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[
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
"probability": 0.03746229444390386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
"probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
"probability": 0.025591125814926532,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
"probability": 0.027050695728325382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
"probability": 0.10810547825240828,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0.06490220881580228,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0.06276150627615062,
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},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.05264182154325192,
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},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
"probability": 0.00544906101002238,
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},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.0810547825240829,
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},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
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},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.07482728422691447,
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},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0.03892186435730271,
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},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
"probability": 0.013914566507735718,
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},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tobias Ellwood",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Baker",
"probability": 0.030359054198696115,
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},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
"probability": 0.023158509292595112,
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},
{
"name": "Esther McVey",
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},
{
"name": "Philip Hammond",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.2904544127663715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:11.915Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
"options": [
{
"name": "Male",
"probability": 0.7736942156241513,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Female",
"probability": 0.22630578437584864,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.285Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
"probability": 0.005478779949300842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
"probability": 0.017744705208929592,
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},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
"probability": 0.05274347861640363,
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{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
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},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
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},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0,
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{
"name": "Andrea Nahles",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Gunther",
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},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
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},
{
"name": "Wolfgang Schäuble",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julia Klockner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heiko Maas",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malu Dreyer",
"probability": 0,
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},
{
"name": "Peter Altmaier",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralf Stegner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
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},
{
"name": "Sahra Wagenknecht",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Martin Sonneborn",
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},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
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{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
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{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
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{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.637Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Derek Mackay",
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},
{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
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},
{
"name": "Stewart Hosie",
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},
{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
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},
{
"name": "Shona Robison",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Swinney",
"probability": null,
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},
{
"name": "Keith Brown",
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},
{
"name": "Joanna Cherry",
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},
{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
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},
{
"name": "Alex Salmond",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Michael Matheson",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tommy Sheppard",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Angela Constance",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Roseanna Cunningham",
"probability": null
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.995Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"probability": 0.009484966328369536,
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},
{
"probability": 0.00009484966328369536,
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},
{
"name": "2021",
"probability": 0.1281418950962724,
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},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
"probability": 0.8622782889120744,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.244Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05664798777381558,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9433520122261844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.580Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.011361959569130883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nigel Farage",
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},
{
"name": "Jo Swinson",
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},
{
"name": "Keir Starmer",
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},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
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},
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
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},
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
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},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
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},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
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},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
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},
{
"name": "Dominic Grieve",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
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},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
"probability": 0.020510550391028472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Watson",
"probability": 0.01601003393832079,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
"probability": 0.028404898922827205,
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},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0,
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},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
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},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
"probability": 0.03688947912055481,
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},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
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},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.03511878412276818,
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},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ken Clarke",
"probability": 0.04471004869411243,
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},
{
"name": "Harriet Harman",
"probability": 0.007377895824110962,
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},
{
"name": "Margaret Beckett",
"probability": 0.054670208056662235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.2107864836948502,
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},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.957Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "2020",
"probability": 0.04493978069387021,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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{
"name": "2022",
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},
{
"name": "2023",
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},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:14.318Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Year of next Scottish referendum",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"name": "2024",
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},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:14.674Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Michael Gove",
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{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
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{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
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{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
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{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
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},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
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{
"name": "Thérèse Coffey",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
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{
"name": "George Eustice",
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{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
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},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
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},
{
"name": "Alister Jack",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Hart",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Baroness Evans of Bowes Park",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Oliver Dowden",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
"probability": 0.03810107734080757,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:15.060Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Party to get the most seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.3905262220639302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
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},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.04950583207194372,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:15.306Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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},
{
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:15.675Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election in Hungary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",
"options": [
{
"name": "2022 or earlier",
"probability": 0.41877068864801714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
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{
"name": "2024",
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},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.032Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/welsh-assembly-elections-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
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},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
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{
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.387Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Baroin",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olivier Faure",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Marie Bigard",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean Lassalle",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:03.685Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Coatbridge and Chryston",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142104/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/coatbridge-and-chryston",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Coatbridge and Chryston at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.058Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Eastern",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142127/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-eastern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Eastern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.416Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Northern and Leith",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142137/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-northern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Northern and Leith at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Glasgow Southside",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142148/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-southside",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Southside at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.004Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Caithness, Sutherland and Ross",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142152/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/caithness-sutherland-and-ross",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.381Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Argyll and Bute",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142156/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/argyll-and-bute",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Argyll and Bute at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": null
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.628Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142158/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/skye-lochaber-and-badenoch",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
}
]
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