4464 lines
267 KiB
JSON
4464 lines
267 KiB
JSON
[
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1977-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-1-may-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 1,500",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500",
|
||
"probability": 0.52,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.48,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 12,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:45.150Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "19",
|
||
"numforecasters": "12",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1978-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-us-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-1-may-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 150,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.54,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.46,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 850,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:48.783Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "13",
|
||
"numforecasters": "10",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1980-how-many-people-will-have-been-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-in-the-us-as-of-30-april-2021-according-to-the-cdc",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Fully Vaccinated” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 85,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.14,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.86,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 135,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:52.477Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "8",
|
||
"numforecasters": "8",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 1 May 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1976-how-many-us-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-1-may-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 1 May 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 26 April 2021 through 2 May 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 15,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 85,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:56.732Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "9",
|
||
"numforecasters": "7",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1979-how-many-people-in-the-us-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-30-april-2021-according-to-the-cdc",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 130,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.7,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 180,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:00.152Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "11",
|
||
"numforecasters": "10",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1973-will-scott-morrison-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-australia-before-1-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament ([ABC Australia](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-23/scott-morrison-missteps-fuel-frustration-within-the-coalition/100022234), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/23/australias-prime-minister-vows-to-clean-up-parliament-in-wake-of-new-allegations), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56261504)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:03.206Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "94",
|
||
"numforecasters": "80",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541826-senate-rejects-sanders-15-minimum-wage-hike), [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-minimum-wage-setback-could-kick-start-talks-with-republicans-11615057218)). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/206), [US Dept. of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage)). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: Changes to the tipped minimum wage alone would not count.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:06.446Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "114",
|
||
"numforecasters": "100",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1975-will-berlin-s-humboldt-forum-open-to-the-general-public-before-1-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-humboldt-forum-in-berlin-is-a-new-kind-of-museum), [The Local (Germany)](https://www.thelocal.de/20201216/rebuilt-prussian-palace-scarred-by-history-opens-in-berlin/), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210323-germany-extends-covid-19-restrictions-into-april-including-strict-easter-lockdown), [Humboldt Forum](https://www.humboldtforum.org/en/)). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 April 2021: Only indoor events would count and whether an event charges for attendance would be immaterial.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.86,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.14,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:08.814Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "52",
|
||
"numforecasters": "41",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1971-will-restaurants-in-new-york-city-nyc-be-permitted-to-offer-indoor-dining-at-85-capacity-or-more-before-1-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic ([Spectrum News](https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2020/12/15/mondays-with-the-mayor-nyc-full-shutdown-de-blasio-nyc-shutdown-timeline), [WABC](https://abc7ny.com/covid-vaccine-new-york-dining-nyc-restaurants/10395226/)). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity ([nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page](https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-businesses-and-facilities.page), [nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide](https://www1.nyc.gov/nycbusiness/article/nyc-restaurant-reopening-guide)). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.22,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.78,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:11.333Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "179",
|
||
"numforecasters": "144",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55902070), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-police-use-water-cannon-as-protesters-rally/a-56492744)). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law ([CWC.gov](https://www.cwc.gov/cwc_treaty_full.html), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2016-03/features/perilous-paths%C2%A0weaponizing-toxic-chemicals-law-enforcement), [Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons](https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSP/C-14/open-forum/Dangerous-Ambiguities-Regulation-of-Riot-Control-Agents-and-Incapacitants-under-the-Chemical-Weapons-Convention_Rev.1.pdf)). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21751357), [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-11/news-briefs/us-alleges-new-syrian-chlorine-attack)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.35,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.65,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:14.465Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "110",
|
||
"numforecasters": "81",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Eric Adams",
|
||
"probability": 0.15,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Scott Stringer",
|
||
"probability": 0.07,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Maya Wiley",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Andrew Yang",
|
||
"probability": 0.65,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Someone else",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:17.769Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "148",
|
||
"numforecasters": "84",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $100 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.13,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "$180 billion or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.87,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:21.161Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "57",
|
||
"numforecasters": "41",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Lower",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Same",
|
||
"probability": 0.96,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Higher",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:23.915Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "89",
|
||
"numforecasters": "74",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 25 March 2021: The question will close using the nominal figures as reported by FAO.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 100.0",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0",
|
||
"probability": 0.24,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.61,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 130.0",
|
||
"probability": 0.13,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:27.328Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "64",
|
||
"numforecasters": "43",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Lower than 1.7%",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.18,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
|
||
"probability": 0.56,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.24,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Higher than 3.1%",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:30.433Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "141",
|
||
"numforecasters": "86",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "The Father",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
|
||
"probability": 0.07,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Mank",
|
||
"probability": 0.07,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Minari",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Nomadland",
|
||
"probability": 0.69,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Promising Young Woman",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Sound of Metal",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "The Trial of the Chicago 7",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "A tie or other outcome",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:34.368Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "126",
|
||
"numforecasters": "79",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Mank (David Fincher)",
|
||
"probability": 0.07,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)",
|
||
"probability": 0.08,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
|
||
"probability": 0.73,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "A tie or other outcome",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:37.553Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "92",
|
||
"numforecasters": "54",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.76,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.24,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:40.618Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "149",
|
||
"numforecasters": "99",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 14.5 million",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.17,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.39,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 19.0 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.44,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:43.717Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "342",
|
||
"numforecasters": "176",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $25 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.18,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.37,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.29,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $55 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.09,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:46.957Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "154",
|
||
"numforecasters": "98",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:55.833Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "141",
|
||
"numforecasters": "92",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.41,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.41,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $150 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:00.606Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "90",
|
||
"numforecasters": "49",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM",
|
||
"probability": 0.35,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, both",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.57,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:04.066Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "212",
|
||
"numforecasters": "117",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.17,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.83,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:05.858Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "82",
|
||
"numforecasters": "48",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 150,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.88,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "550,000 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:08.856Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "261",
|
||
"numforecasters": "86",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:11.563Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "171",
|
||
"numforecasters": "97",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "0",
|
||
"probability": 0.79,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "1",
|
||
"probability": 0.16,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "2 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:14.853Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "93",
|
||
"numforecasters": "47",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:17.339Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "635",
|
||
"numforecasters": "414",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 4",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 4 and 8",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 9 and 13",
|
||
"probability": 0.54,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 14 and 18",
|
||
"probability": 0.34,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 18",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:21.085Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "482",
|
||
"numforecasters": "290",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.66,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.34,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:23.994Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "495",
|
||
"numforecasters": "384",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.36,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.64,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:26.268Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "290",
|
||
"numforecasters": "218",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 8,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.21,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.48,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 14,000,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:29.706Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "373",
|
||
"numforecasters": "224",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $0.50",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
|
||
"probability": 0.94,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $5.00",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:32.328Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "98",
|
||
"numforecasters": "34",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 5.4%",
|
||
"probability": 0.33,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.62,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 7.1%",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:35.441Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "242",
|
||
"numforecasters": "106",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 1.000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
|
||
"probability": 0.57,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.34,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 2.500",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:39.121Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "199",
|
||
"numforecasters": "63",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:42.144Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "157",
|
||
"numforecasters": "65",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less",
|
||
"probability": 0.08,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.82,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:45.072Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "669",
|
||
"numforecasters": "396",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:47.972Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "99",
|
||
"numforecasters": "54",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.09,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.91,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:50.192Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "233",
|
||
"numforecasters": "87",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.51,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.49,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:52.470Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "268",
|
||
"numforecasters": "84",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.97,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:01.617Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "106",
|
||
"numforecasters": "58",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.35,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.65,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:07.652Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "302",
|
||
"numforecasters": "132",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:10.638Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "215",
|
||
"numforecasters": "154",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 5 April 2021: A non-commercial suborbital flight with only Virgin Galactic personnel, including founders and employees, aboard the spacecraft would not count.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only SpaceX",
|
||
"probability": 0.27,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only Virgin Galactic",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, both",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.71,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:13.899Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "202",
|
||
"numforecasters": "129",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.96,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:16.837Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "190",
|
||
"numforecasters": "95",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Brooklyn Nets",
|
||
"probability": 0.21,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Los Angeles Clippers",
|
||
"probability": 0.16,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Los Angeles Lakers",
|
||
"probability": 0.21,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
|
||
"probability": 0.07,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Another team",
|
||
"probability": 0.35,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:20.179Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "172",
|
||
"numforecasters": "57",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.94,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:22.688Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "179",
|
||
"numforecasters": "93",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.88,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:24.873Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "136",
|
||
"numforecasters": "83",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:28.160Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "340",
|
||
"numforecasters": "128",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "0",
|
||
"probability": 0.62,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "1",
|
||
"probability": 0.37,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "2",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "3 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:31.407Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "284",
|
||
"numforecasters": "153",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the \"Cumulative Gross\" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $200 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.58,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $1.75 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:34.153Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "193",
|
||
"numforecasters": "87",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.86,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.14,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:37.091Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "116",
|
||
"numforecasters": "64",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Lower",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Same",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Higher",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:39.952Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "108",
|
||
"numforecasters": "71",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.75,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:42.739Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "259",
|
||
"numforecasters": "91",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.75,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.25,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:45.761Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "177",
|
||
"numforecasters": "102",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9bf8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5e8dbfcf4f4fff1eefffcf6fef5efb5f8f4f6a4e8eef9f1fef8efa6caeefee8eff2f4f5bea9abd8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:48.713Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "431",
|
||
"numforecasters": "204",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 March 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:52.356Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "507",
|
||
"numforecasters": "78",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.96,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:54.536Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "181",
|
||
"numforecasters": "120",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.85,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.15,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:56.862Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "355",
|
||
"numforecasters": "153",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?\nInformación adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:06.383Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "96",
|
||
"numforecasters": "52",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 226 seats",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats",
|
||
"probability": 0.43,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "300 seats or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.54,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:09.481Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "211",
|
||
"numforecasters": "99",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:12.894Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "87",
|
||
"numforecasters": "40",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.61,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.37,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 18 September 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:16.128Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "277",
|
||
"numforecasters": "88",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.32,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.68,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:18.730Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "123",
|
||
"numforecasters": "47",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.09,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.27,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.47,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.11,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $150 billion",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:21.738Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "267",
|
||
"numforecasters": "71",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.78,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.22,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:24.418Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "205",
|
||
"numforecasters": "69",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:27.207Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "142",
|
||
"numforecasters": "75",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.8,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:29.952Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "310",
|
||
"numforecasters": "147",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:32.907Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "284",
|
||
"numforecasters": "96",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.97,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:35.868Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "116",
|
||
"numforecasters": "37",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:38.903Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "202",
|
||
"numforecasters": "71",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world",
|
||
"probability": 0.68,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No, but the most valuable in the United States",
|
||
"probability": 0.21,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.11,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:42.102Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "219",
|
||
"numforecasters": "109",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 1.500",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
|
||
"probability": 0.57,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.32,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 3.000",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:45.708Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "314",
|
||
"numforecasters": "77",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.88,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:48.084Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "242",
|
||
"numforecasters": "89",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Lower",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Same",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Higher",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:51.032Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "130",
|
||
"numforecasters": "87",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Whether a launched stablecoin is backed by a single currency or multiple currencies is immaterial.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.52,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.48,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:55.043Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "184",
|
||
"numforecasters": "83",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.23,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.77,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:58.001Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "288",
|
||
"numforecasters": "68",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022",
|
||
"probability": 0.86,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:00.663Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "523",
|
||
"numforecasters": "199",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only by the FDA",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only by the EMA",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:03.704Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "482",
|
||
"numforecasters": "220",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNote 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:12.625Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "293",
|
||
"numforecasters": "148",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:15.614Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "396",
|
||
"numforecasters": "233",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.8,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:17.809Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "323",
|
||
"numforecasters": "107",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only Michael Spavor",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:20.490Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "376",
|
||
"numforecasters": "106",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:22.907Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "265",
|
||
"numforecasters": "128",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.69,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.29,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:25.943Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "304",
|
||
"numforecasters": "102",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 7 April 2021: Yes, an announced release date of what would be the sixth book in the series would count even if the title is changed from \"The Winds of Winter.\"\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.5,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:28.317Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "92",
|
||
"numforecasters": "45",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the \"Bank Rate\" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:31.313Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "436",
|
||
"numforecasters": "218",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file \"Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change.\" See the row designated \"10\" under \"SUMLEV\" and \"United States\" under \"NAME.\" The relevant data are titled \"INTERNATIONALMIG[year].\" For methodological information, see the \"Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population\" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:33.990Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "125",
|
||
"numforecasters": "63",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.8,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:36.896Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "98",
|
||
"numforecasters": "34",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $2.00",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
|
||
"probability": 0.77,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $3.50",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:40.494Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "308",
|
||
"numforecasters": "45",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only for president",
|
||
"probability": 0.74,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only for parliament",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, for both president and parliament",
|
||
"probability": 0.26,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:43.240Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "150",
|
||
"numforecasters": "31",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)",
|
||
"probability": 0.34,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)",
|
||
"probability": 0.11,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Another candidate",
|
||
"probability": 0.52,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:46.731Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "247",
|
||
"numforecasters": "88",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" fell below 20%?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.\nThe Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.2,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.8,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:49.727Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "676",
|
||
"numforecasters": "216",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 5.0%",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.08,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%",
|
||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 8.0%",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:52.498Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "608",
|
||
"numforecasters": "260",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 150,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.19,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "350,000 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.81,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:55.704Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "569",
|
||
"numforecasters": "223",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:58.679Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "380",
|
||
"numforecasters": "213",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.6,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.4,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:00.879Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "251",
|
||
"numforecasters": "129",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:03.039Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "355",
|
||
"numforecasters": "190",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:06.058Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "365",
|
||
"numforecasters": "172",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 January 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.19,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.81,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:16.004Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "393",
|
||
"numforecasters": "93",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:18.645Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "265",
|
||
"numforecasters": "67",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.96,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:21.432Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "347",
|
||
"numforecasters": "179",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:23.981Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "284",
|
||
"numforecasters": "111",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "3",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "4",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "5 or 6",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "7 or 8",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "9 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:27.292Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "1570",
|
||
"numforecasters": "242",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:30.405Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "331",
|
||
"numforecasters": "75",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:32.241Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "217",
|
||
"numforecasters": "65",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "0",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "1",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "2",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "3",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "4 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:35.611Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "165",
|
||
"numforecasters": "45",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:38.005Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "144",
|
||
"numforecasters": "56",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 December 2020",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:40.888Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "614",
|
||
"numforecasters": "165",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:43.775Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "815",
|
||
"numforecasters": "159",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 2.00%",
|
||
"probability": 0.44,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.49,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
|
||
"probability": 0.07,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 8.00%",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:47.020Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "580",
|
||
"numforecasters": "249",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 1.0 million",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.52,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 1.6 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.43,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:51.103Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "537",
|
||
"numforecasters": "96",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:54.209Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "223",
|
||
"numforecasters": "66",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:56.974Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "438",
|
||
"numforecasters": "165",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "England",
|
||
"probability": 0.47,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "France",
|
||
"probability": 0.11,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Germany",
|
||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Italy",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Spain",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Another country",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "There will not be a 2020-21 final winner",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:00.566Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "432",
|
||
"numforecasters": "117",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 19 October 2020",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 24 May 2021",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:03.492Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "731",
|
||
"numforecasters": "210",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.97,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:05.702Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "1241",
|
||
"numforecasters": "467",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.96,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:08.774Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "401",
|
||
"numforecasters": "164",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, \"voting system\" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:11.511Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "358",
|
||
"numforecasters": "162",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.88,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:20.352Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "770",
|
||
"numforecasters": "170",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 January 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.39,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.55,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:25.629Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "939",
|
||
"numforecasters": "171",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:28.049Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "338",
|
||
"numforecasters": "77",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.95,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:30.975Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "693",
|
||
"numforecasters": "195",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed \"as of,\" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.\nNOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "2 or fewer",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "3",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "4",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "5",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "6 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:33.982Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "487",
|
||
"numforecasters": "100",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 25,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.67,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.3,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.03,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 250,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:37.641Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "392",
|
||
"numforecasters": "127",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service",
|
||
"probability": 0.49,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service",
|
||
"probability": 0.12,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.38,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:41.338Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "332",
|
||
"numforecasters": "114",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered \"powered\" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery\nNOTE 2 October 2020: For purposes of this question, a \"passenger vehicle\" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). \n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "0",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "1 or 2",
|
||
"probability": 0.63,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "3 or 4",
|
||
"probability": 0.31,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "5 or 6",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "7 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:44.811Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "297",
|
||
"numforecasters": "84",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Before 1 January 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Not before 1 July 2021",
|
||
"probability": 0.9,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:47.860Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "963",
|
||
"numforecasters": "336",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:51.348Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "306",
|
||
"numforecasters": "140",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.15,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.85,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:54.405Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "695",
|
||
"numforecasters": "147",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to \"face criminal charges\" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, a firm",
|
||
"probability": 0.14,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, a paid backup driver",
|
||
"probability": 0.09,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, both",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.72,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:56.974Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "262",
|
||
"numforecasters": "100",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 2.2 million",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.06,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.48,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 4.0 million",
|
||
"probability": 0.46,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:00.684Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "278",
|
||
"numforecasters": "61",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab. First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to be only \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 5,300",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 6,500",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:04.194Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "248",
|
||
"numforecasters": "49",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nNOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, the Olympics only",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, the Paralympics only",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes, both",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:07.243Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "2413",
|
||
"numforecasters": "976",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.78,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.22,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:10.005Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "252",
|
||
"numforecasters": "114",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Fewer than 700,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.49,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.49,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 2,200,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:13.379Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "315",
|
||
"numforecasters": "85",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph \"Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)\" when the filter for \"Charger type\" is set to \"Fast (>22kW)\" and the filters at the top of the page are set to \"European Union\" and \"2022\".\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 25,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than 35,000",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 40,000",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:15.799Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "292",
|
||
"numforecasters": "78",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "0",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "1",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "2",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "3 or more",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:18.894Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "407",
|
||
"numforecasters": "224",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.02,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.98,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:28.273Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "196",
|
||
"numforecasters": "90",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than $80 per kWh",
|
||
"probability": 0.05,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.44,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh",
|
||
"probability": 0.47,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.04,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than $140 per kWh",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:31.612Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "297",
|
||
"numforecasters": "98",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Less than 2.5%",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%",
|
||
"probability": 0.36,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive",
|
||
"probability": 0.46,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "More than 8.5%",
|
||
"probability": 0.18,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:34.320Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "456",
|
||
"numforecasters": "153",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.\nPlease note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 1,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:36.922Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "273",
|
||
"numforecasters": "98",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"title": "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?",
|
||
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets",
|
||
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
|
||
"description": "Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.\nPlease note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\n",
|
||
"options": [
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "Yes",
|
||
"probability": 0.01,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
},
|
||
{
|
||
"name": "No",
|
||
"probability": 0.99,
|
||
"type": "PROBABILITY"
|
||
}
|
||
],
|
||
"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:39.978Z",
|
||
"qualityindicators": {
|
||
"numforecasts": "315",
|
||
"numforecasters": "136",
|
||
"stars": 3
|
||
}
|
||
}
|
||
] |