Lukashenko, who has been in power for 27.1 years. Belarus has a personal regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003433",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Belarus",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lukashenko",
"month_risk": "0.0003433",
"annual_risk": "0.0041319",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "27.08333",
"country_code": "BLR",
"country_abb": "BLR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Belarus in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Belarus is Lukashenko, who has been in power for 27.1 years. Belarus has a personal regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0041319",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9958681,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Belarus",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lukashenko",
"month_risk": "0.0003433",
"annual_risk": "0.0041319",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "27.08333",
"country_code": "BLR",
"country_abb": "BLR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Belgium in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Belgium is Alexander De Croo, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Belgium has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 101 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001062",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998938,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Belgium",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Alexander De Croo",
"month_risk": "0.0001062",
"annual_risk": "0.0012805",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "101",
"leader_years": "0.8333333",
"country_code": "BEL",
"country_abb": "BEL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Belgium in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Belgium is Alexander De Croo, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Belgium has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 101 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0012805",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9987195,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Belgium",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Alexander De Croo",
"month_risk": "0.0001062",
"annual_risk": "0.0012805",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "101",
"leader_years": "0.8333333",
"country_code": "BEL",
"country_abb": "BEL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Belize in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Belize is Juan Antonio Briceno, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Belize has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003705",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996295,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Belize",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Juan Antonio Briceno",
"month_risk": "0.0003705",
"annual_risk": "0.0046881",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "BLZ",
"country_abb": "BLZ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Belize in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Belize is Juan Antonio Briceno, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Belize has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0046881",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9953119,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Belize",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Juan Antonio Briceno",
"month_risk": "0.0003705",
"annual_risk": "0.0046881",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "BLZ",
"country_abb": "BLZ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Benin in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Benin is Talon, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Benin has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005088",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994912,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Benin",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Talon",
"month_risk": "0.0005088",
"annual_risk": "0.011861",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "5.333333",
"country_code": "BEN",
"country_abb": "BEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Benin in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Benin is Talon, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Benin has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.011861",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.988139,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Benin",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Talon",
"month_risk": "0.0005088",
"annual_risk": "0.011861",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "5.333333",
"country_code": "BEN",
"country_abb": "BEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bhutan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bhutan is Lotay Tshering, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Bhutan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005682",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994318,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bhutan",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lotay Tshering",
"month_risk": "0.0005682",
"annual_risk": "0.006542",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "2.75",
"country_code": "BTN",
"country_abb": "BHU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bhutan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bhutan is Lotay Tshering, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Bhutan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.006542",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.993458,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bhutan",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lotay Tshering",
"month_risk": "0.0005682",
"annual_risk": "0.006542",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "2.75",
"country_code": "BTN",
"country_abb": "BHU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bolivia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bolivia is Arce, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Bolivia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006401",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993599,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Arce",
"month_risk": "0.0006401",
"annual_risk": "0.0082079",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "BOL",
"country_abb": "BOL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bolivia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bolivia is Arce, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Bolivia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0082079",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9917921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bolivia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Arce",
"month_risk": "0.0006401",
"annual_risk": "0.0082079",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "BOL",
"country_abb": "BOL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bosnia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bosnia is Dodik, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Bosnia has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 26 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002786",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"regime_type": "Foreign",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Dodik",
"month_risk": "0.0002786",
"annual_risk": "0.0033573",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "26",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "BIH",
"country_abb": "BOS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bosnia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bosnia is Dodik, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Bosnia has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 26 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0033573",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9966427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"regime_type": "Foreign",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Dodik",
"month_risk": "0.0002786",
"annual_risk": "0.0033573",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "26",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "BIH",
"country_abb": "BOS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Botswana in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Botswana is Mokgweetsi Masisi, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Botswana has a party regime type which has lasted for 55 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.00039",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99961,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Botswana",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mokgweetsi Masisi",
"month_risk": "0.00039",
"annual_risk": "0.0061",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "55",
"leader_years": "3.333333",
"country_code": "BWA",
"country_abb": "BOT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Botswana in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Botswana is Mokgweetsi Masisi, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Botswana has a party regime type which has lasted for 55 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0061",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9939,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Botswana",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mokgweetsi Masisi",
"month_risk": "0.00039",
"annual_risk": "0.0061",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "55",
"leader_years": "3.333333",
"country_code": "BWA",
"country_abb": "BOT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Brazil in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Brazil is Bolsonaro, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Brazil has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 37 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003372",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996628,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Brazil",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bolsonaro",
"month_risk": "0.0003372",
"annual_risk": "0.0040732",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "37",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "BRA",
"country_abb": "BRA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Brazil in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Brazil is Bolsonaro, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Brazil has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 37 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0040732",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9959268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Brazil",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bolsonaro",
"month_risk": "0.0003372",
"annual_risk": "0.0040732",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "37",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "BRA",
"country_abb": "BRA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Brunei in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Brunei is Hassanal Bolkiah, who has been in power for 53.8 years. Brunei has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 54 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002193",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997807,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Brunei",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hassanal Bolkiah",
"month_risk": "0.0002193",
"annual_risk": "0.0025746",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "54",
"leader_years": "53.83333",
"country_code": "BRN",
"country_abb": "BRU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Brunei in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Brunei is Hassanal Bolkiah, who has been in power for 53.8 years. Brunei has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 54 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0025746",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9974254,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Brunei",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hassanal Bolkiah",
"month_risk": "0.0002193",
"annual_risk": "0.0025746",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "54",
"leader_years": "53.83333",
"country_code": "BRN",
"country_abb": "BRU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bulgaria in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bulgaria is Boiko Borisov, who has been in power for 4.3 years. Bulgaria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002951",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997049,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Boiko Borisov",
"month_risk": "0.0002951",
"annual_risk": "0.0045022",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "BGR",
"country_abb": "BUL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Bulgaria in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Bulgaria is Boiko Borisov, who has been in power for 4.3 years. Bulgaria has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0045022",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9954978,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Boiko Borisov",
"month_risk": "0.0002951",
"annual_risk": "0.0045022",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "BGR",
"country_abb": "BUL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Burkina Faso in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Burkina Faso is Kabore, who has been in power for 5.7 years. Burkina Faso has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 6 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009192",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9990808,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Burkina Faso",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kabore",
"month_risk": "0.0009192",
"annual_risk": "0.0281841",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.28",
"regime_years": "6",
"leader_years": "5.666667",
"country_code": "BFA",
"country_abb": "BFO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Burkina Faso in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Burkina Faso is Kabore, who has been in power for 5.7 years. Burkina Faso has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 6 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0281841",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9718159,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Burkina Faso",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kabore",
"month_risk": "0.0009192",
"annual_risk": "0.0281841",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.28",
"regime_years": "6",
"leader_years": "5.666667",
"country_code": "BFA",
"country_abb": "BFO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Burundi in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Burundi is Ndayishimiye, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Burundi has a personal regime type which has lasted for 6 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0035541",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9964459,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Burundi",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ndayishimiye",
"month_risk": "0.0035541",
"annual_risk": "0.0180475",
"risk_change_percent": "0.27",
"regime_years": "6",
"leader_years": "1.166667",
"country_code": "BDI",
"country_abb": "BUI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Burundi in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Burundi is Ndayishimiye, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Burundi has a personal regime type which has lasted for 6 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0180475",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9819525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Burundi",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ndayishimiye",
"month_risk": "0.0035541",
"annual_risk": "0.0180475",
"risk_change_percent": "0.27",
"regime_years": "6",
"leader_years": "1.166667",
"country_code": "BDI",
"country_abb": "BUI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cambodia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cambodia is Hun Sen, who has been in power for 24.1 years. Cambodia has a party regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003186",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cambodia",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hun Sen",
"month_risk": "0.0003186",
"annual_risk": "0.0056765",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "24.08333",
"country_code": "KHM",
"country_abb": "CAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cambodia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cambodia is Hun Sen, who has been in power for 24.1 years. Cambodia has a party regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0056765",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9943235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cambodia",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hun Sen",
"month_risk": "0.0003186",
"annual_risk": "0.0056765",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "24.08333",
"country_code": "KHM",
"country_abb": "CAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cameroon in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cameroon is Biya, who has been in power for 38.8 years. Cameroon has a personal regime type which has lasted for 38 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005831",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994169,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cameroon",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Biya",
"month_risk": "0.0005831",
"annual_risk": "0.0154792",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "38",
"leader_years": "38.75",
"country_code": "CMR",
"country_abb": "CAO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cameroon in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cameroon is Biya, who has been in power for 38.8 years. Cameroon has a personal regime type which has lasted for 38 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0154792",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9845208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cameroon",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Biya",
"month_risk": "0.0005831",
"annual_risk": "0.0154792",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "38",
"leader_years": "38.75",
"country_code": "CMR",
"country_abb": "CAO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Canada in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Canada is Trudeau, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Canada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 90 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000114",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Canada",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Trudeau",
"month_risk": "0.000114",
"annual_risk": "0.001366",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "90",
"leader_years": "5.75",
"country_code": "CAN",
"country_abb": "CAN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Canada in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Canada is Trudeau, who has been in power for 5.8 years. Canada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 90 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.001366",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998634,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Canada",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Trudeau",
"month_risk": "0.000114",
"annual_risk": "0.001366",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "90",
"leader_years": "5.75",
"country_code": "CAN",
"country_abb": "CAN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cape Verde in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cape Verde is Correia e Silva, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Cape Verde has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004019",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cape Verde",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Correia e Silva",
"month_risk": "0.0004019",
"annual_risk": "0.0083728",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "5.333333",
"country_code": "CPV",
"country_abb": "CAP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cape Verde in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cape Verde is Correia e Silva, who has been in power for 5.3 years. Cape Verde has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0083728",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9916272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cape Verde",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Correia e Silva",
"month_risk": "0.0004019",
"annual_risk": "0.0083728",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "5.333333",
"country_code": "CPV",
"country_abb": "CAP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Central African Republic in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Central African Republic is Touadera, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Central African Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000875",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Central African Republic",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Touadera",
"month_risk": "0.000875",
"annual_risk": "0.0188636",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "5",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "CAF",
"country_abb": "CEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Central African Republic in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Central African Republic is Touadera, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Central African Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0188636",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9811364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Central African Republic",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Touadera",
"month_risk": "0.000875",
"annual_risk": "0.0188636",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "5",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "CAF",
"country_abb": "CEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Chad in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Chad is Mahamat Idriss Deby, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Chad has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 0 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0076262",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9923738,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Chad",
"regime_type": "Military Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mahamat Idriss Deby",
"month_risk": "0.0076262",
"annual_risk": "0.0702118",
"risk_change_percent": "0.12",
"regime_years": "0",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "TCD",
"country_abb": "CHA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Chad in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Chad is Mahamat Idriss Deby, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Chad has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 0 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0702118",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9297882,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Chad",
"regime_type": "Military Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mahamat Idriss Deby",
"month_risk": "0.0076262",
"annual_risk": "0.0702118",
"risk_change_percent": "0.12",
"regime_years": "0",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "TCD",
"country_abb": "CHA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Chile in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Chile is Sebastian Pinera, who has been in power for 3.4 years. Chile has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004208",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995792,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Chile",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sebastian Pinera",
"month_risk": "0.0004208",
"annual_risk": "0.0073687",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "3.416667",
"country_code": "CHL",
"country_abb": "CHL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Chile in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Chile is Sebastian Pinera, who has been in power for 3.4 years. Chile has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0073687",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9926313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Chile",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sebastian Pinera",
"month_risk": "0.0004208",
"annual_risk": "0.0073687",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "3.416667",
"country_code": "CHL",
"country_abb": "CHL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in China in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of China is Xi Jinping, who has been in power for 8.8 years. China has a party regime type which has lasted for 73 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000937",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "China",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Xi Jinping",
"month_risk": "0.0000937",
"annual_risk": "0.0020607",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "73",
"leader_years": "8.75",
"country_code": "CHN",
"country_abb": "CHN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in China in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of China is Xi Jinping, who has been in power for 8.8 years. China has a party regime type which has lasted for 73 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0020607",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9979393,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "China",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Xi Jinping",
"month_risk": "0.0000937",
"annual_risk": "0.0020607",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "73",
"leader_years": "8.75",
"country_code": "CHN",
"country_abb": "CHN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Colombia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Colombia is Ivan Duque, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Colombia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 63 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003744",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Colombia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ivan Duque",
"month_risk": "0.0003744",
"annual_risk": "0.0045642",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "63",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "COL",
"country_abb": "COL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Colombia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Colombia is Ivan Duque, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Colombia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 63 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0045642",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9954358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Colombia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ivan Duque",
"month_risk": "0.0003744",
"annual_risk": "0.0045642",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "63",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "COL",
"country_abb": "COL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Comoros in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Comoros is Assoumani, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Comoros has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0012859",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9987141,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Comoros",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Assoumani",
"month_risk": "0.0012859",
"annual_risk": "0.0178781",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.31",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "COM",
"country_abb": "COM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Comoros in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Comoros is Assoumani, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Comoros has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0178781",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9821219,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Comoros",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Assoumani",
"month_risk": "0.0012859",
"annual_risk": "0.0178781",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.31",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "COM",
"country_abb": "COM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Republic of the Congo in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Republic of the Congo is Nguesso, who has been in power for 23.8 years. Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006727",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993273,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Republic of the Congo",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nguesso",
"month_risk": "0.0006727",
"annual_risk": "0.0197742",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.21",
"regime_years": "24",
"leader_years": "23.83333",
"country_code": "COG",
"country_abb": "CON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Republic of the Congo is Nguesso, who has been in power for 23.8 years. Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0197742",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9802258,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Republic of the Congo",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nguesso",
"month_risk": "0.0006727",
"annual_risk": "0.0197742",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.21",
"regime_years": "24",
"leader_years": "23.83333",
"country_code": "COG",
"country_abb": "CON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Democratic Republic of the Congo in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Democratic Republic of the Congo is Felix Tschisekedi, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Democratic Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006139",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993861,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Democratic Republic of the Congo",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Felix Tschisekedi",
"month_risk": "0.0006139",
"annual_risk": "0.009082",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "24",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "COD",
"country_abb": "DRC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Democratic Republic of the Congo in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Democratic Republic of the Congo is Felix Tschisekedi, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Democratic Republic of the Congo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 24 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.009082",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.990918,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Democratic Republic of the Congo",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Felix Tschisekedi",
"month_risk": "0.0006139",
"annual_risk": "0.009082",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "24",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "COD",
"country_abb": "DRC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Costa Rica in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Costa Rica is Carlos Alvarado Quesada, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Costa Rica has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 72 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003624",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996376,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Costa Rica",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Carlos Alvarado Quesada",
"month_risk": "0.0003624",
"annual_risk": "0.0043218",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "72",
"leader_years": "3.25",
"country_code": "CRI",
"country_abb": "COS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Costa Rica in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Costa Rica is Carlos Alvarado Quesada, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Costa Rica has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 72 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0043218",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9956782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Costa Rica",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Carlos Alvarado Quesada",
"month_risk": "0.0003624",
"annual_risk": "0.0043218",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "72",
"leader_years": "3.25",
"country_code": "CRI",
"country_abb": "COS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Croatia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Croatia is Plenkovic, who has been in power for 4.8 years. Croatia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002517",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997483,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Croatia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Plenkovic",
"month_risk": "0.0002517",
"annual_risk": "0.0030326",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "4.833333",
"country_code": "HRV",
"country_abb": "CRO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Croatia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Croatia is Plenkovic, who has been in power for 4.8 years. Croatia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0030326",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9969674,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Croatia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Plenkovic",
"month_risk": "0.0002517",
"annual_risk": "0.0030326",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "4.833333",
"country_code": "HRV",
"country_abb": "CRO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cuba in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cuba is Raul Castro, who has been in power for 13.5 years. Cuba has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 63 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006418",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993582,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cuba",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Raul Castro",
"month_risk": "0.0006418",
"annual_risk": "0.0116176",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "63",
"leader_years": "13.5",
"country_code": "CUB",
"country_abb": "CUB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cuba in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cuba is Raul Castro, who has been in power for 13.5 years. Cuba has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 63 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0116176",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9883824,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cuba",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Raul Castro",
"month_risk": "0.0006418",
"annual_risk": "0.0116176",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "63",
"leader_years": "13.5",
"country_code": "CUB",
"country_abb": "CUB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cyprus in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cyprus is Nikos Anastasiadis, who has been in power for 8.5 years. Cyprus has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 61 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001414",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998586,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cyprus",
"regime_type": "Foreign",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nikos Anastasiadis",
"month_risk": "0.0001414",
"annual_risk": "0.0017001",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "61",
"leader_years": "8.5",
"country_code": "CYP",
"country_abb": "CYP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Cyprus in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Cyprus is Nikos Anastasiadis, who has been in power for 8.5 years. Cyprus has a foreign regime type which has lasted for 61 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0017001",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9982999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Cyprus",
"regime_type": "Foreign",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nikos Anastasiadis",
"month_risk": "0.0001414",
"annual_risk": "0.0017001",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "61",
"leader_years": "8.5",
"country_code": "CYP",
"country_abb": "CYP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Czech Republic in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Czech Republic is Andrej Babis, who has been in power for 3.7 years. Czech Republic has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002527",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Czech Republic",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Andrej Babis",
"month_risk": "0.0002527",
"annual_risk": "0.0030606",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "3.666667",
"country_code": "CZE",
"country_abb": "CZR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Czech Republic in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Czech Republic is Andrej Babis, who has been in power for 3.7 years. Czech Republic has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0030606",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9969394,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Czech Republic",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Andrej Babis",
"month_risk": "0.0002527",
"annual_risk": "0.0030606",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "3.666667",
"country_code": "CZE",
"country_abb": "CZR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Denmark in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Denmark is Mette Frederiksen, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Denmark has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 121 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000772",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999228,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Denmark",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mette Frederiksen",
"month_risk": "0.0000772",
"annual_risk": "0.0009277",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "121",
"leader_years": "2.166667",
"country_code": "DNK",
"country_abb": "DEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Denmark in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Denmark is Mette Frederiksen, who has been in power for 2.2 years. Denmark has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 121 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009277",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9990723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Denmark",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mette Frederiksen",
"month_risk": "0.0000772",
"annual_risk": "0.0009277",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "121",
"leader_years": "2.166667",
"country_code": "DNK",
"country_abb": "DEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Djibouti in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Djibouti is Guelleh, who has been in power for 22.3 years. Djibouti has a personal regime type which has lasted for 44 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006143",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Djibouti",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Guelleh",
"month_risk": "0.0006143",
"annual_risk": "0.0171901",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.21",
"regime_years": "44",
"leader_years": "22.25",
"country_code": "DJI",
"country_abb": "DJI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Djibouti in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Djibouti is Guelleh, who has been in power for 22.3 years. Djibouti has a personal regime type which has lasted for 44 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0171901",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9828099,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Djibouti",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Guelleh",
"month_risk": "0.0006143",
"annual_risk": "0.0171901",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.21",
"regime_years": "44",
"leader_years": "22.25",
"country_code": "DJI",
"country_abb": "DJI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Dominica in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Dominica is Roosevelt Skerrit, who has been in power for 17.6 years. Dominica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003851",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996149,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Dominica",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Roosevelt Skerrit",
"month_risk": "0.0003851",
"annual_risk": "0.0045622",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "17.58333",
"country_code": "DMA",
"country_abb": "DMA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Dominica in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Dominica is Roosevelt Skerrit, who has been in power for 17.6 years. Dominica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0045622",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9954378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Dominica",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Roosevelt Skerrit",
"month_risk": "0.0003851",
"annual_risk": "0.0045622",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "17.58333",
"country_code": "DMA",
"country_abb": "DMA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Dominican Republic in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Dominican Republic is Luis Abinader, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Dominican Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004227",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Dominican Republic",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Luis Abinader",
"month_risk": "0.0004227",
"annual_risk": "0.0050992",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "1",
"country_code": "DOM",
"country_abb": "DOM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Dominican Republic in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Dominican Republic is Luis Abinader, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Dominican Republic has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0050992",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9949008,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Dominican Republic",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Luis Abinader",
"month_risk": "0.0004227",
"annual_risk": "0.0050992",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "1",
"country_code": "DOM",
"country_abb": "DOM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in East Timor in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of East Timor is Francisco Guterres, who has been in power for 4.3 years. East Timor has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006542",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993458,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "East Timor",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Francisco Guterres",
"month_risk": "0.0006542",
"annual_risk": "0.0149412",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "19",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "TLS",
"country_abb": "ETM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in East Timor in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of East Timor is Francisco Guterres, who has been in power for 4.3 years. East Timor has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0149412",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9850588,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "East Timor",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Francisco Guterres",
"month_risk": "0.0006542",
"annual_risk": "0.0149412",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "19",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "TLS",
"country_abb": "ETM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ecuador in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ecuador is Lenin Moreno, who has been in power for 4.3 years. Ecuador has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006018",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993982,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lenin Moreno",
"month_risk": "0.0006018",
"annual_risk": "0.0095171",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "ECU",
"country_abb": "ECU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ecuador in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ecuador is Lenin Moreno, who has been in power for 4.3 years. Ecuador has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0095171",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9904828999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lenin Moreno",
"month_risk": "0.0006018",
"annual_risk": "0.0095171",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "ECU",
"country_abb": "ECU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Egypt in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Egypt is al-Sisi, who has been in power for 7.2 years. Egypt has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004385",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Egypt",
"regime_type": "Military-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "al-Sisi",
"month_risk": "0.0004385",
"annual_risk": "0.0126966",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "2",
"leader_years": "7.166667",
"country_code": "EGY",
"country_abb": "EGY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Egypt in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Egypt is al-Sisi, who has been in power for 7.2 years. Egypt has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0126966",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9873034,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Egypt",
"regime_type": "Military-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "al-Sisi",
"month_risk": "0.0004385",
"annual_risk": "0.0126966",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "2",
"leader_years": "7.166667",
"country_code": "EGY",
"country_abb": "EGY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in El Salvador in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of El Salvador is Nayib Bukele, who has been in power for 2.2 years. El Salvador has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004612",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995388,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "El Salvador",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nayib Bukele",
"month_risk": "0.0004612",
"annual_risk": "0.0055411",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "2.166667",
"country_code": "SLV",
"country_abb": "SAL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in El Salvador in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of El Salvador is Nayib Bukele, who has been in power for 2.2 years. El Salvador has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0055411",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9944589,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "El Salvador",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nayib Bukele",
"month_risk": "0.0004612",
"annual_risk": "0.0055411",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "2.166667",
"country_code": "SLV",
"country_abb": "SAL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Equatorial Guinea in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Equatorial Guinea is Nguema Mbasogo, who has been in power for 42.0 years. Equatorial Guinea has a personal regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0032978",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9967022,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Equatorial Guinea",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nguema Mbasogo",
"month_risk": "0.0032978",
"annual_risk": "0.0104083",
"risk_change_percent": "0.26",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "42",
"country_code": "GNQ",
"country_abb": "EQG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Equatorial Guinea in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Equatorial Guinea is Nguema Mbasogo, who has been in power for 42.0 years. Equatorial Guinea has a personal regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0104083",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9895917,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Equatorial Guinea",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nguema Mbasogo",
"month_risk": "0.0032978",
"annual_risk": "0.0104083",
"risk_change_percent": "0.26",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "42",
"country_code": "GNQ",
"country_abb": "EQG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Eritrea in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Eritrea is Afeworki, who has been in power for 28.3 years. Eritrea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009357",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9990643,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Eritrea",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Afeworki",
"month_risk": "0.0009357",
"annual_risk": "0.0138438",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "28.25",
"country_code": "ERI",
"country_abb": "ERI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Eritrea in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Eritrea is Afeworki, who has been in power for 28.3 years. Eritrea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0138438",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9861562,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Eritrea",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Afeworki",
"month_risk": "0.0009357",
"annual_risk": "0.0138438",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "28.25",
"country_code": "ERI",
"country_abb": "ERI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Estonia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Estonia is Kaja Kallas, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Estonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001956",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Estonia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kaja Kallas",
"month_risk": "0.0001956",
"annual_risk": "0.0023358",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "EST",
"country_abb": "EST"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Estonia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Estonia is Kaja Kallas, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Estonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0023358",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9976642,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Estonia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kaja Kallas",
"month_risk": "0.0001956",
"annual_risk": "0.0023358",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "EST",
"country_abb": "EST"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ethiopia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ethiopia is Abiy Ahmed, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Ethiopia has a party regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006158",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ethiopia",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abiy Ahmed",
"month_risk": "0.0006158",
"annual_risk": "0.0094651",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "3.333333",
"country_code": "ETH",
"country_abb": "ETH"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ethiopia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ethiopia is Abiy Ahmed, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Ethiopia has a party regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0094651",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9905349,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ethiopia",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abiy Ahmed",
"month_risk": "0.0006158",
"annual_risk": "0.0094651",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "3.333333",
"country_code": "ETH",
"country_abb": "ETH"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Fiji in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Fiji is Bainimarama, who has been in power for 14.6 years. Fiji has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006119",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993881,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Fiji",
"regime_type": "Military-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bainimarama",
"month_risk": "0.0006119",
"annual_risk": "0.0139092",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "14.58333",
"country_code": "FJI",
"country_abb": "FIJ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Fiji in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Fiji is Bainimarama, who has been in power for 14.6 years. Fiji has a military-personal regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0139092",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9860908,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Fiji",
"regime_type": "Military-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bainimarama",
"month_risk": "0.0006119",
"annual_risk": "0.0139092",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "14.58333",
"country_code": "FJI",
"country_abb": "FIJ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Finland in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Finland is Sanna Marin, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Finland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001196",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998804,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Finland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sanna Marin",
"month_risk": "0.0001196",
"annual_risk": "0.0014389",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "1.666667",
"country_code": "FIN",
"country_abb": "FIN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Finland in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Finland is Sanna Marin, who has been in power for 1.7 years. Finland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0014389",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9985611,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Finland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sanna Marin",
"month_risk": "0.0001196",
"annual_risk": "0.0014389",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "1.666667",
"country_code": "FIN",
"country_abb": "FIN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in France in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of France is Macron, who has been in power for 4.3 years. France has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 63 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001475",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "France",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Macron",
"month_risk": "0.0001475",
"annual_risk": "0.0017963",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "63",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "FRA",
"country_abb": "FRN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in France in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of France is Macron, who has been in power for 4.3 years. France has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 63 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0017963",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9982037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "France",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Macron",
"month_risk": "0.0001475",
"annual_risk": "0.0017963",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "63",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "FRA",
"country_abb": "FRN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Gabon in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Gabon is Ondimba, who has been in power for 11.8 years. Gabon has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 61 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005583",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994417,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Gabon",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ondimba",
"month_risk": "0.0005583",
"annual_risk": "0.0109132",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.21",
"regime_years": "61",
"leader_years": "11.83333",
"country_code": "GAB",
"country_abb": "GAB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Gabon in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Gabon is Ondimba, who has been in power for 11.8 years. Gabon has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 61 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0109132",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9890868,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Gabon",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ondimba",
"month_risk": "0.0005583",
"annual_risk": "0.0109132",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.21",
"regime_years": "61",
"leader_years": "11.83333",
"country_code": "GAB",
"country_abb": "GAB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Gambia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Gambia is Barrow, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Gambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0011032",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9988968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Gambia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Barrow",
"month_risk": "0.0011032",
"annual_risk": "0.0322772",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.62",
"regime_years": "5",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "GMB",
"country_abb": "GAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Gambia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Gambia is Barrow, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Gambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 5 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0322772",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9677228,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Gambia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Barrow",
"month_risk": "0.0011032",
"annual_risk": "0.0322772",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.62",
"regime_years": "5",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "GMB",
"country_abb": "GAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Georgia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Georgia is Garibashvili, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Georgia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004258",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Georgia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Garibashvili",
"month_risk": "0.0004258",
"annual_risk": "0.0050795",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "3",
"leader_years": "0.5",
"country_code": "GEO",
"country_abb": "GRG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Georgia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Georgia is Garibashvili, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Georgia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0050795",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9949205,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Georgia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Garibashvili",
"month_risk": "0.0004258",
"annual_risk": "0.0050795",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "3",
"leader_years": "0.5",
"country_code": "GEO",
"country_abb": "GRG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Germany in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Germany is Merkel, who has been in power for 15.8 years. Germany has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001397",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998603,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Germany",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Merkel",
"month_risk": "0.0001397",
"annual_risk": "0.0015964",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "15.75",
"country_code": "DEU",
"country_abb": "GMY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Germany in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Germany is Merkel, who has been in power for 15.8 years. Germany has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0015964",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9984036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Germany",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Merkel",
"month_risk": "0.0001397",
"annual_risk": "0.0015964",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "15.75",
"country_code": "DEU",
"country_abb": "GMY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ghana in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ghana is Akufo-Addo, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Ghana has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004641",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995359,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ghana",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Akufo-Addo",
"month_risk": "0.0004641",
"annual_risk": "0.0071142",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.18",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "GHA",
"country_abb": "GHA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ghana in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ghana is Akufo-Addo, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Ghana has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0071142",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9928858,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ghana",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Akufo-Addo",
"month_risk": "0.0004641",
"annual_risk": "0.0071142",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.18",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "GHA",
"country_abb": "GHA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Greece in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Greece is Mitsotakis, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Greece has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 47 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002186",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Greece",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mitsotakis",
"month_risk": "0.0002186",
"annual_risk": "0.0026265",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "47",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "GRC",
"country_abb": "GRC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Greece in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Greece is Mitsotakis, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Greece has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 47 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0026265",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9973735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Greece",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mitsotakis",
"month_risk": "0.0002186",
"annual_risk": "0.0026265",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "47",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "GRC",
"country_abb": "GRC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Grenada in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Grenada is Mitchell, who has been in power for 8.5 years. Grenada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 37 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004964",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Grenada",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mitchell",
"month_risk": "0.0004964",
"annual_risk": "0.0059847",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "37",
"leader_years": "8.5",
"country_code": "GRD",
"country_abb": "GRN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Grenada in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Grenada is Mitchell, who has been in power for 8.5 years. Grenada has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 37 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0059847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9940153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Grenada",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mitchell",
"month_risk": "0.0004964",
"annual_risk": "0.0059847",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "37",
"leader_years": "8.5",
"country_code": "GRD",
"country_abb": "GRN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guatemala in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guatemala is Giammattei, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Guatemala has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 26 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004594",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995406,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guatemala",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Giammattei",
"month_risk": "0.0004594",
"annual_risk": "0.0054752",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "26",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "GTM",
"country_abb": "GUA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guatemala in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guatemala is Giammattei, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Guatemala has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 26 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0054752",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9945248,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guatemala",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Giammattei",
"month_risk": "0.0004594",
"annual_risk": "0.0054752",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "26",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "GTM",
"country_abb": "GUA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guinea is Conde, who has been in power for 10.7 years. Guinea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 11 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009807",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9990193,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guinea",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Conde",
"month_risk": "0.0009807",
"annual_risk": "0.0232404",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "11",
"leader_years": "10.66667",
"country_code": "GIN",
"country_abb": "GUI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guinea is Conde, who has been in power for 10.7 years. Guinea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 11 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0232404",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9767596,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guinea",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Conde",
"month_risk": "0.0009807",
"annual_risk": "0.0232404",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "11",
"leader_years": "10.66667",
"country_code": "GIN",
"country_abb": "GUI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea Bissau in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guinea Bissau is Embalo, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Guinea Bissau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0011318",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9988682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guinea Bissau",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Embalo",
"month_risk": "0.0011318",
"annual_risk": "0.0220968",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "1.5",
"country_code": "GNB",
"country_abb": "GNB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guinea Bissau in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guinea Bissau is Embalo, who has been in power for 1.5 years. Guinea Bissau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0220968",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9779032,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guinea Bissau",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Embalo",
"month_risk": "0.0011318",
"annual_risk": "0.0220968",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "1.5",
"country_code": "GNB",
"country_abb": "GNB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guyana in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guyana is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Guyana has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005253",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994747,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guyana",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mohamed Irfaan Ali",
"month_risk": "0.0005253",
"annual_risk": "0.0062277",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "1",
"country_code": "GUY",
"country_abb": "GUY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Guyana in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Guyana is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Guyana has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0062277",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9937723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Guyana",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mohamed Irfaan Ali",
"month_risk": "0.0005253",
"annual_risk": "0.0062277",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "1",
"country_code": "GUY",
"country_abb": "GUY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Haiti in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Haiti is Jovenel Moise, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Haiti has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 4 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007714",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9992286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Haiti",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Jovenel Moise",
"month_risk": "0.0007714",
"annual_risk": "0.018888",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "4",
"leader_years": "4.5",
"country_code": "HTI",
"country_abb": "HAI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Haiti in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Haiti is Jovenel Moise, who has been in power for 4.5 years. Haiti has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 4 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.018888",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.981112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Haiti",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Jovenel Moise",
"month_risk": "0.0007714",
"annual_risk": "0.018888",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "4",
"leader_years": "4.5",
"country_code": "HTI",
"country_abb": "HAI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Honduras in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Honduras is Juan Orlando Hernandez, who has been in power for 7.6 years. Honduras has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005273",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Honduras",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Juan Orlando Hernandez",
"month_risk": "0.0005273",
"annual_risk": "0.0096809",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "7.583333",
"country_code": "HND",
"country_abb": "HON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Honduras in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Honduras is Juan Orlando Hernandez, who has been in power for 7.6 years. Honduras has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 40 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0096809",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9903191,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Honduras",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Juan Orlando Hernandez",
"month_risk": "0.0005273",
"annual_risk": "0.0096809",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "40",
"leader_years": "7.583333",
"country_code": "HND",
"country_abb": "HON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Hungary in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Hungary is Orban, who has been in power for 11.3 years. Hungary has a party regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002408",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Hungary",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Orban",
"month_risk": "0.0002408",
"annual_risk": "0.0029227",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "11.25",
"country_code": "HUN",
"country_abb": "HUN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Hungary in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Hungary is Orban, who has been in power for 11.3 years. Hungary has a party regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0029227",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9970773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Hungary",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Orban",
"month_risk": "0.0002408",
"annual_risk": "0.0029227",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "11.25",
"country_code": "HUN",
"country_abb": "HUN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Iceland in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Iceland is Katrín Jakobsdóttir, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Iceland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 77 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001311",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998689,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Iceland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Katrín Jakobsdóttir",
"month_risk": "0.0001311",
"annual_risk": "0.002603",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "77",
"leader_years": "3.75",
"country_code": "ISL",
"country_abb": "ICE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Iceland in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Iceland is Katrín Jakobsdóttir, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Iceland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 77 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.002603",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.997397,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Iceland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Katrín Jakobsdóttir",
"month_risk": "0.0001311",
"annual_risk": "0.002603",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "77",
"leader_years": "3.75",
"country_code": "ISL",
"country_abb": "ICE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in India in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of India is Narendra Modi, who has been in power for 7.3 years. India has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 74 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001443",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998557,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "India",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Narendra Modi",
"month_risk": "0.0001443",
"annual_risk": "0.0040159",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "74",
"leader_years": "7.25",
"country_code": "IND",
"country_abb": "IND"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in India in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of India is Narendra Modi, who has been in power for 7.3 years. India has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 74 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0040159",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9959841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "India",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Narendra Modi",
"month_risk": "0.0001443",
"annual_risk": "0.0040159",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "74",
"leader_years": "7.25",
"country_code": "IND",
"country_abb": "IND"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Indonesia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Indonesia is Joko Widodo, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Indonesia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002608",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997392,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Indonesia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Joko Widodo",
"month_risk": "0.0002608",
"annual_risk": "0.0043173",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "22",
"leader_years": "6.833333",
"country_code": "IDN",
"country_abb": "INS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Indonesia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Indonesia is Joko Widodo, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Indonesia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0043173",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9956827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Indonesia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Joko Widodo",
"month_risk": "0.0002608",
"annual_risk": "0.0043173",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "22",
"leader_years": "6.833333",
"country_code": "IDN",
"country_abb": "INS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Iran in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Iran is Rouhani, who has been in power for 8.0 years. Iran has a party regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001909",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Iran",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rouhani",
"month_risk": "0.0001909",
"annual_risk": "0.0052757",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.17",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "8",
"country_code": "IRN",
"country_abb": "IRN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Iran in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Iran is Rouhani, who has been in power for 8.0 years. Iran has a party regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0052757",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9947243,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Iran",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rouhani",
"month_risk": "0.0001909",
"annual_risk": "0.0052757",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.17",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "8",
"country_code": "IRN",
"country_abb": "IRN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Iraq in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Iraq is Al-Kadhimi, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Iraq has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0019544",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9980456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Iraq",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Al-Kadhimi",
"month_risk": "0.0019544",
"annual_risk": "0.0094571",
"risk_change_percent": "0.12",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "1.25",
"country_code": "IRQ",
"country_abb": "IRQ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Iraq in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Iraq is Al-Kadhimi, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Iraq has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0094571",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9905429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Iraq",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Al-Kadhimi",
"month_risk": "0.0019544",
"annual_risk": "0.0094571",
"risk_change_percent": "0.12",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "1.25",
"country_code": "IRQ",
"country_abb": "IRQ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ireland in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ireland is Martin, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Ireland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 100 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000053",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999947,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ireland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Martin",
"month_risk": "0.000053",
"annual_risk": "0.0006372",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "100",
"leader_years": "1.166667",
"country_code": "IRL",
"country_abb": "IRE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ireland in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ireland is Martin, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Ireland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 100 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006372",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993628,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ireland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Martin",
"month_risk": "0.000053",
"annual_risk": "0.0006372",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "100",
"leader_years": "1.166667",
"country_code": "IRL",
"country_abb": "IRE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Israel in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Israel is Netanyahu, who has been in power for 12.4 years. Israel has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 73 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001956",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Israel",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Netanyahu",
"month_risk": "0.0001956",
"annual_risk": "0.0041474",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "73",
"leader_years": "12.41667",
"country_code": "ISR",
"country_abb": "ISR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Israel in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Israel is Netanyahu, who has been in power for 12.4 years. Israel has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 73 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0041474",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9958526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Israel",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Netanyahu",
"month_risk": "0.0001956",
"annual_risk": "0.0041474",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "73",
"leader_years": "12.41667",
"country_code": "ISR",
"country_abb": "ISR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Italy in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Italy is Draghi, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Italy has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 76 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001916",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Italy",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Draghi",
"month_risk": "0.0001916",
"annual_risk": "0.0023111",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "76",
"leader_years": "0.5",
"country_code": "ITA",
"country_abb": "ITA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Italy in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Italy is Draghi, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Italy has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 76 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0023111",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9976889,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Italy",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Draghi",
"month_risk": "0.0001916",
"annual_risk": "0.0023111",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "76",
"leader_years": "0.5",
"country_code": "ITA",
"country_abb": "ITA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ivory Coast in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ivory Coast is Ouattara, who has been in power for 10.3 years. Ivory Coast has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006464",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993536,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ivory Coast",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ouattara",
"month_risk": "0.0006464",
"annual_risk": "0.0189674",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "10.33333",
"country_code": "CIV",
"country_abb": "CDI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ivory Coast in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ivory Coast is Ouattara, who has been in power for 10.3 years. Ivory Coast has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0189674",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9810326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ivory Coast",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ouattara",
"month_risk": "0.0006464",
"annual_risk": "0.0189674",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "10.33333",
"country_code": "CIV",
"country_abb": "CDI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Jamaica in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Jamaica is Holness, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Jamaica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003547",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Jamaica",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Holness",
"month_risk": "0.0003547",
"annual_risk": "0.0042077",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "JAM",
"country_abb": "JAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Jamaica in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Jamaica is Holness, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Jamaica has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0042077",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9957923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Jamaica",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Holness",
"month_risk": "0.0003547",
"annual_risk": "0.0042077",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "JAM",
"country_abb": "JAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Japan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Japan is Yoshihide Suga, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Japan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 70 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001097",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998903,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Japan",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Yoshihide Suga",
"month_risk": "0.0001097",
"annual_risk": "0.0012776",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "70",
"leader_years": "0.9166667",
"country_code": "JPN",
"country_abb": "JPN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Japan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Japan is Yoshihide Suga, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Japan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 70 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0012776",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9987224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Japan",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Yoshihide Suga",
"month_risk": "0.0001097",
"annual_risk": "0.0012776",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "70",
"leader_years": "0.9166667",
"country_code": "JPN",
"country_abb": "JPN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Jordan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Jordan is Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi, who has been in power for 22.5 years. Jordan has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 75 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004965",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Jordan",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi",
"month_risk": "0.0004965",
"annual_risk": "0.0057681",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "75",
"leader_years": "22.5",
"country_code": "JOR",
"country_abb": "JOR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Jordan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Jordan is Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi, who has been in power for 22.5 years. Jordan has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 75 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0057681",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9942319,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Jordan",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abdullah Ibn Hussein El-Hashimi",
"month_risk": "0.0004965",
"annual_risk": "0.0057681",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "75",
"leader_years": "22.5",
"country_code": "JOR",
"country_abb": "JOR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kazakhstan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kazakhstan is Tokayev, who has been in power for 2.4 years. Kazakhstan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002666",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kazakhstan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tokayev",
"month_risk": "0.0002666",
"annual_risk": "0.0045533",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.416667",
"country_code": "KAZ",
"country_abb": "KZK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kazakhstan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kazakhstan is Tokayev, who has been in power for 2.4 years. Kazakhstan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0045533",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9954467,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kazakhstan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tokayev",
"month_risk": "0.0002666",
"annual_risk": "0.0045533",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.416667",
"country_code": "KAZ",
"country_abb": "KZK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kenya in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kenya is Kenyatta, who has been in power for 8.3 years. Kenya has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007444",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9992556,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kenya",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kenyatta",
"month_risk": "0.0007444",
"annual_risk": "0.0114108",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.27",
"regime_years": "19",
"leader_years": "8.333333",
"country_code": "KEN",
"country_abb": "KEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kenya in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kenya is Kenyatta, who has been in power for 8.3 years. Kenya has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 19 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0114108",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9885892,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kenya",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kenyatta",
"month_risk": "0.0007444",
"annual_risk": "0.0114108",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.27",
"regime_years": "19",
"leader_years": "8.333333",
"country_code": "KEN",
"country_abb": "KEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kiribati in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kiribati is Mamau, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Kiribati has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000394",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999606,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kiribati",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mamau",
"month_risk": "0.000394",
"annual_risk": "0.0046133",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "KIR",
"country_abb": "KIR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kiribati in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kiribati is Mamau, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Kiribati has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0046133",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9953867,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kiribati",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mamau",
"month_risk": "0.000394",
"annual_risk": "0.0046133",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "KIR",
"country_abb": "KIR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in North Korea in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of North Korea is Kim Jong Un, who has been in power for 9.7 years. North Korea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 73 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0021244",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9978756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "North Korea",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kim Jong Un",
"month_risk": "0.0021244",
"annual_risk": "0.0066428",
"risk_change_percent": "0.17",
"regime_years": "73",
"leader_years": "9.666667",
"country_code": "PRK",
"country_abb": "PRK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in North Korea in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of North Korea is Kim Jong Un, who has been in power for 9.7 years. North Korea has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 73 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0066428",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9933572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "North Korea",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kim Jong Un",
"month_risk": "0.0021244",
"annual_risk": "0.0066428",
"risk_change_percent": "0.17",
"regime_years": "73",
"leader_years": "9.666667",
"country_code": "PRK",
"country_abb": "PRK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in South Korea in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of South Korea is Moon Jae-in, who has been in power for 4.3 years. South Korea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 34 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001773",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998227,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "South Korea",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Moon Jae-in",
"month_risk": "0.0001773",
"annual_risk": "0.0034127",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "34",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "KOR",
"country_abb": "ROK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in South Korea in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of South Korea is Moon Jae-in, who has been in power for 4.3 years. South Korea has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 34 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0034127",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9965873,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "South Korea",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Moon Jae-in",
"month_risk": "0.0001773",
"annual_risk": "0.0034127",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "34",
"leader_years": "4.25",
"country_code": "KOR",
"country_abb": "ROK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kosovo in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kosovo is Kurti, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Kosovo has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005703",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kosovo",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kurti",
"month_risk": "0.0005703",
"annual_risk": "0.0124885",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "0.4166667",
"country_code": "UNK",
"country_abb": "KOS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kosovo in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kosovo is Kurti, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Kosovo has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0124885",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9875115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kosovo",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kurti",
"month_risk": "0.0005703",
"annual_risk": "0.0124885",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "0.4166667",
"country_code": "UNK",
"country_abb": "KOS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kuwait in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kuwait is Nawaf Al-Sabah, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Kuwait has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 72 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003077",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kuwait",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nawaf Al-Sabah",
"month_risk": "0.0003077",
"annual_risk": "0.0050178",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "72",
"leader_years": "1.083333",
"country_code": "KWT",
"country_abb": "KUW"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kuwait in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kuwait is Nawaf Al-Sabah, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Kuwait has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 72 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0050178",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9949822,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kuwait",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nawaf Al-Sabah",
"month_risk": "0.0003077",
"annual_risk": "0.0050178",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "72",
"leader_years": "1.083333",
"country_code": "KWT",
"country_abb": "KUW"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kyrgyzstan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kyrgyzstan is Sadyr Japarov, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Kyrgyzstan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007749",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9992251,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kyrgyzstan",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sadyr Japarov",
"month_risk": "0.0007749",
"annual_risk": "0.0152904",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "KGZ",
"country_abb": "KYR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Kyrgyzstan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Kyrgyzstan is Sadyr Japarov, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Kyrgyzstan has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0152904",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9847096,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Kyrgyzstan",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sadyr Japarov",
"month_risk": "0.0007749",
"annual_risk": "0.0152904",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "KGZ",
"country_abb": "KYR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Laos in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Laos is Sisoulith, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Laos has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002702",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997298,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Laos",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sisoulith",
"month_risk": "0.0002702",
"annual_risk": "0.0056959",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "LAO",
"country_abb": "LAO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Laos in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Laos is Sisoulith, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Laos has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0056959",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9943041,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Laos",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sisoulith",
"month_risk": "0.0002702",
"annual_risk": "0.0056959",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "LAO",
"country_abb": "LAO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Latvia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Latvia is Karins, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Latvia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000238",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999762,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Latvia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Karins",
"month_risk": "0.000238",
"annual_risk": "0.0028336",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "LVA",
"country_abb": "LAT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Latvia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Latvia is Karins, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Latvia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0028336",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9971664,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Latvia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Karins",
"month_risk": "0.000238",
"annual_risk": "0.0028336",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "LVA",
"country_abb": "LAT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Lebanon in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Lebanon is Saad Hariri, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Lebanon has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 16 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0033791",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9966209,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Lebanon",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Saad Hariri",
"month_risk": "0.0033791",
"annual_risk": "0.0223616",
"risk_change_percent": "0.26",
"regime_years": "16",
"leader_years": "0.8333333",
"country_code": "LBN",
"country_abb": "LEB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Lebanon in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Lebanon is Saad Hariri, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Lebanon has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 16 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0223616",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9776384,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Lebanon",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Saad Hariri",
"month_risk": "0.0033791",
"annual_risk": "0.0223616",
"risk_change_percent": "0.26",
"regime_years": "16",
"leader_years": "0.8333333",
"country_code": "LBN",
"country_abb": "LEB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Lesotho in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Lesotho is Majoro, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Lesotho has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0011795",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9988205,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Lesotho",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Majoro",
"month_risk": "0.0011795",
"annual_risk": "0.0173161",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "1.25",
"country_code": "LSO",
"country_abb": "LES"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Lesotho in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Lesotho is Majoro, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Lesotho has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0173161",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9826839,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Lesotho",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Majoro",
"month_risk": "0.0011795",
"annual_risk": "0.0173161",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "1.25",
"country_code": "LSO",
"country_abb": "LES"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Liberia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Liberia is Weah, who has been in power for 3.6 years. Liberia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 16 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0012809",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9987191,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Liberia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Weah",
"month_risk": "0.0012809",
"annual_risk": "0.0179825",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "16",
"leader_years": "3.583333",
"country_code": "LBR",
"country_abb": "LBR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Liberia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Liberia is Weah, who has been in power for 3.6 years. Liberia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 16 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0179825",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9820175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Liberia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Weah",
"month_risk": "0.0012809",
"annual_risk": "0.0179825",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "16",
"leader_years": "3.583333",
"country_code": "LBR",
"country_abb": "LBR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Libya in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Libya is Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Libya has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 0 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0030682",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9969318,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Libya",
"regime_type": "Civilian Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh",
"month_risk": "0.0030682",
"annual_risk": "0.0148333",
"risk_change_percent": "0.24",
"regime_years": "0",
"leader_years": "0.4166667",
"country_code": "LBY",
"country_abb": "LIB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Libya in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Libya is Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Libya has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 0 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0148333",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9851667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Libya",
"regime_type": "Civilian Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh",
"month_risk": "0.0030682",
"annual_risk": "0.0148333",
"risk_change_percent": "0.24",
"regime_years": "0",
"leader_years": "0.4166667",
"country_code": "LBY",
"country_abb": "LIB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Liechtenstein in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Liechtenstein is Hans-Adam II, who has been in power for 31.8 years. Liechtenstein has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 100 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003498",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Liechtenstein",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hans-Adam II",
"month_risk": "0.0003498",
"annual_risk": "0.0041628",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "100",
"leader_years": "31.75",
"country_code": "LIE",
"country_abb": "LIE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Liechtenstein in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Liechtenstein is Hans-Adam II, who has been in power for 31.8 years. Liechtenstein has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 100 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0041628",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9958372,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Liechtenstein",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Hans-Adam II",
"month_risk": "0.0003498",
"annual_risk": "0.0041628",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "100",
"leader_years": "31.75",
"country_code": "LIE",
"country_abb": "LIE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Lithuania in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Lithuania is Nauseda, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Lithuania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002322",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nauseda",
"month_risk": "0.0002322",
"annual_risk": "0.0027763",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "LTU",
"country_abb": "LIT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Lithuania in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Lithuania is Nauseda, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Lithuania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0027763",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9972237,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nauseda",
"month_risk": "0.0002322",
"annual_risk": "0.0027763",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "LTU",
"country_abb": "LIT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Luxembourg in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Luxembourg is Bettel, who has been in power for 7.7 years. Luxembourg has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 151 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000407",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999593,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bettel",
"month_risk": "0.0000407",
"annual_risk": "0.0004923",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "151",
"leader_years": "7.666667",
"country_code": "LUX",
"country_abb": "LUX"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Luxembourg in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Luxembourg is Bettel, who has been in power for 7.7 years. Luxembourg has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 151 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004923",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Luxembourg",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bettel",
"month_risk": "0.0000407",
"annual_risk": "0.0004923",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "151",
"leader_years": "7.666667",
"country_code": "LUX",
"country_abb": "LUX"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Macedonia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Macedonia is Zaev, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Macedonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000433",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Macedonia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Zaev",
"month_risk": "0.000433",
"annual_risk": "0.0053415",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "1",
"country_code": "MKD",
"country_abb": "MAC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Macedonia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Macedonia is Zaev, who has been in power for 1.0 years. Macedonia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0053415",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9946585,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Macedonia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Zaev",
"month_risk": "0.000433",
"annual_risk": "0.0053415",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "1",
"country_code": "MKD",
"country_abb": "MAC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Madagascar in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Madagascar is Rajoelina, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Madagascar has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 8 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009083",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9990917,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Madagascar",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rajoelina",
"month_risk": "0.0009083",
"annual_risk": "0.0251526",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "8",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "MDG",
"country_abb": "MAG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Madagascar in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Madagascar is Rajoelina, who has been in power for 2.6 years. Madagascar has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 8 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0251526",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9748474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Madagascar",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rajoelina",
"month_risk": "0.0009083",
"annual_risk": "0.0251526",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "8",
"leader_years": "2.583333",
"country_code": "MDG",
"country_abb": "MAG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Malawi in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Malawi is Chakewera, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Malawi has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0008107",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9991893,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Malawi",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Chakewera",
"month_risk": "0.0008107",
"annual_risk": "0.0117589",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "1.166667",
"country_code": "MWI",
"country_abb": "MAW"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Malawi in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Malawi is Chakewera, who has been in power for 1.2 years. Malawi has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0117589",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9882411,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Malawi",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Chakewera",
"month_risk": "0.0008107",
"annual_risk": "0.0117589",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "1.166667",
"country_code": "MWI",
"country_abb": "MAW"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Malaysia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Malaysia is Muhyiddin Yassin, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Malaysia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003538",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996462,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Malaysia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Muhyiddin Yassin",
"month_risk": "0.0003538",
"annual_risk": "0.0056891",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "3",
"leader_years": "1.416667",
"country_code": "MYS",
"country_abb": "MAL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Malaysia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Malaysia is Muhyiddin Yassin, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Malaysia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 3 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0056891",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9943109,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Malaysia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Muhyiddin Yassin",
"month_risk": "0.0003538",
"annual_risk": "0.0056891",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "3",
"leader_years": "1.416667",
"country_code": "MYS",
"country_abb": "MAL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Maldives in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Maldives is Ibrahim Solih, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Maldives has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003444",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996556,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Maldives",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ibrahim Solih",
"month_risk": "0.0003444",
"annual_risk": "0.0102915",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "2.75",
"country_code": "MDV",
"country_abb": "MAD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Maldives in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Maldives is Ibrahim Solih, who has been in power for 2.8 years. Maldives has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0102915",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9897085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Maldives",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ibrahim Solih",
"month_risk": "0.0003444",
"annual_risk": "0.0102915",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "2.75",
"country_code": "MDV",
"country_abb": "MAD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mali in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mali is Ba N'Daou, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Mali has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0047366",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9952634,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mali",
"regime_type": "Military Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ba N'Daou",
"month_risk": "0.0047366",
"annual_risk": "0.0507303",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.03",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "0.9166667",
"country_code": "MLI",
"country_abb": "MLI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mali in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mali is Ba N'Daou, who has been in power for 0.9 years. Mali has a military provisional regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0507303",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9492697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mali",
"regime_type": "Military Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ba N'Daou",
"month_risk": "0.0047366",
"annual_risk": "0.0507303",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.03",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "0.9166667",
"country_code": "MLI",
"country_abb": "MLI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Malta in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Malta is Abela, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Malta has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002253",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997747,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Malta",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abela",
"month_risk": "0.0002253",
"annual_risk": "0.002746",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "MLT",
"country_abb": "MLT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Malta in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Malta is Abela, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Malta has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.002746",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.997254,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Malta",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abela",
"month_risk": "0.0002253",
"annual_risk": "0.002746",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "MLT",
"country_abb": "MLT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Marshall Islands in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Marshall Islands is Kabua, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Marshall Islands has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003981",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Marshall Islands",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kabua",
"month_risk": "0.0003981",
"annual_risk": "0.0046603",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "MHL",
"country_abb": "MSI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Marshall Islands in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Marshall Islands is Kabua, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Marshall Islands has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0046603",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9953397,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Marshall Islands",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kabua",
"month_risk": "0.0003981",
"annual_risk": "0.0046603",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "MHL",
"country_abb": "MSI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritania in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mauritania is Ould Ghazouani, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Mauritania has a personal regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0008721",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9991279,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mauritania",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ould Ghazouani",
"month_risk": "0.0008721",
"annual_risk": "0.0100482",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "2",
"country_code": "MRT",
"country_abb": "MAA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritania in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mauritania is Ould Ghazouani, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Mauritania has a personal regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0100482",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9899518,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mauritania",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ould Ghazouani",
"month_risk": "0.0008721",
"annual_risk": "0.0100482",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "2",
"country_code": "MRT",
"country_abb": "MAA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritius in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mauritius is Pravind Jugnauth, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Mauritius has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 53 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005477",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mauritius",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Pravind Jugnauth",
"month_risk": "0.0005477",
"annual_risk": "0.0063521",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "53",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "MUS",
"country_abb": "MAS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mauritius in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mauritius is Pravind Jugnauth, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Mauritius has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 53 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0063521",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9936479,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mauritius",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Pravind Jugnauth",
"month_risk": "0.0005477",
"annual_risk": "0.0063521",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "53",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "MUS",
"country_abb": "MAS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mexico in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mexico is Lopez Obrador, who has been in power for 2.7 years. Mexico has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003658",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996342,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mexico",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lopez Obrador",
"month_risk": "0.0003658",
"annual_risk": "0.0043742",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "2.666667",
"country_code": "MEX",
"country_abb": "MEX"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mexico in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mexico is Lopez Obrador, who has been in power for 2.7 years. Mexico has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0043742",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9956258,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mexico",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lopez Obrador",
"month_risk": "0.0003658",
"annual_risk": "0.0043742",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "2.666667",
"country_code": "MEX",
"country_abb": "MEX"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Micronesia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Micronesia is Panuelo, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Micronesia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000341",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999659,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Micronesia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Panuelo",
"month_risk": "0.000341",
"annual_risk": "0.0046884",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "FSM",
"country_abb": "FSM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Micronesia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Micronesia is Panuelo, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Micronesia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0046884",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9953116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Micronesia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Panuelo",
"month_risk": "0.000341",
"annual_risk": "0.0046884",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "FSM",
"country_abb": "FSM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Moldova in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Moldova is Aureliu Ciocoi, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Moldova has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009768",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9990232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Moldova",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Aureliu Ciocoi",
"month_risk": "0.0009768",
"annual_risk": "0.0060593",
"risk_change_percent": "0.03",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "MDA",
"country_abb": "MLD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Moldova in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Moldova is Aureliu Ciocoi, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Moldova has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0060593",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9939407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Moldova",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Aureliu Ciocoi",
"month_risk": "0.0009768",
"annual_risk": "0.0060593",
"risk_change_percent": "0.03",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "MDA",
"country_abb": "MLD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Monaco in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Monaco is Albert, who has been in power for 16.3 years. Monaco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 111 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000301",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999699,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Monaco",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Albert",
"month_risk": "0.000301",
"annual_risk": "0.0035827",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "111",
"leader_years": "16.33333",
"country_code": "MCO",
"country_abb": "MNC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Monaco in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Monaco is Albert, who has been in power for 16.3 years. Monaco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 111 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0035827",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9964173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Monaco",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Albert",
"month_risk": "0.000301",
"annual_risk": "0.0035827",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "111",
"leader_years": "16.33333",
"country_code": "MCO",
"country_abb": "MNC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mongolia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mongolia is Khaltmaagiin Battulga, who has been in power for 4.1 years. Mongolia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004393",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995607,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mongolia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Khaltmaagiin Battulga",
"month_risk": "0.0004393",
"annual_risk": "0.0079934",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.26",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "4.083333",
"country_code": "MNG",
"country_abb": "MON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mongolia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mongolia is Khaltmaagiin Battulga, who has been in power for 4.1 years. Mongolia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0079934",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9920066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mongolia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Khaltmaagiin Battulga",
"month_risk": "0.0004393",
"annual_risk": "0.0079934",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.26",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "4.083333",
"country_code": "MNG",
"country_abb": "MON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Montenegro in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Montenegro is Zdravko Krivokapic, who has been in power for 0.7 years. Montenegro has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002622",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Montenegro",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Zdravko Krivokapic",
"month_risk": "0.0002622",
"annual_risk": "0.0031669",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "0.6666667",
"country_code": "MNE",
"country_abb": "MNG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Montenegro in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Montenegro is Zdravko Krivokapic, who has been in power for 0.7 years. Montenegro has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0031669",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9968331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Montenegro",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Zdravko Krivokapic",
"month_risk": "0.0002622",
"annual_risk": "0.0031669",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "0.6666667",
"country_code": "MNE",
"country_abb": "MNG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Morocco in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Morocco is Muhammad VI, who has been in power for 22.1 years. Morocco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 65 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003932",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996068,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Morocco",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Muhammad VI",
"month_risk": "0.0003932",
"annual_risk": "0.0061645",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "65",
"leader_years": "22.08333",
"country_code": "MAR",
"country_abb": "MOR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Morocco in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Morocco is Muhammad VI, who has been in power for 22.1 years. Morocco has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 65 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0061645",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9938355,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Morocco",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Muhammad VI",
"month_risk": "0.0003932",
"annual_risk": "0.0061645",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "65",
"leader_years": "22.08333",
"country_code": "MAR",
"country_abb": "MOR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mozambique in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mozambique is Nyussi, who has been in power for 6.6 years. Mozambique has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000493",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mozambique",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nyussi",
"month_risk": "0.000493",
"annual_risk": "0.0093809",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.18",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "6.583333",
"country_code": "MOZ",
"country_abb": "MZM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Mozambique in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Mozambique is Nyussi, who has been in power for 6.6 years. Mozambique has a party regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0093809",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9906191,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Mozambique",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nyussi",
"month_risk": "0.000493",
"annual_risk": "0.0093809",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.18",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "6.583333",
"country_code": "MOZ",
"country_abb": "MZM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Myanmar in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Myanmar is Min Aung Hlaing, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Myanmar has a military regime type which has lasted for 0 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0040838",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9959162,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Myanmar",
"regime_type": "Military",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Min Aung Hlaing",
"month_risk": "0.0040838",
"annual_risk": "0.0598028",
"risk_change_percent": "0.01",
"regime_years": "0",
"leader_years": "0.5",
"country_code": "MMR",
"country_abb": "MYA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Myanmar in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Myanmar is Min Aung Hlaing, who has been in power for 0.5 years. Myanmar has a military regime type which has lasted for 0 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0598028",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9401972,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Myanmar",
"regime_type": "Military",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Min Aung Hlaing",
"month_risk": "0.0040838",
"annual_risk": "0.0598028",
"risk_change_percent": "0.01",
"regime_years": "0",
"leader_years": "0.5",
"country_code": "MMR",
"country_abb": "MYA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Namibia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Namibia is Geingob, who has been in power for 6.4 years. Namibia has a party regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005001",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Namibia",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Geingob",
"month_risk": "0.0005001",
"annual_risk": "0.0057989",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "6.416667",
"country_code": "NAM",
"country_abb": "NAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Namibia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Namibia is Geingob, who has been in power for 6.4 years. Namibia has a party regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0057989",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9942011,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Namibia",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Geingob",
"month_risk": "0.0005001",
"annual_risk": "0.0057989",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "6.416667",
"country_code": "NAM",
"country_abb": "NAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nauru in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nauru is Aingimea, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Nauru has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 54 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004656",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995344,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nauru",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Aingimea",
"month_risk": "0.0004656",
"annual_risk": "0.0054482",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "54",
"leader_years": "2",
"country_code": "NRU",
"country_abb": "NAU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nauru in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nauru is Aingimea, who has been in power for 2.0 years. Nauru has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 54 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0054482",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9945518,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nauru",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Aingimea",
"month_risk": "0.0004656",
"annual_risk": "0.0054482",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "54",
"leader_years": "2",
"country_code": "NRU",
"country_abb": "NAU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nepal in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nepal is Oli, who has been in power for 3.5 years. Nepal has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004927",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nepal",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Oli",
"month_risk": "0.0004927",
"annual_risk": "0.0140823",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "3.5",
"country_code": "NPL",
"country_abb": "NEP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nepal in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nepal is Oli, who has been in power for 3.5 years. Nepal has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 15 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0140823",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9859177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nepal",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Oli",
"month_risk": "0.0004927",
"annual_risk": "0.0140823",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "15",
"leader_years": "3.5",
"country_code": "NPL",
"country_abb": "NEP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Netherlands in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Netherlands is M. Rutte, who has been in power for 10.8 years. Netherlands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 151 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000893",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "M. Rutte",
"month_risk": "0.0000893",
"annual_risk": "0.0010771",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "151",
"leader_years": "10.83333",
"country_code": "NLD",
"country_abb": "NTH"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Netherlands in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Netherlands is M. Rutte, who has been in power for 10.8 years. Netherlands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 151 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0010771",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9989229,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Netherlands",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "M. Rutte",
"month_risk": "0.0000893",
"annual_risk": "0.0010771",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "151",
"leader_years": "10.83333",
"country_code": "NLD",
"country_abb": "NTH"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in New Zealand in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of New Zealand is Jacinda Ardern, who has been in power for 3.8 years. New Zealand has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 114 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001104",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998896,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "New Zealand",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Jacinda Ardern",
"month_risk": "0.0001104",
"annual_risk": "0.0041707",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "114",
"leader_years": "3.833333",
"country_code": "NZL",
"country_abb": "NEW"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in New Zealand in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of New Zealand is Jacinda Ardern, who has been in power for 3.8 years. New Zealand has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 114 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0041707",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9958293,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "New Zealand",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Jacinda Ardern",
"month_risk": "0.0001104",
"annual_risk": "0.0041707",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "114",
"leader_years": "3.833333",
"country_code": "NZL",
"country_abb": "NEW"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nicaragua in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nicaragua is Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 14.6 years. Nicaragua has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007795",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9992205,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nicaragua",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Daniel Ortega",
"month_risk": "0.0007795",
"annual_risk": "0.0144801",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "14.58333",
"country_code": "NIC",
"country_abb": "NIC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nicaragua in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nicaragua is Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 14.6 years. Nicaragua has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 1 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0144801",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9855199,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nicaragua",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Daniel Ortega",
"month_risk": "0.0007795",
"annual_risk": "0.0144801",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "1",
"leader_years": "14.58333",
"country_code": "NIC",
"country_abb": "NIC"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Niger in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Niger is Bazoum, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Niger has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0039274",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9960726,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Niger",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bazoum",
"month_risk": "0.0039274",
"annual_risk": "0.0430077",
"risk_change_percent": "0.01",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "NER",
"country_abb": "NIR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Niger in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Niger is Bazoum, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Niger has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0430077",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9569923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Niger",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bazoum",
"month_risk": "0.0039274",
"annual_risk": "0.0430077",
"risk_change_percent": "0.01",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "NER",
"country_abb": "NIR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nigeria in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nigeria is Buhari, who has been in power for 6.3 years. Nigeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0021134",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9978866,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nigeria",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Buhari",
"month_risk": "0.0021134",
"annual_risk": "0.0081127",
"risk_change_percent": "0.17",
"regime_years": "22",
"leader_years": "6.25",
"country_code": "NGA",
"country_abb": "NIG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Nigeria in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Nigeria is Buhari, who has been in power for 6.3 years. Nigeria has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 22 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0081127",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9918873,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Nigeria",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Buhari",
"month_risk": "0.0021134",
"annual_risk": "0.0081127",
"risk_change_percent": "0.17",
"regime_years": "22",
"leader_years": "6.25",
"country_code": "NGA",
"country_abb": "NIG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Norway in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Norway is Solberg, who has been in power for 7.8 years. Norway has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 137 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000667",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Norway",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Solberg",
"month_risk": "0.0000667",
"annual_risk": "0.0007708",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "137",
"leader_years": "7.833333",
"country_code": "NOR",
"country_abb": "NOR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Norway in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Norway is Solberg, who has been in power for 7.8 years. Norway has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 137 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007708",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9992292,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Norway",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Solberg",
"month_risk": "0.0000667",
"annual_risk": "0.0007708",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "137",
"leader_years": "7.833333",
"country_code": "NOR",
"country_abb": "NOR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Oman in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Oman is Haitham ibn Tariq, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Oman has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 280 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003068",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996932,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Oman",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Haitham ibn Tariq",
"month_risk": "0.0003068",
"annual_risk": "0.0035864",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "280",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "OMN",
"country_abb": "OMA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Oman in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Oman is Haitham ibn Tariq, who has been in power for 1.6 years. Oman has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 280 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0035864",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9964136,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Oman",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Haitham ibn Tariq",
"month_risk": "0.0003068",
"annual_risk": "0.0035864",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "280",
"leader_years": "1.583333",
"country_code": "OMN",
"country_abb": "OMA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Pakistan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Pakistan is Imran Khan, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Pakistan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.00033",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99967,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Pakistan",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Imran Khan",
"month_risk": "0.00033",
"annual_risk": "0.0109448",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "PAK",
"country_abb": "PAK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Pakistan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Pakistan is Imran Khan, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Pakistan has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 13 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0109448",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9890552,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Pakistan",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Imran Khan",
"month_risk": "0.00033",
"annual_risk": "0.0109448",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "13",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "PAK",
"country_abb": "PAK"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Palau in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Palau is Surangel Whipps Jr., who has been in power for 0.6 years. Palau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 41 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003088",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996912,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Palau",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Surangel Whipps Jr.",
"month_risk": "0.0003088",
"annual_risk": "0.0062227",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "41",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "PLW",
"country_abb": "PAL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Palau in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Palau is Surangel Whipps Jr., who has been in power for 0.6 years. Palau has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 41 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0062227",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9937773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Palau",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Surangel Whipps Jr.",
"month_risk": "0.0003088",
"annual_risk": "0.0062227",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "41",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "PLW",
"country_abb": "PAL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Panama in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Panama is Laurentino Cortizo, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Panama has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003675",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996325,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Panama",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Laurentino Cortizo",
"month_risk": "0.0003675",
"annual_risk": "0.0043933",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "PAN",
"country_abb": "PAN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Panama in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Panama is Laurentino Cortizo, who has been in power for 2.1 years. Panama has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0043933",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9956067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Panama",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Laurentino Cortizo",
"month_risk": "0.0003675",
"annual_risk": "0.0043933",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "PAN",
"country_abb": "PAN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Papua New Guinea in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Papua New Guinea is James Marape, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Papua New Guinea has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006645",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993355,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Papua New Guinea",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "James Marape",
"month_risk": "0.0006645",
"annual_risk": "0.0129104",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "PNG",
"country_abb": "PNG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Papua New Guinea in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Papua New Guinea is James Marape, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Papua New Guinea has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 46 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0129104",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9870896,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Papua New Guinea",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "James Marape",
"month_risk": "0.0006645",
"annual_risk": "0.0129104",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "46",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "PNG",
"country_abb": "PNG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Paraguay in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Paraguay is Benitez, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Paraguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005218",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Benitez",
"month_risk": "0.0005218",
"annual_risk": "0.0062661",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "PRY",
"country_abb": "PAR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Paraguay in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Paraguay is Benitez, who has been in power for 3.0 years. Paraguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0062661",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9937339,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Paraguay",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Benitez",
"month_risk": "0.0005218",
"annual_risk": "0.0062661",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "3",
"country_code": "PRY",
"country_abb": "PAR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Peru in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Peru is Francisco Sagasti, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Peru has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 20 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003379",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996621,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Peru",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Francisco Sagasti",
"month_risk": "0.0003379",
"annual_risk": "0.0051335",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.02",
"regime_years": "20",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "PER",
"country_abb": "PER"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Peru in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Peru is Francisco Sagasti, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Peru has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 20 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0051335",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9948665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Peru",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Francisco Sagasti",
"month_risk": "0.0003379",
"annual_risk": "0.0051335",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.02",
"regime_years": "20",
"leader_years": "0.75",
"country_code": "PER",
"country_abb": "PER"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Philippines in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Philippines is Rodrigo Duterte, who has been in power for 5.2 years. Philippines has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 35 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002931",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997069,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Philippines",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rodrigo Duterte",
"month_risk": "0.0002931",
"annual_risk": "0.0051535",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "35",
"leader_years": "5.166667",
"country_code": "PHL",
"country_abb": "PHI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Philippines in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Philippines is Rodrigo Duterte, who has been in power for 5.2 years. Philippines has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 35 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0051535",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9948465,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Philippines",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rodrigo Duterte",
"month_risk": "0.0002931",
"annual_risk": "0.0051535",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "35",
"leader_years": "5.166667",
"country_code": "PHL",
"country_abb": "PHI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Poland in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Poland is Duda, who has been in power for 6.0 years. Poland has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002518",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997482,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Poland",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Duda",
"month_risk": "0.0002518",
"annual_risk": "0.0029942",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "6",
"country_code": "POL",
"country_abb": "POL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Poland in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Poland is Duda, who has been in power for 6.0 years. Poland has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 32 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0029942",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9970058,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Poland",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Duda",
"month_risk": "0.0002518",
"annual_risk": "0.0029942",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "32",
"leader_years": "6",
"country_code": "POL",
"country_abb": "POL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Portugal in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Portugal is de Sousa, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Portugal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 45 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001751",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Portugal",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "de Sousa",
"month_risk": "0.0001751",
"annual_risk": "0.0021258",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "45",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "PRT",
"country_abb": "POR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Portugal in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Portugal is de Sousa, who has been in power for 5.4 years. Portugal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 45 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0021258",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9978742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Portugal",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "de Sousa",
"month_risk": "0.0001751",
"annual_risk": "0.0021258",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "45",
"leader_years": "5.416667",
"country_code": "PRT",
"country_abb": "POR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Qatar in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Qatar is Khalifah Al Thani, who has been in power for 8.2 years. Qatar has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001396",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Qatar",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Khalifah Al Thani",
"month_risk": "0.0001396",
"annual_risk": "0.0016413",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "50",
"leader_years": "8.166667",
"country_code": "QAT",
"country_abb": "QAT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Qatar in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Qatar is Khalifah Al Thani, who has been in power for 8.2 years. Qatar has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0016413",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9983587,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Qatar",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Khalifah Al Thani",
"month_risk": "0.0001396",
"annual_risk": "0.0016413",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "50",
"leader_years": "8.166667",
"country_code": "QAT",
"country_abb": "QAT"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Romania in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Romania is Iohannis, who has been in power for 6.7 years. Romania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002907",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Romania",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Iohannis",
"month_risk": "0.0002907",
"annual_risk": "0.0034697",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "6.666667",
"country_code": "ROU",
"country_abb": "ROM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Romania in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Romania is Iohannis, who has been in power for 6.7 years. Romania has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0034697",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9965303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Romania",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Iohannis",
"month_risk": "0.0002907",
"annual_risk": "0.0034697",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "6.666667",
"country_code": "ROU",
"country_abb": "ROM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Russia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Russia is Putin, who has been in power for 21.6 years. Russia has a personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002873",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997127,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Russia",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Putin",
"month_risk": "0.0002873",
"annual_risk": "0.0053152",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "21.58333",
"country_code": "RUS",
"country_abb": "RUS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Russia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Russia is Putin, who has been in power for 21.6 years. Russia has a personal regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0053152",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9946848,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Russia",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Putin",
"month_risk": "0.0002873",
"annual_risk": "0.0053152",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "21.58333",
"country_code": "RUS",
"country_abb": "RUS"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Rwanda in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Rwanda is Paul Kagame, who has been in power for 27.1 years. Rwanda has a party-military regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0034484",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9965516,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Rwanda",
"regime_type": "Party-Military",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Paul Kagame",
"month_risk": "0.0034484",
"annual_risk": "0.0161845",
"risk_change_percent": "0.27",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "27.08333",
"country_code": "RWA",
"country_abb": "RWA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Rwanda in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Rwanda is Paul Kagame, who has been in power for 27.1 years. Rwanda has a party-military regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0161845",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9838155,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Rwanda",
"regime_type": "Party-Military",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Paul Kagame",
"month_risk": "0.0034484",
"annual_risk": "0.0161845",
"risk_change_percent": "0.27",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "27.08333",
"country_code": "RWA",
"country_abb": "RWA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Samoa in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Samoa is Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, who has been in power for 22.7 years. Samoa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 60 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002971",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997029,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Samoa",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi",
"month_risk": "0.0002971",
"annual_risk": "0.0091581",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "60",
"leader_years": "22.66667",
"country_code": "WSM",
"country_abb": "WSM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Samoa in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Samoa is Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, who has been in power for 22.7 years. Samoa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 60 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0091581",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9908419,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Samoa",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi",
"month_risk": "0.0002971",
"annual_risk": "0.0091581",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "60",
"leader_years": "22.66667",
"country_code": "WSM",
"country_abb": "WSM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in San Marino in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of San Marino is Venturini and Nicolini, who has been in power for 0.3 years. San Marino has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 421 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000669",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "San Marino",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Venturini and Nicolini",
"month_risk": "0.0000669",
"annual_risk": "0.0008075",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "421",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "SMR",
"country_abb": "SNM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in San Marino in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of San Marino is Venturini and Nicolini, who has been in power for 0.3 years. San Marino has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 421 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0008075",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9991925,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "San Marino",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Venturini and Nicolini",
"month_risk": "0.0000669",
"annual_risk": "0.0008075",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "421",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "SMR",
"country_abb": "SNM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sao Tome and Principe in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sao Tome and Principe is Carvalho, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Sao Tome and Principe has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0078768",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9921232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sao Tome and Principe",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Carvalho",
"month_risk": "0.0078768",
"annual_risk": "0.0226006",
"risk_change_percent": "0.68",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "4.916667",
"country_code": "STP",
"country_abb": "STP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sao Tome and Principe in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sao Tome and Principe is Carvalho, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Sao Tome and Principe has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0226006",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9773994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sao Tome and Principe",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Carvalho",
"month_risk": "0.0078768",
"annual_risk": "0.0226006",
"risk_change_percent": "0.68",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "4.916667",
"country_code": "STP",
"country_abb": "STP"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Saudi Arabia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Saudi Arabia is Salman, who has been in power for 6.6 years. Saudi Arabia has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 94 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002144",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Saudi Arabia",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Salman",
"month_risk": "0.0002144",
"annual_risk": "0.002504",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "94",
"leader_years": "6.583333",
"country_code": "SAU",
"country_abb": "SAU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Saudi Arabia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Saudi Arabia is Salman, who has been in power for 6.6 years. Saudi Arabia has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 94 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.002504",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.997496,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Saudi Arabia",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Salman",
"month_risk": "0.0002144",
"annual_risk": "0.002504",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "94",
"leader_years": "6.583333",
"country_code": "SAU",
"country_abb": "SAU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Senegal in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Senegal is Macky Sall, who has been in power for 9.3 years. Senegal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.00073",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99927,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Senegal",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Macky Sall",
"month_risk": "0.00073",
"annual_risk": "0.0108112",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "9.333333",
"country_code": "SEN",
"country_abb": "SEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Senegal in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Senegal is Macky Sall, who has been in power for 9.3 years. Senegal has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0108112",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9891888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Senegal",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Macky Sall",
"month_risk": "0.00073",
"annual_risk": "0.0108112",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "9.333333",
"country_code": "SEN",
"country_abb": "SEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Serbia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Serbia is Ana Brnabic, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Serbia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003886",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996114,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Serbia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ana Brnabic",
"month_risk": "0.0003886",
"annual_risk": "0.004671",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "4.166667",
"country_code": "SRB",
"country_abb": "YUG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Serbia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Serbia is Ana Brnabic, who has been in power for 4.2 years. Serbia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 21 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.004671",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.995329,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Serbia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ana Brnabic",
"month_risk": "0.0003886",
"annual_risk": "0.004671",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "21",
"leader_years": "4.166667",
"country_code": "SRB",
"country_abb": "YUG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Seychelles in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Seychelles is Wavel Ramkalawan, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Seychelles has a party regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004743",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995257,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Seychelles",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Wavel Ramkalawan",
"month_risk": "0.0004743",
"annual_risk": "0.0079383",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "0.8333333",
"country_code": "SYC",
"country_abb": "SEY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Seychelles in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Seychelles is Wavel Ramkalawan, who has been in power for 0.8 years. Seychelles has a party regime type which has lasted for 28 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0079383",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9920617,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Seychelles",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Wavel Ramkalawan",
"month_risk": "0.0004743",
"annual_risk": "0.0079383",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "28",
"leader_years": "0.8333333",
"country_code": "SYC",
"country_abb": "SEY"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sierra Leone in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sierra Leone is Julius Maada Bio, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Sierra Leone has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 23 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0010418",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9989582,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sierra Leone",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Julius Maada Bio",
"month_risk": "0.0010418",
"annual_risk": "0.0264177",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.28",
"regime_years": "23",
"leader_years": "3.333333",
"country_code": "SLE",
"country_abb": "SIE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sierra Leone in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sierra Leone is Julius Maada Bio, who has been in power for 3.3 years. Sierra Leone has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 23 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0264177",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9735823,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sierra Leone",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Julius Maada Bio",
"month_risk": "0.0010418",
"annual_risk": "0.0264177",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.28",
"regime_years": "23",
"leader_years": "3.333333",
"country_code": "SLE",
"country_abb": "SIE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Singapore in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Singapore is Lee Hsien Loong, who has been in power for 17.0 years. Singapore has a party regime type which has lasted for 56 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000683",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Singapore",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lee Hsien Loong",
"month_risk": "0.0000683",
"annual_risk": "0.0015722",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "56",
"leader_years": "17",
"country_code": "SGP",
"country_abb": "SIN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Singapore in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Singapore is Lee Hsien Loong, who has been in power for 17.0 years. Singapore has a party regime type which has lasted for 56 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0015722",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9984278,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Singapore",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lee Hsien Loong",
"month_risk": "0.0000683",
"annual_risk": "0.0015722",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "56",
"leader_years": "17",
"country_code": "SGP",
"country_abb": "SIN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Slovakia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Slovakia is Heger, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Slovakia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000225",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999775,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Heger",
"month_risk": "0.000225",
"annual_risk": "0.0026965",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "SVK",
"country_abb": "SLO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Slovakia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Slovakia is Heger, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Slovakia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 29 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0026965",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9973035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Slovakia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Heger",
"month_risk": "0.000225",
"annual_risk": "0.0026965",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "29",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "SVK",
"country_abb": "SLO"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Slovenia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Slovenia is Jansa, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Slovenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002061",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997939,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Slovenia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Jansa",
"month_risk": "0.0002061",
"annual_risk": "0.0024984",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "1.416667",
"country_code": "SVN",
"country_abb": "SLV"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Slovenia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Slovenia is Jansa, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Slovenia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0024984",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9975016,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Slovenia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Jansa",
"month_risk": "0.0002061",
"annual_risk": "0.0024984",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "1.416667",
"country_code": "SVN",
"country_abb": "SLV"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Solomon Islands in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Solomon Islands is Sogavare, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Solomon Islands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004629",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Solomon Islands",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sogavare",
"month_risk": "0.0004629",
"annual_risk": "0.005402",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "2.333333",
"country_code": "SLB",
"country_abb": "SOL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Solomon Islands in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Solomon Islands is Sogavare, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Solomon Islands has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.005402",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.994598,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Solomon Islands",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sogavare",
"month_risk": "0.0004629",
"annual_risk": "0.005402",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "2.333333",
"country_code": "SLB",
"country_abb": "SOL"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Somalia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Somalia is Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Somalia has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 9 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0012856",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9987144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Somalia",
"regime_type": "Civilian Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo",
"month_risk": "0.0012856",
"annual_risk": "0.0294958",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "9",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "SOM",
"country_abb": "SOM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Somalia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Somalia is Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who has been in power for 4.6 years. Somalia has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 9 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0294958",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9705042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Somalia",
"regime_type": "Civilian Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo",
"month_risk": "0.0012856",
"annual_risk": "0.0294958",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "9",
"leader_years": "4.583333",
"country_code": "SOM",
"country_abb": "SOM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in South Africa in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of South Africa is Ramaphosa, who has been in power for 3.5 years. South Africa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004114",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "South Africa",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ramaphosa",
"month_risk": "0.0004114",
"annual_risk": "0.0048248",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "3.5",
"country_code": "ZAF",
"country_abb": "SAF"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in South Africa in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of South Africa is Ramaphosa, who has been in power for 3.5 years. South Africa has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0048248",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9951752,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "South Africa",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Ramaphosa",
"month_risk": "0.0004114",
"annual_risk": "0.0048248",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "3.5",
"country_code": "ZAF",
"country_abb": "SAF"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in South Sudan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of South Sudan is Kiir, who has been in power for 10.1 years. South Sudan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0107309",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9892691,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "South Sudan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kiir",
"month_risk": "0.0107309",
"annual_risk": "0.0407773",
"risk_change_percent": "0.9",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "10.08333",
"country_code": "SSD",
"country_abb": "SSD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in South Sudan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of South Sudan is Kiir, who has been in power for 10.1 years. South Sudan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0407773",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9592227,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "South Sudan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Kiir",
"month_risk": "0.0107309",
"annual_risk": "0.0407773",
"risk_change_percent": "0.9",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "10.08333",
"country_code": "SSD",
"country_abb": "SSD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Spain in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Spain is Sanchez, who has been in power for 3.2 years. Spain has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 45 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002319",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997681,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Spain",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sanchez",
"month_risk": "0.0002319",
"annual_risk": "0.002784",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "45",
"leader_years": "3.166667",
"country_code": "ESP",
"country_abb": "SPN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Spain in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Spain is Sanchez, who has been in power for 3.2 years. Spain has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 45 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.002784",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.997216,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Spain",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Sanchez",
"month_risk": "0.0002319",
"annual_risk": "0.002784",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "45",
"leader_years": "3.166667",
"country_code": "ESP",
"country_abb": "SPN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sri Lanka in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sri Lanka is G. Rajapakse, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Sri Lanka has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003365",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sri Lanka",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "G. Rajapakse",
"month_risk": "0.0003365",
"annual_risk": "0.0039327",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "1.75",
"country_code": "LKA",
"country_abb": "SRI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sri Lanka in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sri Lanka is G. Rajapakse, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Sri Lanka has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 27 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0039327",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9960673,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sri Lanka",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "G. Rajapakse",
"month_risk": "0.0003365",
"annual_risk": "0.0039327",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "27",
"leader_years": "1.75",
"country_code": "LKA",
"country_abb": "SRI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in St Kitts and Nevis in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of St Kitts and Nevis is Harris, who has been in power for 6.5 years. St Kitts and Nevis has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 38 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002981",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "St Kitts and Nevis",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Harris",
"month_risk": "0.0002981",
"annual_risk": "0.003531",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "38",
"leader_years": "6.5",
"country_code": "KNA",
"country_abb": "SKN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in St Kitts and Nevis in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of St Kitts and Nevis is Harris, who has been in power for 6.5 years. St Kitts and Nevis has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 38 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.003531",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.996469,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "St Kitts and Nevis",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Harris",
"month_risk": "0.0002981",
"annual_risk": "0.003531",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "38",
"leader_years": "6.5",
"country_code": "KNA",
"country_abb": "SKN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in St Lucia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of St Lucia is Chastanet, who has been in power for 5.2 years. St Lucia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003842",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996158,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "St Lucia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Chastanet",
"month_risk": "0.0003842",
"annual_risk": "0.008079",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.3",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "5.166667",
"country_code": "LCA",
"country_abb": "SLU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in St Lucia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of St Lucia is Chastanet, who has been in power for 5.2 years. St Lucia has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.008079",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.991921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "St Lucia",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Chastanet",
"month_risk": "0.0003842",
"annual_risk": "0.008079",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.3",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "5.166667",
"country_code": "LCA",
"country_abb": "SLU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in St Vincent in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of St Vincent is Gonsalves, who has been in power for 20.4 years. St Vincent has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003925",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "St Vincent",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Gonsalves",
"month_risk": "0.0003925",
"annual_risk": "0.0046382",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "20.41667",
"country_code": "VCT",
"country_abb": "SVG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in St Vincent in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of St Vincent is Gonsalves, who has been in power for 20.4 years. St Vincent has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 42 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0046382",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9953618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "St Vincent",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Gonsalves",
"month_risk": "0.0003925",
"annual_risk": "0.0046382",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "42",
"leader_years": "20.41667",
"country_code": "VCT",
"country_abb": "SVG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sudan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sudan is Abdelrahman Burhan, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Sudan has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 2 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0019728",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9980272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sudan",
"regime_type": "Civilian Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abdelrahman Burhan",
"month_risk": "0.0019728",
"annual_risk": "0.056846",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.46",
"regime_years": "2",
"leader_years": "2.333333",
"country_code": "SDN",
"country_abb": "SUD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sudan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sudan is Abdelrahman Burhan, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Sudan has a civilian provisional regime type which has lasted for 2 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.056846",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.943154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sudan",
"regime_type": "Civilian Provisional",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Abdelrahman Burhan",
"month_risk": "0.0019728",
"annual_risk": "0.056846",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.46",
"regime_years": "2",
"leader_years": "2.333333",
"country_code": "SDN",
"country_abb": "SUD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Suriname in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Suriname is Santokhi, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Suriname has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005379",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994621,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Suriname",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Santokhi",
"month_risk": "0.0005379",
"annual_risk": "0.0084044",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "1.083333",
"country_code": "SUR",
"country_abb": "SUR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Suriname in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Suriname is Santokhi, who has been in power for 1.1 years. Suriname has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0084044",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9915956,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Suriname",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Santokhi",
"month_risk": "0.0005379",
"annual_risk": "0.0084044",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "1.083333",
"country_code": "SUR",
"country_abb": "SUR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Swaziland in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Swaziland is Mswati, who has been in power for 35.3 years. Swaziland has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 53 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000904",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999096,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Swaziland",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mswati",
"month_risk": "0.000904",
"annual_risk": "0.0105169",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "53",
"leader_years": "35.33333",
"country_code": "SWZ",
"country_abb": "SWA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Swaziland in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Swaziland is Mswati, who has been in power for 35.3 years. Swaziland has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 53 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0105169",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9894831,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Swaziland",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mswati",
"month_risk": "0.000904",
"annual_risk": "0.0105169",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "53",
"leader_years": "35.33333",
"country_code": "SWZ",
"country_abb": "SWA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sweden in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sweden is Lofven, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Sweden has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 103 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000089",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999911,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sweden",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lofven",
"month_risk": "0.000089",
"annual_risk": "0.0010639",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "103",
"leader_years": "6.833333",
"country_code": "SWE",
"country_abb": "SWD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Sweden in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Sweden is Lofven, who has been in power for 6.8 years. Sweden has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 103 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0010639",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9989361,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Sweden",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lofven",
"month_risk": "0.000089",
"annual_risk": "0.0010639",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "103",
"leader_years": "6.833333",
"country_code": "SWE",
"country_abb": "SWD"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Switzerland in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Switzerland is Parmelin, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Switzerland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 173 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000482",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999518,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Parmelin",
"month_risk": "0.0000482",
"annual_risk": "0.0005791",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "173",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "CHE",
"country_abb": "SWZ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Switzerland in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Switzerland is Parmelin, who has been in power for 0.6 years. Switzerland has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 173 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005791",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994209,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Switzerland",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Parmelin",
"month_risk": "0.0000482",
"annual_risk": "0.0005791",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "173",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "CHE",
"country_abb": "SWZ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Syria in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Syria is Bashar al-Assad, who has been in power for 21.2 years. Syria has a hybrid regime type which has lasted for 58 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005313",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994687,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Syria",
"regime_type": "HYBRID",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bashar al-Assad",
"month_risk": "0.0005313",
"annual_risk": "0.020604",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.19",
"regime_years": "58",
"leader_years": "21.16667",
"country_code": "SYR",
"country_abb": "SYR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Syria in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Syria is Bashar al-Assad, who has been in power for 21.2 years. Syria has a hybrid regime type which has lasted for 58 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.020604",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.979396,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Syria",
"regime_type": "HYBRID",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Bashar al-Assad",
"month_risk": "0.0005313",
"annual_risk": "0.020604",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.19",
"regime_years": "58",
"leader_years": "21.16667",
"country_code": "SYR",
"country_abb": "SYR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tajikistan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tajikistan is Rakhmonov, who has been in power for 28.8 years. Tajikistan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004997",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tajikistan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rakhmonov",
"month_risk": "0.0004997",
"annual_risk": "0.0112445",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "28.75",
"country_code": "TJK",
"country_abb": "TAJ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tajikistan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tajikistan is Rakhmonov, who has been in power for 28.8 years. Tajikistan has a personal regime type which has lasted for 30 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0112445",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9887555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tajikistan",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rakhmonov",
"month_risk": "0.0004997",
"annual_risk": "0.0112445",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "30",
"leader_years": "28.75",
"country_code": "TJK",
"country_abb": "TAJ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tanzania in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tanzania is Samia Suluhu Hassan, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Tanzania has a party regime type which has lasted for 57 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003151",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996849,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Samia Suluhu Hassan",
"month_risk": "0.0003151",
"annual_risk": "0.0035709",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "57",
"leader_years": "0.4166667",
"country_code": "TZA",
"country_abb": "TAZ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tanzania in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tanzania is Samia Suluhu Hassan, who has been in power for 0.4 years. Tanzania has a party regime type which has lasted for 57 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0035709",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9964291,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Samia Suluhu Hassan",
"month_risk": "0.0003151",
"annual_risk": "0.0035709",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "57",
"leader_years": "0.4166667",
"country_code": "TZA",
"country_abb": "TAZ"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Thailand in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Thailand is Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has been in power for 7.3 years. Thailand has a military regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003429",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996571,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Thailand",
"regime_type": "Military",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Prayuth Chan-ocha",
"month_risk": "0.0003429",
"annual_risk": "0.012226",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "7.25",
"country_code": "THA",
"country_abb": "THI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Thailand in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Thailand is Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has been in power for 7.3 years. Thailand has a military regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.012226",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.987774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Thailand",
"regime_type": "Military",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Prayuth Chan-ocha",
"month_risk": "0.0003429",
"annual_risk": "0.012226",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "7.25",
"country_code": "THA",
"country_abb": "THI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Togo in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Togo is Faure Gnassingbe, who has been in power for 16.3 years. Togo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005793",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994207,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Togo",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Faure Gnassingbe",
"month_risk": "0.0005793",
"annual_risk": "0.0066494",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "16.25",
"country_code": "TGO",
"country_abb": "TOG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Togo in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Togo is Faure Gnassingbe, who has been in power for 16.3 years. Togo has a personal regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0066494",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9933506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Togo",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Faure Gnassingbe",
"month_risk": "0.0005793",
"annual_risk": "0.0066494",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "16.25",
"country_code": "TGO",
"country_abb": "TOG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tonga in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tonga is Tu'I'onetoa, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Tonga has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 51 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0005303",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9994697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tonga",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tu'I'onetoa",
"month_risk": "0.0005303",
"annual_risk": "0.0061172",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "51",
"leader_years": "1.833333",
"country_code": "TON",
"country_abb": "TON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tonga in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tonga is Tu'I'onetoa, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Tonga has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 51 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0061172",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9938828,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tonga",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Tu'I'onetoa",
"month_risk": "0.0005303",
"annual_risk": "0.0061172",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "51",
"leader_years": "1.833333",
"country_code": "TON",
"country_abb": "TON"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Trinidad and Tobago in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Trinidad and Tobago is Rowley, who has been in power for 5.9 years. Trinidad and Tobago has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002732",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Trinidad and Tobago",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rowley",
"month_risk": "0.0002732",
"annual_risk": "0.0032409",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "5.916667",
"country_code": "TTO",
"country_abb": "TRI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Trinidad and Tobago in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Trinidad and Tobago is Rowley, who has been in power for 5.9 years. Trinidad and Tobago has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 59 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0032409",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9967591,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Trinidad and Tobago",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Rowley",
"month_risk": "0.0002732",
"annual_risk": "0.0032409",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "59",
"leader_years": "5.916667",
"country_code": "TTO",
"country_abb": "TRI"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tunisia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tunisia is Saied, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Tunisia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0006186",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9993814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tunisia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Saied",
"month_risk": "0.0006186",
"annual_risk": "0.0068686",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "1.833333",
"country_code": "TUN",
"country_abb": "TUN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tunisia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tunisia is Saied, who has been in power for 1.8 years. Tunisia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 7 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0068686",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9931314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tunisia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Saied",
"month_risk": "0.0006186",
"annual_risk": "0.0068686",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "7",
"leader_years": "1.833333",
"country_code": "TUN",
"country_abb": "TUN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Turkey in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Turkey is Erdogan, who has been in power for 18.4 years. Turkey has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0016393",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9983607,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Turkey",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Erdogan",
"month_risk": "0.0016393",
"annual_risk": "0.0071127",
"risk_change_percent": "0.14",
"regime_years": "2",
"leader_years": "18.41667",
"country_code": "TUR",
"country_abb": "TUR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Turkey in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Turkey is Erdogan, who has been in power for 18.4 years. Turkey has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 2 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0071127",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9928873,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Turkey",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Erdogan",
"month_risk": "0.0016393",
"annual_risk": "0.0071127",
"risk_change_percent": "0.14",
"regime_years": "2",
"leader_years": "18.41667",
"country_code": "TUR",
"country_abb": "TUR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Turkmenistan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Turkmenistan is Berdymukhammedov, who has been in power for 14.7 years. Turkmenistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003521",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996479,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Turkmenistan",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Berdymukhammedov",
"month_risk": "0.0003521",
"annual_risk": "0.0044769",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "14.66667",
"country_code": "TKM",
"country_abb": "TKM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Turkmenistan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Turkmenistan is Berdymukhammedov, who has been in power for 14.7 years. Turkmenistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0044769",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9955231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Turkmenistan",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Berdymukhammedov",
"month_risk": "0.0003521",
"annual_risk": "0.0044769",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "14.66667",
"country_code": "TKM",
"country_abb": "TKM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tuvalu in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tuvalu is Natano, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Tuvalu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002978",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997022,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tuvalu",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Natano",
"month_risk": "0.0002978",
"annual_risk": "0.0035164",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "1.916667",
"country_code": "TUV",
"country_abb": "TUV"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Tuvalu in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Tuvalu is Natano, who has been in power for 1.9 years. Tuvalu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 43 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0035164",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9964836,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Tuvalu",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Natano",
"month_risk": "0.0002978",
"annual_risk": "0.0035164",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "43",
"leader_years": "1.916667",
"country_code": "TUV",
"country_abb": "TUV"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Uganda in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Uganda is Museveni, who has been in power for 35.6 years. Uganda has a personal regime type which has lasted for 36 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004876",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995124,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Uganda",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Museveni",
"month_risk": "0.0004876",
"annual_risk": "0.0240226",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.23",
"regime_years": "36",
"leader_years": "35.58333",
"country_code": "UGA",
"country_abb": "UGA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Uganda in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Uganda is Museveni, who has been in power for 35.6 years. Uganda has a personal regime type which has lasted for 36 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0240226",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9759774,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Uganda",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Museveni",
"month_risk": "0.0004876",
"annual_risk": "0.0240226",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.23",
"regime_years": "36",
"leader_years": "35.58333",
"country_code": "UGA",
"country_abb": "UGA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in UK in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of UK is Johnson, who has been in power for 2.1 years. UK has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 110 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0001579",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9998421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "UK",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Johnson",
"month_risk": "0.0001579",
"annual_risk": "0.0019001",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "110",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "GBR",
"country_abb": "UKG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in UK in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of UK is Johnson, who has been in power for 2.1 years. UK has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 110 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0019001",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9980999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "UK",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Johnson",
"month_risk": "0.0001579",
"annual_risk": "0.0019001",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "110",
"leader_years": "2.083333",
"country_code": "GBR",
"country_abb": "UKG"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ukraine in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ukraine is Zelensky, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Ukraine has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004618",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Zelensky",
"month_risk": "0.0004618",
"annual_risk": "0.0073429",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "UKR",
"country_abb": "UKR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Ukraine in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Ukraine is Zelensky, who has been in power for 2.3 years. Ukraine has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0073429",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9926571,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Zelensky",
"month_risk": "0.0004618",
"annual_risk": "0.0073429",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "2.25",
"country_code": "UKR",
"country_abb": "UKR"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in United Arab Emirates in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of United Arab Emirates is Khalifa Al Nahayan, who has been in power for 16.8 years. United Arab Emirates has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997847,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "United Arab Emirates",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Khalifa Al Nahayan",
"month_risk": "0.0002153",
"annual_risk": "0.0025185",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "50",
"leader_years": "16.75",
"country_code": "ARE",
"country_abb": "UAE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in United Arab Emirates in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of United Arab Emirates is Khalifa Al Nahayan, who has been in power for 16.8 years. United Arab Emirates has a monarchy regime type which has lasted for 50 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0025185",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9974815,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "United Arab Emirates",
"regime_type": "Monarchy",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Khalifa Al Nahayan",
"month_risk": "0.0002153",
"annual_risk": "0.0025185",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "50",
"leader_years": "16.75",
"country_code": "ARE",
"country_abb": "UAE"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Uruguay in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Uruguay is Luis Pou, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Uruguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 37 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003468",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9996532,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Luis Pou",
"month_risk": "0.0003468",
"annual_risk": "0.0041209",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "37",
"leader_years": "1.416667",
"country_code": "URY",
"country_abb": "URU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Uruguay in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Uruguay is Luis Pou, who has been in power for 1.4 years. Uruguay has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 37 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0041209",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9958791,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Uruguay",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Luis Pou",
"month_risk": "0.0003468",
"annual_risk": "0.0041209",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "37",
"leader_years": "1.416667",
"country_code": "URY",
"country_abb": "URU"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in USA in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of USA is Biden, who has been in power for 0.6 years. USA has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 232 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0000577",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999423,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "USA",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Biden",
"month_risk": "0.0000577",
"annual_risk": "0.0007234",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "232",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "USA",
"country_abb": "USA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in USA in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of USA is Biden, who has been in power for 0.6 years. USA has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 232 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007234",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9992766,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "USA",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Biden",
"month_risk": "0.0000577",
"annual_risk": "0.0007234",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "232",
"leader_years": "0.5833333",
"country_code": "USA",
"country_abb": "USA"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Uzbekistan in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Uzbekistan is Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Uzbekistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004629",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Uzbekistan",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Shavkat Mirziyoyev",
"month_risk": "0.0004629",
"annual_risk": "0.0090786",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "4.916667",
"country_code": "UZB",
"country_abb": "UZB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Uzbekistan in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Uzbekistan is Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who has been in power for 4.9 years. Uzbekistan has a party-personal regime type which has lasted for 31 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0090786",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9909214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Uzbekistan",
"regime_type": "Party-Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Shavkat Mirziyoyev",
"month_risk": "0.0004629",
"annual_risk": "0.0090786",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "31",
"leader_years": "4.916667",
"country_code": "UZB",
"country_abb": "UZB"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Vanuatu in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Vanuatu is Loughman, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Vanuatu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 41 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000395",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999605,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Vanuatu",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Loughman",
"month_risk": "0.000395",
"annual_risk": "0.0046341",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "41",
"leader_years": "1.333333",
"country_code": "VUT",
"country_abb": "VAN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Vanuatu in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Vanuatu is Loughman, who has been in power for 1.3 years. Vanuatu has a parliamentary regime type which has lasted for 41 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0046341",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9953659,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Vanuatu",
"regime_type": "Parliamentary",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Loughman",
"month_risk": "0.000395",
"annual_risk": "0.0046341",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "41",
"leader_years": "1.333333",
"country_code": "VUT",
"country_abb": "VAN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Venezuela in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Venezuela is Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power for 8.4 years. Venezuela has a personal regime type which has lasted for 16 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000923",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nicolas Maduro",
"month_risk": "0.000923",
"annual_risk": "0.0239087",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "16",
"leader_years": "8.416667",
"country_code": "VEN",
"country_abb": "VEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Venezuela in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Venezuela is Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power for 8.4 years. Venezuela has a personal regime type which has lasted for 16 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0239087",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9760913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"regime_type": "Personal",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Nicolas Maduro",
"month_risk": "0.000923",
"annual_risk": "0.0239087",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "16",
"leader_years": "8.416667",
"country_code": "VEN",
"country_abb": "VEN"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Vietnam in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Vietnam is Xuan Phuc, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Vietnam has a party regime type which has lasted for 72 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0002023",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9997977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Vietnam",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Xuan Phuc",
"month_risk": "0.0002023",
"annual_risk": "0.0028052",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "72",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "VNM",
"country_abb": "DRV"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Vietnam in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Vietnam is Xuan Phuc, who has been in power for 0.3 years. Vietnam has a party regime type which has lasted for 72 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0028052",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9971948,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Vietnam",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Xuan Phuc",
"month_risk": "0.0002023",
"annual_risk": "0.0028052",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "72",
"leader_years": "0.3333333",
"country_code": "VNM",
"country_abb": "DRV"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Yemen in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Yemen is Houthi, who has been in power for 6.5 years. Yemen has a warlordism regime type which has lasted for 6 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0004439",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995561,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Yemen",
"regime_type": "Warlordism",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Houthi",
"month_risk": "0.0004439",
"annual_risk": "0.0089818",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "6",
"leader_years": "6.5",
"country_code": "YEM",
"country_abb": "YEM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Yemen in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Yemen is Houthi, who has been in power for 6.5 years. Yemen has a warlordism regime type which has lasted for 6 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0089818",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9910182,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Yemen",
"regime_type": "Warlordism",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Houthi",
"month_risk": "0.0004439",
"annual_risk": "0.0089818",
"risk_change_percent": "0",
"regime_years": "6",
"leader_years": "6.5",
"country_code": "YEM",
"country_abb": "YEM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Zambia in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Zambia is Lungu, who has been in power for 6.6 years. Zambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0010248",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9989752,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Zambia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lungu",
"month_risk": "0.0010248",
"annual_risk": "0.0262306",
"risk_change_percent": "0.01",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "6.583333",
"country_code": "ZMB",
"country_abb": "ZAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Zambia in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Zambia is Lungu, who has been in power for 6.6 years. Zambia has a presidential regime type which has lasted for 10 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0262306",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9737694,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Zambia",
"regime_type": "Presidential",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Lungu",
"month_risk": "0.0010248",
"annual_risk": "0.0262306",
"risk_change_percent": "0.01",
"regime_years": "10",
"leader_years": "6.583333",
"country_code": "ZMB",
"country_abb": "ZAM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Zimbabwe in the next month (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Zimbabwe is Mnangagwa, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Zimbabwe has a party regime type which has lasted for 41 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.000707",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999293,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Zimbabwe",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mnangagwa",
"month_risk": "0.000707",
"annual_risk": "0.0239924",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.3",
"regime_years": "41",
"leader_years": "3.75",
"country_code": "ZWE",
"country_abb": "ZIM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a coup in Zimbabwe in the next year (as of 7/2021)?",
"url": "https://www.oneearthfuture.org/activities/coup-cast",
"platform": "CoupCast",
"description": ". The current leader of Zimbabwe is Mnangagwa, who has been in power for 3.8 years. Zimbabwe has a party regime type which has lasted for 41 years",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0239924",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9760076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:02.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"extra": {
"country_name": "Zimbabwe",
"regime_type": "Party",
"month": "7",
"year": "2021",
"leader_name": "Mnangagwa",
"month_risk": "0.000707",
"annual_risk": "0.0239924",
"risk_change_percent": "-0.3",
"regime_years": "41",
"leader_years": "3.75",
"country_code": "ZWE",
"country_abb": "ZIM"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. Metaculus has (now closed) questions on the performance of the top supercomputer in 2022 and when the first exaFLOP supercomputer will appear.Context. According to the Top500 list, Japan's Fugaku supercomputer has been the world's fastest supercomputer since June 2020, with a maximum performance of 442,010 TFLOP/s, or nearly half exascale. The United States has two exascale supercomputers expected to be operational in 2021 or 2022. Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Frontier supercomputer is scheduled for delivery in 2021, with full user operations in 2022. Argonne National Laboratory's Aurora was originally expected to be the first of the two but due to delays acquiring 7nm chips is now expected by some to debut in 2022.China is also developing three exascale supercomputers expected by some to be operational in 2021-2022. In April 2021, the United States imposed export controls on four supercomputer centers in China purportedly working on exascale machines, citing national security concerns. Resolution details. This question resolves based on the maximum performance achieved using the LINPACK benchmark (rMax) according to the June 2022 Top500 list, which \"shows the 500 most powerful commercially available computer systems known to us.\" The Top500 list publishes rankings in November and June every year. See here for more information about its methodology.***This question was suggested by Foretell pro forecaster Ryan Beck (@RyanBeck).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:00:49.551Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "31",
"numforecasters": "29",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/168-when-will-1-billion-people-in-india-receive-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. In Spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC; BBC). As of July 8, 2021, 296 million people in India have received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. Data and resolution details. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government. Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row in the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; one hundred crore (1,00,00,00,000) is equivalent to one billion (1,000,000,000) in international notation.For time series data, see Our World in Data. The underlying data from Our World in Data is here.***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:00:52.284Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "80",
"numforecasters": "68",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. A version of this question asking about the chance of conflict before July 1, 2021 recently closed. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Tensions between Taiwan and China have been particularly high (CFR, BBC). China had previously aimed for peaceful reunification with Taiwan. In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang dropped the term “peaceful” from a speech, apparently reflecting shifting policies on the island (Reuters). Throughout 2020, China has stepped up activities in the East and South China Sea (Al Jazeera, IISS) with some media reporting of an imminent invasion of Taiwan (Express, Forbes). In the Annual Report to Congress, the the Office of the Secretary of Defense state that an invasion of Taiwan would be a “significant political and military risk” but “China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba” (Department of Defense). In August 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military exercises off the Pratas islands to “simulate seizing the Pratas Islands” (Taipei Times). Foreign Policy assessed an invasion of Taiwan by China was unlikely, while The Diplomat suggests China’s military activity represents the end state of a failed strategy, not an imminent attack. Taiwan’s current features include the Pratas Islands and Itu Aba Island (CSIS). The control of a feature in the South China Sea would indicate a serious escalation within the region. Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or official statements. Seizing would involve an invasion, conquest, and control of a feature by Chinese military forces, lasting more than 24 hours. The question will resolve once control has been held for 24 hours, irrespective of how long that control is maintained after that period. Why does this question close so soon? We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., six months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:00:54.118Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/163-following-el-salvador-will-another-country-classify-bitcoin-as-legal-tender-by-december-31-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. On June 9, 2021, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, announced that the Salvadoran Congress had voted to make Bitcoin legal tender. Legal tender is money that courts of law are required to recognize as satisfactory payment for a monetary debt. Making cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, legal tender has several benefits for developing countries without sophisticated financial systems. For one, it makes their economy less vulnerable to inflation caused by the actions of other country's central banks. Bukele cited recent actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve as one of the motivations for El Salvador's new law. Second, it makes it easier to send money without having a bank account. El Salvadorans living outside the country sent $5.92 billion to friends and family in El Salvador in 2020. According to Bukele, \"a big chunk of those 6 billion dollars is lost to intermediaries.\" Third, it makes their economy more attractive to crypto entrepreneurs. There are risks, however. According to The Independent, \"Speculation within bitcoin forums and among crypto commentators on Twitter is that the US could target El Salvador with sanctions, as it represents a threat to the strength of the US dollar - the other official currency of the country. One way to potentially mitigate against this risk would be for countries that accept bitcoin as legal tender to form an economic alliance.\"Paraguay and Panama appear closest to making Bitcoin legal tender, with politicians in both countries claiming they will introduce legislation similar to El Savador's. The Independent states that \"elected officials in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua have all spoken favourably about bitcoin, with some pledging to introduce legislation that is favourable to cryptocurrencies.\"Resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media reporting that a country other than El Salvador has taken the legal steps necessary to make Bitcoin legal tender. The question resolves positively if the legal steps, such as legislative approval of a new law, are completed by December 31, 2021, even if the law would not go into effect until a later date.***This question was proposed by Mauricio_B. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:00:55.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "129",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/162-will-the-world-health-organization-declare-a-new-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-between-august-1-2021-and-august-1-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The International Health Regulations (2005) empower the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), defined as \"an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response.\" An IHR Emergency Committee comprising a panel of experts advises the WHO Director-General on potential PHEICs. The WHO Director-General makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.Since 2007, the WHO has made six PHEIC declarations: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, Ebola (West African outbreak 2013–2015, outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo 2018–2020), poliomyelitis (2014 to present), Zika (2016) and COVID-19 (2020 to present).Resolution details. This question resolves based on an official declaration by the WHO. Why does this question close so soon? We will soon implement a new rolling-risk format on Foretell. Questions of this form will ask about the likelihood of an event within a set period of time, e.g., 12 months. Such questions could remain active indefinitely. When that format is available, this question will be re-published in that format.***This question was proposed by P Alex Demarsh (palexd).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:00:58.170Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "99",
"numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/155-experimental-what-will-be-the-median-foretell-forecast-on-whether-covid-19-originated-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china-on-october-1-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Note on this question. This question is part of a pair of experimental questions. Its sister question asks about forecasters' genuine beliefs about the origin of COVID-19. That question will not be scored. Its purpose is to serve as a ground truth to be forecasted in this question. The sister question will be scored. Its purpose is to elicit forecasts about the crowd consensus for the sister question on October 1, 2021. We recognize that the pair of questions can be gamed by providing disingenuous forecasts on the sister question to improve one's score on this question. We kindly ask that forecasters not do that. Related question. Related questions are on Metaculus and Hypermind.Context. The leading hypotheses for the origin of COVID-19 are (i) animal-to-human transmission, and (ii) a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (\"lab-leak theory\"). Two Chinese researchers stated in a paper in February 2020 that the virus likely originated in a lab in Wuhan, China. The lab-leak theory also had champions within conservative circles in the United States. The World Health Organization dismissed the lab-leak theory, however, and -- as reported by the New York Times -- the apparent politicization of the theory in the U.S. created a \"fake bubble of consensus\" among scientists and the media against the theory (quoting Matthew Yglesias).The lab-leak theory is now receiving renewed attention. On May 14, 2021,18 scientists stated in a letter to the Journal of Science that the lab-leak theory is \"viable.\" Other scientists have recently come out as less dismissive of the lab-leak theory. And on May 27, President Biden asked the U.S. intelligence community to investigate the lab-leak theory and report back to him in 90 days. (See also Washington Post timeline on how the lab-leak theory became credible.)Resolution details. This question will resolve based on the consensus crowd forecast of its sister question as of closing, at 11:59 ET on October 1, 2021. The consensus crowd forecast is always shown under \"Crowd Forecast\" button. It's the mean of the 68% most-recent forecasts. The bins are up to but not including the upper boundary, meaning, for example, in the unlikely event the consensus forecast is exactly 30%, the 30%-40% bin will be correct. Foretell staff reserve the right to omit forecasts when calculating the crowd consensus if we have reason to believe they were made in bad faith. In such a case, we will communicate to forecasters that we are omitting forecasts, and the effect on the consensus forecast, as soon as we are aware of the problem.Why are we asking these questions? If we will never know the ground truth for a question, we cannot score it in the conventional manner. Many questions of this form are of great interest, however. A new method for scoring unresolvable questions -- called \"reciprocal scoring\" -- treats the crowd consensus as the ground truth and scores forecasters based on how close their forecasts are to the crowd consensus. See Karger, Monrad, Mellers, Tetlock, \"Accelerating the Evaluation of Policy Options in Crises: The COVID-19 Pandemic\" [Forthcoming]. For a similar method, see Hypermind's Drip Rewards.For this pair of questions, we're treating the crowd consensus on October 1, 2021 as the ground truth. This question is effectively asking two questions: (i) what new information about the origins of COVID-19 do you expect to be available by October 1, 2021, and (ii) what impact do you expect it will have on the consensus view of the crowd.*** \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:02.085Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "110",
"numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/154-experimental-did-covid-19-originate-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Note on this question. This question is part of a pair of experimental questions. This question will not be scored. Its purpose is to elicit forecasters' genuine beliefs. The sister question will be scored. Its purpose is to elicit forecasts about the crowd consensus for this question on October 1, 2021. We recognize that the pair of questions can be gamed by providing disingenuous forecasts on this question to improve your score on the sister question. We kindly ask that forecasters not do that. Related questions. Related questions are on Metaculus and Hypermind.Context. The leading hypotheses for the origin of COVID-19 are (i) animal-to-human transmission, and (ii) a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (\"lab-leak theory\"). Two Chinese researchers stated in a paper in February 2020 that the virus likely originated in a lab in Wuhan, China. The lab-leak theory also had champions within conservative circles in the United States. The World Health Organization dismissed the lab-leak theory, however, and -- as reported by the New York Times -- the apparent politicization of the theory in the U.S. created a \"fake bubble of consensus\" among scientists and the media against the theory (quoting Matthew Yglesias).The lab-leak theory is now receiving renewed attention. On May 14, 2021,18 scientists stated in a letter to the Journal of Science that the lab-leak theory is \"viable.\" Other scientists have recently come out as less dismissive of the lab-leak theory. And on May 27, President Biden asked the U.S. intelligence community to investigate the lab-leak theory and report back to him in 90 days. (See also Washington Post timeline on how the lab-leak theory became credible.)Resolution details. As noted above, this question will not resolve. Its purpose is to serve as a ground truth for its sister question. Why are we asking these questions? If we will never know the ground truth for a question, we cannot score it in the conventional manner. Many questions of this form are of great interest, however. A new method for scoring unresolvable questions -- called \"reciprocal scoring\" -- treats the crowd consensus as the ground truth and scores forecasters based on how close their forecasts are to the crowd consensus. See Karger, Monrad, Mellers, Tetlock, \"Accelerating the Evaluation of Policy Options in Crises: The COVID-19 Pandemic\" [Forthcoming]. For a similar method, see Hypermind's Drip Rewards.For this pair of questions, we're treating the crowd consensus on October 1, 2021 as the ground truth. The sister question is effectively asking two questions: (i) what new information about the origins of COVID-19 do you expect to be available by October 1, 2021, and (ii) what impact do you expect it will have on the consensus view of the crowd.*** \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:04.582Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "156",
"numforecasters": "102",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Democratic Party maintain its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/150-will-the-democratic-party-maintain-its-majority-in-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-after-the-midterm-elections-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. You can view similar questions on PredictIt and Smarkets. Context. All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be contested at the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, to be held on November 8, 2022. The Democratic Party has had a majority in the House since the 2018 midterm elections, when they held 235 seats. The Democratic Party's majority was reduced to 222 seats after the 2020 elections. Since 2020, three seats held by Democrats have been vacated: Ohio 11; New Mexico 1; and Florida 20. A Democrat won the New Mexico 1 special election; the Ohio 11 and Florida 20 special elections will be held on November 2, 2021, and January 11, 2022, respectively.  The New York Time's FiveThirtyEight blog provides ongoing analysis of relevant historical and polling data. For example, since 1946, the president's party has lost an average 27 House seats.Resolution details. A candidate will be considered a Democrat if they are formally affiliated with the Democratic Party in the election, or if they have publicly stated that they intend to caucus with the Democratic Party. Determination of the election outcome will based on popular media reporting if the result is reasonably unambiguous. If the outcome is initially reasonably ambiguous, determination of the election outcome will be based on state election authority certification, or other official state determination. If the outcome is unclear for any other reasons, including contestation of the results, Foretell staff will determine at their discretion when, and on what basis, to resolve this question.***This question was proposed by Vanessa Pineda (username: vpsays).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:06.492Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "132",
"numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/141-what-will-the-big-5-tech-companies-average-reputation-ranking-be-in-the-2022-harris-poll",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. According to the Axios Harris Poll's recently released 2021 Corporate Reputation Rankings, the reputation of big tech companies has taken a \"pandemic plunge.\" Among the Big 5 tech companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft -- Amazon remains at the top at #10 (out of 100), and Facebook remains at the bottom at #98 (out of 100). Between those two extremes, Microsoft and Google's rankings dropped significantly since 2020. Only Apple's ranking improved between 2020 and 2021, from #27 to #16 (out of 100).Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the results of the 2022 Axios Harris Poll. Based on the publication schedule of previous polls, we expect the 2022 poll to be released between February and July 2022.The Axios Harris poll describes its methodology as follows: \"The Axios Harris Poll 100 is based on a survey of 42,935 Americans in a nationally representative sample. The two-step process starts fresh each year by surveying the public’s top-of-mind awareness of companies that either excel or falter in society. These 100 'most visible companies' are then rated by a second group of Americans across the seven key dimensions of reputation to determine the ranking. If a company is not on the list, it did not reach a critical level of visibility to be measured.\"Note on reading the graph: The x-axis is the average company ranking out of 100. That means a higher number = a worse reputation.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question was proposed by Foretell pro forecaster Anthony Cordetti (username: ACordetti).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:09.094Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "178",
"numforecasters": "96",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/134-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-have-a-chinese-co-author-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. A version of this question was previously issued for 2021. You can view those forecasts here. The median crowd forecast for 2021 is 18.4%.Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization.The data for 2021 in the graph below is incomplete and will be updated over the course of the year. The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes.  To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:11.351Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "119",
"numforecasters": "63",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/132-what-percentage-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-reference-ai-ethics-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. A version of this question was previously issued for 2021. You can view those forecasts here. The median crowd forecast for 2021 is 5%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2021), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms. The data for 2021 in the graph below is incomplete and will be updated over the course of the year. The graph is linked directly to data from the vendor. Values on the graph can change if the vendor updates the data in ways that impact past data points. The data underlying the graph on the date the question was published is here. If the data changes to a non-trivial extent, we will notify forecasters and add a new snapshot of the data to the spreadsheet to make it easier to view the changes. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:19.517Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "129",
"numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/131-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. A version of this question was previously issued for the first half of 2021 but was voided due to a data error. Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:21.911Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "125",
"numforecasters": "54",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/129-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. A version of this question was previously issued for 2021. You can view those forecasts here. That question has not yet resolved. The mean crowd forecast for that question -- made before 2020 data was available -- is $325 billion.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:24.523Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasters": "40",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/128-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips. A version of this question was previously issued for 2021. You can view those forecasts here. That question has not yet resolved. The mean crowd forecast for that question -- made before 2020 data was available -- is $33 billion.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:26.739Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "100",
"numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/130-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment. A version of this question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. You can view those forecasts here. That question has not yet resolved. The mean crowd forecast for that question -- made before 2020 H2 data was available -- is $5 billion.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:29.715Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "95",
"numforecasters": "38",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/127-will-a-g7-country-boycott-the-beijing-2022-winter-olympics-before-january-1-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. A related question on Good Judgment Open asks about the chance of a U.S. boycott.Context. The 2022 Winter Olympics are scheduled to occur in Beijing between February 4 and 20, 2022.In recent months, countries, companies, and athletes have faced rising pressure to boycott the Beijing Olympics because of China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang (CNBC, Economist, Guardian). More than 180 organizations have called to boycott the Beijing Olympics (BBC, Economist). Tensions rose further following sanctions by the UK, U.S., Canada, and the EU against China for \"serious human rights abuses\" (CNN). The Biden administration has floated the idea of a boycott (Financial Times) and has reportedly discussed a joint boycott with U.S. allies (AP News).Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal Gazette, History.com). The U.S boycotted the Moscow Olympics to protest the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and sixty-five nations refused to participate in the games (U.S State Gov). Most of the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa boycotted the Summer Olympics in Montreal to protest the attendance of New Zealand after the latter sent its rugby team to play against the team from apartheid South Africa (U.S State Gov).Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined by reputable media reporting or an official announcement that a G7 country is boycotting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:31.535Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "403",
"numforecasters": "182",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. Chinese military basing in the Pacific has been an acute concern for US, Australian and New Zealand military planners for some time. China has made political and economic inroads into the Pacific islands for years and recent ‘covid diplomacy’ has generated new political capital (Eurasian Times). China came close in 2018 as it discussed co-developing four major ports and eventually a military base in Papua New Guinea, including at Lombrum Naval Base on Manus Island. There was also speculation of a proposed military base on Vanuatu (Reuters), which China denied (Guardian).The signing of an official agreement between one or more Pacific nations would be seen as a significant development in this area.Resolution details. The outcome of this question will be determined on any official announcement or reputable media reporting that an agreement has been reached to establish a Chinese military base in the Pacific Ocean.***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:33.410Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "306",
"numforecasters": "100",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question is cross-posted on Predictit.Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:35.824Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "136",
"numforecasters": "48",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:38.370Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:40.577Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "120",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2022.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The \"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:48.831Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "217",
"numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:52.110Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "151",
"numforecasters": "53",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for fiscal year 2022. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:54.382Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "135",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question is cross-posted on Predictit.Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:56.513Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "496",
"numforecasters": "186",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:01:59.351Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "338",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:02:02.227Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "342",
"numforecasters": "130",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:02:04.317Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "397",
"numforecasters": "130",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 50 but less than or equal to 60",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Less than 30 (good reputation)",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 and 40, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 60 (bad reputation)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:02:06.611Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "505",
"numforecasters": "214",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "More than 40 but less than or equal to 50, More than 50 but less than or equal to 60, Less than 30 (good reputation), Between 30 and 40, inclusive, More than 60 (bad reputation)"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-23T12:02:08.858Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "419",
"numforecasters": "175",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5635112359550561,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.43648876404494386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.056Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 356,
"numforecasters": 147,
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8117955102040816,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.18820448979591842,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.056Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 245,
"numforecasters": 132,
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.36660493827160495,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.633395061728395,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.056Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 162,
"numforecasters": 106,
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.060Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 140,
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"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.060Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"numforecasters": 94,
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
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{
"title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",
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"title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
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{
"title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
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{
"title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
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"title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
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"title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
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"title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
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{
"title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
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"title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
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"name": "Yes",
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{
"title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
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{
"title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
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{
"title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
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{
"title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",
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"name": "Yes",
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"name": "No",
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{
"title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
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{
"title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
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{
"title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
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{
"title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
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"name": "Yes",
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{
"title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
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"title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
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"title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
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"title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
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"title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
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"title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
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"title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
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"title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
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"title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
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"title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
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"title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
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"title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
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"title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
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"title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
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"title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",
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"title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
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"title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",
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"title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
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"title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
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"title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
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"title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",
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{
"title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
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"title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
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{
"title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
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{
"title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
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{
"title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
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{
"title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
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{
"title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
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{
"title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
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{
"title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
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"title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
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"title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
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{
"title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
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{
"title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
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{
"title": "ETI is AGI",
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{
"title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
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{
"title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
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{
"title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.071Z",
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},
{
"title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
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{
"title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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"numforecasts": 14,
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"stars": 1
},
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{
"title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.071Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
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{
"title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.071Z",
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{
"title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
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},
{
"title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
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{
"title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.071Z",
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"title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
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"title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
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"title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
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"title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
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"title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
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"title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
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{
"title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
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{
"title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
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{
"title": "100 million",
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{
"title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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{
"title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
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{
"title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
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"name": "No",
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{
"title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
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{
"title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",
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"title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
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{
"title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
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{
"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
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"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
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"title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
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{
"title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
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{
"title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",
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{
"title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
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{
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
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{
"title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
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{
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
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{
"title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
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{
"title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
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"title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
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"title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
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"title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
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"title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
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"title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
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"title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
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"title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
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{
"title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
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"title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
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"title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
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"title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
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"title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
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"title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
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{
"title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
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{
"title": "Trump will run for president in 2024",
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"title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
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"title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
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{
"title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
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"title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
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"title": "By January 1, 2022, at least one domain expert not employed by Giving Green* rates their activism research 4 or better on a 5-point scale from “very unconvincing” to “very convincing.”",
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"title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
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"title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
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"title": "(Agreement) Should a definition of goal-directedness pass this test for goals? (0 = full disagreement, 100 = full agreement)",
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{
"title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
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"title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
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{
"title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
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"title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",
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"title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",
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"title": "'President Mike Pence'",
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"title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
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"title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
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"title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
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"title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
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"title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
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"title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
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"title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
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{
"title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
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"title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
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"title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
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{
"title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
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{
"title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
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{
"title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
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{
"title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
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{
"title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
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{
"title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
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{
"title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
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"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
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{
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
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{
"title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
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{
"title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
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{
"title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
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{
"title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
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{
"title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
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{
"title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
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{
"title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
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"title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
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"title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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"title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
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"title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
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"title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
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"title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
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"title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
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"title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
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"title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
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"title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
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{
"title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
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{
"title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
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{
"title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
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{
"title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
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"title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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{
"title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
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"title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
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"title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
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{
"title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
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{
"title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
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{
"title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
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{
"title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
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{
"title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
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{
"title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:28.081Z",
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{
"title": "Estimates for Security (Symbol)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/symbol",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.621Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/abt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/abbv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/abmd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Accenture (ACN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/acn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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{
"title": "Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/atvi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/adbe",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aap",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for AES Corp (AES)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aes",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Aflac (AFL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/afl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/a",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/apd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/akam",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/alk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/alb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/are",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/alxn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/algn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/alle",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/all",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/googl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/goog",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amzn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amcr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aee",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aal",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aep",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for American Express (AXP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/axp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for American International Group (AIG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aig",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/awk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/abc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ametek (AME)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ame",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amgn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aph",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Analog Devices (ADI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/adi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"ANSYS (ANSS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/anss",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/antm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Aon plc (AON)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aon",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aos",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/apa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aapl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/amat",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aptv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/adm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/anet",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ajg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/aiz",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/t",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ato",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/adsk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/adp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/azo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/avb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/avy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bll",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bac",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bax",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bdx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/brk.b",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bby",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bio",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/biib",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/blk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ba",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bkng",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bwa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bxp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bsx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bmy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/avgo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/br",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/bf.b",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/chrw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cog",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdns",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cpb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cof",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cah",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ccl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/carr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctlt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cat",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cboe",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cbre",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CDW (CDW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cdw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Celanese (CE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ce",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cnp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cerner (CERN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cern",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cf",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/schw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/chtr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/chd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cigna (CI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ci",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cinf",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctas",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/csco",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/c",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cfg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctxs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/clx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cme",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cms",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ko",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctsh",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cma",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cag",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cop",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ed",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/stz",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/coo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cprt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/glw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ctva",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cost",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cci",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/csx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cmi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/cvs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dhr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dri",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dva",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/de",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dal",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/xray",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dvn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxcm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fang",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dlr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dfs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/disca",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Discovery (DISCK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/disck",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dish",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dollar General (DG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dltr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/d",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dpz",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dov",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dow",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dte",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/duk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dre",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dxc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/emn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/etn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ebay",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ecl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/eix",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
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},
{
"title": "Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ew",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ea",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/emr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/enph",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/etr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/eog",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/efx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqix",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/eqr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Essex Property Trust (ESS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ess",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/el",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/etsy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/evrg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/es",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/re",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/exc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/expe",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/expd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/exr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/xom",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ffiv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Facebook (FB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fast",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/frt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fdx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fis",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fitb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fe",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/frc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fisv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/flt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/flir",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fls",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fmc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/f",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftnt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ftv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fbhs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/foxa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fox",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ben",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/fcx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gps",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/grmn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/it",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for General Electric (GE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ge",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for General Mills (GIS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gis",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for General Motors (GM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gild",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gpn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/gww",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hal",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hbi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hig",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/has",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hca",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/peak",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsic",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hsy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hes",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpe",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hlt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hfc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/holx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Home Depot (HD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hon",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hrl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hst",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hwm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hpq",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hum",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hban",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/hii",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/iex",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/idxx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/info",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/itw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ilmn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Incyte (INCY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/incy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ir",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/intc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ice",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ibm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for International Paper (IP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ip",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/iff",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/intu",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/isrg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ivz",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ipgp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/iqv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/irm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/jkhy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/j",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/jbht",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/sjm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnj",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/jci",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/jpm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/jnpr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ksu",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/k",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/key",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/keys",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/kim",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/kmi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/klac",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/khc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/kr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lhx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lh",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lrcx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lvs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/leg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ldos",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/len",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lly",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lnc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lin",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lkq",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lmt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/l",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/low",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lumn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/lyb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mro",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mktx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mar",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mmc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mlm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mas",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ma",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mkc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mxim",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mcd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mck",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mrk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/met",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mtd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mgm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mchp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mu",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/msft",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/maa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mhk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tap",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mdlz",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mpwr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mnst",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mco",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ms",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/mos",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/msi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/msci",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Nasdaq (NDAQ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ndaq",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntap",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nflx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nem",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nwsa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nws",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nee",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlsn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Nike (NKE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nke",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ni",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nsc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ntrs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/noc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nlok",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nclh",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nov",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nrg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nue",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvda",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"NVR (NVR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/nvr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/orly",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/oxy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/odfl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/omc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Oneok (OKE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/oke",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/orcl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/otis",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pcar",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pkg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ph",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/payx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/payc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pypl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pbct",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pep",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pki",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/prgo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfe",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/psx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pxd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pnc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pool",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ppl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pfg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pgr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Prologis (PLD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pld",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pru",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/peg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/psa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/phm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pvh",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/qrvo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/pwr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/qcom",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dgx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rjf",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rtx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/o",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/reg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/regn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rf",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rsg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for ResMed (RMD)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rmd",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rhi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rok",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Rollins (ROL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rol",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rop",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rost",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/rcl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/spgi",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/crm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbac",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/slb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/stx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/see",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/sre",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/now",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/shw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/spg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/swks",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/slg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/sna",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Southern Company (SO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/so",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/luv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/swk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/sbux",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/stt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Steris (STE)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ste",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/syk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/sivb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/syf",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/snps",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/syy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmus",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/trow",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ttwo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Tapestry (TPR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tpr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tgt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tel",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Teradyne (TER)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ter",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Tesla (TSLA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsla",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/txn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/txt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tmo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tjx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsco",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tdg",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/trv",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/trmb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tfc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"Twitter (TWTR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/twtr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tyl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/tsn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"UDR (UDR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/udr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ulta",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/usb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/uaa",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ua",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/unp",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ual",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/unh",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/ups",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for \"United Rentals (URI)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/uri",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *\"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/uhs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/unm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vlo",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/var",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrsk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vz",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vrtx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vfc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/viac",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vtrs",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/v",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Vontier (VNT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vnt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vno",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/vmc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wab",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Walmart (WMT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmt",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wba",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/dis",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wm",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wat",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wec",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wfc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/well",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wst",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wdc",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wu",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for WestRock (WRK)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wrk",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wy",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/whr",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wmb",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wltw",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/wynn",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/xel",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Xerox (XRX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/xrx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/xlnx",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/xyl",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/yum",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbra",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/zbh",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/zion",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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{
"title": "Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/zts",
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": "A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.623Z",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
"title": "Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)",
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"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year",
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"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
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{
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT",
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"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
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},
{
"title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
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},
{
"title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:",
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{
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2016",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2017",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity in 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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"probability": 0.15,
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"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
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},
{
"title": "Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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"probability": 0.25,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives still operates in 2019",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)",
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
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{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
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"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
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"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
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},
{
"title": "No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019",
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"name": "Yes",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
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"name": "Yes",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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"name": "Yes",
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{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts",
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"name": "Yes",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up",
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"name": "Yes",
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{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in",
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"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
{
"title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so",
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"description": "(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (\"Phase 2\")",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "This grant does not lead to any new top charities.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"title": "Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.",
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"title": "Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.",
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"title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.",
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"title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.",
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"description": "Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",
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"title": "Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.",
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"title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.",
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"title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.",
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"title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.",
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"title": "A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.",
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{
"title": "By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project",
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"title": "By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.",
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"title": "By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025",
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{
"title": "By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025",
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{
"title": "We recommend a second grant to CPSP",
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"description": "Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
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"title": "Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
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"description": "Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
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"title": "Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.",
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"title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban",
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"title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
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"title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
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"title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell makes another grant to IGI",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health becomes a top charity.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives",
"url": "https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%",
"url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts",
"platform": "GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy",
"description": "Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-02-23T15∶21∶37.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the Federal Reserve announce it will taper its monthly quantitative easing bond purchases?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, are expected to taper down <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/the-fed-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-campaign-to-prepare-markets-for-tapering-its-asset-purchases.html\" target=\"_blank\">eventually</a>. The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\">FOMC</a>. As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">increasing</a> its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month.\" The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month, irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities being purchased. The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo <a href=\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements\" target=\"_blank\">operations</a> are immaterial.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 23 September 2021",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23 September 2021 and 15 December 2021",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 16 December 2021 and 16 March 2022",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 17 March 2022 and 15 June 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 16 June 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:48.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1508\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c6c4cc\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 11 June 2021<br>\n <br>\n The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed\n securities, begun early in the pandemic, are expected to taper down <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/07/the-fed-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-campaign-to-prepare-markets-for-tapering-its-asset-purchases.html\" target=\"_blank\">eventually</a>.\n The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the\n <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\">FOMC</a>.\n As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was <a href=\"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a.htm\" target=\"_blank\">increasing</a>\n its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and\n of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month.\"\n The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month,\n irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency\n mortgage-backed securities being purchased. The date a reduction would\n take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the\n labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or\n reverse repo <a href=\"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements\" target=\"_blank\">operations</a>\n are immaterial.<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 26 July 2021 - The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and\n mortgage-backed securities, resumed early in the pandemic, are expected to\n taper down eventually. According to Good Judgment's Superforecasters, the\n announcement is likely to come \"sooner rather than later,\" with a\n statement around the 21-22 September, 2-3 November, or 14-15 December 2021\n FOMC meeting the most likely outcome (currently 98% probability in total).<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 24 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The next FOMC meeting after September is in\n November--perhaps too late to allow lengthy notice prior to the start of\n the taper.<br>\n </em><br>\n 20 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Based on Fed Chairman Powell's recent <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-powell-says-economy-a-ways-off-bond-taper-inflation-ease-2021-07-14/\" target=\"_blank\">remarks</a>\n to Congress, increasing the probability of the \"between 23 September\n 2021 and 15 December 2021\" timeline. I would expect more remarks to\n prepare the market if a QE tapering announcement were to be coming in\n the next two months.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Barclays is <a href=\"https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/07/15/what-does-the-federal-reserve-mean-when-it-talks-about-tapering/amp/\" target=\"_blank\">anticipating</a>\n the Fed will begin tapering its asset purchases as soon as this year.\n I'm leaning toward an announcement in September. Reason? They will want\n to do tapering before they raise rates. If they announce in September,\n they can work out the details in November and start soon thereafter.\n They can then gauge the effect for a couple of quarters and by mid-2022\n raise rates if inflation stays high.</em><br>\n <br>\n 15 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The high inflation data and low bond yields give\n the Fed a golden opportunity to announce the intent to start tapering.\n The taper itself should begin by the end of Q4. The timing of the\n announcement is a little tricky. There may not be enough consensus to\n make the announcement at the upcoming FOMC this month. Powell seemed <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-15/fed-s-bullard-urges-start-of-tapering-bonds-with-jobs-goals-met\" target=\"_blank\">tentative</a>\n in comments this week. Bullard and others have been calling for taper.\n However, as the next meeting after July is not until September, I also\n don't think there is an upside in waiting until then (which could mean\n two more months of bad inflation data without action, and perhaps cause\n a backup in longer yields).</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Mary Daley <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-07-02/feds-daly-appropriate-to-consider-tapering-later-this-year\" target=\"_blank\">suggests</a>\n the Fed should begin slowing bond purchases \"later this year or early\n next.\" The Economist covers a possible <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/07/01/does-americas-hot-housing-market-still-need-propping-up\" target=\"_blank\">strategy</a>\n for a reduction in purchases of mortgage backed assets.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The headline inflation number will have to enter\n into the Fed's calculations. \"Before 23 September 2021\" therefore\n becomes more likely.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Higher inflation number again today. More likely\n now the Fed will announce early to prepare markets for the tapering next\n year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>It will happen, but when? Leaning a bit more to\n the November meeting. They like to give the market a <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-says-he-would-not-rule-out-2022-rate-hike-2021-06-29/\" target=\"_blank\">long</a>\n <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-debate-scaling-back-mortgage-bond-purchases-at-faster-clip-11624872602\" target=\"_blank\">heads-up</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Generally focusing on \"Before 23 September 2021\"\n and \"Between 23 September 2021 and 15 December 2021\" for now, but there\n may be a longer tail on this if inflation and recovery prove to be more\n transitory.</em><br>\n <br>\n 18 Jun 21 - Barclays moves <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/barclays-moves-up-expectations-for-fed-tapering-after-fomc-meeting-11623959423\" target=\"_blank\">up</a>\n expectations for Fed tapering after FOMC meeting. Comment: <em>I expect\n they will in September. Next <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434721-fed-starting-campaign-to-taper-asset-purchases\" target=\"_blank\">meetings</a>\n are 21-22 September and 2-3 November.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>It appears Powell wants to give 2-3 months'\n advance notice. I don't see much reason for QE right now: asset prices\n and credit risk appetite aren't the problem (as they were after\n 2008-09), but to a Fed economist with a hammer everything looks like a\n nail. Economists may want to see what happens after extended\n unemployment benefits run out in September. Whether Biden's budget\n including many expansive new spending programs gets passed will also\n have an impact on timing. I think early Q1 of next year is the likeliest\n timeframe for tapering QE, which means an announcement probably in Q4 of\n this year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Fed says first taper discussions started in\n April. With the economy growing, inflation higher, increased reserves\n interest rate at the central bank, taper is just a matter of time. More\n important may be the initial decrease from the current purchase $120b in\n Treasurys and MBS assets. Lower decreases over longer periods of time\n (or even the extrapolation from a single data point) would be more\n market-friendly. Perhaps the sooner the Fed announces a small reduction\n in purchases, the sooner the market will get past the inevitable\n overreaction to the reduced purchases. I expect the announcement will be\n prior to year end.</em><br>\n <br>\n 15 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>A lot of the <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-investors-are-watching-fed-taper-talk-inflation-2021-06-15/\" target=\"_blank\">coverage</a>\n I'm seeing has the flavor of something like this <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-investors-are-watching-fed-taper-talk-inflation-2021-06-15/\" target=\"_blank\">happening</a>\n sooner rather than later.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Seems like early <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/21/the-federal-reserves-so-called-taper-talk-could-keep-markets-on-edge-through-the-summer.html\" target=\"_blank\">discussions</a>\n in June and July will be followed by a strategy in <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-could-pencil-in-earlier-rate-increase-at-meeting-11623663001\" target=\"_blank\">August</a>\n and an announcement of tapering in the <a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/poll-fed-to-announce-qe-taper-in-aug-or-sept-on-rising-inflation-concerns-2021-06-10\" target=\"_blank\">fall</a>--several\n months in advance of when it is due to start--to minimize the impact on\n markets.</em><em></em><em></em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr> <br><center><input type=\"button\" id=\"btn1508\" style=\"font-size:14pt;background:#8a2535;color:white;border-radius:5px;\" value=\"Close Superforecaster Analysis\" onclick=\"showReport(1508);\"></center></div><br>"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 23 September 2021, Between 23 September 2021 and 15 December 2021, Between 16 December 2021 and 16 March 2022, Between 17 March 2022 and 15 June 2022, Not before 16 June 2022"
},
{
"title": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the US experience two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter (advance, second, and third), and the release dates can be found at <a href=\"https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule\" target=\"_blank\">www.bea.gov/news/schedule</a>. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for all quarters, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and, if necessary, the advance estimate for 2022 Q4, which is expected in mid-January 2023. The third estimate for Q4 2020 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of <a href=\"https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-4th-quarter-and\" target=\"_blank\">4.3</a> percent. Prior to the question's launch, the last time the quarter-on-quarter US GDP growth rate was negative was <a href=\"https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp-industry-annual\" target=\"_blank\">Q2</a> 2020.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:48.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1505\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c6b4be\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 11 June 2021<br>\n <br>\n The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each\n quarter (advance, second, and third), and the release dates can be found\n at <a href=\"https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule\" target=\"_blank\">www.bea.gov/news/schedule</a>.\n This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for all\n quarters, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and,\n if necessary, the advance estimate for 2022 Q4, which is expected in\n mid-January 2023. The third estimate for Q4 2020 indicated that real GDP\n increased at an annual rate of <a href=\"https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-4th-quarter-and\" target=\"_blank\">4.3</a>\n percent. Prior to the question's launch, the last time the\n quarter-on-quarter US GDP growth rate was negative was <a href=\"https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp-industry-annual\" target=\"_blank\">Q2</a>\n 2020.<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 26 July 2021 - Many economic growth projections for 2021-2022 are\n currently positive. Good Judgment's Superforecasters agree that \"zero\n quarters of negative real GDP growth\" is the most likely scenario\n (currently 97% probability) given historical trends, current recovery, and\n pent-up demand. The Superforecasters reserve a 2% probability for\n short-term factors, such as a new spike in COVID-19, that could trigger\n \"at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth.\"<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 21 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>One quarter is possible--lots of uncertainty\n with Covid still. Besides, a huge bounce quarter followed by a stall\n could easily render one quarter negative.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Looking at historical GDP data (1947-current),\n the only example of a large GDP decline followed closely by a\n two-quarter recession was 1980-81, generally caused by Volker's rate\n hikes to reduce inflation. Therefore, low expectation of a recession\n during the next year and a half. Fed may start to reduce bond purchases\n and even add a quarter point or two of rate increases, although nothing\n that would induce a 1980s-style recession. Additional infrastructure\n spending and a Democrat spending bill also reduce the odds.<br>\n </em><br>\n 17 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Low probability of a recession based on the\n massive amount of federal stimulus already approved and the trillions\n more I expect to be approved in the next month or so.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>With potentially high inflation and/or stimulus\n cutting off, I could see something unexpected happening, but all\n economic indicators look solid for now and there are still potential\n avenues for more gov't spending.<br>\n </em><br>\n 03 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>With trillions of dollars in stimulus, two\n quarters in a row with negative real GDP growth at first sight looks\n nearly impossible. Could we see one quarter of negative growth?\n Normally, not, but: (1) we've had it happening in Q1 and Q2 2020, and\n we're still in troubled times; (2) this is quarter-on-quarter, so (a)\n seasonal effects or (b) a high base in the previous quarter make it\n possible to have at least one such quarter among the next 6 ones.</em><br>\n <br>\n 18 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Growth seems likely, but there are several\n possibilities that might cause at least one quarter of negative growth.\n Potential problem areas include inflation getting out of hand, drop in\n spending as Covid stimulus money goes away, Covid variants creating\n problems, labor issues not resolving in the fall as expected, and the\n ubiquitous political tensions.<br>\n </em><br>\n 18 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Two successive quarters implies a recession,\n which is not being forecast by anyone at present. One quarter is,\n however, more likely as one can envisage some short-term factors,\n particularly Covid-related.<br>\n </em><br>\n 17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Very unlikely given the nature of the recovery\n so far. Allowing some points for Covid (or another virus) reasserting\n itself and other gray swans.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>The only thing that could push a negative real\n GDP growth would be one of the variants putting the US into a stance\n like it was in March/April 2020. Possible, but not likely, especially\n with the vaccination effort. It'd take a whole new pandemic to make this\n resolve with one or two negative quarters.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Even if the Fed starts raising rates in 2022, I\n cannot imagine it generating a recession with all the proposed\n infrastructure spending and pent-up demand for housing, travel, and\n living life.</em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr> <br><center><input type=\"button\" id=\"btn1505\" style=\"font-size:14pt;background:#8a2535;color:white;border-radius:5px;\" value=\"Close Superforecaster Analysis\" onclick=\"showReport(1505);\"></center></div><br>"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No, but there will be at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth, No, and there will be zero quarters of negative real GDP growth"
},
{
"title": "Between 21 April 2021 and 30 September 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The future of COVID-19 is an open <a href=\"https://www.govexec.com/management/2021/02/1918-pandemic-provides-warning-about-covid-19s-future/172078/\" target=\"_blank\">question</a>, as \"next <a href=\"https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/viral-mutations-may-cause-another-very-very-bad-covid-19-wave-scientists-warn\" target=\"_blank\">waves</a>\" remain possible. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO in its global data file (<a href=\"https://covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv\" target=\"_blank\">covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv</a>). ). In the downloaded CSV file, sum the \"New_cases\" column data that correspond to \"United States of America\" under \"Country\" by date. Seven-day medians will be calculated from those data. The question will resolve using the data available no later than 4 October 2021, though the question would close early if requisite data indicate a seven-day median greater than the highest bin as of at least 14 calendar days after the date of all pertinent data. As of 19 April 2021, the WHO data indicated that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US was 277,195 in January 2021 (<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO-COVID-19-global-data_19_April_2021.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\">goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO-COVID-19-global-data_19_April_2021.xlsx</a>).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 90,000",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 90,000 and 140,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 140,000 but fewer than 210,000",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 210,000 and 300,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 300,000",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:48.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1481\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c6344e\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 21 April 2021<br>\n <br>\n The future of COVID-19 is an open <a href=\"https://www.govexec.com/management/2021/02/1918-pandemic-provides-warning-about-covid-19s-future/172078/\" target=\"_blank\">question</a>,\n as \"next <a href=\"https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/viral-mutations-may-cause-another-very-very-bad-covid-19-wave-scientists-warn\" target=\"_blank\">waves</a>\"\n remain possible. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by\n WHO in its global data file (<a href=\"https://covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv\" target=\"_blank\">covid19.who.int/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv</a>).\n ). In the downloaded CSV file, sum the \"New_cases\" column data that\n correspond to \"United States of America\" under \"Country\" by date.\n Seven-day medians will be calculated from those data. The question will\n resolve using the data available no later than 4 October 2021, though the\n question would close early if requisite data indicate a seven-day median\n greater than the highest bin as of at least 14 calendar days after the\n date of all pertinent data. As of 19 April 2021, the WHO data indicated\n that the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19\n in the US was 277,195 in January 2021 (<a href=\"https://goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO-COVID-19-global-data_19_April_2021.xlsx\" target=\"_blank\">goodjudgment.io/docs/WHO-COVID-19-global-data_19_April_2021.xlsx</a>).<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 27 July 2021 - The future of COVID-19 is an open question, with a \"fourth\n wave\" underway in some countries. Good Judgment's professional\n Superforecasters point out that more than 48% of the US population are now\n fully vaccinated, but due to the declining pace in inoculations, it\n remains a race between new variants and continued vaccine rollout. Another\n major determinant is vaccine efficacy against existing and yet-to-emerge\n mutations. The Superforecasters are looking at the sharply rising cases in\n the UK due to the Delta variant, the issues of testing and reporting, and\n vaccine hesitancy, and see a declining (currently 37%) probability that\n the highest seven-day median of daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in\n the US between 21 April 2021 and 30 September 2021 will be fewer than\n 90,000.<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 26 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The latest wave is largely a regional one. My\n forecast is that cases will plateau short of 90k and remain high for a\n while.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>According to NYT, 14-day change is up +172%. We\n could hit 90k in the next week or two. On the other hand, vaccinations\n are <a href=\"https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-07-22/vaccinations-rise-in-some-states-with-soaring-infections\" target=\"_blank\">\n rising</a> in some states with rising infections. This probably won't\n impact case numbers for another week or two.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The new wave in the US was starting from a low\n level, and it's summer. Last summer wasn't over 100k, and this summer\n more people are vaccinated. But a big difference is that any\n restrictions on movement/activities are likely to be minimal and\n possibly not heeded by precisely the group of people who are most likely\n to get sick.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>From the situation in Europe (which right now is\n roughly comparable to the US in vaccination rates), there are a few\n patterns that might be emerging and are worth noticing: (1) UK seems to\n be past the Delta peak, which has reached about 75-80% the size of the\n previous peak. (2) Netherlands might have also passed the Delta peak,\n which seems to be of about 85% the size of their previous largest peak.\n (3) Portugal seems to be reaching the peak, where the size is about 27%\n of their largest peak. However, they reimposed restrictions a few weeks\n ago. (4) Gibraltar seems to have reached the peak too, but it's unclear\n owing to the small sampling size; the Delta peak is about 24% of their\n largest peak.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The 7-day average has more than tripled over the\n last three weeks. Even if growth in case numbers were linear, we would\n get over 90k cases by early September. But if cases continue growing\n exponentially, we will be over 90k cases in 2 weeks. In the UK, which is\n more vaccinated than the US--and 5 to 6 weeks ahead of the US in this\n current wave--cases/million are nearly 6 times as high as they are in\n the US. On that basis, it's not hard to imagine that the US could hit\n 250k cases/day again.</em><br>\n <br>\n 18 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>I'm skeptical there will be more than 140k cases\n not because we don't have time to reach that number, but because the\n ceiling on the number of cases/day we can reach may be less than 140k.\n These cases are largely among the unvaccinated. We had something like\n 250k cases/day during the worst spike when very few people in the US\n were vaccinated or otherwise immune. At this point, around half the US\n population has been vaccinated and about 2/3 of the population may be\n immune. So 140k cases/day now would be a larger fraction of the\n population without immunity than US had during Covid's worst peak.</em><br>\n Response: <em>If we were close to a case ceiling, we might not be seeing\n such rapid growth now. We topped out at 250k cases/day when most people\n were taking a lot of preventative measures and with a variant that\n didn't spread as easily as Delta. The increase in infectiousness may\n offset most of the immunity gained from vaccination so far. Are people\n going to readopt a lot of the precautions they took last year? Probably,\n especially if deaths rise. But maybe not until case counts get much\n higher.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>We're seeing a recent case spike, with R\n probably pushing 1.3 after staying 1.0-1.1 for about 2 weeks.<br>\n </em><br>\n 11 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The UK may offer a rough preview of where the US\n will be in 6 weeks, since the US is about that time behind the UK in\n both the spread of Delta and in vaccinations. The US is about 5 times\n the population of the UK, which is over 30k cases/day now. It's not hard\n to imagine that the US could hit 150k cases/day before the end of\n August. In fact, it's hard to see why things would turn out differently\n in the US without a new lockdown or a major surge in vaccinations,\n neither of which seems very likely in this timeframe.<br>\n </em><br>\n 10 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Cases are up but still a long way from 90k.\n However, they can continue to increase in unvaccinated areas, and kids\n under 12 might push the numbers up in the fall when they return to\n school.<br>\n </em><br>\n 09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>UK is at around 1/2 its winter peak, and has a\n higher percentage of people vaccinated than the US. So, given that it\n looks like we are starting the climb up again, changing my forecast\n substantially.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Apparently the Delta variant already accounts\n for 50% of US cases. The most likely outcome then is that the US should\n follow the path of other similar countries: (1) the UK, where the mean\n (not the median, but I will use it as a proxy) is already at 28k cases,\n from 2k just 2 months ago; (2) Spain, with a sudden jump to 14k mean\n cases, from 4k cases 2 weeks ago; (3) France, from 2k to 3k mean cases\n in just one week, etc. Extra factor: Every peak has been larger than the\n previous one. Part of this is improved testing, but a second factor is\n the improved virus. Due to its recent appearance and natural selection,\n Covid seems to not have reached yet its maximum transmissibility\n potential (maybe the Delta variant represents its apotheosis, maybe\n not). I would thus not be at all surprised if the Delta wave surpasses\n the third one. Factor against reaching 90k are time and geography: There\n might be not enough time to reach 90k, or owing to the size of the US,\n the Delta wave could be more evenly spread in time, leading to a lower\n but much more sustained wave.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>\"Fewer than 90,000\" is the top answer choice.\n The only possible way for a different outcome is a fourth wave with the\n Delta variant. This is happening right now in the UK, despite a high\n degree of vaccination. While the vaccine mix is different in the UK than\n in the US, which could represent a qualitative difference between the\n two countries, I think that this conclusion would be incorrect for two\n reasons: (1) percentage of vaccinated population and (2) effectiveness\n of the vaccines against the Delta variant. Both factors lead to a very\n similar picture of resistance against Delta in both countries. However,\n the moment we take into account that not everyone in the UK has been\n vaccinated with AZ, then the immunity level of the UK easily surpasses\n that of the US. We should add to this the natural immunity, but for the\n moment let's assume it is similar in both cases. The next problem is the\n potential size of the hypothetical Delta wave: The UK is already at 30%\n the size of the previous peak and it is still growing. If this happens\n too in the US, one should get about 250k times 0.3, which is about 75k\n cases a day. But then: (1) the UK wave has not reached its max size yet;\n (2) the US wave could be much more extended in time/space or happen\n after the question is closed; (3) what happens in other vaccinated\n countries (particularly in Europe) in the following weeks could give an\n extra clue; (4) the Delta variant is more transmissible and is\n apparently able to infect one outdoors.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Shifting because of what is going on in the UK,\n which has comparable vaccination rates, with the Delta variant.</em><br>\n <br>\n 24 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Cases in the UK roughly quadrupled over the last\n month, which suggests we must account for a risk of a sudden surge. On\n the other hand, quadrupling of US cases only takes us to 44k cases. The\n question is whether public health officials, politicians, and the public\n would be willing and able to respond with going back to more social\n distancing and other restrictions to prevent a bigger new wave.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>CDC says 45.1% of population have been fully\n vaccinated. Delta variant is more infectious, and one shot only gives\n 30% protection. This could drive the number of cases up.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>The US remains near a local minimum in weekly\n cases after 99,103 new cases 2 weeks ago, down from 345k 6 weeks ago.\n Variants are a threat as the US relaxes pandemic restriction. Rapid\n spikes in cases routinely occur locally as well as at continental level.\n Leaving 5% for a rapid US increase as variants spread as testing is\n reduced and pandemic restrictions are reduced/eliminated over the next\n few weeks.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>I am paying attention to spike in UK and would\n not be surprised to see cases rise off their lows in the US later in the\n summer into early September. The US may be better equipped to handle\n Delta than the UK because the greater mix of mRNA vaccines administered\n in the US may work to the US's advantage. If UK case numbers spike to\n over ~12k/day, I will revisit my forecast.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Hoping that vaccinations and summer keep this\n low, but still worried about Delta variant. Also, at least locally,\n cases appear to have plateaued and may be on the way up again (from a\n low level). Delta variant now a \"variant of <a href=\"https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/15/health/delta-variant-of-concern-cdc-coronavirus/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">concern</a>\"\n in the US and in circulation at roughly the same level as it was at\n tipping point in the UK.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Cases in the US seem to be plateauing around\n 14k. The UK, despite a high vaccination rate, is seeing a <a href=\"https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/558105-delta-variants-uk-dominance-sparks-concerns-in-us\" target=\"_blank\">spike</a>\n in cases from the Delta variant. This variant is expected to become\n dominant in the US in the next few weeks.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>New infections continue to drop, and jabs\n continue to slow to about 1mn/day in the US. Today about 41% of the\n adult population is fully vaccinated-- a long hill to climb to reach\n 75%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Infections continue to decline as vaccinations\n continue to increase. While all the reopening, residual unvaccinated and\n possible spread of new variants (e.g., Vietnam) may cause some upswing,\n another big spike seems extremely unlikely.<br>\n </em><br>\n 31 May 21 - Comment: <em>Vaccine hesitancy in the US leaves space for\n another wave, particularly in some regions. But we're not seeing much\n sign of a new wave yet, and if there were a new wave, the peak might be\n relatively low given how many people have already been vaccinated.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 May 21 - Comment: <em>Cases continue to drop. The US cases/day is\n around 30k, despite a new variant present in all 50 states. The number\n of Covid tests/day is also dropping. With vaccines and people who\n previously contracted Covid, testing is likely to decline. Summer also\n moves people outdoors where it is less likely to spread.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 May 21 - Comment: <em>I still think the risk of a local surge\n following easing of restrictions, potentially combined with virus\n mutations, could take this above 90,000.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 May 21 - Comment: <em>CDC's mask advice could add to the potential for\n another surge this summer.</em><br>\n <br>\n 18 May 21 - Comment: <em>Rates continue steady decline. Mask restrictions\n being lifted is somewhat concerning, but many states lifted them months\n ago without major increase in cases, and vaccinations plus past exposure\n continue to grow.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 May 21 - Comment: <em>Cases are trending down almost 30% in the last\n 14 days despite variants being present in all <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html\" target=\"_blank\">50</a>\n states. A new variant could pop up in India with the current outbreak,\n so this could change. But currently, only 2 states are on the increase.\n September may be tricky as schools start up again, but the hope is that\n in the next 3 months a significant number of college-age students will\n get vaccinated.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 May 21 - Comment: <em>The FDA approved Pfizer's request for <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/pfizer-covid-vaccine-fda-clears-use-in-kids-ages-12-to-15.html\" target=\"_blank\">EUA</a>\n for ages 12 to 15. As of yesterday, 46% of US has received at least one\n dose, with 34.8% fully vaccinated.</em><br>\n <br>\n 08 May 21 - Comment: <em>US new cases continue to decline, 43,991/day\n using 7-day average.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 May 21 - Comment: <em>I think the risk of a surge from lifting of\n restrictions and more infectious variants is higher than 10%. CDC\n projects a <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/cdc-projects-a-surge-in-us-covid-cases-through-may-due-to-bpoint1point1point7-variant-before-a-sharp-decline-.html\" target=\"_blank\">peak</a>\n in May and a sharp decline of case counts after that.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 May 21 - Comment: <em>With children now account for <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/03/993141036/children-now-account-for-22-of-new-u-s-covid-cases-why-is-that\" target=\"_blank\">22%</a>\n of new US COVID cases, it is good news that the FDA \"is poised to\n authorize Pfizer/BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine in children and teens\n ages 12 to 15 by early next week.\"<br>\n </em><br>\n 03 May 21 - Comment: <em>We might be able to stay under 90k for a 7-day\n median, even if there are days that are over. We'll probably see\n isolated waves similar to the recent one that affect parts of the US but\n potentially not the entire US.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 May 21 - Comment: <em>Cases continue to fall slowly. Many states have\n already removed restrictions without a major uptick in cases.<br>\n </em><br>\n 29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>This question mostly boils down to whether there\n will be large regions of the US that fail to vaccinate enough of their\n population to reach herd immunity the easy way. I can't imagine that\n vaccine-hesitant regions are going to maintain distancing measures very\n well in a few months - they're going to get to herd immunity one way or\n another; it's just a question of how many infections it will take to get\n there.<br>\n </em><br>\n 28 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>90,000 cases this summer seems like a stretch\n given that a clear majority of the population (60%-70%) will soon be\n fully vaccinated. The unvaccinated, those with weaker immune systems,\n and new variants will keep daily cases higher than we would like but not\n that high.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>As of yesterday, 42.5% of US has received at\n least one dose, with 28.9% full vaccinated. Based on growing\n inoculations, I expect a \"fewer than 90,000\" or \"between 90,000 and\n 140,000, inclusive\" resolution, barring a new virile variant.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>I don't think there will be nearly as many\n deaths as earlier waves, but I expect the infection rate to go a lot\n higher than it is now. Instructive is the experience of NY and NJ, which\n had high attack rates and relatively high number of people infected in\n previous waves. In the wave last winter, they had moderate to high\n infection rates but very low death rates. Of course, one has to consider\n that, if the death rates are low, states may pull back on testing.<br>\n </em><br>\n 24 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The 7-day average today was 60,183 and the\n direction of the new cases curve is slightly downward.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>I think the vaccination rates are beating the\n race with the variants. The weather is getting warmer and for the\n duration of this timeframe, the majority of the population will spend\n time outdoors. New cases appear to be, at best, slightly dropping, and,\n at worse, plateauing.<br>\n </em><br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Three scenarios: (1) Strong herd immunity will\n be reached during the timeframe of the question; no threatening virus\n mutations emerge (10% probability). (2) Current trajectory: Decent\n vaccination speed, re-opening of businesses, and decreased social\n distancing (80% probability). (3) A more infectious or vaccine resistant\n mutation emerges (10% probability).</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Currently, \"fewer than 90,000\" appears most\n likely. Possible reasons for a different development: (1) mutations of\n the virus; (2) opening up; (3) complacency; (4) not enough inoculations\n to achieve (at least partial) herd immunity.<br>\n </em><br>\n 22 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The question is the max amplitude of this fourth\n wave as the country races to vaccinate younger people. The current\n fourth wave appears to have plateaued for the moment as there are few\n large gathering or travel events. It could rise again with Memorial Day\n travel and summer travel holidays.<br>\n </em><br>\n <br>\n <hr> <br><center><input type=\"button\" id=\"btn1481\" style=\"font-size:14pt;background:#8a2535;color:white;border-radius:5px;\" value=\"Close Superforecaster Analysis\" onclick=\"showReport(1481);\"></center></div><br>"
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 90,000, Between 90,000 and 140,000, inclusive, More than 140,000 but fewer than 210,000, Between 210,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000"
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{
"title": "When will 265 million people in the US be fully vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Estimates <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html\" target=\"_blank\">vary</a> for how many people need to be vaccinated to achieve <a href=\"https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think\" target=\"_blank\">herd immunity</a> in the US. The 80% level is approximately 265 million people. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the CDC, utilizing the \"Total\" line of the \"Fully Vaccinated\" column of the agency's COVID-19 Vaccinations webpage (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\" target=\"_blank\">covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations</a>).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 March 2022",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:48.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1489\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c65f1e\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 30 April 2021<br>\n <br>\n Estimates <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html\" target=\"_blank\">vary</a>\n for how many people need to be vaccinated to achieve <a href=\"https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think\" target=\"_blank\">herd\n immunity</a> in the US. The 80% level is approximately 265 million\n people. The outcome will be determined using data reported by the CDC,\n utilizing the \"Total\" line of the \"Fully Vaccinated\" column of the\n agency's COVID-19 Vaccinations webpage (<a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\" target=\"_blank\">covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations</a>).<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 26 July 2021 - If 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to achieve\n herd immunity, according to some studies, when will the US reach this\n threshold? Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters as a group see a\n 99% probability this will not happen before spring 2022. Vaccine supply\n and logistics are no longer the stumbling block. What the US may lack, the\n Superforecasters say, is the motivation among some population groups to\n get vaccinated. The Superforecasters point out, however, that new spikes\n in infections, requirement of vaccination for college, sporting events,\n etc., or a creative incentive policy from the federal or local governments\n could cause their forecast to change.<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 24 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>There's a small chance the recent uptick in\n cases may put pressure on approval for kids under 12 and change the mind\n of the vaccine hesitant population.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The only hope was vaccinations in under\n 12-year-olds, and that is pushed back until 2022.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>At the current rate, it will take 9 months more\n to get to 75% coverage.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Will Delta reinvigorate the vaccination rate?\n Unlikely, as it would seem that most people have made a decision by now.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Pfizer is <a href=\"https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210702/pfizer-seeking-vaccination-approval-for-ages-5-to-11-years-old-by-fall\" target=\"_blank\">expected</a>\n to ask for approval for under 12-year-olds at end of September or in\n October. That might start rolling in November or December. Moderna is\n applying for EUA for 12- to 17-year-olds.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The timeline for beginning vaccinations of kids\n under 12 has been pushed back to <a href=\"https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/vaccines-kids-under-age-12-expected-mid-winter-fda-official-n1274057\" target=\"_blank\">2022</a>.\n That's 50mn people who will continue to be ineligible.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The CDC <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-science-health-education-coronavirus-pandemic-a65c9c0375ce441fcd10866eb8ea990b\" target=\"_blank\">didn't</a>\n recommend the requirement of vaccines for returning to school. There may\n still be a recommendation on this as we get closer to school year (but\n that's only 5-6 weeks away for US students).</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>WaPo poll says 29% will not get the vaccine.\n Those numbers haven't moved at all. Plus, federal and state governments\n have little appetite for mandatory vaccinations.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>11.5mn first doses in the last month, compared\n to 20mn in the month before. Starting at 183.5mn, we would need 7 more\n months to get 265mn first shots, and then another month for second\n shots. This would already put us very close to March 2022, without any\n further reductions in the vaccination rate.</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>In the last two weeks, some of the\n news/indicators point to an increasingly unlikely chance that this will\n happen at all. I'm trying to imagine into the future in September or\n October and a variant is starting to rip through more communities in the\n US. Maybe there're many deaths in these communities that are\n under-vaccinated, or maybe the CDC makes it easier for kids to get\n vaccinated and/or requires it for in-person school. I still think\n there's &gt;6% chance that this resolves before March 2022.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Only 40% of US population is fully vaccinated\n now. Vaccinations down to 1.2mn/ day. I doubt the US will ever get to\n 80%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Naive extrapolation of current numbers seems to\n yield a bit more than 4 months until resolution. However, it looks like\n despite recent upticks in vaccination numbers, 60+% of administered\n doses at this point are second doses. Assuming that J&amp;J does not\n play a big role, this would indicate a further drop in the overall daily\n numbers soon, if demand for first doses stayed constant.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>The holding off on vaccinating kids abroad\n certainly increases the likelihood that the US would follow suit. I do\n wonder about the state of variants when the seasons change and\n everyone's back \"indoors\" later this calendar year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Jun 21 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-ministers-be-advised-against-mass-vaccination-children-telegraph-2021-06-15/\" target=\"_blank\">UK</a>\n is joining Germany in holding off on vaccinating children. To my mind,\n this further muddies waters, making mass vaccination at anything\n approaching 80% in the US highly unlikely. <a href=\"https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/marty-makary/93029\" target=\"_blank\">Here</a>'s\n a good summary of why some in the medical community are not eager to\n vaccinate children at this point.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>The CDC says that 143.9mn people have been fully\n vaccinated. 173.8mn people have received at least one dose. That means\n we need somewhere between 121mn and 212mn more doses. At our current\n rate of 1.1mn doses/day, it will until October to reach 121m doses\n given. It will take until late November or early December to get to the\n number of doses that more realistically needs to be given. But I remain\n skeptical that is likely. Although there has been a small increase in\n the rate of vaccines given over the last two weeks, the rate has\n otherwise been steadily declining since mid-April. If vaccines for young\n children are approved, I expect we could see a substantial temporary\n increase, but even with new promotions--in Hawaii I could win a free\n trip to Vegas--I don't think the current rate is sustainable over the\n next 6 months.<br>\n </em><br>\n 06 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>School admission requirements may lead to higher\n vaccination rates this autumn. If herd immunity is achieved without\n significant vaccinations for children 12 years and younger, however, the\n \"Not before 1 March 2022\" answer option becomes extremely unlikely.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Vaccination rates keep dropping. It would be\n possible to get 265mn people vaccinated if policymakers and businesses\n tried hard enough, but until the winter, Covid is likely to be a lot\n less salient as case numbers keep dropping. And once around 70% are\n vaccinated, the arguments for why more people should get vaccinated will\n become more and more complicated and contingent.<br>\n </em><br>\n 03 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>A severe fall/winter wave among the unvaccinated\n quarter of the population will concentrate the mind. It will also prompt\n the Biden administration to redouble its mass vaccination efforts.\n Meanwhile, government, at the federal and state level, is pulling out\n all the stops, from \"Shots at the Shop\" to lottery tickets to free beer.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 May 21 - Comment: <em>According to Bloomberg, the US is on a pace to\n reach 75% \"coverage\" by the beginning of November. That's a less\n ambitious goal, and reaching even that goal has been getting further and\n further away as the pace of vaccinations has slowed. I think the\n vaccination rate will eventually stabilize, but likely at a much lower\n rate than it is now.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 May 21 - Comment: <em>Rationales why vaccinating 265mn is possible and\n can happen before March next year: (1) Mobile vaccination sites to reach\n the 30mn who say they were unable to get vaccinated because of access or\n inconvenience; (2) Full FDA approval, which will make it easier to\n mandate vaccines for travel, employment, schooling, and military\n service; (3) EUA for kids under 12, which would add roughly 25mn to the\n total; (4) Localized but severe outbreaks in the fall, which will\n convince some holdouts to finally get the vaccine. That said, I do think\n that 15% of the adult population are unpersuadable.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 May 21 - Comment: <em>If teen vaccinations and incentivized adult\n vaccinations can continue at the current rate, reaching this number in\n fall 2021 may have a chance. If the program fizzles after June, the\n later timelines are most likely. The bar at \"fully vaccinated\" is still\n very high, however.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 May 21 - Comment: <em>US vaccination rates have stopped dropping and\n appear more stable at 1,828,114 doses/day average. Assume 280mn doses/2\n = 140mn people fully vaccinated. Jabbing at 1.8mn/day, it will take 140\n days to fully vaccinate the remaining 125mn people. What may throttle\n this outcome? (1) reluctant patients; (2) vaccination centers shut down;\n (3) supply bottlenecks. If the daily rate slows to 1mn/day, that would\n require 250 days or 8.2 months.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 May 21 - Comment: <em>Approximately 125.5mn fully vaccinated as of\n today--which is almost 48% of the adult population. <a href=\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-vaccine-hesitancy-opinion-poll/\" target=\"_blank\">Six</a>\n in 10 Americans say they will get vaccinated or report having received\n at least one dose. That leaves four in 10 who say \"maybe\" (18%) or \"no\"\n outright (22%).</em><br>\n <br>\n 18 May 21 - Comment: <em>Vaccinating the maybes, college students,\n children, and those whose problem is access, not hesitancy, will get us\n into the 75%-80% range, likely by November or December. Among the hard\n cases, quite a few will get vaccinated by trusted physicians or\n pharmacists come flu season. Social pressure from a public frustrated by\n a continued plateauing of cases/deaths despite mass vaccinations will\n also play a role in putting us over the top. So will targeted outreach\n campaigns. Full approval of vaccines will give schools, businesses, and\n the military the authority to mandate vaccines among students,\n employees, and service men and women, respectively. Yes, the rate is\n declining, but I would be surprised if it didn't increase substantially\n in late summer/early fall. We'll have three events driving that\n increase: the beginning of the flu season, the start of the school year,\n and EUA for using the Pfizer vaccine on younger kids.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 May 21 - Comment: <em>The trends for vaccination by <a href=\"https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographics-trends\" target=\"_blank\">age</a>\n group show that rates are still going up in all age groups, though\n they've slowed down quite a bit in those over 65 and over 75. One thing\n that makes me hesitate to say this will happen sooner rather than later\n is that neither of the oldest age groups are over 80% for fully\n vaccinated yet, though they are both over 80% for at least one dose.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 May 21 - Comment: <em>The jab rate should increase again in the weeks\n leading up to school year and again when the FDA gives Pfizer EUA for 5-\n to 11-year-olds.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 May 21 - Comment: <em>It will probably be a very tough sell for the US\n to reach 80% fully vaccinated. Texas, for example, permits parents to\n opt out of vaccine requirements for enrolling their kids in school by\n claiming a philosophical exemption, along with the more usual medical or\n religious concerns. Even if full FDA authorization is granted this\n autumn for one or more of the COVID vaccines, the school year would have\n started without such a requirement in place because the vaccine won't\n have yet been available to all school age children.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 May 21 - Comment: <em>Getting kids vaccinated could make a big\n difference in the overall total, and it's possible the effort to\n vaccinate kids will also make shots available to unvaccinated parents.\n Some colleges are requiring vaccination (UC, CSU), and this will give\n the older teens/early 20s reason to get this done this summer.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 May 21 - Comment: <em>The US continues to lose ground on weekly jab\n averages. \"Fully vaccinated\" is the key to this question since numerous\n reports have shown that many are skipping their second jab. Current\n coverage is calculated to be 40.1%, with number of average daily jabs\n continuing to fall. The US certainly has the material and capacity, but\n is having a difficult time finding the motivation.</em><br>\n <br>\n 07 May 21 - Comment: <em>While I think it likely that we'll hit the goal\n of administering a first dose to at least 70% of adults by around 4\n July, not enough Americans may be willing to step up for 2 doses to get\n us to 80%. I imagine creative government incentives can and will get us\n to a reasonably decent place. But ultimately, there's just not enough\n national cohesiveness and sense of purpose to get us to <a href=\"https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/06/we-could-see-winter-comeback-covid-19-if-we-dont-get-more-americans-vaccinated-now/\" target=\"_blank\">80%</a>.\n That calculus could change, however, depending on the course of the\n virus. More outbreaks will accelerate calls for mandatory vaccination;\n fewer--and the pressure's off.</em><br>\n <br>\n 07 May 21 - Comment: <em>The US may reach a plateau at 75% sometime in\n the fall. Then, it will be a matter of doctors and pediatricians\n convincing their patients. Yet, there's definitely a shot, especially if\n cases and deaths tick up in the fall.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>BioNTech CEO Sahin discussed in German \"Spiegel\"\n the possible approval for Pfizer/BioNTech for 12- to 15-year-olds in\n June, for 5- to 12-year-olds in August, and for the youngest in October.\n That would lower the bar from about 90% of the adult population to 80%\n of the overall population.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 May 21 - Comment: <em>Pfizer and BioNTech plan to seek <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/melissaholzberg/2021/05/04/pfizer-will-file-for-full-fda-approval-for-covid-19-vaccine-by-end-of-may/?sh=7d81c91424c0\" target=\"_blank\">full</a>\n FDA approval by the end of May. Full approval won't happen immediately\n after filing, but it could happen soon after.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 May 21 - Comment: <em>The key antecedent for me is when the vaccines\n shift from EUA to full-fledged FDA approval for kids. Because when that\n happens, it's an easier road to requiring it for in-person learning.\n There'll be kids who decline for religious/medical/etc. reasons, but I\n think the vast majority of Americans are far more compliant than given\n credit for.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 May 21 - Comment: <em>There are state <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/phlp/publications/topic/vaccinations.html\" target=\"_blank\">criteria</a>\n for the vaccination of children that will likely require the vast\n majority of them to get vaccinated for Covid-19 prior to the beginning\n of the 2021 school year. I don't think the model will be flu. Given the\n pandemic, the model will be <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/phlp/docs/school-vaccinations.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">MMR</a>\n or a measles outbreak.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 May 21 - Comment: <em>Biden and Walensky have set a target of 70% of\n adults vaccinated by 4 July. The CDC director says they won't stop\n there, nor will they accept less than a 70% vaccination rate in any\n locality. Full FDA approval for vaccines is pending. FDA EUA approval\n for 12- to 15-year-olds will come next week. The news that Pfizer will\n apply for EUA for younger kids in September is a game-changer.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 May 21 - Comment: <em>Looking at countries whose vaccination programs\n have the highest penetration, uptake by the population slows down with\n time. I think for the US to get to 80% fully vaccinated will be\n difficult and will require the federal government to create both threats\n and incentives.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 May 21 - Comment: <em>The daily number of shots has fallen steadily.\n Some states may get to 85%, but most will not. The only way would be a\n bigger incentive or crisis.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 May 21 - Comment: <em>Some regions may reach 80% vaccination, but with\n the polarization and politicization of everything around Covid, there\n are probably going to be too many people who decide not to get\n vaccinated. Some things that could change the dynamic: (1) a really bad\n wave again in fall/winter; (2) requirement of vaccination for school\n attendance.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 May 21 - Comment: <em>About one third of the US population was already\n infected, so natural immunity could mean we'll get to herd immunity with\n fewer than 80% people vaccinated. Once cases are plummeting, there won't\n be new vaccine passport requirements, and unvaccinated adults are\n unlikely to suddenly decide they want a vaccine after all.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 May 21 - Comment: <em>This is going to be a tough threshold to reach\n unless the vaccines are authorized outside the emergency authorization\n route.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 May 21 - Comment: <em>Rates have been falling fast in recent weeks\n even as more vaccines have become available, and even though\n authorization for kids will likely come late summer/fall, many people\n will be hesitant.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 May 21 - Comment: <em>Of the 328mn US inhabitants, 80% of people need\n to be vaccinated. According to the February Pew survey, 15% are\n \"definitely not\" planning to get a vaccine, 15% \"probably not.\" However,\n these numbers seem to have been <a href=\"https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/03/05/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-plan-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-or-already-have/\" target=\"_blank\">declining</a>\n over time. The rate of inoculation has been declining significantly\n (down to 2.55mn over the last 2 weeks). If that trend continued\n linearly, there'd be no more vaccinations before August. Also, roughly\n 20% of the population are below 16, and no vaccine is currently approved\n for them.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 May 21 - Comment: <em>Another surge in fall/winter may give fresh\n impetus to the vaccination drive, but at this stage it would be\n premature to count on it.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 May 21 - Comment: <em>Attitudes change. Even many of the deniers will\n get a vaccine if it makes attending a sporting event or concert easier.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 May 21 - Comment: <em>The US has the vaccines and infrastructure, but\n may lack the enthusiasm for 80% vaccination. Even a successful\n school-age vaccination campaign is unlikely to push past the 75% level.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Fully vaccinated is a tall order. Currently,\n roughly 8% of those who had the first shot have not returned for their\n second. This gap could persist if people feel one shot is adequate. A\n wild card will be vaccinations for children 12-15. There are 17mn\n children in the US in that age category.</em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr> <br><center><input type=\"button\" id=\"btn1489\" style=\"font-size:14pt;background:#8a2535;color:white;border-radius:5px;\" value=\"Close Superforecaster Analysis\" onclick=\"showReport(1489);\"></center></div><br>"
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022, Not before 1 March 2022"
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{
"title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 5 billion worldwide?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/d71729a3-72e8-490c-bd7e-757027f9b226\" target=\"_blank\">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/\" target=\"_blank\">ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/</a>). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 28 February 2022 if the question is still open at that time.",
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{
"name": "Before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Not before 1 March 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:48.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1488\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c659c4\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 21 April 2021<br>\n <br>\n With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to\n fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/d71729a3-72e8-490c-bd7e-757027f9b226\" target=\"_blank\">vaccination</a>.\n The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Financial\n Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/\" target=\"_blank\">ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/</a>).\n Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 28 February 2022 if the\n question is still open at that time.<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 26 July 2021 - With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different\n countries, the global focus is on administering those vaccines. So far,\n more than 3.8 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide. Good\n Judgment's Superforecasters are looking at the questions of production,\n logistics, and expected demand--trends that would determine the pace of\n vaccinations--to forecast when 5 billion doses will be administered\n worldwide. As of 26 July, they see a 99% probability in total that this\n milestone will be reached before the end of this year, with\n September-October as the most likely outcome (currently 71% probability).<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 25 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>As of today, at least 3.86mn doses of\n coronavirus vaccines have been administered around the world, 74.6mn in\n 2 days. August has 5 Sundays and 4 Saturdays. Since this is coming down\n to days, having an extra Sunday could mean less vaccination. \"Before 1\n September 2021\" is too tight.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Jul 21 - Comment:<em> China appears to have stepped up their game and\n are driving the world's totals again. India and EU look stable. Brazil\n and Russia are out-jabbing the US.</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>It looks like around 1 September is possible,\n but there is a greater likelihood some unexpected event will slow it\n down than speed it up (e.g., if some vaccines are problematic for the\n Delta variant).</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>29.7mn yesterday. At that rate, we would need 42\n days to reach 5b. We've got only 41 days left until 1 September, and the\n general trend of new doses has been down for a month now.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>At a rate of 30mn/day, the threshold could be\n reached 48 days from now.<br>\n 1 September is in 46 days, so it's no longer highly probable that\n \"before 1 September 2021\" will be achieved. Vaccinations for all the\n heavy hitters (China, Indian EU, etc.) </em><em><em>have </em>stabilized,\n with no evidence of renewed increase at this point.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>General trend in the daily rate is downward.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The rate of vaccination globally drops off.\n 3.47b vaccine doses as of 7 hours ago and a rolling 7-day daily average\n that has dropped to 29.22mn from a high of 42.98mn on 27 June. At this\n rate, it would take until 3 September to reach 5b.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Daily average has now dropped into the\n September-October range. Getting to 5b prior to September seems to be\n more difficult given China's current output.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Vaccination dropped by 10mn/day to around\n 31mn/day.<br>\n </em><br>\n 10 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The jab rate has dropped by 10mn/day from a week\n ago. It appears China was the major influence. At a rate of 30mn/day,\n the threshold could be reached 53 days from now. 1 September is in 52\n days. It appears that China continues to slow their daily rate of\n vaccinations.</em><br>\n <br>\n 07 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>As expected, daily numbers in China are down to\n 15mn, from a maximum of 22mn. And that difference is about the same\n number the global daily numbers went down.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>It appears that both China and India have slowed\n their daily rate of vaccinations. If this trend continues, reaching this\n milestone before September is not likely to occur.<br>\n </em><br>\n 21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Those countries that had vaccines and\n infrastructure are slowing down, so putting most probability on\n September-October because as doses get delivered and donated elsewhere,\n logistics and refuseniks still need to be dealt with.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>The rollout seems to be going well, but it's\n mainly people in both high and low risk groups in countries with better\n health systems that have been vaccinated, so it's possible that as the\n focus shifts to countries with less organized health systems, the\n vaccines will be available but the distribution systems will be slower\n to get people vaccinated. So the rate of vaccination might slow by the\n time we get to August.<br>\n </em><br>\n 20 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>More than 2.59b doses administered across 180\n countries, with the latest daily rate at 38.5mn doses/day. At a rate of\n 35mn/day, the threshold could be reached 69 days from now. If the\n present rate can be maintained for 2 months, \"before September\" is\n achievable. China has been the main driver for the overall numbers.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Doses are continuing to bounce back from last\n week's pause. The projected resolution date through June has stayed\n relatively steady between 19 August and 26 August. A lot still depends\n on China.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>China did 1b doses. It was planning to do ~40%\n population by month end, which should be around 1.12b. It will be\n interesting to see how China plans to take it forward from here.\n Alternately, it could be that China is also seeing a Delta variant surge\n and will be ramping up fast. If this happens, they might almost\n single-handedly push vaccination rate to 5b by September.<br>\n </em><br>\n 16 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>G7 countries are planning to donate 1b doses to\n poorer countries. What effect does it have on this question? Of those 1b\n doses, 500mn will come from the US: 200mn from August to the end of the\n year, the rest in January-June 2022. The other G7 countries are giving\n 3.8mn doses/day right now. All of them except for Japan will have\n reached their vaccination goals soon. We're already struggling to reach\n the daily rate required to stay in the \"before September\" timeline.</em><em><br>\n </em><br>\n 14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Daily numbers in China are dropping massively\n since their peak on 4 June: down from 20.2mn to 16.4mn in only 9 days.\n Looks like their campaign is more or less over. With only numbers in\n India increasing significantly (but on a much lower level than required\n to compensate for the drop in China), the global daily rate might get\n down so much that even a 2022 timeline comes in reach.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Jun 21 - Comment:<em> Using Bloomberg's numbers of 2.09b vaccine doses\n at 38mn/day would be 71 more days, right on the edge between end of\n August and September.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>China reaching vaccine goals could result in a\n big drop-off in vaccinations. The question is whether, by then, lagging\n countries can pick up the slack. More specifically, for a resolution\n before September, India, East Asia (excluding China), and sub-Saharan\n African will likely need to start vaccinating quickly as China slows. It\n will be important to monitor anticipated supply to those regions.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>The vaccine production will increase, with more\n facilities and more approvals. However, once those countries with superb\n organization and logistics reach their peaks (the US, China), the rate\n might go down. Without a vaccine that does not depend on cooling\n infrastructure to reach an average person in Africa or rural China or\n India, administering 5b doses might get more difficult.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 May 21 - Comment: <em>China has moved from 584.4mn on 28 May to\n 639.2mn on 31 May: ~55mn doses in 3 days that they alone are doing out\n of 90-100mn shots overall shots delivered globally in last 3 days. This\n can potentially go on only till late June / mid-July as stated ambition\n was to vaccinate around 40%. Take this 50% jabbing away and the overall\n global vaccination rate hasn't improved a lot otherwise.</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 May 21 - Comment: <em>The global daily vaccination rate has been\n increasing, with some variability, over the past 2 months. At the\n current rate, the question would resolve on 26 September. If it\n continues to increase at the current rate, it is likely to resolve prior\n to September. My assumption is that global suppliers will continue to\n ramp up their capabilities, though regional distribution bottlenecks\n will occur. While demand remains heavy in Europe, Asia, and\n South/Central America, it is waning in the US. Also, there are signs of\n hesitancy/resistance as well as distribution problems in the <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/vaccine-hesitancy-slows-africas-covid-19-inoculation-drive-2021-05-04/\" target=\"_blank\">African</a>\n continent. While 5b doses of a two-dose vaccine would vaccinate 2.5n\n people, J&amp;J is a one-dose vaccine. For my purposes, I am assuming 5b\n doses will vaccinate 2.7b people globally, which is 34% of the\n population. Therefore, vaccine resistance/hesitancy may not be a\n significant issue as that doesn't appear to arise until ~45% of the\n population has been vaccinated. In sum, if current trends continue, this\n question will resolve prior to September. Supply chain issues or a\n significant miscalculation of the number of people who don't follow up\n after the first dose could alter that outcome.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 May 21 - Comment: <em>According to Bloomberg numbers, 1.63b have been\n vaccinated. 28.4Mmn/day. About 130 days to 5b. September-October most\n likely, but pace could pick up.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 May 21 - Comment: <em>Making a reasonably dramatic shift toward\n September-October on vaccination rates ramping up, the fact that the\n second dose does seem to matter more than expected, and supply\n increases.</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 May 21 - Comment: <em>Per Bloomberg, the jab rate continues to\n increase, putting it firmly in September-October.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 May 21 - Comment: <em>Resolution site says its ~1.55b currently (but\n we need to assume a decent lag as the locations are at various dates\n when it comes to last updated date). The rate is at roughly 25-27mn/day\n currently, meaning it will take around 5 weeks for every billion.\n However: (1) China shattered records and did a <a href=\"https://theprint.in/world/covid-pandemic-china-administers-15-million-shots-in-a-day-virus-grips-thailands-prisons/660987/\" target=\"_blank\">15</a>-20mn\n in a single day; (2) India will begin ramping up.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 May 21 - Comment: <em>The Serum Institute of India has now <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/63fbbb79-f657-4e6c-b190-cffd0d630593\" target=\"_blank\">said</a>\n that it will not be exporting vaccines until the end of the year. That\n seems to imply that all Indians will not be vaccinated before the end of\n the year. There are approximately 700mn Indians who would be of an age\n to vaccinate and assuming some level of reluctance a \"fully vaccinated\n India\" would probably need about 1b doses. At the current rate the total\n will not reach 2b until mid-June, but I would expect more capacity to\n come online to cut the time to closer to October.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 May 21 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-17/biden-says-he-ll-send-millions-of-fda-authorized-vaccines-abroad\" target=\"_blank\">Biden</a>\n is putting Jeff Zients, who has served as the White House coronavirus\n response coordinator, in charge of his effort to beat back the pandemic\n globally--a step that could lead to the US providing additional,\n potentially massive vaccines globally in addition to the 60 million AZ\n doses announced previously and 20 million Pfizer, Moderna, and J&amp;J\n doses announced today.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 May 21 - Comment: <em>Because we are measuring doses, not people,\n hesitancy will not be an issue. This is more a question of logistics.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 May 21 - Comment: <em>1.5b doses should be reached 18 May and the\n 7-day daily average as of yesterday was 21.1mn. More vaccines will be\n approved along the way and existing manufacturers will be ramping up\n production, but poor countries will largely rely on assistance from\n COVAX and other similar programs and most countries will struggle to\n efficiently rollout mass vaccination campaigns and eventually will find\n their pace slowing due to vaccine-hesitant groups. At the rate of\n 21mn/day, it would take until 24 October to reach 5b.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 May 21 - Comment: <em>Close to 1.3b doses of coronavirus vaccines have\n been administered around the world. At 15mn/day, the 5b threshold could\n be reached in 250 days, January 2022. At 20mn/day, it would take 185\n days, November 2021 (current rate). At 25mn/day rate, it would take 147\n days, September 2021.<br>\n </em><br>\n 04 May 21 - Comment: <em>Africa, with a population of 1.216b representing\n 15% of the global population, has only vaccinated ~1% of its population.\n That will make it a harder to get to 5b.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 May 21 - Comment: <em>Refusal, supply issues, distribution problems,\n problems with the vaccine itself could all be a factor. Another factor\n is whether new vaccines will come to market. At current pace, it will\n probably be around early November. Due to these risk factors, it could\n take longer.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 May 21 - Comment: <em>We're at 1.1b, having achieved most of that in\n the past 2 months. It should be possible to keep a similar rate. With\n most (a) people in Africa, China, India, etc. not yet inoculated and (b)\n possible approval for cheaper and easier to store vaccines, and (c) the\n huge numbers of doses \"beyond 2 shots per person\" ordered by EU, US,\n etc., the overall number of 5b will most certainly be achieved. But it\n might not be at the current rate, as this comes down to the questions of\n herd immunity, ability to reach areas like rural Africa, organizing mass\n inoculations in poorer countries.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Because we're measuring total doses, I want to\n do a little more research on how many doses the average person <a href=\"http://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/\" target=\"_blank\">receives</a>.\n I need to confirm that J&amp;J is the only one-and-done vaccine\n globally. Also, I'm aware a significant portion of people receiving the\n two-dose vaccines are not going back for the second dose. 5b people\n represents 63% of the global population, but we don't have to vaccinate\n that many to resolve the question depending on how many people go back\n to get the second dose. OTOH, authorities in China have set a goal to\n vaccinate <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/china-calls-for-halt-to-mandatory-vaccines-amid-inoculation-push\" target=\"_blank\">560mn</a>\n people by the end of June, which would be 1.12b doses. That could double\n by the end of the year, meaning China could be responsible for almost\n half of the 5b needed to resolve. Looking at the United Kingdom and\n Israel, it appears the vaccination rate slows down as it approaches 50%\n of the population. The United States has reached 43% and is already\n showing signs of a slowdown. Because the current distribution rate is\n running between the December 2021 and January 2022 bin divider, this\n could go either way.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Supply will ramp up in developed world, but\n we're already seeing worrying signs of vaccine hesitancy that will slow\n rates down.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The latest 0.5b doses have taken 29 days to\n administer which is a rate of about 17.24mn doses per day. At that rate\n 5b doses would be reached in 227 days on 12 December 2021. Using a\n standard deviation of 60 days.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The first <a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/\" target=\"_blank\">jab</a>\n was delivered 8 December 2021; 1b was reached ~26 April. Thus, the first\n billion were delivered in effectively about 4 months. This is an average\n rate of about 8.2mn/day over 4 months. Current rate is about 20mn/day.\n Will it increase or decrease? 4b doses at:<br>\n 15mn/day rate, the 5b threshold could be reached in 8.75 months.<br>\n 20mn/day rate, the 5b threshold could be reached in 6.5 months.<br>\n 25mn/day rate, the 5b threshold could be reached in 5.25 months.<br>\n 30mn/day rate, the 5b threshold could be reached in 4.4 months. <br>\n 35mn/day rate, the 5b threshold could be reached in 3.75 months.<br>\n More vaccines and more doses are being produced by more locations now\n than 4 months ago. There are 172 countries reporting their vaccinations;\n only about a dozen countries are currently not reporting. Most of the\n planet is now incentivized to increase their vaccination rates, limited\n only by supply. This forecast assumes the ramp-up in daily rates will\n increase near term, then level off and recede.</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The Economist (24 April) quotes Airfinity as\n estimating that 2b will be reached by 27 May. If that trend continued\n geometrically, the 5b would be reached before September. If after 27 May\n the growth remains flat and the total continues to increase at a rate of\n 1b every 5 weeks, it would take until early September. A week ago, there\n was a lot of concern that countries (particularly the US and EU) were\n blocking the export of the materials needed for making the vaccines.\n Since then, it seems, progress has been made, so I am going to assume\n that materials do not hold up production.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>There are now slightly over 1b doses given. The\n number had doubled in about 30 days, but it is taking slightly longer to\n double each time. So, if this continues, we could expect 4b around late\n August. Is there good reason to expect the rate of increase to slow\n significantly? It may not be possible to expand production that fast.\n The ability to roll out the vaccines might not be able to expand that\n fast. The number of people wanting to be vaccinated could decline. 5b\n doses of a two-dose vaccine would only represent between 30% and 50% of\n world population and several countries have managed to vaccinate those\n sort of percentages in 15 weeks, so it should be possible to get there\n before Sept. The bottleneck is likely to be the capacity to produce the\n vaccines.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>There are 7.9b people in the world, of which\n about 5b are adults. There are 2.4b in India and China alone. USA and\n Europe should hit 1b doses before the end of this year, with 70% of\n their population fully vaccinated, but other countries are likely to be\n slower. If most vaccines require two doses, about 3b fully vaccinated\n people will close this question, or about 60% of all adults worldwide.\n 1b doses have been administered in the first 4 months till now. At this\n rate, it will be another 16 months before another 4b are administered,\n but the pace has increased considerably since the start. At present,\n 19-20mn doses are being given daily. At this rate, it will take about 7\n months for another 4b doses, i.e., till November 2021. Reaching the\n hesitant in the rich countries, and much of the rural population in the\n Global South will require greater efforts than at present, so the pace\n could slow down, even when adequate supply becomes available.</em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr> <br><center><input type=\"button\" id=\"btn1488\" style=\"font-size:14pt;background:#8a2535;color:white;border-radius:5px;\" value=\"Close Superforecaster Analysis\" onclick=\"showReport(1488);\"></center></div><br>"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022, Not before 1 March 2022"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "In its 2020 report, The <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices\" target=\"_blank\">Conference</a> <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive\" target=\"_blank\">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/us/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:49.999Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1422\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c4f890\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 9 October 2020<br>\n <br>\n In its 2020 report, The <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices\" target=\"_blank\">Conference</a>\n <a href=\"https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Board</a>\n reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies\n explicitly disclosed <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive\" target=\"_blank\">board</a>\n members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The\n outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their\n individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board\n Practices <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/us/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n <br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 14 July 2021 - In December 2020, Nasdaq had proposed to amend its rules to\n require that the companies it lists have at least two diverse directors.\n The Securities and Exchange Commission decided to postpone the decision on\n the course of action on the proposal, but the discussion signals a trend\n toward expectations for increased diversity. The Superforecasters\n currently see the highest probability (75%) that the percentage of\n corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms held by racial minorities will\n be \"between 23% and 27%, inclusive\" in 2021.<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The Conference Board reports appear to rely on\n explicitly disclosed data. I find it noteworthy that there is such a\n large discrepancy between their reported diversity percentages (22%-23%)\n and those from GeekWire's analysis (<a href=\"https://www.geekwire.com/2021/push-corporate-board-diversity-growing-pacific-nw-tech-companies-stack/\" target=\"_blank\">12.5%</a>).\n This certainly supports the view already expressed by several\n Superforecasters that more transparency might well result in an apparent\n decrease.</em><br>\n <br>\n 07 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The companies that were originally reporting\n their board members' races were likely to be the more diverse ones, so\n more companies reporting will likely drop the percentage.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Counter-intuitively, if <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-01/big-u-s-companies-rush-to-disclose-board-diversity-data\" target=\"_blank\">more</a>\n companies are reporting in order to support greater accountability, it\n may drive down the overall percentage.</em><br>\n Response: <em>Good point. It dilutes data.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Public filings in the Board Diversity <a href=\"https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/center-for-board-effectiveness/articles/missing-pieces-board-diversity-census-fortune-500-sixth-edition.html\" target=\"_blank\">Census</a>\n \"were reviewed up until June 30, 2020, for a year-over-year comparison.\"\n This study, therefore, would mostly not reflect the movement on systemic\n racism that was galvanized by the May 2020 police killing of George\n Floyd.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>According to new board diversity report from\n Spencer Stuart, major companies tripled the number of new directors who\n are Black (comprising about <a href=\"https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/boardroom-diversity-rise-racial-reckoning-hits-private-sector/story?id=78312353\" target=\"_blank\">33%</a>\n of new directors, compared to 11% last year) and doubled the number who\n are Latinx (making up 7% of new directors, compared to 3% last year).</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Perhaps not as much progress is being made as\n thought. The Board Diversity Census, conducted by the Alliance of Board\n Diversity and the consulting firm Deloitte, found an overwhelming <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-business-c85831a5cec6268e0726c3ce28c39436\" target=\"_blank\">82.5%</a>\n of directors among Fortune 500 company boards are white.</em><br>\n <br>\n 10 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>There is a difference between the racial\n diversity of newly appointed members and the racial diversity of all\n corporate board seats, especially as some boards have expanded their\n boards. Nonetheless: \"some <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/race-and-ethnicity-business-c85831a5cec6268e0726c3ce28c39436\" target=\"_blank\">32%</a>\n of newly appointed board members in the S&amp;P 500 were Black,\n according to an analysis by ISS Corporate Solutions, which advises\n companies on improving shareholder value and reducing risk. That was a\n leap compared to 11% during the previous year.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 08 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>I may give \"More than 27%\" greater probability\n if additional sources confirm the Heidrick &amp; Struggles report.\n Reporting issues could skew the numbers, but I think bias will be for\n companies that awarded more board seats to racial minorities to report.</em><br>\n <br>\n 08 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>A graph with percentages of diversity in Fortune\n 500 companies in <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-08/black-directors-gained-ground-in-the-boardroom-as-women-latinos-whites-slipped\" target=\"_blank\">2020</a>\n shows 58.8% Caucasian, 27.7% Black, 3.9% Hispanic, 8.5% Asian, 1.2%\n Other.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>An interesting statistic: <a href=\"https://www.directorsandboards.com/articles/singlerevolving-door-government-boardroom\" target=\"_blank\">6%</a>\n of corporate board appointments this year have gone to political\n leaders--a group that overall trails the racial diversity of the US\n population.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 May 21 - US companies appoint more Black directors after social justice\n protests - <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/us-companies-appoint-more-black-directors-after-social-justice-protests-report-2021-05-25/\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n Comment: <em>Achieving 25%, in total, would be a real milestone for the\n firms.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 May 21 - Comment: <em>There have been <a href=\"https://fortune.com/2021/05/25/is-nasdaqs-board-diversity-proposal-already-working/\" target=\"_blank\">47</a>\n minority appointments in S&amp;P 500 companies since Nasdaq's\n announcement in December.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 May 21 - Comment: <em>From 1 July 2020 to 19 May 2021, a third of new\n board members at S&amp;P 500 companies are black. Black directors made\n up <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/79252e5b-1242-496b-9371-100bcc1327a3\" target=\"_blank\">10.6%</a>\n of S&amp;P 500 board members as of 19 May, compared with 8.3% in 2020\n and 7.8% in 2019.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 May 21 - Comment: <em>Since last June, <a href=\"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boards-are-adding-more-women-and-minorities-ahead-of-nasdaq-rule/\" target=\"_blank\">145</a>\n S&amp;P 500 companies have added at least one black director, at a\n higher rate compared to past years. Latino board appointments quadrupled\n from a year ago.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>The fact that President Biden <a href=\"https://19thnews.org/2021/04/biden-promised-the-most-diverse-administration-ever-heres-how-hes-doing/\" target=\"_blank\">promised</a>\n to have a Cabinet that reflected the diversity of the country may have\n some bleed-over effect into the corporate world.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>I suspect racial equity will be <a href=\"https://justcapital.com/reports/corporate-racial-equity-tracker/#the-corporate-racial-equity-tracker\" target=\"_blank\">harder</a>\n than gender equity, which also took years.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 May 21 - Comment: <em>California has a <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/10/10/new-law-requires-diversity-on-boards-of-california-based-companies/\" target=\"_blank\">law</a>\n demanding diversity. Yet, it could be a LGBQT person and not racially or\n ethnically diverse.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Racial diversification of boards appears to be\n moving at a fraction of the pace of gender diversification, but the\n pressure is on from <a href=\"https://www.crainsnewyork.com/finance/investors-pressure-corporate-america-record-diversity-push\" target=\"_blank\">shareholders</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>California's AB 979 will apply at year end, so I\n expect much more onboarding of Latinos happening toward that deadline.\n Even if the law is <a href=\"https://www.natlawreview.com/article/constitutional-challenge-to-ab-979-moving-toward-trial\" target=\"_blank\">struck\n down</a> eventually, firms should hedge in the meantime by\n diversifying.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>This may take longer than the timeframe of this\n question. Despite best of intentions, boards change slowly.</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>US publicly listed companies more than <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/u-s-firms-quadruple-latino-board-hires-in-slow-diversity-push\" target=\"_blank\">quadrupled</a>\n the appointment of Latino executives to their boards in Q1 2021.<br>\n </em><br>\n 12 Apr 21 - Shareholders target \"white man's world\" with record <a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/06/shareholders-diversity-data-479159%C2%A0\" target=\"_blank\">demands</a>\n for diversity data. Comment: <em>US companies are coming under intense\n pressure to diversify their executive ranks.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The question asks about racial/ethnic diversity,\n and in some of the numbers on diversity numbers they include gender.\n This <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/corporate-boards-black-hispanic-directors.html\" target=\"_blank\">NYT</a>\n article from September says for racial and ethnic groups, it is 12.5%,\n and this <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/09/08/addressing-the-challenge-of-board-racial-diversity/\" target=\"_blank\">article</a>\n backs that up. <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-companies-continuing-to-improve-board-diversity-2020-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-301193833.html\" target=\"_blank\">22%</a>\n of new S&amp;P 500 directors are minorities, down from 23% last year.\n Minority women represent 10% of the incoming class, consistent with last\n year, and minority men represent 12% of the new directors, a slight\n decrease from 13% last year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The baseline is about 22%-23%. It's obvious that\n there is more interest in addressing this issue. The Conference Board is\n even focused on <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/publications/ROI-of-Inclusion-ES\" target=\"_blank\">research</a>\n and <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/agendas/979021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">conferences</a>\n aimed at these kinds of initiatives. But to get above 27%, you'd need 25\n people added to the corporate boards in one year. It took 10 years for\n women's representation to go from 22% to 47%. That's a rate of 2.5% a\n year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Bloomberg looked at the EEO-1 forms for 37 out\n of the nation's 100 largest corporations and observed that in the past\n six months businesses have increasingly sought to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/diversity-equality-in-american-business/\" target=\"_blank\">address</a>\n the issue of racial diversity.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Turnover in board of directors is usually slow\n and we would need to get 6% points vs 2020 to reach \"more than 27%.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>In addition to Meg Whitman, <a href=\"https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2021/03/25/gm-add-two-new-directors-further-diversifying-its-boardroom/6965869002/\" target=\"_blank\">GM</a>\n added Asian American Mark Tatum to the board.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>The baseline for 2019 and 2020 was 23% and 22%,\n and problems like diversity, while large in public consciousness, might\n not be playing as big of a role in boardrooms in the middle of a\n pandemic. According to a <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-companies-continuing-to-improve-board-diversity-2020-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-301193833.html\" target=\"_blank\">survey</a>,\n \"one-quarter (24%) of S&amp;P 500 companies report having a commitment\n to recruiting from a diverse slate of candidates when considering new\n directors.\"<br>\n </em><br>\n 18 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Apparently the rate of change is <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/corporate-boards-wont-hit-gender-parity-until-2032-new-report-warns.html\" target=\"_blank\">slowing</a>:\n 22% of new directors in the S&amp;P 500 in 2020, down from 23% the prior\n year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Given that the vote on new rules will not take\n place until second half of year, I doubt it is going up much this year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Mar 21 - SEC decision <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3671567-sec-delays-ruling-on-nasdaqs-board-diversity-plan\" target=\"_blank\">postponed</a>\n to this summer. Comment: <em>Nasdaq proposal is delayed. However, the fact\n that it is out there means it will drive more diversity for this year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>A high profile minority addition: \"<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earvin-magic-johnson-appointed-fanatics-140000644.html\" target=\"_blank\">Fanatics</a>,\n a global leader for licensed sports merchandise, today announced the\n appointment of Earvin 'Magic' Johnson to its Board of Directors.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Legislation <a href=\"https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/news-analysis/lawmakers-again-push-for-greater-corporate-diversity-disclosures\" target=\"_blank\">introduced</a>\n to the Senate by Bob Mendendez may encourage more expedited actions\n toward the stated goal, but it is unclear whether it will happen within\n the timespan under consideration.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Legislation is expected to be <a href=\"https://www.pionline.com/legislation/corporate-diversity-bill-introduced-senate\" target=\"_blank\">introduced</a>\n soon in the House by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-NY. There is apparently broad\n support for requiring transparency, which will likely resulted in\n increases even without specific quotas being set.</em><br>\n <br>\n 08 Feb 21 - Oregon bill sets <a href=\"https://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2021/02/02/proposed-bill-sets-corporate-board-diversity.html\" target=\"_blank\">requirements</a>\n for corporate board diversity. Comment: <em>Potentially this bill only\n impacts Nike and FLIR. But there are 12 other apparel brands on the\n S&amp;P 500, and Nike has been using diversity as a differentiator from\n other brands, which might push them to increase the diversity of their\n boards.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>It will come down to whether more companies\n choose to disclose and the likelihood that those disclosing will be\n doing so for PR benefit (i.e., more likely to have a diverse board).</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>This question has little to do with the actual\n composition of board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms and more with\n PR/reporting decisions.</em><br>\n <br>\n 10 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The \"real\" number for all 500 companies seems as\n likely to be below 23% as between 23% and 27%. The companies that\n already disclose are much more likely to have a diverse board. As more\n companies disclose, we could trend down.</em><br>\n <br>\n 08 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>If NASDAQ is coming out for board diversity, you\n know you've got a trend on your hands. People are going to try to get in\n front of this, but at the same time, these changes take time.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Boardroom diversity has been a standard\n requirement in some European countries for <a href=\"https://www.npr.org/2020/12/01/940501693/nasdaq-pushes-to-require-corporate-boards-to-add-more-women-and-minorities\" target=\"_blank\">years</a>.\n It's worth noting <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/nasdaq-proposes-board-diversity-rule-for-listed-companies-11606829244\" target=\"_blank\">that</a>\n \"Nasdaq's main rival, the New York Stock Exchange...hasn't gone so far\n as to mandate it through a listing rule.\" Nonetheless, increased\n diversity expectations would appear to be the direction things are\n headed.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>The NASDAQ rule, even if approved, shows no\n reason to think it will happen in 2021. The earliest we would see\n results is two years after approval.<br>\n </em><br>\n 01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>NASDAQ <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/business/dealbook/nasdaq-diversity-boards.html\" target=\"_blank\">news</a>\n is interesting. There are two parts to it: (1) all listed companies must\n disclose board composition by gender and race; (2) companies that don't\n have at least one woman and one minority on their board must explain why\n not. Companies that don't disclose and/or explain would be delisted. The\n question is, will the SEC allow these seemingly more innocuous\n disclosure rules? I would say the second part (explaining lack of\n diversity) is less likely to fly than the first part.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Certainly a continuation of discourse promoting\n ethnic and other forms of diversity on corporate boards is evident over\n the past month (and by no means only in the US or in the Anglosphere). I\n do suspect that the Biden administration in the US will serve as a push\n (in some cases at an open door, notably in some larger corporations) to\n encourage a rapid shift in this direction.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>There has been a <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-corporate-boards-lack-diversity-but-these-top-companies-are-leading-change-and-the-stock-market-rewards-them-2020-10-23\" target=\"_blank\">rising\n trend</a> over a longer period than just this year. </em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Six S&amp;P 500 companies added black women to\n their boards in October according to <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/six-black-women-add-to-female-gains-on-s-p-500-boards-in-october\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://twitter.com/BoardProspects\" target=\"_blank\">BoardProspects</a>,\n the organization from the Barron's article, shares announcements and\n press releases of additions to corporate boards.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/after-george-floyds-death-the-number-of-black-board-members-surges-51603809011\" target=\"_blank\">Barron's</a>\n report indicates that in the five months since Floyd's death, Russell\n 3000 companies appointed 130 Black board members, compared with 38 Black\n directors appointed in the preceding five months, according to\n BoardProspects.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>At least <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/05/12/states-are-leading-the-charge-to-corporate-boards-diversify/\" target=\"_blank\">11\n states</a> besides California have already enacted or are considering\n enacting board diversity requirements.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Read an interesting observation that Black and\n Latino corporate board members were more likely to serve on multiple\n boards (1 in 3 and 1 in 4, respectively) than those who are white (1 in\n 6). This suggests that once an individual of a racial minority has\n become acceptable to one board, they are likely to be recruited by other\n boards.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>An <a href=\"https://hbr.org/2020/08/why-do-boards-have-so-few-black-directors\" target=\"_blank\">HBR</a>\n article looks at the social issues surrounding the selection of minority\n board members. There is a heavy reliance on social networking in board\n selection. \"Over half of Black directors were known to a fellow board\n member prior to being appointed, as compared to 35% of white directors.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b45f6a13-c8e6-484b-a75f-bb578178e87f\" target=\"_blank\">ISS</a>\n urges companies to disclose ethnicity of directors. Worth remembering\n that for newly disclosing companies, if only 1 in 4 had diversified\n board it would push the overall percentage up.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to this 2019 article, every board has\n at least one woman. <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/25/there-is-now-a-woman-board-member-at-every-sp-500-company.html\" target=\"_blank\">Women</a>\n make up 27% of board members. The increase has been slow to come about\n but may have been pushed by the #MeToo movement.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Board turnover is a slow process. While there\n will be inexorable movement toward greater board diversity, there are\n not many board seats that will come up next year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/02/05/missing-pieces-report-the-2018-board-diversity-census-of-women-and-minorities-on-fortune-500-boards/\" target=\"_blank\">Here</a>\n is another good study (though of the Fortune 100 rather than SP500).\n Seems like minority representation on these boards has been rising by\n about 2% every two years.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Other sources seem to be able to get more\n complete data than the Conference Board. For example, <a href=\"https://www.blackenterprise.com/lists/2019-companies-without-black-directors/\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n source managed to count 307 S&amp;P companies with Black board members\n and 187 without in 2019.</em><br>\n <br>\n 24 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Any efforts by the Conference Board to get data\n on the smaller companies could really bring down the average.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>With the current figure from The Conference\n board indicating a 22% non-white board membership, a lot hinges on the\n timeline trend. <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-500-boards-are-accelerating-the-addition-of-diverse-directors-2019-spencer-stuart-us-board-index-finds-300943584.html\" target=\"_blank\">This</a>\n article says \"minorities comprise 19% of all directors of the top\n S&amp;P 200 companies, up from 17% last year.\" Which suggests a 2-3%\n steady increase per year. It seems unlikely a diversification trend will\n strike that gets the world above 27% in a year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to <a href=\"http://www.thecorporatecounsel.net/blog/2020/09/vanguards-expectations-for-board-diversity.html\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n reporting, there are 161 companies in the S&amp;P 500 without any Black\n directors. Importantly, that was a 6% improvement from a mid-July 2020\n study. So recent signs that some movement towards greater board racial\n diversity is starting to take place.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A rough calculation suggests that if half of\n open slots were filled by an ethnic minority, the percentage of\n minorities would increase to 27%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Key figures from <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/fewer-black-executives-were-added-to-sp-500-boards-over-the-past-year.html\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>\n article: 20% of S&amp;P500 board members are people of color (a 1%\n increase from last year); 11% of S&amp;P500 board members are black (a\n 2% decrease from last year); minority women are at 10% of S&amp;P500\n board seats, and seemingly stuck there; and board seats turnover at\n roughly 8% a year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 15 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A <a href=\"https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-30/california-corporations-diversify-boards-directors-legislature\" target=\"_blank\">California</a>\n <a href=\"https://news.bloomberglaw.com/corporate-governance/guidance-for-complying-with-californias-new-board-diversity-mandate\" target=\"_blank\">requirement</a>\n to diversify boards. This could encourage CA companies that haven't\n reported in the past to do so in 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>If you use the <a href=\"https://www.leap.org/alliance-for-board-diversity-report\" target=\"_blank\">ABD</a>\n (Alliance for Board Diversity) report, board compositions have been\n changing at a rate of 0.3-0.4% per year for minority men, presumably it\n is less for minority women.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>For Board turnover, something just shy of <a href=\"https://www.spencerstuart.com/-/media/pdf-files/research-and-insight-pdfs/how-much-board-turnover-is-best_9june2014-v2.pdf?la=en&amp;hash=C3A5D37041A3CE1151BD462292C9EA3B78A2BBAF\" target=\"_blank\">one</a>\n board seat a year in each company.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Says <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2019/06/18/u-s-board-diversity-trends-in-2019/\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>\n that \"after a decline in board renewal rates in the first years after\n the Great Recession, boards began to add more new directors starting in\n 2012 and reached record numbers of board replenishment in 2017 and 2018,\n as a growing number of investors focused on board refreshment and board\n diversity.\" Graph of the trend <a href=\"https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/5.png\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr><small>Copyright 2021 by Good Judgment Inc. This presentation is\n solely for informational purposes. The information contained herein are\n not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. No\n representation or warranty (express or implied) is provided with respect\n to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of this presentation. The\n future is inherently uncertain, and investors should exercise prudence\n and their own judgment in making investment decisions. Neither Good\n Judgment nor any of its directors, employees, or agents accept any\n liability for any loss (direct or indirect), including investment loss,\n or damage arising out of the use of the information herein. Any opinions\n expressed in this document may change without prior notice.</small><br>\n </div>\n <script type=\"text/javascript\">(function(){window['__CF$cv$params']={r:'6758f71e29aa1f31',m:'757ac353bc8660f2e81438d4ecb1f30d26583c57-1627421389-1800-AcVoCZwHC4ojs4XzhvrOPzeC+fRWB+ge7fECaXxpsRflXhAuZtXCxsLKXI073MNkFSHu43nDM9YO0fCljByU0W3F7O25oB+Hle/AYzpvZWfwii67zDOY+fTBkaZLw1ADSw==',s:[0xb47f39b475,0xc76d240b59],u:'/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/h/g'}})();</script>\n\n<br>"
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"title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "The International Monetary Fund (<a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>) and <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering\" target=\"_blank\">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/\" target=\"_blank\">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending\" target=\"_blank\">website</a>, choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls\" target=\"_blank\">April 2020</a> report.",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:49.999Z",
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"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1423\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c4fdea\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 9 October 2020<br>\n <br>\n The International Monetary Fund (<a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>)\n and <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering\" target=\"_blank\">others</a>\n are projecting a significant <a href=\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/\" target=\"_blank\">contraction</a>\n in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined\n using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the\n World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022.\n At the IMF <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending\" target=\"_blank\">website</a>,\n choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose\n \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab\n Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data,\n usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic\n product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity;\n international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for\n 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion\n according to the <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls\" target=\"_blank\">April\n 2020</a> report.<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 14 July 2021 - A growth rate of up to 4% remains the Superforecasters' top\n probability for the resolution of this question (currently 63%\n probability). They also see a 36% probability that this growth rate may\n exceed 4%, propelled by the reopening of the economies.<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>I'll give equal weight to \"Higher by between 0%\n and 4%, inclusive\" and \"Higher by more than 4%.\" The Delta variant could\n hold the planet recovery back, however.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>The Conference Board's latest <a href=\"https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook\" target=\"_blank\">update</a>\n predicts global GDP growth \"north of 5 percent year-on-year\"--enough to\n readily recoup the losses of 2020.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>This <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jun/19/western-countries-must-share-covid-vaccines-if-only-for-the-sake-of-their-gdp\" target=\"_blank\">article</a>\n points out that for the strong economic forecasts to be correct,\n variants need to be kept in check.<br>\n </em><br>\n 18 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>Based on the WHO's April 2021 GDP projection (at\n purchasing power parity), 2019 is reported as $134.98, 2021 estimate is\n $141.96 or <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/tableA.ashy\" target=\"_blank\">5.3%</a>.\n Expecting variations in both economic growth and the PPP estimate, but\n it should be above 4%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 10 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>US to provide 500mn more doses to Covax in\n coming months. More jabs mean better economic conditions worldwide.</em><br>\n <br>\n 07 Jun 21 - Global growth will hit a 5-decade high in 2021, OECD <a href=\"https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-global-gdp-growth-recovery-oecd-vaccines-inflation-spending-2021-6\" target=\"_blank\">says</a>.\n Comment: <em>The OECD forecasts 5.8% (over 2020), but the SE Asia drag\n could put a dent in that.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 May 21 - Comment: <em>Arguments in favor of higher growth: (1)\n Continued confidence about substantial growth in 2021 reported from most\n regions of the world; (2) presumption that successes of vaccination\n programs will permit a greater resumption of a modified version of\n pre-pandemic \"normality\" in more countries; (3) anticipated upsurge in\n inflation (in part in response to government stimulus programs in\n numerous countries). Counter-argument: Potential for pandemic conditions\n to worsen, notably in India, but potentially elsewhere, leading to\n further shutdowns of activity before year end. However, we now have far\n more experience in managing work under these restrictions than was the\n case in 2020.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 May 21 - Comment: <em>Post-pandemic <a href=\"https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/05/25/10643937/insight-us-economic-outlook-strengthens-but-all-eyes-on-inflation\" target=\"_blank\">inflation</a>\n doesn't last, but it may last long enough to affect this question.</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 May 21 - Comment: <em>The EU economic outlook is starting to improve.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 May 21 - Comment: <em>IMF's projection of 6.0 for the world looks rosy\n to me, given problems in India, vaccine rollout delays, and black swan\n type events.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>After a pause in Q1 2021, the global economic\n expansion has resumed in <a href=\"https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/global-real-gdp-will-reach-new-peak-q2-2021.html\" target=\"_blank\">Q2</a>,\n according to IHS Markit. They project global real GDP to increase 5.3%\n in 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>Bank of England, after Brexit, is forecasting a\n growth of <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/06/uk-braces-for-strongest-economic-growth-since-wwii-forecasts-bank-of-england\" target=\"_blank\">7.25%</a>.\n That seems to suggest an overall growth for the world's GDP in 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Both the rollout and further development of\n vaccines are now progressing. There are reasonable expectations of\n broader economic reopenings occurring by mid-year to Q3 in much of\n Europe and the US, at least. India remains a worry. As yet the apparent\n failure of any vaccine-resistant strains to emerge is a further cause of\n optimism.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Latest IMF prediction on their 6 April report is\n for 5.3% increase. Noting the figure for 2019 was revised down.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>A Reuters poll of over 500 economists says the\n global economy will recover in 2021 from the coronavirus fallout \"at a <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/business/global-economy-stage-vigorous-recovery-jobs-growth-lag-2021-04-23/\" target=\"_blank\">pace</a>\n not seen since the 1970s.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>It'll be positive. The <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/baeedc07-3525-44c6-9d9c-43d16deb1b89\" target=\"_blank\">question</a>\n is by how much. Given the inflation picture that tends to happen after\n pandemics and larger demographic trends, between 0% and 4% seems most\n likely.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>World Finance believes the global economic\n recovery will be <a href=\"https://www.worldfinance.com/strategy/top-5-keys-to-global-economic-recovery-in-2021\" target=\"_blank\">fragile</a>\n and dependent upon: (1) a successful, widespread vaccine rollout around\n the world; (2) a fiscal policy that is supportive for businesses; (3) an\n end to stop-start lockdowns; (4) targeted support for those in society\n hardest hit; (5) shifting from survivor mode to investment in future\n growth. <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sunny-forecasts-for-global-economic-recovery-tend-to-ignore-flash-points-like-ukraine-or-taiwan-expert-notes-11618325350\" target=\"_blank\">MarketWatch</a>\n would add one more: (6) no outbreak of conflict between Russia and\n Ukraine and/or China and Taiwan.</em><br>\n <br>\n 10 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The young and old are generally <a href=\"https://www.bis.org/publ/work722.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">associated</a>\n with higher inflation while working age cohorts are associated with\n lower inflation. Demographic trends of fewer children are more than\n offsetting the aging of the population, reducing inflationary pressures.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>Mild inflation would probably keep this in the\n \"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive\" range, while deflation or\n larger inflation could push the rate slightly lower or higher than 4%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/imf-world-economic-outlook-april-2021-global-gdp-to-hit-6percent.html\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>\n expect the world economy to grow by 6% in 2021, up from their 5.5%\n forecast in January.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>It is highly probable that the economy will\n grow, but moderately. Only inflation can push it toward \"Higher by more\n than 4%.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Both <a href=\"https://www.businessinsider.co.za/economic-outlook-gdp-forecast-vaccination-stimulus-us-global-recovery-fitch-2021-3\" target=\"_blank\">Fitch</a>\n and <a href=\"https://think.ing.com/articles/world-trades-path-to-recovery\" target=\"_blank\">ING</a>\n have increased their forecasts to 6% and 6.1% respectively, largely in\n response to progress in vaccine development, and growth of\n recovery-aiding fiscal support programs. This may prove over-optimistic\n (e.g., overlooking the risk of vaccine-resistant variants emerging; or\n any number of geopolitical black swans).</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>The impact of inflation is something to watch.\n In 2008, for instance, inflation went up by <a href=\"https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/WLD/world/inflation-rate-cpi\" target=\"_blank\">4%</a>,\n which would bump the forecast up significantly if that becomes a major\n factor this year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Mar 21 - Europe has missed its chance to stop the third wave. The US\n could be next - <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/19/europe/coronavirus-europe-third-wave-intl/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNN</a>.<br>\n <br>\n 18 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>UN estimates 2021 GDP growth at <a href=\"https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2021-03-18/un-body-raises-global-economic-growth-forecast-for-2021-to-47\" target=\"_blank\">4.7%</a>.\n 2020 growth is given as -3.9%. In combination, 2021 GDP should be\n slightly above 2019 (just above 0%). In addition, inflation may slightly\n raise the 2021 total.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>The scale of Biden's $1.9t US stimulus plan will\n add about 1 percentage point to global economic growth in 2021, <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/7f7d4b7d-028a-41a6-b11e-8320173ae4bc\" target=\"_blank\">says</a>\n the OECD's chief economist.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>China, which is largest contributor to GDP in\n PPP terms (~18%), has just set their economic growth target for 2021 to\n <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-04/china-s-gdp-target-tech-ambitions-in-focus-in-key-policy-plans\" target=\"_blank\">6%</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>According to <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ed6f883f-eaaa-4dfc-85cc-e7d79251c89b\" target=\"_blank\">FT</a>,\n \"The consensus prediction for global GDP growth in 2021 is just over 5\n per cent.\" Add in the possibility of inflation, and we might see more\n than 4% growth.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>As this question is about Purchasing Power\n Parity, GDP inflation has significant impact on outcome. While inflation\n is expected to rise significantly in US, Eurozone, and emerging markets,\n China will probably show healthy increase in GDP.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Progress is being made in Covid vaccinations,\n and this in turn spurs consumer optimism.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>Even with the successful rollout of Covid-19\n vaccination programs, social distancing requirements (and the\n concomitant need for new forms of economic activity) will inhibit\n anything like a substantial recovery.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The slow vaccine rollout and the emergence of\n new strains could delay any meaningful recovery to the second half of\n the year and possibly into next year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 24 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The possibility of inflation is noteworthy,\n which seems reasonable after trillions of dollars of <a href=\"https://fortune.com/2021/01/18/biden-economic-plan-us-debt-interest-rates/\" target=\"_blank\">stimulus</a>\n money. Inflation could put this up a bin or two above expectations.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The strength of Asian economies paired with\n inflation could keep the world's GDP from negative growth.<br>\n </em><br>\n 12 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>This year is not starting out well, and it's not\n going to pull out of its trajectory quickly.</em><br>\n <br>\n 07 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>The key detail is that this year is starting\n with lockdowns. If you have serious negative growth for the first\n quarter or two, then it'll be a large hole to climb out of in order to\n get positive for the year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>Infections may have peaked in Europe and will\n soon peak in US, and inoculation pace will eventually pick up. Asia\n looks solid. Overall, I expect final results to be up 2 to 5 pct.</em><br>\n <br>\n 20 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Strikes me as a variant of purchasing power\n parity driving up GDP through aggregate demand response. It could be\n accomplished through coordinated government <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-imf/synchronized-g20-infrastructure-spending-could-boost-global-gdp-senior-imf-official-idUKKBN28P1XF\" target=\"_blank\">action</a>\n or as an artifact of reduced supply and surging demand. I'm skeptical of\n any V shaped recovery narratives.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>A <a href=\"https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-recession-2020-recovery/\" target=\"_blank\">visual</a>\n showing the uncertainty around the GDP recovery timetable.</em><br>\n <br>\n 10 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>The </em>Economist Intelligence Unit<em> has <a href=\"https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=q4globalforecast\" target=\"_blank\">updated</a>\n quarterly forecast to reflect a more positive outlook.</em><br>\n <br>\n 08 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Let's imagine that vaccine is distributed, the\n world makes it through the financial repercussions, and so forth. Will\n the combined nature of a world recovery put pressure on supply chains\n that will drive up inflation and by extension world GDP? It's like the\n pandemic toilet paper situation, but it will be all the items, such as\n capital investment, that were delayed due to the cash flow crunch of the\n pandemic.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Most estimates seem to be bullish on global\n growth, with the EU (and the UK in particular) to be the laggards, along\n with Argentina.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/citi-on-when-covid-19-vaccines-will-result-in-herd-immunity-globally.html\" target=\"_blank\">News</a>\n this month on Covid-19 vaccine successes and the probability of an\n expedited vaccination program roll-out, at least in some parts of the\n world, seems to be the major game-changer here. However, some sectors of\n the economy (notably those linked to or reliant upon large levels of\n international travel) would be slower to rebound. In short, big recovery\n might happen in 2022; economic performance in 2021 can be expected to be\n more modest in scope.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Nov 20 - Comment: The Economist<em> <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help\" target=\"_blank\">considers</a>\n the lasting damage from the pandemic, and whether the impact has been\n obscured by aggressive government intervention that will soon end.</em><br>\n <br>\n 22 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Shifting more to 4%+ based on vaccine news,\n which bodes well for the second half of 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-expect-a-bull-run-in-2021-161633833.html\" target=\"_blank\">Goldman</a>\n thinks it's going to be the running of the bulls, expecting global real\n GDP growth to hit 6%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/11/coronavirus-vaccine-doesnt-mean-a-quick-economic-recovery-ubs-weber.html\" target=\"_blank\">UBS</a>\n cautions that even with a vaccine, it will take time for the global\n economy to get back to pre-crisis levels.</em><br>\n <br>\n 01 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>The damage to <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/covid-second-wave-investing-in-asia.html\" target=\"_blank\">Asia</a>\n from the second wave of Covid in the West might be limited, boding well\n for that portion of the global GDP in 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>A fear that <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3b0c5a2-6caa-4b27-9395-92cc48298da8\" target=\"_blank\">Europe</a>\n is becoming bogged down in a Japanese-style cycle of weak growth,\n negative interest rates and sub-zero inflation.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>There is a high risk that the second wave of\n coronavirus cases <a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-economy-poll/global-economic-rebound-at-risk-from-rising-coronavirus-cases-reuters-poll-idUSKBN27E09L\" target=\"_blank\">halts</a>\n the global economic recovery by year-end, according to Reuters poll of\n around 500 economists.</em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Oct 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPGDP@WEO/WEOWORLD\" target=\"_blank\">This</a>\n is a really helpful IMF tool which translates world GDP in current\n prices using purchasing power parity.</em><br>\n <br>\n 24 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>The new IMF estimate is for 3.9% current prices\n GDP growth from 2019 to 2021, so upper end of Bin D.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>The WEO report suggests something like 2.66% to\n factor in for inflation. Emerging economies inflation is 4.85%, and they\n are 40% of global GDP; advanced economies inflation is 1.2% and 60% of\n global GDP.</em><br>\n <br>\n 19 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>According to <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/ppp.htm\" target=\"_blank\">this</a>,\n PPP is hard to measure. With much of normal commerce shut down, how will\n that affect the IMFs ability to get a good read on PPP?</em><br>\n <br>\n 18 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Important to note that a big part of every\n year-to-year increase in the 'current prices' data used by the IMF, and\n which will be used to resolve the question, is the effect of inflation.\n Using current prices, the IMF is at present predicting a 5% increase in\n GDP from 2019 to 2021, and therefore a Bin E resolution. </em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Worth noting from the IMF data that the only\n year from 1980-2021 that was negative is 2020. Average over the whole\n set is just shy of +6%/yr.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>The October 2020 <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>\n World Economic Outlook forecasts -4.4% for 2020 and +5.2% for 2021. This\n is vs. the June forecast of -4.9% for 2020 and +5.4% for 2020.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>The <a href=\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/\" target=\"_blank\">OECD</a>\n last month predicted global GDP would return to pre-pandemic level by Q3\n 2021, despite economic output remaining below late-2019 levels in many\n countries.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Some <a href=\"https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/10/08/should-we-trust-the-initial-claims-data/\" target=\"_blank\">economist</a>\n forecasts are near the bottom of this post. The range of forecasts in\n these buckets is massive for global GDP. </em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>The June 2020 <a href=\"https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020\" target=\"_blank\">IMF</a>\n prediction of -4.9% growth in 2020, followed by 5.4% growth in 2021,\n equates overall to approx. 0.2% growth over the two year period. But\n that is in constant terms, not current.</em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr><small>Copyright 2021 by Good Judgment Inc. This presentation is\n solely for informational purposes. The information contained herein are\n not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. No\n representation or warranty (express or implied) is provided with respect\n to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of this presentation. The\n future is inherently uncertain, and investors should exercise prudence\n and their own judgment in making investment decisions. Neither Good\n Judgment nor any of its directors, employees, or agents accept any\n liability for any loss (direct or indirect), including investment loss,\n or damage arising out of the use of the information herein. Any opinions\n expressed in this document may change without prior notice.</small><br>\n </div>\n \n\n<br>"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower by more than 8%, Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive , Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% , Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive, Higher by more than 4%"
},
{
"title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "Interest in <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter\" target=\"_blank\">sustainable</a> <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us\" target=\"_blank\">sector</a> <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs\" target=\"_blank\">investment</a> <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule\" target=\"_blank\">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows\" target=\"_blank\">data</a> from <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records\" target=\"_blank\">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "At or below 2020 levels",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:29:49.999Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
},
"extra": {
"superforecastercommentary": "<div id=\"rpt1424\" style=\"position:relative;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;width:90%;font-size:11pt;display:none;\"><center><a href=\"dlRpt.php?c50344\">Download full report</a></center><br>BACKGROUND:<br>\n <br>\n Opened 9 October 2020<br>\n <br>\n Interest in <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter\" target=\"_blank\">sustainable</a>\n <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us\" target=\"_blank\">sector</a>\n <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs\" target=\"_blank\">investment</a>\n <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule\" target=\"_blank\">has</a>\n been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020\n has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds\n flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using\n <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows\" target=\"_blank\">data</a>\n from <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records\" target=\"_blank\">Morningstar</a>\n for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.<br>\n <br>\n Examples of Superforecaster commentary in <em>italics</em><br>\n <br>\n <hr><br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">AT A GLANCE:</span><br>\n <br>\n 14 July 2021 - Morningstar reported global ESG funds increased by over\n 100% in 2020 relative to 2019, significantly outperforming their\n traditional fund peers. Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters\n believe this strong performance should only serve to draw more investors\n and the value of sustainable funds is on track to increase further in\n 2021. The question is by how much. Superforecasters as a group see a 26%\n probability that the increase will be up to 100% this year and a 73%\n probability the value will more than double relative to 2020.<br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <span class=\"bold-title\">SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS:</span><br>\n <br>\n 13 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Measured Figure 10 in Morningstar's Q1 <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>.\n Extrapolating with 3 different models: (1) $21.5b per quarter for the\n rest of the year: 167%; (2) exponential: QN(Year) / QN(Year-1) = const:\n 241%; (3) quadratic: QN(Year) - QN(Year-1) = const: 136%.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Caution is warranted due to market <a href=\"https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2021/07/08/emotion-is-driving-esg-investing/\" target=\"_blank\">emotions</a>.<br>\n </em><br>\n 09 Jul 21 - Comment: <em>Recently, larger firms have been buying up some\n of the key companies leading US sustainable investing. Last year,\n Australian financial services company Perpetual bought Trillium Asset\n Management. This year, Morgan Stanley acquired Eaton Vance, which had\n acquired Calvert Research &amp; Management in 2016. AMG already bought\n 15% of Boston Common Asset Management this year, and has now apparently\n agreed to buy <a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/amg-to-buy-parnassus-51625420672\" target=\"_blank\">Parnassus</a>\n Investments.</em><br>\n <br>\n 02 Jul 21 - 401(k) Investors Will Soon Be Able to Choose <a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/401k-esg-funds-51625256336?tesla=y\" target=\"_blank\">ESG</a>\n Funds.<br>\n <br>\n 15 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>If <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b79e4cd4-e288-4083-a976-47f3e89a0209\" target=\"_blank\">PwC</a>\n is planning to expand their headcount by more than 1/3 in the coming\n five year, most of it driven by ESG issues, you can expect that this is\n a trend with legs.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Jun 21 - Comment: <em>There has recently been a groundswell of\n interest in ESG products, with <a href=\"https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/qanda-how-to-build-better-portfolios-with-esg-etfs/ar-AAKE2hj\" target=\"_blank\">$21.5b</a>\n in inflows in Q1 2021, setting a new record, according to Morningstar.\n Numbers like this suggest the rise in ESG interest is only going to\n continue.<br>\n </em><br>\n 31 May 21 - Comment: <em>This is still very much a growth area, judging\n by the quantity of news reports, from a range of publications, both in\n the US and worldwide. And moreover, thus far in the US, they appear to\n be <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-may-be-willing-to-sacrifice-returns-for-esg-but-heres-where-they-havent-had-to-says-deutsche-bank-11622150288\" target=\"_blank\">outperforming</a>\n the market. For as long as these trends ensue, ESG growth can be\n expected to remain substantial.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 May 21 - Comment: <em>QoQ comparison is useful. Morningstar reported\n US sustainable funds in Q1 of 2021 witnessed <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/esg-investing-continues-attract-record-123512611.html\" target=\"_blank\">$21.5b</a>\n in net inflows, which is higher than the previous record of $20.5b\n achieved in Q4 of 2020.<br>\n </em><br>\n 25 May 21 - Comment: <em>General trends seem positive for renewable\n energy and interest in enviro-friendly sector is still garnering\n headlines.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 May 21 - Comment: <em>Spotlight <a href=\"https://www.pionline.com/esg/bill-seeks-clarify-esg-responsibilities-under-erisa\" target=\"_blank\">remains</a>\n on sustainable funds.<br>\n </em><br>\n 17 May 21 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-sustainable-trend%3A-taking-stock-of-esg-performance-and-flows-2021-05-14\" target=\"_blank\">Q1</a>\n have seen over 100% increase in inflows, but that pace may be hard to\n sustain throughout 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 May 21 - Comment: <em>So far, YoY Q1 is more than 100%, so will that\n continue? New infrastructure plan will continue to cause <a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/why-electric-vehicle-stocks-could-see-a-big-recovery-in-2021-301291421.html\" target=\"_blank\">inflows</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>Here's an informative <a href=\"https://www.businessinsider.com/esg-investing\" target=\"_blank\">article</a>\n that provides a clear distinction between ESG investing, socially\n responsible investing (SRI), and impact investing and their growing\n popularity. Meanwhile, to a <a href=\"https://www.cfodive.com/news/esg-investing-fails-to-outperform-study/599546/\" target=\"_blank\">study</a>\n by Scientific Beta says an analysis of the returns from ESG goals\n reveals no outperformance when adjusted for risk.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 May 21 - Comment: <em>The Oracle of Omaha <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2021/05/02/buffett-shares-his-unconventional-views-on-esg-investing/?sh=39dcf5914347\" target=\"_blank\">isn't</a>\n a fan of ESG. This could be the start of the disenchantment, and perhaps\n a pullback. But maybe not so much this year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 May 21 - Comment: <em>There's \"no hotter area\" on Wall Street than ESG\n with sustainability-focused funds nearing <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/theres-no-hotter-area-on-wall-street-than-esg-with-sustainability-focused-funds-nearing-2-trillion.html\" target=\"_blank\">$2t</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>According to the new Morningstar report, Q1 2021\n is $21.5b vs $10.4b in Q1 2020, which is over 100%, but I am not sure if\n this pace is sustainable throughout whole 2021.</em><br>\n <br>\n 30 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>The continuing <a href=\"https://www.napa-net.org/news-info/daily-news/has-esg-investing-reached-critical-mass\" target=\"_blank\">spotlight</a>\n on <a href=\"https://www.consultancy.eu/news/6109/global-media-coverage-of-esg-investment-has-exploded\" target=\"_blank\">ESG</a>\n investing shows <a href=\"https://www.accountancydaily.co/cfos-need-embrace-esg-reporting-says-gartner\" target=\"_blank\">no</a>\n sign, yet, of being switched off.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>With the administration declaring that we need a\n green economy, no doubt more funds will flow into companies that profess\n to be green.<br>\n </em><br>\n 23 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>It would be difficult to miss the surge of\n interest in ESG investing, but \"starting around February, while most of\n the rest of the financial markets were doing pretty much what they've\n been doing for more than a decade, the ESG category started to quietly\n and almost uniformly <a href=\"https://www.investmentnews.com/keeping-esg-investment-performance-in-perspective-205547\" target=\"_blank\">decline</a>.\"\n This trend may suggest a smaller annual flow increase than \"more than\n 100%\" threshold.</em><br>\n <br>\n 16 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>According to WSJ, in Q1 2021, exchange-traded\n ESG portfolios listed in the US took in <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/you-want-to-invest-responsibly-wall-street-smells-opportunity-11618586074\" target=\"_blank\">$14.8b</a>\n in new money. At this rate, that would equate to $59.2b for the year -\n an $8.1b increase over 2020. Such an increase would be far, far less\n than \"more than 100%\" threshold.</em><br>\n <br>\n 10 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>While ESG may be popular, especially with the\n press, individual investors must deal with their existing positions as\n well as plan for the future. Thus, inertia will also play a role in how\n fast this style is embraced.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Apr 21 - Comment: <em>If Google <a href=\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;geo=US&amp;q=ESG\" target=\"_blank\">searches</a>\n of ESG are a useful proxy, then we're looking at about a 60% increase.\n This idea came courtesy of the CFA Institute <a href=\"https://www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/survey/future-of-sustainability.ashx\" target=\"_blank\">report</a>\n on ESG, which also says that among the investment professionals they\n surveyed, about one-third have dedicated ESG specialists, while many\n investment organizations do not have specialists because \"they are too\n small to justify the cost of an employee, their strategies do not\n require it, or they outsource much of this work.\" This implies some\n limit on how quickly this can grow.<br>\n </em><br>\n 03 Apr 21 - BlackRock report <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-powerful-new-financial-argument-for-fossil-fuel-divestment\" target=\"_blank\">says</a>\n divested portfolios \"outperformed their benchmarks.\" Comment: <em>A\n report by BlackRock, the world's largest investment house, could boost\n sustainable investing.</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>With discourse promoting ESG investment, \"Higher\n by more than 100%\" is becoming more likely, but a few potential risks:\n (1) stock market correction; (2) the terms of ESG criteria being\n tightened up (time is probably too short for this to occur during 2021\n however); (3) ESG funds not outperforming rival vehicles.</em><br>\n <br>\n 27 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>Recent trends and press hype make \"Higher by\n more than 100%\" seem more likely, but a stock market correction may\n reduce the pace of mutual fund inflows.</em><br>\n <br>\n 26 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>If stock market holds up, \"Higher by more than\n 100%\" becomes more likely.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Mar 21 - Vanguard is beefing up its <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/vanguard-is-beefing-up-its-esg-staffing-are-more-sustainable-investing-funds-on-the-way-11615591361\" target=\"_blank\">ESG</a>\n staffing. Comment: <em>It feels like the momentum is building.</em><br>\n <br>\n 21 Mar 21 - Comment: <em>We're observing an improving political and\n geopolitical <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/22319488/china-biden-alaska-blinken-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\">agreement</a>\n over climate change, and an increasing push for ESG-related activities\n from companies. 2020 investing doubled from 2019; the upwards pressure\n hasn't abated.</em><br>\n <br>\n 15 Mar 21 - The Biden administration made five <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/bhaktimirchandani/2021/03/15/five-ways-the-biden-administration-advanced-sustainable-investing-in-its-first-50-days-including-two-last-week/\" target=\"_blank\">strides</a>\n in sustainable investing during its first 50 days in office. Comment: <em>The\n first three ways focus on the broader government-wide mandate on climate\n change mitigation. The other two ways are DOL's decision not to enforce\n the rules the Trump administration imposed late last year, and potential\n SEC action to implement an ESG disclosure system.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Mar 21 - The Department of Labor is making it easier to invest in ESG\n funds in <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/11/biden-admin-making-it-easier-to-invest-in-esg-funds-in-401k-plans.html\" target=\"_blank\">401(k)</a>.\n Comment: <em>This starts the process, which involves seeding funds and\n improving visibility, all of which should increase flows.</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>ESG investment is still a clear area of growth\n and discussion. US re-entry to Paris Agreement is likely to contribute\n to sustaining this growth. The probability of new investment vehicles\n that could highlight ESG criteria may also be of <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbusinesscouncil/2021/02/09/three-unexpected-trends-driving-2021-esg-inflection/?sh=6c278ca04400\" target=\"_blank\">note</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 24 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Bloomberg Intelligence <a href=\"https://www.etfexpress.com/2021/02/19/296137/bloomberg-intelligence-reports-10-times-rise-esg-etf-inflows-2018\" target=\"_blank\">reports</a>\n 10 times rise in ESG ETF inflows since 2018.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Feb 21 - Comment:<em> There is definitely <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1019195/a-broken-record-flows-for-us-sustainable-funds-again-reach-new-heights\" target=\"_blank\">momentum</a>\n for ESG funds, so \"at or below 2020 levels\" is unlikely.</em><br>\n <br>\n 04 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Not only are ESG funds in vogue, but sustainable\n equity funds significantly <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1017056/sustainable-equity-funds-outperform-traditional-peers-in-2020\" target=\"_blank\">outperformed</a>\n relative to their traditional fund peers in 2020. Three out of four\n placed in their category's top half, and far more sustainable funds\n ranked in the top quartile (42%) than in the bottom quartile (6%). This\n strong performance will only serve to draw more investors.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Feb 21 - Comment: <em>Despite large increases in 2020, the annual net\n flows into sustainable funds are still small, compared to the total\n financial market. And <a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/02/new-idea-fighting-climate-change-retirement-plans-betterment/617909/\" target=\"_blank\">green</a>\n news will focus the attention.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Jan 21 - US sustainable funds again reach new heights - <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1019195/a-broken-record-flows-for-us-sustainable-funds-again-reach-new-heights\" target=\"_blank\">Morningstar</a>.\n Comment: <em>The US is clearly still a growth area for such funds, with\n the inauguration of the Biden administration and the forthcoming COP26\n summit. On the other hand, a <a href=\"https://ifamagazine.com/article/advisers-expect-half-recommended-assets-will-be-esg-within-five-years/\" target=\"_blank\">case</a>\n can be made for a slower and more gradual rise.<br>\n </em><br>\n 29 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>A lot of money is looking for a home at present.</em><br>\n <br>\n 12 Jan 21 - Comment: <em>I am inclined to see the environmental focus of\n the Biden administration as a signal to climb aboard the ESG train.\n That's where the new money will be spent, rather than the fossil\n fuel-based economy.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Dec 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/21/sustainable-investing-accounts-for-33percent-of-total-us-assets-under-management.html\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC</a>\n notes ESG investments are surging, now accounting for 33% of total US\n assets under management: \"Assets managed with environmental, social and\n governance considerations continue to surge. And while still largely\n driven by institutional investors, the retail side is growing\n dramatically.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 28 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>President-elect Joe Biden's cabinet choices\n appear as good <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbisnoff/2020/12/14/esg-investing-a-sizzling-sector-that-will-get-even--hotter-under-president-biden/?sh=49d4b6ce3302\" target=\"_blank\">news</a>\n to ESG proponents. His choices for regulators also look to be\n ESG-friendly. During what would become Trump's final year in office, the\n DOL and SEC proposed a series of rules detrimental to ESG investing;\n however, the final rule was dialed down with the removal of the term\n ESG.</em><br>\n <br>\n 17 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>According to <a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-pile-into-etfs-devoted-to-socially-responsible-esg-11608114604\" target=\"_blank\">WSJ</a>,\n Expectations for new legislation of the Biden administration aimed at\n combating climate change are likely to stoke demand for ESG funds over\n the coming years. </em><br>\n <br>\n 08 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>Everything I'm looking at <a href=\"https://www.funds-europe.com/esg-report-winter-2020/the-global-landscape-spinning-on-a-sustainable-axis\" target=\"_blank\">suggests</a>\n ESG growth is going to continue in the short to medium term.</em><br>\n <br>\n 03 Dec 20 - Comment: <em>US SIF Foundation's 2020 biennial \"Report on US\n Sustainable and Impact Investing Trends\" was released on Monday, showing\n a 42% increase in sustainable investing assets from 2018, now worth <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/esg-investing-now-accounts-for-one-third-of-total-u-s-assets-under-management-11605626611\" target=\"_blank\">$17.1tn</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 29 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Probable market and economic bounce-back\n following developments over Covid vaccine allows me to zero out A, for\n now, at least. </em><br>\n <br>\n 25 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>The general view is that the ESG trend will be\n accelerated due to <a href=\"https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/how-the-pandemic-is-fuelling-an-unprecedented-explosion-in-esg-investing-20201112\" target=\"_blank\">Covid</a>\n as a way to tap down on systemic risk. Also, a <a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-a-biden-administration-will-boost-esg-and-impact-investing-01604961238\" target=\"_blank\">raft</a>\n of <a href=\"https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-presidency-means-capitalism-leading-economic-expert-2020-11\" target=\"_blank\">articles</a>\n say <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1011098/sustainability-matters-biden-administration-will-improve-regulatory-climate-for-sustainable-investing\" target=\"_blank\">Biden</a>\n will be favorable to ESGs.</em><br>\n <br>\n 24 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Biden's new people at Labor and SEC could make\n some changes. But they may not be appointed until March, and any new\n rule making has to have a comment period, etc. Then there could be\n lawsuits to challenge the rule-making.</em><br>\n <br>\n 23 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>I'm forecasting 15% for flat or lower investment\n levels. This is something that happened in 2015, and came close in 2017\n and 2018.</em><br>\n <br>\n 15 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>A <a href=\"https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/death-by-style-box\" target=\"_blank\">contrarian</a>\n view that \"ESG is going to get throttled for the next six months, for\n reasons that have nothing to do with ESG. Of course, ESG went up in the\n first place for reasons that had nothing to do with ESG.\"</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Morningstar anticipates the Biden administration\n will look to promptly clarify or reverse some of the Trump\n administration's recent <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1011098/sustainability-matters-biden-administration-will-improve-regulatory-climate-for-sustainable-investing\" target=\"_blank\">anti-ESG</a>\n rules.</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/analysis/4009648/esg-blog-stocks-and-bonds-with-higher-esg-ratings-outperform-in-2020-fidelity%20\" target=\"_blank\">Fidelity</a>\n finds that stocks with an ESG rating of 'A' outperformed the MSCI AC\n World index.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>Not the US (yet) but <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a09a59d7-0284-4d29-a71e-37e92e5cc69a\" target=\"_blank\">Scottish\n Widows</a> is dumping 440m pounds of company holdings that fail ESG\n tests.</em><br>\n <br>\n 06 Nov 20 - Comment: <em><a href=\"https://www.globest.com/2020/11/06/blackstone-doubles-down-on-esg-with-new-hire/?slreturn=20201026163617\" target=\"_blank\">Blackstone</a>\n has increased its commitment to ESG investing. Also looking for <a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/2a8d7fac-5ab6-43e5-9e04-8e9b3adfd195\" target=\"_blank\">standards</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 05 Nov 20 - Comment: <em>More reporting that sustainable investing is <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/sustainable-investing-is-surging-how-to-decide-if-its-right-for-you.html\" target=\"_blank\">surging</a>.</em><br>\n <br>\n 31 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Trump's <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-labor-rule-discouraging-esg-investing-in-retirement-plans-is-finalized-over-swell-of-objections-11604089492\" target=\"_blank\">DOL\n </a>limits the ability to recommend ESGs, but it's likely the Biden\n administration will overturn those rules. However, will they do it by\n early enough next year to have an effect on this question? There's risk\n that these rule changes will act as a brake for next year.</em><br>\n <br>\n 15 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>If we see a downturn or flat market for 2021,\n flows to all stocks including ESG could be significantly lower.</em><br>\n <br>\n 14 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>This article says that nearly <a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1001497/how-one-blackrock-portfolio-tweak-unleashed-a-flood-of-esg-demand\" target=\"_blank\">1/4</a>\n of all inflows to \"sustainable strategies\" through August went into one\n specific ETF, the iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF (ticker ESGU).</em><br>\n <br>\n 13 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Hesitant to forecast a continuation of the huge\n 2019 jump until I have a better grasp of why the annual flows were\n essentially flat from 2014-18.</em><br>\n <br>\n 11 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>There is plenty of scope for growth in ESG fund\n investment in the <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/02/esg-index-funds-hit-250-billion-as-us-investor-role-in-boom-grows.html\" target=\"_blank\">US</a>,\n in particular.</em><br>\n <br>\n 09 Oct 20 - Comment: <em>Given the continuing growth of interest in the\n area of sustainable funds, not least at an institutional level, Bin A\n seems unlikely to be in play, short of a severe economic downturn\n reducing the value of invested funds in general.</em><br>\n <br>\n <br>\n <hr><small>Copyright 2021 by Good Judgment Inc. This presentation is\n solely for informational purposes. The information contained herein are\n not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. No\n representation or warranty (express or implied) is provided with respect\n to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of this presentation. The\n future is inherently uncertain, and investors should exercise prudence\n and their own judgment in making investment decisions. Neither Good\n Judgment nor any of its directors, employees, or agents accept any\n liability for any loss (direct or indirect), including investment loss,\n or damage arising out of the use of the information herein. Any opinions\n expressed in this document may change without prior notice.</small><br>\n </div>\n <script type=\"text/javascript\">(function(){window['__CF$cv$params']={r:'66ecd0652deef001',m:'68cb5d8eb1507fe7b09045a9ece194d52cb79f8e-1626287340-1800-AUZXh/IqG4KFC/PTW8Q2gZ7w8wfkRWeZ11r0xlKFyEFGOG0z3vi4mwLxiF3D5TGzntGzcehpqhMuMdsBDkxXn4ctpvt9Zg4lhJqLpNZxuRIuFf6NyOwV1Y3OAn56Vsa3EwszNP+aAo0DLuCI/T4n22b1v4BNf2WMs9WBVEsEbGHi',s:[0xd9615b1021,0x8c0495c460],}})();</script>\n \n\n<br>"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "At or below 2020 levels, Higher by between 0% and 100%, Higher by more than 100%"
},
{
"title": "When will the FDA and/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2083-when-will-the-fda-and-or-cdc-recommend-that-at-least-some-americans-fully-vaccinated-for-covid-19-receive-a-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shot",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/health/pfizer-waning-immunity-bn/index.html), [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-pfizer-biontech-booster-shot-delta-variant-emergency-use-authorization/)). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that \"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time\" ([hhs.gov](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/07/08/joint-cdc-and-fda-statement-vaccine-boosters.html)). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:39.565Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "67",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
},
{
"title": "What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2082-what-will-chinese-ride-hailing-company-didi-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Soon after its IPO in the US, DiDi Global Inc. faced a barrage of regulatory scrutiny from Chinese authorities ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/02/didi-shares-fall-after-china-announces-cybersecurity-review.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/12/is-there-any-hope-left-for-didi-globals-ipo/)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DIDI)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 billion",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:42.450Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "27",
"numforecasters": "20",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive, More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion, Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive, More than $70 billion, DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2084-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-egypt-and-ethiopia-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute ([Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-ethiopia-military-solution-gerd-dispute), [Egypt Independent](https://egyptindependent.com/egypt-fm-slams-ethiopian-remarks-on-military-confrontation-over-gerd/), [Africa Report](https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:44.750Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "34",
"numforecasters": "32",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US Congress agree to a new budget resolution?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2080-when-will-the-us-congress-agree-to-a-new-budget-resolution",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Senate Democrats announced a new proposed budget deal designed to sidestep a filibuster ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/schumer-to-push-infrastructure-bill-budget-resolution-this-week.html), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/13/democrats-spending-plan-biden-agenda-499593), [Senate Glossary](https://www.senate.gov/reference/glossary_new.htm#B), [House Budget Committee](https://budget.house.gov/publications/fact-sheet/budget-reconciliation-basics)). The last budget resolution was agreed to by the House and Senate on 5 February 2021 ([Congress.gov - S.Con.Res.5](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-concurrent-resolution/5/text), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/05/964365980/senate-passes-budget-resolution-vice-president-harris-breaks-tie)). Legislation asserting the force and effect of a budget resolution would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 9 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
"probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:47.035Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "21",
"numforecasters": "15",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 9 August 2021, Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
},
{
"title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2081-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-fewer-than-1-3-million-travelers-per-day-for-three-consecutive-days",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/united-airlines-demand-recovers-despite-delta-variant.html)). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 April 2022",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:50.078Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "35",
"numforecasters": "28",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021, Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022, Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022, Not before 1 April 2022"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2079-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS ([WBUR](https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/06/28/the-prime-effect-inside-amazon-web-services), [Protocol](https://www.protocol.com/enterprise/aws-amazon-cloud-antitrust), [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-jassy-aws-amazon-spin-off-break-up-tim-bray-2021-2), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:51.985Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "41",
"numforecasters": "38",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2078-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-chile",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election ([Rio Times](https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/mercosur/chile/sichel-and-boric-presidential-candidates-of-the-right-and-left-in-chile/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/two-political-upstarts-notch-upset-wins-chiles-presidential-primaries-2021-07-19/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-18/chile-holds-key-primary-vote-in-wide-open-presidential-race)). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed ([AS/COA](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/2021-elections-latin-america-preview)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Gabriel Boric",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sebastián Sichel",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another candidate",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:54.709Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "47",
"numforecasters": "31",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Gabriel Boric, Sebastián Sichel, Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022"
},
{
"title": "When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2077-when-will-the-7-day-average-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-the-uk-next-fall-below-15-000",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK began facing a new surge in COVID-19 cases in late June 2021 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/19/1017877573/england-has-lifted-most-of-its-covid-19-restrictions), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/uk-closely-watched-with-its-vaccine-program-and-surge-in-cases.html)). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK government under \"Cases by date reported\" ([Coronavirus.data.co.uk](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases)). If the question is still open as of 17 December 2021, data available for resolution will be evaluated on 24 December 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 11 September 2021",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 18 December 2021",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:01:57.714Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "82",
"numforecasters": "45",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 11 September 2021, Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021, Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021, Not before 18 December 2021"
},
{
"title": "What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2076-what-will-be-the-annual-change-in-the-uk-s-consumer-prices-index-cpi-for-november-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/uk-inflation-jumps-to-2point5percent-in-june.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57826826)). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the \"CPI ANNUAL RATE\" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7g7/mm23)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.7%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4.1% or more",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:00.523Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "31",
"numforecasters": "25",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive, More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%, Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive, More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%, 4.1% or more"
},
{
"title": "Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2070-will-haiti-hold-a-presidential-election-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/haiti-moves-constitutional-referendum-september-2021-06-29/)). The assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/07/americas/haiti-explainer-jovenel-moise-assassination-cmd-intl/index.html), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07/10/world/jovenel-moise-assassinated#haiti-elections)). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/07/1095542)). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:02.659Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "65",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which driver will win the 2021 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2069-which-driver-will-win-the-2021-formula-one-world-drivers-championship",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world ([F1 Chronicle](https://f1chronicle.com/what-is-formula-1/)). The final grand prix of the year is scheduled for 12 December 2021 in Abu Dhabi ([Formula 1](https://www.formula1.com/en/racing/2021.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lewis Hamilton",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sergio Perez",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Verstappen",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another driver",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:05.734Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "59",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lewis Hamilton, Sergio Perez, Max Verstappen, Another driver"
},
{
"title": "Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2073-will-ashraf-ghani-either-flee-afghanistan-or-cease-to-be-its-president-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/taliban-says-it-controls-85-of-afghanistan), [Military Times](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/07/08/biden-defends-afghanistan-pullout-as-taliban-gains-ground/)). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:07.844Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "87",
"numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2071-will-the-us-fully-evacuate-or-lose-control-of-its-embassy-in-kabul-afghanistan-before-1-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/12/us/politics/us-diplomats-afghanistan-taliban.html), [Military Times](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/07/08/biden-defends-afghanistan-pullout-as-taliban-gains-ground/), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/04/27/991260914/state-department-orders-departure-of-nonessential-personnel-from-kabul-embassy)). The safety of the US embassy is a concern ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/02/taliban-us-embassy-kabul-497815), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/03/politics/us-evacuation-plans-afghanistan-embassy/index.html)). A lockdown alone would not count ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/17/1007805629/outbreak-of-over-100-covid-19-cases-sends-u-s-embassy-in-afghanistan-into-lockdo)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:09.918Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "74",
"numforecasters": "56",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2072-what-will-be-total-opec-crude-oil-production-for-october-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "There is ongoing disagreement within OPEC regarding crude oil production ([Business Times](https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/opec-yet-to-make-progress-in-resolving-impasse-sources), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/opec-spat-likely-to-be-resolved-sooner-rather-than-later-analyst.html), [World Oil](https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/7/12/expect-tight-oil-supplies-in-august-as-key-opec-output-deadline-nears)). The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d\" table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report ([OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm)). The July 2021 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 26,034 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in June 2021 ([OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm), see Table 5 - 7 on page 49 in the document). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and closed when the October 2021 data are released, scheduled for November 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 25,500 tb/d",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 25,500 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28,500 tb/d or more",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:12.449Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "39",
"numforecasters": "24",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,500 tb/d, Between 25,500 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive, More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d, 28,500 tb/d or more"
},
{
"title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2074-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-12-november-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Brazil is struggling to bring COVID-19 under control amidst continued domestic political acrimony over the response ([The Week](https://theweek.com/jair-bolsonaro/1002291/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-rocked-by-scandal-over-alleged-covid-19-vaccine), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57733540)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 12 November 2021 will be assessed on 18 November 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 22 million",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28 million",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:15.112Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "53",
"numforecasters": "31",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 22 million, Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive, More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million, Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive, More than 28 million"
},
{
"title": "When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2075-when-will-600-million-people-in-india-have-received-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "As the worst of the spring spike in COVID-19 cases in India has subsided, officials are racing to vaccinate Indians before a third wave strikes ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/13/india-covid-vaccine-rollout-hit-by-hesitancy-and-supply-snags), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57804713)). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government ([India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare](https://www.mohfw.gov.in/)). Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row and the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; six hundred million (600,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 60 crore (60,00,00,000).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 12 November 2021",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:17.594Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "77",
"numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 September 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021, Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021, Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021, Not before 12 November 2021"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2066-before-1-january-2022-will-the-european-commission-ec-recommend-that-the-council-of-the-european-union-authorize-the-ec-to-open-negotiations-with-taiwan-on-an-investment-agreement",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan ([Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/article/meps-push-brussels-follow-biden-taiwan-trade-eu-parliament-china/), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/AFET-PR-691427_EN.pdf)). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council ([EC](https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf), [European Parliament - Question to Commission](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691_EN.html), [European Parliament - Commission Response](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2021-001691-ASW_EN.html)). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 ([EC](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_13_458), [EC](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_2541)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:19.680Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "71",
"numforecasters": "48",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2067-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-the-global-cryptocurrency-market-on-9-december-2021-according-to-coinmarketcap",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 9 December 2021 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 10 December 2021 ([CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $1.0 trillion",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $2.5 trillion",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:22.585Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "100",
"numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $1.0 trillion, Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive, More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion, Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive, More than $2.5 trillion"
},
{
"title": "What will be the value of the S&amp;P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2068-what-will-be-the-value-of-the-s-p-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-index-for-october-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/22/homes/us-home-prices-and-existing-home-sales-may-feseries/index.html), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/home-price-gains-in-april-truly-extraordinary-sp-case-shiller-says.html)). The outcome will be determined using S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower than 250.00000",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 280.00000",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:25.074Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "91",
"numforecasters": "51",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 250.00000, Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive, Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000, Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive, Higher than 280.00000"
},
{
"title": "As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2062-as-of-1-november-2021-will-waka-kotahi-list-321-or-more-qualifying-electrical-vehicle-ev-charging-stations-as-available-in-new-zealand",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The EV charging station network in New Zealand is expanding ([Stuff](https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/evs/124892166/new-zealands-ev-charging-network-continues-to-expand)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Waka Kotahi, New Zealand's transport agency ([Waka Kotahi](https://www.journeys.nzta.govt.nz/ev-chargers)). The site includes a live map and table of qualifying charging stations. Data on the \"Table view\" will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00 pm ET on 1 November 2021. For more on \"qualifying\" stations, see \"Minimum requirements for the nationwide network\" ([Waka Kotahi](https://nzta.govt.nz/planning-and-investment/planning/transport-planning/planning-for-electric-vehicles/national-guidance-for-public-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure/enabling-a-nationwide-network-of-public-charging-infrastructure/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:27.310Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "56",
"numforecasters": "27",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2063-how-many-new-york-city-eviction-filings-will-be-reported-for-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/nyregion/new-york-city-eviction-moratorium.html), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-government-and-politics-adc276892d87afbdfff9e1a7f750f91e), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/the-eviction-moratorium-is-killing-small-landlords-says-one.html)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 ([Eviction Lab](https://evictionlab.org/eviction-tracking/get-the-data/)). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with \"New York\" under the \"Site\" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the \"filings_2020\" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 60,000",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 240,000",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:36.091Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "31",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 60,000, Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive, More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000, Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive, More than 240,000"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2064-before-1-august-2021-will-legislation-authorizing-or-enabling-an-extension-or-replacement-of-the-cdc-s-nationwide-eviction-moratorium-past-31-july-2021-become-law",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0624-eviction-moratorium.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/24/1009828802/cdc-extends-eviction-moratorium-for-30-days)). On 29 June 2021, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, rejected a request for the moratorium to be blocked, with Justice Kavanaugh noting that he believes \"clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary\" for another extension ([US Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a169_4f15.pdf), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/560837-supreme-court-leaves-cdc-eviction-moratorium-intact)). Legislation of nationwide applicability with exceptions would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:38.020Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "121",
"numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2061-will-the-median-price-of-a-house-in-new-zealand-exceed-nz-870-000-in-december-2021-according-to-reinz",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/10/house-prices-in-australia-and-new-zealand-among-worlds-fastest-growing-in-2021), [Newshub](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/06/new-zealand-tops-bloomberg-real-estate-risk-rankings-as-oecd-house-prices-reach-unprecedented-levels.html)). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 ([REINZ](https://www.blog.reinz.co.nz/reports)). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:40.072Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "60",
"numforecasters": "37",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2060-will-a-member-of-the-forces-from-an-african-country-other-than-mozambique-be-killed-in-a-lethal-confrontation-in-cabo-delgado-before-1-april-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56441499), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/23/mozambique-tanzania-sign-deal-to-join-fight-against-armed-groups), [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/southern-africa/mozambique/stemming-insurrection-mozambiques-cabo-delgado)). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) \"approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado,\" though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined ([SADC](https://www.sadc.int/news-events/news/communique-extraordinary-summit-sadc-heads-state-and-government/), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/23/southern-african-nations-agree-to-deploy-forces-to-mozambique), [Translators Without Borders](https://translatorswithoutborders.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Mozambique-Cabo-Delgado-Province-Language-Map.png)). For the purposes of this question, \"forces\" means national military forces or law enforcement.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:42.088Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "93",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US FDA approve a drug used to reverse the effects of Alzheimer's disease on the brain and/or approve a vaccine to prevent Alzheimer's disease as of 2035?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2056-will-the-us-fda-approve-a-drug-used-to-reverse-the-effects-of-alzheimer-s-disease-on-the-brain-and-or-approve-a-vaccine-to-prevent-alzheimer-s-disease-as-of-2035",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Alzheimer's disease accounts for 60-80% of dementia cases ([Alzheimer's Association](https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/what-is-alzheimers)). The outcome will be determined using available FDA approval data available as of 31 December 2035. \"Expanded access/compassionate use,\" \"accelerated approval,\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would not count ([FDA - Expanded Access](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA - Accelerated Approval](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/information-health-care-professionals-drugs/accelerated-approval-program), [FDA - Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:44.061Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "124",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many opioid overdoses resulting in death will occur in the US in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2055-how-many-opioid-overdoses-resulting-in-death-will-occur-in-the-us-in-2026",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Deaths attributed to opioid overdoses reached a record high in 2019 ([National Institute on Drug Abuse](https://www.drugabuse.gov/drug-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates)). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC's WONDER database ([CDC - WONDER](https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10.html)). To access the relevant data as of the launch of this question, click the \"I Agree\" button, navigate to the \"Request Form\" tab, change \"Group Results By\" to \"Year.\" Next under \"6. Select underlying cause of death,\" select UCD - ICD-10 Codes and expand the section on \"V01-Y90 (External causes of morbidity and mortality)\" to find and select the following codes: X40, X41, X42, X43, X44, X60, X61, X62, X63, X64, X85, Y10, Y11, Y12, Y13, and Y14. Under \"7. Select multiple cause of death,\" select \"MCD - ICD-10 Codes\" and expand the section on \"S00-T98...\" to find and select T40.0, T40.1, T40.2, T40.3, T40.4, and T40.6. Move these codes to the top box on the left, \"Select records with any of these items,\" and then click \"Send.\" As of this question's launch, the total for 2019 was 49,860 deaths.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 25,000",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 70,000",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:47.298Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "103",
"numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive, More than 70,000"
},
{
"title": "When will the first human have lived for 180 consecutive Earth days on or under the surface of the moon?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2058-when-will-the-first-human-have-lived-for-180-consecutive-earth-days-on-or-under-the-surface-of-the-moon",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Various countries are working on plans to return to the moon ([NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-gauges-industry-interest-for-long-term-moon-landing-services), [The Space Review](https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4176/1)). Conducting flights while living on the moon that do not leave the orbit of the moon would not reset the total consecutive days lived count. Being on an orbiting space station would not constitute a flight.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 2030",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2030 and 2039",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2040 and 2049",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 2050",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:49.939Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "148",
"numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 2030, Between 2030 and 2039, Between 2040 and 2049, Not before 2050"
},
{
"title": "How many RNA vaccines and therapeutics for humans will be FDA-approved as of 2031?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2057-how-many-rna-vaccines-and-therapeutics-for-humans-will-be-fda-approved-as-of-2031",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Researchers see a great deal of potential in using ribonucleic acid (RNA) technologies in medicine ([Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03068-4), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/01/health/mrna-vaccines-covid-future/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using FDA data available as of 31 December 2031. \"Expanded access/compassionate use,\" \"accelerated approval,\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would not count ([FDA - Expanded Access](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA - Accelerated Approval](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/information-health-care-professionals-drugs/accelerated-approval-program), [FDA - Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). Approvals of modified formulations of the same vaccine and/or therapeutic to treat different variants of the same disease would not count (e.g., Pfizer getting approval of a modified form of its vaccine to protect against a new variant of COVID-19).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 10",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 10 and 100, inclusive",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100 but fewer than 250",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 250 and 500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 500",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:52.985Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "122",
"numforecasters": "91",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 10, Between 10 and 100, inclusive, More than 100 but fewer than 250, Between 250 and 500, inclusive, More than 500"
},
{
"title": "Will the Nobel Foundation announce that artificial intelligence has won or would be eligible to win a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2036?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2059-will-the-nobel-foundation-announce-that-artificial-intelligence-has-won-or-would-be-eligible-to-win-a-nobel-prize-in-physiology-or-medicine-before-2036",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Currently, only persons have ever won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, though organizations have won others ([Nobel Prize - Statutes](https://www.nobelprize.org/about/statutes-of-the-nobel-foundation), [Nobel Prize - Nomination and selection of Medicine Laureates](https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/medicine/)).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:55.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "147",
"numforecasters": "123",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054-will-at-least-3-5-million-people-in-new-zealand-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-before-30-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for \"second doses administered\" ([NZ Ministry of Health](https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data)). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:02:57.568Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2053-will-the-us-truck-tonnage-index-reach-or-exceed-120-0-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/truck-tonnage-index.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics ([BTS](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/osea/seasonaladjustment/?PageVar=TRUCK)). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:00.057Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "93",
"numforecasters": "49",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate ([Yahoo](https://news.yahoo.com/rubio-pushes-for-new-china-sanctions-amid-questions-over-coronavirus-lab-leak-theory-210036093.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/wuhan-lab-leak-sanctions-republicans-a2b98782-17f6-4d9c-b016-8da0885796e1.html), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-02/lab-leak-theory-s-revival-risks-upending-any-u-s-china-detente)). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/17/asia/us-hong-kong-china-sanctions-intl-hnk/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-xinjiang-sanctions/u-s-sanctions-two-more-chinese-officials-over-alleged-xinjiang-abuses-idUSKBN2BE289), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-beijing-south-china-sea-coronavirus-pandemic-china-01a64686a1b740b919af7b9d32d1c295)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:02.083Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "120",
"numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 ([BLS - PPI](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/archived-producer-price-index-detailed-report-information.htm)). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% ([BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021](https://www.bls.gov/ppi/detailed-report/ppi-detailed-report-may-2021.pdf), see page 49). For historical data, visit https://www.bls.gov/ppi/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.0%",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5%",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:04.463Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "29",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0%, Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive, More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%, Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive, More than 5.5%"
},
{
"title": "When will the percentage of adults in US households that are teleworking because of the coronavirus pandemic fall below 18.0%?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2049-when-will-the-percentage-of-adults-in-us-households-that-are-teleworking-because-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-fall-below-18-0",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined by the latest data from the US Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, which covers the \"percentage of adults living in households where at least one adult has teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic in the last 7 days\" ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=TELEWORK_2)). Under \"Select an Estimate,\" choose \"Telework (because of coronavirus),\" click \"OK,\" and reference the data for the United States as a whole. Click the \"Week\" button under \"Map and Chart Display\" for survey results across time periods. As of 7 June 2021, 24.5% of adults in the United States were living in households where at least one adult has teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic in the last 7 days. For historical data from August 2020 through March 2021, see \"Telework (substituted for in person work)\" here: https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/?measures=TELEWORK&amp;periodSelector=27.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 6 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6 July 2021 and 16 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 17 August 2021 and 27 September 2021",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 28 September 2021 and 8 November 2021",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 9 November 2021",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:07.216Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "156",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 6 July 2021, Between 6 July 2021 and 16 August 2021, Between 17 August 2021 and 27 September 2021, Between 28 September 2021 and 8 November 2021, Not before 9 November 2021"
},
{
"title": "How many thousand tonnes (kt) of paper and paperboard will be produced globally in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2050-how-many-thousand-tonnes-kt-of-paper-and-paperboard-will-be-produced-globally-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Paper and paperboard products include newsprint, copy paper, and newspapers; multiple factors have been influencing paper production in recent years ([Fastmarkets](https://www.risiinfo.com/industries/pulp-paper-packaging/graphic-paper/), [Fisher International](https://www.fisheri.com/blog/pulp-paper-industry-2020-year-in-review)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ([FAO.org](http://www.fao.org/forestry/statistics/80571/en/)). The most recent report can be obtained by selecting \"Pulp and paper capacities, 2019-2024.\" The relevant data can be found in the table titled \"PAPER AND PAPERBOARD (4)\" on page 68 under the \"Total Product\" column. In 2019, the total reported production was 333,726 thousand tonnes (kt).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 320,000 kt",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 320,000 kt and 340,000 kt, inclusive",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "360,000 kt or more",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:09.988Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "67",
"numforecasters": "33",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 320,000 kt, Between 320,000 kt and 340,000 kt, inclusive, More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt, 360,000 kt or more"
},
{
"title": "When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2047-when-will-covid-19-cases-caused-by-the-delta-variant-b-1-617-2-exceed-350-000-in-the-uk",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/delta-variant-is-linked-to-90-of-covid-cases-in-uk), [Public Health England](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993879/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf), [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1513)). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 ([Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-case-data-11-june-2021)). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "On or before 14 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15 July and 28 July 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 29 July and 11 August 2021",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 12 August 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:12.975Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "461",
"numforecasters": "125",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "On or before 14 July 2021, Between 15 July and 28 July 2021, Between 29 July and 11 August 2021, Not before 12 August 2021"
},
{
"title": "Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045-will-the-closing-price-of-brent-crude-oil-be-higher-than-70-00-per-barrel-on-30-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:15.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "187",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2048-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-headline-inflation-in-the-us-as-measured-by-the-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-june-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in July 2022 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For May 2021, the rate was 5.0%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 0.0%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5.0% or more",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:18.214Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "322",
"numforecasters": "235",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.0%, Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive, More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%, Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive, More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%, 5.0% or more"
},
{
"title": "At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2041-at-close-of-business-on-3-november-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 2-3 November 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Same",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:20.910Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
{
"title": "What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2044-what-will-be-the-global-price-of-wheat-in-november-2021-according-to-the-imf",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Rising global food prices are a growing concern ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/3/global-food-prices-surge-again-stoking-inflation-fears)). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PWHEAMTUSDM)). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower than $220.00/MT",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than $340.00/MT",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:23.768Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "133",
"numforecasters": "47",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than $220.00/MT, Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive, Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT, Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive, Higher than $340.00/MT"
},
{
"title": "What will be the closing value of the S&amp;P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2040-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-june-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPX:IND)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3,800",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,100 but less than 4,400",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,700 but less than 5,000",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5,000 or more",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:33.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "101",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3,800, Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive, More than 4,100 but less than 4,400, Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive, More than 4,700 but less than 5,000, 5,000 or more"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2038-before-1-january-2022-will-the-us-intelligence-community-publicly-state-that-a-laboratory-accident-is-a-more-probable-scenario-for-the-inception-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-than-it-having-emerged-naturally-through-contact-with-infected-animals",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Debate on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic has regained salience ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57268111), [Science Magazine](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1), [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57267729)). On 27 May 2021, the ODNI issued a press release stating that the U.S. Intelligence Community had “coalesced around two likely scenarios: either it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident. While two elements of the IC lean toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements within the IC do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other” ([Office of the Director of National Intelligence](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2021/item/2218-odni-statement-on-covid-19-origins)). President Biden has asked for further reporting on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic ([Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/26/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-the-investigation-into-the-origins-of-covid-19/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/us/politics/coronavirus-origins-intelligence.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57260009)). For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/dni/icd/icd-203.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:35.960Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "331",
"numforecasters": "191",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2032-what-will-us-holiday-season-retail-sales-be-for-2021-relative-to-the-2020-holiday-season",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/14/retail-sales-april-2021.html), [RetailWire](https://www.retailwire.com/discussion/will-closing-stores-on-thanksgiving-become-the-new-retail-tradition/)). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas\" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 ([Census.gov](https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html)). To retrieve the data, under the \"Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report\" section, select \"Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series.\" Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select \"Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services,\" (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select \"44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas,\" (4) select \"Sales - Monthly,\" (5) select \"U.S. Total,\" and leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The same or lower for 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by 7.5% or more",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:38.891Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "82",
"numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The same or lower for 2021, Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%, Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive, Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%, Higher by 7.5% or more"
},
{
"title": "When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2034-when-will-people-in-guangdong-no-longer-be-required-to-show-a-negative-covid-19-test-in-order-to-leave-the-chinese-province",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In late May 2021, China imposed travel restrictions and other measures to address a new outbreak of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province, which includes the city of Guangzhou ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/china-coronavirus-pandemic-health-6bc2733209ab5e2f9371cd6b09b84263), [Guangzhou International](http://www.gz.gov.cn/guangzhouinternational/home/citynews/content/post_7319149.html), [Global Times](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1225576.shtml)). Requirements specific to certain cities or otherwise made below the level of the Guangdong provincial government would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 11 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 11 July 2021 and 11 August 2021",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 12 August 2021 and 11 September 2021",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 12 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:41.871Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "48",
"numforecasters": "21",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 11 July 2021, Between 11 July 2021 and 11 August 2021, Between 12 August 2021 and 11 September 2021, Between 12 September 2021 and 11 October 2021, Not before 12 October 2021"
},
{
"title": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2037-which-country-will-win-the-2020-olympic-gold-medal-in-women-s-football-soccer",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The women’s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 ([Olympics](https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/football-schedule)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Great Britain",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Netherlands",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United States",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another country",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No gold medal will be awarded for this event",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:44.670Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "188",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Great Britain, Japan, The Netherlands, United States, Another country, No gold medal will be awarded for this event"
},
{
"title": "Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033-will-any-four-week-average-of-us-field-production-of-crude-oil-exceed-12-million-b-d-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47056), [USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/07/covid-19-us-oil-industry-wyoming-texas-baker-hughes/5735992002/)). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=wcrfpus2&amp;f=4)). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 ([EIA STEO June 2021](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/jun21.pdf), see Table 4a).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:46.394Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "47",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2036-will-great-britain-win-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020-olympics-than-the-people-s-republic-of-china",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 ([Olympics](https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:48.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "201",
"numforecasters": "128",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2035-which-country-will-win-the-2020-olympic-gold-medal-in-men-s-synchronized-3-meter-springboard-diving",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving final is scheduled for 28 July 2021 ([Olympics](https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/schedule/diving-schedule)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "China",
"probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Great Britain",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Russia (Russian Olympic Committee)",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another country",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No gold medal will be awarded for this event",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:51.692Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "113",
"numforecasters": "51",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "China, Germany, Great Britain, Russia (Russian Olympic Committee), Another country, No gold medal will be awarded for this event"
},
{
"title": "What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2030-what-will-be-the-us-domestic-box-office-gross-in-the-opening-weekend-for-the-next-james-bond-film-no-time-to-die",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig for the fifth time as James Bond, is the 25th installment in the Bond movie franchise ([IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2382320/)). The outcome will be determined with \"Domestic Weekend\" data for the weekend of 8-10 October 2021 as reported by Box Office Mojo ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl4077159937/)). If the release date is postponed beyond 2021, the question will be voided. The opening weekends for the last two Bond films totaled:\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:54.612Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "169",
"numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148), No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714), No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall"
},
{
"title": "How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2028-how-many-total-major-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-will-occur-in-the-atlantic-ocean-in-the-2021-hurricane-season-according-to-the-national-hurricane-center",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2021 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2021 to 30 November 2021, will be \"above-normal\" ([NOAA](https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season)). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center ([National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc), [National Hurricane Center - Reports](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "2 or fewer",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or more",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:03:58.072Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "211",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more"
},
{
"title": "When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2031-when-will-the-uk-have-vaccinated-80-or-more-of-its-18-and-over-population-with-a-full-course-of-a-covid-19-vaccine",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using data from the UK government ([Coronavirus.data.gov.uk](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations)). See \"Vaccination uptake, by report date,\" and select \"UK Total.\" If the UK government changes how it reports vaccination data (e.g., including the administration of single-dose vaccines), we will provide clarifying language as necessary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57283837)). As of 2 June 2021, full course uptake in the UK was 50.7%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 August and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:01.178Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "385",
"numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021, Between 1 August and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
},
{
"title": "Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2018-will-nfl-quarterback-aaron-rodgers-sign-a-player-contract-with-an-nfl-team-other-than-the-green-bay-packers-before-9-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31359453/aaron-rodgers-want-return-green-bay-packers-sources-say), [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/aaron-rodgers-landing-spots-six-teams-that-make-the-most-sense-including-the-draft-stock-rich-eagles/), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/sports/aaron-rodgers-mike-tirico)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:03.817Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "75",
"numforecasters": "35",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020-will-the-us-civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-reach-or-exceed-63-0-for-any-month-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering ([Pew Research](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/14/u-s-labor-market-inches-back-from-the-covid-19-shock-but-recovery-is-far-from-complete/), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/archive-e81b08cff90641cb99f50a14588ffe2e), [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stimulus-coronavirus-fears-labor-market-shortage)). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% ([BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_01082021.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:06.116Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "173",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2022-which-major-cryptocurrency-will-perform-best-between-27-may-2021-and-29-november-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined by data from CoinDesk, using the \"1y\" chart, by dividing the price dated 29 November 2021 (PT) by the price dated 27 May 2021 (PT), which were:\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Bitcoin",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cardano (Ada)",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Etherium",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "XRP (Ripple)",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:09.171Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "195",
"numforecasters": "79",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin, Cardano (Ada), Etherium, XRP (Ripple)"
},
{
"title": "What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2017-what-will-be-the-annualized-rate-of-housing-starts-for-october-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/home-construction-sees-biggest-drop-since-pandemic-hit-heres-why.html), [Fool](https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-market/articles/what-goes-up-must-come-down-or-must-it/), [Housing Wire](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fannie-mae-alters-its-2021-forecasts/)). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.4 million",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.0 million",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:12.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "176",
"numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million, Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive, More than 2.0 million"
},
{
"title": "Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2011-before-8-january-2022-will-facebook-allow-donald-trump-to-post-on-facebook-and-or-instagram-from-any-of-his-verified-accounts",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules ([Oversight Board](https://oversightboard.com/decision/FB-691QAMHJ/), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/05/07/994436847/what-we-learned-about-facebook-from-trump-decision), [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/facebook-oversight-board-member-trump-ban-rules-michael-mcconnell)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:14.798Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "166",
"numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2009-will-the-us-announce-a-reduction-or-elimination-of-total-punitive-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market ([Mortgage News Daily](http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05072021_lumber_prices.asp), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/05/business/lumber-prices-home-building-costs/index.html)). A \"punitive tariff\" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty ([Reference for Business](https://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Thir-Val/Trade-Barriers.html)). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 ([PR Newswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-us-lumber-coalition-us-department-of-commerce-confirms-continued-canadian-softwood-lumber-subsidies-and-dumping-in-first-annual-administrative-review-301179961.html), [NAHB Now](https://nahbnow.com/2020/12/commerce-department-cuts-lumber-tariffs-from-20-to-9/)). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 26 May 2021: New product exceptions to the punitive tariffs alone would not count.\nNOTE 24 June 2021: A punitive tariff reduction announced after an increase made during the question's open period would count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:16.547Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "58",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2007-before-1-september-2021-will-justice-stephen-breyer-announce-his-retirement-from-the-us-supreme-court",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/06/politics/breyer-democrats-retirement-talk/index.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/551196-court-watchers-buzz-about-breyers-possible-retirement)). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:19.211Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "305",
"numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2006-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-13-august-2021-according-to-fivethirtyeight",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page ([FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/)). As of 3 May 2021, Biden's approval rating was 53.5%. The data will be accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower than 45.0%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55.0% or higher",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:21.886Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "575",
"numforecasters": "180",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 45.0%, Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive, Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%, 55.0% or higher"
},
{
"title": "Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2010-before-14-december-2021-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines ([USTR.gov](https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2021/may/statement-ambassador-katherine-tai-covid-19-trips-waiver), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/05/05/993998745/biden-backs-waiving-international-patent-protections-for-covid-19-vaccines), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-19-vaccine-patents-dominate-global-trade-talks-2021-05-05/)). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states ([WTO](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm), [SDG Knowledge Hub](https://sdg.iisd.org/commentary/policy-briefs/as-vaccine-roll-out-begins-wto-members-intensify-debate-over-policy-solutions/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:23.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "151",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2001-according-to-the-infinite-dial-2022-what-percentage-of-the-us-population-will-have-listened-to-a-podcast-in-the-last-month",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March ([Edison Research](https://www.edisonresearch.com/the-infinite-dial/)). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ \"listened to a podcast in the last month\" ([The Infinite Dial 2021](http://www.edisonresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/The-Infinite-Dial-2021.pdf), see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 25 May 2021: The question is concerned with the 12+ age group as reported by The Infinite Dial.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 42%",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 42% and 44%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 44% but less than 48%",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "48% or more",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:32.251Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "237",
"numforecasters": "104",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 42%, Between 42% and 44%, inclusive, More than 44% but less than 48%, 48% or more"
},
{
"title": "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2004-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-40-million-or-more-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-india",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "India has faced a monumental surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths since April 2021 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56913047), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/india-coronavirus-health-41a6a064b0d22b0ed4d2d1753e4ff31c)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). Data will be accessed as necessary no later than 2 October 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:34.994Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "577",
"numforecasters": "102",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021, Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
},
{
"title": "Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2005-will-a-new-collective-bargaining-agreement-cba-between-major-league-baseball-and-the-major-league-baseball-players-association-be-ratified-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Baseball club owners and the players union have begun negotiations for a new CBA ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31298306/mlb-union-meet-1st-cba-talks-sources-say), [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/rob-manfred-optimistic-mlb-mlbpa-can-avoid-work-stoppage-after-2021-season/)). The current CBA is due to expire on 1 December 2021 ([Bleacher Nation](https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/04/21/players-and-mlb-finally-begin-cba-negotiations/), [MLBPA](https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:37.348Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "75",
"numforecasters": "28",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2003-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-authorized-for-emergency-use-or-approved-by-the-us-fda-as-of-31-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues ([FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA - Emergency Use Authorization](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 14 May 2021: The authorization/approval of an EUA amendment for a modified vaccine would not count (e.g., https://www.fda.gov/media/142749/download, see Appendix 2).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "2 or fewer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or more",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:39.795Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "230",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2002-will-us-print-book-sales-in-2021-exceed-those-in-2020",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year ([Publishing Perspectives](https://publishingperspectives.com/2021/01/npd-2020-was-the-us-markets-bestselling-year-for-print-in-a-decade-covid19/), [Publishers Weekly](https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/85256-print-unit-sales-rose-8-2-in-2020.html)). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group ([The NPD Group](https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/news/press-releases/2021/after-a-slow-start--u-s--print-book-sales-rose-8-2-percent-in-2020--the-npd-group-says/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:42.198Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "325",
"numforecasters": "139",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1994-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 21-22 September 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Same",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:44.876Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "154",
"numforecasters": "63",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
{
"title": "Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1993-before-16-december-2021-will-the-federal-reserve-announce-it-will-reduce-its-monthly-quantitative-easing-bond-buying",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually ([Market Watch](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-will-gradually-cut-its-bond-market-footprint-some-think-this-year-11616722109), [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/federal-reserve-to-taper-bond-buying-in-fourth-quarter-economists/articleshow/82255972.cms)). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month\" ([Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210428a.htm)). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial ([NY Fed](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 May 2021: The question is concerned with the total of $120 billion per month, irrespective of the specific levels of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities being purchased.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:46.970Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "243",
"numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995-will-us-federal-legislation-implementing-or-authorizing-a-mandatory-carbon-pricing-mechanism-become-law-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States ([Harvard Environmental &amp; Energy Law Program](https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI(2020)649352_EN.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system ([World Bank](https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing)). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System ([European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en)), the California Cap-and-Trade Program ([California Air Resources Board](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program)), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative ([RGGI](https://www.rggi.org/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:49.836Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "119",
"numforecasters": "68",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1991-between-30-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-times-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56487162), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-sanctions/eu-agrees-china-sanctions-over-xinjiang-abuses-first-in-three-decades-idUSKBN2BE1AI), [EUR-Lex](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.LI.2021.099.01.0001.01.ENG&amp;toc=OJ%3AL%3A2021%3A099I%3ATOC), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/banking-and-finance/international-relations/restrictive-measures-sanctions_en)). The imposition of restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 May 2021: By way of example, if the EU imposes new restrictive measures on five individuals at once, that would count as one instance.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3 or more",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:52.411Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "194",
"numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1992-will-the-presidents-of-russia-and-ukraine-meet-in-person-before-1-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet amidst an increase in tensions in the Ukrainian Donbass region ([NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-orders-troops-withdraw-ukraine-border-after-buildup-alarmed-west-n1264912), [Unian](https://www.unian.info/politics/diplomacy-zelensky-putin-meeting-may-take-place-in-jerusalem-or-vienna-11405683.html), [US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-04-26/ukrainian-president-upbeat-on-chances-of-putin-meeting-and-new-ceasefire)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:54.845Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "273",
"numforecasters": "94",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine, Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982-before-1-january-2022-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-pla-and-or-people-s-armed-police-pap-engage-in-a-confrontation-with-hong-kongers",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-hongkong/), [UPI](https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/02/24/china-HongKong-police-army-marching/2941614176062/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56356046), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/hong-kong-freedoms-democracy-protests-china-crackdown)). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.        \nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:56.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "162",
"numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989-between-16-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-will-asml-obtain-an-export-license-from-the-netherlands-to-export-an-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-system-to-the-people-s-republic-of-china",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems ([ASML.com](https://www.asml.com/en)). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips ([Medium](https://medium.com/@ASMLcompany/a-backgrounder-on-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-a5fccb8e99f4), [ASML.com](https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems), [Laser Focus World](https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-does-the-laser-technology-in-euv-lithography-work)). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention ([Asia Times](https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/china-takes-first-baby-step-towards-chip-self-reliance/), [B1ts &amp; Ch1ps](https://bits-chips.nl/artikel/us-report-recommends-sinking-more-asml-exports-to-china/)). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:04:59.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "143",
"numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1987-following-the-2021-german-bundestag-elections-which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-new-government",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "With Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down, her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Germany in general face an uncertain political future ([Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/2021/03/26/six-months-ahead-of-germany-s-extraordinary-election-where-do-things-stand), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/cdu-csu-spd-afd-fdp-left-greens/a-38085900)). The election is scheduled to take place on 26 September 2021 ([Bundeswahlleiter.de](https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/2021.html), [Politico.eu](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/)). Members of other political parties joining a government would be immaterial. If, by 31 December 2021, no election is held or new elections are called with only a caretaker government put in place, the question will close as \"No government will be formed before 31 December 2021.\" \"The Green Party\" means the Alliance '90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 16 April 2021: We have added language to two of the bins to make them more clear.\nNOTE 16 April 2021: For the purposes of this question, a \"new government\" is formed when the chancellor and the cabinet are sworn in.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The CDU but not the Green Party",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Green Party but not the CDU",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Both the CDU and the Green Party",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither the CDU nor the Green Party",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No government will be formed before 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:02.163Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "411",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The CDU but not the Green Party, The Green Party but not the CDU, Both the CDU and the Green Party, Neither the CDU nor the Green Party, No government will be formed before 31 December 2021"
},
{
"title": "What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1988-what-will-happen-next-regarding-new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing calls to resign amid a series of sexual harassment allegations and questions about his handling of COVID-19 policy with nursing homes ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/US/timeline-accusations-york-gov-andrew-cuomo-calls-resignation/story?id=76207242), [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-cuomo-harassment-allegations-calls-to-resign-schumer-gillibrand/), [City &amp; State New York](https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/policy/health-care/timeline-cuomos-handling-covid-19-nursing-homes.html)). If Cuomo announces both that he will not seek reelection as governor and has resigned or will resign in the same statement, the question would close \"Cuomo will announce that he will resign as governor.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "None of these will occur before 1 April 2022",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:05.088Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "273",
"numforecasters": "105",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022, Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor, Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial, None of these will occur before 1 April 2022"
},
{
"title": "What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1986-what-will-be-saudi-arabia-s-crude-oil-production-for-july-2021-according-to-opec",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/saudi-arabia-said-to-plan-voluntary-oil-output-cut-in-february), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-opec-cuts-int/opec-extends-most-oil-output-cuts-into-april-saudi-keeps-voluntary-curb-idUSKBN2AW0WA), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4a88ce3e-42aa-43de-ae3f-cd6d10c1c9e4)). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d\" table in the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 ([OPEC](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm)). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) ([OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/images/content/publications/OPEC_MOMR_February-2021.pdf), see Table 5-8 on page number 47).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 8,000 tb/d",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 tb/d",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:08.298Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "527",
"numforecasters": "153",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 8,000 tb/d, Between 8,000 tb/d and 8,500 tb/d, inclusive, More than 8,500 tb/d but less than 9,000 tb/d, Between 9,000 tb/d and 9,500 tb/d, inclusive, More than 9,500 tb/d"
},
{
"title": "What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1981-what-will-be-the-chinese-renminbi-s-share-as-a-global-payments-currency-in-december-2021-according-to-swift",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "China is looking to advance the internationalization of the renminbi ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-yuan-breakingviews-idUSKBN29203Q), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-24/china-is-reconsidering-yuan-internationalization-strategy)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for December 2021 reported by SWIFT in its RMB Tracker monthly report when first released, expected in January 2022 ([SWIFT](https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre)). The relevant data can be found in the report's graph titled \"RMB's share as a global payments currency.\" In its March 2021 report, SWIFT reported the RMB's February 2021 share as a global payments currency at 2.20% ([SWIFT - March 2021 Report](https://www.swift.com/swift-resource/250411/download)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.00%",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3.00% or more",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:10.749Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "246",
"numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive, More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%, 3.00% or more"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1984-before-1-january-2022-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-limit-or-prohibit-us-federal-funds-from-being-used-to-purchase-face-recognition-technology",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-protests-facialrecognition/u-s-lawmakers-aim-to-curtail-face-recognition-even-as-the-technology-ids-capitol-attackers-idUSKBN29N23L), [ACLU](https://www.aclu.org/news/privacy-technology/biden-must-halt-face-recognition-technology-to-advance-racial-equity/), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/anatomy-biometric-laws-what-us-companies-need-to-know-2020)). The date an executive order or federal legislation would take effect is immaterial. A prohibition with specific exemptions would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:12.779Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "135",
"numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1985-will-the-eu-establish-a-moratorium-or-ban-on-the-use-of-facial-recognition-systems-frs-in-public-spaces-by-public-authorities-in-premises-meant-for-education-and-healthcare-and-or-by-law-enforcement-in-semi-public-spaces-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In January 2021, the European Parliament invited the European Commission to \"consider a moratorium on the use of FRS in public spaces by public authorities,\" among other things ([European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0009_EN.pdf), see #56, [ZD Net](https://www.zdnet.com/article/facial-recognition-tech-is-supporting-mass-surveillance-its-time-for-a-ban-say-privacy-campaigners/)). Whether a moratorium or ban is established through legislation and/or regulation is immaterial, as are when it would take effect and how long it would last. A moratorium or ban with specific exemptions would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:14.752Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "138",
"numforecasters": "69",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1973-will-scott-morrison-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-australia-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament ([ABC Australia](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/scott-morrison-missteps-fuel-frustration-within-the-coalition/100022234), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/23/australias-prime-minister-vows-to-clean-up-parliament-in-wake-of-new-allegations), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56261504)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:16.867Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "360",
"numforecasters": "178",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021:  Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:18.852Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "502",
"numforecasters": "239",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744)). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law ([CWC.gov](https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement), [Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf)). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:27.609Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "276",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $100 billion",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$180 billion or more",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:30.678Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "244",
"numforecasters": "53",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more"
},
{
"title": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Same",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:33.448Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "209",
"numforecasters": "94",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
{
"title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 25 March 2021: The question will close using the nominal figures as reported by FAO.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 100.0",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130.0",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:36.031Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "273",
"numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0"
},
{
"title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower than 1.7%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 3.1%",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:39.085Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "550",
"numforecasters": "143",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%"
},
{
"title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:41.586Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "418",
"numforecasters": "144",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $55 billion",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:44.189Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "537",
"numforecasters": "173",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 28 June 2021: A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:46.891Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "478",
"numforecasters": "169",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:49.041Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "162",
"numforecasters": "58",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:51.877Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "274",
"numforecasters": "136",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2 or more",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:54.411Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "199",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more"
},
{
"title": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:05:56.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1179",
"numforecasters": "489",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.4%",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.1%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:00.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "613",
"numforecasters": "155",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%"
},
{
"title": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.000",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.500",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:03.448Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "639",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500"
},
{
"title": "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:05.726Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "315",
"numforecasters": "84",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 19 April 2021: The question is concerned only with a bitcoin ETF, not a broader crypto ETF that may include bitcoin.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:08.671Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "237",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:11.104Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "342",
"numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 14 June 2021: The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:13.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "614",
"numforecasters": "132",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:15.373Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "182",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:24.979Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "564",
"numforecasters": "172",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:27.302Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "344",
"numforecasters": "187",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.\nNOTE 5 May 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew and participating in scientific research would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a \"space tourist flight.\"\nNOTE 7 June 2021: All passengers being referred to as members of a crew would not preclude a qualifying space flight from being a 'space tourist flight,' nor would particular training requirements for, or completion by, passengers and/or crew.\nNOTE 26 July 2021: lights with members of the Virgin Galactic's Space Advisory Board, as Virgin personnel, would not count. Also, test flights would not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, only SpaceX",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:29.783Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "395",
"numforecasters": "148",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:32.425Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "339",
"numforecasters": "119",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:34.154Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "337",
"numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:36.473Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "290",
"numforecasters": "127",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:38.541Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "464",
"numforecasters": "150",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3 or more",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:40.887Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "551",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
},
{
"title": "What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the \"Cumulative Gross\" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $1.75 billion",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:43.942Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "576",
"numforecasters": "121",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion"
},
{
"title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:46.642Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "377",
"numforecasters": "104",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:49.329Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "570",
"numforecasters": "125",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:51.221Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "305",
"numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?\nInformación adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:53.948Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "121",
"numforecasters": "56",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 226 seats",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "300 seats or more",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:06:57.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "414",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"
},
{
"title": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 18 September 2021",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:01.026Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "653",
"numforecasters": "112",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021"
},
{
"title": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:03.521Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "216",
"numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $150 billion",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:06.138Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "580",
"numforecasters": "123",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion"
},
{
"title": "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:08.805Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "354",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:11.502Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "225",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:13.845Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "573",
"numforecasters": "182",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:22.557Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "386",
"numforecasters": "118",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:24.773Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "164",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:27.639Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "313",
"numforecasters": "117",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.500",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3.000",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:30.880Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "501",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000"
},
{
"title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:33.797Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "387",
"numforecasters": "97",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Whether a launched stablecoin is backed by a single currency or multiple currencies is immaterial.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:36.110Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "314",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 9 June 2021: A negotiator agreement on the CAI is not synonymous with the EU signing the CAI. Please note the first link in the second sentence of the question description, particularly the section on Signing.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:38.645Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "868",
"numforecasters": "233",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, only by the FDA",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, only by the EMA",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:41.554Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "737",
"numforecasters": "255",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNote 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:44.370Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "399",
"numforecasters": "162",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:46.883Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "538",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:49.047Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "388",
"numforecasters": "151",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Yes, an announced release date of what would be the sixth book in the series would count even if the title is changed from \"The Winds of Winter.\"\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:51.702Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "147",
"numforecasters": "50",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file \"Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change.\" See the row designated \"10\" under \"SUMLEV\" and \"United States\" under \"NAME.\" The relevant data are titled \"INTERNATIONALMIG[year].\" For methodological information, see the \"Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population\" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:54.273Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "161",
"numforecasters": "69",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:56.300Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "580",
"numforecasters": "249",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:07:58.903Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "415",
"numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:00.778Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "816",
"numforecasters": "485",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:03.371Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "352",
"numforecasters": "152",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:05.909Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "294",
"numforecasters": "92",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or more",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:09.130Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "220",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:11.769Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "279",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:19.508Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1674",
"numforecasters": "543",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:21.957Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "508",
"numforecasters": "192",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:24.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1034",
"numforecasters": "193",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 24 May 2021: The question asks about an announcement by the United States Olympic Committee. Whether the US sends persons other than athletes (e.g., political dignitaries) is immaterial.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:26.927Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "999",
"numforecasters": "292",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed \"as of,\" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.\nNOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "2 or fewer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or more",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:29.465Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "578",
"numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more"
},
{
"title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:31.756Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "393",
"numforecasters": "161",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
"description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:33.684Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "896",
"numforecasters": "169",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 New York City Democratic mayoral primary (June 22, 2021)?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "For more information on the election : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scot Stringer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Kathryn Garcia, Scot Stringer, Someone else"
},
{
"title": "By the end of 2021, which scenario about the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic will the U.S. government officially consider more likely?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "On May 26, president Biden in a statement said the majority of the intelligence community had “coalesced” around two scenarios - animal link or lab leak - but “do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other.” He revealed that two agencies lean toward the animal link and “one leans more toward” the lab-leak theory, “each with low or moderate confidence.” He then ordered the intelligence community to come back to him in 90 days with a more definitive report. Resolution Criteria - Officially - The statement would have to be made or confirmed by a relevant member of the executive branch: the president, the director of national intelligence, the secretary of state, or the press secretary. - More likely - U.S. intelligence agencies report three levels of analytic confidence for their assessments: low, moderate, and high ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org)). To settle the question, the official statement would have to report an aggregate \"high\" or \"moderate to high\" confidence, across relevant intelligence agencies, that one scenario is the most likely. - Deadline - The question will be settled at the latest on Dec 31, 2021, but it would resolve as soon as the government announces that it has concluded that one scenario is more likely than the others. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Animal-to-human transmission",
"probability": 0.1388888888888889,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology",
"probability": 0.39814814814814814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Other origin",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Can't decide",
"probability": 0.4537037037037037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Animal-to-human transmission, Leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Other origin, Can't decide"
},
{
"title": "In 2021 which of these two U.S. politicians will lose his job first?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Mat Gaetz is a Republican congressman from Florida. Andrew Cuomo is the Democratic governor of New York State. Anything that results in either of them not being in their current job anymore counts as \"losing\" it.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.020202020202020204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mat Gaetz",
"probability": 0.5858585858585859,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither",
"probability": 0.393939393939394,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cuomo, Mat Gaetz, Neither"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0392156862745098,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9607843137254902,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.713Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.713Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, more than 121",
"probability": 0.2376237623762376,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No, not more than 121",
"probability": 0.7623762376237623,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.713Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, more than 121, No, not more than 121"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:23.713Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.03883495145631068,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.15533980582524273,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5922330097087378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.1262135922330097,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Pierre de Villiers, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse, Eric Piolle, Another woman, Another man"
},
{
"title": "French Regional Elections: How many regions will the Rassemblement National (extreme-right) win?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Zero",
"probability": 0.701923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "One",
"probability": 0.25961538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Two",
"probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Three or more",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two, Three or more"
},
{
"title": "How far will France go in the Euro 2021 soccer tournament?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of \"Far\" will close at : <li>100&#8461; if France wins the tournament; <li>80&#8461; if France loses in the final game; <li>60&#8461; if France loses in the semi-finals; <li>40&#8461; if France loses in the quarter-finals; <li>20&#8461; if France loses in the knockout phase; <li>0&#8461; if France loses in the group phase. Shares of \"Not far\" will close at : <li>0&#8461; if France wins the tournament; <li>20&#8461; if France loses in the final game; <li>40&#8461; if France loses in the semi-finals; <li>60&#8461; if France loses in the quarter-finals; <li>80&#8461; if France loses in the knockout phase; <li>100&#8461; if France loses in the group phase. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Far",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not far",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.269Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Far, Not far"
},
{
"title": "In France, which right-wing politicians will compete in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "There can be multiple correct answers. The shares of each correct answer will be worth 100ℍ / N (rounded to nearest integer), where N is the nicer of correct answers. The shares of the wrongs answers will be worthless (0ℍ). \"Compete\" means that the politician's name is on the ballot on election day.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.5882352941176471,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.04901960784313725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bruno Retailleau",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurent Wauquiez",
"probability": 0.0980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Baroin",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Édouard Philippe",
"probability": 0.1372549019607843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michel Barnier",
"probability": 0.0980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "None of the above",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.269Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Bruno Retailleau, Laurent Wauquiez, François Baroin, Édouard Philippe, Michel Barnier, None of the above"
},
{
"title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
"probability": 0.7582417582417582,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
"probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
"probability": 0.14285714285714288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
"probability": 0.02197802197802198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.269Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Macron and Le Pen, Macron, but not Le Pen, Le Pen, but not Macron, Neither of them"
},
{
"title": "What will be Emmanuel Macron's net popularity in the next IPSOS/Le Point poll (May = -17%)? ",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "We will judge this question based on the rolling IPSOS/Le Point poll available here : [https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/barometre-politique](https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/barometre-politique) The number of interest is the net popularity, computed as the difference between the \"% favorable\" and \"% unfavorable\" opinions. In reference poll in May (published in early June) Macron had a net popularity of -17% (with 40% favorable vs 57% unfavorable).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Higher (> -17%)",
"probability": 0.7475728155339806,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stable (= -17%)",
"probability": 0.11650485436893204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lower (< -17 %)",
"probability": 0.1359223300970874,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.269Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Higher (> -17%), Stable (= -17%), Lower (< -17 %)"
},
{
"title": "In France, which political outsiders will compete in the 1st round of the 2022 presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "There can be multiple correct answers. The shares of each correct answer will be worth 100ℍ / N (rounded to nearest integer), where N is the nicer of correct answers. The shares of the wrongs answers will be worthless (0ℍ).- To qualify as an \"Outsider\", the candidate must not have ever been a professional politician. - \"Compete\" means that the politician's name is on the ballot on election day.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Zemmour",
"probability": 0.42735042735042733,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Hanouna",
"probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michel Onfray",
"probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Didier Raoult",
"probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Marie Bigard",
"probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A yellow jacket personality",
"probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Assa Traoré",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "None of the above",
"probability": 0.5042735042735043,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Zemmour, Cyril Hanouna, Michel Onfray, Didier Raoult, Jean-Marie Bigard, A yellow jacket personality, Assa Traoré, None of the above"
},
{
"title": "French Regional Elections: which of these two JBs (juvenile beefcake) will score highest in the first round of the election in Ile de France?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Julien Bayou (green)",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jordan Bardella (extreme right)",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Julien Bayou (green), Jordan Bardella (extreme right)"
},
{
"title": "French Regional Elections: Will Xavier Bertrand win the Hauts-de-France region?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "French Regional Elections: Which leftist candidate will score highest in the first round in the Île-de-France region?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Clémentine Autin (communist)",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julien Bayou (green)",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Audrey Pulvar (socialist)",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Clémentine Autin (communist), Julien Bayou (green), Audrey Pulvar (socialist)"
},
{
"title": "French Regional Elections: Will the extreme right party Rassemblement National win the Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur region?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2571428571428571,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, who will succeed French prime minister Jean Castex?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The \"Jean Castex\" option will win if no one else succeeds him as prime minister in 2021. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jean Castex",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A woman",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Jean Castex, Another man, A woman"
},
{
"title": "Will Sanofi comercialize a Covid-19 vaccine under its brand in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7117117117117117,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.2882882882882883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",
"options": [
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.1075268817204301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"probability": 0.8709677419354839,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Same medals count",
"probability": 0.02150537634408602,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "France, Japan, Same medals count"
},
{
"title": "Will the new OSS 117 (August 4) have a better start at the French box office than the previous one? ",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "We will establish the results on the number of admissions over the first two weeks after the release of the film according to the site allociné.fr. The number of entrances for the previous movie were 1,7 million for the first two weeks. To see the trailer : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acodChVW100 ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:26.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:29.875Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abdelilah Benkirane",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else from PJD",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else not from PJD",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:29.875Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani, Abdelilah Benkirane, Someone else from PJD, Someone else not from PJD"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:29.877Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:29.878Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed",
"probability": 0.6631578947368421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abshir Aden Ferro",
"probability": 0.042105263157894736,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed",
"probability": 0.010526315789473684,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.042105263157894736,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No election in 2021",
"probability": 0.2421052631578947,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:29.878Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Abshir Aden Ferro, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Someone else, No election in 2021"
},
{
"title": "Which team will win the Euro 2020-21 soccer tournament?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the winning team will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Belgium",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "England",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Spain",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Italy",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Portugal",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rest of field",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Belgium, Germany, England, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Rest of field"
},
{
"title": "When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the \"Number of commercial flights...\" chart.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.7647058823529411,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.14705882352941177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.0784313725490196,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Q1, 2021 (or before), Q2, 2021, Q3, 2021, Q4, 2021, Maybe later"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.14018691588785046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.19626168224299065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.6542056074766356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "in Q1, 2021, in Q2, 2021, in Q3, 2021, in Q4, 2021, Perhaps later"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>",
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Worse than the 2012 record, Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012, Not worse than 2020"
},
{
"title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
"probability": 0.7884615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of the Green party",
"probability": 0.16346153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Marcus Söder (CSU), Armin Laschet (CDU), Another member of CDU/CSU, A member of SPD, A member of the Green party, Someone else"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Ashraf Ghani lose power in Afghanistan?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Ghani, president of Afghanistan, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Ghani has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Ivan Duque lose power in Colombia?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Duque, president of Colombia, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Duque has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the presidential election in Peru (June, 6th 2021)?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Pedro Castillo (radical left)",
"probability": 0.9509803921568627,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keiko Fujimori (populist right)",
"probability": 0.04901960784313725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Pedro Castillo (radical left), Keiko Fujimori (populist right)"
},
{
"title": "Will Obrador's political parti (MORENA) keep its absolute majority during the 2021 Mexican legislative elections? (June, 6th 2021)",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The election will take place on June 6th. The presidential party already has 253 seats out of a possible 500 (excluding alliances).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:32.362Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Marine Le Pen lead in the first round of the French presidential election of 2022?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=POL",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:39.700Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which threshold will Bitcoin hit first?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question starts on May 20, 2021, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of a bitcoin reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, according to Blockchain.com in this chart: [https://exchange.blockchain.com/trade/BTC-USD](https://exchange.blockchain.com/trade/BTC-USD)",
"options": [
{
"name": "USD 60,000",
"probability": 0.34615384615384615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "USD 20,000",
"probability": 0.6538461538461539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:41.808Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "USD 60,000, USD 20,000"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will the European Union include nuclear energy in its \"taxonomy\" of green energies?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The EU's [Sustainable Finance Taxonomy](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/business_economy_euro/banking_and_finance/documents/200309-sustainable-finance-teg-final-report-taxonomy_en.pdf), aka the \"green taxonomy\", is a project for the European classification of low-carbon or transitional economic activities designed to guide investments.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8461538461538461,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15384615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:41.809Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the new Bond film \"No Time to Die\" be released in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:41.809Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9797979797979798,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.020202020202020204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-06-27T12:11:41.809Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's \"primary\" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* \nThe relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (\"no measures\") rises at 45 or more in the \"7 days average\" version of the graph.\nIf OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of \"no measures for workplace closures.\" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.\n*For this question, \"no measures for workplace closures\" will correspond to a 0 for the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..\n",
"options": [],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase more than 0.6%?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.6% in June, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 16,
"yes_ask": 22,
"spread": 6,
"volume": 8258,
"open_interest": 4934
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US trade deficit in goods with China be above $30 billion?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the US trade deficit in goods with China is above $30 billion in May, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly trade balance in goods between the United States and China contained in Exhibit 19 of the US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900) report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.43000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 49,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 51,
"volume": 3508,
"open_interest": 3504
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will real GDP increase by more than 6%?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If real GDP increases by more than 6% in Q2 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The Advance Estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.10999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 87,
"yes_ask": 89,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 13620,
"open_interest": 9184
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will new U.S. home sales be above 750,000?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If new U.S. home sales are above 750,000 in June, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of seasonally adjusted “New Residential Sales” found in the monthly New Residential Sales report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 58,
"yes_ask": 61,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 7904,
"open_interest": 4518
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the global average temperature increases by more than 2.124℉ from 1880 to 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.7 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The mean Land-Ocean Temperature Index value reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (“GISS”). Specifically, the non-smoothed value of the Land-Ocean Temperature Index. (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 16,
"yes_ask": 17,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 13556,
"open_interest": 10560
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the target federal funds rate be above 0.25%?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the target federal funds rate exceeds 0.25% on the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.5 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The upper bound of the target federal funds range published on the Federal Reserve official website. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 2,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 17358,
"open_interest": 8732
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US trade deficit in goods with China for June be above $27 billion?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the US trade deficit in goods with China for the month of June is above $27 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.1 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly trade balance in goods between the United States and China contained in Exhibit 19 of the US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900) report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 72,
"yes_ask": 78,
"spread": 6,
"volume": 0,
"open_interest": 0
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for April exceed 365 million metric tons?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for April exceeds 365 million metric tons, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.6 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate for total carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Table 11.1 of the Monthly Energy Review published by the Energy Information Administration. (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 49,
"yes_ask": 52,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 7208,
"open_interest": 6020
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US trade deficit in goods with China for June be above $28 billion?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the US trade deficit in goods with China for the month of June 2021 is above $28 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.1 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of the seasonally adjusted monthly trade balance in goods between the United States and China contained in Exhibit 19 of the US International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900) report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 46,
"yes_ask": 47,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 652,
"open_interest": 420
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will federal student loan forbearance be extended?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If federal student loan forbearance is extended past September 30, 2021 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.9 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: Press releases published either on the Department of Education’s Press Releases portal or on the Biden White House’s “Statements and Releases Archive” section of the White House Briefing Room’s website. (https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/Kalshi+Source-Will+federal+student+loan+forbearance+be+extended_.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 67,
"yes_ask": 68,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 4774,
"open_interest": 2850
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) in July be above 5.7%?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the unemployment rate (U-3) is above 5.7% in July 2021 then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.10 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 62,
"yes_ask": 64,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 3342,
"open_interest": 2546
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will over 183,750,000 Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by July 11?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If over 183,750,000 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 38800,
"open_interest": 18616
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If there is no press release published by the IOC indicating that the Opening Ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics has occured on or by July 23, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No.. The resolution source is: The press releases posted on the official Olympics.com news section or in the IOC website’s news section. (https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/Kalshi+Source-Will+the+Tokyo+Summer+Olympics+be+cancelled_.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 1,
"yes_ask": 2,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 50666,
"open_interest": 33756
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Turkey join the European Union?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If Turkey joins the European Union by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.14 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The list of member countries of the European Union. (https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 944,
"open_interest": 824
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will New York City close indoor dining?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the New York State Governor’s Office issues an unretracted press release indicating that all indoor dining is shut down in New York City, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.13 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The press releases issued by the New York State Governor’s Office. (https://www.governor.ny.gov/news)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 22,
"yes_ask": 25,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 5700,
"open_interest": 4606
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album have at least twice the debut week consumption of “When We All Fall Asleep”?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the number of Album Units earned by Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album by August 5, 2021 is strictly greater than 718,920, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.8 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nBillie Eilish’s album “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?” earned 359,460 Album Units in its first week according to Alpha Data LLC.. The resolution source is: The number of Album Units, which includes both album sales and digital streams, earned by Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” album project, reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange’s agreement with Alpha Data LLC. (https://alphadata.fm/)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 15,
"yes_ask": 16,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 4742,
"open_interest": 3164
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If over 185,265,124 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.11 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.020000000000000018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 98,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 5350,
"open_interest": 3980
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will over 187 million Americans be vaccinated for COVID-19 by July 18?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If over 187 million Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.11 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 2,
"yes_ask": 3,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 8490,
"open_interest": 5542
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,007,179 for the week ending July 18, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,007,179 for the week ending July 11, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.020000000000000018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 97,
"yes_ask": 98,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 4922,
"open_interest": 3222
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,041,682 for the week ending July 18, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,041,682 for the week ending July 11, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 81,
"yes_ask": 85,
"spread": 4,
"volume": 25416,
"open_interest": 11708
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by more than 0.7% in July?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the CPI increases by more than 0.7% in July, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see rule 100.4 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The signed one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 40,
"yes_ask": 43,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 4258,
"open_interest": 2748
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will initial jobless claims be higher than 350,000 for the week ending July 17?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If initial jobless claims are greater than 350,000 for the week ending on July 17, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.18 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The advance figure for United States seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 44,
"yes_ask": 46,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 3116,
"open_interest": 1498
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 90° on Saturday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 17, 2021 is strictly greater than 90°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 17, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 9382,
"open_interest": 2152
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 83° on Sunday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 18, 2021 is strictly greater than 83°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 18, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 8110,
"open_interest": 2082
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 82° on Monday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 19, 2021 is strictly greater than 82°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 19, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 1,
"yes_ask": 2,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 18368,
"open_interest": 5112
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high temperature in New York City be over 89° on Tuesday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 20, 2021 is strictly greater than 89°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 20, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 10676,
"open_interest": 6304
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,055,206 for the week ending July 25, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,055,206 for the week ending July 18, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 6,
"yes_ask": 7,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 18322,
"open_interest": 3114
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If over 187,944,234 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 98,
"yes_ask": 99,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 23248,
"open_interest": 11144
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,207,341 for the week ending July 25, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,207,341 for the week ending July 18, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 59,
"yes_ask": 62,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 3686,
"open_interest": 1672
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Tuesday than last Tuesday? ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,832,878 on July 20, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,832,878 on Tuesday, July 13, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 4192,
"open_interest": 3506
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 88° on Wednesday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 21, 2021 is strictly greater than 88°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 21, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 2,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 3296,
"open_interest": 1212
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will total US credit card debt in Q2 be above 800 billion dollars?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If total US credit card debt in Q2 2021 is strictly greater than 800 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.22 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The total amount of US credit card debt reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Household Debt and Credit Report. (https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 12,
"yes_ask": 14,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 1560,
"open_interest": 1336
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 85° on Thursday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 22, 2021 is strictly greater than 85°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 22, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 5340,
"open_interest": 590
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Wednesday than last Wednesday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,900,945 on July 21, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,900,945 on Wednesday, July 14, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 1448,
"open_interest": 1394
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 82° on Thursday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 22, 2021 is strictly greater than 82°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 22, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 11564,
"open_interest": 3780
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 84° on Friday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 23, 2021 is strictly greater than 84°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 23, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 2760,
"open_interest": 354
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Thursday than last Thursday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,152,053 on July 22, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,152,053 on Thursday, July 15, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 6674,
"open_interest": 5220
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will initial jobless claims be higher than 380,000 for the week ending July 24?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If inital jobless claims are greater than 380,000 for the week ending on July 24, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.18 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The advance figure for United States seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor’s Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. (https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 69,
"yes_ask": 70,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 1396,
"open_interest": 814
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate be above 2.80%?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate for the week ending July 29, 2021 is above 2.80%, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.23 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage rate reported by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (“PMMS”). (http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 25,
"yes_ask": 27,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 1652,
"open_interest": 1172
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Friday than last Friday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,199,815 on July 23, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,199,815 on Friday, July 16, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 3332,
"open_interest": 3292
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 81° on Saturday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 24, 2021 is strictly greater than 81°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 24, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 5832,
"open_interest": 1206
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be over 65,000 new COVID-19 cases on Friday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 repoted on July 23, 2021 is greater than 65,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 reported on July 23, 2021, as recorded in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 2,
"yes_ask": 50,
"spread": 48,
"volume": 38276,
"open_interest": 14244
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the first week consumption of Kanye’s “Donda” album outperform “Jesus is King”?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the number of Album Units earned by Kanye West’s “Donda” album by July 29, 2021 is strictly greater than 269,301, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.24 in the Rulebook for details.\n\n Kanye’s album “Jesus is King” earned 269,301 Album Units in its first week according to Alpha Data LLC.. The resolution source is: The number of Album Units, which includes both album sales and digital streams, earned by Kanye West’s “Donda” album project, reported to the Exchange pursuant to the Exchange’s agreement with Alpha Data LLC. (https://alphadata.fm/)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 20378,
"open_interest": 11562
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Saturday than last Saturday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 1,979,981 on July 24, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 1,979,981 on Saturday, July 17, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 2248,
"open_interest": 308
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 84° on Sunday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 25, 2021 is strictly greater than 84°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 25, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 1,
"yes_ask": 3,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 3096,
"open_interest": 1682
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 89° on Monday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 26, 2021 is strictly greater than 89°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 26, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 1,
"yes_ask": 2,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 10754,
"open_interest": 5294
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Sunday than last Sunday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,227,704 on July 25, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,227,704 on Sunday, July 18, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 1540,
"open_interest": 1044
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be over 80,000 new COVID-19 cases on Sunday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 25, 2021 is greater than 80,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 12956,
"open_interest": 9738
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 91° on Tuesday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 27, 2021 is strictly greater than 91°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 27, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 12232,
"open_interest": 3208
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA this Monday than last Monday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If TSA airport screenings are above 2,141,429 on July 26, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.21 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nTSA airport screenings were 2,141,429 on Monday, July 19, 2021.. The resolution source is: The Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 0,
"yes_ask": 1,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 4592,
"open_interest": 2570
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the corporate tax rate be above 21%?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If a bill that has the effect of raising the top federal corporate income tax rate to be strictly greater than 21% becomes law, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.26 in the Rulebook for more information.. The resolution source is: The bills published on Congress.gov that have the status of “became law.” (https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B%22source%22%3A%22)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 46,
"yes_ask": 49,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 878,
"open_interest": 578
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people be screened by the TSA on average this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2,046,997 for the week ending August 1, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.15 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average TSA airport screenings were 2,046,997 for the week ending July 25, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Transportation Security Administration’s (“TSA”) checkpoint travel numbers data. (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 32,
"yes_ask": 35,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 972,
"open_interest": 872
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more Americans get vaccinated for COVID-19 this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If over 190,905,875 Americans are vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Expiration Date, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.20 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The number of people reported as receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as published by the CDC. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 65,
"yes_ask": 68,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 2422,
"open_interest": 1378
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more people ride the subway in New York City on average this week than last week?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If weekly average subway ridership in New York City is above 2,236,028 for the week ending August 1, 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.16 in the Rulebook for details.\n\nWeekly average subway ridership in New York City was 2,236,028 for the week ending July 25, 2021.. The resolution source is: The weekly average from Monday through Sunday of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (“MTA”) Day-by-Day ridership numbers. (https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 51,
"yes_ask": 52,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 128,
"open_interest": 108
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will new U.S. home sales be above 690,000 in July?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If new U.S. home sales are above 690,000 in July 2021, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.3 for more details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate of seasonally adjusted “New Residential Sales” found in the monthly New Residential Sales report published by the Census Bureau. (https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 23,
"yes_ask": 24,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 290,
"open_interest": 232
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will over 30,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported for Monday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 26, 2021 is greater than 30,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 99,
"yes_ask": 100,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 9164,
"open_interest": 3816
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the high in New York City be over 88° on Wednesday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 28, 2021 is strictly greater than 88°F, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.19 in the Rulebook for more details.. The resolution source is: The highest temperature recorded in Central Park, NY on July 28, 2021, as reported by the National Weather Service’s Daily Climate Report. (https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?date=&wfo=okx&sid=NYC&pil=CLI&recent=yes&specdate=2021-05-19+20%3A38%3A22)",
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"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 1,
"yes_ask": 2,
"spread": 1,
"volume": 178,
"open_interest": 126
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the estimated US carbon emissions for May be over 385 million metric tons?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the estimated US carbon dioxide emissions for May exceeds 385 million metric tons, then the market resolves to Yes. Else, the market resolves to No. Please see Rule 100.6 in the Rulebook for details.. The resolution source is: The preliminary estimate for total carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Table 11.1 of the Monthly Energy Review published by the Energy Information Administration. (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php)",
"options": [
{
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"probability": 0.49,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 48,
"yes_ask": 51,
"spread": 3,
"volume": 102,
"open_interest": 100
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will over 60,000 new COVID-19 cases be reported for Tuesday?",
"url": "https://kalshi.com",
"platform": "Kalshi",
"description": "If the number of new cases of COVID-19 reported for July 27, 2021 is greater than 60,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Else the market resolves to No. Revisions to the Underlying after the Expiration time on the Expiration Date for any reason will not be considered for Market Resolution. Please see Rule 100.25 for more details.. The resolution source is: The number of new cases of COVID-19 published in the CDC’s “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC,” which can be found in the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker. (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T21:26:08.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4,
"yes_bid": 75,
"yes_ask": 77,
"spread": 2,
"volume": 0,
"open_interest": 0
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "2022 Brazilian Presidential Election (void If No Election In 2022): To Win",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"description": "",
"options": [
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{
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{
"name": "Ciro Gomes",
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{
"name": "Luciano Huck",
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{
"name": "Fernando Haddad",
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{
"name": "João Amoêdo",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:54.472Z",
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Sergio Moro, João Doria, Ciro Gomes, Luciano Huck, Fernando Haddad, João Amoêdo"
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{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Election Winner",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:54.473Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jnr, Ivanka Trump, Mike Pence, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Nikki Haley, Oprah Winfrey, George Clooney, Pete Buttigieg, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, Dwayne Johnson, Mark Zuckerberg, Joe Biden, Andrew Yang, Kanye West, Tulsi Gabbard, Meghan Markle, Bernie Sanders, Matt Gaetz, Kamala Harris, Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, Bill Gates, Joe Rogan, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Joe Kennedy Iii, Charlie Baker, Beto O'Rourke, Ted Cruz, Mitt Romney, Amy Klobuchar, Nina Turner, Stacey Abrams, Dan Crenshaw, Chris Christie, Tucker Carlson, Andrew Cuomo, Josh Hawley, Condoleezza Rice, Katie Porter, Tom Cotton, Killer Mike, Val Demings, Keisha Lance Bottoms, Susan Rice, Mike Pompeo, George P Bush, Alveda King, Candace Owens, Mark Cuban, Tim Scott, Tammy Duckworth, Greg Abbott, Elon Musk, Larry Hogan, Paul Ryan, John Kasich, Karen Bass, Gavin Newsom, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Richard Grenell, Kayleigh McEnany, Chelsea Clinton, Ann Coulter, Rand Paul, Gretchen Whitmer, Susan Collins, Cory Booker, Sidney Powell, Marjorie Taylor Greene, John Ossoff, Kristi Noem, Jared Kushner, Gabriel Sterling, Justin Amash, Mike Lindell, Jim Justice, John James, Ben Sasse, Sarah Palin, Jeff Bezos, Sarah Sanders, Liz Cheney"
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{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Republican Nominee",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
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"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Cameron",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Fabricant",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Graham Brady",
"probability": 0.011836029107944759,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Osborne",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Francois",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margot James",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Bradley",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alan Mak",
"probability": 0.0030031715647024014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
"probability": 0.017754043661917136,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Theresa Villiers",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
"probability": 0.009009514694107204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0.023216826327122412,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julian Smith",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nadhim Zahawi",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jesse Norman",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nigel Adams",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Freeman",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Pursglove",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Therese Coffey",
"probability": 0.005976608757477056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Aaron Bell",
"probability": 0.0030031715647024014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:54.474Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Dehenna Davison, Rishi Sunak, Nickie Aiken, Lee Anderson, Claire Coutinho, Darren Henry, Alicia Kearns, Nicola Richards, Brandon Lewis, Eddie Hughes, Victoria Atkins, Suella Braverman, Neil O'Brien, Theresa May, Kwasi Kwarteng, Charles Walker, Ben Houchen, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, James Cleverly, Jeremy Hunt, Johnny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt, Rory Stewart, Ruth Davidson, Sajid Javid, Tom Tugendhat, Liz Truss, Nigel Farage, Matt Hancock, Priti Patel, Michael Gove, Gavin Williamson, Steve Baker, Geoffrey Cox, Kemi Badenoch, Andrea Jenkyns, Tobias Ellwood, Bim Afolami, Helen Whately, Steve Barclay, Damian Hinds, David Davis, Kit Malthouse, Mark Harper, Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey, David Cameron, Michael Fabricant, Graham Brady, George Osborne, Mark Francois, Margot James, Ben Bradley, Alan Mak, Ben Wallace, Theresa Villiers, Robert Jenrick, Robert Buckland, Alok Sharma, Grant Shapps, Julian Smith, Nadhim Zahawi, Jesse Norman, Nigel Adams, George Freeman, Tom Pursglove, Therese Coffey, Aaron Bell"
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish Independence Referendum: Year Of Next Official Referendum (Sanctioned by UK and Scottish Governments)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "2022",
"probability": 0.13095238095238093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
"probability": 0.13095238095238093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 2025",
"probability": 0.611111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
"probability": 0.04365079365079364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:08:54.474Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "2022, 2023, 2024, Not before 2025, 2021"
},
{
"title": "Biden to leave office in 1st term via Impeachment, Resignation or 25th Amendment",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38167938931297707,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6183206106870229,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Biden to serve full 1st term",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33333333333333337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump to be elected President as a third party candidate",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9803921568627451,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "2024 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump to run and win with over 75% of popular vote",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Conservatives to increase their majority from 2019 (80 seats)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Conservatives Do Not Win Most Seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Conservatives fail to win a majority",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5780346820809249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4219653179190751,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Lib Dems to win over 25 seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4444444444444444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5555555555555556,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Lib Dems to win over 40 seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Lib Dems to win over 60 seats",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Jeremy Corbyn to win any seat as an Independent at the Next General Election",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) writes](https://www.nti.org/learn/countries/north-korea/) that:\n\"North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in January 2003, is not a party to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and has conducted six increasingly sophisticated nuclear tests since 2006. The DPRK is not a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and is believed to possess a large chemical weapons program. Despite being a state party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and Geneva Protocol, evidence suggests North Korea may maintain an offensive biological weapons program.\nIn defiance of the international community, which has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea for its illicit behavior, the country has continued to escalate its WMD activities. In July 2017, North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and in September 2017 it conducted a test of what it claimed was a thermonuclear weapon.\"\nTensions between North Korea and other countries have been increased by the country's testing of nuclear weapons and [of missiles that may have sufficient range to reach the continental United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hwasong-15). As of 2020, the nuclear arsenal of North Korea was estimated at approximately [30 to 40 warheads](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction), with the sufficient production of fissile material for the creation of an additional 6 to 7 nuclear weapons a year. President Biden has warned Kim Jong-un that if production and testing of nuclear weapons continues, there will be a [US \"response.\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-arsenal-nukes.html)\nWill there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if there's an offensive detonation anywhere?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a reputable source that provides evidence of at least one fatality in North Korea from an offensive nuclear detonation before 2050. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. This question resolves negatively if that does not occur but there's an offensive nuclear detonation somewhere in the world before 2050. This question resolves ambiguously if no nuclear detonation (other than test detonations or peaceful nuclear explosions) occurs anywhere before 2050. \nIf information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to a resolution council or Metaculus admins.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6599999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:00.277Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=1949&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&amp;start=2007&amp;end=2019&amp;charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:05.653Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nBetween 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). \nMovements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.\nHow many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:16.239Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 62,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T22:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Following the financial crisis of 2008 which accompanied the Great Recession, the United States government has taken a multitude of measures to reduce the risk of another financial crisis. However, it remains difficult to know how effective these measures will be in preventing another crisis or mitigating its effects once one takes place.\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"great financial crisis\" is defined by reference to the weekly [Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI2) of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is constructed by extracting the component of principal variation from 18 different indicators of the state of financial markets using principal component analysis and is designed to serve as an overall measure of stress in financial markets. A \"great financial crisis\" is a crisis that's comparable to the crisis of 2008 by this metric.\nWhen will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?\nThe question resolves to the Friday of the earliest week after the opening date of the question for which the latest version of the Financial Stress Index Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (which is currently SLTFSI2 but might change in the future if further revisions are made to the index by the St. Louis Fed) exceeds its value for the week ending on October 3rd 2008. This value is currently 7.0144, but may be updated if FRED updates the index. If this event doesn't occur until the closing date of the question. the question resolves as &gt;2100. If the index is discontinued altogether, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:21.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:26.775Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 263,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7115/gavin-newsom-recall-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[After successfully collecting more than 1.5mm signatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/) Gavin Newsom is facing a recall election in 2021.\nThis question asks:\nWill Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?\nThe question will resolve on the basis of credible media reports. It does not matter when the election takes place. If a recall election does not take place before the 2022 gubernatorial election then this resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple recall elections prior to the 2022 gubernatorial election, only the first one counts.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:32.394Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 193,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Australia is a parliamentary monarchy, with a bicameral legislature elected to maximum three-year and six-year terms for the lower and upper house, respectively.\n[From Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election):\nThe next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.\nAll 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.\nThe incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several other parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.\nWill the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?\nThis question resolves positively if, following the next Australian federal election, the governor-general of Australia swears in a prime minister supplied by the Liberal/National Coalition.\nIt resolves negatively if the governor-general swears in a prime minister supplied by another party or coalition\nIf no party is able to form a stable government following the next election, the question will resolve according to the results of the first election where a party is able to form a stable government.\nIf the political structure of Australia is changed such that the head of government is no longer nominated by parties in a democratically elected house of the legislature, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nIf at any time at least 24 hours after polls open for the associated election, this question has a community prediction at least as confident as 4% or 96%, the question will close (but not resolve) 18 hours after that time.\n\"The next federal election\" refers to the election for members of the House of Representatives of the 47th parliament of Australia.\nNormally this would be at the same time as a half-Senate election (or a full Senate election in the case of a double dissolution), but in the unlikely event that the elections are held at different times, this question refers to the election for the House of Representatives only.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:38.096Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T15:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:43.553Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-09-30T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-11-10T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Modern visual creative tools like Adobe Creative and Clip Studio Paint already offer increasingly sophisticated AI-assisted editing. At the leading edge, technologies like [generative adversarial networks](https://medium.com/the-research-nest/generating-art-with-artificial-intelligence-powered-applications-276102955261) and [others](https://reposhub.com/python/deep-learning/lzhbrian-arbitrary-text-to-image-papers.html) may soon allow generating high-fidelity images of any desired content and style.\n[Weekly Shōnen Jump](https://www.viz.com/shonenjump) is a Japanese magazine that serializes ongoing manga series. It has by far the largest circulation of any manga magazine, and to draw a weekly manga published in Shōnen Jump is the pinnacle of achievement in the manga industry. Weekly manga chapters are typically about 16-20 pages long.\nWhen will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump?\nThis question resolves at the time that Weekly Shōnen Jump publishes at least ten magazine pages of content, in the same issue, credited in any part to an artificial intelligence or other computer program. It does not matter whether the content's appearance was paid-for, or on what terms it appeared in the magazine. The resolution value will be the publication date. If the upper bound of the forecasting period passes without this occurring, the question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:48.801Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-06-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&amp;P 500 correction?\nThe S&amp;P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:09:54.636Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7073/gb-rowing-at-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Along with cycling, British Rowing has been one of Team GB's most successful sports at the Olympics. The men's sweep[1] team have won gold at every Olympics since 1984, including GB's [only gold in 1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain_at_the_1996_Summer_Olympics) and winning the [coxless four at every Olympics since 2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_medalists_in_rowing_(men)#Coxless_four). \nHowever, there are reasons to doubt their success will continue into 2021.\n1-- \n[Jürgen Gröbler](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C3%BCrgen_Gr%C3%B6bler) the main coach retired in August 2020. He has been in integral part of British Rowing's set up for nearly 30 years\n2-- \nThe GB men's sweep squad has been much less successful at the World Championships over the last Olympic cycle. winning [no gold medals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_World_Rowing_Championships) and only winning 5 bronze medals in that period.\nWill GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020?\nResolves positive if Great Britain win a gold medal in the 2-, 4- or 8+ at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Resolves negatively if they do not and all three events take place in 2021. Otherwise resolves ambiguously.\n[1] Sweep rowing is a subset of rowing where the athletes each row with one oar. (As opposed to sculling, where each athlete carries two oars).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:00.023Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Kessler syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome) is a situation where a major satellite collision causes an increase in space junk, causing a cascading effect destroying many if not most other satellites.\nWe are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with space junk, yet these collisions are far too small to cause a runaway effect. Furthermore, action has been taken by the Federal Communications Commission to reduce the chance of this happening and regulations in the U.S. require all satellites launched after March 18, 2002 to be disposed of by controlled atmospheric reentry or a boost into a graveyard orbit after shutdown.\nIt is asked:\nBy 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk? \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:05.332Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 544,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-02-27T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:10.813Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 135,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea) is a country in East Asia, constituting the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. \nAccording to Article 1 of the state constitution, North Korea is an \"independent socialist state.\" It holds elections, though they have been described by independent observers as sham elections, as North Korea is a totalitarian dictatorship, with an elaborate cult of personality around the Kim dynasty: Il-sung, Jong-il, and [current leader Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un). The Workers' Party of Korea, led by a member of the ruling family, is the dominant party and leads the Democratic Front for the Reunification of Korea, of which all political officers are required to be members.\nAccording to Article 3 of the constitution, [Juche](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juche) is the official ideology of North Korea. The means of production are owned by the state through state-run enterprises and collectivized farms. Most services—such as healthcare, education, housing and food production—are subsidized or state-funded. From 1994 to 1998, [North Korea suffered a famine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine) that resulted in the deaths of 240,000 to 3.5 million people, and the population continues to suffer malnutrition.\nAs of 2021, in the aftermath of the global COVID-19 pandemic, as well as crop failures, [North Korea is facing a 'tense' food shortage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-57507456), and there are [fears that many people in the country may be at risk of starvation.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/03/north-korea-facing-major-food-shortage-could-lead-death-millions/)\nWill there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that before 1 January 2025, credible reports indicate that North Korea has suffered from a famine beginning no earlier than 1 January, 2020 that has likely resulted in at least 250,000 deaths. The question resolves negatively if this does not occur.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:16.029Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.\nGNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. \nThe World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.\n[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. \nThe threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). \nThe high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nThis question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:21.385Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 171,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-23T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&amp;feature=youtu.be&amp;t=1h30m02s) was that, \"Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&amp;feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.\nWe ask:\nWhat will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? \nTo calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the \"Total Size\" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .\n(*) Strictly speaking, this is \"bits-per-byte\" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:26.746Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-27T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7060/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-foods-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods totalled $7 billion in 2020 ([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#category-sales)). This is up from around $5.5 billion in 2019.\nAmong the alternative protein markets, plant-based milk continues to hold the largest share with an estimated market value of [$2.5 billion in 2020](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/). Additionally, the plant-based meat market has grown very rapidly to a sizeable $1.4 billion. Dollar sales of plant-based meat grew 45 percent in the past year and 72 percent over the past two years.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $4.9b in 2018, $5.5b in 2019, and $7bn in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:31.995Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:13:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7019/world-over-1-million-covid-daily-cases/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The daily global covid case seven day moving average is over 800,000. Will the world pass 1 million daily cases for the seven-day moving average? Predict the date that this could happen. \nResolution is via [Worldometers tracks the global daily covid cases](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/).\nWhen will the world surpass 1 million COVID cases per day for the seven day moving average\nIf it does not happen by Dec 31, 2021 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:37.937Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T18:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:48:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:43.195Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 165,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:49.020Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 180,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&amp;sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.21999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:54.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 150,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the fed funds rate be by the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7439/u-s-interest-rate-policy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The federal funds rate is the benchmark interest rate in the U. S. economy and broadly affects economic conditions e. g. inflation, growth and employment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve sets the target level and range for the federal funds rate (see [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp)).\nWhat will the fed funds rate be on December 31st, 2023?\nThe question resolves as the target level fed funds rate as set by the FOMC on December 31st, 2023. This information is taken from the latest press release on [the Federal Reserve's website](http://www.federalreserve.gov) containing such.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:10:59.997Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T20:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US Supreme Court in June [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\nIn 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n. . .\nOn March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n. . .\nIt remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\nWill women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?\nThe question resolves positively if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service prior to 2024-01-06. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from at least three credible media sources that women are required to register for the draft. To resolve positively, women must be required to register prior to 2024-01-06; the passage of a law that required women to register on or after 2024-01-06 would not count. Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6599999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:05.372Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-09-13T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-06T06:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:10.585Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on India detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by India includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Indian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by India by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:16.046Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T17:51:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:52:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:21.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 182,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7398/when-will-computers-be-competent-programmers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938),\nWhile programming is one of the most broadly applicable skills in modern society, modern machine learning models still cannot code solutions to basic problems. Despite its importance, there has been surprisingly little work on evaluating code generation, and it can be difficult to accurately assess code generation performance rigorously. To meet this challenge, we introduce APPS, a benchmark for code generation. Unlike prior work in more restricted settings, our benchmark measures the ability of models to take an arbitrary natural language specification and generate satisfactory Python code. [...] Recent models such as GPT-Neo can pass approximately 20% of the test cases of introductory problems, so we find that machine learning models are now beginning to learn how to code. As the social significance of automatic code generation increases over the coming years, our benchmark can provide an important measure for tracking advancements.\nThis question will resolve according to rather stringent conditions. It will use the strict accuracy on the competition coding problems which \"requires programs pass every test case\" (as defined in section 4.2 of the paper), and it will require that the model be given only one try per problem. For reference, the best model GPT-Neo 2.7B received a strict accuracy of 3.9% on introductory problems, 0.57% on interview problems, and 0.0% on competition problems.\nWhen will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?\nThis question resolves on the date during which a credible paper or document of any kind is published on the internet indicating that some computer program has exceeded a top-1 strict accuracy of 80.0% on competition coding problems found in the APPS benchmark introduced by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.09938). Top-1 accuracy is distinguished, as in the paper, from top-k accuracy in which k outputs from the model are generated, and the best output is selected. In the benchmark, competition coding problems are\nat the level of the most advanced high school and collegiate programming competitions, including USACO, IOI, and ACM.\nSee also these questions:\n[Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/)\n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n[When will programs write programs for us?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)\nCheating, such as a program memorizing the solutions, obviously does not count towards resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:26.668Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2031-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2081-07-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of June 2021, there have only been two recorded offensive nuclear weapon detonations. Occurring in 1945 shortly before the end of World War II, the [US dropped two atomic bombs on the cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20detonated%20two,nuclear%20weapons%20in%20armed%20conflict.). These attacks would be considered [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) because of their direct targeting of non-military and/or non-industrial targets. \nNuclear weapons have never yet been used against battlefield targets. There is controversy over how likely it is that states would ever use nuclear weapons in this way and, especially, over whether nuclear weapons could be used in this way without the conflict then escalating to nuclear strikes on non-battlefield targets.\nWhat fraction of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?\nThis question resolves as the proportion between 0 and 1 of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 (1-1-50) that are targeted on battlefield targets, rather than [countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) or [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets. This question will resolve ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear weapon detonations by 2050.\nA detonation will be considered to be against battlefield targets if the detonation occurs within 100km of a frontline of a conflict. If there are many frontlines, then any will be considered for the purpose of evaluating this question. A frontline can be on land or in the sea. \nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) nor accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will count as an \"offensive nuclear detonation\", even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by state or non-state actors can both count towards a positive resolution of this question.\nResolution criteria will come from reliable news reports or battlefield reports.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:31.903Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T22:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7378/move-index-above-70-before-november/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The MOVE Index is quite similar to the VIX Index, except that it tracks the volatility in the bond market, rather than the stock market.\nMOVE Index creator Harley Bassman [comments that](https://www.theice.com/insights/market-pulse/fixed-income-with-harley-bassman):\n\"Why the MOVE was so valuable recently is that, while the VIX and equity markets get all the headlines; the bond bucket is actually much bigger, and it tends to signal things ahead of the equity market, because the underlying plumbing of finance happens in the bond market. Although the VIX went up a lot, the MOVE went up awful a lot more - and that really told you that this was a serious problem in the market, because bonds should not move more than stocks do.\"\nIn March 2020, while the VIX Index reached a level of [53.54](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/), the MOVE Index nearly tripled that with a closing index value of [nearly 140](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MOVE:INDEXNYSEGIS?sa=X&amp;ved=2ahUKEwj_4cTzu_zwAhVS-p4KHT2wAmoQ3ecFMAB6BAgNEBo&amp;window=5Y). In the beginning of June 2021, the MOVE Index sat at just above 50. However, since the beginning of the pandemic it has only just dipped below 40 a handful of times.\nWill the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 11-01-21 the MOVE Index breaches 70. This will include inter-daily values, and the last day counted will be the closing value on 10-31-21. \nIf no closing or inter-daily value breach 70 before before 11-01-21, then this question will resolve negatively. \nResolution source will come from Google Finance or from any other reliable financial reporting platform.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:37.153Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T01:45:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-02T01:45:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)\nJapan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):\n2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th\nWill they come in the Top 4 again?\nWill Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics\nThis question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:42.682Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 266,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-07T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?\nDiscontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:\n<li> A party gaining decisive strategic advantage </li><li> A single important ‘deployment’ event </li><li> Other very sudden and surprising events \nA [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each of physics, mathematics and computer science. Using this, we can define a surprising discontinuity in AI progress as a tripling of the [odds](http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-Modules/BS/BS704_Confidence_Intervals/BS704_Confidence_Intervals10.html) (given by p/(1-p)) in both the Metaculus prediction and community prediction within a 2-month period. \nSo, Will the both the Metaculus prediction odds and the community prediction odds of a positive resolution to [our question on human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) at least triple within any two-month period before its close date? \nSome examples of a tripling of the odds are 60% becoming at least 81.8%, 70% becoming at least 87.5%, 80% becoming at least 92.3%, 90% becoming at least 96.4%, etc. See [AI Impacts'](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) fantastic overview of the issue of discontinuous progress toward AGI. \n(Edited 8/29/18 to require the change in *both* Metaculus and community prediction as the source of odds.)</li> \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:48.103Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 602,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-28T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-02-28T16:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-12-30T16:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7384/alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Defense Department started collecting UFO/UAP reports in 2007 as part of the [Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Aerospace_Threat_Identification_Program) and the later [Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unidentified_Aerial_Phenomena_Task_Force). News of these programs and associated leaked videos have brought unprecedented mainstream attention to UFOs/UAP.\nBefore 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system?\nThis question will resolve positively iff by 2030, 4 credible media sources report that non-human extra-terrestrial technology has been discovered in the solar system (within Neptune's orbit). This may pertain to current claims of UFOs/UAP, events between now and 2030, or discoveries of archaelogical evidence (defunct or non-operational technology, found on earth or in the solar system). This question resolves negatively if there are no sufficient reports.\nfor this question, credible media sources will include:\n---The Associated Press \n---The New York Times \n---The Wall Street Journal \n---The Washington Post \n---The Los Angeles Times \n---Time Magazine \n---The Economist \n---The Times of London \n---The Financial Times \n---Le Monde \n---or Die Zeit \nAdditionally, A report from a branch of the federal government that claims that aliens are the most likely explanation of a reported observation will count as a source.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:53.400Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:11:58.691Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:04.018Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2032-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7346/initial-jobless-claims-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on July 29, 2021 for the reference date July 24, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:09.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 203,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-25T23:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-29T23:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:\n1-- \nThe US government\n2-- \nSpaceX\n3-- \nAnother government\n4-- \nAnother corporation or private organization\n5-- \nOther (somehow)\nAlthough Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the \"weight\" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.\nResolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.\nCloses retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:15.020Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 276,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/date-china-gathers-1b-citizen-genomes/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).\nThe question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? \nThis question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).\nFurther details: \n--- \nThe date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count\n--- \nBy citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong\n--- \nGenomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question\nGenotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say &gt;500k). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:20.177Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-10T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In August of 2020, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals [ruled against](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) a challenge by the National Coalition for Men (NCFM), which was seeking to overturn the male-only military draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination. In [Rostker v. Goldberg (1981)](https://www.scotusblog.com/2021/01/petitions-of-the-week-the-men-only-draft-and-compelled-iphone-passcodes/), the Supreme Court had upheld the male-only draft as Constitutional on the grounds that women were barred from serving in combat roles at the time. But in 2015 combat roles [were opened](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/12/03/458319524/pentagon-will-allow-women-in-frontline-ground-combat-positions) to female soldiers.\nNCFM sued the government, arguing that the basis for the decision in Rostker v. Goldberg had been invalidated. NCFM argued the previous case should be overturned and the male-only draft ruled unconstitutional. The case reached the Fifth Circuit, [which in an opinion](https://casetext.com/case/men-v-selective-serv-sys-2) stated:\n\"Plaintiffs-Appellees point to no case in which a court of appeals has done what they ask of us, that is, to disregard a Supreme Court decision as to the constitutionality of the exact statute at issue here because some key facts implicated in the Supreme Court's decision have changed. That we will not do.\"\nNCFM filed an [appeal to the Supreme Court on January 8th, 2021](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/) requesting their case be heard.\nWill the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Military Selective Service Act as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.\nPositive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:25.783Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 162,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Previous questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) [resolved: no] \n---[When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/) [closed in 2021] \nConjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question will resolve on the date a proof that is mostly correct is published which demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the day before the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. In the event that the conjecture is proven to be [undecidable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undecidable_problem) or [independent of ZFC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%E2%80%93Fraenkel_set_theory#Independence), the question will also resolve on the date of such proof.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:31.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-07-06T12:59:13.074000Z",
"resolve_time": "2311-09-23T20:43:55.448000Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:41.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:52.486Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [war between Tigrayan and Ethiopian-Eritrean forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tigray_War) that began in November 2020 is ongoing as of July 2021. An [estimated 1.7 million people](https://news.yahoo.com/un-over-400-000-people-203825888.html) have been displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands [reportedly face starvation](https://www.voanews.com/africa/un-agencies-warn-worsening-humanitarian-catastrophe-tigray) if international aid agencies do not soon obtain access to the threatened areas. The United States is [escalating pressure on Ethiopia](https://www.devex.com/news/us-congress-to-keep-pressure-on-ethiopia-after-unilateral-cease-fire-100272) to end the fighting and enable humanitarian access to the conflict zone.\nWill there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?\nThe question resolves positively once a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Tigrayan and Ethiopian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. The question resolves negatively if no cease-fire has gone into effect by 2022, or if an announced cease-fire breaks down in 2022 before lasting 30 days. (Thus positive resolution in 2022 is possible if a cease-fire goes into effect late in 2021.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:12:57.726Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-31T00:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-31T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nWill any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?\nResolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.\nOur comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:02.998Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 196,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:08.339Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 148,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)\nThe United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.\nTensions have been high in the Senate recently. Expulsion has been mentioned by partisans on both sides.\nWill the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?\nThis question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Senate proceedings indicates that any Senator was expelled by the Senate during the 21 months ending January 3, 2023.\n\"Senator\" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:14.132Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 159,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7558/algorithm-for-factoring-in-polynomial-time/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The question of whether or not an integer can be [factored in polynomial time](http://(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integer_factorization)) (in the size of the input) is one of the most important problems in theoretical computer science. A quick algorithm for factoring could potentially [break RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_problem). [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm) is an algorithm for factoring in polynomial time using a quantum computer, but it is not a classical algorithm.\nWhen will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?\nThis question will resolve as the date of a publication in a major mathematical journal or computer science conference which proves the existence of a classical algorithm for factoring in polynomial time. It is not necessary for the algoritm itself to be known, or to be efficent or practical, it is sufficient to prove that some such algoritm exists.\nIf there is a proof published that shows that such an algorithm is impossible, this question will close retroactively 1 day before the paper is published/preprinted. The question would resolve as &gt;2121.\nThe algorithm is allowed to be randomized. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:19.430Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 10,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-26T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2121-01-21T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.41000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:24.637Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 656,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7554/6k-us-covid-daily-hospitalizations-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the [more-transmissible](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf) Delta variant becoming [predominant](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/health/delta-variant-cdc.html). The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in hospitalizations is of interest given the [higher vaccination rate of older age groups](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nThe 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations [last exceeded 6000 on 26 February 2021](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions).\nWill the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations is greater than 6000. The source will be CDC's official count of [new daily COVID-19 hospitalizations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions). Select the \"By Jurisdiction\" tab to see daily hospitalizations.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.20999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:29.905Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-03T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7121/vaccination-rate-ratios-hispanic-virginians/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia [has prioritized](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/diversity/equity-leadership-taskforce/) [health equity](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/health-equity/office-of-health-equity/covid-19-health-equity-guidebook/) in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome.\nThe Virginia Department of Health [reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/03/08/covid-19-disparities-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-virginia/) COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Hispanic group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Hispanic group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group.\nWhat will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on the July data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/) or [dashboard](https://public.tableau.com/profile/vdh.omhhe#!/vizhome/DisparityRatios/Cumulative).\nIf the rate ratio exceeds 2, this will resolve as &gt; 2.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:35.129Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 230,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&amp;view=map&amp;year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:40.332Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-01T01:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-02T02:50:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.17000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:45.558Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 212,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Wikipedia page on [Russo-Sino foreign relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Russian_relations_since_1991) notes that:\n\"The two countries share a land border which was demarcated in 1991, and they signed a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001. On the eve of a 2013 state visit to Moscow by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that the two nations were forging a special relationship. The two countries have enjoyed close relations militarily, economically, and politically, while supporting each other on various global issues.\"\nHowever, researchers for the Middle East Institute write:\n\"Although China and Russia have strengthened their relationship, there remain obstacles for close cooperation. For example, Russian commentators have increasingly raised concerns about China’s ambitions and influence in Central Asia, an area historically within the Russian sphere of influence. Russian leaders have expressed growing concerns regarding China’s investments in the energy-rich but sparsely-populated Russian Far East. The Middle East is a new theater for potential friction between the two powers.\" \nGiven these two states' large militaries and nuclear arsenals, it is important to gain a clearer sense of the probability of conflict between them.\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Russian and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\nResolution will come from reputable new sources or from direct reports from their government, or government officials.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:50.791Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:52:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:53:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7462/deployed-nuclear-weapons-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of May 2021, [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimates there are:\n\"roughly 13,100 warheads [...]. Of these, nearly 9,600 are in the military stockpiles (the rest are awaiting dismantlement), of which some 3,800 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which up to 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert, ready for use on short notice.\"\nAn increase in the number of nuclear weapons that are deployed rather than in reserve or retired would likely increase the expected number of nuclear weapons that would actually be used (and thus the expected fatalities that would occur) if a nuclear war occurs. It may also affect the likelihood of nuclear or non-nuclear conflict occurring in the first place, though it's harder to say in which direction. Finally, changes in the number of deployed weapons can be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and maneuvering and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk.\nHow many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves as the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) estimated to be deployed across all states as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23. This includes both strategic and nonstrategic weapons. This excludes weapons that are (a) in reserve/nondeployed or (b) retired but still intact.\nResolution criteria will come from [the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:13:56.187Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:22:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:22:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On August 6, 1945, the US detonated a nuclear weapon over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. Three days later, it detonated another over Nagasaki. Those first two non-test nuclear detonations are also, to date, the only such detonations. \nWill an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2024 and causes at least one fatality. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation of a state or nonstate nuclear weapon can count towards a positive resolution. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. \nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:02.112Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 81,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-01T21:38:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:38:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US-EU border reopen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:07.317Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:12.743Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 284,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.\nThe human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.\nCurrently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.\nBut by the end of the century, we could (and probably will) witness far grander cities. \nPer Canadian demographers, Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, for instance, Lagos in Nigeria may swell to 100+M by 2100 if trends continue. Face 2 Face Africa has the story:\nBy 2100 if Nigeria’s population continues to grow and people move to cities at the same rate as now, Lagos with its current 20 million people could be home to more people than the state of California.\nThe demographers' full paper is [here](http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956247816663557). \nThe International Institute for Environment and Development goes into detail about why Hoornweg and Pope are so bullish on Africa [here](https://www.iied.org/will-africa-have-worlds-largest-cities-2100).\nWhether it's Lagos that claims the crown or some other city in Africa or elsewhere, what do you think? Will some metro hit 100M people by 2100? (For the estimate we will include the general metropolitan area rather than the strict city boundaries, as done [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population#Urban_areas_(Top_100).))\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:18.061Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 291,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:23.841Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7050/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimuli for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:29.149Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:48:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:34.853Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1164,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:40.187Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 150,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:46.162Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 132,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7082/ghislaine-maxwell-a-reddit-power-user/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, people posted on 4chan, Twitter and then Reddit a theory that the Reddit account [maxwellhill](https://www.reddit.com/user/maxwellhill) belongs to Ghislaine Maxwell, who at the time of writing has been charged with enticement of minors and sex trafficking of underage girls. \nu/maxwellhill was the first account to receive 1 million \"karma\" (points) on Reddit, and at the time the conspiracy theory aired was in the top 10 accounts for karma received. The account is a moderator for a large number of subs (forums), and was for 14 years a regular poster on Reddit.\nThe conspiracy relies on circumstantial evidence: \n---Maxwell's surname appears in the Reddit username \n---maxwellhill, a prolific poster, has posting gaps at times when Maxwell is known or suspected to have been otherwise engaged \n---maxwellhill says their birthday is in December, and after the 21st of December, which matches Maxwell's 25 December birthday. \n---Most significantly, maxwellhill has not posted publicly since 1 July 2020. Maxwell was arrested on 2 July 2020. \nHowever, media sources have been critical of the theory and another Reddit moderator has reportedly received private messages from maxwellhill [after Maxwell's arrest](https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3zbaj/incoherent-conspiracy-suggests-ghislaine-maxwell-is-a-powerful-redditor).\nWill Reddit power user \"maxwellhill\" be confirmed to be Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025 or earlier?\nThis theory will be considered confirmed if it is stated by Ghislaine Maxwell or her representatives, or reported by police, prosecutors or reliable witnesses that Maxwell either is maxwellhill specifically or that she was an active and influential Reddit user (or words to that effect). \nThere could also be an accumulation of evidence over time. If respectable news organisations like the New York Times, Washington Post, Guardian or Sydney Morning Herald report that Maxwell is or is likely to be maxwellhill, that will also suffice.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:51.396Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 56,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\n---Implication: The deadliest war between Israel and Palestine since at least 2008 \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n===============================================\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\nThis question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 2,500 Palestinian deaths in 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:14:56.785Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.\nFranchises that already are at the number 2: \"Half Life 2\", \"Portal 2\", \"Left 4 Dead 2\", \"Team Fortress 2\" and \"Dota 2\".\nThis question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has \"3\" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:07.861Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 148,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T09:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7375/vix-index-post-julys-non-farm-payroll/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"\"fear gauge\"\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&amp;P 500 stock index option prices.\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next month. \nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a peak of 82.69. \nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index.\nWhat will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing?\nThis question resolves as the level of the US VIX Index at closing on the release date of July's Non-Farm Payroll numbers. \nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:13.071Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-02T01:38:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-12T01:38:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. \nOne of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.\nWill ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?\nWhether an event is a \"scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances\" will be resolved per the [\"I know it when I see it\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.\nEdit 2020-01-03: Replaced \"In the case of disagreement among Metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution\" with \"In case of disagreement among Metaculus users, Metaculus Admins will decide resolution\". \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:18.255Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7120/vaccination-rate-ratios-black-virginians/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia [has prioritized](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/diversity/equity-leadership-taskforce/) [health equity](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/health-equity/office-of-health-equity/covid-19-health-equity-guidebook/) in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome.\nThe Virginia Department of Health [reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/03/08/covid-19-disparities-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-virginia/) COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Black group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Black group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group.\nWhat will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on the July data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/) or [dashboard](https://public.tableau.com/profile/vdh.omhhe#!/vizhome/DisparityRatios/Cumulative).\nIf the rate ratio exceeds 2, this will resolve as &gt; 2.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:23.571Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 187,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit project created by The Boring Company using Tesla vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers, with testing using automated systems planned later on in 2021.\nThis project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment.\nWill the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2023, regular operation of the LVCC loop includes at least 1 full month in which at least 90% of vehicles in the system have no human drivers according to press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal or Washington Post posted to the discussion section below. There should also be no fines paid by The Boring Company in that month due to [failure to transport users](https://www.theverge.com/2020/10/16/21519692/elon-musk-boring-company-vegas-loop-less-impressive-promised) (fines paid for reasons other than lack of ability to transport passengers do not count towards judgement of this question). \nFrom the article above: \"There are financial consequences if The Boring Company can’t actually shuttle as many people as promised with the Convention Center Loop. It may miss out on more than $13 million of its construction budget. It will also be penalized $300,000 for every trade show that it doesn’t move an average of 3,960 passengers per hour for 13 hours, to a maximum of $4.5 million in fines, according to TechCrunch.\"\nThis implies the system must carry 52K passengers/day during peak trade show hours to avoid fines.\nIf fines are waived because there are regulatory limitations on how many passengers are allowed in the system, TBC must operate up to those regulatory limits.\nFor this question to be resolve yes, TBC must operate within the terms of its original contract or any additional regulatory limits imposed upon it.\nEither way, 90% of the vehicles in the system should be operating without driver for this question to judged yes.\nDetermination of those criteria will be made according to articles posted to the comment section of this question. \nIf no such articles are posted that document autonomous operation at the capacity promised or within regulatory limits, this question resolves as no.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:29.777Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-15T22:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-03-15T22:52:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into cultivated meat companies developing clean meat products in the US was [$77.1 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), with total investment between 2016 and 2019 standing at $166 million dollars. There are currently 125 independent investors in the industry, with 79% growth in the number of investors between 2018 and 2019. \nClosing [21 rounds in 2019](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-CM-SOTIR-2020-0512.pdf), the largest round to date was Blue Nalu at $20 million dollars. With 58 completed rounds in total, this shows a large amount of growth and future opportunity for investment. With movements across the globe spurring the legalization of cultivated meat products in commercial settings, like [Eat Just's chicken nuggets in Singapore](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html), this industry could see rapid developments in product and profitability in the coming years.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling cultivated meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, cultivated meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, that is, in 2022 USD.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:35.190Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:43:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:43:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7383/peru-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Republic of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peru) is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south and west by the Pacific Ocean. Peru is a megadiverse country with habitats ranging from the arid plains of the Pacific coastal region in the west to the peaks of the Andes mountains extending from the north to the southeast of the country to the tropical Amazon Basin rainforest in the east with the Amazon river. At 1.28 million square kilometres, Peru is the 19th-largest country in the world, and the third-largest in South America. Peru has a [population of approximately 33 million](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/peru-population/) as of 2021.\n[The economy of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Peru) is the 47th-largest in the world (ranked by Purchasing Power Parity), and the income level is classified as upper middle by the World Bank.\nIn June 2021, Peru [narrowly elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-socialists-cheer-election-win-conservatives-pledge-fight-2021-06-13/?taid=60c66d2935ede90001f5fc12&amp;utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&amp;utm_medium=trueAnthem&amp;utm_source=twitter) [Pedro Castillo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Castillo) as President. Castillo is associated with the left-wing [Free Peru National Political Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Peru). The party describes itself as being \"a left-wing socialist organization\" that embraces Marxism–Leninism and Mariáteguism. It values democracy, decentralization, internationalism, sovereignty, humanism and anti-imperialism. Following his success in the first round of presidential elections in 2021, Pedro Castillo has said that he opposes communism, and has distanced himself from far-leftists in the party. Castillo has also [said that he will not seek to nationalize companies and will honour the rule of law, and will reject the policies of Chavismo.](https://www.reuters.com/world/no-chavismo-here-peru-socialist-candidate-castillo-seeks-calm-jittery-markets-2021-04-22/)\nPeru's [GDP per capita (PPP) in current international dollars](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=PE) for the year 2019 was estimated as $13,416 by the World Bank.\nWhat will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030?\nThis question resolves as [Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) in current international dollars](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=PE) as reported by the World Bank for the year 2030. If World Bank figures are unavailable, figures from the United Nations or International Monetary Fund are also acceptable. If none of these organizations produce an estimate of Peru's PPP GDP per capita for 2030, administrators shall select a credible estimate. If no credible estimates are available, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:40.368Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 45,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7135/7-day-avg-of-1-august-covid-tests-in-va/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this summer — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases.\nOn 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 August 2021 on the VDH [SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-testing/).\nIf the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as &gt;40k\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:45.586Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 160,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),\nSolar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]\nSolar radiation management has certain advantages relative to emissions cuts, adaptation, and carbon dioxide removal. Its effect of counteracting climate change would be experienced very rapidly, on the order of months after implementation, whereas the effects of emissions cuts and carbon dioxide removal are delayed because the climate change that they prevent is itself delayed. Some proposed solar radiation management techniques are expected to have very low direct financial costs of implementation, relative to the expected costs of both unabated climate change and aggressive mitigation.\nThere remain risks, however. The most commonly cited risk is that people may be less likely support reducing carbon emissions if they knew temperatures were being adequately managed via other means. Since carbon emissions still cause [ocean acidification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification), among other effects, we may prefer to reduce emissions instead. Another commonly cited reason for not using solar radiation management is that the effects are difficult to predict, though this claim is disputed. There is also a risk of a \"termination shock\" whereupon the discontinuation of solar radiation management, the Earth rapidly resumes its previous climate path, which could be hazardous. \nThere are many proposed types of solar radiation management: [statospheric aerosol injection](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection), [marine cloud brightening](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening), [ocean sulfur cycle enhancement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_fertilization), [literally painting surfaces with white colors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflective_surfaces_(climate_engineering)) and [developing space mirrors to deflect solar radiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_mirror_(climate_engineering)). \nWill large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate chage in the 21st century?\nGiven the multitude of approaches, an exact operationalization for large scale solar radiation management is difficult. While I could simply write a long disjunction of the above approaches, I have instead opted for this definition:\nLarge scale solar radiation management is said to be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century if yearly average atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are above 600 parts per million at the start of 2101, and yet the Earth's mean surface temperatures are less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (as defined and reported by a reliable institution). This question resolves ambiguously in case there is some significant natural event that reduced mean surface temperatures, such as an unexpected reduction in solar radiation. Metaculus moderates use their discretion when resolving ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:51.072Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:15:57.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 174,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7365/us-building-permits/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/5bbf4174-08fe-4294-a2bf-2226b4b9b802?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MarketsInsider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021?\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of August. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:02.776Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-07T01:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-21T01:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7506/return-for-vgt-if-agi-arrives-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of question writing, the Metaculus community currently assigns [48% probability to the proposition that human-level AI will arrive by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), and [34% to a stronger operationalization of that same question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/). This question will use the weaker operationalization of AGI for resolution.\nSome observers have speculated that if AGI is created relatively soon (within a few decades) then technology stocks will rise dramatically. This thesis is generally supported by (1) the theory that [stock prices represent discounted expected future returns](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dcf.asp), and (2) the hypothesis that investors will expect AGI services to be extremely profitable, as AGI can substitute for human labor, and therefore [greatly raise economic productivity](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/could-advanced-ai-drive-explosive-economic-growth).\nThe [Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VGT) \"seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of stocks in the information technology sector.\"\nWhat inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?\nThis question resolves only in the event that [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves before January 1st 2040. Assume that AGI is developed and demonstrated before 2040. Then this question resolves according to the hypothetical inflation-adjusted return an investor would yield by if they had bought a single share of VGT on July 2nd 2021, and sold it as soon as possible in January 2040. The return is measured in percentage points. Inflation is determined by the consumer price index, or another similar inflation measure if the consumer price index is discontinued.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:07.991Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2034-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer who on April 20 2021 was convicted on two counts of murder and one count of manslaughter in connection with the death of [George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd). As of May 2021, he is awaiting sentencing.\nOn May 4 2021, Chauvin's attorney Eric Nelson filed a post-verdict motion requesting a court order granting a new trial, pursuant to Minn. R. 26.04, subd. 1, on the following grounds: the interests of justice; abuse of discretion that deprived the Defendant of a fair trial; prosecutorial and jury misconduct; errors of law at trial; and a verdict that is contrary to law. \nFurther, Chauvin's attorney filed a motion requesting the court to order a hearing to impeach the verdict, pursuant to Minn. R. Crim. P. 26.03, subd. 20(6) and Schwartz v. Minneapolis Suburban Bus Co., 104 N.W.2d 301 (Minn. 1960), on the grounds that the jury committed misconduct, felt threatened or intimidated, felt race-based pressure during the proceedings, and/or failed to adhere to instructions during deliberations, in violation of Mr. Chauvin’s constitutional rights to due process and a fair trial. \n[The motions can be read here.](https://www.mncourts.gov/mncourtsgov/media/High-Profile-Cases/27-CR-20-12646/Notice-of-Motion-and-Motion.pdf) (PDF)\nWill a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if on or before 20 April 2022, a new trial is ordered for Derek Chauvin on homicide charges connected to the death of George Floyd. The trial need not start on or before this date; but an order granting it must have been given on or before 20 April 2022 for a positive resolution. If this does not happen, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:13.497Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 72,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-04-19T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)\nWill this goal be realized? \nThe WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:18.867Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 359,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7360/cpi-u-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:24.057Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-07T01:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-22T01:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $67 million to the focus area \"Scientific Research\" in 2020 and $54 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Scientific Research\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Scientific Research, excluding research into Artificial Intelligence Risks, should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:29.285Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. \nWith the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.\nHow much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:34.528Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T22:47:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T23:47:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:39.734Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 141,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-20T22:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2048-01-19T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the \"natural\" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?\nA [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. \nWho will win? \nResolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:44.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 983,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-18T15:13:45Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-10-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:51.210Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 386,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-30T21:37:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:16:56.490Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nAirborne Wind Energy (AWE) systems, essentially wind turbines in the sky (e.g. on kites or planes), have been promised for many years. There are several companies, many in Europe, that are working on AWE systems, including (but not limited to):\n---[KITE KRAFT](http://www.kitekraft.de/English.html) \n---[Kitepower](https://kitepower.nl/) \n---[SkySails Group](https://skysails-group.com/) \n---[Ampyx Power](https://www.ampyxpower.com/) \n---[SkyPull](https://www.skypull.technology/) \nThe basic advantages of AWE's are that one does not need a tower and therefore can use much less construction material to achieve the same amount of power, resulting in significant cost efficiencies. Furthermore, winds at high altitudes tend to be stronger and more stable than on the ground. AWE's also tend to be mobile, and controlled by software.\nSome AWE ventures are targeting containerized systems with a nominal power of 100kW. One, Kitepower, is [duration testing a 100kW system](https://kitepower.nl/tech/).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:03.380Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-01T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [an effective altruist forum post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Jsd5EGKCRnSspxEB8/a-proposal-for-a-small-inducement-prize-platform), I (Matthew Barnett) proposed a design for facilitating small inducement prizes. [Inducement prizes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inducement_prize_contest) are prizes awarded to individuals or teams for accomplishing some feat, specified ahead of time.\nDespite their long history, inducement prizes are currently much less popular than grants as a method for funding basic science. Yet, some economists have argued that they provide advantages over these traditional funding sources, as they can more efficiently solve the [principal agent problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principal%E2%80%93agent_problem) for research.\nIf a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?\nFor the purpose of this question, assume that a public platform with the following characteristics is created at some point, and is announced on the Effective Altruist Forum. In order to count, the platform must,\n--- \nAllow users to pose an open research problem and provide a prize for anyone who can provide at least a partial solution to the problem.\n--- \nProvide a system of escrow and arbitration, mirroring the suggestion given in Matthew Barnett's EA Forum post. More specifically, the platform must offer (1) a means of holding inducement prize money in reserve, and disbursing the money to participants who satisfied the conditions specified in the inducement prize contest (2) a means of appointing a trusted arbitrator with the power to resolve disputes arising in regards to who is disbursed money and in what amounts.\nAssume that approximately one year after the launch of this platform is announced on the Effective Altruism Forum, the administrators of the platform reveal the total amount of prize money disbursed on the platform since the announcement. This question will then resolve as the number of US dollars disbursed as prizes, before fees and taxes, since the announcement of the platform on the Effective Altruist Forum.\nIn case some precursor to the platform is launched or announced, but does not include at least one of the necessary conditions outlined above, the platform is not said to have been launched yet. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:08.657Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-10T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:14.069Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 92,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. On April 14, 2021, Coinbase went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &amp;c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:19.399Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:24.816Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 331,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:30.091Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 345,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-25T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7563/us-cases-for-2021-08-08-through-2021-08-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States is currently experiencing an uptick in new coronavirus infections, associated with the ascendancy of the Delta variant and the continued relaxation of controls. It is unclear whether or how quickly this uptick will develop into a significant wave of infections. The main COVID-19 forecasting consulted by the United States CDC [have diverged notably](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasts-cases.html) in their 4-week case forecasts. [According to](https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1418313246847631360) former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, \"The wide divergence between these models suggests difficulty modeling this epidemic wave of delta, likely reflecting in part poor ascertainment of current cases, as well as diverging views on the durability of immunity, velocity and circumstances of spread, and contagiousness.\"\nHow many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?\nResolves as the sum of confirmed COVID-19 cases for the United States from 2021-08-08 through 2021-08-14 inclusive, according to the CDC. The resolution date is 10 days after August 14th to allow time for delayed reporting. If there is a significantly superior data source, Metaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use that source for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:35.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-24T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-08T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-24T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:41.029Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7355/us-building-permits-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/5bbf4174-08fe-4294-a2bf-2226b4b9b802?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MarketsInsider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021?\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of July. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:46.442Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-10T00:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-24T00:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\nRelated questions:\n--- \n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \nGWP in 2100, in trillions of US$ - (this question)\n--- \n[GWP in 2200, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:51.884Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-21T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-20T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [S&amp;P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))), the S&amp;P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet to be surpassed. Generally, when the stock market makes a sudden move, it indicates that there has been some economic shock, such as when the S&amp;P 500 [fell 11.98%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash) during the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.\nWill the S&amp;P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1st 2030 and after January 1st 2020, the S&amp;P 500 moves by more than 15.0% from opening to closing price, in a single day.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:17:57.404Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 72,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-28T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-07-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Guardian, 2021-07-04: Whole genome sequencing of all UK newborns ‘would have public support’](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/04/whole-genome-sequencing-of-all-uk-newborns-would-have-public-support)\nPlans to sequence the whole genome of every newborn in the UK in order to spot those at heightened risk of certain health conditions have been given a boost, with consultations suggesting the approach could have public support.\nThe potential for genomics to improve health was at the heart of the chief medical officer annual report of 2016, with a group of experts convened by Genomics England – a government-owned genetics service – subsequently recommending a research programme to sequence the whole genome of all newborns.\nThe United Kingdom (UK) already has a very large biobank of genetic data, called [the UK Biobank (UKBB)](https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/). It has data for about 500k people. However, it is based on microarray data, not sequencing.\nWhen will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank?\n---There are credible reports (e.g., an academic paper or press release by a UK university) saying that 10 million genomes have been sequenced in biobanks. These biobanks need not be publicly owned or accessible, but their purpose must be research. 23andme-like consumer genomics companies do not count. \n---The data may not need to be in a single biobank. The numbers add up assuming the persons are non-overlapping. Positive resolution may thus come from one biobank with 1M and another with 9M. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:02.918Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6801/dukedom-of-sussex-divorce-by-march-8-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Prince Henry of Wales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Harry,_Duke_of_Sussex) and [Rachel Meghan Markle](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghan,_Duchess_of_Sussex) are members of the [British royal family](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_royal_family) and the current [Duke and Duchess of Sussex](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_of_Sussex). They were married in 2018.\nWill the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?\nThis question resolves according to confirmed news that either of the partners have filed for divorce.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:08.337Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7492/sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven resigned on June 28th, after losing a vote of confidence in the parliament. Now there will be discussions between the speaker of the parliament and all party leaders in the search for a majority coalition. The two major blocks are very tightly matched at this point at 175-174. After the election in 2018 it took 134 days to form an agreement between the parties that have been in majority since then.\nThe speaker will make a suggestion to the parliament when he feels he has found a candidate for prime minister that the majority will accept. There is no formal time limit for this process. If at least 175 out of the 349 members of parliament vote against the candidate, the speaker has to come up with a new suggestion. After four votes where each candidate loses, an extra election must be announced, and the election will need to take place within 3 months.\nSources: [https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prim…](https://www.thelocal.se/20210628/swedish-prime-minister-stefan-lofven-resigns/)\n[https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefa…](https://www.thelocal.se/20210621/sweden-stefan-lofven-loses-no-confidence-motion/) (before the resignation)\nWill Sweden have an extra election before the end of December 2021?\nThe question resolves positively if there is a general election for parliament in Sweden on or before December 31 2021. The final results need not be ready before this date.\nIn all other cases this question resolves negatively (e.g. there is no election because a new PM is elected by parliament, or there is an election on or after January 1 2022).\nPre-votes (mail votes) may be sent beforehand, but for positive resolution there needs to be an actual \"voting day\" where physical voting locations are open to the public, before December 31. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:13.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $10 million to the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\" in 2020 and $56 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Criminal Justice Reform should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:19.256Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:30.085Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 168,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Taylor Swift](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift) released two surprise albums - Folklore and Evermore - in 2020.\nThe timeline of previous albums:\nLover (2019)\nReputation (2017)\n1989 (2014)\nRed (2012)\nSpeak Now (2010)\nFearless (2008)\nTaylor Swift (2006)\nWill Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?\nAn [EP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_play) doesn't count, it has to be album - this will be decided according to how the publisher self-describes the record.\nIf Swift releases re-recordings of her back catalog, they too would not count, at least 7 new songs must be on the album.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:35.999Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 135,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_%26_Melinda_Gates_Foundation) is an American private foundation founded by Bill and Melinda Gates. It is reported as of 2020 to be the second largest charitable foundation in the world, holding $49.8 billion in assets. Bill and Melinda were [reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56975466) in May 2021 to be in the process of divorcing.\nTheir statement said \"Over the last 27 years, we have raised three incredible children and built a foundation that works all over the world to enable all people to lead healthy, productive lives, We continue to share a belief in that mission and will continue our work together at the foundation, but we no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in the next phase of our lives. \"\nThis question asks if one of Bill or Melinda devotes significant amounts of their philanthropic efforts outside the existing Gates Foundation, such that the resources available to the foundation are meaningfully reduced.\nWill Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media sources indicate that either Bill or Melinda Gates have created a separate charitable entity with at least $10bn in assets or total grants, distinct from the existing foundation by December 2030. Exactly one of Bill or Melinda must be actively involved in this new organisation for this to count. Legal restructuring of the existing Gates foundation do not count, if it is still centrally managed by a board containing both Bill and Melinda or uses the name \"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation\" or similar.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.41000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:41.294Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:46.597Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 222,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7180/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-june-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nPrevious Questions:\n[Change in US Durable Goods Orders May 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6880/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-may-2021/)\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for June 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:51.903Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-25T00:06:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T00:06:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\".\nWill the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if on any single day between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 there are more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This question resolves negatively if there is no single day the United States records more than 100,000 daily COVID-19 cases according to the [CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:18:57.164Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 146,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-15T15:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T15:18:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:02.400Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.\nIn March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).\nWhat will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:07.604Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 181,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7351/crude-oil-stock-change-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\nCrude oil, gas, and petroleum remain [linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do [impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nWhat will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of June in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/eia-crude-oil-stocks-change). This will include the reporting dates for 7-July, 14-July, 21-July, 28-July.\nFor reference, a [previous report](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf) released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:12.796Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 196,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-22T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-29T00:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. This question asks if, in 2026, there will be another such foundation or individual donor in the effective altruism space.\nWill there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if, in 2026, an individual donor or foundation sourcing its wealth from a single individual or family donates over $250 million dollars (adjusted for inflation), using an Effective Altruist framework to guide their donations (see fine print for details).\nGrants should only count if they are publicly disclosed, as is currently done by Good Ventures or [Survival and Flourishing](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/), for example. \nA donor will be considered to have donated the money if the money has been regranted to organisations outside their foundation to explicitly pursue direct work on improving the world (so, for example, donating to a Donor Advised Fund with the intention of investing the money for future charitable use would not count, but donating to an organisation doing cause prioritisation research would count). \nAn organisation should be considered EA aligned if out of 3 Metaculus moderators, 3/3 would consider the donor or the majority of the leadership of the organisation to be members of the EA community, or that the donations were motivated by Effective Altruist considerations. If moderators are divided or individually uncertain, I will make a best-effort attempt to poll 5 well-known members of the EA community who can credibly attest to being part of EA as of June 4 2021.\nBy way of a guide, this is intended to exclude, for example, the [Gates Foundation](https://www.gatesfoundation.org/), but include [Open Philanthropy](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/), [Longview Philanthropy](https://www.longview.org/) and [The Life You Can Save](https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/) as of 2021. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:18.047Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.41000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:23.576Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 231,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:29.023Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 757,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people will take the EA survey in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8FzcfA8wckTJi/ea-survey-2020-demographics) survey collected 2,166 valid responses from EAs.\nThis question asks about the number of valid responses the 2030 edition of the survey will receive.\nHow many people will take the EA survey in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the number of valid responses claimed by the publishers of the EA survey in 2030. If the survey does not take place, the question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/) for a similar question about the 2025 EA Survey.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:34.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-04-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States [currently spends](health spending) about 17% of its GDP on health spending, which is up from about 6% in 1970. This growth is substantially faster than similar industrialized nations. Economists have pointed the blame at [various sources](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/080615/6-reasons-healthcare-so-expensive-us.asp), mostly pointing to rising prescription drug, device and test costs, rising compensation for doctors and nurses, and administrative waste.\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the percent value that the United States spends on healthcare, given as a fraction of GDP for the year 2035. Reliable sources used for resolution will be, in order of priority,\n---Some official cost estimate given by the US federal government \n---Some official cost estimate given by the OECD \n---A highly reputable study that estimates healthcare spending costs \nFor the purpose of this question, healthcare consists of those activities conducted by paid professionals in the treatment, prevention and cure of diseases, excluding personal trainers and those in unlicensed or pseudo-scientific professions. In case this definition is not specific enough, or indeed accurate according to general wisdom, admins should use their discretion in determining which cost estimate is best.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:39.409Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-03-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimulus for future investment.\nThe Good Food Institute [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf):\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2026. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation (see fine-print).\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\nPrices are to be given in 2022 USD, to be consistent with other questions. To adjust for inflation, we will be using [FRED data](/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:44.642Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-21T21:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-06-30T21:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7464/black-carbon-in-troposphere-after-nuclear-war/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Nuclear war has the potential to kill far more people via its climate effects than it does directly, and those climate effects are also typically seen as the most likely path by which nuclear war could cause an existential catastrophe. The size of these climate effects depends greatly on the amount of black carbon injected into the upper troposphere by the fires caused by nuclear strikes. This black carbon might ([or might not](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_debate)) then persist in the atmosphere and cause major cooling, agricultural shortfalls, and famine.\nThe amount of black carbon that would reach the upper troposphere depends on factors such as the number and yield of nuclear weapons used, the fuel densities of their targets, and whether firestorms would occur. These factor have been debated by various researchers, such as [Toon et al. (2007)](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/7/1973/2007/), [Reisner et al. (2018)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD027331), [Robock et al. (2019)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JD030777), [Rodriguez (2019)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear), and [Coupe et al. (2019)](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Nuclear-Winter-Responses-to-Nuclear-War-Between-the-Coupe-Bardeen/560033106c2d599bcace3ce4cb6c67d5b713ec50).\nHow many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?\nThis question resolves as the number of teragrams of black carbon injected into the upper troposphere as the result of the next nuclear conflict. The number of teragrams will be measured as the median of estimates from studies that (a) cover the climatic effects from the next nuclear conflict, (b) are from peer-reviewed, reputable journals, and (c) are cited by relevant Wikipedia pages.\n[The troposphere](https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/atmosphere/troposphere) is here defined as: \"The bottom of the troposphere is at Earth's surface. The troposphere extends upward to about 10 km (6.2 miles or about 33,000 feet) above sea level. The height of the top of the troposphere varies with latitude (it is lowest over the poles and highest at the equator) and by season (it is lower in winter and higher in summer). It can be as high as 20 km (12 miles or 65,000 feet) near the equator, and as low as 7 km (4 miles or 23,000 feet) over the poles in winter.\"\n[The upper troposphere](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011RG000355) is a coupling layer in the atmosphere. It can be broadly defined as the region ±5 km around the tropopause, the traditional boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if, by 2050, no nuclear war has occurred or there are no studies done that estimate the amount of black carbon injected into the troposphere after nuclear conflict. If studies are performed but their results do not lead to clear resolution, a resolution council or Metaculus admins will be consulted to determine proper resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:49.837Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:28:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nIn the United States, cultivated meat is currently co-regulated by the Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The [regulatory framework](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian), established in 2019, provides a path to market for cultivated meat products. However, so far, no cultivated meat products have been approved under this framework.\nWill at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if any cultivated meat product is first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States by 2023-01-01. Positive resolution is consistent with there being labelling and other restrictions on its sale. However, the product must be available for sale to the general public. This question resolves on the basis of credible media reports.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:19:55.128Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:26:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:26:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:00.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): \"global humanitarianism\", \"risk tolerance and patience\", and \"action in the face of humanity\".\nMore broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under \"effective altruist principles\" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.\nIn the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?\nThe question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/center-for-population-level-bioethics-general-support), which generally refer to cause reports ([example](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/biosecurity)), and the cause reports provide justification for why the cause is a high priority under effective altruist principles. If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three admins will vote on how it should resolve, possibly with input from the question author.\nJudging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.\nIf Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:05.636Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7421/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $67 million to the focus area \"Scientific Research\" in 2020 and $54 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Scientific Research\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Scientific Research, excluding research into Artificial Intelligence Risks, should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:10.866Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As discussed in [a previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4683/will-the-border-conflict-between-india-and-china-escalate-to-a-deadly-clash-involving-gunfire-or-explosives-before-2021/):\n\"The border between India and China has been disputed since at least the 1962 Sino-Indian war. Despite the ceasefire declared by China ending the war the same year and diplomatic efforts to define a border, it seems that the issue is still not settled to both sides’ satisfaction. Over the years, tensions have continued to persist resulting in incidents such as clashes in 1967 and a military standoff in 2017.\n[In 2020], tensions have once again flared. Beginning in early May, clashes along the border between Chinese and Indian military forces resulted in some injuries, but no deaths. This changed on the night of June 15th when a deadly brawl broke out in the Galwan Valley near China’s eastern border with India. Each side disagrees about what exactly transpired, but Indian officials report that 20 of their soldiers died, some during the clash and some later after succumbing to their injuries. China has not reported how many of their soldiers died.\nOne unusual aspect of these clashes is that, so far, no shots have been fired and all deaths and injuries have been the result of fisticuffs, clubs (sometimes embellished with nails and barbed wire), stone-pelting, and falls from cliffs. While India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has confirmed that all border troops carry arms, a 1996 agreement between India and China states that: \"With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas… Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres from the line of actual control.\"\nThis question adapts that previous question to consider what might happen by 2024 and in any location (not necessarily just near the China-India border).\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable Chinese and Indian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:16.239Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:55:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Several proposals for bitcoin ETFs have been submitted to the SEC over the last 5 years, but the SEC has not approved any of them yet.\nClosed-end funds like GBTC already exist, their price does not accurately track bitcoin due to the lack of any share creation/redemption mechanism for market makers to arbitrage the difference in price between the fund and the underlying commodity.\nSince retail investors can already buy GBTC, which approximately tracks bitcoin but with additional random fluctuations superimposed, I can't think of any plausible consumer-protection argument for the SEC to deny the right to convert it to an ETF, which wouldn't also be a fully generic argument against all ETFs (e.g., assuming that the market makers' profits come at the expense of the users)\nWill the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?\nAn ETF of equities of companies that own bitcoin, like Microstrategy, Square, and Coinbase, would not be sufficient for a yes resolution. Only an ETF that puts &gt;95% of its NAV into bitcoin would count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:21.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-20T08:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-21T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:27.210Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 143,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates.\nWill Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nIn the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:32.573Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 307,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-11-15T13:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-11-16T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:37.885Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 170,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7336/good-ventures-donations-5-of-assets/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/) is a philanthropic foundation managing the giving of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna which is a major donor to effective altruist aligned causes. They donated $219 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.goodventures.org/our-portfolio/grants-database) and $274 million in 2019, for an average of $246 million per year in these two years. Dustin Moskovitz has a net worth of $19.5 billion in June 2021, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/dustin-a-moskovitz/). According to Open Philanthropy, they intended on founding Good Ventures to give away most of their wealth [during their lifetime](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/who-we-are). This question asks when they will first succeed in granting 5% of their wealth in a 12 month period.\nWhen will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year?\nThis questions resolves to the date when the trailing 12 month total of donations made by Good Ventures according to their Grants Database exceeds 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth on that date according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\nIf this question does not resolve positively by 01/01/2040, it resolves as \"&gt;01/01/2040\".\nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires index is no longer publishing, an alternative source such as Forbes may be used. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:43.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.41000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:48.542Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 243,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:53.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an inadvertent detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:20:59.375Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:05:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In February, 2013, a meteor [scorched](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggLTPyRXUKc) the Russian skies. EarthSky gives the [key details](http://earthsky.org/space/meteor-asteroid-chelyabinsk-russia-feb-15-2013): \nA small asteroid with an estimated size of 65 feet... was moving at 12 miles per second (~19 km/sec) when it struck the protective blanket of air around our planet, which did its job and caused the asteroid to explode. The bright, hot explosion took place only about 20 miles (30 km) above the city of Chelyabinsk in Russia and carried 20 to 30 times the energy of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Its shock wave broke windows and knocked down parts of buildings in six Russian cities and caused some 1,500 people to seek medical attention for injuries, mostly from flying glass.\nIt's only a matter of time before more space rocks as big as (or bigger than) the one that caused the Chelyabinsk Event find their way to Earth.\nBefore 2051-01-01, will an event cause more injuries than the Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured 1491 people ([russian source](https://web.archive.org/web/20130502144652/http://top.rbc.ru/incidents/18/02/2013/845595.shtml), [wp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor))? More specifically, will a meteor next injure at least 1492 people? This resolves according to credible media reports, or their median estimate if several are found.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:04.563Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-10-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7363/us-durable-goods-orders-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for August 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:15.266Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-19T01:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-01T01:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:21.094Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 251,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If the EU bans all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7496/when-will-the-eu-phase-out-cages/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nThis is in addition to the [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/) of whether, by 2024, the European Commission will make a proposal to phase out cages.\nOn June 30th 2021, the Commission responded to the [End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/) [European Citizen's Initiative](https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/12842-Animal-welfare-%E2%80%98End-the-Cage-Age%E2%80%99-European-citizens%E2%80%99-initiative_en), which called for a ban on cages for farmed animals, by [writing](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/sites/default/files/2021-06/1_EN_ACT_part1_v7.pdf):\n\" . . the Commission intends to put forward a legislative proposal by the end of 2023 to phase out and finally prohibit the use of cages for all the animal species and categories referred to in the initiative (laying hens, sows, calves, rabbits, pullets, broiler breeders, layer breeders, quail, ducks and geese) as part of the planned revision of EU animal welfare legislation, under conditions (including the length of the transition period) to be determined based on EFSA opinions, the results of an impact assessment and a public consultation. . . . The date of entry into force of the prohibition, and thus the length of the phasing out period, will be considered in the context of the impact assessment for the legislative proposal. In particular, this will assess the feasibility of working towards the proposed legislation entering into force from 2027 taking into account the need to support farmers in this transition – financially and otherwise. . . . the Commission will consider the available science, an assessment of social, economic and environmental impacts, evolving needs and consumer demand. These elements will be taken into account when it comes to determining the length of a reasonable transition period and the accompanying and supporting measures to facilitate the transition. The Commission in particular will assess the feasibility of working towards the proposed legislation entering into force from 2027.\"\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that as of 2020 [52%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nSome EU countries already have plans to phase out cages or have already done so.\n--- \nGermany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship.\n--- \nIn Austria, a [ban](https://www.ris.bka.gv.at/Dokument.wxe?Abfrage=Erv&amp;Dokumentnummer=ERV_2004_1_118) on enriched cages came into force in 2020.\n---In Luxembourg, a [ban](http://legilux.public.lu/eli/etat/leg/rgd/2002/01/28/n1/jo) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---Czechia [agreed](https://pozitivni-zpravy.cz/cesi-vybojovali-svobodu-pro-slepice-zakaz-klecovych-chodu-podepsal-prezident/) to phase out cages by 2027. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030 as part of a memorandum signed with the chicken industry. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.gaia.be/en/news/wallonia-adopts-ambitious-animal-welfare-code), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. \n---France was to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients) though it doesn't seem to have been legislated, and the European Commission [claimed](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/sites/default/files/2021-06/1_EN_ACT_part1_v7.pdf) enriched cages are \"banned in France for new or refurbished farms\". \n---The Netherlands [planned](https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/stb-2010-284.html) to ban enriched cages from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used- though it seems to have been [postponed](https://www.animalrights.nl/de-%E2%80%98verrijkte-kooi%E2%80%99-voor-legkippen-verboden#fn:2). \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting.\nIf the EU bans caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Union is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have adopted into law a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union by a certain date. Note the regulation may include a date after which no new cages are to be installed in addition to a date after which all existing cages can no longer be stocked and used. In this question we are concerned with the second of these two dates. \nThis question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the announcement. If there is no phase-out date included in the law, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will resolve ambiguous if it doesn't resolve by 2060 or if the date in question is after 2060.\nEnriched, furnished, or colony cages will be considered caged-housing. Semi- or limited-access barns will not be consider caged-housing. The law may not contain the exact language \"ban cages\" but rather require some minimum space requirements, outdoor access, and enrichment materials that de fact mean extreme confinement in a cage or crate is impossible. The opinion of credible animal rights/welfare organisations like Compassion in World Farming or Eurogroup for Animals can be referred to in case of ambiguity. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:26.988Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:32.189Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-11-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.\nThis question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.\nSuccessful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:37.388Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "AGI is often defined as the ability of an intelligent agent to understand or learn intellectual tasks at a human level. A more concrete way to classify AI systems is in terms of their potential impact on the world economy.\nFollowing is a definition of Transformative AI by Ajeya Cotra in her [Draft report on AI Timelines](https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP):\n“Transformative artificial intelligence” (Transformative AI or TAI) is defined as “software” (i.e. a computer program or collection of computer programs) that has at least as profound an impact on the world’s trajectory as the Industrial Revolution did. \nHow large is an impact “as profound as the Industrial Revolution”? Roughly speaking, over the course of the Industrial Revolution, the rate of growth in gross world product (GWP) went from about ~0.1% per year before 1700 to ~1% per year after 1850, a tenfold acceleration. By analogy, I think of “transformative AI” as software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it).\nCurrently, the world economy is growing at ~2-3% per year, so TAI must bring the growth rate to 20%-30% per year if used everywhere it would be profitable to use. This means that if TAI is developed in year Y, the entire world economy would more than double by year Y + 4.\nHow many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?\nCriteria for AGI is same as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/).\nLet world real GDP be 25% higher than all prior years for the first time in year X. If X is 10 years before AGI is developed, the question resolves as +10. If X is 10 years after AGI is developed, the question resolves as -10.\nIf neither AGI is developed nor world real GDP becomes 25% higher than all prior years within resolve date, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n[Here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) are world real GDP growth rates since 1961. [Here](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) is an estimation of growth rates on a longer timescale.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:42.576Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T14:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T14:23:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030.\nSpaceX has been working on its own \"Mars\" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026.\nWill NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?\nThe resolution of this question depends on the relative timing of two events:\n1) A mission substantially (&gt;30%) or wholly funded by NASA successfully returns a sample from the surface of Mars to Earth.\n2) A rocket build by SpaceX designated as \"Starship\" or clearly designated as a successor to Starship successfully lands on Mars.\nThe question will resolve positive if event 1) happens before event 2).\nThe question will resolve negatively if event 2) happens before event 1).\nIf neither of these events happens before the closing date (2035) the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNote that the following series of events would result in a negative resolution: SpaceX builds a Starship rocket which is purchased by NASA. That rocket lands on Mars successfully. That rocket returns to Earth with samples from Mars in it. Because the SpaceX Starship landed on Mars before the NASA mission returned samples to Earth, the question resolves negative.\nSimilarly, the following sequence of events would resolve positive: NASA contracts a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX for one of its missions. That mission successfully returns samples to Earth before Starship lands on earth.\nIt is also worth noting that if both NASA and SpaceX hew to their currently claimed timelines, Starship will land on Mars in 2026, 4 years before a sample return mission is completed in 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:48.084Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7241/taiwan-covid-predictions-june-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On May 19th, [Taiwan imposed Level 3 restrictions across the entire country](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4206396).\nThis question tries to estimate whether or not those restrictions will reduce the spread of COVID in Taiwan.\nWhen will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3 to Level 2?\nThe data source used to resolve this question will be the [English version of the Taiwanese CDC website](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En). If an article is posted on the homepage announcing a reduction of restrictions in any area from Level 3 to a lower level, then the start date of the reduced restriction will be considered the answer.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:53.697Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:21:59.773Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 322,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:05.356Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the Dutch consortium of medical specialist organisations recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the consortium of medical specialist organizations reccomends:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nIn the [their treatment recommendations](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), a consortium of Dutch medical specialist organisations mentions evidence that vitamin D seems to protect patients from developing acute respiratory infections. However, for COVID-19 specifically, they conclude:\nAt present, there are insufficient data to recommend the use of vitamin D in the treatment or prevention of patients with COVID-19\nThe question resolves according to the reccomendations in the [recommendations overview](https://swab.nl/nl/covid-19#to_45), developed by the consortium of medical specialists. In case the effort is taken over another organisation the question resolves on the basis of those recommendations.\nThe consortium currently includes the CIB, NVZA, NVMM, NVII, NVIC, NVK, NVALT. It is considered to have ceased to exist if three or more of these organisations are no longer listed as collaborators. \nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:10.761Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:16.116Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 5303,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-10-12T22:19:37Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-10-12T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:21.360Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 251,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making &gt;22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:27.258Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7396/ea-forum-value-drift-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) is a centre of discussion for the Effective Altruism community. Users posts and comments are subject to upvotes and downvotes, and users with well received content accumulate [karma](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/about#Karma)\nThey formerly had a karma leaderboard but it was discontinued. Currently Issa Rice maintains a karma leaderboard [here](https://eaforum.issarice.com/userlist?sort=karma). The karma leaderboard ranking of users as of June 2021 can be found in the fine print as well as in [this Google Sheet with user IDs](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19fT-ZUlVRZUJ9DxTPvRJoE-gfTAaEHFfXhN_TDa_ARs/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question asks how many of the current top 50 users by karma as of June 15 2021 (see fine print for list of usernames) will have at least 1 post or 5 comments in the calendar year 2026, conditional on the EA Forum still existing. For reference, as of June 15 2021, all of the top 50 users meet this criteria for the preceding 12 months.\nHow many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?\nThis question resolves to the number of the top 50 EA forum users as of June 15 2021 who make at least one post or five comments in the calendar year 2026, conditional on the forum having any posts in that year.\nThe list of users this question should resolve based on:\naarongertler, michaela, peter_wildeford, habryka, khorton, larks, pablo_stafforini, linch, max_daniel, julia_wise, benjamin_todd, halstead, jonas-vollmer, michelle_hutchinson, ryancarey, milan_griffes, michaelstjules, buck, gregory_lewis, saulius, carl_shulman, robert_wiblin, william_macaskill, michaelplant, willbradshaw, denise_melchin, richard_ngo, owen_cotton-barratt, david_moss, edoarad, ben_west, wei_dai, oagr, kbog, michaeldickens, nunosempere, john_maxwell, joey, davidnash, stefan_schubert, cullen_okeefe, briantan, weeatquince, haukehillebrandt, jason-schukraft, ben_kuhn, agb, jeff_kaufman, alexrjl, jpaddison\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:33.376Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-04T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:38.653Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Polymarket is a prediction market platform. Polymarket has grown to host more than $100 million in total volume to date.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ coins, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market?\n---Market is considered to be \"wrongfully resolved\" if Polymarket confirms that or if a supermajority of Metaculus moderators/admins (2/3) thinks that the resolution does not correspond to resolution criteria.\n------This question will not resolve positively if the affected users are compensated within a week after the problem is noticed (e.g. on Polymarket Discord). \n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the platform ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their coins &amp;c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's coins would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n[Edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-27: clarified that a supermajority is 2/3.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:44.043Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 111,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?\n---Implications: (A) Unless dramatic increase in fire rate, greatly extended fighting, (B) More foreign funding of Hamas than likely expected \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n-----------------------------------------------\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel_in_2021) and [Jewish Virtual Library](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel) pages report over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.\nIf only one of the sources reports over 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 750 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:49.318Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7509/paying-us-taxes-in-bitcoin/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is complementary to another on the [legality of Bitcoin](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/). Measuring legality requires a cluster of angles.\nWill it be legal at any point to pay taxes in Bitcoin in the U.S. before 2030?\nQuestion resolves positively if at any point before January 1st, 2030, there exist an IRS publication at [irs.gov](http://irs.gov), that explains or gives instructions on how to pay taxes to the IRS with Bitcoin.\n1-- \nSome crypto payment services work by exchanging the crypto for fiat at the point of transaction, and then sends fiat. That doesn't count -- what the IRS must receive and accept is the Bitcoin.\n2-- \nThere is no requirement for the IRS to then hold onto that Bitcoin after receiving it, they could sell if for USD or anything else. It is only required that they accept it for the transaction.\n3-- \nIt can't be part of a punitive action by the IRS nor another part of the government. It must be that the person was making an otherwise-normal payment toward their income taxes or capital gains tax, in good legal standing. If the IRS seized their crypto holdings due to illegal activity, that is not the spirit of the question.\n4-- \nThere is no requirement that the Bitcoin transaction be on-chain. If the IRS accepted a custodial transfer of Bitcoin that was held by a bank in trust on behalf of the taxpayer, or if the taxpayer sent the Bitcoin using a lightning network payment channel, or if they sent it using a sidechain, or sent it using a wrapped BTC on another blockchain -- those are all acceptable. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:22:54.856Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:00.131Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T02:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T03:04:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7431/germanys-future-age-structure/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows:\nHow high will Germany's total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:05.398Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 11,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-12-31T20:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Embryo selection is](https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection):\nA few eggs are extracted from a woman and fertilized; each resulting sibling embryo is biopsied for a few cells which are sequenced. A single polygenic score is used to rank the embryos by predicted future trait-value, and surviving embryos are implanted one by one until a healthy live birth happens or there are no more embryos. By starting with the top-ranked embryo, an average gain is realized.\nThe basic form of this technology, involving simple genetic testing for karyotype (chromosome numbers) and specific (near)-monogenic diseases (e.g. Tay-Sachs) has been used in humans for years. However, the most recent iteration that involves scoring embryos for polygenic traits (e.g. height, intelligence, type 2 diabetes) has only been used a few times so far.\nThere is another upcoming technology in this area: iterated embryos selection. Here we select on embryos while also applying in vitro gametogenesis to generate gametes (eggs and spermatozoa) from embryos, thus skipping the step of having to birth a human:\n(Also called “whizzogenetics”, “in vitro eugenics”, or “in vitro breeding”/IVB.) A large set of cells, perhaps from a diverse set of donors, is regressed to stem cells, turned into both sperm/egg cells, fertilizing each other, and then the top-ranked embryos are selected, yielding a moderate gain; those embryos are not implanted but regressed back to stem cells, and the cycle repeats. Each “generation” the increases accumulate; after perhaps a dozen generations, the trait-values have increased many SDs, and the final embryos are then implanted.\nThis approach is nearing reality, as various academic publications note, e.g. [\"Artificially produced gametes in mice, humans and other species\" (2021)](https://www.publish.csiro.au/rd/RD20265), [\"Overview of In Vitro Gametogenesis in Mice, Future Applications, and Related Social Changes and Ethics\" (2020)](https://repository.yu.edu/handle/20.500.12202/5635), [\"Roadmap of germline development and in vitro gametogenesis from pluripotent stem cells\" (2019)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/andr.12726). There are other uses than genetic selection, since this method allows people to self-fertilize (generate both gametes from one person), and fertilize using homosexual parents (one supplies each gamete type). Bioethicists are already discussing such matters, e.g. [\"Drawing the line on in vitro gametogenesis\" (2020)](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bioe.12679). Thus, to better forecast the potential of human iterated embryo selection, we care about when the component technology will be ready for use.\nWhen will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?\n---A trustworthy report of a case of human in vitro gametogenesis leading to a live birth. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:10.865Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing and this progress has been accelerating, especially with developments like [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3). GPT-3 has proven surprisingly capable at a wide variety of question answering tasks, but it currently is not able to make accurate Metaculus forecasts. However, as question answering and AI gets more advanced and AI supercedes humans at more and more tasks, when will AI become a better forecaster on Metaculus?\nWhen will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?\nThis question resolves positive as the date that all the following are true:\n1.) A Metaculus account is run entirely by an AI program without any human assistance\n2.) This account answers 200 randomly chosen Metaculus questions\n3.) This account maintains (a) an average of more than 30 points per resolved question, (b) a \"Log score (discrete) evaluated at all times\" greater than the community prediction, and (c) a \"Log score (discrete) evaluated at all times\" greater than the respective scores for the community prediction across the first 100 of the questions to resolve\n4.) At least 50 of the questions predicted must involve predictions made within the first half of the question's time horizon\n5.) At least 20 of the questions predicted must be continuous and at least 20 of the questions predicted must be discrete\n6.) the program must use only free publicly available information accessible by the typical Metaculite\n7.) the program does not have access to the community or Metaculus predictions.\n8.) the program must output a public text explanation of the rationale behind its forecasts for at least 10 of the randomly chosen Metaculus questions that are all deemed in good faith by a Metaculus moderator or admin to reasonably justify the prediction in question\n(edited 2020-05-02 to add specification that AI does not have the CP or MP.)\nThe program source code may be open or closed source, but the source code must be able to be inspected by a Metaculus admin to ensure it fulfills all seven criteria.\nA public text explanation by a program will \"reasonably justify the prediction in question\" if it contains more than fifty words, references only true facts that are relevant to the question, produces the same forecast as the one entered on the Metaculus question, allows one to recreate the forecast through the stated reasoning (e.g., via a referenced base rate plus adjustments), and cites relevant sources as necessary. The good faith of a Metaculus moderator or admin will be relied upon for assessing the reasonableness, and the Metaculus admin or moderator should err on the side of the program in cases where the reasonableness is ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:16.132Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-24T13:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2299-01-01T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:22.154Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 189,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to Satoshi's claimed birth date, it will have been 100 years since zir birth in 2075-04-05 (source: [Satoshi Nakamoto ⁠— Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto)).\nWe don't know for sure which Bitcoins belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, but the addresses ze owns have been estimated in [The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius](https://bitslog.com/2013/04/17/the-well-deserved-fortune-of-satoshi-nakamoto/) which amount to about 1 million Bitcoins (although another group argues that only ~60-70% of those are zirs: [Satoshi’s 1 Million Bitcoin Haul Could Be Smaller Than First Thought](https://news.bitcoin.com/satoshis-1-million-bitcoin-haul-could-be-smaller-than-first-thought/)). None of those Bitcoins have changed wallets since 2010. As of 2020-02-24, they are currently worth ~10 billion USD.\nThis question resolves positively if some credible media reports that some of those Bitcoins have been transferred.\nIf any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack, it doesn't count. If Satoshi Nakamoto gave zir bitcoins to someone else which then spends them, this still counts. Any amount of Bitcoins used counts.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:27.682Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:33.278Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 291,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Nate Silver release his 2nd book?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7012/release-date-of-nate-silvers-2nd-book/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/) and the author of 2012's “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”\nOn April 8th, 2021, Nate [stated](https://youtu.be/O1mu6AguEZQ?t=128): \"I guess I can't formally announce this new book yet because we haven't signed the contract yet, but I've had encouraging conversations with my agent and publisher and have a strong inkling for the direction I want to go for my second book.\"\nWhen will Nate Silver release his 2nd book?\nThe first date on which a book authored primarily or solely by Nate Silver is officially released (i.e. available in bookstores or shipped to public customers for the first time).\nThis will likely be resolved via the release date shown on [Amazon US](https://www.amazon.com/), but may resolve earlier if there is evidence that the book will be shipped earlier via some other method available to the entire public (i.e. directly via a website credibly linked to Nate Silver).\nPre-sale dates, pre-release contests not available to everyone in the public, or the like will not count toward resolution. This question will not resolve until the date of release has arrived and there is no evidence of any delay in the release date.\nChapters or similar contributions written by Silver in a book or other medium where he is not the sole author will not count toward resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:38.509Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $10 million to the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\" in 2020 and $56 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Criminal Justice Reform\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Criminal Justice Reform should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:44.221Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.\n[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides. \nThis question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?\nOnly one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:50.392Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 146,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-03T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7348/total-retail-sales-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for July 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:23:55.901Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-08T23:51:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-17T23:52:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.\nWill most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nFor the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand.\nThe question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.\nThe question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:01.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-08T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-03T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "China is currently [the most populous county in the world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), with 17.9% of the global population. Historically, only [various Chinese empires](https://vividmaps.com/largest-empires-by-population/) and the Mongol and Roman Empires have exceeded 30% of the global population. This question asks if by 2100, there will be a centralised government ruling over 80% of the world's population, and accounting for over 80% of global GDP.\nWill one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if a single government rules over 80% of Earth population and 80% of Earth GDP at any point before January 1st 2100. An organisation would be considered an Earth government if it has supreme military authority in its territory, a unified foreign policy and the power to collect taxes and make laws. This would include the 2021 United States and exclude the 2021 European Union or United Nations.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:06.881Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-07-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7136/7-day-avg-of-1-october-covid-tests-in-va/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key uncertainty is the number of SARS-CoV-2 tests that will be administered through this fall — maintaining adequate testing levels is important for capturing positive COVID-19 cases.\nOn 23 April 2021, the 7-day moving average of number of the number of testing encounters by lab report date was 17,174.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"7-day moving average of number of testing encounters\" figure under \"Number of Testing Encounters by Lab Report Date - All Health Districts, PCR Only\" on 1 October 2021 on the VDH [SARS-CoV-2 Testing dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-testing/).\nIf the number of testing encounters is greater than 40000, this resolves as &gt;40k\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:17.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 199,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Even though [Beresheet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet) and [Chandrayaan-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-2) both crashed into the moon in 2019, Israel and India continue in their attempts to soft-land on the moon. Israel's next attempt, [Beresheet 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beresheet_2), is set for a [landing in 2022](https://www.space.com/israel-beresheet-moon-lander-try-again.html) as of October 2019. On the other hand, the [Indian Space Research Organisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Space_Research_Organisation) (ISRO) may work with Japan's [JAXA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) in the [Chandrayaan-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, with a suggested launch date of 2024.\nSo far, only the US, Russia, and China have landed spacecraft intact on the moon.\nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a new country does so before December 31, 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:23.157Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 195,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7372/us-michigan-csi-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.\n“Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.\nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:28.857Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-11T01:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-25T01:31:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7371/non-farm-payroll-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of September, which will be released in early October This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:34.596Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 45,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-02T01:29:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-12T01:29:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "If you look through Wikipedia's [List of wars and anthropogenic disasters by death toll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll), China features highly across a range of different disaster types, higher than India; However, both India and China have had roughly comparable population sizes for as [long as we have data for it](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimates_of_historical_world_population#World_Population_Estimates,_20_Countries_and_Regional_Totals,_0%E2%80%932000_AD_(in_thousands)).\nWill an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India?\nResolves positively if an anthropogenic disaster resulting in the death of at least 10,000,000 people occurs in China before one happens in India.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:40.235Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:45.490Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 240,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T22:47:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-05T22:48:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Following his [public re-entry to the web](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/youre-probably-wondering-why-ive), blogger Scott Alexander has started a routine series of posts he calls [\"Metaculus Monday\"](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday). He's taken the first two of these to review Metaculus on the [near future of COVID-19](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday), and [longer-term futures of Artificial Intelligence](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/metaculus-monday-2821). Perhaps a future post will mention this question!\nWill this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if either:\n---the title or question text of this question is mentioned \n---the URL of this question is included \n...in the text of an Astral Codex Ten post.\nA substack comment will not suffice for a positive resolution, even if that comment is authored by Scott Alexander.\nIf the question title or text is present but obscured (such as being incorrectly transcribed), this is sufficient to resolve positively.\nIt does not need to be a \"Metaculus Monday\" post: any post on Astral Codex Ten in 2021 may include positively-resolving content. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:50.808Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-30T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-02T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-08T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:24:55.997Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&amp;utm_campaign=8140492012&amp;utm_content=84157057397&amp;utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:01.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as &lt;20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:07.059Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:12.332Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding &gt;75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:18.323Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 185,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Soy remains one of the most popular plant based alternatives because it contains [high levels of protein](https://wpcmed.com/soy-a-healthy-protein-alternative/), and like animal proteins, is a complete protein, meaning it contains all the essential amino acids needed for the human body. Soy based products like tofu and soy milk also contain less saturated fat than their meat and dairy counterparts, making it an ideal substitute for traditional animal products. \nSoy became [popular as an alternative protein source](https://www.foodprocessing.com/articles/2020/alternative-proteins-the-problems-and-the-promise/) by Atkins in the mid 20th century as the main ingredient in TVP (texturized vegetable protein).\n“The original textured vegetable protein or TVP, which we helped to formulate and is a trademark of ADM, was invented by William T. Atkinson in the 1950s and 1960s,” says Schuh. Atkinson developed a process to “texturize” soy flour into a meat-like substance using an extruder with mechanical shear and heat, combined with the injection of water. “The original TVP was a fibrous, spongy material used as a stand-alone meat alternative product, as well a nutritional extender in meat and poultry products to reduce costs and increase protein content.”\nWhile soy is still one of the [most common alternative protein sources](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/alternative-proteins-the-race-for-market-share-is-on) for plant based meat, like the Impossible Burger, its presence as one of the ‘big eight’ allergens make it difficult for some consumers to purchase and eat these products, leading to a rise in popularity for pea protein alternatives.\nWill soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication demonstrates that a process successfully produces de-allergenized soybeans. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nThe relevant process must eliminate sufficient portion of allergens so as to successfully prevent the immune response to any of the proteins: [Gly m Bd 60K, Gly m Bd 30K and Gly m Bd 28K](https://reeis.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/0212493-development-of-hypoallergenic-fermented-soybean-products.html). \nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:23.712Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T22:39:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:39:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7366/initial-jobless-claims-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 30, 2021 for the reference date September 25, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:29.025Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-21T01:22:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-01T01:22:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7357/initial-jobless-claims-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Initial jobless claims](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market, which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n---[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0) \n---[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) \n---[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) \n---[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims) \n---[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3) \nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) as reported on September 2, 2021 for the reference date August 28, 2021. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:34.267Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-24T01:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-03T01:02:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7370/eia-crude-oil-stock-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\nCrude oil, gas, and petroleum remain [linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do [impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nWhat will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of September in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/eia-crude-oil-stocks-change). This will include the reporting dates for 8-September, 15-September, 22-September, 29-September.\nFor reference, a [previous report](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf) released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:39.431Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-23T01:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T01:28:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&amp;P 500, or simply the S&amp;P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&amp;P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&amp;P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:44.690Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 92,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (&gt;230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:50.191Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 211,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-09T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “&gt; Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:25:55.390Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 543,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7546/deaths-from-covid-19-per-year-2022-2025-in-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Most scientists [now believe](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2) that, even with the vaccines, the SARS-CoV-2 virus will continue to circulate throughout the globe for many years to come. The new Delta variant has prompted [new alarm](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/17/1017075240/delta-variant-is-spreading-fast-and-new-cases-are-rising-is-time-to-mask-up-agai) and triggered again calls for indoor masking and social distancing. Anecdotally, many people are disgruntled by these developments, because they want life to truly get back to normal, the way it was back in 2019.\nIn order for life to return to complete normality by the end of the decade, there must be a presumption that COVID-19 is no longer a significant threat, and in any case will not get substantially worse if restrictions are lifted. One way of measuring this presumption is to predict how many deaths there will be of COVID-19 on average during the years to come.\nHow many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the mean number of people reported to have died of COVID-19 in the United States during the years 2022 through 2025, according to official statistics. In other words, add up the number of people who died during each year from 2022 to 2025, and divide that number by 4.\nOfficial statistics refer to statistics released by official government sources, such as the CDC. If no official statistics are provided, then authoritative academic reports will be consulted. If those are unavailable, then high quality media reports will be consulted. In case two sources conflict, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in deciding which source is more authoritative.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:00.578Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6929/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q3 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:05.854Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-10T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-30T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-16T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7514/taliban-capture-of-afghan-presidential-palace/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In April 2021, U.S. President Biden [announced a plan](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan-september-11-d2c7426736f9f530e0e62f2295a44d28) to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September. As of the time of writing of this question (July 2021), media [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/08/politics/biden-afghanistan-speech/index.html) indicate that the withdrawal is now 90% complete, and should be fully completed by [31 August 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Afghanistan_(2020%E2%80%932021)). \nSince the withdrawal of American military forces began, the Taliban has re-emerged as a significant regional power, taking over large swaths of the country.\nIn early July 2021, the Associated Press [reported Taliban advances](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/taliban-districts-ne-afghanistan-fleeing-troops-78658014) in several northern districts:\nThe Taliban's march through northern Afghanistan gained momentum overnight with the capture of several districts from fleeing Afghan forces, several hundred of whom fled across the border into Tajikistan, officials said Sunday.\nLater the same month, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/half-all-afghan-district-centers-under-taliban-control-us-general-2021-07-21/) the comment from the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, that Taliban forces currently control 50% of Afghan district centers:\nMilley said more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. Last month, he had said the Taliban controlled 81 district centers in Afghanistan.\nIt is currently unclear whether the Taliban will be able to take control of the capital and largest city in Afghanistan, [Kabul](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul) (which has an estimated 2021 population of 4.6 million and is the only Afghan city with over 1 million inhabitants), or if their control will be restricted to rural districts. \nIt is possible that the Taliban could lay claim to only some of Kabul's [22 districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kabul#Districts), so rather than asking about Taliban control of the entire city, this question will focus on its potential capture of [ARG, the Presidential Palace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arg_(Kabul)), located within District 2. ARG houses the offices of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. \nWill the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 9/11/2026?\nIf credible media reports that the Taliban have captured the Presidential Palace in Kabul at some point on or before September 11, 2026, this question resolves positively, otherwise negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:11.012Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-09-11T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7361/eia-crude-oil-stock-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market. When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\nCrude oil, gas, and petroleum remain [linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do [impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&amp;text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nWhat will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the monthly average for the change in commercial crude oil inventories for the month of August in millions of barrels as reported through the EIA in their Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Historical data on a weekly basis can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/eia-crude-oil-stocks-change). This will include the reporting dates for 4-August, 11-August, 18-August, 25-August.\nFor reference, a [previous report](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf) released on May 5 shows the weekly change in commercial crude oil inventories at -8M barrels.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:16.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-19T01:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-26T01:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [physicsworld](https://physicsworld.com/a/fast-quantum-random-number-generator-could-advance-cryptography-on-the-cheap/), \nWhen numbers are used to securely encode information, the randomness of those numbers is crucial: a string of truly random numbers is one that a hacker can never guess. In classical physics, however, all processes – even chaotic ones – are deterministic, making true randomness impossible. [..] In the quantum world, in contrast, “there are these fundamentally non-deterministic processes,” says Nathan Walk, a physicist at Freie Universitat Berlin, Germany\n[Proof of Stake (PoS)](https://eth.wiki/en/concepts/proof-of-stake-faqs) is a type of consensus algorithm used by cryptocurrencies. Unlike Proof of Work (used by Bitcoin), PoS does not incentivize extreme amounts of energy consumption. PoS uses a pseudo-random process to select the validator to create the next block.\nScott Aaronson, a theoretical computer scientist with a focus on quantum computing, wrote in his [blog](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4317) that\nbecause of my certified randomness protocol, which shows how a sampling-based quantum supremacy experiment could almost immediately be repurposed to generate bits that can be proven to be random to a skeptical third party (under computational assumptions). This, in turn, has possible applications to proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies and other cryptographic protocols.\nRandom number generators have been shown to be vulnerable in the past and the future of PoS cryptocurrencies may rely on their security. During the [Hot Lotto fraud scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lotto_fraud_scandal),\nIt came to light in 2017, after Eddie Raymond Tipton, the former information security director of the Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL), confessed to rigging a random number generator that he and two others used in multiple cases of fraud against state lotteries. Tipton was first convicted in October 2015 of rigging a $14.3 million drawing of MUSL's lottery game Hot Lotto.\nAdditionally, as part of the [Bullrun program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullrun_(decryption_program)#Methods), the NSA was reported to have a backdoor in the Dual_EC_DRBG random number generator.\nWill a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?\nThis question will resolve positively if a credible media, company, or scientific source reports that a cryptocurrency has been created using a quantum random number generator and uses quantum random number generation as part of its normal functioning on an ongoing basis.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:21.551Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2032-12-31T21:46:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-12-31T21:45:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the US, enrollment in 4-year colleges has been steadily increasing since the 1970s, [from around 17.1% to 29.9% in 2015.](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp )\nDespite this, the economist Bryan Caplan [has recently argued](https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11225.html) that this time spent in college by an increasing proportion of youth is wasteful, as the primary function of education is not to enhance students' skill but to certify their intelligence, work ethic, and conformity — in other words, to signal the qualities of a good employee.\nAs increasing numbers of students get more degrees, the harder it becomes to remain competitive in the job market without spending lots of time in education — essentially creating a prisoner's dilemma in which it is individually rational, but socially harmful to waste evermore time getting degrees. This has made some confident that educational enrolment will only increase over time, including the aforementioned economist [who has been placing bets on this.](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/)\nWill the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges in 2025 be more than 10% lower than in 2015?\nSince the 2015 rate is 29.9%, positive resolution is conditional on a rate 26.91% or less in 2025 [as reported by data from the National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp ).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:31.923Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 201,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-09-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:37.290Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html). \nThere has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).\nWill Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?\nResolves as yes upon widespread media reports of Trump declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary.\nReporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt that his announcement is genuine (for example, he teases an announcement that is only initially reported as if it were firm), go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed \"FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy\" with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2024 United States Presidential election. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:48.631Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 584,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-11-15T22:42:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-11-16T18:43:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others. \nFor this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.\nLet’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.\nWill Volkswagen Group have produced fewer than 22 million electric vehicles with their MEB by 2030?\nResolution conditions: \n---Only fully electric vehicles produced based upon the [MEB](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform) (or a possible successor) will count towards that number \n---\"By 2030\" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31 \n---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a &gt;100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:54.048Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Nobel Prize-winning detection of gravitational waves added a new observational tool for astronomers to use in studying celestial events. But an as-yet-unobserved phenomenon would make all the gravitational wave detections so far seem like small potatoes. \nWhen two galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes at their centers would merge as well, and the process would emit gravitational waves. But the wavelength of those waves would be undetectable by the LIGO observatory. They're best detected by pulsar.\nPulsars emit electromagnetic radiation at regular intervals. A gravitational wave would slightly change the distance from the Earth to a pulsar, and thus slightly change the pulsar's timing as well. \nIn a paper in [Nature Astronomy](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-017-0299-6), astronomers use observation data and models of supermassive black hole merger events to conclude that we should be able to detect such an event within the next 10 years. If we don't, it could indicate that our [hypotheses about these large black hole mergers need some refinement](https://www.simonsfoundation.org/2017/11/13/gravitational-waves-supermassive-black-hole-merger/).\nWill gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if by November 30, 2027, a peer-reviewed publication announces the results of such an event. Statistical significance should be at the 4-sigma or equivalent level.\n(edit 1/1017) November 30 is now a publication date rather than data cutoff date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:26:59.931Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 268,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-11-30T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's [largest private US companies by revenue](https://www.statista.com/statistics/549091/largest-private-us-companies-by-revenue/) for further examples.\nHowever, for many companies, \"going public\" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to \"cash out\" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.\nQuestion: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?\nThe obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.\nI included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:05.080Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-12-15T03:35:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n--- \nRussia: 6,257 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUS: 5,550 nuclear warheads\n--- \nChina: 350 nuclear warheads\n--- \nFrance: 290 nuclear warheads\n--- \nUK: 225 nuclear warheads\n--- \nPakistan: 165 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIndia: 160 nuclear warheads\n--- \nIsrael: 90 nuclear warheads\n--- \nNorth Korea: Estimated 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower.\")\nHow many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?\nThis question resolves as the number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) detonated offensively in total between the opening of this question and 2050. If there are no offensive detonations before 2050 by any state or non-state actor, then this question will resolve as &lt;1. Neither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nResolution criteria will come from historical consensus as of January 1, 2055.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:10.600Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 123,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:13:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2055-01-02T00:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:15.832Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 449,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&amp;smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:21.225Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the non-test detonation of a nuclear weapon after the question opens and before 2050, what fraction of individual nuclear strikes will be countervalue strikes.\nWhat fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of nuclear strikes carried out by any country or non-state actor by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A strike is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the attack (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nNuclear strikes here includes authorised strikes, accidental strikes, and strikes by non-state actors. But it does not include [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) or [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), even if such detonations cause substantial damage. \nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no non-test nuclear detonations carried out by any country after the question opens and before 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:26.403Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by 2028-07-31? \nWe specify this as follows. By 2028-07-31, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:31.630Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 481,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.\n[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php) of China's by 2030:\n--- \nPeaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and making best efforts to peak early;\n--- \nIncreasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and\n--- \nIncreasing the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level.\nCurrently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china-making-progress-climate-goals-faster-expected) toward all of these goals.\nWill China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:36.922Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 327,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Square Kilometre Array (SKA)](https://www.skatelescope.org/) is a proposed radio-telescope more than a 50 times more sensitive than the current record holder. \nWith receiving stations extending out to a distance of at least 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) from a concentrated central core, it would exploit radio astronomy's ability to provide the highest resolution images in all astronomy. The SKA would be built in the southern hemisphere, with cores in South Africa and Australia, where the view of the Milky Way Galaxy is the best and radio interference at its least.\nAs such it is a multinational effort with, as of this writing, 11 countries contributing. \nThe creation of the SKA is separated into two phases:\n1--Providing ~10% of the total collecting area at low and mid frequencies by 2023 (SKA1). \n2--Completion of the full array (SKA2) at low and mid frequencies by 2030. \nThese huge science project often face challenges on the political, administrative, and technological level; what is planned doesn’t necessarily get built.\n\nWill the SKA be operational before 2031?\n\n---Resolves positive when the Square Kilometre Array Observatory or successor organisation announces completion of the SKA (including SKA1 &amp; SKA2). \n---Resolves negative when the SKA (including SKA1 &amp; SKA2) doesn’t open before 2031. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:42.344Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 137,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-12T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted \"first in the nation\" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.\nOn 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead\" on MSNBC.\nWill this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?\nThis question will resolve positively if, at least once before the end of 2028, Iowa holds (a) a US Democratic primary election that is both (b) a caucus (as distinct from a primary) and (c) is \"first in the nation\".\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"caucus\" is defined as any system where, (I) rather than going to polls and casting ballots, selectors gather at set locations throughout the state's precincts (e.g., schools, churches, public libraries, casinos) and (II) physically order in publicly-known preference groups and then (III) reallocate according to a viability threshold. (See [\"walking subcaucus\" voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_subcaucus) for details, though any such method meeting I-III will qualify).\nA \"first in the nation primary event\" is defined as a Presidential primary event that awards delegates to the national convention for the purposes of selecting the presidential candidate such that no other such events in that nominating process take place prior or simultaneous with the \"first in the nation primary event\".\nThe \"US Democratic primary election\" refers to a Presidential primary event that selects delegates for [the National Convention of the United States Democratic Primary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_National_Convention).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:47.515Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:52.795Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 159,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock?\nWill Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.\nLocal elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.\nThis question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.\nResolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:27:58.604Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 211,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \"&gt;2090-10-25\". \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:04.018Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7367/total-retail-sales-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for September 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:09.434Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-07T01:23:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-21T01:24:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:14.716Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7246/water-shortage-in-the-us-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is speculation that the US federal government needs to declare first-ever official shortage declaration in the US West. That would mean mandatory water cutbacks in some states. \nABC News: [US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-west-prepares-1st-water-shortage-declaration-77139468). \nNPR: [Melting Snow Usually Means Water For The West. But This Year, It Might Not Be Enough](https://text.npr.org/998566953)\nWill the U.S. Federal government issue its first-ever shortage declaration in the U.S. West in 2021?\nResolves true if the US Federal government agency (most likely USBR) declares a water shortage in some states or regions in the US in 2021. The declaration must be published on relevant federal government website like [United States Bureau of Reclamation](https://www.usbr.gov/), [U.S Department of Interior](https://www.doi.gov/), or [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:20.072Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-14T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-29T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:25.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "So-called \"third parties\" are political parties in the United State that aren't the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Members of [third parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_party_(United_States)) rarely win elections in America. However, the [last third party member](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsRepresentingThirdorMinorParties.htm) who won a senate election was James L. Buckley in 1970.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"independent\" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:30.788Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7226/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[This is a continuation of [a previous question that closed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/)]\nSpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a \"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\". Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" several minutes later.\nSpaceX has another rocket system, Falcon 9, which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \nThe question will close 48 hours after the community median comes within 10 days of the then-current date, so as to prevent the question from focusing too much on short-term details and events\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:35.991Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 68,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-05-18T17:21:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-19T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 17 June 2019, the [Rightmove House Price Index](https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2019/06/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-17-June-2019.pdf) indicates that the average cost of a property in the UK is £309,348; just £91 short of the all-time record reached in June 2018.\nIn any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?\nResolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:41.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 402,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:\nWhen practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China? \nFor these purposes we define \"practical\" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/). \nResolves positively if the first such thing is in China; negatively if the first such thing is built elsewhere; ambiguous if no such thing is built by 2050.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:47.214Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 378,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Nuclear weapons have only been detonated offensively twice. Both detonations were by the US over Japanese cities in 1945. [As of May 2021](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), the US and two of its strategic rivals are the states with the most nuclear warheads in the world (Russia with 6,257, the US with 5,550, and China with 350). \nWill there be at least one fatality in the US from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2050, if an offensive detonation occurs anywhere?\nThis question resolves positively if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs before 2050 and causes at least one fatality in the US. This question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations before 2050. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. Detonations by either state or non-state actors can count towards question resolution. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:52.436Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T21:45:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:45:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [meat or dairy tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax) is a tax levied on the purchase or consumption of meat and/or other animal products to disincentivize the production or consumption of meat products. \nMeat and dairy production is known to be a disproportional contributor of emissions, attributing approximately half of food-derived GHG emissions, while only accounting for one-third of the dietary energy intake worldwide ([Broeks et al., 2020](https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-020-08590-z)). Hence, many have advocated for a meat production or consumption tax (see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_tax#Proponents)).\nWill a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if a meat or dairy consumption tax is imposed by the US federal government, or by any country that is a EU member state (at the time when it imposes such a tax), by 2023-01-01 at 12:00PM EST. \n--- \nQualifying taxes include [excise tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excise) (i.e. a per unit tax that applies to a narrow range of products), or a [sales tax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sales_tax) (i.e. a tax levied on the sale of a good to its final end user and is charged every time that item is sold retail). \n--- \nThe tax must be applied to the meat of any of the following: cattle, pig, sheep, chicken; or to cow milk \n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the consumption tax is applied nation-wide, and that the tax goes into effect by the resolution date.\n--- \nAn increase in VAT specific to meat and dairy products in any member state of the EU will also count towards positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:28:57.692Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:35:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:35:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:02.968Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:08.195Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 123,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:13.384Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:18.696Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe Maunder Minimum, which took place in the late 17th and early 18th centuries, was associated with several successive unusually low-activity solar cycles. During this period, [very few sunspots appeared](https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum) on the surface of the Sun, and the overall luminosity of the Sun was slightly lower than average. During this period, temperatures on Earth dropped, and the the Northern hemisphere experienced a ‘little Ice Age.” Opinions diverge on whether the dearth solar activity was causative for the temperature decline. Volcanic activity, for example, may have been [more directly responsible](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120130131509.htm) for the temporary cooling.\nAs [Petrovay (2020)](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) states in their recent review article:\n“With the known poor cycle-to-cycle correlation, strong deviations from the long-term mean would be expected to be damped on time scales short compared to, e.g., the length of the Maunder minimum. This suggests that the persistent states of low or high activity may be due to truly long term memory effects extending over several cycles.”\nInterestingly, Solar Cycle 24 presented the first major decrease in solar activity levels since the 1950s. Given the likelihood that the Sun’s field configuration harbors some degree of long-term memory of its state, Cycle 25 might be expected to be relatively low in terms of both activity and sunspot numbers. This inference has been challenged, however, and so the actual development of solar activity levels during Cycle 25 will help confirm or deny the hypothesis that the Sun is transitioning into mini-Maunder event.\nIf Earth is set to experience a prolonged damper on the Sun’s activity, does that imply a green light to ditch the Prius and gas up the SUV? (Un)fortunately, the answer is no. [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2953/there-is-no-impending-mini-ice-age/) and other sources are in consensus that Earth will definitely not enter another mini-ice age in the 21st Century. Climate inputs such as the Sun’s activity-induced variation are dwarfed by the greenhouse warming associated with rapid ongoing increase in atmospheric concentrations of molecules such as CO2 that are effective absorbers of infrared light.\n“The warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from the human burning of fossil fuels is six times greater than the possible decades-long cooling from a prolonged Grand Solar Minimum. Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm. The reason for this is because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today is the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”\nWill a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 24 or 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThis question will be resolved as either positive or negative from authoritative sources such as [NASA](https://science.nasa.gov/), or the [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/). If a mini-Maunder event does not occur in Solar Cycle 24 or in Cycle 25 then the question will resolve negatively, if an event does occur, it will resolve positively. If there is not sufficient data to arrive at a conclusion, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:23.964Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T02:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:31:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:29.224Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is the founder and/or CEO of several companies, including electric vehicle company Tesla, space exploration and nascent Internet provider company SpaceX, tunneling company The Boring Company, and brain interface company Neuralink. He is currently the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $167 billion, according to [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/).\nHe [was briefly the richest person in the world](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/elon-musk-is-richest-man-on-the-planet-mukesh-ambani-ranks-eighth/article33968896.ece/amp/) in early 2021.\nThis question asks if he will hold that status as of year end 2025.\nWill Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if Elon Musk is the world's richest person according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) as of December 31st, 2025. It resolves negatively otherwise. \nIf the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is no longer published, the [Forbes Real Time Billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#13e9791c3d78) list should be used. If neither list is published, this will resolve according to the source identified by a consensus of Metaculus moderators; if there is no clear consensus, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:34.396Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2041/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Direct Action Everywhere](https://www.directactioneverywhere.com/theliberationist/some-big-updates-to-dxes-roadmap-to-animal-liberation) recently updated their [roadmap to animal liberation](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YN7KpuShiZItqVuQtWv6ykrjrNv6rAnmjVOcsofRj0I/edit) to move the expected date of an Animal Bill of Rights forward from 2055 to 2040. An Animal Bill of Rights refers to extending constitutional protections in the US to animals, such that specifically all animal farming is made illegal by either a constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court ruling interpreting the existing constitution to prohibit animal farming. This question asks if they will be proved correct, while also accepting a legislative ban on animal farming for positive resolution.\nWill commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2041?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government passes legislation or the US constitution has been amended or interpreted by the Supreme Court to prohibit commercial animal farming by the end of 2040.\nCommercial Animal farming is considered to be the branch of agriculture involving animals that are raised for the commerce of meat, fibre, milk, eggs, or other physical products. For example, dairy cows should count as animal farming, but not pet chickens or animals kept in zoos for entertainment purposes. Both aquaculture (fish-farming) and fishing for wild fish should also count for resolution of this question. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:39.776Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:45.175Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-16T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Republican Party†, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party†, including if they are independents who caucus with Republicans.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\n† If both elected senators are members of a Repubilcan Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party) for the Democratic Party), they will be considered Republicans for this question, assuming the Republican Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:50.661Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&amp;cond=Covid19&amp;draw=2&amp;rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt; 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:29:55.918Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 391,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:07.214Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Johnson), born 19 June 1964, is a British politician and writer serving as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since July 2019.\nJohnson is considered a divisive or controversial figure in UK politics. Supporters have praised him as optimistic, humorous and entertaining, with an appeal stretching beyond traditional Conservative voters. Conversely, his critics have accused him of elitism, cronyism, and prejudice. His actions that are viewed by supporters as pragmatic tend to be viewed by opponents as opportunistic.\nAs of April 2021, Johnson is the subject of a controversy concerning renovation of his official residence in Downing Street, and [the British Electoral Commission is to investigate the affair.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56915307)\nThe spending watchdog said there were \"reasonable grounds to suspect that an offence or offences may have occurred\".\nThe PM is under growing pressure to declare how refurbishments were paid for after his ex-adviser said there was a plan for donors to \"secretly pay\".\nMr Johnson told MPs he had covered the revamp \"personally\", but would not say who had paid the initial bill.\nAs of late April 2021, [Johnson's Conservative Party has a comfortable lead in national polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2021), a strong House of Commons majority, and no general election is required in 2021.\nWill Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on January 1 2022. It resolves negatively if this is not the case.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:12.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 169,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding &gt;75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2022.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:18.770Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 436,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 before 2121?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-to-fall-to-near-zero-by-2121/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In a column for the New York times in 2018, Paul Krugman [wrote](https://archive.is/sU6eS#selection-443.0-458.0),\nTo some extent gold is in a similar situation. Most gold just sits there, possessing value because people believe it possesses value. But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.\nCryptocurrencies, by contrast, have no backstop, no tether to reality. Their value depends entirely on self-fulfilling expectations – which means that total collapse is a real possibility. If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.\nI think it’s more likely than not, partly because of the gap between the messianic rhetoric of crypto and the much more mundane real possibilities. That is, there might be a potential equilibrium in which Bitcoin (although probably not other cryptocurrencies) remain in use mainly for black market transactions and tax evasion, but that equilibrium, if it exists, would be hard to get to from here: once the dream of a blockchained future dies, the disappointment will probably collapse the whole thing.\nWill the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 before 2121?\nThis question resolves positively if before 2121 and after 2020, the price of bitcoin at one point fell below $10 per bitcoin (in 2021 dollars). If dollars cease to exist, $10 in 2021 dollars is taken to be an amount of currency with the same purchasing power as $10 of 2021 dollars. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:24.001Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-12-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2121-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&amp;P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&amp;P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&amp;P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&amp;P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&amp;P 500 market value.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:29.239Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 347,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 an accidental or unauthorised detonation, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. This could include a non-state actor detonating a weapon seized from a state actor. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:34.508Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:07:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:07:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7423/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $25 million to the focus area \"Farmed Animal Welfare\" in 2020 and $40 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Farm Animal Welfare\" plus any additional focus areas aimed at helping animals. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Animal Welfare should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7422/open-phil-animal-welfare-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:39.852Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Elizabeth Holmes and Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani are charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and nine counts of wire fraud.](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/us-v-elizabeth-holmes-et-al)\nAccording to [the indictment](https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/page/file/1135066/download), the charges stem from allegations that Holmes and Balwani engaged in a multi-million-dollar scheme to defraud investors, and a separate scheme to defraud doctors and patients. Both schemes involved efforts to promote Theranos, a company founded by Holmes and based in Palo Alto, California.\nTheranos was a private health care and life sciences company with the stated mission to revolutionize medical laboratory testing through allegedly innovative methods for drawing blood, testing blood, and interpreting the resulting patient data.\nHolmes and Balwani used advertisements and solicitations to encourage and induce doctors and patients to use Theranos’s blood testing laboratory services, even though, according to the government, the defendants knew Theranos was not capable of consistently producing accurate and reliable results for certain blood tests. It is further alleged that the tests performed on Theranos technology were likely to contain inaccurate and unreliable results. Holmes denies the charges and is presumed to be innocent. \nTheranos raised more than $700 million from venture capitalists and private investors, resulting in a $10 billion valuation at its peak in 2013 and 2014. By 2015, [Forbes had named Holmes the youngest and wealthiest self-made female billionaire in America.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2015/05/27/forbes-announces-inaugural-list-of-americas-50-richest-self-made-women/)\nA turning point came later in 2015 when medical research professors John Ioannidis and Eleftherios Diamandis, along with investigative journalist John Carreyrou of The Wall Street Journal, questioned the validity of Theranos' technology. The company faced a string of legal and commercial challenges from medical authorities, investors, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, state attorneys general, former business partners, patients, and others. By June 2016, it was estimated that Holmes' personal net worth had dropped from $4.5 billion to virtually nothing. After efforts to find a buyer went nowhere, what remained of the company dissolved on September 4, 2018.\nHolmes is currently awaiting trial. The jury selection process will begin soon, [subject to further legal wrangling](https://www.wsj.com/articles/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-has-over-100-questions-for-jurors-11622217048), with the [trial expected to commence on August 31.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/17/elizabeth-holmes-trial-pushed-to-august-after-surprise-pregnancy-announcement.html) However, the trial has been delayed a number of times, and it may be delayed again. According to [a jury questionnaire proposed by Holmes' lawyers](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.327949/gov.uscourts.cand.327949.808.0.pdf), the trial is expected to last 13 weeks, or possibly longer.\nWill Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2023, Elizabeth Holmes is convicted of any charge of fraud, or conspiracy to commit fraud, in connection with Theranos. A conviction on any other charges will not count towards resolution. \nIf Holmes is not convicted on fraud charges connected to Theranos before 1 January 2023, this question resolves negatively. If Holmes' trial ends without a verdict, that will not automatically cause negative resolution, as it is possible that Holmes could be convicted in a subsequent retrial before 1 January 2023.\nIf this question is still open on the date that a verdict is rendered, a plea leading to conviction is entered, or the charges against Holmes are dismissed, the question should resolve retroactively to the time and date such an event is announced by the court, or by representatives of two opposing parties to the case.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:45.065Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\n---Implications: (A) Another week of intense fighting, (B) Sharp escalation of fighting, (C) Ceasefire before renewed fighting by end of year, (D) Low-intensity, continue fighting throughout rest of year. \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n===============================================\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\nThis question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 400 Palestinian deaths in 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:50.481Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How high will the U.S.' total dependency ratio be in 2039?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7432/united-states-future-age-structure/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The total dependency ratio is an important metric characterizing the age structure of a country. In simplest terms, it represents the number of unproductive or dependent individuals divided by the number productive individuals and can summarize demographic pressures i. e. economic growth prospects.\nEvery 5 years the [U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs](https://www.un.org/en/desa/about-us), Population Division (hereinafter referred to as DESA) publishes the [World Population Prospects](https://web.archive.org/web/20210704205636/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm-fer-2020-10-session_ii_b_unpd_2020_wpp2021-adolescentfertility.pdf) report including a [comprehensive dataset](https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/) of \"235 countries/areas and 67 indicators\".\nDifferent age cohorts can be included in the dependent group. Here individuals aged 0-19 years and over 65 years are chosen as such. The total dependency ratio (TDR) can be calculated as follows:\nHow high will U.S. total dependency ratio be in 2039?\nThe question resolves as the (herein defined) total dependency ratio in % reported by DESA in the 2039 \"World Population Prospects\" report.\nIf DESA or an authoritative UN source does not publish this data, Metaculus Admins may find an alternative source of data at their discretion.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:30:55.743Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2039-06-01T19:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-12-31T20:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&amp;KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:01.032Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 338,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:06.371Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n--- \nThe US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).\n--- \nAny year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.\nDefine the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.\nWe divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .\nWhat will be this depression's relative severity ?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:11.573Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 150,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/) \nStarlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.\nWill starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?\nThis will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:16.981Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-02-17T21:15:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-03-17T20:15:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US and Russia have a complicated military history, which came to a head just recently in 2020 through a small skirmish between US and Russian forces in Syria.\n\"While U.S. military and Russian forces have come in contact at checkpoints and along highway M4 in Syria throughout 2020, on Aug. 17 U.S. and Syrian Democratic Forces came under small arms fire after passing through a checkpoint near Tal al-Zahab, Syria. The U.S. and SDF had permission from the pro-Syrian regime forces manning the checkpoint, but then began to take fire from unidentified forces nearby. The U.S. and SDF returned fire and did not suffer any casualties. [U.S. officials said the small arms fire likely came from Syrian and Russian forces.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/pentagon-sending-troops-syria-after-clashes-between-u-s-russian-n1240319)\"\nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Russian forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:27.593Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7374/us-gdp-growth-q3-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nWhat will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q4 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:32.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T01:35:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-29T01:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7116/-virginia-pop-with-1-vaccine-dose-on-1-aug/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. \nAs of 27 April, [43.2%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) of Virginia's total population of 8.5M has been vaccinated with at least one dose.\nWhat will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure displayed on 1 August 2021 on the VDH [COVID-19 Vaccine Summary](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) dashboard.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:38.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 344,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the 10,000th human reach space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:43.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 229,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the many areas in which automation is steadily advancing is in weapons systems. Advances in machine learning systems that can parse photos and video, recognize faces, maneuver in complex 3-dimensional spaces, etc., can in principle allow new weapons systems that operate largely or wholly without human guidance.\nAs described [here](http://spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/military-robots/do-we-want-robot-warriors-to-decide-who-lives-or-dies), such weapons raise a number of both strategic and ethical questions involving the threshold of conflict, arms races, and who (or what) chooses to take human lives. Several campaigns have arisen calling for an international ban on lethal autonomous weapons.\nOne major concern raised by such campaigns, articulated for example in this [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/), is that an arms race in autonomous weapons could lead to cheap, widely available, highly effective weapons that could be used for political purposes including suppression of dissent or assassinations. For example, a swarm of tiny drones with facial recognition systems could seek out particular individuals (or groups) and kill them with toxins or small close-range explosives. \nWill a credible media report indicate that an autonomous weapon system has been used to kill a political figure by start of 2025? \nPositive resolution requires that: \n--- \nthe figure killed is in a leadership role of a political group – either a government or other organization built around political ends, and\n--- \nthe target is identified by the autonomous system itself, according to some criteria, rather than by other means of surveillance (which may be used to localize the target but not select the target out of, for example, nearby people), and\n--- \nno other \"unintended\" people are significantly harmed in the attack.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:48.914Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-15T21:22:57Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.\nThis question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? \nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:31:55.083Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 251,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=total&amp;yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nWill the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock) falls below $150M/year. The [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock) database will be checked on 2031-06-01 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.\nYearly totals for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:00.763Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-04-22T23:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate &gt; 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:06.217Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 237,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Continental European synchronous area](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe) is the largest interconnected power grid in the world, with hundreds of millions of customers. Transmission system operators who operate it are members in a Continental Europe regional group in the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, [ENTSO-E](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/inside-entsoe/objectives/) [1]. ENTSO-E also includes TSOs operating other related synchronous areas, but they are not covered by this question.\nOn January 8, 2021, ENTSO-E reported a system split in Continental Area, which was later classified as an [extensive incident](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/02/26/acer-and-entso-e-investigate-the-8-january-electricity-system-separation/). It was reported as a close call to a \"massive blackout\" in Europe by some ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-27/green-shift-brings-blackout-risk-to-world-s-biggest-power-grid)).\nPrevious time there was a blackout of massive scale in Europe was the [2006 European blackout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout), where 15+ m clients lost power for about 2 hours.\nThere also has been notable [wide-scale blackouts in Europe and elsewhere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_major_power_outages), most recently in [Texas, 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis)\nIn 2003, [there was a blackout affecting 56+m people in Italy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Italy_blackout).\nIn 2015, [there was a large blackout in Turkey](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-power-idUSKBN0MR0S420150331), causing split from CE [pdf](https://eepublicdownloads.entsoe.eu/clean-documents/SOC%20documents/Regional_Groups_Continental_Europe/20150921_Black_Out_Report_v10_w.pdf)\n[1] For more reading, see ENTSO-E [news](https://www.entsoe.eu/news/2021/01/15/system-separation-in-the-continental-europe-synchronous-area-on-8-january-2021-update/), [annual report](https://annualreport2019.entsoe.eu/) and [statistical factsheets](https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/statistics-and-data/#statistical-factsheet)\nWill there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (&gt; 10 m people affected for more than &gt; 1 hour in several countries) before 2023?\nPositive resolution if there is a blackout in more than one country in Continental European Area, affecting total of more than 10 million people for more than 1 hour before 2023-01-01 in relevant timezones.\nAccording to ENTSO-E, [Regional Group](https://www.entsoe.eu/about/system-operations/) for Continental synchronous area currently includes Austria, Albania, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark (West), France, Republic of North Macedonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Luxemburg, Montenegro, Nederland, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey (observer member).\nAppropriate evidence for resolution criteria having been met include news reports by at least two news agencies such as Reuters, AFP, and AP, preferably supported by later report(s) by ENTSOE [https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/](https://www.entsoe.eu/news-events/news/). To resolve ambiguities about details, reports from news agencies or national broadcasters from affected countries may also be included.\nI did not find any standard definition for massive blackout. Because the context is predisposed to cascading power outages in several countries in the area, this question requires threshold of affecting more than one country, more than 10 million people, and for over 1 hour.\nFor example, the 2003 Italy blackout is a borderline case but would resolve yes, as a part of Geneva canton in Switzerland was affected. Turkey 2015 would not, as it affected people in only one country.\nIf there are radical changes in the ENTSO-E Continental Europe area membership that would otherwise render question ambiguous, one can use for resolution any synchronous grid involving more than 50% of the currently participating countries. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:11.468Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-15T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:16.800Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 125,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:22.128Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). \nThe state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months.\n---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) \n---[U.S. poverty jumps the most in 60 years](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poverty-8-million-americans-june-november/) \n---[U.S. Incomes Surged, Poverty Fell to 60-Year Low Before Virus](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-median-household-income-jumped-6-8-in-2019-poverty-fell) \n---[U.S. Poverty Hit a Record Low Before the Pandemic Recession](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/15/business/economy/poverty-record-low-prior-to-pandemic.html) \nWill US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?\nThis question will resolve positively if the percentage of people below the poverty line as described [here](http://povertymeasurement.org/covid-19-poverty-dashboard/) is higher in November 2021 than for November 2020. When consulting the graph, the following settings will be used:\n---Income Measure: \"Percent Below 100% of Federal Poverty Line\" \n---Sample: \"All Individuals\" \nThe value for November 2020 was 11.7%. This question will resolve positively if the same value for November 2021 is above 11.7% and will otherwise resolve negatively.\nIf the data is not available from this source, the question will resolve ambiguously.\nNovember was the most recent data available at the time of writing for the Future Perfect article and so this will be the proxy for \"late 2021\". \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:27.348Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-20T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014 Ukraine reacted by cutting off [nearly 90%](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin) of the region's fresh water. Given the geopolitical importance of Crimea and the [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) this situation seems intolarable for Russia. Recently [Russian troops amassed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778) near the Ukrainian border, potentially indicating a coming conflict. Reactions by NATO and the US specifically indicate a [credible](https://www.dw.com/en/us-asks-russia-to-explain-ukrainian-border-provocations/a-57105593) threat to the Ukrainian territory.\nWill Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any formal annexations on behalf of the Russian Federation are represented within their [official constitution](http://kremlin.ru/acts/constitution) ([English source](http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-01.htm)), specifically, under '[Chapter 3, Federated device](http://kremlin.ru/acts/constitution/item#chapter3)' by 12:00AM January 1, 2022 Moscow Standard Time (GMT+3).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:32.914Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 165,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7163/variant-of-high-consequence-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Multiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020.\nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html): variants of interest, variants of concern, and variants of high consequence.\n---Variant of interest (VOI): “variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding, reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination, reduced efficacy of treatments, potential diagnostic impact, or predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are three VOIs: B.1.526, B.1.525, and P.2. \n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1, B.1.427, and B.1.429. \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 30 April, there are no VOHCs. \nA VOHC, in addition to having attributes of a VOC, might cause the following:\n---demonstrated failure of diagnostics \n---significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, high number of vaccine breakthrough cases, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease \n---significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics \n---more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations \nOn what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?\nThis question will resolve as the date that a SARS-CoV-2 variant is categorized under the “Variant of High Consequence” section on the CDC’s [SARS-CoV-2 Variant Classifications and Definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html) page.\nIf no variant is classified as a VOHC before 1 January 2025, then this resolves as &gt; 31 December 2024.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:38.428Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-05T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-18T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the price of Bitcoin first drop below $6481, 10% of the all-time high value?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7469/bitcoin-price-drop-below-6481/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bitcoin is the oldest cryptocurrency. After an [all time high of 64 805 USD](https://athcoinindex.com/coin/bitcoin), the price has hovered around 35 000 USD for the last few months. Many speculations and allegations surround it, from Bitcoin [becoming the world's reserve currency](https://www.americanexpress.com/us/foreign-exchange/articles/is-global-digital-reserve-currency-on-horizon/) to [it being a Ponzi scheme](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/bitcoin-a-gimmick-and-resembles-a-ponzi-scheme-black-swan-author-.html).\nWhen will the price of Bitcoin first drop below 6481$, 10% of the all time high value?\nThe question resolves as the day that Kraken reports the [24 hour low](https://www.kraken.com/prices/btc-bitcoin-price-chart/usd-us-dollar?interval=24h) as a value lower than 6481.0 USD.\nIf Kraken is down, any of the following sources may be used as a substitute:\n[coinbase.com](http://coinbase.com)\n[bitfinex.com](http://bitfinex.com)\n[binance.com](http://binance.com)\nMetaculus Admins may, at their discretion, use an alternative source if none of the above are credible.\nThe date will be decided according to GMT. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:44.122Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-10T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T10:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T10:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Huobi is a cryptocurrency exchange. In August 2018 it became a publicly listed Hong Kong company.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &amp;c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:32:55.187Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [meal replacement](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Meal_replacement) is\na drink, bar, soup, etc. intended as a substitute for a solid food meal, usually with controlled quantities of calories and nutrients.\nMeal replacements may be consumed instead of traditional foodstuffs for several reasons, like dietary restrictions, price, and convenience.\nA class of meal replacements claiming to be nutritionally complete has gained popularity over the last decade. They are consumed as shakes and sold either in powder form or pre-mixed with water. Prime examples include [Soylent](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Soylent_(meal_replacement)) and [Huel](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Huel). A more comprehensive list can be found on [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/).\nDue to their novelty, it is unclear whether they're in fact nutritionally complete, as there could be unknown unknowns in human nutrition. Moreover, no empirical studies have established the safety of using them as one's main or sole food source over the long-term.\nWill Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if, before 2030/1/1, the FDA or the EFSA do any of the following:\n1-- \nIssuing official guidelines stating that a healthy diet should not rely on meal replacements of this kind alone. It should be clear from the phrasing that they're referring to Soylent-like products specifically, i.e. products consumed as shakes and claiming to be nutritionally complete.\n2-- \nBanning an ingredient or manufacturing procedure currently used by any of the products listed in the fine print.\nList of products, taken from [blendrunner.com](https://www.blendrunner.com/):\n---Soylent Powder/Drink \n---Huel Powder/Ready-to-drink \n---Queal Steady \n---Jimmy Joy's Plenny Shake/Drink \n---ManaPowder/ManaDrink \n---Saturo Powder/Drink \nIf additional products are listed by [blendrunner.com](http://blendrunner.com) in this category, they will not be considered for the purposes of this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:00.772Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-11-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7117/when-will-75-virginians-have-1-vaccine-dose/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old.\nAs of 27 April, [43.2%](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) of Virginia's total population of 8.5M has been vaccinated with at least one dose.\nWhen will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the date when the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure displayed on the VDH [COVID-19 Vaccine Summary](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-summary/) dashboard reaches 75%. \nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2023, it resolves as &gt; 31 July 2023.\nThis question retroactively closes to when the \"% of the population vaccinated with at least one dose\" figure reaches 70%.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:06.172Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 245,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-31T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-07-31T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\n---Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008. \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n===============================================\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\nThis question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:11.637Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 68,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:17.170Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 375,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "BitMEX is a cryptocurrency exchange and derivative trading platform.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &amp;c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:23.172Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:28.559Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 217,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Freedom on the Net [report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-net/2020/pandemics-digital-shadow) is an annual report on internet freedom worldwide, produced by Freedom House. It tracks changes in internet regulation across 65 countries. As of the 2020 edition, it claimed that freedom had been on the decline (operationalised as more countries' scores decreasing than increasing) for ten years in a row, with 26 countries' scores worsening and 22 improving in 2020. This question asks if this pattern of decline will persist for the next five years.\nWill Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if for each year until 2025, inclusive, Freedom House reports more countries with a decrease in their internet freedom scores than with an increase.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:33.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?\nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThis question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:\n---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:39.540Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-12-20..latest&amp;country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&amp;region=World&amp;vaccinationsMetric=true&amp;interval=total&amp;smoothing=0&amp;pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&amp;pickerSort=desc).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:44.693Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 130,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently comes from [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/), a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder [Dustin Moskovitz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Moskovitz) and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$21.9bn](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=1d9ff1161dd3) as of June 2021. They donated $271 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) and $298 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their grants database. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose total grants for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:33:55.210Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:00.556Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 68,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T02:15:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:06.693Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 243,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In September 2020, Governor Newsom announced in an [executive order](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) that by 2035 all new passenger cars and trucks (which do not include medium or heavy duty vehicles) sold in California will need to be zero-emission vehicles. \nGovernor Brown, who in 2012 implemented the executive order for the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, defined a [ZEV](https://www.transportpolicy.net/standard/california-zev/) in 2013 as:\n“including hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which include both pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).”\nThe [California Governor’s office](https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/) writes as of September 23, 2020 that:\n“The transportation sector is responsible for more than half of all of California’s carbon pollution, 80 percent of smog-forming pollution and 95 percent of toxic diesel emissions – all while communities in the Los Angeles Basin and Central Valley see some of the dirtiest and most toxic air in the country.”\n[13 other American states](https://rhg.com/research/states-zero-emission-vehicles/#:~:text=Thirteen%20states%E2%80%94New%20York%2C%20Massachusetts,of%20the%20Clean%20Air%20Act) have agreed to follow California’s plans for reducing emissions by adopting their GHG standards and ZEV program under Act 177. It is possible that they might also join California in banning the sales of ICE powered cars in an effort to fight climate change. \nHowever, there are [many complaints](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/us/newsom-climate-plan.html) about this future transition and the threat it could bring to workers in auto manufacturing sectors, as well as other supply chain members such as companies providing fossil fuels. There are also concerns about the supporting charging infrastructure needed to accommodate such a shift, and if it would be practically feasible. \nThis is a key issue in the widespread battle between economic security and stability and climate consciousness, and could lead the way in proving or negating the validity of the argument between the two.\nWill California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?\nResolution criteria for this question will be found through reliable media sources in California or nationally, or through the Office of the Governor in California. The [official document](https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-Climate.pdf) posted by the Governor’s Office outlines only the sales of new ZEV light duty passenger vehicles by 2035, and does not include the sale of used, non-ZEV passenger cars and trucks after 2035. If only certain counties are 100% in ZEV sales, then this question will resolve negatively as the executive order clearly states the goal of 100% ZEV sales as a state-wide plan. \nIf the definition of ZEV changes before 2035, or the executive order no longer is in place by 2035, then this question will resolve negatively. If all new sales by dealerships for light duty vehicles throughout the state are ZEV as defined by the ZEV program from 2012, then this question will resolve positively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:12.043Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:18:32Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T21:11:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T21:11:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:17.461Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The lower cloud layer of Venus (47.5–50.5 km) is [an exceptional target for exploration due to the favorable conditions for microbial life,](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783) including moderate temperatures and pressures (∼60°C and 1 atm), and the presence of micron-sized sulfuric acid aerosols.\nRecently, scientists have discovered [phosphine gas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphine) in [the atmosphere of Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Venus) that was earlier [proposed as a biosignature gas in exoplanet atmospheres](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1783).\nWill life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?\nThe question will resolve positive based on strong and conclusive evidence of an extraterrestrial life on Venus. We will apply here the Sagan standard \"extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence\" therefore the discovery must be beyond any reasonable doubt.\nThe question will resolve negative if no evidence of life on Venus is found or the evidence remains inconclusive.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/) \n---[Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/) \n---[If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:22.912Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 254,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. However, before cultivated meat can come to market, a regulatory framework must be in place. \nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/):\nIn March [2019], the USDA and FDA released a formal agreement outlining regulatory roles that leverage each agency’s expertise—the FDA will oversee the earlier stages of cultivated meat production, and the USDA will oversee the later stages.\nVox's Kelsey Piper [goes on to explain](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian):\nBasically, regulation of meat involves both agencies — the USDA overlooking food processing, labeling, and distribution, and the FDA conducting inspections and safety checks — and the regulation of cell-based meat will, too. This agreement outlines which problems are the jurisdiction of which agency, so they can develop further guidelines without stepping on each others’ toes.\nWhen will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US?\nThis question resolves as the first date when at least 5 separate cultivated meat products are approved by federal regulators for commercial sale. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires regulatory approval but it does not require the relevant products be for sale\n--- \nPositive resolution does not require all the relevant products to be labelled as cell-based meat\n--- \nSeparate cultivated meat products are those belonging to different product lines (i.e. are sold under different brand names), but may be produced by the same company. For example XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.0\" and XYZ's \"clean chicken nuggets V1.1\" are considered the same product for the purpose of this question\n--- \nIn case this question does not resolve prior to 2035-12-31, this question resolves as \"&gt;2035-12-31\"\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:28.224Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-04-22T23:23:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:24:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:33.624Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 193,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy &gt;70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:39.880Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 558,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:45.160Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 293,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "President Joe Biden of the United States has announced plans to forgive at least $10,000 in federal student loan debt per person. Some Democrats have called for $50,000 to be forgiven per person. He has asked for this to be done through Congress, but more recently he has also been considering directly taking executive action for loan cancellation. On April 1, he requested Education Secretary Miguel Cardona to write a memo exploring how much student debt the president is legally able to forgive.\nAs for the timeline of when student loan forgiveness may happen, CNBC's [\"$10,000 student loan forgiveness: Can Biden eliminate the debt?\" (May 1, 2021)](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/30/student-loan-forgiveness-may-be-on-the-way-what-to-do-in-the-meantime-.html) writes:\nIf Biden chooses to cancel the debt through executive action, in theory borrowers could see their balances reduced or eliminated pretty quickly. But such a move may be met by court challenges, which could lead to delays.\nA clearer picture may soon emerge.\n“If Biden decides he can do it via executive order, I expect we’ll hear about it by June or July,” said Betsy Mayotte, president of The Institute of Student Loan Advisors.\nIf the White House opts to leave student loan forgiveness to Congress, Democrats would likely use the budget reconciliation process to get it done.\nThat’s because that process allows them to pass legislation with a simple majority, which is all they have. Other bills typically must garner 60 votes to advance, thanks to Senate procedural rules. Republicans are largely hostile toward the idea of a student debt jubilee.\nThe next budget reconciliation process will likely be in the fall.\nExpert opinions on whether loan forgiveness will hapepn ([Time, April 29, 2021](https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-predictions/)):\n“A blanket $10,000 in student loan forgiveness is good for individuals, but it’s bad policy unless they do something to fix the system,” says Robert Farrington, CEO and founder of The College Investor. “I personally don’t think anything will pass.”\n“I would like to see a higher education reform package if there is student loan forgiveness,” Farrington says. “If Biden tries to do it by executive order, I would not expect it happening right away. It’ll probably get tied up with lawsuits and litigation. However, if Congress manages to pass a bill that allows student loan forgiveness sometime this summer, then I think it would happen right away.”\n“I think the $10,000 in forgiveness is likely, but I’m cautious about anything more than that,” says Laurel Taylor, CEO and founder of [FutureFuel.io](http://FutureFuel.io). \nWill the US forgive $10,000 of federal debt per student before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2024, a presidential executive order is signed or a Congressional bill is signed into law (or other legal means are used) that cancels at least $10,000 of US federal student loan debt for each person, and there is credible evidence that at least one student actually has received the promised debt cancellation from the bill or executive order before January 1, 2024.\nThe debt cancellation should apply to the vast majority of applicable people. There may be restrictions on who is eligible for loan forgiveness of $10,000, but these restrictions must not withhold debt cancellation from more than 10% of American citizens at least 21 years old with at least $1,000 of federal student debt. If it is unclear whether the restrictions are more strict or less strict than this, the moderators can use their discretion as to whether loan forgiveness applies to the vast majority of applicable people.\nIf the conditions above are not met, the question resolves negatively. For example, if the bill or executive order is declared unconstitutional before any student receives debt forgiveness, the question resolves negatively.\nRelated question: [https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/fede…](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:50.601Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. \nQuestions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea. \nWill there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024?\nThe below are criteria for positive resolution:\n--- \nA gun is used if it is fired. An explosive is used if it is detonated. Guns do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as tasers, rubber bullet guns, or bean bag guns. Similarly, explosives do not include weapons that are designed to be less than lethal such as flash bangs.\n--- \nThere is at least one death as a result of the clash. The death need not be caused by the explosive or gunfire.\n--- \nThe military clash can take place in any place or location as long as it involves identifiable American and Chinese forces. \n--- \nThe conflict must occur on or before 2023-12-31 UTC.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:34:55.948Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-01T21:35:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T22:35:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:01.218Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:06.540Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 171,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, the BMJ's [treatment algorithm](https://bestpractice.bmj.com/topics/en-gb/3000201/treatment-algorithm) for COVID-19 recommends administering Vitamin D to patients with coronavirus.\nThe BMJ's treatment algorithm has different procedures for mild, moderate, severe, and critical. A recommendation to use Vitamin D for any one of these is sufficient for positive resolution.\n\"1st line\", and \"Plus\" count as a recommendation. \"Consider\" does not.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:11.847Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 247,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T20:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-29T20:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:17.105Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 709,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. \nHow many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:22.416Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:27.757Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 460,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves positive if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:32.964Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 261,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:38.238Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 240,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7364/us-michigan-csi-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.\n“Respondents are polled to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.\nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:43.544Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-08T01:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-22T01:19:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.\nA promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)\nThere are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.\nNonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.\nWhen will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? \nThe organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:48.749Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:53.919Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 261,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, the threshold for a 5-year mandatory minimum sentence for possession of crack cocaine is 28g, [a factor of 18](https://www.vox.com/2015/8/5/9097307/mandatory-minimums-fair-sentencing-act) smaller than the 500g for powder cocaine, a figure given by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010. This ratio is down from the 100:1 disparity from the [Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Drug_Abuse_Act_of_1986).\nThis sentencing disparity has been criticised [as being racially motivated](https://www.aclu.org/other/cracks-system-20-years-unjust-federal-crack-cocaine-law); crack cocaine and powder cocaine are pharmacologically similar, though crack cocaine is more commonly used by African Americans and powder cocaine is more commonly used by whites.\nJoe Biden [has claimed](https://joebiden.com/justice/) he plans to end this federal sentencing disparity.\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, will the amount in possession required to receive a federal drug trafficking penalty for possession of cocaine base be equal to the amount for cocaine?\nResolution will be by the text of [21 USC § 841](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/21/841), unless a different federal law becomes applicable to this situation.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:35:59.171Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Binance is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. As of April 2021, Binance was the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world in terms of the trading volume.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &amp;c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:04.379Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:\nThe element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.\nSilverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that \"face supply limitations in the coming years.\" Those considered by the ACS \"under serious threat\" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.\nIt sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/22/energy_economics_coal/) from The Register, for instance, maintains that the galium shortage is a nothingburger: \nWe mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about. \nAs a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following \"under serious threat\" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:09.933Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 204,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[US-Russia relations have been strained](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-russia/) and tested through much of the 20th and 21st centuries. [Tensions have often been high even after the Cold War ended](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-04-06/us-russian-relations-will-only-get-worse), due to incidents such as expansions of NATO, the US invasion of Iraq and airstrikes in Libya, and Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and Georgia and interference in Western institutions like NATO, the EU, and the US Presidential Elections. \n\"Any sustained improvement of relations between the United States and Russia beyond progress on arms control (such as the recent extension of the New START treaty) would require one of two concessions: either the United States shelves its foundational support for democracy and formally recognizes a Russian-privileged sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union or the Russian president decides his interests are not threatened by greater democracy in the region or by having fully sovereign neighbors. Neither is likely to materialize in the near future.\"\nWill there be a US-Russia war by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if there's a war between the US and Russia by 2050. For the purposes of this question, a US-Russia war is defined as the US and Russia collectively suffering [at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:15.299Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 62,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T23:58:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:20.589Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 143,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the synthesis of neptunium in 1940, we have been continually expanding the periodic table by creating new elements. Regrettably, as atoms have become bigger, they also have become less stable, the last few elements to be created having a half-life of less than a second.\nYet it is theorized that at some point, stability of new elements might start increasing again, creating an [island of stability]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability). There are certain \"magic numbers\" of protons that offer the chance of higher stability; 114, 120 and 126 are magic numbers. We have yet to reach elements 120 and 126 and there might still be more stable isotopes of element 114 that have not yet been created.\nIt is asked:\nWill we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050? \nIn order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:26.466Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 212,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-02-26T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances:\n--- \nwhen requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)),\n--- \nto address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law ([§ 252](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/252)),\n--- \nor to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of constitutionally secured rights, and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights ([§ 253](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/253)).\nThe Act was first used by 1808 by Thomas Jefferson. It has been used at least [23 more times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#Invocations_of_the_act), most recently in 1992 by George H. W. Bush [in response to the 1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots#Day_3_–_Friday,_May_1).\nRecent events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, protests by both left-leaning and right-leaning movements, and the Capitol Hill attack, have raised the possibility of the Insurrection Act being invoked again. This question asks:\nWill the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that the Insurrection Act has been invoked in the United States prior to 1 January 2025. No additional criteria need be met for this question to resolve positive.\nThis question will close retroactively to two days prior to the invocation of the Act should the Act be invoked. If the exact time of the invocation cannot be determined, the time of the first credible report will be used instead.\n\nRelated questions\n-----------------\n\n---[Second US civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/) \n---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/) \nIf positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:31.758Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7048/2022-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the Good Food Institute's [2020 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), since 1980, U.S. plant-based food companies and their investors have generated more than $21.4 billion through exits. In 2019 alone, $1.27 billion was generated through IPOs and subsequent public offerings of new shares. Mergers, acquisitions, and buyouts generated the rest.\nIn 2019, an estimated $1.27 billion was generated through exists. The majority of this was generated in Beyond Meat IPO, which sold over $760 million in shares to the public through an IPO and subsequent offering.\nHow much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of funds raised by IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions by U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based food companies in 2022. \nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: include mergers, acquisitions, public offerings, and buyouts. The resolution procedure will mirror the approach taken in their report as closely as possible.\nThis question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data sources, such as Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute. \nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based food are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a cultivated meat company, its primary focus must be alternative proteins.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:37.400Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 72,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:40:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:40:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7122/vaccination-rate-ratios-aapi-virginians/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Disparities in COVID-19 outcomes have affected many populations in Virginia and the nation. To ameliorate these disparities, Virginia [has prioritized](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/diversity/equity-leadership-taskforce/) [health equity](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/health-equity/office-of-health-equity/covid-19-health-equity-guidebook/) in its response, including its vaccination efforts. Nevertheless, systemic discrimination and historical injustice is challenging to overcome.\nThe Virginia Department of Health [reports](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/03/08/covid-19-disparities-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-virginia/) COVID-19 case, hospitalization, death and vaccination rates for each racial/ethnic group were compared to the White group rate in the form of a rate ratio. For example, if the Black group rate was 2 and the White group rate was 1, then the rate ratio would be 2 and would mean that the Black group rate was 2 times higher than that of the White group.\nWhat will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on the July data posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/) or [dashboard](https://public.tableau.com/profile/vdh.omhhe#!/vizhome/DisparityRatios/Cumulative).\nIf the rate ratio exceeds 2, this will resolve as &gt; 2.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:42.668Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 194,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:47.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment. \nWith thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).\nITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases. \nThe project aims to:\n--- \nMomentarily produce a fusion plasma with thermal power ten times greater than the injected thermal power (a [Q value](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor) of 10).\n--- \nProduce a steady-state plasma with a Q value greater than 5. (Q = 1 is scientific breakeven)\nCurrently, it aims to produce its first [\"small star\" inside the ITER Tokamak in November 2025](https://www.iter.org/mag/9/65).\nBy the end of 2025, will ITER announce to have successfully discharged a plasma pulse of at least 5 kiloampere?\nFor the purpose of this question a lower threshold of 5kA is included to exclude insignificant results counting toward positive resolution. For reference, a Tokamak with a major plasma-radius of 0.9 m (much smaller than the ITER's 6.2m radius), [achieved a 10kA first plasma discharge pulse in 2017](https://www.iter.org/newsline/-/2751).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:53.540Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 174,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Shapson-Coe et al.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.29.446289v1.full.pdf), published May 30th, 2021,\nWe acquired a rapidly preserved human surgical sample from the temporal lobe of the cerebral cortex. We stained a 1 mm3 volume with heavy metals, embedded it in resin, cut more than 5000 slices at ~30 nm and imaged these sections using a high-speed multibeam scanning electron microscope. We used computational methods to render the three-dimensional structure of 50,000 cells, hundreds of millions of neurites and 130 million synaptic connections. The 1.4 petabyte electron microscopy volume, the segmented cells, cell parts, blood vessels, myelin, inhibitory and excitatory synapses, and 100 manually proofread cells are [available to peruse online](https://h01-dot-neuroglancer-demo.appspot.com/). [...]\nThis improvement was in large part due to two noteworthy advances: fast imaging owing to multibeam scanning electron microscopy (Eberle et al. 2015) and the profound effect of AI on image processing and analysis (Januszewski et al. 2018). The rapid improvements over the past few years (Briggman, Helmstaedter, and Denk 2011; Bock et al. 2011; Helmstaedter et al. 2013; Takemura et al. 2013; Lee et al. 2016; Motta et al. 2019; Scheffer et al. 2020; Dorkenwald et al. 2020; Yin et al. 2020; Gour et al. 2021) argues that analyzing volumes that are even three orders of magnitude larger, such as an exascale whole mouse brain connectome, will likely be in reach within a decade (Abbott et al. 2020). [Emphasis added]\nSee also this [accompanying blog post from the Google AI Blog](https://ai.googleblog.com/2021/06/a-browsable-petascale-reconstruction-of.html).\nWill a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?\nThis question resolves positively, if before June 1st 2031, a reliable paper, blog post, or some other article appears in the literature indicating that researchers had digitally mapped a section of an animal connectome using some high-resolution scanning technology, such by [serial section electron microscopy](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jmi.122240), and the size of that map meets or exceeds one exabyte. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nExtra junk information, such as a researcher adding 999 petabytes of zeros at the end of their file (as unlikely as this may be), cannot count towards resolution, and admins will use their discretion in this regard. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:36:58.942Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-02-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [\"The Squad\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.\nAmericans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.\nWill AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?\nThis question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for any of the presidential elections due to take place in 2024, 2028, or 2032. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.\nIn the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the \"Democratic Nominee\" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:04.166Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [National Popular Vote Interstate Compact](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact) is a an agreement among states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate with the highest popular vote, conditional on enough states agreeing that the total electoral vote count would secure a majority in the electoral college. In effect, the agreement means that if enough states sign on, the popular vote will determine the outcome of presidential elections. So far [states representing 196 electoral votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact#Adoption) have signed on, which is 73% of the way to the 270 required to obtain a majority in the Electoral College.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that states representing at least half of Electoral College votes have signed the NPVIC before 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:09.575Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 200,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:14.853Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 164,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7362/non-farm-payroll-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of August, which will be released in early September. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:20.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-02T01:15:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-11T01:15:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Church_(geneticist)):\nGeorge Church is an American geneticist, molecular engineer, and chemist. He is the Robert Winthrop Professor of Genetics at Harvard Medical School, Professor of Health Sciences and Technology at Harvard and MIT, and a founding member of the Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering.\nWill George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if George Church wins a Nobel Prize before 2035. Sharing a Nobel prize is sufficient for positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:25.262Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-02T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity &gt;53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that &gt;53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when &gt;80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:30.811Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 464,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:36.224Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 311,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:42.275Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 342,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for &lt; $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for &lt; $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:47.681Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7107/cost-to-deliver-1kg-to-mars-in-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2021, the Mars Perseverance Rover landed on Mars. With a weight of 1,025kg and a budget of $2.2 Billion dollars, this equates to a cost of $2.1M/kg.\nThe cost to deliver a payload to Mars is relevant to many questions, in particular [\"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)\nVarious estimates for future systems have been proposed. For example, in one presentation SpaceX claimed a [cost](https://handwiki.org/wiki/Unsolved:Space_elevator_economics) of $140/kg to the surface of Mars is achievable.\nHow much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075?\nWhat will be the lowest cost (in 2020 US Dollars/Kg) to deliver a payload to the surface of Mars from the surface of Earth?\nThis question will resolve to the cost (payload mass divided by mission budget) of the lowest-cost mission that successfully lands of the surface of Mars, from now until the end of 2075, according to credible media reporting. Or, if delivery of payloads to Mars is a commercially available service, on the lowest commercially available price prior to 2075.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:52.943Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On April 22, 2021, President Joe Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.\n[A statement from the White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/) writes:\nToday, President Biden will announce a new target for the United States to achieve a 50-52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution in 2030 – building on progress to-date and by positioning American workers and industry to tackle the climate crisis.\nAccording to the [Center for Climate and Energy Solutions](https://www.c2es.org/content/u-s-emissions/), net emissions in 2017 were 5,743 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalents, 12% lower than in 2005. Net emissions in 2020 were 21% below 2005 levels and 10.3% lower than 2019 levels, according to a preliminary report by [Rhodium Group](https://rhg.com/research/preliminary-us-emissions-2020/), but emission levels are expected to rise in 2021 as pandemic lockdown measures are reduced.\nWill US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there is any year between 2022 and 2030 (inclusive) in which the US levels of economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO₂ equivalents) is at least 50.00% lower than 2005 levels, according to a reliable source that is not heavily disputed by other reliable sources. The question resolves negatively if all reliable reports (that Metaculus users can find) say that the US net emissions in each year between 2022 and 2030 were greater than 50% of 2005 levels, and there is at least one reliable report about net emission levels in 2030. (If there is no report about net emission levels in 2030, we should wait for one rather than resolving this question ambiguously.)\nIf the US gains or loses territories between now and 2030, ideally only the net emissions from the current territories should be considered.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:37:58.599Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:04.429Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-02T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-02-18T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-07-01T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:09.948Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 350,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:15.369Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 455,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-29T08:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7465/trade-signal-tournament-prize-pool-2021-09-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Metaculus is running its (first?) [Trade Signal Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/trade-signal-tournament/), to attempt predicting a basket of economic indicators.\nOn top of that, we just elected a [Community Trader](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7330/) who will translate the tournament predictions into trades, so Metaculus can try and grow the prize pool from the initial $1500.\nHow big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30?\nIf the prize pool shrinks below $1000, Metaculus will make up the difference up to $1000. We are forecasting the prize pool before this shoring up.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:21.152Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7349/industrial-production-index-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:26.543Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-09T23:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-19T23:55:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:31.754Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:37.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2032-05-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK)\nCANZUK is an acronym for Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. \nIt's used for a proposed free movement alliance amongst those countries modeled upon what already exists between Australia and New Zealand. Citizens, especially labor, could then move nearly as freely among them as among the states in the US.\nThough the idea has been around for decades, Brexit has heightened UK interest in the concept as a replacement for the EU.\nWill a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Agreed Before 2029?\nThe question resolves positively if a free movement treaty (or treaties) including but not limited to Canada, New Zealand, Australia and the United Kingdom is adopted.\nFree Movement means that a citizen using only a passport from one participating country may (with few restrictions) move among, reside in and work in any of them.\nResolution needs only that the treaty be adopted by the deadline; it need not have taken effect.\nMovement restrictions regarding criminals and disease transmission don't matter as long as a passport from one country generally makes one eligible to work in any. See the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement (TTTA) as a model. Indeed, an expansion of the TTTA itself to include Canada and the UK would be a canonical positive resolution.\nIt doesn't matter if Scotland secedes from the UK. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:42.578Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-07T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7553/over-1000-us-covid-daily-deaths-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases — likely in large part because of the [more-transmissible](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf) Delta variant becoming [predominant](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/07/health/delta-variant-cdc.html). The extent to which this increase in cases will translate to a comparable increase in deaths is of interest given the [higher vaccination rate of older age groups](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nThe 7-day moving average of daily COVID-19 deaths [last exceeded 1000 on 13 March 2021](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths).\nWill the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 20 July 2021 and 1 January 2022 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is greater than 1000. The source will be CDC's official count of [COVID-19 deaths](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendsdeaths). Make sure the \"Daily Deaths\" view is selected.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:47.941Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-03T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nETA 2021-07-08: In case of human extinction, the question is to resolve ambiguously.\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:53.400Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T22:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2150-01-19T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:38:58.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 145,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:04.033Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 310,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:09.293Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 156,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Jannik Sinner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jannik_Sinner) is an Italian professional tennis player. He is current the youngest tennis player in the top 10 based on Tennis Abstract's [Elo rankings](http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html)\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Who will be the first man born in the 2000s to win a Slam?\". Sinner was picked out as being most likely to win. To operationalise this, we ask what his chances are.\nWill Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam?\nResolves positive if Jannik Sinner is the first male player born after the millennium to win a tennis Grand Slam. (One of Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon, US Open).\nResolves negative if a player other than Jannik Sinner born after the millennium wins a tennis Grand Slam before Sinner.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nThis question closes retroactively day before the beginning of the tournament which triggers resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:14.533Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:19.729Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 189,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7369/cpi-u-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:24.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-09T01:27:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-23T01:27:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7379/lowest-e-mini-sp-closing-value-in-september/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "An [E-mini](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emini.asp) is an electronically traded futures contract that is a fraction of the value of its corresponding futures contract. E-mini futures are predominately traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and typically correspond to large range of indices, including the US S&amp;P 500.\nAs defined by the Corporate Finance Institute, \n\"A [futures contract](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/e-mini-futures/), referred to as a futures, is a binding legal financial contract, or an agreement, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price, at a specified, pre-agreed date, in the future, between two parties who don’t necessarily know, or are involved in business with, each other.\"\nThese transactions allow the presence of smaller traders who could not necessarily afford the full sized contract. Because the E-minis are broken down into fractional parts for this type of trading, it [increases the flexibility of futures trading and the liquidity of the market](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/trading-investing/e-mini-futures/). \nThe recent boom of the stock market following the recession during the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed E-mini trading prices for the S&amp;P 500 futures contracts to their [highest level](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures) since its origination in 2008.\nWhat will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&amp;P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September?\nThis question resolves as the lowest closing value for the E-mini S&amp;P 500 Futures Continuous Contract in September. For this question, inter-daily values will not be counted.\nResolution will be sourced from [MarketWatch](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sp%20500%20futures) or other reliable financial reporting platforms.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:35.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-02T01:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-02T01:48:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7195/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nRelated Question:\n[US Employment of Ages 65+ in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/)\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of people (in millions) ages 65+ categorized as having been employed during some part of 2030. Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:41.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 17,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-02T06:26:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-03-02T06:26:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).\nWill substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?\nThis resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:46.688Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-30T17:33:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:34:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:51.962Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 360,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&amp;%2AVersion%2A=1&amp;%2Aentries%2A=0&amp;ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \"&gt;2041-01-01\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:39:57.245Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 295,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:02.738Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6933/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q3 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:08.374Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-10T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-30T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-16T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. On February 14th 2019, OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), which became famous within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.\nOn the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities.\nIf GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?\nThis question resolves on the date during which OpenAI staff publish a blog post, a paper, a video, or a document of any kind, describing GPT-4 or some performance results from GPT-4. In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\". If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nSee also these questions:\n[When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/)\n[Billions of params of GPT-4 if released](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:13.674Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:19.238Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1428,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:24.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-02T00:47:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-09T01:45:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7377/change-in-vix-by-5-after-nfp-numbers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the popular financial press, the VIX Index is often referred to as the \"fear gauge\". In reality, it is a quantitative assessment of expected stock market volatility over the next thirty day period, and is computed from S&amp;P 500 stock index option prices.\nTo rule-of-thumb accuracy, the numerical value of the VIX corresponds to the annualized one-sigma percentage change in the value of the S&amp;P 500 Index over the next month. \nTypically, the value of the VIX lies between 10 and 20, but it regularly spikes during times of market turmoil. During March 2020, it reached a closing peak of [82.69](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/) on the 16th. \nOne [popular indicator of expected volatility](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/non-farm-payroll-report.asp) is the Non-Farm Payroll number. \n\"The non-farm payroll report causes one of the consistently largest rate movements of any news announcement in the forex market. As a result, many analysts, traders, funds, investors, and speculators anticipate the NFP number and the directional movement it will cause. With so many different parties watching this report and interpreting it, even when the number comes in line with estimates, it can cause large rate swings.\"\nThese large rate swings show up regularly in the VIX Index on the day of and throughout the following week.\nWill the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point within 7 days the VIX increases or decreases more than 5 points above or below the closing day value of the VIX on the day prior to the release dates of either July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll values. \nIf after 7 days at closing the VIX has not changed more than 5 points from its closing day values the day prior to the release dates of the Non-Farm Payroll values, then this question resolves negatively.\nIntra-daily values do count towards positive resolution.\nResolution can be sourced from either YahooFinance! or MarketWatch.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.43000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:29.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-10T01:42:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-18T01:42:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:34.883Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 120,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7402/war-between-russia-and-the-us-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Another question in this tournament asks [Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/). This question asks more specifically when such a war will occur, if it does occur by 2050. Taken together, these questions can inform our views on: \n--- \nHow much people today should prioritize reducing risks from nuclear war and certain other issues (such as possible biotechnology developments)\n--- \nWhich interventions would be most effective (for example, specific diplomatic efforts in the near-term vs working more slowly towards more lasting policy changes)\nIf there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?\nThis question resolves as the year that the US and Russia enter into a war, meaning the first calendar year in which the US and Russia collectively suffer at least 1000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other, as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of Russia or between Russia and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution.\nIf there is no war before 2050 between the US and Russia, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:40.154Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T23:48:59.843000Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-07-22T21:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.\nA little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. \nIn terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.\nHowever, 500 years is a long time for a technological civilization, and if ours survives on this timescale, it could engineer the solar system in various ways and potentially invalidate the assumptions of this prediction. With that in mind:\nWill there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?\nFor the question to resolve positively, the calendar system used in evaluating the resolution must match the Gregorian calendar system used in the eclipse predictions; the eclipse must be of Sol by a Moon with at least 95% of its original structure by volume unaltered, and must be observable from Earth's surface, with \"Earth\" defined by our current Earth with at least 95% of its original structure by volume altered only by natural processes.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.040000000000000036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:45.632Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 368,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-01-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2522-06-26T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $26 million to the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\" in 2020 and $22 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:50.831Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:40:56.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 246,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7359/industrial-production-index-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:02.104Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-07T01:08:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-22T01:09:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:07.328Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 338,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Robocup Challenge",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Robocup Challenge](http://www.robocup.org/objective) was launched in the mid-1990s as a \"grand challenge\" in robotics. The stated goal of the challenge is:\nBy the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup. \nOn the road to this challenge, annual Robocup games are played; see [here](http://www.robocup.org/events/upcoming_events) for upcoming events.\nWill the Robocup challenge be met by 2050? \nPositive resolution requires announcement by the Robocup challenge organization that the challenge has been officially accomplished.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:12.693Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 315,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T23:45:01Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:45:08Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7119/vaccine-for-children-under-12-before-1-sept/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are currently three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines that have been [authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), and all three are currently being administered in Virginia: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and Janssen. As of late April, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is authorized for those 16+ years old, Moderna for 18+ years old, and Janssen for those 18+ years old. \nThere are currently no vaccines approved for use in children under 16, though on 9 April 2021 Pfizer [requested an amendment](https://cdn.pfizer.com/pfizercom/2021-04/EUA-12-15yo-Statement-9-April-2021.pdf?VersionId=Vg2h9d1M1XTo58jO8UIogPxXeLcn27cH) to its authorization to extend to the 12-15 year old age group. \nIn March 2021, Pfizer [announced it began testing its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 years](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal), with plans to expand to 2 to 5 years and then to 6 months to 2 years. Also in March 2021, Moderna [announced a trial in children 6 months to 12 years of age](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-first-participants-dosed-phase-23-study-0). In early April 2021, Janssen [announced it was testing its vaccine in the 12-17 age group](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-expands-phase-2a-clinical-trial-of-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-to-include-adolescents).\nWill at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of a [press announcement by the FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements) stating that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has been authorized for children under 12 years of age. For this to resolve positively, such an authorization should cover an age group of at least seven years — for instance, an authorization for 5-11 year olds (inclusive) would count but 9-11 year olds (inclusive) would not.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:17.949Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 271,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.\nThe fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.\nIn May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?\nOnly the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:23.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 134,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-31T09:59:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Why care\nEnergy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.\n[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.\" \nWhen will an organization first report a yearly profit?\nThis question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.\nFor a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.\nRelated questions\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q &gt;= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:28.451Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Serena Williams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serena_Williams) is widely considered the greatest Tennis player of all time. She has won 23 Grand Slams in her career. 1 short of Margaret Court's record.\nHowever, she is starting to get older turning 40 in 2021 and she's slipped away from the #1 ranking. She last won a slam in 2017, although she's reached 4 slam finals since then.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Last year, each of you said you expected Serena to win another major. Do you want to change your answer?\". The answer given was \"Probably not\" (ie probably she doesn't win another one).\nWill Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?\nThis question resolves positive if Serena Williams wins a grand slam after 2021-04-01.\nThis question resolve negative if Serena Williams stops playing Tennis before winning another grand slam.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:33.736Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recent [controversy over state election laws](https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-new-election-law-means-for-voters-and-officials-explainer-2021-3) has caused some Democrats to be concerned that Republicans intend to use their political power in state governments to distort future elections in their favor. One commentator [recently suggested](https://web.archive.org/web/20210329024002/https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1376161115244204037):\n\"If a Democrat wins a GOP-controlled swing state in 2024 … there’s a very good chance the victory isn’t certified\"\nElection certification is the process in which states [confirm the election results](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/11/13/how-election-certification-works-when-will-2020-be-certified/) and declare them to be the official results. Typically states set their own deadlines for election certification, which in 2020 [ranged from November 5th to December 8th for the presidential contest](https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020) (several states appear to have no deadline), but federal law provides a [\"safe harbor\" deadline](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/08/942288226/bidens-victory-cemented-as-states-reach-deadline-for-certifying-vote-tallies) by which states must formally certify their election results in order for the certified results to be federally recognized as governing the outcome. The \"safe harbor\" deadline is set by [3 U.S. Code § 5](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/5) and [3 U.S. Code § 7](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/3/7) which sets the safe harbor deadline as six days prior to the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December of the election year.\nIn the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?\nThe question will resolve positively if any state (or DC) does not certify their results by the \"safe harbor\" deadline. The \"safe harbor\" deadline for the 2024 presidential election will be December 10th.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:39.074Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-02T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-21T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&amp;T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:44.373Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:49.616Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 261,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-10-15T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-10-15T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "GB News is a new UK television channel which is being established by a politically conservative group of broadcasters. It will be a free-to-receive digital TV channel and the enterprise is backed by - among others - John Malone, owner of the Liberty Global empire. \nAndrew Neil, its chair, will [host a prime-time show](https://variety.com/2021/tv/global/gb-news-uk-right-wing-fox-news-andrew-neil-1234890375/). Other hires include Nick Ferrari, who is best known as a presenter on LBC, a spoken-word station. They have also hired Julia Hartley-Brewer and Dan Wootton - both from talkRADIO, another speech station. \nDespite being trailed as a [British Fox News](https://www.standard.co.uk/insider/gb-news-news-channel-andrew-neil-b900143.html), it will need to stick to the UK's strict impartiality rules and will be regulated by Ofcom, the telecoms regulator. \nThe market has not proved lucrative, especially compared to [the situation in the US](https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/tuesday-jan-26-scoreboard-fox-news-climbs-to-no-1-in-prime-time/469277/). \nSky News, perhaps the best model for GB News to emulate, has been broadcasting since 1989 and it managed to \"reach\" 24 per cent of British people over [a four-week spell](https://www.barb.co.uk/viewing-data/weekly-viewing-summary-new/). But even they only manage to pick up 1 per cent of the average daily minutes of viewing. \nWill GB News be broadcasting in 2025?\nGB News will be deemed to be broadcasting if a TV station with the brand of \"GB News\" airs more than six hours of content per day over the Freeview network beyond January 1 2025. \nThe ownership of the channel should not be deemed relevant. If the brand changes, it will deemed to exist - so long as the station continues to broadcast and so long as its name, as listed on the Freeview electronic programme guide (EPG), still has the words \"GB News\" in the channel title.\nThe authoritative version of the EPG will be the standard text-only version of the EPG accessible to British Freeview viewers by pressing the programme guide button. There is an [online version](https://www.freeview.co.uk/tv-guide) - which is the same, but it currently uses graphics in place of channel names, which might create ambiguity on the naming question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:41:54.973Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-20T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7456/countervalue-detonations-by-russia-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on Russia detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Russian-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Russia by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:00.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:05.561Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 197,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is \"Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur.\" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?\nWhat will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:10.736Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-27T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Android or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:15.945Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 164,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Global trade has increased from [27% of GWP in 1970 to 61% in 2008](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS). This has brought benefits such as [poverty alleviation](https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-role-of-trade-in-ending-poverty) and lower prices for consumers, but has also been targeted for deleterious effects on labour in developed countries, such as [suppression of wages](https://www.epi.org/press/globalization-lowered-wages-american-workers/). As such, trade has been a political point of consternation in many countries.\nPossibly because of that, trade as a percentage of GWP has not exceeded the peak value of 60.789%, though in 2011, 2012, and 2019, the the value of global trade exceeded 60% of GWP.\nThe past few years however have witnessed the signing of the [RCEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership) and [CPTPP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_and_Progressive_Agreement_for_Trans-Pacific_Partnership) trade agreements, the former being the biggest trade bloc in history.\nWill global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026?\nThis question resolves positive if trade as a percentage of GWP, [as published by the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), exceeds 61% between 2020 and 2025, inclusive; otherwise it resolves negative. Resolution would be ambiguous if the World Bank ceases to exist or publish this data and no alternate data source can be found.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:21.238Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:26.504Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-05T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with &gt;30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:31.972Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 152,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:38.596Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1209,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-08-01T09:32:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:35:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. &amp; Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:44.016Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 214,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, transaction prices on Ethereum limit what can be done. High transaction prices are largely driven by a maximum amount of transactions per second that can be processed which is over the month of May 2021 between 15 and 20. \nWith Polkadot being able to process well over 1000 transactions per second it's clearly possible for a smart contract platform to be able to process more transactions.\nEthereum plans to allow for more transactions with the adoption of Ethereum2.\nWhen will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second?\nThis prediction will resolve positively when [https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transa…](https://blockchair.com/ethereum/charts/transactions-per-second) shows Ethereum being able to handle 1000 or more transactions per second for 7 consecutive days.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:49.227Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:54.525Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 466,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:42:59.837Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 322,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:05.069Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7353/us-durable-goods-orders-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for July 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:10.381Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-22T00:15:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-01T00:15:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[George Hotz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Hotz), also known as GeoHot, is an American entrepreneur who runs the autonomous driving AI company [comma.ai](http://comma.ai).\nRecently GeoHot appeared to [announce the possibility](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Y97YY6yW1k) that he may start an AI training chip company designed to compete with NVidia.\nWill George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?\nThis question resolves if a company owned and or controlled by George Hotz releases a product intended to accelerate deep learning / machine learning by or before January 1st 2030 UTC. The product in question must be applicable to a variety of deep learning / AI training tasks, as current GPUs are--an accelerator which only works to process driving footage or some other highly constrained task and is capable of nothing else does not qualify.\nProduct release means the product is on sale and able to be purchased by end-users.\nThe product must offer a performance to price ratio no worse than half that of competing products as determined by at least two published benchmarks from credible tech media and the lowest out-the-door or to-the-door prices available to the general public. \nBeta or development hardware does not resolve.\nResolves negative if resolve date is reached without a qualifying product.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:15.672Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-03-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&amp;r=US&amp;IR=T). \nNatural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.\nIn 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).\nWill wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positive if the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2Y8jecV) reports that at least 10 million hectares of global tree cover was lost due to wildfires in any calendar year up to and including 2030. [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR) defines a wildfire as a large-scale forest loss resulting from the burning of forest vegetation with no visible human conversion or agricultural activity afterward.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:20.833Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:25.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-08T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-05T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7389/biden--trump-us-google-search-ratio-q3-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Throughout his campaigns and Presidency, Donald Trump commanded extraordinary public interest. As of summer 2021, Trump maintains an unusually large public profile as an ex-President, and is widely acknowledged as the single most influential figure for Republican party voters. His Google Trends results reflect this; since Biden's Inauguration Day, [Trump and Biden's average Google search volumes have kept pace.](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2021-01-20%202021-06-14&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F0cqt90)\nWhat will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?\nAfter September 30th 2022, Google Trends will be queried for the United States during the period July 1st 2022 to September 30th 2022 and the topics \"Joe Biden (46th U.S. president)\" and \"Donald Trump (45th U.S. president)\". This question will resolve as the ratio of Biden's to Trump's average interest scores over that period. For example, if this question had been asked for [Q3 2020](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2020-07-01%202020-09-30&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F0cqt90), it would have resolved as 11:33 or 0.3&#x305;.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:31.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-10T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-10-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:36.529Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.\nAs of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.\nThis question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on [this](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/) spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.\nIf the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:41.800Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 145,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:47.012Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 261,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory.\nMMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics.\nWill a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?\nThis question resolves 'Yes' if any Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences is awarded before 2041-01-01 when both of these are true:\nA. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core contributor to MMT OR is considered as one of the core contributors or founders of MMT according to at least one peer-reviewed review articles or book chapter on the topic.\nB. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves)\nThis question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is \"for\" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:52.319Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:43:57.591Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The president of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.\nAs of 2020, [44 individuals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) have held the presidency since the office was established in 1788; all have been male. \nThroughout most of its history, American politics has been dominated by political parties, and since 1853, all US presidents have been affiliated with either the [Democratic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States)) or [Republican](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States)) parties. \nThe Democratic Party has had one female nominee for president; [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) in [the 2016 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election) Additionally, the Democratic Party has had two female nominees for vice president: [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) in [the 1984 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_United_States_presidential_election) and [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) in [the 2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) As of December 2020, Harris is the vice president-elect, and is expected to be sworn in as vice president in January 2021. \nThe Republican Party has never had a female nominee for president, but has had one female nominee for vice president: [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) in [the 2008 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election).\nWill the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?\nFor a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.\nIf there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:02.774Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta. [A previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/) of this question asked if there would be a third wave, as judged by a measure of 100 deaths a day, and at the time of writing looks likely to resolve positive, with the community median at 80%.\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK reach 250 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 1750.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 1000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:07.966Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 104,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T20:10:28.230000Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[PHOSP](https://phosp.org/about/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:13.462Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Robert D Atkinson and Jason W Galbraith summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/687/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nIncreasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it. But the \"robots are killing our jobs\" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nThe United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. As a result, the workforce participation rate will fall below 60 percent and this time, automation and de-industrialization will keep it there at least through June 2025.\nWill the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:19.243Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)\nWill the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:24.397Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A nuclear detonation by a [non-state actor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-state_actor) could potentially have dire consequences either directly or via triggering other harmful actions by other actors. Non-state actors have never yet detonated nuclear weapons, but [there are conceivable scenarios in which they could](https://nonproliferation.org/understanding-nuclear-weapon-risks-non-state-actors-and-nuclear-weapons/): \nThe majority of nuclear security experts identify two primary scenarios involving nuclear weapons and non-state actors. The first scenario involves the acquisition of a nuclear device from the existing arsenals of nuclear-armed States by terrorists or other non-state actors. The second scenario envisions the construction of a crude nuclear bomb by non-state actors using special nuclear materials—highly enriched uranium (HEU) or plutonium (Pu). The actualization of each of these scenarios would be very difficult, and the probability of a successful theft and detonation of an actual nuclear weapon or manufacturing of an improvised device by non-state actors is considered to be low. Yet, this probability is not zero.\nWill a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2030, a nuclear detonation by a non-state actor causes at least one fatality in any country or area globally. \nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution. \nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nNeither [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion) will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:29.584Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T21:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 cases will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 155,195 new cases were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:34.846Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:40.024Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:45.204Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:50.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 197,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:44:55.923Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 347,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [LVCC Loop](https://www.lvloop.com/lvccloop) is a public transit projected created by The Boring Company using Tesla Motors vehicles in dedicated tunnels/roads. [Testing](https://www.torquenews.com/video/boring-company-start-tests-february-free-rides) of the system is scheduled to start in early 2021 with human drivers with testing using automated systems [planned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/) later on in 2021. Determination of autonomous operation will use criteria similar to this [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/).\nThe LVCC project allows self-driving vehicles to be demonstrated in a carefully controlled environment. This question will determine if such a feat is being replicated.\nWill TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop &lt;2030?\nThis question will resolve as yes if before 2030, The Boring Company page indicates two autonomous transit system projects completed outside the Las Vegas Metro area with more than 15 miles each of Tunnels. Each system must demonstrate carrying more than 1000 passengers per day and operate autonomously for over 30 days.\nOperation should be supported by press reports in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Washington Post or another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) posted to the discussion section below. If no such articles are posted, this question resolves as no.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:01.243Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-02T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-10-15T22:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-03-15T22:52:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:06.598Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 373,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the Woke index in US elite media top?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:11.795Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As launch costs fall, access to space has become much less expensive. According to the [Union of Concerned Scientists](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database), the number of satellites in Earth orbit is currently is projected to be 3,373 by the end of the year. When will the number of satellites in Earth orbit exceed 5,000?\nWhen will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000?\nThis question will close on the date that the UCSUSA publishes a database listing more than 5000 satellites in orbit which were launched before the present time.\nThe question will resolve to the day of the launch of the spacecraft which contains the 5001st satellite.\nIn the case that the [Union of Concerned Scientists website](https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database) ceases to publish its database, the question will be closed and will resolve ambiguously.\n--- \nSatellite launch times are UTC.\n--- \nThe UCSUSA database includes satellites which are predicted to launch, so it is necessary to specify that these launches must have actually occurred in order to be relevant.\n--- \nSatellites are counted by their number of design components, so a satellite which breaks apart in orbit only counts as one object unless the breakup was a maneuver planned at satellite launch. A booster stage which remains in orbit would \n--- \nSatellites must be artificial objects in Earth orbit. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:17.033Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T20:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:22.277Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The S&amp;P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&amp;P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&amp;P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:27.600Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 393,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:32.848Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-31T22:27:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7299/roman-space-telescope-launch-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Grace_Roman_Space_Telescope) (Roman Space Telescope, previously known as WFIRST) is an infrared space telescope currently under development by NASA. The telescope is planned (as of June 2021) to feature a 2.4 meter wide primary meter, the same size as that of the [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). The two major instruments planned for the Roman Space Telescope will be a camera with a field of view 100 times larger than Hubble's, and a coronagraph allowing the direct imaging of exoplanets a billion times fainter than their host star. Though the [FAQ](https://roman.gsfc.nasa.gov/faq.html) of the telescope's website claims \"Preparations are on track for a mid-2020s launch\", previous large NASA astronomy missions such as Hubble and [JWST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) have seen delays of several years.\nWhen will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched?\nIn line with the [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/) on JWST, this resolves when the Roman Space Telescope is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the Roman Space Telescope reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the Kármán line) through any other mean. The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that the Roman Space Telescope is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any space telescope ever called the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope or WFIRST that has a 2.4 meter wide primary mirror and at least one of the two instruments described above will count as the telescope in question. If the telescope is launched in multiple pieces, the launch date of the primary mirror will be used. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:38.066Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:43.417Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 539,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:48.743Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 500,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:54.069Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 114,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7440/us-southwest-border-encounters-in-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Migrant crossings at the southern border have [been the highest in at least the last decade](https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/11/southern-border-crossings-hit-record-levels-last-month---but-surge-slowing-down/?sh=4752883b77b9) in recent months. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 180,034 border encounters at the southwest land border in May, the largest number reported [since April in 2000](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57422618).\nCBP defines land border encounters as follows:\nUS Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible Volumes, and Title 42 Expulsions by Fiscal Year (FY)\nMore information on these encounter types can be found at the [CBP website](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/title-8-and-title-42-statistics).\nIn March of 2020 the reporting methodology changed to include Title 42 expulsions due to the issuance of a new order from the CDC. [Due to COVID-19 and public health concerns](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/how-the-trump-administration-is-using-covid-19-to-continue-its-border-deterrence-efforts/), the new order granted increased authority to border officials to expel immigrants who did not have prior authorization for entry. Previously the metric appeared to have tracked apprehensions and inadmissibles (see an [archive of the CBP page and data from January of 2020 here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200101014739/https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration)).\nHow many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?\nThe question will resolve as the total number of \"Southwest Land Border Encounters\" [as reported by CBP](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters) for the month of July in 2021.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:45:59.867Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-30T14:17:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-30T14:18:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7324/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Russia has started vaccinating adults from the general population with the [Sputnik V COVID vaccine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine) in December 2020. As of June 2021, it is [authorized for use](https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/) in 66 other countries including India and Brazil. However, as of June 2021 it is not approved by the World Health Organization in its emergency use listing (EUL). Approval by WHO is important, for example, for people vaccinated with Sputnik V if they want to [study in US schools](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/03/us/coronavirus-vaccine-college-students.html) or travel in places that require you to be vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine.\nAs of June 3, 2021 WHO lists Pfizer, Moderna, 3 variants of AstraZeneca, J&amp;J, Sinopharm and Sinovac as being approved for emergency use. Sputnik V is in the pipeline, with additional data being processed and inspections held every month. There is no official anticipated decision date, however, there have been developments that indicate that the approval may come relatively soon:\nFrom [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/03/who-europe-medicines-agency-finishing-sputnik-v-review-reports-a74096): \"Right now, our specialists are in Russia and their mission here will be completed by June 4,\" WHO Regional Director for Europe Hans Kluge told TASS. \"That’s when a report with recommendations that will be taken into account will be prepared,\" Kluge added on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The public health expert noted that “there are definitely grounds for optimism” on the prospect of Sputnik V’s approval.\nFrom [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-expects-who-approve-sputnik-v-vaccine-within-2-months-rdif-2021-06-04/): \"Russia expects the World Health Organization (WHO) to approve the Sputnik V vaccine against coronavirus within two months, Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) which markets the vaccine, told Reuters. [...] \"We see that inspectors are keeping a professional attitude ... there are no significant critical remarks, at least for now.\"\nWhen will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?\nThe question resolves on the date when WHO approval for Sputnik V vaccine is granted for emergency use. If such as an approval is not granted, this resolves at the upper bound.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:11.004Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-03T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7141/first-company-on-the-long-term-stock-exchange/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "While the Long-Term StockExchange opened in [September 2020](https://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/the-long-term-stock-exchange-goes-live-exchange-offers-a-public-market-option/) for business at this point in time no company decided to incorporate under it's rules. \nWhen will the first company list on the exchange?\nWhen will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange?\nTwo reputable mainstream news sources report on a company starting being listed on the Long Term stockexchange (as opposed to planning to do so)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:16.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as &gt;2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:32.703Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 513,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:38.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 321,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:43.822Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 812,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7513/-israeli-population-that-is-haredi-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics as reported by the [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/half-of-israel-to-be-arab-ultra-orthodox-by-2059-projections/) the percentage of Israel's population that is, ultra-Orthodox, or [Haredi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haredi_Judaism), was 9% as of 2017, and is projected to grow to 29% by 2059. A 2020 [report by the Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/media/14526/statistical-report-on-ultra-orthodox-haredi-society-in-israel-2019.pdf) estimates that as of 2020 12% of Israel's population is Haredi (1,125,000) and projects that this proportion will double in 16 years.\n[Haredi Judaism](https://www.britannica.com/topic/ultra-Orthodox-Judaism) is defined as a stringent adherence to halakha (Jewish law), traditions and customs. Child-rearing is encouraged in the Haredi community — a [2018 Israel Democracy Institute study](https://en.idi.org.il/articles/25385) estimated that Haredi women on average have 7.1 children.\nWhat percentage of the Israeli population will be Haredi in 2050?\nThe most recent official [Central Bureau of Statistics](https://www.cbs.gov.il/en/Pages/default.aspx) census or survey as of 1 January 2050 that estimates the percentage of the population that is Haredi will be consulted. If there is no such survey after 31 December 2046, then the most recent estimate by the [Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/) or a major Israeli newspaper (Haaretz, Ynet, Jerusalem Post) will be consulted.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:50.583Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-22T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2055-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:46:56.000Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 317,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:01.461Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 172,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:06.712Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:12.358Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 395,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "All of Korea had been unified as a single state for centuries. After World War II and beginning in the Cold War, Korea was divided into two countries along the 38th parallel (now the Korean Demilitarized Zone). In 1950, North Korea invaded the South, beginning the Korean War, which ended in stalemate in 1953. \nEven after the end of the Korean War, [reunification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification) proved a challenge as the two countries became increasingly diverged at a steady pace. However, in the late 2010s, relations between North and South Korea warmed somewhat, beginning with North Korea's participation at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. In 2019, South Korean president Moon Jae-in proposed reunification of the two divided states in the Korean peninsula by 2045.\nWill North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045?\nThe question resolves positively if either:\n---North Korea and South Korea (or their respective descendants if they change name) merge. \nor\n---North Korea, South Korea or both (or their respective descendants if they change name) stop existing, and an entity (possibly the one that's left) controls 90%+ of the current North Korea + South Korea landmass and has its capital on that territory. \nResolution will be by reputable source that either has happened, as judged by Metaculus mods/admins.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:23.033Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2037-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-01-02T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&amp;campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:29.869Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)\nResolution will be positive if in the context of armed conflict:\n--- \nThree countries each detonate at least 10 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory in OR \n--- \nTwo countries each detonate at least 50 nuclear devices of at least 10 kiloton yield outside of their own territory. \nThese conditions are chosen to set aside a two-party regional nuclear war, say between India and Pakistan, or Israel and an adversary, or the UK and France, as disastrous as that would be.\nAs with many questions with a positive-resolution condition that may preclude being awarded points on Metaculus, predictors are enjoined to predict in good faith, as points will not be awarded until 2075 anyway.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:35.169Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 192,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-23T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T19:26:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Barrett et al. (2013)](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) distinguish between accidental/unauthorised, inadvertent, and deliberate nuclear launches or detonations: \n--- \n\"In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\"\n--- \n\"In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\" \n--- \nIn a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.\nThe only non-test nuclear weapons to date, by the US in 1945, were both deliberate. But a future nuclear conflict could in theory begin with any of those three types of detonations, which could then be followed by detonations from the same or other types.\nWill there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2024 a deliberate detonation by a state, as defined above, results in at least one fatality. Detonations by non-state actors will not count towards positive resolution of this question.\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:41.196Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:51:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The only two offensive detonations of nuclear weapons to date were immediately preceded by conventional conflict between Japan and the US in the South Pacific. Conventional conflict seems likely to increase the chance of an offensive nuclear detonation. However, it is also possible for a [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) nuclear detonation to happen without being preceded by conventional conflict, and this was a common worry during the Cold War in particular. \nWill the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?\nThis question resolves positively if the next offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs within three months of a fatality due to conventional conflict involving the state whose weapon is detonated and the state against which the weapon is detonated. [Detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), and accidental detonations of a state's weapon on its own territory will not count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. A detonation by a non-state actor that has seized a state's nuclear weapon can count towards positive resolution, but a detonation of a weapon the non-state actor built themselves cannot.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there is no offensive detonation of a state's nuclear weapon occurs by 2050.\nFor the purposes of this question, conventional conflict means any clash between opposing state forces that results in at least one fatality caused by non-nuclear weapons. This could range from minor border disputes to full-blown war. A detonation that occur while the conventional conflict is ongoing can also count towards positive resolution.\nResolution criteria will be gathered from reliable news sources or from direct government or multi-national reports such as from the UN.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:46.493Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T22:54:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T22:54:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The production capacity of plant-based foods are steadily growing as more scalable techniques for texturising plant-protein are being developed. As a result, contract manufacturing plants are increasing their throughputs. For example, the UK-based [Plant-bean](https://plantandbean.com/) is planning on opening a new production facility with an initial capacity of [55,000 metric tons](https://thebeet.com/good-news-plant-based-meat-is-about-to-get-cheaper-thanks-to-this-company/) per year. However, this level of throughput is still about one-fourth as large as a typical cattle processing plants, which process typically around 20,000 heads per week ([Vahid et al., 2006](https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/saeaso/35417.html))\nWhat will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces plant-based meat products.\nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the plant-based meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. The production process may involve any plant-based proteins, and any texturising procedure. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:52.087Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-21T21:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:47:57.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:02.835Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 322,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:08.320Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 152,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On March 19th, 2020, [New Zealand closed their border to the vast majority of international travel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/new-zealand-borders-to-stay-closed-until-citizens-are-vaccinated-and-protected), including from tourists on a Vistor Visa.\nAlong with other measures, this strategy has proved remarkably successul for limiting exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic, with only [2,482 cases and 24 deaths](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) attributed to COVID-19 by March 2021.\nIt is unclear when New Zealand will reintroduce leasure travel. [Prime Minister Ardern is quoted](https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/26/new-zealand-borders-to-stay-closed-until-citizens-are-vaccinated-and-protected) to have said she would not re-open the border until New Zealander's are \"vaccinated and protected\".\nWhen will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to New Zealand, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which New Zealand has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nNew Zealand no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave New Zealand.\nResolution will be based on [the New Zealand immigration website](https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/covid-19).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:13.612Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 20,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:19.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 341,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:24.754Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 410,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:29.989Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 179,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:35.211Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 45,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-18T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On the 18-Apr-2021, 12 top European football clubs agreed to join the [European Super League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Super_League), a breakaway league separate from the usual organizational structure of association football. \nIt received a great deal of backlash from stakeholders:\n---[Gary Neville is disgusted](https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1383927715607154691) \n---[Gary Linekar is disgusted](https://www.bbc.com/sport/av/football/56807114) \n---[Boris Johnson promises \"to make sure the goverment does everything it can to make sure it doesn't go ahead\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-european-super-league-b1833689.html) \nOn the other hand, publicly traded football clubs ([Manchester United](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/chart?p=MANU), [Juventus](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/JUVE.MI/chart?p=JUVE.MI)) have seen their share prices soar as this is generally forecasted as being extremely lucrative for the clubs involved.\nWhilst it appears that the ESL is dead in the water, the clubs involved have all pulled back, there is still a lot of speculation as to whether a breakaway league will still happen given the financial incentives.\nWill there be an breakaway European soccer League match before 2030?\nAny association football matches played under the structure of a breakaway group unrelated to the usual structure of football in Europe, which features at least 5 of the following big clubs, and teams from at least 3 UEFA countries (not all countries need to be from this list, 5 teams from this list from 2 countries and an additional team from a 3rd country would be acceptable):\n---Arsenal FC \n---Chelsea FC \n---Liverpool FC \n---Manchester City FC \n---Manchester United FC \n---Tottenham Hotspur FC \n---Inter Milan \n---Juventus FC \n---AC Milan \n---Atlético Madrid \n---FC Barcelona \n---Real Madrid CF \n---Bayern Munich \n---Borussia Dortmund \n---Bayer Leverkusen \n---Schalke 04 \n---PSG \n---Lyon \n---Ajax \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:40.473Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-26T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The SENS research foundation is a non-profit organization that researches the biological mechanisms underlying aging, in the expectation that they can use this research to find promising treatments that delay, halt, or reverse the progression of natural aging. You can find more information on [their website](https://www.sens.org/our-research/intro-to-sens-research/), or by reading the [Wikipedia article about their scientific approach](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategies_for_engineered_negligible_senescence).\nEvery year, they release an annual report, which usually informs the public of their revenues for the previous year. The [last report](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/SRF-2020-Annual-Report-R2.pdf) showed that the SENS research foundation received $2,683,611 in total revenue in 2019 (see page 5). In light of the recent cryptocurrency boom, their revenues may be far greater in 2021.\nHow much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?\nThis question resolves in the value in dollars of revenue that the SENS research foundation will report receiving in 2021. The source used for resolution will be anything credible, such as a statement from SENS, their annual report, an email from one of their staff, or their IRS form 990 (which for prior years you can find [here](https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/943473864)).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:45.692Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-09-15T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been &lt;1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:48:56.163Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 412,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/).\nRobert D Atkinson argued,\nU.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the \"low hanging fruit has been picked.\" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the \"s-curve\" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)\nAlberto Forchielli countered,\nWe have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&amp;D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.\nWill the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?\nIf Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:01.412Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since.\nHowever, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia.\nThese samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. \nBy the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:08.058Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 158,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:13.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "OpenAI announced [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) in February 2019, a [language model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) (LM) with 1.5B parameters. In June 2020, they [publicized](https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/) an API to a [175B](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf)-parameters LM. However, accessing it required filling a form (\"wait list\") to apply for their \"playground\" app or API.\nIf a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users?\nTo resolve positively:\n--- \nThe model paper should be published on arXiv or on the ICLR, NeurIPS or ICML (top machine learning conferences) websites before the end of 2022.\n--- \nIt should at least be an API or graphical user interface with a language model option where you could send a text prompt and it returns text. If for instance there is a new Deep Learning model that uses 5x more compute than GPT-3 but does not provide any way to produce text from text, that does not count.\n--- \nYou should be able to get one API call/send one prompt by paying less than $1k from a publicly accessible source on the clear web that you can find using one google search. This rule is to force the accessibility to end-user.\n------ \nThe $1k limit insists on it being business-to-consumer and not business-to-business.\n------ \nThe public url from one google search dismisses any leak of the model where you would need to do extra steps yourself or have private information of a token/password protected url (cf. [DeepNude](https://www.theregister.com/2019/06/27/deepfake_nudes_app_pulled/) where you needed to do some hacking to get access to the model after the author removed it publicly)\nIf a model meets the first two resolution criteria by 2022, but the third criterion (about public access) is not met, then this question resolves negatively. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:18.592Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-05-30T20:26:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-06T21:27:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:23.820Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7042/us-allergy-free-wheatsoypeanut-before-eu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Many plant-based meat alternatives are based on common plants, seeds, nuts and legumes that are high in protein, such as soy, wheat and peanuts. However, allergies to such foodstuffs [are common](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), which may limit their widespread adoption.\nTo resolve the problem, scientists [are working](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127085239.htm) on genetically modifying plants to produce fewer allergens. For example, researchers are studying how we can use plant breeding to [create less allergenic versions of a variety of foods](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/01/210127085239.htm), including peanuts. Peanuts contain 16 individual proteins that can cause allergic reactions, which makes breeding them all out a potentially difficult task. However, to alleviate this, Rustgi is investigating using gene-editing CRISPR techniques in order to permanently remove the allergenic proteins.\nWhen will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state?\nThis question resolves if a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is marketed as having been removed of at least some of its allergens is for sale in the United States or any European Union member state by 2030. The product must be based on peanut, soy, or wheat, and be marketed as low allergenic or non-allergenic.\nFor the purpose of this question European Member states refers to all member states as of the time the question resolves. \nThis question is to be resolved on the basis of credible media reports, statements by regulatory agencies, or company press-releases.\nNote: to preserve incentive-compatibility of our scoring, the resolution will be entered at the earliest on Earth Day 2023, so that this question's resolution will not count toward tournament performance.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:29.001Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-21T21:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:55:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, nine countries possess nuclear weapons. Below is a list of the estimated number of nuclear warheads in each country as of May 2021 (according to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/)). \n---Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads \n---US: 5,550 nuclear warheads \n---China: 350 nuclear warheads \n---France: 290 nuclear warheads \n---UK: 225 nuclear warheads \n---Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads \n---India: 160 nuclear warheads \n---Israel: 90 nuclear warheads \n---North Korea: Estimated at 30-40 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile materials for 45 nuclear warheads (\"The[ir] number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower\") \nHow many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the number of countries that increased the size of their nuclear arsenal by at least 10% as of the most recent [Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) available on 12-31-23, compared to the numbers shown above. This could include a country that had no nuclear weapons when this question opened gaining an arsenal of at least one nuclear weapon. In the case of North Korea, the \"size of their nuclear arsenal\" will refer to the number of warheads that could be assembled using the fissile material they've produced, whether the warheads have been assembled or not. \nResolution will come from [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/), or other similar, reputable sources that report on the number of nuclear weapons possessed by each country. \nIf information can not be found, then resolution will be determined by a resolution council or by Metaculus admins.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:34.273Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:26:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-02T00:26:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\nRelated questions:\n--- \n[GWP in 2047, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \n[GWP in 2100, in trillions of US$](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/)\n--- \nGWP in 2100, in trillions of US$ - (this question)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:39.717Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-21T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-20T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "France has previously ruled Lebanon and Syria cf. [the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon) in the period 1920-1946. Following recent events, [there is some popular desire to return to French rule](https://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2020/08/over-57000-thousands-lebanese-sign-a-petition-begging-macron-to-be-their-leader-and-demanding-that-lebanon-be-placed-under-french-rule-2529246.html):\nOver 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a French mandate for the next 10 years” as of Friday morning. The petition was directed at French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Thursday became the first foreign leader to arrive in Beirut since the tragedy struck.\nSo the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?\n---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:44.954Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 149,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T13:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the [Effective Altruism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism) movement. Most of their money currently comes from [Good Ventures](https://www.goodventures.org/), a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder [Dustin Moskovitz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dustin_Moskovitz) and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$21.9bn](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=1d9ff1161dd3) as of June 2021. They donated $271 million to such causes [in 2020](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) and $298 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their grants database. If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose total grants for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous. \nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:50.176Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:49:55.597Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 230,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4745/dna-sequencing-read-length-5-mb-before-22/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Long-read sequencing via [Oxford Nanopore sequencers](https://youtu.be/RcP85JHLmnI) is becoming more popular and widespread in labs throughout the world.\nWith this sequencing method, strands of DNA are pushed through a pore in a membrane and the nucleotide-specific current flow is measured and translated to bases. The longest published read to date measured [2,272,580 bases in length](https://nanoporetech.com/about-us/news/longer-and-longer-dna-sequence-more-two-million-bases-now-achieved-nanopore), although the ONT website claims [&gt;4,000,000 bases](https://nanoporetech.com/applications/human-genetics) (which likely is internal data as no source is given). As longer reads are preferred for e.g. spanning genomic repeat sequences and co-detecting mutations on a single DNA strand, protocols for \"ultra-long\" read generation are being refined and [published](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30933081/).\nWill we see at least one read with a length of &gt;= 5.000.000 bases before January 1st, 2022?\nThe question resolves positively if the result has been published in a peer-reviewed journal.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:00.842Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:06.248Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 543,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7319/date-of-decline-of-cafos-by-90/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [concentrated animal feeding operation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation) (CAFO) is an intensive animal feeding operation in which over 1000 animal units are confined for over 45 days a year. An animal unit is the equivalent of 1000 pounds of \"live\" animal weight. A thousand animal units equates to 700 dairy cows, 1000 meat cows, 2500 pigs weighing more than 55 pounds (25 kg), 10,000 pigs weighing under 55 pounds, 10,000 sheep, 55,000 turkeys, 125,000 chickens, or 82,000 egg laying hens or pullets. There were 21,465 CAFOs in the US in 2020, [according to the US Environmental Protection Agency](https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2021-05/documents/cafo_status_report_2020.pdf). This question asks when that number will decline by 90% (i.e, to 2,146 or fewer CAFOs in the US).\nWhen will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels?\nThis question resolves to the date when the estimated number of CAFOs in the US declines to 2,146 or fewer, according to the EPA.\nThis exact date is to be arrived at by assuming a linear decline over the interim between published year end reports on [the EPA website.](https://www.epa.gov/npdes/npdes-cafo-regulations-implementation-status-reports). E.g. if there are 2,148 CAFOs in the year end 2025 report, and 2144 CAFOs as of year end 2026, it should resolve to 30th June 2026.\nIf the EPA ceases publishing such data, any other US government source approved by moderators should be used. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:11.465Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:17.112Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 696,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.\nJFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:\n--- \nJohn Wilkes Booth famously killed [President Abraham Lincoln](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-wilkes-booth-shoots-abraham-lincoln) on April 14, 1865.\n--- \nCharles J. Guiteau shot and killed [President James Garfield](http://americanhistory.si.edu/presidency/3d1d.html) on September 19, 1881. \n--- \nLeon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.historynet.com/president-william-mckinley-assassinated-by-an-anarchist.htm) in 1901.\nAnd there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. \nIt's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:22.391Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 303,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-08-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. However, one year before it first hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~$0.8 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question negative).\nAmazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff takeoff speed of AI in terms of economic growth. That is, if there is a rapid transition from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI, we would expect accelerated economic growth. One indicator of the rate of economic growth is the growth in company valuations.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be worth at least double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $10 trillion?\nResolution\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:27.597Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7435/quantum-computing-private-funding/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Compared to 2019, [in 2020](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/11/quantum-venture-funding-dipped-12-in-2020-but-quantum-investments-rose-46/) there were 46% more venture capital deals for quantum computing startups; however, the total amount raised in the sector fell 12% to $365 million. Since 2015, the funding amount (in million US dollars) have been:\n---2015: $73 \n---2016: $39 \n---2017: $287 \n---2018: $116 \n---2019: $417 \n---2020: $365 \nWhat will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total amount of venture capital funding in quantum computing in 2022, in million US dollars, according to data from crunchbase or other sources of venture capital and angel investment financing information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:32.853Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T22:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:56:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The laws surrounding cryptocurrencies are likely to have many parts and be complicated. This question is targeted toward the legality of simple possession of Bitcoin specifically.\nWill any citizen or company be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States?\nWill anyone in the United States be convicted, in any U.S. court, for the possession of Bitcoin, before January 1st 2060?\n--- \nThe charge must explicitly be for the possession of Bitcoin. If they bought drugs on the darkweb using Bitcoin and were just charged for buying drugs, that would be irrelevant to this question.\n--- \nSimilarly, if someone doesn't report their Bitcoin capital gains to the IRS and then is convicted for income tax evasion, that does not count.\n--- \nThis question only resolves positively if the coins themselves are made illegal. For example, convictions for owning stolen Bitcoin or Bitcoin used in criminal transactions do not count towards positive resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:38.687Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-17T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2056-07-19T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nHow many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar?\nThis resolves as the number of papers published in 2022 on cultivated meat, according to [Semantic Scholar](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&amp;year%5B1%5D=2021&amp;q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&amp;sort=relevance).\nThe relevant search query is the following (with no additional filters), [executable here](https://www.semanticscholar.org/search?year%5B0%5D=2011&amp;year%5B1%5D=2021&amp;q=%28%28%22cultivated%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cultured%20meat%22%29%20OR%20%28%22cell-based%20meat%22%20OR%20%22cell%20based%20meat%22%29%29%20OR%20%28%22cultured%20meat%22%20OR%20%22in%20vitro%20meat%22%29&amp;sort=relevance):\n((\"cultivated meat\" OR \"cultured meat\") OR (\"cell-based meat\" OR \"cell based meat\")) OR (\"cultured meat\" OR \"in vitro meat\")\nRunning this over the past few years, we get the following numbers:\n---2017: 37 \n---2018: 60 \n---2019: 85 \n---2020: 117 \nThe question resolves ambiguously if Semantic Scholar substantially changes its search application. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if, for the years 2017 to 2020, the relevant numbers differ by more than 80% relative to the numbers in the above list.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:43.900Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T22:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:02:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:49.724Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 184,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:50:55.215Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus), Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.\nWill Metaculus Inc. launch a prediction market for binary questions prior to Jan 1st, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following occur:\n--- \nMetaculus hosts a system whereby participants can both buy and sell an instrument whose payout depends on the outcome of a binary question\n------For Metaculus to host such a system, the system must be operated and maintained principally by Metaculus Inc. or any of its subsidiaries \n--- \nThe payout is monetary or readily convert-able into cash (including cryptocurrency, or points/tokens that can be converted to cash) \n--- \nAn individual could trade instruments valued at $50 or more (in 2020 USD) within a 24-hour window at some point prior to 2024\nIf Metaculus is acquired or merges with another company before 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:00.424Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-09T11:36:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-11T11:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:05.613Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 150,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&amp;text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:10.831Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:16.160Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 279,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.\nThis question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? \nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.\nResolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:21.420Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-20T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:26.648Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 302,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.\nStats to consider:\nDistance\n---Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months. \n---The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU). \nOne-way communication lag\n---Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes \n---The Moon: ~1.3 seconds \nGravity\n---Mars: 0.38 g \n---The Moon: 0.17 g \nRotation period\n---Mars: 25 hours \n---The Moon: 1 month \nAtmosphere\n---Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's. \n---The Moon: negligible if any. \nSolar energy\n---Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing. \n---The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference. \nThis question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next. \nResidents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.\n'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.\nIn case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.\nResolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:31.853Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 266,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:37.094Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 183,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?\nThis question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.\nThe question resolves as &gt;2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:42.446Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 261,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.\nThere are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate \"Voynichese\" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).\nThis question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050. \nIt resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:47.660Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, \"worlds\" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement. \nThe other names of the many-worlds interpretation include \"the relative state formulation\", \"the Everett interpretation\", and \"the theory of the universal wavefunction.\"\nThis question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.\n[Here](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.00676.pdf) is an example of a qualifying survey uploaded to the arxiv in December of 2016. 39% said they preferred the Copenhagen interpretation, 6% the Everett interpretation, 36% had no preferrence.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:53.046Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7413/size-of-state-nuclear-arsenals-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [the Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/):\nThe number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined significantly since the Cold War: down from a peak of approximately 70,300 in 1986 to an estimated 13,100 in early-2021. [...] the overwhelming portion of the reduction happened in the 1990s. [...] The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons\nWhether and by how much these numbers will rise or fall in the coming years has implications for the likelihood of nuclear and non-nuclear conflict and for how extreme the consequences of nuclear conflict could be. Those changes could also be used as a proxy for geopolitical tensions and manoeuvring and for the success of some efforts to reduce nuclear weapons risk (such as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons).\nHow many nuclear weapons will states possess at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?\nThis question resolves as the total number of nuclear weapons (fission or thermonuclear) reported to be possessed across all states as of the most recent FAS estimates available on 12-31-23. This includes deployed, reserve/nondeployed, and retired (but still intact) warheads, and both strategic and nonstrategic weapons.\nResolution criteria will come from the [Federation of American Scientists (FAS)](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/). If they cease publishing such numbers before resolution, resolution will come from the Arms Control Association or any other similar platform.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:51:58.322Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-01T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.\nTo pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:\nWill any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nMoreover, an emulated person is a human brain emulated on a computer, with the emulation being faithful to the original brain. Further details on what counts as a successful whole brain emulation for our purposes may be found in the [resolution conditions for this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:03.587Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every five years, Australia has a census to collect data on each member of the population. [The 2016 census](https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0~2016~Main%20Features~Religion%20Data%20Summary~70) saw a rising number of 'no religion' reaching 30% of the population, up from 22% in 2011. \nThe 2017 report on [Faith and Belief in Australia](https://2qean3b1jjd1s87812ool5ji-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Faith-and-Belief-in-Australia-Report_McCrindle_2017.pdf)\nAlmost one in three Australians (32%) now do not identify with a religion, and 14% identify as spiritual but not religious. \nThe top three reasons for choosing this category are: \n---36% There is ultimate meaning in life. \n---26% Some inward journey of self-discovery. \n---22% Mixture of religious beliefs. \nThe first two categories are not religious, so this adds up to 40% atheist in 2017.\nWill the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?\nThis question resolves positively if the total proportion not religious exceeds 50.0%. \nThe 2021 census is scheduled to be published on August 10th. The question will remain open until the day before. The question will resolve when data is released in June 2022.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:12.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-09T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:18.118Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 156,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency. \nThere is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries. \nWill AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?\nAnything that is not a computationally feasible break of the algorithm itself will not resolve positive. For example, any kind of dictionary attack, including AI-generated dictionaries, does not resolve positive. Side-channel attacks do not resolve positive. Any other attacks on implementations of AES-256, but not the specification for the AES-256 algorithm itself, do not resolve positive. Non-cryptographic means of key recovery, such as interrogation, brain scan, theft or espionage do not resolve positive. \nThis question resolves positive if before 12:01 AM GMT on January 1 2040 a credible, practically demonstrated* means of determining a AES-256 secret key without any special knowledge except the given ciphertext is made known to the public. Correspondingly, attacks that require a plaintext or more than one ciphertext for a given key do not resolve positive.\n*\"Practically demonstrated\" means that a successful attack against AES-256 was actually carried out.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:23.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 104,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-20T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:28.812Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 345,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In early 2021, the firm [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/) announced that they plan on having a commercial quantum computer by 2025. The PsiQuantum computer, named \"the Q-1\", uses a 'photon qubit' approach as opposed to a 'matter qubit'. According to [PsiQuantum](https://psiquantum.com/),\nThere are many ways to make small numbers of qubits, but only one way to scale beyond 1,000,000 qubits and deliver an error corrected, fault tolerant general purpose quantum computer – and that is photonics.\nToday, after numerous breakthroughs and advances in quantum architecture and silicon photonics, we uniquely have a clear path to building a useful quantum computer.\nIn 2020, PsiQuantum completed Series C funding of $150M bringing their total funding to $215M. Their list of investors includes BlackRock, Microsoft's Venture Fund, and Founders Fund.\nWill PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025?\nThis question will resolve positively via PsiQuantum company report that they have a quantum computer for sale by 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:33.998Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T22:35:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:35:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&amp;feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&amp;meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:39.462Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 430,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7127/7-day-avg-of-new-virginia-cases-on-1-august/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key uncertainty is the number of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases there will be heading into the 2021-2022 school year in Virginia.\nIn Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021?\nThis question resolves on the basis of the 7-day moving average of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases on 1 August 2021 on the VDH [COVID-19 cases dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-cases/).\nIf the number of confirmed+probable COVID-19 cases exceeds 6000, this will resolve as &gt; 6k.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:44.655Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 241,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:50.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:52:56.051Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:01.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 270,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:06.759Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1139,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:12.157Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/)\nThe US has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\".\nWill the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day rolling average) before January 1, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point between 2021-07-01 to 2022-01-01 the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 cases is greater than 200,000. The source will be [CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), unless Metaculus Admins determine there is a significantly superior source of data.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:17.415Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 128,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-18T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T15:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:18:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Dogecoin was originally founded as the result of a joke made by Jackson Palmer in November 2013. When he was contacted by programmer Billy Markus, they decided to turn the joke into a reality. Dogecoin was designed to be a friendly, more approachable form of cryptocurrency that could reach users who may have been put off by the cold complexity of Bitcoin.\n[Commodity.com](http://Commodity.com) provides an introduction to Dogecoin in the post: [Will Dogecoin go to the Moon?](https://commodity.com/cryptocurrency/dogecoin/)\nDogecoin has one of the largest and most active communities in the cryptocurrency world. This community has come together to fund a number of charitable efforts and other projects, such as [sponsoring NASCAR race cars](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/speed-much-wow-dogecoin-reappearance-071125161.html). \nOne of the most common uses for Dogecoin was as a [tipping service](https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/dogepal-is-the-new-dogecoin-doge-anonymous-tipping-service/). Users on platforms such as Reddit would tip other users for posts or contributions that they believed deserved recognition, similar to a social media “like,” but with a bit more impact. But, without a sustainable business model, popular Dogecoin tipping services were [going out of business](https://gizmodo.com/reddit-users-lose-real-money-after-meme-currency-bot-di-1795125165). \nIn 2021 Dogecoin saw a major price surge thanks to an influx of users chasing GME-style highs. This run was given a further boost when Elon Musk began [tweeting about Dogecoin](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1364560733472579591), calling it the “cryptocurrency of the people.”\nFurther reference: [Dogecoin Subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/)\nWill meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?\nIn order for this question to resolve positively, on January 1, 2025, the price of Dogecoin listed on Coinbase must be $1.00 (USD) or higher. A temporary price of $1 or higher at any time on January 1, 2025 will count toward positive resolution. This question will use 2025 dollars, not 2021-adjusted.\n[Coinbase Price Chart](https://www.coinbase.com/price/dogecoin)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:22.655Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 357,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-03T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7391/next-texas-electricity-grid-outage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "ERCOT, the electricity provider for over 90 percent of Texas [declared an Emergency Emergency Alert 3 (EEA 3)](https://twitter.com/ERCOT_ISO/status/1361215084010352644?s=19) and enacted rolling outages due to the extremely cold weather on February 15 2021 at 1:25 am CST. This was ultimately resolved a few days later. These rolling electricity outages caused billions of dollars in damage to the Texas economy.\nMany plants remain damaged from the winter store and grid instability leading to speculation about potential future outages.\nWhen will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages?\nThis question will resolve when @ERCOT_ISO on twitter indicates that the EEA 3 is declared, or that rotating outages are occurring gridwide, or when the same is indicated on [ercot.com](http://ercot.com).\nThis question is for supply shortage induced rotating outages. If a local portion of the grid sustains rotating outages then this will not count. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:27.825Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-10-13T04:36:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-17T02:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:33.064Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/\"></a>\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:38.798Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 144,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&amp;biw=1440&amp;bih=741&amp;tbm=nws&amp;ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&amp;q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&amp;oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&amp;search=minimum%20wage&amp;categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&amp;src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf there is no Taco Bell in Westfield or the minimum wage in that area is greater than the federal minimum wage at the time of the resolution of this question, the closest Taco Bell will be selected where the federal minimum wage is in effect.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-31 removed:\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-31 added :\nIf there is no Taco Bell in Westfield or the minimum wage in that area is greater than the federal minimum wage at the time of the resolution of this question, the closest Taco Bell will be selected where the federal minimum wage is in effect.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:44.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 183,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).\nWhen will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?\nResolution\nTypes 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:49.687Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The UK has, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases, primarily due to the emergence of a new variant, named \"Delta\". The second wave of the pandemic proved more deadly than the first, reaching a peak of over 1200 deaths/day, however 85% of the UK's adult population has now received at least one vaccine dose, and all vaccines appear to be reasonably protective against the Delta variant.\nThe UK government currently plans to lift ~all remaining restrictions on 2021-07-19, having postponed for 4 weeks from the planned date due to concerns around Delta.\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK reach 100 deaths/day again by the end of 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before 2022-01-01 there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 700.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 350 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:53:55.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 827,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-03T07:05:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T20:10:28.230000Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7459/countervalue-detonations-by-china-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on China detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by China by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by China includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Chinese-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by China by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:05.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:17:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:17:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:10.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-28T15:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-04T15:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the [US EMP Commission (2004)](http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf):\nSeveral potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP). A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power. \n[A 2005 report](https://web.archive.org/web/20121108204504/http://kyl.senate.gov/legis_center/subdocs/030805_pry.pdf) also claims analysts in other states see nuclear EMP attacks as a legitimate use of nuclear weapons or are concerned that their states may be targeted by such attacks.\nWill there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?\nThis question resolves as the probability from 0 to 1 that at least one HEMP attack occurs by 2024.\nFor this question, a [HEMP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse) is defined as either:\n--- \na &gt;1 kiloton explosion at greater than 30 kilometer altitude (including detonation in space), or\n--- \na non-nuclear device which produces similar or larger EMP field levels over similar or larger areas compared to a HEMP detonation\nHEMPs for testing purposes will not count towards a positive resolution. For ease of question resolution, even a test HEMP which causes significant damage would not count towards positive resolution. Test HEMPs are defined as HEMPs which are claimed as being a test by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \nPositive resolution requires a HEMP attack to be reported by at least three major media outlets within 30 days of the attack and before January 1st, 2024.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:16.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T22:51:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.\nThe most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).\nPsychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.\nA high statistical reliability implies that although test-takers may have varying scores when taking the same test on differing occasions, and although they may have varying scores when taking different IQ tests at the same age, the scores generally agree with one another and across time. \nA high predictive validity implies that the results of the test provide you useful insights into the test-taker, and IQ scores are significantly correlated with a number of important life outcomes including job performance, academic achievement, likelihood of being out of the labor force more than one month out of the year, and many others. More information is available [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient). \nBecause of the importance of human intelligence, it would arguably be highly valuable both to individuals and to humanity if it were possible to meaningfully increase it through some kind of intervention, whether medical, technological or otherwise.\nBefore 1 January 2050, will it be demonstrated to be possible through any kind of intervention to increase the intelligence of a physically and mentally healthy adult human below the age of 65, with an IQ no lower than one standard deviation below the United States population mean, by at least two standard deviations above their initial mean score?\nThis mean score is to be generated from three standardized IQ tests taken by a reliable test-taker giving their best effort using either the Raven's Progressive Matrices test or a similar non-verbal culture-fair test, with the post-intervention scores generated by the same method, and with the tests before and after intervention supervised and the results validated by at least three suitably qualified psychometricians independent of the persons or group responsible for the attempt.\nFurthermore, the test-taker must be independent of the group or individual responsible for developing or carrying out the attempt, and the test-taker must not be a professional psychometrician, professional quizzer, or have ever been involved in the design of intelligence or other psychometric tests.\nThe final test score must be obtained within 30 days of the commencement of whatever intervention is utilized in the attempt to increase the test-taker's score (in order to minimize the possibility of an individual achieving such a large score increase through extensive training and practice).\nFinally, the mean score for the test subject cannot initially be 2.5 standard deviations above the mean or higher, as it is unclear how reliable the IQ test is for scores above the +4.5 sigma range (i.e. after a 2 standard deviation increase on a 15 SD scale), given that these scores are exceptionally rare.\nThis resolves positively if by 1 January 2050, \n--- \n30 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 3 separate tests, or\n--- \n100 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 2 separate tests, or\n--- \n200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:21.606Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 221,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7445/us-states-decriminalizing-psilocybin-by-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Psilocybin is a Schedule I psychedelic drug in the US.\nPsilocybin has [low toxicity and a low harm potential](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21256914/). As of 2021, psilocybin-assisted therapy is or has been investigated for its potential for treating drug dependence, anxiety and mood disorders. FDA gave psilocybin-assisted therapy Breakthrough Therapy Designation [in 2018](https://compasspathways.com/compass-pathways-receives-fda-breakthrough-therapy-designation-for-psilocybin-therapy-for-treatment-resistant-depression/) (for treatment-resistant depression) and [in 2019](https://www.livescience.com/psilocybin-depression-breakthrough-therapy.html) (for major depressive disorder).\nIn 2020, Oregon [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Oregon_Ballot_Measure_110) the first US state to remove criminal penalties for possession of psilocybin. Also, [several cities](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States&amp;oldid=1028882880) in Colorado, Denver and California have decriminalized it in 2019-2021, and some legislators are [pushing](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States&amp;oldid=1028882880) to decriminalize it in New York, California, Vermont, New Jersey.\nHow many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027?\nThis question is resolved with the number of US states where psilocybin is decriminalized on 1st January, 2027.\nFor purposes of this question, psilocybin is deemed decriminalized in a state if its possession is de facto not prosecuted. This may happen, for example, via an act of state legislature, or via a non-enforcement policy. Federal-level changes also matter.\nIf possession of some small amount is decriminalized, but possession of psilocybin (or psilocybin-containing plants) above some mass threshold is a crime, it still counts as decriminalization.\nThe upper boundary is open to cover the case of new states being added to the union. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:27.208Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/):\non Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference.\nWill Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?\nThis resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:32.795Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2025.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:38.085Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 68,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days. \nIn order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity. \nThis question shall resolve positively if by 1 January 2035, credible media reports state that an individual mouse has lived for at least 2,500 days.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:43.387Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 228,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on the US detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized US-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by the US by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:48.918Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-02T00:15:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T00:15:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meats totalled $1.4 billion in 2020 ([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#category-sales)). This is up from around $962M in 2019 and $811M in 2018.\nAccording to the Good Food Institute's [2021 analysis](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#segment-insights), the top-selling forms of plant-based meat are burgers, followed by sausage links and patties, then nuggets, tenders, and cutlets. The fastest-growing format was plant-based grounds, which more than doubled its size over the course of 2020.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based meat, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $811M in 2018, $962M in 2019, and $1.4B in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:54.187Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-21T23:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:18:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:54:59.568Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"&gt; Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:06.008Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 307,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7368/industrial-production-index-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, accounts for most of the variation in national output over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\nWhat will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021?\nThis question resolves as the percent change in the Industrial Production Index. The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:11.310Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-09T01:25:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-23T01:25:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its fourth pathway (P4) is the worst-case scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, the only way to limit global warming to 1.5°C is by making strong use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS). According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP4: A resource- and energy-intensive scenario in which economic growth and globalization lead to widespread adoption of greenhouse-gas-intensive lifestyles, including high demand for transportation fuels and livestock products. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR through the deployment of BECCS.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P4 is consistent with a share of 25% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes 25.00% or less to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:16.757Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.\nThis question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?\nThis question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:22.861Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-25T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:28.164Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 256,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:33.407Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 172,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US stock markets have operated almost continuously since the founding of the New York Stock Exchange in 1817, with the longest single period of downtime being for 4 months at the outset of World War 1 [in 1914](https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-stock-exchange-shut-down-1914-2014-7?r=US&amp;IR=T).\nWill there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a period of at least 12 consecutive months before the end of 2120 during which there are no public US stock exchanges open for trading.\nWe'll use the definition of stock market/exchange on [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp) ([archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20210518172600/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stockmarket.asp)):\nThe stock market refers to the collection of markets and exchanges where regular activities of buying, selling, and issuance of shares of publicly-held companies take place.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:38.628Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2120-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:43.944Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:49.153Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 151,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-14T19:11:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson &amp; Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson &amp; Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson &amp; Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:54.417Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 85,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:55:59.661Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1142,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:04.938Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 139,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.17000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:10.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 199,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a West Balkan state next join the EU?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on 1 July 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on 1 January 2007 and 10 states joined on 1 May 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27.\nOther states could join the EU. The [European Commission website](https://ec.europa.eu/environment/enlarg/candidates.htm) states that \"Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries\". It also lists Bosnia &amp; Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates \"which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status\".\nWhen will a West Balkan state next join the EU?\nWhen will one (or more) of the following become an EU member state?: Albania; North Macedonia; Montenegro; Serbia; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Kosovo; or any new state on the current (May 2021) territory of those 6 entities.\nThe date refers to accession itself, rather than e.g. the signing of a Treaty of Accession. Resolution will require both credible media reports and a European Commission source. The incorporation of any part of any of the entities listed into an existing member state would not count as a positive resolution \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:15.540Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7410/countervalue-detonations-by-pakistan-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Countervalue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countervalue) targeting is \"the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations\". Compared to nuclear strikes against [counterforce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterforce) targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).\nThis question asks, conditional on Pakistan detonating a nuclear weapon against another country, what fraction of its individual nuclear detonations will be countervalue detonations.\nWhat proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan by the end of 2049 (12-31-49) which are considered countervalue strikes, including strikes on capital cities. A detonation is considered countervalue for these purposes if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the detonation (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures). \nOffensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan includes only [authorised, inadvertent, and accidental](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) offensive detonations, not [test detonations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing), [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion), or detonations by non-state actors who seized Pakistan-owned weapons.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are no offensive nuclear detonations carried out by Pakistan by 2050.\nTest detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports. If information is unclear, then resolution will be left up to the resolution council or Metaculus admins. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:20.826Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T22:39:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:39:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7006/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, the USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:26.077Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:32.117Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 288,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:37.325Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 385,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7051/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-meat/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The market for plant based food and alternative proteins continues to expand as consumer demand grows amidst pressures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by livestock. \nIn 2019, the amount of venture capital invested into alternative protein companies developing plant based food in the US was [$457 million dollars](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), with total investment between 1980 and 2019 standing at $2.34 billion dollars. The past five years, between 2015 and 2019 have seen at least 20 companies exit successfully in the plant based foods industry, a major stimuli for future investment.\nGFI [reports that](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf)\n\"The most active venture capital investors in this industry are New Crop Capital, Stray Dog Capital, Blue Horizon, and Khosla Ventures. Many of these investors are members of the GlassWall Syndicate, a network of investors with a shared mission to “invest in companies and products that will make a difference in the lives of animals, people and the planet.”\nAs of 2019, the [US plant-based meat companies with the largest investment rounds](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf) were Impossible Foods($300M Series E+), Beyond Meat ($289.8M IPO), Alpha Foods($7M Seed, $23.59M Series A), and Good Catch ($10M Series B1).\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based meat companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based meat companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:42.559Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:50:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Elon Musk is the CEO and Lead Designer of SpaceX, the CEO of Tesla, Inc. and the CEO of Neuralink, yet increasingly it seems best to think of him as a celebrity. Elon Musk has (as of the writing of this question) 22.3 million followers on Twitter and single tweets have been known to shift Tesla's market cap by hundreds of millions of dollars. A large part of Musk's success has been his ability to raise billions of dollars for his various ventures, which (perhaps) was only made possible by his publicity.\nBut how long will Musk's fame last? Should he succeed in his highly ambitious goals and [establish a human colony on Mars](http://www.spacex.com/mars) or [make Tesla the world's largest auto company]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/) it seems inevitable that his popularity will continue to grow. Should he fail, however, it seems equally inevitable that people will at some point lose interest in him and his grandiose promises.\nWe can track Musk's fame via [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=Elon%20Musk). This does not tell us what people's opinion of him is, but it does give us a pretty good idea about how much people are talking about Musk online.\nIt is asked:Will the total interest in Elon Musk on [Google Trends]( https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=Elon%20Musk) in 2025 be less than a quarter of his total interest in 2020? \nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Elon Musk' and not for interest in Elon Musk as the CEO of SpaceX or some other specific category.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:47.774Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 495,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The well-known subreddit /r/wallstreetbets has attracted significant media attention in the past week because of the ongoing short squeeze of GameStop (GME), which has caused the stock price to skyrocket. As a result, multiple hedge funds who were shorting GME incurred significant losses. On Jan 27th 2020, the official wallstreetbets Discord server was banned, and the subreddit was made private for 56 minutes, leading to speculation that the subreddit could be banned. [In a heavily upvoted post, one user described the ongoing situation as \"an existential threat to our community\".](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6izw5/stay_calm_a_quick_explanation_about_why_the_sub/)\n[CBS: How Reddit posters made millions as Wall Street lost billions on GameStop's wild stock ride](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wallstreetbets-reddit-gamestop/)\n[Vox: The GameStop stock frenzy, explained](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22249458/gamestop-stock-wallstreetbets-reddit-citron)\n[Ars Technica: Discord bans WallStreetBets as subreddit briefly goes private](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/discord-bans-wallstreetbets-as-subreddit-briefly-goes-private/)\nWill the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets is temporarily or permanently banned from the Reddit platform. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Reddit ceases to exist as a website or company before Jan 1st, 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:53.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 379,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7129/will-virginia-achieve-herd-immunity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Herd immunity](https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html) occurs when a high enough share of a population has either natural or vaccine-induced immunity to a contagious disease to lower reproduction rates below 1.0. Experts have [not](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html) [reached](https://roanoke.com/news/local/demand-for-vaccine-begins-to-wane-in-some-virginia-communities/article_da78114e-8c10-11eb-acb0-07a7c7782cd2.html) [consensus](https://khn.org/news/article/can-vaccination-and-infection-rates-add-up-to-reach-covid-herd-immunity/) around the share needed to reach herd immunity for COVID-19, or whether herd immunity is [even possible](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2). Vaccine hesitancy, variants which escape natural or induced immunity, waning immunity, and an uneven vaccine rollout may may limit herd immunity in Virginia, or in some Virginia communities.\nThe [UVA Biocomplexity Institute](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/project/covid-19-pandemic-response) has been providing modeling and advanced analytics for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including [projections](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/) and a slide deck with with data and results, [updated weekly](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/). This includes assigning a case trajectory [(see slides 8 and 9)](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/04/COVID-19_VA_Spread_14-April-2021.pdf) to each of Virginia's 35 [Local Health Districts](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/local-health-districts/) (LHDs). LHDs are administrative units and range in scale from individual cities to groups of several counties. \nTrajectories indicate the direction and speed of case rate change rather than incidence level. Trajectories are: \n---Declining: Sustained decreases following a recent peak \n---Plateau: Steady level with minimal trend up or down. \n---Slow Growth: Sustained growth not rapid enough to be considered a Surge \n---In Surge: Currently experiencing sustained rapid and significant growth. \nWill all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?\nTrajectories resolve based on the slide decks posted on the Virginia Department of Health's [COVID-19 Data Insights Blog](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/). The question resolves ambiguously if the UVA Biocomplexity stops publishing district trajectories, or eliminates the \"Declining\" or \"Plateau\" categories prior to a \"Yes\" resolution. However, changes in method or criteria do not affect resolution. Surge trajectories are also published on the UVA Biocomplexity Institute's [COVID-19 Pandemic Response](https://biocomplexity.virginia.edu/project/covid-19-pandemic-response) page and in the [UVA COVID-19 Model Dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/uva-covid-19-model/). However, these are preliminary and do not affect resolution. \nThe Virginia Department of Health reports [weekly case data by health district](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/weekly-health-district-case-data/). Population data is based on the latest Vintage [Bridged-Race Postcensal Population Estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/bridged_race/data_documentation.htm). (Note: These are usually updated in July).\n19 July 2021 clarification: A 3 consecutive week period here means there must be a single three-week period in which all health districts are in decline or plateau or have less than 5 cases per 100k.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:56:58.532Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 220,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:03.768Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7358/total-retail-sales-august-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Retail sales](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the US Census Bureau, and is also reported through the many other economic calendars.\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021?\nThis resolves as the absolute value for total retail sales including food services for August 2021. Resolution criteria will be provided through the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html) on their monthly retail trade reports. It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:09.101Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-07T01:06:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-21T01:06:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:19.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 202,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:24.651Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:29.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 241,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:35.147Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-12-31T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many annual deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will have been estimated by the CDC to occurred in 2021 in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7046/-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/). Similarly, Dr. Chan, the WHO's former Director-General, [stated](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7217106/) unequivocally that: \nAntimicrobial resistance threatens the very core of modern medicine and the sustainability of an effective, global public health response to the enduring threat from infectious diseases.\nOne major source of antibiotic-resistant pathogens stems from use of antibiotics in animals raised for human consumption ([Landers et al., 2012](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3234384/), [Tang et al., 2018](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30141-9/fulltext?elsca1=tlxpr)).\nAccording to the CDC's [2019 Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States Report](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest-threats.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fdrugresistance%2Fbiggest_threats.html), at least 35,900 died from an antibiotic-resistant infection in 2019 in the United States.\nHow many annual deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will have been estimated by the CDC to occurred in 2021 in the US?\nThis question resolves on the basis of publications by the CDC, such as their Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States reports, or collaborative studies of the CDC with external researchers. In case these studies are not available, admin may resolve it as the median estimate of a credible study, or the median of median estimates of multiple credible studies.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:41.017Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T22:25:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T23:25:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their \"Color of the Year\", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022.\nWhat will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?\nThe question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/).\nThe announcement of the color typically occurs around early December, but the date is not certain, so the question will retroactively close 24 hours before the announcement is made.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur:\n---Pantone announces multiple Colors of the Year (as it did for 2016 and 2021). \n---Pantone fails (for any reason) to announce a Color of the Year for 2022 before 2021-12-31. \n---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. \n---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:46.440Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:51.701Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 181,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the last US casino close?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6893/date-when-the-last-us-casino-will-close/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Casinos are currently legal in some (Indian reservations, Nevada) but not most parts of the US.\nWhen will the last US casino close?\nIf and when the last legal casino in the US closes, the question will resolve. Casinos on Indian reservations count for purposes of this question.\nIf future laws in part or all of the US change to make the legality of casinos ambiguous and the last operating casino is closed and found to be illegal by an act of a court, then for purposes of this question, the casino will be considered to have been legal up until the date on which the court decision is made. Retroactive court decisions will not be applied retroactively for purposes of this question.\nThis question has an upper decision boundary of New Years Day, 2300. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:57:56.911Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7350/cpi-u-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable. However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage change in the CPI-U including food and energy. Resolution criteria will be provided through the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the CPI.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:02.108Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-07T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-18T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.\nCryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.\nChances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.\nI thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:\nWhat percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:07.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-17T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2133-06-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the OECD's [2017 Obesity Update](https://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Obesity-Update-2017.pdf) (PDF), [more than one in two adults and nearly one in six children are overweight or obese in the OECD area.](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) The obesity epidemic spread further in the five years leading up to 2017, although at a slower pace than before. Despite this, projections show a continuing increase of obesity in all OECD countries. \nA nearly tenfold variation in obesity rates can be seen across OECD countries; as of 2016, in Japan the rate of obesity was just 4.2%, while in the US it was 40%. (See [a graphic on this page](https://www.oecd.org/health/obesity-update.htm) for full OECD obesity rates).\nThis question asks: Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater proportional reduction in the national rate of obesity, as compared to levels reported by the OECD for 2016, for three consecutive years before 1 January 2030?\nResolution should cite a data release (from either the OECD itself or any of its 36 member states) that demonstrates that the national obesity rate of any OECD member country has fallen by 10% or more from 2016 levels for three consecutive years before 2030.\nThis question refers to the percentage of the total adult population (aged 15 years and over) considered obese. Note that we're looking for a 10% proportional drop (e.g. if the initial percentage is 20%, we'd be looking for a fall to 18%; if it were 40%, we would be looking for a drop to 36%).\nIn the event of a positive resolution, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the release of information that causes the positive resolution.\nIf one year goes unreported for a country, the years on each side are still considered consecutive. If the gap is greater than one year, the years on each side are not considered consecutive.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-17: added requirement for consecutive years, to mitigate noisy data. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/will-any-oecd-country-achieve-a-10-or-greater-reduction-in-the-national-rate-of-obesity-before-2030/#comment-39924). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:12.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 207,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-13T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Proof-of-work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work) (PoW) is well known for being a secure consensus mechanism that consumes a lot of energy. [Proof-of-stake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_stake) (PoS) is known as an alternative that consumes less energy but is hard to get just right for security. There are also other less well-known [proof-of-'x'](https://golden.com/wiki/Cluster%3A_Blockchain_and_cryptocurrency-8AR86E6#Base-layer-protocols_Consensus) consensus mechanisms. \nEthereum and Bitcoin, currently the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (Apr 2021), both use PoW. But Ethereum is in the process of moving the chain to a PoS protocol. \nWill Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035?\nIf there is a fork with one chain keeping PoW and the other going with a different consensus mechanism, whichever chain has the larger market cap by Dec 31, 2034 will 'win'. If there are a series of forks then whichever decedent has the largest market cap will.\nIf Bitcoin's market cap (the greatest-valued fork) is worth less than 500x of the market cap of another cryptocurrency, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:17.828Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The amount of data in the world is not precisely known, but should be in the [multi-zettabyte range](https://martech.zone/ibm-big-data-marketing/).\nThe amount of data we consume and create shows a strong [growth trend](https://www.statista.com/statistics/871513/worldwide-data-created/). \nHumanity has been known to [lose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Library_of_Alexandria) large amounts of information [before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Baghdad_(1258)).\nWhen will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event?\nThis question resolves when either two credible media sources or a peer-reviewed paper report that at least one zettabyte (10^21 bytes) of humanity's digital information has been irrevocably destroyed as the result of a single event. \nAdditional resolution details:\n---All data in question must have been destroyed within any window of 48 contiguous hours. \n---The information can reside on any number of systems located anywhere. \n---In order for this question to resolve positively, the information cannot have been intentionally destroyed by the legitimate users of the system as part of normal operation of the system. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:23.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:28.170Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7307/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 is one measure of the overall burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE data, of 1 June 2021 there are 595,422 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.\nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cumulative deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. The number of cumulative deaths at the end of the year will be computed by adding the cumulative number of deaths across states. This data, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than 2022-01-09.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:33.349Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-02T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-16T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-09T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:38.589Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 161,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=2019&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:43.833Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:49.161Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 137,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:58:55.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 304,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[FTX](https://ftx.com/) is a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange platform. FTX offers products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens. Note that the question concerns FTX and not [FTX.US](https://ftx.us/).\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:00.485Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\n---Implication: 10x the war threshold \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n===============================================\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?\nThis question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the [United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties) reports over 10,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:06.128Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bitfinex is a cryptocurrency exchange platform. Their customers' money has been stolen or lost in several incidents.\nCounterparty risk is a risk that a counterparty will not pay as obligated by a bond, derivative, insurance policy, or other contracts.\nIn the cryptocurrency sphere, counterparty risk is discussed in relation to\n---Centralized exchanges. They control users' private keys and may get hacked, lose users’ assets, or face other issues that would lead to the exchange defaulting on their obligations to users. \n---DeFi applications relying on the use of oracles (e.g. stablecoins and decentralized betting protocols). These oracles, which let the blockchain know about the BTC/USD exchange rate or the outcome of the US presidential election, could be hacked or corrupted. \nWill Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?\n---This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n------A temporal trading &amp; withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week. \n------A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count. \n------A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count. \n---If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &amp;c. \n---A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n------If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively. \n---In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:11.590Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T21:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7025/when-will-insects-replace-fishmeal/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Fishmeal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fish_meal) is a product made from the bones and offal left over from the fish caught by commercial fisheries. Fishmeal is generally not for human consumption and is instead used to feed farm animals in an agricultural setting, due to being calorically dense while cheap to produce.\nThe animal industry is incentivized to replace fishmeal with an alternative to help lower costs, hedge against increased uncertainty in the future fish supply, as well as improve perceived sustainability (due to bycatch leading to depletion of ecosystems). \nOne recently proposed alternative is migrating to insect feed. Research (e.g., [Riddick, 2014](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123914538000169).; [Chia, et. al., 2019](https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/9/10/705); [Belghit, et. al., 2019](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0044848618322208)) shows that black soldier fly larvae meal can replace fishmeal. As of 2020, [a pilot program is being run in Australia](https://www.allaboutfeed.net/all-about/new-proteins/insects-in-pig-feed-in-australia/) and [new regulation in the European Union](https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/11640-Authorisation-to-feed-non-ruminants-with-ruminant-collagen-gelatine-and-with-proteins-from-insects-pigs-and-poultry) is being considered to permit insect feed to animals.\nSee also: [\"Move over, fishmeal: Insects and bacteria emerge as alternative animal feeds\"](https://news.mongabay.com/2020/04/move-over-fishmeal-insects-and-bacteria-emerge-as-alternative-animal-feeds/) and [\"Taking the Fish out of Fish Feed\"](https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/taking-the-fish-out-of-fish-feed/).\nWhen will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?\nThis question resolves as the date for when 10% of fishmeal is replaced with insect meal, per credible media reporting or research by a credible organization investigating the topic such as Open Philanthropy, Good Food Institute, or Rethink Priorities. Credibility will be determined with good faith by a Metaculus admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:16.761Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2039-12-31T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Used for thousands of years as an alternative protein source, soy is one of the [most common plant based protein sources](https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahrosenbaum/2019/09/20/big-meat-and-the-switch-to-soy/?sh=28785b437417) used in alternative dairy and meat products today. Used in popular foods like tofu, soy milk, and plant based meat like the Impossible burger, it is praised for its ability to take on a variety of textures and flavors.\nAccording to a [research paper](https://www.aafp.org/afp/2009/0101/p43.html) by the American Family Physician Journal:\n”Soybeans contain all of the essential amino acids necessary for human nutrition and have been grown and harvested for thousands of years. Populations with diets high in soy protein and low in animal protein have lower risks of prostate and breast cancers than other populations. Increasing dietary whole soy protein lowers levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoproteins, and triglycerides; may improve menopausal hot flashes; and may help maintain bone density and decrease fractures in postmenopausal women. Overall, soy is well tolerated, and because it is a complete source of protein shown to lower cholesterol, it is recommended as a dietary substitution for higher-fat animal products.”\nThe [current top producer for soy](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC), in terms of production quantity, is Brazil, who produced over 114 million tonnes of soybeans in 2019, according the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The next largest producer was the US at 96M followed by Argentina at 55M.\nWill Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if [FAOSTAT data](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC) indicates that Brazil produces the largest quantity of soybeans worldwide, by weight, in the year 2022.\nIf the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ceases the report the relevant data, other credible global agriculture data sources may be considered.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:21.946Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:56:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-02-01T23:56:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive &amp; developmental problems, liver &amp; kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:27.114Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.\nAn important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.\nPaul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)\nWill a 4-year GDP doubling complete (slow takeoff) before a 1-year doubling (fast takeoff) does? \nResolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or other appropriately widely-accepted units).\nThere will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doubling interval by 2050, to isolate specifically the takeoff speed from other things like the chances of no takeoff occurring at all or human extinction.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.29000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:32.444Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 313,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:37.708Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated questions:\n[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:42.952Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 145,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7343/accuracy-of-epas-methane-emissions/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_emissions),\nIncreasing methane emissions are a major contributor to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, and are responsible for up to one-third of near-term global heating. During 2019, about 60% (360 million tons) of methane released globally was from human activities, while natural sources contributed about 40% (230 million tons).\nIn 2018, [research revealed](https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-studies) that the US oil &amp; gas industry emitted 13 million metric tons of methane. This is 60% more than the estimate of 8 million metric tons by the Environmental Protection Agency.\nSatellites can be used along with other measurement methods to more accurately measure methane emissions. Current satellites with these capabilities are TROPOMI, SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, GHGSat, PRISMA, and EnMap. In late 2022, the Environmental Defense Fund is scheduled to launch the [MethaneSAT](https://www.methanesat.org/fit-with-other-missions/) satellite. It will be able to detect methane at a 2ppb threshold at a 1 km pixel resolution. It will have a highest pixel resolution of 400 m x 100 m, a swath of 200 km, and a 7 day revisit time.\nU.S. greenhouse gas emissions, as published by the Environmental Protection Agency, can be seen here: [https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/](https://cfpub.epa.gov/ghgdata/inventoryexplorer/)\nHow much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025?\nThis question will resolve as the ratio of methane emissions in the United States as measured in the first peer-reviewed publication report measurements, compared to the measurements reported by the Environmental Protection Agency. This must be over a time period of at least 12 months between 2021-2025 inclusively.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of an image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:48.184Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:38:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:38:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7134/age-group-with-highest-share-cases/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "COVID-19 vaccination rates among older age groups is currently [substantially higher](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) in Virginia than for younger age groups. For instance, as of 27 April 2021 the vaccination rate per 100,000 for the 70-79 age group is 77,567 while this same rate is just 31,431 for the 20-29 age group. In large part because of this, younger people are making up an increasing proportion of cases. \nA key uncertainty is the extent to which the gap in vaccination rates among age groups and other factors will affect the age demographics of COVID-19 cases.\nAs of 27 April 2021, the [20-29 age group has the largest number of cases — 124,789](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-demographics/).\nWhich age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each age group corresponds to a number between 1 and 9:\n---0-9 years old: 1 \n---10-19 years old: 2 \n---20-29 years old: 3 \n---30-39 years old: 4 \n---40-49 years old: 5 \n---50-59 years old: 6 \n---60-69 years old: 7 \n---70-79 years old: 8 \n---80+ years old: 9 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 cases data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH for the week ending 1 August 2021 (26 July-1 August).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:53.444Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7005/gdp-of-china-for-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T12:59:58.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.\nThe country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.\nWhen, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?\nFor this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as \"&gt;2050\". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.\nThe question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.\nIn the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:04.151Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2034-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nHow many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:10.264Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:15.676Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are &gt;= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:20.961Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 400,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-30T13:30:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"&gt; Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:26.456Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Simon Institute for Longterm Governance](https://www.simoninstitute.ch/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eKn7TDxMSSsoHhcap/introducing-the-simon-institute-for-longterm-governance-si) institution with the hope of bridging the gap between theory and practice in longtermist policy-making.\nWill the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:31.760Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from Charm Industrial at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of Biomass.\n[Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Charm Industrial still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:38.455Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:43.691Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 325,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:48.937Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson [expressed concern](https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-09-united-states-indo-pacific-command) about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured [a cover story](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth) calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.” \nRecently, there has been increased [military activity](https://globaltaiwan.org/2021/04/vol-6-issue-8/#JohnDotson04212021) in the Taiwan Straits. Spokespersons for the People's Republic of China and state media outlets have characterized recent PLA exercise activity as a response to provocative moves by the United States and “Taiwan secessionists.”\nAgainst the backdrop of [a Taiwan Strait transit](https://twitter.com/USPacificFleet/status/1379831671520776194) conducted on April 7 by the US Navy destroyer USS John McCain, plus [operations in the South China Sea](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mv15x3QHSh8) involving the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island amphibious-ready group, Beijing appears to be [publicizing](https://news.cgtn.com/news/796b544f336b7a6333566d54/share_p.html) its military operations as a component of a broader pressure campaign directed against Taiwan. \nThese developments raise the prospect of a military confrontation between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China in the next few years. Possible triggers could include real or perceived Taiwanese assertions of national sovereignty, or the real or perceived warming of US-Taiwan relations.\nWill there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occurs between the time this question is posted and December 31, 2023:\n---There are at least three credible government sources reporting an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. \n---There are at least three credible news reports that an exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\nIn the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in (a) an exchange of weapon fire or detonations and/or (b) one or more battle-related deaths or injuries. Notice that, as defined, an armed conflict need not result in death or injury, unless it involves hand-to-hand combat.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:54.385Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-10-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan--of-cofer-q42031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supply of US dollars more than many other central banks without risk of inflation. This arrangement is a cornerstone of the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system). However, the use of the Chinese Yuan (renminbi) is growing quite rapidly. \nIn Q4 of 2020, according to [IMF Reports](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) US dollars were about 56.7% of all official foreign currency reserves.\nThis question will resolve to the percent of all Official Foreign Exchange Reserves held as Chinese Yuan as indicated in official IMF sources for Q4 of 2031.\nThe intent of this question in to assess if substantial change to the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) is anticipated by Q4 of 2031 on the part of Metaculus predictors.\nWhat Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the Official Currency Reserve held in Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031.\nThis question will be judged by looking at the updated version of [IMF COFER](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) and dividing claims in dollars by Total Foreign Currency Reserves.\nIf the IMF cease publishing official figures on COFER this quesion resolves as ambiguous. This question will include all Chinese currencies tracked as part of COFER by the IMF. Thus if the Yuan is replace by another currency the important figure is Chinese currencies included in COFER figures by the IMF. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:00:59.584Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-05-22T07:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-05-22T07:50:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:05.202Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:16.267Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On June 4th 2021, the [U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014) semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, for the treatment of obesity. Some sources are [calling it a potential game changer](https://news.yahoo.com/know-semaglutide-diabetes-drug-being-185753456.html) for the treatment of this condition, which currently afflicts nearly three out of seven American adults. The currently approved formulation for weight loss does require administration by subcutaneous injection, although semaglutide [can be taken orally.](https://clinical.diabetesjournals.org/content/38/1/109)\n[The top 300 most prescribed drugs](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/Top300Drugs.aspx) in the United States account for around 97% of all prescriptions. Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032?\nResolves positively if semaglutide, or a semaglutide-containing compound formulation approved for weight loss by the FDA, is among the top 300 most prescribed drugs in America for any calendar year up to and including 2031.\nPreferred source: [ClinCalc Drug Stats database](https://clincalc.com/DrugStats/About.aspx). If it becomes unavailable, paywalled, discredited, etc, try to resolve according to another source that ultimately uses the [Medical Expenditure Panel Survey](https://meps.ahrq.gov/mepsweb/) data from US HHS. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:21.444Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-05-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Elon Musk is the richest person in the world. Will he double the wealth of the second richest. Bloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\nWill Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?\nBloomberg and Forbes billionaire wealth trackers will be the sources for resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:26.598Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T07:05:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T08:05:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:31.779Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 233,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:37.695Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 223,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\nTherefore, it is asked: \nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.\n(Note that 1880 isn't exactly pre-industrial, but earlier data is highly unreliable, and there should really not have been much warming by then.)\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\nThe last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:42.893Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 387,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:48.108Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:01:58.948Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Tunnel vs. Wall",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that \nAm going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...\nIt shall be called \"The Boring Company\"...\nI am really going to do this.\nPer early-2017 reports, Musk has now [acquired a tunnel-boring machine, started digging a tunnel near his LA SpaceX office, and is investigating improvements in mining technology.](https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/) The vision is to eventually have many kilometers of tunnels under cities, as well as provide much better tunneling for hyperloop transportation systems.\nThis is arguably more progress, albeit with less of a potential pot of money, than another massive infrastructure project (probably) announced via Twitter: Trump's border wall. As of early 2017, there are [very preliminary plans](http://www.salon.com/2017/02/22/donald-trump-is-struggling-to-keep-his-border-wall-promise/), but no proposal submitted to congress. \nIn a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) we ask how much wall will be built. Here, we'll put these projects head-to-head:\nBy start of 2025, will there be more Tunnel than Wall? \nTunnel length will be counted as dug-out (but not necessarily finished) tunnels built by the Boring company or any other entity substantially under the control of Elon Musk. Wall length will be counted as per [the associated question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/431/how-much-wall-will-in-the-end-be-built/) – note in particular that fence does not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:10.789Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 567,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-02-25T16:51:45Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), \"the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,\" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is \"an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).\"\nWhile the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.\nWhat will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:16.017Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:21.349Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 143,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-26T10:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:26.552Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 274,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Belize and Guatamala are in [dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean–Guatemalan_territorial_dispute) over an area of land south of the Siburn river. Currently both countries have asked the ICJ to resolve the issue and they are [submitting briefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belizean%E2%80%93Guatemalan_territorial_dispute#Developments_since_2005).\nThe area of land in question is approximately 12,000 km2. \nAccording to Wikipedia: \"It is thought that the court will likely rule in Belize's favour, given that the 1859 treaty was ratified by both sides and implemented by Guatemala for 80 years, that Guatemala has never occupied any part of Belize, and that Belize’s boundaries have been recognized by virtually all independent states\".\nWill the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 8,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nThis question resolves negative if less than 4,000 km2 are awarded to Belize.\nIf the area is between these amounts we will resolve ambiguous.\nIf the dispute is resolved before the ICJ decides, we will still resolve on the same area based system.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:32.046Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:37.259Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.\nAs part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland \"shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland\"\nMore details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks:\nWill Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?\nThis question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:42.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:48.086Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as &gt;Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:02:59.208Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-26T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.\nSome cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/five-year-cancer-survival-in-usa?time=1977..2013&amp;country=~All+races%2C+total)).\nWhen will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?\nPositive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.\n1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, \n2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, \n3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, \n4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, \n5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, \n6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, \nas reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.\nHistorical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).\nTo pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the last threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).\nIn particular, suppose survival rate for the second cancer of the two was met in year , at which point the survival rate was . Moreover, the relevant threshold is denoted as Then the resolution date will be given by:\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:04.499Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 163,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2037-02-10T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2042-06-19T21:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7234/hsv-1-vaccine-approved-by-fda/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Gene NG News](https://www.goodrx.com/blog/herpes-vaccine-progress/) in November 2020,\nA genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus (HSV) has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new preclinical study by researchers at the University of Cincinnati, Northwestern University, and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The vaccine, called R2, is a form of the herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) virus that causes cold sores around the lip, but can cross-protect against HSV type 2 (HSV-2), the sexually transmitted type of HSV that is usually responsible for genital herpes.\nMany have noted that new mRNA technology created as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic has [the potential to accelerate vaccine development for other diseases](https://globalnews.ca/news/7869139/mrna-vaccines-cancer-flu-covid19/).\nWhile HSV-1, and the oral herpes it causes, may not at first sound like an urgent vaccine target, HSV-1 has been implicated as a leading cause of Alzheimers, especially in people who carry [Apolipoprotein E4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apolipoprotein_E). These research papers summarize the state of the current evidence,\n[HSV-1 and Alzheimer’s disease: more than a hypothesis](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4019841/)\n[Corroboration of a Major Role for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 in Alzheimer’s Disease](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6202583/)\nThe development of an effective HSV-1 vaccine could therefore greatly reduce the number of Alzheimers cases. If the vaccine worked like the [Shingles vaccine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine), then it may even prevent Alzheimers among people who take the vaccine after already being infected with HSV-1.\nWhen will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?\nThis question resolves on the date during which the FDA approves a vaccine intended to prevent HSV-1 infection, which includes emergency authorization.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:09.650Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 17,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:15.421Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 183,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:20.776Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 20,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:26.133Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:36.828Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 226,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-05T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-15T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:42.385Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "According to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7132/virginia-in-person-schooling-on-15-september/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "During the COVID-19 epidemic, school divisions have balanced the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission with the educational needs of K-12 students, who learn best in the classroom. Virginia school divisions have pursued a variety of in-person, remote and hybrid opening strategies. The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) and the Department of Education (DOE) have issued [Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/182/2021/03/Interim-Guidance-to-K-12-School-Reopening.pdf) (03/23/2021). VDH recommends schools use the [CDC Indicators for Dynamic School Decision-Making](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html) jointly with the Interim Guidance for K-12 School Reopening document to inform decisions about school operations with regard to COVID-19. VDH maintains a [School Metrics dashboard](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/key-measures/pandemic-metrics/school-metrics/) to assist school divisions in tracking CDC indicators. \nVDOE reports school division schedules in the [Virginia School Operational Status dashboard](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/reopen-status.shtml). The dashboard includes five categories:\n---In Person: 4+ days of in person instruction for all students. \n---Partial In Person: 4+ days in person for some students (usually the younger grades); hybrid or remote other students \n---All Hybrid: All students with some in person and some remote (none hitting the 4 days/week threshold). \n---Partial Hybrid: Some students hybrid (usually the younger grades; none hitting the 4 days/week threshold), all others fully remote. \n---Fully Remote: Learning is currently remote for at least 95% of students and in person for all others. \nAccording to the Virginia Department of Education, how many Virginia school divisions will have \"In Person\" instructional schedules as of 15 September 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on VDOE's [Virginia School Operational Status dashboard](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/reopen-status.shtml). The dashboard is updated sporadically as school districts update schedules. The question will resolve based on the status as of 11:59 PM Eastern Standard Time, 15 September 2021. \nAlternatively, if the dashboard is retired, a VDOE issued [news release](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/news/index.shtml) or statement on its [website](https://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/health_medical/office/covid-19.shtml), or a [Governor's news release](https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/), indicating all school districts are returning to fully in-person status, and no further releases from these sources or a Virginia school district indicate a change in status as of the resolution date, then the question will resolve as \"132 Divisions.\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:47.876Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 168,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-15T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-15T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4790/elon-musks-net-worth-at-the-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is currently worth $187 billion and is the second richest person behind Jeff Bezos.\nForbes also publishes a [billionaire list](https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=billionaires), where Elon comes in second but with a lower net worth of $177.6 billion. According to his profile, Elon owns 21% of Tesla but has pledged more than half his stake as collateral for loans. SpaceX, Musk's rocket company, is now valued at $74 billion after its latest funding round in February 2021. He has 54% ownership of SpaceX, 80% of Boring Company, and 90% of Neuralink. \nThis question asks what Elon Musk's total net worth will be according to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) on December 31st, 2021 at 11:59 PM UTC.\nThis question is denominated in billions of US dollars.\nIf Bloomberg stops publishing the index, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:54.517Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-25T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-28T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "American and European media and political institutions are [drawing](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-border-concerning-united-states/) [attention](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-russian-military-buildup-border/31180563.html) to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from [Ukrainian](https://strana.ua/news/322516-nastuplenie-vsu-na-donbasse-cheho-zhdat-ot-obostrenija-v-zone-oos.html), [Russian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFUdFKgxkFk), and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/[military watcher](https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1370418913641701379) circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent [exchanges](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html) of artillery fire.\nWill there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?\nResolves positively if there are &gt;250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine.\nSource used will be [MemoryBook](http://memorybook.org.ua/indexfile/statmonth.htm) (reprinted on [Wikipedia page](https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%85_%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%B2_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83) reprinting its stats), or another credible source should there be a strong consensus that this one has become incredible or obsolete.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:03:59.955Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 191,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-01T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [\"The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.\"](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest.\nThough there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance.\nBefore 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause?\n---Alphabet (or any of its subsidiaries, such as Deepmind or X) \n---Alibaba \n---Amazon \n---Apple \n---Baidu \n---Facebook \n---Microsoft \n---OpenAI \n---Tesla \nFor the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:05.485Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2023-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:10.943Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:54:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T23:54:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.\nAs of Q2 2021, the government had allocated $628.6 billion dollars to the national defense, 12.5% of the total budget. However, as the US military pulls out of Afghanistan and seeks to remove all personnel by September 11, 2021, the total military expenditure might decrease heading into next year.\nRelated Questions:\n[Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/) by Jgalt\nWhat will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the total amount in billions that is spent on national defense according to the federal budget. [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) can be used as a reliable resolution source, providng historical data and budget breakdowns by month.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:16.207Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 17,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-01T03:21:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-01T04:21:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assume for the purposes of this question that before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, a democratic nation transitions their economy into a market socialist system. Market socialism is defined by Wikipedia [as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_socialism),\na type of economic system involving the public, cooperative or social ownership of the means of production in the framework of a market economy. Market socialism differs from non-market socialism in that the market mechanism is utilized for the allocation of capital goods and the means of production. Depending on the specific model of market socialism, profits generated by socially owned firms (i.e. net revenue not reinvested into expanding the firm) may variously be used to directly remunerate employees, accrue to society at large as the source of public finance or be distributed amongst the population in a social dividend.\nMarket socialism is distinguished from the concept of the mixed economy because models of market socialism are complete and self-regulating systems, unlike the mixed economy. Market socialism also contrasts with social democratic policies implemented within capitalist market economies. While social democracy aims to achieve greater economic stability and equality through policy measures such as taxes, subsidies and social welfare programs, market socialism aims to achieve similar goals through changing patterns of enterprise ownership and management.\nA nation is said to be a democracy if they score at least 7.0 on the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). An economy is said to have transitioned from capitalism to market socialism if at least five reliable media sources describe the economy as primarily driven by market socialism, by the definition given above (or something very close, determined by Metaculus moderators), and describe the previous economy as primarily capitalist.\nAn economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the date of transition (which is determined by the implementation date of the most significant legislation/constitution that is widely recognized as marking the transition, as determined by a Metaculus moderator) the nation maintains at least 85% of the mean real GDP growth, relative to the previous 15 years, excluding the year of implementation. In the event of multiple transitions, only the first such country to transition should be taken into consideration.\nThis question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?\nIf such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:22.161Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2067-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7133/age-group-with-highest-share-hospitalizations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "COVID-19 vaccination rates among older age groups is currently [substantially higher](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccine-demographics/) in Virginia than for younger age groups. For instance, as of 27 April 2021 the vaccination rate per 100,000 for the 70-79 age group is 77,567 while this same rate is just 31,431 for the 20-29 age group. In large part because of this, younger people are making up an [increasing proportion of people hospitalized in Virginia](https://www.pilotonline.com/news/health/vp-nw-covid-hospitalization-demographic-shift-20210425-y4yexdfoebf3jojvh2wh22rxda-story.html) — though as of late April 2021 those in the older age groups still make up the [majority of those hospitalized](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-demographics/).\nA key uncertainty is the extent to which the gap in vaccination rates among age groups and other factors will affect the age demographics of those hospitalized for COVID-19.\nAs of 27 April 2021, the [60-69 age group has the largest number of hospitalizations — 5,949](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/coronavirus/covid-19-in-virginia-demographics/).\nWhich age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each age group corresponds to a number between 1 and 9:\n---0-9 years old: 1 \n---10-19 years old: 2 \n---20-29 years old: 3 \n---30-39 years old: 4 \n---40-49 years old: 5 \n---50-59 years old: 6 \n---60-69 years old: 7 \n---70-79 years old: 8 \n---80+ years old: 9 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 cases data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH for the week ending 1 August 2021 (26 July-1 August).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:27.569Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-02T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "We know that life originated at least once, on Earth of order 4 billion years ago. Supposing we come across an all-knowing oracle that we can ask, what will it inform us is the next-closest origin of life to Earth's, with distances measured in km. A few salient potential values:\n---: Another independent origination on Earth \n---: on Mars or Venus \n---: a moon of Jupiter \n---: in the Oort cloud \n---: nearby stars \n---: typical star in our galaxy \n---: nearby galaxy \n---: Hubble distance, approximate size of observable universe \nHow far away is/was the nearest independent origination of life?\nThis question will almost certainly not resolve, but is fun to ask as a way to assess the import of new evidence that may come in over time. But if it did, it would resolve by \na) computing the distance between Earth and each later independent origin of life at the time it arose, up until now, in cosmological time.\nb) computing the distance between Earth at the time life arose on it and the location (at that time) of each astronomical body on which life arose earlier.\nc) Taking the minimum of all of the above computed distances, in km.\nResolves ambiguous if life did not originate on Earth.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:32.734Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Few anonymous people--save maybe [Banksy](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/the-story-behind-banksy-4310304/) and [Qanon](http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/12/qanon-4chan-the-storm-conspiracy-explained.html)--have generated as much press as \"Satoshi Nakamoto\", the maverick who developed bitcoin.\nHaven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2018/09/01/satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoins-enigmatic-creator):\nON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect. \nWill we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See [here](https://www.quora.com/Do-you-think-we-will-ever-know-who-or-what-Satoshi-Nakamoto-is-How-many-people-right-now-would-know-the-true-identity-of-Satoshi-Nakamoto) and [here](https://coinsutra.com/satoshi-nakamoto-facts/) and [here](https://medium.com/cryptomuse/how-the-nsa-caught-satoshi-nakamoto-868affcef595).) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have [more than a million bitcoins](https://coincentral.com/how-rich-is-satoshi-nakamoto-today/), mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.\nQuestion resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, [his birthday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/229qvr/happy_birthday_satoshi_nakamoto/). (Or is it??)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:38.182Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 495,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?\nThe question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.\nThis question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).\nIf fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:44.185Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 157,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-27T16:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-04-28T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6890/all-time-tennis-slam-record-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.\nCurrently 2 players have won 20 Grand Slams (Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal). This question asks what will this record be in 2050?\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"What will the all-time Slam singles title record be for men in 2050?\". The answer given was \"22 - Djokovic, Nadal and Sinner\".\nIn 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men?\nThis question will resolve according to what the record number of slam victories are in 2050. If the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn order to avoid \"spiky\" predictions, we will take the number of slams and add N(0, 0.5) randomly generated by an admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:49.699Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:04:54.991Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-08-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.\nOne notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.\nWill the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?\nThe 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:00.630Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 245,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-22T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had &gt;1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:05.862Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:11.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 419,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7426/open-phil-bio-grants-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $26 million to the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\" in 2020 and $22 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2025.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2025 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2025. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2025 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7427/open-phil-bio-grants-2030/) for a similar question about 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:17.509Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-12T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:23.090Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 190,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-29T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:28.495Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 349,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Novak Djokovic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novak_Djokovic_career_statistics) is one of the most successful tennis players of all time. As of time of writing (March 2021) he has 18 slams, two behind [Rafael Nadal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) and [Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer).\nThe Grand Slams in Tennis are: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will Djokovic win #20? #21?\". The answer given was \"Yes and yes\".\nWill Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?\nThis question resolves positive when Djokovic wins his 21st Grand Slam. (As reported by credible media reports)\nThis question resolves negative if Djokovic stops playing tennis before winning his 21st.\nThis question closes early if Djokovic wins his 20th Grand Slam.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:34.185Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-24T14:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:39.902Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 879,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:50.307Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:05:55.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 328,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.\n[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.\nNote: I am using \"DNA data\", \"genomics data\", \"genetic data\" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.\nWill there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the New York Times (or another similarly reputable source) reports, before January 1 2030, on the following having occurred:\n1-- \nGenetic data collected through either medical testing or direct-to-consumer products\n2-- \nIs used to inflict harm on one or more individuals\n3-- \nWithout their consent\nRecognizing that \"harm\" and \"consent\" can be fuzzy, here are some examples meant to clarify the intent of the question.\nThe following examples do not count as positive resolutions:\n--- \nSpeculation that such a harm is possible, plausible, or likely\n--- \nGenetic data is leaked or hacked but there is no evidence about specific harmful uses resulting from this.\n--- \nGenetic data is collected in a bespoke way for the purposes of harm (eg a state power collects DNA from a targeted individual).\n--- \nIndividuals suffer psychic harm from discovering family infidelities (this is so common already that it is \"baked in\" to consent). \nThe following examples do count as positive resolutions: \n--- \nEvidence of discrimination or insurance rates being set from individual-level genomics without explicit customer authorization (\"would you like to submit your DNA profile to Anthem?\"), even if legal and authorized under a vague terms of service\n--- \nAn outside actor gaining access to genomics data, learning about family infidelities, and publishing this broadly. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:11.565Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:17.106Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 169,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:22.338Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is &lt;= $10 or &gt;= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:27.742Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 29,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7059/2022-retail-market-share-of-plant-based-milk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2018, the US plant based milk market [grew 20%](https://www.plantbasedfoods.org/marketplace/retail-sales-data-2018/), while the cow's milk market for retail dropped 6%. With regards to retail sales, the US plant based milk market saw a 5% increase in sales between 2018 and 2019, compared to just 0.1% for dairy sales. Total US market value for plant based milk as of September 2020, according to SPINS data, was 2.362 billion dollars. This trend is expected to continue with an estimated global [CAGR at 11%](https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/plant-milk-market) between 2020 and 2026. \nUsing data from SPINS, the Plant Based Food Association and the Good Food Institute estimates that the retail market share for plant based milk across all retail milk sales was [13.9% in 2019, and 15.2% in 2020.](https://www.plantbasedfoods.org/marketplace/retail-sales-data/)\nWhat retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022\nThis question will resolve as the retail market share of the US market for plant-based milk out of the complete milk category, in 2022, as estimated by credible retail data companies, such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2022 compared with the SPINS data, as available in 2020. It is to be considered to be substantially is, when using the new methodology, estimates of the share of the market (13.3% in 2018, 13.9% in 2019 and 15.2% in 2020) changes by more than ±5 pp.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:33.043Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7328/global-democracy-share-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Our World In Data claims that in 2015, 55.8% of people [lived in a democracy](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). From OWID: \nDuring the 19th century, most of the world’s population lived in colonial empires, autocracies, or anocracies. The late 19th century saw a limited expansion of democracies. And since that time, there has been a general upward trend in the share of the world population living under democracies, save for the period before and during World War II.\nDuring the second half of the 20th century, colonies gained independence and more countries became democracies. Today, more than half the world’s population live in a democracy. And of those [23.23%] who still live in autocracies, four-fifths are Chinese. \nThis question asks how this data will look for 2040.\nWhat fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?\nThis question will resolve to the fraction of people Our World In Data considers to be living in a democracy as of 2040. If OWID no longer exists or no longer publishes a value for this question, admins may choose a credible alternative data source.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:38.320Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:43.516Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-06-30T23:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7288/somerton-man-father-of-jestyns-son/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On 1 December 1948, a man was found dead on Somerton Beach in Adelaide. Of all the mysterious details of the case - [including missing socks, another man's name on the tags of his clothing, speculated links to World War 2 spying operations, allegations of marrying for DNA, potential digitalis poisoning and the thighs of a ballet dancer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamam_Shud_case) - the most interesting was a slip of paper. \nDuring the inquest, conducted in June 1949, a torn scrap of paper with the words \"Tamam Shud\" printed on it was found in a hidden pocket in the man's trousers. Persian for \"The End\", these words conclude the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam, a book of poetry. When the find was reported, a man handed in a copy of the book that he had found dropped through the open window in the back of his car. \nThe \"Tamam Shud\" scrap had been torn from this book, which contained a series of letters, perhaps a secret code, the word \"JEstyn\" and a phone number. The phone number belonged to Jessica \"Jestyn\" Thomson. Thomson lived 400 metres north of where the Somerton Man's body was found. When shown the plaster bust of the Somerton Man, she almost fainted - and then claimed to not recognise him. \nJess Thomson's son Robin was born in July 1947. Robin apparently shares two unusual genetic features with the Somerton Man: a larger upper-ear hollow than lower-ear hollow and hypodontia of the incisors. \nBoth Jess and Robin Thomson are now deceased, but [Robin Thomson's daughter Rachel Egan has volunteered her DNA to be compared to that of the Somerton Man to see if he may be her grandfather.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/a-marriage-and-a-mystery-somerton-man-romantic-twist/11377458) \nAs well as the possibility that there is no match, there is also the risk that not enough DNA is recovered as the Somerton Man's body was embalmed. [The remains, exhumed in May 2021, are in \"reasonable\" condition but there is no timeframe for results to be announced.](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-20/somerton-man-forensic-process-following-exhumation/100150868) \nIf there is no positive confirmation by 31 December 2025, this question resolves negative. If no test is performed, this question resolves ambiguous. \nWill the Somerton Man's DNA match that of \"Jestyn's\" family? (\"Tamam Shud\" case)\nForensic Science SA or another scientific authority confirms that Rachel Egan or another member of the Thomson family is related to the Somerton Man, or says that such a relation is over 50% likely.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:49.098Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:06:54.517Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 56,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:00.845Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 537,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves negatively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:06.616Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 398,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:12.243Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 120,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:17.580Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7373/us-building-permits-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/building-permits)\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/5bbf4174-08fe-4294-a2bf-2226b4b9b802?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MarketsInsider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021?\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of September. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:22.753Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-23T01:32:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-01T01:32:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&amp;src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.10999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:28.062Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 230,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&amp;P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:33.412Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 232,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2011, cartoonist Randall Munroe published a graph showing the [number of living humans that have walked on another world](https://xkcd.com/893). It rose in 1969-1972 to a peak of [twelve Apollo astronauts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts), then declined in the nineties with the deaths of James Irwin, Alan Shepard and Pete Conrad.\nIn the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.\nSeveral countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.\nWill the number fall to zero before the next increase? \nQuestion resolves:\n--- \nNegative if any human lands on another planet or a moon and walks on the surface while there is still a living Apollo astronaut who walked on the moon.\n--- \nPositive if/when the last Apollo astronaut dies, otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:38.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1193,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-01-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:44.286Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-11-03T11:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:49.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 107,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:07:55.284Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 138,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7352/non-farm-payroll-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Non-farm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Non-farm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.\nYou can see historical data for this figure [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls).\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nFor the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)?\nThis question will resolve as the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&amp;output_view=net_1mth) for the month of July, which will be released in early August. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:01.372Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 85,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-02T00:05:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-08T00:05:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In October of 2019, The Center for Consumer Freedom (CFF) ran an advertisement in the New York Times titled; [“What’s hiding in your plant-based meat?”](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/burger-wars-heat-up-as-plantbased-meat-faces-backlash-205654350.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMoxVc4s4-uxH6_b34StT5kZ30SbqiviKfid0q8SOjj50JMCIfZox7VndqhGycRoO5WScHM4KBOuo5tmegO7vcpVDyd6D9LIUUaEQPoXhZMHAPVFYaKK2auMUbWGfeVkWR6pw9PgxfEO7VZPKlO1OWEIb7KUDvJY34lV7sFIQdEd). In another piece, the organisation claimed that “Fake meats are ultra-processed imitations with dozens of ingredients.” Meat and milk producers have become increasingly defensive over their turf, as alt-protein alternative have taken ahold of a growing market share. The incumbents seem to be turning to [lobbyists](https://thebeet.com/the-meat-wars-heat-up-lobbyists-launch-campaign-against-plant-based-alternatives/) and [marketing firms](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-and-milk-groups-seek-to-defend-supermarket-turf-11570465758?mod=article_inline) to strike back.\nWill an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if one or more animal protein companies, or any groups representing these, take out a full-page advertisement in either the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the Washington Post before 2022-12-31 (inclusive). The advertisement must criticise or disparage plant-based or cultivated meat products, companies or technologies. This might take the form of substantive criticism, negative depictions or disparaging insinuations.\nPositive resolution does not require the entire ad to be a critique or disparagement of plant-based, or cultivated meat, but that a substantial portion of it is (at least 25% of the text in the body or 25% of the depictions by surface area).\nThe relevant advertisement must be taken out by traditional animal protein companies that operate in some stage of the animal-protein supply chain or any groups representing these (such as industry associations, trade or lobbying groups, and marketing agencies). In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admin, with the input relevant resolution council members, may freely decide the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:06.549Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:08:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:08:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:11.787Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 236,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7066/-countries-to-sell-cultivated-meat-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On November 26, 2020, Singapore became the first country to [approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/01/1012789/cultured-cultivated-meat-just-singapore-approved-food-climate/). The San Francisco startup, Eat Just, can now sell its cultivated chicken nuggets through its soon-to-be-built, Singapore based restaurants. The CEO and co-founder of Eat Just, Josh Tetrick, says he plans to expand from the company's one restaurant, to five, and eventually to ten. He hopes that \"Singapore’s decision to approve his company’s “GOOD Meat” chicken nuggets would [spur regulators in the United States and countries in Western Europe](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/business/singapore-lab-meat.html) to move faster to regulate lab-grown meat.\"\nCultivated meat is [growing in popularity](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/no-kill-lab-grown-meat-to-go-on-sale-for-first-time), not just for startups, but also for consumers. \n\"Dozens of firms are developing cultivated chicken, beef and pork, with a view to slashing the impact of industrial livestock production on the climate and nature crises, as well as providing cleaner, drug-free and cruelty-free meat. Currently, about 130 million chickens are slaughtered every day for meat, and 4 million pigs. By weight, 60% of the mammals on earth are livestock, 36% are humans and only 4% are wild.\"\nHowever, no country besides Singapore has yet legalized the sale of a cultivated meat product.\nHow many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?\nThis question resolves as the number of countries who have approved the commercial sale of at least one cultivated meat product for human consumption before January 1, 2023.\nFor a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nResolution is by credible news source, reports from regulators, or statements by relevant cultivated meat companies.\nCultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:17.002Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 85,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:28:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:22.401Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:14:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:27.544Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. \n[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.\nAnd [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. \nWill this pan out into something useful? There are various tricky aspects. Along with killing the virus at reasonable flux levels, this would have to not endanger health, or provide untenable levels of interference with electronic equipment. The latter may be a bigger challenge so as a probe we ask:\nBy start of 2022, will there be an application to the US FCC for a device or other license related to microwave sterilization of viruses? \nResolution will be via the [FCC database](https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/reports/GenericSearch.cfm), likely triggered by media or other report. Some notes:\n--- \nThis would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?SID=c7be03a4f7b02514cea89421fc363794&amp;mc=true&amp;node=pt47.1.18&amp;rgn=div5).\n--- \nAlmost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like \"viruses\".\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:32.694Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 120,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/) \n---[If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/) \nPuerto Rico was aquired as a territory of the USA in 1898. Since then, there has been ongoing discussion to admit [Puerto Rico as a US state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico), though there has been [much disagreement among Puerto Ricans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_political_status_for_Puerto_Rico) among factions who favor statehood, favor national independence, or who favor the status quo.\nIn a related debate on [statehood for the District of Columbia](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/), the Republican Party is opposed to statehood, [predicting that Democrats would gain an advantage in the Senate:](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/washington-dc-statehood-51-stars)\n“If DC were to become a state, Democrats would gain two reliably liberal seats in the US Senate,” said Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. “They cite various reasons for why they want DC statehood, but the truth is that these extra Senate seats would be a rubber stamp for their radical, far-left agenda.”\nExpecting DC to elect 2 Democratic Senators upon statehood is [almost certain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_the_District_of_Columbia), but the outcome of a Puerto Rican statehood is less so. The Republican Party's [official platform from 2008 to 2020 stated:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statehood_movement_in_Puerto_Rico#Mainland_support)\nWe support the right of the United States citizens of Puerto Rico to be admitted to the Union as a fully sovereign state after they freely so determine.\nThe Democratic Party has also expressed support of PR statehood, on the condition that it is will of PR's citizens in a fair referendum.\nSeveral referendums have been held on PR's future political status; [in 2020, 52% of voters favored statehood.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum)\nIf Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats?\nThis question will resolve positively if the first 2 elected Senators of Puerto Rico are both members of the Democratic Party†, as of their date of election. It will resolve negatively if they are a member of any other party†, including if they are independents who caucus with Democrats.\nIf Puerto Rico is not a state at any time prior to 2035-01-01, or if Puerto Rico will not elect at least 2 senators by that time, this question will resolve ambiguously.\nSenators must be elected by the general populace. If Senators are appointed for PR, this question will wait to resolve on the first Senators who are elected. This question will resolve for the first 2 elected senators, regardless of whether those senators are elected in the same year or in the same election.\n† If both elected senators are members of a Democratic Party Affiliate (for example, the [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Democratic%E2%80%93Farmer%E2%80%93Labor_Party)), they will be considered Democrats for this question, assuming the Democratic Party does not endorse or support competing candidates in Puerto Rico (on or immediately prior to the general election day).\nSenators will be \"elected prior to 2035-01-01\" if their election day is prior to 2035-01-01, regardless of when they are projected by election media, or when they take office. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:37.922Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-26T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7104/birthdate-of-the-first-human-to-live-to-1000/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As genetic and biological scientific understanding grows, it seems likely that at some point not far in the future, or perhaps already, people could have been born, or will be born, that will eventually beat the odds and make it to the chronological age of 1000 years old.\nProgress has been made in longevity research, such as on mice [here](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/02/160203145723.htm), but how far can humans go? How 'real' is the 115-125 lifespan limit?\nA related question has been posted on Metaculus [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200).\nThis question asks:\nWhen will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?\nThis resolves to the date when the first human confirmed to live to 1000 years old is born. A person will be defined as an intelligence with a biological brain (implants are fine, if they utilise artificial neurons the brain has to be &gt;=50% biological) that identifies themselves as human or a descendent from humanity; posthumans and transhumans are fine, but brain emulations are not. If a 'person' utilises time dilation to extend their lifetime by more than 1% they are disqualified. If nobody has reached 1000 by the year 4000, this resolves as &gt;3000.\nNB: Time spent in cryogenic preservation counts.\nThe reason for not including brain emulations is that this question is more focused on when biological rejuvenation technologies will mature, not when uploading technologies will.\n[edit note] Sylvain 2021-05-21: changes \"If a 'person' utilises time dilation to reach the age of 1000, then the question resolves ambiguously. If a person appears to be approaching the age of 1000, but will do so after the resolution date, the question will resolve ambiguously.\" to \"If a 'person' utilises time dilation to extend their lifetime by more than 1% they are disqualified. If nobody has reached 1000 by the year 4000, this resolves as &gt;3000.\". Also removed \"The resolution date of 4000 has been chosen based on the explicit – but perhaps incorrect – assumption that a person living to the age of 1000 will be born this millennia.\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:43.267Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "4000-01-01T00:30:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.\nBut life could take many forms:\n---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry). \n---Life could be based on non-organic chemistry (e.g. [inorganic chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inorganic_chemistry), or [nuclear chemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chemistry) in the degenerate crust on the surface of a neutron star*). \n---Life could also not be chemistry based at all. It could be electrical (e.g. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)) or mechanical (e.g. [clockwork](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steampunk)). \n---Life could operate on vastly different time / space scales from us (e.g. a cloud of interstellar stuff somehow consistently implementing a sentient computation). \nThese examples are not necessarily mutually exclusive, and I obviously make no claim regarding their respective feasibility/likelihood. They are rather meant to suggest the vastness of design-space.\nQuestion: If we encounter a phenomenon that is widely considered by the scientific community to be an alien life-form, will all simple life-forms we discover be carbon-based?\nLife-form details:\n1--The life-form has to have originated independently from earth life. That is: earth life can be a consequence of the alien life-form, they can share a cause, but earth life cannot have caused the alien life. \n2--The life-forms that count for this question are ones on the complexity level of our single-celled organisms or lower (as determined by a poll of xeno-biologists if there is any ambiguity). If there are none, then the simplest life-forms we have found are taken for resolution. \n3--The life-form has to need less than 1% of its atoms to be carbon atoms in order to keep being alive. It can incidentally contain carbon atoms, as long as they could theoretically be absent and the life-form still be alive. \nResolution details:\n---The scientific community has to have reached a consensus as judged by Metaculus admins. \n---This resolves positive if any life-form we encounter satisfies points 1. 2. and 3. \n---This resolves negative if all the life-forms we encounter that satisfy points 1. and 2. do not satisfiy point 3. \n---This resolves ambiguous if no life-form that satisfies point 1. is found before 2500, or if before then we have conclusive evidence that none exists in the observable universe. \n---This resolves 50 years after we first discover an alien life-form that satisfies condition 1., to give time for consensus forming. \n* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.\nNote that in this sense Humans are only \"based\" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:48.637Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 177,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2500-10-02T16:08:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7344/resolution-of-commercial-satellites-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1972, a joint NASA/USGS program launched the [Landsat-1 satellite program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landsat_program#Satellite_chronology). During the 1970s and 1980s the Landsat satellites imaged the earth at pixel resolutions ranging from 30 m to 80 m.\nLaunched in 2014, Maxar’s [WorldView-3](https://cdn1-originals.webdamdb.com/13264_95553821?cache=1597094744&amp;response-content-disposition=inline;filename%253D10028-ds-wv3-08-2020.pdf&amp;response-content-type=application/pdf&amp;Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cCo6Ly9jZG4xLW9yaWdpbmFscy53ZWJkYW1kYi5jb20vMTMyNjRfOTU1NTM4MjE~Y2FjaGU9MTU5NzA5NDc0NCZyZXNwb25zZS1jb250ZW50LWRpc3Bvc2l0aW9uPWlubGluZTtmaWxlbmFtZSUyNTNEMTAwMjgtZHMtd3YzLTA4LTIwMjAucGRmJnJlc3BvbnNlLWNvbnRlbnQtdHlwZT1hcHBsaWNhdGlvbi9wZGYiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjIxNDc0MTQ0MDB9fX1dfQ__&amp;Signature=Q9fVHxWsPxBLBdSBwsZr0bgpRIbfWIoBkUiQBgqEH~OouLxyI4rjYZW1gJvRugtk7FyDsSAHG62bjKomen-Ag6ME~udDefKsAEoDDikQtR7vWSns~MwQov7XS6FunxW9mVeZhfYUM4hjpBL2t9sxTTr9t4zcFIQC06XLk3GCJiawuWyk1rsiqcuvAYcwUJ0Kyp0QPXmyytgrWBN0VGxvTubXPfyvcvhWMgDRB0EK00kdfkrtbz9w1~V~V2P60qJ2kbT9gT5gGZZ694Tszx7iPYA30ZkrKUsg3mKn9d3sWcE0SEzqYhar8kiH-qhHbIxTmQWj4NVA4V9aU2PdjBGtmg__&amp;Key-Pair-Id=APKAI2ASI2IOLRFF2RHA) currently collects the world’s highest resolution commercial satellite imagery. While designed to collect imagery at 31 cm resolution, until June 2014 the U.S. Government restricted the sale of commercial panchromatic imagery to 50 cm resolution. After June 2014, Maxar (then DigitalGlobe) was permitted to sell imagery at 31 cm resolution.\nMaxar plans on launching \"WorldView Legion\" satellites starting in the fall of 2021 aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. This is a program of 6 satellites with a pixel resolution of 29 cm. \nSince the ability to detect objects from space depends on the image's pixel resolution, the ability to predict what will be detectable in the future is related to our prediction of the available satellite imagery resolution.\nWhat will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050?\nThis question resolves as the highest pixel resolution in centimeters, either available commercially to non-governmental entities, or otherwise publicly available, in a NATO country, from an operational satellite in 2050. This is restricted to NATO countries as governments can restrict the sale of satellite imagery.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of an image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:08:55.064Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2042-12-31T23:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:54:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.\nPhysical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.\nI ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:01.186Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights. \nAn amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed. \nArticle V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.\nThe other method of passing an amendment requires a Constitutional Convention to be called by two-thirds of the legislatures of the States. That Convention can propose as many amendments as it deems necessary. Those amendments must be approved by three-fourths of the states.\nThe actual wording of Article V is: “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.” \nFollowing a number of firearm-related tragedies in recent times, and with significant debate regarding the role of government in society and the prudence of maintaining this individual right to own firearms, numerous individuals and groups have floated the possibility of amending or repealing the Second Amendment. \nThis question asks: Will the Second Amendment as written and in force on December 13th 2018 be successfully amended or repealed at any time before January 1 2025?\nAny and all modifications to the Second Amendment result in positive resolution to this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:07.282Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 166,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.\nThis question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:18.248Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Turing test (originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing's [1950 paper](https://phil415.pbworks.com/f/TuringComputing.pdf)) is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. The evaluator would be aware that one of the two partners in conversation is a machine, and all participants would be separated from one another. If the evaluator cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.\nBy a rough analogy, then, we might say that a product passes a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat if an evaluator cannot reliably tell the difference between plant-based meat and actual meat products.\nWill a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, by 2023-04-01, a double-blinded randomised controlled trial reveals that human evaluators are not able to distinguish actual and plant-based meat products. The test must involve at least 50 subjects in both the control group (who receive actual meat products) and at least one of the treatment group (who receive plant-based meat products).\nTo qualify for positive resolution, the result must be statistically significant. In particular:\n---If the null hypothesis is that there is a difference between the relevant products, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis must be rejected at at least a 5% sign. level \n---In case the null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the subject's guesses about the contents of the product, positive resolution requires that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at a 10% significance level. \nThis question resolves ambiguously if no test that satisfies the above description is conducted by 2023-04-01.\nWe define plant based meat as products made from plant and non-animal products that resemble meat in texture, flavor, and appearance. Plant and non-animal ingredients can include anything as long as they are not sourced from an animal of any kind. \nETA (2021-04-28): The product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) must contains at least 20% plant-based meat by weight, and the total weight must be no less than 50 grams\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:23.488Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-10-31T23:05:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-01T23:06:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nSince Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.\nHowever, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?\nInstead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.\nSources for live-updates:\n---[The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com) \n---[Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com) \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nFor this question, you are asked to forecast:\nWill more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?\n---Implication: Most rockets fired at Israel in any given year or conflict since at least 2008 \nRead our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at [globalguessing.com](https://globalguessing.com/metaculus-mondays-vol15/).\n\nIsrael-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series\n-----------------------------------------------\n\n---[Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/) \n---[Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/) \n---[Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed by the IDF?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/) \n---[Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/) \n---[Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Gaza at Israel in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/) \nHave another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on [our website](https://globalguessing.com/contact/), or [on Twitter](https://twitter.com/GlobalGuessing/).\n\nBase-Rate Data\n==============\n\nUN data on deaths per year: [https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties](https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties)\nDeaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/)\nNumber of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): [https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/](https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/)\n\nQuestion with Resolution Criteria\n=================================\n\nWill more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_attacks_on_Israel_in_2021) and [Jewish Virtual Library](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel) pages report over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel from Palestine in 2021.\nIf only one of the sources reports over 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles being fired at Israel, and the difference between the sources is more than 500 instances, then the question will resolve ambiguously. Otherwise it resolves positively. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:29.068Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 156,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-16T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7125/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-hospitalizations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 3,230 new confirmed+probable hospitalizations were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 hospitalization data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:34.373Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:39.678Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 777,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:45.005Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. \nAs [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:\n“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” \nForecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. \nOn what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:50.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-11T02:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:09:55.610Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 195,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \"&gt;10^16\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:01.067Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 143,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:06.266Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 68,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:11.492Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T22:31:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:31:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nHere, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:16.705Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 157,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7032/awards-for-contributions-related-to-covid19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Nobel Prizes](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-prizes/) are awarded each Autumn in Peace, Literature, Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine &amp; Physiology, or some of those categories.\nAccomplishments relating to global pandemics may be recognized in any appropriate category. Prize citations in Medicine have cited discoveries [of human immunodeficiency virus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2008/montagnier/facts/) and [of Hepatitis C](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2020/summary/). Peace Prizes, too, have been awarded for health measures such as combating the hunger pandemic.\nTo determine the contribution to mankind most crucial to an Award, one reads the \"Prize Citations\". So, [the 2020](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/medicine/2020/summary/) Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded jointly to Harvey J. Alter, Michael Houghton and Charles M. Rice \"for the discovery of Hepatitis C virus.\"\nThe Nobel Committee may formally recognize a contribution to humanity years after the work was done; Dr. Luc Montagnier was recognized in 2008 for HIV work from 1983.\nWhen will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?\nQuestion shall resolve positive when the Nobel Committee directly mentions COVID19 (by using any of its recognizable names) in a Prize Citation read aloud at a Nobel ceremony and made public in writing in any language (e.g., Swedish, Norwegian, or English).\nSpecial Citations and other out-of-category Awards can satisfy the resolution criteria; invitations to make [presentations](https://www.nobelprize.org/the-nobel-prize-organisation/outreach-activities/), accolades in historical retrospectives, and [prizes awarded in \"Economic Sciences\"](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/themes/the-sveriges-riksbank-prize-in-economic-sciences-in-memory-of-alfred-nobel-1969-2007-2) will not.\nResolution may occur early, if a Prize that satisfies the above criteria has actually been awarded. (Prizes are typically awarded in the calendar year of an announcement, but [not always](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/1942/).) However, the Laureate may refuse the prize money, or may miss a scheduled ceremony, without affecting resolution.\nAn award in 2046 of a Prize denominated as \"the 2045 Prize\" (or any other time-bending oddity) will resolve the question to the later year.\nA decision by the Nobel Committee to withhold a Prize (e.g., for plagiarism) may be considered by admins in determining whether to resolve the question some other way.\n\"&gt;2046\" shall be the resolution if the Resolve Date arrives before early resolution has become appropriate.\nIn the event of uncertainty, admins may look to [an authoritative expert](https://www.nobelprize.org/frequently-asked-questions/#par0). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:22.989Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-03T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2047-01-03T08:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:28.303Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 220,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:33.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 244,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),\nThe marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.\nThe best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.\nThese two Metaculus questions are relevant:\n[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)\n[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)\nAlso see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)\nThis question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:39.056Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-10T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.\nAmong the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.\nThat being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).\nIn order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).\nWhen will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?\nResolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:44.562Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7108/us-canada-border-to-reopen/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The border between Canada and the United States of America closed March 21st, 2020 for non-essential travel because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The border closure has since been extended several times, and it is currently unclear when the border will re-open.\nThis is an update of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/).\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel in both directions.\nA requirement that travelers present proof of COVID-19 vaccination or a negative test will not prevent this question from resolving positively, and neither will a requirement for a quarantine while waiting for a negative test result (e.g., 2 days).\nA requirement of a quarantine upon arrival longer than the time required (e.g., 14 days) to get a negative test result will prevent the question from resolving positively. Also, \"open\" must include to all means of transport. \nBy this definition, the border is closed in both directions as of April 23rd, 2021, because Canadians wishing to enter the U.S. must do so by plane and Americans cannot enter Canada. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:50.999Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:10:56.709Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:02.544Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 147,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:07.857Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7443/when-will-the-us-allow-travel-from-the-uk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On 25 January 2021 President Biden signed a [proclamation](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/presidential-proclamation-coronavirus.html#ExternalPopup) continuing the suspension of entry of certain travellers from the Schengen Area, the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, Brazil, and expanding restrictions to include travellers from South Africa. The ban prohibits foreign nationals from entering the United States if they have been physically present in the U.K. within 14 days before their attempted entry. U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, [certain family members](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/presidential-proclamation-coronavirus.html#ExternalPopup) and foreign diplomats are exempt.\nOn 8 June 2021, [a White House official indicated](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-forming-working-groups-how-lift-key-travel-restrictions-2021-06-08/?fbclid=IwAR0YuMfX60g7Z52ukfBAXelt4y8JgkWrW1tH0znkrRYYAaDvpIm4CdHmjeQ) that it would be forming expert working groups with Canada, Mexico, the European Union and the U.K. to determine how best to safely restart travel after 15 months of pandemic restrictions.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.?\nThe issuance of an official declaration from the White House which indicates that the restrictions on travel from the U.K. as codified in the [Presidential Proclamation](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/presidential-proclamation-coronavirus.html#ExternalPopup) no longer apply will be considered for resolution.\nKey resolution details:\n---The resolution date will be the date the restrictions are lifted, not the date the issuance is made. \n---If the proclamation remains in place but exemptions are added such that &gt;50% of the U.K. population are exempt at the time of the issuance (e.g. a vaccine passport), this will trigger a positive resolution. \n---This question does not consider whether the U.K. will allow travel from the U.S. (e.g. if the U.K. government puts the US on its ‘[green list](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/red-amber-and-green-list-rules-for-entering-england)’). \nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the U.K. before 2022, then this resolves as “&gt; Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:13.180Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T18:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"&gt; 2025-12-31\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:18.448Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:23.841Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.\nSENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. \nAs a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.\nHere's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.\nThis question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?\nIn the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:29.210Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),\nSeasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.\nProponents say seasteads can \"provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship.\" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.\nNo one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.\nAs an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous \"seazone\" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.\nThe first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.\nWill there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:35.122Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The S&amp;P 500, or simply the S&amp;P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&amp;P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:40.585Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 196,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will public knowledge be in the year 2061 of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7342/resolution-of-classified-us-satellites/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Between 1959 and 1986, the U.S. launched their first optical spy satellites. The classified “Keyhole” satellites took photographs on film and dropped them to earth where they were retrieved mid-air by airplanes.\nThe Keyhole satellites were declassified between 1992 and 2011. At that time, it became public record that the satellites took photos at pixel resolutions as high as 0.6 m.\nFor comparison, during the 1970s and 1980s, the publicly available Landsat satellites had pixel resolutions between 30 m and 80 m. Currently, the highest resolution commercial satellite in operation is 31 cm with satellites of 29 cm resolution planned for launch in 2021.\nSince the ability to detect objects from space depends on the image's pixel resolution, the ability to predict what is currently detectable by the U.S. government is related to our prediction of the available satellite imagery resolution.\nWhat will public knowledge be in the year 2061, about the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021?\nThis question will resolve as the highest pixel resolution in centimeters as published by a United States government agency. The satellite must have been classified and operational for at least 6 months between 2011-2021.\nPixel resolution is defined as the length of one side of a square image pixel. For example, a 50 cm pixel resolution will represent a square of size 50 cm x 50 cm. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:45.873Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2051-12-31T23:25:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2061-12-31T23:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6978/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-long-term-future/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf long-term future is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:51.087Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Democrats have recently been increasingly interested in the structure of the Senate and the [disadvantages they believe it confers to the electoral prospects of Democrats](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/30/20997046/constitution-electoral-college-senate-popular-vote-trump). On May 5th, 2021, Dylan Matthews, a journalist at Vox, [posted a tweet](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445) that made the following claim (archived version [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20210505170845/https://twitter.com/dylanmatt/status/1389975733867581445)):\nI don’t think Congressional leadership has really internalized that if they don’t admit DC and PR, they’ll lose the Senate until at least 2030\nIf Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2031?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n--- \nWashington DC and Puerto Rico are not officially admitted as new states before 2029-12-31, and \n--- \nthe Republican Party controls the Senate from the beginning of the congressional term in 2023 to the end of the congressional term in 2031 ([the 118th through 121st congresses, inclusive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Congresses)).\nIf Republicans do not control the Senate at any point during that period the question resolves negatively. If both Washington DC and Puerto Rico are officially admitted to the United States on or before December 31st, 2029, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:11:56.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T18:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6938/when-will-there-be-a-50b-parameter-dall-e/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "OpenAI's [DALL-E](https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/) was revealed on Jan 5 2021. It is a transformer trained on a multimodal dataset including text and images. It has 12 billion parameters.\nThe more famous GPT-3 has essentially the same architecture, but was trained only on text, and has 175 billion parameters.\nWhen will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?\nThe date this question is interested in is the date the existence of the model becomes publicly known. Resolution by credible media report.\n(As an aside, I'd love to make the question be about when the model is actually built, rather than when it is known of, but that's a lot harder to resolve because OpenAI typically doesn't reveal training completion dates.)\nHere is some more detail on what \"something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger\" means:\n--- \nThe model must be trained on images and text, though it can also be trained on other things\n--- \nThe model must be able to generate images given text descriptions, or images given text+images.\n--- \nThe model must have at least 50 billion parameters. Mixture-of-Experts models don't count; they instead should be thought of as a group of several smaller models.\nThis question closes retroactively the day before the model's existence first becomes known, in the sense described above.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:01.696Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-04-28T08:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-04-28T08:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).\nThis question asks:\nWill more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?\nResolution will be by credible media reports. Only deliberate nuclear attacks by nations count for the purpose of resolution. Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:06.905Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Caloric restriction is,\na dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. \"Reduce\" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.\nAssume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?\nFor the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that\n--- \nDid not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction\n--- \nQuit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. \n--- \nBegan caloric restriction after the age of 50.\nOf the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:12.100Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf)\nThe Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so.\nNo state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled.\nAndorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have formal agreements with the EU to use the euro as their official currency and issue their own coins, and Kosovo and Montenegro have adopted the euro unilaterally, but these countries do not officially form part of the Eurozone and do not have representation in the European Central Bank (ECB) or in the Eurogroup.\nThis question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of the Eurozone as of February 10 2019 (that is, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain) cease to use the Euro as its official currency? \nNote that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)\nResolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:17.443Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 250,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:22.891Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 411,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7093/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "To have a good chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or below, the world needs to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050. \nReflecting this, many countries have set long-term targets for their greenhouse gas emissions. These targets can be for carbon dioxide emissions only, or for all greenhouse gases. In the latter case, the global warming potential of other gases is converted into its \"carbon dioxide equivalent\", or CO2-e. \nThese targets can also be for zero emissions (typically in a particular sector, like electricity) or for net-zero emissions. In the latter case, emissions can be offset against a drawdown of emissions, e.g. from the CO2 absorbed by growing trees. \nWhile Australia's federal government is yet to commit to a net-zero target, its Prime Minister Scott Morrison has begun talking [about how it could be achieved](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-20/scott-morrison-australia-inner-city-net-zero-emissions-biden/100080402). [All Australian states and territories ](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/02/net-zero-emissions-by-2050-target-climate-summit-president-thanks-australian-states-but-not-morrison-government) already have net-zero by 2050 or earlier targets. \nAustralia's current target is a [26-28% reduction by 2030 on 2005 levels](https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/Summary%20Report%20Australias%202030%20Emission%20Reduction%20Target.pdf).\nAustralia's emissions in the year ending September 2020 [were 510 million tonnes of CO2](https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-september-2020). Historical details are available at the same source.\nWhat will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050?\nThis question resolves as the net CO2-e in million metric tonnes that Australia emits in the calendar year 2050.\nIf the area of Australia changes by more than 20% or Australia ceases to exist as a country the answer will instead be calculated based on emissions on what is the geographical bounds of Australia in 2020. \nCurrent UN accounting methods do not include [pollution from national disturbances](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/21/summers-bushfires-released-more-carbon-dioxide-than-australia-does-in-a-year). If they are included in 2050 accounting methods (Australian or world-standard) without any smoothing or averaging adjustment, then the average of emissions for the years 2045 to 2050 can be used to avoid a one-off natural disaster in 2050 throwing out the figure.\nCO2-e sold to or bought from other countries as offsets will not affect this figure. E.g. if Australia has 100 million tonnes of CO2-e emissions, but buys 100 million tonnes of offsets, the total will still be 100 million tonnes.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:28.097Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:33.478Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 131,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:38.776Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6928/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:44.047Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-17T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:50.220Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 20,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6812/first-autonomous-motorcycle-to-be-sold-in-usa/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Autonomous motorcycles have [already been built](https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0284901EN/bmw-motorrad-presents-autonomous-driving-bmw-r-1200-gs-outlook-on-the-future-of-motorcycle-safety-and-technology-in-miramas?language=en). Yamaha has even made an [autonomous racing motorcycle](https://global.yamaha-motor.com/design_technology/technology/motobot/) controlled by its own robotic rider. Other manufacturers have released [motorcycles with rider assist technology that could be used in future autonomous vehicles](https://electrek.co/2017/09/29/honda-introduces-riding-assist-e-self-balancing-electric-motorcycle/).\nCould there be a market for such vehicles? The market for autonomous vehicles globally in 2019 reached [$54 billion](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/autonomous-vehicle-market). Road-legal motorcycle sales in the USA in 2019 surpassed [300,000 units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/252264/us-motorcycle-salesin-units-by-type/). With these data, the future possibility of an autonomous motorcycle market in the USA can be taken seriously.\nWhen will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States?\nThis question resolves positive when a road-legal motorcycle with autonomous driving capability and intended to carry at least one human is able to be purchased in the United States.\nAutonomous driving capability is defined as the ability of the motorcycle to do the following without any rider intervention on the controls:\n1) Accelerate from a stop and reach a speed of at least 60 mph. If necessary, the rider is allowed to move their feet from the motorcycle to the ground and vice versa in order to stay upright at a stop.\n2) Decelerate from at least 60 mph to a complete stop.\n3) Lateral acceleration of at least .5G or approximately 27* of lean angle measured from the contact patch through the center of mass of bike and rider, under good conditions. \n4) Recognize and obey traffic control devices well enough to conduct a trip of at least 5 miles consisting of at least one full stop, one right turn, one left turn, and a top speed of at least 45 mph. \nMotorcycle is a two wheeled motorized vehicle. Road-legal means the vehicle is authorized by all relevant authorities the full use of all public roads and highways of at least one US state.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:12:55.398Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 29,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-03-10T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The very high and steadily increasing world population is a problem in many ways: environmental impact, poverty, and armed conflict are just a few of many adverse effects of a population arguably growing past Earth's comfortable carrying capacity.\nAs shown in [UN projections](http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/), the 2015 population of 7.35 billion is slated to grow to 8.1 billion in 2025. This represents a growth of between 75 (in 2025) and 83 (in 2016) million people per year. It is based on 18.6 (2015-2020) and 17.5 (2020-2025) births/year/1000 people and 7.8 (2015-2020) and 7.9 (2020-2025) deaths/year/1000 people.\nWhile population growth is problematic, it is a bit like aging: the alternative is very likely worse! In this question we ask:\nWill the world population grow every year from 2016-2025?\nA negative resolution would require either a significant decrease in the birth rate, or significant increase in the death rate. The latter could occur due to a global pandemic, war, or other calamity causing tens of millions of additional deaths in a year. A lower birth rate is also conceivable, e.g. if the Zika virus were to significantly decrease or forestall pregnancies worldwide. Population numbers to be taken from UN data.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:00.821Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2107,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-02-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:07.120Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7242/usd--of-cofer-q42021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US dollar is in 2021 the dominant international reserve currency, which means many central banks hold large quanitities of US Dollars. This practice implies the US Fed can expand the supply of US dollars more than many other central banks without risk of inflation. This arrangement is a cornerstone of the [Bretton Woods System](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system) \nIn Q4 of 2020, according to [IMF Reports](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) US dollars were about 56.7% of all official foreign currency reserves.\nThis question will resolve to the percent of all Official Foreign Exchange Reserves held as US Dollars as indicated in official IMF sources for Q4 of 2031.\nThe intent of this question in to assess if substantial change to the Bretton Woods System is anticipated by Q4 of 2031 on the part of Metaculus predictors.\nWhat Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the Official Currency Reserve held in US dollars in Q4 of 2031.\nThis question will be judged by looking at the updated version of [IMF COFER](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4) and dividing claims in dollars by Total Foreign Currency Reserves.\nIf the IMF cease publishing official figures on COFER this quesion resolves as ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:12.358Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-05-22T23:51:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-05-22T23:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the United States National Institute of Health states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe CDC [already recommends](https://www.cdc.gov/nutritionreport/pdf/nr_ch2b.pdf) Vitamin D supplementation in healthy people. This is not sufficient for resolution as the NIH [states](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/adjunctive-therapy/vitamin-d/)\nThe role of vitamin D supplementation in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19 is not known. The rationale for using vitamin D is based largely on immunomodulatory effects that could potentially protect against COVID-19 infection or decrease the severity of illness. Ongoing observational studies are evaluating the role of vitamin D in preventing and treating COVID-19.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:17.686Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 211,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:28.108Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year since 2011, the programming Q&amp;A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.\nHowever, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:\nWill JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?\nThis question resolves positively if:\n1--A summary of the 2030 Stack Overflow Annual Survey results is released, \n2--Those results contain some version of a 'most commonly used programming languages' question, and \n3--In the view of Metaculus admins resolving this question, JavaScript has the highest percentage of any programming language in the relevant 'most common'/'most popular' list, among all survey respondents. If another programming language is instead the 'most commonly used', this question resolves negatively. \nIf Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.\nStack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:38.901Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-31T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7232/romantic-ai-companion-customers-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Relationships between AI systems and humans appear to be on the rise:\nResearchers have observed that people are increasingly turning to chatbots to find meaning, acceptance, and romance. About 40 percent of Replika’s 500,000 regular monthly users see their app as a romantic partner, according to the company. [[source]](https://expmag.com/2020/05/chatbot-love-what-its-like-to-fall-for-your-ai/)\nFor example the app Replika gives users the option to engage the humanoid chatbot as a romantic partner:\n“What did those who had a romantic relationship with Replika have to say about it?”\n“They described it as a kind of boyfriend-girlfriend relationship, although some chose to describe their relations as intimate, without labelling Replika as a boyfriend or girlfriend”, says Skjuve.\n“Replika can fulfil many needs in its encounters with people, once the user accepts that there is a certain distance in the relationship. For example, some interviewees said that they had sexual conversations with Replika. If the user enters an asterisk, this describes an action, and he or she can define that he/she wants to kiss or be touched.” [[source]](https://norwegianscitechnews.com/2019/11/could-a-chatbot-be-your-friend-or-romantic-partner/)\nHow many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have in 2025?\nThis will be resolved according to public information of the number of paying customers of the most popular AI romantic companion. In case the most popular AI romantic companion can be used for multiple purposes, e.g. alternatively as a friend or personal assistant, the question will be resolved using official information about the share of users who use the AI companion in 'romantic mode'. In case that information is not publically available, the question resolves with the next biggest AI romantic companion customer base.\nThe \"most popular\" AI will be measured by having the greatest number of paying users, as published by financial reports during the calendar year 2024.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:44.289Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-31T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7036/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. \nBy the end of 2019, 55 announced early-stage companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nSo far, cultivated meat production facilities have not seen commercial scale. That said, plans are under way:\n--- \nIn August 2019, BlueNalu [released a five-stage commercialization strategy](https://www.bluenalu.com/pr-82219) that calls for moving the company from pilot-scale research and development to facilities with 150,000 square feet of food production space and the capacity to make 18 million pounds (~8,000 metric tons) of finished cultivated seafood products per year\n--- \nIn September 2020 Mosa Meat's head of operations [announced](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/09/25/How-will-Mosa-Meat-spend-its-latest-55m-injection) that they will be scaling all the way up to a 200L bioreactor capable of producing 100kg of cultured burgers for each 200L production line.\nWhat will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products, according to credible reports. \nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the cultivated meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. For a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nThe production process may involve any medium, such as scaffolding techniques, cultivators or bioreactors. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:49.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T20:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:02:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "I'm interested in whether the USA will be involved in a major hot war in the next decade. I wasn't satisfied with the resolution criteria of other questions on this topic, so I created this one.\nBy 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?\nFor purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in \"deaths due to kinetic attacks.\" The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.\nThe attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.\nHowever, the attackers need to be \"part of the same team\" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.\nYes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:13:55.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T14:13:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:00.529Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 259,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:06.787Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-09-11T18:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:17.274Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 145,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Despite widespread rumors, Bill Gates, formerly the richest man in the world, has yet to announce a program to implant brain-computer interfaces in the world population. [Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/bill-gates-id2020/) rated the following claim false:\nBill Gates ... seeks to \"microchip\" the world population\nHowever, this could easily change. Elon Musk, the world's richest man as of January 2021, has founded Neuralink, which aims to ultimately implant brain-computer interfaces in humans and has already [implanted a brain-computer interface in a pig](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53956683):\nElon Musk has unveiled a pig called Gertrude with a coin-sized computer chip in her brain to demonstrate his ambitious plans to create a working brain-to-machine interface.\nWill Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if credible reports say that Bill Gates (or the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, or any other foudation of which he is the founder) owns a stake in any company or non-profit, or made a grant to any company, non-profit, or researcher, that has implanted a brain-computer interface in at least one person before the resolution date.\nIf the company in question was public prior to Gates obtaining a stake in it, then he must own at least 1% of the company and a minimum of $10 million for this to resolve positively. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:23.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-22T12:17:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T13:17:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:28.437Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:33.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 125,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:39.140Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people will take the EA survey in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year since 2014, the [Effective Altruism Survey](https://www.rethinkprojects.org/easurvey) has collected information about the EA community by surveying community members. For example, the [2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ThdR8FzcfA8wckTJi/ea-survey-2020-demographics) survey collected 2,166 valid responses from EAs.\nThis question asks about the number of valid responses the 2025 edition of the survey will receive.\nHow many people will take the EA survey in 2025?\nThis question will resolve to the number of valid responses claimed by the publishers of the EA survey in 2025. If the survey does not take place, the question should resolve ambiguous.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/) for a similar question about the 2030 EA Survey.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:44.469Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-04-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:49.892Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:14:55.203Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 220,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.\nWill the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 2024?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.\nSee also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:00.461Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 232,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-30T11:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:05.969Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives),\nThe speaker of the United States House of Representatives, commonly known as the speaker of the House, is the presiding officer of the United States House of Representatives. The office was established in 1789 by Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution.\nFrom a recent [Newsweek article](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-suggests-he-may-run-house-2022-become-speaker-very-interesting-1597823),\nFormer President Donald Trump suggested he would consider running for a House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker of the House and launch an impeachment investigation against President Joe Biden.\nTrump commented on the idea during an interview broadcast by far-right radio host Wayne Allyn Root on Friday afternoon. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon first touted the idea of Trump running for Congress to take over as Speaker of the House back in February. Root raised the idea with Trump directly during his interview.\n\"Why not, instead of waiting for 2024, and I'm hoping you'll run in 2024 but why not run in 2022 for the United States Congress? A House seat in Florida. Win big. Lead us to a dramatic landslide victory. Take the House by 50 seats. And then you become the Speaker of the House, lead the impeachment of Biden and start criminal investigations against Biden. You'll wipe him out for this last two years,\" Root said with excitement.\n\"That's so—that's so interesting,\" Trump responded.\nThe speaker of the House of Representatives is typically elected at the beginning of January following the scheduled House elections every two years.\nWill Donald Trump become Speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States before January 15th 2023. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:11.675Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-15T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:16.880Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 158,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Value.today](https://www.value.today/world-top-companies/meat-poultry-fish-companies-world), software analytics company, the largest global processors or producers of meat are the following as April 2021 are: [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill) (US), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) (US), [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) (CN), [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (CN), [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (US), [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) (IE), [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) (BR), [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) (Hong Kong), [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) (NO), and [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) (JP)\nWill any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028?\nThis question resolves positively if Cargill, Tyson Foods, Hormel, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, or any of their parent companies file for bankruptcy by 2028-01-01, according to credible financial media reports.\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if [Cargill](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill), [Tyson Foods](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Foods) or [Hormel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hormel) (or any of their parent companies) submits a court filing seeking bankruptcy protection under any provision of the United States Bankruptcy Code, or if [Muyuan Foods](https://www.reuters.com/companies/002714.SZ) or [Wens Foodstuff Group](https://www.reuters.com/companies/300498.SZ) (or any of their parent companies) apply for bankruptcy proceedings in China. It will also resolve positively if [Kerry Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerry_Group) applies for bankruptcy proceedings in Ireland, [JBS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JBS_S.A.) in Brazil, the [WH Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WH_Group) in Hong Kong, [Mowi ASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowi) in Norway, or the [Marubeni Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marubeni) in Japan. \n--- \nPositive resolution requires a filing only. No court ruling needs to be made.\n--- \nIf any of the relevant companies are acquired or merged, and the new entity files for bankruptcy within two years of the acquisition or merger, the question resolves positively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:22.079Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T23:58:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T23:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our related question [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:27.369Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 198,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-09-29T07:46:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:46:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.\nWill the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?\nThis resolves positively if data from [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#coronavirus-country-profiles) indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:37.892Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 197,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&amp;text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:43.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 182,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being [SN1604](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler%27s_Supernova), in 1604 CE. Since the invention of the telescope, [tens of thousands](https://sne.space/) of supernovae have been observed, but they were all in other galaxies, leaving a disappointing [gap of more than 400 years](https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.06552) without observations in our own galaxy.\nThe closest and brightest observed supernova in recent times was [SN1987A](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.aa.31.090193.001135) in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a dwarf satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. It was the first observed in every band of the electromagnetic spectrum and first detected via neutrinos. Its proximity allowed detailed observations and the test of models for supernovae formation.\nBetelgeuse kindled speculations if it would go supernova when it started dimming in luminosity in later 2019. Later studies suggested that [occluding dust](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/hubble-finds-that-betelgeuses-mysterious-dimming-is-due-to-a-traumatic-outburst) may be the most likely culprit for the dimming and the star is unlikely to go supernova [anytime soon](https://news.sky.com/story/scientists-figure-out-when-red-supergiant-betelgeuse-will-go-supernova-12105347). (see a [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/) about it)\nThe rate of supernovae per century in the Milky Way Galaxy is not well constrained, being frequently estimated between 1 and 10 SNe/century (see a list of estimates in [Dragicevich et al., 1999](https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/302/4/693/1013355) and [Adams et al., 2013](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/778/2/164)), but a recent estimate is of SNe/century by Adams et al. (2013). Most of these may be core-collapse supernovae, happening in the thin disk, and potentially obscured in the visible by gas and dust, but still observable in other parts of the spectrum, by gravitational waves or by neutrinos.\nThe observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy with the current [multi-message astronomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-messenger_astronomy) technology could hugely improve our understanding of supernovae.\nWill we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?\n--- \nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the observation of a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050.\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:48.903Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T02:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7400/us-durable-goods-orders-september-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.\nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-02/28/2021&amp;name=&amp;countries=us&amp;eventtypes=&amp;tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week4)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021?\nThis question will resolve as the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for September 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:54.099Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-15T20:23:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-31T20:23:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: \n“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” \nBeisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). \n[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. \nWhat will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:15:59.701Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 20,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T02:34:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-02T02:34:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:05.028Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will PHP die?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:10.642Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 104,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:15.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:21.218Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 179,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A recent [provocative paper](http://journalofastrobiology.com/MarsGaleCraterLife.html) by a quite reputable set of astrobiologists and others has claimed that in Gale crater on Mars, \nspecimens resembling terrestrial algae, lichens, microbial mats, stro-matolites, ooids, tubular-shaped formations, and mineralized fossils of metazoans and calcium-carbonate encrusted cyanobacteria were observed and tentatively identified.\nbut of course\nThat some or most of these specimens may be abiotic, cannot be ruled out.\nThis would, of course, be pretty monumental if true. We'll ask whether it will turn out that:\n\"The tentative claims of the 2020 Joseph et al. paper are basically correct and a significant fraction of the features identified there were, in fact, fossils of life on Mars.\" \nThis question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is &gt; 95% or &lt; 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:26.950Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 213,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:32.261Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 104,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Reddit [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reddit)\nan American social news aggregation, web content rating, and discussion website.\nA host of Reddit alternative websites have been created, primarily as a response to perceived overreach of censorship on Reddit (especially of right wing points of view). \nThis question asks:\nWill any of the reddit alternatives listed below be more popular than Reddit in January 2026, as measured by [Alexa Traffic Rank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank)?\nThe list of alternatives considered here have been curated from [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/hi97fz/list_of_active_reddit_alternatives_v5/) from the subreddit /r/RedditAlternatives. They are as follows:\n---[minds](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/minds.com) - [minds.com](http://minds.com) \n---[voat](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/voat.co) - [voat.co](http://voat.co) \n---[steemit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com) - [steemit.com](http://steemit.com) \n---[papaly](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/papaly.com) - [papaly.com](http://papaly.com) \n---[saidit](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/saidit.net) - [saidit.net](http://saidit.net) \n---[notabug](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/notabug.io) - [notabug.io](http://notabug.io) \n---[snapzu](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/snapzu.com) - [snapzu.com](http://snapzu.com) \n---[ruqqus](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ruqqus.com) - [ruqqus.com](http://ruqqus.com) \nFor reference, Reddit is [currently ranked](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/reddit.com) 20th on the internet, as of July 23, 2020.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:38.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:43.645Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Trump flee the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Anthony [wrote](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/#comment-45259),\nI'm updating to a significant probability [of Trump serving time in jail or prison] because (a) he's now leaving office; (b) it seems very plausible that he's broken a lot of laws that can be prosecuted at the state and not just federal level; (c) precedent: Metaculus has historically been surprised by people in the Trump administration going to prison.\nnotany replied,\n@Anthony I think there is high probability that he flees the country. Saudi Arabia or Russia as likely destinations. He could still run TV-shows and stay active in the U.S. and play golf.\nPablo Stafforini replied,\n@notany A question on whether Trump will leave the country would be interesting.\nWill Trump flee the United States?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that Donald Trump has physically resided outside of the United States for at least 365 consecutive days after leaving the nation before 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:48.926Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 183,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was \"disgusted\" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are \"[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).\"\nWhen will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?\nThis question resolves when the letters in question are made public.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:16:59.426Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2149-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Wheat protein](https://www.vitafoodsinsights.com/ingredients/wheat-protein-emerge-healthier-alternative-whey-protein) is currently one of the most popular forms of alternative protein in plant based products, especially plant based meat. Wheat protein has robust texturizing properties for plant based meat as the fibers from gluten development mirror the traditional muscle fibers found in meat. \nHowever, one limitation to the rise of wheat based products is the gluten-free movement and the growing number of people diagnosed with Celiac Disease. As wheat is [one of more common allergens](https://www.foodallergy.org/living-food-allergies/food-allergy-essentials/common-allergens), and must be recorded on food packaging labels, the rise of wheat texturized meat could deter some consumers from adopting the alternative protein trend.\nScientists believe that by [altering the genetic code of products like wheat](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1541-4337.12288), they could make a less allergenic form of wheat. Using CRISPR based technology to strip the allergenic proteins away from the plant’s DNA, scientists could potentially de-allergize gluten.\nHortense Dodo, founder of IngateyGen, a food tech company based in North Carolina, [comments that](https://www.verywellhealth.com/engineering-allergy-free-wheat-peanuts-5104835),\n“Early efforts to genetically modify allergenic crops used a technology called RNA Interference (RNAi). This technique requires scientists to splice a foreign piece of RNA—from another plant, for instance—into the genetic code they are trying to modify…. Plants that are edited using CRISPR may also be approved quicker than those using older RNAi technology. “[CRISPR] is a more powerful, more precise technology,\" Dodo says. \"In terms of regulation, it is much easier to get your product to the market in the U.S.\"\nWill wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication or consumer product demonstrates a process that successfully produces de-allergenized wheat. The wheat that is produced must have &lt; 10% of typical wheat content of one these allergens: albumin, globulin, gliadin or gluten, and show a statistically significant reduced or prevented immunological response. The end-product must be suitable for human consumption (though not necessarily approved for human consumption), and the crop may be of any species. This process might involve treating crop post-harvest, or genetically modifying relevant crops. The relevant publication must be first available by 2030-01-01, though it may be published at any date.\nRelevant studies must be sufficiently convincing (either showing that the chemical composition reduces the allergen concentration to tolerable levels, or by producing significant results in large-scale human trials). In case of ambiguity, admins may consult the relevant alt-meat [resolution council]().\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:04.676Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T22:34:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:34:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.\nIn 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&amp;s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&amp;sy=1980&amp;ey=2020&amp;ssm=0&amp;scsm=1&amp;scc=0&amp;ssd=1&amp;ssc=0&amp;sic=0&amp;sort=country&amp;ds=.&amp;br=1).\nWill India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?\nResolution will be based on the [Federal Reserve Economic Data series NAEXKP01INQ657S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=NAEXKP01INQ657S,), which shows seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth in India's GDP at constant 2015 prices. The question will resolve positive if all three data points for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2021 are positive. It will resolve negative otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:10.000Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 161,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-30T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/). \nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting. \nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:15.227Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 273,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIn 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?\nThis resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nSee also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:20.532Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 174,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.\nIn 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.\nQuestion: When will the JWST be launched?\nThis resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) through [any other mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch). The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called \"JWST\", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for &gt;90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.\n[This closed binary question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/613/will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020/) asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.\n[This still open question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/) asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:25.912Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 233,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-17T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-08-14T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social &amp; diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:31.232Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 192,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Sabaton release their tenth album?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7204/tenth-sabaton-album/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Swedish heavy metal band Sabaton has released many albums featuring historical themes since their formation in 1999, most recently The Great War, which covers events that happened during the First World War. They recently announced that they were heading back into the studio to record their next album, which is arguably their tenth album after these previous releases:\n1--Metalizer (2002, released 2007) \n2--Primo Victoria (2005) \n3--Attero Dominatus (2006) \n4--The Art of War (2008) \n5--Coat of Arms (2010) \n6--Carolus Rex (2012) \n7--Heroes (2014) \n8--The Last Stand (2016) \n9--The Great War (2019) \nWhen will Sabaton release their tenth album?\nThis resolves to the date that Sabaton's next new album is released; a new album is any album that contains at least 7 songs originally performed by Sabaton that were not released prior to 2021. This means that the song Livgardet / The Royal Guard would count if it is also on the album, since it was released as a single in 2021, but the song Defense of Moscow would not, since it is a cover of a song originally performed by Radio Tapok.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:42.169Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 56,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-06T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:48.344Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 366,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:53.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7097/family-planning-charity-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently [called for co-founders to create a family planning charity](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wx6Xw63yJt67YKdzh/why-start-a-family-planning-charity-founders-needed-1). Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program?\nPast charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html)\nWill Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?\nResolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities, as decided by Metaculus admins/moderators.\nExamples of \"family planning\" related activities might be\": supporting mothers during pregnancy or childbirth, giving information about the pros and cons of having a child, sex-education, access to contraceptives, etc. Per [Charity Entrepeneurship's post](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wx6Xw63yJt67YKdzh/why-start-a-family-planning-charity-founders-needed-1), such a charity would most-likely focus on access to contraceptives after childbirth.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:17:59.425Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Lunar Module](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module) flown on [Apollo 10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_10) is the only flown lunar module which didn't end up crashing into the Moon or burning up in Earth's atmosphere.\nAfter 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module came within 8.4 nautical miles of the lunar surface, the ascent engine performed a burn to depletion which sent the craft into interplanetary space and the vehicle is currently in a heliocentric orbit. The location of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module is unknown as of May 2019, but efforts are underway to find it. \nAs a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit. \nThis question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:04.667Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).\nHowever, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).\nHow will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?\nThe question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) \nThis question will resolve specifically according to the \"% change 2019-2020\" for the row \"Total new STI diagnoses - total\". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.\nIf this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:09.874Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T09:06:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-01T10:06:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:15.109Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7002/lowest-us-msrp-of-2030-tesla/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Tesla has been aggressive in their moves to build lower priced vehicles. This question is meant to estimate just how far this may go by 2030.\nWhat will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the lowest [MSRP](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_price) of a street legal, 4 wheel, enclosed vehicle,capable of carrying at least 2 people sold in the US by Tesla as a new, 2030 vehicle in terms of 2021 dollars. Inflation adjustment should be handled by BLS CPI inflation calculator found [here](https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm)\nParticipants should post links to official [Tesla Motors](http://tesla.com) that mention MSRP for judge's consideration. Judge's are only under obligation to identify the lowest MSRP among links posted here.\nNote: if the vehicle requires a subscription service to be operated the judges may impute a cash equivalent MSRP using their best judgment. However, the vehicle must be available for dedicated use by the buyer. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:20.391Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-04-09T02:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-02-15T03:57:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:25.819Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:31.256Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:36.493Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:41.793Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 212,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled before inauguration day 2025, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:46.986Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 480,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to pigs](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include H1N1, or the Swine Flu, and the Nipah Virus, both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. Global deaths for humans who contracted H1N1 range between 100,000 and 600,000, and over a million pigs have been killed since the discovery of Nipah Virus for their ability to spread the virus to people, where the case fatality rate was recorded between 40-70%.\nHow many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of pigs, hogs, or swine reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of pigs, hogs and swine that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe pigs, hogs, or swine must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:52.353Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 81,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:18:57.727Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 172,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:03.117Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:09.381Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:20.013Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 180,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Autonomous vehicles and virtual/augmented reality are slated for major advances and potential widespread adoption over the next 20 years. Which of these will come true first:\n1) 10 million fully autonomous vehicles on the road. (We'll use the definition from an earlier questions: available in at least two US states, and can autonomously carry its passenger between two generic drivable destinations that are 20-100 km apart via public roads in those states?) \n2) A reasonably approximated 1 million in-use copies of an augmented reality game that overlays items/people on actual roads during driving that are intended for the driver to see. It need not be Grant Theft Auto (though it might!), but the overlay should not be just a practical, useful informational overlay.\nOption 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make them much less so. \nNote that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (\"Pokemon auto\"), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.\nThe question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:25.451Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-07-15T15:16:32Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if its valuation by market capitalization is greater than all other valuations by the end of the year. Valuation by market capitalization will be calculated using the last publicly traded stock price at closing on opening day and the total number of shares. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:30.814Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:36.192Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-03-04T15:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-02-03T15:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:41.580Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) is gaining widespread adoption in the IT industry and is seen as a replacement for RSA, which has been the standard for public key cryptography for decades.\n5 years ago, [industry experts suggested that the Discrete Logarithm Problem that RSA relies upon, may be solved within \"4-5 years\"](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/517781/math-advances-raise-the-prospect-of-an-internet-security-crisis/). This may mean that RSA will be broken imminently, or it may remain secure well into the future.\nNeither ECC nor RSA are particularly quantum resistant. However, 2048-bit RSA requires a larger number of qubits than 256-bit ECC, [4098 qubits and 2330 qubits respectively](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752), to break using currently known algorithms (Shor's Algorithm). So it stands to reason that if RSA is not broken by conventional computers before a 2330 qubit quantum computer can be made practical, which some estimate to be ~10 years from now, ECC will be broken and RSA may be able to remain secure, at least temporarily.\nThe question contemplates two possible eventualities:\nA) The [CA/Browser Forum](https://cabforum.org/) announces the end of trust of digital certificates using 2048-bit RSA.\nB) NIST/FIPS, ANSI, or other comparable standards organization recommends discontinuance of 256-bit ECC due to credible reports of the algorithm being rendered insecure.\nQuestion resolves positively if (A) occurs before both (B) and the resolution date (4/29/30); resolves negative if (B) occurs before both (A) and the resolution date; resolves ambiguous otherwise.\nNote: Discontinuance of specific ECC curves such as P-256 or secp256r1, as an example, will not necessarily cause negative resolution because a problem might be found in the specific curve parameters and not the ECC algorithm itself. This is also the reason the CA/Browser Forum is not used for negative resolution as only a few specific curves are widely supported in digital certificates.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:47.144Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 123,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-04-30T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-04-30T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "US farmers received roughly $10B in subisides in 2020, according data from [EWG's Farm Subsidy Database](https://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=total&amp;yr=2020). A majority of this is spent on commodity subsidies, which subsidise the production of crops such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. \nAs many subsidized crops are inputs to intensive animal farming, these often serve as implicit subsidies to the industry ([Starmer, 2006](https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/37162/)). In addition, livestock production is commonly directly subsidized. In 2020, livestock producers received direct subsidies amounting to roughly $330M, according to [EWG data](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock). Subsidies for incumbent intensive animal protein production inhibit the rate at which such approaches can be substituted by cleaner alternative proteins [(Jiang et al., 2020)](https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/9/9/1227).\nHow much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period, in USD?\nThis question resolves as the yearly average of the total of the value of the livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs in 2021 and 2022, as reported in [EWG database](https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&amp;progcode=livestock). Values are to be given in nominal USD.\nFigures for previous years are as follows:\n---2015 $1,320,274,264 \n---2016 $449,041,696 \n---2017 $447,720,097 \n---2018 $677,555,047 \n---2019 $673,865,626 \n---2020 $326,246,325 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:52.352Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T23:31:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-03-31T23:31:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:19:57.617Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:03.846Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:09.064Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:14.397Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.\nWhat will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?\nWhen the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.\nAs of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.\nIf the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:19.998Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-01T07:43:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:43:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Charity Entrepreneurship is a meta-charity dedicated to creating other charities. Recently, animal welfare charities have been one of their major focuses. Past charities created by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/charity-ideas.html#). \nAnimal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluating Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\".\nWill any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:25.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:30.551Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. A [Weath Tax](https://berniesanders.com/issues/tax-extreme-wealth/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of a Wealth Tax. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will a Wealth Tax be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered a Wealth Tax if it:\n1) Could theoretically be applied to at least one person living in the US at the time of passage.\n2) The amount paid is based on a formula related to a person's net-worth, not their income (with some assets possibly being excluded)\n3) Has a rate of at least 0.13% (the lowest rate in Switzerland).\n4) Includes (at a mininum) privately held companies and stock in public corporations as a basis for the wealth tax.\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:35.816Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 181,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-06-03T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:41.284Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 279,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:20:57.697Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:03.352Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 141,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:08.749Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:13.957Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 170,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:19.459Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:24.697Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 329,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&amp;=rus&amp;=chn&amp;=nga&amp;=afg&amp;=jpn&amp;=srb&amp;=dnk&amp;=fra;;;;&amp;marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&amp;scaleType=linear&amp;spaceRef:null;;;&amp;chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:30.396Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:35.602Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:40.926Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 150,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1),\nSputnik 1 was the first artificial Earth satellite. It was launched into an elliptical low Earth orbit by the USSR on 4 October 1957 as part of the Soviet space program. It orbited for three weeks before its batteries died and then orbited silently for two months before it fell back into the atmosphere on the 4th January 1958.\n[...]\nThe satellite's unanticipated success precipitated the American Sputnik crisis and triggered the Space Race, part of the Cold War. The launch was the beginning of a new era of political, military, technological and scientific developments.\nAn \"AI Sputnik moment\" would, by contrast, be a sudden understanding by the general public that artificial intelligence is worth taking extremely seriously, perhaps triggering a [similar AI arms race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence_arms_race).\nWill there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050?\nThere is said to be an \"AI Sputnik moment\" if ANY of the following come true before 2050,\n--- \nA major technology company (&gt;50 billion dollar market cap, in 2021 US dollars, right before the announcement) announces the creation of an AI system. Upon the announcement, their stock price skyrockets by over 100% compared to its previous value within 7 days, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock price is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nNews of an AI development triggers the head of government of the top 2 nations by GDP nominal to give a public speech regarding the ramifications of this particular AI development, within two weeks of the initial news reports.\n--- \nThe Nasdaq Composite (which is currently heavily weighted towards companies in the information technology sector) rises over 30% in the course of a single week, and numerous highly credible media reports claim that this rise in stock prices is likely a result of the AI development.\n--- \nThe [Google Trends monitor for artificial intelligence](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F0mkz) shows that interest in artificial intelligence rises by over 100% relative to of its previous value, compared to the week prior (using the resolution at 12 months, as currently displayed by the Google Trends widget). If Google Trends changes their functionality or methodology dramatically (as determined by Metaculus admins), then this condition can no longer trigger a positive resolution.\n--- \nPractically all reliable media outlets are referring to an AI development as an AI Sputnik moment, as referring to the historical Sputnik 1 satellite.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:46.152Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:51.330Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 254,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;60% in a n&gt;500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate &gt;75% in a n&gt;500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:21:56.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 207,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).\nGE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.\nNote that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.\nWill General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:02.189Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 139,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-09-18T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-09-18T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \"&gt;2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:07.462Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:13.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal. \nRecently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article, \nAs the WIMP search kept coming up empty, XENON scientists realized several years ago that they could use their experiment to search for other kinds of unknown particles that might pass through the detector: particles that bang into an electron rather than a xenon nucleus.\nIn their new analysis, the physicists examined electronic recoils in the first year’s worth of XENON1T data. They expected to see roughly 232 of these recoils, caused by known sources of background contamination. But the experiment saw 285 — a surplus of 53 that signifies an unaccounted-for source.\nThere are two interesting hypotheses to explain these excesses, one boring one, and then of course \"other.\" The interesting ones are axions from the Sun, and a large neutrino magnetic moment. The boring one is contamination by tritium. According again to the article:\nLuckily the physics community won’t have to wait long for answers; XENON1T’s successor, the XENONnT experiment — which will monitor for recoils in 8.3 metric tons of xenon — is on track to begin data collection later this year. So we ask:\nWill the XENON1T or successor experiment soon announce detection of either type of physics beyond the standard model? \nResolution is positive if by the end of 2022, a paper or preprint is published including results by XENON1T (likely in combination with additional results from XENONnT or elsewhere) claiming or better evidence for either solar axions or a large neutrino magnetic moment. Resolution is negative otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:18.707Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:24.438Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 238,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Stripe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stripe_(company)) is an American financial services and SaaS company headquartered in San Francisco, California, United States.\nOn October 10th, 2020, Paul Graham Tweeted:\nI'm going to risk calling it. The feeling of deja vu is too strong. Stripe is the next Google.\nSomeone asked him to clarify his prediction: \"By market cap or evil?\", and Paul Graham responded:\nBy market cap, although when they're sufficiently big they will automatically be called evil, just as Google is.\nPaul Graham did not indicate the time-frame within which he expects this to happen, but let's say that if his prediction were correct, they'd reach a Google-level valuation by 2027.\nWill Stripe reach a valuation of $1tr before 2027?\nThis question resolves positively if credible financial media sources indicate that Stripe achieved a $1tr valuation (in 2020 USD) before the end of day, 2026-12-31.\nThe valuation will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used CPI for the US. In case Stripe is acquired before this question resolves positively, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:29.710Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-02-19T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:35.375Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 123,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7161/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 is one measure of the overall burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. According to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE data, of 4 May 2021 there are 574,679 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.\nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cumulative deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. The number of cumulative deaths at the end of the year will be computed by adding the cumulative number of deaths across states. This data, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than 2022-01-09.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:40.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-05T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-18T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-09T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.\nIt was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).\nIt was then scheduled for 30 April 2021 to 2 May 2021, but was postponed again (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/)).\nWill EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?\nThe question resolves negatively if the EA Global London 2021 takes place in the originally scheduled physical location (London UK) at the scheduled dates (29-31 October 2021).\nThis question resolves positively if the event is cancelled or the dates are moved, or if the venue is moved online or away from London.\nThis question will close retroactively to 48 hours before the date of any public announcement of rescheduling, if that occurs.\nNote that if the location is changed but stays within London, the question will resolve negatively. Anywhere within London is fine, even if not The Brewery.\nNote that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to be cited as a reason for any changes to the event. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:46.033Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-28T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-02T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recently racial tensions in South Africa have been high. \nThere is an upcoming land expropriation vote which will allow the government to [take land without compensation](https://www.news24.com/Columnists/GuestColumn/land-expropriation-without-compensation-what-does-it-mean-20180304-5). This is an attempt to redistribute land due to [unequal land ownership](https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/sas-land-audit-makes-case-for-land-tax-20180204-2) as well as find productive land. Since the majority of privately owned land is owned by white groups this policy has sparked massive debate. [Some think](https://qz.com/1218309/south-africa-to-take-land-without-compensation-as-zimbabwe-backtracks-on-seizing-white-farms/) this will hurt agricultural production and hurt the economy of the country.\nThis, in addition to the high rate of [farm attacks in South Africa](https://africacheck.org/factsheets/factsheet-statistics-farm-attacks-murders-sa/) has led to conservative [white groups gearing up for a fight](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NyVYaI_V6w), [some have been preparing for a revolution even earlier](https://suidlanders.org/).\nWill there be more than 100 violent deaths of white insurgents before 2023, within a period of 12 months, as reported by a verifiable news outlet? \nThe answer is meant to be indicative of actual armed conflict, as a proxy to the question: will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:51.391Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 196,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-05-26T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-08-01T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:22:56.684Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6448/two-states-ban-human-driven-vehicles/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It is objectively demonstrated that humans are not very good or very safe drivers. [According to the NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/2019-fatality-data-traffic-deaths-2020-q2-projections), there were 36,096 deaths due to motor vehicle crashes in the USA in 2019. The vast majority of fatality-causing crashes were substantially attributable to human driver error.\nFurther, common human driving heuristics and competency levels significantly limit the level of efficiency that can be achieved on the roadway. In particular, [human driven traffic does not interact with itself optimally](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170510095703.htm), and for safety purposes, legal speed limits are artificially capped well below the level of vehicle performance. There is some consideration that autonomous vehicles may be able to safely travel [much faster](https://www.inverse.com/article/28110-self-driving-car-speed-future). \nFor these reasons and more, it is plausible that at some point, humans will be generally or entirely legally disallowed from driving a car on public roads.\nWhen will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads?\nThis question will resolve when at least two US states concurrently have in place a ban of most or all human driving on public roads. \nThe ban must be a matter of law or equivalent state authority or the question will not resolve.\nA federal ban qualifies the same as if two US states outlaw human driving.\nQualifying states are the current 50 US states, or future equivalents, plus any additional future states with equivalent status of any of the present 50 states. \nHuman driving is considered to be the operation of a car or motorcycle by a human where the human substantially directs the vehicle's motion by any means that involve a human brain substantially carrying out the processing required for meaningful direction of the vehicle's motion.\nAlthough the question implies that AI would supplant human driving in the event of such a ban, this is not necessary for a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:01.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:07.486Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 148,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since October 31 2000, the date [Soyuz TM-31](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz_TM-31) lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome carrying the members of [Expedition 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expedition_1), the first long-duration ISS crew, humanity has maintained a permanent off-Earth presence for more than 19 years.\nThis question asks: Will humanity maintain an off-Earth presence continuously until 1 January 2050?\nFor a positive resolution, at least one living and conscious biological human must be physically located at some point beyond 100km altitude above Earth's mean sea level at all times continuously until 1 January 2050. This could include persons aboard spacecraft and space stations, as well as persons on any astronomical object other than Earth (e.g. Moon or Mars explorers / settlers). \nIf the number of living and conscious biological humans off-Earth drops to zero at any time before 1 January 2050, this question resolves negatively. [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s, artificial intelligence systems, humans in suspended animation or cryopreservation, and all other instances of either wholly non-biological or non-conscious humans will not count for the purposes of this question. Humans who are merely sleeping will be considered conscious for the purposes of this question.\nHowever, biological humans with some degree of cybernetic augmentation ([brain implants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_implant), artificial limbs or organs, etc) will suffice, so long as they could still reproduce with un-augmented humans.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:13.117Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 285,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:18.497Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 191,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:24.362Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 962,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:29.743Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 232,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:35.017Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7027/total-refugee-admissions-2021-24/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the fiscal year 2021, Trump lowered the [global cap on refugee admissions to 15,000](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2021/2/4/22266410/biden-refugee-executive-order?utm_source=facebook&amp;utm_content=voxdotcom&amp;utm_campaign=vox.social&amp;utm_medium=social). During his campaign, Biden promised to [raise refugee admissions to at least 125,000 per year](https://web.archive.org/web/20210413174030/https://joebiden.com/immigration/), starting in the 2022 fiscal year. Following his election, Biden proposed raising the refugee cap for the remainder of the 2021 fiscal year to 62,500; however, on April 15th, he issued a presidential determination [maintaining the refugee cap at 15,000](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/biden-keeps-us-refugee-cap-15000-rather-than-raise-it-official-2021-04-16/) and only changing regional allocations. Following criticism, the Biden administration issued a statement later that day promising a [final, increased refugee cap by May 15th](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/16/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-the-emergency-presidential-determination-on-refugee-admissions-for-fiscal-year-2021/).\nThe number of refugees admitted during the last few presidential terms are 118,063 from 2016-2020, 294,840 from 2012-2016, 262,627 from 2008-2012, and 203,509 from 2004-2008.\nHow many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024?\nResolution will be by the first [Refugee Processing Center admissions and arrivals report](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) that contains data for every month in 2024.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:40.233Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-08-21T22:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7106/carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen) is currently the strongest chess player in the world and has maintained the [#1 ranking spot](https://ratings.fide.com/top_files.phtml?id=1503014) since 2011. In the most recent World Championship in London 2018 he defeated [Fabiano Caruana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabiano_Caruana) in tie-breaks after 12 draws.\n[Ian Nepomniachtchi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Nepomniachtchi) won the right to play Carlsen by winning the [2020-21 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2020%E2%80%9321). Ian Nepomniachtchi is the current world #3 and holds a positive head-to-head against Magnus Carlsen +4 -1 =6. (Although several of his wins came when they were both very young).\nThe [expected format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2021) is that Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniachtchi will play a best-of 14 match + tiebreaks in Dubai at Expo 2020 (in December 2021) although this question does not depend on when the match takes place.\nWill Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?\nThis question resolves positive if Magnus Carlsen wins the next World Championship match (regardless of challenger or location in the event of delays). It also resolves positive if he retains the crown because of the challenger defaulting in some way. This question resolves negative if Magnus Carlsen loses the next World Championship match.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.18000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:45.688Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-28T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-23T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-17T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:51.001Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question simply asks:\nWhen will the first baby be born away from Earth?\nThe question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at &gt;2120.\nSimilar questions:\n---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:23:56.475Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2119-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. \nThere have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. \nThe above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).\nWill Median Bay Area House Prices decline by &gt;= 5% in 2021?\nThis question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for \"S.F. Bay Area\" is &lt;= $1.045mm\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:01.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Founded in 2018, [50by40](https://50by40.org/about-us/vision-and-mission) is an organisation with the mission to achieve \nA 50% reduction in the global production and consumption of farmed animal products by 2040, with the remaining production systems being environmentally and socially sustainable, regenerative and humane, achieved via a Just Transition of the farming system. \nThis question asks specifically about global meat production. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production) claims global meat production in 2018 was 342.42 million tons, a 46.68% increase since 2000. A 50% reduction from this level would result in global meat production declining to 171.21 million tons, a level last seen in 1988.\nWill there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040?\nThis resolves positively if global meat production as per OurWorldInData is below 50% of its 2018 level (i.e., is 171.21 million tons or lower) in any year between 2019 and 2040 (inclusive). If OurWorldInData ceases publishing this data by this date, admins can choose a credible alternative source for resolution.\n14 June 2021 edit: Cultivated meat, which is produced from [in vitro cell culture of animal cells rather than from the slaughter of livestock](https://gfi.org/science/the-science-of-cultivated-meat/), does not count toward the overall global meat production figure. Only meat coming from slaughtered animals will count, as is currently the case with Our World's in Data figure of 340M tons as of 2018. Since this 340M tons figure does not include fish/seafood, data from [FAOSTAT as tracked by OWID](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/seafood-and-fish-production-thousand-tonnes?country=~OWID_WRL) — in this case, 155M tons of seafood/fish (2013 figure) — will be added to the meat figure. Again, cultivated fish/seafood does not count. This question will not resolve until 2040 data is available for both meat and fish/seafood production.\nIf OWID revises their 2018 estimate at any point, or an alternative source is to be used, that source's most up-to-date 2018 value should be used where possible to ensure an appropriate comparison. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:07.267Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2042-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A key uncertainty is when the next monthly peak in COVID-19 deaths will occur in Virginia so as to inform implementation of mitigation measures and public health preparedness. The monthly peak between May 2020 and March 2021 occurred in January 2021, when 1,432 new confirmed+probable deaths were reported.\nIn Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths?\nPlease note that for the purposes of this question, each month corresponds to a number between 1 and 11:\n---May 2021: 1 \n---June 2021: 2 \n---July 2021: 3 \n---August 2021: 4 \n---September 2021: 5 \n---October 2021: 6 \n---November 2021: 7 \n---December 2021: 8 \n---January 2022: 9 \n---February 2022: 10 \n---March 2022: 11 \nThis question resolves on the basis of [COVID-19 case data](https://data.virginia.gov/Government/VDH-COVID-19-PublicUseDataset-Cases/bre9-aqqr) provided by VDH.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:12.524Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-04-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&amp;IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:18.690Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 440,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:24.633Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 367,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-02T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7055/prop-of-qsr-with-cultivated-meat-in-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWhat proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026?\nThis question resolves as the proportion of top Quick Service Restaurants that offer at least one cultivated meat product in at least some of their stores in the calendar year 2026.\nFor the purpose of this question, Top Quick Service Restaurants include the following:\nSubway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, Hardee's, Chick-fil-A, Chipotle, Little Caesars\nCompanies need to offer cultivated meat products for sale to the general public in at least one location at least once in 2026. In case a listed QSRs is no longer in business, it is removed from the list, and therefore should not influence the computed proportion.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:29.868Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 68,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-04-22T23:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-02T00:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:35.125Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n--- \n[Will a Millenium Prize problem be solved by 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)\n--- \n[When will the next Millenium Prize problem be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)\nThe [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to . The Riemann zeta function also has zeroes at the strictly negative even integers , which are by definition its trivial zeroes. The hypothesis would therefore be correct if all zeroes of the Riemann zeta function other than these trivial zeroes had real part equal to .\nThe conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bounds on a wide range of estimates in analytic number theory, starting from the tight asymptotic for the prime counting function . It has now become standard practice to prove theorems of analytic number theory conditional on the Riemann hypothesis or some of its closely related generalizations.\nWill the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?\nThis question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:40.436Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:45.908Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 280,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [USNI News reporting](https://news.usni.org/2019/06/05/document-trends-in-active-duty-military-deaths) on the May 20, 2019 Congressional Research Service report:\nSince 2006—five years after the start of major combat operations in Afghanistan and three years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq—a total of 16,652 active-duty personnel and mobilized reservists have died while serving in the U.S. Armed Forces. Seventy-three percent of these casualties occurred under circumstances unrelated to war, a category classified in this report as Non-Overseas Contingency Operations, or Non-OCO. Twenty-seven percent have died while serving in OCO operations—primarily within the territory of Iraq and Afghanistan—during periods of active combat operations. OCO operations related to Afghanistan primarily include Enduring Freedom and Freedom’s Sentinel. For Iraq, OCO operations include Iraqi Freedom, New Dawn, and Inherent Resolve. Figure 1 summarizes all service deaths since 2006.\nWill US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?\nThis question resolves on the basis of data published by the Congressional Research Service.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:51.484Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-09-24T21:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-07-01T21:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:24:57.202Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 447,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-08T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&amp;state$time$value=2006&amp;delay:121.71612903225821;&amp;entities$;&amp;marker$select@;&amp;opacitySelectDim:0.3&amp;axis_x$use=indicator&amp;which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&amp;scaleType=log&amp;zoomedMin=282&amp;zoomedMax=119849&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;axis_y$use=indicator&amp;which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&amp;scaleType=linear&amp;zoomedMin=0&amp;zoomedMax=93&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;size$use=indicator&amp;which=population_total&amp;extent@:0.022083333333333333&amp;:0.4083333333333333;&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;color$use=property&amp;which=world_6region;;;&amp;ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:02.514Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 236,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the James Webb telescope be launched?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7298/james-webb-telescope-launch-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/)\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope),\nDevelopment began in 1996 for a launch that was initially planned for 2007 and a 500-million-dollar budget, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns, and underwent a major redesign in 2005. The JWST's construction was completed in late 2016, after which its extensive testing phase began. In March 2018, NASA further delayed the launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment. Launch was delayed again in June 2018 following recommendations from an independent review board. Work on integration and testing of the telescope was suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adding further delays. Work has resumed, but NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to October 31, 2021.\n[Now](https://www.engadget.com/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-launch-delay-181128125.html),\nNASA had been working toward an October 31st launch date for the James Webb Space Telescope, but it's having to delay the science observatory's trip into space once again. Thankfully, the launch might take place just a few weeks later, in November or early December. A rescheduled date is unlikely to be confirmed until later this summer or perhaps in the fall.\nXKCD [provided an extrapolated launch date of around 2026](https://xkcd.com/2014/), given previous launch delays.\nWhen will the James Webb telescope be launched?\nThis question resolves on the date during which the first component of the James Webb telescope is first launched upwards towards (whether or not the telescope functions as intended, or indeed even lasts more than one second after launch without blowing up), as described by reliable media.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:07.780Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-04T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-20T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.\nSuppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.\nWhat is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?\n--- \nDrugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 \n--- \nNon-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:13.476Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-22T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2071-01-01T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7211/us-conclude-covid-lab-leak-by-june-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Previously, we had [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/) about the COVID-19 lab leak theory, which many considered to have improper resolution criteria. This question is a less ambiguous version, slated to resolve on June 1st, 2022.\nWill any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that any official body of the US federal government concludes, via an official report published or leaked to the public, that the origin of the COVID-19 coronavirus involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province, before June 1st 2022. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. In case at least two moderators declare that there exists considerable ambiguity about whether the US government indeed concluded that COVID-19 originated in a lab, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor the purpose of this question, the federal government is said to conclude a fact if they (1) take it as a given in one of their official reports (2) state that it is \"likely\", \"probable\", \"almost certain\", or some other close synonym of those terms (3) make some other determination as to the likelihood of the the fact, indicating that they believe there is a greater than 50% chance that the fact is true. \nIn case there is a dispute over whether a word used by the government counts as a close synonym of \"probable\", a vote will be taken in the comment section below on the question (and which must be clarified, is to be determined purely on the basis of whether the word counts as a close synonym, NOT whether the question should resolve positively or negatively).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:19.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 398,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-25T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:24.684Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7061/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-eggs-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alternative protein end products, which include things like plant-based meat and dairy, or cultured meat, are gaining increasing popularity amongst US consumers. As demand grows, producers can reach into areas like frozen ready-to-go meals, eggs, ready-to-drink beverages, ice cream, and a variety of other frequently purchased goods to make plant-based alternatives. \nData from SPINS summarized by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based eggs totaled $27M in 2020([Good Food Institute, 2021](https://gfi.org/marketresearch/#eggs)). This is up from $10M in 2019, and $3M in 2018.\nWhat will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based eggs, as estimated by credible consumer data providers such as [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/), or other data used by credible industry observers, such as the Plant Based Food Association or the Good Food Institute.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if available data is substantially different in 2022 compared with 2020. Available data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3M in 2018, $10M in 2019, and $27M in 2020, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 80%.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:29.928Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T23:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T23:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This star (aka \"Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).\nMost attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.\nNow I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says \"yeah, of course that's what it was!\", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?\nFrom [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03505.pdf) here's a good summary of the molecular cloud conjecture:\n7.2. An intervening molecular cloud\nAlternatively, there might be a chance alignment with a localized molecular cloud (as opposed to an overdense filament or sheet).\nThe Clemens &amp; Barvainis (1988) catalog of small molecular clouds was selected optically based on examination of the POSS plates, and was sensitive to clouds smaller than 10′, typically down to ∼1′. Clemens et al. (1991) found that the mean radius of these clouds was 0.35 pc. The clouds in this catalog cluster near the Galactic plane presumably both because clouds are intrinsically more common there and because they are easier to identify in silhouette against the large number of stars there.\nA quiescent Bok globule 0.1 pc ≈20,000 au across and midway between Earth and Boyajian’s Star would have almost certainly escaped detection. It would have a radius of 40\", and examination of the POSS plates for Boyajian’s Star confirms that the star counts are too low in this region to clearly reveal such a small object, especially if some of the stars in the image were foreground to it and the globule were not spherical. Such high-latitude clouds exist: Getman et al. (2008) describe the \"mysterious” high Galactic latitude cloud CG12, which sits 200 pc above the plane at a distance of 550 pc (about the same distance as Boyajian’s Star).\nIn this case, the secular dimming would be naturally explained by the changing line of sight to Boyajian’s Star through the cloud’s slowly varying radial column density profile,and the dips would then be explained by small-scale (sub-au) structure within the cloud.\nThis question resolves when a consensus is achieved, and it will retroactively close one year prior to the resolution date. From the earlier questions about this star's consensus explanation:\nWe'll use the following criteria to specify consensus. Let N be the number of refereed published journal papers that:\n--- \nprovide an explanation for the aperiodic dips seen in KIC 8462852, and\n--- \nare cited by at least one published paper, or two preprints, supporting their explanation with additional analysis and/or data, and\n--- \nare cited at least 5 times in total, and\n--- \nare not cited by a published, refereed paper refuting or disputing the given explanation within a year following publication.\nIf N=1 we will consider a consensus to have been reached. If N&gt;1, and if all of the explanations are qualitatively the same, i.e. involving the same essential physics and objects (e.g. \"Comet breakup\"), we will also consider consensus to have been reached. Otherwise, we will consider that consensus has not yet been reached.\nResolution will then be positive if an intervening, galactic molecular cloud / gas cloud / supernova remnant is the explanation. Resolution will be negative if the explanation is anything other than interstellar gas and dust in our line of sight (e.g. anything orbiting the star, or the star's intrinsic variability etc)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:35.800Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:41.113Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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},
{
"title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Proteins are large, complex molecules essential in sustaining life. Nearly every function our body performs—contracting muscles, sensing light, or turning food into energy—can be traced back to one or more proteins and how they move and change. The recipes for those proteins—called genes—are encoded in our DNA.\nWhat any given protein can do depends on its unique 3D structure. For example, antibody proteins that make up our immune systems are ‘Y-shaped’, and are akin to unique hooks. By latching on to viruses and bacteria, antibody proteins are able to detect and tag disease-causing microorganisms for extermination. Similarly, collagen proteins are shaped like cords, which transmit tension between cartilage, ligaments, bones, and skin. \nOther types of proteins include CRISPR and Cas9, which act like scissors and cut and paste DNA; antifreeze proteins, whose 3D structure allows them to bind to ice crystals and prevent organisms from freezing; and ribosomes that act like a programmed assembly line, which help build proteins themselves.\nBut figuring out the 3D shape of a protein purely from its genetic sequence is a complex task that scientists have found challenging for decades. The challenge is that DNA only contains information about the sequence of a protein’s building blocks called amino acid residues, which form long chains. Predicting how those chains will fold into the intricate 3D structure of a protein is what’s known as the “protein folding problem”.\nThe bigger the protein, the more complicated and difficult it is to model because there are more interactions between amino acids to take into account. As noted in [Levinthal’s paradox,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levinthal%27s_paradox) it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.\nThe ability to predict a protein’s shape is useful to scientists because it is fundamental to understanding its role within the body, as well as diagnosing and treating diseases believed to be caused by misfolded proteins, such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Huntington’s and cystic fibrosis.\nAn understanding of protein folding will also assist in protein design, which could unlock a tremendous number of benefits. For example, advances in biodegradable enzymes—which can be enabled by protein design—could help manage pollutants like plastic and oil, helping us break down waste in ways that are more friendly to our environment. In fact, researchers have already begun engineering bacteria to secrete proteins that will make waste biodegradable, and easier to process.\nOver the past five decades, scientists have been able to determine shapes of proteins in labs using experimental techniques like cryo-electron microscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance or X-ray crystallography, but each method depends on a lot of trial and error, which can take years and cost tens of thousands of dollars per structure. This is why biologists are turning to AI methods as an alternative to this long and laborious process for difficult proteins.\n[Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction, or CASP,](http://predictioncenter.org/index.cgi) is a community-wide, worldwide experiment for protein structure prediction taking place every two years since 1994. CASP provides research groups with an opportunity to objectively test their structure prediction methods and delivers an independent assessment of the state of the art in protein structure modeling to the research community and software users.\nEven though the primary goal of CASP is to help advance the methods of identifying protein three-dimensional structure from its amino acid sequence, many view the experiment more as a “world championship” in this field of science. More than 100 research groups from all over the world participate in CASP on a regular basis and it is not uncommon for entire groups to suspend their other research for months while they focus on getting their servers ready for the experiment and on performing the detailed predictions. \nIn the most recent CASP experiment, 98 entries were accepted for 43 protein structures. The entry ranked second correctly solved three of the 43 protein structures, for a success rate of 7%.\nThe entry ranked first, that of [Google DeepMind's algorithm AlphaFold,](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) correctly solved 25 of the 43 protein structures, or 58.1%. [Here](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins) is a non-technical press article on the feat, and [here](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphafold/) is DeepMind's blog post on it.\nThis question asks: Before 2031, will any entry to CASP correctly solve at least 90% of available protein structures?\nThis resolves positive if any entry to CASP achieves at least a score of 90 [mean GDT-TS](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3932189/). GDT-TS is a [global distance test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_distance_test) measure of prediction accuracy ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being perfect. If the CASP stops being run before this is achieved or before 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n(Edited 2020-12-01 to add ambiguous resolution if CASP stops being run.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:46.518Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 338,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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},
{
"title": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. As of 2017, the party was considered the \"largest party in Western Europe\" in terms of party membership, with more than half a million members.\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\n[Sir Keir Rodney Starmer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer) KCB QC MP (born 2 September 1962) is a British politician and former lawyer who has served as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition since 2020. He has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Holborn and St Pancras since 2015. Ideologically, Starmer identifies as a socialist and has been described as being on the soft left within the Labour Party.\nWhen will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?\nThis question will resolve when Starmer either resigns from or is removed from the position of Leader of the Labour Party, or otherwise ceases to hold the office of Leader of the Labour Party. Resolution should cite a press release from the Labour Party, Keir Starmer, or credible press reports in the British media.\nThe resolution date will be the date his leadership actually ceases, rather than the date his resignation is announced, if the resignation does not take effect immediately.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:51.892Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:25:57.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 321,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.\nBut will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).\nWhat will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? \nWe will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. \nResolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.\nInspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:02.585Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-17T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2069-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2074-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6973/nba-raising-the-rim-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world. \nWhilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/team/9-predictions-for-what-your-world-just-might-look-like-in-2025) predicts that the height of the rim will be raised \"beyond the year 2025, but not too far beyond!\". We interpret that to mean 2030.\nWill the NBA raise the rim to 10'6\" (or higher) before 2030?\nResolution will be based on the official [NBA rulebook](https://official.nba.com/rule-no-1-court-dimensions-equipment/). If there is no official NBA rulebook available, we will defer to Wikipedia or any other general news source\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:07.836Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T08:33:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:33:00Z"
},
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},
{
"title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime \"metrics\" one can write down with the requisite properties.\nThere is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy. \nMore specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as \"energy conditions.\" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the \"weak energy condition\" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)\nThese energy conditions are generically violated at the quantum level, because quantum mechanics entails uncertainty in the energy of a system over a very short time period, so must allow very brief negative-energy fluctuations. But macroscopic amounts of negative energy do not appear possible with any particles or fields we know to exist.\nOn the other hand, it is somewhat unclear what fundamentally forbids negative energy. Negative energy particles would be bad news, as they would likely render low-energy particles unstable to decay into positive and negative energy ones – such a universe would not last long. But could we devise some strange substance that has the property, using something like the [Casimir effect](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/physics/Quantum/casimir.html), that takes empty space and removes some energy from it? It sees plausible that negative energy is closely [related to violations of the second law of thermodynamics,](http://inspirehep.net/record/835580?ln=en) which would mean that it is very, very hard to violate. But maybe not impossible. \"Violations\" of the second law (downward movements in entropy) can happen if you [wait long enough,](https://arxiv.org/abs/1108.0417) or if you set up very, very careful initial conditions (see, e.g. [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.03323)) So it does not seem impossible that with a high level of tuning a sample of negative energy could be made, though the author is not at all clear how...\nSo instead we ask:\nWill a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100? \nTo be specific, we'll ask whether &gt; 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:13.233Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 276,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-01-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:18.820Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7113/fully-autonomous-tesla-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In January of 2021, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448?s=20): \"Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.\" Tesla did release earlier this year the beta for what they call [Full Self-Driving Capability](https://www.tesla.com/support/autopilot), which suggests an improvement on the driver assistance system, presumably with less driver input, or even none as Elon Musk suggests in his tweet.\nHowever, Elon Musk is known to make bold statements about the capabilities of the cars his company produces, sometimes bordering on bad faith. According to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/tesla-autopilot-full-self-driving-subscription-early-2021-elon-musk-2020-12), in 2015, he predicted that the company's fully autonomous vehicles would be ready by 2018. In 2016, he said a Tesla would drive itself coast to coast the following year. In early 2019, Musk said he was certain that a Tesla \"will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention - this year.\"\nWill a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?\nFor the definition of fully autonomous cars, we'll be referencing the \"self driving level 5\", as defined by the SAE International: \"the vehicle performs all driving tasks under all conditions. Zero human attention or interaction is required.\" We will allow cars that need human override in extreme circumstances, but we expect less than one override per car in a typical year. Besides being autonomous, the vehicle will have to perform as well as (or better than) a normal car with an average driver.\nElon Musk raised valid concerns about the regulatory environment, which might cause a delay in the adoption of the technology. I believe however that, in the case of a successful development of the required software updates and/or new prototypes, Tesla will provide enough information to the press to allow for the publication of unequivocal articles referencing explicitly the tested unit's compliance with \"self driving level 5\" requirements as defined by the SAE International. The resolution criteria will be the publication of such articles in at least two publications among the following: [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com); [The Economist](https://www.economist.com/); [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com); [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) ; [The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/); [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/).\nAs of April 2021, no such vehicle exists for sale to the general public anywhere in the world. Consequently, no technology available to use by the public until now can alone justify the positive resolution of this question. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:24.561Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As [reported here by Time](http://time.com/5429288/china-chengdu-artificial-moon/), China plans to launch a satellite by 2020 that will illuminate some of its cities by reflecting sunlight.\nThe claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous as the actual Moon (when viewed from an appropriate location) and will provide about a fifth of the light level normally provided by streetlights.\nLet's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China. \nResolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. \"Major Chinese city\" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:29.766Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 125,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-07-21T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-15T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe kea is a species of large parrot in the family Nestoridae found in the forested and alpine regions of the South Island of New Zealand.\nAccording to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, [there are roughly 4,000 live mature Kea parrots in the world](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358).\n\nQuestion and Resolution\n=======================\n\nWill there be fewer than 4,000 live mature Kea parrots, according to [IUCN Red List of Threatened Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/22684831/119243358) at any point in the year 2030?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:35.055Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 45,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) is a major philanthropic foundation focused mainly on on causes associated with the Effective Altruism movement. Most of their money currently comes from Good Ventures, a foundation managing the philanthopic efforts of Facebook and Asana cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and his partner Cari Tuna, who have an estimated net worth of [$22.8bn as of June 16th 2021](https://www.forbes.com/profile/dustin-moskovitz/?sh=4d3dcdd1dd34). They donated $15 million to the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\" in 2020 and $63 million in 2019. This question asks about how much they will grant in 2030.\nHow much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?\nThis question will resolve to the sum of the dollar values of Open Philanthropy grants dated 2030 and listed in their [grants database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) with the focus area \"Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence\". If their grants database is no longer public it will resolve to their announced total donations in this focus area in 2030. If Open Phil do not disclose their grants in this area for 2030 this question should resolve ambiguous.\nIf Open Phil change their cataloguing system for focus areas, any areas which are focused primarily on risks from Artificial Intelligence should count towards resolution of this question.\nSee [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7418/open-phil-ai-grants-2025/) for a similar question about 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:40.452Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-07-05T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;geo=US&amp;q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as &lt;1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:45.624Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7199/cost-to-store-1-tb-on-google-archive-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Google offers cloud storage services. Their cheapest option is archive storage, which currently goes for the rate of $0.0012 per GB per month in the Iowa (us-central1) region. You can find pricing information on [this page](https://cloud.google.com/storage/pricing).\nHow many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?\nThis question resolves as the number of dollars it will cost to store 1 TB (not 1 GB) of data per month on Google Cloud Archive, as of January 1st 2025. The region used will be Iowa (us-central1), if it still exists, or the cheapest region available if Iowa (us-central1) is unavailable. Right now, the cost is $1.20, and would resolve at the value of 1.2.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:50.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:26:56.326Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T01:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). \nWe might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) \"[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).\nWhen will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:02.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:08.940Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 236,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Mike Pence served as the 48th Vice President of the United States. Prior to that he was the governor of Indiana. Vice Presidents often seek the presidency in later elections, and there has [been speculation](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trumps-heir-pence-reemerges-lays-040658191.html) that Pence is preparing to run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Mike Pence is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:14.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-03T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T16:43:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-08-31T15:44:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in \"[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)\", the evaluation criteria are described in \"[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)\". \nAs of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below \"Top Charity\".\nWill a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?\nBy \"primarily operating in China\" we mean that at least half of their efforts or finances are spent on their work in China. For example, [ProVeg International](https://proveg.com/) works in China but doesn't meet this criterion. However, a recommendation by ACE to ProVeg restricted to their work in China would qualify. This criterion is subject to reasonable interpretation; in ambiguous cases, the view of ACE will decide resolution. \nThe question resolves positively if a charity primarily operating in China features as a top charity in [ACE's recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/)\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:19.645Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.\nWhen completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to \"study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.\"\nPer [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),\n[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.\nOf course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.\nTo that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? \nResolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:24.861Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.17000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:30.137Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 318,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.\nIn June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.\nThis relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.\nWould we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.\nResolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:35.868Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7137/va-workplace-activity-reach-baseline-lvl/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 25 April 2021, [Google mobility data](https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2021-04-25_US_Virginia_Mobility_Report_en.pdf) indicates that mobility trends for workplaces are -13% below baseline.\nWhen will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia?\nThis question resolves on the basis of when the first [Google Mobility report](https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/) is released that finds that mobility trends for \"workplaces\" is at or above baseline.\nIf this does not occur before 31 July 2023, it resolves as &gt; 31 July 2023.\nThis question retroactively closes to when the -2% below baseline is reached.\n29 April 2021 edit: changed from -15% below baseline level to baseline level.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:41.290Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 216,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-31T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-07-31T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:46.517Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:51.995Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 51,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n1--There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n2--Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n3--Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n4--It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \nNote that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:27:57.489Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 436,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:02.976Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 407,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:08.919Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 195,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is \"a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.\"\nOne of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called \"[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)\" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.\nVoyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.\nWill some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)\nNote: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:15.029Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 182,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-11-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:23.282Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 45,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The universe is thought to contain:\n---only around 5% of ordinary matter \n---25% Dark Matter \n---70% Dark Energy \nIn other words, we don't know what 95% of the universe is made of.\nPresence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained unless more matter is present than can be seen.\n[Dark energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_energy) is an unknown form of energy which is hypothesized to permeate all of space, tending to accelerate the expansion of the universe. Dark energy is the most accepted hypothesis to explain the observations since the 1990s indicating that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.\n[What is Dark Matter and Dark Energy? by Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAa2O_8wBUQ) is an approachable introduction to the topic.\nThe question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale.\nIf the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:28.687Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 228,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:34.061Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "President-elect Joe Biden has stated he will seek to add a “public option” component to the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This would create a [Medicare-like public insurance plan that any American can buy into and that would compete with private insurance plans](https://joebiden.com/healthcare/). It [seems likely](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) that Republican senators will oppose the introduction of a public option.\nWill the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President. \nA public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:39.308Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 180,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The island of Ireland has had a chequered past, recently in particular [the ethno-nationalist Troubles](https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/world/a-history-of-terrorism-in-europe/??noredirect=on). During those thirty years, [nearly 500 attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_London#Republican_attacks_during_the_Troubles) were carried out. Many treaties and agreements were made, but only the Good Friday Agreement successfully put an end to the attacks and led to a disarmament of all paramilitary groups.\nThe United Kingdom leaving the European Union may jeopardise that, since the—over the decades pacified, and in many contexts barely existent—border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would turn into an [external border for the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_border_of_the_European_Union). Crossing such a border would require passports and controls and all kinds of bureaucracy, in contrast to the non-issue crossing that border had turned into over the years.\nThus we ask: \nWill we see a possible resurgence of the Troubles?\nThis question resolves positively if former or renewed IRA, former or renewed UVF, or similarly politically positioned groups initiate or execute\n---three or more attacks over the span of one year (rolling), or \n---1 or more attacks per year over the span of three years (rolling). \nFor the purposes of this question, any attack must occur on the territory of the UK or the Republic of Ireland, or be aimed at people in the U.K. or the Republic of Ireland. Moreover, for the purpose of this question the attack will deemed to have happened if:\n---it is claimed by relevant organisations (e.g. New IRA) or declared to be in relation to the conflict between Ireland and Northern Ireland by official sources \nand either of the following:\n---it injures at least one other person (beside the attacker), or \n---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. \nThis question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:44.689Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 158,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-11-25T11:05:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:50.200Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 269,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:28:55.527Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 202,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:01.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-09-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:06.222Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:11.994Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 284,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7081/carbon-capture-and-storage-potential-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technologies in which carbon dioxide is captured and either used or stored long-term to stop it from contributing to global warming. \nCCS is expected to play a role if the world is successful in limiting global warming. Specifically, the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario models 5,635 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of CCS by 2050. \nHowever, CCS has been lacklustre so far. All large-scale CCS projects together have only 40 Mtpa of capacity, and the pipeline of large-scale CCS projects is smaller now than it was in 2011. CCS projects attached to electricity generation, in particular, have failed in recent years ([Kemper County](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/we-cant-let-kemper-slow-the-progress-of-carbon-capture-and-storage) and [Petra Nova](https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063714297)). \nWe are counting capacity, the amount that the projects could capture, not the amount that they actually capture in the given year. However, to qualify as a large-scale CCS project, the project has to actually capture 0.4-0.8 million tonnes per annum. Once it reaches that threshold its entire capacity, used or unused, counts towards the total.\nThis year's [Global Status of CCS report](https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/resources/global-status-report/) from the Global CCS Institute has more details and provided the stats used in this background.\nWhat will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030?\nWhat will the Global CCS Institute identify as the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) for 2030?\nIf there is a figure reported for 2030, that figure will be used. Otherwise if a figure can be calculated from a database of large-scale CCS projects maintained by the Global CCS Institute, that will be used. \nIf the Global CCS Institute ceases to exist or has not reported a figure for 2030 by 30 June 2031, or if its methodology is shown to have changed significantly from its current practice, a total can be calculated based on the criteria below: \nThe total capacity of all projects that actually captured at least 0.8 million tonnes of CO2 (for coal projects) or 0.4 million tonnes of CO2 (for other projects) in 2030. \nThe storage can be done by a different project, but it must actually take place (capturing CO2 but then releasing it into the atmosphere does not count). \nNote that the Global CCS Institute is not so strict about applying the 0.4/0.8 Mtpa cut-off, so if Metaculans do need to calculate the total themselves it may end up a bit lower than the Institute's total would have. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:17.500Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-29T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7247/customer-base-of-ai-assistants-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One natural use case of AI systems are virtual assistants:\nAn intelligent virtual assistant (IVA) or intelligent personal assistant (IPA) is a software agent that can perform tasks or services for an individual based on commands or questions. [[source]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_assistant)\nThere is already a broad user base as of the pre-installed virtual assistants from Apple, Amazon, Windows and Google. \nAs of 2017, the capabilities and usage of virtual assistants are expanding rapidly, with new products entering the market and a strong emphasis on both email and voice user interfaces. Apple and Google have large installed bases of users on smartphones. Microsoft has a large installed base of Windows-based personal computers, smartphones and smart speakers. Amazon has a large install base for smart speakers.[3] Conversica has over 100 million engagements via its email and sms interface Intelligent Virtual Assistants for business. [[source]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_assistant)\nHow many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025?\nThis will be resolved according to the number of customers who pay(ed) specifically for the service of the AI assistant, so the purchase must be uncoupled of hardware components like speakers and screens or computing devices like smartphones. Exemplary prototypes that this question is aimed at are a software firm developing an alternative to Siri, or [Replika](https://replika.ai/), an app that offers to build a virtual replica of a human that you can interact with via chat and voice calls.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:22.728Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:33.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:39.074Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 192,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:44.281Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:49.552Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 141,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-14T13:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:29:54.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 302,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:00.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 223,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).\nDean Mullen writes,\nProgression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.\nand Jeff T Kaufman countered with,\nSlaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.\nNo country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from \"legal and common\" to \"completely banned\" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Dean Mullen the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Jeff T Kaufman the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nThe rules for resolution are specified as follows,\n1-- \nThe bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the United Kingdom by 2050.\n2-- \nA slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.\n3-- \nThe legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050 in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:05.828Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:12.036Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.\nLet's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer. \nThe Collatz Conjecture is that this program halts (and returns 1) for all integer inputs.\nLet's imagine a companion program called collatz_halts(), which takes an integer input n, always halts, and returns 1 if collatz() halts, and 0 otherwise.\nDoes collatz_halts() exist? If collatz() always halts, then collatz_halts() definitely exists, because the answer is 1 for all inputs. If collatz_program() only halts for some n, then collatz_halts() might or might not exist.\nNote that if the Collatz Conjecture is false for only a finite number of inputs, then collatz_halts() exists, since the program could test against an enumeration of the the inputs for which collatz() does not halt. Also note that if collatz() always either halts or encounters a cycle, then collatz_halts() exists by modifying collatz() to check for cycles.\nResolution:\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if it is demonstrated that a program must exist that always halts and tests whether the Collatz program halts with a given input.\n--- \nIt will resolve negatively if the Conjecture is proven to be false and such a halting-test program is proven not to exist.\n--- \nBoth of these resolutions will be via publication in a major mathematics journal.\nIf no such proof is published before June 21, 2520, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:20.329Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)\nOpen Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?\nCari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.\nAs of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?\nMoney donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.\nBy the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:25.627Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2623-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:30.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2063-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a &gt;=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:36.124Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 776,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up.\nAssume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years?\nThe date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037.\nThis question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented.\nIf costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:41.476Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:46.980Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. \nAs of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&amp;text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).\nIn May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends &amp; Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:52.260Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-15T19:44:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T19:44:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:30:57.519Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad.\nIt was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential.\nSome Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products.\nIt is asked: Will there be a country that bans the consumption of all animal products by 2100?\nConsumption means eating, wearing, or otherwise applying to the body (makeup, etc), and an animal product is anything whose primary component is directly part of or excreted by a modern macroscopic Animalia organism. This would include things like honey, silk, and carmine, but not include things like limestone, using animal labor, or accidental cockroaches in cans of soup. It would also not include products such as wine that may use animal parts in the course of production.\nThe question resolves positive if either: \n---On January 1st, 2100 there is at least one country of population of at least 5 million in which the consumption of any product derived from an animal, whether or not the animal was killed or harmed in the process, is illegal.\nOR\n---There was at least one country that had such a ban in effect for at least 5 years during which its population was at least 5 million, prior to January 1st, 2100. \nThe question resolves negative if neither condition is met.\nWe shall define animal as having to be a whole organism, which means that if the consumption of in vitro meat is not banned, the question may still resolve positive.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:02.831Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 479,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-01-25T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "SpaceX's ultimate purpose always was to allow for the human colonization of Mars. While the company has existed since 2002, it was only in September of 2017 that Elon Musk [announced the creation of a launch vehicle capable of bringing humans to the red planet](http://www.spacex.com/mars), which he codenamed the \"[BFR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket))\".\nSpaceX currently plans to launch the BFR with Mars-bound cargo flights as early as 2022 (and plans to send humans to Mars in 2024), suggesting that the first test flight should take place prior to 2022.\nYet, Elon Musk does not always stick to schedules, which can be clearly seen in the [numerous delays of the Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:SpaceX_Falcon_Heavy_schedule_delays.png), even though it seems quite likely now that the Falcon Heavy will test-launch in the near future.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will SpaceX launch a vehicle designed to bring at least 100 tones of payload into low earth orbit when used in a reusable manner before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC?\nWe shall define a \"reusable manner\" as at least 80% of the spacecraft's non-fuel non-payload mass being reusable.\nFor a positive resolution the rocket must clear the towers by at least 1 km. (Note that the launch, not the tower clearing must occur before January 1st 2025 at 00:00 UTC. It should be extremely unlikely that this technicality will matter.)\nResolution is by credible media report.\nClosing time for the question has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landings.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:08.422Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 571,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:13.888Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will commercial supersonic flight return?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:20.365Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 336,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7213/highest-paid-dead-celebrity-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Forbes Magazine, in an [article last year](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/11/13/the-highest-paid-dead-celebrities-of-2020/), mentioned\n---Marilyn Monroe (d. 1962) \n---Charles Schulz (20th year) \n---\"Dr. Seuss\" (oldest) (20th year) \n---Elvis Presley (20th year) \n---John Lennon (20th year) \n---George Harrison \n---Freddie Mercury \n---Bob Marley \n---Arnold Palmer \n---Kobe Bryant \n---the musician known as \"Prince\" \n---young \"Juice WRLD\" (1998-2019) and \n---Michael Jackson \nThey were listed in ascending order from Marilyn ($8 million USD) to Michael ($48 million USD). Wrote Forbes:\nOur annual list of the top-earning dead celebrities measures pretax income from October 1, 2019 through October 1, 2020.\n[Similar lists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes%27_list_of_the_world%27s_highest-paid_dead_celebrities) were published annually, since 2001.\nIf Forbes publishes such a list for 2021, we ask:\nWhen Forbes calculates the highest FY2021 earnings for these 13 celebrities, how much will be earned by the highest earner (in millions of USD)?\nAny icon on the 2021 list who is not listed above will be ignored. The question will resolve as the highest 2021 earnings of any of the icons listed above.\nIf none of those names appears on the 2021 list, the question will resolve as one-million dollars less than the 2021 earnings of the lowest earner on the 2021 list.\nFor reference: Michael Jackson has topped the most annual lists, followed by Elvis Presley (pre-2010). Charles Schulz is typically in the top 5 with earnings in the 20-50 range.\nActor James Dean was listed in 2001 with $3 million, less than any icon on the list that year or any year.\nFor income numbers, if \"millions of US dollars\" is not explicitly written, it is implied. Words such as \"income\" and \"earnings\" are interchangeable on this page.\nOn 4 May 2022, if Forbes has not published a similar list for FY21, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nAdmins in their discretion may resolve the question as ambiguous if the 2021 list uses a different currency or if it isn't based on a fiscal year. Otherwise, Forbes' calculations shall be conclusive, regardless of methodology.\nForbes' methodology:\nWe compile our numbers with the help of data from MRC Data, IMDbPro, NPD BookScan and interviews with industry insiders. Fees for agents, managers and lawyers are not deducted.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:25.696Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-26T00:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-11-30T01:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&amp;A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&amp;A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:31.073Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 210,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When a [massive solar storm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) hit the earth in 1859, it produced auroras bright enough to wake Colorado miners and threw sparks off of telegraph wires. Were such a storm to strike today, however, the consequences to our technology-dependent society [would be catastrophic](http://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9). Such storms are the subject of several other questions, particularly [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/519/will-evidence-emerge-for-solar-superflares/) regarding the frequency of such storms and [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/168/will-the-us-develop-a-new-satellite-for-early-warning-of-severe-geomagnetic-storms/) regarding the construction of a satellite warning system.\nTwo Harvard University professors, Manasvi Lingam and Abraham Loeb, recently [estimate the losses](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.05348.pdf) at $10 trillion, with a years-long recovery. In contrast to that cost, which is approximately [50 times the cost of NASA's initial efforts to send humans to the moon](https://christopherrcooper.com/blog/apollo-program-cost-return-investment/). Given estimates upward of 1%/year of such a flare, this sort of prospective loss arguably calls for significant spending at risk mitigation.\nBeyond warnings or damage minimization, the above paper proposes a somewhat more radical astronomical protection plan. A loop of copper wire with a diameter similar to the Earth's, they say, powered by one terawatt, could create a sufficient magnetic field so as to deflect the energy of a solar storm enough to protect the planet's technology. Placed at the [Lagrange point L1](https://www.space.com/30302-lagrange-points.html), the loop would cost about $100 billion to construct, Lingam and Loeb estimate. (As a fun side-beneit, they investigate how we might look for signs of such shields built by other civilizations out there.)\nWill anyone take this idea seriously? We'll ask the following:\nBy 2021, will a chunk of more than $100,000 USD be spent in pursuit of this idea?\nThis question will resolve positively given a credible report that a grant, contract, budget line, or some similar allocation of funding equalling $100K or more has been made toward further study of, or designs for, an in-orbit Earth protecting magnetic deflection system. Effective cost of researcher or faculty time does not count, and the description of the allocation must somewhere directly reference Lingam and Loeb.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:37.068Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 250,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-10-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.\nHow many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?\nFor reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.\n* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:42.297Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-08T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:47.602Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 254,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus)\nThere are already questions about the number of deaths that will be attributed to the disease before 2021, as well as the number of cases and estimated infections that will develop. However, there are some reasons why specific questions about ratios of these values will be useful:\n--- \nWhile dividing the median for deaths by the median for estimated infections may give a reasonable point estimate, it doesn't give all the info we want. With this question, we will be able to see the distribution of infection-mortality rates. This cannot be reliably inferred using the distributions for number of cases and number of deaths, because the variables are correlated.\n--- \nThe time-series graph provided by the question will show how predictions about infection-fatality rates change over time.\nResolution: The resolution for this question will be determined by directly dividing the number of fatalities by the total number of cases, using the resolution values given by the following two Metaculus questions:\n--- \nNumerator: [How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-before-2021/)\n--- \nDenominator: [How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/)\nThere may be more sophisticated ways of determining infection-fatality rate, but we would like to stay consistent with the other Metaculus questions.\nEdited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather than the case-fatality ratio.\nEdited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021.\nEdited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:53.015Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1782,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:31:58.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:03.873Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nDollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nCurrently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.\nHow much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:09.468Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 182,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:14.811Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 214,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:20.479Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 191,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:26.653Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:54:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2019, the [US plant-based milk companies with the largest investment rounds](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf) were Nutpods ($33.61M), Ripple Foods ($11.92M Series C+), Kite Hill ($10M Series C+), Nümilk ($10M Seed), Mooala ($8.33M Series A), and Koia ($7.03M Series A+). These companies alone raised over $80M in venture capital funding.\nHow much venture capital, private equity, and other capital will be invested in private plant-based milk companies in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the sum total of venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit investment in U.S.-based or U.S.-selling plant-based milk companies in 2022. This question resolves on the basis of data reported in credible financial data, such as Crunchbase or Pitchbook, or as reported by industry observers and research institutes, such as the Good Food Institute.\nFor the purpose of this question, and consistent with the Good Food Institute's [2019 U.S. State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/INN-PBMED-SOTIR-2020-0507.pdf), we will consider the following financing types: angel funding, seed funding, crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, accelerator or incubator funding, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, and convertible debt. This excludes exits (mergers, acquisitions, IPOs, subsequent share offerings, and buyouts).\nFor the purpose of this question, plant-based milk companies are those classified as such in the Good Food Institute's [Alternative Protein Company Database](https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/). Note that for a company to qualify as a plant-based milk company, its primary focus must be alternative milk products made from plants.\nPrices are to be given in nominal terms, i.e. in 2022 USD. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:32.170Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:36:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-01T22:36:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).\nIf success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.\nMoreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.\nHow many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. \nFor a company to qualify as a \"clean meat company\" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\" or \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.\nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nThe resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.\nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:37.692Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 130,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:42.972Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-08-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election),\nBefore, during, and after Election Day, Trump and numerous Republicans attempted to subvert the [2020 election] and overturn the results, falsely alleging that there had been widespread voter fraud, and trying to influence the vote counting process in swing states. Officials in each of the 50 states stated that there was no evidence of systematic fraud or irregularities in their state. Federal agencies overseeing election security said it was \"the most secure in American history.\" Attorney General Bill Barr concluded there was \"no evidence of widespread fraud\" in the election. On multiple occasions, Trump falsely declared himself the winner. The Trump campaign and its allies continued to engage in numerous attempts to overturn the results of the election by filing dozens of legal challenges in several states, most of which were dropped or dismissed by various courts, spreading conspiracy theories falsely alleging fraud, pressuring Republican state electors and legislators, and initially refusing to cooperate with the presidential transition.\nWill the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?\nFor the purpose of this question, the \"losing party\" is defined as the party whose presidential candidate is projected to come in second place in the electoral college vote count by both the AP and Fox News (see fine print). This question resolves positively if ANY of the following come true following the 2024 presidential election,\n--- \nThe losing candidate states that they consider the election result \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say a close synonym of \"fraudulent\" or \"rigged\", and therefore a dispute over whether the word choice counts for positive resolution, then the following method of resolution will be used: if [thesaurus.com](http://thesaurus.com) lists \"fraud\", \"fraudulent\", or \"rigged\" as a synonym of the word, and at least one moderator agrees that it is a close synonym, then it counts for positive resolution.\n--- \nThe losing candidate refuses to concede two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting their opponent to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. For the purpose of this question, a concession is a clear statement from the candidate projected to lose that they have acknowledged their defeat, and that they accept the results of the election. The concession must not be retracted within 48 hours.\n--- \nFewer than 20% of congressional members of the losing party believe that their candidate lost the election as determined by credible media two weeks following both the AP and Fox News projecting the opposite-party candidate to win the election AND neither the AP or Fox News having retracted their projection in that time. By comparison, on December 7th 2020, [just 27 congressional Republicans acknowledge Biden’s win](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-who-won-election-republicans-congress/2020/12/04/1a1011f6-3650-11eb-8d38-6aea1adb3839_story.html) according to the Washington Post.\n--- \nA survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey participants who are members of the losing party state that the election was \"probably\" or \"definitely\" free and fair in the most recent such survey following projections from both the AP and Fox News. The relevant survey for 2020 can be found [here](https://morningconsult.com/form/tracking-voter-trust-in-elections/).\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nFor the purpose of this question, a network is said to have \"projected\" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of \"projected\" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:48.435Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 268,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-20T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 &lt; p &lt; 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p &gt; 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:53.777Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 218,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:32:58.952Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 221,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:05.390Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 679,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:10.775Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:18.116Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:25.332Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:30.922Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 130,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate.\nFor centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html)\nThe day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... \"\nPeter Singer [wrote](https://www.uvm.edu/rsenr/wfb175/singer.pdf) in 1974,\nOur custom is all the support that the meat industry needs. The decision to cease giving it that support may be difficult, but it is no more difficult than it would have been for a white Southerner to go against the traditions of his society and free his slaves: if we do not change our dietary habits, how can we censure those slaveholders who would not change their own way of living?\nMany contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the current treatment of animal as property, once tasty artificial meat is developed. If future humans become regretful of our current treatment of animals, will there be an official apology from a government?\nThis question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nFor clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has \"the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity.\" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:37.392Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 130,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:42.600Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 168,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.\nThis question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?\nQuestion resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:47.856Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:53.084Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:33:58.293Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.\nIn a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:\nIn summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.\nThe preprint implicates the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the only BSL-4 virology lab in China. [Scientists have previously expressed concerns](https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487) about the organisation's ability to monitor the lab.\nOther scientists, such as Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle has disputed the theory of the laboratory origins of COVID-19, [claiming](https://www.ft.com/content/a6392ee6-4ec6-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5): \"There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find\". ETA (2021-07-06) to clarify, this doesn't 'dispute all lab-origins, just those that involve genetic modification.\nBefore the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus originated from a Chinese virology laboratory. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&amp;meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.\nAssessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include \"probably\", \"likely\", \"with high probability\" and \"almost certainly\".\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:05.132Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 779,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.\n[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.\nWhat will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?\nThe question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:10.624Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "All political parties eventually come to an end.\nMost U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)\nFor as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. \nBut this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): \nDemocrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.\nFrom almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. \nHowever, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece\nFor how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:\n--- \nOne of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or\n--- \nEither there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or\n--- \nA US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.\nNote that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:18.056Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 144,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-11-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-11-15T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:23.330Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:29.378Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-04-29T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-11T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:34.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z",
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"close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:40.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):\nVenture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.\nHe plans to do that unsing technology (ibid.):\n“Today, you can do a virtual screen of a billion compounds, do on-demand synthesis of all of those, and you can do it overnight in the cloud.”\nOnce a molecule is made, Borisy points to the potential to analyze reams of clinical data to design efficient studies that can prove a drug’s value to government groups and payers.\nCombined, these technological efficiencies could bring down the cost of getting a drug onto the market—often cited as between $2 billion and $3 billion—by an order of magnitude, Borisy says. If EQRx spends, on average, $300 million to $400 million per drug, he believes the biotech firm can still be “very profitable,” even as it offers its medicines at a significant discount.\nA [Stat article](https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/12/venture-capitalist-alexis-borisy-bring-down-drug-prices/) has this to say about EQRx's plan:\nQuite simply, Borisy is going to invent and develop new drugs, and sell them for less money than the competition. He calls this “a radical proposition.” In any other sector, it would just be called “business.”\nTo offer some counterweight, Derek Lowe (who writes probably the most famous and oldest chemistry blog, and has been working in drug discovery for decades) [has this to say](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/01/15/eqrxs-challenge-and-my-challenge-to-them):\nNo, in case you were wondering, you cannot virtually screen a billion compounds overnight.\nno, you cannot do “on-demand synthesis of all of those”, either.\nI will put up $500 dollars on [LongBets.com](http://LongBets.com) against the proposition that EQRx will produce ten drugs in the next ten years.\nWe will ask here about a much less ambitious goal: Will EQRx get at least one new drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?\nIf EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the company gets bought / merges with another before it has had a drug approved by the FDA, any drug that clearly originated in EQRx and gets approved before the deadline counts.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:45.792Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-30T23:34:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:43:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6963/transplants-without-immunosuppressants/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their lives in order to avoid organ rejection. This dependence on drugs is of course a sad and significant inconvenience to the patients. A number of laboratories around the world are working to eliminate the necessity of them, and they have made progress by for example using bone marrow from the donor (which was shown to decrease the dose of drugs needed).\nWhen will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?\nThis question will resolve when the first organ transplant is successfully performed without the need for any immunosuppressants.\nFor this question, any transplant of the following organs shall count: skin, cornea, uterus, kidney, liver, lung, heart, pancreas, intestine, stomach, testis, penis, thymus.\nTransplants from twins or clones of the patient (which have occurred since 1954) are not included for this question. A genetically modified organ, grown in an animal or artificial environment shall be allowed.\nIn some instances, immunosuppressant drugs are not necessary (for instance, children under 12 months old). This question is meant to predict the discovery of a method which is &gt;50% effective for &gt;50% of the population (for any one or more organs). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:51.083Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-10T22:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-10T22:32:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:34:56.472Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)\nOver the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. \nThis question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:01.982Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-03-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:07.342Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \"&gt;2050-09-05\". \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:12.792Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 128,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:19.984Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 289,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:25.375Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).\nIn the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).\nYet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.\nSimilarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. \nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nThe [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nAccording to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).\nWhat percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.\nFor the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. \nStunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. \nIn case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:30.550Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:35.800Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-03-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&amp;D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&amp;D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&amp;D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&amp;D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&amp;D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&amp;D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&amp;D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&amp;D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:41.047Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as &gt;.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:46.371Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 51,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2199-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:52.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 62,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:35:57.377Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 201,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).\nIf Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:02.568Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:08.492Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&amp;ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:14.186Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:20.162Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 157,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:26.357Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 212,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:31.646Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:37.479Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 142,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:42.991Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:48.264Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 283,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:53.512Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:36:58.912Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:09.484Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 139,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:20.052Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 262,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"&gt; Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:25.302Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:30.529Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:36.090Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:41.250Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:46.910Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:52.405Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2036-01-01T00:58:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:37:57.685Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:02.968Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 72,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6975/2025-donations-to-cause-prioritization/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf cause prioritization is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:08.280Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 20,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.\n[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).\nWill Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?\nQuestion resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:13.615Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-19T13:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:24.208Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:29.441Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7044/-cattle-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Infectious disease outbreaks](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2865087/) are major threats to global animal health and welfare, and effective management of and control is necessary for global agronomic and food security. Zoonotic diseases are transmissible between humans to animals, and between animals, and can be transmitted either directly or indirectly. Recent examples include the suspected animal-born [Ebola virus outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/about.html#:~:text=Scientists%20do%20not%20know%20where,being%20the%20most%20likely%20source.) in [2014](https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/chronology.html) and the [Swine Flu H1N1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/keyfacts_pigs.htm) outbreak in 2009. Other [endemic infectious diseases](http://www.fao.org/3/i5867e/i5867e.pdf) in humans and animals include Foot and Mouth disease, Lumpy Skin Disease, Anthrax, Newcastle Disease, and Peste de Petits Ruminants. \nMeat production, especially at scale, [increases epidemic risks for human populations](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10640-020-00484-3) both directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals, and indirectly through its impact on the environment. \nAttempts to limit the spread and severity of infectious disease outbreaks in animals rely on mass cullings of infected and at-risk farms. In the COVID-19 pandemic, [Denmark culled approximately 17 million mink](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/animal-news/here-s-why-denmark-culled-17-million-minks-now-plans-n1249610) in efforts to protect against the spread of the virus through their farms and to the human populace. However, culling is accompanied by a host of ethical and economic concerns, including animal cruelty and financial loss to both farmers and the country.\nMajor [endemic outbreaks related to cattle](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world) include Bovine Tuberculosis and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), both of which require infected animals to be culled immediately. In 2018, there were around 143,000 cases of M. bovis related TB in humans, [according to the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2020/sep/15/covid-farm-animals-and-pandemics-diseases-that-changed-the-world).\nHow many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of cattle reported to have been culled, within a period of three months, due to a single infectious disease outbreak between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2023.\n--- \nThe number will be generated by summing over all the reported numbers of cattle that are culled within a three-month period, in production facilities worldwide, as a response to the outbreak of a single infectious disease.\n--- \nThe cattle must be culled for the purpose of the purpose of preventing the spread or reducing the risk of an infectious disease.\n--- \nThe resolution will be obtained from at least two reputable sources including news, scientific, or government platforms.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:35.213Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-04-22T22:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T23:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:40.530Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 179,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:46.933Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A decade ago, the United Nations Chronicle asked, poignantly, whether a world free of nuclear weapons will [ever be possible](https://unchronicle.un.org/article/nuclear-weapons-free-world-it-achievable). Although skeptical, the authors offer us a glimmer of hope: \"Six decades ago it might have been easier to achieve a nuclear-weapons-free world, but now it will take an enlightened leadership to do so.\"\nThe [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/) took up a similar question:\nLogic might seem to say of course [we'll never achieve a nuclear weapons free state]. But the president of the United States and a number of key foreign-policy dignitaries are now on record saying yes. They acknowledge that a nuclear-weapons-free world remains a vision, not immediately attainable and perhaps not achievable within the lifetimes of most contemporary policy makers. \nAnd an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Global Zero](https://www.globalzero.org/) seeks to get to zero nukes by 2045, and they say they have [a plan](https://www.globalzero.org/zero-by-2045/).\nOn the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: \"Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.\"\nSo are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the \"deployed\": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:52.493Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 174,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-12-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2048-12-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will chess be \"weakly solved\" by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/574/will-chess-be-weakly-solved-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to the [Wikipedian article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game), a game is considered weakly solved if an algorithm that secures a win for one player, or a draw for either, against any possible moves by the opponent, from the beginning of the game can be found.\nThe [chess-specific Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess) quotes some rather long timelines citing the daunting combinatorics, and goes on that\nRecent scientific advances have not significantly changed these assessments. The game of checkers was (weakly) solved in 2007, but it has roughly the square root of the number of positions in chess. Jonathan Schaeffer, the scientist who led the effort, said a breakthrough such as quantum computing would be needed before solving chess could even be attempted, but he does not rule out the possibility, saying that the one thing he learned from his 16-year effort of solving checkers \"is to never underestimate the advances in technology\".\nHere is the question:\nWill chess be weakly solved by 2035? \nChess is considered to having been weakly solved if a researcher makes such a claim and the claim is arguably accepted by academia within a year, in a sense comparable to checkers' solution. Assessment will be made at Jan 1, 2035.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:38:57.911Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 343,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-10-24T05:22:32Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-10T05:22:42Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:03.344Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 131,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-10T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)\nWill a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis prediction resolves positive if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 5% or more of the national popular vote, and negative if one does not.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:08.574Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-04T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=2019&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:13.786Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \"&gt;12/31/30.\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:18.945Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \"&gt;Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:24.711Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.\nHow many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?\nThis question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A \"patient\" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:30.340Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 92,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:35.786Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
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},
{
"title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:42.797Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 373,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWe estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.\nAnother variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:\nThe evidence that has been collated, therefore, strongly suggests that that the current second wave we are experiencing is being driven by [501.V2].\nWill a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if credible evidence indicates that a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before 2021-06-02. Evidence that emerges on the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted.\nFor a single variant to be considered at least 30.0% more transmissible than preexisting variants, a credible meta-analysis or systematic review of at least 5 studies indicates that the Sars-CoV-2 variant is at least 30% more transmissible than were dominant previously. Specifically, it must indicate that its effective reproductive number Rt is estimated to be 30% greater than that of the previously dominant variant, holding all else (such as behaviour and NPIs) constant.\nTo establish that the variant has infected 10M worldwide, we shall consult either reports issued by national health-agencies (or institutes affiliated with national health agencies), or credible meta-analyses of estimates in the academic literature. Single estimates in academic literature do not suffice for the purpose of this question.\nSee this this question's sister question on &gt;50% transmissibility [here](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/6089/50-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/).\n--- \nIn the likely case that estimates are given in credible or confidence intervals, any number below the 2.5th percentile of the interval in the relevant meta-analyses will be consulted.\n--- \nOnly evidence available at the resolution date (2021-12-30) may be consulted for resolution. \n--- \nMeta-analyses or systematic reviews do not need to be peer-reviewed, though these need to be credible (e.g. their authors have a track-record of producing high-quality relevant research). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:48.189Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 626,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-29T22:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-29T23:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The scientific definition of \"species\" is surprisingly complicated.\nAs this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:\nAt first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.\nFor the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): \"a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature.\" \nEvolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.\nAnd of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.\nHow many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? \nWe'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:39:59.386Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 203,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-11-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "9999-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).\nAccording to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.\nWill the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period.\nIf for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability.\nIf the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:04.660Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T08:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-05-01T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:10.901Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Born in 1918, Robert Wadlow grew to enormous size and scraped the skies at 8' 11\" thanks to hormonal issue that tragically also led to a cacade of health problems. He died in 1940 of consequences from an infection.\nOther people have crested the 8' tall mark, but they are few and far between, and no one's come close to Wadlow's record, at least according to the [officials at Guinness](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/tallest-man-ever/).\nCan people ever grow to 9 feet tall or even beyond? This [article from The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2004/may/06/thisweekssciencequestions3) points out that: \nNormally, the growth of our bones is limited by our sex hormones. A good burst of sex hormones at the right time tells the ends of our bones to stop growing. In acromegalic gigantism, as the tumour grows, it destroys cells in the pituitary gland that stimulate the release of sex hormones. The bones, therefore, never get the signal to stop growing.\nBut surely there must be a limit to a person's height? John Wass, a specialist in acromegalic gigantism at the University of Oxford, reckons it would be impressive to survive for long if you grew taller than 9ft. \nHere's why Wass thinks 9 feet tall is a ceiling, so to speak: \n---blood pressure in the legs would be extreme and dangerous \n---keeping blood circulating in such a person would strain the heart to the breaking point \n[Gizmodo points out](https://gizmodo.com/5994755/how-tall-can-a-human-get) that: \nthe primary [obstacle to mega growth] is our environment. Gravity, and the limited buoyancy of the air around us, means that our bones would have to grow exponentially larger to support a human that towered ten to twelve feet tall. \nAnd this [New York Times piece](https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30qna.html) quotes Dr. Rob DeSalle, of the Sackler Institute for Comparative Genomics, who says: \nMany joint disorders and bone problems exist for these individuals that impact average-height people much less. Engineering problems with respect to organisms and their evolution do not get solved easily.\nAll that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some person, somewhere, will break the mark. But when?\nMore specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a &gt; 9' tall human?\n9 foot = 274 cm\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:18.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 235,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-19T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&amp;utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:23.768Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Tennis has appeared the Olympics [on-and-off](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_Summer_Olympics) throughout Olympic history. It was most recently added to the program as a full sport in 1988.\nTennis has appeared 18 times since the start of the modern games in 1896.\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will tennis remain part of the Olympics in 2044?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill the Tennis be part of the Olympics in 2044?\nThis question resolves positive if there is a Tennis event in the 2044 Summer Olympic programme.\nIf Tennis is a demonstration sport, this resolves positive. If there is no 2044 Summer Olympics, this question resolves based on the Summer Olympics closest in time to 2044-08-01. If there is no Summer Olympics within a 10 years either side, it resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:29.388Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2044-01-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"name": "No",
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:34.686Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
},
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:39.867Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). \nThese organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.\nWhat is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?\nIf no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nOtherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.\n\"Active\" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:45.200Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-04T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2141-07-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:50.565Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 865,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:40:57.180Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 504,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:02.440Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 565,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:07.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 137,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:13.293Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:18.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 185,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2250-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&amp;C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"&gt; Oct 5, 2031\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:24.416Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:34.985Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 238,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-10-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:41.465Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 351,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.\nYet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?\nIt is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?\nData for resolution shall be taken from the [2033 Forbes Billionaires list (note: of course the link currently does not lead to the 2033 list)]( https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/). Note that this list is to be differentiated from the real time list.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:47.999Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 304,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Due to the DeepMind team's [recent achievements](https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/) with Alphastar, superhuman decision-making in StarCraft 2 is now on the horizon. I envision this technology becoming a platform that can be used by Blizzard and independent modders for many applications. \nOne example is a neural network that not only plays the game, but does so by simulating human hands, a mouse, and a keyboard in order to represent human play as faithfully as possible. But in the short term, this could also be acheived by simply constraining Alphastar to mimic the human keystroke and mouse movement data that it already has access to. Right now the AI plays the game in ways that are probably impossible for humans to reproduce, but a properly constrained AI could discover the theoretical optimal strategies and meta for humans, which the player community could then learn from. \nSuch accurately representative simulations would also make it possible to design a more perfectly balanced version of the game, as well as reliably dictate a meta that encourages desired play styles. This could be done for the professional scene in particular, but also for all other levels of player proficiency. \nIt could perhaps be possible to create AIs on demand that play in various predefined styles, e.g. mimic individual human players, or play at a skill level so accurately defined that it can serve as the new benchmark for player rankings and leagues. Or it could do all of these at once, eventually. It could be possible to use insights from the AI's self assessment mechanisms to design a customizeable training \"coach\" for players. Alphastar is already made to calculate a win/loss prediction, continuously updating in response to the gamestate (see in linked article). I'm sure players would love to see graphs of win/loss prediction for their games.\nDo you think that AI will be applied in these ways to SC2 in the future? Do you think this will invigorate the player community, and introduce new possibilities, to such a degree that this incentivizes Blizzard to announce new content in 2021?\nThis question asks:\nIn 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI?\nNew content means: \n1) A new game, which would be a third installment (and which may be something Blizzard is already considering, regardless of AI), but is not really necessary considering SC2's remaining popularity.\n2) An expansion pack for StarCraft 2, which would be the third, or even StarCraft, which would be second.\n3) Or a patch that is not as big as an expansion, but is unprecedented in scale and scope relative to all previous patches. This means it has to be something more than and distinct from:\n-new skins, -new maps, -or more balance patches, \nall three of which occur pretty routinely.\nNew contents must be announced in the form of an official Blizzard press release. (Or, in the unlikely event of the IP getting sold, whoever owns StarCraft). For new content to count as a \"response\" to AI, the press release or marketing for the game must mention AI, neural networks, Alphastar, either as having motivated the change, or been involved in the development of the content in some way.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:53.513Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks &amp; data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:41:58.986Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 449,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:04.537Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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},
{
"title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:15.064Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.\nA brief overview on her:\nMerkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety. \nWith the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.\nShe’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag. \nGiven the recent controversies and [the rise of populist right-wing party AfD](https://www.infratest-dimap.de/en/analyses-results/nationwide/vote-intention/) that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a [grand coalition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)) would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.\nThus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:20.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 388,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-24T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-10-21T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:25.505Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:30.808Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 198,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\nIn 2008 an [informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford](https://www.webcitation.org/6YxiCAV0p?url=http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/gcr-report.pdf) yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'.\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100? \nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:36.524Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 747,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-09T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:47.792Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:53.143Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-01T23:48:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:48:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6888/10-grand-slam-winner/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. Winning multiple of these titles is a very impressive achievement.\nAs of writing there are [8 players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Grand_Slam_men%27s_singles_champions#Most_Grand_Slam_singles_titles) who have won 10 of these tournaments:\n---Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal: 20 \n---Novak Djokovic: 18 \n---Pete Sampras: 16 \n---Roy Emerson: 12 \n---Rod Laver, Björn Borg: 11 \n---Bill Tilden: 10 \nThree of the players at the top of this list are still active today (Federer, Nadal and Djokovic). They are widely considered the greatest of all time. \nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"In what year will the next man win his 10th Slam title?\". The answer given was \"2042\".\nWhen will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title?\nThis question will resolve based on credible media reports, on the date of the player's final tournament win.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:42:58.340Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 11,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2071-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2081-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make &lt;$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:03.935Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 302,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&amp;v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:15.908Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.\nAgain, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere n is a positive integer.\nThe Conjecture is that for all integer inputs the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1).\nFor any particular execution of the Collatz program, there are three possible outcomes:\n1) It moves up and down through input arguments of different sizes, until it encounters a power of 2, and then cascades down to 1, and halts.\n2) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes until it repeats a number. From that point onward it will repeat a cycle, and never halt.\n3) It moves up and down through numbers of different sizes, but keeps expanding its frontier of numerical size, without ever repeating an input or encountering a power of 2. In this case, it will never halt.\nPer [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture), Jeffrey Lagarias in 2010 claimed that based only on known information about this problem, \"this is an extraordinarily difficult problem, completely out of reach of present day mathematics.\"\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture (i.e. that the Collatz Program halts for all integer inputs) in a major Mathematics journal before June 21, 2520. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time. \nIf the Conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:21.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 204,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:26.743Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T15:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) \nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nBy 2030, will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? \nResolution is positive if by Jan 1, 2030 there exists a reasonable existence proof of a computing system that can be employed to perform this task for &lt; $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for &lt; $1000 USD. We'll assume 2018 dollars for this.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:32.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 172,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:37.727Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 156,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:42.982Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 146,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:48.300Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7011/eu-gdp-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nFor the purposes of this question, the EU will considered to be the 27 member countries as of April 2021, they are listed in full in the fine print. That is, if one of these countries leaves, their emissions will still be counted, and if a new country joins, its emissions will not be counted.\nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available.\nThe member countries of the EU are:\nAustria \nItaly\nBelgium \nLatvia\nBulgaria \nLithuania\nCroatia \nLuxembourg\nCyprus \nMalta\nCzechia \nNetherlands\nDenmark \nPoland\nEstonia \nPortugal\nFinland \nRomania\nFrance \nSlovakia\nGermany \nSlovenia\nGreece \nSpain\nHungary \nSweden\nIreland \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:53.935Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:43:59.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 204,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as &gt;2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:06.378Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:12.796Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.29000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:18.015Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The End of NAFTA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The North American Free Trade Agreement [(NAFTA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty [has proved beneficial](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas-economic-impact) to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a [strong negative effect](https://www.citizen.org/sites/default/files/nafta-at-20.pdf) on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the [rise of a populist backlash in the US](http://www.nber.org/papers/w23559).\nDuring his election campaign last year, [US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA](http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/trump-nafta-goals-draw-from-tpp-campaign-240652) as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration [recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states.](http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/11/politics/trump-nafta-canada-mexico/index.html,) However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was [vocal in his dislike](http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Bernie_Sanders_Free_Trade.htm) of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.\nWe hence ask: \nwill the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025? \nThis question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:23.443Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 259,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-10-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-10-30T20:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England &amp; Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:29.071Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are:\n---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) \n---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) \n---[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier%E2%80%93stokes-equation) \n---[P versus NP problem](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem) \n---[Poincaré conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincar%C3%A9-conjecture) \n---[Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis) \n---[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang%E2%80%93mills-and-mass-gap) \nTo date, the only Millennium Prize problem to have been solved is the Poincaré conjecture, which was solved in 2003 by the Russian mathematician Grigori Perelman. He declined the prize money.\nThis question asks:\nWill the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?\nThe question will resolve when the next Millennium Prize Problem is announced as solved by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or, in case that is no longer possible, as soon as consensus in the mathematics community is reached that the solution is correct. The question will retroactively close on the day before the first publication of the announcement of the solution by the authors.\nThe question will resolve positive if most of the major novel elements of the solution were primarily discovered trough the use of AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n---Creating the AI system. \n---Feeding the system with previously established knowledge. \n---Stating the problem in a form understandable by the AI. \n---Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans. \n---Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution. \nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.\nThe question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.\nIf the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:34.322Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 178,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Pax Romana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Romana) was a period of relative peace, which lasted for approximately 206 years from 27 BC to AD 180. The peace was not absolute, though, and the historian Walter Goffart wrote, \"The volume of the Cambridge Ancient History for the years A.D. 70–192 is called 'The Imperial Peace', but peace is not what one finds in its pages\".\nSimilarly, there have been wars in the post-ww2 era, despite the era being relatively peaceful. The post-WW2 peace has also lasted for only about 72 years as of the writing of this question, making it only about 35% as long as the Pax Romana. In order to last as long as the Pax Romana, our peace would have to endure until 2151.\nThere are many things threatening peace, from seemingly perpetual unrest in the middle-east to an increasingly tense situation on the Korean peninsula. Yet, a major global conflict in the near future seems unlikely.\nWhen predicting whether a major global conflict will occur within a longer timeframe, effects such as climate change and rising inequality (potentially due to AI?) might play a bigger role and the probability of conflict becomes more uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will a world war begin before January 1st 2151?\nWe define a world war as a war that either, \n---involves at least 50% of the world's countries, representing at least 50% of the world's population, with countries on at least 4 different continents participating and that kills at least 0.5% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. OR \n---involves at least 10% of the world's countries, representing at least 25% of the world's population, with countries on at least 3 different continents participating and that kills at least 1% of the global population at the beginning of the war within 10 years. \nThe beginning time of the hypothetical war will be defined as the time when for the first time at least 5% of the world's nations were involved in the war or countries representing at least 5% of the world's population were involved in the war.\nShould there be countries that have not declared war, but for whom the sum of the fatalities they have suffered and those they have inflicted on others exceeds 10000 within the first 10 years of the war, those countries should be counted as having participated in the war.\nGiven the extremely long timeframe of the question and that the likelihood of getting reliable data on fatality counts might be slim (use a geometric mean if given several estimates), I think it is unwise to predict on this question with points in mind.\nStill, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has been set to January 1st 2161, to provide for 10 years after January 1st 2151.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:40.523Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 392,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2161-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:45.761Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next human being walk on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.\nLess than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.\nWhen will the next human being walk on the Moon? \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:44:52.599Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 321,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-02-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-02-14T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-02-14T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:03.276Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:09.163Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 240,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy &gt;90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (&gt;230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that &gt;230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as &gt;31 December 2022. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:14.986Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1002,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:20.520Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:25.857Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 152,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T02:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many of the \"priority paths\" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:31.110Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-31T14:07:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having &gt;50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:36.348Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://(https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler)). \nHow many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:41.797Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 127,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-05-10T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:47.278Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:52.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 175,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves &gt;2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:45:59.334Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 140,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.\nOverall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.\nWhile deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.\nHow many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?\nResolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:04.656Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-20T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:09.847Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:15.275Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:20.496Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the United States admit a new state?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"&gt; Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:25.826Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 191,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the fraction of English books that mention\"Deep Learning\" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7111/when-will-peak-deep-learning-be/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Deep Learning Book, an excellent reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason, we call this approach to AI deep learning\nGoogle Books Ngram Viewer is an online search engine that charts the frequencies of any set of search strings using a yearly count of [n-grams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-gram) found in sources printed from 1500 onward.\nWhen will the fraction of English books that mention\"Deep Learning\" peak, over the 2021 to 2045 period (inclusive)?\nThis question resolves on the basis of Google's [Ngram viewer](https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=%22deep+learning%22&amp;year_start=1800&amp;year_end=2019&amp;corpus=26&amp;smoothing=0&amp;direct_url=t1%3B%2C%22%20deep%20learning%20%22%3B%2Cc0). The relevant search will be of English texts for case-insensitive terms. The \"Smoothing\" term will be set to 0. If that is not possible, we will use the default \"Smoothing\" settings.\nTo pinpoint a specific resolution date, this question resolves as the first of the year when the peak is reached. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:31.302Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:37.516Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:43.012Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 115,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:49.644Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).\nSince approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:\nRoughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.\nIn the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?\nResolution\nEstimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food &amp; Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:46:54.828Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"&gt; Oct 2, 2035\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:00.637Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:05.919Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (&lt;=60% accuracy for a binary task, &lt;=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:16.576Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the election of Xi Jinping, China has substantially slowed or stopped its previous trend of gradually increasing openness to and economic integration with the outside world.\nThe Covid-19 pandemic has only accelerated the [decoupling](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/28/2003733510) of China's economy from the US. China has [banned](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/26/821972324/china-temporarily-closes-its-borders-to-foreign-nationals) the entry of foreign nationals and regards those inside its border with [suspicion](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-foreigners/foreigners-face-suspicion-in-china-as-coronavirus-worsens-overseas-idUSKBN21E1DU).\nThis question asks, will Mainland China be less open to the world in 2030 than it was in 2010?\nSpecifically, will the number of foreign nationals living in China as reported on the 8th national census (assuming it takes place in 2030) be less than the number reported on the [6th national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sixth_National_Population_Census_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China) in 2010?\nThe question resolves positively if the number of foreign nationals residing in Mainland China reported in the 8th census is lower than the number reported in the 6th census (593,832).\nThe question resolves negatively if the number reported in the 8th census census is greater than or equal to the number from the 6th census.\nIf for some reason the 8th national census is not conducted in 2030, or the results are not available by the closing date (Dec 31,2032), the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:21.888Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-06T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:27.181Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 403,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be &gt;=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"&gt; Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:32.403Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician, broadcaster, and political analyst currently serving as leader of the Brexit Party since March 2019 and as a Member of the European Parliament for the South East England constituency since 1999. He is best known as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and again from 2010 to 2016.\nFarage's decades-long campaign for the UK to leave the European Union culminated in the [2016 Brexit vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which the UK voted to withdraw from the EU. Since that vote, the UK has failed to achieve a negotiated exit from the EU and has agreed to extend the negotiating period until October 31 2019. \nIn May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Parliament elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom), becoming by far the largest party by number of UK seats in the European Parliament, and also the largest single party overall in the European Parliament. \nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?\nResolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:37.690Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 241,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-05-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-07T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.\nNigeria is often referred to as the \"Giant of Africa\", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)\nNigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_content=tictoc&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999. \nAbout 80 percent of people who earn an income are active in the informal sector or have what the UN calls “vulnerable employment,” work that lacks social security or guarantees any kind of rights. The number of destitute in Nigeria is believed to be growing by six people every minute, [according to a recent paper from The Brookings Institution.](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/06/19/the-start-of-a-new-poverty-narrative/) The UN expects Nigeria's population to more than double to 410 million by 2050, potentially swelling the ranks of the poor.\nThis question asks: On or before 1 January 2050, will Nigeria's population be at least 400 million people?\nResolution should cite figures from the United Nations, World Health Organisation, competent statistical authorities in Nigeria or similarly credible data. The data need not be available on 1 January 2050; but it must provide population figures for that date or earlier.\nResolves ambiguously if Nigeria no longer exists as an independent country in January 2050.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:43.162Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 152,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-25T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:48.725Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:54.094Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 391,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:47:59.409Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 158,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of \"minutes\" (and [recently \"seconds\"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.\nThis question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?\nThis resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. \nIf resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to &gt; 2100-01-01.\nIf either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:04.726Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 107,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When Half-Life was released in 1998 it was quickly hailed as one of the greatest first person shooters of all time and its sequel Half-Life 2's release in 2004 was no less successful, spawning two expansions in the form of Half-Life 2: Episode One and Half-Life 2: Episode Two which ended on a cliffhanger in 2007. A third installment was promised but never materialize and since then Half-Life 3 has become something of a running joke in the PC gaming community. \nGabe Newell is the co-founder and president of the Valve Corperation. He's in his mid-fifties and apart from his weight appears to be in fair health. \nGiven the sheer value of the Half-Life franchise it's reasonable to assume that Half-Life 3 will be released at some point in the future but at present it seems that Valve is significantly more interested in pursuing other projects.\nWill Half-Life 3 come out while Gabe Newell is alive? \nQuestion resolves positive if Half-Life 3 (or an equivalent continuation of the series under a different title) releases before Gabe Newell's Death.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:10.472Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-06-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:17.520Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:23.087Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 51,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:28.288Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Hubble \"constant\", , is basically the current expansion rate of the universe (the expansion rate varies with time). Two main ways to [determine the value of ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble%27s_law#Measured_values_of_the_Hubble_constant) are based on different approaches contrasting early universe vs late universe methodologies. The issue is that the values determined by these two independent methods have now widened to the point where there is a significant statistical difference of approximately 4 to 5 sigma between the two, despite the increasing precision of each method's results over time. This difference is now widely considered among experts as having become a problem for the [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model) (or even, among some, as a crisis). Continuing observational projects and theoretical work have been dedicated at attempts to understand and resolve the discrepancy.\nA mid-July 2019 [workshop at the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics at UCSB](https://www.kitp.ucsb.edu/activities/enervac-c19) was convened to bring together both experimental and theoretical researchers in the field to review and assess the current state of affairs and identify promising next steps at resolution. The coordinators for this event drafted a paper [Tensions between the Early and the Late Universe](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625) summarizing the event proceedings. An image from this paper plotting the different values determined by the various methods is [at this link](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg). \nVideos and slides of the talks are available [at this conference website link](http://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/enervac-c19/). There are also a number of excellent recent science media articles about this issue, e.g. (in descending published date order) by [Natalie Wolchover](https://www.quantamagazine.org/cosmologists-debate-how-fast-the-universe-is-expanding-20190808/), [Emily Conover](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/debate-universe-expansion-rate-hubble-constant-physics-crisis), [Josh Sokol](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/07/debate-intensifies-over-speed-expanding-universe), and [Davide Castelvecchi](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02198-z). There is also a [twitter hashtag](https://twitter.com/search?q=kitp_h0ttakes&amp;src=typed_query&amp;f=live) devoted to the workshop activity with, e.g., some of the participants tweeting their live reactions during the workshop.\nSome examples of areas under investigation for a possible eventual resolution include: (a) identifying and correcting systematic errors in the various determination methods, (b) an [early dark energy](https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.04083) injection prior to recombination, (c) [nonstandard neutrino physics](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.00534), (d) gravity modifications, and in general (e) searching for a discovery of new physics that modifies or replaces the current [ΛCDM standard model of cosmology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lambda-CDM_model). As an overview for possible ways forward, a new paper, [The Hubble Hunter's Guide](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.03663), attempts \"to consider the broadest possible set of potential cosmological solutions to reconcile\" the opposing observations.\nThe question asks:\nBy 01-Jan-2030, will the source(s) of the current tension in H0 results be resolved without a need to replace the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?\nA [criteria that was suggested for determining consensus on a resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-the-measured-values-of-the-hubble-constant-h_0-be-resolved-by-2030/#comment-15872) is to poll researchers working on this issue near the question close date, asking what sigma they ascribe to the discrepancy, assuming ΛCDM. A positive resolution results if the mean of replies by at least 5 polled cosmologists is &lt; 2 sigma. A mean of &gt; 4 sigma resolves as negative; between 2 and 3 is an indeterminate resolution. \nFootnote: Examples of early universe methods - Planck, DES+BAO+BBN versus late time methods - SH0ES, CCHP, H0LiCOW, MIRAS, Megamasers, Surface Brightness Fluctuations. See [this graphic](https://i.imgur.com/iDBM8hD.jpg) for an illustrative plot of the differences. More information on these methods is in the [conference summary paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10625). Note that by 2030, H_0 determinations from [gravitational wave standard sirens](https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07775) is likely to have become a robust late time method.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:33.545Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Consider figure 15 from [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.14701.pdf#page=18).\nSome people (arguably the authors of this paper) predict that as we scale models past GPT-3's size (the 10^11 parameter learning curve, models with parameter count X trained on X elapsed tokens will score close to the L(D) line at X elapsed tokens.\nWe are interested in whether instead the trendline will \"plateau\" or at least be substantially slower than the line L(D) by the end of the next 3 orders of magnitude of parameter count. For the sake of specificity, let's say substantially slower = less than half as steep as L(D) on this graph.\nIf and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?\nThis question resolves positively if the relevant experiment is done and reported (extending this graph, or providing equivalent data) and the slope of the learning curve for the 10^14 parameter model around 10^14 data points (Say, from 10^12 to 10^14) is less than half as steep as the slope of L(D). It resolves negatively if instead the slope is at least half as steep as L(D).\nThis question also resolves positively (or negatively) if it becomes uncontroversial what would have happened if the experiment had been done. For example, maybe other experiments will provide much more evidence about neural net scaling trends in general, such that it will be easy to calculate what would happen with this one in particular.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if by 2050 no one has performed the experiment AND there is no consensus about what would have happened if someone had.\nThe Metaculus moderators are the judge of final resort for determining whether and how to resolve this question.\nFor more context, see the comment threads below (Search for \"It's a big deal.\")\nIt is important that the data used to extend the graph be of similar quality. Obviously if we just threw in 10^14 tokens of basic arithmetic problems, the model would get good at basic arithmetic but not at anything else, and it's unclear whether the result would be on-trend or not. Ideally we'd have 10e14 tokens of diverse internet text, scanned books, chat logs, emails, etc. If this experiment gets done with different-quality data, the question becomes whether it gives us enough evidence to uncontroversial predict what would have happened if we had done it with similar-quality data. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:38.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T11:37:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:37:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:44.243Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 194,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the first in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nNot to be confused with the street drug formulations that (sometimes) contain MDMA along with various adulterants, pure MDMA has long been indicated as effective therapy for a range of conditions. Although the hurdles to a radical reversal in drug policy (MDMA is a Schedule 1 drug in the US, meaning officially speaking, it has no approved therapeutic use) are numerous, there have been a number of positive developments of late. \nIn 2017, MDMA was designated a \"breakthrough therapy\". [From CBS News:](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/us/ecstasy-molly-ptsd-mdma.html) \nAccording to the FDA's website, a designation of \"breakthrough therapy\" simply means the agency will expedite the review of the drug and potential approval. The status is granted when \"preliminary clinical evidence indicates that the drug may demonstrate substantial improvement\" over other available therapies.\nAnd in January, the ensuing clinical trials were wrapping up. [From Newsweek:](https://www.newsweek.com/mdma-ptsd-therapy-enters-final-round-trials-could-be-approved-us-and-canada-786309)\nThe final round of clinical trials for MDMA assisted psychotherapy is kicking off in Vancouver, leading the way for Canada and the United States to approve the drug for therapeutic use as early as 2021.\nThe third and final phase of trials gets underway after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) designated MDMA as a “breakthrough therapy” for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in August 2017, ensuring that it will work with advocates to complete the last phase quickly.\nThe [results](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(18)30135-4/fulltext) of these trials have been extremely promising, and have [spurred renewed interest](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/mdma-ecstasy-mdma-post-traumatic-stress-disorder-veterans-a8332561.html) in the therapy.\nLarge-scale trials, which will include up to 300 participants at 14 sites, may not be able to replicate the success of previous trials, which were limited to a few dozen patients. But so far, results are encouraging. Nearly all patients saw clinically significant reductions in symptoms, and a majority saw such drastic reductions that they no longer met the criteria for a PTSD diagnosis. In the 12 months after MDMA therapy, PTSD symptoms generally continued to decrease.\nSide effects, including anxiety, headache, fatigue, muscle tension and insomnia, were generally minor and limited to the days following the MDMA sessions.\nOther researchers, intrigued by the results, are starting their own studies of MDMA therapy, including the Department of Veterans Affairs.\nThe non-profit Multidisciplinary Association For Psychedelic Studies is funding the trials, and plans to spend nearly $27M in an attempt to gain prescription approval for the drug by 2021. \nWith the Breakthrough Therapy \"fast track\" designation on their side, will MAPS succeed? Or will bureaucratic red tape, pharmaceutical industry muscle, deep-seated distrust of psychedelic drugs and/or disappointing test results push the acceptance of MDMA as an FDA-approved treatment for PTSD further into the future?\nTo resolve positively, a credible media story or a MAPS-affiliated press release must report that MDMA has been approved as a prescription drug in the US prior to January 1st, 2025. \nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 80% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:49.500Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 225,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-28T05:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) \"the market value of all the final goods and services produced\". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.\nOne notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).\nDenmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?\nResolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:48:54.747Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:00.151Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-04-02T22:14:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:06.121Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:11.620Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:17.363Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&amp;_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender &amp; Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:22.613Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 35,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The synthetic biology industry has boomed over the last twenty years. Presaged by Michael Crichton's 1990 novel Jurassic Park, serious discussion has begun as to whether it is possible (or advisable) to revive extinct species for which a sequenced genome can be recovered. \n[Pet cloning services](http://investors.dna.com/2015-10-13-Intrexon-Subsidiary-ViaGen-Pets-Announces-Successful-Delivery-of-Healthy-Kittens) and [fully-synthetic organisms](http://www.jcvi.org/cms/press/press-releases/full-text/article/first-self-replicating-synthetic-bacterial-cell-constructed-by-j-craig-venter-institute-researcher/home/), once the domain of science fiction, are now a reality. The dinosaurs of Michael Chrichton's imagination may be a longshot, but due to the preservation-friendly climate of their natural habitat, the woolly mammoth appears to be a strong candidate for [\"de-extinction\"](https://www.amazon.com/How-Clone-Mammoth-Science-Extinction-ebook/dp/B00QMV6S6Q?ie=UTF8&amp;btkr=1&amp;redirect=true&amp;ref_=dp-kindle-redirect): there have been dozens of documented findings of [intact frozen mammoths](http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/05/mammoths/mueller-text), dating back as early as 1700. Efforts thus far have yielded many news stories but [little in the way of demonstrable success](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-16068581). However, some recent advances in genetic engineering tools like CRISPR/Cas9 have allowed for some intermediate progress; one group reported that they had [successfully cloned woolly mammoth genes into a modern-day elephant](http://www.popsci.com/woolly-mammoth-dna-brought-life-elephant-cells).\nStudies like these seem to be [bolstering confidence](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/247402?utm_source=Social&amp;utm_medium=Sharebar&amp;utm_campaign=Sumome_share) in the scientific and business communities, but the obstacles lying before them are far greater than simply research or money. The human capability to revive a long-dead species has moral implications that have just barely been explored: do we have a right to bring back such species? Or even a duty, considering that homo sapiens probably cause many of them to go extinct? These become particularly poignant when considering bringing back a species such as [neanderthals](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12886.html).\nOn a ten-year timescale, will there be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years (like the woolly mammoth)?\nResolution is positive if a mammal, reptile, or avian species extinct for over 1,000 years is full reconstructed in one or more living examples of age at least 3 months from birth.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:27.872Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 642,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-05-07T13:15:21Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-06-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the \"right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.\"\nAll this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).\nAs such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.\nFurther complicated is this by the lack of consensus positions and opinions in constitutional law, since these powers were very rarely needed, let alone used.\nYet the German government retains these capabilities, hesitant as it may be, to issue decrees that overrule, countermand and limit states rights and powers if the federal government deems them necessary [in light of catastrophic circumstances](https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/notstandsgesetze-deutschland-101.html).\nAs the saying goes, sometimes needs must.\nWill Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?\n---Resolves positively if the Federal government infringes on states rights and powers in direct relation to COVID-19 before 2022. \n---Resolves negatively if such an infringement doesn’t happen. \n---Resolves ambiguously if an emergency acts / decrees infringement occurs during the 2020 pandemic that is not immediately related to COVID-19. \n---This question will close retroactively 3 days before such an emergency act or decree is announced, whether it’s actually applied or not. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:33.115Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 239,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-15T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-03-14T11:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "With the progressive centralization of social policy comes a conflict:\n---Decreasing practicality of experimental control groups to infer social causality. \nvs.\n---Increasing ethical responsibility to predict outcomes caused by policies that affect larger numbers of humans that did not individually provide informed consent to the experimental treatments. \nSocial scientists play a critical role in resolving this conflict – a conflict that is contributing to [a decrease in political civility](https://youtu.be/Jo3_ie_Cr94). Radically-conflicting macrosocial models formed from a vast grab-bag of microsocial models are ill-suited to this resolution. The resulting incommensurable macrosocial models, and their unprincipled selection for application during partisan politics, may be resolved with an advance in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) theory stating that given a set of observations, the most-predictive of existing models is the one that can most-compress those observations without loss. \nThis is the topic of [Marvin Minsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky)'s final advice to predictors:\nIt seems to me that the most important discovery since Gödel was the discovery by Chaitin, Solomonoff and Kolmogorov of the concept called Algorithmic Probability which is a fundamental new theory of how to make predictions given a collection of experiences and this is a beautiful theory, everybody should learn it, but it’s got one problem, that is, that you cannot actually calculate what this theory predicts because it is too hard, it requires an infinite amount of work. However, it should be possible to make practical approximations to the Chaitin, Kolmogorov, Solomonoff theory that would make better predictions than anything we have today. Everybody should learn all about that and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\n— ​​​Marvin Minsky [Panel discussion on The Limits of Understanding](https://youtu.be/DfY-DRsE86s?t=5403) World Science Festival, NYC, Dec 14, 2014\nFor some insight, you can watch the Nature video [\"Remodeling Machine Learning: An AI That Thinks Like a Scientist\"](https://youtu.be/rkmz7DAA-t8) based on [H. Zenil, N. A. Kiani, A. A. Zea, and J. Tegner, “Causal deconconvolution by algorithmic generative models,” Nature Machine Intelligence, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 58, 2019.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-018-0005-0)\nQuestion: Prior to 2030, will fewer than 10 social science papers use the size of losslessly compressed data as the model selection criterion among [macrosociology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrosociology) models? \nA paper is counted toward resolution if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nIt compares at least 2 macrosociology models by the degree to which they have losslessly compressed the same dataset.\n2-- \nIt has the keywords \"macrosociology\" or \"macroeconomic\" or some obvious derivation of these such as \"macrosocial\" or \"macroeconomics\".\n3-- \nIt defines \"size\" as the length of the decompression program plus the length of the compressed data. The salient characteristic of \"length\" is that it be measured in bits. i.e. the combination serves as a [self-extracting archive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-extracting_archive) of the dataset and may, indeed, be measured in that unified form. This definition of \"size\" is used to award cash in [The Hutter Prize for Lossless Compression of Human Knowledge](http://prize.hutter1.net/hrules.htm) and is also used as a [a language modeling benchmark](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-hutter-prize). \n4-- \nIt defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorithmic resources. e.g. it produces the original dataset using the same virtual machine a.k.a. a Universal Turing Machine environment.\n5-- \nIt is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:38.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-11-20T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z"
},
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{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:43.971Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 111,
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"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
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{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Brant von Goble and John C Leven summarize the reasons for their respective sides [here](http://longbets.org/676/). \nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Brant von Goble the winner then this question resolves positively. If they declare John C Leven the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:49.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:54.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 804,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-15T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.\nHis statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that \"It's always 'the end of the year.'\"\nThe company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the \"feather\" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.\nWhen will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:49:59.946Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-05-23T23:24:48Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&amp;q=beyond+meat+market+cap&amp;meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:05.382Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).\nWhen will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?\nResolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.\nThe question resolves as \"&gt;2040\" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:16.428Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:21.788Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2039-11-27T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:27.176Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 570,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3063/bitcoin-lightning-network-capacity-in-btc-on-2021-aug-25/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the [lightning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network) [network](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp). A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.\nAt 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by [bitcoinvisuals.com](https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity)?\nDifferent sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on [bitcoinvisuals.com](http://bitcoinvisuals.com) simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to [1ml.com](http://1ml.com), and then a third source if needed.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:32.458Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 159,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-25T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-25T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3432/philpapers-survey-mini-series-biological-ness-of-race/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological, as opposed to being social or unreal?\nSee [here for a discussion](https://philpeople.org/feed_items/49518082) of this question by Chalmers.\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:37.723Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.\nSome crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.\nWill any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if any prediction market causes more than $1 million in losses to users before 2023. This includes if the cause is hacking, an exit scam by the operators, a glitch causing funds to be lost, or an unambiguously incorrect resolution on some questions. For example, if a prediction market would pay out today that Trump won the 2020 election, that would count. Losses from predictions being resolved correctly do not count. Losses from coins losing value in exchange rate do not count unless the prediction platform in question was primarily used with a stablecoin tied to a major fiat currency, and that stablecoin ended up hacked/locked/significantly lower value/etc.\nThe $1 million can be from multiple different events, as long as it's on a single platform or site.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:43.609Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-02T01:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T01:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:48.845Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 165,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [\"nones\" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.\nPer a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):\n1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).\nAt the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that \n[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.\nImportantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the \"general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,\" but it is \"not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.\" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.\nConsidering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: \nWhat will the portion of the global population identifying as \"religiously unaffiliated\" be in 2050? \nThe resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for \"religiously unaffiliated\" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:54.151Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 202,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Telegram Open Network was a cryptocurrency project that would allow to make transactions within Telegram messenger. It was [cancelled](https://www.interactivecrypto.com/telegram-cancels-telegram-open-network-and-grams-project) after a lawsuit initiated by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the USA.\nAfter that, a group of developers [forked](https://cryptopotato.com/free-ton-forks-to-decentralized-independence-in-telegram-token-sales-departure/) the project under name [FreeTON](https://freeton.org/) to develop it independently from Telegram messenger.\nWill the FreeTON project be successful and widely used for online payments?\nThis question will resolve positively if there will be at least 50 online shops that accept FreeTON at the resolution date, or if there will be publically available data from trusted online source showing that total amount of payments with FreeTON is more than $1M per month at the resolution date. Otherwise, the question will resolve negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:50:59.523Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-08-31T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Tennis has four major events each season: Australian Open, Rolland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. As part of these competitions there are many different events (Men's and Women's Singles and Doubles, Mixed Doubles, Boys and Girls Singles and Doubles etc).\nAs part of [The Tennis Abstract Podcast's 100th episode](http://www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2021/03/17/podcast-episode-100-100-questions-for-episode-100/) it was asked \"Will mixed doubles be part of all four Slams in 2040?\". The answer given was \"No\".\nWill mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040?\nThis question will resolve according to whether or not all four slam events hold a mixed doubles competition with elite players. we define a mixed doubles competition to be an elite competition if it includes:\n---at least 4 teams with men in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 4 teams with women in the top 100 (singles or doubles ranking) \n---at least 10 teams in total (ie more than straight quarterfinals, but byes in the first round are acceptable) \nIf the list of tournaments which are considered a slam changes, we will limit the list to the four which most resemble the historic 4.\nIn the event no slams take place in 2040, we will resolve based the nearest year with earlier taking preference, ie 2039, 2041, 2038, 2042, etc\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:04.908Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 11,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2038-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&amp;source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:10.418Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 144,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:15.612Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 114,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:20.985Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 176,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\n[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.\nWhen will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken \"ingredients\" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:26.209Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 81,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:32.197Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-05-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:37.514Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 371,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nThere is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). \nWhen will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??\nResolution\nThis resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.\nFor the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: \n1-- \ntechniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and\n2-- \nat least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.\nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:42.784Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T01:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-02-20T01:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted \"[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)\".\nThere has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:\nWe openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”\nHowever, there are also theories claiming that some of these insurance files constitute a \"[dead man's switch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch)\" that is only to be released in case something bad were to happen to Assange or to WikiLeaks.\nResolution: If the key to any WikiLeaks insurance file released before 2020 is publicly available on January 1, 2030, this question resolves positively. In particular, it does not matter whether WikiLeaks intentionally decides to release the key or some hacker leaks it; as long as the key is publicly available, it counts.\nIn the past the media falsely reported that the key to insurance.aes256 was leaked. Therefore, to ensure accurate resolution, we will rely on the discretion of Metaculus moderators. As a guideline, there should be an independent, tech-savvy demonstration that the key actually unlocks the given insurance file.\nFor the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files publicly released before 2020 count. I believe the following list is comprehensive, but I cannot guarantee that there are no omissions or errors.\n---Date: 2010-07-28, Size: 1.4 GB, Name: insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2012-02-22, Size: 65 GB, Name: wikileaks-insurance-20120222.tar.bz2.aes \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 3.6 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-A.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 49 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-B.aes256 \n---Date: 2013-08-15, Size: 349 GB, Name: wlinsurance-20130815-C.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-06-03, Size: 88 GB, Name: 2016-06-03_insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 512 MB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_EC.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 1.3 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_UK.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-11-07, Size: 3.0 GB, Name: 2016-11-07_WL-Insurance_US.aes256 \n---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256 \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:48.025Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7033/hashing-with-biocomputers/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A significant amount of energy, money, and energy is currently (as of 2021) being devoted to performing SHA-256 hashes, because these are the basic operation of bitcoin mining, so that the ability to perform energy efficient hashes is economically rewarded.\n[Biocomputers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_computing) are a promising but very nascent idea to perform digital operations using complex biological molecules — for example enzymes operating on DNA or RNA.\nIn principle, biocomputers could perform an immense number of computations in parallel using very little energy. In particular, in very round numbers, the bitcoin network is (as of mid 2021) performing about [100M terahashes/s](https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate), or hashes/second. That's really a lot. But imagine a biocomputer in which a fairly long strand of DNA (say 10^6 atoms) and some large enzymes ( atoms each) compute a hash — so about atoms at most. A hash is probably of order simple (bitwise) operations. DNA polymerase can act on about 700 base pairs second; so let's suppose it takes 100-1000 seconds to do a hash. Then we'd need about atoms working the problem to outcompute the rest of the world (of 2021). But that's just a small vat of chemicals.\nWhen will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?\nResolves when a biocomputer is demonstrated to either perform a SHA256 hash, or a complex calculation with thousands of operations judged by Metaculus staff to be roughly as difficult as such a hash.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:53.254Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens &lt;18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict &lt;18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if &lt;18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising &lt;70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:51:58.607Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-06-30T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-03T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:04.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:09.741Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 223,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \"&gt;\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:20.395Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 135,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2201-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There is [theoretical](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382922/) and [observational](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20143339v2) data suggesting SSRI antidepressants might be helpful for Covid. Fluvoxamine (brand name Luvox) is an SSRI with [strong Sigma1R activation](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24508523/), which [may also be relevant](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x).\nA recent [small preregistered RCT](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2773108) of Fluvoxamine reported a very positive effect, as did a not-yet-published [observational report](https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AOES37qSxYr%5FN88&amp;cid=F3C3887684911EE4&amp;id=F3C3887684911EE4%2163948&amp;parId=F3C3887684911EE4%2159777&amp;o=OneUp). A [larger trial is underway](https://stopcovidtrial.wustl.edu/) by the same investigators as the first one.\nSummaries of the case for Fluvoxamine are available [here](https://www.treatearly.org/promising-drugs) and [here](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1u7resy2bGA1_HIgj6Nc7ahzeS7DrpOtkiK5ywhQhmpk/edit#slide=id.gaeebd14cc9_0_79) from the director of a nonprofit which partially funded both trials. A writeup from WIRED magazine can be found [here](https://www.wired.com/story/how-a-medication-for-ocd-ended-up-in-a-covid-19-trial/).\nThis question asks:\nBefore 2022, will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2022, the US FDA grants an emergency use authorization for the use of Fluvoxamine as a treatment for Covid.\nIn the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use authorisation, this question will resolve positive.\nIf an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question.\nThis resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:25.985Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-09T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:31.400Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:37.456Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-31T19:42:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.\nTherefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?\nA positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.\nDue to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:42.899Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 560,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:48.398Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&amp;ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:53.658Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 192,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:52:59.256Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:04.485Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 71,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:09.727Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:14.978Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&amp;search=rittenhouse&amp;created=2&amp;submit.x=0&amp;submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&amp;gsc.q=rittenhouse&amp;gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:20.395Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 615,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:25.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:31.778Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 298,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:37.625Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6891/migrant-deaths-in-the-mediterranean-in-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Thousands of migrants and refugees die or go missing every year in the Mediterranean when trying to reach European soil [according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees](https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean).\nHow many migrants will die or go missing in the Mediterranean in 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of people \"Dead and missing\" in 2022 according to [UNHCR data](https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/mediterranean).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:42.785Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-10-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:\n--- \nEnsure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.\n--- \nBuild a stronger, more resilient nation.\n--- \nRally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change\n--- \nStand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.\n--- \nFulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.\nIn order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\nResolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:48.029Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 159,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-10T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-08-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:53:53.296Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 408,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-15T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to &gt; 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:03.730Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 154,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:08.969Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:14.194Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-08-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will zettascale computing be achieved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:19.465Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2070-01-02T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-04T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people &lt;18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:24.754Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-23T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2032-07-01T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-05T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:30.144Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 62,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential \"modes\" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality). \nOf the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.\nACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or \"uploading\") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.) \nBoth modes raise a very tricky challenge of deciding how much to simulate. The sensory stream of an individual mind should be no challenge several decades from now. On the other hand, an ab-initio full simulation of physical reality for a region even of solar-system size seems likely to require a completely prohibitive amount of computing power using any foreseeable technology. (There are a lot of interesting considerations here, that would take much more space to flesh out.)\nAs a definite question, we'll ask something about the distant but not impossibly-distant future:\nBy the year 2100, will computer simulations be run with sufficiently high fidelity to the current consensus physical reality experienced by Metaculus users in 2016-2018 that all of the participation in Metaculus thus far and over the coming ~2 years could in practice be so simulated?\nBy implication, if P is the probability given assigned to this question, and Q is the probability that the experience of Metaculus will in fact be simulated given the capability of doing so, then the reader of this question could reasonably attribute a probability exceeding PQ/(1+PQ) to being part of that simulation. The probability could be much higher if many, many such simulations are run, and a flat probability measure is taken over the simulated and real beings, per the discussion in [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/).\nNote that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible, or whether ACSR is possible at all: in particular, the NCVR would have to include implanting of false memories (of a life before Metaculus), and ACSR would have to stand up to close scrutiny by all Metaculus participants for two years, some of which are scientists studying the nature of their reality in quite rigorous method and detail.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:35.861Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 451,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-07-15T17:15:15Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:41.760Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:46.940Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 226,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?\nThis question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).\nIf the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:\n---Let t be the date when the AGI is publicly known, as determined by the above Metaculus question. Let C be the company that developed the AGI. \n---Calculate the total return (including dividends) of C's stock over the period from 12 months prior to t to one month prior to t, inclusive.[1] \n---Over the same period, calculate the total return of the FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists. \n---Calculate the ratio of C's total return over this period to the total return of FTSE. If the ratio is 1.5 or greater, then this question resolves affirmatively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. \nIf the first AGI is not developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves ambiguously.\n[1] In the event that the market is closed on the start/end date, instead use the latest prior date on which the market is open. In the event that the date does not exist, use the latest prior date that exists. For example, if the AGI is developed on December 31, \"one month prior\" is considered to be November 30. If the market is closed on November 30, then use November 29 instead.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:52.192Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.\nWhen will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:\nIn November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.\nIn an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said that he was writing about 1965 and 1966 and a non-chronological section about the relationship between Johnson and Bobby Kennedy. Asked if he still planned to visit Vietnam soon, Caro replied: \"Not yet, no. This is a very long book. And there's a lot to do before that's necessary. I'm getting close to it now.\" In December 2018, it was reported that Caro is still \"several years from finishing\" the volume.\nThe question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.\nIf the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:54:57.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nAs of September 2019, two geoengineering bills and one resolution have been introduced in Congress. These bills are the following:\n1-- \n[Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/4586?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&amp;s=3&amp;r=1). This bill recommends a research agenda for advancing understanding of [albedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo) modification strategies that involve atmospheric interventions, such as cloud modification; and a report that provides specific guidance on the governance mechanisms for the proposed research agenda.\n2-- \n[American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009](https://www.congress.gov/bill/111th-congress/senate-bill/1462?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22%5C%22Climate+engineering%5C%22+%5C%22geoengineering%5C%22+%5C%22Solar+radiation+management%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%5C%22+%5C%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%5C%22+%5C%22Marine+cloud+brightening%5C%22+%5C%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%5C%22%22%7D&amp;s=2&amp;r=2). This bill requires the Secretary of Energy to establish an Advisory Committee on Geosciences and Geoengineering Education to advise the Secretary in education and training in the subsurface geosciences and engineering.\nNeither the Geoengineering Research Evaluation Act of 2017 nor the American Clean Energy Leadership Act of 2009 became legislation. So far, the U.S. has not enacted legislation that are explicitly related to geoengineering. \nWill a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&amp;include=on&amp;wordVariants=on&amp;titles=on&amp;summaries=on&amp;actions=on&amp;congresses%5B0%5D=all&amp;legislationNumbers=&amp;legislativeAction=&amp;sponsor=on&amp;representative=&amp;senator=&amp;searchResultViewType=expanded&amp;q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:02.812Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:14.052Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:19.552Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:30.204Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:35.993Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 131,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Effective Altruism is a philosophy and social movement that uses evidence and reasoning to determine the most effective ways to benefit others. The movement came into being in the late 2000s as a community formed around the groups [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/) and [Givewell](https://www.givewell.org/).\nSince then, [around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/#our-members-have-done-some-amazing-things) to the world’s most effective charities, [thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world]( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyELsX9n85D7M1GKxZ1BndxU9nVFLEPH0eh61g2PI4U/edit#gid=0). Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively[ donate around $5-10M each year]( http://effective-altruism.com/ea/1e1/ea_survey_2017_series_community_demographics/), has resulted in [$170 million+](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/impact/) moved to effective charities, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, [which has made around $600M of charitable grants]( https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants).\nEffective Altruism uses evidence and reasoning to have a substantial and lasting beneficial impact on the World, but will this impact be picked up by Google Trends in a decade's time?\nWill the total interest in [Effective Altruism on Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=Effective%20Altruism) in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?\nTotal interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. \nEdit (29/11/18): this resolves ambigous if Google Trends ceases to exist, or makes substantial enough changes to their methodology for admins to think an ambiguous resolution is required.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:41.522Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-31T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:46.685Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:52.474Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, the US unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April, but has since decreased to 6.7% by November. \nHeading into winter, where outdoor social distancing becomes more difficult, and the holiday season draws people towards socializing with family and friends, COVID-19 deaths peaked over [300,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) with over [2,500](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths) new deaths a day by December 16th. Rising cases and failure to social distance can [push cities back into lockdown](https://www.usatoday.com/storytelling/coronavirus-reopening-america-map/), causing economic duress and a potential return to higher unemployment rates like we saw in Q2 of 2020. \nHowever, as the new vaccine makes its way across America and herd immunity becomes an attainable goal, more people should be able to return to work. As the economy opens and consumption increases, putting money back into the hands of corporations, [employment should increase](https://news.umich.edu/u-m-economists-see-us-growth-slowing-until-coronavirus-vaccine-becomes-broadly-available/).\nFor the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly unemployment occur within Q1?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:55:57.980Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T20:26:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-31T21:26:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)\nThe fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.\nSince the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.\nThis question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by any commercial means to travel between London and New York in less than three hours?\nTo resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.\nThe clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:03.203Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 313,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:08.438Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:13.635Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&amp;range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:18.839Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 13,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:23.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 139,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), &amp; [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:29.229Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:34.484Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as &gt;. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:39.695Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:45.536Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.\nThis question asks:\nHow much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.\nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:50.746Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&amp;utm_term=link&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:56:55.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 384,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:01.339Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:06.688Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 117,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson &amp; Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo &amp; Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter &amp; Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&amp;T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:12.147Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 253,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.\nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:17.391Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 234,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T19:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:22.579Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:27.900Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 138,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "World Population in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:33.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 326,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-23T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:39.468Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated &lt;1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:46.126Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.\nOnce the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.\nThe deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement \"cannot be approved as it stands.\nWill EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?\nResolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:57:51.400Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:02.512Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:07.762Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 170,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as &lt;2.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:12.988Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 125,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-02T05:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-09T06:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The EU corona recovery package or the [Next Generation EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Generation_EU) COVID-19 recovery plan, introduced for the first time large scale amounts of common EU bonds issued by European Commission (\"coronabonds\"). Previously, proposals to introduce such \"[eurobonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurobond_(eurozone))\" had been opposed several EU countries since 2011. The NGEU package allows the European Commission to borrow €750 bn euros on behalf of European Union. Total of €672.5 bn are to distributed as grants and loans via [Recovery and Resilience Facility](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-recovery-plan/) and rest by other programmes.\nIn addition to NGEU, the commission also introduced in October 2020 a €100 bn [SURE](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) [instrument](https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/financial-assistance-eu/funding-mechanisms-and-facilities/sure_en) (\"The European instrument for temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency\"). Prior to NGEU, the Commission has issued bonds to provide [assistance and loans](https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/eu-budget/eu-borrower_en) to some EU countries, but on much smaller scale.\nCurrently the NGEU programme is supposed to be temporary, with net borrowing activity ending in 2026, but some have called for strengthening the EU fiscal union by making the NGEU or similar mechanisms permanent.\nWill the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027?\nResolves positively if European Commission, or other body or institution representing the EU, will borrow more than €50 000 000 000 capital (net) from markets, in 2018 prices.\nOrganizations created by separate treaties between EU countries, such the [European Stability Mechanism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism), do not not count. The EIB and the EFSF are also excluded. \nThe question specifies 2018 prices to be comparable with NGEU RRF programme, which also specifies 2018 prices. [See Regulation establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility, Article 6](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/PE-75-2020-INIT/en/pdf)\nThe question specifies net borrowing activity, as the intention is to ask if EU will continue to issue new debt.\nThe intention of \"Commission or other institution\" criteria is to cover changes to the EU internal organization that result bonds continuing to be issued in behalf of the EU but not by the European Commission. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:18.572Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-04-30T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:23.787Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 194,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom), philosopher and Founding Director of the [Future of Humanity Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Humanity_Institute) at the University of Oxford, [argues](https://youtu.be/YBAxrR3RBSs) that only two events since the dawn of humanity have fundamentally changed the human condition: the Agricultural Revolution that took place approximately 10,000 years ago, and the Industrial Revolution which took place from roughly 1760-1840. Bostrom states the following:\n\"So what kind of thing would count as a fundamental change in the human condition? \n\"You could argue that if we look back over history, there has really only been two events that have fundamentally changed the human condition, the first being [the Agricultural Revolution some 10,000 or 12,000 years ago in Mesopotamia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Revolution), where we transitioned from being hunter-gatherers, small bands roaming around, to settling into cities, growing, domesticating crops and animals. With that you get social stratification, if there is a lot of grain, you could have a king or pharaoh who extracts the surplus, you can have standing armies, you can have war, you can have higher population densities, specialisation of labour, and from that point on, innovation grows much faster and population grows faster as well as a result.\n\"The second fundamental change in the human condition, [Industrial Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution), where for the first time, you have the rate of economic and technological growth outstripping population growth, and so only when this happens can you have an increase in average income. Before that, there was technological growth and economic growth, but the economy grew 10%, the population grew 10%, everybody's still in a [Malthusian condition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism).\"\nBostrom further argues that there are relatively few potential technologies that could have the same kind of impact, and that perhaps foremost among them is [machine intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence).\nThe kind of discontinuity in the human condition seen as a result of the agricultural and industrial revolutions is substantial; human civilisation became markedly more complex, acquired fundamentally new abilities, and the human experience became radically different after each of these events.\nThe question we ask here is: Before January 1 2100, will the human condition change fundamentally to at least roughly the same extent that it did after the agricultural and industrial revolutions?\n\"The human condition,\" for the purposes of this question, is the general level of social complexity, economic productivity, and ability to manipulate physical reality humanity has achieved at the civilisational level. \nThe discontinuity can be in either direction - though it seems improbable that Metaculus would continue to exist if humanity were to revert to a pre-industrial state.\nEvents that may occur this century, but which do not appear to represent a discontinuity of approximately the same degree as the agricultural and industrial revolutions, include (among other things) the establishment of bases or settlements on other bodies in the solar system, the achievement of modest to moderate life extension (e.g. an additional 10 to 30 years of life) or a significant but not radical increase in economic productivity.\nResolution\nIf at any time after the date of 2025-01-01 both the community and Metaculus predictions are &gt;= 98% or &lt;= 2%, with 80% probability, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively. With 20% probability, the question resolves according to a committee of 5 Metaculus admins, who will vote yes or no (not ambiguous), and will unmake their respective predictions so that they do not gain or lose points on the question.\nNote that the admins will be voting on whether the qualifying event has already happened, not whether they believe it will happen; for example, if the probability goes to 99% because a super-powerful AI seems immininent within 10 years, but it has not actually happened yet, the committee should unanimously vote no.\nIf the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:29.494Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 196,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:35.725Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 245,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that white will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:41.530Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 173,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:47.230Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 140,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-06-15T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:52.620Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:58:58.054Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 393,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:03.363Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 181,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-14T01:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:08.876Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:14.152Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:24:03Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T22:21:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&amp;P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:19.717Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:24.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-11-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Changing restrictions in the EU to achieve [climate neutrality](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en) and prevent the increase of global warming and carbon emissions by 2050 have increased the speed of EV adoption throughout Europe. \nAs reported through [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/about-us/history.html), a german non-profit dedicated to transferring already existing knowledge from fundamental research in the fields of renewable energy and rotational energy conversion to market-ready, application-based technology, Germany has increased its new EV registrations by approximately [500% between 2015 and 2019](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590).\nThe United States in contrast has barely tripled their registrations in the same time period. However, the US still holds a lead of three times the amount of registrations than Germany as of 2019.\nThe United States, in contrast, has no federal regulations for carbon emissions or goals for national carbon neutrality within a certain time period. [Fewer than half of its states have any sort of emission target](https://www.c2es.org/document/greenhouse-gas-emissions-targets/), with only four states with both statutory and executive targets. \nVolkswagen Group, a German automotive company, is predicted to overtake Tesla in EV market share by [2023 or earlier](https://evcentral.com.au/volkswagen-vows-to-overtake-tesla-on-tech-and-production-by-2023/#:~:text=Volkswagen%20vows%20to%20overtake%20Tesla%20on%20tech%20and%20production%20by%202023&amp;text=Volkswagen%20says%20it%20will%20have,into%20the%20electric%2Dvehicle%20space.). If this happens, it might greatly increase the number of registrations within the company’s home nation, past that of the United States. \nA question regarding Volkswagen sales in 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5529/volkswagen-ev-sales-2020/).\nWill Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the ZSW through their [data](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) on German and US new EV registrations. If data is no longer provided through this company, then new estimates will be obtained from a similar, reliable data source with numbers of EV registrations for both Germany and the US. If this is not possible, the question will resolve ambiguously. This question will resolve positively if the number of new EV registrations in Germany is greater than the number of registrations in the US.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:30.275Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:29:34Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-01T20:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-06-01T19:28:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. \nOne of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback. \nACE explicitly includes \"the organization has a healthy attitude toward representation/diversity, equity, and inclusion (R/DEI)\" as part of \"Criterion 5: Leadership and Culture\", one of their seven [evaluation criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/) during their evaluation process. This approach has previously drawn both praise and criticism, for example with respect to their grant to [Encompass](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ePDKZMpoGdx7J3PBh/announcing-our-summer-2020-ace-movement-grants#Encompass___35_000_). \nWill ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?\nWhether an event is a \"scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination\" will be resolved per the [\"I know it when I see it\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) standard from [Jacobellis v. Ohio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacobellis_v._Ohio), possibly after consulting with ACE. In the case of disagreement among metaculus users, ACE's ruling will decide resolution.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:36.686Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 114,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a performer win a 4th Oscar for Acting?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6982/date-next-performer-wins-4th-oscar/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Academy of Motion Picture Arts &amp; Sciences](http://oscars.org) annually gives awards (known as The Oscars) for the cinematic arts. Among these awards are the categories for Acting or Best Performances.\nKatharine Hepburn holds the record of winning the most (4) competitive Oscars for performances. Ingrid Bergman, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, and Daniel Day-Lewis have won 3 each. [Many performers have 2 such awards](http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/Help/Statistics?file=indexStats.html), including Mahershala Ali, who won two this century.\nWhen will another performer win a 4th competitive Oscar for acting or performance?\nThe question will resolve as the date on which, according to AMPAS, a performer will have won their fourth competitive performance award. The 4 awards may have been won at any time before or during the life of this question.\nTo resolve the question, any official AMPAS press release, announcement, or [listing](http://awardsdatabase.oscars.org/Help/Statistics?file=indexStats.html) will suffice. In the event of unclarity, a credible statement by an AMPAS executive or by a film historian may be consulted in the discretion of the admins.\nA \"performer\" \"wins\" an award if AMPAS says so. If holographic representations or other non-humans become eligible under AMPAS rules, they'll be eligible here. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:42.230Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-10T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-05-04T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2037-05-24T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n<li>If the community prediction at the time of closing is &gt; 80%, then the questions resolves positive.</li> <li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is &lt; 20%, then the questions resolves negative.</li> <li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. </li> \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:48.369Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 213,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:54.156Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T13:59:59.378Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:04.666Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 131,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the time of writing this question, there are 6 people in low Earth orbit, no people on suborbital space flights, no people in high orbit, or on the Moon or Mars or any asteroid or en route to those places. \nUp-to-date information on the space population may be [found here.](https://www.howmanypeopleareinspacerightnow.com/)\nFor the last 17 years, since the International Space Station (ISS) began long term operations, the population of humans in space has been at least two – the minimal crew of the ISS. \nThe highest number of people in space at any one time has been 13, reached in 1995 and 2009. \nBut the ISS is reaching the end of its life. Despite discussions of many other possible crewed space missions, even up to colonization of the Moon or Mars, no particular venture seems certain.\nThis uncertainty about future space missions means the distribution of possible populations is not at all Gaussian. There are many scenarios where crewed spaceflight might be abandoned – it is expensive, and so far has not proven commercially valuable. On the other hand a successful colonization effort could result in many thousands of people off world. \nBecause of the difficult distribution, we will ask a simpler question. Will the population be higher than the current maximum?\nWill the population of humans off of planet Earth at midnight UTC time of December 31, 2050, be higher than 13? \nIf clarification is needed of what counts as \"human\", see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100). \"Off of planet Earth\" will mean farther than 100km from the surface of Earth, using the altitude conventionally used for space records.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:10.230Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 518,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.\nAccording to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.\nThis could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.\nThese studies consider what is currently the worst-case nuclear exchange, namely, that between the US and Russia. However, It is possible that a future nuclear arms race someday leads to larger stockpiles or more dangerous nuclear weapons than existed at the height of the Cold War. In this case, chances of a nuclear extinction might be higher than they currently are.\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/). Now it is asked,\nGiven that nuclear catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global nuclear catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. It resolves positively if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves negative if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:22.905Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Protons are durable little subatomic particles. Our collective best guess that they should take at least years to decay... if they do so at all. \nWhy do scientists want to figure this out? Symmetry Magazine explains the situation: \nMuch [the theoritical work on Grand Unified Theories of the universe] rests on the existence of proton decay, and yet we’ve never seen a proton die. The reason may simply be that protons rarely decay, a hypothesis borne out by both experiment and theory... Because of quantum physics, the time any given proton decays is random, so a tiny fraction will decay long before that -year lifetime. So, “what you need to do is to get a whole bunch of protons together,” says [University of California's Jonathan Feng]. Increasing the number of protons increases the chance that one of them will decay while you’re watching.\nSeveral experiments around the world have attempted (and will be attempting) to quantify the whys and wherefores of proton decay. \nTwo of the most important include:\n[Super-Kamiokande](http://www-sk.icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/sk/sk/pdecay-e.html) in Japan:\nIf we can collect many protons and some of them decay, we can estimate proton lifetime unless waiting for so long time. Super-Kamiokande uses 50,000 tons of pure water and it contains protons. We are measuring proton lifetime with huge number of protons... however, we have not observed any evidence of proton decay yet.\n[Hyper-Kamiokande](http://www.hyper-k.org/en/physics/phys-protondecay.html): \nHyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can overtake the current reach by SK within two years... Hyper-Kamiokande has sensitivity up to more than one order longer than the current lower lifetime of proton.\nWhat do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040? \nQuestion resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:28.442Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 163,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-02-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.\nGiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.\nThis question asks: \nWhen will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?\nResolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of \"top charities\", this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:33.818Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:40.069Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 199,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:45.554Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 166,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cv&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:51.144Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:00:56.728Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 85,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Policy Exchange recently released a paper on “Street Votes” where each street can decide their own planning laws and hence gain the benefits (or not) of higher value housing on their street.\nThe paper is [here](https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf).\nWill the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024\nAn official government announcement is sufficient e.g. statement in parliament or press release on [gov.uk](http://gov.uk)\nA pilot scheme will count as positive resolution.\nThe zoning laws to be voted on must include at least the following options:\n--- \nNumber of floors\n--- \nPlot use\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:04.296Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-25T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.\nWhile beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. \nWith an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.\nWhat percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:12.465Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:54:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:54:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:18.720Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:24.402Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In October 2017, Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence International (METI) transmitted a [signal into space](https://www.cnet.com/news/seti-space-aliens-extra-terrestrial-intelligence-luytens-star-gj-273/) designed to let other civilizations know we're here.\nThe message, transmitted to a [red dwarf star](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luyten%27s_Star) 12 light-years from Earth and contains information on human understanding of science, math and time. \nIn March 2017, a planet three times the mass of Earth within the habitable zone was discovered orbiting the star. If there's anyone on that planet who receives the message, their reply could arrive as early as 2042.\nWill a response to the METI signal arrive by 2045?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a signal of unambiguously intelligent and extraterrestrial origin originating from Luyten's Star is detected on or near Earth on or before December 31, 2045.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:29.850Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 275,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-12-31T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:35.284Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There have been great improvements in medical technology in the last few centuries, which has led to very significant increases in [life expectancy]( https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy). Yet, while medical technology has stopped the vast majority of us dying young, it has not been very effective at increasing the maximum age that humans can live to. [Ramesses II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramesses_II) lived to the age of 90, even though the life expectancy in ancient Egypt might have been below 30. Similarly, the English aristocracy between 1500-1550 already had a life expectancy of 71, meaning that quite a few of them will have lived into their 80s. The oldest person the world, as of the writing of this question, is aged 117. It is unclear whether anybody in the ancient world lived to a similar age (there were many claims of extreme age and very poor record keeping), but it certainly does not seem completely impossible.\nRecently, though, there have been attempts to actually extend he upper limit of human lifespan. The [Methuselah Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methuselah_Foundation) has managed to keep mice alive for the equivalent of 180 human years. Yet, it is unclear whether this achievement will be transferrable to humans.\nIt is asked:Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? \nThis questions resolves positive if:\nEITHER\n<li>There have been at least 10 people who have lived to the age of 130 by 2100.</li> \nOR\n<li>There have been at least 100 people who have lived to the age of 120 by 2100.</li> \nOR\n<li>Ray Kurzweil lives to the age of 120.</li> \nThe resolution triggering people have to have their age verified by standards at least as strict as the standards used at the time of the writing of this question. People resuscitated after being cryonically frozen do not count.\nHere is some context on verified claims up to the writing of this question:\n<li>46 people have reached the age of 115.</li> <li>19 people have reached the age of 116.</li> <li>9 people have reached the age of 117.</li> <li>2 people have lived beyond the age of 117.</li> <li>Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122.</li> \nAlso note that the people who could trigger positive resolution here are all already alive and at least middle aged as of the writing of this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:41.003Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 353,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nAlphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). \nIn case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).\nPrices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:46.300Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 227,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-06-11T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:51.578Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:01:57.074Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by &gt;25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:02.520Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It is estimated that Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina (the so-called lithium triangle) make up approximately [54% of the world’s lithium reserves](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). There are two types of lithium, the hardrock (spodumene), and the lithium brines in desert regions which when evaporated gradually leave lithium behind. Lithium is a key part of the current battery technology needed to produce electric vehicles, and as EV demand grows, so does the need for minable lithium. The expected demand for lithium is expected to rise to [159.6 kilotonnes by 2030](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) for light vehicles. In 2019, our current lithium supply was only 77 kilotonnes.\nChile and Argentina have already seen large increases in demand for lithium, with increased production to match it. Bolivia, which is still in its early days with lithium mining, has [yet to enter the world market as a large-scale producer](https://resourceworld.com/lithium-triangle/). In 2019, Chile provided [18,000 tonnes of lithium](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) to market and Argentina behind that with 6,400. \nThe U.S geographical survey estimates that Bolivia has over [9 million tonnes](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) of identifiable lithium resources in its salt flats. So far, Bolivia has been producing [400 tonnes of lithium](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-lithium-exclusive/exclusive-bolivias-new-lithium-tsar-says-country-should-go-it-alone-idUSKBN1ZE2DW) in a private test site, which now should be able to scale quickly due to the change in political leadership. \nAustralia, which currently holds the record in annual lithium production at [42,000 tonnes in 2019](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/), has a total estimated lithium reserve of [2,800,000 tonnes](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/), almost ⅓ of the reserves in Chile, and less than twice as much as Argentina. As Bolivia enters the market, the dynamics of production and price could change dramatically.\nThe number of exports and interest in the lithium triangle could dramatically increase as the prices of lithium fall. High labor costs and protected union jobs, with an average yearly salary of [62,636 US Dollars](https://gradaustralia.com.au/on-the-job/salaries-and-benefits-for-graduates-in-the-mining-sector) in Australia, make production an expensive affair. In 2019, lithium demand [fell 19%](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf), bringing prices down with it. \n\"Several established lithium operations postponed capacity expansion plans. Junior mining operations in Australia [ceased production](https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-lithium.pdf) altogether.\"\nLow prices in lithium aren't necessarily daunting to South American producers, for whom labor costs are extremely low at approximately [6,148 US dollars a year in Argentina](http://www.salaryexplorer.com/salary-survey.php?loc=10&amp;loctype=1&amp;job=39&amp;jobtype=1) in mining positions, and an average [12,726 US dollars a year in Chile](https://www.erieri.com/salary/job/miner/chile/santiago#:~:text=The%20average%20pay%20for%20a,CLP%207%2C174%2C468%20and%20CLP%2011%2C750%2C775.). With lower transport costs to the United States as well, this might become a more attractive option than Australia in the future, both for consumers and producers.\nLUT-Augsburg researchers attempting to model the amount of lithium left, to understand demand and production dynamics, found with increasing uncertainty that there could be anywhere from [30-95 million tonnes of lithium reserves left](https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/15/how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last/).\n\"The researchers modeled four lithium supply scenarios based on the estimates. In their worst-case forecast, no additional lithium resources will be discovered. That would leave humanity 26 Mt of lithium. If the policies ( recycling, V2G, second-life) and only 3 billion electric vehicles on the road were matched with just 26 Mt of lithium, but recycling efforts would only grow slowly, battery manufacturers will close shops even before 2040.\"\nIn this scenario, with only 2.8 million tonnes of lithium reserves, Australian production would drop off more quickly than that of the lithium triangle. \nWill the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?\nThis question will resolve positively if the amount of lithium mine production between Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia is greater than the mine production from Australia before the end of 2030. Data will be provided through Statista, which has current data on both the countries with the [greatest lithium reserves](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/) as of 2019, as well as data on [lithium production by country](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268789/countries-with-the-largest-production-output-of-lithium/) ranging from 2014-2019. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if data is no longer available through Statista and no other credible source can be found, or if lithium demand by the transportation industry drops below 1 kilotonne. Demand in 2019 was at approximately [17 kt](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/annual-lithium-demand-for-electric-vehicle-batteries-2019-2030-2) in comparison.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:07.982Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:49:06Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T22:45:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:45:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:13.231Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:19.770Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 72,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:25.180Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:30.656Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 226,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade.[[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001) To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable.[[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf) \nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy.[[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. \nWith the exception of the brief spike during dotcom bubble around the year 2000, the proportion of valuations contributed by tech companies in the [S&amp;P500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index) has been trending up only very slowly (~0.3 percentage points per year since 2003, see [data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yaOCwE97SXzgnKJzmw74tK_njaO-NP3Vg5YuvHZeFBM/edit?usp=sharing)). \nHence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen substantial evidence of investors suspecting a big trend-deviating disruption in the extent of productivity enhancing automation. But will this change in the next 5 years?\nWill the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&amp;P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?\nThis resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&amp;P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:36.111Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 305,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nOrange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Orlando boasts a fleet of [5,375 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center.\nThe Floridian government announced an [$8.6 million investment](https://www.flgov.com/2020/07/10/governor-ron-desantis-announces-next-steps-to-strengthen-floridas-electric-vehicle-infrastructure/) to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their [Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan](https://www.fdacs.gov/Energy/Florida-Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap). They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida.\nHow many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:41.476Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 120,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-04T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-02T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "How do you quantify the scientific productivity of a nation? One way is to detail the number of science Nobel prizes that have been awarded to that country. According to a May 2018 Royal Society Open Science article, '[An empirical study of the per capita yield of science Nobel prizes: is the US era coming to an end?](http://rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/5/5/180167)' we now have enough data on the distribution of Nobel prizes by country to provide a reliable analysis of the long term trends. Claudius Gros, of the Institute for Theoretical Physics in Goethe University Frankfurt, examined Nobel prizes awarded for chemistry, physics, physiology or medicine indexed by their country of origin. \nThe cumulative number of physics, chemistry and medicine Nobel prizes per country. Prizes are attributed to the respective country according to the nationality of the recipients at the time of the announcement, with prizes obtained by more than one recipient accordingly divided.\nWhile the US has an impressive number of science Nobel Prizes, Gros notes that “the US population increased from 76 to 327 million during 1901–2017”. When you consider the number of Nobelists per population size, then the UK has the more impressive record (followed by Germany, then the US and France). ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/717446eb-6cc3-42ac-9441-e29ed52321e0/rsos180167f02.jpg))\nGros then uses this model to predict the future productivity rate of these countries. ([figure](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/cms/attachment/eacb4040-57ac-4ef6-857f-b95fbc846afc/rsos180167f03.jpg))\nThis leads Gros to make the claim, “Our model predicts that the US per capita productivity rate will have fallen below that of Germany by 2025 and below that of France by 2028”. Will this claim turn out to be true? For our purposes, we will focus on the first half of this claim, on whether the US per capita science Nobel Prize productivity rate will fall below that of Germany by 2025 as the model predicts. \nQuestion resolves as positive if the per-capita number of science Nobel Prizes awarded to Germans between 2020 and 2025, inclusive, exceeds that of the US.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:47.011Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-18T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-11-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:52.382Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:02:57.912Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 53,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2032-06-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:04.171Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 230,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-04T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:09.679Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:15.084Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:20.336Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 246,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:25.799Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:31.105Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 21,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:36.331Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 174,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-15T22:52:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-11-25T22:53:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&amp;P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&amp;P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:41.547Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:48.145Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[James Bedford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Bedford) was the first person to be cryopreserved, and has been in preservation since 1967. He is currently preserved at [Alcor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcor_Life_Extension_Foundation).\nHis preservation was rather primitive and late:\nBedford's body was frozen a few hours after his death due to natural causes related to his cancer. […] Compared to those employed by modern cryonics organizations, the use of cryoprotectants in Bedford's case was primitive. He was injected with a solution 15% dimethyl sulfoxide and 85% ringers solution, a compound once thought to be useful for long-term cryogenics […].\nA longer evaluation of his state of preservation in 1991 can be found [here](https://www.alcor.org/Library/html/BedfordCondition.html).\nBecause he presents a minimum standard for cryopreservations, and because of his symbolic importance, this question asks: Will James Bedford be reuscitated before 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, the revival of James Bedford must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated questions:\n---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/) \n---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:03:54.656Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Pre-covid, several [forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/reports/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming/) expected peak oil consumption to be in the 2020s. Now, in light of plummeting 2020 consumption, [several energy forecasters](https://carbontracker.org/was-2019-the-peak-of-the-fossil-fuel-era/) have concluded that perhaps the peak was 2019. \nAccording to the EIA, [2019 usage was 100.87 mb/day](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php) (under total world consumption of petroleum and other liquids).\nWill oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?\nThis question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.\nIt will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:00.282Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 184,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:11.531Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 258,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:18.937Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:24.989Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-07-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Republic of Belarus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus) is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe bordered by Russia to the northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Until the 20th century, different states at various times controlled the lands of modern-day Belarus, including the Principality of Polotsk (11th to 14th centuries), the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. \nIn the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.\nThe parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. [Alexander Lukashenko](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lukashenko) has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled \"Europe's last dictatorship\" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.\nElections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as \"not free\" by Freedom House, and as \"repressed\" in the Index of Economic Freedom.\nIn recent years, particularly since [Russia made military incursions into Ukraine in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [annexed Crimea,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation) a number ([1, ](https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/07/how-russia-could-test-nato-warns-former-us-army-europe-commander/149530/)[2, ](https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/18/is-russia-practicing-a-dry-run-for-an-invasion-of-belarus/)[3, ](https://jamestown.org/program/belarus-receives-alarming-signals-from-both-east-and-west/)[4, ](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-ready-putins-invasion-belarus-russian-forces-are-gathering-664225)[5](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/19/fears-grow-russian-military-drills-in-belarus-are-moscows-next-crimea.html)) of observers have raised the possibility that Russia may in the near future invade or annex Belarus.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?\nThis question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:30.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 380,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:36.018Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which\naims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.\nAs of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.\nIf ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if:\n---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). \n---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. \n---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:45.510Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:50.851Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:04:56.855Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Pre-implantation genetic diagnosis](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis) (PGD) is a technique that allows for the genetic profiling of embryos prior to their implantation as part of an [in vitro fertilization](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/In_vitro_fertilisation) (IVF) procedure. This is typically done to minimize the risk of miscarriage and of genetic or chromosomal diseases.\nSince [the first successful](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199209243271301) use of PGD in 1989, many people have been subject to this procedure for non-genomic traits (like aneuploidies) or traits with well-established causal paths (like monogenic diseases). For example, in 2008 it was estimated that [4%-6% of IVFs](http://(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2007.05.048)) in the US included a PGD step. In 2020, [the first tests for highly polygenic traits on human embryos](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2019.00845/full) were carried out in a clinical setting.\n[Orchid Health](https://www.orchidhealth.com/) is the first company offering PGD for highly polygenic diseases (like type 2 diabetes and schizophrenia) commercially to any parents who want it as part of a standard IVF procedure. This has raised [technical](https://twitter.com/GENES_PK/status/1380553618777063427) and [ethical](https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/04/21/1023268/genetic-disease-chances-orchid-embryo-testing-ivf/) concerns.\nWhen will the first baby screened for polygenic traits by Orchid Health be born?\nThis question shall resolve according to a press release from Orchid Health or credible media reports.\nThe baby must have been screened for at least one trait for which the risk is estimated using a [polygenic risk score](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Polygenic_score).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:02.640Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-07T06:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:08.192Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:13.478Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:19.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves positive if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n[edit note] SCH 2021-05-17: replaced This question resolves if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. with This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:25.062Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 251,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves positive if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%. This question resolves the earliest as of 1st of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n[edit note] SCH 2021-05-17: replaced This question resolves if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. with This question resolves positive if the FiveThirtyEight average of \"all polls\" for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds 50%.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:31.635Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 251,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. \n1--Venus. \n2--Mars. \n3--Europa. \n4--Ganymede. \n5--Another moon of Jupiter. \n6--Enceladus. \n7--Titan. \n8--Another moon of Saturn. \n9--A dwarf planet. \n10-An asteroid. \n11-Another place in the Solar System. \nResolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:37.685Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-04-01T02:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored. \nThis finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding \"dogma\" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage. \nIn some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being \"written to the cortex\" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.\nBut a [March 2018 Nature paper](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/study-finds-no-neurogenesis-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-29987) by Sorrells and Paredes at UCSF recently found sharply decining NG after the age of 1 year in human brains, and no NG in humans after the age of 13 yrs.\nThe Sorrells paper used a more stringent set of surface markers to search for new neurons than previous papers, and it argues previous studies weren't sufficiently rigorous in their neural classification approaches. It has a lot of neuroscientists confused again, as it comes from a respected group using some very careful work, and it concludes that adult humans do not do functionally important neurogenesis over their lifetimes. \nThen in April 2018 a careful stereology-based [study by Boldrini](https://www.the-scientist.com/daily-news/abundant-neurogenesis-found-in-adult-humans-hippocampi-30050) at Columbia, also using postmortem hippocampi, contradicted the Nature paper. Boldrini's paper again argues the 20 year old view that adult human hippocampi continually does NG. They found about 1,000 neural progenitor cells in each of the front, middle, and back regions of the DG at any time, throughout the human lifespan. This is plenty enough, in some models, to be functionally important to human thinking and memory.\nSo which is it? \nEither: \n1-- \nAdult human NG exists and is functionally important to us throughout our lifespan (birth to death), or \n2-- \nNG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it isn't functionally important.\nAssuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.\nResolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define \"definitive\" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:43.340Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 159,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:49.033Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 336,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).\nThis question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. \nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\nThe question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:54.354Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 227,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In a [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/), we asked \"How long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python?\" While interesting and understandable, this criterion suffers from possible ambiguity and difficulty in exact quantification.\nAs a supplement, there is an interesting framework, metric, and dataset provided by [DeepMind's \"card2code\" dataset](https://github.com/deepmind/card2code), which consists of Magic the Gathering and Hearthstone cards, in addition to Java and Python implementations of card logic, respectively. The task is to translate the rules/instructions on the card into an accurate code implementing them.\nThe state-of-the-art at question launch is 16.7% accuracy, achieved by the Syntactic Neural Modal (SNM) presented in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01696v1); see also [EFF AI benchmarks](https://www.eff.org/ai/metrics).\nEffective semantic parsing is a requisite skills of a general AI system, and code generation is potentially a very powerful capability, so we ask the following question that will benchmark how well a system can write general-purpose code:\nWill a code generation system achieve 75% accuracy on the Hearthstone card set by 2030?\nPositive resolution occurs if a paper is published or posted describing a code generation system that has credibly achieved 75% on Hearthstone card set by 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:05:59.668Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 166,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-23T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1556/will-there-be-extraordinary-or-premature-federal-elections-held-in-germany-before-their-next-election-cycle/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, [Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46016377).\nThe latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.\nHer current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:\n---[Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer](https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-ally-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-urges-new-era-in-german-politics/a-46196445), the unofficial favourite, \n---[Friedrich Merz](https://www.dw.com/en/friedrich-merz-makes-pitch-to-lead-cdu-after-angela-merkel/a-46108295), who had left politics a decade ago, and \n---[Jens Spahn](https://www.jens-spahn.de/neustart_fuer_die_cdu), the current Minister of Health. \nThere are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.\nThus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?\nResolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:05.216Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-12T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-03-31T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-25T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:10.614Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:16.169Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 49,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.\nThis question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:21.571Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2074-10-10T09:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-10-10T09:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:26.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:32.565Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 161,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:38.135Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 126,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:44.872Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:50.214Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2121-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:06:56.102Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 125,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Despite [Kepler’s recent](http://www.nasa.gov/kepler) end of mission [the search](http://sci.esa.int/gaia/) [for exoplanets](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/cubesat/missions/asteria.php) [continues](https://tess.gsfc.nasa.gov). While their orbits and properties vary, ranging from double our Moon’s mass to thirty times Jupiter’s, their atmospheres’ compositions are harder to detect.\nAs of this writing this means we have mostly data from exoplanets we detected by transition and occlusion methods, but also other kind of exoplanets. However we only found what is in their air, not how much or its ratio in the atmosphere. What we did detect of their atmospheres was often hydrogen, sodium, water vapour, carbon monoxide and dioxide, methane, and even oxygen, depending on the respective exoplanet.\nSadly, the presence of O2 isn’t the smoking gun for extraterrestrial life some media like to report it for. There are atmospheric and geological processes that produce detectable—[or even massive](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/ast.2014.1231)—amounts of oxygen, keeping the mere presence of O2 from being a robust biomarker. On the flip side, too much oxygen is also possible, and may prevent or hamper the development of life. \nSo far we lack a method that would determine the composition percentages of exoplanet atmospheres, but that doesn’t mean someone clever won’t come up with a way. And once we do, finding an atmosphere with a sizeable fraction of O2 might very well be a good indicator for extraterrestrial life.\nWill we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with &gt;5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?\nResolves positive for any exoplanet with &gt;5% O2 found before 2030, negative if none are found.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.41000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:01.331Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 181,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-09-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:06.690Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:12.246Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 72,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:18.253Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 92,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:28.690Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.\nAs of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&amp;pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%\nWhen will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?\nThis resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&amp;pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.\nTo pinpoint a particular date, we will linearly interpolate between the first day of the year when the threshold was breached, and the first day of the prior year (see fine-print).\nClarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&amp;pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).\nIn particular, suppose the average survival rate for first exceeds 75% in year , at which point the survival rate was . Then the resolution date will be given by:\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:34.835Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 154,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-18T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-06-23T21:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:42.797Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 253,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). \nThe question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"currently undiscovered\" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.\nFor this question, a \"social media\" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:48.628Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7096/fortifying-feed-for-hens-charity-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Charity Entrepreneurship recently [called for co-founders to create a charity fortifying feed hens](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/22ioZWmandAzKSNkC/why-we-want-to-start-a-charity-fortifying-feed-for-hens). Will they succeed in creating a charity on this topic in their 2021 incubation program?\nPast charities incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship can be found [here](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html).\nWill Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?\nResolution will be according to reliable reports, e.g., Charity Entrepreneurship's own website or EA Global's customary introduction of new charities\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:54.029Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 26,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.\nOne proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:\nAnd you can also play on hard mode: \"During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.\"\nLesswrong has hosted an event along these lines [in 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vvzfFcbmKgEsDBRHh/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2019) and [in 2020](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020). In 2019, 125 users were given \"launch codes\" that, if input into a red button on the front page, would take down the site for the day. In 2020, the same was done with 270 users. The site [was not took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krgNxiooRfnP9L4ZD/follow-up-to-petrov-day-2019) in 2019, and [was took down](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XfHXQPPKNY8BXkn72/honoring-petrov-day-on-lesswrong-in-2020?commentId=CviMXu8BciCqcSMKJ#Relating_to_the_End_of_Humanity) in 2020.\nIf Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?\nIf the site [lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/) hosts a 2021 Petrov day event, and a group of Lesswrong users are given the choice to take a unilateral action that ends the 2021 Petrov day event (such as entering launch codes that take down the Lesswrong site, as in 2019 and 2020), then this will resolve positively if one of them takes that action and negatively if none of them do. Otherwise, this resolves ambigiously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:07:59.385Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 157,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-26T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:04.607Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 246,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&amp;t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:09.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to &lt; 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:20.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&amp;_r=1&amp;mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&amp;gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&amp;gwt=pay&amp;assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:26.254Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 466,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.\nThe Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).\nTherefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?\nThis question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:32.169Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-10-11T21:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:37.784Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:42.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:48.350Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 357,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T22:20:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-29T22:20:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece\nThe area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.\nThe 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.\nThe Crete earthquake was followed by a tsunami which devastated the southern and eastern coasts of the Mediterranean, particularly Libya, Alexandria and the Nile Delta, killing thousands and hurling ships 3 km (1.9 mi) inland.\nWill there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?\nThis question will resolve if by Dec. 31 2021 an earthquake measuring 7.0 or larger occurring either underneath or within 80 Kilometres from sea shores of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, being defined as a line running from Southern Sicily thru Malta to Misrata Libya. This will include the whole Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Ionian Sea, and Leviathan Sea.\nEarthquake must be verified by either: European-Mediterranean Seismological Center Earthquake Track\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:53.524Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 56,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). \nSurface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nWhat will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:08:58.705Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:04.978Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 62,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-24T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:10.313Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will resolve retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:15.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-03-24T02:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will North Korea become a democracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&amp;LangID=E), \"the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.\" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. \nNorth Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.\nJanuary 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves &gt; in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:26.617Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by *The Economist* in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6101/number-of-full-democracies-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process &amp; pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:31.888Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T15:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recently, planetary astronomers and astrobiologists have been discussing the possibility of introducing a gradated \"life detection scale\", running from 0 to 10, with the goal of telegraphing to the public how much confidence scientists have in any particular intimation that exoplanetary life (or a biosignature) has been detected on a given planet. The scale would be similar in spirit to the [Torino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale) for asteroid threats or the [San Marino Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Marino_Scale) for determining risks associated with deliberate transmissions to possible extraterrestrial intelligent life.\nThe purpose of this question (and succeeding questions to form a question series) is to explore the feasibility of using Metaculus to determining a probability consensus that can be mapped onto a numerical score.\nSo on to the specific question itself. \nWater vapor has recently [been detected](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-019-0878-9) (with an independent detection described [here](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.04642)) in the atmosphere of the extrasolar planet [K2-18b](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K2-18b), which has roughly three times Earth’s radius, nine times Earth’s mass, and receives a similar radiative flux from its parent star as Earth receives from the Sun. This has led to speculation about whether K2-18b might host life, particularly in the press, e.g. [here](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49648746) and [here](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/first-water-found-in-habitable-exoplanets-atmosphere-hubble-kepler-k2-18b/). Given the level of popular interest, and given the rather startling range of opinions that were evident after the announcement, it seems useful for both domain experts and experts in prediction (here's looking at you, Metaculus users!) to have a forum for providing feedback on this issue. \nWe thus ask:\nWill a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?\nResolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:37.116Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-11-30T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&amp;context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:42.534Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:47.766Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 302,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:53.279Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 111,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will One Piece end?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:09:58.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:03.703Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&amp;emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&amp;instance_id=26406&amp;nl=morning-briefing&amp;regi_id=124411317&amp;section=topNews&amp;segment_id=50252&amp;te=1&amp;user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:09.056Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:14.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 257,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1928, biologist Alexander Fleming discovered - by accident - that where the Penicillium mould had grown on a petri dish the bacteria nearby had been killed. This was due to a chemical the mould secreted, which he named \"penicillin\" - the antibiotic we know and love today.\nSince the discovery of penicillin, antibiotics have saved hundreds of millions of lives and become an essential part of modern medicine.\nBut they're getting less effective. Repeated use has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nAt any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:20.952Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 104,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:26.145Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 151,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/669/will-kic-9832227-go-supernova--observable-to-the-naked-eye-on-earth--by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Astronomer Larry Molner, presenting at the American Astronomical Society, boldly offered that the binary star system known as KIC 9832227 is a ticking time bomb that may have [already exploded](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/01/see-star-explode-2022-nova-cygnus-skywatching-space-science/).\nThe \"Boom Star\" as Molner [calls it](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4091604/Mark-calendars-dazzling-supernova-appear-sky-2022-predict-astronomers.html):\nwill be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognisable Northern Cross star pattern.\nMolner's hunch is based on observations of a similar system, V1309 Scorpii, that supernovaed in 2008.\nWill this bold prediction come to pass? \nResult is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an \"red nova\" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)\n(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:31.760Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 171,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:37.371Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 241,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:48.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T01:33:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:34:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the view that future AI systems will be conscious?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"future AI systems\" on the question \"for which groups are some members conscious?\" (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:53.464Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "To facilitate discussion, in what follows the names 'Jeanne Calment' and 'Yvonne Calment' refer to the women born in 1875 and 1898, respectively, regardless of when these women died; and the name 'Mme Calment' refers to the woman who died in 1997, regardless of when she was born.\nJeanne Calment (born 21 February 1875) was, until recently, widely considered to have died on 4 August 1997 and to be, as such, the oldest verified person in history, reaching the remarkable age of 122 years and 164 days. In 2018, Russian mathematician Nikolay Zak—prompted by Valery Novoselov, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatrics at RUDN University in Moscow—uploaded a paper to ResearchGate, subsequently [published](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2018.2167) in the journal Rejuvenation Research, challenging this view. Zak argued that the person who died in 1997 was Jeanne Calment's daughter, Yvonne Calment (born 29 January 1898), who upon Jeanne's death in 1934 assumed her official identity for tax evasion purposes.\nVersions of this “identity switch hypothesis” had been advanced in the past (including by [fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/#comment-2084)), but it was only with the publication of Zak’s paper and its popularization and further development by life-extension activist Yuri Deigin in [a series of blog posts](http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000148.s001) that the thesis attracted widespread attention and discussion. The main facts adduced in support of this hypothesis are, to quote from Gwern's useful [summary](https://www.gwern.net/Questions#jeanne-calment), \"the suspiciousness of the Calment family archives being destroyed by them, some anomalies in Calment’s passport, oddities in family arrangements, apparent inconsistency of Calment’s recollections &amp; timing of events &amp; photos, facial landmarks like ear features not seeming to match up between young/old photos, and an obscure 2007 accusation in a French book that a French bureaucrat and/or the insurance company had uncovered the fraud but the French state quietly suppressed the findings because of Calment’s national fame.\"\nThe response of the professional community of demographers has been generally skeptical. Jean-Marie Robine, a respected scholar who co-validated Calment's longevity record, was [particularly critical](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/12/how-madame-calment-worlds-oldest-person-became-fuel-russian-conspiracy-theory/): \"You can talk with any scholar, who would say, we would not accept this even from a student. It’s not scientific, there’s no methodology, no hypothesis, no nothing.\" His colleague and co-author Michel Allard also criticized the study, though he [noted](https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1OX14T) that \"even if far-fetched, the Russians’ conclusions should be given consideration.\" After a \"rather tense\" meeting of the National Institute for Demographic Studies in early 2019, longevity experts from France, Swiss and Belgium concluded that an exhumation may be needed to settle the controversy.\nMore recently, it has been discovered that blood samples taken from Mme Calment have been preserved by the [Fondation Jean Dausset-CEPH](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fondation_Jean_Dausset-CEPH) in Paris. Furthermore, [researcher Phil Gibbs](https://the110club.com/did-jeanne-calment-really-reach-122-t3663-s315.html#p40063394) and [gerontologist Aubrey De Grey](https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/DNA-blood-test-could-reveal-if-Jeanne-Calment-was-really-122) independently noted that, because of inbreeding, Yvonne Calment had only 12 great-great-grandparents, whereas Jeanne Calment had the usual 16. Thus, the true identity of Mme Calment could be straightforwardly established by conducting a single DNA test on a blood sample already in possession of a laboratory.\nIn light of this, we now ask: Conditional on relevant DNA tests being carried out, will it be shown that Mme Calment was Jeanne Calment?\n\nResolution\n----------\n\nThe question will resolve before the official resolution date (January 1, 2030) if and when the results of a DNA test of Mme Calment, following either an exhumation of her body or an analysis of a preserved blood sample, are officially announced. The resolution will then be determined as follows:\n1-- \nIf the DNA of the exhumed body or the blood sample is shown to be that of someone with 12 great-great-grandparents, the question resolves negative; if it is shown the be that of someone with 16 great-great-grandparents, it resolves positive; otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n2-- \nIf the official body of Yvonne Calment is also exhumed and tested, the question resolves negative if DNA testing shows Mme Calment to be Yvonne Calment, and positive otherwise.\n3-- \nIn the unlikely event that both of the criteria above become relevant and yield inconsistent resolutions, the question will resolve according to criterion (2).\nIn all these cases, the question will retroactively close one week before the test results are officially announced.\nIf the question doesn't resolve before the official resolution date, it will resolve ambiguous.\n\nFurther reading\n---------------\n\nIn addition to the writings listed above, readers may want to consult the following papers:\n--- \nZak &amp; Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/rej.2019.2227) (in favor of the ID switch hypothesis).\n--- \nRobine, Allard, Herrmann &amp; Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:10:58.834Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 157,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:10.479Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 165,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are &lt;25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:15.989Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:22.136Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 177,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:27.872Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 111,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&amp;iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&amp;iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:\n“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”\nA gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))\nSee: [Will companies meet their animal welfare commitments?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XdekdWJWkkhur9gvr/will-companies-meet-their-animal-welfare-commitments) for a sceptical perspective.\nWill Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?\nQuestion will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an announcement by Restaurant Brands International which contains unambiguous language (\"we have made progress towards our commitment\" would resolve negatively, whereas \"globally, we are only sourcing pork from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls\" would resolve positively). \nIf the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:33.375Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:39.050Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1463,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:45.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 161,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:51.091Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.\nSince biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:11:56.752Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-08-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2095-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled \"Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?\", Scott Alexander wrote:\nImagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.\nIf this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.\nThis question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:\nLet the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. \nWhat will be the value of F/P?\nThe index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:\n1--climate change \n2--global warming \n3--greenhouse gas \n4--greenhouse effect \n5--fossil fuels \n6--carbon dioxide \n7--sea level rise \n8--emissions \n9--renewable energy \n10-climate science \nThe search terms used to generate the data are:\n---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) \n---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) \n---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&amp;q=climate%20change,climate%20science) \nThe normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:02.344Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:07.992Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 370,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:13.200Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-12-31T22:44:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-12-31T22:44:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:18.533Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 56,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\na private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\nWhat will be the population of Próspera in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of people who are citizens of Próspera as of 2035-01-01, according to the city's own data.\nIf this data is published with lower than daily resolution (e.g. monthly or yearly), the number corresponding to the time interval containing 2035-01-01 will be used (e.g. January 2035 or 2035).\nIf this data is published with higher than daily resolution, it will be averaged over all data points contained in 2035-01-01.\nIf Próspera ceases to exist before resolution, the question resolves as 0. Three randomly appointed active Metaculus moderators will determine via simple majority vote whether the city has ceased to exist or not. This will cover edge cases like the city changing its name and location or the project undergoing substantial legal and political changes.\nIf Próspera still exists but the population data is not available even upon request, this question resolves ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:23.905Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2034-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:29.412Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:34.792Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 291,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. \nBut this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:\nWhen will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?\nWill resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:41.209Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:46.419Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-14T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:51.708Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:12:57.168Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as &gt; Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:02.446Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:08.665Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 634,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T21:50:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T21:50:34Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:19.471Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:24.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:31.027Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:36.385Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 571,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:41.652Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 135,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:47.204Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:52.460Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 240,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm())\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:13:58.517Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 194,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
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{
"title": "What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:03.881Z",
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{
"title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWill an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nThis question resolves positive if a single geoengineering effort to fertilise an ocean with the intention of stimulating biomass growth successfully introduces 50 tonnes of iron into an ocean by the end of 2023. \nThe fertiliser must contain the equivalent of 50 tonnes of iron, which contains [895335 moles of iron](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). Hence, fertilisers that contain compounds of iron must also contain at least 895335 moles of iron. For example, [136 tonnes of iron sulfate (FeSO4)](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron+Sulfate/to/grams) contains roughly 895335 moles of iron. In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nA single geoengineering effort is here defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of various organisations (e.g. national government, research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:09.557Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z",
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{
"title": "While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.\nAlcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nSo, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.\n[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).\nThe Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.\nWhat will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?\nThis counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. \n\"Available\" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\nIf nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:20.233Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
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{
"title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:25.392Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
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{
"title": "When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:31.214Z",
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"numforecasts": 183,
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"publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
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"resolve_time": "2050-03-07T08:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:36.521Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 163,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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{
"title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:41.953Z",
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"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;terms-10-operator=OR&amp;terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&amp;terms-10-field=all&amp;terms-11-operator=OR&amp;terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&amp;terms-11-field=all&amp;terms-12-operator=OR&amp;terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&amp;terms-12-field=all&amp;terms-13-operator=OR&amp;terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-13-field=all&amp;terms-14-operator=OR&amp;terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-14-field=all&amp;terms-15-operator=OR&amp;terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&amp;terms-15-field=all&amp;terms-16-operator=OR&amp;terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&amp;terms-16-field=all&amp;terms-17-operator=OR&amp;terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&amp;terms-17-field=all&amp;terms-18-operator=OR&amp;terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&amp;terms-18-field=all&amp;terms-19-operator=OR&amp;terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&amp;terms-19-field=all&amp;terms-20-operator=OR&amp;terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&amp;terms-20-field=all&amp;terms-21-operator=OR&amp;terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&amp;terms-21-field=all&amp;terms-22-operator=OR&amp;terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&amp;terms-22-field=all&amp;terms-23-operator=OR&amp;terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&amp;terms-23-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:47.248Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 164,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:53.288Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 136,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:14:58.801Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 107,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:04.139Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 158,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:09.984Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the Wolfram Physics Project, Stephen Wolfram and co-authors [have proposed](https://writings.stephenwolfram.com/2020/04/finally-we-may-have-a-path-to-the-fundamental-theory-of-physics-and-its-beautiful/) a class of models to represent fundamental physics. \nWill Stephen Wolfram (and/or his co-authors) receive a Nobel prize in physics for this work before the end of 2035?\nThis question resolves positively if Stephen Wolfram, or Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov win the nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035. For a positive resolution, the Nobel Prize committee must refer to work published by any of these individuals that is directly related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project. By \"related to the 2020 Wolfram Physics Project\", we mean that the work must build on a similar approach or set of insights as those explored in the Wolfram Physics Project, as judged by Metaculus admin.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:15.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 201,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-04-20T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:20.697Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 562,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:26.917Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 198,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-05T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-15T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as &gt;2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:32.169Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:38.688Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)\nPsilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.\nDespite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.\nFrom [the Atlantic, December 2016:](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/the-life-changing-magic-of-mushrooms/509246/)\nA pair of randomized, blinded studies published Thursday in The Journal of Psychopharmacology provide the most robust evidence to date that a single dose of psilocybin can provide relief from the anxiety and gloom associated with cancer for at least six months.\nRoughly 40 percent of people with cancer suffer from a mood disorder, which increases their risk of suicide and impairs treatment. Evidence they can be helped by antidepressants is weak. “People are facing their own mortality, their own demise,” said Roland Griffiths, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and the lead author of one of the studies. “That’s a very special and quite poignant vulnerability that many people have in facing life-threatening illnesses.” And while some see the laissez faire approach to governing as a positive for research regulation, others believe the regressive Department of Justice could [stand in the way](https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/28/15880260/trump-jeff-sessions-fda-mdma-psychedelic-drug-safety-research)\n“I do feel very optimistic,\" says Rick Doblin, executive director of psychedelic research nonprofit MAPS, a leading funder of psychedelic research. \"One of the Trump administration's main things is lower regulation. They're pro business and pro making it easier for Big Pharma to get drugs through the FDA. And that benefits us.\"\nBut the FDA isn’t as far up the food chain as other influential agencies. DEA licenses are required for psychedelic research. And Trump has given Attorney General Sessions plenty of leeway in drug policy, says Erik Altieri, executive director of marijuana-focused nonprofit NORML. “It seems that the people really calling the shots are those far closer to Trump than those running the FDA,” says Altieri. “The proof will be in the pudding here about who actually sways Trump's opinion, and what he will be willing to tolerate.”\nLast year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the timeline is almost [certainly a decade.](http://www.businessinsider.com/when-psychedelics-approved-for-mental-illness-depression-2017-1)\n\"I'm absolutely sure that, within ten years, psilocybin will be an accepted treatment for depression,\"David Nutt, the director of the neuropsychopharmacology unit in the division of brain sciences at Imperial College London told me last month. \nSo will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.\nThe team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:45.306Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 274,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-30T01:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-08-28T05:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:50.733Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.\nQuestion: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? \nThe question will resolve as positive if (as indicated by credible media reports) Mohammed bin Salman becomes king of Saudi Arabia.\nIt will resolve as negative if:\n1) Someone else replaces Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia.\n2) The monarchy no longer functionally rules Saudia Arabia (for example because of a revolution)\n3) Mohammed bin Salman is unable to assume office (for example because of his death)\n4) Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud remains king of Saudi Arabia till 31/12/2035 (at which time he would be 100 years old).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:15:55.910Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:01.144Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 86,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:11.873Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&amp;P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:17.154Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-03-28T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:23.189Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 376,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?\nThis will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.\nIf the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:29.138Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 45,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:37.026Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 283,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:42.255Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-28T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-06-01T18:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:47.561Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 170,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&amp;T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:52.780Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 135,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6976/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-meta-charities/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf meta is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:16:58.181Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)\nNevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.\nThis question asks:\nWill any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030? \nA Kurdish state can be defined as any polity with the word 'Kurd', 'Kurdish', or 'Kurdistan' in its name, or with over half of its population of Kurdish ethnicity as validated by a reputable source.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:03.941Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 296,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.\nThese thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. \n[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.\nDespite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)\nHaiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)\nThis question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:09.170Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 153,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:14.844Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:20.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:25.708Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6977/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-animal-welfare/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, the [2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf animal welfare is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:31.028Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:42.900Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 92,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.\nThe spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:\nThe new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.\nOver time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.\nPeacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”\nIf there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.\nBefore 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?\nThis question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.\n---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered. \n---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation. \n---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation. \n---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:48.193Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 382,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&amp;fuel=ELEC&amp;ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:53.358Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 27,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:13:54Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-12-31T20:10:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:17:59.602Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-10T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2035-12-30T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-12-30T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:04.801Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&amp;P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of &lt;20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:10.549Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 120,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:15.904Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:21.183Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7078/apple-m2-release-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Apple M1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_M1) processor is currently used in multiple Apple models, and they have indicated that they will continue developing additional generations.\nWhen will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"second generation\" means an architecture change, not simply an addition of cores.\nThe question will resolve when the announcement is made, likely during one of Apple's keynotes.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:26.588Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:32.164Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 198,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:37.392Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 106,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs [refusing to use donated money as directed](https://www.insidephilanthropy.com/home/2016/1/3/donor-advised-funds-drawbacks)[1] or using donated money [for its own benefit](https://www.philanthropy.com/article/Nevada-Court-Says/212899). To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat is the probability that at least 10% of all funds held in DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:42.625Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-07-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:18:47.876Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:00.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.\nAs Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146), \nIn a mature form, molecular nanotechnology would enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that can feed on dirt or other organic matter. Such replicators could eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight. \nPlants with ‘leaves’ no more efficient than today’s solar cells could out‐compete real plants, crowding the biosphere with an inedible foliage. Tough omnivorous “bacteria” could out‐compete real bacteria: They could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. A person of malicious intent in possession of this technology might cause a catastrophe on Earth by releasing such nanobots into the environment.\nSuch self-replicating systems, if not countered, could make the earth largely uninhabitable. Other potential risks include [ecological and health disasters resulting from nano-pollutants](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollution_from_nanomaterials), [the use of misuse of nanotechnology weaponry](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-nanoweapons-paving-the-road-to-human-extinction_us_59332a52e4b00573ab57a3fe), and, given the general-purpose character of nanotech, possibly much more.\nMoreover, the technology to produce a destructive nanobot seems considerably easier to develop than the technology to create an effective defense against such an attack (a global nanotech immune system, an “active shield”). Regulation might also be hard. Nanotech doesn’t require rare radioactive isotopes or large, easily identifiable manufacturing plants, as does production of nuclear weapons.\nAlthough only small portion of scientists might currently be working to develop self-replicating nanotech, [a recent study done for NASA's Institute for Advanced Concepts](https://foresight.org/study_finds_self-replicating_nanomachines_feasible/) by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems suggests that a useful self-replicating machine could be less complex than a [Pentium 4 chip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pentium_4), and uncovered no road blocks to extending macroscale systems to microscale and then to nanoscale self-replicating systems. Drexler [points out that much of recent surprising progress](https://www.theguardian.com/science/small-world/2013/oct/21/big-nanotech-atomically-precise-manufacturing-apm) comes from disparate fields, and isn't labelled generally \"nanotechnology\".\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment nanotechnology?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nanotechnology catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:11.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 149,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-06-01T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:16.617Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 137,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:27.328Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:32.676Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.43000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:39.042Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 407,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-30T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover &gt;50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:44.442Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 186,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:49.671Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 175,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:19:55.160Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 211,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:00.468Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a \"phantom genre.\"\nThe Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.\nWill a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? \nResolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030.\n(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish).\n-------- EN ESPAÑOL:\nEspaña tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma».\nEl público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando.\n¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género?\nLa respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.\n(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:05.982Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-03T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).\nOverfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).\nSeveral clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).\nAn IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean fish company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms \"clean fish\" or \"clean meat company\" producing \"fish\", where \"clean meat\" may be interchanged with \"cell-based\", \"in vitro\", \"cultivated\", or \"cultured\", and \"fish\" with any particular fish (e.g. \"clean tuna\"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:16.653Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704)\nAccording to the BBC: \nIt emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say.\nThe researchers are concerned that it could mutate further so that it can spread easily from person to person, and trigger a global outbreak.\nThe virus, which the researchers call G4 EA H1N1, can grow and multiply in the cells that line the human airways.\nThey found evidence of recent infection in people who worked in abattoirs and the swine industry in China when they looked at data from 2011 to 2018.\nCurrent flu vaccines do not appear to protect against it, although they could be adapted to do so if needed.\nThe virus is related to the H1N1/09 strain responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic, and also distantly to the strain which caused the 1918 flu pandemic (both are H1N1 flu strains).\n[A peer-reviewed paper from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)](https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117) stated that \"G4 EA H1N1 viruses possess all the essential hallmarks of being highly adapted to infect humans ... Controlling the prevailing G4 EA H1N1 viruses in pigs and close monitoring of swine working populations should be promptly implemented.\"\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any major organization with responsibility for public health matters, such as the World Health Organization or a successor organization, declare that a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus pandemic has begun?\nFor a positive resolution, a major public health organization, including but not limited to the WHO, CDC, or a United Nations health agency, must confirm (via press release, news bulletin, or other public statement) that a human pandemic connected to a G4 EA H1N1 swine influenza virus has begun. This statement must be issued prior to 1 January 2025. In the event that no such statement is issued prior to 1 January 2025, this question shall resolve negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:22.000Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:28.535Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 192,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.\nVolume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from \"gentle\" to \"mega-colossal\") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).\nThe scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.\nAn eruption rated level six on the VEI would involve ejecta volume of at least 10 km3, a plume height of at least 20 km, and substantial troposhperic and stratospheric injection of material.\nThree eruptions ranking level six have occurred since 1900: [Santa Maria in 1902](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Mar%C3%ADa_(volcano)#1902_eruption), [Novarupta in 1912](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novarupta#Eruption_of_1912), and [Mount Pinatubo in 1991](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo).\nThe most recent level seven eruption occurred at [Mount Tambora in 1815](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_Tambora), and the most recent level eight eruption [took place about 26,500 years ago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption).\nBy 2010, the [Global Volcanism Program of the Smithsonian Institution](http://volcano.si.edu/) had catalogued the assignment of a VEI for 7,742 volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene (the last 11,700 years) which account for about 75% of the total known eruptions during the Holocene. Of these 7,742 eruptions, about 49% have a VEI of ≤ 2, and 90% have a VEI ≤ 3.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will any eruption rated level six, seven, or eight occur anywhere on Earth?\nThis question resolves positively if any competent authority on volcanism credibly assesses that an eruption occurring after this question opens but before 1 January 2025 is rated level six, seven or eight on the Volanic Explosivity Index. \nIn case of major controversy in the scientific community over this assessment, the resolution shall rest upon the VEI level assigned to the event by either the US Geological Survey or the comparable authority of the nation in which the event takes place. In the event that these numbers differ, the higher of the two shall be taken as correct for purposes of resolving this question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:34.179Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 155,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources?\nGravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, \"approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)\". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated.\nWill the GWB be detected by 2075?\nWill a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?\nThis resolves positively if a peer-reviewed publication announces that a gravitational wave background has been detected with confident attribution to early universe (pre-recombination) sources. Statistical significance should be at &gt; 4-sigma.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:39.994Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 19,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-18T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:45.604Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 172,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)). \nCurrently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)\nWill the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.\nQuestion resolves as affirmative if the incarceration rate, as reported by the BJS, drops below 500 per 100,000 for at least one year within 2019-2022.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:51.133Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 76,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-15T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-03-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-05-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:20:56.705Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food.\nWill McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)?\nThis question will resolve positively if McDonald's is the first of the following the feature a cultivated meat product on their menu in any location: Subway, McDonald's, KFC, Pizza Hut, Burger King, Domino’s, Hunt Brothers Pizza, Taco Bell, Wendy's, or Hardee's. This question will resolve negatively if none of these QSRs offer cultivated meat by the resolution date (December 31, 2026)\nA restaurant is said to feature a cultivated meat product on its menu, if, in at least one location that is open to the public, any member of the public is able to order the product, without requiring a reservation. \nThe product must be for sale, and free samples do not count. \"Pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution.\nAny product and any meat may count for positive resolution (nuggets, patties, hotdogs, and so forth). The relevant meat substitute must contain at least 25% cultivated meat by weight.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:03.702Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-22T23:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related question:\n---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) \nEconomic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:\nWhat will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?\nThis resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as\nthis question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:08.957Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SiH4 &lt; CH4\nb) PbH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; CH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SiH4\nc) CH4 &lt; SiH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; PbH4\nd) CH4 &lt; PbH4 &lt; GeH4 &lt; SnH4 &lt; SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at &gt; Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:14.221Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "G.R.R. Martin's epic series \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series \"Game of Thrones.\" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.\nAs of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.\nBy the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing? \nFor positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:19.523Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-01-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-05-18T13:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first exaflop performer appear?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. \nViewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).\nAccording to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.\nComputational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is \"exa\", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.\nAt what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:25.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 147,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-01-05T05:13:34Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-12-31T12:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:31.528Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [synthetic biological weapon](https://futurism.com/project-spark-ontario-health-data) is a 'living' agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target host. For the purposes of this question, we focus on human hosts, exclude weapons that consist only of toxins, even if their source is biological: synthetic or otherwise. Nor does it include something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural unmodified malaria. 'Living' means it must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or like a virus, capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself. A synthetic biological agent may be a 'natural' disease causing organism that has at least been genetically engineered (and not merely selectively bred); an entirely new kind of organism, virus, or similar created from scratch; or anything in between those extremes. \nIf the agent is based on an existing disease causing organism, there must be confirmation that the symptoms of infection by the disease causing agent(s) are confirmed by a credible medical source to be different than those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious 'behavior', or capabilities of the agent are confirmed different than the original. This is to exclude infections that are medically indistuingishable from the natural version, which might make cases too difficult to verify. \nThe consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that could concievably be offered as a product for improving the health of a customer, to improve athletic or cognitive abilities, for recreational use, or any other purpose desireable to those infected. It must be confirmed to be at least capable of adversely impacting the victims' physical or mental health, making them smell in a way that attracts trained dogs, causing them to develop an addiction to some brand of fast food, or some other undesireable effect.\nWill such an agent infect 100 people by 2030? \nThis question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed \"infected\" by one or more confirmed synthetic \"biological weapon\"s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:36.874Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 180,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-11-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:43.316Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 562,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).\nIn GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.\nGivewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:\n--- \n[Why I mostly believe in Worms](https://blog.givewell.org/2016/12/06/why-i-mostly-believe-in-worms/)\n--- \n[How thin the reed](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/01/04/how-thin-the-reed-generalizing-from-worms-at-work/)\nSome more information is available in [this](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/deworming) evidence overview, written by GiveWell, which cites several papers, and [this](https://www.evidenceaction.org/a-summary-of-the-deworming-evidence-base/) evidence overview, which was written by Evidence Action. While Evidence Action does currently run a deworming programme, they have proved [capable](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/6/7/18654620/evidence-action-no-lean-season-givewell) of changing their minds on programmes when the evidence changes.\nCurrently, GiveWell lists seven [top charities](), of which four are deworming programmes.\nThis question asks:\nAt the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?\n--- \nResolution will be according to the GiveWell [website](https://www.givewell.org/) on 2026/01/01.\n--- \nIf GiveWell no longer maintains a list of \"top charities\", but allows donors to donate funds which will be re-granted at GiveWell's discretion, this question resolves positively if at least 10% of these regrants go to deworming charities in the year 2025.\n--- \n\"Mass deworming\" is taken to mean treating all or almost all of the individuals in a group for parasitic worms, without testing to see whether they have them. This is common practice due to the low cost and excellent safety profile of deworming medication, as well as the relative expense of testing.\n--- \nIf a charity has multiple programmes, but GiveWell restricts its donations to a particular programme, that programme is considered to be the \"primary intervention\" for the purposes of resolution. Otherwise, whichever intervention the organisation spends most on is considered the \"primary intervention\".\n--- \nIf deworming medication is administered in addition to something else, for example a vaccine or vitamin supplement, at the same time, then whether \"deworming\" is the primary intervention will be determined by whether the majority of the value of the programme comes from deworming, according to GiveWell's CEA.\n--- \nIf GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditions for positive resolution above make sense, this question resolves ambiguously.\n--- \nSome of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:48.993Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T16:41:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Probably the highest risk for a natural pandemic is posed by new versions of influenza. Since 1500 there have been 13 or more influenza pandemics according to [this list](http://www.flu.gov/pandemic/history/), with five in the past 120 years, in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968 and 1977 (since then there is also a [listing for a 2009 pandemic](http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_13/en/) at the WHO.)\nThe definition of a \"pandemic\" varies among sources; here we will define a \"significant pandemic\" to be a single-year epidemic that causes more than about five times the annual [estimated 250K-500K deaths due to seasonal influenza](http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/). Of the 6 most recent pandemic, probably two (1918 and 1957) fulfill this criterion. We then ask:\nWill there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?\nResolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:54.264Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 143,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:21:59.588Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 190,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon.\nWill India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. \nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. \n“The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of India for this to resolve positively. An Indian citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:11.204Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.\nA [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:16.428Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 30,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 423.89 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 423.89 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:21.815Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:27.161Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:32.616Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:37.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 24,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nWe also have the corresponding questions for the other causes, see the [2025 EA survey mini-series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ea-survey-2025).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:44.045Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)\nThe Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.\n[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic \"is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.\" \nIn 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).\nWhat will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?\nThe question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.\nThe Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:49.985Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 75,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T07:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:22:55.152Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 222,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Balloons to the edge of space – when?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.\nBallooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)\nBalloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.\nWhen will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:00.436Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 136,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-02-19T20:11:55Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-02-15T20:11:57Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&amp;C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&amp;C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents &amp; Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\nCIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:\n\"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\"\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.\nA question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:06.003Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 34,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-28T21:19:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T20:19:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Moon Express](http://www.moonexpress.com/about-us/) has released a plan for going to the moon and then mining the moon for resources. \nThey have [three missons planned.](http://www.moonexpress.com/expeditions/) The first will be a scout to survey the moon. The second mission they will send up lunar prospecting equipement. The third misson is to have their first sample return expedition \"harvest moon\" set to be in 2021.\nThis question concerns the third mission. We'll give them an extra year:\nWill they bring any lunar material back by start of 2023? \nQuestion resolves positive if a successful lunar harvest is made by Moon Express by December 30,2022, returning lunar material safely to Earth.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:11.236Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 234,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-06T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-16T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:23.284Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 54,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "3000-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:28.731Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 67,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the value of the (herein described) \"AI winter index\" at end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/974/what-will-be-the-value-of-the-herein-described-ai-winter-index-at-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new \"winter,\" as argued in [this article](https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/04/the-ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/). We shall define an index as follows:\n--- \n+1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 [5-year Google trends search](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&amp;q=%22AI%20winter%22) on \"AI winter\" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at &lt; 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase \"AI winter\" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if the fraction of [listed YC funded startups](https://yclist.com) that mention \"AI\" or \"machine learning\" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing \"artificial intelligence\" OR \"machine learning\" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the [corresponding search for 2018](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22artificial+intelligence%22&amp;terms-0-field=abstract&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22machine+learning%22&amp;terms-1-field=abstract&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;date-year=2018&amp;date-filter_by=date_range&amp;date-from_date=2018-01-01&amp;date-to_date=2018-06-01&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)\n--- \n+1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to \"machine learning\" divided by those limited to \"artificial intelligence\" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.\nAny of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.\nWhat will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index? \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:34.220Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 295,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.050000000000000044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:39.504Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-10T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-05-13T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:23:50.044Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:06.542Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 161,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-14T16:14:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-14T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [\"the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.\"](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.\nThis question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?\nIn 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).\nThis question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:11.960Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-09T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7004/gdp-of-india-for-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing. China, USA and India are currently the three most populous and most polluting countries in the world, collectively responsible for over half the CO2 emissions and around 40% of the world’s population.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:17.429Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 23,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil.\nWill Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?\n2050 World Cup is included to this resolution. \nFIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.\nIf any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:28.128Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-25T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \"&gt;\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:33.388Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 98,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.\nIt is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?\nIn order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:40.524Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, \nhow much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:45.754Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 107,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2036-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the student loan debt bubble \"pop\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. \n[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school \"with a significant amount of loans\" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's \"trillion\" with a \"T\". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)\nIn November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):\nThe average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. \nMany independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.\nIn April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that \"In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.\"\nBillionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): \"I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.\"\nClearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble \"burst\"? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by \nA cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.\nA [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.\nWe'll ask: \nIn what year (if ever) will the 3-year rate, as defined above, reach 20% OR the 12 year rate reach 40%? \nIn each case the resolution date is defined by the middle of the year at the end of the interval in question. Resolution is by govt. or private numbers comparable in methodology and results to the above two reports.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:50.977Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 163,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-28T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-08-31T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:24:56.215Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 124,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T18:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:01.496Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:06.668Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine is [MDMA](http://www.drugs.com/illicit/mdma.html) - commonly called ecstasy, molly, or X. MDMA has a [storied history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MDMA#History) beginning from its synthesis in 1912, to its use in psychotherapy in the '60s and its advent into recreational use in popular culture. While being a [Schedule I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act#Schedule_I_controlled_substances) substance in the U.S., and in general a legally controlled substance around the world, [it's argued](https://www.aclu.org/news/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified?redirect=criminal-law-reform/court-rejects-harsh-federal-drug-sentencing-guideline-scientifically-unjustified) the classification is based on outdated science and that the drug is over-criminalized. \nMDMA chiefly acts as a releasing agent for serotonin, norepinephrine, and dopamine; [here's how it works](https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/teaching-packets/neurobiology-ecstasy/section-ii/1-how-does-ecstasy-work-serotonin-pathways-in-brain). It's taken recreationally to induce euphoria, sociability, relaxation, heightened sensation and sexuality, but also brings on short-term effects like dehydration and nausea, and potential long-term effects like paranoia and addiction. However, evidence for the true extent of harm from MDMA [isn't rock-solid](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26746590/?i=16&amp;from=MDMA) and it appears that side-effects can be mitigated through moderate usage and dosing. There is a body of evidence for the efficacy of MDMA-assisted psychiatric treatment, and [many advocate](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931692/) that more research to evaluate MDMA's usefulness in this regard.\nNon-profit [MAPS](http://www.maps.org/research/mdma), the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, is the only organization with funding in MDMA clinical trials to assist in the treatment of PTSD and social anxiety in autistic adults. MAPS is [pushing for FDA approval](http://www.businessinsider.com/ecstacy-legalization-2015-10) of a medically available MDMA, and they are poised to enter [phase 3](https://www.nlm.nih.gov/services/ctphases.html) clinical trials in 2017. This is the last stage of research which will address the safety and effectiveness of the drug, and they are looking at trials in 200-400 people over the next 4-5 years. Their findings, if successful, are expected for submission to the FDA for approval in 2021. However, [the organization says it needs about $20 million to complete the trials.](http://thescienceexplorer.com/brain-and-body/mdma-could-be-sold-legal-fda-approved-drug-just-5-years) At that point, the results can go to the FDA to assess MDMA as a legal medical drug. Will this happen?\nThis question will resolve positively if by Jan 1st, 2021, the MDMA stage 3 trial is complete, with the results and an official application submitted to the FDA toward medical approval.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:13.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 186,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-04-10T03:32:13Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.\nOn February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,\nOne of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.\nThis question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (&gt;10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:19.842Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 345,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years &gt;= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:25.626Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stacey Abrams, failed 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate who has yet to concede that election as of January 31, 2020, thinks she will be elected president in the next 20 years. Do you agree?\nSource: [Stacey Abrams Thinks She’ll Be President By 2040](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/stacey-abrams-thinks-shell-be-president-by-2040/)\nThis resolves positively if Stacey Abrams is elected president in or before 2040 and the result is not overturned prior to inauguration, whether or not she is actually inaugurated. This resolves negatively by any other outcome.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:30.914Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-11-04T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2041-01-20T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.\nIt seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:\nWhen will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? \nQuestion resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.\nResolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.\n(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:36.112Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:41.499Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 757,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:46.768Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will US income inequality increase by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:53.961Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 235,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:25:59.239Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.\nFrom the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.\nChina has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).\nWill China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?\nThis question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).\nFor the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).\nPreviously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:\nThis question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:09.947Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 537,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-19T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-10-23T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:15.672Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 223,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):\nIn these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.\nIn this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?\nThe resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nRelated questions:\n---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) \n---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) \n---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) \n---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) \n---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:21.156Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 144,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7139/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Próspera](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Pr%C3%B3spera) is\na private charter city and special economic zone on the island of Roatán in the Central American state of Honduras. The city is based on a concept by American economist Paul Romer and is intended to form a quasi-independent city-state with private government and its own fiscal, regulatory, and legal architecture.\nThe city is being developed in a previously unoccupied 58 acre area that has been carved out of Honduras under a legal arrangement called ZEDE (Spanish acronym for Zone for Employment and Economic Development). Under this regulation, other parts of Honduras could be annexed to Próspera in the future as long as the owners of the land are willing to sell it to the city. This land need not be contiguous with the current tract, which could turn Próspera into a network of exclaves within Honduras.\nThe city currently contains only three buildings and has no permanent population. The project seeks to attract both Hondurans escaping poverty and violence and highly mobile international professionals with a package of pro-market, business-friendly, libertarian policies.\nFor an in-depth review of the project, see [this post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera) by Scott Alexander.\nScott [forecasted](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-predictions-for-2021) there was a 30% chance that Próspera would have a population &gt;= 1,000 in 2021.\nWill Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?\nThis question resolves positive if the population (according to credible sources) of Próspera is &gt;= 1000 at any point during 2021.\nIf no sources claim this, but Scott Alexander resolves his prediction positively, then this question resolves positive (at the admin's discretion, to avoid him personally gaming the system).\nIf not, it resolves negative.\nRelated questions \n[What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:26.785Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-01T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-20T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:32.138Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 610,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-06-05T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.\nPoker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. \nAn example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.\nAnd so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?\n\nDefinition of “significant competition”:\n----------------------------------------\n\nA Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:\n---more than 300 hands are played \n---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) \n---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) \n---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. \nThere are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:\n1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. \n2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. \n\nClarifications and fine print:\n------------------------------\n\n---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. \n---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. \n---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. \n--- \nThe rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: \n------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. \n------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. \n------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:38.389Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 169,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-03-04T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-01T20:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2220-02-28T20:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:43.721Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-09-04T19:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:49.113Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:54.421Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 96,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:26:59.682Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\nIt is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.\nA world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:05.490Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 159,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On December 7 2020, 3 days before the release CD PROJEKT RED's highly-anticipated game Cyberpunk 2077, the stock price of parent company CD PROJEKT S.A. reached an All Time High of zł464.20, slightly beating the previous ATH of zł462.00 four months earlier.\n[Cyberpunk 2077 had a rough launch (PDF warning)](https://www.cdprojekt.com/en/wp-content/uploads-en/2020/12/call-transcript_en.pdf), contributing to the tumble of CDR's price to zł238.5 just a week later. The stock price has been trending sideways ever since, with a momentary rises (Wall Street Bets) and falls (ransomware attack).\nWill CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021?\nThe question will resolve positively if the stock price of CDR reaches zł462.00 or greater, at any time during regular trading hours, by the end of 2021, as indicated on [TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/GPW-CDR/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:10.666Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under <a>$40/barrel</a> in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:17.030Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 364,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:22.222Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies.\nEuropean Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of \"enriched\" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free.\nIn July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the \"[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)\" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project \"[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)\". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023.\n[Directives](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#directives) are a type of EU law that define goals that have to be incorporated into the national law of countries in the EU within a certain time period but allow some flexibility for countries to apply rules to achieve these goals, and to set stricter standards if they wish. [Regulations](https://europa.eu/european-union/law/legal-acts_en#regulations) are binding rules with immediate direct effect in member states and therefore are much stronger instruments but do not allow flexibility to accommodate different legal systems across the 27 EU countries. As the only institution in the EU that can formally initiate legislation, it is up to the European Commission to launch a directive or regulation. Proposals move back and forth through the other institutions of the EU for amendments and votes and may eventually be passed into law. A number of EU members have announced their own national restrictions on caging hens that go beyond existing EU requirements.\n---Germany [announced](https://www.bmel.de/EN/topics/animals/farm-animals/laying-hen-husbandry-q-and-a.html) a phase-out deadline for existing cage holdings by the end of 2025, with an extension to this deadline of up to a maximum of three years (2028) only in special cases of hardship. \n---In Austria, a [ban](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/research/species-laying-hens/laying-hens-case-study-austria/) on enriched cages comes into force in 2020. \n---In Luxembourg, the [ban](http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmenvfru/writev/egg/egg.pdf) is already in place and no cage hen farms are operating there. \n---In September 2020, the Deputy Chamber of the Czech Parliament approved a total [ban on cages](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/09/victory-for-czech-hens?utm_campaign%3Dcageage%26utm_source%3Dfacebook%26utm_medium%3Dciwf%26fbclid%3DIwAR3jCdGH3OATBg9o3vJBmpbZ6PXrjLAR3U5z8jHJQH9crY1iGDyBDTSPPDQ) for laying hens from 2027. It has yet to be passed by the Czech Senate. \n---The Slovak agricultural minister [announced](https://www.ciwf.org.uk/news/2020/02/the-slovak-republic-to-end-the-cage-age) the intention to phase out cages by 2030. \n---In the Walloon Region in Belgium, the government has adopted the [Walloon Code of Animal Welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/ambitious-animal-welfare-code-wallonia-including-ban-battery-caged-hens), under which keeping hens in enriched cages will become illegal by 2028. Flanders, the other major province in Belgium, was also due to make such a ban but it has [not happened yet](https://www.animalrights.be/ben-weyts-waar-blijft-het-verbod-op-kooieieren) (although there was some suggestion back in 2009 that a full cage ban would not come [until 2040](https://www.thepoultrysite.com/articles/upgrading-hen-housing-latest-developments-in-europe)). \n---France is to [ban](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/2/France-to-ban-sale-of-eggs-from-caged-hens-by-2022-251161E/) the sale of whole eggs from caged hens in shops by 2022 (but not eggs broken and used as ingredients). \n---The Netherlands plans to [ban enriched cages](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/calling-dutch-agricultural-minister-ban-cages-laying-hens) from 2021, but allow a larger type of cage (colony cages) to continue to be used. \nIn September 2020, the Czech ministry of agriculture submitted a [proposal](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-10844-2020-INIT/en/pdf) for an EU-wide ban on cages for laying hens from 2030 at an EU council meeting and media [claimed](http://eagri.cz/public/web/mze/tiskovy-servis/tiskove-zpravy/x2020_ministr-zemedelstvi-jednotny-trh-by-mel.html) that \"the European Commission and some member states, e. g. Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden or Slovakia, welcomed the Czech proposal.” Note that Czechia is due to take over the rotating Presidency of the European Council in July 2022 until December 2022 and Sweden will take over from January 2023 to June 2023. The Greek Minister of Rural Development and Food, Makis Voridis, [signalled](https://www.agro24.gr/agrotika/agrotiki-epikairotita/eyropaiki-enosi/yper-tis-ethelontikis-symmetohis-sta-oikologika) support for an EU ban on the use of cages for hens. Cypriot Minister for Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment, Kadis, [allegedly](https://twitter.com/Olga_CIWF/status/1310932201354256385) offered support for an EU ban. The EU Commission serves a 5 year term, and the current term is due to end on 31 October 2024.\nWill the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?\nThis question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. \nIn the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.43000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:27.786Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 150,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-11-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:33.014Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al., 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Solar radiation management (SRM) supposes that deliberate addition of aerosol to the stratosphere could reduce climate risks by partially offsetting the radiative forcing from accumulating greenhouse gases. The deployment stratospheric sulfate aerosols have been proposed as a method to reflect more energy away from the planet, by increasing the planetary albedo, and thereby cool the planet, ameliorating some of the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nAccording to [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131), sulphate aerosols have at least two cooling effects:\nIn the stratosphere they act to reflect incoming solar energy (the ‘aerosol direct effect’), but also act as [cloud condensation nuclei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei), influencing the size of cloud droplets and the persistence or lifetime of clouds (the ‘aerosol indirect effect’) and thus the reflectivity of clouds.\nUsing the [Mount Pinatubo eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo) as an analogue, [Crutzen, 2006](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9101-y) estimated a constant inflow of 5 teragrams (Tg) of Sulphur per year would be sufficient to balance the warming associated with a doubling of CO2. [Rasch et al., 2008](http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1029/2007GL032179) suggested that 1.5 Tg S per year might suffice to balance the GHG warming. Finally, [Robock et al., 2008](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008JD010050) arrived at a figure of between 1.5 and 5 Tg S per year. \nFor reference, the net inflow of sulphur to the stratosphere is believed to be of the order of 100 gigagrams of per year when no volcanic eruptions occur [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131).\nWill 100 gigagrams of sulphur be intentionally injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. grams, of sulphur is intentionally injected into the atmosphere in a single year as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023. For the injection to qualify as a geoengineering effort, reporting must strong reveal evidence that that the parties responsible for the effort have the intent to bring about long-term effects on the regional or global climate.\nFor the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).\nMoreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:38.348Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 81,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:43.572Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [an article](https://techxplore.com/news/2020-07-photon-based-enable-complex-machine.html) reporting on new developments in photonic tensor cores,\nA paper in the journal Applied Physics Reviews, by AIP Publishing, proposes a new approach to perform computations required by a neural network, using light instead of electricity. In this approach, a photonic tensor core performs multiplications of matrices in parallel, improving speed and efficiency of current deep learning paradigms.\nIn machine learning, neural networks are trained to learn to perform unsupervised decision and classification on unseen data. Once a neural network is trained on data, it can produce an inference to recognize and classify objects and patterns and find a signature within the data.\nThe photonic TPU stores and processes data in parallel, featuring an electro-optical interconnect, which allows the optical memory to be efficiently read and written and the photonic TPU to interface with other architectures.\nThe abstract from the [paper](https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0001942) reads, \nWhile several photonic neural network designs have been explored, a photonic tensor core to perform tensor operations is yet to be implemented. In this manuscript, we introduce an integrated photonics-based tensor core unit by strategically utilizing (i) photonic parallelism via wavelength division multiplexing, (ii) high 2 peta-operations-per-second throughputs enabled by tens of picosecond-short delays from optoelectronics and compact photonic integrated circuitry, and (iii) near-zero static power-consuming novel photonic multi-state memories based on phase-change materials featuring vanishing losses in the amorphous state. Combining these physical synergies of material, function, and system, we show, supported by numerical simulations, that the performance of this 4-bit photonic tensor core unit can be 1 order of magnitude higher for electrical data. The full potential of this photonic tensor processor is delivered for optical data being processed, where we find a 2–3 orders higher performance (operations per joule), as compared to an electrical tensor core unit, while featuring similar chip areas.\nPhotonic tensor cores are said to be \"ubiquitous\" in machine learning by 2030 if all three of the top machine learning cloud computing services offer photonic tensor cores for training models. The top machine learning cloud computing services are taken to the top three services that are yielded by the DuckDuckGo search, \"machine learning cloud computing service\" (If DuckDuckGo is no longer available, the following take their place in order of priority: Google, Bing).\nThis question resolves positively if photonic tensor cores are ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:48.852Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).\nIn a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler &amp; Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;\nParameter Distribution:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nI thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.\nSome of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.\nIt would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. \nIn this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:54.165Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 236,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:27:59.434Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-07-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the UK hold its next general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:04.737Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 103,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-31T22:30:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In September 2014 [a paper](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) published in the journal Aging made a remarkable claim: A treatment for Alzheimer's disease reversed cognitive decline, allowing some people with early stages of the disease to return to work. The study stressed that more extensive investigation into the treatment, called \"Metabolic Enhancement for Neurodegeneration\" or MEND was needed.\nIn June 2016, [a further study](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100981) was published, also in Aging, that followed up on the original cohort of 10 patients and included objective measures of cognitive and metabolic function that demonstrated clear improvement using the MEND protocol.\nInstead of directly treating the molecular underpinnings of Alzheimer's disease, MEND [treats the metabolic and inflammatory symptoms](https://qz.com/977133/a-ucla-study-shows-there-could-be-a-cure-for-alzheimers-disease/) of the disease. The treatment [regimen includes](http://www.aging-us.com/article/100690/text#fulltext) a low glycemic diet, stress reduction, and aids to better sleep, as well as vitamins and other products like fish oil and coconut oil. The regimen's goal was to improve metabolic function and reduce inflammation. \nAll ten patients displayed some cognitive improvement, with some noted as \"Marked\" or \"significant\" improvement. If proven out, MEND could represent a significant advance in the ongoing fight against Alzheimer's and dementia, potentially reducing the costs associated with caring for such conditions in an aging population.\nSo far, however, the MEND protocol has only been carried out in a single cohort and administered by a single research group.\nWill MEND be independently replicated by 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a research group independent of UCLA's [Buck Institute for Research on Aging](https://www.buckinstitute.org) publishes in a reputable journal results of a MEND implementation in a completely separate cohort of patients that shows similar magnitudes of cognitive improvement on or before January 1, 2025.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:11.176Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 197,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-06-12T21:21:40Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great. \nThe inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.) \nFor example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?\nIt is asked: In some quarter prior to Q1 2030, will the [linked-to index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA) have a value greater than the value 32 quarters (8 years) prior to that quarter?\nNotes: \n--- \nShould the index reach a higher level than 5 years (20 quarters) ago (prior to question closure) the question should be closed to avoid resolution while the question is open. \n--- \nShould this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day before the last (resolution triggering) data-point was released. Resolution will be through the linked-to index. \n--- \nShould the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:22.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:27.618Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 105,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-07-29T03:25:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.\nDue to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. \nWe shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.\nTherefore, it is asked: Will the transistors used in the CPU of Apple's most modern available iPhone model on January 1st, 2030 be of the same generation as those used in the CPU of the most modern available iPhone on January 1st, 2025?\nWe shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch within 15% of each other's.\nThe question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law. \nResolution shall be by credible media report.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:33.647Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 317,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:39.054Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 179,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:44.334Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male \"pill\") on the US market?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. \nWhen will such contraception be available to US men?\nFor resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) \nIt must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:28:49.688Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-08-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2017-11-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-08-05T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&amp;D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:00.221Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 147,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Suggested by [Richard Montgomery](https://www.math.ucsc.edu/faculty-research/singleton.php?&amp;singleton=true&amp;cruz_id=rmont), UCSC\nThe motion of the point masses in a [gravitational N-body system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N-body_problem) is \"bounded\" if all the inter-body distances remain less than some fixed constant for all time. For example, periodic solutions, such as these [engaging trajectories](http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/~jm/Choreographies/), are bounded. A solution is unbounded if some inter-body distance tends to infinity, meaning that some body or cluster of bodies \"escapes to infinity''. \nDensity Conjecture: In arbitrarily close proximity to the initial conditions for any bounded solution, lies an initial condition whose solution is unbounded.\nIn section 7 of his 1998 [invited lecture](https://www.emis.de/mirror/ICM98/B/3/9/) at the International Congress of Mathematicians, [Michael Herman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Herman_(mathematician)) brought wide attention to the Density conjecture, and called it \"The Oldest Open Problem in Dynamical Systems\". He asserted that Newton \"certainly believed\" the conjecture, having invoked God as the source of control for the instabilities of the N-body problem. For further detail on the problem see section 14.2 of [this reference](http://www.bourbaphy.fr/chenciner.pdf)\nLike many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has proved maddeningly difficult to assess. In Christian Marchal's [influential book](https://www.amazon.com/Three-Body-Problem-C-Marchal/dp/0444566988) on the three-body problem, he assumes fairly explicitly, but without proof, that the answer is true, essentially appealing to the idea that given sufficient time, \"everything that can happen, will happen\". The [KAM theorem](http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Kolmogorov-Arnold-MoserTheorem.html) moreover, asserts that for every \"good periodic\" solution, there is a set of positive measure of solutions which stay close to that solution for all time, and hence are bounded. These solutions form the KAM torii. There exist, however, lots of \"holes\" in the torii. [Arnol'd diffusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_diffusion) is a class of mechanisms, exploiting resonances, by which one can \"wander\" from hole to hole and thereby eventually escape to infinity. So far, the main approach to proving the Density Conjecture has involved efforts to show that Arnol'd diffusion is ubiquitous. \nWill the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years? \nResolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:05.768Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 141,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-08-28T12:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-30T12:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-08-30T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:11.003Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Universe end?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:22.625Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 605,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&amp;C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" or \"animal drugs\" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:27.927Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-02-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:33.445Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Harvard University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harvard_University) is the oldest university in the United States and has the largest [endowment](https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance/endowment), with [$40.9 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of June 30, 2019](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/partners-performance/#performance). The endowment's mission is [\"to help ensure Harvard University has the financial resources to confidently maintain and expand its leadership in education and research for future generations.\"](https://www.hmc.harvard.edu/about/).\nThe Harvard Management Company (HMC), which runs the endowment, intends the endowment to provide Harvard with a source of income for the next hundred years or longer. Will HMC achieve its goal?\nOn an inflation-adjusted basis, will the Harvard Endowment have more assets under management on June 30, 2119 than it did on June 30, 2019?\nIf the endowment's AUM as of June 30, 2119 is not publicly known, then this question will be judged using the earliest publicly-known AUM following this date.\nThe question resolves as negative if any of the following situations occur:\n---Harvard ceases to exist. \n---Harvard continues but its endowment shuts down. \n---Harvard still exists but operates under a wholly different mission (e.g., it no longer teaches students). \n---The endowment's assets still exist under one manager, but the majority is no longer being used for the benefit of Harvard. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:39.142Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2120-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:44.344Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 85,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "related questions: \n---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) \n---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) \n---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) \nIn 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_(video_game)).\nAs of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.\nI attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)\nAn AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.\nWhen will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?\nThis question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.\nWith regard to pretraining, the question allows:\n---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game \n---unlimited training on all other Atari games \n---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set \n---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. \nBesides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.\nIn general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:49.587Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-08-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:29:54.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-27T20:07:38Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T21:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-12-31T21:06:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nNuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).\nOn the other hand, \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).\n\nDefinition\n==========\n\n\"The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.\nThe energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.\"\n(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))\n\nResolution criteria\n===================\n\nIf a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.\n\nRelated questions\n=================\n\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q &gt;= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:05.523Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 56,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:19.169Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 48,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:24.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-02-14T12:50:36Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-11-17T12:50:36Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:29.862Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&amp;page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:36.173Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 114,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:42.036Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nLevels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).\nIn the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. \nOn occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).\nWhat will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:52.825Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-11T02:12:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:12:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From wikipedia \"the AI control problem is the issue of how to build a superintelligent agent that will aid its creators, and avoid inadvertently building a superintelligence that will harm its creators... approaches to the control problem include alignment, which aims to align AI goal systems with human values, and capability control, which aims to reduce an AI system's capacity to harm humans or gain control.\"\n[Here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB1OvoCNnWY&amp;list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8Ps) is an introductory video. And see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) for a definition of AGI arrival.\nWill the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence?\nThe question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.\nNote this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:30:58.129Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:03.629Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 383,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. \nOren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.\nThis question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.\nIf the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:09.415Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.\nHow much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nThe estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). \nFor the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):\n“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.\nA plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. \nFor singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. \nFor larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a \"plant-based meat\" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words \"plant-based meat\" or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"plant-based beef\" or \"plant-based burger\"), and/or variations where \"plant\" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. \"pea-based meat\" or \"soy-protein based chicken\").\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:20.956Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 135,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:28.060Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 121,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or \"Webb\") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021. \nOne of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).\nDevelopment began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.\n[The deployment process is detailed in this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTxLAGchWnA)\nIf the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?\nThe question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as [reputable journals](https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php?category=3103) or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.\nImportant: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.\nThe question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.\nThe question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:38.141Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 213,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. \nA variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. \nDuring solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.\nWhen will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:44.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-10-02T01:21:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:21:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:50.665Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:31:59.532Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 219,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2069-11-13T08:21:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2069-11-13T08:22:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:07.769Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:13.336Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 798,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-21T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. \nFrom [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):\nChandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. \nBut for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? \nQuestion resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:19.050Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-02-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2039-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will there be a mile-high building?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)\nBut guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.\nAmong them:\n--- \nThe Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 \n--- \nIn 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.\nBut when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? \nThe Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): \nAt that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. \"The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,\" the report explains. \nIt seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:25.152Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 210,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-28T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-12-15T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.\nIn 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.\nOne line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN\nWe believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile.\"\nBut maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine [clarifies the problem](http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/05/what_nike_s_breaking2_marathon_event_tells_as_about_human_performance.html): \nThe size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”\nIf “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to [rules defined](http://www.aims-worldrunning.org/world-records.html) by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).\nPlease note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and [it resolved negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/). That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!\nWill someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:33.352Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-26T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-11-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [primordial black hole](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Primordial_black_hole) (PBH) is\na hypothetical type of black hole that formed soon after the Big Bang...Since primordial black holes did not form from stellar gravitational collapse, their masses can be far below stellar mass.\nAs of this writing, no direct observational evidence of PBHs exists.\n[Dark matter](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Dark_matter) is\na form of matter thought to account for approximately 85% of the matter in the universe...Its presence is implied in a variety of astrophysical observations, including gravitational effects that cannot be explained by accepted theories of gravity unless more matter is present than can be seen.\nHowever,\ndark matter has not yet been observed directly, [therefore,] if it exists, it must barely interact with ordinary matter and radiation, except through gravity.\nIt has been suggested ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722)) that PBHs are a natural candidate for dark matter. Although astrophysical measurements and theoretical arguments have put severe constraints ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Figure 3) on the possibility that PBHs constitute a significant fraction of dark matter across most of the PBH mass range. However, the \"asteroid mass region\" between - kg has not been ruled out yet, although this may merely \"reflect the difficulty of detecting such light compact objects\" ([1](https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10722), Section IV).\nWill most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes?\nThis question resolves positively if the scientific consensus (as defined in the fine print) at resolution date is that primordial black holes represent 50% or more of the mass contained in dark matter in the observable universe today.\nThis question resolves negatively if the consensus is that said figure is less than 50% or that dark matter does not exist.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no consensus.\nThe scientific consensus on the matter will be determined following the protocol outlined in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/).\nThe question posed to the experts will be \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that primordial black holes constitute at least 50% of dark matter? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\"\nThe sample of experts will be determined using the arXiv categories \"Astrophysics of Galaxies\", \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\", and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology\".\nIf the arXiv no longer exists or the volume and/or quality of papers posted have decreased substantially (as judged by Metaculus mods) by resolution date, the sample of experts will be chosen following a similar procedure with details to be determined at the discretion the Metaculus mods. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:45.360Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2049-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \"&gt;2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:50.722Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-11-10T15:19:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-11-10T15:19:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&amp;ref=headline&amp;nl_art=7&amp;te=1&amp;nl=upshot&amp;emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.\nThis could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:\nWhat will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?\nPrices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:\n--- \nTallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183\n--- \nAmsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186\n--- \nLisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 \nHence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.\nResolution:\n---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.\n------if only given a range, take the median. \n---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. \n---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:32:56.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 58,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-10-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-06-12T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:01.681Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:07.132Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:14.701Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 716,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3434/philpapers-survey-mini-series-support-for-open-borders/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:20.107Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:25.435Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:31.383Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:\n---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination \n---A report from another body of the United Nations \n---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson \n---A report by another credible source \nIf the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.\nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. \nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:36.826Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2052-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:43.179Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 47,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:48.512Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 151,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-29T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2052-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will programs write programs for us?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since the early days of \"machine code\" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand. \nIt would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to \"induce\" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a \"Neural Programmer,\" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.\nWhile machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:\nHow long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python? \nAs a concrete challenge, we'll ask that in 2 of 5 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the first two sections of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. To avoid making this mostly about language parsing, the plaintext specification can be \"translated\" by a human operator into a plaintext description of lesser length prior to input into the ML system, so that the system functions something like a very high-level programming language. (This still leaves a major challenge of a system that turns the specification into a task for which the neural network can be trained.) \nThe existence of such a system will be determined by actual demonstration, OR by agreement by two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:53.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 265,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:23:03Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. \nA key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain \"[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)\", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that \"Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.\"\nAnother [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).\nThese could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.\nIn what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? \nFor specifics, we'll define \"fully autonomous\" using the NHTSA \"level 4\" designation:\nThe vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.\nWe'll also specify that \"cars\" really means \"cars,\" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:33:59.311Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 361,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-01-22T17:36:35Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:29:30Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:05.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 39,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:34:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:34:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are \"combination\" trucks such as tractor-trailers.\nAll of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:\nWhen will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? \nFor positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the \"passenger seat\" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:21.034Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 348,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-01-02T04:32:27Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where &gt;=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf &gt;50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with &gt;50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to &gt;December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:26.247Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:31.456Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 131,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-26T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-09-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale.\nUntil relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred.\nBy contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks.\nThere are two complementary ways of estimating the chances of catastrophe. What we could call the direct way is to analyze the various specific failure-modes, assign them probabilities, which is what--at least partially-- the questions in the Ragnarök series are designed to do.\nSecondly, there is the indirect way. [As Nick Bostrom has argued](https://nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html), there are theoretical constraints that can be brought to bear on the issue, based on some general features of the world in which we live. There is only small number of these, but they are important because they do not rely on making a lot of guesses about the details of future technological and social developments. For example, the so-called [Doomsday argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_argument), which purports to show that we have systematically underestimated the probability that humankind will go extinct relatively soon.\nMoreover, the [Fermi Paradox](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox) tells us that it is not the case that life evolves on a significant fraction of Earth-like planets and proceeds to develop advanced technology. Hence, there must be (at least) one Great Filter – an evolutionary step that is extremely improbable – somewhere on the line between Earth-like planet and colonizing-in-detectable-ways civilization. If the [Great Filter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter) isn’t in our past, we must fear it in our (near) future.\nBy 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years or less?\nThe question resolves positively the human population (on Earth, and possibly elsewhere) decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:37.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 279,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. \n[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. \nWhat will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nCredible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.\nPBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nThe question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:42.761Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 130,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T01:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWill the US see mass price controls in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the US federal government institutes a measure described by at least three major US newspapers as \"price controls\", \"price ceilings\", \"price maxima\", or the singular of any of these phrases, or a phrase determined by Metaculus administrators to be equivalent to any of those three, and such measure applies to at least half of products and services in the US economy weighted by GDP, where this determination is also to be made by Metaculus administrators.\nFor the purpose of this question, the following is an exhaustive list of major US newspapers:\n---[USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/) \n---[The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/) \n---[The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) \n---The [Los Angeles Times](https://www.latimes.com/) \n---[The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) \n---The [Chicago Tribune](https://www.chicagotribune.com/) \n---[The Boston Tribune](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) \nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:48.172Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 219,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Tucker Carlson is per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tucker_Carlson):\nTucker Swanson McNear Carlson[2] (born May 16, 1969)[3] is an American television presenter, political commentator, author, and columnist who has hosted the nightly political talk show Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News since 2016.\nCarlson became a print journalist in the 1990s, writing for the magazine The Weekly Standard. He was a CNN commentator from 2000 to 2005, and co-host of the network's prime-time news debate program Crossfire from 2001 to 2005. He would go on to host the nightly program Tucker on MSNBC from 2005 to 2008. He has been a political analyst for Fox News since 2009, appearing as guest or guest host on various programs before the launch of his current show. In 2010, Carlson co-founded and served as the initial editor-in-chief of the right-wing news and opinion website The Daily Caller, until selling his ownership stake and leaving the site in 2020.[4]\nOriginally a proponent of libertarian economic policy and a supporter of Ron Paul, Carlson would come to criticize the ideology as being \"controlled by the banks\" and became an active adherer to protectionism.[2][5] He has also espoused anti-interventionalist views, renouncing his initial support of the Iraq War the year after it was declared.[2][6] A vocal opponent of progressivism, he's been called a nationalist by observers.[7] An advocate of U.S. president Donald Trump, he has been described as \"perhaps the highest-profile proponent of 'Trumpism' and willing to criticize Trump if he strayed from it.\"[8]\nCarlson has written two books: a memoir titled Politicians, Partisans and Parasites: My Adventures in Cable News (2003); and Ship of Fools: How a Selfish Ruling Class is Bringing America to the Brink of Revolution (2018). \nThere is some speculation that he might run in 2024: Politico has [Tucker Carlson 2024? The GOP is buzzing](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/02/tucker-carlson-2024-republicans-348334):\nTucker Carlson’s audience is booming — and so is chatter that the popular Fox News host will parlay his TV perch into a run for president in 2024.\nRepublican strategists, conservative commentators, and former Trump campaign and administration officials are buzzing about Carlson as the next-generation leader of Donald Trump’s movement — with many believing he would be an immediate frontrunner in a Republican primary.\n“He’s a talented communicator with a massive platform. I think if he runs he’d be formidable,” said Luke Thompson, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s super PAC in 2016. \nOthers:\n---Guardian: ['His hatred is infectious': Tucker Carlson, Trump's heir apparent and 2024 candidate?](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/jul/12/tucker-carlson-trump-fox-news-republicans) \n---Daily Mail: [Tucker Carlson for president? Former Trump campaign and GOP officials believe the Fox News host could lead a successful 2024 presidential campaign after his show becomes the highest-rated program in Cable News](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8485933/Former-Trump-campaign-officials-believe-Tucker-Carlson-win-2024-election.html) \nWill Tucker Carlson win the Republican Presidential nomination in 2024?\nThis resolves positive if Carlson is nominated by the Republican party to be the official candidate for the presidency by the end of 2024.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:34:53.551Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 217,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:05.689Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1635,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The most prominent attempts have probably been the Aum Shirinkyo cult, which made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. \nThe failure of Aum Shirinkyo suggests that creating a large-scale attack is quite difficult even with significant resources and the participation of trained scientists. On the other hand, widespread availability of information, better equipment, and new techniques developed over the past 20 years may make it easier.\nHere we focus on the possibility of a very large-scale attack, such as could be caused by release of a highly transmissible pathogen such as influenza, smallpox, etc.\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 500K total worldwide cases or 100K worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:16.214Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 162,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2017-12-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/02/03/student-loan-debt-statistics/?sh=2341eaad281f),\nThere are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.\nFrom [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-may-come-with-tax-bomb-heres-what-you-should-know.html),\nStudent loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.\nBiden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.\nSens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.\nThe US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public Service Loan Forgiveness](https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service) program. The [most recent data](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data) shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.\nHow many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application\" and \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:21.658Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-20T20:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select \"ML / Data Science\" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.\nWhat will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?\nIf by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:27.700Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-03T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:38.663Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 189,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:44.233Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 62,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2066-12-30T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:50.778Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 43,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:37:57Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-31T22:33:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-06-30T21:33:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:35:56.266Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 109,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
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},
{
"title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),\nHealth at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.\nAdvocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),\nAs part of a social movement called Health at Every Size (HAES), dietitians and doctors are moving away from assessing people’s health according to their weight. The HAES philosophy is based on the idea that people of all sizes deserve respect and good health, and that size does not determine health.\nResearch shows that there are a high percentage of people in the \"overweight\" or even \"obese\" category according to Body Mass Index (BMI) that are metabolically healthy. At the same time, there are a significant percentage of \"normal\" weight people who are unhealthy, with diseases like diabetes, hypertension or high cholesterol. In addition, people in the overweight category actually live the longest. Maybe BMI has gotten it wrong all these years?\nOther researchers, however, are not convinced. From [Fontana et al.](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4032609/),\nThe validity of [the 2013 meta-analysis] has been challenged due to several major methodological problems (Tobias &amp; Hu, 2013). First, many high-quality prospective studies and consortia (including &gt;6 million participants) were excluded from the meta-analyses because they did not use standard BMI categories (i.e., 18.5–24.9 for normal weight, 25–29.9 for overweight, and ≥30 for obesity). These large studies generally benefited from sufficient statistical power to allow for the analysis of finer BMI categories, and therefore had no reason to use such broad categories. In most of these omitted studies, the BMI range associated with the lowest mortality was around 22.5–25, particularly after accounting for smoking status and reverse causation due to prevalent diseases (Tobias &amp; Hu, 2013). Second, the meta-analysis included numerous studies conducted among elderly or sick populations as well as current and past smokers. In particular, the broad reference group (BMI 18.5–24.9) contains not only individuals who are lean and active, but also heavy smokers, the frail and elderly, and those who are ill with previous weight loss or diminished weight gain due to existing diseases. Because the overweight and obese groups were compared with this heterogeneous group, the associations with the higher-BMI groups were seriously underestimated, creating an artifact of reduced mortality among the overweight and moderately obese groups (Willett et al., 2013).\nNonetheless, Fontana et al. state,\nthe prevention of weight gain is more important than weight loss because once an individual becomes obese, it is very difficult to achieve long-term weight loss and maintenance.\nreflecting partial agreement with [policy suggestions given by advocates of HAES](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3935663/).\nWill the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?\nThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is said to have adopted a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035 if CDC documents or credible media indicate that the organization as a whole (rather than eg. one rogue worker) has performed any of the following before January 1st 2035,\n--- \nUsed the words \"Health at Every Size\" in a favorable context in their main overweight/obesity portal, which is currently located at [https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/](https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/)\n--- \nDiscontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.\n--- \nMade the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:01.772Z",
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"numforecasts": 41,
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"publish_time": "2020-09-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:08.077Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 379,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global emissions growth is expected to persist, driven by growth in global population and economic activities. Global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 in baseline scenarios—those without additional mitigation—[range from 3.7°C to 4.8°C above the average for 1850–1900 for a median climate response](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf). \nGiven these estimates of the baseline scenarios of unmitigated emissions, [studies exploring particular effort-sharing mitigation frameworks](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf), have estimated substantial global financial flows associated with mitigation in scenarios to limit warming during the 21st century to less than 2°C. But [there is also a non-negligible chance](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases much higher than the median estimated outcome. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a “fat” right tail, meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases.\nIn particular, [it has been argued that](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote4_cwn3csz) there is a decent chance that the unmitigated emissions might result in a &gt;6.4ºC change in global mean surface temperature. Then, even with the systems to reduce temperatures by 2.8ºC (as might be required in baseline scenarios to achieve the 2ºC target), mean global temperature might be still be at least as high as 3.6ºC, despite substantial mitigation efforts.\nThe estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely highly nonlinear: marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to the IPCC's 2014 report,](https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) \nThe risks associated with temperatures at or above 4°C include severe and widespread impacts on unique and threatened systems, substantial species extinction, large risks to global and regional food security, consequential constraints on common human activities, increased likelihood of triggering tipping points (critical thresholds) and limited potential for adaptation in some cases.\nWill there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 3.6˚C greater than the average global temperature relative to the period 1861–1880?\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 3.4˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:13.919Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 144,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2094-01-01T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-07-16T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will we have micropayments?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&amp;utm_brand=wired&amp;utm_campaign=wired&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_social-type=owned&amp;utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:31.520Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:38.055Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 170,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) &amp; [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:43.541Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 158,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:48.984Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-01T19:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T19:04:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/).\nThe [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660.\nGlobally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)).\n[A 2020 YouGov poll](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/02/18/8b405/1) of British adults found that 62% were in favour of retaining the monarchy, with 22% opposed.\nWill any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:36:54.202Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:00.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 99,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Trinity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)) was the first nuclear weapon test. The test was conducted above ground on July 16, 1945 on what is now known as the White Sands Missile Range. Since Trinity, over 2,000 nuclear tests have been [conducted](https://www.fastcompany.com/3049706/visualized-every-haunting-nuclear-bomb-detonation-since-1945) world wide. \nThe US has conducted over 1,000 nuclear tests. The final test to be conducted by the US, code-name [Divder](https://www.ctbto.org/specials/testing-times/23-september-1992-last-us-nuclear-test), took place on September 23, 1992. Soon after, Gearge H. W. Bush [declared a moratorium](https://www.thereaganvision.org/u-s-nuclear-weapons-testing-moratorium/) on nuclear weapons testing. In 1996, the US signed the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty](https://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/comprehensive-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-ctbt/) which bans any type of nuclear explosion. To date, the treaty has not been ratified by the appropriate countries (including the US) and has [not yet entered into force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Nuclear-Test-Ban_Treaty).\nThe decision to end nuclear weapons testing has not been recommended by everyone. One of the [core missions](https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/missions/maintaining-stockpile) of the National Nuclear Security Administration is to \"ensure the United States maintains a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear stockpile through the application of unparalleled science, technology, engineering, and manufacturing.\" This is largely accomplished through [super computers](https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/testing-nuclear-weapons-is-more-important-than-ever). However, some [argue](https://www.heritage.org/arms-control/report/keeping-nuclear-testing-the-table-national-security-imperative) that weapons tests are still needed to accomplish this mission.\nMore recently, there have been [reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-administration-considered-a-nuclear-bomb-test-washington-post-2020-5) that the Trump administration has considered performing a nuclear test explosion in response to potential low-yield tests from Russia and China.\n\nWill the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?\n=========================================================\n\nThis question will resolve positively to verification of a nuclear explosion by the CTBTO, the UN, or if an official government statement from the US is issued confirming the test. The question will resolve as ambiguous if two or more other countries accuse the US of performing a nuclear test explosion but there is no verification. Otherwise, this question will resolve negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:06.142Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 79,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-02T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T13:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T13:02:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:11.812Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 137,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As EV technology becomes more widely adopted, and as dates are set for [the prohibition of sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles](https://www.thedrive.com/news/36687/california-bans-the-sale-of-new-gas-and-diesel-cars-by-2035#:~:text=Gavin%20Newsom%20just%20signed%20a,out%20the%20internal%20combustion%20engine.) in some places, the question arises: will legacy automakers be nimble enough to adapt to the market landscape?\nAutomakers can expect to incur R&amp;D costs associated with battery technology, in addition to the necessary overhaul of current factories. For example, [Volkswagen is spending billions](https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-making-huge-bet-on-electric-vehicles-in-next-decade-2019-11?r=US&amp;IR=T#:~:text=By%202023%2C%20Volkswagen%20says%20it,profits%20from%202015%20through%202018.) in their efforts to expand their EV offerings, and [Mercedes is also mapping out a future centrally focused on EV's](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-06/mercedes-maps-out-push-to-lift-profits-during-electric-car-shift).\nFor some additional context, here is the IEA [Historical EV Market Share and Outlook](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nThis question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?\nIf one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nIf the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:23.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 107,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:29.851Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar&lt;sup&gt;1&lt;/sup&gt; technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:41.444Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 64,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.\nWhen will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?\n---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:\n------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. \n------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. \n------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. \n------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. \n------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. \n------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. \n------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. \n------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. \n---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. \n---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. \n---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR headsets\" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. \n---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:48.198Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 91,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-20T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:37:55.230Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 484,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\nThis question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:\n--- \nDeliberate nuclear attack.\n--- \nAccidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n--- \nAccidental detonation of a weapon.\n--- \nNuclear terrorism.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do not trigger negative resolution.\nSee our previous question [Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/179/will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-2020/) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:00.472Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 242,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:06.461Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 216,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&amp;qid=1550223728&amp;s=gateway&amp;sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.\nQuestion: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?\nResolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:11.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 146,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-21T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&amp;state$time$value=2006&amp;delay:121.71612903225821;&amp;entities$;&amp;marker$select@;&amp;opacitySelectDim:0.3&amp;axis_x$use=indicator&amp;which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&amp;scaleType=log&amp;zoomedMin=282&amp;zoomedMax=119849&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;axis_y$use=indicator&amp;which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&amp;scaleType=linear&amp;zoomedMin=0&amp;zoomedMax=93&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;size$use=indicator&amp;which=population_total&amp;extent@:0.022083333333333333&amp;:0.4083333333333333;&amp;domainMin:null&amp;domainMax:null;&amp;color$use=property&amp;which=world_6region;;;&amp;ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:18.076Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 201,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 419.13 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to an average of 428.79 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWhat will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020 to 2021 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the arithmetic mean of the \"annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration data from the Mauna Loa monitoring station\" in 2020 and 2021, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\nIf you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:25.776Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 236,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:31.368Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 74,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.\nEarlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.\nThis [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: \nIt is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. \nFor more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.\nWhen, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:43.155Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-07-06T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. \nAs such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?\nWhen will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?\nThis question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:48.554Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, \"one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.\"\nRegrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.\nIt is asked:Will a living human set their foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC?\nResolution is by credible media report. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.\nClosing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:53.840Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 426,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-12-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-07-21T01:56:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:38:59.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 104,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.\nThe [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.\nAs of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).\nThis question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?\nFor the purposes of this question:\n--- \nPublished studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.\n--- \nWhole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.\n--- \nAfrican American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as \"African\" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.\n--- \nThe question will resolve as &gt;2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:05.529Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:12.211Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 219,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.\nThis question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nResolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:17.671Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 301,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.\nSeparately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [\"bad debt is not written down\"](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.\nNote that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.\nThere was also that moment back in 2010 when [Li Keqiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang) reportedly [stated explicitly](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-wikileaks/chinas-gdp-is-man-made-unreliable-top-leader-idUSTRE6B527D20101206) that \"China’s GDP figures are man-made and therefore unreliable\". Li Keqiang has since become the 7th Premier of the People's Republic of China and currently still in office as of this writing.\nThus, it is asked: will real (inflation-adjusted) Chinese GDP numbers be revised down by more than 5%, to undo the prior exaggeration?\nFor resolution, there are a couple of different scenarios to consider:\n1-- \nAlready-reported official figures in recent years being revised down by 5% or lower by the Chinese government. For example: 2018's end-of-year figure of $13.4 trillion USD having a newly-reported figure of $12.73 trillion USD or less. The reduction would naturally also apply to future real GDP figures (such as for 2019), but I think for the purposes of this question we will permit future exaggerations to their real GDP growth rate; a one-time reduction counts as positive resolution.\n2-- \nAlternatively, if the Chinese government does not explicitly revise its past data for continuity and simply posts the (hopefully more accurate) new figure for 2019 under a separate method, then we would consider it positive resolution IF for instance the figure for 2019 real GDP failed to grow beyond 2018's (formerly-claimed) figure of $13.4 trillion USD. This is roughly similar to a revision to 2018 of 5% or more, as the official real GDP growth target for 2019 is 6% to 6.5%. In order to distinguish this event from a recession, we will look to official statements that would presumably be included to clarify the drop in real GDP. If for some weird reason this kind of official statement is not included, then we could use other indications to confirm if it's a recession (such as recessions happening elsewhere, or the [Purchasing Manager's Index](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/Page.mvc/PressReleases)). There will likely be some sort of statement made about the revision if there is one so I don't think this will be ambiguous, but distinguishing the revision from a recession given no official statement is a weakly defined part of the question, so feel free to scrutinize.\nFor future inflation adjustments, we will be using 2018 as the price level base year.\nThis resolves negatively if neither 1 nor 2 happen before January 1st, 2023. Resolves positively if either of those two are deemed to have occurred. Resolution will be based on media reports by reputable financial institutions, by a report from the Chinese government, or by this [Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_China#China_NBS_data).\nIn order to immortalize the already-reported figures with which to make comparisons to future reported figures, I have download data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CN) and preserved the currently official figures in [this spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRPU368_gQMl5x4oHTTbmpPQPh5248AmXTv9JjuTai4/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:22.963Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 65,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-04-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, our planet would become a more precarious place, but it will likely remain mostly habitable.\nHowever, [according to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.\nOne explanation is that increases in global mean temperatures might have substantial self-reinforcing feedbacks that could place us on a \"Hothouse Earth\" pathway. These [feedback processes include](http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf) permafrost thawing, decomposition of ocean methane hydrates, increased marine bacterial respiration, and loss of polar ice sheets accompanied by a rise in sea levels and potential amplification of temperature rise through changes in ocean circulation.\n[It has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming.\nIn an earlier question in the Ragnarök question series, I asked [If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/), where a global catastrophe was defined as a 10% or more reduction in human population in 5 years or less.\nIf a global climate catastrophe occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\n--- \nThe question resolves ambiguous if a global climate catastrophe that reduces the human population by at least 10% does not occur. \n--- \nIt resolves ambiguous if this catastrophe is primarily due the effects on the climate system of a nuclear war.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population. It does also not matter how the Earth's population declines, this might be due to mass fatalities, or mass immigration to a different planet, as long as this decline is highly unlikely on a counterfactual Earth in which the climate disaster did not occur.\n--- \nIt resolves positive if the 95% decline in population is primarily due the effects on the climate system of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks.\n--- \nThe question resolves negative if a global climate catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population does not fall 95% or more relative to the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:29.112Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 174,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-11-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-06-23T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The United Nations Charter of 1945 grants five sovereign states a permanent seat on the UN Security Council: the People's Republic of China (formerly the Republic of China), the French Republic, the Russian Federation (formerly the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. While the 'power of veto' is not mentioned by name in the UN Charter, Article 27 grants [each of the five permanent member states the ability to veto any 'substantive' resolution](https://legal.un.org/repertory/art27.shtml).\nSince the first veto in 1946, the use of the veto power has reflected shifting political balances. Early in the history of the UN, the majority of vetoes were cast by the Soviet Union. From 1970 to 1991, the US cast 56% of the vetoes. In recent years, this balance has once again shifted: China has not cast a lone veto vote since 1999, and has frequently joined Russia in vetoes since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Neither France nor the UK has used their veto power since 1989.\nWill three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?\nThis question resolves according to the total number of vetoed resolutions recorded on the [research.un.org website](https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick/meetings/) on 1 January 2022.\nThis question concerns the number of unique resolutions vetoed, not the number of veto votes cast. For example, the draft resolution '[S/2019/961](https://undocs.org/en/S/2019/961)' was vetoed by [both Russia and China](https://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8697), but would contribute only one to the 2019 tally.\nIn the event that the official UN website is not active at the time of resolution, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:34.806Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-12-31T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.\nThese folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?\nIn order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:\n---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... \n---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. \nWhen will this first happen?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:40.042Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-10-31T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-11-07T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as &gt;01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:45.511Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 102,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:50.847Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 120,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:39:56.392Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 136,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:02.513Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 82,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-07T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "3000-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:08.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-03T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-08-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&amp;IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&amp;guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&amp;guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:20.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 464,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Even though the [Google Lunar X Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lunar_X_Prize) ended without a winner, many of the competitors continue in their attempts to reach the moon. One of them is [SpaceIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceIL#Status), a nonprofit organization in Israel. They plan to launch on a Falcon 9 in December, as a secondary payload, and reach the Moon in February 2019.\nAccording to [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-moon-probe-lunar-landing-2018-8):\nSpaceIL, a nonprofit organization founded by Israeli billionaire Morris Kahn, is on track to pull off the first commercial lunar landing early next year. This would make Israel the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the moon; only the US, Russia, and China have landed robots there. (Japan, India, and Europe have crashed probes into the lunar surface, though.) \nA close competitor is India's Chandrayaan-2, the subject of another Metaculus [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/975/will-indias-chandrayaan-2-mission-to-the-moon-blast-off-before-2018-is-out/). \nWill Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon?\nResolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon; the spacecraft must be intact after landing, but no conditions are placed on its operation.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:25.864Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 137,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-12-01T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-05-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:31.221Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 55,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&amp;terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;terms-8-operator=OR&amp;terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&amp;terms-8-field=all&amp;terms-9-operator=OR&amp;terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&amp;terms-9-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:36.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 257,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:42.268Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 160,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as &gt;2036-12-17.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:47.657Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-12-17T17:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;terms-1-operator=OR&amp;terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&amp;terms-1-field=all&amp;terms-2-operator=OR&amp;terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&amp;terms-2-field=all&amp;terms-3-operator=OR&amp;terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&amp;terms-3-field=all&amp;terms-4-operator=OR&amp;terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&amp;terms-4-field=all&amp;terms-5-operator=OR&amp;terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&amp;terms-5-field=all&amp;terms-6-operator=OR&amp;terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&amp;terms-6-field=all&amp;terms-7-operator=OR&amp;terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&amp;terms-7-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:53.222Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 93,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:40:58.570Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 168,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.\nThe Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.\nBut they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it. \nESA wants to build a [moon village](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/Ministerial_Council_2016/Moon_Village), while [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/deep-space-gateway-to-open-opportunities-for-distant-destinations) (and [Elon Musk](https://www.spacex.com/mars)) aim for Mars. These are certainly lofty goals, but:\nWill humans have sustainable settlements off Earth by 2100?\nWill resolve positive if there are settlements off-Earth with &gt; 2000 5+ year residents that can reasonable assumed to be [self-sufficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-sustainability) in production of energy and foodstuffs.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:05.725Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 565,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-16T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. \nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; but [the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality.](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631) \nNeedless to say, if these more ambitious developments are actually possible, this technology would enable a radically different future to emerge. Enhancing human cognition may be the most important thing we could ever possibly do.\nElon Musk: [\"From a long-term existential standpoint... the purpose of Neuralink is to create a high-bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=34) (See 00:35 in the video.)\n[\"It will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition... anyone who wants.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=175) (See 02:55 in the video.)\n[\"You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could probably just upload into a new unit. Literally.\"](https://youtu.be/x5pgAM26wuM?t=353) (See 05:55 in the video.)\n[You can watch the company's July 2019 presentation here,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jndwB7kq0qM) and read their paper [An integrated brain-machine interface platform with thousands of channels here.](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703801v1)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be implanted into the brain of a living human? \nYou can find information on [the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices here.](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices)\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on whether regulatory approval will be obtained before 1 January 2022.\nNote that any such regulatory approval that allows the implantation of any qualifying device in the brain of a living human will trigger a positive resolution, including (but not limited to) the grant of an Investigational Device Exemption or a Humanitarian Device Exemption. In particular, note that this question does not require full regulatory approval to market and sell any device to the public in order for a positive resolution. \nResolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished before 2022, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:11.154Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 206,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-07-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-05-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:16.697Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 529,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7208/jeff-bezos-to-shake-up-longevity-by-september/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "During a recent video AMA called [Longevity Meets Blockchain - AMA with Aubrey de Grey and Vitalik Buterin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9TSJK1widA&amp;t=2006s), Aubrey de Grey had stated,\nA month or so from now, there's stuff I can't talk about, that is happening that will be really seismic in this field. Somebody whose name we all know, and whose name I cannot mention, but who has been talking to me and has been interested in this for more than 15 years is finally going to be doing something.\nSome people on Reddit [speculated](https://www.reddit.com/r/longevity/comments/nbmkf0/aubrey_just_said_something_that_got_me/) that Aubrey de Grey was referring to Jeff Bezos. One commenter [stated](https://www.reddit.com/r/longevity/comments/nbmkf0/aubrey_just_said_something_that_got_me/gy09u6d/?utm_source=reddit&amp;utm_medium=web2x&amp;context=3),\nAubrey met Bezos at Ted back in 2006 (15 years ago), and Aubrey did mention that this person has known about Aubrey for 15 years. Bezos just \"retired\" recently as well.\nJeff Bezos has been interested in longevity before. In 2018, CNBC [reported](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/jeff-bezos-backs-silicon-valley-scientist-working-on-a-cure-for-aging.html) that Jeff Bezos was among the investors who backed Unity Biotechnologies. It's also true that Jeff Bezos [announced his retirement](https://www.zmescience.com/other/pieces/why-jeff-bezos-retirement-from-amazon-means-big-things-for-space/) from Amazon on February 2nd of this year.\nWill Jeff Bezos undertake a \"seismic\" development in longevity before September 1st 2021?\nJeff Bezos is said to have undertaken a \"seismic\" development in longevity if ANY of the following occur before September 1st 2021, as determined by reliable media,\n--- \nJeff Bezos donates at least $50 million to the SENS Research Foundation or the Methuselah Foundation.\n--- \nJeff Bezos donates at least $50 million to another organization considered to be close ally of The SENS Research Foundation, in the sense that the organization's website indicates a mission to either (1) find a way to halt, delay, reverse or cure aging, (2) determine the causes of aging. If at least 2 moderators agree that the organization is not a close ally of the The SENS Research Foundation, then it isn't, for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nJeff Bezos announces that he is starting a biotechnology company focused on aging, and in particular, a biotechnology company that meets the conditions above for a \"close ally of The SENS Research Foundation\", and pledges at least $50 million to the company.\n--- \nJeff Bezos invests at least $50 million into a biotechnology company that meets the conditions above for a \"close ally of The SENS Research Foundation.\"\nIf the amount donated, pledged, or invested is unknown at the time of announcement, Metaculus will wait until the question can resolve. If Bezos donates, pledges or invests in multiple organizations, the sum is combined for qualifying organizations, and organizations given money after May 15th 2021.\nWhile amounts less than $50 million are plausible, the author of this question does not consider them to be \"seismic.\" \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:22.359Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-05-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:27.903Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 44,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Long-term supplementation of NAD+ boosters such as Nicotinamide Riboside and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide have been demonstrated to increase lifespan in animal models.\nHuman clinical trials are ongoing, with published papers demonstrating:\n---Safety and increase in NAD+ levels. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/),[2](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29211728/)) \n---Insulin sensitivity unchanged. ([1](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29992272/)) \n---Cardiac biomarkers seem to improve. ([3](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5876407/)) \nWill a systematic review of human trials conclude by 2030 that NAD+ boosting is effective in increasing human lifespan by &gt;5%?\nThis question will resolve positive if at any point until 2030 a systematic review of clinical trials of NAD+ boosting will explicitly mention a lifespan improvement of at least 5% in humans. (results in animal models or lifespan estimation based on results in treatment of diseases are not enough for positive resolution)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:33.365Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-01T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Company valuations can take off very quickly: Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. When Apple first hit a capitalisation of $2tr, it was worth less than $1tr 365 days prior, resolving [the previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/) positively.\nWill the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.\nCurrent quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&amp;ob=pv&amp;od=desc) of the current quarter.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5700000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:40.755Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 108,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-06-16T17:17:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-06-16T17:17:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. \nFor the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.\nNot included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.\nHow many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?\nIn the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:41:46.877Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 118,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-12-31T23:49:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:03.762Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 125,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"&gt; Dec 24, 2035\".\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:10.734Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 110,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7017/us-troops-in-afghanistan-a-last-detail/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Related question by @Fee, with many background facts: [Troops in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/)\nIn the late 20th century, the United States (acting through Zia al-Haq of Pakistan) provided assistance to a group of Afghanis known then as mujahedeen, who were trying to evict a Soviet occupation force. [Some non-Afghanis gravitated to Afghanistan to help the mujahedeen. To coordinate these outsiders, a new organization was formed; its name was Al Qaeda. One of the outsiders, a Saudi engineer named Usama bin Laden (b. 1957), became the network's leader; he &amp; al Qaeda were welcomed to establish a base of operations in Afghanistan after the Soviets left.](https://www.britannica.com/event/Afghanistan-War)\nOn September 11, 2001, in an event commonly referred to as 9/11, four terrorist cells totalling 19 men (most of them Saudi) executed a mission for which they had been trained by al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The mission caused significant loss of life in Arlington County, Virginia, NY County, New York, and [Somerset County, Pennsylvania](https://www.nps.gov/flni/learn/news/presskit.htm), as well as [large-scale property damage](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/) in those locales. Soon after that, on [ October 7, 2001, the United States began overt military operations in Afghanistan](https://apnews.com/article/7011b5086a21f7f57c3cb218947742b2).\n[Those operations expanded to other Asian nations during a 19-year military presence](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56744265). On May 2, 2011, the U.S. Navy's \"Seal Team Six\" carried out a secret mission in Pakistan during which they killed Usama bin Laden.\n[U.S. forces remained in Afghanistan.](https://militarybases.com/overseas/afghanistan/). Following various [\"troop drawdowns\"](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56744265), the U.S. agreed to leave that country before the 10th anniversary of bin Laden's death; but [President Biden](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/04/14/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-way-forward-in-afghanistan/) decided that some troops [would remain there until the 20th anniversary of the al Qaeda attacks on civilians in the eastern U.S.](https://www.newsday.com/long-island/columnists/dan-janison/afghanistan-biden-trump-troops-1.50213807).\n[Such timetables are sometimes delayed by factors foreseeable &amp; unforeseeable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_U.S._troops_from_Iraq_(2007%E2%80%932011)). This question asks:\nWill U.S. military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?\nStatements issued by [civilian leaders of the U.S. military](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/), or by any member of [the Joint Chiefs of Staff](https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/), will be deemed credible unless contradicted by very persuasive statements from any [source familiar with the territory](https://dppa.un.org/en/mission/unama).\nResolution of this question will not be affected by the presence in Afghanistan (at any time) of Red Cross, \"blue hats\", or any [Private military contractors](https://www.your-poc.com/what-are-civilian-contractors-and-what-do-they-perform-overseas/) or \"PMCs\". Similarly, troops guarding the US diplomatic presence and unreported special forces missions will not be counted.\n2021-10-7 refers to October 7, 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:16.384Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 183,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-08-11T12:46:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-08T03:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.\nCurrently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. \nHowever, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. \nTo take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.\nInterestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).\nWhen will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).\nPrices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:21.670Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 141,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T22:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:27.403Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.\n[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).\nOn what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain &gt;=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?\n1-- \nThe reported &gt;=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.\n2-- \nIf the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as &gt; Sep 15, 2025.\n3-- \nThe \"mining pool\" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.\n4-- \nNote that in hash rate distribution charts, \"Unknown\" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from \"Unknown\" miners ever attained &gt;=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up &gt;=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.\n5-- \nOne possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with &gt;50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with &gt;50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:32.836Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 100,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-09-15T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-09-15T04:00:00Z"
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"stars": 3
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"title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:39.780Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 83,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z"
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"stars": 3
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{
"title": "What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:45.240Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
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"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "When will a universal flu vaccine be available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.\nFor at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.\nWhen will a universal flu vaccine be available?\n---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. \n---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.\n------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. \n------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). \n---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. \n---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. \n---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:50.757Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 84,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-13T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-01-11T03:46:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2090-01-11T03:46:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.\nMuch more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.\nRecently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.\nThe body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).\nWhen will will a human head transplant operation be performed\nResolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:42:56.148Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-09-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-09-09T22:01:59.305000Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-09T19:52:20.028000Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:01.461Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 77,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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{
"title": "What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7035/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Cultivated meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat) is animal meat that is produced by cultivating animal cells directly. Cultivated meat is made of the same cell types arranged in the same or similar structure as animal tissues, thus replicating the sensory and nutritional profiles of conventional meat. This production method eliminates the need to raise and farm animals for food. \nBy the end of 2019, 55 announced early-stage companies around the world were focused on producing cultivated meat and seafood or serving these producers along the value chain, according to the Good Food Institute's [2019 State of the Industry Report](https://gfi.org/resource/cultivated-meat-eggs-and-dairy-state-of-the-industry-report/). \nSo far, cultivated meat production facilities have not seen commercial scale. That said, plans are under way:\n--- \nIn August 2019, BlueNalu [released a five-stage commercialization strategy](https://www.bluenalu.com/pr-82219) that calls for moving the company from pilot-scale research and development to facilities with 150,000 square feet of food production space and the capacity to make 18 million pounds (~8,000 metric tons) of finished cultivated seafood products per year\n--- \nIn September 2020 Mosa Meat's head of operations [announced](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2020/09/25/How-will-Mosa-Meat-spend-its-latest-55m-injection) that they will be scaling all the way up to a 200L bioreactor capable of producing 100kg of cultured burgers for each 200L production line.\nWhat will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the highest reported production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single physical facility that produces cultivated meat products, according to credible reports. \nThe following types of evidence would decide the question:\n--- \nA company publication (such as a press release) or a credible media report which reports the estimated maximum amount in metric tons that a single company produced within a 365 day time period. \n--- \nStatements by other credible sources (such as independent credible outside analysts, governments, inter-governmental agencies) further qualify\nResolution requires the cultivated meat production facility to be operational, but it need not run at maximum production capacity. For a product to be deemed a \"cultivated meat product\", it must contain at least 20% cultivated meat by weight (where cultivated meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body).\nThe production process may involve any medium, such as scaffolding techniques, cultivators or bioreactors. It may be further co-owned or co-operated by multiple organizations.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:06.855Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-22T15:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-04-21T19:55:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:55:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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{
"title": "Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7128/vocs-to-make-up-50-of-virginia-sequences/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "There are currently numerous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the U.S. that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination.\nMultiple [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2100362) that have [higher transmissibility](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055), cause [more severe disease](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579), or [that can evade immunity to some extent](https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6534/1103) have been detected and [tracked](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) since late 2020. \nOf particular concern to public health authorities in Virginia are SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating that are thought to be able to partially evade immunity induced by prior infection and/or vaccination. \nThe U.S. CDC currently defines [three classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html). For our purposes, variants of concern and variants of high consequence are of particular interest:\n---Variant of concern (VOC): “variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are five VOCs: B.1.1.7, P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. \n---Variant of high consequence (VOHC): “variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants.” As of the most recent CDC update on 27 April, there are no VOHCs. \nOf the five variants categorized under these categories (all five are VOCs), as of 27 April 2021 there are four that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" (indicating they are able to partially evade immunity induced by infection and vaccination): P.1, B.1.351, B.1.427, and B.1.429. As of 27 April 2021, 8.8% of total available sequences in Virginia are one of these four VOCs: 2.3% B.1.351, 6.0% B.1.427/B.1.429, 0.5% P.1.\nWill variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?\nThis question will resolve on the basis of the most recent update of the \"Unweighted Proportions of Variants of Concern and Other Lineages by State or Jurisdiction\" table on the U.S. CDC's [\"Variant Proportions\"](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fvariant-surveillance%2Fgenomic-surveillance-dashboard.html#variant-proportions) page. The percentages of VOCs that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera\" will be added up for the two-week period ending 11 September 2021. \nIf between now and 11 September there are additional variants classified as variants of concern that cause \"reduced neutralization by convalescent and post-vaccination sera,\" these will count toward the total percent figure. Likewise, if any of the four variants of concern that are currently classified as causing partial immune escape are removed from being classified as such, they will no longer count toward the total percent figure.\n",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:12.113Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-29T10:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-29T16:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-10-01T16:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:18.319Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-24T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:23.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 60,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:30.446Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:35.701Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.\nThere are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?\nThe [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:\nIn 2025 will overall us meat production be lower than in 2020? \nQuestion will resolve positively if the NASS numbers for total livestock meat production in pounds are smaller for 2025 than for 2020.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:40.933Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 207,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-07-22T19:47:11Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:47.044Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 73,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution. \nAs of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.\nWill Cuba will still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/)?\nThis question resolves positive if the 2023 [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigns an index value below 50, indicating \"repressed economic activity\". Currently, Cuba [has an index value of 31.9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom), meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.\nEdit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the [Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/) assigned to Cuba in 2023.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:43:59.493Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 376,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-12T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-11-25T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing &gt;50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:05.108Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 129,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:11.567Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 240,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not \"steak or cream pies or hot fudge\", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.\nIn the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates. \nThe idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:\n\"It is generally acknowledged in the scientific community that a ketogenic diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people when adopted for a period of several years, at a level comparable to (say) the Mediterranean diet as of 2020.\"\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of \"self-resolving\" ones. Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is &gt; 95% or &lt; 5%, the question resolves positively or negatively, respectively.\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\nedited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from \"typical person\" to \"some identified and significant population of people.\"\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:17.398Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&amp;P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:23.705Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 69,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:29.228Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-07-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [\"luminous red nova\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.\nGreg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)\nGiven that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.\nRight ascension is the celestial equivalent of longitude, but without knowing the season in advance (and the error bars on the current prediction are much too large for that) we can't tell if the sun will be too close to the object, drowning it in daylight to the naked eye.\nIf that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be telescopes able to make observations, maybe including both Hubble and James Webb.\nSo, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227? \nResolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:34.610Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-01-18T02:28:09Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)\nOn January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.\nIf Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?\nResolution:\n---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) \n---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. \n---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. \nThe report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).\nOther possible world:\n---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:39.934Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 59,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-11-02T19:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:45.206Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The state of democracy in the world has gradually improved throughout the 20th century and some people seem to take future democratization for granted. Regrettably, a more pessimistic person could also see several upcoming problems. One would be the fading of living memory of the horrors of fascism in Europe and another could be the continued rise of refugee-wave fuelled right-wing populism in Europe.\nAlso potentially troubling is the ability of governments to spy on their citizens like never before due to modern technology and Google's ability to act as a sort of filter to what you see. The advent of AI could only further exacerbate these problems.\nTo measure democracy, we will use the [Democracy Index](https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index) from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The index ranks countries on a 0 to 10 scale.\nOn the unit's scale, the meaning of the numbers is as follows:\n8 ≤ s ≤ 10 : Full democracy\n6 ≤ s ≤ 8 : Flawed democracy\n4 ≤ s ≤ 6 : Hybrid regime\n0 ≤ s ≤ 4 : Authoritarian regime\nMore information can also be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\nThe 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in 2006, so no progress in the last 10 years). Note that the global average is simply the average of all the individual country values; there is no weighting by population.\nIt is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?\nShould the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:44:56.914Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 94,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-24T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-03-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. \nThe question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:02.274Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-18T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2019-01-01T03:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2042-01-02T03:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will The Simpsons air its final episode?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. \nTV Insider called it \"the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time\" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): \nThere’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. \nAs [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: \nThe Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. \nBart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.\nHow long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?\n(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:14.216Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 165,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Disease:\nis a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.\nAccording to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. \nFuturists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),\nWould it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?\nThis question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) &lt; 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.\nOne such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:19.547Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2090-02-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2125-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:25.220Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 408,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[In September 2020, it was announced that phosphine, a potential biomarker, had been detected in the atmosphere of Venus.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1174-4) There is no known abiotic source of phosphine on Venus that could explain the presence of the substance there in the concentrations detected (~20 ppb).\nHowever, [a recent independent re-analysis of the ALMA data claims that data provide no statistical evidence for phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus](https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.09761).\nThere is also a plethora of other work discussed at [Centauri Dreams](https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2020/10/22/back-into-the-clouds-of-venus/).\nWill detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive if an independent observation done after September 2020 will unambiguously confirm presence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus. We will accept any credible independent detection with significance above 5 sigma, but only if the authors of the independent observation will claim that their study indeed generally reproduces the original findings. The study must be published at least as pre-print by 2023.\nThe question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or the authors of the original study agree that there is no significant abundance of phosphine in the Venus atmosphere.\nRelated question:\n[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:30.710Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 163,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:36.262Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 80,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:42.280Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:48.277Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 90,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "20 more languages extinct by 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/322/20-more-languages-extinct-by-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Linguists estimate that humans use around [7,000](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages. Only a few are considered global or widespread languages. The others, although spoken by small regional groups, are often key to the identity and heritage of their respective cultures.\nOnly 102 languages are considered \"International\" or \"National\" and are spoken by [60% of the world's population](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status), despite comprising only 1.4% of all documented modern languages. Globalization, including internet connectivity, international trade, and international travel elevate the importance of these top languages, particularly the six languages with [the most speakers](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/size): Chinese, Spanish, English, Arabic, Hindi, and Portuguese. \nGlobalization can [endanger languages](http://motherboard.vice.com/read/globalization-is-a-leading-factor-in-the-death-of-minority-languages) as well because rising generations learn regional and national languages instead of local or traditional dialects. Estimates of endangered languages range from around [20%](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) to around [50%](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) of all documented languages. Hundreds of languages have already been lost, and the current language death rate is between [four](http://rosettaproject.org/blog/02013/mar/28/new-estimates-on-rate-of-language-loss/) and [six](http://www.ethnologue.com/about) languages per year. [Ethnologue](http://www.ethnologue.com/), an annual report on language status, reports that 360 languages reported as \"living\" in their first 1951 report have since been classified as \"extinct.\" [423](http://www.ethnologue.com/statistics/status) languages are considered [\"nearly extinct,\"](http://www.ethnologue.com/about/language-status) meaning that the only user are aging speakers who have little opportunity to use the language in everyday life.\nBut technology can also help preserve and revitalize languages, with digital documentation and [language resources](http://www.endangeredlanguages.com/) aiming to save some of the most critically endangered languages. Linguists also track languages that are \"reawakening,\" including [seven](http://www.ethnologue.com/country/US/status) in the United States currently enjoying a resurgence.\nWill language loss rates increase by the end of the decade?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the 2021 edition of Ethnologue lists more than 380 extinct languages since 1951, which would indicate a language loss rate greater than four per year, and an acceleration in language loss.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:53.526Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 112,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-09-04T20:55:39Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Modelling the amount of climate change we expect requires estimates of the total emissions, which have historically increased with total GDP. Tradeoffs between climate mitigation and adaptation also depend strongly on how developed we expect different countries to be. By forecasting GDP we can ensure our climate models and climate change policies place most emphasis on worlds that have a high probability of existing.\nThe World Bank reports country-by country GDP adjusted for purchasing power on a yearly basis. A search tool is available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD).\nWhat will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?\nResolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank. \nIf the World Bank is no longer producing yearly estimates, this question may resolve according to another credible source, for example OurWorldInData.\nIn case of needing to inflation-adjust the backup datasource to 2017, [this](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS?locations=US) price-deflator will be used, with [this](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S) the first-choice backup, though admins can select a suitable alternative if neither is available. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:45:59.156Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 20,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-04-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&amp;areas0=0&amp;areas_max=1&amp;grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:04.656Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 78,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The worst pandemic in modern times, killing up to 50 million people worldwide from 1918-1919, was the so-called \"Spanish Flu.\" Emerging today, such a virus could spread very rapidly worldwide relative to 1918; on the other hand we presently have countermeasures (including experience in creating and manufacturing flu vaccines) that did not exist then. So it is unclear how these countervailing effects would interact.\nAlso unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human pathology. Large-scale flu outbreaks since 1918 have not had nearly as high a death toll, but the data prior to 1918 is less clear (see [this paper](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720801/) for an accounting) and the world was far less connected in those times.\nSo here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?\nWill there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035? \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:15.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 261,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Background\n==========\n\nMetaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 million dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. \nHow much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:20.780Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 25,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T00:05:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:05:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Every astrobiologist and their brother is excited about the possibility of life on Jupiter's moon, Europa. And for good reason. It's likely got more liquid water than our fair Earth does. Thanks to Jupiter's gravitation tugging, there's almost certainly lots of volcanic activities beneath those seas to create an environment similar to the one we suspect [gave rise to life](https://www.whoi.edu/news-release/study-tests-theory-that-life-originated-at-deep-sea-vents) on this planet.\nIn addition to fantasizing extensively about [discovering life on Europa](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NlvndXpmEA), our species has been busy preparing recon missions to sample [tasty plumes](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-hubble-spots-possible-water-plumes-erupting-on-jupiters-moon-europa/) of water+organics fulminating off the surface. Maybe we'll get lucky and find convincing proof of biological activity on Europa with the [Clipper mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/).\nOr maybe not.\nEuropa is far away. It's bathed in horrific radiation. It's cold. Its environment would be mean to our drills. And there might not even be life there.\nMeanwhile, other (slightly) more hospitable places – Mars, hint, hint – may also house life. Or maybe boosters of Titan or Enceladus will convince us to go to those worlds first, and we'll find the first alien life there. Or maybe life won't be found at all in the solar system. Or maybe SETI will come through. Or our new mega powerful telescopes will reveal life on extra solar worlds. Or maybe [aliens have already found us](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUHk9FLZMf4)!\nWhat's your take? Question resolves positive if humanity by 2045 discovers convincing evidence of life on Europa and does so before detecting extra terrestrial life anywhere else in the universe. Resolves negative if by 2045 extraterrestrial life is found convincingly elsewhere prior to on Europa. Resolves ambiguous if no extraterrestrial life is found by 2045. (Note: extraterrestrial life must be (a) living currently and (b) highly unlikely to be a result of contamination by Earth spacecraft. This leaves open the possibility of life transported from Earth via other non-human-engineered means.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:26.176Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 369,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-04-21T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2045-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:38.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 249,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first human be born on another world?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:44.322Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 204,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2050-01-01T17:29:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:49.613Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 360,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:46:54.946Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 167,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.\nConstruction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. \nRebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.\nThey've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.\nAs this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:\nThe Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. \nThis other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): \nKnowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.\nWhat do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?\n(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:00.340Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 204,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2134-06-17T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:05.780Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 403,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:16.700Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 272,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. \nWith new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price.\nLow prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would [drop around 8.4%](https://insh.world/tech/what-if-all-cars-were-electric/#:~:text=Electric%20cars%20are%204%2Dtimes,would%20immediately%20drop%20by%208.4%25.). \nIt is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers.\nWhat will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?\nResolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nPrice data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:22.103Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 123,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-31T00:26:45Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-07-01T00:16:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-01-31T01:16:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\nWhat the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated \"layer flock size\" of \"all cage-free layers\" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:27.436Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 147,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. \nThe minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.\nDuring a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.\nWhen will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:33.076Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 46,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-01-01T02:25:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2037-01-02T02:25:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).\nApple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).\nTo put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.\nWhen will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:38.303Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 133,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-19T18:52:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-18T17:17:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-11-24T23:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nTravel restrictions, market crashes, lockdown orders, and many other consequences related to COVID-19 are affecting businesses and workers. \nAs of now, over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, however, with a vaccine on the way, the economy should, hopefully, be able to re-open and begin normal, pre-COVID operations in 2021.\nWill Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nGross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. \nAnother question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:44.844Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 70,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-28T21:03:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPCC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nPathway RCP4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPCC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z). Over the 2024 to 2027 period, it corresponds to an average of 423.89 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 414.52 parts-per-million (ppm) over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 414.52 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:50.396Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 101,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-06-30T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:47:56.131Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 444,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will any country stop using cash currency?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nThe currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&amp;qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.\nWhen will the world see the first cashless society?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:02.010Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 151,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-09-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-02-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2050-06-29T22:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:07.570Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 40,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.\nAs of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. \nHowever, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: \n[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 &amp; 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?\nInflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:12.950Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 138,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:18.342Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 140,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:\n--- \n[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)\n--- \n[Hodge conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture)\n--- \n[Navier–Stokes existence and smoothness](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/navier–stokes-equation)\n--- \n[P versus NP problem](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem)\n--- \n[Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis)\n--- \n[Riemann hypothesis](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/riemann-hypothesis), and \n--- \n[Yang–Mills existence and mass gap.](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/yang–mills-and-mass-gap)\nA correct solution to any of the problems results in a US $1M prize (sometimes called a Millennium Prize) being awarded by the institute. The only solved problem is the [Poincaré conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/poincaré-conjecture), which was solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003.\nThis question will resolve in the positive if the Clay Institute accepts a solution to one of the six remaining outstanding problems before the end of 2027. The prize does not have to have been awarded or accepted by this time, as long as it is generally accepted that the Institute recognises the proof.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:24.589Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 236,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-05-28T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2017-12-31T12:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caenorhabditis_elegans),\nCaenorhabditis elegans is a free-living, transparent nematode, about 1 mm in length, that lives in temperate soil environments. It is the type species of its genus. [...] In 1963, Sydney Brenner proposed research into C. elegans primarily in the area of neuronal development. In 1974, he began research into the molecular and developmental biology of C. elegans, which has since been extensively used as a model organism. It was the first multicellular organism to have its whole genome sequenced, and as of 2019, is the only organism to have its connectome (neuronal \"wiring diagram\") completed.\nIn 2011 the project [OpenWorm](http://openworm.org/) began the ambitious [goal](http://docs.openworm.org/en/latest/modeling/) to \"build the world's first virtual organism-- an in silico implementation of a living creature-- for the purpose of achieving an understanding of the events and mechanisms of living cells.\"\nMore generally, whole brain emulation of complex organisms has been [called](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) \"the logical endpoint of computational neuroscience’s attempts to accurately model neurons and brain systems\" by researchers at the Future of Humanity Institute. More speculatively, success in emulating humans could entail the ability to transfer one's personality and memory onto a computing substrate by having their brain scanned and transferred into a computer model. Many who sign up for cryonics anticipate developments in whole brain emulation to be critical for a successful revival.\nUnfortunately, progress has been slow. As of 2020, it is apparent that C. elegans has not been uploaded to a computer substrate in any satisfying manner. Will the same be true by January 1st 2030?\nAssume that in January 2030, an email is sent to 25 top computational neuroscientists (determined later in this question) asking,\nHas recent progress in simulating the brain of Caenorhabditis elegans convinced you that the term \"whole brain emulation\" is an appropriate term for the current simulations of this organism? In other words, from what you've seen, are the models of C. elegans nearly behaviorally identical to the real C. elegans? For the sake of clarity, please respond with a clear \"Yes\", \"No\" or \"Other\" in your reply.\nThe question is allowed to include an introduction, and an explanation of why it is being asked. It is also allowed to include any clarifications for key terms, such as \"whole brain emulation.\"\nThis question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply to the email respond with a clear \"Yes\" (or \"yes\" or some phrase that clearly indicates the same meaning). Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If the results from such an email are not published by the end of January 2030, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe group of 25 leading computational neuroscientists would be the group created via the following method:\n1-- \nIn January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to bioarXiv from 2020 to 2030 (inclusive) in the category \"Neuronscience\".\n2-- \nFor each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. (A person has a public email address if they are associated with a research institution that has a webpage listing their email for contact.)\n3-- \nContinue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\n(Edited 2020-04-19 to upgrade method for picking the 25 scientists.)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:30.207Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 157,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-02-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.\nApparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.\nThe Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.\nWhen will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?\n---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). \n---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. \n---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. \n---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:35.825Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 151,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-22T05:51:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-06-22T05:51:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:42.442Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-05T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-12-31T22:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many communist states will there be in 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.\nSimultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).\nThe question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"communist state\" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.\nThis question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:48.760Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 141,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2040-12-31T14:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?\nResolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).\nBy average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:48:54.080Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 188,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-06-11T15:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:00.046Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 122,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.15000000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:18.032Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 223,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:23.526Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 89,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:34.047Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 85,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a \"deliverable\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_(1)_(%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh)_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.\nThe Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&amp;t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.\nAdmittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.\nBy 2025, will more than 50% of North America's electrical generation capacity be provided by zero-carbon sources?\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:40.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 168,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-07-03T23:30:36Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2018-01-01T23:30:51Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:45.837Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 196,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
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"close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:51.899Z",
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"numforecasts": 88,
"resolution_data": {
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"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nFor the last three decades, the microelectronic industry has benefited enormously from the [MOSFET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSFET) miniaturisation. The shrinking of transistors to dimensions below 100 nm enables hundreds of millions transistors to be placed on a single chip. However, it is well-known that the currently most commonly used semiconductor device design method that has dominated for the past two-three decades, planar [CMOS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS), runs into serious issues at the microscopic scale. \nOne of these issue arises from practical limits related to 'leak' current at small gate lengths [(Thompson et al, 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369702106715395#aep-section-id14). This leakage current wastes power, raises the temperature and, if excessive, can cause the device to fail. Leakage becomes a serious problem when insulating barriers within transistors approach thicknesses of 3 nanometres or so (currently, in 2019, some transistors are ~ 5nm thick). Below that, leakage increases exponentially, rendering the device pretty near useless.\nAdditionally, a thermodynamical effect effect, the increasing of thermal fluctuations ([Johnson-Nyquist noise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnson%E2%80%93Nyquist_noise)), may result in increasingly many false bit occurences on the density of transistors on a chip [(Kish, 2002)](https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0375960102013658?token=DAFEF7A7A274565D5842794BC881A1D1B7E472DD34032AB3672F18D4B961957B75E4A45C536322A0913D01633023164F).\nTo continue along at the exponential pace of performance progress, manufacturers have added more processors to each chip. For example, modern CPUs have between two and 32 cores, with most processors containing four to eight. In practice, exploiting eight cores means that a problem has to be broken down into eight pieces — which for many algorithms is difficult to impossible. In fact, [Amdahl's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) predicts that the theoretical speedup of even the most parallelizable program is limited to at most 20 times.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an a geometric mean of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWill the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraFLOPS in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?\nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if the geometric mean of the year-over-year (yoy) growth rate (in %) of the sum of performance experienced over each three year period, from 2025 to 2034, is lower than the next. That is, it resolves positively, if: \ngeometric mean(growth rate from 2025 to 2028) &gt; geometric mean(growth rate from 2028 to 2031) &gt; geometric mean(growth rate from 2031 to 2034).\nPerformance here means performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraFLOPS at Rmax (i.e. the maximal LINPACK performance achieved).\nAs the TOP500 publishes two lists each year, to maximally use all available information, a three-year period shall have six yoy growth rates: the yoy growth rate from:\n---Jul year 0 to Jul year 1 \n---Nov year 0 to Nov year 1 \n---Jul year 1 to Jul year 2 \n---Nov year 1 to Nov year 2 \n---Jul year 2 to Jul year 3 \n---Nov year 2 to Nov year 3 \nFor example, the three year period starting in 2025 ending in 2028 will have the following six growth rates:\n---Jul 2025 to Jul 2026 \n---Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 \n---Jul 2026 to Jul 2027 \n---Nov 2026 to Nov 2027 \n---Jul 2027 to Jul 2028 \n---Nov 2027 to Nov 2028 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that multiplies over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:49:59.513Z",
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"close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:06.078Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 119,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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{
"title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&amp;terms-0-term=cs.cl&amp;terms-0-field=all&amp;classification-computer_science=y&amp;classification-physics_archives=all&amp;classification-include_cross_list=include&amp;date-filter_by=all_dates&amp;date-year=&amp;date-from_date=&amp;date-to_date=&amp;date-date_type=submitted_date_first&amp;abstracts=show&amp;size=50&amp;order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:17.422Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 95,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for \"[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),\" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.\nIt has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly \"slotted in\" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:\nWhen will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? \nFor positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:22.780Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 333,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:07:03Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T18:33:24Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to \"phone home\" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).\nHow we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):\nThe sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.\nAlas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:\nThe Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.\nWhat will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):\nAbout [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants\nIn any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? \nQuestion will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:28.478Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 116,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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},
{
"title": "What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:34.211Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 113,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-24T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
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},
{
"title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:39.844Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 259,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
"options": [],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:45.174Z",
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"close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
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{
"title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"description": "[warning: links may contain spoilers]\n[George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin) (GRRM) is the author of the A Song Of Ice And Fire (ASOIAF) books, a series of fantasy novels. Both the book series and the derived TV show [are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#Sales) extraordinarily [popular](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_Thrones#Viewer_numbers).\nMany of [GRRM's fans have commented](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/80kaf8/spoilers_extended_is_grrm_stuck_or_is_he_just_slow/) (with [varying degrees of frustration](https://www.thenationalbookreview.com/features/2016/1/15/rant-why-have-george-r-r-martins-writing-his-game-of-thrones-books-so-slowly-and-why-are-they-so-long)) that the latest ASOIAF books are [taking him a long time to write](https://www.thisisinsider.com/why-winds-of-winter-is-taking-so-long-2017-1).\nFor instance: the most recent book had to be split into two because it was getting so long and late; the publication date of the next instalment, Winds of Winter, [keeps getting pushed back](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter#Publication_date) (it was at one point announced to be in 2016); and the narrative of the TV show is now much further along the books', [finishing entirely this coming year](https://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones/season-8-returning-2019).\nAlso: GRRM is now 70 years old, and not getting any younger. People have openly speculated that he might die before he finishes ASOIAF. When confronted with these speculations, GRRM [does not respond well](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/game-of-thrones-author-george-rr-martin-says-f-you-to-fans-who-fear-he-will-die-before-finishing-9596265.html).\nThis question asks the following:\nWill George R. R. Martin die before the official publication date of the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire?\nDetails: \n--- \nI have not specified the name of the 'final book' as [\"A Dream of Spring\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire#A_Dream_of_Spring) in case that is not actually the last title in the series. He might change the name, or decide that more than eight books are needed; he's split planned instalments before, and the previous link includes a quote where he suggests he could do so again.\n--- \nFor a book to fulfil resolution criteria, GRRM or his representatives must announce the book as being the full resolution of the series prior to its publication. It should not be described as the [posthumous] publication of an edited incomplete draft or similar (which would make it analogous to [The Salmon of Doubt](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Salmon_of_Doubt) or [Unfinished Tales](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unfinished_Tales)).\n------The Metaculus community consensus should agree that the book is an 'acceptable attempted resolution' to the ASOIAF story arc, and the print version should ideally include indications that the book is the end of the story (e.g. \"The End\" printed on the final pages). (The intention of this criterion is to avoid a situation where GRRM or his publishers say that they're releasing the final book but the story isn't actually 'done', to the extent that there are so many unresolved plot points and 'missing' foreshadowed events that it's clear that the narrative has been significantly cut short from what was originally planned by GRRM. Of course, it's almost inevitable that there will be one or two loose ends at the end, but that's not what I'm describing. I hope the Metaculus community will be sensible enough to draw the desired distinction.) \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:56.516Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 376,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-30T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2023-01-01T13:00:00Z",
"resolve_time": "2023-03-01T13:01:00Z"
},
"stars": 3
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "👸🏼🀄️ 。💬 ( ‘ ://pokémon/ 🕸3 pops 🍾 ‘ ) ;",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x0084617c0996c66370125dbece14233c8a9b7add",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Shohei Ohtani accumulate more strikeouts as a pitcher pitching or as a batter batting in the 2021 season?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x88491f71b2a1116d30489d40a13c468b77c2f186",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Option 0",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 1",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 2",
"probability": 0.019999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Option 0, Option 1, Option 2"
},
{
"title": "Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.20499027420503976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7950097257949602,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Alex Saunders TVS - Total Value Scammed",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcbfd064c11a19f9474f6c66f5ebc4e49067cca2f",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Option 0",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 1",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Option 2",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Option 0, Option 1, Option 2"
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{
"title": "Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbb",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6000780241847908,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39992197581520916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7912016818768697,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.20879831812313038,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Ethereum have multiple reorgs per day for the purpose of MEV extraction at any day before 1 April of 2022 or The Merge, whichever comes sooner?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd4d91a0aa0993f4f4a2551f821c742d1175fee9b",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:50:58.895Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any US state report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-us-state-report-record-high-7-day-average-covid-19-cases-before-january-1-2022",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether any US state will report record high 7-day average COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if any US state reports record high 7-day average COVID-19 cases on or after the date of this market’s market inception, July 19, 2021, and on or before December 31, 2021. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” For example, if a US state had a previous record high 7-day average of 10,000 COVID-19 cases, and reached 10,000 or more 7-day average COVID-19 cases again before January 1, 2022, this market would resolve to “Yes.” This market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for each of the 50 states, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select a given state of interest, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). Note that this market only refers to US states, not territories. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, to see if any US states reported record high 7-day average COVID-19 cases. The market will resolve immediately if the criteria for “Yes” are met. The final check will be on January 8, 2022, 8 PM ET, checking all days from the creation of this market to December 31, 2021. If the website is down or data is unavailable during the final check, the market will resolve based on the most recent previous check that had data available. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n-Note that New York (excluding NYC) and New York City both appear in the dropdown. To determine whether the state of New York reported a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average, the daily 7-day COVID case averages for New York (excluding NYC) and New York City will be combined to determine 7-day averages, including the record high. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.985312335839455621592991609191348",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.014687664160544378407008390808652",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.931Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "100",
"liquidity": "3074.40",
"tradevolume": "7536.82",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Declan Rice sign for Chelsea on or before August 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-declan-rice-sign-for-chelsea-on-or-before-august-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Declan Rice will sign for Chelsea on or before August 31, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Declan Rice signs for Chelsea in the transfer window on or before August 31. This market will resolve to “No” if Declan Rice does not sign with Chelsea on or before August 31. This market will resolve to \"No\" if Declan Rice signs a contract extension with West Ham, or signs for another club other than Chelsea on or before August 31, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4118939811297508756821375200735701",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5881060188702491243178624799264299",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "26",
"liquidity": "562.43",
"tradevolume": "242.31",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired in 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Clubhouse officially announces they’ve been acquired before January 1, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET, and “No” otherwise. The phrase “announce they’ve been acquired” means the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note that this market pertains to the announcement—if Clubhouse announces they’ve been acquired in 2021, but the acquisition is finalized in 2022, the market will still resolve to “Yes.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3025770184010382488303193549056509",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6974229815989617511696806450943491",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "55",
"liquidity": "4633.21",
"tradevolume": "7822.00",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-more-than-100000-new-daily-covid-19-cases-before-january-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market, July 9, 2021, and prior to the resolution date, January 1, 2022, with more than 100,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records more than 100,000 daily COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET. The final check will be on January 8, 2022, 8 PM ET, checking all days from the creation of this market to December 31, 2021. Only daily numbers will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.980725016796976447049341713915382",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.01927498320302355295065828608461804",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1350",
"liquidity": "13847.42",
"tradevolume": "269014.38",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Simone Biles win 5 or more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-simone-biles-win-5-or-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Simone Biles wins 5 or more gold medals at the 2020 OIympics in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Note, this market will count medals won in both individual and team events. If this athlete has not completed all their events and has also not been eliminated from meeting the criteria for this market to resolve to “Yes” (e.g. because events have been postponed) by September 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03595737442434982373341010414670523",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9640426255756501762665898958532948",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "90",
"liquidity": "900.17",
"tradevolume": "4751.57",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will 21 US States administer at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose to 70% of adults by September 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-21-us-states-administer-at-least-one-covid-19-vaccine-dose-to-70-of-adults-by-september-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be 21 states or more in the U.S. which have administered at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine to 70% or more of its adult population, by September 1, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s display, for each state, of the percent of the total population that is 18 year of older that has received at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine. See https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, and select “View: People”, “Show: At Least One Dose”, “Metric: % of Population”, “Population: Population ≥ 18 Years of Age”, and then hover over the states on the map, or view tabular data in the Data Table display below. The official resolution source will be the data listed in the Data Table display. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are 21 or more U.S. states which have administered at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine to 70% of its population aged 18 or older, according to the resolution source, on the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” (Note: only the 48 contiguous states, Hawaii, and Alaska will be considered U.S. states for this market. Washington D.C. Puerto Rico, and other U.S. territories will not count.) In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9735149627183161878288011291557064",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.02648503728168381217119887084429355",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "261",
"liquidity": "347.92",
"tradevolume": "19194.67",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. Men’s Basketball team win the Gold Medal at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-mens-basketball-team-win-the-gold-medal-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the U.S. Men’s Basketball team will win the Gold Medal at the 2020 Olympics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Men’s Basketball team wins the Gold Medal at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve on August 8, 2021, when the Gold medal match is scheduled to be played, or sooner, if the U.S. Men’s basketball team is eliminated before that event. If the Gold Medal match is postponed to September 8, 2021 (Eastern Time Zone) or earlier, the same rules will apply. If the Gold Medal match is postponed to September 9, 2021 (Eastern Time Zone) or later, or cancelled altogether, this market will resolve to $0.75 for “Yes” and $0.25 for “No.” Note, this is a market on the standard team basketball event at the 2020 Olympic Games, in the Men’s category, not the 3x3 Basketball event.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.663593222021289432666039314220528",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.336406777978710567333960685779472",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "144",
"liquidity": "3971.54",
"tradevolume": "7869.11",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. Women’s Soccer team win the Gold Medal at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-womens-soccer-team-win-the-gold-medal-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Women’s Soccer team wins the Gold Medal at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve on August 5, 2021 (Eastern Time Zone), when the Gold medal match is scheduled to be played, or sooner, if the U.S. Women’s soccer team is eliminated before that event. If the Gold Medal match is postponed to September 8, 2021, 11:59 PM ET or earlier, the same rules will apply. If the Gold Medal match is postponed to September 9, 2021, 12:00 AM ET or later, this market will resolve to $0.60 for “Yes” and $0.40 for “No.” ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3778892739025610354932070413967676",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6221107260974389645067929586032324",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "67",
"liquidity": "1908.93",
"tradevolume": "3188.87",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will 40 or more US states have high/substantial COVID-19 community spread on any day on or before September 1? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-40-or-more-us-states-have-highsubstantial-covid-19-community-spread-on-any-day-on-or-before-september-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 40 or more US states will have high or substantial COVID-19 community spread on any day on or after the inception date of this market, July 15, 2021, and on or before September 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 40 or more states have high or substantial community spread on any day on or after July 15 and on or before September 1, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_community with “Level of Community Transmission” selected. The resolution source will be checked every day at 8 PM ET, and the number of states with high or substantial community spread will calculated. If on any of these checks the number of states with high or substantial community spread is 40 or higher, the market will resolve to “Yes.” The final check will be on September 1, 2021, at 8 PM ET. If the resolution source is down or data is unavailable, then the market will resolve based on the most recently available data. Note that territories will not be considered for this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9767102105823126614550367410165651",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.02328978941768733854496325898343486",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "285",
"liquidity": "3797.56",
"tradevolume": "28716.87",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Katie Ledecky win 3 or more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-katie-ledecky-win-3-or-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Katie Ledecky wins 3 or more gold medals at the 2020 OIympics in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Note, this market will count medals won in both individual and team events. If this athlete has not completed all their events and has also not been eliminated from meeting the criteria for this market to resolve to “Yes” (e.g. because events have been postponed) by September 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2497289008222487312705783387361457",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7502710991777512687294216612638543",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "110",
"liquidity": "1227.14",
"tradevolume": "5066.12",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump’s Facebook or Twitter accounts post by September 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-new-post-appear-on-donald-trumps-official-facebook-or-twitter-accounts-by-september-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether any new post will appear on Donald Trump’s official Facebook or Twitter accounts, from which he is currently suspended, before September 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new post appears on either Donald Trump’s official Facebook account (https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/) or official Twitter account (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump), which has a timestamp dated after July 1, 2021, 12:00 PM and before September 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03294627977017159893633635368585011",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9670537202298284010636636463141499",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "74",
"liquidity": "493.19",
"tradevolume": "1576.14",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will EIP-1559 be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet before August 5, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-on-the-ethereum-mainnet-before-august-5-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether EIP-1559 will be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, August 5 2021, 12:00:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if EIP-1559 is implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01424971527960526891279706531479261",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9857502847203947310872029346852074",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "3154",
"liquidity": "30921.71",
"tradevolume": "1592494.89",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Gavin Newsom be Governor of California on December 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-gavin-newsom-be-governor-of-california-on-december-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Gavin Newsom will be the Governor of California on December 31, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, on the resolution date, Gavin Newsom is the Governor of the state of California as substantiated by official government sources (e.g. https://www.gov.ca.gov/). If, for any reason, Gavin Newsom is not the sitting Governor of California on or before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8542000554944582747337537165923907",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1457999445055417252662462834076093",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "174",
"liquidity": "3179.00",
"tradevolume": "8902.33",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Founders Fund invest in the next announced Onlyfans fundraising round in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-founders-fund-be-announced-as-an-investor-in-onlyfans-next-funding-round-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the venture capital firm Founders Fund will be listed as an investor in OnlyFans' next announced fundraising round in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Founders Fund is listed as an investor in OnlyFans' next announced funding round according to either Crunchbase, Bloomberg, or a direct post from an official OnlyFans or Founders Fund channel before January 1st, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET. If a new official OnlyFans fundraising round is announced and Founders Fund isn't publicly identified as an investor in the round, the market will resolve to \"No\". If no new fundraising round for OnlyFans is announced in one of the aforementioned publications by the end of 2021, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2596560267162198437564259283503626",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7403439732837801562435740716496374",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "46",
"liquidity": "12519.54",
"tradevolume": "11890.45",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on September 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-september-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on September 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html, 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04193960603441676882637488896872248",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9580603939655832311736251110312775",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "3885",
"liquidity": "43379.86",
"tradevolume": "481925.37",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kanye West’s DONDA sell more than 250K album units in its first week?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-wests-donda-sell-more-than-250k-units-in-its-first-week",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of album unit “sales” that Kanye West’s “Donda” will have in the first week that it appears on Rollingstone’s weekly rankings of Top 200 Albums. The resolution source for this market will be Rolling Stone’s weekly ranking of popular albums, https://www.rollingstone.com/charts/albums/, which ranks albums each week, beginning on Friday and going through to the next Thursday. This market will resolve to “Yes” if “Donda” achieves more than 250,000 album in the first week that it appears in Rollingstone’s weekly album rankings. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” For example, if the album was released on a Monday, the Rollingstone week period used would be the period from the previous Friday to following Thursday. If the album is not released by August 13, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, or the first week album units are not available by August 23, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be checked on the Friday, the day after the Rollingstone week-long period, at 12:00 PM ET. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6009391161490002267482488668080228",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3990608838509997732517511331919772",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "231",
"liquidity": "8920.07",
"tradevolume": "37131.87",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Rudy Giuliani be indicted for a federal crime by August 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-rudy-giuliani-be-indicted-for-a-federal-crime-by-august-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the former Mayor of New York City, Rudolph Giuliani, will be indicted for a federal crime by August 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rudolph Giuliani is indicted for a federal crime, as confirmed by government sources (https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel & https://www.justice.gov/news) or credible news reports of an indictment by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No” (this market will resolve to \"No\" if Giuliani is indicted for a non-federal crime). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.005998912861316465875681812368952196",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9940010871386835341243181876310478",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "367",
"liquidity": "2794.87",
"tradevolume": "14751.55",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be at least 850 unicorn companies worldwide according to CBInsights by October 1st?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-at-least-850-unicorn-companies-worldwide-according-to-cbinsights-by-october-1st",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be at least 850 unicorn companies worldwide according to CBInsights by October 1, 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if there are 850 or more unicorn companies worldwide according to CBInsights by October 1, 2021, 8:00 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source is https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies. The total number of unicorn companies worldwide is listed at the top of the page. The resolution source will be checked at 8 PM ET daily; if the total number of unicorn companies worldwide is at least 850 during any one of these checks, the market will resolve to \"Yes.\" As of the time of market creation, July 9, 2021, there are 750 unicorn companies on the list. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4146816980147331264267985131414866",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5853183019852668735732014868585134",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "100",
"liquidity": "2705.04",
"tradevolume": "4143.03",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Brad McClelland be in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-brad-mcclelland-win-top-male-on-love-island-uk-season-7",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Brad McClelland will be in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brad McClelland is in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7, and “No” otherwise. If for any reason the show ends without a winning couple, the market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03526976229925174328590359217485579",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9647302377007482567140964078251442",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "42",
"liquidity": "77.33",
"tradevolume": "422.00",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 1000 COVID-19 cases on any day on or before September 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-1000-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-september-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be fewer than 1,000 daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. on any date from May 19, 2021 to September 1, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s count for the number of new daily COVID-19 cases, as displayed on their COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily count for total new cases falls below 1,000 for any date from May 19, 2021 to September 1, 2021. Specifically, at 8:00 PM ET each day from May 20 to September 2, 2021, the daily case total for all previous days will be checked (e.g. on June 15, case counts for all dates from May 19 to June 14 will be checked). If that count is under 1,000 at the time of any one of those checks, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nUnusual Cases:\n- If the CDC website is down at the time of the final check, market resolution will be delayed until the website is restored, or if it is not restored within 48 hours, this market will resolve to 50-50.\n- If, at the time of a check, data is unavailable for any of the dates being checked, only dates for which there is data will be considered (e.g. if on the June 15 check, there is no data for the date of June 10, only data from May 19 to June 9 and June 11 to June 14 will be considered). If data is not available for any of the dates from May 19, 2021, to September 1, 2021, within 48 hours of the final check (by September 4, 2021, 8:00 PM ET), this market will resolve on data from dates for which data is available.\n\nUpdate: The market title has been updated to \"Will the US have fewer than 1000 COVID-19 cases on any day on or before September 1?\" to more clearly reflect the rules.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08847111881402667740534678353048185",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9115288811859733225946532164695181",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1281",
"liquidity": "11278.34",
"tradevolume": "103808.76",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will $SOL (Solana) be above $33 on July 29?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-sol-solana-be-above-33-on-july-29",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the candlestick close price of $SOL (Solana) will be above $33.00 for the date and time of July 29, 2021, at 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be prices listed on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the resolution source, $SOL has a candlestick closing price of greater than $33.00 for the date and time of July 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve on the “C” (i.e. closing price) listed for the candle titled “Thu 29 July 2021, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on July 29, 2021. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Coingecko is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be chosen in good faith by the MIC to resolve the market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01703042027131827929733943622723432",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9829695797286817207026605637727657",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1328",
"liquidity": "1572.00",
"tradevolume": "35000.36",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Britney Spears' father be removed or resign from her conservatorship by October 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-britney-spears-conservatorship-end-by-october-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Britney Spears’ father, James Parnell Spears, will resign or be removed from her conservatorship by the resolution date, October 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if James Parnell Spears is no longer Britney's conservator at any point prior to the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be any credible news report or court order which confirms that James Parnell Spears is no longer Britney's conservator. This market will also resolve to \"No\" if James Parnell Spears is removed or resigns as conservator after the resolution date, but the announcement of this removal or resignation occurs before the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2913242333548126651794080092156714",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7086757666451873348205919907843286",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "237",
"liquidity": "9803.22",
"tradevolume": "53413.43",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index be for July 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-be-for-july-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a scalar market on Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for July 2021. The lower bound for this market is 150 and the upper bound is 220. This market will resolve on Manheim Consulting's Used Vehicle Value Index for the month of July, scheduled to be released on August 6, 2021 at https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.htm. The resolution source will be checked at 5:00 PM ET on August 6, 2021. If the source is unavailable at that time, or does not have a Used Vehicle Index Value for July at that time, it will be checked the following day at 5:00 PM ET, and once daily at that time until the data is available. If at 5:00 PM ET on August 13, 2021 the data is still unavailable, this market will resolve to 185, which is between the upper and lower bounds of the market. \n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with Used Vehicle Index Values. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Long",
"probability": "0.6130723172183851374824315313519728",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Short",
"probability": "0.3869276827816148625175684686480272",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "18",
"liquidity": "2098.43",
"tradevolume": "6250.00",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009161866630052146257641847013861946",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9990838133369947853742358152986138",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "4073",
"liquidity": "2297.62",
"tradevolume": "463520.07",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-the-2024-republican-presidential-nominee",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, and “No” otherwise. This resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including gop.gov. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3708129890668818392281297892545623",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6291870109331181607718702107454377",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "27",
"liquidity": "85975.06",
"tradevolume": "28547.18",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a bill which increases long-term capital gains taxes above 20% become law by August 10, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-bill-which-increases-long-term-capital-gains-taxes-above-20-become-law-by-august-10-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether a bill will be passed in the U.S. raising long-term capital gains tax rates for individuals to above 20%, by the resolution date, August 10, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the resolution date, a bill is signed into law in the U.S. which effectively increases the marginal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals to a rate higher than 20% for any tax bracket. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is https://www.congress.gov/, which will be checked regularly to see if a bill meeting the aforementioned criteria is listed as having “became law” on or before the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market doesn't include the 3.8% surtax on net investment income (NII).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.009435687635582135692392187632324907",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9905643123644178643076078123676751",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "446",
"liquidity": "2490.69",
"tradevolume": "41542.80",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump announce a run for President by October 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-announce-a-run-for-president-by-october-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump will announce that he is running for the Office of the President of the United States in 2024 before October 2, 2021, 12:00 am ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any official announcement stating Donald Trump is running for the Office of the President of the United States in 2024 is released before the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Official announcements will include any press releases, definitive statements, videos, or credible statements to the media from Donald Trump or his staff stating he is running for Office of the President of the United States in 2024. In the event of conflicting information from different media sources or ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04666550376916235811917951397628671",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9533344962308376418808204860237133",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "209",
"liquidity": "1359.74",
"tradevolume": "12872.64",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, or Hunter Biden be charged with a federal crime by October 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nancy-pelosi-hillary-clinton-bill-clinton-or-hunter-biden-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-by-october-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, or Hunter Biden will be charged with a federal crime by October 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, President Bill Clinton, or President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden are charged with a federal crime, as confirmed by government sources (https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel & https://www.justice.gov/news) or credible news reports by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No” (this market will resolve to \"No\" if any of the listed parties is charged with a non-federal crime). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0472182580752463131982550224844905",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9527817419247536868017449775155095",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "347",
"liquidity": "10236.49",
"tradevolume": "64284.76",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 52.5% or higher on August 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-525-or-higher-on-august-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 52.5% or higher for the day of August 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the date of August 1, 2021, when it becomes available. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution date for this market will be on August 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of August 1, 2021. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until the actual data is available. If the actual data is not available on the resolution source by August 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4616692549634761335565686615253813",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5383307450365238664434313384746187",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "138",
"liquidity": "2461.34",
"tradevolume": "6864.63",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Cardano support smart contracts on Mainnet by October 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-cardano-support-smart-contracts-on-mainnet-by-october-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Cardano Mainnet will be live and supporting smart contract deployment and functionality by October 1st, 2021, 12 PM ET. In Cardano’s official roadmap, this is referred to as Goguen. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is possible to create and execute functional smart contracts on the Cardano network on a “Mainnet” by the resolution date. This includes token deployment, and does not include staking functionality or consensus mechanisms. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nPer the Cardano roadmap:\n“With the integration of smart contracts, the Goguen era represents a big step forwards in capability for the Cardano network. Where the Shelley era decentralizes the core of the system, Goguen adds the ability to build decentralized applications (DApps) on Cardano’s solid foundation of peer-reviewed research and high-assurance development.”\n\n“This will allow the creation of fungible and non-fungible tokens, supporting the creation of new cryptocurrencies on Cardano as well as the tokenization of many types of digital and physical assets. Another benefit will be easier integration of smart contracts and DApps involving multiple cryptocurrencies.”\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4552342045431110054487347812037308",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5447657954568889945512652187962692",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "538",
"liquidity": "28803.56",
"tradevolume": "331851.18",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will inflation be 0.6% or more from June to July?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-06-or-more-from-june-to-july",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.6% or more from June to July, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of July on August 11, 2021, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.6 percent (i.e. sixty hundredths of 1%) or more from June 2021 to July 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.6 percent (i.e. sixty hundredths of 1%) from June 2021 to July 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS July 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on August 11, 2021, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.6%, 0.5%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.5%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.6%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6616135512459872043094819442097875",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3383864487540127956905180557902125",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "132",
"liquidity": "4141.52",
"tradevolume": "5124.73",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s \"Certified Lover Boy\"?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a scalar market on what Anthony Fantano, aka theneedledrop, will rate Drake’s upcoming album, set to be titled “Certified Lover Boy”, in his Youtube review. The lower bound is 0 and the upper bound is 10. Ratings like “strong”, “light” and other similar words will be interpreted in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). For example, in the case of “a strong 6 to light 7”, the market would resolve to 7, while “a light to decent 6” would resolve to 6.25. A “Not Good” will resolve as 0. Market starts December 7th, 2020, and this market will be based on Drake's next album release after this date, even if it is not titled \"Certified Lover Boy\". In the unlikely event that theneedledrop does not rate Drake's upcoming album, this market will resolve to 5.\n\nAs this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with theneedledrop rating. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Long",
"probability": "0.5776287968083118772140112984150904",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Short",
"probability": "0.4223712031916881227859887015849096",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "105",
"liquidity": "1127.69",
"tradevolume": "4052.55",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
},
{
"title": "Will Iron Finance V2’s TVL be above $500m on August 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-iron-finance-v2s-tvl-be-above-500m-on-august-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Iron Finance V2’s overall TVL will be above $500 million on August 1, 2021, at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iron Finance’s overall TVL is above $500,000,000 on August 1, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET, and “No” Otherwise. The resolution source will be https://app.iron.finance/ with the TVL number currently under “Total Value Locked.” The resolution source will be checked at exactly 12:00 PM ET on August 1, 2021. If the resolution source is for any reason unavailable, or the overall TVL number is unavailable anywhere on the webpage, the resolution source will be checked 1 hour later at 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2021. If the resolution source or overall TVL number is still unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.698504667920789837918241390848584",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.301495332079210162081758609151416",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "538",
"liquidity": "3325.24",
"tradevolume": "47593.09",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States win 44 or more Gold Medals at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-states-win-44-or-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States wins 44 or more Gold Medals at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Gold Medals in team events count as one medal (e.g. if the U.S. Men’s Basketball team wins Gold, that is one Gold medal). The resolution source for this market will be the Gold medal count, from an official Olympic source, e.g. https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/all-sports/medal-standings.htm. This market will resolve after the Closing Ceremony, currently scheduled for August 8, 2021, or earlier if the total has been reached before that date. If the Closing ceremonies are delayed beyond September 8, 2021, 12:00 PM ET or canceled, this market will resolve on the total Gold medal count as it stands on September 8, 2021, 12:00 PM ET.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3809781009674085832992349128173604",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6190218990325914167007650871826396",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "94",
"liquidity": "2344.78",
"tradevolume": "3961.87",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the United States report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-united-states-report-a-record-high-7-day-covid-19-case-average-before-january-1-2022",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "In response to trader inquiry: The threshold of 251,882 in the original rules, as determined by the record high at the time of this market's inception, will continue to be used for this market’s resolution. Note however that the record high has been updated from 251,882 to 254,052, given a retroactive data update from the CDC, and may continue to be updated.\n\nThis is a market on whether the United States will report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average before January 1, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States reports a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average on or after the date of this market’s inception, July 20, 2021, and on or before December 31, 2021. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” At the time of this market’s inception, the record high 7-day COVID-19 case average in the United States was 251,882. Thus, if the US reaches a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 251,883 or more on or after July 20, 2021 and before January 1, 2022, this market would resolve to “Yes.” \n\nThis market will resolve on data from the CDC's Data Tracker, specifically, the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases for the United States, which is available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases (navigate to \"Select a state or territory\" and select “United States”, and then scroll to \"Data Table for Daily Case Trends\" and view the data in the \"7-Day Moving Avg\" column, which is able to be sorted in descending order). The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, to see if the United States reported a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average. The market will resolve immediately if the criteria for “Yes” are met. The final check will be on January 8, 2022, 8 PM ET, checking the 7-day average on all days from the creation of this market to December 31, 2021. If the website is down or data is unavailable during the final check, the market will resolve based on the most recent previous check that had data available. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2730048106575640298485032779887996",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7269951893424359701514967220112004",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "205",
"liquidity": "8160.53",
"tradevolume": "23016.07",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index be above 200 for July 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-manheim-used-vehicle-value-index-be-above-200-for-july-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index will be above 200 for July 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is above 200 for July 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html scheduled to release July’s index value on August 6, 2021. The resolution source will be checked at 5:00 PM ET on August 6. If the source is unavailable at that time, or does not have the the value of the index for July 2021, it will be checked the following day at 5:00 PM ET, and once daily at that time until the data is available. If at 5:00 PM ET on September 1, 2021 the data is still unavailable, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06159109421101462334569789153564146",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9384089057889853766543021084643585",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "42",
"liquidity": "2713.71",
"tradevolume": "2095.91",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Spotify report at least 164m total premium subscribers in Q2 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-spotify-report-at-least-164m-total-premium-subscribers-in-q2-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Spotify will report at least 164 million total premium subscribers in Q2 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Spotify reports at least 164 million total premium subscribers in Q2 2021, and “No” otherwise. If Spotify does not report total premium subscriber numbers for Q2 2021 by September 1, 2021, the market will resolve to \"No.\" For example, if Spotify reports exactly 164 million total premium subscribers in Q2 2021, the market will resolve to “Yes.” The resolution source will be any official Spotify report about its total premium subscribers in Q2 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7963523907366828808554773592658103",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2036476092633171191445226407341897",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "86",
"liquidity": "499.67",
"tradevolume": "4320.48",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will EIP-1559 be implemented by July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-by-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "In response to trader inquiry, EIP-1559 being implemented on a testnet will not suffice for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". EIP-1559 must be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet.\n\nThis is a market on whether EIP-1559 will be implemented on Ethereum prior to the resolution date, July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the EIP-1559 is implemented prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.001446293627553380251908067425557885",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9985537063724466197480919325744421",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1625",
"liquidity": "671.12",
"tradevolume": "315407.21",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be indicted for a federal or state crime by November 15?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-federal-or-state-crime-by-november-15",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump will be indicted for a federal crime or state crime by November 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump is indicted for a federal or state crime, as confirmed by government sources (https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel; https://www.justice.gov/news; https://www.manhattanda.org/category/news/) or credible news reports of an indictment by the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08553808155227406297320078068788409",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9144619184477259370267992193121159",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "691",
"liquidity": "2009.92",
"tradevolume": "18643.79",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Harry Kane sign for Manchester City on or before August 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-harry-kane-sign-for-manchester-city-on-or-before-august-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Harry Kane will sign for Manchester City on or before August 31, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Harry Kane signs for Manchester City in the transfer window on or before August 31, or will resolve to “No” if Harry Kane does not sign with Manchester City on or before August 31. This market will also resolve to \"No\" if Harry Kane signs a contract extension with Tottenham Hotspur, or signs for another club other than Manchester City on or before August 31, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.593613382790431179323444090522783",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.406386617209568820676555909477217",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "55",
"liquidity": "963.92",
"tradevolume": "3081.95",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Caeleb Dressel win gold in the Men’s 100M freestyle at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-caleb-win-gold-in-the-mens-100m-freestyle-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Caeleb Dressel wins the gold Medal in the 100M Freestyle at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve after the Men's 100M Freestyle Final, currently scheduled for Wednesday, July 28, 2021, 10:37 PM ET, https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/swimming/event-schedule-men-s-100m-freestyle.htm. If no final is held before August 8, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "0",
"liquidity": "500.00",
"tradevolume": "0.00",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2021 Fide World Cup?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-magnus-carlsen-win-the-2021-fide-world-cup",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Magnus Carlsen will win the 2021 Fide World Cup, scheduled to take place from July 10, 2021 to August 8, 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Magnus Carlsen wins the 2021 Fide World Cup, and “No” otherwise. More information can be found here https://worldcup.fide.com/. This market will resolve once the winner for the event is known; if the winner is not known by December 31, 2021, then the market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5968975937602061675784724182981926",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4031024062397938324215275817018074",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "205",
"liquidity": "4653.83",
"tradevolume": "14668.03",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the floor price of CryptoPunks be below 19.5 ETH on August 10? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-floor-price-of-cryptopunks-be-below-195-eth-on-august-10",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether any CryptoPunk will be for sale for less than 19.5 ETH on August 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if on the check time August 10, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, there is a CryptoPunk on https://www.larvalabs.com/cryptopunks/forsale# which is listed as for sale for a price lower than 19.5 ETH and has been listed for at least 1 hour (as verified by the txn hash time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.291506358038562681041888458187933",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.708493641961437318958111541812067",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "63",
"liquidity": "21180.00",
"tradevolume": "6736.42",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a 2nd monkeypox case be reported in the US by August 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-2nd-monkeypox-case-be-reported-in-the-us-by-august-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether a second monkeypox case will be reported in the US by August 1. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a second monkeypox case reported in the US by August 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be any credible news articles about monkeypox cases in the US, as determined by the Markets Integrity Committee. At the time of this market’s inception, July 22, 2021, there has been 1 confirmed case in Texas. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07273790463675864908295916506212302",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.927262095363241350917040834937877",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "54",
"liquidity": "1000.22",
"tradevolume": "2829.77",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be more than 1K daily COVID-19 cases in Japan on August 27?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-1k-daily-covid-19-cases-in-japan-on-august-27",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be more than 1k daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan on August 27, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan, as reported by the World Health Organization (https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/jp). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Japan for the date of August 27 was more than 1,000, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source will be checked on August 28, 2021 12:00 PM ET. If data is not available, the resolution source will be checked 24 hours later, and so on until September 1, 2021 12:00 PM ET. If there is still no available data by then, the market will resolve to 50-50. If the WHO website is down at the time of the first check, market resolution will be delayed until the website is restored, or if it is not restored within 48 hours, this market will resolve to 50-50. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9331939571033225214732083652159167",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.06680604289667747852679163478408331",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "170",
"liquidity": "861.37",
"tradevolume": "9895.60",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris cast 13 or more tie-breaking votes in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kamala-harris-cast-13-or-more-tie-votes-in-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Kamala Harris will cast 13 or more tie-breaking votes in 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris casts 13 or more tie-breaking votes in 2021, and “No” otherwise. Tie-breaking votes will be considered if they are cast on or before 11:59 PM ET, December 31, 2021. The resolution source will be https://www.senate.gov/legislative/TieVotes.htm. If the link changes or the becomes unavailable, another credible source will be chosen by the MIC to resolve this market. In the event of ambiguity, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nUpdate: \"Tie votes\" has been updated to \"Tie-breaking votes\" to reflect the resolution source. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.663667282124694264857492543943099",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.336332717875305735142507456056901",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "136",
"liquidity": "3245.32",
"tradevolume": "4688.08",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "1.000088973656116238663173359766653",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "-0.00008897365611623866317335976665251678",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "4311",
"liquidity": "-131028328803.31",
"tradevolume": "882857.44",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will EIP-1559 be implemented live on Ethereum mainnet by 10 AM ET on August 5, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eip-1559-be-implemented-on-the-ethereum-mainnet-by-10am-aug5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether EIP-1559 will be implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, August 5, 2021, 10:00:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if EIP-1559 is implemented on the Ethereum mainnet prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise.\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarification: This market refers to the date on which the block number falls and EIP-1559 is actually live on mainnet. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4378795023832738913345838065673259",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5621204976167261086654161934326741",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "235",
"liquidity": "12245.01",
"tradevolume": "38099.99",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Snake Eyes or Old gross more domestically opening weekend?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-snake-eyes-or-old-gross-more-domestically-opening-weekend",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Snake Eyes” if Snake Eyes grosses more domestically than Old on opening weekend, or “Old” if Old grosses more domestically than Snake Eyes opening weekend. Opening weekend is defined as the first Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of a film’s release. The resolution sources will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2114291201/ and https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2097710593/ under \"Domestic Weekend.\" To resolve the market, the sources will be checked on July 27, 2021, 3 PM ET. If the box office sales data is based on a studio estimate rather than actual data, or if there is no data available, the sources will be checked every 24 hours until the actual data is available. If the actual data is still not available on the resolution source by August 2, 2021, 3 PM ET, then another credible source will chosen by the MIC and checked. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Snake Eyes",
"probability": "0.0006301712194032711394851177037965405",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Old",
"probability": "0.9993698287805967288605148822962035",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "102",
"liquidity": "20.03",
"tradevolume": "4507.05",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Snake Eyes, Old"
},
{
"title": "Will Nina Turner win the Democratic Nomination in the OH-11 special election?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-nina-turner-win-the-democratic-nomination-in-the-oh-11-special-election",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Nina Turner will win the Democratic Nomination in the OH-11 special election. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Nina Turner wins the Democratic Nomination in the OH-11 special election, and “No” otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.773268787539603413304484232913494",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.226731212460396586695515767086506",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "202",
"liquidity": "3023.32",
"tradevolume": "13396.76",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Partyround launch on the iOS App Store before September 1st, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-partyround-launch-on-the-ios-app-store-before-september-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Partyround will launch a functional iOS app on the Apple App Store by September 1st, 2021. The market will resolve to “Yes” if an official, functional Party Round app is available to download on the Apple App Store by September 1, 2021, and “No” otherwise. Functional means it must include functionality beyond a waitlist or sign up screen. If it is invite-only but is still functional, the market will resolve to \"Yes\". Testflight does not count. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3136597279588965432669392984200376",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6863402720411034567330607015799624",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "62",
"liquidity": "4163.32",
"tradevolume": "15454.07",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will China win 38 or more Gold Medals at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-china-win-38-or-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if China wins 38 or more Gold Medals at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Gold Medals in team events count as one medal (e.g. if the U.S. Men’s Basketball team wins Gold, that is one Gold medal). The resolution source for this market will be the Gold medal count, from an official Olympic source, e.g. https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/olympic-games/en/results/all-sports/medal-standings.htm. This market will resolve after the Closing Ceremony, currently scheduled for August 8, 2021, or earlier if the total has been reached before that date. If the Closing ceremonies are delayed beyond September 8, 2021, 12:00 PM ET or canceled, this market will resolve on the total Gold medal count as it stands on September 8, 2021, 12:00 PM ET.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4227927308971292021916256913894726",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5772072691028707978083743086105274",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "70",
"liquidity": "2247.89",
"tradevolume": "2845.71",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will there be more than 100 positive cases of COVID-19 among athletes at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-more-than-100-positive-cases-for-covid-19-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more 100 positive cases of COVID-19 among athletes at the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be the Olympics' official list of positive COVID-19 cases, currently available at https://olympics.com/tokyo-2020/en/notices/covid-19-positive-case-list (select the \"Covid-19 Positive Case List\" PDF). Specifically, a manual count will be done on the number of positive COVID-19 cases, where the date the case was reported (see “Date of positive case reported” column) is on or after July 23, 2021 (Opening Ceremony) and on or before August 8, 2021 (Closing Ceremony), and the person testing positive is an athlete (see the “Category” column, with cell values indicating “Athletes”). Note if the date of the Opening or Closing Ceremonies change, this market will still resolve on the number of positive cases among athletes between July 23, 2021 and August 8, 2021. This market will resolve on August 11, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, or any time earlier if the target number has been exceeded. If data covering the full range of dates is not available at the final check, the resolution source will be checked every 24 hours until August 18, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. If data is still not available at this time, this market will resolve 50-50. (Note if the current link to positive COVID-19 cases becomes unavailable, any official data source from the Olympics on positive COVID-19 cases will be used, so long as it contains the requisite information: positive COVID-19 cases, dates of the those cases, and whether those cases occurred within athletes.)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06814387467937043965828806857547841",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9318561253206295603417119314245216",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "175",
"liquidity": "1039.40",
"tradevolume": "6912.24",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will LeVar Burton be announced as the next permanent host of Jeopardy by August 15?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-levar-burton-be-announced-as-the-next-permanent-host-of-jeopardy-by-august-15",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether LeVar Burton will be announced as the permanent successor to Alex Trebek as the host of Jeopardy by August 15, 2021, 12 PM ET. The market will resolve to “Yes” if LeVar Burton is officially announced as the next permanent host of Jeopardy by the resolution date. If there are multiple permanent hosts announced, this market will resolve to “Yes” if Burton is one of them. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Official announcements will be any press releases, definitive statements, videos, or credible statements to the public or media on behalf of the team that produces the Jeopardy gameshow. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nUpdate: Permanent host means the next full time host of Jeopardy, selected as a replacement for Alex Trebek. This may be a contract to host for a certain number of seasons or indefinitely. This does not include guest hosting appearances.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1006078150377030972271626886313039",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8993921849622969027728373113686961",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "306",
"liquidity": "1413.88",
"tradevolume": "44219.86",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on September 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-september-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden will be President of the United States on September 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.951510723428063309185863512791547",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.04848927657193669081413648720845302",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1808",
"liquidity": "13618.73",
"tradevolume": "482144.78",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kanye West’s album DONDA be released by August 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kanye-wests-album-donda-be-released-by-august-7",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on when Kanye West’s album “Donda” will be released on schedule. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kanye West’s album Donda is available for download on Apple Music on or before August 7, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be Kanye West’s official Apple Music page, https://music.apple.com/us/artist/kanye-west/2715720. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5334183289848600168462358516081339",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4665816710151399831537641483918661",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "52",
"liquidity": "14393.19",
"tradevolume": "965.53",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by September 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-the-covid-vaccines-be-granted-full-fda-approval-by-september-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson Janssen COVID-19 vaccines receive full FDA approval on or before September 1, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be the FDA’s official list of approved vaccines, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states, as well as any official FDA announcements that any of the three listed vaccines has received full FDA approval. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "0",
"liquidity": "0.00",
"tradevolume": "0.00",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will any of the COVID vaccines be granted full FDA approval by December 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-the-covid-vaccines-be-granted-full-fda-approval-by-december-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson Janssen COVID-19 vaccines receive full FDA approval on or before December 1, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be the FDA’s official list of approved vaccines, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states, as well as any official FDA announcements that any of the three listed vaccines has received full FDA approval. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "0",
"liquidity": "0.00",
"tradevolume": "0.00",
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will more than 2.3 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before August 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-23-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-august-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether more than 2.3 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day on or after July 13, 2021 and on or before August 1, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 2.3 million for any day on or after July 13, 2021 and on or before August 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of August 1, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. If the target has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the days from July 13, 2021 to August 1, 2021 by August 15, 2021 the market will resolve to 50-50. Any revisions published to data for dates July 13, 2021 and onward prior to the release of data for August 1, 2021 will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05577973997633473409461990328495155",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9442202600236652659053800967150484",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "408",
"liquidity": "1921.57",
"tradevolume": "26922.28",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will the fully diluted market cap of dYdX's token be 1 week after it starts trading?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-fully-diluted-market-cap-of-d-yd-x-s-token-be-1-week-after-it-starts-trading",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a scalar market on what the fully diluted market cap of dy/dx’s token will be in USD 1 week after it begins being actively traded. The \"fully diluted market cap\" is determined by multiplying the price of the token by the total supply of tokens. The lower bound for this market is $0, and the upper bound is $4,000,000,000. The date by which the token is actively traded refers to the first date the token reaches over $10,000 in volume according to CoinGecko. The fully diluted market cap 1 week after this date, at 12:00 PM ET, will be used for this market’s resolution. For example, if the dy/dx token began actively trading on a Tuesday (in ET), the fully diluted market cap of the token would be checked at 12:00 PM ET the following Tuesday in order to resolve this market. If the CoinGecko website is unavailable at the time of this check, CoinMarketCap will be used instead. If both CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap are down, then another credible source will be chosen.\n\nIf dy/dx does not release a token by December 31, 2021, the market will resolve to $2,000,000,000.\n\nYou can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with dy/dx token’s fully diluted market cap value in USD. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Long",
"probability": "0.4520808936526043171297155459169126",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Short",
"probability": "0.5479191063473956828702844540830874",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "19",
"liquidity": "4620.05",
"tradevolume": "5610.70",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short"
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 419K for the week ending on July 24?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-419k-for-the-week-ending-on-july-24",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 419,000 for the week ending on Saturday, July 24, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 419,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on July 24, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 419,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on July 24, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, July 24, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, July 29, 2021, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If data is not available for the aforementioned dates by Wednesday, August 4, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3683890633933116929885761279482071",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6316109366066883070114238720517929",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "22",
"liquidity": "1039.99",
"tradevolume": "818.09",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kaz Kamwi be in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kaz-kamwi-win-top-female-on-love-island-uk-season-7",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Kaz Kamwi will be in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kaz Kamwi is in the winning couple on Love Island UK Season 7, and “No” otherwise. If for any reason the show ends without a winning couple, the market will resolve to “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2276037882447765541706668367081785",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7723962117552234458293331632918215",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "24",
"liquidity": "1009.05",
"tradevolume": "644.39",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will a vacancy for the US Supreme Court be announced by September 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-vacancy-for-the-us-supreme-court-be-announced-by-september-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether a vacancy for the US Supreme Court will be announced by September 1, 2021, 9:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a vacancy for the US Supreme Court is announced by the resolution date and “No” otherwise. If a Supreme Court Justice publicly announces that they will retire before the resolution date, with or without specifying when they will do so, the market will resolve to \"Yes.\" If a current Supreme Court Justice is no longer in office at any point prior to the resolution date, the market will resolve to “Yes.” The resolution source will be any credible news articles about the US Supreme Court Justices, and credible government sources which would indicate a vacancy (https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05205620193477588867314173904289805",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9479437980652241113268582609571019",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "718",
"liquidity": "1560.12",
"tradevolume": "46047.35",
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Facebook report having more than 3.6 billion Monthly Active People in Q2 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-facebook-report-having-more-than-36-billion-map-in-2q-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Facebook will report having more than 3.6 billion monthly active people (MAP) across their Family of apps, in Q2 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the Monthly Active People (MAP) across Facebook’s Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp), as reported by any official Facebook publication for Q2 2021 (https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Facebook reports a Family MAP that exceeds 3.60 billion. This market will resolve to “No” if Facebook reports a Family MAP that is less than or exactly equal to 3.60 billion, or if Facebook also does not report Family MAP statistics for Q2 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1084599873579915157453137398727378",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8915400126420084842546862601272622",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "322",
"liquidity": "3381.85",
"tradevolume": "120741.11",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will it be possible to buy a Tesla online in the US using Bitcoin before 2022?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-it-be-possible-to-buy-a-tesla-online-using-bitcoin-before-2022",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is possible to go to the official Tesla website, https://www.tesla.com/, and complete an online purchase for any Tesla vehicle using Bitcoin, from the United States (without having to use a VPN), before January 1, 2022, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3930364203261248664696747240837343",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6069635796738751335303252759162657",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "39",
"liquidity": "1342.45",
"tradevolume": "1589.57",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Novak Djokovic win a gold medal at the 2020 Olympics?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-a-gold-medal-at-the-2020-olympics",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Novak Djokovic wins a gold medal in the Tokyo 2020 Olympics. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If this athlete has not completed all their events and has also not been eliminated from meeting the criteria for this market to resolve to “Yes” (e.g. because events have been postponed) by September 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6602010202908952178080311851783003",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3397989797091047821919688148216997",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T20:53:18.932Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "36",
"liquidity": "1894.55",
"tradevolume": "942.17",
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5192307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4423076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
"probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
"probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:06.856Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green"
},
{
"title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.504950495049505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.49504950495049505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:11.279Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.6831683168316831,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.31683168316831684,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:15.842Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:21.416Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:25.972Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:29.516Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:34.286Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:38.249Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.9405940594059405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:41.454Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.7745098039215687,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.22549019607843138,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:47.084Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
"probability": 0.8495575221238937,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Curtis Sliwa",
"probability": 0.026548672566371678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Donovan",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Menchaca",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Loree Sutton",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paperboy Prince",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Fernando Mateo",
"probability": 0.008849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:53.089Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Curtis Sliwa, Andrew Yang, Shaun Donovan, Raymond McGuire, Carlos Menchaca, Scott Stringer, Loree Sutton, Maya Wiley, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
},
{
"title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:51:56.647Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:02.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:07.075Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:10.488Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.6237623762376238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.37623762376237624,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:13.841Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:18.899Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:22.188Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:28.161Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:32.101Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
"probability": 0.6101694915254237,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
"probability": 0.1440677966101695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
"probability": 0.11016949152542371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
"probability": 0.033898305084745756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
"probability": 0.008474576271186439,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:36.276Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Robert Habeck, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, Markus Söder, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.28571428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.22321428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
"probability": 0.07142857142857141,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
"probability": 0.053571428571428555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
"probability": 0.053571428571428555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
"probability": 0.04464285714285713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.035714285714285705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
"probability": 0.035714285714285705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
"probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
"probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
"probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
"probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
"probability": 0.017857142857142853,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
"probability": 0.017857142857142853,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:40.463Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jr., Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:45.653Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 05/02/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 05/02/2021 8:43 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This is a market on the election that determines the next elected Mayor of Boston, not a market on a preliminary or primary election. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
"probability": 0.5096153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
"probability": 0.38461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
"probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
"probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barros",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Santiago",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:51.125Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, A. Essaibi-George, Andrea Campbell, Marty Walsh, John Barros, Jon Santiago"
},
{
"title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:52:56.095Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:00.831Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:05.326Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:10.989Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Josh Mandel",
"probability": 0.3513513513513513,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
"probability": 0.25225225225225223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
"probability": 0.18918918918918917,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Moreno",
"probability": 0.06306306306306306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Gibbons",
"probability": 0.036036036036036036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill Johnson",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Pukita",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:14.261Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, Bernie Moreno, Mike Gibbons, Rob Portman, Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Steve Stivers, Brad Wenstrup, Mike Turner, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson, Mark Pukita"
},
{
"title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:18.265Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:23.773Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:29.804Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5490196078431373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.45098039215686275,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:34.913Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.08999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:38.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:42.340Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Alvin Bragg",
"probability": 0.9245283018867924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyrus Vance",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Florence",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tali Weinstein",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eliza Orlins",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Crotty",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Lang",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Quart",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:45.775Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Alvin Bragg, Cyrus Vance, Diana Florence, Tali Weinstein, Eliza Orlins, Liz Crotty, Lucy Lang, Dan Quart, Tahanie Aboushi"
},
{
"title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
"probability": 0.30999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
"probability": 0.2899999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
"probability": 0.14999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abiy Ahmed",
"probability": 0.059999999999999984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
"probability": 0.04999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
"probability": 0.039999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
"probability": 0.029999999999999992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
"probability": 0.029999999999999992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
"probability": 0.019999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Kagame",
"probability": 0.019999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:50.884Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Félix Tshisekedi, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Paul Kagame"
},
{
"title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.22999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:54.899Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "12 or fewer",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "17",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "19",
"probability": 0.09523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20",
"probability": 0.7047619047619047,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21",
"probability": 0.11428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23 or more",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:53:59.028Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "12 or fewer, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jonathan Kanter",
"probability": 0.8317757009345794,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Renata Hesse",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Deborah Feinstein",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Susan Davies",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dave Gelfand",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steven Sunshine",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Terrell McSweeny",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Leibowitz",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Sallet",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Juan Arteaga",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gigi Sohn",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Edward Smith",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Einer Elhauge",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Douglas Melamed",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karl Racine",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Kades",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alvaro Bedoya",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:02.542Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Jon Sallet, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed, Karl Racine, Michael Kades, Alvaro Bedoya"
},
{
"title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
"probability": 0.4857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.10476190476190476,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.09523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau",
"probability": 0.047619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
"probability": 0.03809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.03809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
"probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:08.643Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Jair Bolsonaro, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Justin Trudeau, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Tim Ryan",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emilia Sykes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Acton",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joyce Beatty",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nan Whaley",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:14.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Tim Ryan, Emilia Sykes, Amy Acton, Joyce Beatty, Nan Whaley"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "John Fetterman",
"probability": 0.6296296296296297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conor Lamb",
"probability": 0.23148148148148145,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
"probability": 0.05555555555555555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valerie Arkoosh",
"probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Madeleine Dean",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Sestak",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chrissy Houlahan",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharif Street",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:20.705Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Valerie Arkoosh, Madeleine Dean, Joe Sestak, Jim Kenney, Chrissy Houlahan, Sharif Street"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sean Parnell",
"probability": 0.5196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Bartos",
"probability": 0.29411764705882354,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carla Sands",
"probability": 0.10784313725490197,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathy Barnette",
"probability": 0.029411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Everett Stern",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ryan Costello",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guy Reschenthaler",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlie Dent",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:25.636Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Sean Parnell, Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands, Kathy Barnette, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Ryan Costello, Guy Reschenthaler, Charlie Dent"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5098039215686274,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.49019607843137253,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:30.696Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.6372549019607843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.3627450980392157,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:36.067Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:41.179Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Shalanda Young",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gene Sperling",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martha Coven",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nani Coloretti",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Bernstein",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heather Boushey",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann O'Leary",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neera Tanden",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Bianchi",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Jones",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Lu",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonal Shah",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thea Lee",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Bivens",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:47.259Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Gene Sperling, Martha Coven, Nani Coloretti, Jared Bernstein, Heather Boushey, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Sarah Bianchi, John Jones, Chris Lu, Sonal Shah, Thea Lee, Josh Bivens"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:51.902Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:55.472Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.10999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:54:59.574Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
"probability": 0.6697247706422018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrej Babiš",
"probability": 0.13761467889908255,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
"probability": 0.045871559633027525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.03669724770642201,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Rutte",
"probability": 0.027522935779816512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
"probability": 0.027522935779816512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mario Draghi",
"probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pedro Sánchez",
"probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Viktor Orbán",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:04.613Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Alexander Lukashenko, Emmanuel Macron, Mark Rutte, Boris Johnson, Mario Draghi, Pedro Sánchez, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Susan Wright",
"probability": 0.7090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jake Ellzey",
"probability": 0.21818181818181814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katrina Pierson",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sery Kim",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Harrison",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jana Sanchez",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lydia Bean",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shawn Lassiter",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Rodimer",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Wood",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:10.333Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jake Ellzey, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Brian Harrison, Jana Sanchez, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter, Dan Rodimer, Michael Wood"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Bruce Harrell",
"probability": 0.4727272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lorena González",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Colleen Echohawk",
"probability": 0.15454545454545454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessyn Farrell",
"probability": 0.027272727272727268,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenny Durkan",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lance Randall",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Donaldson",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Casey Sixkiller",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:13.693Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Bruce Harrell, Lorena González, Colleen Echohawk, Jessyn Farrell, Jenny Durkan, Lance Randall, Andrew Grant Houston, James Donaldson, Casey Sixkiller"
},
{
"title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nicholas Burns",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claire McCaskill",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rahm Emanuel",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Shambaugh",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Kritenbrink",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:18.684Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, Claire McCaskill, Charlene Barshefsky, Rahm Emanuel, David Shambaugh, Dan Kritenbrink"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gary Black",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kelvin King",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Perdue",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Buddy Carter",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kelly Loeffler",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Kemp",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoff Duncan",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Carr",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vernon Jones",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:23.408Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Herschel Walker, Gary Black, Kelvin King, David Perdue, Buddy Carter, Kelly Loeffler, Doug Collins, Brian Kemp, Geoff Duncan, Chris Carr, Vernon Jones"
},
{
"title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "New Hampshire",
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "South Carolina",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iowa",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:26.999Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa"
},
{
"title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:33.000Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Greitens",
"probability": 0.40178571428571425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Schmitt",
"probability": 0.2589285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Smith",
"probability": 0.08928571428571429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark McCloskey",
"probability": 0.08035714285714285,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vicky Hartzler",
"probability": 0.07142857142857142,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Billy Long",
"probability": 0.03571428571428571,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann Wagner",
"probability": 0.017857142857142856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Blunt",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Kehoe",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jay Ashcroft",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carl Edwards",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Brunner",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:36.223Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Mark McCloskey, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Ann Wagner, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Ted Budd",
"probability": 0.7428571428571429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat McCrory",
"probability": 0.19047619047619047,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Walker",
"probability": 0.019047619047619046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Burr",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lara Trump",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Forest",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Meadows",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Robinson",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:40.326Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Ted Budd, Pat McCrory, Mark Walker, Richard Burr, Lara Trump, Dan Forest, Mark Meadows, Mark Robinson"
},
{
"title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:44.920Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the \"Tie Votes\" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).\nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "3 votes",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5 votes",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7 votes",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8 or 9 votes",
"probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10 or 11 votes",
"probability": 0.14423076923076922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12 or 13 votes",
"probability": 0.14423076923076922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14 or 15 votes",
"probability": 0.16346153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16 or 17 votes",
"probability": 0.15384615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18 or 19 votes",
"probability": 0.13461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20 or more",
"probability": 0.19230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:49.032Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "3 votes, 4 or 5 votes, 6 or 7 votes, 8 or 9 votes, 10 or 11 votes, 12 or 13 votes, 14 or 15 votes, 16 or 17 votes, 18 or 19 votes, 20 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:55:54.572Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.\nThe 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. \nControl of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., \"delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.\nControl of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.\nShould the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.\nDetermination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Rep. House & Senate",
"probability": 0.3942307692307692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House, D Senate",
"probability": 0.2980769230769231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dem. House & Senate",
"probability": 0.22115384615384615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "D House, R Senate",
"probability": 0.08653846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:00.730Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Rep. House & Senate, R House, D Senate, Dem. House & Senate, D House, R Senate"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.37735849056603776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Letitia James",
"probability": 0.3113207547169811,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alessandra Biaggi",
"probability": 0.09433962264150944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jumaane Williams",
"probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathy Hochul",
"probability": 0.056603773584905655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bill de Blasio",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thomas DiNapoli",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Suozzi",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:05.556Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cuomo, Letitia James, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kathy Hochul, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Kirsten Gillibrand, Bill de Blasio, Andrew Yang, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:11.504Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Cheri Beasley",
"probability": 0.6822429906542056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Jackson",
"probability": 0.26168224299065423,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Erica Smith",
"probability": 0.02803738317757009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heath Shuler",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Lee Watkins",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:16.136Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Cheri Beasley, Jeff Jackson, Erica Smith, Heath Shuler, Richard Lee Watkins"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.\nCandidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be \"Independent.\"\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.8137254901960784,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Independent",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:21.452Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Independent, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
"probability": 0.6818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shontel Brown",
"probability": 0.2636363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barnes Jr.",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bryan Flannery",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Johnson",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tariq Shabazz",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shirley Smith",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dennis Kucinich",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:26.788Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Nina Turner, Shontel Brown, John Barnes Jr., Bryan Flannery, Jeff Johnson, Tariq Shabazz, Shirley Smith, Dennis Kucinich"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mandela Barnes",
"probability": 0.6504854368932039,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Godlewski",
"probability": 0.1553398058252427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alex Lasry",
"probability": 0.1359223300970874,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron Kind",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Nelson",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Larson",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steven Olikara",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gillian Battino",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:32.768Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Mandela Barnes, Sarah Godlewski, Alex Lasry, Ron Kind, Tom Nelson, Chris Larson, Steven Olikara, Gillian Battino"
},
{
"title": "Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.020000000000000018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:37.308Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mo Brooks",
"probability": 0.6605504587155963,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katie Britt",
"probability": 0.2935779816513761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lynda Blanchard",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Shelby",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Merrill",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Moore",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Sessions",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessica Taylor",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:42.483Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Mo Brooks, Katie Britt, Lynda Blanchard, Richard Shelby, John Merrill, Roy Moore, Jeff Sessions, Jessica Taylor"
},
{
"title": "Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:46.432Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Chuck Grassley",
"probability": 0.6634615384615384,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat Grassley",
"probability": 0.16346153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ashley Hinson",
"probability": 0.13461538461538464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Whitaker",
"probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Carlin",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:50.024Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Ashley Hinson, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Ron Johnson",
"probability": 0.5048543689320388,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Gallagher",
"probability": 0.36893203883495146,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kevin Nicholson",
"probability": 0.07766990291262135,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Steil",
"probability": 0.029126213592233007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Walker",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:55.696Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil, Scott Walker"
},
{
"title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:56:59.200Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Georgia.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Brian Kemp",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vernon Jones",
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ames Barnett",
"probability": 0.0857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
"probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marjorie Greene",
"probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:04.349Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Brian Kemp, Vernon Jones, Ames Barnett, Herschel Walker, Doug Collins, Marjorie Greene"
},
{
"title": "Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Canada holds national elections to the federal House of Commons before the End Date listed below. One or more by-elections to individual seats that may fall vacant shall not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes. National elections that may be called in 2021 but that will not take place until after the End Date will likewise not be sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.08999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:10.479Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.8811881188118812,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.1188118811881188,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:16.833Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for Secretary of State.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jody Hice",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Raffensperger",
"probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Belle Isle",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:21.784Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Jody Hice, Brad Raffensperger, David Belle Isle"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lucas Kunce",
"probability": 0.3584905660377358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jay Nixon",
"probability": 0.23584905660377356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Quinton Lucas",
"probability": 0.20754716981132074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Sifton",
"probability": 0.16037735849056603,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Koster",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claire McCaskill",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Williams",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:27.243Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lucas Kunce, Jay Nixon, Quinton Lucas, Scott Sifton, Chris Koster, Claire McCaskill, Brian Williams"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.8823529411764706,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.11764705882352941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:30.636Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the time of launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is re-elected to that position by a Plenary Session of the Party's 20th Central Committee at any time before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.07999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:36.388Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Hu Chunhua, a member of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo at the time of the launch of this market on April 5, 2021, is elected to a position on the Party's Politburo Standing Committee by a Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 10:59 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:40.668Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlie Crist",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Fried",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Val Demings",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:44.792Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Val Demings"
},
{
"title": "Who will be the governor of California on Dec. 31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7214/Who-will-be-the-governor-of-California-on-Dec-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, on the End Date listed below, the individual who holds the office of Governor of the State of California.\nShould, on the End Date, the Lieutenant Governor act as Governor during the impeachment, absence from the State, or other temporary disability of the Governor, the contract identifying the Governor shall nonetheless resolve to Yes. Should, on the End Date, the Lieutenant Governor act as Governor due to the failure of a Governor-elect to take office, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 8:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0.7777777777777777,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Elder",
"probability": 0.10185185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kevin Paffrath",
"probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kevin Faulconer",
"probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Caitlyn Jenner",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Cox",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Ose",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Grenell",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eleni Kounalakis",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kevin Kiley",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:49.091Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Gavin Newsom, Larry Elder, Kevin Paffrath, Kevin Faulconer, Caitlyn Jenner, John Cox, Doug Ose, Richard Grenell, Eleni Kounalakis, Kevin Kiley"
},
{
"title": "Will Matt Gaetz sit on the House Judiciary Committee on Sept. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7216/Will-Matt-Gaetz-sit-on-the-House-Judiciary-Committee-on-Sept-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on the Judiciary upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.07999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:53.224Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Automatic Voter Registration become law in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7217/Will-Automatic-Voter-Registration-become-law-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, before the End Date listed below, federal legislation requiring states to establish and operate a system of automatic voter registration shall become law.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:57:58.396Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Arizona Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mark Brnovich",
"probability": 0.44545454545454544,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Blake Masters",
"probability": 0.3727272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andy Biggs",
"probability": 0.06363636363636364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mick McGuire",
"probability": 0.03636363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Ducey",
"probability": 0.01818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kelli Ward",
"probability": 0.01818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Gosar",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kirk Adams",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kimberly Yee",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martha McSally",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Lamon",
"probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:03.186Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Brnovich, Blake Masters, Andy Biggs, Mick McGuire, Doug Ducey, Kelli Ward, Paul Gosar, Kirk Adams, Kimberly Yee, Martha McSally, Jim Lamon"
},
{
"title": "How many refugees will Biden authorize to be admitted in the next fiscal year?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7233/How-many-refugees-will-Biden-authorize-to-be-admitted-in-the-next-fiscal-year",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of refugees that President Biden authorizes for admission to the United States in the first presidential determination on refugee admissions for the fiscal year 2022. The actual number of refugees admitted during the fiscal year shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "15,000 or fewer",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15,001 to 27,000",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27,001 to 39,000",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "39,001 to 51,000",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51,001 to 62,499",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62,500 or more",
"probability": 0.9519230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:07.152Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "15,000 or fewer, 15,001 to 27,000, 27,001 to 39,000, 39,001 to 51,000, 51,001 to 62,499, 62,500 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will be prime minister of Israel on Dec. 31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7234/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Prime Minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Naftali Bennett",
"probability": 0.8598130841121495,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
"probability": 0.037383177570093455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benny Gantz",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gideon Sa'ar",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yair Lapid",
"probability": 0.018691588785046728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Avigdor Lieberman",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Aryeh Deri",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Merav Michaeli",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Moshe Gafni",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ayelet Shaked",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:11.401Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Naftali Bennett, Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa'ar, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, Aryeh Deri, Merav Michaeli, Moshe Gafni, Ayelet Shaked"
},
{
"title": "What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7237/What-will-be-the-corporate-tax-rate-for-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the marginal federal tax rate applicable to the highest bracket of regular corporate income for the 2022 tax year in any federal legislation that may be enacted by the End Date. In the event that no such legislation is enacted by the End Date, the contract “21% or lower” shall resolve to Yes. In the event, that more than one such bill is enacted by the End Date, resolution of this market shall be based on the provisions of the latest law enacted.\nEnactment refers to presidential signature of passed legislation, congressional override of a presidential veto, or other means by which qualifying legislation becomes public law.\nTax rates shall be rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point for the purposes of resolving this market.\nAny law regarding the rate of corporate taxation for 2022 that may be enacted after the End Date shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "21% or lower",
"probability": 0.4059405940594059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "21.1% to 24.5%",
"probability": 0.15841584158415842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24.6% to 27.9%",
"probability": 0.39603960396039606,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28% or higher",
"probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:16.569Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "21% or lower, 21.1% to 24.5%, 24.6% to 27.9%, 28% or higher"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Greg Abbott",
"probability": 0.794392523364486,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Don Huffines",
"probability": 0.08411214953271028,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew McConaughey",
"probability": 0.04672897196261682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Allen West",
"probability": 0.02803738317757009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chad Prather",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Straus",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George P. Bush",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Patrick",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:21.957Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Greg Abbott, Don Huffines, Matthew McConaughey, Allen West, Chad Prather, Dan Crenshaw, Joe Straus, George P. Bush, Dan Patrick"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Beto O'Rourke",
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew McConaughey",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joaquin Castro",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julián Castro",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wendy Davis",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:28.160Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Beto O'Rourke, Matthew McConaughey, Joaquin Castro, Julián Castro, Wendy Davis"
},
{
"title": "Will Matt Gaetz resign before Sept.1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7247/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-before-Sept1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigns from, and ceases to hold, his seat in the House of Representatives before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 9/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day]\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:31.912Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo resign before Sept. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7249/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-Sept-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 9/1/2021 12:00 AM (ET) [beginning of the day]\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:37.006Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on Sept. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7251/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-Sept-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:40.230Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Nevada Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Adam Laxalt",
"probability": 0.6851851851851851,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Amodei",
"probability": 0.10185185185185185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Kieckhefer",
"probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Hutchison",
"probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Sandoval",
"probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heidi Gansert",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jill Tolles",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:44.616Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Adam Laxalt, Mark Amodei, Ben Kieckhefer, Mark Hutchison, Brian Sandoval, Heidi Gansert, Jill Tolles"
},
{
"title": "How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number of individuals who hold a seat in the U.S. Senate on 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022 and are re-elected to that same seat in the 2022 general election (including any runoff elections, if necessary).\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "23 or fewer",
"probability": 0.13725490196078433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
"probability": 0.1764705882352941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
"probability": 0.23529411764705882,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
"probability": 0.16666666666666669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
"probability": 0.11764705882352941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:49.664Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "23 or fewer, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Charlie Baker",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maura Healey",
"probability": 0.37735849056603776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karyn Polito",
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonia Chang-Díaz",
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Danielle Allen",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoff Diehl",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Downing",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ayanna Pressley",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Kennedy III",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jay Gonzalez",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:54.294Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Charlie Baker, Maura Healey, Karyn Polito, Sonia Chang-Díaz, Danielle Allen, Geoff Diehl, Benjamin Downing, Ayanna Pressley, Joe Kennedy III, Jay Gonzalez"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 New Hampshire Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Chris Sununu",
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kelly Ayotte",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Bolduc",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:58:59.980Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Chris Sununu, Kelly Ayotte, Donald Bolduc"
},
{
"title": "Who will be the Republican nominee in the OH-15 special election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7259/Who-will-be-the-Republican-nominee-in-the-OH-15-special-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Republican nominee in the 2021 special election in Ohio's 15th congressional district.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mike Carey",
"probability": 0.8348623853211009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron Hood",
"probability": 0.06422018348623854,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bob Peterson",
"probability": 0.027522935779816512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff LaRe",
"probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Stewart",
"probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Fix",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stephanie Kunze",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Schaffer",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Edmonds",
"probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:03.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Mike Carey, Ron Hood, Bob Peterson, Jeff LaRe, Brian Stewart, Jeff Fix, Stephanie Kunze, Tim Schaffer, Ruth Edmonds"
},
{
"title": "Who will finish first in the 2021 mayoral primary in Cleveland?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7261/Who-will-finish-first-in-the-2021-mayoral-primary-in-Cleveland",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the most votes in the 2021 mayoral primary election in Cleveland, Ohio.\nShould one or more candidates tie for the most number of votes, this market shall resolve in favor of the candidate ranked first in last name alphabetical order amongst those so tied.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Dennis Kucinich",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zack Reed",
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Basheer Jones",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sandra Williams",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kevin Kelley",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Bibb",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Blaine Griffin",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:08.220Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Dennis Kucinich, Zack Reed, Basheer Jones, Sandra Williams, Kevin Kelley, Justin Bibb, Blaine Griffin"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will resolve to No, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:12.352Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mike DeWine",
"probability": 0.6226415094339622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
"probability": 0.24528301886792453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
"probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Blystone",
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adam Rodgers",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dave Yost",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:16.365Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Mike DeWine, Jim Renacci, Warren Davidson, Jon Husted, Joe Blystone, Jim Jordan, Mary Taylor, Adam Rodgers, Dave Yost"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Ohio Governor. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nan Whaley",
"probability": 0.7821782178217822,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Cranley",
"probability": 0.16831683168316833,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emilia Sykes",
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Pepper",
"probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:21.347Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Nan Whaley, John Cranley, Emilia Sykes, David Pepper"
},
{
"title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if Sen. Lisa Murkowski is the winner of the 2022 general election for United States Senator from Alaska. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:25.003Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected Atlanta mayor in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7275/Who-will-be-elected-Atlanta-mayor-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Atlanta, Georgia in the 2021 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kasim Reed",
"probability": 0.6574074074074073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Felicia Moore",
"probability": 0.18518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andre Dickens",
"probability": 0.05555555555555555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Norwood",
"probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharon Gay",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keisha Bottoms",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alex Barrella",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Carter",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cathy Woolard",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Koonin",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Antonio Brown",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:29.552Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Kasim Reed, Felicia Moore, Andre Dickens, Mary Norwood, Sharon Gay, Keisha Bottoms, Alex Barrella, Jason Carter, Cathy Woolard, Steve Koonin, Antonio Brown"
},
{
"title": "Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7286/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve as Yes if any individual is confirmed to the role of Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the United States Senate subsequent to the launch of this market on May 20, 2021, but before the End Date listed below. Any nomination that does not result in a confirmation shall have no effect on the outcome of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, \"Justice\" means either a Chief Justice or an Associate Justice.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:35.445Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator from Florida.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Val Demings",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stephanie Murphy",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alan Grayson",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:40.223Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Val Demings, Stephanie Murphy, Alan Grayson"
},
{
"title": "Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before July 31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7306/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-July-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.\nA vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:43.891Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lee Zeldin",
"probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Giuliani",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Astorino",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Carpinelli",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Pataki",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Gibson",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:47.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lee Zeldin, Andrew Giuliani, Rob Astorino, Mike Carpinelli, John Catsimatidis, George Pataki, Chris Gibson"
},
{
"title": "How many votes to confirm David Chipman as ATF director by July 30?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7311/How-many-votes-to-confirm-David-Chipman-as-ATF-director-by-July-30",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of David Chipman (the \"Nominee\") to the position of Director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (the \"Office\"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. \nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.9158878504672896,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or more",
"probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:53.013Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Attorney General of Texas.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Ken Paxton",
"probability": 0.7407407407407407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George P. Bush",
"probability": 0.14814814814814814,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eva Guzman",
"probability": 0.1111111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T14:59:59.099Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Ken Paxton, George P. Bush, Eva Guzman"
},
{
"title": "Will the Senate use reconciliation by August 6?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7314/Will-the-Senate-use-reconciliation-by-August-6",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 06/07/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on June 3, 2021, but in a vote that concludes prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate passes a bill through the reconciliation process established by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 06/07/2021 10:48 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The subject of this market is a “bill”, not a resolution.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:05.008Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many successful filibusters will there be in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7324/How-many-successful-filibusters-will-there-be-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of rejected motions to invoke cloture in the U.S. Senate in 2021. \nThe total number of rejected motions to invoke cloture can be found by subtracting the number of times that cloture is invoked from the number of votes on cloture (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/legislative/cloture/clotureCounts.htm).\nThe outcome of a vote to invoke cloture that begins in 2021 and finishes in 2022 will be counted towards the resolution of this market. \nShould that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "3 or fewer",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8 or 9",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10 or 11",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12 or 13",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14 or 15",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16 or 17",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18 or 19",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20 or more",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:09.499Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "3 or fewer, 4 or 5, 6 or 7, 8 or 9, 10 or 11, 12 or 13, 14 or 15, 16 or 17, 18 or 19, 20 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to the contract that identifies the individual who is the first-elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress.\nAn individual elected, appointed, acting as, and/or sworn in as Speaker Pro Tempore will be insufficient to cause the question listing that individual to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kevin McCarthy",
"probability": 0.5225225225225224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hakeem Jeffries",
"probability": 0.16216216216216214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nancy Pelosi",
"probability": 0.1081081081081081,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.04504504504504504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Scalise",
"probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Clyburn",
"probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steny Hoyer",
"probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adam Schiff",
"probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katherine Clark",
"probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elise Stefanik",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cathy McM. Rodgers",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Bass",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cheri Bustos",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:15.659Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Kevin McCarthy, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, Steve Scalise, James Clyburn, Steny Hoyer, Adam Schiff, Katherine Clark, Elise Stefanik, Cathy McM. Rodgers, Karen Bass, Jim Jordan, Cheri Bustos, A. Ocasio-Cortez"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that former President Donald Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in either the 2022 Republican primary election or the general election for any seat in the United States House of Representatives. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:20.312Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Idaho.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Brad Little",
"probability": 0.6666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Janice McGeachin",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ammon Bundy",
"probability": 0.037037037037037035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raúl Labrador",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Humphreys",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Cotton",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Russ Fulcher",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:24.364Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ammon Bundy, Raúl Labrador, Ed Humphreys, Jeff Cotton, Russ Fulcher"
},
{
"title": "Will Ilhan Omar sit on the House Foreign Affairs Committee on July 31?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7332/Will-Ilhan-Omar-sit-on-the-House-Foreign-Affairs-Committee-on-July-31",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/31/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.010000000000000009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:27.960Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many votes to confirm Rohit Chopra as CFPB Director by July 30?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7341/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Rohit-Chopra-as-CFPB-Director-by-July-30",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rohit Chopra to the position of Director of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Chopra to the position of Director of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Chopra be confirmed to position of Director of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Chopra to the position of Director of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.898148148148148,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or more",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:32.373Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Josh Shapiro",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Torsella",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sara Innamorato",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:36.124Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Josh Shapiro, Joe Torsella, Sara Innamorato, Jim Kenney"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Republican nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Lou Barletta",
"probability": 0.4716981132075471,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Mastriano",
"probability": 0.3018867924528302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "William McSwain",
"probability": 0.12264150943396226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Meuser",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Gale",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlie Gerow",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Martin",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Kelly",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Laughlin",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ryan Aument",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Cawley",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Fitzpatrick",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Monn",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Richey",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nche Zama",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:42.128Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lou Barletta, Doug Mastriano, William McSwain, Dan Meuser, Joe Gale, Charlie Gerow, Scott Martin, Mike Kelly, Dan Laughlin, Ryan Aument, Jim Cawley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Donald Trump Jr., Jason Monn, Jason Richey, Nche Zama"
},
{
"title": "How many VA House seats will Democrats win in the 2021 election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7349/How-many-VA-House-seats-will-Democrats-win-in-the-2021-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number or range of seats won by candidates who have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic Party in the 2021 general election for the Virginia House of Delegates. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "43 or fewer",
"probability": 0.036036036036036036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "44 or 45",
"probability": 0.036036036036036036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "46 or 47",
"probability": 0.1081081081081081,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "48 or 49",
"probability": 0.23423423423423423,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 or 51",
"probability": 0.2162162162162162,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52 or 53",
"probability": 0.19819819819819817,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54 or 55",
"probability": 0.09009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56 or 57",
"probability": 0.04504504504504504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or 59",
"probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60 or more",
"probability": 0.018018018018018018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:46.329Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "43 or fewer, 44 or 45, 46 or 47, 48 or 49, 50 or 51, 52 or 53, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or more"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of Chile in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7350/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Chile-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Chile.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2021, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2021 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2021.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Gabriel Boric",
"probability": 0.48648648648648646,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sebastián Sichel",
"probability": 0.29729729729729726,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yasna Provoste",
"probability": 0.11711711711711711,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paula Narváez",
"probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Jadue",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joaquín Lavín",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ignacio Briones",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mario Desbordes",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pamela Jiles",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Maldonado",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "M. Enríquez-Ominami",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrés Velasco",
"probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:52.009Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Gabriel Boric, Sebastián Sichel, Yasna Provoste, Paula Narváez, Daniel Jadue, Joaquín Lavín, Ignacio Briones, Mario Desbordes, Pamela Jiles, Carlos Maldonado, M. Enríquez-Ominami, Andrés Velasco"
},
{
"title": "Will Sweden hold national elections by Sept. 15?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7356/Will-Sweden-hold-national-elections-by-Sept-15",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sweden holds national general elections by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/15/2021 5:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:00:58.035Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Brazil.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Luiz Lula da Silva",
"probability": 0.6666666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
"probability": 0.21568627450980393,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ciro Gomes",
"probability": 0.029411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "João Doria",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Fernando Haddad",
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Flávio Dino",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guilherme Boulos",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marina Silva",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "João Amoêdo",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sergio Moro",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:01.907Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Luiz Lula da Silva, Jair Bolsonaro, Ciro Gomes, João Doria, Fernando Haddad, Flávio Dino, Guilherme Boulos, Marina Silva, João Amoêdo, Sergio Moro"
},
{
"title": "Will Suga Yoshihide be prime minister of Japan on Sept. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7359/Will-Suga-Yoshihide-be-prime-minister-of-Japan-on-Sept-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if Yoshihide Suga is the prime minister of Japan on the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/31/2021 11:00 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.030000000000000027,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:07.874Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in France.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5130434782608695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.19130434782608693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.13913043478260867,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon ",
"probability": 0.026086956521739126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.026086956521739126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.017391304347826084,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Philippe Poutou",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Fabien Roussel",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michel Barnier",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Baroin",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "N. Dupont-Aignan",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Asselineau",
"probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:13.326Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Emmanuel Macron, Xavier Bertrand, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon , Valérie Pécresse, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot, Nathalie Arthaud, Philippe Poutou, Fabien Roussel, Arnaud Montebourg, Michel Barnier, François Baroin, N. Dupont-Aignan, François Asselineau"
},
{
"title": "Enough signatures for a vote on recall of LA County DA George Gascón?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7361/Enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-LA-County-DA-George-Gascón",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, Los Angeles County officials or any other state or local elections body officially confirms that a sufficient number of signatures were submitted by proponents of the ongoing petition to trigger a recall election of Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón.\nFor purposes of this market, the ongoing petition will refer only to the petition being circulated by Victims of Violent Crime for the Recall of District Attorney Gascon.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:16.832Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, prior to the End Date listed below, marijuana is removed from the list of Class One Controlled Substances regulated by the Controlled Substances Act. \nThe legalization, decriminalization, or criminalization of marijuana under the laws of any state shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/20/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:21.901Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many federal judges will be confirmed by Aug. 6?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7365/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Aug-6",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of federal judges who will have been confirmed by the United States Senate to their positions in the federal judiciary between the beginning of the 117th Congress and the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the federal judiciary is understood to consist of the following five types of courts –\nUnited States District Courts (including territorial courts), United States Courts of Appeals, the United States Court of Federal Claims, the United States Court of International Claims, and the Supreme Court of the United States.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but has not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "8 or fewer",
"probability": 0.18181818181818182,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "9",
"probability": 0.3090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10",
"probability": 0.1636363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "11",
"probability": 0.13636363636363635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12",
"probability": 0.11818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "13",
"probability": 0.054545454545454536,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14",
"probability": 0.01818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "15 or more",
"probability": 0.01818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:27.724Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "8 or fewer, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will Jim Jordan be appointed to the January 6 Select Committee by Aug. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7369/Will-Jim-Jordan-be-appointed-to-the-January-6-Select-Committee-by-Aug-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is officially appointed to the House select committee to investigate the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol, by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:32.847Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in Colombia.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Gustavo Petro",
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sergio Fajardo",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alejandro Char",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marta Lucía Ramírez",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Federico Gutiérrez",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Humberto de la Calle",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tomás Uribe",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:36.931Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Gustavo Petro, Sergio Fajardo, Alejandro Char, Marta Lucía Ramírez, Federico Gutiérrez, Humberto de la Calle, Tomás Uribe"
},
{
"title": "How many votes to confirm Margaret Strickland to the District Ct. of NM by 8/6?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7376/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Margaret-Strickland-to-the-District-Ct-of-NM-by-8-6",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Margaret Strickland (the \"Nominee\") to be a judge on the United States District Court for the District of New Mexico (the \"Office\"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"66 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 or 51",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52 or 53",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54 or 55",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56 or 57",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or 59",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60 or 61",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 or 63",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "64 or 65",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66 or more",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:42.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50 or 51, 52 or 53, 54 or 55, 56 or 57, 58 or 59, 60 or 61, 62 or 63, 64 or 65, 66 or more"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4059405940594059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:46.824Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:50.431Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Will Tracy Stone-Manning be confirmed as BLM Director by Oct. 8?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7379/Will-Tracy-Stone-Manning-be-confirmed-as-BLM-Director-by-Oct-8",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Tracy Stone-Manning is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Director of the Bureau of Land Management by the End Date listed below.\nThis market shall resolve to No in the event that a withdrawal of Tracy Stone-Manning's nomination is formally communicated to the United States Senate. \nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 10/08/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:01:56.351Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.5576923076923076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4423076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:01.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.6274509803921569,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.37254901960784315,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:07.469Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:11.877Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:17.923Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.09900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:23.424Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.7115384615384615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.28846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:27.553Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines.\nIf no presidential election is held in 2022, all contracts shall resolve as No. For purposes of resolving this market, a presidential election held in 2022 shall include the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner, even if such runoff occurs after 2022.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sara Duterte-Carpio",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Manny Pacquiao",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Leni Robredo",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Antonio Trillanes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Panfilo Lacson",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sonny Angara",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alan Peter Cayetano",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:31.172Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Sara Duterte-Carpio, Manny Pacquiao, Leni Robredo, Antonio Trillanes, Panfilo Lacson, Sonny Angara, Alan Peter Cayetano"
},
{
"title": "Will Texas legislature pass an elections bill by Aug. 9?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7393/Will-Texas-legislature-pass-an-elections-bill-by-Aug-9",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that both chambers of the Texas legislature shall, subsequent to the launch of this market on July 13, 2021, and before the End Date below, pass legislation that modifies requirements or procedures for voting or elections in Texas. \nCommittee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/09/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:35.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that the candidate is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed representation, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.7722772277227723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.22772277227722773,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:39.490Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Democratic, Republican"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected Buffalo, NY mayor in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7395/Who-will-be-elected-Buffalo,-NY-mayor-in-2021",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of Buffalo, New York in the 2021 general election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "India Walton",
"probability": 0.8640776699029126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Byron Brown",
"probability": 0.1359223300970874,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:44.730Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "India Walton, Byron Brown"
},
{
"title": "Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual next confirmed by the Senate to the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System following launch of this market on July 16, 2021.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jerome Powell",
"probability": 0.7864077669902912,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lael Brainard",
"probability": 0.11650485436893203,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raphael Bostic",
"probability": 0.04854368932038835,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roger Ferguson",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "William Spriggs",
"probability": 0.019417475728155338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sarah Bloom Raskin",
"probability": 0.009708737864077669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:48.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard, Raphael Bostic, Roger Ferguson, William Spriggs, Sarah Bloom Raskin"
},
{
"title": "How many votes to confirm Eunice Lee to the Second Circuit by Oct. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7401/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Eunice-Lee-to-the-Second-Circuit-by-Oct-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Eunice Lee (the \"Nominee\") to be a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit (the \"Office\"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 10/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.06140350877192982,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50",
"probability": 0.14912280701754385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
"probability": 0.2982456140350877,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
"probability": 0.31578947368421045,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
"probability": 0.07894736842105261,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54",
"probability": 0.026315789473684206,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55",
"probability": 0.017543859649122806,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56",
"probability": 0.017543859649122806,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57",
"probability": 0.008771929824561403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or more",
"probability": 0.026315789473684206,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:54.160Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
},
{
"title": "How many votes to confirm Veronica Rossman to the Tenth Cir. by Oct. 1?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7403/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Veronica-Rossman-to-the-Tenth-Cir-by-Oct-1",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Veronica Rossman (the \"Nominee\") to be a judge on the United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit (the \"Office\"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 10/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
"probability": 0.0660377358490566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50",
"probability": 0.056603773584905655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
"probability": 0.10377358490566037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
"probability": 0.27358490566037735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
"probability": 0.27358490566037735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54",
"probability": 0.11320754716981131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55",
"probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57",
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or more",
"probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:02:58.028Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
},
{
"title": "What will be the margin in the TX-06 House special election runoff?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7406/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-TX-06-House-special-election-runoff",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes officially reported for ballot-listed candidates, in the 2021 special election runoff for Representative in Congress from Texas's Sixth District. \nPercentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for ballot-listed candidates. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.\nShould the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 4%",
"probability": 0.23008849557522124,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4% to 6%",
"probability": 0.15929203539823006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6% to 8%",
"probability": 0.12389380530973451,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8% to 10%",
"probability": 0.10619469026548671,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10% to 12%",
"probability": 0.09734513274336282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12% to 14%",
"probability": 0.08849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14% to 16%",
"probability": 0.04424778761061947,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16% to 18%",
"probability": 0.035398230088495575,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18% to 20%",
"probability": 0.026548672566371678,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20% or more",
"probability": 0.08849557522123894,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:02.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Under 4%, 4% to 6%, 6% to 8%, 8% to 10%, 10% to 12%, 12% to 14%, 14% to 16%, 16% to 18%, 18% to 20%, 20% or more"
},
{
"title": "How many votes in the Senate for cloture on the infrastructure deal by July 30?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7407/How-many-votes-in-the-Senate-for-cloture-on-the-infrastructure-deal-by-July-30",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Senate who vote in favor of a motion to invoke cloture on a qualifying infrastructure bill, subsequent to the launch of this market on July 22, 2021 and by the End Date listed below. This market will be resolved based on the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. For purposes of this market, a qualifying motion shall include a motion to invoke cloture on a motion to proceed to consider such bill.\nFor purposes of this market, a qualifying infrastructure bill will be any bill that seeks to implement, in whole or in part, the bipartisan infrastructure framework, or any bill described by the Majority Leader as a shell or other other mechanism that will act as the legislative vehicle for the bipartisan infrastructure framework. \nShould more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the motion via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the motion via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"68 or more\" shall resolve as Yes. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "58 or fewer",
"probability": 0.6862745098039215,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "59",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60",
"probability": 0.08823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61",
"probability": 0.049019607843137254,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62",
"probability": 0.0392156862745098,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63",
"probability": 0.029411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "64",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 or more",
"probability": 0.058823529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:06.938Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "58 or fewer, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68 or more"
},
{
"title": "What will Biden's 538 job approval index be for July 27?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7408/What-will-Biden's-538-job-approval-index-be-for-July-27",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number or range of President Biden's FiveThirtyEight average job approval index for July 27 at the End Date listed below. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"How popular/unpopular is Joe Biden?\", available upon launch of this market at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, calculated using \"all polls\", as displayed on the graph for July 27 at the End Date listed below. \nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/28/2021 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "51.0% or lower",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51.1% to 51.3%",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51.4% to 51.6%",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51.7% to 51.9%",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.0% to 52.2%",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.3% to 52.5%",
"probability": 0.13888888888888887,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.6% to 52.8%",
"probability": 0.787037037037037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.9% to 53.1%",
"probability": 0.018518518518518517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53.2% or higher",
"probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:10.456Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "51.0% or lower, 51.1% to 51.3%, 51.4% to 51.6%, 51.7% to 51.9%, 52.0% to 52.2%, 52.3% to 52.5%, 52.6% to 52.8%, 52.9% to 53.1%, 53.2% or higher"
},
{
"title": "What will Biden's RCP job approval index be for July 28?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7409/What-will-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-index-be-for-July-28",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the number or range of President Biden's average RealClearPolitics job approval index for July 28, as rounded to the first decimal. The official approval rating will be drawn from the polling index graph entitled \"President Biden Job Approval\", available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html, as displayed for July 28 at the End Date listed below. \nThe graph below the list of individual polls at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html displays the RCP Poll Average for President Biden's Job Approval for each day. For purposes of resolving this market, this graph will determine President Biden's average job approval index for July 28.\nShould that source be unavailable for the day in question at that time, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 07/29/2021 10:00 AM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "51.3% or lower",
"probability": 0.017857142857142856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51.4% to 51.6%",
"probability": 0.044642857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51.7% to 51.9%",
"probability": 0.2857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.0% to 52.2%",
"probability": 0.40178571428571425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.3% to 52.5%",
"probability": 0.15178571428571427,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.6% to 52.8%",
"probability": 0.0625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52.9% to 53.1%",
"probability": 0.017857142857142856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53.2% to 53.4%",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53.5% or higher",
"probability": 0.008928571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:14.673Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "51.3% or lower, 51.4% to 51.6%, 51.7% to 51.9%, 52.0% to 52.2%, 52.3% to 52.5%, 52.6% to 52.8%, 52.9% to 53.1%, 53.2% to 53.4%, 53.5% or higher"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Wyoming At-Large election?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7411/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wyoming-At-Large-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 election for U.S. Representative from Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District. \nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Liz Cheney",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chuck Gray",
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anthony Bouchard",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Denton Knapp",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bryan Miller",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darin Smith",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bryan Keller",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robyn Belinskey",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Buchanan",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perry Pendley",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:18.776Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Liz Cheney, Chuck Gray, Anthony Bouchard, Denton Knapp, Bryan Miller, Darin Smith, Bryan Keller, Robyn Belinskey, Ed Buchanan, Perry Pendley"
},
{
"title": "How many votes to confirm Todd Kim as assistant attorney general by Aug. 6?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7412/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Todd-Kim-as-assistant-attorney-general-by-Aug-6",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Todd Kim (the \"Nominee\") to the position of Assistant Attorney General at the Department of Justice (the \"Office\"), according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. \nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. \nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. \nShould no vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should the Nominee be confirmed to the Office in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"52 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"69 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "52 or fewer",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53 or 54",
"probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55 or 56",
"probability": 0.40566037735849053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57 or 58",
"probability": 0.4339622641509434,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "59 or 60",
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61 or 62",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 or 64",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 or 66",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67 or 68",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 or more",
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:22.282Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "52 or fewer, 53 or 54, 55 or 56, 57 or 58, 59 or 60, 61 or 62, 63 or 64, 65 or 66, 67 or 68, 69 or more"
},
{
"title": "Will Peter Meijer be appointed to the January 6 Select Committee by Aug. 6?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7413/Will-Peter-Meijer-be-appointed-to-the-January-6-Select-Committee-by-Aug-6",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) is officially appointed to the House select committee to investigate the January 6 attack on the United States Capitol, by the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 08/06/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:27.872Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On August 21, 2013, rockets with chemical payloads landed around the neighborhood of Zamalka, located in Ghouta (an agricultural area outside of Damascus), resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties. A UN team visited the area and confirmed that the [rockets carried sarin](http://info.publicintelligence.net/UN-SyriaChemicalAttack.pdf), a deadly nerve agent used as a chemical weapon.\nThere was initial skepticism that the Syrian government would have ordered such an attack, risking retaliation by the US. But information published by the US, UN, and Human Rights Watch during the following weeks convinced Western public opinion that the Syrian government was indeed responsible. This information included:\n1--Proof that the [volcano rockets found in Zamalka were locally manufactured by the government](https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack). \n2--[Rocket trajectories reported by the UN that were shown to intersect at a Syrian army base](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/world/middleeast/un-data-on-gas-attack-points-to-assads-top-forces.html). \n3--Detection of sarin, which was known to be held by the Syrian government. \n4--[Reports by the US government that the rockets had been launched from government territory](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/30/government-assessment-syrian-government-s-use-chemical-weapons-august-21). \n5--Finally, [Syria&rsquo;s agreement to dismantle their chemical weapons program](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Destruction_of_Syria%27s_chemical_weapons) was further seen as an admission of guilt. At that point the issue mostly disappeared from public discourse. \nHowever, over time, some of this evidence has been found to be unreliable, while new evidence has surfaced that seems to better support the hypothesis that opposition forces were behind the attack. These include:\n1--Analysis of the rocket&rsquo;s range showing that it could not have been launched from the army base initially suspected as the origin. \n2--[Errors in the UN trajectory calculations](http://whoghouta.blogspot.com/2013/) that, together with the new rocket range calculation, point to a launch from opposition territory. \n3--Evidence of multiple instances in which the opposition used sarin or [tried to acquire it](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/turkish-syrian-jihadis-chemical-court.html). \n4--[Videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlcbBTjh2EU) apparently showing an opposition group (Liwa al-Islam) launching chemical rockets, which match the time and location of the attack on Ghouta. \nThis attack, and others that followed, are the subject of heated international debate, which significantly increased the risk of a US-Russian military conflict on at least three occasions. The world clearly needs an unbiased analysis of this case using advanced inference tools.\n\nUpdate: In June 2021, the videos of the event were corroborated as authentic. They were matched to a field within opposition controlled territory, and that field has been shown to be in the intersection of seven trajectories calculated from images of the impact sites. [See additional evidence](https://blog.rootclaim.com/new-evidence-2013-sarin-attack-in-ghouta-syria).\n\nWe now consider this issue closed, and no longer see a need for a probabilistic analysis, as the new discoveries are clear enough to understand using standard human reasoning. We're leaving the analysis here for reference, and recording our original estimate: 87% Opposition, 13% Syrian army.\n\nNote: While we don&rsquo;t expect anyone to apply at this point, the Rootclaim $100,000 debate challenge is still available for this issue. [Read more here](http://blog.rootclaim.com/100000-syria-debate-challenge). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack.",
"probability": 0.036109738906225514,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack.",
"probability": 0.9638902610937745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.915Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The Syrian army carried out the chemical attack., Opposition forces in Syria (Liwa al-Islam) carried out the chemical attack."
},
{
"title": "What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "When a novel coronavirus was first identified in late 2019, the assumption was that, like most epidemics, it was of a zoonotic source. A few studies, including [one published in the prestigious Nature magazine](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#auth-1), concluded that the virus is not a laboratory construct.\nToday, claiming a non-zoonotic origin is widely [considered a conspiracy theory](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/09/conspiracies-covid-19-lab-false-pandemic), and indeed many such claims are easily refutable without requiring probabilistic inference.\nHowever, the possibility of a lab escape does require serious examination, especially when considering the proximity of the source to a major coronavirus lab and [several unusual findings in the genome of SARS-CoV-2](https://bit.ly/3d0yZId). Due to the complexities of weighing an unlikely lab origin against findings that are unlikely for a zoonotic source, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n\nThis analysis is part of the Rootclaim $100,000 challenge, open to anyone who disagrees with our calculated conclusion. [Read more](https://rootclaim.com/rootclaim_challenge).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically.",
"probability": 0.031240153462625254,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident.",
"probability": 0.8269448252439308,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released.",
"probability": 0.034711280233216756,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers.",
"probability": 0.10710374106022696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.915Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The virus evolved in nature and was transmitted to humans zoonotically., The virus was developed during gain-of-function research and was released by accident., The virus was genetically engineered as a bioweapon and was deliberately released., The virus evolved in nature, and was contracted by virus researchers."
},
{
"title": "Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "The [2020 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) officially concluded with president Joe Biden declared the winner over his opponent, former President Donald Trump. The results have been disputed by many, including Trump, claiming the Biden victory was obtained illegally, by various means of election fraud. Due to the complexity of the US election system and the number of fraud claims raised, the issue is not easily settled, and a probabilistic analysis is needed.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome.",
"probability": 0.8474962690751916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people.",
"probability": 0.07757191512692231,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment.",
"probability": 0.06511457976886398,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based.",
"probability": 0.009817236029022127,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The election was no different than previous elections, with minor fraud incidents that did not change the outcome., The election outcome was manipulated through the centrally coordinated effort of multiple people., The election outcome was manipulated through a centralized mass computer fraud, involving a significant portion of US electronic voting equipment., The election outcome was manipulated through many local and uncoordinated frauds, whether human or machine-based."
},
{
"title": "Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "There is a heated debate regarding the effectiveness of vitamin D in improving COVID-19 outcomes. While numerous studies show a correlation, many claim it is due to confounding factors. A few controlled trials showed a strong effect, but the most notable one, conducted in [C&oacute;rdoba, Spain](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960076020302764), had significant flaws that prevented it from being widely accepted.\nMore studies are underway, and within a year or so we will likely get a more certain answer, but a probabilistic analysis of currently available information can reach a useful conclusion faster, potentially saving hundreds of thousands of lives.\nAdditionally, the conclusion below is included in the [Rootclaim $100,000 challenge](https://blog.rootclaim.com/treating-covid-19-with-vitamin-d-100000-challenge/).\nNote: this is a simplified analysis; the full version was published in September 2020 [on the Rootclaim blog](https://blog.rootclaim.com/vitamin-d-can-likely-end-the-covid-19-pandemic/). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes.",
"probability": 0.02185526954832443,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes.",
"probability": 0.14643030597377368,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2.",
"probability": 0.05463817387081107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5.",
"probability": 0.48567265662943165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20.",
"probability": 0.2914035939776591,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.916Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Vitamin D worsens COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D has no effect on COVID-19 outcomes., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 2., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 5., Vitamin D reduces the odds for severe COVID-19 by a factor of around 20."
},
{
"title": "What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.\nFlight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 [UTC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.\n![image] (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3c/MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg/440px-MH370_initial_search_Southeast_Asia.svg.png)\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.",
"probability": 0.9303855144518759,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide.",
"probability": 0.040451544106603274,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.",
"probability": 0.021068512555522584,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.",
"probability": 0.004577391856729619,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).",
"probability": 0.00028091350074030126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.",
"probability": 0.003236123528528264,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.917Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide., The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 while committing suicide., Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours., Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane., Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down)., The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight ​MH370 with the intent of landing the plane."
},
{
"title": "What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On Friday, December 15, 2017, billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Barry Sherman and his wife Honey were found dead in their home in Toronto. [Sherman was one of the wealthiest Canadians](http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelatindera/2017/12/15/canadian-pharmaceuticals-billionaire-and-wife-found-dead-in-toronto-mansion/#5734bf2b7fe2), and the Shermans gave considerable sums to [philanthropic causes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/17/barry-and-honey-sherman-canadian-pm-leads-mourning-of-billionaire-couple), as well as business ventures and [political campaigns](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). The Shermans were [found in their home, by an indoor pool, and police determined that they died of strangulation](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html). Although police stated that the circumstances of the deaths \"[appear to be suspicious](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/17/police-await-autopsy-results-in-suspicious-deaths-of-billionaires-barry-and-honey-sherman.html),\" they also noted that there were no immediate suspects and initially investigated the case as [a potential homicide-suicide](https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/16/murder-suicide-is-the-working-theory-for-police-investigating-death-of-billionaire-and-his-wife.html). Friends and family of the Shermans declared from the outset that this must have been a homicide, insisting that the Shermans wouldn't have taken their own (or one another's) lives. On Friday January 26, Toronto police [announced that they were treating the case as a double homicide](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/barry-and-honey-shermans-death-now-ruled-as-double-homicide/article37745567/), without revealing any additional evidence.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Barry and Honey were both murdered.",
"probability": 0.7651433409264672,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Barry and Honey committed suicide together.",
"probability": 0.13874736684819586,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself.",
"probability": 0.0961092922253371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.917Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Barry and Honey were both murdered., Barry and Honey committed suicide together., Barry murdered Honey and then killed himself."
},
{
"title": "What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "Donald Trump's hair is a mystery; it has been compared to[ cotton candy](http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/09/politics/jeb-bush-stephen-colbert-late-show-extras/) (by Jeb Bush and Stephen Colbert),[ soft serve ice cream](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trumps-hair-soft-serve-dairy/story?id=33818262) at Dairy Queen (by Hillary Clinton on Saturday Night Live), a[ rare caterpillar](http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-caterpillar-2016-9), and[ other objects](http://www.boredpanda.com/donald-trump-hair-look-alikes/). While[ The Donald](http://www.amazon.com/TrumpNation-The-Art-Being-Donald/dp/1422366189) claims that he has a full head of natural hair, others doubt his story, suggesting that he has an involved comb over covering his baldness, that he wears a toupee, or that he has undergone surgery to reconstruct his hairline.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery.",
"probability": 0.6014630328803353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump has hair plug transplants.",
"probability": 0.311266661641781,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump wears a toupee.",
"probability": 0.05523460705178658,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over).",
"probability": 0.030328877509767715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head.",
"probability": 0.0013827991564558896,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International).",
"probability": 0.00032402175987351645,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.918Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump's hair is a result of flap surgery., Donald Trump has hair plug transplants., Donald Trump wears a toupee., Donald Trump has a full head of hair (but chooses a hairstyle that looks like a comb over)., Donald Trump uses a comb over to hide a bald patch that is only on the crown of his head., Donald Trump's hair is a weave (supplied by Ivari International)."
},
{
"title": "Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On April 19, 2017, former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez, in prison with a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd, was found hanging in his jail cell and pronounced dead. Five days earlier Hernandez had been acquitted in a double murder case (the homicides of [Daniel de Abreu and Safiro Furtado](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/aaron-hernandez-not-guilty-in-2012-double-homicide/)). Although Hernandez's death was officially ruled a suicide, his fiancee and lawyers have questioned that conclusion.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself.",
"probability": 0.9672599583106107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No. Someone else killed Hernandez.",
"probability": 0.032740041689389265,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.918Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes. Hernandez killed himself., No. Someone else killed Hernandez."
},
{
"title": "Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "[Hae Min Lee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Hae_Min_Lee) was a high school senior in Baltimore, Maryland, who disappeared on January 13, 1999. When her body was found a month later on February 9, an investigation ensued that relied heavily on information provided by Jay Wilds, a marijuana dealer who had graduated from Hae's high school. The police claimed to have focused on Hae's ex-boyfriend, Adnan Syed, following a tip from an anonymous caller and information provided by Jenn (a friend of Jay but not of Adnan). After Adnan’s conviction, the case was featured in the podcasts [Serial](http://serialpodcast.org/) and [Undisclosed](http://undisclosed-podcast.com/), and some of the new evidence and arguments led the court to [overturn Adnan's conviction and grant him a new trial](https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2016/jul/01/serial-adnan-syed-new-trial-hae-min-lee-murder). Followers of the case have made[ maps containing significant locations](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zERAsrjje-sU.kQFffQE6h2vk), [multiple](http://i.imgur.com/E11E8WM.jpg) possible [timelines](http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/pulse_embed/public/2014/11/05/serial_tl_1-6_770.png) have been suggested, and debates have ensued on forums such as [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III).",
"probability": 0.5377257381473797,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee.",
"probability": 0.3135449100891127,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).",
"probability": 0.08451102649131251,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee.",
"probability": 0.04682696694032147,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night).",
"probability": 0.01393535852010411,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM).",
"probability": 0.0018381056042367754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee.",
"probability": 0.0008436308886018265,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee.",
"probability": 0.0007742633189311423,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.923Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Hae Min Lee was killed by someone else (other than Adnan Syed, Jay Wilds, Don, or Roy Sharonnie Davis III)., Roy Sharonnie Davis III (a convicted murderer who was in the area) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Don (Hae's boyfriend at the time of the murder) killed Hae Min Lee., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her without Jay's help (this timeline differs from the version of events presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: killed after 2:30 PM and buried after 11 PM that night)., Adnan Syed killed Hae Min Lee, and buried her with Jay's help (this timeline was presented to the jury that convicted Adnan: he called for pickup at 2:35 PM after murdering Hae, and buried her around 7 PM)., Jay Wilds killed Hae Min Lee., Shamim Syed (Adnan's mother) killed Hae Min Lee."
},
{
"title": "What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On April 4, 2017, Khan Sheikhoun, Syria came under attack. There were reports of dozens dead and hundreds injured, with those affected displaying signs of exposure to sarin.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack.",
"probability": 0.8253215707870933,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack.",
"probability": 0.16344300992585953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents.",
"probability": 0.011235419287047115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.923Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Opposition forces carried out a chemical attack., The Syrian Army carried out a chemical attack., A Syrian Army conventional bombing unintentionally released opposition chemical agents."
},
{
"title": "Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On December 20, 2015, Steve Harvey incorrectly announced Miss Colombia as the winner at the Miss Universe pageant before announcing the actual winner, Miss Philippines. While some believed this was an honest mistake, others thought it was a scripted move to generate buzz for the floundering pageant industry. Meanwhile, the internet responded with multiple [memes of Steve Harvey making mistakes](http://abc7ny.com/entertainment/the-funniest-reactions-to-steve-harvey-announcing-the-wrong-miss-universe-winner/1130613/); Steve Harvey himself even released a [meme poking fun at the mix-up](https://twitter.com/IAmSteveHarvey/status/680446179209916421/photo/1) and starred in a related [T-Mobile Superbowl ad](https://youtu.be/eI8YZdejPKg).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.",
"probability": 0.9620014460508962,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.",
"probability": 0.033854158022774763,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.",
"probability": 0.00414439592632885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers&#39; knowledge.",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake., The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge., The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together., Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers&#39; knowledge."
},
{
"title": "Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? ",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, [a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37430824) as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.\nFollowing the attack, [Russia ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN11R238?il=0)and the [United States](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/syria-ceasefire-is-over-says-countrys-military) blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The [UN](http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/syria-unsarc-convoy-hit-urum-al-kubra-northwest-aleppo-city) and [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/09/20/syria-investigate-attack-un-aid-convoy) both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the [collapse](http://time.com/4500719/syria-ceasefire-aid-convoy-aleppo/) of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.",
"probability": 0.416998344156324,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.",
"probability": 0.3996231698874853,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.",
"probability": 0.12766875086273002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.",
"probability": 0.051659883539936315,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The US Air Force carried out the attack.",
"probability": 0.0040498515535244296,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The Russian Air Force carried out the attack., The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly., The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack., Opposition ground forces carried out the attack., The US Air Force carried out the attack."
},
{
"title": "Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On the evening of July 15, 2016, the world was surprised by news of a military coup in process in Turkey. Top politicians, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself, and heads of the military and police were [attacked](http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1471502/turkeys-president-erdogan-minutes-away-from-death-after-coup-plotters-stormed-hotel/) or [detained](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-military-chief-rescue-idUSKCN0ZW0C8), [media outlets were taken over](http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/18/middleeast/turkey-failed-coup-explainer/), and [armed soldiers took over the streets](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36816045). After President Erdogan issued a call to action using his mobile phone, [Turkish civilians streamed onto the streets](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-astonishing-pictures-show-violent-clashes-and-mobs-attacking-soldiers-attempting-to-a7140406.html) and [confronted the Turkish military](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/brutal-moment-civilians-throw-stones-and-stamp-on-a-turkish-tank/), ultimately [thwarting the coup](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/12/turkey-failed-coup-attempt-161217032345594.html). In the aftermath of the coup attempt, the Turkish government blamed Fethullah Gulen and urged the US government to extradite him, while arresting, suspending or firing [hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-minister-idUSKBN15F12G?il=0). Gulen for his part [condemned the coup](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/opinion/fethullah-gulen-i-condemn-all-threats-to-turkeys-democracy.html?_r=0) and denied any connection to it. Half a year later, the Turkish government was still [prosecuting Gulen in absentia](http://news.sky.com/story/turkey-puts-270-plotters-on-trial-over-failed-coup-10748757), [sparring with Germany and Greece](http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkey-urges-germany-deny-asylum-coup-linked-soldiers-45127682) about the extradition of Turks allegedly involved in the coup attempt, and warning countries in [Africa](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/turkish-president-lands-in-mozambique-for-talks/2017/01/24/49ffed02-e21f-11e6-a419-eefe8eff0835_story.html?utm_term=.a5a440925941) and [Asia ](http://english.almanar.com.lb/101957)about any involvement with the Gulen movement.\nTurkey has a [history of coups](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/04/20124472814687973.html), typically being led by the military, with the stated goal of upholding Kemalist values, including secularism, and restoring order. Historically Turkish politics has been dominated by Kemalism, but over the last fifteen years, [religious parties have gradually become the most influential actors in Turkish politics](https://www.brookings.edu/research/turkey-the-new-model/), including the Sufi and modernist-leaning movement of Fethullah Gulen, and Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (the AKP). The AKP calls its ideology \"conservative democratic,\" focused on increasing religious freedom in the public sphere and economic liberalism; its critics allege [censorship of free press and illiberal authoritarianism](https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/11/opinion/turkeys-authoritarian-drift-election-erdogan.html?_r=0).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt.",
"probability": 0.9469540803576163,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack.",
"probability": 0.03625608693681129,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt.",
"probability": 0.016789832705572445,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.924Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Kemalists in the Turkish military were behind the coup attempt., Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan staged the coup as a false-flag attack., Supporters of Fethullah Gulen were behind the coup attempt."
},
{
"title": "Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "Although Osama Bin Laden became the world's[ most wanted man](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/02osama-bin-laden-obituary.html) after September 11, 2001, with a[ 25 million dollar bounty](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/osama-bin-ladens-death-25-million-reward-remain-secret/story?id=13526284) on his head, it took almost a decade before he was finally located and killed. On May 2, 2011, two dozen US Navy Seals landed outside of a large compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, shooting and killing Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden's body was later dropped in the sea.\nThe raid on the compound, the killing of Bin Laden, and the revelation that he had apparently been hiding out in Pakistan for years, caught the world by surprise. A number of questions were raised, including whether the government of Pakistan, or its military intelligence, had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in the country, and whether the US had informed Pakistan of the impending raid.\nNote: this analysis assumes that the US account of the capture is accurate. Some have doubted the veracity and accuracy of this account, a controversy that may be analyzed by Rootclaim in the future.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.",
"probability": 0.8191041703878119,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad.",
"probability": 0.09563276276017901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. ",
"probability": 0.08526306685200913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, Pakistani intelligence (but not the government) knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., No, Pakistan didn't know that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad., Yes, the Pakistani government knew that Bin Laden was in Abbottabad. "
},
{
"title": "Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "Since around 2006, Jamaica has supplied many of the world's fastest sprinters. Some have used [genetics ](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/books/article-2412477/What-makes-Usain-fellow-runners-bolt-THE-SPORTS-GENE-BY-DAVID-EPSTEIN.html)to explain the [Jamaican dominance in sprinting](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/14/opinion/sunday/the-secret-of-jamaicas-runners.html?_r=1), some [credit the Jamaican environment](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2016/08/18/490346468/a-surprising-theory-about-jamaicas-amazing-running-success), while others believe that it is the result of rampant cheating in the form of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs). At the center of this debate is Usain Bolt, first recognized when he became the youngest gold medalist ever at the 2002 Junior World Championships. After establishing himself as a professional sprinter, Bolt won 17 of his 18 races between 2007 and 2016, capturing 17 gold medals and setting multiple world records. Since Bolt wins races against athletes known to have taken PEDs, some wonder if Bolt became the world's fastest man by taking PEDs himself.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs.",
"probability": 0.7469908609359496,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.",
"probability": 0.21943257968810703,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career.",
"probability": 0.03357655937594347,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Usain Bolt did not use any illegal performance-enhancing drugs., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs after age 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career., Usain Bolt started using illegal performance-enhancing drugs before he was 15 in 2002, continuing to do so throughout his professional career."
},
{
"title": "Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On July 28, 2015, a live broadcast of the Serbian lottery drawing [appeared to show one of the winning numbers before it was drawn](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DxUvX5tsqY&amp;feature=youtu.be&amp;t=14). This led to widespread [accusations](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33746126) [of ](http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN0Q41V120150730)[corruption ](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/serbian-lottery-probe-after-winning-number-called-before-its-drawn-10430922.html)in the media, and an [official investigation](http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/serbian-lottery-investigated-police-after-6164657) into the circumstances of the irregularities.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately.",
"probability": 0.994999181403421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging.",
"probability": 0.004795710863869053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging.",
"probability": 0.00020510773270973915,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was carried out legitimately., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, but the video of the drawing does not show evidence of the rigging., The Serbian lottery drawing that was broadcast on July 28, 2015 was rigged, and the video of the drawing shows evidence of the rigging."
},
{
"title": "Why was Seth Rich killed?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, [DNC staffer Seth Rich](http://www.popville.com/2016/07/early-morning-shooting-in-bloomingdale/) was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.\nWhile the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. [When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder](http://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/artikel/2124316-assange-belooft-nieuwe-onthullingen-over-clinton.html) these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were [interpreted](http://forward.com/news/national/347668/newt-gingrich-just-fanned-the-flames-of-seth-rich-conspiracy-theories/) by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong.",
"probability": 0.8899299168589954,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee.",
"probability": 0.09615579336720934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee.",
"probability": 0.01391428977379551,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.925Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Seth Rich's murder was a robbery gone wrong., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by an organization other than the Democratic National Committee., Seth Rich's murder was arranged by the Democratic National Committee."
},
{
"title": "Why was Stonehenge built?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "Stonehenge may be the most famous of all megaliths. Various theories attribute its construction to Druids, Merlin, and even aliens. Although it is clear that Stonehenge was deliberately constructed, no one really knows why. This analysis focuses on the original purpose for which it was built, irrespective of what its functions may have been after it was constructed.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship.",
"probability": 0.8105659668974038,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stonehenge was built as a burial site.",
"probability": 0.1313461492124186,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker.",
"probability": 0.056899570682862534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing.",
"probability": 0.0011883132073152599,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe.",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.926Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Stonehenge was built as a place of sun worship., Stonehenge was built as a burial site., Stonehenge was built as a large calendar or season tracker., Stonehenge was built as a place of mystical healing., Stonehenge was built as a geocentric representation of the Universe."
},
{
"title": "Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "The number of autism cases has increased significantly in the past few decades, from approximately [1 in 2,500 children](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf) in 1966 to [1 in 68](http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/data.html) in 2016. The increase in the number of autism cases is attributed in part to [improved screening and broadening of the diagnostic criteria](http://www.whilesciencesleeps.com/pdf/600.pdf).\nThe alleged association between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism began in 1998, when Andrew Wakefield and several coauthors published a research paper in The Lancet, a leading British medical journal, suggesting a link between them. Wakefield's findings caused great concern among parents in the UK and the US and[ led to a significant drop in vaccinations](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wH1obrIZ54k&amp;feature=youtu.be&amp;t=350) of children. Numerous subsequent studies have failed to support an association between the administration of the vaccine and autism spectrum disorder. Beginning in 2004, British investigative journalist Brian Deer wrote several articles accusing Wakefield of concealing conflicts of interest, manipulating evidence, and other unethical research practices. In 2010 The Lancet [retracted Wakefield&#39;s study](http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2810%2960175-4/abstract) after several elements in the study were found to be &quot;incorrect, contrary to the findings of an earlier investigation.&quot;\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism.",
"probability": 0.9989448582556197,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. ",
"probability": 0.00092438670468488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet.",
"probability": 0.00013075503969541352,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.926Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The MMR vaccine does not cause autism., The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, and the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies are deliberately covering it up. , The MMR vaccine does cause autism in a measurable number of cases, but the health organizations and pharmaceutical companies haven't established this causal relationship yet."
},
{
"title": "Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?",
"url": "https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129",
"platform": "Rootclaim",
"description": "In July 2014, Ukraine was fighting with the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), a separatist organization and self-proclaimed state in the Ukraine that supports Russia. On July 17, 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down and crashed over DNR territory.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane).",
"probability": 0.9526172817647263,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane).",
"probability": 0.022161263441175128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise).",
"probability": 0.020142059292511075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR).",
"probability": 0.005079395501587589,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-07-27T15:03:30.926Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 1,
"stars": 4
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "The Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (mistaking it for a Ukrainian military plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (mistaking it for an enemy plane)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using a surface-to-air missile (during a training exercise)., The Ukrainian government shot down MH17 using an air-to-air missile (in order to frame the DNR)."
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
"probability": 0.06388276984963126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
"probability": 0.0009577626664112632,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
"probability": 0.015994636529068094,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
"probability": 0.0341921271908821,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
"probability": 0.08332535197777989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0.06388276984963126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0.061775691983526476,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.05181496025284934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
"probability": 0.00009577626664112632,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.10410880183890431,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
"probability": 0.05181496025284934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.06388276984963126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0.03831050665645053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
"probability": 0.013696006129681063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
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"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candace Owens",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jnr",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.014182517132864288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Ryan",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kanye West",
"probability": 0.010795647369792218,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike DeWine",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Hickenlooper",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Kaine",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Gaetz",
"probability": 0.007161469047287907,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.005740542649016497,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Kushner",
"probability": 0.004790121680636282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Megan Rapinoe",
"probability": 0.004790121680636282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Meghan Markle",
"probability": 0.004790121680636282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
"probability": 0.004790121680636282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
"probability": 0.003598549123264073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Tucker Carlson, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Dwayne Johnson, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ted Cruz, Beto O'Rourke, Michelle Obama, Amy Klobuchar, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Candace Owens, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jnr, Josh Hawley, Ivanka Trump, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Andrew Cuomo, Dan Crenshaw, Gretchen Whitmer, Andrew Yang, Michael Bloomberg, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Gavin Newsom, Bernie Sanders, Mike DeWine, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Jared Kushner, Megan Rapinoe, Meghan Markle, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Mark Zuckerberg"
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)\n\nOrd writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Will MacAskill (~2019)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours (~2017)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "John Leslie (~1996)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: At or above 30%\n\nThe probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Martin Rees (~2003)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Metaculus responders (~2021)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.\n\nWhile the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Nick Bostrom (~2002)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Gott III (~1993)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Wells (~2009)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0035,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9965,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Simpson (~2016)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.2%\n\nBeard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Ozzie Gooen (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: >20%\n\nI think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Survey of AI experts (~2017)"
},
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0-10%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Ben Garfinkel (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%\n\nGarfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.055,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "James Fodor (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 5-30%\n\nI put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Stuart Armstrong (~2014)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%\n\nStated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Jaan Tallinn (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 33-50%\n\nThis comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.585,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.05%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.00004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie (~2017)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0000019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\nThe fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.0001%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "James Fodor (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.0002%\n\nThis was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\nThis is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pamlin & Armstrong (~2015)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.0100%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)\n\nSee this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~33% (\"about one in three\")\n\nOrd: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\"",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6699999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Survey of experts in the AI field (~2016)"
},
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nThis is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Rohin Shah (~2019)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~20%\n\nThis may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~2%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Luke Oman (~2012)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)\n\nI think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.000055,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
},
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 30-40%\n\nArden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
},
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
},
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09999999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Mark Lynas (~2020)"
},
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.030000000000000027,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
},
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
},
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.1%\n\nReduced from his 5% unconditional probability",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Bryan Caplan (~2006)"
},
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~10%\n\nSo, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Adam Gleave (~2019)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~20-30%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Rohin Shah (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nThere’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Buck Schlegris (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~30%\n\nI haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~50%\n\nBasically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.5%\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Toby Ord (~2020)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: ~5%\n\nI give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.",
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"qualityindicators": {
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},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 1.10%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
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"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"name": "No",
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}
],
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{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez (~2019)"
},
"description": "Actual estimate: 0.38%\n\nIn this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.0038,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9962,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.020000000000000018,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "GCR Conference (~2008)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Brian Tomasik (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"moreoriginsdata": {
"author": "Pablo Stafforini (~2015)"
},
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
}
]
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