1469 lines
44 KiB
JSON
1469 lines
44 KiB
JSON
[
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{
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"title": "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67",
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},
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{
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"title": "% global rate of \"$1.90 a day\" poverty in 2030",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9",
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"stars": 2
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},
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{
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"title": "A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608",
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"description": "",
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},
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{
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"title": "A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
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{
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"title": "How many papers will cite \"Logical Induction\" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How many papers will cite \"Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems\" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 1,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [
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{
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"name": "Yes",
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"probability": 0.65,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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},
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{
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"name": "No",
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"probability": 0.35,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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}
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],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 1.5,
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"stars": 2
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{
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"title": "By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 4.5,
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"stars": 2
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},
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{
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"title": "Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [
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{
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"name": "Yes",
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"probability": 0.695,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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"name": "No",
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"probability": 0.30500000000000005,
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
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"probability": 0.245,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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},
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{
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"name": "No",
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"probability": 0.755,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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}
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],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 7.5,
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"stars": 2
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},
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{
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"title": "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 4,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.350Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 7,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.350Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 1,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.351Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 1,
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"stars": 2
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},
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{
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"title": "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.351Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 15,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 3,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.355Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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},
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{
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"title": "What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.355Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 5,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.356Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 6,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.357Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 6.5,
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{
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"title": "Will MIRI still exist in 2023?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
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"probability": 0.9233333333333333,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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"name": "No",
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"probability": 0.07666666666666666,
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.357Z",
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"numforecasts": 7,
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}
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{
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"title": "How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.358Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [
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"name": "Yes",
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"probability": 0.7,
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"name": "No",
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"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
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],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.358Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 2,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.359Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 8,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "How many papers will cite \"Embedded Agency\" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?",
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"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.359Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 7,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?",
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|
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a",
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"platform": "Foretold",
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"description": "",
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"options": [],
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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z",
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"qualityindicators": {
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"numforecasts": 3,
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"stars": 2
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}
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},
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{
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"title": "When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?",
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"title": "At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?",
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"title": "At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?",
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"title": "When will the outbreak end?",
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"title": "By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?",
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"title": "By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?",
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"title": "How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?",
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"title": "By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?",
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"title": "By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?",
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"title": "By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?",
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"title": "By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?",
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"title": "By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?",
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"title": "How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?",
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"title": "By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?",
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"title": "If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?",
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"title": "When will the next UK general election be?",
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"title": "Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?",
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"title": "If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?",
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"title": "Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?",
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"title": "What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?",
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"title": "If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?",
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{
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"title": "If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?",
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{
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"title": "What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?",
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|
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8",
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